THE INCREDIBLE SHRINKING
SEA ICE
David Barber, Louis Fortier, and Michael Byers
In the disaster blockbuster, “The Day After Tomorrow,” the shrinking of polar ice
caused by climate change unleashes an extreme weather Armaggedon which,
among other things, sees the Statue of Liberty engulfed by a tidal wave. The
predictions offered here by David Barber, Louis Fortier and Michael Byers are less
cataclysmic but equally compelling. In relaying the scientific evidence and outlining
the ecological, economic and political impacts of polar climate change, Barber,
Fortier and Byers present a chilling case for heading off doomsday.
Dans The Day After Tomorrow, la fonte de la calotte glaciaire provoque un raz-demarée sans précédent qui engloutit notamment la statue de la liberté. Certes moins
catastrophiques, les prédictions que font ici David Barber, Louis Fortier et Michael
Byers n’en donnent pas moins froid dans le dos. S’appuyant sur des observations
scientifiques, ils inventorient les répercussions écologiques, économiques et
politiques des changements du climat polaire et brossent de ses conséquences un
tableau franchement alarmant.
F
or centuries, significant resources have been expended in search of the Northwest Passage, or as Pierre
Berton once called it; the “Arctic Grail.” Franklin,
Davis, Ray, Baffin, Amendment, Blot, Monk, and Perry are
just a few of the names that have gone down in history for
their quest for the shortest route from Europe to Asia. It was
sea ice that foiled the best laid routes and provided the suspense and intrigue we are all now familiar with. The waxing
and waning of sea ice movement in the northern hemisphere has long created seasons when a ship could sail easily through Baffin Bay, while in other years “rivers” of ice
flushed down from the Lincoln Sea towards the Labrador
coast. The high variability experienced by these explorers
was the norm of the day.
However, things do appear to be changing, and these
trends are cause for concern. In recent years, scientists,
through the media, have been informing the public about
developments concerning sea ice in our northern hemisphere. Articles such as “As Polar Ice Turns to Water, Dreams
of Treasure Abound” (the New York Times) recall the economic forces at play several centuries ago, while making a
scientifically based prediction that the Arctic ocean may
become the next, and likely one of the last, of our great
oceans to exploit, conserve and protect.
S
ea ice occurs at both poles as a result of large scale variations in solar insolation (incoming solar radiation or
the sun’s rays) and changes in oceanic and atmospheric cir-
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culation driven by the seasonal global balance in net energy. An oscillating planetary energy balance is established
with net positive surplus at the equator and net loss at the
poles. Seasonal modulation of this general pattern is driven
by the fact that the planet’s axis of rotation is 23.4° offset
from the perpendicular. This means that solar insolation is
much larger at the equator than at the poles, and this sets
up (at least in a first order fashion) the seasons that create
polar sea ice. It also results in an overall planetary energy
balance with opposing signs at each pole, which helps to
establish a planetary-wide circulation of heat from the equator poleward and vice-versa.
In the Arctic, sea ice forms annually throughout most of
the area north of the Arctic Circle whenever the ocean dips
below -1.8°C. Maximum volume of ice occurs around the
end of March, with an area of about 14 million km2.
Perennial ice occurs throughout the Canada and Arctic
basins in the summer, and annual ice grows over the shallow continental shelves northward to meet the southern
advance of the perennial pack. Reduction in this maximal
extent occurs throughout the summer season until a minimum of about 7 million km2 is reached, sometime around
the end of September.
Climate models converge on a single feature: they predict the first and strongest signals of global-scale climate
change to occur in the high latitudes of our planet. These
models predict a reduction in sea ice extent over the next
several decades, resulting in a seasonally ice-free Arctic as
The incredible shrinking sea ice
ice will be less of a problem for
marine vessel transport if the current
trends continue.
Many researchers believe that the
Northeast Passage will be one of the
first to open, since the remnant pack
tends to shift toward North America
under current forcing. Two of us were
in fact aboard a Russian ice-breaker in
September 2005, and there was no ice
of any significance to shipping along
nurse their pups in dens built inside
sea-ice ridges. Juvenile Arctic cod,
which live in the anfractuosities of the
pack where they are protected from
their predators and find abundant crustacean prey, synthesize antifreeze proteins that prevent their blood from
freezing at the sub-zero temperatures
prevailing in the ice. Key Arctic copepods have developed sophisticated
reproduction strategies to match the
hatching of their eggs with
Climate models converge on a single feature: they predict the the short season of production of ice algae. In addition
first and strongest signals of global-scale climate change to
to microalgae, bacteria
occur in the high latitudes of our planet. These models
dwell in the high-salinity
predict a reduction in sea ice extent over the next several
brine channels among the
sea-ice matrix and are active
decades, resulting in a seasonally ice-free Arctic as early as
2050. Observational studies, based on the passive microwave at temperatures as low as
-22 C. Life in the Arctic seas
satellite record, confirm these predictions for both rates of
begins in mid-spring, when
reduction and, to a certain extent, geographic location.
