CMSDLCoreFiles2016-2017
January2017CMSDLCoreFiles
UpdateIndex
Resolved:TheUnitedStatesfederalgovernmentshould
substantiallyincreaseitseconomicand/ordiplomatic
engagementwiththePeople’sRepublicofChina.
CMSDLCoreFilesIndex(UpdatedJanuary2017)...........................................................................1
DiplomaticCapitalDisadvantage(January2017Update)...........................................................266
Vocabulary..............................................................................................................................267
1NCDiplomaticCapitalDisadvantageShell......................................................................270
NorthKoreaSpecificLink........................................................................................................274
2NC/1NRAT#1—Can’tSpeculateonTrump’sAgenda......................................................275
2NC/1NRAT#2—Trumpwon’tbeDistracted...........................................................277
2NC/1NRAT#3—DiplomacyFails.....................................................................................279
2NC/1NRAT#4—FixToughIssuesFirst..................................................................................280
2NC/1NRAT#5ISISThreatExaggerated.................................................................................281
2NC/1NRAT#6—CaseOutweighs..........................................................................................284
2ACAffirmativeAnswerstoDiplomaticCapitalDisadvantage(January2017Update)..........285
2ACDiplomaticCapitalDisadvantageAnswers.................................................................286
1ARExtensionsto2AC#1:Can’tPredictTrumpForeignPolicy........................................289
1ARExtensionsto2AC#3:DiplomacyFails.......................................................................290
ChinaRelationsDisadvantage(January2017Update)................................................................291
Vocabulary..............................................................................................................................292
1NC-ChinaRelationsDisadvantageShell.........................................................................295
1NC-ChinaRelationsDisadvantageHumanRightsLink.........................................................297
1NC-ChinaRelationsDisadvantage-NorthKoreaLink..........................................................298
1NCChinaRelationsDisadvantage-CurrencyManipulationLink..........................................299
2NC/1NR-ChinaRelationsDisadvantage-NorthKoreaLinkExtensions................................300
2NC/1NRChinaRelationsDisadvantageAT:#1Non-Unique:RelationsBadNow.............301
2NC/1NRChinaRelationsDisadvantageAT:#2“PlanHelpsChinaRelations”.......................304
2NC/1NRChinaRelationsDisadvantageAT:#3LINKTURN–“PlanisaWin-Win”............305
2NC/1NRChinaRelationsDisadvantageAT:#4NOLINK:“Trumpisaloosecannon”........307
2NC/1NRChinaRelationsDisadvantageAT:#5“NoNuclearProliferation”...........................310
2ACAffirmativeAnswerstoChinaRelationsDisadvantage(January2017Update)..............311
1ARExtensionto2AC#1:NON-UNIQUE:RelationsBadNow............................................314
ChinaNationalismDisadvantage(January2017Update)...........................................................317
ChinaNationalismDisadvantage(January2017Update)–AFFAnswerUpdates..............318
ChinaNationalismDisadvantage(Jan2017Update)–NEGBRINK....................................319
Notethatpagenumberingpicksupattheendofthe1stsemesterCoreFiles,startingatp.266.
Newpageswithnewevidencetoprintareinbold.Non-boldedargumentsaresameasbefore.
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Vocabulary
IslamicStateofIraqandSyria(ISIS,ISIL)—SunniMuslimextremistgroupthat
believesinthespreadofIslamacrosstheworld.Theyareamilitantandspread
theirpowerthroughviolence,kidnapping,andtorture.
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DiplomaticCapital:Powertoinfluenceothercountriesthroughnegotiations,
incentives,orbargainingchips.TheDAarguesthatObamaonlyhassomuch,so
hehastospenditwisely.
Syria:AcountryintheMiddleEastwherewashasbrokenoutbetweenAssad,
ISIS,andoppositiongroups.Therearemanydifferentreligiousandpolitical
groupsfightingforsurvivalandpowerinthecountry.Thedeathtollsarehighand
itisaseriouscrisis.
BasharAl-Assad:(Bah-sharall-awssawd):PresidentofSyriafightingforcontrol
ofthecountry.Heisdescribedasauthoritariankindoflikeadictator.Hehas
usedviolenceagainstthosethatopposehim.
DiplomaticTalks:Theseareconversationsbetweencountriestotrytofindpeace
inSyria.TheseincludetheUS,Russia,Syria,Iran,andTurkey.However,each
countryhasdifferentopinionsonhowandwhatshouldbedone.
SouthChinaSeas(SCS):PartofthePacificOceanjustsoutheastofChina.Itis
nearTaiwan,thePhilippines,Cambodia,andVietnam.Agreatdealofgoodsare
movedthroughtheareaandthere’ssupposedlyalotofoilintheseabed.There
areseriousdisputesaboutwhoactuallyownsitandthusmanycountriesare
fightingoverit.
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SenkakuIslands:IslandsintheEastChinaseathathavenoonelivingonthem.
TheUSgavethemtoJapan,butChinadisagrees.Theseislands,liketheSouth
ChinaSea,areareaswherefightingmighterupt.
XiJinping(Shejin-PING):GeneralSecretaryoftheCommunistPartyofChina,the
PresidentofthePeople'sRepublicofChina,andtheChairmanofChina'sCentral
MilitaryCommission.He’slikeObama,butevenmorepowerfulsinceChinadoes
nothavethesamepoliticalstructureastheUS.Essentially,he’sthepresidentof
China.
People’sLiberationArmy(PLA):TheChinesearmedforces.Basicallythe
accumulationofalltheChinesemilitary.Itisthelargestmilitaryintheworld.
AT=AnswersTo
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1NCDiplomaticCapitalDisadvantageShell
A. UNIQUENESS:President-electTrumpisfocusingdiplomaticrelationson
RussiainsteadofChina.
BEAUCHAMP&ALEEM,DECEMBER18TH,2016[ZachBeauchamp,internationalwriterforVoxandpreviously
editedasectiononpoliticalthoughtatThinkProgressandcontributedtoTheDish,ZeeshanAleem,Voxwritercoveringeconomics
andenergyfortheforeignaffairsteam,“ObamacozieduptoChinaandbattledPutin.Trumpisdoingtheexactopposite.”
http://www.vox.com/world/2016/12/18/13921962/trump-obama-china-russia-policy]
PresidentBarackObamahasspenthistwotermsinofficeworkingtobuildclosertieswithChinawhile
seekingtoisolateandpunishVladimirPutin’sRussia.
Eightyearslater,MoscowissubjecttopainfulUSsanctionsandcontinuedpubliccriticismfromObama
andhisaides.Beijingisakeyeconomicpartnerthathasattimesservedasaconduittotherogueregime
inNorthKorea.
Toalargeextent,that’sbecausethetwocountrieshaveactedfairlydifferentlyinrecentyears.Russia’s
2014invasionofUkraine,2015bombingcampaigninSyria,and2016hackoftheUSelectionconvinced
theadministrationthatRussiawasathreattotheinternationalorder—apowerunwillingtoplaybythe
rules.DespiteitsaggressivemovesintheEastandSouthChinaSeas,Beijinghasbeenfarless
confrontational,andfarmorewillingtonegotiatewiththeWestingoodfaithonlong-rangeissueslike
climatechange.
TeamTrumpseesthingstotallydifferently.
President-electDonaldTrumpseesPutinnotasathreattoWesternnormsbutasatoughandcapable
leaderandpotentialpartnerinfightingradicalIslam.China,inhiseyes,isathreattotheUSeconomy—
responsibleforthelossofmassivenumbersofAmericanjobs—andacountrythatUSpresidentshave
beenfartoosoftonfordecades.Bythisanalysis,Russiaisthepotentialpartner,andChinathepotential
enemyworthconfronting.
“ChinaisthebiggeststateadversaryinTrump’smind,”PatrickCronin,theseniordirectoroftheAsiaPacificSecurityProgramattheleft-leaningCenterforaNewAmericanSecurity,tellsVox.“It'snotRussia.
It'sChina.”
Thedifferingworldviewshavebeenonpublicdisplayinrecentdays.Obamausedhispressconferenceat
theWhiteHouseonFridaytosuggestPutinwasconnectedtohiscountry’scyberattacksagainsttheUS
andbelittledRussia."Theyareasmallercountry,theyareaweakercountry,theireconomydoesn't
produceanythingthatpeoplewanttobuyexceptforoilandgasandarms,theydon'tinnovate,”hesaid.
OnChina,herecommendedrespectfordiplomatictradition,cautioningagainstTrump’sindicationsthat
hewouldconsiderdroppingWashington’s“OneChina”policy,thediplomaticunderstandingonthestatus
ofTaiwanthathasunderpinnedUS-Chineserelationsfordecades.
Trump,bycontrast,haspubliclycastigatedtheCIAforitsassertionthatRussiaranasustainedhacking
campaigndesignedtoboosthischancesofwinningthepresidency.Andhe’sbeenunrepentantabouthis
tradition-breakingphonecallwiththepresidentofTaiwanandlanguageonrevisitingOneChina.Beijing
hasrespondedbysayingthatthecountrieswouldhave“nothingtodiscuss”onotherissuesifTrumptries
todeviatefromOneChina.AndafterChinaagreedtoreturnanunmannedUSNavydroneitseizedon
Friday—anactthatledtoastrikinguptickinmaritimetensionsbetweenthetwocountries—Trump
tweeted:“WeshouldtellChinathatwedon’twantthedronetheystoleback.-letthemkeepit!”
Whatthissuggests—though,knowingTrump,wecan’tbesure—isthatwe’reabouttoseeamassive
about-faceingreatpowerpolitics.Obama’sbasicpolicy—workwithChina,isolateRussia—isabout
tobeflippedonitshead.TheUSisgoingtostartworkingwithRussiaonaraftofissues,andstart
challengingChinaonalotmore.ThatcouldmeanUSpolicyreversalsonawholehostofissues,from
SyriatoclimatechangetotheUSeconomy,withpotentiallymajorconsequencesforpeoplearoundthe
world.
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B. LINK:RussiaviewsUS-Chinaengagementliketheplanasazerosum
tradeoffwithproductiveUS-Russiandiplomacy
THEHILL,DECEMBER7TH,2016[Prominentpoliticalnewswebsite,EDWARDGOLDBERG,THEHILLCONTRIBUTOR
http://thehill.com/blogs/pundits-blog/international-affairs/309244-trump-is-playing-a-risky-political-game-with-china]
IftheChineseleadershipperceivethattheirlegitimacyisthreatenedbyTrump’swillingnesstobreak
historicprotocolandpubliclyinteractwithTaiwan,thenthepossibilitiesofarivalrybetweentheUnited
StatesandChinasimilartothepre-WorldWarIanalogyoftheUnitedKingdomandGermanycould
becomeacute.
AbettingthispotentialrivalryisRussia,thetruedecliningpowerwithagrossdomesticproductnow
aboutthesizeofthatofSpain.Russiaisthemajorcountrythatisthreatenedbytheglobalorderand
threateningtotheglobalorder.
Russiahasnothingtolosebytryingtoreshufflethedeck.WhatmakestheRussiansituationmore
complicatedisthatonaccountofitspoliticalcultureandhistory,theMoscowperceivestheworld
differently.Itseesitin19thcenturygreatgameterms.
Russiaisthemajoreconomythat,beyondacollapsingenergymarket,hasnoskinintheglobalizedgame.
JustlookatthisintermsoftheUnitedStates.Ofallthemajoreconomicplayersintheworld,theUnited
StateshasbyfarthesmallestandalmostnonexistenttraderelationshipwithRussia.
In2015,theUnitedStatesexportedapproximately$116billionworthofproductstoChinaandimported
approximately$482billion.AlthoughtheimportnumbersfromChinagreatlyoutweightheexport
numbers,theyonlytellpartofthestory.
WhetheritisWalmart,Apple,Nike,orwarehousingChinesesteelinLongBeach,California,thereisavast
amountofAmericanswhosejobsaredependentonChina.
Inaddition,GeneralMotors(GM)anditsjoint-venturedChinesefactoriesmanufacturedandsoldmore
than3.6millionvehiclesinChinain2015,makingitGM’slargestmarket.ChinaisApple’ssecondlargest
market.EvenHersheyChocolatesisnowproducinginChinafortheChinesemarket.
IntermsofU.S.exportstoChina,theproductsrangefromtheapproximately12.3millionbalesofcotton
exportedannuallyprimarilyfromTexastoMercedescarsmanufacturedinIndianafortheChinesemarket.
U.S.exportstoRussialastyear,however,wereonly$7.1billion,lessthanonepercentofourtotal
exports.Importsin2015fromRussiawereapproximately$16.6billion.IntermsofcustomersforU.S.
products,RussiaisaboutthesamesizeasThailand.
Russia’sneedofspheresofinfluenceandbufferstatesisindirectconflictwithglobalization.Ifacountryis
economicallyinterlinkedaroundtheglobe,itdoesnotneedspheresofinfluenceforprotection.
Itisverydoubtfulthatinterlinkedmarketswillattackinterlinkedmarkets.WhatRussianleadership
doesn'tunderstandisthatthechessgameofrealpolitik,ofpawnsinthenameofbufferstatesprotecting
thequeen,isnolongernecessary.
Theproblem,however,isthattheUnitedStatescannowbeeasilytrappedintoplayingtheRussiangame.
Holdingaveryweakeconomichand,notwantingtochangeitssystemfromakleptocracytoamodern
economicnationandbelievingthattheprojectedpowerofthestateisasubstitutefordemocratic
legitimacy,RussiaseesitselfcaughtbetweenAmericaandChina.
Inthissituation,Putin’sbeststrategyistofollowtheNixonandKissingermodel,butinreverse.Nixon
andKissingersawtheneedtore-establishrelationswithChina;thatis,toplaytheChinacardasaway
topressuretheSovietUnion.
Putin,byplacatingthenewTrumpadministration,whichcampaignedonaconfrontationalrelationship
withChina,couldbeinapositiontoplaytheAmericancardagainsthiseconomicgianttotheeast.But
forAmerica,thisisafool’sgame.
C.INTERNALLINK:RussiaiskeytonegotiatingaceasefireinSyriaandtodefeat
ISIS
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COUNCILONFOREIGNRELATIONS,2015[PhilipH.Gordon,SeniorFellow,“Syria:TheNeedforDiplomacy
andDe-escalation”PolicyInnovationMemorandumNo.55,December2015]
Thecurrentpolicy—graduallyescalatingthewarinthehopeofforcingacomprehensive
politicaltransition—isunlikelytosucceed.AsopposedtoregimesinTunisia,Egypt,andYemen,
whereunpopularleadersquicklyfelltooppositionprotests,Assadisbackednotonlybysizeable
militaryforcesandaconsiderableportionofhispopulationbutalso—andperhapsmost
importantly—bymajoroutsidepowersdeterminedtopreventthecollapseofhisregime.Tehransees
itspositioninSyriaascriticaltoitsregionalleverageandhasthussuppliedtheregimewithmoney,
weapons,anddirectmilitaryassistance,particularlythroughitsproxiesinHezbollah.Russiaisalso
determinedtokeeptheregimeinplace.Moscowvehementlyopposestheprincipleofregime
changeandworriesthatAssad'sfallcouldleadtoevengreaterchaoswithnooneinchargeor
extremiststakingpower.
ThisexplainswhyoutsidesupportforAssad'sopposition,providedbytheUnitedStatesandothers,
hasnotaccomplisheditsstatedgoals.Ratherthanforcingtheregimetothetable—essentiallyto
negotiateitsowndemise—ithasledonlytoamilitarystalematethatisbenefitingtheextreme
elementsoftheopposition,includingtheIslamicState.Theresulthasbeenagrowing,openendedconflict,withdevastatinghumanitarian,strategic,andgeopoliticalconsequences.
DiplomacyandDe-escalation
ToendtheconflictinSyria,theUnitedStatesshouldpursueacourseofactionconsistingofthe
followingsteps:
Institutionalizeadiplomaticprocesswithallpartiesinvolved.TheOctober30andNovember14
multilateralmeetingsinVienna,forthefirsttimeincludingIranandSaudiArabia,wereausefulfirst
step.Participantsagreedonbasicprinciples,includingpreservingSyria'sunity,independence,and
territorialintegrity,andontheneedforapoliticalprocessthatwouldultimatelyleadtoanew
constitutionandelections.Whileinfluentialcountriesremaindeeplydividedonthequestionof
whether,how,orwhentorequireAssad'sdeparture,onlybyhammeringoutissuescollectivelyand
realizingthehighcostsofmaximalistpositionscanthegapsbenarrowed.WhentheBosnia"Contact
Group"wascreatedasthewarthereragedintheearly1990s,theUnitedStates,Europe,andRussia
wereallfarapartonkeyissues.Theyultimatelycompromised,imposedasolutiononrecalcitrant
localparties,andagreedonasettlementthathaskeptthepeaceinBosniafortwodecades.
