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Jaeger, David A.; Paserman, Marco Daniele
Working Paper
The cycle of violence? An empirical analysis of
fatalities in the Palestinian-Israeli conflict
IZA Discussion Papers, No. 1808
Provided in Cooperation with:
Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA)
Suggested Citation: Jaeger, David A.; Paserman, Marco Daniele (2005) : The cycle of violence?
An empirical analysis of fatalities in the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, IZA Discussion Papers, No.
1808
This Version is available at:
http://hdl.handle.net/10419/33236
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DISCUSSION PAPER SERIES
IZA DP No. 1808
The Cycle of Violence? An Empirical Analysis of
Fatalities in the Palestinian-Israeli Conflict
David A. Jaeger
M. Daniele Paserman
October 2005
Forschungsinstitut
zur Zukunft der Arbeit
Institute for the Study
of Labor
The Cycle of Violence?
An Empirical Analysis of Fatalities
in the Palestinian-Israeli Conflict
David A. Jaeger
College of William and Mary
and IZA Bonn
M. Daniele Paserman
Hebrew University, CEPR
and IZA Bonn
Discussion Paper No. 1808
October 2005
IZA
P.O. Box 7240
53072 Bonn
Germany
Phone: +49-228-3894-0
Fax: +49-228-3894-180
Email: [email protected]
Any opinions expressed here are those of the author(s) and not those of the institute. Research
disseminated by IZA may include views on policy, but the institute itself takes no institutional policy
positions.
The Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA) in Bonn is a local and virtual international research center
and a place of communication between science, politics and business. IZA is an independent nonprofit
company supported by Deutsche Post World Net. The center is associated with the University of Bonn
and offers a stimulating research environment through its research networks, research support, and
visitors and doctoral programs. IZA engages in (i) original and internationally competitive research in
all fields of labor economics, (ii) development of policy concepts, and (iii) dissemination of research
results and concepts to the interested public.
IZA Discussion Papers often represent preliminary work and are circulated to encourage discussion.
Citation of such a paper should account for its provisional character. A revised version may be
available directly from the author.
IZA Discussion Paper No. 1808
October 2005
ABSTRACT
The Cycle of Violence? An Empirical Analysis of
Fatalities in the Palestinian-Israeli Conflict*
This paper studies the dynamics of violence in the Palestinian-Israeli conflict since the
outbreak of the Second (or “Al-Aqsa”) Intifada in September 2000, during which more than
3,300 Palestinians and more than 1,000 Israelis have been killed. The conflict has followed
an uneven pattern, with periods of high levels of violence and periods of relative calm. Using
data on the number of deaths occurring each day between September 2000 and January
2005, we estimate reaction functions for both Israelis and Palestinians and find evidence of
unidirectional Granger causality from Palestinian violence to Israeli violence, but not vice
versa. This finding is consistent whether we look only at the incidence of fatalities or whether
we look at the level of fatalities, and is robust to the specification of the lag structure and the
level of time aggregation. We find little evidence that violence on either side has a direct
deterrent or incapacitation effect. We do find, however, that successful assassination
attempts do reduce the number of subsequent Israeli fatalities. We conclude that, despite the
popular perception that Palestinians and Israelis are engaged in “tit-for-tat” violence, there is
no evidence to support that notion.
JEL Classification:
Keywords:
C32, D71, D74, H56
Intifada, terrorism, Granger causality
Corresponding author:
David A. Jaeger
Department of Economics
College of William and Mary
Williamsburg, VA 23187-8795
USA
E-mail: [email protected]
*
We thank Tatiana Slobodnitsky, Tamar Roth, Yaron Aronshtam, Eran Ben-Ari, and Lisa Andruyszyn
for outstanding research assistance, Suhair Abdi and Yael Handelsman of B’Tselem for discussions
about data as well as providing data on suicide bombings, Maj. Gen. (ret.) Netzach Mashiach for
providing us the data on the separation barrier, and Noam Zussman for helpful comments and for
providing us the data on assassination attempts. We also thank Joshua Angrist, Daniel Hamermesh,
Stephen Cecchetti, Esteban Klor and seminar participants at IZA, CERGE-EI, the Max Planck Institute
for Human Development, RWI-Essen, the Tinbergen Institute, Hebrew University, the ENS program at
the Samuel Neaman Institute, Tel-Aviv University, the NBER Summer Institute, and the University of
Wisconsin for comments on preliminary results. David Jaeger acknowledges financial support from the
Alexander von Humboldt Stiftung and IZA. Daniele Paserman acknowledges financial support from the
Samuel Neaman Institute at the Technion.