the snow covers become
sufficiently thin to allow
the entire route of the Northeast
enough sunlight to reach the base of
record being that of 2005. It is imporPassage (between Norway and Alaska).
the ice. The light reaching the ice-water
tant to note that this reduction repreThe situation with multiyear sea
interface triggers the growth of icesents a switch from perennial ice (i.e.,
ice in the Northwest Passage is somedwelling microalgae. As the ice cover
multiyear ice) to annual ice (i.e., firstwhat more complex. Historically, mulbreaks up in early summer, sunlight
year ice). The issue of a reduction in ice
tiyear ice has moved into the
penetrates deeper into the ocean and
thickness (volume), although more
archipelago through the channels on
free-floating microalgae known as phydifficult to measure, also suggests an
the western side of the archipelago
toplankton start blooming. Minute
overall reduction. Recent results pro(e.g., Amundsen Gulf, McClure Strait
crustaceans called copepods (from 0.2
vide compelling evidence for an overand small channels on the western
to 2 cm long) emerge from hibernation
all northern hemisphere volume
edge of the QEIs). When the multiyear
at depth to graze on the ice algae and
decrease of 32 percent, most of which
pack regularly extended southwards to
phytoplankton. The copepods are
resulted from a reduction in thickness
the Tuktoyuktuk Peninsula we could
preyed upon by the ubiquitous Arctic
of ice over 2 m (i.e., multiyear). This
find multiyear sea ice in Amundsen
cod, a small (25-30 cm) sluggish cousin
coincided with an increase in the
Gulf. In recent years, the pack ice edge
of the Atlantic cod that in turn is the
extent of open water and young ice of
has retreated north, and it now lies at
main staple of seals, belugas, narwhals
between 20 and 30 percent.
the northern limit of McClure Strait.
and many species of sea birds. At the
Minimum sea ice concentration
Once this edge retreats beyond the
top of the food chain, the polar bear
(SIC) is defined as 15 percent concenentrance way to McClure Strait we can
preys almost exclusively on the ring
tration, and is computed for the end of
expect a dramatic reduction in the
seal, whereas man hunts any large prey,
September of each year using the
amount of multiyear sea ice moving
including the polar bear. The fat
SMMR and SSM/I passive microwave
into the Northwest Passage. Given the
reserves accumulated in summer by the
record (National Snow and Ice Data
current trajectory, this will likely hapsmall herbivore copepods sustain them
Centre [NSIDC]).
pen in the next decade.
during the long winter months and
The timing of the reduction in
sustain their predators throughout the
the perennial ice cover is important,
annual cycle. As their icy habitat
both from biophysical and sociofter a million years of evolution,
shrinks and thins, these highly specialeconomic perspectives. The barriers
Arctic species present unique feaized organisms face the double threat
to navigation have historically been
tures and life cycles that reflect adaptaof displacement by less specialized temcaused by multiyear sea ice, because it
tion to life on, in and under sea ice.
perate species, and extinction. At the
is thicker and harder than first-year
The polar bear is impressively suited to
root of the food chain, ice algae are
sea ice. The decrease in the summer
detect and kill seals in the whiteness of
more abundant, more productive and
minimum means that multiyear sea
the pack ice. Seals give birth to and
early as 2050. Observational studies,
based on the passive microwave satellite record, confirm these predictions
for both rates of reduction and, to a
certain extent, geographic location.
