Marine Geology 220 (2005) 131 – 151 www.elsevier.com/locate/margeo Channelled erosion through a marine dump site of dredge spoils at the mouth of the Puyallup River, Washington State, USA Neil C. Mitchell * School of Earth, Ocean and Planetary Sciences, Cardiff University, Main Building, Park Place Cardiff CF10 3YE, Wales, UK Received 17 November 2004; received in revised form 4 June 2005; accepted 16 June 2005 Abstract Channels are relatively common on river-mouth deltas, but the process by which they arise from river sediment discharge is unclear because they can potentially be explained either by negatively buoyant (hyperpycnal) flows produced directly from the river outflow or by flows generated by repeated failure and mobilisation of sediment rapidly deposited at the delta front. Channels eroded through a dump site of dredge spoils are described here from multibeam and older sonar data collected in Commencement Bay, at the mouth of the Puyallup River. Shallow channels on the seaward upper surface of the dump site, away from any flows that could have been produced by delta front failures, suggest that at least some hyperpycnal flows were produced directly from the positively buoyant river outflow up to 200 m from the edge of the river mouth platform. The form of channel bed erosion is revealed by the longitudinal shape of the main eroded channel compared with the adjacent dump site profile. It suggests that the channel evolved by its steep front retreating, rather than by simple vertical entrenchment or diffusive-like evolution of the profile, a geometry interpreted as evidence that repeated failure of the bed occurred in response to shear stress imposed by bottom-travelling flows. Model calculations based on shear strengths back-calculated from the geometry of channel wall failures suggest that, if the main channel were eroded solely by hyperpycnal flows, their generation was remarkably efficient in order to create flows vigorous enough to cause channel bed failure. Besides the sediment concentration and discharge characteristics that have been considered to dictate the ability of rivers to produce hyperpycnal flows, it is suggested that the timing of floods with respect to the tidal cycle should also be important because extreme low tides may be needed to ensure that coarse sediment is transferred vigorously to the edge of river mouth platforms. D 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. Keywords: hyperpycnal flows; underflows; multibeam sonar; slope stability; channel erosion 1. Introduction * Tel.: +44 29 2087 5051; fax: +44 29 2087 4326. E-mail address: [email protected]. 0025-3227/$ - see front matter D 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. doi:10.1016/j.margeo.2005.06.032 Channels have often been described eroded into the surfaces of small coastal submarine fans near river mouths or in mine tailing deposits (Boe et al., 2004; Bornhold and Prior, 1990; Ferentinos et al., 1988; 132 N.C. Mitchell / Marine Geology 220 (2005) 131–151 Hay, 1987; Mosher and Hamilton, 1998; Normark and Dickson, 1976; Prior and Bornhold, 1989; Prior and Bornhold, 1990; Prior et al., 1981a,b; Syvitski et al., 1987; Syvitski and Farrow, 1983). For example, the apices of fjord-head and -side deltas commonly contain a down-slope-oriented shallow swale and ridge topography in gravel and coarse sands which leads down-slope into channels with well-defined walls in the middle fan (Bornhold and Prior, 1990; Prior and Bornhold, 1989, 1990; Prior et al., 1981a,b). Flutes and truncation of fan stratigraphy observed from submersible (Bornhold and Prior, 1990; Prior and Bornhold, 1989, 1990) demonstrate that the channels were created by erosion rather than by inhibited deposition relative to interfluves. Levees and channel-floor bedforms suggest that they are commonly traversed by turbidity currents at least in the lower fan (Syvitski et al., 1987). The precise origins of the erosive flows and their relationships to their adjacent rivers have been unclear, however. Some channels lead up-slope to embayments in the upper delta (Prior et al., 1981a,b; Syvitski and Farrow, 1983) where arcuate faults and blocks suggest that erosive flows originated by slope failure and disintegration of the failed material (Prior et al., 1981a,b). Failure could also result from stresses caused by surface waves or loading associated with flushing of river mouth bar sands onto the upper delta slope during floods, potentially involving pore-water over-pressure effects if the deltas contain clay-rich sediments deposited during quiescent periods (Prior et al., 1981a). Alternatively, channels may be eroded more directly from river outflow during floods if the density of parts of the outflow can overcome seawater density to produce hyperpycnal flows or if flow inertia can carry a slurry of boulders, gravels and sands onto the upper fan (Prior and Bornhold, 1990). Coarsegrained deposits representing river-mouth sand bars produced by flood-generated hyper-concentrated flows have been described by Mutti et al. (1996) based on outcrop studies. The confusion is also illustrated by studies of submarine canyons heading near river mouths. Some potentially different origins for sedimentary flows in the Mediterranean Var Canyon are discussed by Mulder et al. (1998a) who suggested that rapid deposition and failure of river delta front sands contributes significantly to sedimentary flows, as well as hyperpycnal flows. Recordings of turbidity currents in some channels have been found to be poorly correlated with river discharge, favouring storms or other causes of flow initiation (Bornhold et al., 1994; Puig et al., 2004, 2003). On the other hand, turbidity currents recorded in Monterey Canyon were found to contain low salinity water and did correlate with discharge of the adjacent Salinas River (Johnson et al., 2001). Cores recovered from Capbreton Canyon lying near the Adour River, France apparently recorded a storm-generated turbidite rather than a hyperpycnal flow (Mulder et al., 2004). Sediment cores from Sepik Canyon, which penetrates into the Sepik River valley, Papua New Guinea, show many finegrained turbidites (Walsh and Nittrouer, 2003) but it is unclear if they originated directly from river outflow or from failure of deposits. A difficulty in addressing this problem is that there is unfortunately a lack of observations of processes occurring in the critical region where flood waters pass from the river mouth and cross the delta front. The different origins of the erosive flows are usually difficult to distinguish from morphology because sonar data from around river mouths (e.g., Klaucke and Cochonat, 1999) can show submarine channels heading near the river mouth but allow for either origin. Puyallup River mouth data (Gardner et al., 2001b) collected by the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and the US Geological Survey (USGS) provide an unusual geometry that is shown in this paper partially to address this question as the data show evidence for channelled erosion on the outer slope of the dump site in areas where they cannot have been generated by delta front failure. The simplest hyperpycnal flows are produced when the suspended sediment load of a river causes its density to be greater than that of seawater (Bates, 1953), illustrated by an Icelandic jökulhaup shown