InitiateabilateralU.S.back-channelprocesswithRussia.Becausenoagreementonthemostsensitive
issuescanbereachedwithnearlytwentyparticipantsaroundatable,theUnitedStatesshouldpursue
back-channeldiscussionswithRussiaatthehighestlevels.Theobjectivewouldbeaquidproquo
thatassuresMoscowthattheAssadregimewillnotcollapseinexchangeforacease-fire
betweentheregimeandtheopposition,andjointfocusontheIslamicState.IfRussia
continuestoinsistonproppinguptheregimeandindiscriminatelybombingallelementsof
theopposition,theUnitedStatesandotherswillmaintaintheirsupportforopposition
fighters,thewarwillgoon,andRussiawillalienatetheSunniworldandbecomeagrowing
targetforterrorists.TheOctober31bombingofaRussianairlinerovertheSinaiandtheNovember
24downingofaRussianfighterjetbyTurkeyunderscoretherisksforRussiaintheabsenceofa
settlement.ButifMoscowiswillingtopressforpolicychangesfromDamascus—including
supportforacease-fire,recognitionofoppositionautonomyinpartsofthecountry,andaprocessfor
longer-termleadershipchanges—adiplomaticagreementmightbepossible.
Pursueacease-firebetweentheregimeandtheopposition.Thegoalsofanagreementwouldinclude
anendtobothsides'offensiveoperations,includingregimeaerialattacks;devolutionofpowerso
thatregionscurrentlyheldbytheoppositioncangovernthemselves;theuninhibitedprovisionof
humanitarianassistancetobothsides;andtheadoptionofapoliticalprocesstodeterminepolitical
leadersandstructurestogovernanultimatelyunifiedSyria.Giventheextremelyfragmentednature
oftheopposition,withnosingleauthorityincontrolandevenmoderategroupsnowfighting
alongsideextremists,itwillbenearlyimpossibletopreventsomeviolationsofacease-fireevenifan
agreementisreached.ButifRussiaandIranwereabletoguaranteeanendtotheregime's
attacksontheoppositionandtheprovisionofhumanitarianaid,supportersoftheopposition
wouldbewellplacedtopresstheirclientstoacceptacease-firebythreateningtocutoff
assistanceforthosewhorefuse.TheIslamicStatewouldnotbepartytothecease-fireandwould
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continuetobetargeted.Internationalpeacekeepersmightberequiredtopolicetheagreement,but
therisksofdeployingthemwouldbesignificantlyreducedifalltheexternalpowerswerecommitted
tothedeal.
DeferthequestionofAssad.ThereisnodoubtthatAssadisabrutaldictatorwhodeservestoface
justice.Thequestion,however,iswhetherthepursuitofthatelusivegoalisworththecostsofan
unendingwarortheconsequencesofthemilitaryescalationthatwouldbenecessarytoendthewar.
TheUnitedStatesandothersdonothavetoabandontheirpositionthatAssadhaslostlegitimacyand
thatSyriawillnotbefullystable—oracceptedbytheinternationalcommunity—aslongasheisin
place.Andtheycouldconditionsupportforacease-fireonapoliticalprocessthatwoulddetermine
thecountry'seventualpoliticalstructureandleadership.Buttheyshouldnotallowdisagreement
overAssad'sfatetobetheobstacletoreducingtheviolence,ifotherelementsofanagreementcould
bereached.ThosecountriesmostdeterminedtoseeAssad'sdeparture—suchasSaudiArabiaand
Turkey—willresistsuchanoutcome,butaclearU.S.positionandclaritythattheUnitedStateswill
notsupportmilitaryescalationcouldhelpbringabouttheiracquiescence.ManywearySyrians,anda
growingnumberofcountries,evenintheArabworld,wouldwelcomeanendtothefightingevenifit
wasnotaccompaniedbyimmediateregimechangeinDamascus.
ContinuethefightagainsttheIslamicState.Evenastheypursueadiplomaticagreementtode-escalate
theconflictbetweentheoppositionandtheregime,theUnitedStatesanditspartnersshould
intensifythewarontheIslamicState.ThisshouldincludeeffortstoempowertheSunnisofIraq,
maintenanceofthecoalition'sbombingcampaign,greaterintelligencesharinginEurope,the
deploymentofU.S.andotherspecialforces,andtheprovisionofmilitaryassistancetogroupswilling
totargettheIslamicState.Iftheregimeandtheoppositionforcesacceptedcease-firesvis-à-vis
eachotheronthebasisofthecurrentlinesofcontrol,theyandtheiroutsidebackerscouldfocus
theireffortsonthecommonenemy—theIslamicState.
A. Impact:ISISwillusenuclearweapons
Macdonald,March2016[Cheyenne,WriterforDailyMail,citesHarvardStudy,March30,
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-3516207/Harvard-researcher-warns-ISIS-brink-using-nuclear-weapons.html]
Thepossibilityofanuclear-armedISISmaynotbeasfar-offasmanyexpertssuggest ,aHarvard
researcherhaswarned.InarecentreportforProjectonManagingtheAtomfromHarvard’sBelfer
Center,MatthewBunnexplainshowthethreatofnuclearterrorismisrisingasextremistgroupscontinue
toevolve.WhiletherehasnotbeenanyconcreteindicationthatISISispursuingnuclearmaterials,the
researchersaysthattheactionsandrhetoricofthegroupsuggestitsneedforsuchpowerfulweapons.In
recentyears,therehavebeennumerousoccasionsofsuspiciouseventsrelatingtonuclearfacilitiesin
Belgium,DefenseOnepointsout.WhileitwouldbedifficulttoISISorotherterrorgroupstoobtainthe
knowledgeofsecurityfeaturesandaccessnuclearmaterials,Bunnexplainsthattheevidenceofsuch
intentionsaregrowing.Thereportprecedesthe2016NuclearSecuritySummit,whichwilltakeplace
betweenMarch31andApril1.Accordingtotheauthors,thesummitwillhelptodeterminethefeasibility
ofterroristgroupsgettingtheirhandsonnuclearmaterials.Thethreatscomefromthepossibilityofthree
typesofnuclearorradiologicalterrorism,theauthorswrite: detonationofanactualnuclearbomb, sabotageofanuclearfacility,oruseofa‘dirtybomb’tospreadradioactivematerial. Eachofthese
comesatadifferentlevelofrisk,andtheauthorsfocusforthemostparton thepotentialdangerfrom theuseofanactualnuclearbomb,astheseresultswouldbe‘mostcatastrophic .’Still,theothertypes
ofthreatsdonotcomewithoutconsequences.‘Theradiationfromadirtybomb,bycontrast,mightnot
killanyone—atleastinthenearterm—butcouldimposebillionsofdollarsineconomicdisruptionand
cleanupcosts,’theauthorswrite.‘Theeffectsofsabotageofanuclearfacilitywoulddependheavilyon
thespecificnatureoftheattack,butwouldlikelyrangebetweentheothertwotypesofattackinseverity.
'Thedifficultyofachievingasuccessfulsabotageisalsointermediatebetweentheothertwo.’
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SpecificLinks
NorthKoreaSpecificLink
DiplomacywithChinaoverNorthKoreadestroysdiplomaticcapital
Cohen,March2016[Michael,SeniorLecturerintheDepartmentofSecurityStudiesand
CriminologyatMacquarieUniversity,“China:BetweenU.S.SanctionsandNorthKorea”,march
21,http://nationalinterest.org/blog/the-buzz/china-between-us-sanctions-north-korea-15551]
TheU.S.AmbassadortotheUnitedNations,SamanthaPower,laudedChinalastweekforjoining
WashingtoninwhatisprobablythetoughestresponseNorthKoreahasfacedintwentyyears.
Butsuchpraisemaywellhavebeenpremature.Lastweek,Chineseforeignministryspokesman
LuKangsaidBeijingopposedanyunilateralpunishmentsagainstNorthKorea.Indeed,some
evidencesuggeststhatPyongyangsiphonedofftensofmillionsofdollarsthroughaSingaporean
branchofChina'sbiggestbanktoevadethesanctionsandconcealpaymentsforarmsandluxury
goodsfortheregime.ThegrimrealityisthatKimJong-ilandKimJong-undecidedthatNorth
Koreamusthavenuclearweapons,andthatChinahasthusfardecidedthat,asfarasBeijingis
concerned,thebenefitsofthatprogramoutweighthecosts.Chinahasmademanypledgeson
NorthKoreansanctionsinthepast,buthasalwaysfailedtohonorthemandtosystematically
enforceitscommitments.Onthebenefitsideoftheledger,anuclearNorthKoreaincreasesthe
costandimprobabilityofanyU.S.-SouthKoreanmoveagainstNorthKorea,andkeepsaregime
friendlytoBeijingonitsdoorstep.Perhapsjustasimportantly, anuclearNorthKoreaimpedes U.S.powerprojectionontheKoreanpeninsulaandsapsU.S.diplomaticandpolitical resourcesthatcannotbedirectedtootherareassuchastheSouthChinaSea. Beijingdeeply
opposesthesanctioningofanybodyusingNorthKoreanslavelabor.Chinamaybekeepingthe
regimeafloatthroughitsprovisionofeconomicandmilitaryresources—betterafteralltofeed
NorthKoreansinNorthKoreathanriskamassiverefugeeexodusintoChinaiftheregime
collapses—andcanrationallyjustifythisasagoodinvestmentonthesegrounds.
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2NC/1NRExtensions
2NC/1NRAT#1—Can’tSpeculateonTrump’s
Agenda
TheysayWedon’tknowwhatTrump’sForeignPolicyplansareyet,but
[GIVE:05SUMMARYOFOPPONENT’SSINGLEARGUMENT]
1. ExtendourBeauchamp&Aleem-Dec18thevidence.
[PUTINYOURAUTHOR’SNAME]
It’smuchbetterthantheir_____________evidencebecause:
[PUTINTHEIRAUTHOR’SNAME]
[CIRCLEONEORMOREOFTHEFOLLOWINGOPTIONS]:
(it’snewer) (theauthorismorequalified) (ithasmorefacts)
(theirevidenceisnotlogical/contradictsitself)
(historyprovesittobetrue)
(theirevidencehasnofacts)(Theirauthorisbiased)(ittakesintoaccounttheirargument)
( )(theirevidencesupportsourargument)
[WRITEINYOUROWN!]
[EXPLAINHOWYOUROPTIONISTRUEBELOW]
TheBeauchamps&AleemevidencesaysthatTrumpseesChinaasathreatandasa
resulthasbecomefriendlywithPutininordertoalignhimselfwithanallytohelp
lessenChina’sdominanceintheregion.
[EXPLAINWHYYOUROPTIONMATTERSBELOW]
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________
2. Trump’srecentappointmentsshowhisagendaisgearedtowarddiplomacy
withRussia
FOREIGNPOLICYASSOCIATION,DECEMBER15TH,2016[JamesNadeau,Europeanaffairsadvisorandforeign
policyanalystcurrentlybasedinBrussels,BelgiumandhasbeenfeaturedinTheKyivPostandtheHill,
http://foreignpolicyblogs.com/2016/12/15/trump-courting-russia-contain-china/]
OnDecember13,DonaldTrumpnominatedExxonMobilCEORexTillersonforSecretaryof
State.Tillerson’snominationraisedquestionsonwhetherthetopexecutiveofoneofthe
world’slargestcorporations(5thlargestbymarketcap,tobeexact)canputtheAmerican
nationalinterestabovebusinessinterests.Questionsofincompatibilityaside,whatweighs
evenheavieraretheaccusationsofTillerson’sconnectionstoRussianPresident
VladimirPutin.
Trump’spickisthemostrecentofmanycontroversialchoicesfortopjobsin
hisadministration.ThePresident-elect’sinnercirclehaslongbeenaccusedof
harboringpro-Putinandpro-Russianattitudesreflectedintheircabinetpicksand
associates.
Forexample,formerTrumpcampaignmanagerPaulManaforthasbeeninvestigatedbythe
FBIoverconnectionstoahigh-rankingpro-RussianpoliticianinUkraine,fromwhomhe
allegedlyreceiveda$12.7millioncashpayment.FutureTrumpnationalsecurityadvisor
GeneralMichaelFlynnattendedadinnerinMoscowin2015andwasseatedatPutin’s
table,whilelong-timeTrumpsupporterRogerStoneadmittedtohavinghad“backchannel”
communicationwithWikileaksheadJulianAssange.
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StoneboastedonTwitterthatHillarycampaignchairmanJohnPodestawouldhavesome
“timeinthebarrel,”andPodesta’semailswerehackedbyRussiangroupsandthenposted
onWikileaks.TrumphimselfhasonmultipleoccasionsshoweredPutinwithpraise,a
favorthatwasreciprocatedbytheRussianPresident.
AtthesametimeTrumpiscozyinguptoRussia,heistakinganincreasinglyrougher
tonewithChina.Ashehasmadeabundantlyclearwhileonthecampaigntrail,he
considersChinaaserious—ifnotthemostserious—threattotheUnitedStates.
3. TrumpispushingforlessdiplomaticengagementwithChinaandmorewith
Russia.InvolvementwithChinadirectlytrades-offwithRussia.
KOHLMANN,DECEMBER29TH,2016[ThomasKohlmann,writerforDeutscheWelle
newspaper,interviewingThomasJäger,Professorofinternationalandforeignpoliticsatthe
UniversityofColognehttp://www.dw.com/en/can-trump-contain-china-with-russiashelp/a-36935856]
DW:BypickinghawkishChinacriticPeterNavarrotoleadthenewlyestablishedWhite
HouseNationalTradeCouncil,whatisDonaldTrumptryingtoachieve?
ThomasJäger:Navarro'snominationprovesthatTrumpwantstoreshapeandredesign
policiesratherthanadaptingtothechangingsituations.TheincomingUSadministration
saysitwantstotakeanewpathinforeignpolicy.Thepresident-elect'steamwon'tbeas
cautiousinitsbusinesswithChinaastheObamaadministration.TrumpbelievesthattheUS
governmentshaveemboldenedBeijing,whichnowdominatesinternationaltradepolicies.
WillTrumpstartatradewarwithChina?
WhatwecansayforsureistheUSwon'tremainpassiveanymore.TheUSunderTrump
willredefineitsrelationshipwithRussiaandtrytocontainChinawithMoscow'shelp.
TrumpwillalsostrengthentieswithChina'sneighboringcountriesinthePacific.This
wouldbeanenormouseconomicandpoliticalcontainmentofChina.
AreyousayingthatrapprochementwithRussiaandaggressiontowardChinaispart
ofthesameUSforeignpolicy?
Ithinkso.IfTrumpsucceedsinreshapingUSrelationswithRussia,Chinawillcome
underpressure.ThenBeijingislikelytonegotiateandcouldgiveupitsclaimsontheSouth
ChinaSeaoroffertradeconcessions.Weshouldkeepinmindthatanaggressiveeconomic
policyplayedabigroleintheUS'"victory"overtheSovietUnion.
Areweinforacompleteparadigmshift?
Itlookspossible.Maybe,itwon'tcometothis.ItalsodependsonhowMoscowandBeijing
reacttoTrump'spolicies.ButitisprettyobviousthatTrumpandhisteamarepursuing
apolicyofbeingtoughwithChinaandeasywithRussiaatthispoint.
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2NC/1NRAT#2—Trumpwon’tbe
Distracted
TheysayTrumpwon’tbede-railedfromsolvingtheSyrianconflictwithRussia,but
[GIVE:05SUMMARYOFOPPONENT’SSINGLEARGUMENT]
1 ExtendourHill‘16evidence.
[PUTINYOURAUTHOR’SNAME]
It’smuchbetterthantheirMacleodevidencebecause:
[PUTINTHEIRAUTHOR’SNAME]
[CIRCLEONEORMOREOFTHEFOLLOWINGOPTIONS]:
(it’snewer) (theauthorismorequalified) (ithasmorefacts)
(theirevidenceisnotlogical/contradictsitself)
(historyprovesittobetrue)
(theirevidencehasnofacts)(Theirauthorisbiased)(ittakesintoaccounttheir
argument)
( )(theirevidencesupportsourargument)
[WRITEINYOUROWN!]
[EXPLAINHOWYOUROPTIONISTRUEBELOW]
IftheUSworkswithChina,RussiawillnotseeUSasastrategicpartneranymore
becauseoftheirdiplomaticengagementwithChina.RussiawillonlyworkwiththeUS
becausetheyseetheUSasastrategicpartnertohelpincreasetheireconomyand
regionalpresence.IftheUSworkswithChina,Russiawillnotseediplomacywiththe
USasbeneficial.