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Table 1
Demographic Distribution of Fatalities for Israelis and Palestinians
Israelis
N
Palestinians
N
Share
Share
All
994
Total Number of Fatalities
3,244
Females
310
.312
157
.048
Age
Children (0-17)
Young Adults (18-23)
Young Adults (24-29)
Adults (30-59)
Elderly (60 or older)
Age unknown
109
303
117
356
102
7
.110
.305
.118
.358
.103
.007
636
1,019
747
689
50
103
.196
.314
.230
.212
.015
.032
Civilians
690
Total Number of Fatalities
2,949
Females
277
.401
157
.053
Age
Children (0-17)
Young Adults (18-23)
Young Adults (24-29)
Adults (30-59)
Elderly (60 or older)
Age unknown
109
78
76
318
102
7
.158
.113
.110
.461
.148
.010
635
925
642
619
47
81
.215
.314
.218
.210
.016
.027
Note: The Israeli count includes all civilians and members of the security forces killed
during this period, either in Israel (within the 1948 borders) or in the Territories, as well as
foreign civilians killed by Palestinians. The Palestinian count includes all civilians and members
of the security forces, as well as foreign civilians killed by Israeli security forces and civilians.
Source: Authors' tabulations of data from B'Tselem from 29 September 2000 to 15
January 2005.
Table 2
Number and Daily Rate of Fatalities, Israelis and Palestinians, by Period
Barak
Sharon Gov't
Government pre-9/11/2001
9/12/2001ODS
ODSRoadmap
RoadmapCeasefire
Ceasefire
PostCeasefire
TOTAL
29.9.20006.2.2001
7.02.200111.09.2001
12.09.200128.03.2002
29.03.200224.06.2002
25.06.2002
28.06.2003
29.06.200321.08.2003
22.08.200315.01.2005
29.09.200015.01.2005
(131 days)
(217 days)
(198 days)
(88 days)
(369 days)
(51 days)
(516 days)
(1570 days)
Israelis
Fatalities
51
116
218
160
241
7
201
994
Fatalities/Day
Daily Incidence of Fatalities
.389
.237
.535
.212
1.101
.318
1.818
.341
.653
.187
.137
.098
.390
.107
.633
.190
Share by Gunfire
Share by Suicide Attacks
.764
.000
.379
.422
.423
.440
.275
.613
.432
.461
.286
.571
.289
.587
.407
.479
Palestinians
Fatalities
308
206
568
374
730
10
1,048
3,244
2.351
.664
.949
.479
2.869
.672
4.250
.830
1.978
.650
.196
.137
2.031
.609
2.066
.610
Share by Gunfire
Share by Helicopter, Aircraft or Tank Shelling
.929
.052
.680
.277
.754
.151
.850
.099
.699
.221
.600
.200
.676
.306
.739
.210
Targeted Killings
.046
.151
.049
.048
.129
.000
.100
.089
Fatalities/Day
Daily Incidence of Fatalities
Source: Authors' tabulations of data from B'Tselem from 29 September 2000 to 15 January 2005.
Table 3
Daily Israeli Reaction Function, Incidence and Number of Fatalities
Israeli Fatalities
t-1
t-2
t-3
t-4
t-5
t-6
t-7
t-8
t-9
t-10
t-11
t-12
t-13
t-14
Palestinian Fatalities
t-1
t-2
t-3
t-4
t-5
t-6
t-7
t-8
t-9
t-10
t-11
t-12
t-13
t-14
Incidence of Palestinian Fatalities
Coef.
