On the Path to Pre-crime? Assessing US Domestic Counterradicalization Policy Mohammad Islam May 21, 2012 CISAC Honors Thesis Advised by Professor Martha Crenshaw Table of Contents Abstract………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………...1 Chapter 1: Introduction………………………………………………………………………………………………….2 The Issue…………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….4 On the Agenda…………………………………………………………………………………………………………….6 Benchmarks………………………………………………………………………………………………………………..9 Conclusion………………………………………………………………………………………………………………..10 Chapter 2: Conceptualizing Radicalization………………………………………………………...................12 Local Law Enforcement………………….………………………………………………………………………….14 Federal Government………………………………………………………………………………………………….18 Debate Outside of Government………..…………………………………………………………………………25 Conclusion…………………………………………………………………………………………………………….…..27 Chapter 3: Radicalization on the Agenda……………………………………………………….......................29 Theory of Agenda‐Setting…………………………………………………………………………………………..29 2001 Lackawanna Six………….……………………………………………………..………………………………32 2002 Portland Seven………………………………………………………………………………………………….34 2004 Madrid Bombings…………………………...……………………………………………………..…….…….35 2005 London Bombings…………………………...…………………….………………………………..…………36 Homegrown Terrorism Prevention Act of 2007…………………………………………………..………39 2007‐2011 Homegrown Terror Cases………………………………………………..……………………….41 2011 Peter King Radicalization Hearings…………………………………………………………………….43 Scholarly Debate………………………………………………………………………………………………………..44 Conclusion………………………………………………………………………………………………………………...49 Chapter 4: Counter‐radicalization policy……………………………………………………….......................50 Messaging………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….51 Community Engagement…….……………………………………………………..……………………………….52 Domestic Intelligence………………………………………………………………………………………..……….57 Debating Policy………………………………………………………………………………………………………….64 Conclusion…………………………………………………………………………………………………………………72 Chapter 5: Benchmarks………………………………………………………………………………….....................74 Bureaucratic Organizational Theory…………………………………………………………………………...74 Defining Effectiveness………………………………………………………………………………………………..76 Community Engagement……………………………………………………………………………………………81 Domestic Intelligence………………………………………………………………………………………..……….83 Chapter 6: Conclusion…………………………………………………………………………………........................86 Policy Recommendations………….………………………………………………………………………….........89 Works Cited………….…………………………………………………………………………………............................93 Appendix A: Cases of Homegrown Extremism……………………………………………………………..100 Appendix B: Congressional Hearings on Radicalization………………………………………………..110 Acknowledgements This thesis could not be possible without the support and guidance I received from numerous individuals. Their contribution in shaping my work is beyond calculation. First, I would like to thank my advisor, Professor Martha Crenshaw, who was extremely generous with her time during the course of my research and provided me with invaluable advice and perspective on my topic. Her unparalleled expertise in counterterrorism and counterradicalization provided great guidance in structuring my arguments and overall thesis. Her willingness to read through multiple drafts of my chapters and provide detailed comments for improvement was exceptionally helpful. Second, I would like to thank Professor Chip Blacker for his thoughtful questioning and emphasis on preciseness during our honors seminar that helped guide my research process. Third, our teaching assistant David Blum provided us with helpful advice on requirements and logistics throughout the year. Professor Thomas Fingar, who led the summer seminar, was extremely helpful in framing my puzzle and research question in the initial stages of my research. Fourth, I thank Ben Hall for his fascinating law enforcement expertise, pointed questioning, and numerous comments and criticisms that helped me produce a better thesis. Lastly, I want to thank all of my fellow honors students, whose academic pursuits and camaraderie provided inspiration for me to pursue my own. Abbreviations and Acronyms ACLU American Civil Liberties Union AP Associated Press BCOT Building Communities of Trust CAB Community Awareness Briefing CAIR Council on American-Islamic Relations CIA Central Intelligence Agency CRCL DHS Office for Civil Rights and Civil Liberties CVE Countering Violent Extremism DHS Department of Homeland Security DOJ Department of Justice FBI Federal Bureau of Investigation GPRA Government Performance and Results Accountability JTTF Joint Terrorism Task Force LAPD Los Angeles Police Department MPAC Muslim Public Affairs Council NCTC National Counterterrorism Center NYPD New York Police Department STREET Strategy to Re-Empower and Educate Teenagers List of Figures Figure 1: Number of Homegrown Extremism Cases Identified by Muslim Community Members 82 Figure 2: Number of Homegrown Extremism Incidents without Informants or Undercover Agents 84 Abstract From 9/11 to 2011, there were 192 cases of Islamist homegrown terrorism, and almost half of those attacks have occurred in the years 2009 and 2010. The apparent surge in homegrown terror cases raises questions about the efficacy of the government’s attempt at preventing homegrown terrorism and countering radicalization. This thesis investigates the government’s definition of radicalization, its counter-radicalization policies, the metrics used to evaluate policy success, and the pathway of radicalization to the national public policy agenda. The results show that there is a discrepancy between federal government agencies and local law enforcement agencies on the role of Islamic ideology in radicalization. This discrepancy has been reflected in policy, leading law enforcement to pursue domestic intelligence collection activities at the early stages of radicalization, increasing the potential to confuse expressive forms of Islamic religiosity with radicalization. The result is the lack of a unified domestic counterradicalization policy on the national and local levels. The quantitative metrics the government has used to evaluate counter-radicalization policy have weak explanatory power, highlighting the limitations of quantitative metrics in evaluating counter-radicalization policy success. Given the important place homegrown terrorism has on the national agenda and the media and public’s sensitivity to terrorism after 9/11, radicalization will likely continue to be an important issue in the near future. Islam 1 Chapter 1: Introduction The threat is real, the threat is different, the threat is constant. The threat has changed from simply worrying about foreigners coming here, to worrying about people in the United States, American citizens -- raised here, born here, and who for whatever reason, have decided that they are going to become radicalized and take up arms against the nation in which they were born.1 - Eric Holder, U.S. Attorney General There have been 192 cases of homegrown terrorism in the United States from the September 11 attacks to 2011, and almost half of those cases have occurred in the last two years.2 Although Al-Qaeda’s influence in the world has been waning,3 there seems to be a paradoxical surge in the number of homegrown terrorism cases. Does this signal a growing trend of homegrown terrorism in the United States? Are current counter-radicalization strategies failing? The United States has developed policies to deal with the radicalization threat, but it has been forced to navigate difficult waters in trying to ensure national security while preserving civil liberties. The large number of cases of homegrown terrorism suggests that the policies are not effectively deterring individuals from committing acts of violence. Although there are various types of domestic terrorism, this paper will focus on terrorism associated with and inspired by Al-Qaeda and its affiliates because it poses the greatest and preeminent terrorist threat to the United States.4 Consequently, this type of terrorism has been the focus of public alarm and legal and policy initiatives taken by the U.S. government. Moreover, 1 Holder, Eric. ABC “Good Morning America” Interview, December 21, 2010. A full list of all cases considered are provided in Appendix A. 3 National Intelligence Council. Global Trends 2025: A Transformed World. Government Printing Office, 2008, p. 69. 4 National Security Strategy. Washington: White House, 2010, p. 19. 2 Islam 2 since the narrative that Al-Qaeda is trying to push to radicalize individuals within the United States has largely targeted the Muslim community, government policy directed at this segment of the population will be the focus of this paper. In order to investigate this apparent surge in homegrown extremism, I ask the following questions: 1) How significant of a threat is homegrown terrorism, and is the threat increasing? 2) What are the U.S. counter-radicalization strategies and how effective are they? This thesis seeks to provide a useful guide for policymakers to understand the government’s approach to counter-radicalization and to glean important insights about how the policies can be amended to be more effective, or if they should exist at all. This chapter will provide an introduction to the definition of radicalization, its path to the public policy agenda, and to the benchmarks in evaluating counter-radicalization policy. I introduce these concepts in particular because they represent the gaps in the existing literature that this thesis aims to contribute to fulfilling. Chapter 2 fully investigates the definition of radicalization – exploring how different actors within the government, divided into law enforcement agencies and the federal government agencies, understand radicalization and the influence of Islamic ideology in their definitions. Chapter 3 uses Kingdon’s model of agenda-setting to analyze how the issue of radicalization came onto the U.S. national public policy agenda. The scholarly debate in the current literature about whether radicalization deserves that position on the agenda is also presented, with the discussion divided into two schools of thought: opponents who do not believe radicalization is a significant enough problem to be on the agenda and proponents who acknowledge the problem is limited, but emphasize the powerful repercussions if it is not dealt with. Chapter 4 delves into the Islam 3 government’s counter-radicalization policies, analyzed at the federal and local law enforcement levels. The scholarly debate in the literature about counter-radicalization policy is more nuanced. I present the argument of scholars who believe there should be no counter-radicalization policy and then the internal debate on various aspects of counter-radicalization policy by scholars who believe the government must have one. Since metrics will be an important part of investigating the efficacy of those policies, Chapter 5 is devoted to analyzing the metrics government agencies have used to evaluate their counter-radicalization policies and what statistical conclusions about policy progress can be reached from those metrics. Chapter 6 will discuss the policy implications of this thesis and offer recommendations for policymakers about how they can reconsider or reevaluate the current U.S. government approach to combat radicalization and homegrown extremism. The Issue Definitions are important when discussing radicalization and homegrown terrorism because of the ambiguity surrounding the terms. Homegrown terrorism is the easier of the two to define. While the focus was primarily on the threat of Al‐Qaeda operatives attacking the United States, the attention has now turned to radicalized individuals who have lived substantial portions of their lives in the United States and are generally well integrated in American society. This represents a very different situation from Islamist domestic terrorism in Europe, in which the integration of Muslims into European society is a central issue. In this thesis I define homegrown terrorism to be violent acts committed against American targets at home or abroad by U.S. citizens or residents.5 Radicalization is much more difficult to define. As mentioned above, Chapter 2 will be devoted to fully examining 5 I have included both legal and illegal residents in the subset of U.S. residents on the basis that they underwent their process of radicalization in the United States. See Appendix A for all the cases considered. Islam 4 the government’s definition of radicalization, but what can be generally said is that radicalization is a process that individuals undergo on the pathway to violence. The culmination of the process is a homegrown terrorist attack. However, it is important to note that not all individuals undergoing radicalization will reach the point where they feel it is necessary to commit violent acts. We can further divide radicalization into two categories: behavioral radicalization and cognitive radicalization. Behavioral radicalization represents the point where the individual feels it is necessary to commit an act of violence.6 This has also been referred to as violent extremism by the federal government. Cognitive radicalization is the support or adoption of violent ideas without the final step to engage in violence.7 However, even these definitions have inherent ambiguities, as I will show in Chapter 2. For example, there is not always a clear distinction between violence and nonviolence and between an individual who is a real threat versus someone who shares the same core religious ideology but is entirely nonviolent. There is a major discrepancy between the federal government’s approach to defining radicalization and that of local law enforcement.8 For example, The White House has not attributed any specific religious ideology as the driving force behind violent extremism other than to mention these violent extremist attacks are directed or inspired by Al-Qaeda and its affiliates. In contrast, the New York Police Department’s radicalization report specifically identifies this ideology as jihadist or jihadi-Salafi, the driving force behind acts of “autonomous jihad.”9 The White House is much more cautious about linking the Islamic religion with acts of violent extremism – indeed Islam is only mentioned in the White House strategy in the context of 6 Neumann, Peter. “Preventing Violent Radicalization in America.” Bipartisan Policy Center. Jun. 2011, p. 16. Ibid. 8 The federal government is defined to be federal agencies including the White House, DHS, and NCTC. The local law enforcement agencies considered are the NYPD, LAPD, and the local offices of the FBI. 9 Bhatt, Arvin, and Mitchell D. Silber, “Radicalization in the West: The Homegrown Threat.” New York: NYPD Intelligence Division, City of New York Police Department, 2007, p. 6. 7 Islam 5 reassuring the world that the U.S. is not at war with Islam.10 Although the NYPD states that this driving ideology is an extreme and minority interpretation of Islam, it nonetheless describes Islamic ideology as the foundation for radicalization. Thus this discrepancy between the local and national levels of government underscores the fact that there is a lack of a clear definition of radicalization among government entities. The federal government generally perceives weak links between extreme Islamic views and violence while local law enforcement generally sees strong links. The presence of these contrasting concepts can be further linked to a shift in terminology between the Bush administration and the Obama administration. The national security strategy and national strategy for combating terrorism released by the Bush administration in 2006 highlight the threat of Islamic violent extremism, and state that democracies like the United States are not immune to homegrown terrorism, as was shown by the July 7 bombings in London by Muslim British nationals.11 As noted above, the Obama administration rejects placing an Islamic designation on violent extremism, and instead describes the driving force behind radicalization simply as Al-Qaeda’s ideology.12 Thus there has been a clear shift in the definition of radicalization from the Bush to Obama administrations. On the Agenda There has been much discussion on why people become radicalized and analyses of government deficiencies in policy. Moreover, debates among academics and government officials about whether radicalization should be on the public policy agenda are present in the existing literature. However, there is a gap in the literature in how exactly this issue came to the public policy agenda in the first place. This will be the focus of Chapter 3. In order to understand 10 Empowering Local Partners to Prevent Violent Extremism in the United States, p. 7. National Strategy for Combating Terrorism. [Washington, D.C.: Executive Office of the President], 2006, p. 10. 12 Empowering Local Partners to Prevent Violent Extremism in the United States, p. 7. 11 Islam 6 how radicalization came onto the agenda, we need to understand how issues generally are placed on the U.S. policy agenda. Kingdon’s model of agenda setting will provide the theoretical basis for understanding the agenda setting process. Kingdon defines the agenda as the list of subjects or issues that government officials and people outside of government working with those officials are paying serious attention to at any given time. Three sets of variables – problems, policies, and politics – interact to determine what gets on the agenda.13 Kingdon defines the problem stream as “the perceptions of problems as public issues requiring government action.”14 The policy stream consists of analysts examining problems and proposing solutions, and the political stream encompasses everything from the public mood to interest group campaigns. Agenda-setting opportunities, called policy windows, open and close based on the interaction of these three streams. Policy entrepreneurs, as Kingdon calls them, take advantage of open policy windows to advocate for issues they would like to see placed on the policy agenda. In their analysis of Kingdon’s analytical framework, Howlett, Perl, and Ramesh determine that most problems come to the agenda because of feedback from existing programs or because of sudden, unexpected events.15 Thomas Birkland further developed this idea of these sudden and unpredictable events, which he called focusing events, influencing the agenda setting process. Birkland provides examples of past focusing events that had major effects on the public policy process, such as the Exxon Valdez spill in 1989. A year after the spill the Oil Pollution Act of 1990 was passed in reaction. The oil spill helped to dramatize the problem of oil pollution and bring it to the top of the agenda. Without it, Birkland contends the fourteen-year-long gridlock over comprehensive oil spill legislation would have likely continued until some other 13 Kingdon, John W. Agendas, Alternatives, and Public Policies. Boston: Little, Brown, 1984, p. 20. Ibid. 15 Howlett, Michael, Anthony Perl, and M Ramesh. Studying Public Policy: Policy Cycles & Policy Subsystems. 3rd ed. Don Mills, Ont.: Oxford University Press, 2009, p. 104. 14 Islam 7 event incentivized Congress to take rapid action on the problem.16 Although all focusing events do not necessarily spur immediate policy action, they can grab the policymakers’ attention with the right mix of political entrepreneurs. The starting point of chronological events that brought radicalization and homegrown terrorism to the agenda will be the September 11, 2001 attacks. Although there were incidents of terrorism related to Islamist extremism in the United States before this time, 9/11 marks a major turning point where terrorism soared to the top of the public policy agenda. Thus the policy, problem and political streams that existed from 9/11 to 2011 will be investigated to determine when and how radicalization came to be an integral part of the national counterterrorism agenda, a phenomenon that has not been investigated in the existing literature. A look at the national security strategies employed by the Bush administration provides some clues as to the timeframe of the radicalization agenda setting. As mentioned above in the discussion of the disparities between the Obama and Bush administrations’ radical ideology terminology, homegrown terrorism was part of the Bush administration’s national strategy on combating terrorism in 2006. However, his 2003 strategy has no mention of radicalization or homegrown terrorism. While it does emphasize the need to identify and locate terrorist organizations operating abroad and at home,17 there is no indication that the National Security Council at that point in time had in mind the threat of U.S. citizens or residents undergoing a process of radicalization and committing violent attacks. The Department of Homeland Security strategies show a similar trend. The 2007 National Strategy for Homeland Security emphasizes numerous times that the United States is not immune to the threat of “Islamic extremist 16 Birkland, Thomas A. After Disaster: Agenda Setting, Public Policy, and Focusing Events. Washington, D.C.: Georgetown University Press, 1997, p. 3. 17 National Strategy for Combating Terrorism. [Washington, D.C.: Executive Office of the President], 2003, p. 16. Islam 8 radicalization” within its own borders.18 However, the 2002 strategy makes no mention of Islamic radicalization or homegrown terrorism in its blueprint of domestic counterterrorism strategies.19 Thus the literature shows that in the 2002-2003 timeframe there is attention given to attacks within the homeland, but no focus on individuals radicalizing to commit those attacks – instead it seeks to prevent existing terrorists in the United States from being able to carry out attacks, similar to the 9/11 hijackers. The 2006-2007 strategies show a clear shift to incorporate radicalization – by this time it was already on the public policy agenda. Since Kingdon and Birkland’s models predict that a critical event such as a crisis can bring an issue to the agenda, I will investigate the important instances of domestic terrorism that occurred around this period, including the 2004 Madrid train bombings and the 2005 London bombings, along with the policy entrepreneurs in the United States that helped the issue ascend to the important position in the government’s agenda that it currently has. Benchmarks As I will show in Chapter 4, many scholars have emphasized the need to develop metrics for counter-radicalization as an important part of the government’s overall policy. For example, in comparing the British Prevent policy to the US domestic counter-radicalization policy, Peter Neumann argues that “neither of the two policies has established metrics that would make it possible to measure and compare their effectiveness.”20 Lorenzo Vidino notes that the government has attempted to set metrics, such as “simple quantitative analyses of program participation to more complex indexes seeking to determine the level of community 18 National Strategy for Homeland Security. [Washington, D.C.: The White House], 2007, p. 6. National Strategy for Homeland Security. [Washington, D.C.: The White House], 2002. 20 Neumann, Peter. “Preventing Violent Radicalization in America.” Bipartisan Policy Center. Jun. 2011, p. 22-24. 19 Islam 9 engagement,” but none of these attempts provide a clear assessment of policy progress.21 These scholars criticize the government for not having adequate benchmarks but call on them to establish “empirical metrics” without providing guidelines as to how this can be accomplished. There is a gap in the literature in terms of a full evaluation of the metrics the government has been using for counter-radicalization policy. Conclusion I have shown that there are three significant gaps in the existing literature that will be addressed in the additional chapters of this thesis. First, although there are scholars who debate about whether radicalization is a serious enough problem to be on the public policy agenda, there is no discussion about exactly how radicalization got on the agenda. In order to conduct this analysis I plan to look at events chronologically starting from the 9/11 attacks to 2011. Second, there is little discussion in the present literature about counter-radicalization benchmarks. There lacks a detailed analysis of metrics the government has used to evaluate the success of its counter-radicalization programs. Third, the current literature provides few analyses of the government’s definition of radicalization. This thesis will show the discrepancies in definition of radicalization that exist between the federal government and local law enforcement: law enforcement describes Islamic ideology as the root of radicalization while the federal government refuses to. In the final analysis, the central question about the effectiveness of U.S. counterradicalization policy is an important one that needs to be answered. Over one trillion dollars has already been spent on domestic homeland security since 9/11.22 This paper will seek to 21 Vidino, Lorenzo. “Countering Radicalization in America: Lessons from Europe.” United States Institute of Peace Special Report 262, 2010, p. 10. 