[EXPLAINWHYYOUROPTIONMATTERSBELOW]
TheirMacLeodcardsaysthattheStatusQuoinvolvementwithRussiasolvesthe
SyrianconflictbecausecurrentRussian-USapproachtodiplomaticsolutionsare
working.Theaffirmative’splancausesashiftincurrentTrumpdiplomatic
engagement,causingtheimpacts.
2 Link:Trump’scurrentstrategyofgettingclosetoRussiagetsderailedifhe
turnstowardChina
NADEAU,DECEMBER15TH,2016[JamesNadeau,Europeanaffairsadvisorandforeignpolicyanalystandhasbeen
featuredinTheKyivPostandtheHill,http://foreignpolicyblogs.com/2016/12/15/trump-courting-russia-contain-china/]
StoneboastedonTwitterthatHillarycampaignchairmanJohnPodestawouldhavesome
“timeinthebarrel,”andPodesta’semailswerehackedbyRussiangroupsandthenposted
onWikileaks.TrumphimselfhasonmultipleoccasionsshoweredPutinwithpraise,a
favorthatwasreciprocatedbytheRussianPresident.
AtthesametimeTrumpiscozyinguptoRussia,heistakinganincreasinglyrougher
tonewithChina.Ashehasmadeabundantlyclearwhileonthecampaigntrail,he
considersChinaaserious—ifnotthemostserious—threattotheUnitedStates.
Firstandforemost,heidentifiedChinaasaneconomicthreat,bentonundermining
America’sglobaleconomicpre-eminencebyinventingtheconceptofglobalwarmingin
ordertoreducethecompetitivenessofU.S.manufacturing.HealsorepeatedlyblastedChina
for“takingourjobs”andaccusedtheMiddleKingdomof“illegaldumping.”Addtothatthe
factthatTrumpreversedinearlyDecemberdecadesofestablishedU.S.policytowards
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ChinabyacceptingacongratulatorycallfromTaiwaneseleaderTsaiIng-wen.Afterthecall,
heopenlycalledintoquestionAmerica’sadherencetoChina’s“OneChina”policy.
IfTrumpadvisorsareindeedright,andthephonecallwithTaiwanwaslongplanned,then
thePresident-elect’sreasoningbehindstaffingtheWhiteHousewithpro-Russian
hacksbecomesquiteclear:breakingapartthebuddingMoscow-Beijingalliance.
Seeninthislight,aligningwithRussiaisnotanexpressionofsubserviencetoVladimir
Putin,butinsteadastrategiccalculusoftheTrumpadministrationmeanttocontain
China.Duetogeographicalproximityandhistoricalanimosity,RussiaandChinaare
acutelyawareofthethreattheyposetoeachother.InTrump’sview,facedwitha
revisionistBeijing,MoscowandWashingtonarenaturalallies.
ChinahasalwaysbeensuspiciousofRussia’sintentions,becauseMoscowremainsfirmly
anchoredintheWest.InthewordsofaChineseacademic,“IfthenextU.S.president
showsmorerespecttoRussiaandislesstoughtowardMoscow,theKremlin’s‘turnto
theEast’willverylikelyswingtotheWest.”
Itseemsthattimehascome.WhileTrumphasindicatedthatheishopingformore
engagementagainstChinafromregionalallies,especiallyJapan,someofAmerica’salliesno
longerseemtobeinclinedtofollowWashington’slead.WhentheAustraliangovernment
declinedtocommentonTrump’soverturestoTaiwan,citing“nationalinterest”as
justification,eyebrowswereraisedinastonishment.Butwhenlookingattheeconomicdata
itmakessense:Australiaisthe“developedworld’smost-Chinadependenteconomy”,owing
muchofits25yearsofuninterruptedeconomicgrowthtoBeijing’sboomingdemandfor
commodities.
Thishelpstoexplainastringofpro-ChinesedecisionstakenbyMalcolmTurnbull,from
agreeingtoa99-yearChineseleaseofpartsofthePortofDarwintorejectinga$40billion
JapanesebidtobuildAustralia’snewsubmarinefleet.WithChinabeingthemost
importanttradingpartnerforAustralia,itappearsthatBeijinghasmadeitsinfluencein
Australiastick.ForincomingSecretaryofStateRexTillerson,China’sgrowingcloutin
AustraliaandacrosstheAsia-PacificwillmakestrengtheningU.S.allianceswithtrusted
allieslikeJapanapriority.
ForboththeU.S.andRussia,strategicalignmentisawaytokeeptheloomingChina
threatincheck.WhileTrumpwilllikelydisengagefromEurope,heislikelyto
continuetofocusontheAsia-PacificandChina’scontainment.Thus,thestrategic
encirclementthatChinasuspectedtheU.S.wouldpursueunderObama’spivottoAsia
willcontinue,albeitinanalteredform–notprimarilyviathecontrolofPacificisland
chainsbytheU.S.anditsallies,butthroughBeijing’simmediateneighbor,Russia.
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2NC/1NRAT#3—DiplomacyFails
TheysayDiplomatictalksfail,but
[GIVE:05SUMMARYOFOPPONENT’SSINGLEARGUMENT]
1.ExtendourevidencefromTHEHILL.
[PUTINYOURAUTHOR’SNAME]
It’smuchbetterthantheirForeignPolicyevidencebecause:
[PUTINTHEIRAUTHOR’SNAME]
[CIRCLEONEORMOREOFTHEFOLLOWINGOPTIONS]:
(it’snewer)
(theauthorismorequalified)
(ithasmorefacts)
(theirevidenceisnotlogical/contradictsitself)
(historyprovesittobetrue)
(theirevidencehasnofacts)(Theirauthorisbiased)(ittakesintoaccounttheirargument)
(
)(theirevidencesupportsourargument)
[WRITEINYOUROWN!] [EXPLAINHOWYOUROPTIONISTRUEBELOW]
TheirForeignPolicyevidencesaysthatdiplomacywillfailbecauseRussiaisn’tfightingISISenoughnow.
However,theirevidencedoesn’taccountforTrump’snewdiplomaticcapitalwithRussia,whichwill
bringthemtothenegotiatingtable.
[EXPLAINWHYYOUROPTIONMATTERSBELOW]
Thismattersbecause:IfwecontinuefocusingonRussia,they’llworktowardaceasefireinSyriaand
helpusbeatISIS.OurinternallinkistrueandwecanpreventISISfromusingnuclearweapons.
2
TrumpandPutinwillworktogethertosolvetheSyrianconflict.
NEWYORKTIMES,NOVEMBER14TH,2016[JavierC.Hernández,
https://www.bostonglobe.com/news/world/2016/11/14/trump-makes-first-overtures-chinarussia/FvvDconeMnMZ36KsPEPI0M/story.html]
RussianPresidentVladimirPutincalledTrumpMondaytooffercongratulations.Trump’stransition
officesaidthepresident-elect“isverymuchlookingforwardtohavingastrongandenduring
relationshipwithRussiaandthepeopleofRussia.’’
TheKremlinsaidPutinalsoexpressedRussia’sreadinessto‘‘establishapartner-likedialoguewith
thenewadministrationonthebasisofequality,mutualrespect,andnoninterferenceindomestic
relations,’’theAssociatedPressreported.
‘‘Duringthecall,thetwoleadersdiscussedarangeofissuesincludingthethreatsandchallenges
facingtheUnitedStatesandRussia,strategiceconomicissues,andthehistoricalUS-Russia
relationshipthatdatesbackover200years,’’itsaid.
Initsstatementonthephonecall,theKremlinaddedthatbothPutinandTrumpagreedthattheUSRussiantiesarein‘‘extremelyunsatisfactory’’conditionnow.
‘‘Theyspokeforactivejointworktonormalizetiesandengageinconstructivecooperationona
broadrangeofissues,’’itsaid,addingthatPutinandTrumpemphasizedtheneedtodeveloptrade
andeconomiccooperationtogiveastrongbasistoUS-Russiarelations.
PutinandTrumpalsoagreedontheneedtocombineeffortsinthefightagainsttheirNo.1enemy—
‘‘internationalterrorismandextremism’’—anddiscussedthesettlementoftheSyriancrisisinthat
context,accordingtotheKremlin.
ItsaidthatPutinandTrumpagreedtocontinuephonecontactsandtoplanapersonalmeetinginthe
future.
TrumpsaidduringthepresidentialcampaignthathewantstobefriendswithRussiaandjoinforces
inthefightagainsttheIslamicState,yetheoutlinedfewspecificsastohowhewouldgoaboutit.
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2NC/1NRAT#4—FixToughIssuesFirst
Theysay__________________________________________________,but
[GIVE:05SUMMARYOFOPPONENT’SSINGLEARGUMENT]
1.Extendour
evidence.
[PUTINYOURAUTHOR’SNAME]
It’smuchbetterthantheir
evidencebecause:
[PUTINTHEIRAUTHOR’SNAME]
[CIRCLEONEORMOREOFTHEFOLLOWINGOPTIONS]:
(it’snewer)
(theauthorismorequalified) (ithasmorefacts)
(theirevidenceisnotlogical/contradictsitself) (historyprovesittobetrue)
(theirevidencehasnofacts)(Theirauthorisbiased)(ittakesintoaccounttheirargument)
(
)(theirevidencesupportsourargument)
[WRITEINYOUROWN!]
[EXPLAINHOWYOUROPTIONISTRUEBELOW]
______________________________________________________________________________
______________________________________________________________________________
______________________________________________________________________________
[EXPLAINWHYYOUROPTIONMATTERSBELOW]
andthisreasonmattersbecause:
______________________________________________________________________________
______________________________________________________________________________
______________________________________________________________________________
______________________________________________________________________________
______________________________________________________________________________
2 DiplomaticCapitalislimited—addingotherissuesmakesdoingboth
impossible
ANDERSONANDGREWELL,2001[Terry,SeniorfellowatHooverInstitute;andBishop,Researchassociate@Political
EconomyResearchCenter;“ItIsn'tEasyBeingGreen:EnvironmentalPolicyImplicationsforForeignPolicy,InternationalLaw,and
Sovereignty,"ChicagoJournalofInternationalLaw,Fall2001,2Chi.J.Int'lL.427,Nexis]
Foreignpolicyisabagofgoodsthatincludesissuesfromfreetradetoarmstradingtohuman
rights.Eachnewissueinthebagweighsitdown,lesseningthefocusonotherissuesandeven
creatingconflictsbetweenissues.Increasedenvironmentalregulationscouldcausecountriesto
lessentheirfocusoninternationalthreatsofviolence,suchasthesaleofballisticmissilesor
borderconflictsbetweennations.Ascountriesmustwatchovermoreandmoreissuesarisingin
theinternationalpolicyarena,theywillstretchtheresourcesnecessarytodealwithtraditional
internationalissues.AsSchaeferwrites," Becausediplomaticcurrencyisfinite...itiscritically importantthattheUnitedStatesfocusitsdiplomaticeffortsonissuesofparamount importancetothenation. Traditionally,theseprioritieshavebeenopposinghostile
dominationofkeygeographicregions,supportingourallies,securingvitalresources,and
ensuringaccesstoforeigneconomies."40
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2NC/1NRAT#5ISISThreatExaggerated
TheysaytheISISthreatisexaggerated,but
[GIVE:05SUMMARYOFOPPONENT’SSINGLEARGUMENT]
1.Extendour
evidence.
[PUTINYOURAUTHOR’SNAME]
It’smuchbetterthantheir
evidencebecause:
[PUTINTHEIRAUTHOR’SNAME]
[CIRCLEONEORMOREOFTHEFOLLOWINGOPTIONS]:
(it’snewer)
(theauthorismorequalified) (ithasmorefacts)
(theirevidenceisnotlogical/contradictsitself) (historyprovesittobetrue)
(theirevidencehasnofacts)(Theirauthorisbiased)(ittakesintoaccounttheirargument)
(
)(theirevidencesupportsourargument)
[WRITEINYOUROWN!]
[EXPLAINHOWYOUROPTIONISTRUEBELOW]
______________________________________________________________________________
______________________________________________________________________________
______________________________________________________________________________
[EXPLAINWHYYOUROPTIONMATTERSBELOW]
andthisreasonmattersbecause:
______________________________________________________________________________
______________________________________________________________________________
______________________________________________________________________________
______________________________________________________________________________
______________________________________________________________________________
2 ISIScangetaccesstonuclearmaterialandmakehavoc
Tucker,March2016[Patrick,deputyeditorforTheFuturist.Tuckerhaswrittenaboutemerging
technologyinSlate,TheSun,MITTechnologyReview,WilsonQuarterly,TheAmericanLegion
Magazine,BBCNewsMagazine,UtneReader,3/29,
http://www.defenseone.com/technology/2016/03/nuclear-armed-isis-its-not-farfetchedexpert-say/127039/?oref=d-river]
ThemurderofasecurityguardataBelgiannuclearfacilityjusttwodaysaftertheBrussels
attacks,coupledwithevidencethatIslamicStateoperativeshadbeenwatchingresearchers
there,hasre-ignitedfearsaboutISISandnuclearterrorism.Someexperts,includingonescited
bytheNewYorkTimesandothers,dismissthepossibilitythatISIScouldmakeevenacrude
nuclearbomb.ButMatthewBunn,theco-principalinvestigatorattheProjectonManagingthe
AtomatHarvard’sBelferCenter,saysthatthethreatisquitereal.Belgiumhasseennumerous
suspiciouseventsrelatedtonuclearmaterialandfacilities.InAugust2014,aworkerattheDoel4nuclearpowerreactoropenedavalveanddrainedaturbineoflubricant.Thevalvewasn’t
nearanynuclearmaterial,buttheactcausedatleast$100millionindamageandperhapstwice
that.Later,BelgianauthoritiesdiscoveredthatamannamedIlyassBoughalabhadlefthisjobat
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Doel-4tojointheIslamicStateinSyria.(Hislastbackgroundcheckwas2009.)InNovember,
shortlyaftertheParisattacks,BelgianauthoritiesarrestedamannamedMohammedBakkali
anddiscoveredthathehadvideosurveillancefootageofanexpertatBelgian’sSCK-CENnuclear
researchfacilityinMol.ItnowseemsthatthefootagewascollectedbyIbrahimandKhalidelBakraoui,twoofthesuicidebombersintherecentBrusselsattacks.ThenonMarch24,aguard
wasfoundshotatBelgium’snationalradioactiveelementsinstituteatFleurus.ABelgian
prosecutordeclaredthedeathunrelatedtoterrorismanddeniedreportsthattheguard’s
securitypasshadbeenstolenandhastilyde-activated.NomatterwhathappenedatFleurus,
mountingevidencepointstoISIS’sintentiontocausenuclearhavoc,whetherbydamaginga nuclearfacility,spikingaconventionalbombwithradioactivematerials,orevenbuildinga fissionbombwithhighlyenricheduranium .Thefirstconcernisthatsabotagecouldcreatea
Fukushima-likeenvironmentincentralEurope.Buttopullthatoff,Bunnwritesinablogpost
obtainedpriortopublicationbyDefenseOne,militants,criminalsorterroristswouldneedalot
ofspecializedknowledgeoftheplant’ssecurityfeaturesandmeasuresandhowtodefeatthem.
ustbeforethemostrecentattackinBelgium,SCK-CENdeployedarmedtroopstoBelgium’sfour
nuclearsites.DirtyBombsButbeefingupsecurityatexplicitlynuclearsitesstillleavesalotof
radioactivemateriallesswellprotected.“Radiologicalmaterialsareavailableinmanylocations
wheretheywouldbemucheasiertosteal,inhospitals,industrialsites,andmore,”thanatthe
SCK-CENcenter,BunnwroteSuchmaterialscanallowaterroristtoturnaregular-sizeblastinto
acatastrophethatrendersanentireareaessentiallypoisonous,greatlyincreasingthecostsof
cleanupandthelong-termdangertosurvivors,firstresponders,etc.In1987,fourpeoplediedin
theBraziliancityofGoiâniafromexposuretocesiumsalt,derivedfromjunkedmedical
equipment.BunnpointstoarecentreportfromtheNuclearThreatInitiative,whichnotesthat
thematerialtomakeadirtybombexistsin“tensofthousandsofradiologicalsourceslocatedin
morethan100countriesaroundtheworld.”In2013and2014,therewere325incidentsof
radioactivematerialsbeinglost,stolen,orinsomewayunregulatedoruncontrolled,according
tothereport,whichcitesestimatesfromtheJamesMartinCenterforNonproliferation.One
materialofparticularconcernisCesium-137,orCs-137.Abyproductoffissionthat’scommonly
usedinradiationcancertherapy,“itexistsinmanyplacesmuchlesswellprotectedthanSCKCEN,”Bunnwrites. Theultimatenightmaretakestheformofanuclearbombcomposedof highlyenricheduranium .BunnwrotethatstealinghighlyenricheduraniumfromSCK-CEN
wouldhavebeenverydifficultfortheBrusselssuicidebombers.Andyet,hewrote,“TheTimes
storylargelydismissed–wrongly,inmyview–theideathattheHEUatSCK-CENmighthave
beentheterrorists’ultimateobjective,sayingthattheideathatterroristscouldgetsuch
materialandmakeacrudenuclearbomb‘seemsfar-fetchedtomanyexperts.’”Citingarecent
BelferCenterreport,hewrote,“repeatedgovernmentstudies,intheUnitedStatesand
elsewhere,haveconcludedthatthisisnotfar-fetched.”Onekeypassageinthereportoffered
thisinsight,thataccordingtotheInternationalAtomicEnergyAgency,13incidentsofthe
“illegalpossession,sale,ormovement”ofhighlyenricheduraniumoccurredbetween19932014.Noneofthoseinvolvedmaterialoverakilogram,notnearlyenoughtobuildanuclear
bomb.But“Incidentsinvolvingattemptstosellnuclearorotherradioactivematerialindicate
thatthereisaperceiveddemandforsuchmaterial.Thenumberofsuccessfultransactionsisnot
knownandthereforeitisdifficulttoaccuratelycharacterizean‘illicitnuclearmarket.’”It’shard
totellhowsuccessfulanassaultonafacilitylikeSCK-CENwouldbeifattemptedbytwolone
gunmen,eveniftheyhadkidnappedanexpert.ButISIS’sattractiontonuclearmaterial,and
perhapsevenanuclearbomb,seemstobegrowing.