S.E.
Coef.
S.E.
Number of Palestinian Fatalities
Coef.
S.E.
Coef.
S.E.
.076
-.008
.040
.055
.068
-.024
.012
.044
.056
.041
.017
-.023
-.012
-.006
.030
.031
.030
.030
.030
.031
.031
.031
.030
.030
.031
.031
.031
.031
.050
.026
.065
.026
-.017
.026
.062
.026
.064
.026
.046
.026
.001
.026
.009
.026
.047
.026
.040
.026
.015
.026
.052
.026
.012
.026
.002
.026
0.33973 0.03353
Periods
Barak-Sharon
Sharon-9/11
9/12-ODS
ODS-Roadmap
Roadmap-Ceasefire
Ceasefire
Post-Ceasefire
2
! for joint sig. of Israeli fatalities (p-value)
R2
.030
.031
.030
.030
.030
.031
.031
.031
.030
.030
.031
.031
.031
.031
0.134
0.063
0.080
0.042
0.213
0.038
0.048
0.134
-0.034
0.029
-0.086
-0.011
0.013
-0.000
0.067
0.050
0.044
0.071
0.129
0.043
0.045
0.137
0.049
0.036
0.043
0.042
0.038
0.035
0.128
0.066
0.096
0.051
0.223
0.050
0.054
0.138
-0.023
0.049
-0.070
0.002
0.024
0.008
0.066
0.051
0.046
0.069
0.128
0.045
0.046
0.134
0.047
0.037
0.043
0.042
0.037
0.035
.026
.045
-.041
.039
.045
.026
-.022
-.007
.034
.022
-.004
.038
-.006
-.020
.026
.026
.026
.026
.026
.027
.026
.026
.026
.026
.026
.026
.026
.026
0.178
0.105
0.146
0.024
0.047
0.006
0.025
-0.017
-0.051
-0.017
0.037
0.013
-0.016
0.021
0.051
0.032
0.111
0.049
0.035
0.036
0.035
0.033
0.030
0.027
0.023
0.030
0.024
0.026
0.164
0.100
0.140
0.020
0.043
-0.005
0.009
-0.024
-0.050
-0.019
0.035
0.011
-0.027
0.001
0.049
0.031
0.110
0.048
0.034
0.036
0.036
0.033
0.030
0.026
0.023
0.030
0.024
0.026
ref.
Length of Separation Barrier (10 km)
Constant
.071
-.001
.044
.060
.078
-.010
.014
.047
.072
.054
.031
-.004
.008
.006
.274
.038
-.151
-.034
.066
-.001
-.437
-.063
.055
.052
.059
.048
.104
.149
.042
.082
.397
.070
ref.
-0.964
0.288
-0.162
0.355
-0.156
0.570
-0.586
0.298
-2.406
0.569
-2.741
0.941
0.617
0.193
1.500
0.544
0.587
0.361
39.30
(<.001)
43.50
(<.001)
23.93
(.047)
24.30
(.042)
.075
.102
.217
.233
Note: Dependent variable is an indicator for any Palestinian fatalities in columns 1 and 2 and number of Palestinian
fatalities in columns 3 and 4. The right hand side variables are indicators for whether there were any Palestinian/Israeli
fatalities in days t-1 to t-14 (columns 1 and 2), and counts of Palestinian/Israeli fatalities in columns 3 and 4.
Columns 2 and 4 also include day-of-week indicator variables. Heteroskedasticity-consistent standard errors.
Source: Authors' tabulations of data from B'Tselem from 29 September 2000 to 15 January 2005.
Table 4
Daily Palestinian Reaction Function, Incidence and Number of Fatalities
Incidence of Israeli Fatalities
Coef.
S.E.
Coef.
S.E.
Number of Israeli Fatalities
Coef. S.E.
Coef. S.E.