in Mulder et al. (2003) which plunged abruptly at the coastline leaving only a minor sea surface plume. A study of river suspended sediment–discharge relationships ("rating curves") suggested that hyperpycnal behaviour is most likely for rivers draining mountainous areas with small catchment areas (Mulder and Syvitski, 1995), such as the Puyallup River of Washington State (Fig. 1). Apparently, hyperpycnal flow can also occur when the river suspended load is less than the 42 kg/m3 required for bulk negative 133 N.C. Mitchell / Marine Geology 220 (2005) 131–151 48˚ 0N Puget Sound 1965 Seattle-Tacoma 47˚ 40N Commencement Bay (Fig. 2) 47˚ 20N Seismic magnitude scale 2001 Nisqually 4 Puyallup gauge station 47˚ 0N 5 6 Mount Rainier 46˚ 40N 46˚ 20N 123˚ 0W 122˚ 0W 121˚ 0W Fig. 1. Location of the Commencement Bay area of Washington State, USA. Solid circle marks the Puyallup River gauging station. Solid star symbol locates Mt Rainier. The dashed outlined area around Commencement Bay locates the data in Fig. 2. The open box symbols represent epicentres of earthquakes of magnitude 4.0 and greater for the period 1974 to present from the Advanced National Seismic System (http:// www.anss.org). The 1965 Seattle–Tacoma earthquake epicentre (Ichinose et al., 2004) is also shown. Scale and globe are placed over areas with no data. buoyancy in seawater because, for example, data from bottom moored instruments in the Monterey Canyon recorded hyperpycnal flows more frequently than expected from the rating curve for the Salinas River (Johnson et al., 2001). The specific processes involved during this behaviour have rarely been observed in the field. Suspended sediment concentration measurements in the outflow of the Sepik River, Papua New Guinea (Kineke and Sternberg, 2000; Kineke et al., 2000) and the outflow of the Yellow River (Wright et al., 1988) showed them to have separated into buoyant (hypopycnal) surface plumes and hyperpycnal currents, but data on the region of flow separation are generally lacking. Laboratory experiments (Hoyal et al., 1999; Maxworthy, 1999; Parsons et al., 2001) suggest that the separation into bottom and surface plumes can occur by particles settling from the hypopycnal plume to form descending denser fingers within the underlying salt water which coalesce to create the hyperpycnal current. This process has been suggested to reduce the critical river sediment concentration needed to initiate hyperpycnal flow to 5 kg/m3 (Mulder et al., 2003) or even b 1 kg/m3 (Parsons et al., 2001, in press). As freshwater signals have been recorded in hyperpycnal currents (Johnson et al., 2001; Kineke et al., 2000), the process presumably can also involve water from the over-riding plume becoming entrained in the negatively buoyant fluid. Further experimental results of McLeod et al. (1999) illustrate that stratification of the flow entering seawater is likely to be important, as hyperpycnal flows form from the particle-rich basal layer. Kineke et al. (2000) also suggested that the mixing interface between fresh and salt water can 134 N.C. Mitchell / Marine Geology 220 (2005) 131–151 promote flocculation of clay-grade particles and hence more rapid settling of the larger aggregated particles produced. Mulder et al. (1998b) and Skene et al. (1997) modelled bed erosion by a hyperpycnal flow in the Saguenay Fjord, Canada assuming that the eroded material was cohesive with a linear shear strength depth profile. Erosion depth was varied with u 2 / a, where ’u’ is flow velocity and ’a’ is the rate of shear strength variation with depth, as normally compacting cohesive sediments typically have increasing shear strength with burial depth (Skempton, 1970). The model illustrates that erosion by hyperpycnal flows is likely to be limited to the depth to which the shear stress due to the flow and the sediment shear strength are balanced if erosion occurs by bed shear failure, as suggested later in this paper. Studying the form of erosion in specific cases, such as the Puyallup channels, may be helpful in understanding how turbidity currents erode channels more generally. Multibeam sonar data of deep submarine channels have revealed the presence of knickpoints (locally steep reaches or inflections in gradient). Many of these on steep continental slopes originate from variations in lithological competence or tectonics (Bourillet et al., 2003; Farre and Ryan, 1985; Huyghe et al., 2004; McHugh et al., 1993; Mitchell, 2004, 2005; Ramsey et al., 2003), but the results presented here may be relevant to canyons of the lower slope where sediment dams produced by canyon wall failures are evacuated from channels. Knickpoints in high resolution multibeam data of the Monterey Canyon, for example, do not appear to be as prominent or as common as would be expected from the volumes of observed canyon wall slope failures if they were to fill the canyon floor (Greene et al., 2002). The question then arises as to whether this is because failed wall material disintegrates rapidly to form mobile debris flows and turbidity currents, which travel to the lower fan, or whether dams of the material are eroded by subsequent flows travelling down-canyon. If the latter, the form of erosion is important to whether knickpoints produced by canyon-blocking material would be preserved or smoothed out by successive down-canyon flows, analogous to the behaviour of moderately steep knickpoints in bedrock channels which are predicted to be advective or diffusive depending on the bed erosion law operating (Whipple and Tucker, 2002). This paper primarily concerns morphological observations from high-resolution multibeam echosounder data collected in 2001 on the NOAA vessel Rainier and survey launches (Gardner et al., 2001b). Those data and evolution of the southern part of Commencement Bay in legacy soundings are described first, before alternative origins for channels imaged by the data are discussed. Model calculations for the evolution of the channel floor and the discharge/sediment concentration are also presented. They suggest that, if the channels were carved primarily by hyperpycnal flows, flow generation may have been remarkably efficient as a significant shear stress imposed by hyperpycnal or other flows on the channel bed appears to be necessary to explain its inferred retrogressive evolution. The influence of tidal bay water level on river water outflow velocity is also discussed because it may be important for mobilising coarser grained sediment across the river mouth platform and hence for initiating strongly erosive hyperpycnal flows. 2. Background to the area and river sediment Commencement Bay and its surrounding area are shown in Figs. 1 and 2. The new multibeam data cover the Puyallup River delta front (Dragovich et al., 1994) where the river empties into the bay. The Puyallup River and its tributaries drain the west slopes of Mount Rainier (star symbol in Fig. 1), originating from glaciers in the upper parts of the mountain. A geological map (Fiske et al., 1963) shows that the upper reaches of the river traverse basaltic andesite flows and volcanic epiclastic and pyroclastic deposits. Large debris flows initiated by glacial outbursts, storms and subglacial eruptions have carried poorly sorted material down to the lower flanks of the volcano, including the lower Puyallup River valley (Dragovich et al., 1994; Swanson et al., 1992). Their deposits contain abundant clays of possible hydrothermal origin (Vallance and Scott, 1997). For 13 km upstream from the river mouth, the Puyallup River is constrained by artificial levees, ensuring rapid outflow during floods and rapid remobilization of seasonally accumulated bed sediments. 