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Pre-collectivization peasantry social dynamics :
retroprognosis: application of alternative modells
Borodkin, Leonid; Svishchev, Mikhail
Veröffentlichungsversion / Published Version
Zeitschriftenartikel / journal article
Zur Verfügung gestellt in Kooperation mit / provided in cooperation with:
GESIS - Leibniz-Institut für Sozialwissenschaften
Empfohlene Zitierung / Suggested Citation:
Borodkin, Leonid ; Svishchev, Mikhail: Pre-collectivization peasantry social dynamics : retroprognosis: application
of alternative modells. In: Historical Social Research 16 (1991), 2, pp. 25-39. URN: http://nbn-resolving.de/
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Historical Social Research, Vol. 16 — 1991 — No. 2, 25-39
Pre-Collectivization Peasantry Social Dynamics
Retroprognosis: Application of Alternative Models
Leonid
Borodkin,
Mikhail
Svishchev*
Abstract: The events that occurred in the USSR at the
e n d of t h e 1920s - b e g i n n i n g of t h e 1930s w e r e given t h e
n a m e »great b r e a k « . I t was t h e e n d o f N E P - N e w E c o n o m i c Policy. T h i s w o r k a p p l i e s s i m u l a t i o n t o
r e t r o p r o g n o s i s of t h e pre-collectivization p e a s a n t r y social s t r u c t u r e d y n a m i c s t o » p r o l o n g « t h e N E P r u r a l p o p u l a t i o n social m o b i l i t y t e n d e n c i e s u p t o t h e late 30ies,
w h i c h offers a n o p p o r t u n i t y t o disclose distinctly t h e
n a t u r e of social processes in t h e c o u n t r y s i d e b e f o r e t h e
c o l l e c t i v i z a t i o n , t o detect t h e d i r e c t i o n s a n d e x t e n t o f
t h e social d i f f e r e n t i a t i o n . S i m u l a t i o n b a s e d o n M a r k o v s
c h a i n s allows to assess a t h e o r y t h a t m a r k e t e c o n o m y
inevitably entails rural population differentiation and
a n t a g o n i s t i c social g r o u p s f o r m a t i o n from t h e f o r m e r l y
h o m o g e n e o u s m a s s o f petty c o m m o d i t y p r o d u c e r s . T h e
model's parameters were estimated by using the data on
t h e r u r a l social processes, r e c o r d e d b y d y n a m i c c e n s u s e s
o f t h e mid-20ies. T h e r e s u l t s o f s i m u l a t i o n i n d i c a t e t h a t
if the N E P economic conditions had been sustained, the
p e a s a n t r y w o u l d n ' t h a v e splitted i n t o o p p o s e d g r o u p , o n
t h e c o n t r a r y , t h e position o f m e d i u m strata w o u l d h a v e
g r o w n s t r o n g e r against t h e b a c k g r o u n d o f t h e o v e r a l l
economic growth.
W h e t h e r t h e » G r e a t B r e a k « was h i s t o r i c a l l y i n e v i t a b l e o r else t h e Soviet
economy would have developed towards further progress of c o m m o d i t y - m o n e y relations and expansion of the sphere in which m a r k e t laws
a p p l i e d t u r n e d out to be a m o s t topical q u e s t i o n in t h e h i s t o r i c a l discussion
o f t h e late 80ies. S o m e m a i n t a i n t h a t t h e N e w E c o n o m i c Policy ( N E P ) ,
w h i c h gave full play t o p r i v a t e i n i t i a t i v e a n d b r o k e loose p e a s a n t s from t h e
a d m i n i s t r a t i v e r e s t r a i n t s , a p p e a r e d t o b e t h e m o s t successful p o s t - R e v o l u tion p e r i o d i n t h e c o u n t r y ' s d e v e l o p m e n t . T h e N E P p r i n c i p l e s far f r o m
* A d d r e s s all c o m m u n i c a t i o n s t o L e o n i d B o r o d k i n , M i k h a i l S v i s h c h e v ,
M o s c o w U n i v e r s i t y , H i s t o r i c a l F a c u l t y , 119899, M o s c o w , U S S R .
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Historical Social Research, Vol. 16 — 1991 — No. 2, 25-39
h a v i n g disclosed t h e i r p o t e n t i a l i t i e s c o u l d h a v e f u r t h e r p r o v i d e d a r a p i d
g r o w t h o f t h e e c o n o m y . T h e i r o p p o n e n t s claim t h a t b y t h e e n d o f t h e 1920s
t h e c o u n t r y c a m e across difficulties i n s u r m o u n t a b l e i n t e r m s o f t h e N E P .
T h e social d i f f e r e n t i a t i o n was a m o s t s e r i o u s p r o b l e m . T h e c o m m o d i t y
p r o d u c t i o n a n d m a r k e t was splitting t h e f o r m e r l y h o m o g e n e o u s m a s s o f
commodity producers into the poor and the well-to-do. The antagonism
b e t w e e n t h e t w o g r o u p s w a s a source of i n c e s s a n t conflicts s h a t t e r i n g t h e
social p e a c e . G r o w i n g c o n t r a s t b e t w e e n t h e h a v e s a n d h a v e n o t s w a s
f r a u g h t with n e w o u t b u r s t s o f social v i o l e n c e . T h e r e f o r e t h e G r e a t B r e a k ,
e l i m i n a t i n g t h e very s o u r c e of social a n t a g o n i s m - t h e p r i v a t e p r o p e r t y a n d p a v i n g t h e w a y for a largescale p r o d u c t i o n , w a s i n e v i t a b l e in t e r m s of
the historical development. No doubt, so the argument continues, the m e t h o d s o f its i m p l e m e n t a t i o n w e r e c r i m i n a l , b u t s o o n e r o r later such steps
had to be taken.
