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Algerian low / moist LLJ
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LOW LEVELS
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pattern
Cold-core cut-off low / ULJ
Baroclinicity / moist LLJ
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UPWARD QUASIGEOSTROPHIC FORCING 500 hPa
MID- UPPER LEVELS
LOW LEVELS
7286
(YROYLQJ6WURQJ
pattern
Cold-core cut-off low / ULJ
Baroclinicity / moist LLJ
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- ,QWHUDFWLRQ: two-way
- ,&DQG%&: NCEP global analysis + Surface and Upper air obs.
- *$1',$: 36 h, from 00 UTC 3 Nov. 1987
- 7286: 24 h, from 00 UTC 20 Oct. 1982
3K\VLFDOSDUDPHWHUL]DWLRQV
- 3%/: Based on Blackadar (1979) scheme (Zhang and Anthes 1982)
- *URXQGWHPSHUDWXUH: Force-restore slab model (Blackadar 1979)
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- ([SOLFLWFRQYHFWLRQ: Cloud water, rainwater, cloud ice and snow (Zhang 1989)
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Location / Stationarity: well
QPF: underestimated
Algerian low / Mesolow
Convergence ahead of LLJ
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PRECIPITATION
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
PRECIPITATION
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
7286
Location / Stationarity: well
QPF: underestimated
Westward-moving low / ULJ
Embedded mesolow
Convergence over SE Spain
7286
Location / Stationarity: well
QPF: underestimated
Westward-moving low / ULJ
Embedded mesolow
Convergence over SE Spain
11
PRECIPITATION
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
7286
Location / Stationarity: well
QPF: underestimated
Westward-moving low / ULJ
Embedded mesolow
Convergence over SE Spain
*$1',$
Strong WV flux convergence
Boundary of instability
E-W elongated moist tongue
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WV FLUX CONV. / CONVECT. INST. / PW
FRONTOGENESIS / UPWARD MOTION
7286
Strong WV flux convergence
Convective instability
High values of PW
Frontogenetic action
Upward motion in response
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*$1',$
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Coastal plume of moist, ascending air
Precipitation efficiency / Mesolow
Explicit convection
Local orography
60% precipitation
MODEL SOUNDING AT S
W-E CROSS SECTION
(CIRCULATION / RELATIVE HUMIDITY)
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7286
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Deep plume of moist, ascending air / Dynamic forcing
Precipitation efficiency / Mesolow
Explicit convection
Local orography
30% precipitation
MODEL SOUNDING AT S
W-E CROSS SECTION
(CIRCULATION / RELATIVE HUMIDITY)
13
*$1',$
Rainfall suppression
No inland peak
SLP appreciably modified
Less convergence / Shift LLJ
12$7/$6
12/$7(17+($7
PRECIPITATION
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
PRECIPITATION
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
FULL SIMULATION
FULL SIMULATION
7286
Rainfall suppression
No inland structure
SLP appreciably modified
Shift Low / LLJ
Weak convergence SE Spain
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Extensive pressure decrease over the Mediterranean
Cyclogenesis / Enhancement of easterlies and convergence
Southward shift of the rainfall activity
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SLP / 925 hPa WIND FIELD / PRECIPITATION
7286
Pressure decrease limited to the east of the Balearics
Northerly winds and offshore outflows over eastern Spain
General rainfall suppression
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*$1',$
Mesolow over eastern Spain
Intense mesoscale cyclonic circulation / strong convergence
Focusing of rainfall over central Valencia
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7286
Mesolow over southeastern Spain
Intense vortex / strong convergence line
Substantial rainfall enhancement (elongated structure)
*$1',$
Complex pattern in space and time
Southward shift of the rainfall activity
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Complex pattern in space and time
General rainfall suppression over land
16
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6\QRSWLFVFDOHVLPLODULWLHVEXWDOVRXQLTXHFKDUDFWHULVWLFV
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- 7RXV: Relatively strong dynamic forcing and baroclinicity
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- *DQGLD: Stagnancy of the large-scale pattern
- 7RXV: Westward-moving disturbance
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+RZ can the internal features of the flow dynamics (jet streaks, troughs, fronts, etc...) present
in the initial conditions be VZLWFKHGRQRII without compromising the delicate 3-D dynamical
balances that govern both the model and actual meteorological fields """
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18
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