Palestinian Fatalities
t-1
t-2
t-3
t-4
t-5
t-6
t-7
t-8
t-9
t-10
t-11
t-12
t-13
t-14
-.011
.020
.007
-.022
.030
-.022
-.016
.010
-.010
.007
.012
-.014
.013
.023
.020
.020
.021
.021
.021
.021
.021
.021
.021
.020
.021
.021
.020
.020
-.009
.022
.006
-.023
.031
-.027
-.020
.012
-.009
.004
.008
-.014
.006
.016
.020
.020
.021
.021
.021
.021
.021
.021
.021
.021
.021
.021
.020
.021
0.023
0.023
-0.003
-0.016
0.014
-0.008
-0.029
0.062
0.003
0.006
0.008
-0.024
-0.014
0.030
0.019
0.024
0.016
0.018
0.030
0.020
0.016
0.024
0.022
0.021
0.018
0.013
0.018
0.024
0.026
0.027
0.000
-0.009
0.014
-0.011
-0.029
0.064
0.005
0.009
0.012
-0.026
-0.020
0.027
0.020
0.024
0.016
0.017
0.029
0.021
0.016
0.023
0.022
0.021
0.018
0.013
0.018
0.024
Israeli Fatalities
t-1
t-2
t-3
t-4
t-5
t-6
t-7
t-8
t-9
t-10
t-11
t-12
t-13
t-14
.068
.058
.025
.021
.058
.038
.051
.024
-.005
.068
.027
.029
.009
.046
.027
.027
.027
.026
.028
.027
.027
.026
.026
.028
.026
.026
.026
.027
.055
.046
.014
.009
.047
.026
.030
.015
-.015
.058
.019
.022
-.000
.025
.027
.027
.026
.026
.028
.028
.028
.026
.026
.028
.026
.027
.026
.027
0.086
0.004
0.024
0.042
0.003
-0.005
0.011
-0.010
0.011
0.023
0.013
0.009
0.059
0.025
0.034
0.020
0.021
0.045
0.016
0.025
0.028
0.017
0.023
0.026
0.023
0.015
0.047
0.027
0.072
-0.012
0.008
0.026
-0.013
-0.021
-0.013
-0.024
-0.006
0.010
-0.001
-0.007
0.046
0.002
0.033
0.021
0.021
0.044
0.017
0.027
0.029
0.016
0.023
0.025
0.023
0.016
0.044
0.028
Periods
Barak-Sharon
Sharon-9/11
9/12-ODS
ODS-Roadmap
Roadmap-Ceasefire
Ceasefire
Post-Ceasefire
ref.
Length of Separation Barrier (10 km)
Constant
2
! for joint sig. of Palestinian fatalities (p-value)
R2
.076
.032
-.021
.053
.053
-.042
-.155
-.187
.048
.049
.064
.043
.088
.112
.058
.062
.092
.059
ref.
0.256 0.173
0.617 0.211
1.168 0.437
0.333 0.170
0.619 0.518
1.390 1.054
0.293
0.091
-0.803
0.583
-0.082
0.162
7.89
(.895)
7.80
(.899)
15.73
(.330)
17.50
(.230)
.051
.074
.041
.064
Note: Dependent variable is an indicator for any Israeli fatalities in columns 1 and 2 and number of Israli fatalities
in columns 3 and 4. The right hand side variables are indicators for whether there were any Palestinian/Israeli
fatalities in days t-1 to t-14 (columns 1 and 2), and counts of Palestinian/Israeli fatalities in columns 3 and 4.
Columns 2 and 4 also include day-of-week indicator variables. Heteroskedasticity-consistent standard errors.
Source: Authors' tabulations of data from B'Tselem from 29 September 2000 to 15 January 2005.