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3 EvenifISIScan’tgetnuclearweaponstheSyrianconflictkills440people
aday—thishumanitariancrisis100%probableandmustbestopped
VoxWorldNews,February2016[Majorglobalnewsoutlet,“Syria'sceasefire:whatit
meansanddoesn't”,February11,
http://www.vox.com/2016/2/11/10975722/syria-ceasefire-munich]
TheSyrianwar,itisimportanttoremember,primarilymattersforthevastandterriblehuman
sufferingitcauses.Theviolencehaskilledanestimated470,000people,or2percentofthe
population.Thatnumberjustayearandahalfagowas250,000,meaning about440people dieeveryday. Beyondthat,Syrianssuffermassdisplacementandfaceextremepoverty,
diseaseoutbreaks,andhunger.ThecityofAleppoisfacingpotentialmassstarvationundera
siegebyAssadregimeforces.Thisisnotgoingtoendtheworld'sworstongoingwar,
substantiallyalleviatetheword'sworsthumanitariancrisis,orchangethefundamentalcalculus
bywhichthewarisastalematelikelydoomedtolastyears.Butjustasingledayofexpanded
humanitarianaccessorofceasefireisthusawelcomereprieveforSyrians.Itisnotpeace,andit
isnotjustice,butit'ssomething.
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2NC/1NRAT#6—CaseOutweighs
A.
B.
C.
D.
Magnitude:Ourimpactisbiggerthantheirimpactbecause:
________________________________________________________________________
________________________________________________________________________
________________________________________________________________________
Timeframe:Ourimpactisfasterthantheirimpactbecause:
________________________________________________________________________
________________________________________________________________________
________________________________________________________________________
Probability:Ourimpactismorelikelytohappenbecause:
________________________________________________________________________
________________________________________________________________________
________________________________________________________________________
TurnstheCase:Ourimpactcausestheirimpactbecause:
________________________________________________________________________
________________________________________________________________________
________________________________________________________________________
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CapitalDisadvantage(January2017
Update)
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1 NOINTERNALLINK:WECAN’TPREDICTANYTHINGABOUTTRUMP’SFOREIGNPOLICY
BECAUSEHISCABINETISDIVIDEDANDTRUMPHASNOKNOWLEDGETODIRECT
DIPLOMACY
SLATE,DECEMBER23RD,2016(prominentonlinenewsmagazine,FredKaplan,
http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/war_stories/2016/12/trump_s_inexperience_and_a_squabbling_cabinet_could_l
eave_u_s_foreign_policy.html)
JudgingfromDonaldTrump’sCabinetpicks,thepresident-elect’sforeignpolicyislikelytobein
shambles—theproductmoreofinternecinesquabbles(andwhowinswhichones)thanofanythoughtthroughstrategy.
Forthisreason,manyofhisactualpolicies,oreventhewaythey’reformed,areatthispoint
unpredictable.Becausehisnationalsecurityteamseemsill-suitedtosettlingsquabbles,many
decisions—probablymorethanthepresident-electimagines—willhavetobemadebyTrumphimself.
AndbecauseTrumphasnogroundingwhatsoeverinthesesortsofissues,thatmakesthecourseofthe
comingyearsmoreunpredictablestill.
Mostadministrations,especiallyinthebeginning,arerackedwithinternecinedisputes,reflectingthe
institutionalinterestsofthedepartmentsofState,Defense,Treasury,andsoforth.Butthelikelydisputes
intheTrumpadministrationwillberootedlessinbureaucraticpoliticsthaninthestrongpersonalitiesof
theCabinetsecretaries,basedontheirwell-rewardedlife-experiences.
Trump’ssecretarieshavenoallegiancestothedepartmentsthey’llberunning.(Hispickassecretaryof
state,RexTillerson,hascontemptfortheFoggyBottompinstripeswhotriedtoblockhisgrandschemes
asExxonMobil’sCEO.)Globalmoguls,three-andfour-stargenerals,hedge-fundbillionaires—quiteapart
fromtheirrespectivemeritsorlackthereof,thesepersonalitytypesarenotaccustomedtodeferenceon
mattersinwhichtheyhavestronginterestortheslightestpretenseofknowledge.
2.NOLINK–ChinawillnotdistractTrumpfromfocusingontheMiddleEast
withRussiaandhewilldefertoRussiandiplomacyinSyria.
MACLEOD,DEC15TH,2016[Alasdair,stockbrokersince1970,consultantatmanyoffshoreinstitutions,andwasan
ExecutiveDirectoratanoffshorebankinGuernseyandJersey,“Evenbeforehetakesoffice,President-electTrumpisturning
theworldupsidedown,”https://wealth.goldmoney.com/research/goldmoney-insights/trump-russia-and-china]
Ratherlikesuper-tankersthatneedsevenmilestostop,regionalpowersarealsofindingithardto
adjusttothesenewrealities,butadjusttheysurelywill.EuropeangovernmentsandNATOmembers
willhavehadbackgroundbriefings,butthenormalchannelsforthis,theCIA,theUSMilitaryadvisers
andAmericandiplomatsarenotonTrump’spage,soconfusionstillreigns.Butonethingisbecoming
clear:Trumpwillnotbedivertedfromageneralpolicyofdétenteandde-escalationofmilitary
presenceinbothEuropeandtheMiddleEast.
Theprocessofdétenteisreasonablypredictable.AsummitwithRussiatoagreestrategicarmslimitations
(calledSALT3perhaps?)isaprovenpathtofollow.Itshouldbeastep-by-stepprocessscheduledover
fiveortenyears,withpre-agreedconditionsdesignedtosatisfyconcernsintheBalticStatesand
PolandthatRussiamightattemptborder-creep.FortheirparttheRussiansmustagreeUkraine’s
independence(exceptingtheCrimea,DonetskandLuhansk,whichshouldbeformallycededto
Russia).UkraineandBelorussiawillbeindependentbufferstatesbetweenRussiaandtheEuropean
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Union.UnderaSALT3bothNATOandRussiawillagreetoaphasedwithdrawofallmilitary
hardwareotherthanlimitedgroundtroopsandtheirassociatedequipment.
IntheMiddleEast,AmericawillconcedethatSyriaremainsintheRussiansphereofinfluence,
andwillwithdrawallsupportforrebelorganisations.Thisisnomorethanreality.China,
doubtless,willhelpinthephysicalreconstructionofSyriainduecourse.Agreementwillbe
soughtastothemeansofdestroyingDaesh.Beyondthat,areducedAmericanpresenceinthe
regionwillcontinuetoensuresecurityforIsraelandtheGulfstates.Already,theBritishhave
announcedtheywillstepuptheirpresenceintheregion,whichshouldalsocontributeto
regionalstability.
IranshouldbepersuadedbyRussiatotakeamoreconstructiveapproachtopeacewithSunnistates,such
asSaudiArabia,andtowardsIsrael.Thiscouldbedifficult,butshouldbepossible,givenIranhasbecome
considerablymoremoderatesincethedaysofAhmadinejad,particularlyiftherighttonefromAmericais
forthcoming.Iran’sdaysofhidingfromwesternsanctionsbehindRussiawillbeover,andshouldbe
replacedwithanemphasisontrade.AndSaudiArabiacannolongeraffordtowagewars,suchasthatin
theYemen,contributingtoalessbelligerentoutcome.
Allthisispractical,possibleandpredictable.BehindthechangeingeopoliticalrealityfortheMiddle
EastisthefactthatPeakOilisbeingpushedfurtherintothefuture.Notonlyarelargenewoilfields
stillbeingdiscovered(suchastheKashaganFieldinthenorthoftheCaspianSea),butmodern
technologyisbringingotherformsofecologically-friendlyenergysuppliesonstreamandhigher
priceswillunlockshaleoilsupplies.ThestrategicimportanceoftheMiddleEasthastherefore
declined,particularlysinceinsignificantquantitiesofoilfromtheregiongotoAmerica.And
withthatdeclinegoeslessneedforgeostrategicinterventionbytheUS.
ForthefirsttimesincetheSixDayWarin1967thereisarealisticpossibilityofstabilityinthe
area,assumingthesuper-powerstakeaconstructiveapproachtodétente,andarewillingtojointly
policetheregion.
3.DIPLOMACYFAILS-THEUSCAN’TRELYONRUSSIAASAPARTNERINFIGHTINGISIS
INSYRIA
FOREIGNPOLICY,NOVEMBER17TH,2016(prominentpublicationonforeignaffairs,
http://foreignpolicy.com/2016/11/17/trumps-syria-strategy-would-be-a-disaster)
Meanwhile,Trump’ssuggestiontopartnerwithRussiain“smashing”theIslamicStateislittlemore
thananonsequitur,givenRussia’snear-consistentfocusoneverythingbutthejihadigroup.According
torecentdatamonitoringairstrikesacrossSyria,only8percentofareastargetedbyRussianairstrikes
betweenOct.12andNov.8belongedtotheIslamicState.Withonlyonebriefexception—thecapture
ofPalmyrafromthejihadigroupduringaninternationallyimposedcessationofhostilities—the
Kremlin’sfocushasunequivocallyandconsistentlybeenonfightingSyria’smainstreamopposition,not
theIslamicState.
4 LinkTurn:VegetablesFirst!IfChinaissochallenging,Obamaneedsto
getthatoffhisplatefirst.Thiswillbeseenasahugevictoryandhecan
nowdirectlyfocusontheMiddleEast.
5.Noimpact:theISISthreatisexaggerated—MANYreasons
Mueller,2015[John,seniorfellowattheCatoInstitutethinktank,“WhytheISISthreatistotallyoverblown”,July23,
http://theweek.com/articles/567674/why-isis-threat-totally-overblown]
OutrageatthetacticsofISISiscertainlyjustified.Butfearsthatitpresentsaworldwidesecuritythreatare
not.Itsnumbersaresmall,andithasdifferentiateditselffromalQaedainthatitdoesnotseekprimarily
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2ACAFFAnswers
totargetthe"farenemy,"preferringinsteadtocarveoutastateintheMiddleEastforitself,mostlykilling
fellowMuslimswhostandinitsway.Intheprocess,ithasalienatedvirtuallyalloutsidesupportand,by
holdingterritory,presentsanobviousandcleartargettomilitaryopponents.Ayearago,themainfear
wasthatforeignmilitantswhohadgonetofightwithISISwouldbetrainedandthensentbacktodo
damageintheirowncountries.However,therehasbeenscarcelyanyofthat.Inpart,thisisbecause,as
DanielBymanandJeremyShapirohavedetailedinaBrookingsInstitutionreport,foreignfighterstendto
bekilledearly(theyarecommonpicksforsuicidemissions);oftenbecomedisillusioned,especiallybyinfightingintheranks;anddonotreceivemuchinthewayofusefultrainingforterroristexercisesback
home.ItmightalsobeaddedthatISISvideosexultantlyshowforeignfightersburningtheirpassportsto
demonstratetheirterminalcommitmenttothecause—hardlyagoodideaiftheywanttoreturn.InMay
2015,anaudiomessageapparentlyfromtheleaderofISISexhortedMuslimseithertojointheISISranks
intheMiddleEastortofightathome"whereverthatmaybe."Therewasnothingabouttrainingpeople
toreturnhometowreakhavoc.Morerecently,thefocusoffearhasshiftedfrompotentialreturneesto
potentialhomegrownterroristswhomightbeinspiredbyISIS'spropagandaorexample.However,ISIS
couldcontinuetobeaninspirationevenifitwasweakenedordestroyed.And,asterrorismspecialistMax
Abrahmsnotes,"lonewolveshavecarriedoutjusttwoofthe1,900mostdeadlyterroristincidentsover
thelastfourdecades."TherehasalsobeenatrendyconcernaboutthewayISISusessocialmedia.
However,asBymanandShapiroandothershavepointedout,thefoolishwillingnessofwould-be
terroriststospilltheiraspirationsandtheiroftenchildishfantasiesonsocialmediahasbeen,onbalance,
muchtotheadvantageofthepoliceseekingtotrackthem.However,ISIS'ssavvyuseofsocialmediaand
itsbrutalityhavehadamajorimpactontwoimportantAmericangroups:publicofficialsandthemedia.
Sen.DianneFeinsteinhasinsisted,"ThethreatISISposescannotbeoverstated"—effectivelyproclaiming
hyperboleonthesubjecttobeimpossible,ascolumnistDanFroomkinobserves.Equallyinspired,Sen.Jim
Inhofe,bornbeforeWorldWarII,hasextravagantlyclaimedthat"we'reinthemostdangerousposition
we'veeverbeenin"andthatISISis"rapidlydevelopingamethodofblowingupamajorU.S.city."Andon
MichaelSmerconish'sCNNprogramlastweekend,formerHomelandSecuritychiefTomRidgeissuedthe
evidence-freesuggestionthattherecenttragickillingsinChattanoogafolloweda"directive"fromISIS.
Themediahavegenerallybeenmorecarefulandresponsibleaboutsuchextrapolations,andsometimes
articlesappearnotingthatsomeAmericanandforeignintelligenceofficialsthinkthat"theactualdanger
posedbyISIShasbeendistortedinhoursoftelevisionpunditryandalarmiststatementsbypoliticians."
Butthemediaremaincannyaboutweavingaudience-grabbingreferencesaboutthearrestinglydiabolical
ISISintoanystoryaboutterrorism.
6.ImpactCalculus:
A. Magnitude:Ourimpactisbiggerthantheirimpactbecause:
________________________________________________________________________
________________________________________________________________________
________________________________________________________________________
B. Timeframe:Ourimpactisfasterthantheirimpactbecause:
________________________________________________________________________
________________________________________________________________________
________________________________________________________________________
C. Probability:Ourimpactismorelikelytohappenbecause:
________________________________________________________________________
________________________________________________________________________
________________________________________________________________________
D. TurnstheDA:Ourimpactcausestheirimpactbecause:
________________________________________________________________________
________________________________________________________________________
________________________________________________________________________
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1ARExtensionsto2AC#1:Can’tPredictTrump
ForeignPolicy
1.EXTENDOURSLATEEVIDENCE–TRUMP’SCABINETISDIVIDEDANDTRUMP’S
ADMINISTRATIONHASNOFOREIGNPOLICYTOSPEAKOF.PREDICTIONSAREUSELESS.