135 N.C. Mitchell / Marine Geology 220 (2005) 131–151 weight % per grade 80 60 o 122o 28' c a b C Si Sa Gr d C Si Sa Gr e 122o 27' 122o 26' 122o 25' 122o 24' 40 20 0 80 C Si Sa Gr f 60 40 20 0 80 60 47o 18' C Si Sa Gr g C Si Sa Gr C Si Sa Gr C C Si Sa Gr i h 40 20 0 Si Sa Gr C Si Sa Gr 0 14 47o 17' 47o 17' b 12 0 c 60 80 10 0 a 40 20 f 47o 16' r ive pR llu ya Pu 47o 16' d e g i h 1 km 122o 28' 122o 27' 122o 26' 122o 25' 122o 24' Fig. 2. Map of the 2001 multibeam sonar data collected in Commencement Bay, Washington State (Gardner et al., 2001b). White depth contours are shown every 20 m. Grey background is an image of the city of Tacoma. The figure was produced by scientists of the US Geological Survey (http://walrus.wr.usgs.gov/pacmaps/ps-puy.html). Also shown are sediment sample locations (a–i) which correspond to the grain size histograms shown in the upper left inset (C, Si, Sa and Gr represent clay, silt, sand and gravel grades). The sediment texture data were derived from the Washington Department of Ecology SedQual database and represent samples taken in (a–c) 1999, (d) 2004, (e) 1987, (f) 1991, 1995, 1996, and (g–i) 1984. The dump site was reportedly used for depositing dredge spoils from the adjacent waterways until the mid-1980s (Gardner et al., 2001b). Existence of a mound in the following legacy soundings suggests that dumping began before 1936. Although few sediment samples are available from the dump site itself, erosion of the debris flow deposits as well as other material derived from Mount Rainier suggest that sediment carried by the river likely comprises a poorly sorted mixture of both sands and finer grade material. According to an unpublished report by the company HartCrowser, the river bed materials presently comprise mostly silty sand but with all grades from clay to sand represented. One sample taken by the author at low tide from the outlet of the Puyallup River was found to be a stiff, silty sand. Port of Tacoma staff observed an event in the late 1980s in which wooden pilings breached the surface (S.P. Palmer, pers comm., 2003), which could have resulted from one or more of the slope failures. Hence the dump site material is 136 N.C. Mitchell / Marine Geology 220 (2005) 131–151 UTM distance north (km) most likely a heterogeneous mixture of grain-sizes but also including some man-made objects and the river sediment is also heterogeneous. This view is confirmed by grain size analyses of surface sediment samples taken between 1981 and 2004 which are summarized in the top-left of Fig. 2 (derived from the Washington Department of Ecology SedQual database). As these are surface samples, it is not entirely clear how representative they are of the dump site material but nevertheless they show silty 5237 5236 5237 10 0 5236 5235 5235 1936 1936-1974 5237 5237 -24 -12 0 12 24 m 5236 5236 5235 5235 1974 1974-1996 5237 5237 5236 5236 5235 5235 1996 1996-2001 5237 5236 5237 100 5236 5235 5235 2001 541 1974-2001 542 543 544 541 542 543 544 UTM distance east (km) Fig. 3. (left) Bathymetry maps of southern Commencement Bay, Washington State, derived from data collected by the US National Ocean Service in 1936, 1974, 1996 and 2001. The modern coastline taken from Fig. 2 is shown in each figure. Contour interval is 20 m, with 100 m in bold. Depths are relative to Mean Low Low Water. Coordinates are Universal Transverse Mercator zone 10 distances in km (WGS84 ellipsoid). (right) Depth changes calculated from the bathymetry data. Contour interval is 6 m. N.C. Mitchell / Marine Geology 220 (2005) 131–151 sand on the edge and within the channel of the dump site (locations d and e), sandy silts in more distal areas within the bay (locations a–c) and other sandy silts around the margins of the dump site (locations f–i). For discussion of possible triggering of submarine failures described later, the open boxes in Fig. 1 show the epicentres of all earthquakes in the region of magnitude z 4.0 from 1974 to present derived from the Advanced National Seismic System (http:// www.anss.org), representing the period since the 1974 data (described below) were collected by the National Ocean Service (NOS). The location of a further large (M w 6.7) earthquake, the 1965 Seattle– Tacoma earthquake, is also shown. Modelling by Ichinose et al. (2004) of strong motions caused by the largest earthquake (M w 6.8 Nisqually of 2001) suggest that peak horizontal ground accelerations in Commencement Bay reached around 0.1 g. Their modelling of the 1965 earthquake, however, suggests that ground accelerations may have reached 0.3 g in the bay. Although there is little evidence for bathy- 137 metric changes associated with the 2001 earthquake, slope failure associated with the 1965 earthquake may explained some features observed in the 1974 bathymetry dataset. 3. Bathymetry data origins and processing All the bathymetry data in Fig. 3 were collected by the NOS. Those for 1936–1996 were provided by the hydrographic survey database of the National Geophysical Data Center and those for 2001 were provided by the USGS (Gardner et al., 2001a). The original data were collected by lead line (1936), single-beam echosounder (1974 and 1996) and multibeam sonar (2001) with the coverage shown in Fig. 4. Depths were reduced consistently to Mean Low Low Water (MLLW) but horizontal datums differed—the 1936– 1996 data in North American Datum 1927 needed to be translated northwards to coincide with the 2001 data, which were provided in the World Geodetic Fig. 4. Sounding density maps for the bathymetry data shown in Fig. 3. Contours and modern coastline are from Fig. 3. 138 N.C. Mitchell / Marine Geology 220 (2005) 131–151 Fig. 5. Enlarged view of the 2001 multibeam data. The data are contoured every 10 m and coordinates are Universal Transverse Mercator (UTM) distances in km (UTM zone 10 referenced to the WGS84 ellipsoid). System 84 datum. Coordinates in Figs. 3–6 are Universal Transverse Mercator (UTM) zone 10 distances in km. Although the Global Positioning System (GPS) is known to have been used in 1996 and 2001, the navigation technique and accuracy are unfortunately unknown for the earlier surveys. Because of the likely differing resolutions of navigation data, the 1936 and 1974–1996 soundings were first binned at 20 and 10 m, respectively, before interpolating with a minimum surface curvature algorithm (Smith and Wessel, 1990) and contouring (Wessel and Smith, 1991). The maps on the right-hand side of Fig. 3 show elevation changes for the periods marked. 