22 Mueller, John, and Mark Stewart. “Money can’t buy zero risk.” The Australian Financial Review, May 20, 2011, p. 3. Islam 10 determine whether the dollars spent on counter-radicalization are justified, using the government’s own metrics for evaluation. This research will also shed light on how significant a problem radicalization is and whether it deserves to be on the public policy agenda. It will also address the specific policies counter-radicalization policy should consist of, if it is to be implemented at all. The various insights this research can provide coupled with the resources and lives at stake make this assessment of counter-radicalization policy effectiveness extremely important. Islam 11 Chapter 2: Conceptualizing Radicalization In order to understand policy, we must understand the concepts that form its foundation. In this chapter I will present the government’s definition of radicalization to allow the reader to have a better understanding of how different agencies’ interpretations of radicalization has led to the creation of their policies. Radicalization has been widely used by both government officials and academics in the counterterrorism field to explain the emergence of Al-Qaeda inspired homegrown terrorism. However, a close look at the government’s definition of radicalization indicates a lack of uniformity. In this chapter I will argue that there is a discrepancy in the concept of radicalization between the federal government and local law enforcement regarding the influence of Islamic ideology. The federal agencies of interest include the Department of Homeland Security and the National Counterterrorism Center. The local law enforcement agencies I will consider are the Federal Bureau of Investigation,1 New York Police Department, and the Los Angeles Police Department.2 In addition to these government participants, I will address non-governmental actors such as academic scholars, Muslim communities, and civil rights groups. The analysis will focus on scholarly community’s debate about the concept of radicalization and the American Muslim community and its allies’ response to the government’s definitions. The importance of concepts and definitions are inherent in the fact that one cannot make policy around an issue or problem without defining what it is, and I will seek to show that the divergent understanding of radicalization among government actors will only help exacerbate this problem. 1 Although the FBI is a federal agency, it operates on a local level with its 56 field offices. There are of course some other local governments engaged in radicalization work, such as the Ohio Department of Public Safety. See Working with Communities to Disrupt Terror Plots: Hearing Before the Subcommittee on Intelligence, Information Sharing, and Terrorism Risk Assessment of the House Committee on Homeland Security, One Hundred Eleventh Congress, Second Session, 2010. However, the number of homegrown terror attacks in their respective states and the size of their programs make the LAPD and NYPD arguably the most important local government agencies to consider. 2 Islam 12 Although there are undeniably various forms of radicalization, this thesis will focus on terrorism associated with and inspired by Al-Qaeda and its affiliates, because it poses the greatest and preeminent threat to the United States.3 Since the narrative that Al-Qaeda is trying to push to radicalize individuals within the United States has largely targeted the Muslim community, government policy directed at this segment of the population will be my focus. To offer a fair analysis of the government’s understanding, it is important to set the context: radicalization is not easy to define. Radicalization does not always lead to violence. As introduced in Chapter 1, radicalization can be categorized into two areas: cognitive radicalization, the adoption of extreme ideas, and behavioral or violent radicalization, which is the culmination of the radicalization process that leads to acts of violence. However, the delineation between cognitive radicalization and behavioral radicalization is not always clear. In the United States, the First Amendment protects free speech, even radical speech. The job of law enforcement is extremely difficult when trying to navigate the waters between an individual who is an actual threat and one who is simply outwardly religious. Moreover, radicalization is a general term that can be highly subjective. It applies to the young men and women in 19th century imperial Russia who comprised the People’s Will, the organization that succeeded in assassinating Czar Alexander II.4 It can also describe the process by which the Norwegian political extremist Anders Breivik underwent, and prompted him to bomb government buildings in Oslo before carrying out a mass shooting at a youth political summer camp.5 Radicalization is a multi-staged process that can, but not necessarily must, culminate in a terrorist attack. Thus government officials and law enforcement must work in a 3 National Security Strategy, [Washington, D.C.: The White House], 2010, p. 19. McCauley, Clark R, and Sophia Moskalenko. Friction: How Radicalization Happens to Them and Us. Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2011, p. 5. 5 Goodman, David J., and Elisa Mala. “At Least 80 Dead in Norway Shooting.” New York Times, July 22, 2011. 4 Islam 13 complex and ambiguous environment to try to distinguish real threats from displays of Islamic religiosity. The existing literature on radicalization does not provide a thorough analysis of the government’s definition of radicalization. How pronounced are the discrepancies in how different branches of the government view radicalization? This is a particularly important question because if the government cannot agree on a definition of radicalization, can it develop a coherent policy for it? I will investigate the discrepancies by looking at how local law enforcement agencies and the federal government view radicalization differently. Local Law Enforcement 1) New York Police Department The NYPD describes radicalization as a process that drives “unremarkable” people to commit terrorist attacks. Radicalization consists of four distinct stages in a linear process:6 Pre-radicalization Pre-radicalization is defined to be the point of origin for individuals before they undergo the radicalization process. Self-identification Self-identification is the phase in which individuals start to explore Salafi Islam and begin associating with others who share this same ideology. The transition from a previous ideology to this new one is caused by a triggering event, which can be economic, social, political, or personal. 6 Bhatt, Arvin, and Mitchell D. Silber, “Radicalization in the West: The Homegrown Threat.” New York: NYPD Intelligence Division, City of New York Police Department, 2007, p. 6-7. Islam 14 Indoctrination Indoctrination is the stage at which the individual has fully adopted Jihadi Salafi ideology and his beliefs become more extreme. He has also realized his ideology must be buttressed by action, called militant jihad. The group of similar minded individuals that he has aligned himself with reinforce this view. Jihadization Individual members of the group recognize their duty to participate in jihad and designate themselves as mujahedeen. The group begins the operational planning, preparation, and execution for a terrorist attack. The NYPD’s definition of radicalization is one that clearly invokes the Islamic nature of radicalization that is inspired by Al-Qaeda. The ideology of radicalization is defined as jihadi or jihadi-Salafi ideology that drives young people living in the West to carry out attacks of “autonomous jihad” against their host countries.7 Although the NYPD states that this driving ideology is an extreme and minority interpretation of Islam, it nonetheless describes Islamic ideology as the foundation for radicalization. 2) Federal Bureau of Investigation The FBI’s conceptualization of radicalization is very comparable to that of the NYPD. In a report published in 2006, the FBI describes the radicalization process for an individual who converts to Islam and eventually commits an act of jihad. The FBI states that “radicalized US converts to Islam and their potential to attack the Homeland are growing concerns of the US Intelligence Community (USIC).”8 The FBI perception of radicalization has also remained constant between administrations. Even with the transition to the Obama administration, the FBI 7 Ibid., p. 6. The Radicalization Process: From Conversion to Jihad [Washington, D.C.: Federal Bureau of Investigation], 2006, p. 4. 8 Islam 15 still defines radicalization and Al-Qaeda inspired ideology in terms of Islamic ideology. The FBI continues to be concerned about “homegrown individuals engaged in Islamist extremism.”9 The FBI defines radicalization as a cycle that consists of four stages,10 a religious conveyor-belt model similar to the one the NYPD has adopted. Pre-radicalization During this stage the individual converts to Islam, or an individual who is born Muslim reinterprets his faith to adhere here to a more extreme form of the religion. The motivating factor can be internal or external from the influence of a group. The convert can be influenced by extremists in any number of locations such as mosques, prisons, and internet chat rooms. Identification The individual accepts a radical ideology and identifies with a particular extremist cause. He will also support violent acts against the United States and its allies, but not necessarily feel the need yet to take action. Overseas travel or continued contact with like-minded individuals can strengthen his resolve. Indoctrination The convert realizes that he must act in order to fulfill the needs of his ideology. The individual now actively participates in a group or has created a “jihad environment” for himself. He feels the need to prove himself for a greater cause. Action The final stage consists of participation, which can be violent or nonviolent, in a terrorist attack to inflict damage to the enemy. Each terrorist attack will consist of three stages: preparation, planning, and execution. 9 Heinke, Daniel and Ryan Hunter. “Radicalization of Islamist Terrorists in the Western World.” FBI Law Enforcement Bulletin, September 2011. 10 The Radicalization Process: From Conversion to Jihad, p. 5-8. Islam 16 High-ranking FBI officials have verified this definition of radicalization through congressional testimony. In 2006 Donald Van Duyn, Deputy Assistant Director of the Counterterrorism Division of the FBI, testified before the House Subcommittee on Intelligence, Information Sharing, and Risk Assessment that Islamic radicalization of U.S. persons is a growing concern.11 However, Van Duyn notes that “the issue is not Islam itself but how the religious ideology is used by violent extremists to inspire and justify their actions.” As I have stated earlier, understanding definitions are critical because they will shape policy. In order to prevent radicalization from progressing to the final stage, the definitions and conceptualizations of what constitutes indicators of radicalization will be important in shaping counter-radicalization policy. For example, a preliminary list of indicators that the FBI has assembled to identify an individual undergoing radicalization include behavior such as growing facial hair, wearing traditional Muslim attire, and frequent attendance at a mosque or prayer group.12 These indicators seem to conflict with the Obama administration’s goal to separate strong religious beliefs from radicalization. The policy ramifications in defining indicators in this way will be explored in Chapter 4. 3) Los Angeles Police Department The Los Angeles Police Department has taken a more moderate approach towards defining radicalization with respect to the other law enforcement agencies. For example, the LAPD has established a partnership with DHS to create a strategy to counter violent extremism.13 The LAPD has taken great precaution in dealing with its Muslim communities to 11 Van Duyn, Donald. Islamic Radicalization: Testimony Before the Intelligence, Information Sharing, and Terrorism Risk Assessment Subcommittee of the Homeland Security Committee, House of Representatives, One Hundred Ninth Congress, Hearing Held September 20, 2006. Washington: U.S. G.P.O., 2006. 12 The Radicalization Process: From Conversion to Jihad, p. 10. 13 Downing, Michael P. The Role of Local Law Enforcement in Countering Violent Extremism: Testimony Before the Committee on Homeland Security, Senate, One Hundred Tenth Congress, First Session, Hearing Held October 30, 2007. Washington: U.S. G.P.O., 2007. Islam 17 avoid alienating them, arguably more so than the NYPD and FBI. However, its leaders have not shied away from understanding the threat in terms of Islamic ideology. Before the Senate Committee on Homeland Security and Government Affairs, Michael Downing, commanding officer of the Counter-terrorism and Criminal Intelligence Bureau of the LAPD, testified that the problem we face in the U.S. is that of “political jihadists,” individuals who seek to create discord in the community and a sense of alienation of Muslims to in order to further a political cause.14 Downing notes that the LAPD has been successful in helping magnify the moderate Muslim voice to prevent extremists from gaining support within the Muslim community, thereby suppressing radicalization. Given Downing’s statements, we can conclude that the LAPD, like the NYPD, has not shied away from identifying the Islamic origin of its counter-radicalization policy, although it has taken a much more moderate approach, which is represented in its policies that are discussed in Chapter 4. These major local law enforcement agencies have clearly noted the Islamic influence in the radicalization process. They identify what they call jihadi ideology adapted from Salafi or Wahhabi Islamic teachings to be the underlying impetus for radicalization. Although there is consistency among local law enforcement, the same cannot be said between the federal government and local government. Federal Government 1) The Obama White House The White House has not named any specific religious ideology as the driving force behind violent extremism other than to mention violent extremist attacks are directed or inspired by Al-Qaeda and its affiliates. In the Obama administration’s counter-radicalization strategy, a 14 Ibid. Islam 18 violent extremist is an individual who supports or commits ideologically motivated violence to further political goals. The individual has reached the point where he or she intends to commit an act of violence.15 While the White House states that it will work to counter the range of ideologies that radicalize individuals, the radicalization process is not defined and thus the administration’s understanding of cognitive radicalization, supporting or adopting violent ideas without taking the final step to engage in actual violence, is ambiguous. This is not necessarily the case with local law enforcement. The NYPD clearly states that while at one time it would have the indicator of an attack be at the point in which a group would actually plan an attack, now it has shifted its “focus to a much earlier point - a point where we believe the potential terrorist or group of terrorists begin and progress through a process of radicalization.”16 The LAPD holds a similar stance. Downing reassured the senators during his testimony that although law enforcement’s ultimate goal is to achieve the loyalty and good citizenship of Muslim-Americans, the department will not slow down its efforts to “hunt down and neutralize small numbers of ‘clusters’ on the criminal side of the radicalization trajectory.” Thus the differences between the White House and local law enforcement are twofold: 1) the Islamic label put on the ideology that drives these individuals to radicalize and 2) the perception of cognitive radicalization. The latter discrepancy has particularly important policy ramifications. Since the NYPD intends to identify the point where radicalization begins, the possibility arises of criminalizing phases of the radicalization process that exist in a gray area, such as having “militant ideas” but not acting on them. The LAPD also is willing to “neutralize” individuals on the criminal side of the radicalization trajectory, but it remains unclear exactly where the line is drawn for criminal versus legal behavior in the radicalization process. On the 15 Empowering Local Partners to Prevent Violent Extremism In the United States. [Washington, D.C.: Executive Office of the President], 2011, p. 1. 16 Bhatt, et al., p. 5. Islam 19 other hand, the Obama administration, which outlines a high-level strategy to counter radicalization through community engagement and capacity building, is focused on stopping those who have radicalized to the point where they are willing to commit violence. The White House takes a much more cautionary approach when dealing with the earlier stages of radicalization, warning that strong religious beliefs, including nonviolent Salafi ideology, are protected by the First Amendment and should not be confused with violent extremism.17 2) The Bush White House How did the current administration and local law enforcement come to different definitions of radicalization? Did this divide between the federal government and local law enforcement always exist? A close look at the counter-terrorism strategies of the Bush administration and the Obama administration shows a transition in the conceptualization of radicalization and homegrown terrorism. The national security strategy and national strategy for combating terrorism released by the Bush administration in 2006 highlight the threat of Islamic violent extremism, and state that democracies like the United States are not immune to homegrown terrorism, as was shown by the July 7 bombings in London by Muslim British nationals.18 The Bush administration had no reservations about defining the problem as one with Islamic roots. Although President Bush has stated numerous times the need to separate terrorism from the faith of Islam, the administration still defined violent extremism as Islamic, perpetrated by individuals “who hate what America stands for.”19 The Obama administration has not been willing to take the same approach when it comes to the radicalization concept. President Obama made it a point from the very beginning of his presidency to reassure Muslims at home and abroad that his administration will seek a new way 17 Empowering Local Partners to Prevent Violent Extremism in the United States, p. 8. National Strategy for Combating Terrorism. [Washington, D.C.: Executive Office of the President], 2006, p. 10. 19 Khan, Suhail A. “American’s First Muslim President.” Foreign Policy, August 23, 2010, p. 1. 18 Islam 20 forward with the Muslim world.20 In his 2011 State of the Union address, Obama reassured Muslim Americans that although extremists will try to inspire acts of violence, the strength of our communities would provide the resolve to respond.21 Moreover he noted that Muslim Americans are part of the American family, attempting to counter the atmosphere of alienation that Muslim Americans have felt since 9/11, with a majority stating in Pew polls conducted in 2007 and 2011 that practicing their faith has been more difficult since 9/11.22 The shift in terminology from the Bush administration the Obama administration begets the question: why was there not a similar shift in terminology with local law enforcement? The FBI, although operates locally, is under the jurisdiction of the Department of Justice, a federal government agency – why did they not restructure their definition of radicalization? The answer is not completely clear. Although local law enforcement agencies like the NYPD receive federal funding dollars, they largely operate autonomously. For example, some of the controversial domestic surveillance programs the NYPD has used, described in detail in Chapter 4, elicited no comment from the Obama administration, although other politicians including the New Jersey governor and members of Congress have criticized the NYPD for these programs.23 Moreover, although the Bush administration finished its two terms and ended its control of the White House, the head of the FBI that President Bush appointed and the head of the NYPD continued to lead their respective organizations. Robert Mueller, who has been FBI Director since September 4, 2001, has addressed the threat of Islamic radicalization during the tenure of the Obama administration and Raymond Kelly, NYPD Commissioner since 2002, has vigorously 20 Obama, Barack. A Moment In History: the Inauguration of Barack Obama. [United States]: MPI Home Video, 2009. 21 Obama, Barack. Presidential Address Before a Joint Session of Congress: Message From the President of the United States Transmitting the President's Address Before a Joint Session of Congress On the State of the Union. Washington: U.S. G.P.O., 2011. 22 Muslim Americans: No Signs of Growth in Alienation or Support for Terrorism. Pew Research Center, August 30, 2011. 23 DeFalco, Beth. “Chris Christie Criticizes NYPD Surveillance Secrecy.” Huffington Post, February 29, 2012. Islam 21 defended his clandestine programs targeted at the American Muslim community. Thus, although officials have not explicitly made comments about why they did not solely adopt the Obama administration’s violent extremism, we can reasonably say that the leadership of the law enforcement agencies likely had important effect on the decision to continue to use Bush-era terminology. Moreover, both Bush, who appointed Mueller, and Michael Bloomberg, who appointed Kelly, were Republicans, highlighting the partisan divide that exists on the issue between Republicans in the Bush administration and Democrats in the Obama administration.24 3) Department of Homeland Security In addition to the White House, the other major federal players in the homegrown terrorism arena are the FBI, Congress, and the Department of Homeland Security. DHS, created after 9/11 with the passage of the Homeland Security Act of 2002, has been charged with the principal task of preventing terrorist attacks in the United States.25 Unsurprisingly, the department’s definitions of the problem have fluctuated with the administration in the White House. The 2007 National Strategy for Homeland Security emphasizes numerous times that the United States is not immune to the threat of “Islamic extremist radicalization” within its own borders.26 During the Obama administration’s term, with the introduction of the violent extremism terminology, the Department of Homeland Security has been more cautionary about assigning an Islamic label to describe radicalization. John Cohen, the head of the program on countering violent extremism, has stated that his organization is not even interested in the “radicalization label” and questions the utility of using terms like “jihadist” or “Islamist,” which 24 Although Bloomberg won his latest mayoral campaign as an Independent, he was a member of the Republican Party from 2001 to 2007. See Chan, Sewell. “Bloomberg Leaving Republican Party.” New York Times, June 19, 2007. 25 Homeland Security Act of 2002: Report Together with Minority and Dissenting Views (to Accompany H.R. 5005) (including Cost Estimate of the Congressional Budget Office). [Washington, D.C.: U.S. G.P.O., 2002. 26 National Strategy for Homeland Security [Washington, D.C.: The White House], 2007, p. 6. Islam 22 have different interpretations for different people.27 DHS Secretary Janet Napolitano has made limited use of the Islamist term, instead referring to it as Al-Qaeda’s ideology and underscoring the point that “violent extremism isn’t constrained by international borders, or by any single ideology.”28 Moreover, ethnicity, religion, or cultural background does not explain why certain individuals chose to go down a violent path and commit acts of terrorism. 4) Congress Much of the hype around radicalization has actually not come from the executive branch of the federal government, but rather from Congress. The fact that there are so many members of Congress with different views on homeland security makes it difficult for any uniform definition of radicalization to emerge. In April of 2007, Jane Harman, a California Democrat, introduced a bill to set up a commission to study violent radicalization. The bill did not make any reference to Islamic ideology - instead it defined violent extremism as “adopting or promoting an extremist belief system for the purpose of facilitating ideologically based violence to advance political, religious, or social change.”29 Although Harman’s bill never made it to a Senate vote because of the controversy surrounding setting up a national commission to study radicalization, Peter King, a New York Republican, would later set up his own set of hearings in March 2011 specifically focused on the radicalization of Muslim Americans, and investigating their contribution to prevent radicalization in their community. King emphasizes that political correctness is what is holding federal officials back from condemning Al-Qaeda inspired radicalization as Islamic 27 Stone, Andrea. “Counter-terrorism Czar Resists Muslim Labels, As Critics Say Right-Wing Threat Looms Larger.” Huffington Post, November 17, 2011. 28 Napolitano, Janet. “How DHS is Countering Violent Extremism.” Homeland Security Blog, August 8, 2011. 