2.NOINTERNALLINK:TRUMPHASNODIPLOMATICCAPITALANDHIS“DEAL-MAKER”
APPROACHTOFOREIGNPOLICYREQUIRESBUILDINGMANYNEWRELATIONSHIPSHIS
INEXPERIENCEDTEAMDOESN’THAVE
SLATE,DECEMBER23RD,2016(FredKaplan,prominentonlinenewsmagazine,
http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/war_stories/2016/12/trump_s_inexperience_and_a_squabbling_cabinet_could_l
eave_u_s_foreign_policy.html)
Trump’sforeignpolicyteamhasnosuchclearordersordirection.EvenTrump’sboldslogans
don’teasilytranslateintoaction.Forinstance,“BombtheshitoutofISIS!”Militaryofficerscan
produceplansandchartsconsistentwiththatorder—buttheywillalsoaskquestions(aswill
Mattis,whoisfarmoresophisticatedthanhis“MadDog”nicknamesuggests):Whatarethe
goalsofthisoperation(todestroyISISortodegradeit,overhowlongaperiodoftime)?What
areacceptablerisksofciviliandamage?Whatisthelong-termplanafterthebombing?The
staffscanquantifytherisks;Mattisandtheotherscanofferrecommendations.ButTrumpwill
havetodecide.
Thesameistruewithhismandateforforeigneconomicpolicy:“Bringfactoryjobsbackhome!
RenegotiatetradedealsthathurtAmericanjobs!Penalizecountriesthatrefusetodoso!”Again,
therewillbequestions:Whatkindsoffactoryjobs?Atwhatcostin,say,consumerprices?
(ApplecouldbuildiPhonesinAmerica,buthowmuchmorewillcustomerspayforthem?)In
thesenewtradedeals,whatarewewillingtogivetheothersidesinexchangefortheirgivingus
more?Thesearemattersfortradenegotiatorstofine-tune—andlet’sstipulatethatTrumphires
reallyskillednegotiators.Butthebottomlinesofthesebargainingsessionshavetobedecided,
aheadoftime,byTrump.
Trump’swholeapproachtodeal-making(andTillerson’stoo)isbilateral—nationtonation,
leadertoleader,onenationandleaderatatime.Thismaybefineforreal-estatetransactions
andoil-drillingcontracts,butit’susuallynotfinefordealsconcerningthebroadinterestsof
AmericansecurityortheAmericaneconomy.Givenourpositionasamaritimepowerwith
globalinterests,weusuallydobetternegotiatingmultilateraltreatieswithallies—which
requiresanentirelydifferentapproachthatseeksconsensusmorethanprofit-maximizing.Some
peopleinTrump’sCabinetunderstandthisassecondnature(forinstance,Mattis);othersdon’t
(forinstance,Tillerson,thoughhecouldlearn—thequestioniswhetherhe’llwantto).
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1ARExtensionsto2AC#3:DiplomacyFails
1.Extendour2ACForeignPolicyevidence.RussiahasdonenothingtofightISIS
anddoesn’twantto–itonlywantstopropupSyria’sgovernmenttomaintain
influence.
2.NOINTERNALLINK:IT’SIMPOSSIBLETOPREDICTSECRETARYOFSTATENOMINEE
TILLERSON’SABILITYTONEGOTIATEWITHRUSSIAONSYRIAFORTWOREASONS–FIRST,HE
MIGHTNOTEVENBEAPPROVEDBYCONGRESS.SECOND,HEHASNOEXPERIENCEANDDOESN’T
SHARETRUMP’SVISION
SLATE,DECEMBER13TH,2016(prominentonlinenewsmagazine,FredKaplan,
http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/war_stories/2016/12/rex_tillerson_secretary_of_state_what_s_good_for_exxon_
is_bad_for_the_country.html)
Tillerson’sunbridledinternationalismmayserveasacountertothenativistprotectionismof
Trump’srhetoric,butitmaygotoofartheotherway.Cultivatingafeelfornationalinterests
wouldrequirenotonlyanextraordinarilyagilemindbutalso—asafirststep—somenotionofwhat
“nationalinterests”are,aconceptthathasrarelyweighedonthemindofTillerson’sboss-to-be,
either.
Tillersonisadealmaker,andTrumplikesdealmakers.Butthekeyquestionsare:Whatkindof
deals—andmadeinwhoseinterest?Tillersonhasmadebigdealswithdozensofleadersaroundthe
world,andTrumphassaidhe’simpressedthatTillerson“knowsalltheplayers.”Butit’safallacyto
thinkthatknowingtheplayersgetsyouthedeal,muchlesstherightkindofdeal.
Trumpalsorecentlysaidthathisson-in-law,JaredKushner,couldnegotiatepeacebetweenIsrael
andthePalestiniansbecausehe“knowstheplayers”intheregion.IsuspectTrumpreallybelieves
there’saconnection(leavingasidethefactthatKushnerisanunknownintheregion),butthis
revealsonlyhowlittleTrumpknowsaboutMiddleEasternpolitics,whereeverybodyknows
everybody,yetnopeaceisinsight.It’struethatknowingtheplayers—knowingtherightpersonto
callandknowingsomethingaboutthatperson,havingdonebusinesswiththatperson—canopen
doorsandgettalksgoing.Butfamiliaritydoesn’tbreedthedeal.Notwodiplomatsontheplanet
haveacloserpersonalrelationshipthanSecretaryofStateJohnKerryandRussianForeignMinister
SergeiLavrov.Yetthetwoofthemcan’tmakeadealonSyriabecausetheirtwocountries,much
lesstheothercountriesintheregion,haveconflictinginterests.Eveninsuccesses,theirfriendship
wasonlypartofthestory:Itprobablydidhelpsmooththingsintheprolongedtalksthatledtothe
Irannucleardeal,butitdidsoonlybecausetheUnitedStatesandRussiasharedalong-standing
interestinnuclearnonproliferation.
Trumpnowfacesarealchallengeingettingthisnominationthrough.TheSenateForeignRelations
Committee,whichmustconfirmtheappointmentbymajorityvotebeforeitevengoestothefloor,
isstackedwithRussiahawkswhoareverysuspiciousofTillerson’sclosetiestoPutinandhis
oppositiontosanctions—especiallynow,intheaftermathoftheCIA’sassessmentthatRussia’s
“senior-mostofficials”coordinatedthehackingandleakingoftheDemocraticNationalCommittee’s
emailinordertohelphandtheelectiontoTrump,whoseownfondviewsofPutinarewell-known
anddisturbing.
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Vocabulary
Relations:Thinkrelationship.ThisDAisbasedontheUSandChinabeing
cooperative.Ifrelationsarehigh,thatmeansthattheUSandChinawillwork
togetheronpressingproblems.Iftheyarelow,thenthecountriesarelesslikely
tofixissues.
NuclearProliferation:Proliferationmeanstospreadsonuclearproliferationis
thespreadofnuclearweapons.Thismeansthatmorecountriesgetaccesstofull
weaponsandnuclearmaterialsthusincreasingtheriskofnuclearuse.
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People’sLiberationArmy(PLA):TheChinesearmedforces.Basicallythe
accumulationofalltheChinesemilitary.Itisthelargestmilitaryintheworld.
SouthChinaSeas(SCS):PartofthePacificOceanjustsoutheastofChina.Itis
nearTaiwan,thePhilippines,Cambodia,andVietnam.Agreatdealofgoodsare
movedthroughtheareaandthere’ssupposedlyalotofoilintheseabed.There
areseriousdisputesaboutwhoactuallyownsitandthusmanycountriesare
fightingoverit.
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SenkakuIslands:IslandsintheEastChinaseathathavenoonelivingonthem.
TheUSgavethemtoJapan,butChinadisagrees.Theseislands,liketheSouth
ChinaSea,areareaswherefightingmighterupt.
XiJinping(Shejin-PING):GeneralSecretaryoftheCommunistPartyofChina,the
PresidentofthePeople'sRepublicofChina,andtheChairmanofChina'sCentral
MilitaryCommission.He’slikeObama,butevenmorepowerfulsinceChinadoes
nothavethesamepoliticalstructureastheUS.Essentially,he’sthepresidentof
China.
ChineseCommunistParty(CCP):MainpoliticalpartyofChina.Theyhavelarge
controlovertheentirecountryandbelieveinastronggovernmentwithcontrol
overthepeopleandeconomy.XiJinpingistheleaderoftheparty.
AT=AnswersTo
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1NCShells
1NC-ChinaRelationsDisadvantageShell
A.UNIQUENESS:CHINAISGIVINGTRUMPAGRACEPERIODNOW,BUTIT’SSHORT-LIVED:WEAREATA
KEYPOINTINRELATIONS
NEWYORKTIMES,DECEMBER19TH,2016
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/12/19/world/asia/-china-donald-trump-power.html
PressuresonMr.XiarelikelytogrowifMr.TrumpcontinuespubliclyexcoriatingChina,
especiallyonterritorialissues,likeTaiwanandtheSouthChinaSea,wherepublicsentiment
oftenfavorsatoughresponse.
“Chinatendstogivethenewleaderagraceperiodtosettlein,”Ms.Weisssaid,citingher
researchaboutChina’sresponsetoelectionsandnewleaders.“Trumphasmovedmorequickly
tochallengeanddefyChinathanotherpresident-elects,however,sothegraceperiodcould
endquickly.”
A. <Insertplan-specificlink>
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B. Internal-Link:MaintaininggoodrelationswithChinaiscriticaltoresolve
almosteverystatusquoimpactincludingnuclearproliferation
Gross,2013(DonaldseniorassociateatthePacificForumoftheCenterforStrategicandInternationalStudies(CSIS),former
StateDepartmentofficial),3/19http://www.huffingtonpost.com/donald-gross/us-chinarelations_b_2891183.html?view=print&comm_ref=false)
BetterrelationswithChinawouldsupportwide-reachingpoliticalreformandliberalization.Theywould
undercuttherepressiveinternalforcesthatlegitimizeone-partyauthoritarianruleasameansof
protectingthecountryagainstforeignmilitarythreats,particularlyfromtheUnitedStates.Inthefieldof
nationalsecurity,throughanongoingprocessofmutualthreatreduction,theUnitedStatescanensure
thatChinaisafuturepartnerandnotadangertotheinterestsofAmericaanditsallies.Thegreatest
benefitisthat theU.S.wouldavoidamilitaryconflictfortheforeseeablefuture withacountryitnow
considersamajorpotentialadversary.OthercriticalsecuritybenefitstotheUnitedStatesanditsallies
include:•SignificantlyreducingChina'scurrentandpotentialmilitarythreattoTaiwan,thussecuring
Taiwan'sdemocracy;•UtilizingChina'sconsiderableinfluencewithNorthKoreatocurbPyongyang's
nuclearweaponandmissiledevelopmentprograms;•IncreasingsecuritycooperationwithChinaonboth
regionalandglobalissues,allowingtheUnitedStatestoleverageChinesecapabilitiesformeeting
commontransnationalthreatssuchasclimatechange,energyinsecurity,pandemicdisease,
cyberterrorismandnuclearproliferation;•CurtailingcyberattacksbytheChinesemilitaryonU.S.-based
targetsaswellasenforcingstringentmeasuresagainstprivateindividualsandgroupsinChinathatengage
incyber-hacking;•HavingChinasubmititsmaritimedisputesintheSouthandEastChinaSeastoan
independentinternationaljudicialbodytopreventfesteringconflictsoveruninhabitedislandsandenergy
resourcesfromescalatingtoarmedconflict;and•Reducingthescope,scale,andtempoofChina's
militarymodernizationprogramsbydiscreditingtherationaleforconductingafocusedanti-U.S.buildup,
especiallysincethecountryhassomanyotherpressingmaterialneeds.Inhissecondterm,President
ObamashouldseizetheopportunitycreatedbytheemergenceofChina'snewleadershiptostabilizeU.S.Chinarelations--bypursuingadiplomaticstrategythatminimizesconflict,achievesgreatermutually
beneficialSino-Americancooperation,andsignificantlyexpandstradeandinvestmentbetweenthetwo
countries.ThisapproachwouldenabletheUnitedStatestomaintainaneffectivemilitarypresenceinthe
AsiaPacificincomingyears,despitedefensebudgetcuts,whilealsorebalancingeconomicandpolitical
resourcestotheregiontoensurestabilityandmutualprosperity.
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1NC-ChinaRelationsDisadvantageHuman
RightsLink
Theaffirmative’sinsistenceonpressuringChinatoadopthumanrightspolicies
backfires-leadstoincreasedhostilityandcollapsestheCCP
Wyne,2013Ali,contributinganalystatWikistratandaglobalfellowattheProjectfortheStudyofthe21stCentury.“Some
ThoughtsontheEthicsofChina’sRise.”8/14http://www.carnegiecouncil.org/publications/ethics_online/0084
Themorecontentioustopic,ofcourse,istherolethathumanrightsshouldplayinU.S.-China
relations.WhiletheUnitedStatesshouldneitherhesitatetoarticulateitsdifferenceswithChina
onissuesofhumanrights,norrefrainfromencouragingthosetrendswithinChinathatare
promotinggreatercitizenempowerment,itshouldnoturgeChinatodemocratizeorcondition
itsinteractionswithChinaontheleadership'sacceptanceofcoreAmericanvalues.Acountry
thatisnotyet250yearsoldshouldappreciatethepossibilitythatacountryseveralmillenniaold
mayhaveitsownstrainofexceptionalism.Furthermore,attemptstodemocratizeChinacould
backfire.OneoftheforemostChinawatchers,formerprimeministerofSingaporeLeeKuan
Yew,declaresthatitwillnot"becomealiberaldemocracy;ifitdid,itwouldcollapse."Whilethe
ChineseCommunistParty(CCP)iswillingtoexperimentwithdemocraticreformsin"villagesand
smalltowns,"heexplains,itfearsthatlarge-scaledemocratization"wouldleadtoalossof
controlbythecenterovertheprovinces,like[during]thewarlordyearsofthe1920sand'30s.3
WhateverchallengesanincreasinglycapableandassertiveChinamightpose,aweakChinain
thethroesofchaoswouldbeevenmoreproblematic,especiallynowthatitsgrowthisvitalto
thehealthoftheglobaleconomy.ItisChina'songoingintegrationintotheinternationalsystem
andattendantexposuretoinformationtechnologythatholdthegreatestpromisefor
improvementstoitshumanrightsclimate.Sincethelate1970s,theCCPhasimplicitly
conditioneditsdeliveryofrapidgrowthtotheChinesepeopleontheiracquiescencetoitsrule.
Theproblemisthatcitizens'prioritiesbecomemoresophisticatedastheirday-to-daysituations
growlessexigent.Thoseindirepovertyarequitelikelytocensorthemselvesinexchangefor
food,shelter,andothernecessities.Astheyenterthemiddleclass,however,andbecomeless
preoccupiedwiththedemandsofsurvival,theynaturallythinkmoreaboutcritiquing
governmentpolicy.WithinthistransitionliesafundamentalchallengefortheCCP:thevery
bargainthatitimplementedtoforestallchallengestoitsruleisenablinggreaternumbersof
Chinesetoposesuchchallenges.Therewereonly20millionInternetusersinChinain2000;
today,therearemorethan560million.
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1NC-ChinaRelationsDisadvantage-North
KoreaLink
ChinaandNorthKoreaarestillmajortradingpartnersandallies.Theshared
borderbetweenthem,meansChinawillalwayshavetieswithNorthKorea.If
theU.S.pressuresChinatochangethisrelationship,itwillappearcoercive
CNN,March2016March31,“NorthKoreasanctions:IsChinaenforcingthem?”
http://edition.cnn.com/2016/03/31/asia/china-north-korea-border-dandong/
Thecaravanoftrucksrumblesacrossthenarrowbridge,inchingalongastheywaittheirturnto
enterNorthKorea.ThisisthesceneeverymorningfromthebanksoftheYaluRiver,inthe
ChinesebordercityofDandong.Thetrucks,andmorespecificallythegoodswithinthem,
representNorthKorea'seconomiclifeline.Chinaistheonlycountryleftthatiswillingtodo
significanttradewithKimJongUn'sregime.Andthatrelationshipisundermorescrutinythan
ever,sincenewsanctionsontheregimewereimplementedbytheU.N.SecurityCouncilin
March.ThesanctionsareaimedatcurbingNorthKorea'snuclearprogramfollowingan
internationaluproarafterNorthKoreaclaimedtohavetestedahydrogenbombandlong-range
missiles.ThesanctionsincludeuniversalinspectionsofallcargotoandfromNorthKorea,anda
banonbuyingNorthKoreancoalandrawmineralexportsifanyprofitsmightgotosanctioned
programs.Chinahelpeddraftthetoughernewguidelines,andsaysitwillvigorouslyimplement
them.ButChinahasbeencriticizedinthepastfornotenforcingprevioussanctions.Experts
agreethatifthesanctionsaretobeatalleffective,Chinamustupholdthemstringently. China isNorthKorea'sonlymajorally,andaccountsformorethan70%ofthecountry'stotaltrade volume .It'sinbordercitieslikeDandongthatthesesanctionswillbeenforced.OntheChinese
sideoftheborder,youcanseethesmallcustomsareasituatedjustbeforetheonlybridgethat
goesinandout,calledthe"FriendshipBridge."Alltrucktrafficpassesthroughthere,butit's
difficulttoseeifinspectionsaretakingplace.CNNcontactedtheMinistryofForeignAffairsand
provincialofficialsinLiaoning,whereDandongislocated,toaskhowinspectionswerebeing
conducted.Bothdeclinedtoprovidedetails.CNNfollowedthetruckstoaloadingyard,and
watchedasChinesegoodswereplacedonboard,readytobeshippedbackacrosstheriver.No
oneattheyardwouldspeakwithus,andasecurityguardblockedusfromfilming.TheChinese
sayinspectionsareeffective,butCNNcouldn'tindependentlyverifythat.