Table 5
Granger Causality Tests for Different Lag Structures
(!2 statistics, p-values in parentheses)
Lag Structure
(own, opposite)
Israeli Reaction Function
Incidence
Levels
Palestinian Reaction Function
Incidence
Levels
(4,4)
19.69
(.001)
9.95
(.041)
2.77
(.598)
3.04
(.552)
(7,4)
29.34
(<.001)
15.32
(.032)
7.62
(.367)
3.67
(.817)
(14,4)
53.15
(<.001)
23.22
(.057)
9.77
(.779)
17.54
(.229)
(21,4)
73.58
(<.001)
27.92
(.142)
16.58
(.680)
20.40
(.496)
(7,7)
27.21
(<.001)
15.32
(.032)
6.54
(.478)
4.91
(.670)
(14,7)
47.21
(<.001)
23.62
(.051)
8.54
(.859)
18.29
(.194)
(21,7)
66.07
(<.001)
27.57
(.153)
15.68
(.736)
21.01
(.459)
(14,14)
43.50
(<.001)
24.30
(.042)
7.80
(.899)
17.50
(.230)
(21,14)
58.72
(<.001)
27.69
(.149)
14.43
(.808)
20.98
(.460)
(21,21)
57.38
(<.001)
26.16
(.200)
14.48
(.805)
20.56
(.486)
Note: The entries in the table are the test statistics and p-values for the joint
hypothesis that all lags of own fatalities are equal to zero. All models include
period and day-of-week indicators as well as the length of separation barrier as
regressors.
Source: Authors' tabulations of data from B'Tselem from 29 September 2000 to
15 January 2005.
Table 6
Effect of Time Aggregation on
Granger Causality Tests: Levels
(!2 statistics, p-values in parentheses)
Israeli
Reaction Func.
Palestinian
Reaction Func.
2 Lags
4.58
(.101)
2.48
(.289)
4 Lags
9.19
(.056)
2.74
(.602)
1 Lag
0.04
(.838)
1.42
(.492)
2 Lags
1.96
(.162)
3.10
(.212)
3.83
(.050)
1.04
(.309)
Frequency of Data
Weekly
Bi-Weekly
Monthly
1 Lag
Note: The entries in the table are the test statistics and
p-values for the joint hypothesis that all lags of own
fatalities are equal to zero. All models include period and
day-of-week indicators as well as the length of separation
barrier as regressors.
Source: Authors' tabulations of data from B'Tselem from
29 September 2000 to 15 January 2005.
Table 7
Smoothed Reaction Functions
In days prior to day t:
Number of days with own fatalities (incidence) or
Number of own fatalities (levels)
Incidence
Coef.
S.E.
Levels
Coef.
S.E.
Israeli Reaction Function (Palestinian Fatalities)
t-1 to t-7
t-8 to t-14
.038
.031
!2 for sig. of own fatalities (p-value)
R2
.010
.011
0.113
0.009
0.033
0.017
29.96
(<.001)
11.43
(.003)
.085
.190
Palestinian Reaction Function (Israeli Fatalities)
t-1 to t-7
t-8 to t-14
!2 for sig. of own fatalities (p-value)
R2
-.003
.003
.007
.007
0.004
0.006
0.005
0.005
0.25
(.881)
2.56
(.278)
.064
.041
Note: Dependent variables are daily incidence of fatalities on opposite side or daily
number of fatalities on opposite side. All models estimated with ordinary least
squares and include lagged own smoothed lags, period and day-of-week indicators as
well as the length of the separation barrier as regressors. Heteroskedasticity-consistent
standard errors.
Source: Authors' tabulations of data from B'Tselem from 29 September 2000 to
15 January 2005.
Table 8
Smoothed Reaction Functions: Before, During, and After Operation Defensive Shield
In days prior to day t:
Number of days with own fatalities (incidence) or
Number of own fatalities (levels)
Israeli Reaction Function
(Palestinian Fatalities)
Incidence
Levels
Coef.
S.E.
Coef.
S.E.
Palestinian Reaction Function
(Israeli Fatalities)
Incidence
Levels
Coef.
S.E.
Coef.
S.E.