T h e w h o l e discussion is led as if in t h e s u b j u n c t i v e m o o d . T h e p o i n t is
t h a t t h e N E P w a s realised over a historically s h o r t span of t i m e a n d its
i n h e r e n t t e n d e n c i e s failed t o e v o l v e distinctly e n o u g h . Specifying t h e latter
a r e t h e w o r d s o f t h e p r o m i n e n t A m e r i c a n h i s t o r i a n , S.Fitzpatrick, » O n e
c a n n o t a n s w e r with c e r t a i n t y t h e q u e s t i o n , w h e t h e r t i m e w o u l d p r o v e its
validity. T h e r e w a s n o t i m e « (1). T h u s , t h e subject o f t h e discussion i s n o t
so m u c h w h a t w a s in reality, b u t w h a t w o u l d h a v e b e e n , if t h e c o m m o d i t y m o n e y r e l a t i o n s a n d m a r k e t h a d s u r v i v e d for a l o n g t i m e .
In o r d e r to a n s w e r t h e q u e s t i o n s t h a t h a v e e m e r g e d in t h e discussion, a
p r o g n o s i s (in fact, a r e t r o p r o g n o s i s ) as to h o w t h e social a n d e c o n o m i c
processes would have developed if the N E P had been sustained should be
w o r k e d o u t . A t t e m p t s of that k i n d based p r i m a r i l y on a s p e c u l a t i v e a n d
i n t u i t i v e a p p r o a c h t o t h e social p r o c e s s analysis h a v e a l r e a d y b e e n m a d e ,
w i t h t h e r e s u l a n t » s c e n a r i o s « distinctly affected b y t h e v a l u e s e s p o u s e d b y
the researchers.
Very often q u a l i t a t i v e l y c o n t r a s t e d r e t r o p r o g n o s e s s t e m m e d from t h e
s a m e d a t a . T h a t ' s w h y i t i s necessary t o u s e verifiable a n d c o n v i n c i n g r e search m e t h o d s a n d a d e q u a t e s o u r c e s t o m a k e t h e r e t r o p r o g n o s i s p r o c e d u r e p r o p e r l y scientific.
O n e of t h e a p p r o a c h e s a n a l y s i n g a l t e r n a t i v e s to social p r o c e s s e s is b a s e d
o n t h e s i m u l a t i v e m o d e l l i n g t e c h n i q u e . S i m u l a t i v e m o d e l s a r e widely e m ployed in studies of today's s o c i o - e c o n o m i c processes, a d m i t t i n g of ( b y
s u b s t i t u t i n g t h e subject o f k n o w l e d g e a n d b e i n g its a n a l o g u e ) a s s u m e d
reproduction of functioning and development variants. This simulation
r e s u l t s i n m o r e efficient s o l u t i o n s o f p r e d i c t i o n , m a n a g e m e n t , p l a n n i n g ,
etc. tasks.
A s r e g a r d s t h e s i m u l a t i o n o f h i s t o r i c a l processes a n d p h e n o m e n a a n u m b e r of specific m e t h o d o l o g i c a l p r o b l e m s , arise w h i c h an associated w i t h
t h e fact t h a t in h i s t o r y we d e a l with t h e o n l y » r o u t e « of a historical process
t h a t h a s b e e n followed in reality.
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Historical Social Research, Vol. 16 — 1991 — No. 2, 25-39
I n h i s c o m p r e h e n s i v e r e v i e w o f t h e s e p r o b l e m s I . K o v a l c h e n k o singled
out 2 types of s i m u l a t i v e m o d e l s in h i s t o r i c a l studies: c o n t r a f a c t u a l m o d e l s
and alternative ones (2). T h e contrafactual models don't portray the real
a n d o b j e c t i v e l y a d m i s s i b l e h i s t o r i c a l d e v e l o p m e n t , i n s t e a d t h e y depict i t
t h e way t h e r e s e a r c h e r w o u l d like t o see it. S i m u l a t i v e m o d e l s , h o w e v e r ,
c a n b e a n efficient i n s t r u m e n t t o s t u d y a l t e r n a t i v e h i s t o r i c a l d e v e l o p m e n t s .
S i m u l a t i o n of o n e or a n o t h e r v a r i a n t of possible o u t c o m e s allows to a r r i v e
at an indepth understanding of the actual historical development and the
essential m e a n i n g a n d significance o f t h e struggle for o n e o r a n o t h e r o u t c o m e v a r i a n t b e t w e e n v a r i o u s social g r o u p s ( 3 ) .