29 Violent Radicalization and Homegrown Terrorism Prevention Act of 2007: Report (to Accompany H.R. 1955) (including Cost Estimate of the Congressional Budget Office). [Washington, D.C.: U.S. G.P.O., 2007]. Islam 23 radicalization, advocating for the government to make the link between Islamic ideology and violent actions taken by Muslims.30 As I have shown above, the major players in government domestic counter-radicalization policy are prominent local law enforcement agencies like the LAPD, FBI and NYPD and federal government entities like the White House, the Department of Homeland Security, and Congress. However, these policy actors do not seem to have a consistent definition and conceptualization of radicalization. The primary point of disagreement is in characterizing the root ideology in violent extremism – should we describe it simply as Al-Qaeda’s ideology, or can it be traced to Islamic schools of thought and called jihadist, Salafist, Islamist, or Islamic? The number of terms is numerous, but that in no way aids in creating a consistent policy. While the White House and Department of Homeland Security seem to characterize radicalization emanating from the Muslim community solely as violent extremism, the FBI and law enforcement agencies go further and describe the root of the problem to be radical Islamic ideology. Various members of Congress have defined and tried to investigate radicalization in terms of their own political ideologies, and so it is expected that there is no uniformity in Congress’ conceptualization of the issue. But what about the discrepancy in definition between the Obama administration and local law enforcement? Although President Obama has outlined a very high level strategy that discards an Islamic label for radicalization and homegrown terrorism, is this conceptualization of radicalization simply impractical when local governments craft policy towards their Muslim communities? Or is law enforcement simply worsening the problem by alienating the Muslim community using definitions and terms that mischaracterize their religion? 30 Compilation of Hearings On Islamist Radicalization: Hearings Before the Committee On Homeland Security, House of Representatives, One Hundred Twelfth Congress, First Session, March 10, June 15, and July 27, 2011. Washington: U.S. G.P.O, 2012. Islam 24 Debate Outside of Government 1) Scholars Scholars have also been trying to define the concept of radicalization. Clark McCauley and Sophia Moskalenko state that it is too simple to conclude that violent extremism from the Muslim community is a product of Islamic extremism that is associated with Wahhabism and Salafism. Moreover, most Wahhabists and Salafists do not support terrorism. For example, Saudia Arabia is the bastion of Wahhabism and the government has an extensive counterradicalization program to combat extremism. Salafi Muslims adhere to a strict interpretation to the Qur’an – Islam as it was practiced centuries ago, and most aim to rid themselves of the material connections of the world.31 McCauley and Moskalenko also emphasize that ideas are not the same as action. Although millions of Muslims abroad are shown to sympathize with Islamic extremist goals in polls, the number of Muslim terrorists is nowhere near that order of magnitude. Scholars on the other end of the spectrum have advocated for the federal government to take a stronger position on ideology, especially in regards to the different schools of Islamic thought. If the government perceives one school of Islamic thought to be more in tune with American ideals, should it intervene in ideological and theological matters by supporting the most “American” Islamic ideology against ideologies that are perceived to be dangerous and contributing to radicalization? Lorenzo Vidino argues that the U.S. government should be prepared to engage itself in this ideological debate in order to “find ways to counter the theological message of violent extremism,” but to tread carefully because of potential 31 McCauley, Clark R, and Sophia Moskalenko. Friction : How Radicalization Happens to Them and Us. Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2011. Islam 25 backfires.32 Peter Neumann also espouses this viewpoint; he notes that “it might be appropriate to challenge the group and its ideology directly and aggressively.”33 If Salafism is the ideology primarily responsible for radicalization, then by their reasoning the government should define radicalization to have roots in that ideology in order to discredit that ideology. However, there may be serious potential for conflicts if the government is perceived to be supporting one interpretation of religion over another, which raises legal issues of constitutionality. 2) Muslim Community Response One common point made in the strategies of all the major players has been the need to the engage the Muslim community in order to create a successful counter-radicalization program. What kind of response has the debate over the conceptualization of radicalization elicited from Muslim Americans? After the publication of the NYPD’s radicalization report, the Muslim American Civil Liberties Coalition (MACLC) released a counter report addressing the civil liberties implications in the NYPD document. The organization criticized the report for presenting “a distorted and misleading depiction of Islam and its adherents” and urged the NYPD to use the term “violent extremist” in its analysis on terrorism instead of Islamic religious terminology like “jihadist” and mujahedeen,” in order to decouple religion from terrorism.34 After the publication of the FBI’s 2006 report on the radicalization process, numerous organizations, including the Muslim Public Affairs Council and the Center for Constitutional Rights co-signed a letter with the American Civil Liberties Union addressed to FBI director Robert Mueller, urging him to review the document for its anti-Muslim bias and factual 32 Vidino, Lorenzo. “Countering Radicalization in America: Lessons from Europe.” United States Institute of Peace Special Report 262, 2010, p. 11. 33 Neumann, Peter. Preventing Violent Radicalization in America. Bipartisan Policy Center, 2011, p. 8. 34 Ali, Faiza N., and Sara Sayeed. “CountERRORism Policy: MACLC’s Critique of the NYPD’s Report on Homegrown Radicalization.” Muslim American Civil Liberties Coalition. 2008, p. 7. Islam 26 inaccuracies.35 The co-signers also note that “the FBI report is wholly inconsistent with the 2011 White House strategy to prevent extremist violence.”36 It is clear that the Muslim community and its allies are extremely wary of Islamic terminology in the radicalization dialogue, and clearly support the Obama administration’s “violent extremism” terminology as a more appropriate label to discuss the process of radicalization and homegrown terrorism. 3) Civil Rights Groups As noted above, civil rights groups have partnered with Muslim communities to demand the government to restructure its definitions of radicalization without including any, in their perspective, Muslim bias. For example, the ACLU has criticized the FBI for controversial material used to train agents that describes Islam as a cult and inherently violent political ideology that forms the basis for terrorism.37 Civil rights organizations have not only criticized the mischaracterization of Islam in the government’s definitions, but also the extreme focus put on American Muslims when other types of domestic terrorism are just as prevalent. For example, the Southern Poverty Law Center has criticized Peter’s King’s radicalization hearings as mischaracterizing the threat in terms of only Muslims when extremist groups on the right have allegedly been increasing and posing just as great of a threat.38 Conclusion The focus of this chapter has been to characterize the government’s conceptualization of radicalization. I have identified the major government players in domestic counter-radicalization policy, including the White House, Congress, DHS, and local law enforcement agencies. As I 35 Letter to FBI Director Robert Mueller Regarding Radicalization. American Civil Liberties Union. October 4, 2011, p. 1. 36 Ibid., p. 3. 37 “ACLU Eye on the FBI: The FBI’s Use of Anti-Arab and Anti-Muslim Counterterrorism Training Materials.” American Civil Liberties Union, October 2011. 38 Potok, Mark. “Why Are Peter King’s Hearings So Loathsome? Let Us Count the Ways.” Southern Poverty Law Center Hatewatch, March 8, 2011. Islam 27 have shown, the government lacks a clear and consistent definition of radicalization. The primary discrepancy is in describing radicalization as having roots in Islamic ideology. Local law enforcement agencies generally perceive a strong link between extreme Islamic views and violence while agencies of the Obama federal government see weak links. For example, as noted by the letter sent to Robert Mueller by the ACLU, the FBI’s conceptualization of radicalization seems to be in conflict with Obama’s strategy because it defines Islamic ideology to be the source of the problem and it uses physical attributes of strong religious belief as indicators for radicalization. I have also shown that there has been a shift in terminology from the Bush administration to the Obama administration. While the Bush administration was more comfortable with characterizing radicalization as Islamic, the Obama administration has shied away from doing in an effort to make the Muslim community feel less alienated. The reader will now have an understanding of the internal dynamics within the government in conceptualizing radicalization, and be more aptly able to consider a pivotal question that will be discussed in the subsequent chapters: how can the US government create an effective counter-radicalization policy Islam 28 Chapter 3: Radicalization on the Agenda In the previous chapter I discussed the inconsistencies between the federal government and local law enforcement in defining radicalization. In Chapter 4 I will analyze how this discrepancy in definition is manifested in policy differences between the federal and local levels. In this chapter I will investigate not the source of radicalization itself, but the source of its ascension to the national public policy agenda. To accomplish this investigation, I will look at the narrative of events surrounding radicalization. Radicalization, particularly Islamic radicalization, was not always on the public policy agenda. The current literature has included the debate surrounding counter-radicalization and the policies to enforce it, but there is a gap in the literature in how exactly radicalization came to the public policy agenda in the first place. I will argue that the 2005 London bombing was the turning point in U.S. domestic terrorism history that brought radicalization onto the agenda and elevated the perceived threat of homegrown extremism from the American Muslim community. Moreover, although radicalization can at worst be considered a limited problem, the sensitivity the public has developed towards Islamist terrorism after September 11 and the potentially catastrophic effects of a successful terrorist attack make it unlikely that radicalization will descend from the public policy agenda. Theory of Agenda-Setting In order to understand how radicalization came onto the agenda, we need to understand how issues generally are placed on the U.S. policy agenda. Kingdon’s model of agenda setting will provide the theoretical basis for understanding the agenda setting process. Kingdon defines the agenda as the list of subjects or issues that government officials and people outside of government working with those officials are paying serious attention to at any given time. Three Islam 29 sets of variables – problems, policies, and politics – interact to determine what gets on the agenda.1 Kingdon defines the problem stream as “the perceptions of problems as public issues requiring government action.”2 The policy stream consists of analysts examining problems and proposing solutions, and the political stream encompasses everything from the public mood to interest group campaigns. Agenda-setting opportunities, called policy windows, open and close based on the interaction of these three streams. These windows can result from focusing events such as crises, accidents, or scandals. Policy entrepreneurs, as Kingdon calls them, take advantage of open policy windows to advocate for issues they would like to see placed on the policy agenda. Deborah Stone builds on Kingdon’s model by highlighting the importance of the framing of issues. Stone stratifies her theory into three strands, similar to Kingdon. The first strand focuses on the characteristics of the actors making policy, including politicians, interest groups, and bureaucrats. In analyzing the policymakers’ characteristics, Stone looks at personal attributes such as attitude as well as their available resources to understand how they can bring issues to the agenda. The second strand focuses on the nature of the problems themselves, whether they are grave or moderate, have economic or health consequences, or are temporary or long-term. This strand, by characterizing the problem and its consequences, determines whether the problem will reach a broader audience. The third strand focuses on the framing of the issue – the use of symbols, narratives, metaphors, and language to ascend the issue onto the public policy agenda or keep it off.3 1 Kingdon, John W. Agendas, Alternatives, and Public Policies. Boston: Little, Brown, 1984, p. 20. Ibid. 3 Stone, Deborah A. “Causal Stories and the Formation of Policy Agendas.” Political Science Quarterly 104(2): 281-300, 1989, p. 281-282. 2 Islam 30 Thomas Birkland further developed the idea of sudden and unpredictable events, called focusing events, influencing the agenda setting process. Birkland argues that regardless of the specifics of the event, a large event, such as an oil spill, a plane crash, or earthquake induces similar patterns of individual and group responses. The news media frames the event and dramatic footage is aired of people or property effected. In the aftermath of the event, the news media focuses its attention on the individuals, including government officials, academic experts, and industry leaders, who can explain the cause of the event. Gathering its information from the news media, the public’s attention subsequently turns to how the aftermath of the event will be handled, whether by aiding the victims of a natural disaster or punishing those culpable for a manmade tragedy, possibly through government legislation.4 Birkland provides examples of past focusing events that had major effects on the public policy process, such as the Exxon Valdez spill in 1989. A year after the spill the Oil Pollution Act of 1990 was passed in reaction. The oil spill helped to dramatize the problem of oil pollution and bring it to the top of the agenda. Without it, Birkland contends the fourteen-year-long gridlock over comprehensive oil spill legislation would have likely continued until some other event incentivized Congress to take rapid action on the problem.5 Although all focusing events do not necessarily spur immediate policy action, they can grab the policymakers’ attention with the right mix of political entrepreneurs. The starting point of chronological events that brought radicalization and homegrown terrorism to the agenda will be the September 11, 2001 attacks. Although there were incidents of terrorism related to Islamist extremism in the United States before this time, 9/11 marks a major 4 Birkland, Thomas A. After Disaster: Agenda Setting, Public Policy, and Focusing Events. Washington, D.C.: Georgetown University Press, 1997, p. 2. 5 Ibid., p. 3. Islam 31 turning point where terrorism soared to the top of the public policy agenda. Thus the policy, problem and political streams that existed from 9/11 to the current time will be investigated to determine when and how radicalization came to be an integral part of the national counterterrorism agenda, a phenomenon that has not been thoroughly investigated in the existing literature. I will highlight significant events that occurred in the history of domestic terrorism since 9/11 that have had major impact in the ascension of radicalization on the agenda and explain why others have not. In the events where plots are considered, I chose to consider the plots that consisted of a significant group of people and elicited the most government and media reaction, which is likely to have the greatest impact in bringing radicalization to the agenda. 2001 Lackawanna Six6 Six months before the 9/11 attacks had elevated Islam to the public discussion and Islamic extremism to the public policy agenda, six Yemeni-American childhood friends traveled to Afghanistan to attend an al-Qaeda training camp. The media dubbed the group the “Lackawanna Six” after the town just south of Buffalo they called home. The men’s trip to Afghanistan was first brought to the attention to law enforcement by an anonymous handwritten letter sent to the FBI building in Buffalo. The sole FBI agent specializing in foreign counterterrorism brought up the issue to the chain of command, but at that time, months before 9/11, it seemed implausible that Osama bin Laden would be targeting Americans for recruitment. After 9/11, the “driving goal of the government was to find the next sleeper cell before it struck.”7 The case was so important to law enforcement and the CIA that President Bush was receiving regular updates about the men, then under surveillance by the FBI. The men were 6 Although the Lackawanna Six plot developed before the September 11 attacks, this case is still considered in the timeline of events because it represents an early case in which American citizens were involved in a terrorist plot. Moreover, the arrest, trials, and discussion surrounding the group began in 2002. 7 Bergman, Lowell and Matthew Purdy. “Unclear Danger: Inside the Lackawanna Terror Case.” New York Times. Oct 12 2003. Islam 32 never found to be planning an attack, but the FBI had enough evidence to arrest them for providing material support to Al-Qaeda by training at a terrorist camp. They were indicted and received up to 10 years of prison each. The Lackawanna Six case was an important one in the history of domestic terrorism in the United States. President Bush even lauded the capture of the Al-Qaeda sleeper cell in his State of the Union address. But while the Lackawanna Six did raise the issue of Al-Qaeda recruitment to prominence, policymakers and law enforcement were not talking about radicalization or homegrown terrorism – they instead described the phenomenon as sleeper cells. These men, although all American citizens and some even American-born, were not considered to be “radicalized” individuals but instead an Al-Qaeda cell that wanted to commit another attack on American soil. Radicalization did not come under the radar of the federal government, even though they received briefings about the case. The Bush administration’s 2003 strategy on combating terrorism has no mention of radicalization or homegrown terrorism. While it does emphasize the need to identify and locate terrorist organizations operating abroad and at home,8 there is no indication that the National Security Council at that point in time had in mind the threat of U.S. citizens or residents undergoing a process of radicalization and committing violent attacks. Although in later reports, after radicalization become a commonly used term, the Lackawanna Six case was used as an example of radicalization, the literature at that time does not show any indication of the government being concerned about American citizens or residents undergoing a process of radicalization and committing terrorist attacks. Dina Temple-Raston notes in her investigative analysis of the Lackawanna Six plot that the six men were known as 8 National Strategy for Combating Terrorism. [Washington, D.C.: Executive Office of the President], 2003, p. 16. Islam 33 “America’s first homegrown al-Qaeda cell,”9 indicating that at the time the notion of Al-Qaeda sleeper cells trumped any fear of Islamist radicalization. 2002 Portland Seven Less than three weeks after the September 11 attacks, three men, a Jordanian-born legal resident and two American citizens, were reported to the FBI by a Skamania County deputy sheriff after he found them engaged in shooting practice in a gravel pit near Washougal, Washington. A year later the three men and two others were indicted on multiple charges of aiding and attempting to join Al-Qaeda. Another pair, Maher Hawash and October Lewis, was later charged in lesser crimes relating to aiding the original group of five men. A majority of the men were either U.S. born or naturalized American citizens. However, the Americans were not considered to have undergone a process of radicalization. John Ashcroft, then U.S. Attorney General described the Portlanders as terrorist cell members.10 Radicalization was not a concept the government considered in the context of Islamist groups. Moreover, tension and suspicion had developed regarding Muslim communities after 9/11, but the focus at that time was not on radicalization, but sleeper cells already in the United States. In his 2002 State of the Union address, President Bush warned of individuals who are like “ticking time bombs” and could go off without warning.11 At the time, the perspective was shaped by Al-Qaeda cells already in the United States waiting for an opportune time to attack. 9 Temple-Raston, Dina. The Lackawanna Six and Rough Justice in the Age of Terror: The Jihad Next Door. PublicAffairs, New York (2007). 10 Budnick, Nick. “The Making of a ‘Terrorist.’” Willamette Week, October 16, 2002. 11 Bush, George W. State of the Union Message: Message From the President of the United States Transmitting a Report On the State of the Union. Washington: U.S. G.P.O., 2002. Islam 34 2004 Madrid Bombings Three days before the 2004 general elections in Spain, multiple coordinated explosions simultaneously went off in its commuter train system, killing 191 people and wounding more than 1800.12 Although at first ETA, the Basque separatist group, was believed to be responsible, the true culprits turned out to be a group of mostly Moroccan men, using explosives stuffed into sports bags. The government and the news media at the time continued to use the term Al-Qaeda sleeper cell to describe the individuals culpable. The Wall Street Journal describes the men as a new breed of Islamic holy warrior, called Takfiris. The Takfiri movement was supposedly strongest in Morocco and Algeria, and its members recruit women for acts of terrorism and adopt a Western profile, exempting them from traditional Islamic practices in order to keep a low profile and avoid detection.13 The New York Times reported that American officials noted “the attack might fit a new model in which local Islamic extremist groups, perhaps only loosely affiliated with Al Qaeda, might carry out attacks without the direct coordination of Qaeda leaders.”14 The American media was concerned about Al-Qaeda and its affiliates entering countries or established cells rising up to commit terrorist attacks, but again there is no indication of discussions of radicalization. Instead the attacks are framed similarly to the modus operandi of the 9/11 attackers, characterized as a foreign, or in this case Moroccan, terrorist threat. The Madrid bombings represented less of an indication of an emerging homegrown terrorism threat than a further warning signal to government officials about Al-Qaeda sleeper cells existing in their country. The threat, rather than originating internally, was perceived to 12 "Terror in Madrid: Train Bombs Kill at Least 190 in Spain; Basque Group Or Al Qaeda is Suspected in Attack on a Staunch U.S. Ally; Sowing Fear on Eve of Election." Wall Street Journal: A.1. ABI/INFORM Global, Mar 12, 2004. 13 "New Breed of Islamic Warrior is Emerging; Evidence in Madrid Attack Points to Takfiris, Who use Immigration as a Weapon." Wall Street Journal: A.16. ABI/INFORM Global. Mar 29 2004. 14 Golden, Tim and David Johnston. “Officials Tending to Blame Qaeda for Madrid Attack.” New York Times, March 16, 2004. Islam 35 have foreign roots. After the suspected Moroccans were arrested, officials in Morocco and Spain looked for a link between suspected Al-Qaeda operatives in both countries, with the possibility that terrorists were funneled to Spain to attack Western targets. Jamal Zougam, one of the main suspects in the bombings, had traveled to Morocco just weeks before the attack, indicating a similarity with the Lackawanna case of travel to the country that was the source for the terror. The Madrid bombers, like the Lackawanna Six group, were strongly affiliated with a foreign terrorist organization. The domestic response in the United States to the bombings was hearings to address the critical transportation infrastructure in the US and its susceptibility to terrorist attack. Using Kingdon’s framework, while there may have been policy entrepreneurs (the policymakers themselves in this case) bringing the issue of transit security to the agenda, there was no such equivalent for radicalization or homegrown terrorism because the perception of these issues framed in this manner did not exist at the time. As I have shown, the news media had not portrayed these terrorist acts and plots as cases of Islamic radicalization up until this time – the terminology simply did not exist in the mainstream dialogue and discussions of government officials and news media. Instead the focus was on Al-Qaeda sleeper cells already established in the country. We will see that the London bombings provided the catalyst for change. 