Before Operation Defensive Shield
t-1 to t-7
t-8 to t-14
.042
.032
.014
.017
0.082
0.035
0.036
0.026
-.009
.004
.014
.012
0.000
0.017
0.011
0.009
During Operation Defensive Shield
t-1 to t-7
t-8 to t-14
.026
.039
.020
.028
0.274
0.115
0.115
0.081
-.024
-.001
.042
.041
-0.014
-0.010
0.016
0.012
After Operation Defensive Shield
t-1 to t-7
t-8 to t-14
.031
.025
.017
.017
0.050
-0.013
0.020
0.013
.002
.001
.008
.008
-0.004
0.001
0.004
0.005
2
16.02
9.41
5.53
(<.001)
(.009)
(.063)
7.52
5.97
7.38
(.023)
(.051)
(.025)
0.53
0.37
0.07
(.769)
(.829)
(.964)
4.46
0.98
1.00
(.108)
(.612)
(.606)
2
0.67
(.955)
6.91
(.141)
0.87
(.929)
4.92
(.295)
! for sig. of own fatalities: Pre-ODS (p-value)
2
! for sig. of own fatalities: ODS (p-value)
2
! for sig. of own fatalities: Post-ODS (p-value)
! for test of equality of coefficients in all periods
R2
.644
.401
.249
Note: Dependent variables are daily incidence of fatalities on opposite side or daily number of fatalities on opposite
side. All models estimated with ordinary least squares and include lagged own smoothed lags, period and day-of-week
indicators as well as the length of the separation barrier as regressors. Heteroskedasticity-consistent standard errors.
Source: Authors' tabulations of data from B'Tselem from 29 September 2000 to 15 January 2005.
.125
Table 9
Smoothed Israeli Reaction Functions:
Reaction to Successful and Unsuccessful Suicide Attempts
Palestinian Fatalities
Incidence
Levels
Coef.
S.E.
Coef.
S.E.
Number of days with successful suicide attempts:
t-1 to t-7
t-8 to t-14
Number of days with failed suicide attempts:
t-1 to t-7
t-8 to t-14
Number of days with other Israeli fatalities:
t-1 to t-7
t-8 to t-14
!2 for sig. of successful attempts (p-value)
!2 for sig. of failed attempts (p-value)
!2 for sig. of other fatalities (p-value)
R2
.001
.049
.022
.021
0.608
0.299
0.263
0.210
-.007
.024
.027
.026
0.137
0.511
0.162
0.269
.045
.017
.011
.012
0.526
-0.018
0.112
0.097
5.37
0.89
22.38
(.068)
(.640)
(<.001)
5.54
3.84
22.46
(.063)
(.147)
(<.001)
.088
.198
Note: Dependent variable is daily incidence or the daily number of Palestinian fatalities. All
models estimated with ordinary least squares and include "smoothed" lags of Palestinian fatalities,
period and day-of-week indicators as well as the length of the separation barrier as regressors.
Heteroskedasticity-consistent standard errors.
Source: Authors' tabulations of data from B'Tselem from 29 September 2000 to 15 January 2005.
Table 10
Smoothed Palestinian Reaction Functions:
Reaction to Successful and Unsuccessful Assassination Attempts
Israeli Fatalities
Incidence
Levels
Coef.
S.E.
Coef.
S.E.
Number of days with successful assassination attempts:
t-1 to t-7
t-8 to t-14
Number of days with failed assassination attempts:
t-1 to t-7
t-8 to t-14
Number of days with other Palestinian fatalities:
t-1 to t-7
t-8 to t-14
!2 for sig. of successful attempts (p-value)
!2 for sig. of failed attempts (p-value)
!2 for sig. of other fatalities (p-value)
R2
-.022
.003
.013
.014
-0.218
0.099
.069
.093
.090
-.022
.036
.029
0.120
-0.263
.205
.157
-.002
-.001
.008
.008
-0.022
0.093
.042
.052
3.06
7.14
0.08
(.217)
(.028)
(.959)
10.09
4.66
3.48
(.006)
(.097)
(.176)
.073
.048
Note: Dependent variable is daily incidence or the daily number of Israeli fatalities. All
models are estimated with ordinary least squares and include "smoothed" lags of Israeli fatalities,
period and day-of-week indicators as well as the length of the separation barrier as regressors.
Heteroskedasticity-consistent standard errors.