T h i s w o r k a p p l i e s s i m u l a t i o n t o r e t r o p r o g n o s i s o f t h e pre-collectivization p e a s a n t r y social s t r u c t u r e d y n a m i c s t o » p r o l o n g « t h e N E P r u r a l p o p u l a t i o n social m o b i l i t y t e n d e n c i e s u p t o t h e late 30ies, w h i c h offers a n
o p p o r t u n i t y to disclose distinctly t h e n a t u r e of social p r o c e s s e s in t h e village b e f o r e t h e c o l l e c t i v i z a t i o n , t o detect t h e d i r e c t i o n s a n d e x t e n t o f t h e
social d i f f e r e n t i a t i o n . S i m u l a t i o n allows to assess a t h e o r y t h a t m a r k e t
e c o n o m y inevitably entails rural population differentiation and antagonistic social g r o u p s f o r m a t i o n from t h e f o r m e r l y h o m o g e n e o u s m a s s o f p e t t y
c o m m o d i t y p r o d u c e r s . A n d i f i n reality » t h e r e w a s n o t i m e « t o fully d e velop a » p h o t o « of t h e social processes of t h e 1920s, s i m u l a t i o n p r o v i d e s
t h i s » t i m e « . A correctly m a d e m o d e l can d r i v e t h e » p h o t o d e v e l o p m e n t
p r o c e d u r e t o t h e stage, w h e n t h e c o n t o u r s o f t h e p h e n o m e n o n u n d e r c o n s i d e r a t i o n b e c o m e a p p a r e n t a n d clear.
T h i s a r t i c l e c o n t i n u e s t h e s t u d y o f t h e N E P e c o n o m y p r i v a t e sector social processes, we've a l r e a d y a n a l y s e d ( u s i n g m a t h e m a t i c a l s i m u l a t i o n ) t h e
social m o b i l i t y o f u r b a n e n t e r p r e n e u r s ( 4 ) .
Sources
D a t a o f t h e d y n a m i c c e n s u s e s o f p e a s a n t h o u s e h o l d s can b e u s e d for p e t t y
c o m m o d i t y p r o d u c e r s m o b i l i t y studies (5). T h e c o u n t y statistician, N . C h e r n e n k o v , w h o worked in Saratov province at the turn of the XXth century,
took the initiative in conducting the dynamic censuses. He c a m e to a conclusion t h a t e v e n w i t h t h e m a t e r i a l s o f several successive c e n s u s e s i n c o r p o r a t i n g t h e d a t a o n q u a n t i t i e s o f h o u s e h o l d s o f different e c o n o m i c p r o sperity it is i m p o s s i b l e to e v a l u a t e t h e r u r a l processes. F o r a c h a n g e of t h e
s h a r e o f o n e o r a n o t h e r g r o u p c o u l d b e b r o u g h t a b o u t b y v a r i o u s factors.
So N . C h e r n e n k o v tried to r e c o r d statistically w h a t h a p p e n e d to a p e a s a n t
h o u s e h o l d o v e r a c e r t a i n span o f t i m e . H e p r o p o s e d t h a t t w o successive
s u r v e y s of t h e s a m e villages be c o n d u c t e d . T h e s u r v e y s s h o u l d register a
h o u s e h o l d t r a n s i t i o n i n t o a n o t h e r g r o u p b y sown a r e a s a n d w o r k i n g livestock c a p i t a o v e r t h e t i m e span b e t w e e n t h e successive c e n s u s e s . All t h e
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Historical Social Research, Vol. 16 — 1991 — No. 2, 25-39
d a t a on t h e » f o r m e r « a n d » c u r r e n t « h o u s e h o l d status w e r e p u t on a sep a r a t e » h i s t o r i c a l « c a r d . T h e o b t a i n e d d a t a classification displayed t h e d i r e c t i o n a n d i n t e n s i t y of p e a s a n t s ' social t r a n s i t i o n s . But it soon b e c a m e
clear t h a t t h e c o m p l i c a t e d village s t r u c t u r e w a s a result of t w o i n t e r a c t i n g
processes. A l o n g with t h e o n g o i n g e c o n o m i c p o t e n t i a l c h a n g e o f p e a s a n t
h o u s e h o l d s t h a t led to a h i g h e r or lower status, h o u s e h o l d s u n d e r w e n t
» o r g a n i c c h a n g e s « ( d i v i s i o n s , m e r g e r s , l i q u i d a t i o n s , etc.), c a u s e d b y b o t h
d e m o g r a p h i c a n d social factors a n d r e s u l t i n g i n t r a n s i t i o n s from o n e social
s t r a t u m t o a n o t h e r . A n d , finally, t h e r e w e r e r e s e t t l e m e n t s o f p e a s a n t s , also
affecting social g r o u p q u a n t i t i e s . T a k e n t o g e t h e r , t h o s e processes p r o d u c e d
a d y n a m i c a n d i n t e r n a l l y c o n t r a d i c t o r y p i c t u r e of t h e r u r a l social diff e r e n t i a t i o n . T h a t ' s w h y a l o n g with p e a s a n t h o u s e h o l d e c o n o m i c p o t e n t i a l
a l t e r a t i o n s , t h e d y n a m i c c e n s u s e s r e c o r d e d a s h a r e of h o u s e h o l d s , affected
b y » o r g a n i c c h a n g e s « , a n d t h e i r d i s t r i b u t i o n b y sown a r e a s a n d w o r k i n g
livestock capita.
