What is Progressive?
Just …….and ……effective/economic/leveraged.
Progressive Transportation
Progressive Transportation=
Environmental + socially just + broad
mobility benefit + highly leveraged
returns.
Cleve Stockmeyer
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Leveraged:
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Leveraged
• New platforms for individual and social returns
for decades or centuries. RR ROW, Bridges,
tunnels, canals, yield $$ daily to users also $$ to
economy & also shape density/pattern of
development in long term.
• In 1930’s progressives owned economic
arguments and wielded them against the right.
Today we progressives play “defense” on
economic arguments instead of “offense.”
• TVA, Coulee Dam.
• Lake Washington Ship Canal.
• Alps Tunnel:
21 miles. $3.5 billion. Munich-Milan in
2.5 hours, 150 high speed trains a day.
About 25% of n-s length of Switz.
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How are we doing in Pugetopolis?
• “Morass of bad planning & traffic
congestion” - Bula, Vancouver Sun 5/5
• No rapid transit system. System (roads,
codes, invisible $ loads) is designed for cars,
congestion and CO2
• We were warned -- 40 years to act on GW.
• Soak the poor tax system -- $2000 burden
on poor.
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Mobility and Congestion
• 2.8 million here now
• 1.5 million population growth in planning
window
• (50% growth) / (50% capac. increase) =
no change in congestion.
• (50% growth) / (0 % capac. increase) =??
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R’n’T
What are we planning?
• 2005:
• 2006:
• 2007:
No monorail
($2.2B, 14 miles, 23 stations)
No Viaduct ($5B, 2 miles)
Roads & Transit ($17B)
Roads = $7B
partial funding
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Partial 520
509
2 lanes 405
Monroe ext.
Misc. other
Rail = $10B
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Adding to Roads: Results
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Road Investments Graph
• Adds infrastructure of sprawl, congestion & CO2
• Without adding to ALL roads, no mobility benefit.
• Car tab & sales tax – soak the poor & use car tabs
for roads now.
• No systemic plan - un-integrated -- 509 goes in,
Viaduct goes down.
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Lesson:
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Comparative Rail Transit 401
• Fresh Freeways: Highly leveraged
• Matured, developed freeways: spending
more causes harm -- negative mobility and
social returns.
• Adding cars does not get you to work faster.
• “Digs the global warming hole deeper” Sierra Club
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PSRX
Paris, France
Puget Sound
Regional Express
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Full Paris Metro System
Washington, DC
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Full New York Area System
New York City
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Montreal, Canada
Barcelona, Spain
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Stockholm, Sweden
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Sapporo, Japan
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Tashkent, Russia
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A “Pattern Language” of Rail
Urban rail: universally successful “gov’t
program” (like sewers and electricity).
Three key concepts:
• Broad Geographic Scope
• Flow Capacity of Lines
• Efficient, Planned Construction
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2. Rapid Hi Flow Capacity of
Lines
1. Regional Scope
• 9 to 12 lines
• A central hub
• Densest neighborhoods are linked
• Long Trains - 6 to 8 cars
• Short Headways - 2 minutes
• No mixing with autos, freight or kids.
(also allows automated cheaper operation.)
(Express and/or intercity lines if possible).
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Efficient, Planned,
Integrated Construction
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Benefits
 Plan whole system from the start, not “as you go”.
 One government so they don’t fight and burden
the project.
 Add fresh corridors/don’t remodel existing assets.
Remodeling is a “false economy”: you lose the
prior use capacity and have inefficiency in
construction from retrofitting. You are deleveraging a prior investment.
• A Full System Creates a Ridable Region.
• Huge capacity: 900,000 trips a day
• Fast trips + full scope = very useful.
Becomes the primary system.
• From-all / to-all / for-all synergy.
Mobility and political synergy – no one is
left out.
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Graph of
Full Rail System Benefits
Individual & Social Returns
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Fight CO2.
Density makes future transportation easier.
Economic growth & niche finding
Users save ~$5,000 a year or $100,000.
People with needs get to more jobs.
Lasts 100 + years, new platform
Benefits are
bundled
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Where are we today?