We lose, on average, about 74,000
km2 of sea ice extent each year, and we
have lost about 2,000,000 km2 since
1979. The record of minimums has
become rather common in the instrumental record, with the minimum on
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67
David Barber, Louis Fortier and Michael Byers
more diversified in the thin, soft and
porous annual ice than in the thick,
hard and dense multiyear ice. Thus, in
the short term, the replacement of
multi year ice by first-year ice and a
general thinning of the snow and ice
covers could lead to higher micro algal
production. In the longer term, the
more productive phytoplankton will
replace the ice algae as the ice season
shortens and the Arctic Ocean becomes
ice-free in summer. Fewer ice algae and
a longer phytoplankton bloom will
mean an overall more productive
peripheral Arctic Ocean.
immigrated fish will be slow and the
stocks will be highly vulnerable to
over fishing. The richer, biologically
more productive surface waters of an
ice-free Artic Ocean will contribute to
the sequestration of atmospheric carbon, thus mopping up some of the
greenhouse gases emitted by human
industry. On the other hand, sea-ice
reflects 90 percent of the sun’s radiation into space, compared to less than
30 percent for open waters. Therefore,
an ice-free Arctic Ocean will absorb
much more heat from the sun, accel-
E
nvironmentalists will rightly perceive it as a tragic loss to the global ecosystem. Neo-liberals already see
it as a potential Klondike. In any case,
there is no doubt that the unregulated
exploitation of the new or newly
accessible resources of the Arctic will
end in catastrophe, as it has in other
oceans. Hence the importance of
Canada strongly asserting its Arctic
sovereignty and its authority to control and manage the exploitation of
the resources of its Arctic shelf, including the straits of the Canadian
Archipelago. In addition to
Therefore, an ice-free Arctic Ocean fisheries, changing ice condiowever, a shift in micro
will absorb much more heat from tions in the Northwest Passage
provide a sea route
algal production toward an
the sun, accelerating the warming could
between Asia and Europe that
earlier and longer phytoplankton bloom will also spell the of the Northern Hemisphere, and all is 7,000 kilometres shorter
replacement of Arctic copepods preliminary calculations indicate that than the route through the
Panama Canal. The passage
by Atlantic cousins that are
the increase in the radiative heat
also accommodate superalready becoming common in
balance of the Arctic will far exceed could
tankers and container ships
Arctic seas. Coupled with a
any reduction of the greenhouse
that are too large for the canal.
reduction in sea ice habitat and a
effect. The on-going reduction of
Some Japanese and American
warming of the ocean surface
layer, the “atlantification” of the
sea ice presages a biologically more companies are already building
vessels. But,
plankton will have a tremendous
productive and more diverse Arctic ice-strengthened
any shipping involves the risk
impact on the capacity of the
Arctic cod to resist displacement Ocean that will, however, differ little of accidents, particularly oil
from the northernmost reaches of spills, and authority to reguby temperate fishes. Such a dislate foreign vessels in the pasplacement is already observed in
the Atlantic. There is no common
could soon be lost, since
northern Hudson Bay, where a
scale against which to compare the sage
any foreign ship that transits
shift in the diet of seabirds from
loss of biodiversity and the gain in without seeking permission
nearly pure Arctic cod in the
biological productivity that will
undermines Canada’s sover1980s to a 50-50 mixture of cod
and capelin nowadays has been
result from the “atlantification” of eignty claim.
The history of Canada’s
attributed to the lengthening of
the Arctic Ocean.
claim to the Northwest Passage
the ice-free season. Less ice habierating the warming of the Northern
is fraught with confusion and indecitat and fewer Arctic cod will also affect
Hemisphere, and all preliminary calsion. Initially, it seemed that title over
the ring seal, potentially bringing about
culations indicate that the increase in
the waterway did not matter, because
its replacement by more coastal species
the radiative heat balance of the
of the nearly impenetrable ice. Still, a
such as the harbour seal, with devastatArctic will far exceed any reduction of
claim to the water was at least implicit
ing consequences for the polar bear and
the greenhouse effect. The ongoing
in an assertion, first made in the late
the traditional hunting activities of the
reduction of sea ice presages a biolog19th century, that Canada owned
Inuit.
ically more productive and more
Given the observed rate of the
everything between the 60th and 141st
diverse Arctic Ocean that will, howevnorthward progression of temperate
meridians of longitude all the way to
er, differ little from the northernmost
fish in response to the warming of the
the North Pole. But, apart from the
reaches of the Atlantic. There is no
Atlantic
Ocean,
new
fisheries
Soviet Union, which attempted a simicommon scale against which to comresources could develop rapidly over
lar claim, other countries rejected the
pare the loss of biodiversity and the
the next century in an ice-free Arctic
sector theory.
gain in biological productivity that
Ocean. However, given the low temIn 1969, an American oil company
will result from the “atlantification”
peratures that will always prevail in
sent an ice-strengthened tanker, the SS
of the Arctic Ocean.