Before, t h e r e v o l u t i o n p e a s a n t h o u s e h o l d s d y n a m i c d a t a w e r e collected
b y i n d i v i d u a l e n t h u s i a s t s o f c o u n t y c o u n c i l Statistics b o a r d s . A l t o g e t h e r ,
o v e r a p e r i o d of 1880-1900s t h e d y n a m i c c e n s u s e s w e r e c o n d u c t e d in sev e r a l districts of different a r e a s . It t u r n s out to be a very f o r m i d a b l e c h a l l e n g e t o a r r a n g e t h e d a t a for c o m p a r a t i v e studies, t o assess t h e i r reliability
a n d r e p r e s e n t a t i v e n e s s . After t h e R e v o l u t i o n r u r a l social t r a n s i t i o n s t u d i e s
b e c a m e o n e o f t h e p r i n c i p a l t a s k s o f State statistics b o d i e s . F o r t h a t p u r p o s e a n a g r i c u l t u r a l d y n a m i c s d e p a r t m e n t w a s set u p w i t h i n t h e f r a m e w o r k of t h e C e n t r a l Statistics B o a r d . It w a s h e a d e d by A . K h r y a s h c h e v a , a
m o s t v i g o r o u s a d v o c a t e of d y n a m i c c e n s u s e s , w h o h a d b e e n a c o u n t y statistician i n Tula p r o v i n c e b e f o r e t h e R e v o l u t i o n . S h e led t h e largest i n t h e
h i s t o r y of c o u n t y statistics a n d , from t h e m e t h o d o l o g i c a l p o i n t of view,
m o s t c o m p l e t e d y n a m i c c e n s u s o f p e a s a n t h o u s e h o l d s o f E p i p h a n ' district
( 6 ) . H e r set o f t e c h n i q u e s w a s e m p l o y e d w i t h o u t a n y a l t e r a t i o n s b y t h e
C e n t r a l Statistics B o a r d i n 1920s. D y n a m i c c e n s u s e s w e r e c a r r i e d out a n n u a l l y b y o n e a n d t h e s a m e n e s t s ( v o l o s t ' o r g r o u p s o f villages) a n d c o v e r e d
over 600,000 h o u s e h o l d s , w h i c h i s t h e m o s t e x t e n s i v e s a m p l e s t u d y o f t h e
p r e c o l l e c t i v i z a t i o n village. O v e r 9 years c o n s i d e r a b l e d a t a w e r e g a t h e r e d ,
m a k i n g i t possible t o study v a r i o u s aspects o f t h e N E P r u r a l social p r o c e s ses. A s u b s t a n t i a l p a r t of t h e m a t e r i a l s w a s p u b l i s h e d ( 7 ) .
T h e d y n a m i c c e n s u s d a t a a r e used b y h i s t o r i a n s t o d e s c r i b e t h e p r o d u c t i v e forces a n d class s t r u c t u r e of t h e village. Yet, t h e social t r a n s i t i o n d a t a
for t h e sake o f w h i c h t h e c e n s u s e s w e r e c o n d u c t e d , h a v e n o t t a k e n full
a d v a n t a g e of by h i s t o r i a n s .
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Historical Social Research, Vol. 16 — 1991 — No. 2, 25-39
Simulative Model Structure
T h u s , t h e r u r a l social d i f f e r e n t i a t i o n p i c t u r e w a s c r e a t e d b y t w o i n t e r a c t i n g
p r o c e s s e s . Firstly, t h e p e a s a n t h o u s e h o l d s ' e c o n o m i c p o t e n t i a l w a s c o n t i n u o u s l y c h a n g i n g , w h i c h resulted e i t h e r in a h i g h e r social s t a t u s or a lower
one. Secondly, some households u n d e r w e n t »organic changes« (divisions,
m e r g e r s , l i q u i d a t i o n s , etc.), b r o u g h t a b o u t b y b o t h d e m o g r a p h i c a n d social
factors, which also led to a t r a n s i t i o n from o n e s t r a t u m to a n o t h e r . A n d ,
finally, t h e r e w e r e r e s e t t l e m e n t s o f p e a s a n t s , affecting social g r o u p q u a n t i ties as well (8).
As a w h o l e t h e r u r a l d i f f e r e n t i a t i o n m e c h a n i s m can be p r e s e n t e d as a
s c h e m e ( F i g . l ) , w h e r e T is t h e b e g i n n i n g of t h e p e r i o d , for w h i c h t r a n s i t i o n s a r e r e c o r d e d , T+ 1 is t h e e n d of t h e p e r i o d .
With the household group distribution data and the quantities of hous e h o l d s t h a t over a c e r t a i n span of t i m e shifted from o n e g r o u p i n t o a n o t h e r as a result of a c h a n g e d e c o n o m i c p o t e n t i a l , a n y » o r g a n i c c h a n g e « or
a r e s e t t l e m e n t , it is possible to p r o d u c e a r e t r o p r o g n o s i s for t h e e n d of t h e
t i m e span with t h e h e l p o f a m a t h e m a t i c a l m o d e l . P r o c e e d i n g from t h e
a s s u m p t i o n t h a t t h e a b o v e m e n t i o n e d processes w e r e o f i n v a r i a b l e i n t e n s i t y a n d d i r e c t i o n s ( a s t a t i o n a r y m o d e l p r e r e q u i s i t e ) , w e c a n also o b t a i n
a r e t r o p r o g n o s i s for a m o r e d i s t a n t t i m e .
G r o u p - t o - g r o u p t r a n s i t i o n s o f p e a s a n t h o u s e h o l d s , n o t affected b y » o r g a n i c c h a n g e s « , a r e s u m m a r i z e d in a t a b l e , w h i c h is called a t r a n s i t i o n
m a t r i x . I t d e m o n s t r a t e s i n w h a t d i r e c t i o n a n d with w h a t i n t e n s i t y t h e social p r o c e s s e s w e n t on in t h a t category. To s i m u l a t e g r o u p q u a n t i t y d y n a m i c s w e can m a k e use o f t h e a p p a r a t u s o f M a r k o v c h a i n s . M a r k o v m o d e l s
are the most simple of those taking into consideration group interrelations
(9).