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1NCChinaRelationsDisadvantage-Currency
ManipulationLink
Chinawantstobeperceivedasafairtrader–theplanputsthemonblastand
makesthemfearsanctions
VoiceofAmericaNews,September20169/3SaibalDasguptahttp://www.voanews.com/a/g20china-trade/3492531.html
ChinaisspearheadingthecampaignforopennessbecauseitfearsthatChineseexporters
wouldfacestifferresistanceinWesterncountriesduetooftheriseofprotectionist
sentiments.SupportforprotectionismwasevidentduringtheBrexitdebateinBritain,andin
theongoingpresidentialraceintheUnitedStates.PartsofEurope,includingGermany,have
seenprotestsbyjoblesssteelworkers,blamingChinafortheirplight.
"Chinaisworriedaboutgrowingresistancetoitsgoodsinforeignmarkets.Butitsown
protectionismispoliticallytoocostlyforPresidentXiJinpingtoalter,"DavidKelly,headof
consultingfirmChinaPolicytoldVOA.
Chinaisanxioustostrengthenitsimageasafairtraderbecauseofaccusationsthatthe
governmentsubsidieslocalindustriestogiveChineseexportersapriceadvantageon
internationalmarkets.ItisthisimpressionthatleadstomanycountriesimposingantidumpingsanctionsonChinesegoods,whichisamajorhurdleforexportersinChina.
"ChineseleadersaremoreinterestedinconsolidatingChina’simageasacountrywhichis
credible,stableandwell-resourcedfinancially,"Kellysaid.
BeijingwantsWesternnationstoliftanti-dumpingsanctionsagainstChinesegoodsbutwould
dolittletocreatealevelplayingfieldforforeigninvestors,analystssaid.
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2NC/1NRExtensions
2NC/1NR-ChinaRelationsDisadvantage-
NorthKoreaLinkExtensions
ChinaiseconomicallydependentonNorthKorea.Thismeanstheplanwouldbeviewedas
comprisingChina’seconomicgrowth,strainingrelations
CouncilonForeignRelations,February20162/18,http://www.cfr.org/china/china-north-korearelationship/p11097
ChinaprovidesNorthKoreawithmostofitsfoodandenergysuppliesandaccountsformore
than70percentofNorthKorea'stotaltradevolume(PDF).“ChinaiscurrentlyNorthKorea’s
onlyeconomicbackerofanyimportance,”writesNicholasEberstadt,seniorfellowatthe
AmericanEnterpriseInstitute.InSeptember2015,thetwocountriesopenedabulkcargoand
containershippingroutetoboostNorthKorea’sexportofcoaltoChinaandChinaestablished
ahigh-speedrailroutebetweentheChinesebordercityofDandongandShenyang,the
provincialcapitalofChina’snortheasternLiaoningprovince.InOctober2015,theGuomenwan
bordertradezoneopenedinDandongwiththeintentionofboostingbilateraleconomic
linkages,muchliketheRasoneconomiczoneandtheSinujiuspecialadministrativezone
establishedinNorthKoreaintheearly1990sand2002,respectively.Dandongisacriticalhub
fortrade,investment,andtourismforthetwoneighbors—exchangeswithNorthKoreamake
up40percentofthecity’stotaltrade.DuetoNorthKorea’sincreasingisolation,itsdependence
onChinacontinuestogrow,asindicatedbythesignificanttradeimbalancebetweenthetwo
countries.SomeexpertsseethetradedeficitasanindirectChinesesubsidy,giventhatNorth
Koreacannotfinanceitstradedeficitthroughborrowing.
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2NC/1NRChinaRelationsDisadvantageAT:#1
Non-Unique:RelationsBadNow
TheysayRelationsarebadalready,but
[GIVE:05SUMMARYOFOPPONENT’SSINGLEARGUMENT]
1.ExtendourNEWYORKTIMES
evidence.
[PUTINYOURAUTHOR’SNAME]
It’smuchbetterthantheirevidencebecause:
[PUTINTHEIRAUTHOR’SNAME]
[CIRCLEONEORMOREOFTHEFOLLOWINGOPTIONS]:
(it’snewer)
(theauthorismorequalified) (ithasmorefacts)
(theirevidenceisnotlogical/contradictsitself) (historyprovesittobetrue)
(theirevidencehasnofacts)(Theirauthorisbiased)(ittakesintoaccounttheirargument)
(
)(theirevidencesupportsourargument)
[WRITEINYOUROWN!]
[EXPLAINHOWYOUROPTIONISTRUEBELOW]
___It’smostrecent,fromDecember19th,andaccountsfortheirTaiwanargument.__________
[EXPLAINWHYYOUROPTIONMATTERSBELOW]
andthisreasonmattersbecause:
__ItsaysthatChinaisstillgivingagraceperiodevenaftertheTaiwanphonecall,buttheplan
pushesthemtoofar,causingourImpact,acollapseofallcooperationwithChinaonissueslike
non-proliferation_______________________________________________________________
1. [ChoosewhatYOUfeelaretheBEST1or2piecesofUNIQUENESSevidenceinthenext
threepagestoreadinthe2NCor1NRtoextendthisargumenteffectively]
Trumpmadeotherpositivemovesthatkeeprelationsvulnerablebutstableuntil
Chinaseeswhathispolicywillbe–alleyesareontheAFFPLAN
EDWARDSANDLAVINDER,DECEMBER16TH,2016
[WillEdwards(aninternationalproduceratTheCipherBrief)&KaitlinLavinder(areporteratTheCipherBrief).
https://www.thecipherbrief.com/article/trump-russia-and-cia-allies-and-adversaries-confused-1091MYY]
RelationswithChina,theUnitedStates’largestgeopoliticalcompetitor,arealreadyonshaky
grounds,followingTrump’sphoneconversationwiththePresidentofTaiwan,hisquestioningof
the“OneChina”policy,andhiscriticismofChina’seconomicsystem.Butontheotherhand,
TrumpappointedChina-friendlyTerryBranstad,theGovernorofIowa,asU.S.Ambassadorto
China.ThismixtureofpositiveandnegativedevelopmentsintheU.S.-Chinarelationshipfuels
uncertaintyaboutfuturerelations.WithTrumpshowinglittlefaithinhisIntelligenceCommunity,
ChinamayfinditbesttowaitandseehowofficialU.S.policyunfolds.
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Trump’sTaiwanphonecallwasbad,butChina’sgoingtogivehimchancetomakea
nextmove.TheAFFPLANistheWRONGmove
WEISBROT,DECEMBER23RD,2016
[MarkWeisbrot(aco-directoroftheCenterforEconomicandPolicyResearch.SeattleTimes
http://www.seattletimes.com/opinion/even-before-taking-office-trump-has-made-a-mess-with-china/MYY]
PRESIDENT-electDonaldTrump’sphonecallearlierthismonthwithPresidentTsaiIng-wenof
TaiwansentshockwavesthroughoutChinaandmuchoftheworld.Fornearlyfourdecades,it
hasbeenWashington’sofficialpolicytodiplomaticallyrecognizeonlyChinaandnotTaiwan,an
islandthemainlandconsidersabreakawayprovince.Inreality,though,thecallwillbe
rememberedasoneoftheworstdiplomaticmiscalculationsofalltime.Trump’steamalso
deservesblame,asapparentlythelong-distancechatwasn’tjustanotherfoot-in-mouthTrump
momentbutwasinfactadeliberatestrategyshapedwithlobbyistinfluence.Trumphas
indicatedthatbyabandoningthispolicyand,ineffect,threateningChina,he’llbeableto
bargainforconcessionsfromtheAsianpower.AndwhiletheChinesegovernmentresponded
withsternmessaging,itsactionshavebeenrelativelysubdued.Butdon’tbefooled:Chinese
leadersaregivingTrumpachancetochartadifferentcoursebeforehetakesofficeJan.20.
BullyingmayhavehelpedTrumpinhisrealestatecareerbutitisnotgoingtomoveChina.The
Chineseeconomyisnowbiggerthanoursonapurchasingpowerparitybasis,whichiswhat
matterswhenwearetalkingaboutsuchthingsasmilitaryexpenditures.ThecostofaChinesemadeplaneoraChinesepilotisconsiderablylessthanitsU.S.dollarequivalentatcurrent
exchangeratesinAmerica.Trump’sostensiblereasonforthehardlineagainstChinaisthathe
wantstonegotiateabetterdealforU.S.manufacturing,includingforworkersstateside.
Don’tbelieve“Insider”hype.RelationswerealreadysobadunderObamathatconflict
wasinevitable.Trumpcanonlydobetterwithafreshapproach
PROFESSORXIANG,DECEMBER27TH,2016
[LanxinXiang(aprofessorofinternationalhistoryandpoliticsattheGraduateInstituteofInternationalandDevelopmentStudies
Geneva,Switzerland,anddirectoroftheCentreofOneBeltandOneRoadSecurityStudies,attheChinaNationalInstituteforSCO
InternationalExchangeandJudicialCooperation,Shanghai).SouthChinaMorningPosthttp://www.scmp.com/comment/insightopinion/article/2056841/why-trumps-blunt-approach-will-put-us-relations-china-surerMYY]
The“controlandmanagement”approachmayimplyatleasttwothings:first,therealisationthat
conflictwiththeUScannolongerbeavoidedwithinthecurrentframeworkofengagement;the
so-calledStrategicandEconomicDialoguehascontributedlittletobuildingmutualtrustatsummit
meetings.Beijingcannotcontinuedealingwiththe‘inside-the-beltway’USforeignpolicy
establishmentSecond,China’sfocuswillhavetoshifttowardsmaintainingatruestrategicbalance,
asifduringacoldwarstalemate,withthesinglepurposeofavoidingfull-fledgedconfrontation.
Leadershipsonbothsidesneedanewapproach,newtypeofanalystsandpolicymakerstoengage.
Beijingcannotcontinuedealingwiththe“inside-the-beltway”USforeignpolicyestablishment,
whoseutterfailureinengagingChinainthepasteightyearshaspushedbilateraltiestothe
dangerousbrinkofnavalconfrontation.EnterDonaldTrump.NowthattheWashingtonforeign
policyestablishmenthasbeendealtabigblowbyTrump’selection,wecouldseethatthenew
administration,withitsmostlynon-insidermembers,despiteitscallousstyleandbrutishrhetoric,
mayactuallyturnouttobeaneffectiveteamforengagingChina.Itmaythusbegoodnewsfor
Sino-USrelationsinthemediumandlongrun.
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ChinesePresidentXiandTrumparealreadyestablishinggoalstogether
REUTERS,NOVEMBER9TH,2016http://fortune.com/2016/11/09/donald-trump-win-china/
ChinesePresidentXiJinpingcongratulatedDonaldTrumponwinningtheU.S.presidency,stateTV
reportedonWednesday,tellinghimthetwobiggesteconomiesintheworldsharedresponsibilityfor
promotingglobaldevelopmentandprosperity."IplacegreatimportanceontheChina-U.S.relationship,
andlookforwardtoworkingwithyoutoupholdtheprinciplesofnon-conflict,non-confrontation,
mutualrespectandwin-wincooperation,"XitoldTrumpbyphone.
Theirauthorsareexaggerating–Trump’scallwithTaiwanfitsourpastpatternof
relations
POMFRET,DECEMBER9TH,2016
[JohnPomfret(aformerWashingtonPostbureauchiefinBeijing,WashingtonPost,
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/five-myths-about-us-china-relations/2016/12/09/beedb888-bccc-11e6-91ee1adddfe36cbe_story.html?utm_term=.275e52436568MYY]
WhenTrumptookTaiwan’scall,theU.S.foreignpolicyestablishmenthadaminornervousbreakdown.
Voxwarnedof“disarray”inU.S.-Chinarelations.NewYorkmagazineraisedthespecterofa
“diplomaticdisaster.”Let’stakeadeepbreathandrealizethatthe“statusquo”betweenTaiwanand
theUnitedStateshasbeenevolvingfordecades.InexchangeforChinesepromisestohelpeasethe
UnitedStatesoutofVietnamandcountertheSovietUnion,officialsfromtheNixonandCarter
administrationspromisedChinathatAmericawouldwalkawayfromTaiwan,allowingChinatoabsorbthe
islandof23millionpeople,whichBeijingviewsasarenegadeprovince.Sincethen,however,especiallyas
U.S.presidentshavecometounderstandthatChina’spoliticalsystemhasnotmovedinapositive
direction,successiveadministrationshaveworkedtobettertieswithTaiwan.Weaponssalestotheisland
remainrobustdespiteapromisetoChinain1982toslowthem.Diplomaticcontacthasbeenupgraded.
WashingtonnowsupportsgrantingTaiwanobserverstatusatavarietyofinternationalorganizations.
MostTaiwanesecancometotheUnitedStateswithoutavisa.Inthatsense,Trump’scallwasalogical
continuationofaslowlyevolvingprocessofimprovedrelations.Thebigconcern,however,isthatChina
willusethecallasanexcusetofurtherbullyTaiwanandthatTrumpwillstandby.
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“PlanHelpsChinaRelations”
TheysayTheyimproverelationswithChina,but
[GIVE:05SUMMARYOFOPPONENT’SSINGLEARGUMENT]
1.Extendour
evidence.
[PUTINYOURAUTHOR’SNAME]
It’smuchbetterthantheirevidencebecause:
[PUTINTHEIRAUTHOR’SNAME]
[CIRCLEONEORMOREOFTHEFOLLOWINGOPTIONS]:
(it’snewer)
(theauthorismorequalified) (ithasmorefacts)
(theirevidenceisnotlogical/contradictsitself) (historyprovesittobetrue)
(theirevidencehasnofacts)(Theirauthorisbiased)(ittakesintoaccounttheirargument)
(
)(theirevidencesupportsourargument)
[WRITEINYOUROWN!]
[EXPLAINHOWYOUROPTIONISTRUEBELOW]
______________________________________________________________________________
______________________________________________________________________________
______________________________________________________________________________
[EXPLAINWHYYOUROPTIONMATTERSBELOW]
andthisreasonmattersbecause:
______________________________________________________________________________
______________________________________________________________________________
______________________________________________________________________________
______________________________________________________________________________
______________________________________________________________________________
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LINKTURN–“PlanisaWin-Win”
TheysayTheirPLANisthekindofwin-winChinaislookingfor,but
[GIVE:05SUMMARYOFOPPONENT’SSINGLEARGUMENT]
1.Extendour
evidence.
[PUTINYOURAUTHOR’SNAME]
It’smuchbetterthantheirevidencebecause:
[PUTINTHEIRAUTHOR’SNAME]
[CIRCLEONEORMOREOFTHEFOLLOWINGOPTIONS]:
(it’snewer)
(theauthorismorequalified) (ithasmorefacts)
(theirevidenceisnotlogical/contradictsitself) (historyprovesittobetrue)
(theirevidencehasnofacts)(Theirauthorisbiased)(ittakesintoaccounttheirargument)
(
)(theirevidencesupportsourargument)
[WRITEINYOUROWN!]