polar waters, the growth of newly
Manhattan, on a test voyage through the
H
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DÉCEMBRE 2005 - JANVIER 2006
The incredible shrinking sea ice
Is the polar ice cap melting? It certainly is shrinking, with more open water and serious implications for the Inuit way of life,
for the food chain from top to bottom, for the environment and Canada's sovereignty.
passage. The company, which was cooperating closely with the US government, made a point of not seeking
permission from Canada. Ottawa made a
point of granting permission, and even
sent an icebreaker to assist, and subsequently argued that the unsolicited permission prevented the voyage from
undermining its claim. A more convincing defence of sovereignty came from an
unexpected source. As the SS Manhattan
ploughed through the ice near Resolute
Bay, two Inuit hunters drove their
dogsleds into its path. The vessel ground
to a halt, until the hunters — having
made their point — moved aside.
The following year, Parliament
adopted the Arctic Waters Pollution
Prevention Act, imposing stringent
safety and environmental require-
ments on all shipping within 100
nautical miles of the Arctic coast.
The claimed right to pollution prevention jurisdiction was contrary to
international law, which at the time
did not recognize coastal state rights
beyond the territorial sea. But it was
subsequently made legal by the 1982
United Nations Convention on the
Law of the Sea, which allows coastal
states to impose laws against maritime pollution out to 200 nautical
miles when virtually year-round ice
creates exceptional navigational hazards. A second piece of legislation
extended the territorial sea from 3 to
12 nautical miles. This move was less
controversial, since 60 other countries had made similar claims. Its
immediate relevance lay in the fact
that the passage, at its narrowest
points, is less than 24 nautical miles
across. As the Canadian government
explained, the overlapping territorial
seas meant that foreign vessels making the passage could be subject to
the full range of its domestic laws. At
the same time, Canada began arguing that the straits and channels
between the islands were “historic
internal waters.”
This argument rested on the fact
that most of the archipelago had been
mapped by British explorers prior to the
transfer of title, and few nonconsensual transits had occurred.
Canada also pointed out that the Inuit
— who are Canadian citizens — had
travelled and lived on the ice for millennia. There was, however, some conPOLICY OPTIONS
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69
David Barber, Louis Fortier and Michael Byers
know the land and ice and provide an
effective — if slow-moving — searchand-rescue capability, yet their abilities
are dwarfed by the expanse in which
they operate: Canada is the world’s
second largest country, and more than
40 percent of it is Arctic.
In practice, neither fisheries laws
nor the Arctic Waters Pollution Prevention
Act can be applied. And as
the ice disappears, Canada’s
In practice, neither fisheries laws nor the Arctic Waters
sovereignty claim is vulneraPollution Prevention Act can be applied. And as the ice
ble to more foreign vessels,
disappears, Canada’s sovereignty claim is vulnerable to more
including submarines, using
the Northwest Passage withforeign vessels, including submarines, using the Northwest
Passage without seeking permission — as they might wish to out seeking permission — as
they might wish to do in
do in order to evade Canada’s environmental laws.
order to evade Canada’s
environmental laws.
Prime Minister Paul Martin
Claims Agreement, whereby the
two expanses of high seas, they are
declared in November 2004 that soverCanadian government and the Inuit
open to foreign shipping with almost
eignty “is an issue which is becoming
affirmed that “Canada’s sovereignty
no restrictions. More than commercial
even more important, given climate
over the waters of the arctic archipelago
shipping was at issue. During the Cold
change and the opening of the
is supported by Inuit use and occupanWar, the United States was concerned
Northwest Passage to transportation,
cy.” The historic consolidation arguto maintain open access for its Navy,
and the environmental problems that
ment is also supported by several
especially its submarines. Under the law
may flow from that.” Some steps are
judgments of the International Court of
of the sea, submarines may pass
now being taken. Auroras are being
Justice. However, Canada’s overall
through an international strait without
equipped with infra-red sensors, and
claim is weakened by the fact that it
surfacing or otherwise alerting the adjaunmanned aerial vehicles are being
lacks enforcement capability. Despite
cent coastal state or states, something
acquired to provide long-range surveilhaving the world’s longest coastline,
not permitted in territorial waters.
lance at lower cost. As of 2006,
much of it ice-covered most of the time,
In 1985, the US Coastguard iceRadarsat-2, a federally funded remote
Canada has never possessed an icebreaker Polar Sea sailed through the passensing satellite will provide up-tobreaker capable of operating in the
sage, again without seeking permission.