Social m o b i l i t y s i m u l a t i o n , b a s e d on t h e f e a t u r e s of a M a r k o v p r o c e s s
w i t h discrete t i m e , is d e s c r i b e d by t h e o r i g i n a l state of a system (i.e.original
g r o u p quantities) a n d a m a t r i x of g r o u p - t o - g r o u p t r a n s i t i o n possibilities
p e n d i n g a » s t e p « . P r o c e e d i n g from t h e h y p o t h e s i s t h a t t h e t r a n s i t i o n s t r u c t u r e i s stable, M a r k o v ' s m o d e l allows t o get i n f o r m a t i o n o n t h e f o l l o w i n g
states o f t h e system o n t h e b a s i s o f o r i g i n a l g r o u p q u a n t i t i e s . T h a t i s h o w
t h e r e t r o p r o g n o s i s of t h e social s t r u c t u r e of p e a s a n t s , n o t affected by » o r ganic changes«, was m a d e . Later on a share of households that u n d e r w e n t
a n » o r g a n i c c h a n g e « i n each g r o u p i s f o u n d o u t a c c o r d i n g t o t h e s o u r c e
d a t a . L i q u i d a t i o n s a n d e x p u l s i o n s led to a d e p r i v a t i o n of p e a s a n t s ' s t a t u s .
O n t h e c o n t r a r y , n e w l y - s e t t l e d o r resettled p e a s a n t s e n t e r e d a social g r o u p ,
a c q u i r i n g a c e r t a i n status.
Divisions and mergers changed the total n u m b e r of households, with
newly-formed households moving into another group. Therefore, along
with the share of divided and merged households, the quantity of new29
Historical Social Research, Vol. 16 — 1991 — No. 2, 25-39
ly-formed households and their group distribution was taken into consid e r a t i o n . So, t h e c o r r e s p o n d i n g p e r c e n t r a t i o s for e v e r y g r o u p o f h o u s e h o l d s , affected b y a n » o r g a n i c c h a n g e « , p r o v i d e d t h e n e c e s s a r y s i m u l a t i o n
p a r a m e t e r s . S i m u l t a n e o u s c a l c u l a t i o n s b o t h for t h e h o u s e h o l d s t h a t r e m a i n e d stable o v e r t h e period u n d e r c o n s i d e r a t i o n a n d for t h e h o u s e h o l d s ,
affected by » o r g a n i c c h a n g e s « , c o u l d p r o d u c e a r e t r o p r o g n o s i s of t h e total
n u m b e r o f h o u s e h o l d s a n d t h e i r q u a n t i t i e s i n e v e r y social g r o u p , w h i c h
d o e s n ' t p r e s e n t a t e c h n i c a l difficulty, b u t is associated w i t h m u c h of c o m puter based calculations.
T h e a b o v e said s i m u l a t i o n m e t h o d h a s c o n s i d e r a b l e l i m i t a t i o n s . F o r u n d e r l y i n g it is t h e a s s u m p t i o n t h a t all t h e r u r a l processes a r e of i n v a r i a b l e
intensity. That's why the results depend on the original data, the retroprognosis is being developed on. For example, if the data on household transi t i o n s f r o m o n e g r o u p i n t o a n o t h e r i n a p r o d u c t i v e year, with a n u p w a r d
t e n d e n c y a s t o t h e social status d o m i n a t i n g over a d o w n w a r d o n e a n d t h e
g e n e r a l l y g r o w i n g e c o n o m i c level, t h e p r o g n o s i s will b e m a d e p r o c e e d i n g
f r o m t h e s e f a v o u r a b l e c o n d i t i o n s . I n o t h e r w o r d s , t h e r u r a l social s t r u c t u r e
c o u l d h a v e b e e n t h e s a m e , a s i t h a s b e e n p r e d i c t e d , o n l y i f all t h e y e a r s t o
follow h a d b e e n p r o d u c t i v e a n d t h e e c o n o m i c situation h a d n ' t u n d e r g o n e
any substantial changes.
C a l c u l a t i o n s w e r e d o n e a c c o r d i n g t o t h e a b o v e m e n t i o n e d m e t h o d for
t h e d a t a of e a c h year from 1921 to 1928 to find out h o w m u c h e c o n o m i c ,
n a t u r a l a n d c l i m a t i c factors affected t h e p e a s a n t social d y n a m i c s . C o r r e s p o n d i n g l y , 8 m o d e l s of t h e r u r a l social s t r u c t u r e d y n a m i c s w e r e o b t a i n e d .
F o r e s t a l l i n g c o n c l u s i o n s , w e w o u l d like t o n o t e , t h a t t h e r e t r o p r o g n o s e s
p r o c e e d i n g from t h e e c o n o m i c c o n d i t i o n s o f v a r i o u s years p r o v i d e a q u a litatively h o m o g e n e o u s p i c t u r e o f t h e r u r a l social processes d e v e l o p m e n t ,
h o w e v e r with q u a n t i t a t i v e differences. F u r t h e r o n t h e s a m e m e t h o d w a s
a p p l i e d t o s o m e r e g i o n s o f t h e c o u n t r y . It's e s s e n t i a l t h a t t h e r u r a l social
s t r u c t u r e analysis w a s b a s e d o n t h e h o u s e h o l d g r o u p i n g s b y sown a r e a s , a s
well a s b y p r o d u c t i v e a n d w o r k i n g livestock c a p i t a a n d t h e cost o f m e a n s
o f p r o d u c t i o n . T h a t also p r o d u c e d q u a l i t a t i v e l y h o m o g e n e o u s r e s u l t s . S o
t h e p r o p o s e d r e t r o p r o g n o s i s m e t h o d allows t o o f disclosing i n d e p t h
t e n d e n c i e s o f t h e r u r a l social s t r u c t u r e d e v e l o p m e n t associated with t h e
N E P petty c o m m o d i t y p r o d u c t i o n .