2005 London Bombings The London bombings represented the first perceived case of homegrown terrorism and a major turning point in the history of domestic counterterrorism. On the morning of July 7, 2005, there was a coordinated attack of suicide bombs on London’s public transit system during rush hour traffic. Fifty-two people were killed, and over 700 people injured15 in the worst terrorist attacks on London soil. The four suicide bombers were among the dead, but this time the 15 "Britains First Suicide-Bombing?" Economist.com / News Analysis Jul 12 2005: 1-. ABI/INFORM Global; ProQuest Research Library. Islam 36 perpetrators were not members of a sleeper cell – they were all British-born citizens that were not proven to be part of a larger terrorist network. Although two of the four bombers made a trip to Pakistan a year before the attack, they did not participate in any terrorist training camps. The profiles of the men do not indicate they were susceptible to terrorism. Two of them were married with children and only Germaine Lindsay, the convert and Russell Square bomber, openly showed support for Al-Qaeda before the attacks. These men, compared to the terrorist cells law enforcement was investigating, seemed rather unremarkable. Like the Lackawanna Six, the Madrid bombers were young Muslim men with families and jobs. However, these men did not have explicit connections to worldwide terror networks. Moreover, unlike the Lackawanna Six, these men were extremely successful in their plot. Using Kingdon and Stone’s framework of agenda setting, we can see that the importance of framing here is particularly relevant in comparing the London bombings to the Madrid bombings. The news media and politicians framed the Madrid bombings as a foreign threat while the London bombings were perceived as a “homegrown” phenomenon. Indeed, afterwards Londoners tried to make sense of the bombings by looking at factors that might have encouraged the attacks. In the United States, the news media reported that there was shock in London over investigators’ discovery that the bombings were the work of homegrown suicide bombers.16 The media framed it as a “stunning twist,” something unexpected that did not have any strong precedent. Although there were reports grouping the Madrid and London attacks as terrorist attacks by “homegrown jihadists,”17 the international news media in 2004 was not using such a term – only after were these previous cases considered examples of homegrown terrorism. 16 Analysis: Shock Over the News that Last Weeks Bombings in London were the Work of Homegrown Suicide Bombers. Washington, D.C., United States, Washington, D.C.: National Public Radio, 2005. 17 Hegland, Corine. "Counter-Terrorism at the Crossroads." National Journal Jul 16 2005: 2260-5. Islam 37 Moreover, as I have shown above, there were simply no indications within the United States government in 2004 that the Madrid bombings had created concern over average United States citizens, not tied to terrorist networks, committing terrorist attacks. The London bombings completely changed this perception. The United States and Great Britain were already strong allies at the time, with the British committing troops to both the Afghanistan and Iraq campaigns to capture Osama bin Laden and dispose Saddam Hussein of alleged weapons of mass destruction. After the bombings, the FBI provided British investigators with intelligence aid, sending a list of names of suspects in the bombings. Tony Blair and George Bush had a strong relationship, especially with regards to how to deal with the War on Terror. Thus it is not surprising that Blair’s rhetoric would have a resounding effect on the perception of domestic terrorism in Washington. Shortly after initial discoveries were made, Blair noted that although the men had acted in the name of Islam, the majority of British Muslims, described as decent, peaceful people, did not support their actions. Blair made an effort to the separate the attacks from the religion of Islam, as he perceived the majority of Muslims in the country practiced it. However, he did not shy away from identifying the attacks as Islamic in nature, stating that the threat from homegrown Islamic terrorism would last a generation.18 The head of MI5 domestic intelligence agency, Dame Elizabeth Manningham-Buller, reinforced the prime minister’s message. She stated that individuals were moving from passive support for terrorism to active terrorism through “being radicalized or indoctrinated” by friends, families, the news media, and the internet.19 Although radicalization and homegrown terrorism were clearly on the public policy agenda in Great Britain, was the same true in the United States? The Madrid bombings did not 18 Cowell, Alan. "Blair Says Homegrown Terrorism is Generation-Long Struggle." New York Times (1923-Current file): A6. ProQuest Historical Newspapers: The New York Times (1851-2008). Nov 11 2006. 19 Ibid. Islam 38 spur any legislative or policy action that incorporated radicalization. A close look at how the national security strategies of the United States changed afterwards show the effect of the London bombings. The national security strategy and national strategy for combating terrorism released by the Bush administration in 2006 highlight the threat of Islamic violent extremism, and state that democracies like the United States are not immune to homegrown terrorism, as was shown by the July 7 bombings in London by Muslim British nationals.20 Thus the Bush administration, emulating the Blair administration, become a policy entrepreneur and helped bring Islamic radicalization to the policy agenda. Homegrown Terrorism Prevention Act of 2007 By April 2007, violent extremism was already on the pubic policy agenda in terms of strategy, but Jane Harman, Democratic representative of California’s 36th district, decided there was a need to increase the government’s understanding of radicalization. Harman decided action needed to be taken to better understand the homegrown terrorism phenomenon. She sponsored and introduced a bill on April 19, 2007, aptly named the Violent Radicalization and Homegrown Terrorism Prevention Act of 2007. The stated purpose of the bill was to prevent violent radicalization and ideologically based violence in the United States. According to the bill’s committee report submitted by Representative Bennie Thompson of Mississippi, there were a number of hearings on radicalization held before the bill was introduced that influenced Harman’s decision to pursue the legislation. For example, on April 5, Haman’s Subcommittee on Intelligence, Information Sharing, and Terrorism Risk Assessment held a field hearing in Torrance, California and heard testimony from a variety of scholars and officials in the counterradicalization field. They included William Bratton, chief of police of the LAPD and Brian 20 National Strategy for Combating Terrorism. [Washington, D.C.: Executive Office of the President], 2006, p. 10. Islam 39 Jenkins, senior advisor at the RAND Corporation.21 The Center for Constitutional Rights, a nonprofit legal advocacy organization, notes that the bill’s inspiration were homegrown terrorism incidents such as the Oklahoma City bombing, the 2005 plot to bomb synagogues in Los Angeles, and the foiled car bomb plot at Los Angeles International Airport. Moreover, Harman had a close relationship with the RAND Corporation, and experts from RAND such as Jenkins, who has emphasized the threat of radicalization, seem to have influenced her decision to pursue the legislation.22 The bill itself allocated funds to create a grant program for the study of radicalization and homegrown terrorism prevention, a national commission, and a standard for cooperation with other nations.23 The bill is significant in the timeline of homegrown terrorism because it marks the first time actual legislation was created to try to better understand radicalization. The policy opportunity window was wide open after the 2005 London bombings to increase understanding and reform the government’s domestic counterterrorism policy, creating a problem stream that was very important to members of the House Committee on Homeland Security. The policy stream also came together because Congressional findings had determined there was a need to investigate the process of radicalization, and setting up a commission to analyze this problem could provide a solution. However, the politics stream did not provide as much of a clear path for radicalization to get on the legislative agenda. The bill passed the House with an overwhelming majority, but by the time it had reached the Senate there was already a political fallout with civil rights groups that were concerned with the danger to civil liberties that the bill could lead to. For example, the American Civil Liberties 21 Violent Radicalization and Homegrown Terrorism Prevention Act of 2007: Report (to Accompany H.R. 1955) (including Cost Estimate of the Congressional Budget Office). [Washington, D.C.: U.S. G.P.O.], 2007. “Factsheet: The Violent Radicalization and Homegrown Terrorism Prevention Act of 2007.” Center for Constitutional Rights, 2007. 23 Violent Radicalization and Homegrown Terrorism Prevention Act of 2007. 22 Islam 40 Union (ACLU) contested that the bill would cause law enforcement to focus on thought, and not action.24 This could then lead to unconstitutional restrictions on free speech and belief. The concerns raised by the ACLU were enough that once the bill reached the Senate, it never made it onto the floor for a vote and died in committee. The death of the Homegrown Terrorism Prevention Act of 2007 underscores the fact that although homegrown terrorism and radicalization were on the public policy agenda, there was still tension among the political entrepreneurs who wanted to investigate it further and those who wanted to take it off the agenda. However, although the legislation failed, the Homegrown Terrorism Prevention Act underscores the government’s first attempt to pass legislation investigating homegrown terrorism and radicalization, securing its place on the legislative agenda. 2007-2011 Homegrown Terror Cases In the years after radicalization had come onto the agenda, the perception of the threat compounded in the years between 2007 and 2011 because of the apparent surge in the number of homegrown terror cases, especially in the years 2009 and 2010. While radicalization came onto the agenda with the London bombings in 2005 and Congressional investigations into radicalization started in 2007, the large number of cases in these critical years reinforced its place on the agenda. For example, in this period there were a significant amount of cases of SomaliAmericans returning to their ethnic roots and joining Al-Shabab, a U.S. designated terrorist organization.25 The peak in cases in 2009 served to frame the importance of the problem and only widen the opportunity timeline for radicalization to stay on the agenda. Political entrepreneurs in the government like Representative Peter King and Senator Joe Lieberman used 24 “ACLU Statement on the Violent Radicalization and Homegrown Terrorism Prevention Act of 2007.” American Civil Liberties Union. Nov 28 2007. 25 For the full list of Somali cases, see “Joining the Fight in Somalia.” New York Times, October 30, 2011. Available at http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2009/07/12/us/20090712-somalia-timeline.html. Islam 41 those cases as justification for investigating radicalization and homegrown extremism through congressional hearings to make sure the issue continued to stay on the national agenda. 2011 Peter King Radicalization Hearings The years 2009 and 2010 saw a surge in the number of homegrown terrorism cases. There was the case of Major Nidal Hasan, a U.S. army psychiatrist who became radicalized through interactions with the now deceased radical imam Anwar Al-Awlaki. He shot and killed 12 U.S. soldiers and 1 civilian employee, and wounded 32 others in a shooting at Fort Hood, Texas,26 the worst shooting ever to take place on a US military base. A little more than a month later, Umar Farouk Abdulmutallab, better known by his media-designated pseudonym as the Underwear Bomber, tried to detonate explosives hidden in his underwear while on board a plane to Detroit from Amsterdam.27 In these two years alone, almost half of all documented cases of homegrown terrorism occurred. The large number of cases in those years brought radicalization back to the top of the public discourse, and Peter King, representative of New York, capitalized on these circumstances by holding a hearing on March 10, 2011 to investigate Muslim Americans’ contributions in curtailing radicalization in their community. The hearing was emotionally charged, with divisions among party lines in drilling witnesses that ultimately resulted in painting a divergent picture of the Muslim community, with one side claiming that Muslims were ignoring radicalization while the other contending that Muslims were actively cooperating with law enforcement.28 King mostly invited speakers that agreed with his perception that the Muslim 26 Campoy, Ana. "U.S. News: Survivors Describe Horror of Shooting at Fort Hood." Wall Street Journal: A.5. ABI/INFORM Global.Oct 14 2010. 27 Devlin, Barrett. "U.S. Details Underwear Bombers Ties to Yemeni Al Qaeda Leaders." Wall Street Journal (Online): ABI/INFORM Global. Feb 11 2012. 28 Scott, Shane. “Domestic Terrorism Hearing Opens with Contrasting Views on Dangers.” The New York Times. Mar 10 2011. Islam 42 community needed to do more to prevent radicalization and certain groups like CAIR hindered this process. For example, Zuhdi Jasser, President of the American Islamic Forum for Democracy, stressed the dangers of political Islam while Marvin Bledsoe told the story of his own son’s radicalization that resulted in an attack on a US military recruiting office in Little Rock, Arkansas.29 Members of Congress not only listened to testimonies, but also actively participated. Keith Ellison, the first Muslim American elected to Congress, gave a tearful testimony about contributions Muslim Americans have made to preserving American’s national security and Representative Sheila Jackson of Texas rebutted King’s allegations of political correctness surrounding the hearings with angry charges of McCarthyism.30 The King hearing provide further evidence that since radicalization has come onto the public policy agenda in the United States, contentious politics has followed it. Although the usefulness of the March 10 hearing31 is a matter of debate, it no doubt has kept radicalization at the forefront of the agenda and was important in refocusing the public’s attention on the topic. As I have shown through this series of events, the 2005 London bombings represented a major turning point in the history of U.S. domestic counterterrorism – the bombings made “homegrown terrorism” and “radicalization” common language among government officials and the press. In addition to these two groups, the emergence of radicalization on the agenda has also engendered a debate between scholars. Radicalization is on the agenda, but should it be? The literature presents two schools of thought. In one, opponents argue that the government is exaggerating the terrorist threat and capitalizing on the public’s heightened fear of terrorism after 29 Hearing on the Extent of Radicalization in the American Muslim Community and that Community’s Response. Committee On Homeland Security, House of Representatives, One Hundred Twelfth Congress, First Session, March 10, 2011. Washington: U.S. G.P.O, 2012. 30 Stanley, Alessandra. “Terror Hearing Puts Lawmakers in Harsh Light.” New York Times, March 10, 2011. 31 There were subsequent hearings held on radicalization by King’s Committee on Homeland Security on June 10 and July 27 (See Appendix B), but they did not create as much controversy because they did not specifically look at the American Muslim community’s contribution to preventing radicalization. Islam 43 the 9/11 attacks. In the other, although scholars are not as vocal as arguing that radicalization should be on the agenda, they do emphasize that it is a serious problem that the government has to deal with. Scholarly Debate Ian Lustick contends that while the government has “registered some convictions on charges of fundraising for foreign groups appearing on its list of terrorist organizations,” there have been numerous false arrests, failed prosecutions, and de-escalated indictments.32 Lustick notes one particular example of counterterrorism hyperbole by the federal government in the departing speech given by Attorney General John Ashcroft in 2005. He claimed that more than 375 people had been charged on terrorism related crimes, with 195 convicted or entering guilty pleas.33 However, Lustick notes that the Washington Post soon afterwards published a detailed analysis in which the government’s successes were shown to be overstated – of the 195 convictions, only 39 were actually for terrorism or national security related crimes. Moreover, the median sentence for those given guilty convictions was just eleven months.34 Lustick lists several cases of homegrown terrorism brought about by the government that resulted in no indictments related to terrorism or national security or in some cases, no trials. In one, the FBI feared two sixteen-year-old girls who were long-term illegal residents of the United States to be suicide bombers. After six weeks of detention they were quietly released with no trial or charge. Lustick argues that although there is a terrorist threat to the United States, there is a “strong 32 Lustick, Ian. Trapped In the War On Terror. Philadelphia, Pa.: University of Pennsylvania Press, 2006, p. 44. Ibid., p. 37. 34 Eggen, Dan and Julie Tate. “U.S. Campaign Produces Few Convictions on Terrorism Charges.” Washington Post, June 12, 2005. 33 Islam 44 desire of government officials to justify the scale of the War on Terror with discoveries of homegrown threats.”35 David Cole notes that the government has a weak track record at locating domestic violent Islamist extremists. Since 9/11, even though 80,000 Arab and Muslim immigrants have been subjected to fingerprinting and registration, 8,000 Arabs and Muslims have been interviewed by the FBI, and over 5,000 foreign nationals have been imprisoned in preventive detention facilities, not a single individual from that group stands convicted of a terrorist crime today, making the government’s record 0 for 93,000.36 Although the Lustick and Cole highlight the dearth of terrorist convictions since 9/11, it is important to note that their analyses were published in 2006, before the perceived surge in the number of cases of homegrown terrorism in 2009 and 2010. Thus their analyses are limited by their time frame. However, their conclusions are still relevant because more recent scholarly work has reached similar conclusions. For example, Risa Brooks states that “the threat posed by Muslim homegrown terrorism is not particularly serious, and it does not appear to be growing, especially in its most lethal incarnation – deadly attacks within the United States.”37 Brooks argues that although there was a surge of arrests related to homegrown extremism in 2009, they do not necessarily indicate there has been an increase in radicalization. Brooks provides possible alternative explanations such as more terrorist offenses coming to official attention because of aggressive policing, or factors that contributed to the timing of the arrests to result in a large cluster of arrests – making them an artifact of data rather than of statistical significance.38 35 Lustick, p. 42. David Cole, “Are We Safer,” New York Review of Books. Volume 53, No. 4 (March 9, 2006), p. 3. 37 Brooks, Risa A. “Muslim ‘Homegrown’ Terrorism in the United States: How Serious Is the Threat?” International Security, Vol. 36, No. 2 (Fall 2011), p. 42. 38 Ibid., p. 14. 36 Islam 45 Moreover, Brooks investigates the thesis that Muslim Americans could be more inclined to participate in terrorist activity in the United States and concludes that existing scholarship on radicalization and empirical studies “provide only limited guidance to efforts to assess the prospects for Muslim American terrorism in the United States.”39 Thus current empirical studies do not allow us to assess whether Muslim American extremism actually exists at a significant rate, nor do the surge of arrests provide any conclusive evidence of growing radicalization. Consequently, Brooks argues that Muslim American radicalization is not serious enough to need to be on the public agenda. Charles Kurzman argues that Islamist radicalization and homegrown terrorism does not need to be on the agenda because Islamists have found it very difficult to recruit American Muslims to join their ranks. Although Al-Qaeda’s leadership has encouraged American Muslims to attack the United States from within, the numbers show that the American Muslim community has not responded cooperatively. Kurzman notes that although the government has stressed the threat of militant Islamists originating in the United States, these claims are exaggerations. From 2001 to 2006 approximately a dozen people were convicted in the U.S. of having links to AlQaeda and fewer than 40 American Muslims committed acts of domestic terrorism.40 Kurzman puts the threat of Islamic extremism into perspective by comparing it with murders in the United States. Since 9/11, there have been more than 140,000 murders, resulting in more than 15,000 per year.41 Deaths from Islamist extremists numbered less than three dozen, less than three-hundredths of a percent of the total. Kurzman attributes the disproportionate attention given to terrorism by the public because of its dominance in media headlines. The large 39 Ibid., p. 12. Kurzman, Charles. The Missing Martyrs : Why There Are So Few Muslim Terrorists. Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2011, p. 13. 41 Ibid., p. 14. 40 Islam 46 amount of media coverage of terrorism has given consumers a skewed perspective of the prevalence of terrorism and a level of fear that is disproportionate to the number of deaths that result from terrorism. While Kurzman’s comparative numerical analysis may be accurate, it is limited by the fact that it cannot account for the emotional connection to Islamist attacks that most Americans have retained since 9/11, which may partly explain the public and government officials’ preoccupation with terrorism. John Mueller warns us about the need to be cautious in evaluating the homegrown terrorist threat. Like some of his fellow opponents to radicalization on the public agenda, Mueller emphasizes the large amount of money spent on domestic homeland security. Since 9/11, the cumulative increase in domestic homeland security spending has exceeded $1 trillion. Mueller alleges that government officials have not applied proper risk assessment and cost-benefit approaches that have been standard for decades. Moreover, they have engaged in different types of probability neglect that may inflate the threat of terrorism.42 On the other side of the spectrum, Peter Neumann argues that the threat from al Qaedainspired domestic terrorism is serious. Neumann cites as evidence the surge in radicalization cases in 2009 and 2010.43 He also bases his analysis of the radicalization threat on a previous report by the Bipartisan Policy Center’s National Security Preparedness Group, in which Peter Bergen and Bruce Hoffman contend that the radicalization threat is “not only diversifying, but arguably intensifying.”44 Nevertheless, Neumann acknowledges that “experts are right to caution that the numbers are small and that, overall, the threat from al-Qaeda-inspired homegrown 42 Mueller, John E. Terror, Security, and Money : Balancing the Risks, Benefits, and Costs of Homeland Security. Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2011, p. 2. 43 Neumann, p. 7. 44 Bergen, Peter, and Bruce Hoffman. “Assessing the Terrorist Threat.” Bipartisan Policy Center. Sept. 2010, p. 29. Islam 47 terrorism remains modest.”45 In the mindset of adequate preparedness he stresses however that the threat is serious and important enough to evaluate how ready the government is to confront the challenge., and so it should be n the agenda. Brian Michael Jenkins asserts that while America is not immune to radicalization and homegrown terrorism, the number of individuals actually engaging in violence is extremely minute. Jenkins rejects the idea of sleeper cells still existing in the United States, arguing that the majority of cases of homegrown terrorism are of individuals whose radicalization was a personal decision. However, Jenkins states that there are still questions that need to be answered in order to better understand radicalization, such as the role of conversions and the role of the Internet. Thus radicalization still needs to be on the agenda of policymakers in order to better understand the full scope of the threat, even if it remains relatively small. Mark Hamm notes the prevalence of radicalization in U.S. prisons. Hamm describes radicalization as a problem unlike any other in history faced by prison administrators. He conducted a two-year study of trends in prisoner radicalization, composed of an extensive literature review, 140 hours of interviews with fifteen prison chaplains, nine gang intelligence officers and 30 inmates imprisoned for violent crimes in California and Florida.46 Hamm concluded that an individual prisoner moving from radicalization to terrorism recruitment was a highly unlikely event. Only a small percentage of converts to Islam and those in white supremacy groups actually radicalize to the point where they engage in terrorist action. However, Hamm argues that it is not the absolute number of prisoners following extremist interpretations 45 Neumann, p. 12. Hamm, Mark. “Prisoner Radicalization: Assessing the Threat in U.S. Correctional Institutions.” National Institute of Justice Journal 261 (Oct. 2008). Available: http://nij.gov/nij/journals/261/prisoner-radicalization.htm#note11. 