4. Observations of bathymetric evolution Before describing the 2001 morphology, the evolution of the southern Commencement Bay from dumping, river sediment deposits, erosion and landslides is described using Fig. 3 and the close-ups of the river mouth data in Fig. 6. The 1936 lead line soundings clearly delimit the early dump site centred around UTM 542.9 km E, 5235.5 km N, separated from the seaward extension of the river bed by a 200-m-wide depression. The 1974 echo-soundings show this depression largely infilled by the prograding river mouth sediments, which have moved the break in slope a little greater than 100 m northwards. The dump site area grew generally in relief from dumping and from this progradation, leaving the largely positive relief change shown in the 1936–1974 depth difference map (upper-right of Fig. 3). Also revealed in the 1974 data, an early trace of a submarine channel can be seen running northwest from UTM 542.9 km E, 5235.45 km N. The channel is 100 m wide at its southeast end, narrowing to 50 m to the northwest, although it is poorly resolved in these data. The 1996 sounding data reveal a well-defined amphitheatre at the head of the channel centred around UTM 542.8 km E, 5235.5 km N. A second amphitheatre is also clearly resolved on the north side of the dump site around UTM 543 km E, 5235.6 km N. The northern break in slope of the delta top has 139 N.C. Mitchell / Marine Geology 220 (2005) 131–151 50 0 0 UTM distance north (km) 5235.5 1936 0 1996 50 50 5235.5 0 1974 542.5 2001 543.5 542.5 543.0 543.0 543.5 UTM distance east (km) Fig. 6. Closeups of the Puyallup River mouth bathymetry. Contour interval is 2 m, with 10 m contours in bold. Also shown by the dotted lines are the !1 and + 1 m depth contours. Depths are relative to MLLW. The modern coastline is reproduced from Fig. 3. advanced more than 100 m farther northwards, despite a submarine landslide that reportedly occurred in the north slope in 1992 (Gardner et al., 2001b). The shallow bank between the outermost artificial walls of the Puyallup River channel and the delta front has a shallow depression of 1 m depth elongated parallel to the river trend with flanking shallows at the north and west margins of the bank. The 2001 multibeam data reveal a general deepening of the upper channel from 1996 (suggested by the depth changes in Fig. 3 and from the longitudinal sections in Fig. 8). Apart from loss of a small ridge in the main channel amphitheatre at UTM 542.9 km E, 5235.47 km N, other differences around the amphitheatres are largely attributable to differences in data resolution. Surveys of the Puyallup River bed between 1943 and 1951 by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE, 1951) showed that the delta front at the river mouth was prograding by ~20 m/year. Given the narrow ~200 m width of the Puyallup channel, that rate is comparable volumetrically to the long-term progradation rate of the 3-km-wide delta front filling the Puyallup valley, which has averaged 2.3 m/year based on the 13 km advance of the front since a dated mudflow (Osceola) was emplaced at 5.7 ka (Dragovich et al., 1994). Compared with those rates, however, the 100 m extensions of the delta front 1936– 1974 and 1974–1996 seem somewhat modest, implying that some loss of the delta front slope may have occurred during these periods by slope failures, such as the 1992 slope failure reported by Gardner et al. (2001b) and an April 1943 slide that removed part of a river training wall (USACE, 1951). 5. Morphological observations from the 2001 multibeam data The 2001 data (Fig. 5) show a well-defined 100-mwide channel (along section B–BV shown) floored by large sedimentary dunes. In section B–BV, the dunes can be seen with varied spacings of 20–80 m and heights of 3–6 m. In (Figs. 2, 3 and 6), other channels can be seen on the north side of the dump site and one small channel on the south side. Embayments in the upper east wall of the main channel and adjacent slope 140 N.C. Mitchell / Marine Geology 220 (2005) 131–151 farther east mark slope failures (e.g., immediately northeast of UTM 542.8 km E, 5235.5 km N marked by the dashed lines in Fig. 5). Importantly, four shallow channels can be seen radiating to the northwest from the top of the dump site (UTM 542.8 km E, 5235.2 km N) at around 10 m depth. These can be seen as small 1– 3 m deep depressions east of the main channel in Fig. 7 (400–500 m in profiles 5–8 from the bottom). The long-profile of the channel in Fig. 8 reveals a general decline in gradient with distance from the river mouth (gradients are mostly 3–58, with a maximum of 88) and with vertical relief declining from nearly 20 m. This is also emphasized by the crosssections in Fig. 7, which show a moderately flat channel floor with sharp margins. The wall failures occur at 400–500 m in the three lowermost profiles in the figure. Northwest of UTM 542.5 km E, 5235.7 km N (Fig. 5), the channel disappears, possibly a result of the carving sediment flows losing power because of flow spreading and loss of sands from suspension (Akiyama and Stefan, 1988), mixing with bay waters or the decline in bed gradient (Fig. 8). The flows then deposited their loads. From the two white outlined areas in the lower-right map of Fig. 3, the volume eroded from the channel, 2 " 105 m3, was roughly ten times smaller than that deposited, 3 " 106 m3 (probably a minimum value as it was obtained only over the area in Fig. 3 though it may also include deposits not associated with the channelled flows). 6. Interpretations The origin of the dump site channels is interpreted here in terms of some of the processes outlined in the introduction for erosion on fjord delta fronts. Largescale slope failure seems an unlikely origin for the main channel as landslide chutes tend to be more irregular and associated with arcuate headwall faults in the fjord examples (Prior et al., 1981a). The steepest Relative depth (m) A A' 0 50 100 0 100 200 300 Distance (m) 400 500 Fig. 7. Transverse cross-sections showing development of the channel away from the river mouth. (Sections located in Fig. 5). 141 N.C. Mitchell / Marine Geology 220 (2005) 131–151 NW B' Gradient 0 Depth (m) 20 40 0.10 Channel margins N S Average Channel axis 1974 1996 2001 0.15 0.05 Channel gradient SE 0.00 B 60 80 0 200 400 600 800 Distance from B' (m) Fig. 8. Longitudinal profiles of the channel and adjacent margins. The channel axis was sampled along B–BV shown in Fig. 5 from the gridded bathymetry for 1974, 1996 and 2001. The channel margins were sampled from the 2001 bathymetry along the north and south lines parallel to B–BV shown in Fig. 5 (dashed where reconstructed across landslide embayments). Gradient (dotted line) was calculated over a 100 m lengthscale along the channel axis by regressing depth on distance. elevation change occurs to the west of the dump site, rather than parallel to the main channel. Repeated cycles of deposition and smaller-scale slope failure around the upper channel-head amphitheatres may, however, have contributed some erosive flows for the channels’ excavation. Deposition-failure cycles would need to have led to relatively little net change in the upper slope because the edge of the west channel-head amphitheatre, for example, has remained near UTM 543 km E between 1974 and 2001. Settling of sands and silts from the positively buoyant flooding river outflow into underlying seawater as it spread beyond the edge of the shallow river-mouth platform is suggested to have led to hyperpycnal flows, such as by the types of mechanisms described by Parsons et al. (2001). The 20 m descent into the canyon-head amphitheatre floors provided potential energy for descending particle-laden fluid to gain turbulence and retain sand in suspension. Those captured sediment-laden flows then passed down the channels below the amphitheatres. The alignment of