PICK 4 TO SCORE
By Frank R. Scatoni (on Twitter @ScatoniSureShot)
12/26/2014
OVERVIEW
It’s opening day of the Santa Anita Winter Meet, and what a doozy of a card, with three stakes
races and plenty of creative ways to invest your wagering dollar. But perhaps the best way to
spread some holiday cheer is by playing today’s $500,000 Guaranteed Late Pick 4, which
features the $300K La Brea (G1), the $200K Mathis Brothers Mile (G2), the $300K Malibu (G1),
and a wide-open MSW on the turf for 2-year-olds.
The key to today’s Pick 4 is deciding on what to do with two horses that look to have a
pretty strong edge over their competition: Taris (2/1) in the La Brea (G1) and Shared Belief (4/5)
in the Malibu (G1). While both of these horses are must-uses, the question remains: are they
both singles? I think it’s wise to take a two-pronged approach here, where we single those
runners in one iteration of our Pick 4 play (and hope to catch some longshots), while we craft
another ticket that embraces some chaos should one of those two heavy faves falter.
PICK 4
LEG 1 (R6):
Today’s first leg is a cracking edition of the La Brea (G1), a 7-furlong affair for 3-year-old fillies.
The awesome and brilliant #1 TARIS (2/1) is by far the horse to beat off her scintillating win in
the Raven Run (G2) at Keeneland in October. I see no reason why she won’t continue her
ascendency in this division, but several hurdles have cropped up on her rise to superstardom.
First off, she’s changing barns. While Simon Callaghan is a capable trainer, former
trainer Todd Beattie is the man responsible for this gal’s recent success. But the biggest
concerns appear in the race itself: first, she has to break from the rail, a difficult task for any
runner at the 7-furlong distance; and second, this frontrunner will have to work hard every step
of the way, with plenty of other speed—California speed!—entered in this elongated dash.
While #1 TARIS remains the horse to beat based on form and figures, those three knocks are
enough to make me want to look elsewhere for a few back-up possibilities.
#3 THANK YOU MARYLOU (6/1) is a 7-furlong specialist who knows how to kick it into
high gear just when the 6-furlong speedsters start gasping for air. Her third-place finish in the
Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Sprint (G1) was a solid effort against one of the toughest female
sprinters we’ve seen the last few years, Judy the Beauty. That effort was against elders, and
today she gets to race against her own age group. She also fires fresh, which is the case today.
#9 SAM’S SISTER (8/1) is another one who projects a good tracking trip behind several
speedsters. I like that this gal has faced elders in every one of her starts, and I especially like
that she started her career with three straight victories. I’m willing to forgive her last race, a
poor effort in a 5-furlong turf dash at Del Mar, since I’m guessing she tried that surface only
because there weren’t any main-track races for this N3X-eligible runner. She’ll need to prove
her class here, but at a big price, she’s worth a shot.
Other contenders if you’re spreading are: #4 AWESOME BABY (9/2), #7 STONETASTIC
(4/1), and #10 JOJO WARRIOR (4/1).
LEG 2 (R7):
Today’s Mathis Brothers Mile (G2) seems like a very competitive race on paper—but more
importantly, it seems like a very fair race, with just the right mix of forwardly placed horses and
off-the-pace runners. Like most turf races, it’s going to come down to who gets the best trip,
since this is a very evenly matched field of 3-year-olds. My advice to you would be to spread
here, especially if you’re singling Taris and Shared Belief in legs 1 and 3.
Two hard-trying runners that should get nice forwardly placed trips are #4 ALERT BAY
(6/1) and #5 SAWYER’S HILL (12/1). Both horses always give honest accounts of themselves,
and both should be square prices in this very deep field.
#7 HEART TO HEART (5/2) has to be considered as an East Coast invader, but this oneway frontrunner seems a little vulnerable in this spot since he should face pace pressure every
step of the way.
Two off-the-pace runners I’m interested in are #10 LONG ON VALUE (5/1), recent
vanquisher of the competitive Twilight Derby (G2), and #12 TALCO (FR) (10/1), who always
manages to be running late, and who should enjoy the cutback from 1-1/8 miles to today’s flat
mile.
Other contenders are: #1 PATRIOTS RULE (15/1), #9 HOME RUN KITTEN (6/1), and #11
AWESOME RETURN (10/1).
LEG 3 (R8):
The 7-furlong Malibu (G1), for 3-year-olds, has long been one of the most interesting races of
the calendar year, and this year’s renewal is no different. Of course, all eyes will be on the
extremely talented #8 SHARED BELIEF (4/5), whose only loss came at the hands of Bob Baffert’s
Bayern in the controversial Breeders’ Cup Classic (G1), where he got the worst of it at the start,
which was more Roller Derby than horse race. Unfortunately for this guy, he’s going to have to
prove his mettle against Baffert yet again—but this time, Baffert is throwing four runners at this
talented gelding. SHARED BELIEF is certainly the most accomplished runner in the race, but it’s
hard to ignore Baffert’s quadrumvirate. So which one is the right Baffert? Of his four runners,
I’m most intrigued by #2 CHITU (4/1) and #3 INDIANAPOLIS (6/1).
#2 CHITU (4/1) was a cut below the top 3-year-olds on the Triple Crown trail, but this
son of Henny Hughes is bred to be a crack sprinter, and he showed this pedigree power by
impressively dispatching older rivals in the 7-furlong $100K Damascus back in October.
#3 INDIANAPOLIS (6/1) was a perfect three-for-three in his short career before trying
the best sprinters in the world in the Breeders’ Cup Sprint (G1). He was overmatched that day,
but the fact that Baffert thought enough of him to test his ability in that race makes me think
we have yet to see the best of this runner. One thing to look for (though it won’t help us in the
Pick 4) is to look for front wraps, which he wore for the first time at the Breeders’ Cup. If the
wraps are off, upgrade this guy’s chances.
LEG 4 (R9):
I’ve always said these 2-year-old juvenile turf races in So Cal are extremely formful, but this one
could be a different kettle of fish since there are no real standouts on paper. For that reason,
I’m going to spread, using a few second-time starters and a few other obvious-looking runners.
Of the second-time starters, I’ll give a look to #1 RUE DE CRY (12/1), who should improve on
the switch to turf and with the added distance; #3 DEA (12/1), another one routing on turf for
the first time and getting a positive jock change; and #6 ERTE (10/1), a speedy sort who should
work out a good trip on the stretchout. Two obvious runners I’d also include are: #5
SCATTAGIRL (6/1), who continues to improve; and #7 FOOLISH WAYS (IRE) (3/1), who gets
major class relief.
STRATEGY
I think it makes sense to single both TARIS and SHARED BELIEF and spread in the other legs,
hoping to catch a longshot for a decent little payoff; but I’ll also play another ticket that
embraces chaos, using some alternates in those fave-heavy races along with more targeted
selections in the supporting races.
SUGGESTED WAGER
$.50 P4: 1/4,5,7,10,12/8/1,3,5,6,7 ($12.50)
$.50 P4: 1,3,9/5,10/2,3,8/5,7 ($18)