[EXPLAINHOWYOUROPTIONISTRUEBELOW]
______________________________________________________________________________
______________________________________________________________________________
______________________________________________________________________________
[EXPLAINWHYYOUROPTIONMATTERSBELOW]
andthisreasonmattersbecause:
______________________________________________________________________________
______________________________________________________________________________
______________________________________________________________________________
______________________________________________________________________________
______________________________________________________________________________
2.TheAFF’sclaimofa“win-win”istheexactkindofdeal-makingthatChina
hatesaboutTrumpandwoulddamagerelationsworsethaneverbefore
TIMEMAGAZINE,DECEMBER15TH,2016
[CharlieCampbell(BeijingCorrespondent)“WhyDonaldTrumpReallyShouldn’tPlayGamesWithChinaOverTaiwan.”
http://time.com/4603128/china-taiwan-russia-vladimir-putin-xi-jinping-donald-trump-realpolitik/MYY]
“Trump’stakingamorerealpolitikapproach,sayingtherearenosacredcows,wewon’tbepushed
aroundandeverythingisonthetable,”saysProfessorNickBisley,anAsiaexpertatAustralia’sLaTrobe
University.ButTrumpshouldbewaryofwieldingrealpolitikinthislandoffictions.Beijingregularlycites
the“Taiwanquestion”asoneofits“coreinterests,”andthetopicistoxicevenamongotherwise
politicallyinertChinese.OnWednesday,AnFengshan,aspokesmanforChina’spolicymakingTaiwan
AffairsOffice,saidthat“peaceandstabilityintheTaiwanStraitwillbeseriouslyimpacted”iftheU.S.
waverson“oneChina.”ForTaiwan,the“oneChina”policyispartlyamillstone,precludingtheislandfrom
aseatattheU.N.orfromjoiningpotentiallylucrativefreetradegroupings.Butconversely,theagreement
—otherwiseknownasthe“1992Consensus”—hasallowedpeacefultiestoflourishacrossapreviously
truculentStrait.Today,touristsandexchangestudentsflockinbothdirectionsand40%ofTaiwan’s
exportsgotothemainland.Taiwanhasalottogainfromofficialrecognitionbutevenmoretolose.“In
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theshorttermthe[Taiwan]governmentseemstobeveryexcitedabout[Trumpaddressing‘oneChina’],”
saysProfessorTangShaocheng,aninternational-relationsexpertatTaiwan’sNationalChengchi
University.“Buttheconsequences—thereactionfromBeijing—isstillunpredictable.”Taiwanwould
bearthebruntofametastasizingSino-U.S.relationship,thoughTrumphasnevermentionedwhatthe
island’scitizensdesireduringhisbatingoftheChineseleadership.Instead,thePresident-electhas
treatedthecaselikeabusinessdeal,jostlingforthesmallestadvantage,whileneedlingtheworld’s
secondlargesteconomyovertradetariffsandallegedcurrencymanipulation.“Trumpistryingtoget
somemorebargainingchipstouselaterwithBeijing,”addsTang.“Taiwanisjustaleveragepointfor
Trump.”AndTrump’sactionselsewherearerecastingtherulesofthegameandfurtherimperilingthe
island’speople.TheotherheadlineofTrump’snascentforeignpolicyiswarmingtieswithRussia.Trump
repeatedlypraisedPresidentVladmirPutinduringhispresidentialcampaign,flyinginthefaceofthe
internationalcondemnationpromptedbyMoscow’s2014annexingoftheCrimea,nottomentionits
steadfastsupportforSyrianPresidentBasharAssad.OnWednesday,Trumpnamedhiscandidatefor
SecretaryofState:RexTillerson,theExxonMobilchiefwithalonghistoryofdealswiththeKremlin,and
whowasawardedtheRussianOrderofFriendshipin2013.ThenodraisedeyebrowsevenwithinTrump’s
ownparty.“Idon’tknowwhatMr.Tillerson’srelationshipwithVladimirPutinwas,”SenatorJohnMcCain
toldFoxNewsonSaturday.“ButI’lltellyouitisamatterofconcerntome.”WhatexactlyTrumphopesto
gainfromcourtingPutinisunclear.Therealestatemogulmayhavebeenelectedonpromisestoput
“Americafirst,”butPutinisaRussiannationalistofthedeepestdyeandunlikelytoyieldmuchof
consequencetoWashington.OnetheoryisthatTrumpismaneuveringfora“reverseNixon”strategy:
teamingupwithMoscowtoisolateBeijing,inamirrorofU.S.policytocountertheSovietUnioninthe
1970s.However,thatisunlikelytobearfruit.AccordingtoDmitriTrenin,directoroftheCarnegieMoscow
Centerthinktank,BeijingandMoscowhaveneverbeenascloseastheyaretoday.“Iwouldcallthema
‘détente’stateofrelations,”saysTrenin.“That’ssomewherebetweenastrategicpartnershipandafullfledgedalliance.”ChinesePresidentXiJinping’sseminalOneBelt,OneRoadeconomicstrategy—a
rekindlingoftheiconiclandandmaritimeSilkRoadthoughinfrastructureanddevelopmentprojects—is
dependentonrosyrelationswithRussiaandparticularlyCentralAsia,whichislargelybeholdentothe
Kremlin.Today,Russiaistheworld’stopoilexporter—accountingfor70%ofallnationalexports—and
itstopcustomerisChina,whichbought22milliontonsinthefirsthalfofthisyear.Squabblesover
disputedterritoryinCentralAsiahavebeensolvedwithsurprisingprudenceandaraftofpipelineand
otherinfrastructuredealshavebeenstruck.“RelationsarerobustandIcanonlyseethemgetting
stronger,”saysTrenin.Bycontrast,theU.S.haslittletoofferRussia.ButTrump’sfawningofPutindoes
haveaneffect.TrumpannouncedTillerson’sappointmentjustasAssad’sRussian-backedtroopsretook
Aleppo,displacingthousandsandreportedlyslaughteringscoresofinnocents.ButBeijingismostacutely
awarethattheKremlinsufferedfewrepercussionfromitsseizingofCrimea,otherthaneconomic
sanctionsitshruggedaside(andTrumpcouldsoonliftthematastokeofhispen).IfTrumpwantstoput
ethicsasideandtalkrealpolitik:WhatwouldtheU.S.doifChinadecidedtoretakeTaiwan?Torephrase:
Whatcoulditdo?TheU.S.militaryisstrongerthatChina’soverall,thoughawarinChina’scoastalwaters
wouldbebloodyandimpossibletowin.ThePhilippines,traditionallyAmerica’sstaunchestally,has
becomeantagonisticwithWashingtonandchummywithChinasincePresidentRodrigoDutertetook
officethisyear.TherearealsoresurgentcallstoremoveU.S.troopsfrombasesinSouthKoreaandJapan,
whobothlistChinaastheirlargesttradingpartners.Beijinghasbuiltislands—dubbedunsinkableaircraft
carriers—intheSouthChinaSea,whichnewsatelliteimagesindicatecontainsignificantweaponry.Not
toforgetthatTrumpcampaignedondrawingdowncommitmentsoncostlywarsoverseas.“Xiisatough
guyandhasshownunprecedentedtoleranceforTrump’sarrogance,”saysProfessorShiYinhong,
directoroftheCenteronAmericanStudiesatBeijing’sRenminUniversity.“ButifTrumpstillwantsto
messwithChina’scoreinterestsafterhebecomesPresident,Sino-U.S.tieswillsufferthegreatest
damagesince[theresumptionofdiplomaticrelations].Chinawillnotcompromise.”
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NOLINK:“Trumpisaloosecannon”
TheysayChinawillinevitablybemadatTrumpbecausehe’saloosecannon,but
[GIVE:05SUMMARYOFOPPONENT’SSINGLEARGUMENT]
1.ExtendourNEWYORKTIMES
evidence.
[PUTINYOURAUTHOR’SNAME]
It’smuchbetterthantheirAsiaNewsNetworkevidencebecause:
[PUTINTHEIRAUTHOR’SNAME]
[CIRCLEONEORMOREOFTHEFOLLOWINGOPTIONS]:
(it’snewer)
(theauthorismorequalified) (ithasmorefacts)
(theirevidenceisnotlogical/contradictsitself) (historyprovesittobetrue)
(theirevidencehasnofacts)(Theirauthorisbiased)(ittakesintoaccounttheirargument)
(
)(theirevidencesupportsourargument)
[WRITEINYOUROWN!]
[EXPLAINHOWYOUROPTIONISTRUEBELOW]
__TheNewYorkTimesisamuchmorerespectedjournalismsourcethantheAsiaNewsNetwork
andourargumentsaysChinaisgivingTrumpagraceperiod.Theirevidencesayswe’re
“frenemies”now,butonlyspeculatesaboutwhyTrumpwouldchangethat.____________
[EXPLAINWHYYOUROPTIONMATTERSBELOW]
andthisreasonmattersbecause:
____ItmeansChinadoesn’tthinkTrumpisamadmannow,atleastuntilafterthePLAN.Bad
relationsaren’tinevitable–theAFFuniquelycausesourimpactsofcollapsingrelations___
2
[Chooseoneortwoofthefollowingpiecesofevidencefromthenext3pagesthatYOU
thinkareBESTtoextendtheargument,ifyouhavetime.]
ChinaiscautiouslyoptimisticaboutTrumpbeingpractical
REUTERS,NOVEMBER9TH,2016http://fortune.com/2016/11/09/donald-trump-win-china/
Certainly,aTrumpWhiteHousepresentsChinawitharangeofnewopportunities.DecadesofHillary
Clinton'scriticismofChina'shumanrightsrecordandherinsistenceonU.S.interestsintheSouthChina
Seahavemadeherawell-known,andnotwell-likedfigureamongBeijing'srulingelite.
ChineseexpertssaysomeinBeijingbelieveTrumpwillproveapragmaticbusinessman,willingtodeal
withChina.
"Anytypeofprotectionistpolicypursuedwillbeadouble-edgedsword,"saidRuanZongze,aformer
ChinesediplomatnowwiththeChinaInstituteofInternationalStudies,athink-tankaffiliatedwiththe
ForeignMinistry."Ithinkhewillbeverycarefulaboutthis,"
Moreover,Trump'scriticismofU.S.allies,includingJapan,forfree-ridingonU.S.securityguarantees,
hasofferedChinathetantalizingprospectofanAmericanretrenchmentfromAsia.
"Fromalong-termperspective,thisgivesChinamorespacetoproveitselfandittakesoffsomeofthe
pressureonChina,"saidWangYiwei,DirectoroftheInstituteofInternationalAffairsatChina'sRenmin
University.
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HistoryprovesChinawilltakea“waitandsee”approachtowardTrump’s
unpredictableWORDS,butwillreactstronglytoPOLICIESliketheAFFPLANthattheydislike
MIURAANDPROFESSORCHENWEISS,2017
[KacieMiura(aPhDcandidateinpoliticalscienceatMIT)JessicaChenWeiss(AssociateProfessorofGovernmentatCornell).“Will
ChinaTestTrump?LessonsfromPastCampaignsandElections.”WashingtonQuarterly(Winter2017)p8-9
DrawingonChina’srecentbehaviortowardnewlyelectedleadersintheUnitedStates,Japan,
andTaiwan,weexpectChinatoadoptawait-and-seestancetowardtheincomingTrump
administration.Duringthecampaign,TrumpharshlycriticizedthecurrenttermsofU.S.trade
andsecuritycommitments.However,hisrhetoricwasofteninconsistentwiththatofhis
advisorsandoutofstepwiththeviewsofmuchoftheRepublicanestablishment.Giventhis
inconsistency,weexpectBeijingtotakeacautiousapproachtowardthenewadministration,
justasithastowardothernationalleaderswhosecampaignrhetoricconflictedwithother
indicatorsoflikelypolicy.Althoughthepastishardlyaninfallibleguidetothefuture,wedonot
expectChinatoprobethenewadministration,asthereislittleevidencethatChinahassought
totestortakeadvantageofnewlyelectedleadersintherecentpast.ChinesePerceptionsof
CampaignRhetoric:ConsistencyandChangeWhenevaluatingthelikelihoodthataleaderwill
followthroughoncampaignpromises,wefindthatChinaseesacandidate’scampaignrhetoric
asmorecrediblewhenitisconsistentwithhisorherpastforeignpolicystatementsandthe
reputationofhisorherpartyandpolicyadvisors.Candidateswhosecampaignremarks
contradicttheirpastrecord,thereputationoftheirparty,andtheviewsoftheiradvisorsare
moreoftenexpectedtorenegeoncampaignpledgeswhenconfrontedwiththecomplex
realitiesofgoverning.11Whenacandidate’scampaignrhetoricisinconsistentwithother
indicators,Chinatypicallytakesa“wait-and-see”approach,delayingjudgmentuntilafterthe
candidatetakesofficeandrevealsintentionsthroughsubsequentactions.Chinaadoptedsuch
anapproachtowardTaiwan’sChenShui-bian(2000–2008)andJapan’sJunichiroKoizumi
(2001–2006),leaderswhosecampaignrhetoriconChinaappearedopportunisticandcontrasted
sharplywiththeirpastbehaviorandactions.ObserversinBeijingexpresseddeepskepticism
towardChen,whosemoderatecampaignstancecontradictedhisstaunch,pro-independence
reputation.12Conversely,Koizumi,whohadarecordofmoderatestatementstowardChina,
adoptedatougherpositiononthecampaigntrail,whichChineseobserverscharacterizedasan
attempttocatertohisparty’sconservativerightwing.13Beijingusedspecificissuesaslitmus
teststoassesswhetherthesenewleadersacknowledgedcherishedprinciples—suchasthe
existenceof“OneChina”withTaiwan—andavoidedtakingsymbolicallyprovocativeactions,
suchasvisitstoYasukuniShrine,whichcommemoratesJapanesewarcriminalsalongwith
ordinarywardead.Inbothcases,Beijing’swait-and-seestancelastedformorethanayear.
Ultimatelydissatisfiedwiththeresultsofitseffortstoinfluencethesenewleaders’
statementsandactionsonkeyissues,Beijing’sensuingtreatmentwasquiteharsh.Conversely,
whenthereisconsistencybetweenacandidate’scampaignrhetoricandtheirpaststatements,
actions,andthereputationofthepartyandpolicyadvisors,asecondimportantfactorthat
appearstoinfluenceBeijing’streatmentofanewleaderiswhetherheorshepromisedto
changetheChinapolicyoftheprecedingadministration.U.S.presidentialcandidatesoftenseek
todistinguishthemselvesfromtheincumbent,findingitdifficultto“resistthesirensongof
toughpromisestoreversetheirpredecessors’softapproach”towardChina,asnotedbyformer
AssistantSecretaryofStateforEastAsianAffairsKurtCampbellandformerDeputySecretaryof
StateJamesSteinberg.14
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TheyLINK.WeagreewiththeNEGthatChinahasuncertaintyabout
Trump.TheAFFPLANcausesescalationwhenChinaviewsitasthestartofa
back-and-forthrivalry
STRABONE,DECEMBER12TH,2016
[MatthewStrabone(anattorneyandapartneroftheTrumanNationalSecurityProject)“Trump'sBoardroomDiplomacy.”USNews
&WorldReporthttp://www.usnews.com/opinion/world-report/articles/2016-12-21/china-retaliated-due-to-donald-trumps-foreignpolicy-bargainingMYY]
Trumphasmadesignificanthayofhisexperienceasabusinessman,andpokingatBeijingin
perhapsitsmostsensitiveareaappearstobeamovetakenfromthebusinessworld.
Specifically,TrumpseemstowanttotreatChinaasarivalbusinessthathasnochoicebutto
eventuallycometothetableandmakeadealwithhim.Inthiscontext,Trumpmaythinkthat
attemptingtoputTaiwaninplayasanegotiableassetwillprovidehimwithabargainingchip–
achipthatcanbetradedforconcessionsinotherareasofU.S.-Chinaties,perhapsregarding
tradepolicy,NorthKoreaorsomeotherareawherehewishestomakeprogress.Suchan
approachmayworkinthebusinessworld,butnationstatesarenotbusinesses,andcore
nationalinterestscanrarelybebargainedawayforlowertariffs.Infact,thisapproachmay
onlyexacerbateonecriticalongoingissueinU.S.-Chinarelations:alackofunderstandingon
thepartofeachnationastohowtheothermakesforeignpolicy.ConfusedbyTrump'shighly
unorthodoxmoves,Beijingwastedlittletimeinlaunchingaprovocationofitsownwithits
vehicleseizureintheSouthChinaSea.WhereasChinahadreachedsomesemblanceof
understandingregardingtherulesofengagementwiththeObamaadministration,Beijingmay
nowfeelthatitisflyingblindandthusmayengageinfurthertit-for-tatactivitiessimplytogeta
senseofwhereTrumpwilldrawtheline.Thissortofretaliatoryapproachtobilateralties
carriesasignificantriskofescalation,andwhenitisthetwomostpowerfulnationsinthe
worldinvolved,escalationisnotagoodoutcomeforanyone.Additionally,thispotential
dangeronlyaddstothepreexistinguncertaintyintheWesternPacific,andothercountriesin
theregionarepredictablybecomingincreasinglynervousaboutrisingtensionsbetweenthe
world'stwopremierepowers.
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2NC/1NRChinaRelationsDisadvantageAT:#5
“NoNuclearProliferation”
TheysayThere’snonuclearproliferationnow,but
[GIVE:05SUMMARYOFOPPONENT’SSINGLEARGUMENT]
1.Extendour
evidence.