the main channel with the river channel implies that the direction of flow was influenced by momentum of the river outflow. The sediments providing negative buoyancy were presumably relatively coarse grained because the loss of erosive channel relief and deposition immediately below the dump site suggests rapid settling and deposition. The shallow channels on the upper northwest smooth surface of the dump site are evidence that negatively buoyant flows continued to be sourced by the overriding positively buoyant flood waters for 200 m from the platform edge. They are difficult to explain by other mechanisms (e.g., wind-driven downwelling would be expected to produce similar channels elsewhere around the bay). The channels are much shallower than the main channel, however, so most erosive flows were generated within 200 m of the platform edge. As seawater was carried away from the delta front area by shear from the overlying flood river outflow and underlying hyperpycnal flows, the laterally open aspects of the two amphitheatres could have allowed seawater to be recharged from the sides. The longitudinal shapes of the channel margins and axis shown in Fig. 8 are different—whereas the channel margins are convex upwards in long-profile, the channel axis is concave upwards. This geometry is interpreted as suggesting that the channel floor evolved by the steep front of the dump site retreating. The fine continuous lines in Fig. 9 (top profile) show a simple kinematic model developed to illustrate such an evolution. The curves were constructed using a simple finite difference calculation in which the channel was represented by a 1-m array of elevation values, starting with the channel margins long-profile as the initial condition. During each 142 N.C. Mitchell / Marine Geology 220 (2005) 131–151 0 E~S 3 20 40 60 Depth (m) 0 E~S 20 2 40 60 0 E~S 20 1 40 60 0 100 200 300 400 500 Distance (m) Fig. 9. Kinematic models for the development of the channel profile. In each model, the channel evolves from an initial state represented by the channel margins profile (upper bold line) by successive removal of layers of sediment according to the rule E~S n (where S is slope and S N 0) where n = 1 to 3 in the three graphs. A small 5-m averaging filter was applied during each iteration to stabilise the solutions. A boundary condition of fixed topography at x = 490 m was applied, representing the loss of channel relief at that location. iteration, the bed elevation was reduced by a small thickness E (m) which was varied with the bed gradient S (m/m) according to E~S 3 (S N 0, S calculated by differentiating the elevations) while the right-hand edge of the model was constrained to have zero erosion based on the observed loss of channel relief. This scheme was not intended to represent any particular theoretical erosion law, but rather to illustrate that erosion was strongly accentuated by steep gradients, a clue that an effect of gravity was involved. An interesting possibility therefore is that erosion was caused by bed failure under the combined stress imposed by the flows and gravity acting on the bed sediments. This idea is pursued in the following sections. A second possibility not pursued, but which cannot be fully ruled out, is that bed erosion occurred by abrasion by bedload particles. Abrasive erosion should also be enhanced on steeper gradients because the kinetic energy of saltating particles impacting the bed is expected to be greater where flows are faster (Hancock et al., 1998; Whipple et al., 2000). However, extreme bedloads can armour the bed, preventing abrasion (Sklar and Dietrich, 2001, 2004), which seems likely in the Puyallup channels as large bedloads are suggested by the dunes revealed in the multibeam data (Fig. 5). 7. Back-calculating dump site geotechnical properties As there are no geotechnical data available for the dump site itself, sediment strengths were back- N.C. Mitchell / Marine Geology 220 (2005) 131–151 calculated from the geometry of the slope failures around the channel wall. Effects of seismic ground shaking were ignored because no sediment was observed at the water surface in the bay during the 28 February 2001 Nisqually earthquake (S. P. Palmer, pers. comm., 2004) and the amphitheatre geometry appears to have changed little between the 1996 and 2001 surveys carried out before and after the earthquake (Fig. 6). The possibility of excess pore pressures, such as those associated with organic matter degradation, cannot be assessed without suitable data, but such effects may also help to explain how the retrogressive channel bed failure occurred. Fig. 10 shows long-profiles taken down the trends of two slope failures (dashed sections L1 and L2 shown in Fig. 5), along with gradients calculated by regressing depth on distance over a length scale of 100 m. These show that the steepest parts of the failed surface have gradients reaching 0.235 (138). The infinite slope approximation (Hampton et al., 1996) was used to estimate bulk strength properties. First, the material was assumed to be perfectly incohesive so that the gradients of the side wall failure (0.235) represent the angle of internal friction l of the sediment, i.e. tanl = 0.235 or l = 138 (where l = internal friction angle). This value is low but not improbable if the material contains 0 SW NE L1 0.2 20 0.1 40 Gradient Depth (m) (a) Depth (m) (b) 0 SW L2 NE 0.2 20 40 Bathymetry Gradient 0.1 Gradient 0.0 0.0 0 100 200 Distance (m) Fig. 10. Longitudinal sections of two landslides (a) L1 and (b) L2 located in Fig. 5. The gradients shown by the dashed lines were calculated by regressing depth on along-profile distance with a lengthscale of 100 m. 143 abundant clays as suspected from the sediment sampling (Fig. 2). Second, the material was assumed to be cohesive. Based on the gradient angles of the wall slope failures (h = 138) and that the failures could have been up to h = 10 m thick if they occurred as single events (Fig. 5), the undrained shear strength can be calculated from S u = qVghsinh. Using a value of 893 kg/m3 for the buoyant density q (from grain density q q = 2650 kg/m3 (quartz) and a typical shallow sand porosity of 44% (Masselink and Hughes, 2003)), the shear strength was estimated to be 21 kPa. 8. Channel bed shear stress required to cause erosion by bed failure For bed shear failure to occur, the combined action of gravity acting on the bed sediments and stresses caused by the hyperpycnal flows must exceed the strength of the bed sediments. A range of scenarios was tested using the above geotechnical properties to show that, whereas individual values may be uncertain, they all indicate that relatively large flow stresses would be required to cause bed failure and hence, if hyperpycnal flows were responsible, they were remarkably vigorous. For the case of noncohesive sand bed, the above value of tanl = 0.235 was used and also an alternative value tanl = 0.65 for typical noncohesive sand, to give a range representing uncertainty. A thickness of the bed failure h = 0.1–1.0 m was assumed, also a broad range conservatively to illustrate uncertainty. Since this calculation addresses the retreat of the steep front of the channel bed, a gradient h = 78 was used in the calculation. The critical bed flow stress needed to cause failure s f was then calculated from s f = qVgh(coshtanl ! sinh), which was obtained by adding flow-imposed stress to the stability equations for an infinite slope (Hampton et al., 1996). From the range of values given, the range of expected flow stresses is s f = 98–4600 Pa. These values are plotted in Fig. 11 by the light grey band. For the case of a cohesive bed, the critical flow stress can similarly be calculated from S u = qVghsinh +s f. Again choosing a range of failure depths h = 0.1–10 m to illustrate uncertainty, the critical flow stress was estimated to be s f = 10–21 144 N.C. Mitchell / Marine Geology 220 (2005) 131–151 Cohesive bed 10 τf (kPa) 1 Noncohesive bed 0.1 0.01 0.001 0 5 10 Flow thickness H (m) Fig. 11. The curve in the figure shows the estimated bed shear stress assuming that a flow equivalent to a quarter of the Puyallup River peak discharge travelled down the dump site channel in contact with the bed (Fig. 5). H is the hyperpycnal flow thickness. Grey bands show the estimated shear stresses required for failure, which were estimated by back-calculating dump site geotechnical properties from the geometry of wall failures. As the bed shear stress only begins to approach the bed shear strength for H b 1 m, the flow is inferred to have been thin and vigorous if a hyperpycnal flow. kPa. These values are plotted in Fig. 11 by the dark grey band. 9. River discharge and sediment load characteristics As with many rivers (Mulder et al., 2003), sediment and water discharge data for the Puyallup River suggest that its outflow mean density probably does not exceed sea water density to become negatively buoyant. Daily mean discharge and suspended sediment concentration data were provided by the USGS for a gauging station at Puyallup located in Fig. 1 (http://waterdata.usgs.gov). The USGS water quality data show that the river water has only 54 mg/l dissolved solids on average so their effect on water density was ignored. The river discharge exceeded 1000 m3/s in November 1986 and February 1996 (Fig. 12). Suspended sediment concentration measurements were made only prior to 1994 and do not include the 1987 flood, so extreme concentrations need to be estimated from historical data. Suspended sediment sample data are plotted against the daily mean discharge for the day of sampling in Fig. 13. From the outlier near 1000 m3/s in Fig. 13, the sediment load may have reached 3 kg/m3 during the floods, somewhat low compared with the minimum 4–5 kg/m3 density excess required for hyperpycnal behaviour (Mulder et al., 2003), though larger than the 1 kg/m3 suggested by Parsons et al. (in press). According to Wren et al. (2000), the bottle sampling techniques typically used by the USGS can underrepresent the heaviest suspended loads which occur within 10 cm of the bed, although the heavier loads are unlikely to be carried with the buoyant plume so the concentration data should nevertheless suit the purpose here. To predict sediment concentration (C), the two lines in Fig. 13 show alternative extrapolations. The solid line shows a regression of log10(C) on log10( Q) for Q N 100 m3/s, which suggests that C could have reached 9 kg/m3 for a discharge of 1000 m3/s. If a graph slope of unity is used, which is consistent with rating curves of similar-sized rivers (Johnson et al., 2001; Syvitski and Morehead, 1999), and constrain the relationship with the data for Q N 300 m3/s (dashed line in Fig. 13), C = 6 kg/m3 is predicted at 1000 m3/s. As the floods occurred during winter months, a small temperature effect could be included to allow for the river waters being colder than Puget Sound water, e.g. 2 kg/m3 for a 10 8C temperature difference and 2.1 " 10! 4 1/ 8C water expansion coefficient (Fischbeck and Fischbeck, 1987). There may also have been a further effect of dilution of Commencement Bay water by the flood waters themselves. The bay has a volume of 1.15 " 109 m3 and the cumulative volume of the flood waters over the 5 days of highest discharge in 1996 was 3 " 108 m3. Given that the NOAA database of salinity values for the bay shows a relatively normal seawater mean value of 29.7x, dilution during floods could have reduced the density difference between river and bay waters by 30% if there was little exchange between the bay and the broader Puget Sound (an extreme possibility as the bay is quite open to Puget Sound). The combination of all the above effects suggests that, at maximum, the density anomaly of the river waters could have been reduced to within 10 kg/m3 of that required for bulk negative buoyancy. 145 N.C. Mitchell / Marine Geology 220 (2005) 131–151 (a) Discharge Q (m3/s) 1000 800 600 400 200 Q (m3/s) (b) 1980 November 1986 1000 Year 1990 February 1996 January 1990 Tide 4 2 0 500 0 25 30 5 2000 10 15 20 25 30 5 Tide h (m) 0 1970 10 15 20 Discharge Day of the month 10 1 0.1 1 Fr U (m/s) (c) 0 25 30 5 10 15 20 25 30 5 10 15 20 Day of the month Fig. 12. (a) Daily mean discharge of the Puyallup River at USGS water gauge station 17110014 (at Puyallup). (b) Enlargements of discharge during the two largest floods in 1986 and 1996, and a smaller flood in 1990. Also shown are the bay water levels due to tides predicted using NOAA software (tidal heights are relative to MLLW). (c) Outflow velocity U estimated from the Puyallup River discharge and its channel width and depth assumed to be constrained by bay water level. Fr is the water outflow surface Froude number also computed from the discharge. Extreme U and Fr are exaggerated because dynamic effects on the river outflow surface are ignored (see main text), but the graphs illustrate that tidal level may be as important in dictating outflow velocity and hence for mobilising bedload at river mouths as river water discharge. Also shown by the horizontal grey bars are maxima in U and Fr estimated from Q using the d’Arcy–Wiesbach formula for channelled flow which provides more conservative estimates. The maximum density difference is thus smaller than that required for bulk negative buoyancy but the outflow density excess would have been much larger than the 1 kg/m3 minimum suggested by Parsons et al. (2001). The outflow would have been initially hypopycnal (positively buoyant) before denser parts became unstable and plunged. If transformation occurred by progressive development of instabilities due to settling of particles (Hoyal et al., 1999; Maxworthy, 1999; Parsons et al., 2001), this probably occurred within a distance of 200 m from the edge of the river-mouth platform after the river outflow traversed the platform in contact with the bed as seems likely from the shallow 1996 bathymetry (Fig. 6). 