Source: Authors' tabulations of data from B'Tselem and Zussman and Zussman (2005) from
29 September 2000 to 30 April 2004.
Table 11
Smoothed Palestinian Reaction Functions:
Suicide Attacks and Other Actions as Reaction to Successful and Unsuccessful Assassination Attempts
Israeli Fatalities
Number of days with successful assassination attempts
t-1 to t-7
t-8 to t-14
Number of days with failed assassination attempts
t-1 to t-7
t-8 to t-14
Number of days with other Palestinian fatalities
t-1 to t-7
t-8 to t-14
!2 for sig. of successful attempts (p-value)
!2 for sig. of failed attempts (p-value)
!2 for sig. of other fatalities (p-value)
R2
From Suicide Attacks
Incidence
Levels
Coef.
S.E.
Coef.
S.E.
From All Other Actions
Incidence
Levels
Coef.
S.E.
Coef.
S.E.
-.020
.014
.006
.007
-0.188
0.126
0.063
0.085
-.006
-.009
.012
.013
-0.031
-0.027
0.029
0.037
-.022
-.001
.013
.016
0.015
-0.095
0.181
0.146
.117
-.038
.036
.026
0.105
-0.167
0.092
0.064
-.002
-.002
.004
.004
-0.025
0.071
0.037
0.048
.001
.000
.007
.007
0.002
0.022
0.020
0.020
11.61
2.84
0.67
(.003)
(.241)
(.714)
8.91
0.62
2.53
(.012)
(.733)
(.282)
0.70
13.75
0.02
(.706)
(.001)
(.988)
1.44
9.15
1.17
(.486)
(.010)
(.557)
.042
.029
.082
.060
Note: Dependent variable is daily incidence or daily number of Israeli fatalities by suicide bombings or all other actions. All models
estimated with ordinary least squares and include "smoothed" lags of Israeli fatalities, period and day-of-week indicators as well as the
length of the separation barrier as regressors. Heteroskedasticity-consistent standard errors.
Source: Authors' tabulations of data from B'Tselem and Zussman and Zussman (2005) from 29 September 2000 to 30 April 2004.
Table 12
The Effect of Border Closings, Checkpoints and Restrictions to Movement on the Palestinian Reaction Function
(1)
(2)
Fraction
checkpoints closed
Coef.
S.E.
Number of days with Palestinian fatalities in days:
t-1 to t-7
t-8 to t-14
Number of days with Israeli fatalities in days:
t-1 to t-7
t-8 to t-14
(3)
Dependent Variable:
Incidence:
Incidence:
Any Israeli
Any Israeli
fatalities
fatalities
Coef.
S.E.
Coef.
S.E.
.012
.015
.011
.012
.010
.014
.011
.012
.008
-.043
.018
.021
.005
-.047
.018
.021
(4)
(5)
Levels: Num.
of Israeli
fatalities
Coef.
S.E.
Levels: Num.
of Israeli
fatalities
Coef.
S.E.
Number of Palestinian fatalities in days:
t-1 to t-7
t-8 to t-14
.00045
.00088
.00015
.00018
0.001
-0.002
0.004
0.003
-0.001
-0.005
0.004
0.003
Number of Israeli fatalities in days:
t-1 to t-7
t-8 to t-14
.00385
.00417
.00068
.00070
-0.032
-0.030
0.015
0.011
-0.043
-0.042
0.017
0.013
2.946
1.097
3.08
10.72
(.214)
(.005)
Fraction checkpoints closed
!2 for joint sig. of Palestinian fatalities (p-value)
!2 for joint sig. of Israeli fatalities (p-value)
R2
39.07
57.65
(<.001)
(<.001)
.251
2.78
5.16
(.249)
(.076)
.025
.374
.281
2.25
5.71
(.325)
(.057)
.029
0.68
7.00
(.713)
(.030)
.021
Note: All models estimated with ordinary least squares and include day-of-week indicators as well as the length of the separation barrier
as regressors. Heteroskedasticity-consistent standard errors.
Source: Authors' tabulations of data from B'Tselem from 1 October 2003 to 15 January 2005.
.029
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