State of College and Career
Readiness in Texas:
Challenges and Opportunities
Raymund A. Paredes, Ph.D
Commissioner of Higher Education
College readiness at Texas universities has improved
across the board
92%
Percentage of TSI Ready1
University Students Direct from HS
College readiness2 has
increased among all racial and
ethnic groups:
87.7%
88%
African Americans
22 % points
Hispanics
14 % points
Whites
3 % points
84%
80.3%
80%
Fall 2003
Fall 2011
76%
Fall 2003
Fall 2011
Source: Texas Higher Education Coordinating Board
1.
2.
Percentage of TSI ready reflects % of first-time-in-college students who met college readiness standards (or were exempt) in all three areas measured.
TSI ready in all three areas among first-time-in-college students enrolling in university directly from HS
2
Two-year colleges have experienced even more
pronounced gains in college readiness
Percentage of TSI Ready1
60.0%
Community and Technical College Students
Direct from HS
51.7%
College readiness2 has
increased among all racial and
ethnic groups:
50.0%
40.0%
37.4%
30.0%
Fall 2003
Fall 2011
20.0%
African Americans
16 % points
Hispanics
18 % points
Whites
18 % points
10.0%
0.0%
Fall 2003
Fall 2011
Source: Texas Higher Education Coordinating Board
1.
2.
Percentage of TSI ready reflects % of first-time-in-college students who met college readiness standards (or were exempt) in all three areas measured.
TSI ready in all three areas among first-time-in-college students enrolling in 2-year college directly from HS
3
While gains are significant among those enrolling directly from HS,
picture is different for students that do not enroll immediately
% Ready-Non-Direct from H.S.
% Ready-Direct from H.S.
80.3%
87.7%
74.9%
65.0%
51.7%
Percentage of TSI Ready University
Students Non-Direct vs. Direct from HS
35.6% 37.4%
27.1%
Percentage of TSI Ready
Community and Technical College
Students Non-Direct vs. Direct from HS
Fall 2003
Fall 2011
Fall 2003
Fall 2011
However, too few Texas students make it through the
education pipeline to a postsecondary credential
19
of every 100 Texas 8th Graders
complete a postsecondary credential
within 11 years
11
of every 100 Hispanic 8th Graders
complete a postsecondary
credential
11
of every 100 African American 8th
Graders complete a postsecondary
credential
Source: THECB 8th Grade Cohort (Enrolled in 2001, Completed Postsecondary by FY 2011).
5
Texas has improved scores on the ACT national college readiness
assessment but lags compared to other states
50%
45%
40%
Percent of Students Meeting ACT
College Readiness Benchmarks
35%
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
21%
24% 25% 25%
28%
30% 31%
44%
38%
33%
ACT College readiness has
increased among all racial
and ethnic groups since
2008:
African
Americans
4%
points
Hispanics
4%
points
Whites
8%
points
5%
0%
6
THE CHALLENGE: Texas must create and sustain a
workforce that can support a transformational economy
4 of 5
Jobs lost during the recession affected workers with a
high school diploma or less.
Source: Center on Education & the Workforce
13 of 20
Fastest growing careers with the potential for earnings
growth require postsecondary education.
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
$21,000
Average annual wage difference for worker with a BA
degree compared to high school graduate.
Source: State Higher Education Executive Officers Association
$10,000
Average annual wage difference for worker who obtains at
least some college, a postsecondary certificate, or an
Associate’s degree compared to a high school graduate.
Source: Center on Education & the Workforce
7
Our future workforce will demand even more
postsecondary trained and educated workers
U.S. Workforce Projections by
Required Education Level, 2020
12%
46%
24%
In 1973, only 28% of all U.S.
jobs required postsecondary
education/skills. By 2020,
65% of the jobs will require
this level of education
18%
H.S. Dropout
Some college, including Certificates
59% of all jobs in Texas will
require postsecondary
training or education by
2020. Currently, 31% of
Texans have an Associate’s
degree or higher.
H.S. Grad
Associate's degree or higher
Source: Georgetown University, Center on Education and the Workforce; data in charts rounded.