46 Islam 48 of religious doctrine that poses the greatest risk; it is instead “the potential for small groups of radicals to form support networks for terrorist goals upon release.”47 Conclusion The theories of agenda setting provide us a way to understand the process of how radicalization came onto the agenda. After 9/11, we have seen cases of terrorism, which would later be defined to be homegrown terrorism, that at the time were not framed in such a way by the press or politicians. The Portland Seven case, the Lackawanna Six case and the 2004 Madrid bombings did not bring radicalization and homegrown terrorism to the agenda. The critical turning point was the 2005 London bombings. The shock over “homegrown” jihadists in Great Britain had reached across the Atlantic and shifted the national security strategy of the US in order to account for this possible threat from within. Since 2005, there has been a contentious battle between political entrepreneurs to deal with radicalization in the American Muslim community. The London bombings brought radicalization onto the national agenda, and the 2007 Homegrown Terrorism Prevention Act was the first instance of the issue entering the national legislative agenda. The apparent surge in plots in the years 2009 and 2010, especially the large number of Somali Americans going abroad to fight with Al-Shabab, prompted controversial public hearings by Peter King and the national counter-radicalization strategy released by the Obama administration in 2011. Radicalization is on the agenda and is unlikely to leave anytime soon. The presence of cases of domestic Islamist terrorism, the news media’s coverage of these events, and the sensitivities surrounding terrorist attacks on the homeland after 9/11 make it likely this debate will not go away anytime soon. 47 Ibid. Islam 49 Chapter 4: Counter-radicalization Policy In the previous chapters I have discussed the inconsistencies within the government with regard to the concept of radicalization. I have shown that there is a discrepancy between local law enforcement and the federal government in its understanding of radicalization. The federal government is not willing to associate violence with extreme Islamic views while law enforcement has framed its strategy with this view. If the government does not have a uniform definition of radicalization, can it form a coherent policy to prevent it? In this chapter I argue that the government does not have a unified national approach to counter-radicalization. While counter-radicalization strategies are being employed at the federal and local levels, there is a strong disconnect in the policy area of domestic intelligence collection that makes any whole-ofgovernment approach to countering radicalization difficult. Moreover, on the domestic intelligence front, law enforcement has not clearly separated counter-radicalization activities with those for counterterrorism. In characterizing the government’s policy, I will continue to distinguish local law enforcement and federal government agencies as I have in Chapter 2 when discussing how these entities had different definitions of radicalization. In this chapter I will investigate how those differences in definition have manifest themselves in differences in policy. For the federal government, I analyze the White House, the Department of Homeland Security, and the National Counterterrorism Center. The law enforcement category encompasses the FBI, the NYPD, and the LAPD. I will categorize the government’s counter-radicalization policies into three areas: messaging, community engagement, and domestic intelligence. I define messaging to be the expressions the government has made in entering the debate regarding radicalization. Community engagement primarily consists of the activities the government has taken to build Islam 50 ties with local Muslim communities. I consider domestic intelligence both in terms of surveillance activities and the use of informants and undercover agents. Messaging The White House has made messaging a key part of its counter-radicalization policy. The administration aims to target Al-Qaeda’s propaganda and counter their violent extremist narrative through promoting the unifying and inclusive nature of American ideals.1 Noting AlQaeda has promoted the idea that the US is at war with Islam, the administration has made an effort to dispel this misconception. President Obama has stated on numerous occasions that the US is not now, nor will ever be, at war with Islam. Moreover, the administration has conveyed the notion that the federal government does not view Islam as inherently violent. John Brennan, Obama’s senior national counterterrorism advisor stated that jihad does not consist of the killing of innocent men, women, and children, but instead refers to an internal holy struggle that is an important tenet of Islam.2 Principal Deputy Coordinator for Counterterrorism Robert Godec reinforced this perspective by making it clear that the federal government’s official position is to “not describe our enemy as jihadists or Islamists because jihad is holy struggle.”3 The federal government has taken it upon itself to support the mainstream view of jihad, which precludes the killings of innocent people, as an effort to prevent individuals from radicalizing. In response to Peter King’s criticism about the government’s refusal to identify Islamic ideology as the root of 1 Empowering Local Partners to Prevent Violent Extremism In the United States. [Washington, D.C.: Executive Office of the President, 2011, p. 6. 2 Brennan, John. Securing the Homeland by Renewing America’s Strengths, Resilience, and Values. Center for Strategic and International Studies. 26 May 2010. 3 Godec, Robert F. Remarks at the Global Young Leaders Conference, June 30, 2010. Available at http://www.state.gov/s/ct/rls/rm/2010/143809.htm. Islam 51 radicalization, Paul Stockton remarks that not doing so is a part of the federal government’s strategy in order to avoid legitimizing Al-Qaeda’s message.4 The federal government has also used communication as a way to promote grassroots activism in order to the counter violent extremism. The National Counterterrorism Center (NCTC) developed a Community Awareness Briefing (CAB) in 2010 in order to communicate to the public efforts by Al-Qaeda to recruit Americans for its cause.5 The NCTC uses the briefing to highlight recruiting videos and other forms of online propaganda in order to help community activists understand the nature of the threat so they can contribute to countering Al-Qaeda’s narrative. The Department of Homeland Security has also planned to create grant programs to provide funding for programs that will seek to “counter violent extremist narratives and ideologies.6 Local law enforcement agencies have not engaged in this kind of messaging. As I have argued in Chapter 2, local law enforcement has identified jihadi ideology as the root cause of violent extremism; therefore efforts to try to separate Islam and violent extremism are not relevant to the interests of law enforcement, so they generally do not engage in this ideological debate. Community Engagement Radicalization will likely occur among individuals who are a part of local communities. Consequently, both the federal and local governments have engaged in counter-radicalization policies that put community engagement at the forefront. The federal government and local law 4 Stockton, Paul. Hearing Before the Committee On Homeland Security, House of Representatives, One Hundred Twelfth Congress, First Session, December 7, 2011. Washington: U.S. G.P.O, 2012. 5 Strategic Implementation Plan for Empowering Local Partners to Prevent Violent Extremism in the United States. [Washington, D.C.: Executive Office of the President, 2011], p. 19. 6 Ibid. Islam 52 enforcement have both emphasized the need to improve their respective engagement programs with Muslims communities in order to increase the level of trust between their members and law enforcement. I will show that in the area of community engagement, there is little discrepancy between the federal government and local law enforcement – all relevant parties have created policy initiatives to engage the Muslim community. Studies have shown that Muslim intracommunity policing has produced substantial results – American Muslims are able (to a certain degree) prevent radicalization of their youth.7 The Obama administration has stated “countering radicalization to violence is frequently best achieved by engaging and empowering individuals and groups at the local level to build resilience against violent extremism.”8 I. Federal Government The Obama administration seeks to carefully structure its CVE strategy to avoid securitizing engagement activities with communities. The U.S. Attorneys, who have experience with engaging in communities in their districts, have led efforts to hold events to discuss issues such as civil rights and counterterrorism security measures, promote awareness about the threat of violent extremism, and facilitate partnerships within communities to prevent violent extremism. Thirty-two U.S. Attorneys’ Offices have participated in this pilot program.9 For example, in Minnesota the U.S. Attorneys Office created the Young Somali-American Advisory Council, made up of Somali-Americans aged 18 to 30, to educate them about their civil rights and the DOJ’s investigative processes. The Minnesota office is also working with the council to 7 See Kurzman, Charles. “Muslim-American Terrorism Since 9/11: An Accounting.” Triangle Center on Terrorism and Homeland Security. Feb 2, 2011. 8 Empowering Local Partners to Prevent Violent Extremism In the United States. [Washington, D.C.: Executive Office of the President, 2011], p. 2. 9 Strategic Implementation Plan, p. 9. Islam 53 create videos explaining the community’s constitutional rights that can be shown on Somali television to reach out to elders in the community.10 Federal inter-agency efforts at community engagement have also been expanding in an effort to better share information, regarded as a pivotal aspect for success for counterradicalization and counterterrorism policy. The Department of Homeland Security and the Department of Justice united to establish a National Task Force in November 2010 to coordinate all relevant community engagement efforts, compile best practices, and report back to field agencies, including the U.S. Attorneys.11 The DHS Office for Civil Rights and Civil Liberties (CRCL) set up roundtables in fourteen cities across the nation. The DOJ produced pamphlets translated into a myriad of languages, including Arabic, Urdu, and Farsi, to educate communities on civil rights protections, in an effort to reassure the American Muslim community that the government will not forsake their rights in order to prevent terrorist attacks. The Department of Justice and the Department of Homeland Security have a Building Communities of Trust (BCOT) initiative, which develops relationships between the law enforcement agencies in order to educate their communities on protection of civil rights, the Nationwide Suspicious Activity Reporting Initiative, and incident reporting to law enforcement.12 In its roadmap for future implementation, the federal government has stated that it intends to increase the level of engagement with Muslim communities and create more events that are particular to disseminating knowledge about countering violent extremism. 10 Jones, B. Todd, U.S. Attorney for the District of Minnesota. “Countering Violent Extremism through CommunityBased Approaches.” Offices of the United States Attorneys Briefing Room. July 2011. 11 Strategic Implementation Plan, p. 9. 12 Ibid. Islam 54 II. Law Enforcement Law enforcement has also emphasized the need to engage the American Muslim community through its counter-radicalization policy. By their very nature local governments are in greater position to reach large numbers of their constituents. The New York Police Department engages Muslim community members through its Community Partnership Program and its New Immigrant Outreach Unit.13 The Community Affairs Bureau, which administers these initiatives, set up a citywide youth cricket league in 2008. Over 100 teenagers ages fourteen to nineteen primarily of South Asian descent signed up.14 The bureau stated that its goal is “to have a good understanding and relationship with Muslim immigrant communities” in the New York Police Department. The Los Angeles Police Department has reached out to Muslim communities as part of its Community Engagement Initiative, as a need-finding measure to build a strong level of trust and steady partnership between Muslim communities and law enforcement.15 LAPD Deputy Chief Michael Downing has stated that the best way to fight terrorism is through engagement with the community.16 The LAPD’s Sheriff’s Department has established a Muslim Community Affairs Unit. The unit has created the Young Muslim American Leaders Advisory Council to interface with young Muslim leaders and holds monthly meetings with community members to provide training on issues such as hate crimes, identify theft, and domestic violence and allow for open discussion of issues important to the Muslim community. Moreover, the LAPD has reached out to the community outside traditional 13 See Community Affairs Bureau website, available at http://www.nyc.gov/html/nypd/html/community_affairs/special_outreach_programs.shtml. 14 Press Release, N.Y. Police Department, NYPD Forms Cricket League for New York City Youth. 22 July 2008. 15 Press Release, L.A. Police Department, LAPD ‘s Community Engagement Initiative, 11 Nov 2007. 16 Press Release, Muslim Public Affairs Council, On NYPD Surveillance, MPAC Works in Coalition with DOJ, Federal Agencies, Mayors Offices & LAPD. 24 Feb 2012. Islam 55 engagement activities, such as by attending religious celebrations and mosque open houses and by giving presentations at Islamic schools for show and tell and drug recognition.17 The Federal Bureau of Investigation has also created engagement initiatives with local Muslim communities in order to build a level of trust between the parties. For example, the Minneapolis division has pursued “enhanced engagement” with Arab and Muslim communities in order to protect the national security of the United States while preserving the individual civil rights of members of the community, building a lasting partnership based on mutual trust and respect.18 Each of the FBI’s 56 field offices has a Community Outreach Program under the leadership of a Community Outreach Coordinator. The Citizens’ Academy, a eight to ten week program conducted by all of the field offices teaches community leaders about the FBI’s mission, strategies, and operations.19 Realizing that youth are at the greatest risk of radicalization, field offices have sponsored teen academies to introduce FBI agents to young members of the community. The Adopt-A-School/Junior Special Agent program also serves as a bridge for agents to provide an amicable and trustworthy FBI image to youth adults. Within the community engagement segment of counter-radicalization policy, there is clearly significant agreement on its importance and implementation. Both the federal government and law enforcement have sought to develop strong partnerships with Muslim communities in order to strengthen community ties to give Muslims a sense that law enforcement would protect their civil rights while pursuing its counter-radicalization strategy. In congressional testimonies 17 See Los Angeles County Sheriff’s Department Muslim Community Affairs Unit, available at http://lasheriff.org/sites/muslimoutreach_new/Top_Stories/MCA%20Overview%20Jan%202011%20LoRes.pdf. 18 Press Release, FBI Minneapolis Division, Enhanced Engagement with Arab and Muslim American Communities, Available at http://www.fbi.gov/minneapolis/news-and-outreach/outreach/enhanced-engagement-with-arab-andmuslim-american-communities. 19 Hovington, Brett. Working with Communities to Disrupt Terror Plots: Hearing Before the Subcommittee On Intelligence, Information Sharing, and Terrorism Risk Assessment of the Committee On Homeland Security, House of Representatives, One Hundred Eleventh Congress, Second Session, March 17, 2010. Washington: U.S. G.P.O., 2010. Islam 56 officials from these government agencies have highlighted the creation of programs such as these as indicators of the success of their counter-radicalization. The effectiveness of metrics like these as indicators of counter-radicalization progress will be discussed in Chapter 5. Domestic Intelligence Domestic intelligence may be the most important part of counter-radicalization strategy to observe indicators of radicalization, but it is undoubtedly also the most controversial. Since radicalization presumably precedes a homegrown terrorist plot, it becomes difficult to monitor because cognitive radicalization is protected by the First Amendment – it is legal to have radical ideas. In this section I will show that while the federal government and local law enforcement have generally agreed in the policy area of community engagement, domestic intelligence seems to present a principal point of discontinuity between the policies of law enforcement and those of the federal government. I define domestic intelligence to consist of the use of both informants and undercover agents and surveillance to procure information about would-be terrorists. I. Federal Government Although the federal government itself, according to information that is publicly available, has not engaged in gathering domestic intelligence, officials have not excluded themselves from the discussion about the importance of domestic intelligence in counterradicalization. For example, the Department of Homeland Security has advocated for the need to “strengthen intelligence analysis” and research in order “to better understand the phenomenon of violent extremism.20 Obama administration officials have also emphasized resources allocated for domestic intelligence collection.21 However, the Obama administration has provided little 20 Department of Homeland Security Fact Sheet: The Department of Homeland Security’s Approach to Countering Violent Extremism, 2011, p. 2. 21 Remarks by Dennis McDonough. “Partnering with Communities to Prevent Violent Extremism in America.” 6 Mar 2011. Islam 57 public information on the implementation of domestic surveillance measures. Moreover, according to Faiza Patel from the Brennan Center for Justice at New York University, the National Counterterrorism Center nor DHS have provided specific guidelines as to how domestic intelligence for counter-radicalization purposes can be implemented without violating the Constitution.22 Although the federal government has not directly been involved in intelligence gathering, they have set up entities to help in the integration and coordination of intelligence gathering and sharing among federal, state, and local partners. The DOJ and the FBI have created the Joint Terrorism Task Forces (JTTF) to coordinate federal, state, and local investigative activities, with 106 active today. According to the FBI, the purpose of the JTTFs are to provide “one-stop shopping for information regarding terrorist activities” and “pool talents, skills, and knowledge from across the law enforcement and intelligence communities into a single team that responds together.”23 For example, the New York JTTF, in conjunction with the NYPD, was instrumental in uncovering the Newburgh Four plot, preventing four men from executing attacks on a Bronx synagogue and Jewish Center and shooting down military planes at Stewart Air National Guard Base.24 The JTTFs consist of multifaceted teams of investigators, analysts, linguists, SWAT experts and terrorism specialists. Although they existed before 9/11, 71 of the current 106 were created after the attacks, now employing a grand total of 4,400 law enforcement officials and agents.25 Although the JTTFs operate largely in secrecy, the FBI has said the JTTFs are “the 22 Patel, Faiza. “Rethinking Radicalization.” Brennan Center for Justice at NYU Law School. 2011, p. 1. “Protecting America From Terrorist Attack: Our Joint Terrorism Task Forces.” FBI Website, Available at http://www.fbi.gov/about-us/investigate/terrorism/terrorism_jttfs. 24 “Investigative Programs.” FBI Facts & Figures, 2010-2011. See http://www.fbi.gov/statsservices/publications/facts-and-figures-2010-2011/investigative-programs. 25 “Protecting America From Terrorist Attack: Our Joint Terrorism Task Forces.” FBI Website, Available at http://www.fbi.gov/about-us/investigate/terrorism/terrorism_jttfs. 23 Islam 58 nation’s front line on terrorism.”26 Bjelopera notes that “their operations are highly tactical and focus on investigations, developing human sources (informants), and gathering intelligence to thwart terrorist plots.”27 In addition to the JTTFs, the federal government has established fusion centers. With over 40 spread throughout the United States, they have also been important in coordinating intelligence sharing on the federal and local levels. The fusion centers were created to “broaden sources of data for analysis and integration beyond criminal intelligence, to include federal intelligence as well as private and public sector data.”28 Although the fusion centers are owned and operated by state and local entities, the Department of Homeland Security and Department of Justice provide personnel, connectivity to federal systems, technical assistance, and funding.29 Fusion center development occurred in two waves, in 2003 and 2005. Rollins notes that important influences for the development of the fusion centers were strong agreement amongst Governors that each state should have a fusion center and the support of important federal homeland security entities, such as the Director of National Intelligence and the Homeland Security Advisory Council. The fusion centers differ from the JTTFs because a majority of them serve a solely, or at least primarily, analytic role. Although the fusion centers provide support for operations and investigations, usually they are not directly involved in such activities.30 Moreover, although both prevention and response are functions the centers fulfill, there has been a bias towards preventive analysis, especially in terrorism prevention activities. Not only are the 26 Federal Bureau of Investigation, “Protecting America Against Terrorist Attack: A Closer Look at Our Joint Terrorism Task Forces,” May 2009. Available at http://www.fbi.gov/page2/may09/jttfs_052809.html. 27 Bjelopera, Jerome P.. “The Federal Bureau of Investigation and Terrorism Investigations” Congressional Research Service. December 28, 2011, p. 13-14. 28 Rollins, John. “Fusion Centers: Issues and Options for Congress.” Congressional Research Service. January 18, 2008, p. 1. 29 “National Network of Fusion Centers.” Department of Homeland Security State and Urban Area Fusion Centers. Available at http://www.dhs.gov/files/programs/gc_1156877184684.shtm#0. 30 Rollins, p. 23. Islam 59 fusion centers solely focused on counterterrorism, they have increasingly moved towards an allcrimes and even a broader all-hazards approach. Thus, although the federal government is not directly collecting intelligence and while there may be questions about the guidelines set for protection of civil liberties, there is no doubt that the federal government is actively involved in the integration and coordination of intelligence collection and analysis. They have provided funding, federal intelligence, and personnel for domestic intelligence investigations that have included homegrown terrorism incidents. II. Law Enforcement Law enforcement has been much more direct in its domestic intelligence collection activities, but this has also been the source of the greatest controversy. The LAPD, NYPD, and FBI have all had or attempted to have intelligence collection activities targeting the American Muslim community. I argue that in this area of counter-radicalization policy law enforcement has conflated counterterrorism and counter-radicalization efforts. Moreover, domestic intelligence in the early stages of cognitive radicalization is at serious risk of mistaking radicalization for religiosity. On November 9, 2007 the Los Angeles Police Department announced it was creating a community mapping project in order to identify hotbeds of radicalization in the Muslim community. Deputy Chief Michael Downing emphasized the need to identify at-risk communities, to know their location in order to be able to reach out to them more effectively.31 By the next day the LAPD was on the defensive because of outcry from some Muslim activists and civil libertarians. Critics, such as the Council on American-Islamic Relations, contended that 31 Renaud, Jean-Paul, Paul Pringle, and Richard Winton. LAPD to build data on Muslim areas. Los Angeles Times, November 9, 2007. Islam 60 the mapping project was impractical because Muslims in the United States are not isolated in enclaves like their European counterparts, making it nearly impossible to determine “where all the Muslims are,” which the LAPD had stated as its intent32 Downing, who announced the project, said the project would determine the geographic distribution of Muslims in the Los Angeles areas and take “a look at their history, demographics, language, culture, ethnic breakdown, socioeconomic status and social interactions.”33 The LAPD planned to combine forces with an unnamed academic institution and look for Muslim partner to help carry out the mapping project.34 The American Civil Liberties Union meanwhile rejected the project on principle, with then Executive Director Ramona Ripston comparing it to the Red Scare of the 1950s and claiming it was “nothing short of racial profiling”.35 Five days later, the project was no more. The LAPD stated that the original intent of the plan was “to bring together the department with the Muslim community” but the amount of discontent created within the community made terminating the mapping project the best approach.36 Since 9/11, the New York Police Department has become one of the country’s most aggressive domestic intelligence agencies.37 The NYPD had clandestine surveillance programs exposed by the Associated Press that monitored the daily lives of Muslims in New York and nearby areas in the Northeast, outside its traditional jurisdiction. Undercover agents were dispatched as part of an expansive human mapping project targeting the Muslim community. Bookstores, bars, cafes, and nightclubs were all venues of investigation. Moreover, the NYPD 32 Ibid. MacFarquhar, Neil. “Protest Greets Police Plan to Map Muslim Angelenos.” New York Times, November 9, 2007. 