Statistical Data on Peasants' Social Dynamics in the Mid 20ies
L e t ' s m o v e o n t o t h e r u r a l social processes, r e c o r d e d b y d y n a m i c c e n s u s e s
o f t h e m i d 20ies. A s a n e x a m p l e w e shall study h o u s e h o l d t r a n s i t i o n s o f
R u s s i a ' s P r o d u c t i v e R e g i o n i n 1924-1925. T h a t r e g i o n , very i m p o r t a n t for
food s u p p l i e s of t h e c o u n t r y , c o m p r i s e d 3 2 . 5 % o u t of 22.2 m i l l i o n p e a s a n t
households (10).
30
Historical Social Research, Vol. 16 — 1991 — No. 2, 25-39
T h e s o u r c e d a t a (Statisticheskij s p r a v o c h n i k SSSR. M . , 1927, p . 6 6 - 6 9 ) ,
d e s c r i b i n g t h e v a r i o u s c o m p o n e n t s o f t h e r u r a l social d y n a m i c s , c a n b e
p r e s e n t e d in t h r e e t a b l e s (Tables 1, 2, 3). T h e first t h i n g to n o t e is t h e
e x t r e m e l y h i g h m o b i l i t y o f t h e r u r a l p o p u l a t i o n . O v e r t h e year t h a t i n c i d e n t a l l y w a s n o t m a r k e d b y a n y n a t u r a l o r social disasters, 3 2 % o f t h e
h o u s e h o l d s c h a n g e d t h e i r status. S e c o n d , strikingly large i s t h e s h a r e o f t h e
moved and liquidated households in poorest groups and of the divided
h o u s e h o l d s in well-to-do g r o u p s (see Table 1). D i v i s i o n s r e s u l t e d in t r a n s i t i o n s of f o r m e r l y rich h o u s e h o l d s i n t o a w e l l - t o - d o g r o u p (see Table 2).
T h e largest s h a r e of t h e » i n t a c t « h o u s e h o l d s is in t h e g r o u p of h o u s e h o l d s
possessing from 4 to 10 d e s s i a t i n e s . F i n a l l y , it's e v i d e n t , t h a t t r a n s i t i o n s of
h o u s e h o l d s n o t affected b y o r g a n i c c h a n g e s followed t w o d i r e c t i o n s . I n
p o o r e s t t h e g r o u p s a n u p w a r d t e n d e n c y t o w a r d s a h i g h e r status d o m i n a t e d ,
while the status of w e l l - t o - d o households tended to decline. In m e d i u m
g r o u p s t h e p r o p o r t i o n s o f h o u s e h o l d s g r o w i n g rich a n d p o o r w e r e n e a r l y
e q u a l . T h a t ' s w h y t h e g r o u p o f p e a s a n t s with t h e sown a r e a o f 4 - 1 0 dessiat i n e s t u r n e d out t o b e t h e m o s t stable o n e (see Table 3).
T h e s e o b s e r v a t i o n s a r e i m p o r t a n t for t h e u n d e r s t a n d i n g o f t h e e s s e n c e
o f t h e N E P p e a s a n t r y d i f f e r e n t i a t i o n process. A l t h o u g h t h e y c a n ' t b e a
r e l i a b l e i n d i c a t i o n t h a t t h e r e w a s no d i f f e r e n t i a t i o n , as it is very difficult to
find o u t a r e s u l t a n t of t h e o p p o s i t e processes that took p l a c e in t h e village
a n d c o n t r i b u t e d t o t h e social strata q u a n t i t y a l t e r a t i o n .
Simulation Results
W h a t a r e t h e m a i n r e s u l t s o f t h e p r e - c o l l e c t i v i z a t i o n p e a s a n t r y social m o bility s i m u l a t i o n ? Let's first c o n s i d e r t h e social d y n a m i c s r e t r o p r o g n o s i s o f
the rural population of Russia's Productive Region, m a d e on the condition
t h a t t h e i n t e n s i t y a n d direction of p r o c e s s e s stay at t h e s a m e level, as it w a s
in 1924-1925 (Table 4).