8
Unfortunately, the U.S. is projected to have a mismatch
between future jobs and workforce skill/education
Difference
Demand vs. supply – 2020 projections
Millions
19.5
+5.9
43.3
44.1
+0.8
30.7
29.1
-1.6
No high school diploma
13.6
High school graduate
Some college, no degree
Includes Postsecondary
Workforce Certificates
Associate degree
17.7
Bachelor’s degree
or higher
58.0
Demand
19.6
56.5
1.9
-1.5
Supply
Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis,
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Mckinsey Global Institute analysis
9
Postsecondary workforce certificates will be in short supply, yet
represent great opportunities for quality jobs and higher wages
$35,000
Average Annual Wage by
Education Level (Women Only)
$30,000
$25,000
$20,000
$15,000
$10,000
$5,000
$-
Earning
Premium:
White
African-American
14%
11%
Hispanic
41%
HS Diploma Earnings
Certificate Earnings
Source: Georgetown University, Center on Education and the Workforce.
10
Postsecondary workforce certificates will be in short supply, yet
represent great opportunities for quality jobs and higher wages
$50,000
Average Annual Wage by
Education Level (Men Only)
$45,000
$40,000
$35,000
$30,000
$25,000
$20,000
$15,000
$10,000
$5,000
$White
Earning
Premium:
African-American
21%
27%
Hispanic
44%
HS Diploma Earnings
Certificate Earnings
Source: Georgetown University, Center on Education and the Workforce.
11
Postsecondary education, including workforce credentials, is
increasingly more important across all occupations
HS Diploma
or less
Some
College
Associate’s
degree
Bachelor’s
degree
Master’s
/Professional
/PhD
Sales & Office Support
34.1%
24.7%
13.7%
23.6%
3.8%
Blue Collar
66.2%
17.6%
8.6%
6.5%
0.9%
Food & Personal
56.5%
19.6%
10.2%
11.7%
1.7%
Managerial &
Professional Services
13.8%
13.9%
10.4%
41.3%
20.5%
Education
6.2%
7.8%
6.5%
41.5%
38.0%
Healthcare
6.0%
10.9%
28.8%
31.0%
23.6%
STEM
6.4%
10.9%
12.2%
47.6%
22.7%
Community Services
9.4%
11.9%
9.9%
46.3%
22.2%
Healthcare support
41.4%
29.5%
17.3%
9.5%
2.1%
--
1.2%
1.2%
27.7%
69.8%
35.2%
17.8%
11.8%
24.4%
10.5%
2020
Occupations
Social Science
ALL OCCUPATIONS
Source: Georgetown University, Center on Education and the Workforce Recovery: Job Growth and Education
Requirements through 2020, July 2013; percentages may not equal 100 due to rounding
12
The jobs with the greatest growth potential are also those that
require postsecondary education or training
% of Total
2020
Occupations
Postsecondary
Education
Requirement
Sales & Office Support
25.5%
66%
Blue Collar
18.6%
34%
Food & Personal
16.6%
43%
Managerial &
Professional Services
15.0%
86%
Education
6.1%
94%
Healthcare
5.1%
94%
STEM
4.6%
94%
Community Services
4.8%
91%
Healthcare support
2.8%
58%
Social Science
0.5%
100%
--
65%
2020 Occupations
These occupations are
projected to have the
highest growth rate
between now and 2020, and
require high levels of
postsecondary education
ALL OCCUPATIONS
Source: Georgetown University, Center on Education and the Workforce Recovery: Job Growth and Education
Requirements through 2020, July 2013; percentages may not equal 100 due to rounding
13
Even jobs once considered low-skill, will require higher
levels of training and expertise
“…today’s skilled factory worker is really a hybrid
of an old-school machinist and a computer
programmer….advanced manufacturing requires
a basic understanding of metallurgy, physics,
chemistry, pneumatics, electrical wiring and
computer code.”
--”Skills don’t pay the bills”, NY Times Magazine, 11/20/12
“It’s not just what is being made,
but to the degree that you make it
at all, you make it differently.”
--David Autor, economist, MIT
Employment in “high-skill”
manufacturing occupations has
increased 37% since early
1980s.
--Federal Reserve Bank of NY
14
If Texas is to compete on the international stage, we must
improve educational attainment across the board
25 to 34
45 to 54
42
50
47
48
60
35 to 44
55 to 64
56
57
65
70
32
40
22
30
20
10
Percent of Adults with an Associate Degree or Higher by Age Group –
Texas, Mexico, U.S. & Top 5 OECD Countries by Educational Attainment for 25-34 year olds
0
Korea
Japan
Canada
Ireland
Norway
Source: OECD, Education at a Glance, 2012. American Community Survey, 2010
United
States
Texas
Mexico
15
The foundation for the future Texas workforce rests on
three critical building blocks
A rigorous public education
system is a fundamental
building block for our
future workforce and must
provide a strong
foundation to prepare all
students for a lifetime of
learning and training
required of a rapidly
evolving global economy.