34 Ibid. 35 Richard Winton, Teresa Watanabe and Greg Krikorian. “LAPD defends Muslim mapping effort.” Los Angeles Times. November 10, 2007. 36 Richard Winton and Teresa Watanabe, “LAPD Muslim mapping project killed.” Los Angeles Times. November 15, 2007. 37 Apuzzo, Matt, and Adam Goldman. “With CIA Help, NYPD moves covertly in Muslim areas.” Associated Press. August 23, 2011. 33 Islam 61 used informants to analyze the sermons of imams in local mosques, looking for signs of extreme rhetoric.38 It is clear from their type of surveillance that the NYPD was focusing on the early stages of cognitive radicalization, creating conflict with expressive forms of Islamic religiosity, especially Salafi interpretations of Islam that the NYPD has identified as the root ideology of radicalization.39 Seeing the fallout from the LAPD mapping project, current and former officials in New York realized they needed to keep their domestic intelligence clandestine.40 Moreover, Larry Sanchez, the CIA veteran who was tapped to head the NYPD’s intelligence division, testified before the Senate Committee on Homeland Security that law enforcement would have to start monitoring behaviors that are innocuous, “looking at behaviors that could easily be argued in a Western democracy, especially in the United States, to be protected by First and Fourth Amendment rights.”41 Not only did the NYPD monitor Muslim communities in New York, but they also targeted Muslim students, sometimes in areas outside their traditional jurisdiction. NYPD undercover agents looked for signed of Salafism, especially with the kinds of speakers Muslim student associations brought to their events.42 One undercover agent also attended a white-water rafting trip with students, noting the number of times they prayed per day.43 Thus the NYPD engaged in monitoring the early stages of the cognitive radicalization process. The indicators they looked for essentially coincided with the individual’s interpretation of the Islamic religion. 38 Ibid. Bhatt, Arvin, and Mitchell D. Silber, “Radicalization in the West: The Homegrown Threat.” New York: NYPD Intelligence Division, City of New York Police Department, 2007, p. 6. 40 Apuzzo and Goldstein, supra note 19. 41 Violent Islamist Extremism, 2007: Hearings Before the Committee On Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs, United States Senate, One Hundred Tenth Congress, First Session. Washington: U.S. G.P.O., 2009. 42 Chris Hawley and Matt Apuzzo. “NYPD infiltration of college raises privacy fears.” Associated Press. Oct. 11, 2011. 43 Powell, Michael. “Police Monitoring and a Climate of Fear.” New York Times, February 27, 2012. 39 Islam 62 The FBI too has had its own fair share of problems with domestic surveillance of Muslim community members. The San Francisco divisional office, before it established its formal community outreach program, secretly collected information on its local Muslim community from 2004 to 2008 on mosque sermons and conversations among mosque attendees.44 The ACLU, who uncovered documents that detailed these collection activities through a Freedom of Information Act request, has alleged that the FBI has used its community outreach activities as fronts for clandestine intelligence that violates Constitutionally protected rights, while the FBI has rebutted the charge by claiming the intelligence collection has an important law enforcement justification in order to improve its outreach programs to Muslim communities.45 The FBI has also used undercover informants in mosques as a way to prevent homegrown terror attacks, recruiting individuals to provide insider intelligence from within Muslim communities. According to the New America Foundation, 36% of all homegrown terrorism cases have involved informants helping to uncover the plot. The FBI has contended that informants are an important part of their terrorism prevention work, but it has not come without drawing the ire of Muslim groups. For example, Craig Monteilh was employed to help build a case against a mosque member in an Irvine, California mosque, but his mission backfired – the Muslims at the mosque were so alarmed by his violent rhetoric that they obtained a restraining order against him further attending their mosque.46 Shakeel Syed, the executive director of the Shura Council of Southern California, a group representing over 75 mosques, stated that the Muslim community 44 Levine, Dan. “FBI said to have gathered intelligence on California mosques.” Reuters, Mar 27, 2012. Ibid. 46 Markon, Jerry. “Tension grows between Calif. Muslims, FBI after informant infiltrates mosque.” The Washington Post, December 5, 2010. 45 Islam 63 felt betrayed over the incident, undermining the FBI’s relationship with the Muslim community.47 The greatest source of disagreement between the federal government and law enforcement lies in the policy area of domestic surveillance. While there is much cohesion between how the federal government and law enforcement handles their community engagement programs, the differences in domestic surveillance prevent the establishment of a unified counter-radicalization policy. There is a significant discrepancy between policy on the federal level and policy implemented by law enforcement on a local level. The policy implications for this inconsistency in policy implementation will be discussed in the next chapter on the effectiveness of the counter-radicalization policy. Debating Policy Counter-radicalization policy has been a topic of intense debate among scholars. In this part of the thesis I will present the arguments of scholars who have engaged in this debate, separating them into two schools of thought: those who believe there must be some form of counter-radicalization policy and those who reject the need for any type of counter-radicalization policy. Is counter-radicalization policy necessary to prevent homegrown terrorism? Risa Brooks, whose research was referred to earlier to present the arguments of opponents to radicalization appearing on the public policy agenda in the second chapter, has also contributed to the argument about how unnecessary counter-radicalization policy could actually help to diminish the overall national security of the United States. In addition to concluding that the threat of American Muslim radicalization is not particularly severe, she also notes that mischaracterizing the threat could be extremely costly both financially and in terms of national security. Costs for homeland 47 Ibid. Islam 64 security have risen since 9/11, and overextended efforts put into unnecessary counterterrorism measures could detract from law enforcement attention needed in other areas.48 Overestimating the threat also diminishes the American public’s resiliency against terrorism because it invokes fears disproportionate to the actual threat. Rhetoric that magnifies this threat can also be deceptive considering the fact that most of these attacks are self-initiated and disconnected. Moreover, if an atmosphere is created in which the threat of homegrown terrorism appears severe, Brooks warns that law enforcement may use counterproductive methods that alienate the Muslim community and compromise the trust that exists between law enforcement officials and Muslim communities. This will have an adverse effect on law enforcement’s ability to capture terrorists because the Muslim American community has been instrumental in providing tips to officials and also self-policing their own community.49 Faiza Patel criticizes the Department of Homeland Security and National Counterterrorism Center for not expressly stating how exactly counter-radicalization policy that includes domestic surveillance can exist without impinging on protected Constitutional rights.50 Moreover, since radicalizing individuals are usually in contact with others that share similar views, Patel concludes that special counter-radicalization intelligence collection is not necessary – “targeted intelligence and normal police work” would allow law enforcement to identify violent extremists before they are able to commit a homegrown attack.51 Among the proponents of a counter-radicalization policy, there is an internal debate about the nuances of the policy. Is it appropriate for the government to engage in the theological debate surrounding Islamic ideology? Should domestic intelligence be a central part of the U.S. 48 Brooks, p. 43 Brooks, p. 45. 50 Patel, p. 1. 51 Ibid., p. 11. 49 Islam 65 domestic counter-radicalization strategy? These are the types of questions that scholars have tried to address. I divide this section into the main issues surrounding the design of counterradicalization policy, and highlight the debates specific to each of them. In some cases, the policy recommendations have near unanimity among scholars, and I note these cases where appropriate. Understanding the Muslim community Since the American Muslim community is perceived to be the primary target of alQaeda’s radicalization efforts, Peter Neumann emphasizes that the government must increase its understanding of the internal dynamics of the diverse Muslim community, in terms of the various ethnicities that compromise the community and the diverse political and religious beliefs that its members adhere to.52 Lorenzo Vidino complements this position by adding that Muslims in the United States are diverse and descend from numerous countries, requiring law enforcement to tailor their counter-radicalization policy to specific communities.53 Separation of Counterterrorism and Counter-radicalization Lorenzo Vidino stresses the importance of setting a clear differentiation between counterradicalization policy and counter-terrorism policy. Obscuring the two will stigmatize the Muslim community and make counter-radicalization policies less appealing to them, threatening the level of cooperation needed to ensure policy success.54 Neumann also recommends that the U.S. government should avoid securitizing its relationship with its community partners.55 However, as one law enforcement official put it, while all community outreach efforts do not need to be for the purpose of counter-radicalization, it is important to let the Muslim community know that the 52 Neumann, p. 41. Vidino, Lorenzo. “Toward a Radical Solution.” Foreign Policy. 5 Jan 2010. 54 Ibid. 55 Neumann, p. 8. 53 Islam 66 main goal is to prevent individuals from committing acts of homegrown terrorism.56 Thus, although it is important to not solely engage the Muslim community for security purposes, law enforcement should make it clear that they do want the community’s help in combating violent extremism, which would have mutual benefits for all parties involved. Choosing the right partners There must be partnerships created and maintained between the various Muslim groups in the United States, but the question of whether to incorporate Islamists, such as Muslim Brotherhood affiliates and Salafi groups, into the mix engenders debate among scholars. Neumann argues that although these groups should be engaged, there should be a clear differentiation between engagement and empowerment. Moreover, groups will not be suitable government partners if they do not meet some basic criteria, such as being committed to upholding the U.S. Constitution and denouncing terrorism and the killing of Americans all over the world. Since scholars and government officials alike have looked to British models for framing counter-radicalization policy in the U.S., we can also explore how Robert Lambert, former head of the Metropolitan Police Muslim Contact Unit in London, argues in favor of “police negotiation leading to partnership with Muslim groups conventionally deemed to be subversive to democracy.”57 Lambert notes that these Islamist groups have the credibility and legitimacy of the Muslim community to be able to convince radicalized individuals not to carry out attacks, and thus they are assets in preventing terrorism. He provides the example of the counter-radicalization program STREET (Strategy to Re-Empower and Educate Teenagers), which is run by Salafis in the Brixton district of London. Lambert notes that the program has been successful in countering the message of al-Qaeda-linked preachers in the area and 56 57 Interview with former LAPD official, 4 May 2012. Lambert, Robert. Countering Al Qaeda In London. London: C Hurst & Co Publishers Ltd, 2011, p. 1. Islam 67 preventing young men from joining their ranks. However, Vidino contends although the Islamists could provide benefits in the short-term, it is unclear what the long-term implications could be in terms of social cohesion and integration. Training of personnel Neumann argues that there should be training on engagement, outreach, and cultural competency in order to allow law enforcement officials that are responsible for developing with local Muslim communities. For example, there have been cases in which misunderstandings between law enforcement and the Muslim community have created tensions, such as the mischaracterization of an Islamic religious leader in an FBI outreach workshop in Seattle in 2011.58 FBI agents were also found to have trained using offensive material that characterized devout Muslims as potential violent extremists and characterized the Prophet Muhammad as a cult leader.59 It is clear that training material that conflates religiosity with radicalization and disparages Islamic leaders is detrimental to building strong partnerships with the Muslim community. The government needs to properly vet individuals who train law enforcement to make sure their training materials are based on fact and do not contribute to alienating the Muslim community from law enforcement. Confronting extremist ideology Should the United States support one interpretation of Islam over another? If the government perceives one school of Islamic thought to be more in tune with American ideals, should it intervene in ideological and theological matters against ideologies that are perceived to be dangerous and contributing to radicalization? Vidino argues that the U.S. government should be prepared to engage itself in this ideological debate in order to “find ways to counter the 58 59 Heffter, Emily. “FBI ends up offending Muslims at outreach workshop.” Seattle Times 10 Sept 2011, natl. ed. Goode, Erica. “FBI Chided for Training That Was Critical of Islam.” New York Times, 16 Sept. 2011. Islam 68 theological message of violent extremism,” but to tread carefully because of potential backfires.60 Neumann also espouses this viewpoint; he notes that “it might be appropriate to challenge the group and its ideology directly and aggressively.”61 According to them, groups in the U.S. advocating a religious ideology that is on par with al-Qaeda’s should be challenged through counter-messaging from the government. However, there is a serious potential for conflict if the government is perceived to be supporting one interpretation of religion over another, which raises legal issues of constitutionality. Samuel Rascoff argues that by pursuing this strategy the U.S. government is in potential conflict with the Establishment Clause of the Constitution, which prevents the government from establishing any form of official religion.62 Rascoff argues that by entering into the theological debate, government officials are establishing a form of Official Islam in the country. Moreover, unlike countries like Saudi Arabia and Indonesia, Muslim countries with counter-radicalization programs that use governmentemployed religious scholars during the cognitive radicalization process, the U.S. government is not in the position to pursue a similar strategy because it does not have the religious legitimacy of those Muslim countries.63 Capacity-building Possible at-risk areas for radicalization like prisons and the internet have also come under the radar of government officials. Hamm recommends that government should put more resources to expand its prisoner counter-radicalization program by hiring chaplains and Muslim American guards and counselors in order to make Muslin inmates feel less like outsiders in the 60 Vidino, Lorenzo. “Countering Radicalization in America: Lessons from Europe.” United States Institute of Peace Special Report 262, 2010, p. 11. 61 Neumann, p. 9. 62 Rascoff, Samuel. "Establishing Official Islam? The Law and Strategy of Counter-Radicalization," 64 Stanford L. Rev. 125 (2012) p. 130. 63 Hasan, Mehdi. “The Wrong Kind of Intervention.” The Guardian. 10 July 2010. Islam 69 prison environment.64 Bert Useem rebuts by stating that the number of individuals radicalized from prisons will be extremely small, and argues that as long as law enforcement continues to be alert and collaborative, the threat of prison radicalization will continue to diminish.65 Jerome Bjelopera notes that prisons have not played a significant role in creating homegrown terrorist plots.66 The internet has also been an avenue of radicalization for vulnerable individuals. For Vidino, the Internet has become a collaborative tool for “American aspiring jihadists and likeminded individuals worldwide.”67 However, while there have been cases of individuals radicalizing over the internet, such as the case of Major Nidal Hasan,68 the federal government is not in the position to take down websites by American citizens because they have violent ideas or extremist rhetoric. While websites originating overseas do not have the privilege of Constitutional protection, websites with extreme rhetoric in the United States cannot be as easily removed.69 For example, Revolution Muslim, a New York City Islamist group previously led by Jesse Morton (aka Younus Abdullah Muhammed), was able to continue operating its website for three years even though they posted messages in support of the September 11 terrorist attacks and the Fort Hood killings. The site was brought down and the Morton was arrested after he 64 Hamm, Mark. “Prisoner Radicalization: Assessing the Threat in U.S. Correctional Institutions.” National Institute of Justice Journal 261 (Oct. 2008), p. 1. 65 Useem, Bert. The Threat of Muslim-American Radicalization in U.S. Prisons: Testimony Before the Committee on Homeland Security, House of Representatives, One Hundred Eleventh Congress, First Session, Hearing Held June 15, 2011. Washington: U.S. G.P.O., 2011. 66 Bjelopera, Jerome P. and Mark A. Randol. “American Jihadist Terrorism: Combating a Complex Threat.” Congressional Research Service. 2010, p. 2. 67 Vidino, Lorenzo. “Homegrown Jihadist Terrorism in the United States: A New and Occasional Phenomenon?” Studies in Conflict & Terrorism, Vol. 32 No. 1 (2009), p. 12. 68 Major Nidal Hasan was communicating by e-mail with the radical imam Anwar Al-Awlaki before he staged his attack, See Ross, Brian. “How Anwar Al-Awlaki Inspired Terror from Across the Globe.” ABC World News. 30 Sept. 2011. 69 Written Statement of the ACLU. U.S. Strategy for Countering Jihadist Web Sites: Hearing Before the Subcommittee On Terrorism, Nonproliferation, and Trade of the Committee On Foreign Affairs, House of Representatives, One Hundred Eleventh Congress, Second Session, September 29, 2010. Washington: U.S. G.P.O., 2010. Islam 70 admitted to conspiring to solicit the murder of the artist tied to the “Everybody Draw Mohammed Day” movement in May 2010 and encouraging violent extremists to attack the writers of South Park because of an episode that featured Muhammad in a bear suit.70 Moreover, Jarret Brachman contends that the Internet is unlikely to be the sole sufficient place for a person to undergo radicalization, but rather a contributing medium for it.71 Profiling John Horgan notes that much of the discussion and thinking about terrorism is rooted in assumptions about profiling while at the same noting that no terrorist profile has yet been found.72 Horgan argues that “profiling the individual has no future in serious analyses of either the terrorist or the pathways in which he or she engages.”73 Instead of profiling individuals, Horgan argues that law enforcement should consider profiling the process of violent radicalization and the meaning of engagement with that process for the individual. This would provide a way to create phase-specific counterterrorism initiatives. However, Horgan does not explicitly mention how to profile these processes, and there are cautions law enforcement will have to take before engaging in such a policy. The process of violent radicalization will be difficult to monitor because at first the individual undergoes a process of conceptual radicalization, and it is not illegal to have violent ideas in the United States. Although the British have a more proactive radicalization policy, ideas, even violent ones, are protected by the First Amendment. Moreover, controversial methods of monitoring that were clandestine but 70 Press Release, “Leader of Revolution Muslim Pleads Guilty to Using Internet to Solicit Murder and Encourage Violent Extremism.” U.S. Attorney’s Office, Washington Field Office, February 9, 2012. 71 Understanding Cyberspace As a Medium for Radicalization and Counter-radicalization: Hearing Before the Terrorism, Unconventional Threats, and Capabilities Subcommittee of the Committee On Armed Services, House of Representatives, One Hundred Eleventh Congress, First Session, Hearing Held December 16, 2009.Washington: U.S. G.P.O., 2010. 72 Horgan, John. “From Profiles to Pathways and Roots to Routes: Perspectives from Psychology on Radicalization into Terrorism.” The ANNALs of the American Academy of Political and Social Science 618:80 (2008), p. 83. 73 Ibid., p. 92 Islam 71 eventually leaked to the press elicited angry outcry from the Muslim community, threatening counter-radicalization cooperation with law enforcement.74 Benchmarks The scholars who advocate for counter-radicalization policy underscore the need for methods to evaluate the effectiveness of the policy. Although they acknowledge the difficulty in developing metrics for counter-radicalization policy, the scholars argue that policymakers cannot determine successes and if objectives were reached without rigorous metrics, which have been overlooked in the past. Neumann and Vidino both hold this view, that metrics are critical to determining the success of the policy.75 Patel adds that a mechanism should be put in place for evaluating whether domestic surveillance in counter-radicalization policy actually contributes to the wider counterterrorism goal of preventing terrorist attacks.76 The full discussion of metrics is provided in the next chapter. Conclusion In this chapter I have shown the disagreement between the federal government and law enforcement in the domestic intelligence collection area of counter-radicalization policy. While there are many similarities between the federal government and law enforcement in how they handle their engagement and outreach initiatives with the Muslim community, there is no unified counter-radicalization policy from the national level to the local level. Scholars have debated the nuances of what the government’s policy should be, especially on the areas of challenging radical interpretations of Islamic ideology, choosing legitimate Muslim partners to collaborate with to counter radicalization, and whether policies with the intent to counter radicalization, as opposed to simply building strong relationships, only serve to alienate the community. The 74 See Sullivan, Eileen. “FBI recorded personal data at Muslim events.” San Francisco Chronicle. 1 Dec 2011. See Neumann, p. 22 and Vidino, p. 11. 76 Patel, p. 29. 