date, high resolution imaging on
Arctic year-round. In 1985, the
Ottawa once again made a point of grantdemand — giving Canada the ability
Canadian government announced that
ing permission; it even asked to place sevto track surface vessels from space. Yet
it would build a powerful all-season iceeral “observers” on board. Remarkably,
more needs to be done.
breaker. But fiscal restraint quickly
Washington acceded to the request,
Canada offers a registration service
became a greater priority than soverstrengthening Canada’s argument that
to all ships entering its northern waters.
eignty, and the contract was cancelled.
the transit was consensual, and even
But the service has always been volunCanada’s does have a fleet of
promised to provide advance notice of
tary. Making registration in the Arctic
Aurora patrol aircraft which were are
any future transits by Coastguard vessels.
mandatory would bolster sovereignty.
now used mostly for fisheries protecYet it still made a point of publicly disThe Department of National
tion. But only one or two flights per
puting the sovereignty claim. Following
Defence is deliberating whether to
year are devoted to “sovereignty asserthe voyage of the Polar Sea, Canada again
install high-frequency surface-wave
tion.” The Canadian Airborne
modified its legal position. Central to the
radar at the entrances to the passage.
Regiment was once able to deploy
new position was the drawing of straight
The time for deliberation is over. The
1,000 soldiers on short notice anybaselines linking the outer headlands of
information obtained would be useful
where in Canada, but it was disbanded
the archipelago.
to the Canadian Forces and Coastguard
after paratroopers tortured and killed a
and the presence of the installations
Somali
teenager.
Canada’s
sovereignty
s the result of a decision by the
would strengthen Canada’s legal posiclaim is defended primarily by the
International Court of Justice in a
tion. At least two all-season Arctic iceCanadian Rangers: 1,600 part-time
dispute between Britain and Norway,
breakers are needed — one each for the
volunteers who live in 58 hamlets scatstrait baselines had become a legally
eastern and western Arctic.
tered across the North. The Rangers
accepted means for determining the
tradiction between the territorial sea
and historic internal waters arguments,
since internal waters are by definition
not territorial sea. The confusion gave
strength to the US position, which
holds that the passage is an “international strait.” International straits are
narrower in breadth than the adjoining
territorial seas but, because they join
A
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OPTIONS POLITIQUES
DÉCEMBRE 2005 - JANVIER 2006
extent of coastal state jurisdiction along
fragmented coastlines. Canada invoked
its prior claim of historic internal waters
in support of its new baselines, arguing
that its title to the waters within the
baselines — which by definition are
internal waters — was consolidated by
historic usage. The argument was reinforced in 1993 by the Nunavut Land
The incredible shrinking sea ice
One or more of these vessels could
be outfitted to conduct the types of science currently being done aboard the
NGCC Amundsen. Several helicopters
should be based near the northwest
passage to provide search-and-rescue
and ensure that suspicious vessels are
boarded and inspected.
Most importantly, it is time to
persuade Washington to change its
outdated position. Today, the United
States is more concerned about terrorists finding a back door to North
America, or rogue states using the
oceans to transport weapons of mass
destruction, than it is about foreign
submarines. In the Arctic, these new
threats could just as easily be handled by a strengthened Canadian
Coastguard and Navy, whose abilities would be enhanced if Canada’s
domestic laws could fully be applied.
It does not serve the interests of
either country to have foreign vessels shielded from those laws, and
most of international law, by maintaining that the passage is an international strait.
Given what we know about feedbacks in the Arctic system, it is
increasingly likely that sea ice reduction will not be reversed. The minimum we reached in 2005 has never
before been seen in any of our instrumental records and the projection of
a seasonally ice free Arctic by about
2050 has not been seen on planet
Earth for at least a million years. As a
polar country, Canada has a particular
interest and responsibility to protect
the fragile Arctic and its indigenous
peoples. But that should not distract
from the more urgent policy imperative: reduce greenhouse gas emissions
so as to slow and eventually halt climate change, before it is too late. The
Arctic is our canary in the coal mine.
David Barber is associate dean
(research); Clayton H. Riddell Faculty of
Environment, Earth, and Resources;
Canada Research Chair in Arctic System
Science; and director, Centre for Earth
Observation Science, University of
Manitoba. Louis Fortier is a professor of
biology and Canada Research Chair on
the Response of Marine Arctic
Ecosystems to Climate Change,
ArcticNet, Department of Biology,
Université Laval. Michael Byers is
Canada Research Chair in Global
Politics and International Law,
University of British Columbia. This
paper is a contribution of ArcticNet, a
new network of centres of excellence
(www.arcticnet-ulaval.ca/)
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