16
HB 1296 requires collaboration with state agencies to
determine state’s workforce needs
• THECB to collaborate with the TWC and other state
agencies concerning Texas's projected workforce needs
– Agencies are required to collect relevant information and make
five-year projections concerning the workforce needs of this
state and the educational attainment and training of persons
projected to enter the state workforce
– Requires Board, based on the projections, to:
• Identify the types and levels of education, training, and skills
that are needed to meet the state's future workforce needs
• Make recommendations concerning the expansion of
existing programs or the development of new programs at
public and private postsecondary educational institutions in
this state as necessary to meet the projected workforce
needs
17
The curriculum changes in HB 5 create challenges and
opportunities for the future of Texas
NEXT STEPS
• Collaboration among the SBOE, TEA, TWC, THECB, institutions of higher
education and the business community is more important than ever to
ensure the curriculum sustains a level of rigor necessary to support
our future economy
• Guidelines developed by the SBOE and agencies will help guide local
districts in implementing local credit course options and college
preparatory courses
• Implementation will require early and more personal advising on
already strained school resources
• Students should continue to be encouraged to take Algebra II given it
continues to be a key marker in college success
• Higher education must ensure teacher training meets the demands of
the changing world
18
Algebra II is offered in an applied manner in other areas
of the country
Applied Algebra II Offerings and
CTE Math Pathways Around the Country
State
Vermont
53.7%
Indiana
53.7%
Oregon
Course/
Pathway
Description
Applied
Algebra II
Applied Algebra II is offered to 11th and 12th grade high school students
atpermission
two-yearof an instructor. This course employs an interactive,
with the
collegesto teaching advanced topics in high school mathematics.
applied approach
at universities
Mathematics
Pathways
Two pathways are offered for school districts to choose: a traditional
pathway and an integrated pathway. The integrated pathway allows
students to see the connections and interrelationships between three
domains of math (Algebra, Geometry, and Statistics/Probability). In some
cases, integrated textbooks present material in applied situations.
Math-in-CTE
This project brings together math and CTE teachers to identify
opportunities and create resources for adding real-world relevance in math
courses.
19
A positive step toward improving teacher education to
meet the demands of the changing world
Texas Teacher Residency Program, HB 1752
•
The THECB will select, through a competitive process, a public
institution of higher education that has developed a commitment
to investing in teacher education to implement the program.
•
The selected institution must partner with an area school district or
open-enrollment charter school to provide employment to
residents in the residency program.
•
The program must be designed to award teaching residents a
master’s degree and lead to teacher certification.
•
83rd Texas Legislature, Regular Session appropriated $1.3M in FY
14-15
20
Current TSI practices will change in fall 2013
CURRENT
• Texas Success Initiative authorized multiple assessments to
establish student readiness using state approved cut-scores in
math, reading, and writing.
• Variation across institutions in the assessments and cut-scores
used
NEW (starting fall 2013)
• One statewide assessment instrument
• One standard that cannot be raised by institutions of higher
education
21
The development of the new TSI assessment has been a
collaborative process inclusive of a wide-range of stakeholders
Texas Legislature
approved HB 1244 which
gives the Coordinating
Board the authority to
adopt one TSI assessment
2011
Statewide
implementation of
new TSI
assessment
2012
Faculty leaders and
assessment experts
developed the
infrastructure for the
state’s first diagnostic
TSI assessment.
THECB staff provided
statewide informational
sessions for institutions
2013
The new TSI assessment will be the first of its
kind in the country
 Aligns to the Texas College and Career Readiness
Standards
 Aligns to national ABE standards and will diagnose
accurate placement
 Includes diagnostic component to identify specific student
weaknesses
 Board approved no-cost contract with The College Board
 Computer-Adaptive Assessment
 Low cost for institutions ($11)
23
Advise TX is improving access to personal advising and
providing students an in-depth look at postsecondary options
120 advisors serving high-need high schools
In 60 school districts
Where over 234,000 high school students attend
24
Advise TX is training advisors to inform students of the new
curriculum options due to HB 5
• Advisers will receive four weeks of intensive pre-service training prior to
their placement in selected high-need high schools across the state.
• Advise TX college advisers not only receive the required training
components of the National College Advising Corps, but will also receive
training related to HB 5 including information relating to:
 Endorsement options available to students
 New graduation plans and what they mean for higher education
enrollment and state financial aid eligibility
25