75 Islam 72 government’s fractured counter-radicalization policy program raises the important question of whether there can be an effective policy when the primary stakeholders understand the issue differently and thus frame and implement policy inconsistently. Islam 73 Chapter 5: Benchmarks In the previous chapter I touched upon the emphasis put on metrics by scholars discussing counter-radicalization policy. In this chapter I will investigate the importance given to benchmarks by looking into organizational theory, evaluating the efficacy of benchmarks government officials have used for counter-radicalization policy, and providing policy recommendations for the future of counter-radicalization policy. In order to do a quantitative analysis of the cases, data from all 192 cases of homegrown extremism are used. Each individual who has radicalized and been indicted in a plot or crime relating to homegrown terrorism is defined to be a case of homegrown extremism.1 The full list of cases that are considered for this study are included in Appendix A. I will show that while government officials have touted certain examples of progress made in their counter-radicalization programs, they have not provided rigorous metrics to evaluate the effectiveness of their programs. I will argue that this is partly because there are no wholly proficient quantitative metrics to measure counterradicalization effectiveness. Moreover, efforts to defend or highlight the effectiveness of counter-radicalization policies have in many instances confuses benchmarks appropriate for measuring counterterrorism success with those for counter-radicalization. Bureaucratic Organizational Theory First, we start by asking: why are benchmarks so important to government agencies? Max Weber notes that the reason is because they serve as objective indicators of performance, which help to increase bureaucratic efficiency. The existence of benchmarks allows employees, at least presumably, to be judged on criteria that contribute to the output of the government organization 1 It is important to note that many of these individuals were not convicted of a terrorism charge and most of the cases did not actually lead to plots. However, these cases are still included because radicalization does not necessarily lead to the individual committing a violent act, but in many cases manifesting their radicalization in other ways, such as by providing material assistance to terrorist organizations or conspiring to engage in violence. Islam 74 as opposed to subjective measures like likability.2 James Wilson also describes the importance of measuring government personnel on their contribution to the organization rather than their political network. Legislation to enforce these criteria, known as the Pendleton Act, has three goals: “to hire employees on the basis of merit, to manage these employees effectively, and to treat all employees equally.”3 Benchmarks are also important in dealing with external overseers, which in the U.S. is usually Congress. As Wilson notes in his analysis of American bureaucracies, Congress possesses “an awesome arsenal of weapons that it can use against agencies: legislation, appropriations, hearings, investigations, personal interventions and ‘friendly advice’ that is ignored at an executive’s peril.”4 Moreover, members of Congress tend to prefer to hear straightforward and unambiguous progress on agencies’ objectives and goals, rather than hear about the difficulty in achieving results. Wilson describes this bias of Congress: “members of Congress like bureaucrats who do things for their district, accomplish stated goals economically, or (if they lack information on these matters) behave in a forthcoming and frank manner in their dealings with Congress with respect to the use of resources and the treatment of citizens.”5 Since this political dynamic exists within Congress, agency heads find it easier to deal with Congress when they have quantifiable metrics. No member of Congress is interested in why the job is difficult to measure. Thus agency executives have a strong incentive to provide Congress with numerical data, such as X number of arrests or Y number of plots foiled – even though sometimes these metrics can be misleading, incomplete, or counterproductive, and thus not true 2 Weber, Max. The Theory of Social and Economic Organization. New York: The Free Press, 1964, p. 340. Wilson, James Q. Bureaucracy: What Government Agencies Do and Why They Do It. New York: Basic Books, 1989, p. 139. 4 Ibid., p. 236. 5 Ibid., p. 252. 3 Islam 75 indicators of success.6 We can conclude that given the nature of bureaucracies, it is not unreasonable for Congress to desire metrics to measure policy success. We shall, however, see that quantitative metrics have less explanatory power when it comes to trying to measure counter-radicalization policy success. Although there is much scholarly discussion about the need for government to create benchmarks to evaluate their policies, there remains a gap in the literature in the discussion of how the government agencies pursuing counter-radicalization strategies have evaluated and presented the success of their programs to Congress. To provide this analysis, I look to government agencies’ public testimonies to Congress and their internal performance documents produced for Congress in order to understand how efficacy of these policies is being tracked. In multiple testimonies to government overseers, officials have discussed the progress regarding their counter-radicalization programs by highlighting new programs and the number of plots that have been foiled as a result of law enforcement activity. I intend to show that metrics such as these have weak explanatory power. Defining Effectiveness Before analyzing the metrics that the government has used to evaluate effectiveness, we must also define what effectiveness would be in this context. In looking at the way the government has defined effectiveness, we uncover some of the problems that have resulted in counter-radicalization metrics being confused for those more appropriate for counterterrorism. For example, Raymond Kelly has defended the NYPD monitoring programs before the New York City Council because of the fourteen plots that have targeted the city since 9/11.7 The NYPD has framed its success over the fact that “the 10 years since September 11, 2011 mark the 6 7 Zegart, Amy. Interview, November 2, 2011. Goldstein, Joseph. “Kelly Defends Surveillance of Muslims.” New York Times, Feb. 27, 2012. Islam 76 first decade-long period since the 1970s in which no terrorist attacks occurred in New York City, despite 14 plots targeting it.”8 For the NYPD, effectiveness is defined to be the absence of successful terrorist attacks. However, framing effectiveness is this way creates confusion and undermines the separation of counterterrorism and counter-radicalization metrics. While the foiling of the majority of plots might be a good way to look at counterterrorism success, the very existence of all those plots might be a negative indicator for counter-radicalization success. There has been a similar trend on the federal level. An analysis of the performance reports released by domestic national security agencies shows a similar lack of separation between counter-radicalization and counterterrorism and/or metrics that have dubious efficacy. Since President Obama signed the Government Performance and Results Accountability (GPRA) Modernization Act of 2010 into law, government agencies are required to provide Congress with policy performance updates on an annual basis.9 The DHS Performance Report for Fiscal Years 2010-2012 only references violent extremism in the context of law enforcement training: the percent of law enforcement officials trained by the DHS Office of Civil Rights and Civil Liberties on methods to counter terrorism and other violent acts is the only relevant benchmark.10 The training includes cultural competency, community engagement, and countering violent radicalization, but the effectiveness of the training is assessed by a 10-12 questionnaire post training. The Department of Justice does not address radicalization or homegrown terrorism directly in its performance report but does use number of “catastrophic acts of terrorism” as a 8 NYPD Webpage, “NYPD | Terrorist Plots.” Available at http://www.nyc.gov/html/nypd/html/pr/nypd_foils_plots_targeting_nyc.shtml 9 GPRA Modernization Act of 2010. [Washington, D.C.: U.S. G.P.O., 2011. 10 Fiscal Year 2012 Performance and Accountability Report. [Washington, D.C.: U.S. Dept. of Homeland Security]. Islam 77 metric for the FBI’s performance in preventing terrorism and promoting the nation’s security, with the goal of zero achieved for fiscal year 2011.11 The federal government and law enforcement agencies have not defined a clear strategic goal for counter-radicalization success, especially with respect to domestic intelligence collection. As I have showed in Chapter 4, on the domestic intelligence collection front, the government has confused counter-radicalization policies with those more appropriate for counterterrorism. This has reflected in the government’s framing of goals for effectiveness: there is a general lack of separation between the two policy areas. Although the absence of terrorist attacks is clearly the overall counterterrorism goal, the goals for counter-radicalization must be more specific, or the possibility of creating policies that are unconstitutional increase in order to fulfill goals through artificial metrics. Moreover, federal government officials have testified before Congress to highlight the creation of programs, but have provided little information about their overall effectiveness. The testimonies of interest came from the relevant congressional committees: the Senate Committee on Homeland Security and Government Affairs and Committee on Intelligence, and the House Committee on Intelligence and Committee on Homeland Security. The testimonies analyzed concerned homegrown terrorism either directly or indirectly.12 In addition to academics and former government officials who testify, the testimony of current officials from agencies like the Department of Homeland Security and the National Counterterrorism Center is particularly noteworthy. The full list of testimonies considered is provided in Appendix B. I argue that these government agencies have not provided any reliable quantitative metrics to measure the effectiveness of their counter-radicalization policies because there are no 11 Fiscal Year 2011 Performance and Accountability Report. [Washington, D.C.: U.S. Dept. of Justice]. While in many of the testimonies analyzed homegrown terrorism or radicalization was not the central topic for the testimony, officials would tend to at least address the topic briefly in their testimonies. 12 Islam 78 quantitative metrics to fully measure counter-radicalization policy success. A success in countering an individual’s path to radicalization would be the government’s direct or indirect efforts to prevent the individual from taking the final step to aid or undertake an act of violence. Since this concerns an individual’s thought process, it is impossible to measure. Government officials very well realize the extreme difficulty in trying to quantitatively measure the effectiveness of their programs to counter violent extremism. As James Clapper, the Director of National Intelligence, notes in a statement made to a joint testimony to the House and Senate Select Committees on Intelligence, “homegrown violent extremists are examples of the difficulty and complexity of defending against terrorists attacks generally, and of the asymmetric measure of success.”13 Clapper notes that the critical factors in countering terrorism are the expertise of the intelligence workforce, the integration of intelligence activities, and the expansion of information sharing.14 Others have also emphasized the move to become a more intelligence-driven organization as an indicator of better preparation for terrorism prevention. The Aspen Institute Homeland Security Group notes that the Department of Homeland Security continues to “expand its intelligence mission”15 and Mike Rogers, Chairman of the House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence emphasizes the need for the FBI to “complete its intelligence transformation.”16 13 Clapper, James. Joint Hearing to Mark the 10th Anniversary of 9/11: Statement for the Record, Committee on Intelligence, House of Representatives, One Hundred Twelfth Congress, First Session, Hearing Held June 15, 2011. Washington: U.S. G.P.O., 2012. 14 Ibid. 15 Aspen Institute Homeland Security Group. Homeland Security and Intelligence: Next Steps in Evolving the Mission. Testimony Before the Committee on Intelligence, House of Representatives, One Hundred Twelfth Congress, First Session, Hearing Held January 18, 2012. Washington: U.S. G.P.O., 2012. 16 Rogers, Michael. Domestic Threat Intelligence: Opening Statement, House Committee on Intelligence, One Hundred Twelfth Congress, First Session, Hearing Held October 4, 2011. Washington: U.S. G.P.O., 2012. Islam 79 Although it is important for the government to employ smart people in its intelligence agencies and work to improve integration and information sharing among the constituent agencies, metrics concerning these areas are not specific evaluators of counter-radicalization policy. We see that there is little separation between metrics used for counter-radicalization and counterterrorism. Moreover, these are not adequate indicators of counter-radicalization policy progress. Robert Mueller, director of the FBI, has used quantitative measures in these areas to highlight effective policy, such as the doubling of agents assigned to national security work, the increase in the number of Joint Terrorism Task Forces (JTTF)s and the increase of field offices since September 11.17 While they do indicate a growing law enforcement capacity, indicators like these do not provide the entire picture of success. For example, although as Mueller notes, the number of analysts and terrorism task forces has been increasing since 2009, this does not explain the peak in homegrown terror plots in 2009. The increase in law enforcement capacity does not present a good indicator of success in countering radicalization. Metrics such as this are short-term and fail to provide the larger picture of the extent of policy progress. Moreover, there has not been a strong push by congressional leaders to demand stronger metrics specific to counter-radicalization. Congressional members seem to be accepting measures like these as progress, whereas the level of understanding they provide in terms of progress is actually quite dubious.. In order to analyze the effectiveness of counter-radicalization policy, I divide the current counter-radicalization into two categories: community engagement and domestic intelligence collection. I use the data compiled in Appendix A to show through quantitative analysis that the 17 Mueller, Robert. The State of Intelligence Reform Ten Years After 9/11: Testimony Before the House Committee on Intelligence, One Hundred Twelfth Congress, First Session, Hearing Held October 6, 2011. Washington: U.S. G.P.O., 2012. Islam 80 benchmarks agencies of government have used show no conclusive results. The metrics are evaluated over time because we are interested in indications showing policy progress over time. Community Engagement In testimony to the House Committee on Homeland Security, Lee Baca stated that the LAPD measures success “by the trust that we enjoy with community leaders, members of the community in general, and the organizations that represent the community.”18 An indication of that trust is the number of “tips, leads, and reports of suspicious activity by Muslim community members and organizations.”19 There has been aggregate quantitative analysis done on crime reporting by the Muslim community concerning violent extremist plots. The New America Foundation has released figures stating that of the 192 incidents of homegrown terrorism, in 41 cases (21%) Muslims tipped and/or cooperated with law enforcement.20 The Muslim Public Affairs Council (MPAC) have contended that the figure is even higher when there Muslim cooperated helped to break up an actual terror plot, stating that Muslim communities have helped law enforcement uncover 2 out of every 5 Al-Qaeda homegrown plots.21 However, there is no similar analysis for how the tips have changed over time. I argue that although this is not a perfect indication of community engagement, this benchmark would indicate the effectiveness of the community policing model that both local law enforcement and the federal government have pursued, discussed in Chapter 4. To complete my analysis, I use all 192 cases of homegrown terrorism to investigate the level of community reporting. Although the majority of the cases were not actual terrorist plots, I use all the cases because we are not concerned with only cases 18 Baca, Lee. The Extent of Radicalization in the Muslim American Community and That Community’s Response: Testimony Before the House Committee on Homeland Security, One Hundred Twelfth Congress, First Session, Hearing Held June 15, 2011. Washington: U.S. G.P.O., 2012. 19 Ibid. 20 Tips and Cooperation by Muslim Communities and Families. New America Foundation, 2012. See http://homegrown.newamerica.net/about/tips-and-cooperation-muslim-communities-and-familes. 21 Beutel, Alejandro J. “Data on Post-9/11 Terrorism in the United States.” Muslim Public Affairs Council. Last updated January 9, 2012. Islam 81 with tips that lead to counterterrorism success – that would be a better metric for counterterrorism policy. Instead the cases where Muslim Americans provided tips provide a count of instances the Muslim community placed enough trust in law enforcement to provide them sensitive information about a member of their own. The data is presented in Figure 1, along with a polynomial regression. The plot shows a general trend of tips from the Muslim community decreasing from years 2002 to 2009, and then gradually increasing according to the polynomial regression fit to the data. It is important to note that in the years 2009 and 2010, where the number of incidents of homegrown terror was particularly large, the proportion of cases with Muslim community tips was relatively low, with 5% of cases in 2009 and 3% of cases in 2010. The difficulty I seek to show with this analysis is that it is hard to represent any substantive picture of how the Muslim community level of trust has changed over time. While it is clear that the Muslim community has contributed a significant number of tips overall to law enforcement, it is difficult to assess how that level of trust has changed over time from merely quantitative measurements. Figure 1: Number of Homegrown Extremism Cases Identified by Muslim Community Members Islam 82 Domestic Intelligence The more controversial aspect of government counter-radicalization strategy inevitably calls into question its efficacy. As noted above, law enforcement agencies such as the NYPD have defended their domestic intelligence programs by claiming they have helped to prevent terrorist attacks. An analysis of the NYPD surveillance programs produces more mixed results. The AP notes that while the NYPD surveillance programs were successful in uncovering certain plots like the 2004 Herald Square subway bombing plot in Manhattan, there were other cases that fell through. For example, they missed Najibullah Zazi, a congregant at a Queens mosque the NYPD had infiltrated, and Adis Medunjanin, a member of the Muslim student association the police kept tabs on. The two were accused of another subway bombing plot in New York City.22 However, again law enforcement has framed success using a metric more appropriate for counterterrorism than counter-radicalization evaluation. Moreover, the data for cases where informants and undercover agents were not used seem to paint a different story. The regression for the 192 incidents of homegrown terrorism where undercover agents or informants were not used is provided in Figure 2. 23 22 Matt Apuzzo, Adam Goldman, Eileen Sullivan. “NYPD’s spying programs yielded only mixed results.” Associated Press. December 23, 2011. 23 This is the union of all cases where undercover agents or informants were used subtracted from the total number of cases. Islam 83 Figure 2: Number of Homegrown Extremism Incidents without Informants or Undercover Agents As the data shows, the majority of incidents of homegrown extremism in 2009 and 2010 (the peak years) came to the attention of authorites through sources outside of law enforcement undercover agents or informants. This calls into the question the efficacy of these domestic intelligence programs. Regarding terrorist plots in New York City, the AP alleges that “the NYPD played little or no role in preventing many of those attacks.”24 The data seeems to suggest that law enforcement has been able to uncover the majority of incidents of homegrown extremism without the use of informants or undercover agents, raising questions about the efficacy of these domestic intelligence programs, especially ones that seek try to profile cognitive radicalization. Law enforcement has no easy task in trying to prevent acts of homegrown terrorism. From this analysis on benchmarks we see that identifying effective metrics is as comparable of a challenge. Weberian and Wilsonian bureaucratic and organizational theory posits that metrics, 24 Apuzzo, et al. Islam 84 especially quantitative ones, are important to external overseers like Congress. However, we see two important problems in Congress’ dealing with counter-radicalization metrics: 1) There is conflation of metrics for counter-radicalization and counterterrorism, and Congress has not pushed government officials for metrics specific to the former. 2) There are significant limits to using quantitative metrics like the number of new programs created to evaluate counter-radicalization progress. Metrics will continue to be important in evaluating policy, but the government must reconsider current couner-radicalization strategies in terms of the ability to measure their success. If there are no great quantitative metrics to measure the strategies, as we have seen with counterradicalization policies, should we continue with those strategies? It would be unwise to reach a conclusion merely based on the number of good metrics – indeed we would be falling prey to the very tendency Congress has shown: accepting, or in this case rejecting, policy progress based on some numerical values with no direct correlation. For example, although there is no strong quantitative indication of an increased beneficial level of engagement with the Muslim communtiy over the years, that does not necessarily mean stopping engagement events with Muslim community members will make no difference in counter-radicalization success. Instead, this chapter seeks to highlight the difficulty in finding suitable metrics for counter-radicalization and that Congress must restructure its oversight to account for this and provide more scrutiny to counter-radicalization policies that currently appear to be working only according to dubious metrics. Islam 85 Chapter 6: Conclusion The goal of this thesis has been to characterize the government’s approach to counterradicalization policy, understand how it perceives the issue of radicalization, how the issue rose to its present level on the public policy agenda, and investigate the benchmarks used to evaluate the policies. However, it is important to note the limitations of the thesis as a policymaking guide. The information used for analysis is unclassified and publicly available. It is possible that a different set of conclusions could be reached with access to classified information, especially in evaluating the effectiveness of counter-radicalization policy. For example, if government agencies have developed a series of internal classified metrics that may provide a better measure of effectiveness, then they might be able to glean more information from quantitative metrics. Moreover, the thesis seeks to fully characterize the government’s policy, not simply overly criticize the government for steps it has taken to characterize radicalization. I emphasize to the reader the difficulty in defining radicalization, devising policies that ensure national security while preserving civil liberties, and determining adequate benchmarks for measuring policy effectiveness. Within this context I have analyzed the puzzle of a seemingly increased threat of homegrown extremism by assessing the government’s counter-radicalization strategies. First, I have shown that there is a discrepancy in the definition of radicalization between law enforcement and the federal government. The federal government is less willing to describe Islamic ideology as the root of homegrown extremism. The Obama administration has instead preferred to use the term violent extremism to describe the phenomenon and Al-Qaeda’s ideology to classify the source, eschewing terms that associate terrorist activity with Islam. Law enforcement agencies, like the NYPD and the FBI, have been less hesitant to define Islam 86 radicalization in this way, characterizing the radicalization process as a linear conveyer belt-type model with Salafi Muslims entering on one end and violent jihadists exiting out the other. Second, the difference in conceptualization of the issue has led to differences in policy implementation. While there is much agreeement between the federal government and law enforcement on their community engagement programs, domestic intelligence collection is a principal point of disagreeement. Law enforcement has actively engaged in monitoring the early stages of the radicalization process, which overlaps extensively with outwardly displays of religiosity. The NYPD has conducted clandestine programs mapping restaurants, shops, and clubs that Muslims have frequented in order to identify potential hotbeds of radicalization. Federal officials have noted the importance of domestic intelligence collection and set up fusion centers and joint terrorism task forces to aid in information sharing of intelligence, but have not provided concrete guidelines for how domestic intelligence should be collected. Third, using Kindgon’s model of agenda-setting I have shown that the 2005 London bombings represented the turning point in the history of US domestic counterterrorism policy. The 2005 bombings, unlike other international cases like the 2004 Madrid bombings and domestic cases like the Lackawanna Six and Portland Seven in 2002, was the primary impetus that brought radicalization onto the public policy agenda in the United States. Moreover, scholars have diverged into two schools of thought regarding the place of radicalization on the agenda: the opponents like Charles Kurzman emphasize the inability of Al-Qaeda to inspire or recruit large numbers of American Muslims and the proponents like Robert Neumann acknoweldge that it is a limited problem but can have grave consequences if not understood and challenged. I conclude that althought it is a limited prroblem, it is unlikely to descend from the public policy Islam 87 agenda because of the sensitivity the public has towards and the attention the media has given Islamist terrorism since 9/11. Fourth, quantitative metrics are difficult to evaluate counter-radicalization success. I divided the policies into two areas of evaluation: community engagement and domestic intelligence collection. I used Muslim community tips for evaluating the trust level between American Muslim communities and law enforcement and the number of cases where undercover agents and informants did not play a role in uncovering plots to receive insight in the efficacy of the domestic intelligence program. I have shown that these metrics have limited explanatory power in measuring policy effectiveness because conclusive results cannot be obtained from statistical analysis of these metrics. According to Weber and Wilson’s theories of organizational behavior, metrics are imporant to organizations because external overseers have demanded them. However, I show that Congress has not put enough pressure on federal officials to demand metrics that are specific to counter-radicalization, often conflating metrics for counterterrorism and counterradicalization. Moreover, while the theory points to Congress’ obsession with numerical benchmarks, I posit that in the field of counter-radicalization policy, quantitative metrics do not solely provide an accurately picture of the success of counter-radicalization programs. These findings have given way to policy recommendations that could be useful to policymakers as they refine their counter-radicalization strategies. Counter-radicalization policy is still in its infancy, and while the Obama administration and law enforcement agencies have taken important strides in countering violent extremism, there are improvements and adjustments that could provide a better approach to radicalization. Islam 88 Policy Recommendations 1) Take steps to unify counter-radicalization policies The White House has designated itself as the leader for a whole-of-government approach to counter-radicalization policy. While the Obama administration is the first administration to release an official counter-radicalization policy, many questions remain regarding the policy implementation. The federal government should provide more specific details on how its policy on the national level can be integrated with the policies of local law enforcement. Although it is difficult to have a unified set of definitions across every level of government, the place of Islamic ideology in the definitions of radicalization and homegrown terrorism is something that must be resolved. This discrepancy has presented itself in the divergent policies law enforcement and the federal government have crafted, and also is a point of contention for American Muslims who resent the association of their entire faith with terrorism. 