ST2
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• Sounder
– 5 trains a day (BNSF owns & uses tracks).
– $1.2B capital
– $100 total subsidy per trip, $20 operating
3 lines
$10B / $37B w/ finance
By 2027
23 stations
• ST1 - 21 miles Partial line, SeaTac to UW
@ 2016
• ST2 - 50 more miles. Finish 2 lines N and S
and add E @ 2027
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Regional Scope?
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Flow thru capacity and speed?
3 spokes not 8 or 12
No central hub (King St., not central DT)
1/6 or 15% coverage
Dense, close-in neighborhoods left out
300,000 trips a day when done. R’n’T
overall: when done, congestion 2 or 3 times
worse than today.
• In street for 4 miles mixing with vehicles, bikes,
pedestrians, slows trains.
• 4-car trains not 6-8. Permanent loss of 1/3 of
potential flow capacity.
• 6 minute headways not 2 minutes. Further loss of
capacity. “Skinny pipes” for regional main line.
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Efficient Construction, continued:
Efficient Construction?
Piecemeal planning / ignore low fruit:
New 520: build rail from start. Don’t retrofit and plan links later.
BNSF: 47 miles existing ROW/tracks. SC, Renton, Bellevue,
Remodel MLK, bus tunnel, I-90:
De-leverages prior assets, lose capacity
and incurr ineff. retrofit constr. cost.
Kirkland, connections w/ I90 light rail and 520.
Cost: Sounder was $1.2B for 5-6 trains/day. Adding 2 lanes 405
Renton to Bellevue is $900M which would yield 5 miles rail.
Closer neighborhoods left out while
outer tails not built for 30-40 years.
Limited no. stations in N. Seattle.
Green Line: de-leveraging. GL: $2.2B, 23 stations.
ST2: $10B, 23 stations. GL revenue shortfall was $15M/year & could
have been solved. The $3.4 billion 2-mile Viaduct Tunnel went up to
$4.4 B 6 months prior to vote, without giving pause.
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R‘n’T Financing
What to do?
• Sales tax burdens people with needs.
• Unfair regional burden for core of state
transportation system.
• Car tab tax lowered 1.4 to 0.8, shifts from
transit to roads.
• Discussion of tolls very limited so far.
• Unfair to let roads wither decades then
catch up with sales and car tab tax.
Roads: “Just don’t do it this day and age” – Sierra.
We need 80% reduction in CO2 .
Billions for roads causes more CO2, sprawl, yields
no mobility benefit & moves us backwards.
Transit:
Revamp it, plan it, build full system in 25 years.
Multiple spokes plus hub. Aim for 900,000 trips a day
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Impossible?
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Financeable?
Washington State population and GDP =
Switzerland or Sweden.
12th of 50 States in GDP per capita; in mid
rank for taxes/personal income.
Tolls everywhere $billion 24
Shift from roads (int. tunnel) 6
15 cent gas tax
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TOTAL =
$43 billion
• Works everywhere
• DC: 25 years, $12B
86 stations, 106 miles, 750,000 trips a day.
DC had pop. we have now, when they started.
Created density & mini-downtowns:
de-sprawling effect.
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Barriers Are Mental
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Also Need
• Different standards.: Mayor Nickels on Viaduct
Tunnel: “We have enough money to get started.”
• Denial of need, solution and the cost.
• Protect the rich: preserve their $5000/yr bonus to
live in Washington rather than Idaho.
• “We threaten to punish voters by being dumb”
• Governments fight change & protect their turf.
• Zoning throughout system to prevent sprawl
effects.
• Building code and other changes to stop
subsidizing cars.
• Major bus improvements.
Crosstown & neighborhood loops; shorter
headways; longer service (18 hours / day).
• Promote electric cars.
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Congestion “Solved”
• 900,000 trips/day w/ system benefits =
“a rideable region” -Put away your highway map!
• Address global warming.
• Leapfrog 4-6 decades deferred investment
• Add mobility platform “over” congestion.
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Global warming:
We were warned
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“We couldn’t afford a three-legged
stool, so we compromised.”
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