As the simulative model, the parameters of which were calculated acc o r d i n g t o t h e d a t a o f Tables 1-3, u n c o v e r s , t h e s h a r e o f t h e p o o r e s t g r o u p
w i t h a sown a r e a up to 2 d e s s i a t i n e s w o u l d c o n s i d e r a b l y r e d u c e o v e r 15
years, w h i l e t h e s h a r e of h o u s e h o l d s with a sown a r e a of 2 . 1 - 4 . 0 d e s s i a t i n e s
w o u l d r e m a i n a l m o s t u n c h a n g e d . T h e p r o p o r t i o n o f p e a s a n t s possessing
from 4.1 to 10.0 d e s s i a t i n e s of sown a r e a w o u l d i n c r e a s e significantly ( a l m o s t by a t h i r d ) . T h o u g h t h e p r o p o r t i o n of t h e w e l l - t o - d o g r o u p with a
sown a r e a o v e r 10.1 d e s s i a t i n e s w o u l d u n d e r g o t h e largest e x p a n s i o n ( f r o m
3 . 1 % t o 5.1%), its s h a r e i n t h e p e a s a n t social s t r u c t u r e w a s s o u n i m p o r t a n t ,
t h a t t h e e x p a n s i o n w o u l d h a v e a r e l a t i v e l y weak effect on t h e d e p t h of t h e
r u r a l social d i f f e r e n t i a t i o n . T h u s , i f t h e N E P e c o n o m i c c o n d i t i o n s h a d
b e e n s u s t a i n e d , t h e p e a s a n t r y w o u l d n o t h a v e splitted i n t o o p p o s e d g r o u p s ,
31
Historical Social Research, Vol. 16 — 1991 — No. 2, 25-39
o n t h e c o n t r a r y , a s t h e s i m u l a t i o n s r e s u l t s d e m o n s t r a t e , t h e position o f
m e d i u m s t r a t a w o u l d h a v e g r o w n stronger against t h e b a c k g r o u n d o f t h e
overall economic growth. These tendencies are graphically depicted in the
d i a g r a m s (see Fig.2 a n d 3).
To w h a t e x t e n t do t h e o b t a i n e d r e s u l t s reflect t h e specificity of t h e P r o ductive Region? To answer this question, we turned to the data of dynamic
censuses of the Consumptive Region, which embraced 24.8% of peasants
h o u s e h o l d ( 1 1 ) . O n t h e w h o l e t h e sown a r e a i n d e x i n t h a t region w a s
s u b s t a n t i a l l y lower t h a n in t h e P r o d u c t i v e R e g i o n (2.87 a n d 3.27 dessiatin e s p e r a h o u s e h o l d respectively). D u e to t h a t fact t h e s i m i l a r social p r o cesses w e n t on in t h e C o n s u m p t i v e R e g i o n as if on a lower level.
T h e r e t r o p r o g n o s i s r e s u l t s o f t h e p e a s a n t social d y n a m i c s o f t h e P r o d u c tive a n d C o n s u m p t i v e R e g i o n s a p p e a r e d t o b e a n a l o g o u s o n t h e w h o l e
( T a b l e 4; Fig.4 a n d 5). A c c o r d i n g to t h e m o d e l , in 15 years t h e p r o p o r t i o n
of p o o r e s t p e a s a n t s with a sown a r e a up to 2.0 dessiatines in t h e C o n s u m p tive R e g i o n w o u l d r e d u c e from 6 0 . 4 % t o 38.7%. T h e s h a r e o f h o u s e h o l d s
w i t h a sown a r e a of 2.1-4.0 d e s s i a t i n e s w o u l d i n c r e a s e from 31.2% to 3 7 . 4 %
while in the Productive Region the corresponding share would remain
stable. A s t h e r e t r o p r o g n o s i s s h o w s , t h e n u m b e r o f h o u s e h o l d s s o w i n g
f r o m 4.1 to 10.0 d e s s i a t i n e s w o u l d g r o w by 3.6 t i m e s , t h e i r s h a r e j u m p i n g
f r o m 8 . 3 % to 22.8%. T h e g r o w t h r a t e of h o u s e h o l d s with a sown a r e a o v e r
10.1 d e s s i a t i n e s w o u l d be m i r a c u l o u s (12.3 t i m e s o v e r 15 years). But in
1924 t h e r e w e r e o n l y 204 h o u s e h o l d s of t h a t k i n d out of 188914, c o v e r e d
b y t h e d y n a m i c c e n s u s , t h e r e f o r e , h o w e v e r t h e explosive g r o w t h , t h e p r o p o r t i o n o f such h o u s e h o l d s w o u l d a m o u n t t o only l % b y t h e year 1940.
I t s h o u l d b e n o t e d t h a t a s t h e d i a g r a m s display, with t h e social d e v e l o p m e n t t e n d e n c i e s o f t h e m i d 20ies c o n t i n u e d , t h e p e a s a n t social s t r u c t u r e
w o u l d u n d e r g o m a r k e d c h a n g e s o v e r t h e first 6 - 8 y e a r s a n d b y t h e m i d
30ies w o u l d b e c o m e sufficiently stable.
Conclusion
T h e analysis o f t h e totality o f t h e o b t a i n e d r e t r o p r o g n o s e s discloses t h a t
o v e r t h e 1920s t h e r e w a s n o t a single region in t h e c o u n t r y with i n t e n s e
r u r a l d i f f e r e n t i a t i o n a n d o p p o s e d g r o u p s f o r m a t i o n . So e v e n a r e l a t i v e l y
long existence of the N E P economic conditions (the prognosis was m a d e
u p t o t h e e n d o f t h e 1930s, i.e. for 1 2 - 2 0 years) w o u l d n ' t c a u s e m o r e c o n siderable differentiation.