10. Effects of tidal height Mobilisation of sediment across the river mouth platform, and hence formation of hyperpycnal flows, also likely depends on the bay’s tide because a high water level implies that the discharge will spread vertically and slow, and may even override seawater on the platform causing some sediments to deposit, whereas strong outflow velocity associated 146 Sediment concentration C (kg/m3) N.C. Mitchell / Marine Geology 220 (2005) 131–151 1 0.1 0.01 10 100 Discharge Q (m3/s) 1000 Fig. 13. Sediment rating graph constructed from US Geological Survey suspended sediment concentration (C) and associated discharge ( Q) measurements at Puyallup station 17110014. Discharge values are the daily mean Q for the dates that samples were collected (i.e. not instantaneous discharge). Sediment data were collected 1955–1994. The two lines show alternative scenarios for extrapolating to predict the river suspended load concentration during the largest flood in 1996. The continuous line shows log10(C) regressed on log10( Q) for Q N 100 m3/s, while the dashed line shows the regression for Q N 300 m3/s but with slope constrained to be unity as for the Eel River (Syvitski and Morehead, 1999). with extreme low tide will more likely cause coarser grained river sediment to be transported vigorously to the platform edge. The potential for hyperpycnal flows to develop depends on the density of the base of the outflow (McLeod et al., 1999), which in turn depends on availability of river bed sediment, particle settling velocities and flow stress (Bridge, 2003). Fig. 12b shows the largest discharges associated with the 1986 and 1996 floods. A lesser flood in 1990, however, coincided with a more extreme tide and may have mobilised sand across the platform more efficiently. Tidal heights shown in Fig. 12b were predicted using NOAA tidal modelling software and represent water level with respect to MLLW at NOAA tide gauge site 9446484, located at an adjacent warf. The prediction error for July–December 1997 when observed tides were available had a standard deviation of only 13 cm and mean offset of only 12 cm (observed higher on average than predicted water level height). Outflow velocity U can be roughly assessed from the ratio Q / (W(h–h 0)) shown in Fig. 12c (where Q is discharge, W = 200 m is the channel width, h is bay water level with respect to MLLW and h = ! 0.5 m is a typical depth with respect to MLLW of the channel across the river mouth platform). This value assumes that the outflow had the same water surface as the bay water. It exaggerates the extremes of outflow velocity because in practice the water’s viscosity will have caused its surface to decline more gradually into the bay. Hence, the extreme Froude numbers shown for low tide conditions are also exaggerated (calculated from Fr = U / M( g(h–h 0)) with g = 10 m/ s2) and the outflow is unlikely to have become as supercritical as shown. Nevertheless, the graphs illustrate that floods coinciding with extreme low tides could produce fast turbulent flows carrying sediment across the river mouth platform. This effect could be as important as the magnitude of river discharge in ensuring that larger sediment grades are carried across to the platform to the channel heads in the delta front because U and Fr are as large for small floods coinciding with spring tides as large floods coinciding with neap tides. To provide alternative constraints on U and Fr, the d’Arcy–Weisbach formula for steady channelled flow was used (Bridge, 2003). The formula represents the balance between weight of the water driving flow and friction around the margins. It states that the depthaveraged velocity U = (8gdS / f)1 / 2, where d is the flow depth (m), S is bed gradient (m/m) and f is a friction factor. Approximating d with Q / WU, the outflow velocity is predicted to be U = (8gQS / fW)1 / 3. The velocities shown by the horizontal grey bars in Fig. 12c were calculated with this relation using peak discharges Q = 1100 m3/s for 1986 and 1996, and 750 m3/s for 1990, W = 200 m and S = 0.002 (1 m in 500 m from the 1996 bathymetry in Fig. 6). The two bars in each graph correspond to f = 0.02 and 0.1 for a sandy plane bed and dune-covered bed, respectively. These calculated values are also not particularly accurate but they reinforce the view that outflows coinciding with extreme low tides could be effective in creating vigorous sand-laden hyperpycnal flows, as even the minim velocities of 2 m/s shown are able to mobilise 10 mm grains (Miller et al., 1977). N.C. Mitchell / Marine Geology 220 (2005) 131–151 Unfortunately, a lack of observations during floods prevents confirmation that the outflow was actually supercritical (Fr N 1). If it were supercritical, however, the loss of velocity associated with flow expansion and the potential for flow thickening at the platform edge suggests that the outflow could have undergone a hydraulic jump there. The associated enhanced turbulence may then have promoted mixing with underlying seawater and hence hyperpycnal flow generation. On the other hand, the densimetric Froude number of the river outflow-seawater interface (FrV = U / (Dqgd / q)1/2, where Dq is the outflow density contrast with seawater of density q) was almost certainly greater than unity for U N 2 m/s, Dq / q ~0.02 and d ~1–3 m, implying a strongly unstable lower interface. 11. Comparing flow stress with critical shear stress inferred from the landslides The peak recorded discharge of the river (N 1000 m3/s) can be combined with a simple argument of flow geometry to infer the range of possible flow stresses that caused channel bed failure. Assuming that erosion was solely by hyperpycnal flows generated by particle settling, their total discharge was assumed equal to the river discharge given their apparent correspondence in laboratory experiments (Parsons et al., 2001). The different channels provided a number of routes for the flows (Fig. 2), with probably one fourth of the discharge having travelled down the channel under study. The maximum specific discharge is therefore estimated to be Q f ~2.5 m2/s given the channel width of 100 m. The speed of the flow can be estimated from Q f divided by the flow thickness H. Fig. 11 shows the variation in bed shear stress as a function of flow thickness predicted using the relation s f = q wC du 1002 with C d = 0.006 for rippled sand (Soulsby, 1997) and where q w is the density of water (1000 kg/m3) and u 100 is the flow speed (m/ s) at 100 cm from the bed. Approximating u 100 by Q f / H thus allows us to calculate s f as a function of H. As the bed shear stress only begins to approach the estimated bed shear strength for H b 1 m, the flow was likely thin and vigorous if hyperpycnal. 147 12. Discussion of channel profile evolution Although the kinematic models shown in Fig. 9 were not intended to represent stream-power erosion models, it is nevertheless interesting that the geometry of the channel is best explained with a strong exponent on gradient (E~S n with n = 3). The model run with n = 1 (lower graph in Fig. 9) merely advects the channel margins profile as expected because E~S (i.e., Bz / Bt~Bz / Bx, where z is topography, t is time and x is down-channel distance) has a simple progressive wave solution (e.g., Paola, 2000). It does not reproduce the observed curvature of the channel bed, whereas the model with n = 2 provides an intermediate, almost acceptable solution. Weissel and Seidl (1998) show how knickpoints with n N 1 have solutions in which the propagation speed is an increasing function of gradient, and hence the solutions with n = 2 and n = 3 reproduce the bed curvature because the steep upper part of the channel propagates fastest. Hancock et al. (1998) developed a scaling argument for quarrying of blocks on river beds in which shear imposed by the flow is opposed by sliding friction which depends on block weight (normal stress). The argument suggested that the vertical thicknesses of joint-bounded blocks that can be quarried by streams should vary with the square of the local flow velocity. As the weight of a block depends on its