2) Modify the domestic surveillance in counter-radicalization policy The domestic surveillance program, as it is presently crafted, stands little chance of counterradicalization success. While law enforcement has sought to identify and monitor potential “hotspots” of radicalization, they have done little to counter the radicalization process. Instead the focus has been to monitor individuals until they are at the brink of committing a homegrown attack and then sending in undercover agents to stage sting operations. Monitoring American Muslims solely on the basis of their religion is in conflict with Constitutional protections of religious freedom and should be eliminated. These also run counter to the U.S. Attorneys Guidelines for FBI national security investigations, which state that race, ethnicity and religion are not sufficient factors to open an investigation into an Islam 89 individual.1 Domestic intelligence collection as it now stands undermines the overall counterradicalization policy because clandestine monitoring programs have only helped to build mistrust between local law enforcement and their Muslim communities. The monitoring and surveillance of the early stages of cognitive radicalization should be eliminated. 3) Establish a clear separation of counter-radicalization and counterterrorism metrics In numerous testimonies and public statements, government officials working in the counterradicalization area have provided metrics more appropriate for counterterrorism, such as foiled plots, as an indicator of policy success. While this can reasonably be considered a counterterrorism success, the same metric cannot be applied for counter-radicalization. In fact, it is a counter-radicalization failure because the individual has completed the process to radicalization and is willing or trying to commit a homegrown terrorist attack. Moreover, officials seem in many cases to lack goals that are specific to countering radicalization, instead framing effectiveness in terms of the wider counterterrorism goal. There must be an unambiguous separation between benchmarks appropriate for counterterrorism and those for counter-radicalization. Members of Congress should push for government agencies for more information regarding how they define success for their counter-radicalization, rather than accept indicators like number of offices or number of analysts, which have dubious correlation even to counterterrorism success. 4) Understand the limits of quantitative metrics There are limits to the insights that Congress and government officials can glean from quantitative metrics for counter-radicalization. In the quantitative analysis I have presented, I 1 Attorney General Guidelines for FBI Criminal Investigations, National Security Investigations, and the Collection of Foreign Intelligence: Hearing Before the Select Committee On Intelligence of the United States Senate, One Hundred Tenth Congress, Second Session, September 23, 2008. Washington: U.S. G.P.O., 2009. Islam 90 have shown that quantitative metrics lack great explanatory power in assessing counterradicalization policy. Does the trend in Figure 1 showing a relative decrease from 2002 to 2010 indicate a level of distrust forming between law enforcement and their Muslim communities? Does this mean that the community engagement initiatives created by law enforcement and federal agencies are not working? While metrics are necessary for policy, policymakers should be suspicious of abstruse measures like number of offices or number community events held. As Bjelopera notes, “counting the number of engagements events is one thing. It is quite another evaluating their impact.”2 It seems the Obama administration has already begun to digest this conclusion, stating in its counter-radicalization strategy implementation plan that “future evaluations will shift away from benchmarks performance measures towards impact assessments.”3 However, the administration has not defined the structure of those impact assessments, and so it remains unknown the extent to which counter-radicalization policies can be measured on a more holistic level, incorporating both quantitative and qualitative data. Radicalization continues to be a hot issue for policymakers and academics. The extrapolation of current homegrown terrorism data to predict the future outlook of the threat remains difficult if not impossible. The number of terrorism cases in 2011 has already decreased from the peak numbers seen in 2009 and 2010, but can large groups of American Muslims radicalize again? And what effect will the US military drawdown in Iraq and Afghanistan have on violent extremism? While some analysts have predicted a deterioration in the security 2 Bjelopera, Jerome P. and Mark A. Randol. “American Jihadist Terrorism: Combating a Complex Threat.” Congressional Research Service. 2010, p. 72. 3 Strategic Implementation Plan for Empowering Local Partners to Prevent Violent Extremism In the United States. [Washington, D.C.: Executive Office of the President, 2011, p. 6. Islam 91 situation abroad,4 there is a possibility of a decrease of terrorism at home. Robin Wright, a senior fellow at the New America Foundation, notes that “Islamist terrorist [is] being spread partly by the war on terrorism – or actually, by two wars on terrorism, in Iraq and Afghanistan.”5 While the future is uncertain, homegrown extremism, although a limited problem, remains high on the public policy agenda and the government as a whole should take steps to clearly convey its definitions, its policy, and metrics for success. 4 The latest National Intelligence Estimate (NIE), still classified but leaked to the press, describes reductions in U.S. forces as a contributor to stalemate in the war and a factor in leading to negative consequences in the aftermath of the withdrawal. See Schake, Kori. “In Afghanistan, military success and overall failure.” Foreign Policy. January 13, 2012. 5 Wright, Robert. “Who Created Major Hasan?” New York Times Opinion Pages. November 21, 2009. 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Islam 99 Appendix A: Cases of Homegrown Extremism1 Name Year Arrested Citizenship Muslim Community Tip Al Saoub, Habis Abdulla Ford, Patrice Lumumba Bilal, Ahmed Ibrahim Bilal, Muhammad Ibrahim Battle, Jeffrey Leon 2002 No No Yes No Yes No Yes No Yes Hawash, Maher 2003 No Yes Lewis, October Martinique Mandhai, Imran 2003 No Yes Yes Yes Bishop, Charles 2002 Lindh, John Walker 2002 Galab, Faysal 2002 Mosed, Shafal 2002 Taher, Yassein 2002 Goba, Yahya 2002 Alwan, Sahim 2002 Legal resident U.S. born citizen U.S. born citizen U.S. born citizen U.S. born citizen Naturalized citizen U.S. born citizen Legal resident U.S. born citizen U.S. born citizen U.S. born citizen U.S. born citizen U.S. born citizen U.S. born citizen U.S. born citizen Informant or Undercover Agent Yes 2002 2002 2002 2002 2002 Major Plots2 Portland Seven3 No No No No Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Lackawanna Six 1 This data was compiled from the New America Foundation’s database of homegrown jihadist cases (Available at http://homegrown.newamerica.net/jihadist), the Southern Poverty Law Center’s intelligence report on terrorism (Available at http://www.splcenter.org/get-informed/intelligence-report/browse-all-issues/2011/fall/ten-yearsafter/30-terrorist-attacks-an), and the Congressional Research report on American Jihadist Terrorism (Available at http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/terror/R41416.pdf). 2 In the cases where there was a serious plot in formation or where a group of individuals conspired to form a plot together, the plot is identified. 3 Two members of the group, Maher Hawash and October Lewis, were arrested a year later from the others in 2003, but are presented with the other members in the table. Islam 100 al-Bakri, Mukhtar 2002 Derwish, Kamal 2002 Elbaneh, Jaber A. 2003 Padilla, Jose 2002 Ujaama, James 2002 al-Marri, Ali Osman, Semi 2002 2002 Hassoun, Adham 2002 Hadayet, Hesham Mohamed Jokhan, Shueyb Mossa Khan, Majid Kwon, Yong Ki 2002 Royer, Randall 2003 Abdur-Raheem, Caliph Basha Chapman, Seifullah 2003 Benkhala, Sabri 2003 2002 2002 2003 2003 Hasan, Mahmood 2003 Khwaja Aatique, Muhammed 2003 Abdur-Raheem, Hammad Surratt, Donald Thomas Al-Timmi, Ali 2003 Chandia, Ali Asad 2003 Khan, Masaud 2003 Al-Hamdi, Ibrahim 2003 2003 2003 Naturalized citizen U.S. born citizen Naturalized citizen U.S. born citizen U.S. born citizen Student visa Legal resident Illegal resident Legal resident Naturalized citizen Refugee Naturalized citizen U.S. born citizen U.S. born citizen U.S. born citizen U.S. born citizen Naturalized citizen Legal resident U.S. born citizen U.S. born citizen U.S. born citizen U.S. born citizen U.S. born citizen Legal Yes Yes Yes No Yes No No No No No No No No No No No No No Yes Yes No Yes No No Yes No Yes No Yes No Yes No Yes No Yes No Yes No Yes No Yes No Yes No Yes No Yes No Lackawanna Six accomplice Dirty bomb plot Virginia Paintball Plot Islam 101 Paracha, Uzair 2003 Akbar, Hasan 2003 Abdi, Nuradin Faris, Iyman 2003 2003 Lewis, October Martinique Cousins, Clifton L. 2003 Elshafay, James 2004 Siraj, Shahawar Matin Warsame, Mohammed Abdullah Babar, Mohammed 2004 resident Legal resident U.S. born citizen No No No No Refugee Naturalized citizen No No No No U.S. born citizen U.S. born citizen U.S. born citizen Illegal resident Legal resident No No No No No Yes No Yes No No 2004 Legal resident No No al Saoub, Habis Abdulla Anderson, Ryan 2004 No No No Yes Aref, Yassin Muhiddin Hossain, Mohammed Mosharref Ali, Ahmed Omar Abu Samana, Hammad 2004 Legal resident U.S. born citizen Refugee No Yes No Yes No No No No Patterson, Gregory 2005 No No James, Kevin 2005 No No Washington, Levar 2005 No No Shah, Tarik 2005 No Yes Hayat, Hamid 2005 Naturalized citizen U.S. born citizen Legal resident U.S. born citizen U.S. born citizen U.S. born citizen U.S. born citizen U.S. born No Yes 2003 2004 2004 2004 2003 2005 Attack on US soldiers in Kuwait Brooklyn Bridge bombing plot Herald Square subway bombing plot Bush assassination plot Albany mosque plot Jamiyyat UlIslam IsSaheeh – Plot to attack southern California targets Islam 102 Jayyousi, Kifah 2005 Sabir, Rafiq 2005 Chandia, Ali Asad 2005 alMutazzim, Mahmud Faruq Brent Gadahn, Adam 2005 Sadequee, Ehsanul Islam Ahmed, Syed Haris 2005 Amawi, Mohammad Zaki El-Hindi, Marwan Othman Mazloum, Wassim I. 2005 Taheri-Azar, Mohammed Reza Phanor, Stanley Grant Batiste, Narseal 2005 Abraham, Patrick 2006 Herrera, Naudimar 2006 Augustin, Burson 2006 Lemorin, Lyglenson 2006 Augustine, Rotschild 2006 Williams, Kobie Diallo Shah, Syed Maaz 2006 Qazi, Shiraz Syed 2006 Mirza, Adnan Baber 2006 2005 2005 2005 2005 2006 2006 2006 citizen Naturalized citizen U.S. born citizen Naturalized citizen U.S. Born citizen U.S. born citizen U.S. born citizen Naturalized citizen U.S. born citizen Naturalized citizen Legal resident Naturalized citizen U.S. born citizen U.S. born citizen Legal resident U.S. born citizen U.S. born citizen Illegal immigrant U.S. born citizen U.S. born citizen Pakistani national Pakistani national Pakistani No No No Yes No No No Yes No No No No No No Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes No No No Yes No Yes No Yes No Yes No Yes No Yes No Yes No Yes No Yes No No No Yes Washington DC building bombing plot Toledo, Ohio Plotters UNC vehicular murder plot Liberty City Seven – Plot to bomb Sears Tower Islam 103 Shareef, Derrick 2006 Haq, Naveed 2006 Farhane, Abdulrahman Hashmi, Syed 2006 Ahmed, Zubair 2007 Ahmed, Khaleel 2007 Maldonado, Daniel 2007 Duka, Dritan 2007 Duka, Shain 2007 Duka, Eljvir 2007 Tatar, Serdar 2007 Abdullahu, Agron 2007 Shnewer, Mohamad Ibrahim Defreitas, Russell 2007 Paul, Christopher 2007 Hall, Paul 2007 Ahmed, Khaleel 2007 Vinas, Bryant Neal 2008 Shumpert, Ruben L. 2008 Siddiqui, Aafia Bana, Jamal Sheikh 2008 2008 2006 2007 national U.S. born citizen U.S. born citizen Naturalized citizen Naturalized citizen Naturalized citizen U.S. born citizen U.S. Born citizen Illegal resident Illegal resident Illegal resident Legal resident Legal resident Naturalized citizen Naturalized citizen U.S. born citizen U.S. born citizen U.S. born citizen U.S. born citizen No Yes No No No No No No Yes Plot to attack Rockford, Illinois shopping mall Toledo Plot accomplices Yes No No No Yes No Yes No Yes No Yes No Yes No Yes No Yes No No No Yes No No No No U.S. born No citizen Student visa No Naturalized No citizen Fort Dix Plot JFK jet fuel bombing plot Long Island Railroad bombing plot Yes No No Islam 104 Ahmed, Shirwa 2008 Naturalized citizen U.S. born citizen U.S. born citizen U.S. born citizen Legal resident U.S. born citizen No No Cromitie, James 2009 No Yes Williams, David 2009 No Yes Williams, Onta 2009 No Yes Payen, Laguerre 2009 No Yes Muhammad, Abdulhakim 2009 No No Boyd, Daniel Patrick 2009 U.S. born citizen Legal resident Naturalized citizen U.S. born citizen U.S. born citizen U.S. born citizen U.S. born citizen Naturalized citizen U.S. born citizen Legal resident U.S. born citizen No Yes Sherifi, Hysen 2009 No Yes Subasic, Anes 2009 No Yes Boyd, Zakaria 2009 No Yes Boyd, Dylan 2009 No Yes Hassan, Mohammad Omar Aly Mohammad, Jude Kenan Yaghi, Ziyad 2009 No Yes No Yes No Yes Kaziu, Betim 2009 No No Zazi, Najibullah 2009 No No Finton, Michael 2009 No Yes Smadi, Hosam 2009 Illegal resident No Yes Abousamra, Ahmed 2009 U.S. born citizen No Yes 2009 2009 Newburgh Four Shooting at Little Rock, Arkansas military recruiting center Quantico base bombing plot NYC subway bombing plot Plot to bomb Springfield, IL federal building Plot to bomb Dallas, TX skyscraper Plot to Islam 105 Mehanna, Tarek 2009 U.S. born citizen No Yes Headley, David 2009 U.S. born citizen No No Hasan, Nidal Malik 2009 No No Chaudhry, Umar 2009 Yes No Zamzam, Ramy 2009 Yes No Minni, Ahmad A. 2009 Yes No Khan, Waqar 2009 Yes No Yemer, Aman Hassan Salat, Mustafa 2009 Yes No No No Omar, Ahmed Ali 2009 No No Maruf, Zakaria 2009 No No Ahmed, Salah Osman Abshir, Khalid Mohamud Hassan, Mohamed Abdullahi Isse, Abdiweli Yassin Faarax, Cabdullaahi Ahmed Isse, Abdifatah Yusuf Kastigar, Troy Matthew LaRose, Colleen 2009 No No No No No No No No No No No No No No No No Shahzad, Faisal 2010 U.S. born citizen Naturalized citizen Naturalized citizen U.S. born citizen U.S. born citizen U.S. born citizen Legal resident Legal resident Legal resident Naturalized citizen U.S. born citizen Legal resident Legal resident Naturalized citizen Naturalized citizen U.S. born citizen U.S. born citizen Naturalized citizen No No 2009 2009 2009 2009 2009 2009 2009 2010 assassinate US politicians and attack shopping malls Plot to attack Jyllands-Posten newspaper offices Fort Hood shooting Five northern Virginia men to Pakistan Attempted car bombing in Times Square Islam 106 Alessa, Mohamed 2010 U.S. born citizen Naturalized citizen U.S. born citizen U.S. born citizen U.S. born citizen U.S. born citizen U.S. born citizen U.S. born citizen U.S. born citizen U.S. born citizen Yes Yes Almonte, Carlos 2010 Yes Yes Rockwood, Paul 2010 No No Chesser, Zachary 2010 No No Morton, Jesse Curtis 2010 No No Masri, Shaker 2010 No Yes Jehad, Mostafa 2010 No No Hammami, Omar 2010 No No Shehadeh, Abdel Hameed Ahmed, Farooque 2010 No No No Yes Mohamud, Mohamed Osman 2010 U.S. born citizen Yes Yes Martinez, Antonio 2010 U.S. born citizen Yes Yes Aldawsari, Khalid Ali-M Ferhani, Ahmed 2010 No No No Yes Mamdouh, Mohamed Ali, Abdisalan 2010 No Yes No No elShukrijumah, Adnan Ahmedzay, Zarein 2010 No No No No Hasanoff, Sabirhan 2010 Legal resident Legal resident Naturalized citizen Naturalized citizen Naturalized citizen Naturalized citizen Naturalized citizen No No 2010 2010 2010 2010 Plot to bomb Washington DC subway stations Plot to detonate van packed with explosives in Portland Plot to attack a Maryland armed force recruiting station Plot to bomb US targets Plot to attack New York City targets Islam 107 al-Hanafi, Wasam 2010 Doreh, Issa 2010 Shahzad, Faisal 2010 Medunjanin, Adis 2010 Abdi, Abikadir Ali 2010 Bujol, Barry 2010 Mohamud, Ahmed Nasir Taalil Yusuf, Mohamud Abdi Yusuf, Nima Ali 2010 Ouazzani, Khaled 2010 Khan, Raja Lahrasib 2010 2010 2010 Hussein, Abdi Mahdi 2010 Mobley, Sharif 2010 Paulin-Ramirez, Jamie Awlaki, Anwar 2010 Melaku, Yonathan 2011 Abdul-Latif, Abu Khalid Mujahidh, Walli 2011 Begolly, Emerson 2011 Abdo, Naser 2011 2010 2011 U.S. born citizen Naturalized citizen Naturalized citizen Naturalized citizen Legal resident U.S. born citizen Legal resident Refugee No No No No No No No No No No No Yes No No No No Legal resident Naturalized citizen Naturalized citizen Legal resident U.S. born citizen U.S. born citizen U.S. born citizen Legal resident No No No No No Yes No No No No No No No No No No U.S. born citizen U.S. born citizen U.S. born citizen Yes Yes Yes Yes No No U.S. born citizen No No Plot to shoot targets in Washington DC Plot to Attack Seattle Military Processing Center Plot to encourage jihadist acts in the US Plot to attack targets near Fort Hood Islam 108 Hasbajrami, Agron 2011 Legal resident U.S. born citizen No No Ferdaus, Rezwan 2011 No Yes Hammadi, Mohanad Shareef Khan, Hafiz 2011 Refugee No Yes 2011 Naturalized citizen Naturalized citizen Naturalized citizen Naturalized citizen Refugee No No Khan, Irfan 2011 No No Pimentel, Jose 2011 No Yes Orbach, Oded 2011 No No Alwan, Waad Ramadan Brice, Joseph Jeffrey 2011 No Yes U.S. born citizen Naturalized citizen Legal resident No No Pouryan, Alwar 2011 No No Khalid, Mohammad Hassan 2011 No No 2011 Plot to fight in Pakistan Plot to attack US Capitol and Pentagon Islam 109 Appendix B: Congressional Hearings on Radicalization Senate Committee on Homeland Security & Government Affairs Homegrown Terrorism: The Threat to Military Communities Inside the United States. Hearing Before the Committee On Homeland Security and Government Affairs, Senate, One Hundred Twelfth Congress, First Session, Hearing Held December 7, 2011. Washington: U.S. G.P.O., 2012. Intelligence Reform--2010: Hearings Before the Committee On Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs, United States Senate, One Hundred Eleventh Congress, Second Session. Washington: U.S. G.P.O., 2011. Violent Islamist Extremism: al-Shabaab Recruitment in America. Hearing Before the Committee On Homeland Security and Government Affairs, Senate, One Hundred Eleventh Congress, First Session, Hearing Held March 11, 2009. Washington: U.S. G.P.O., 2010. The Roots of Violent Islamist Extremism and Efforts to Counter It: Hearing Before the Committee On Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs, United States Senate, One Hundred Tenth Congress, Second Session, July 10, 2008. Washington: U.S. G.P.O., 2009. Violent Islamist Extremism, 2007: Hearings Before the Committee On Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs, United States Senate, One Hundred Tenth Congress, First Session. Washington: U.S. G.P.O., 2009. House Committee on Homeland Security Extent of Radicalization in the American Muslim Community and that Community’s Response: Hearing Before the Committee On Homeland Security, House of Representatives, One Hundred Twelfth Congress, First Session, March 10, 2011. Washington: U.S. G.P.O, 2012. The Threat of Muslim-American Radicalization in US Prison: Hearing Before the Committee On Homeland Security, House of Representatives, One Hundred Twelfth Congress, First Session, June 15, 2011. Washington: U.S. G.P.O, 2012. Al Shahaab: Recruitment and Radicalization within the Muslim American Community and the Threat to the Homeland: Hearing Before the Committee On Homeland Security, House of Representatives, One Hundred Twelfth Congress, First Session, July 27, 2011. Washington: U.S. G.P.O, 2012. Violent Extremism: How Are People Moved From Constitutionally-protected Thought to Acts of Terrorism? : Hearing Before the Subcommittee On Intelligence, Information Sharing, and Terrorism Risk Assessment of the Committee On Homeland Security, House of Representatives, Islam 110 One Hundred Eleventh Congress, First Session, December 15, 2009. Washington: U.S. G.P.O., 2011. Federal Government Intelligence Sharing with State, Local and Tribal Law Enforcement: An Assessment Ten Years After 9/11. Hearings Before the Committee On Homeland Security, House of Representatives, One Hundred Twelfth Congress, First Session, February, 28 2012. Washington: U.S. G.P.O, 2012. Senate Select Committee on Intelligence Current and Projected National Security Threats to the United States: Hearing Before the Committee on Intelligence, Senate, One Hundred Twelfth Congress, First Session, Hearing Held January 31, 2012. Washington: U.S. G.P.O., 2012. Joint Hearing to Mark the 10th Anniversary of 9/11, Committee on Intelligence, House of Representatives, One Hundred Twelfth Congress, First Session, Hearing Held September 13, 2011. Washington: U.S. G.P.O., 2012. House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence The State of Intelligence Reform Ten Years After 9/11: Hearing Before the House Committee on Intelligence, One Hundred Twelfth Congress, First Session, Hearing Held October 6, 2011. Washington: U.S. G.P.O., 2012. Homeland Security and Intelligence: Next Steps in Evolving the Mission. Hearing Before the Committee on Intelligence, House of Representatives, One Hundred Twelfth Congress, First Session, Hearing Held January 18, 2012. Washington: U.S. G.P.O., 2012. Domestic Threat Intelligence, House Committee on Intelligence, One Hundred Twelfth Congress, First Session, Hearing Held October 4, 2011. Washington: U.S. G.P.O., 2012. House Committee on Foreign Affairs U.S. Strategy for Countering Jihadist Web Sites: Hearing Before the Subcommittee On Terrorism, Nonproliferation, and Trade of the Committee On Foreign Affairs, House of Representatives, One Hundred Eleventh Congress, Second Session, September 29, 2010. Washington: U.S. G.P.O, 2010. House Committee on Armed Services Understanding Cyberspace As a Medium for Radicalization and Counter-radicalization: Hearing Before the Terrorism, Unconventional Threats, and Capabilities Subcommittee of the Committee On Armed Services, House of Representatives, One Hundred Eleventh Congress, First Session, Hearing Held December 16, 2009.Washington: U.S. G.P.O., 2010. Islam 111
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