T h e r e s u l t s o f t h e p r e - c o l l e c t i v i z a t i o n p e a s a n t r y social d y n a m i c s a n a l y sis, b a s e d o n d a t a p r o c e s s i n g a n d m a t h e m a t i c a l s i m u l a t i o n t e c h n i q u e s ,
m a k e us to challenge a theory that whenever and wherever there's m a r k e t
economy, differentiation and even polarization of petty c o m m o d i t y pro32
Historical Social Research, Vol. 16 — 1991 — No. 2, 25-39
d u c e r s is an i n e v i t a b l e c o n s e q u e n c e . T h e reality of life is e x t r e m e l y d i v e r s e
a n d t h e r e is a v a r i e t y of t h i n g s , t h a t a r e details, » p a r t i c u l a r i t i e s « f r o m t h e
p o i n t o f view o f t h e w o r l d h i s t o r i c a l d e v e l o p m e n t , a n d t h e r e f o r e a r e o v e r l o o k e d by t h e g e n e r a l t h e o r y , w h i l e a specific h i s t o r i c a l a p p r o a c h c o n s i d e r s
t h e m decisive. T h e e x t e n t a n d p a c e o f t h e petty c o m m o d i t y p r o d u c e r s diff e r e n t i a t i o n p r o c e s s is d e t e r m i n e d by o v e r a l l e c o n o m i c , social a n d political
c o n d i t i o n s of t h e societal life. T h e N e w E c o n o m i c Policy, a p a r t of w h i c h
w a s a f r e e d o m of e x c h a n g e , i n e v i t a b l y led to a large h o u s e h o l d g r o w t h , b u t
d u e to t h e low level of t h e p r o d u c t i v e forces d e v e l o p m e n t in a g r i c u l t u r e ,
t h e s m a l l v o l u m e o f s u r p l u s p r o d u c t , t h e total r u i n o f t h e c o u n t r y b y t w o
d e v a s t a t i n g w a r s t h a t p r o c e s s was e x t r e m e l y slow.
As the simulative model shows, the N E P continuation would not have
r e s u l t e d i n e i t h e r explosive a g r i c u l t u r a l g r o w t h a s s o m e c o n t e n d , o r e c o n o m i c c h a o s a n d social c a t a s t r o p h e s i n t h e village, a s o t h e r s c l a i m .
Notes
1.
F i t z p a t r i c k S. Klassy i p r o b l e m y klassovoj p r i n a d l e z h n o s t i v Sovetsk o i Rossii 2 0 - h g o d o v / / Voprosy istorii, 1990, N 8, s.25.
2.
K o v a l ' c h e n k o I . D . M e t o d y i s t o r i c h e s k o g o i s s l e d o v a n i j a . M.JMauka,
1987.
3.
K o v a l ' c h e n k o I . D . I b i d , s.407.
4.
B o r o d k i n L.I., S v i s h c h e v M . A . S o t s i a l ' n a j a m o b i l ' n o s t v p e r i o d n e p a :
k v o p r o s u o roste k a p i t a l i z m a iz m e l k o g o p r o i z v o d s t v a / / I s t o r i j a
SSSR, 1990, N 5.
5.
Voprosy i s t o c h n i k o v e d e n i j a d i n a m i c h e s k i h p e r e p i s e j 1 9 2 0 - h g o d o v .
I n : M a s s o v y e i s t o c h n i k i p o s o t s i a l ' n o - e k o n o m i c h e s k o j istorii sovetsk o g o o b s h c h e s t v a . M o s k v a , 1979, S. 2 2 8 - 2 6 1 .
6.
K r e s t j a n s k o e k h o z j a i s t v o p o p e r e p i s j a m 1 8 9 9 - 1 9 1 1 gg. E p i f a n s k i j
u e z d , c h . l , 11. Tula, 1916.
7.
See i z d a n i e TsSU D i n a m i k a k r e s t j a n s k i h k h o z j a i s t v v 1920= 1925 gg.
M . - L . , 1931.
8.
A sown a r e a h a s u s u a l l y b e e n t a k e n as a basis of t h e p e a s a n t h o u s e h o l d classification (see Table 1, r e p r e s e n t i n g a typical f r a g m e n t of t h e
source u n d e r consideration).
9.
B a r t h o l o m e w D.J. Stochastic M o d e l s for Social P r o c e s s e s . N . - Y . , Tor o n t o , 1982.
10. S a r a t o v , S t a l i n g r a d , T a m b o v , Tbla, a s well a s U r a l r e g i o n , t h e B a s h k i r
Autonomous Republic and the Autonomous Republic of G e r m a n s of
Volga R e g i o n .
11. T h e C o n s u m p t i v e Region included the provinces of Arkhangelsk,
V l a d i m i r , Vologda, I v a n o v o , V o z n e s e n s k , K o s t r o m a , L e n i n g r a d , M o s cow, N i z h n y N o v g o r o d , N o v g o r o d , P s k o v , S m o l e n s k a n d Y a r o s l a v l .
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Table 1.
Peasants Households Dynamics. Productive Region Russia.
Social-Organic Changes of The Household. 1924-1925.
Table 2.
Peasants Households Dynamics. Productive Region of Russia.
Distribution of Divided Households (%). 1924-1925.
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Table 3.
Peasants Households Dynamics. Productive Region of Russia.
Households Without Social-Organic Changes. 1924-1925.
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Table 4.
The Results of Simulation of Peasants Household Dynamics.
1924-1940.
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Figure 1. The Structure of Peasant Households
Dynamic Model
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Figure 3.
Figure 4.
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Historical Social Research, Vol. 16 — 1991 — No. 2, 25-39
Figure 5.
PEASANT HOUSEHOLDS GROUPS OF PRODUCTIVE REG.
39