thickness, a stronger flow can quarry a thicker block. Allowing for effects of gradient on flow velocity and other assumptions for how bedrock joints develop over time, it implies an erosion law of form E~S 2 / 3 (Whipple et al., 2000). As shear strength in cohesive sediments also typically increases linearly with depth (Skempton, 1970), a similar scaling argument may also apply. The apparently larger exponent on gradient inferred here (n = 3) then potentially arises because sediment can have non-zero shear strength at the surface (in contrast to block friction in the Hancock et al. (1998) model, which is zero at zero depth) and because increasing sediment shear strength with burial depth likely inhibits deeper erosion, hence tending to prevent the channel eroding back at constant elevation as implied by the n = 1 solution in Fig. 9. Whereas in the simple friction argument of Hancock et al. (1998) cycles of erosion and preparation of the bed jointing can continue and lead to deep erosion, unloading of compacted sediments does not usually 148 N.C. Mitchell / Marine Geology 220 (2005) 131–151 lead to their shear strength adjusting to a normal profile with small cohesion at the surface, hence deep erosion by shear failure in sediment is likely to be inhibited. A further interesting aspect of the long-profile topography of the dump site channel is that it has not evolved in a diffusive-like manner. Diffusion can be predicted in a similar way to alluvial channels (Paola, 2000), if materials in the bed are readily detached and erosion is controlled by variations in transport flux. The diffusion equation can be derived by combining the original (Bagnold, 1963) result that specific sand bedload transport flux Q b (kg/m/s) should roughly follow Q b~u 3 with the expectation that flow speed u should vary with the third power of gradient from the Chezy formula for channelized flows (e.g., Komar, 1969) coupled with a conservation of flow discharge relation. Using a continuity relation for the sediment (Bz / Bt = ! 1 / q sBQ b / Bx, where q s is the sediment density in the channel bed (kg/m3)), this implies a linear diffusion equation of form Bz / Bt = K / q sB2z / Bx 2 (K constant). Transport-limited bed evolution may be more complex and at least non-linear in practice because of the threshold of motion term and suspended load transport (Soulsby, 1997), the effect of gravity on bed and suspended loads (Damgaard et al., 2003) and assimilation of ambient water and bed material. Nevertheless, at least in simulations the latter effects are gradual over 100 m lengthscales (Mulder et al., 1998b; Skene et al., 1997) and flow density should vary little because the river load dominates the volume budgets. Aside from the topography of bedforms, some smoothing of relief over shorter lengthscales might therefore be expected even if bed evolution were not strictly speaking following a diffusion equation. Erosion of these channels was therefore probably not transport limited but detachment limited as would be the case with bed failure. 13. Conclusions From solely the morphological data presented, it is strictly speaking not possible to infer how much of the channel erosion occurred by hyperpycnal flows and how much from repeated deposition and failure of the upper delta front. However, the four shallow channels on the upper northwest surface of the dump site, away from the delta front, suggest that at least some of the flows were hyperpycnal and that they continued developing from the positively buoyant outflowing flood waters 200 m from the edge of the river mouth platform. Installation of equipment capable of recording the pattern of sediment and water fluxes during floods is needed to address this question in more detail. The outflow waters were predicted to have had densities of 4–10 kg/m3 greater than clear freshwater at bay water temperatures, which are still smaller than needed to achieve bulk negative buoyancy in salt water. The development of a plunging hyperpycnal flow may therefore have occurred by mechanisms such as described by Parsons et al. (2001), in which particles settled from the positively buoyant river outflow to create a denser particle-laden flow in the underlying salt water within the channel head amphitheatres overridden by flood waters at the edge of the river mouth platform. A potentially important further factor for hyperpycnal flow initiation is tidal height because extreme low tides may be needed to allow rapid flow across the river mouth platform and mobilisation of larger sediment grades. Deceleration of outflow during higher water levels may instead lead to sand bars being deposited. Considerations of tidal cyclicity and river mouth bathymetry with schemes based on river rating curves (Mulder et al., 2003) may be necessary for a more accurate prediction of hyperpycnal flow frequency and intensity. Erosion of the main channel led to retrogressive retreat of the steep channel bed, rather than a diffusive-like evolution of the channel bed profile which might be expected from bedload transport flux modulated by how flow velocities vary with bed gradient (Paola, 2000). Bed evolution appears to have occurred with erosion rate E modulated by gradient S according to E~S 3, i.e. with a much larger gradient exponent than has been expected for quarrying in bedrock river channels (Whipple et al., 2000). Bed failure is probably limited by increasing sediment shear strength with burial depth. Scenarios were assessed for the bed stress required for failure based on sediment geotechnical properties back-calculated from slope failure geometry and using the Puyallup River’s peak discharge to predict possible stresses that could be created by hyperpycnal flows. N.C. Mitchell / Marine Geology 220 (2005) 131–151 Although the calculations are not accurate, they suggest that, if hyperpycnal flows were the sole cause of erosion, they would need to have been vigorous in order to cause bed failure and hence the creation of hyperpycnal flows from floodwaters may have been quite efficient. Acknowledgements The multibeam sonar mapping was carried out from the NOAA vessel Rainier under the direction of Captain Daniel Herlihy and Lt. E.J. van den Ameele of NOAA and of Jim Gardner of the USGS. The USGS and NOAA generously provided access to these multibeam, other sounding and associated data. Jim Gardner is thanked for clarifying some technical aspects of the data. Peter Dartnell very kindly confirmed permission to reproduce Fig. 2 and provided coordinate data. Phil Allen suggested the idea of calculating outflow Froude number. I thank also Andrew Barclay for helping to locate sediment samples from Commencement Bay and Martin Payne of the Washington Department of Ecology for providing the sediment sample summaries shown on Fig. 2. Gene Ichinose helpfully clarified aspects of seismic modelling. I am in particular very grateful to Steve Palmer of the Washington State Department of Natural Resources, Geology and Earth Resources for a very enjoyable day in the field examining the bay and Puyallup channel and sampling Washington cherries, as well as providing some historical data and reports. Thierry Mulder, an anonymous reviewer and editor David Piper gave some very helpful feedback which led to significant improvements of this paper. 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