[PUTINYOURAUTHOR’SNAME]
It’smuchbetterthantheirevidencebecause:
[PUTINTHEIRAUTHOR’SNAME]
[CIRCLEONEORMOREOFTHEFOLLOWINGOPTIONS]:
(it’snewer)
(theauthorismorequalified) (ithasmorefacts)
(theirevidenceisnotlogical/contradictsitself) (historyprovesittobetrue)
(theirevidencehasnofacts)(Theirauthorisbiased)(ittakesintoaccounttheirargument)
(
)(theirevidencesupportsourargument)
[WRITEINYOUROWN!]
[EXPLAINHOWYOUROPTIONISTRUEBELOW]
______________________________________________________________________________
______________________________________________________________________________
______________________________________________________________________________
[EXPLAINWHYYOUROPTIONMATTERSBELOW]
andthisreasonmattersbecause:
______________________________________________________________________________
______________________________________________________________________________
______________________________________________________________________________
______________________________________________________________________________
______________________________________________________________________________
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AFF2ACAnswers
2ACAffirmativeAnswerstoChinaRelations
Disadvantage(January2017Update)
1.NON-UNIQUE-Relationsarebadalready.Trumphasalreadyundone35years
ofdiplomacywithChinainonephonecallwithTaiwan
SYDNEYMORNINGHERALD,DECEMBER3RD,2016
http://www.smh.com.au/world/donald-trump-blunders-into-conflict-over-taiwan-knowinglittle-and-caring-less-20161203-gt39j5.html
The following day the president-elect's transition team issued a jaunty statement
confirming that Donald Trump had arbitrarilyupended35yearsofcarefulAmerican
diplomacybyspeakingonthephonewiththePresidentofTaiwan, Tsai Ing-wen,
conceivablyputtingtheUnitedStatesonapaththatendsindirectconfrontationwithChina
overoneofthemostexplosivegeopoliticalflashpointsonearth.
Itisdifficulttoexaggeratehowsignificant-andhowprovocative-thisactionwas.China
considersTaiwantobearogueprovinceandhasdeclaredthatitwouldgoasfarasusing
militaryforcetopreventTaiwaneseindependence.TheUShasforagenerationdanceda
carefuldanceinsupportofTaiwan.ItisthedefactoguarantorofTaiwanesedefence,butit
doesnotrecogniseTaiwanasanindependentstate.NoUSleaderhasofficiallyspokenwitha
Taiwanesepresidentindecades.
2.LINKTURN:<insertanalysisastowhyplanactuallyimprovesrelationswith
Chinaandreferto1ACevidence>
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3.OurLINKTURNisUNIQUEbecauseafterTrump’sinitialprovokingof
China,they’relookingforwin-winpolicieslikeourplantoincreaserelations
SOUTHCHINAMORNINGPOST,DECEMBER22ND,2016
[LiuZhen(writer).“China’sforeignministerurgesTrumptorespectBeijing’s‘coreinterests’,‘majorconcerns’.”
http://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy-defence/article/2056576/chinas-foreign-minister-urges-trump-respect-beijingsMYY]
BeijingandWashingtonshouldrespecteachother’s“coreinterests”and“majorconcerns”so
thatthetwocountriescanworktogetherforwin-winresults,China’sForeignMinisterWang
YisaidinaninterviewwiththePeople’sDaily.“ChinaandtheUSwillhaverespectandtakecare
ofeachother’scoreinterestsandmajorconcernstoensurelongandstablecooperationand
realisemutualbenefitsandawin-winsituation,”WangtoldthegoverningCommunistParty’s
mouthpiece.ThecommentscameafterUSpresident-electDonaldTrumphasmade
provocativegesturestowardsBeijing,includingthethreatofdisregardingtheone-China
principletogovernfuturepolicytowardsTaiwan.Trump’snominationofPeterNavarrotohead
anewly-createdWhiteHousecouncilontradehasalsoraisedeyebrowsthisweek.
4.NOLINK:TheirDisadvantageisinevitable–whetherornotwemakeChina
angrywiththeplan,Trumpisaloosecannonandthey’llbeangryanyway
regardless
ASIANEWSNETWORK,DECEMBER22ND,2016[http://annx.asianews.network/content/editorial-trump-andchina-bumpy-ride-has-begun-35776MYY]
Therestoftheworldwillhavetofastenitsseatbeltswhilethecurrent,worryingclashof
superpowersChinaandtheUnitedStatesplaysitselfout.Althoughthesagaoftheunderwater
droneendedpeaceablyearlierthisweek,thedramasignalledthatthecompetitionbetween
thetwohasenteredanewera.Withhelpfromtheubiquitoussocialmedia,theirdiplomatic
engagementistakingplaceinrealtimeswiftly,unpredictablyandamidconsiderabletension.
TheinaugurationofPresidentDonaldTrumponJanuary20isexpectedtoseeUS-Chinaties
transformedintoaguardedquasi-friendshiprequiringday-to-dayreassessment.Thestability
thatprevailedduringtheeightyearsoftheObamaadministrationisunlikelytosurvive.
Trumpisgiventoknee-jerkreactionsandill-consideredgrandstandingforthesakeofquick
gainandpublicity,aswellasforhisbrashpursuitof“theartofthedeal”,noneofwhichbodes
wellforAmerica’srelationswithBeijing.Stillamonthfromtakingoffice,Trumphasalready
endangeredhiscountry’slong-standingrecognitionofthe“OneChinaPolicy”byacceptinga
phonecallfromTaiwaneseleaderTsaiIng-wan,abreachofprotocoladoptedafterWashington
formallyrecognisedcommunistChinaintheearly1970s.PresidentBarackObamaimmediately
warnedthatanyshiftfromthispolicywouldhaveaseriousimpactonAmericandealingswith
Beijing,animportanttradingpartnerandbackeroftheUSeconomy.Aimingtorenegotiate
extantoverseasdeals,Trumpdoesnotappeartocare,andseemsreadytotestChinesemettle
oneveryissue.
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5 NOIMPACT:Nuclearproliferationisslowinginthestatusquo
VanderMeer,2011[Sico,ResearchFellowattheNetherlandsInstituteofInternationalRelations‘Clingendael’andaPhD
CandidateattheErasmusUniversityRotterdam;hisPhDprojectonnuclearproliferationdynamicsisfinanciallysupportedbythe
Dutchnon-governmentalorganisationIKVPaxChristi.“Notthatbad:Lookingbackon65yearsofnuclearnon-proliferationefforts”
SecurityandHumanRights2011no.1]
Sincetheinventionandfirstuseofnuclearweapons,predictionsonthespreadofthese
weaponshavebeentraditionallypessimistic.EspeciallyduringtheColdWar,from1945to1991,
thepersistentpessimismamongexpertsandpolicymakersis—withtheknowledgeoflooking
backwards—surprising.DuringthefirstdecadesoftheColdWaritwasgenerallyexpectedthat
farmorecountrieswouldacquireanuclearweaponsarsenalrathersoon.Thispessimismwas
notthatstrange,consideringthatnuclearweaponsweregenerallyseenasacceptable,desirable
andevennecessaryamongpoliticalandmilitaryelitesinmanynationsduringthe1950sand
early1960s.2Nuclearweaponsareconsideredastheultimateweaponthatwoulddeterany
enemyfromattacking.Moreover,nuclearweaponsoffernotonlymilitarypower:theyarealso
consideredtoincreaseastate’spoliticalpowerinternationally.Havingnuclearweaponsgrantsa
state—anditsleadership—internationalprestige,andanuclearweaponstatewill
automaticallybeconsideredandtreatedasa(regional)superpower.Basedonthispositive
attitudetowardsnuclearweapons,forecastsintheseyearswerethereforeeasilypredictingthat
20to25stateswouldbecomenuclearweaponpowerswithinthenextfewdecades;countries
likeSweden,WestGermanyandJapanareexamplesofcountriesthatwereoftenconsidered
wouldsooncrossthenuclearthreshold,buttheyneverdid.Oneofthereasonsforthealarming
forecastsduringmuchoftheColdWarperiodwasthefailureofmanyestimatestodistinguish
betweenthecapacityofstatestodevelopnuclearweaponsandthedesireofthesestatestodo
so.3Evennowadays,however,politicalandacademicforecastsoftentendtoberather
pessimistic,predictingnucleardominoeffects,orchainreactions,whennewnuclearweapon
powers(forexample,Iran)willemergeandcauseotherstatestodevelopnuclearweaponstoo.
Despiteallthepessimisticforecasts,however,onlyninestatesnowadayspossessnuclear
weapons.Althoughmorestateshaveemployednuclearweaponsprogrammesatsomepointin
thepast65years,mostofthemhavesoonerorlaterendedtheirambitiontoacquirethese
weapons.Somestatesevendestroyedtheirnucleararsenal(SouthAfrica)orgaveupinherited
arsenals(Ukraine,BelarusandKazakhstan).Especiallysincethesecondhalfofthe1980sthe
numberofstateswithnuclearweapons-relatedactivitieshasbecomeverymarginal
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1ARExtensionto2AC#1:NON-UNIQUE:
RelationsBadNow
Extendthe2ACSYDNEYMORNINGHERALDevidence.ItsaysthatTrump’s
phonecalltoTaiwanwastheworstthingthat’shappenedtorelationswith
Chinain35yearsandcouldcauseconflictbyitself.Grouptheirresponses.
1. TheirNewYorkTimesevidencesaysChinawillgiveTrumpagraceperiod,
butitconcedesthatTaiwanisakeyissue.After35yearsofconflictover
Taiwan,there’snograceperiodwhenitcomestoTaiwan.
2. [Chooseoneofthetwofollowingextensioncardsonthenext3pagesthat
YOUlikeBESTandreadifyouhavetime.]
TRUMPISVIEWEDBYCHINAASDESTABILIZINGRELATIONS
REUTERS,NOVEMBER9TH,2016http://fortune.com/2016/11/09/donald-trump-win-china/
DonaldTrump'supsetelectionvictorycracksopenpressingstrategicandeconomicquestionsin
U.S.-Chinaties,andhaslikelysurprisedandworriedChineseleaders,whoprizestabilityin
relationsbetweenthetwopowers.
TrumphadlambastedChinathroughoutthecampaign,drummingupheadlineswithhis
pledgestoslap45%tariffsonimportedChinesegoodsandlabelthecountryacurrency
manipulatorhisfirstdayinoffice.
HehasalsoquestionedU.S.securitycommitmentstoalliesandundercutlong-heldbipartisan
U.S.foreignpolicynorms,suchassuggestingthatJapandevelopnuclearweapons,allstances
thatifhefollowsthroughoncouldupsettheregionalsecuritybalanceinAsia.
ThatunpredictabilityisnotanidealelectionoutcomeforChina'sstability-obsessed
CommunistParty,especiallyasitseekssmoothU.S.relationsatatimeofdauntingreform
challengesathome,aslowingeconomy,andaleadershipreshuffleofitsownthatwillputa
newpartyelitearoundPresidentXiJinpinginlate2017.
TrumpphonecallwithTaiwanishistoricallybadforChinarelations
THEDIPLOMAT,DECEMBER3RD,2016http://thediplomat.com/2016/12/donald-trump-just-complicated-ustaiwan-relations-big-time/
OnFriday,theFinancialTimesconfirmedthatU.S.President-electDonaldJ.Trumphadmoved
forwardonaplannedphonecallwithPresidentTsaiIng-wenofTaiwan.Thecallrepresentsthe
firstcontactbetweenaU.S.president-elect(orpresident,forthatmatter)andaTaiwanesehead
ofstatesinceU.S.PresidentJimmyCarteracknowledgedtheCommunistPartyofChina
governmentinBeijingunderthe“oneChina”policy.Thecallcouldsparkthefirstmajorforeign
policycrisisfortheincomingTrumpadministrationwithChina,whichwillseethecallas
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suggestiveofanepochalchangeinU.S.policytowardTaiwan.ThegovernmentofChinahad
notreactedtothecallasofthiswriting.
Somewhatdistressingly,theFTnotesthatit“isnotcleariftheTrumptransitionteamintended
theconversationtosignalabroaderchangeinU.S.policytowardTaiwan,”suggestingthatthis
couldsimplyhavebeenborneofamisunderstandingaboutexistingU.S.policytowardChina
andTaiwanwithinTrump’stransitionteam.(EarlierinNovember,therewerereportsthat
TrumpwasseekingtopursuedevelopmentprojectsinTaiwan,imbuingthewholeepisodewith
aconflict-of-interestangleaswell.)
TaiwanandChinamaintaindiplomatictieswithamutuallyexclusivesetofcountries,witheach
bilateralpartnerrecognizingeitherTaipeiorBeijingastheexclusivehosttothegovernmentof
China.TheUnitedStatesmaintainsnoofficialdiplomatictieswithTaiwan,butunofficially,
Washington’srelationswiththeisland—whichChinaseesasarightfulpartofitsterritory—
aregovernedbytheTaiwanRelationsAct.MostcontactsarecarriedoutthroughthesemiofficialAmericanInstituteinTaiwan,whichfunctionsasadefactoU.S.embassy;directhighlevelpoliticalcontactsareaclearredlineforBeijing.TheambiguitygoverningU.S.interaction
withTaiwanhasbeencarefullybalancedsince1979andTrump’sonephonecallrepresentsthe
greatestjolttothetightropethatpreviousU.S.presidentshavewalked.
It’sentirelyunclearhowChinawillchoosetoreacttoTrump’sprovocativephonecall.Beijingis
alreadydisappointedbyTsai’sDemocraticProgressivePartygovernment,giventheparty’sproindependenceleanings.OnepossibilityisthatthedomesticreactioninTaiwantothephonecall
couldgoverntheextenttowhichChinaexpressesitsdispleasure.TheTaipeiTimes,reportingon
thecall,alreadysuggesteditcouldbeasteptowardinstitutionalizingchannelsof
communicationbetweenTaipeiandWashington’stopleaders.
IfTrump’soutreachiswidelyreadinTaiwanasasignalthattheUnitedStateswillthrowits
fullmilitarymightbehindtheislandinthecaseofaunilateraldeclarationofindependence,
Beijingcouldtakedrasticaction,includingputtingafreezetohigh-leveldiplomacywith
Washingtonorcuttingoffrelationsaltogether.Thesituationiscomplicated,however,bythe
factthatthepresident-elect—notthecurrentObamaadministration—tookthestepof
reachingouttoTsai,meaningretaliationmighthavetowaituntilTrump’sinaugurationin
Januarytoavoidmixedmessages.
RelationsbetweenTaiwanandChinahavenoticeablyenteredacoolerperiodsinceTsai’s
inauguration.Beijingsuspendedcross-straitcollaborationwithTaipeiafteritwasunsatisfied
withTsai’streatmentoftheso-called“1992consensus,”whichhadgovernedcross-strait
relationsunderpreviousTaiwanesepresidentMaYing-jeou.WithinTaiwan,asurgeofcivic
nationalism,spurredonbyyouthactivism,ledtoadecisivevictoryfortheindependenceleaningDPPandarepudiationofMa’sNationalistPartyorKMT,whichenjoyedbettercrossstraitties.
DespitetheFT’slackofinformationontheextenttowhichthecallwasplanned,itispossible
thatTrumpwaseggedonherebyhisAsiaadvisers.Forexample,PeterNavarro,aTrumpadviser
onAsia,pennedanop-edintheNationalInterestadvocatingformuscularU.S.backingfor
TaiwanfollowingTsai’svictoryandthesurgeinTaiwanesenationalism.
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Intheop-edNavarraobemoansBillClinton’sdecisiontorenounceU.S.backingforTaiwanese
independencein1998,describinga“throw-Taiwan-under-the-bus”move.U.S.policy,delivered
throughcarefullycalculatedambiguity,hasbeentopreventachangeinthestatusquoacross
theTaiwanStrait—thatmeansequaloppositiontoTaiwanunilaterallydeclaringindependence
aswellasChinamovingtoforcibly“unite”thetwo.(ForChina’sPeople’sLiberationArmy,a
Taiwanstraitcontingencyremainstheprimarywar-fightingscenario.)
Friday’scallwithTsairepresentsTrump’ssecondphonecall-relatedmishapthisweekafter
Pakistanreleasedanunusuallycandidreadoutofthepresident-elect’scommentsthisweekina
chatwithPrimeMinisterNawazSharif.(IwroteonthatforTheDiplomatearlier.)Betweenthe
twoincidents,weseeadistressingpossibilityforearlyforeignpolicycrisesintheAsia-Pacificin
aTrumpadministration.
AsInotedonelectionnight,theTaiwanStraitisoneofthegeopoliticalFlashpointslikeliestto
seeamajorconflagrationunderaTrumppresidency.Friday’sphonecallmakesthe21st
century’s“first”Taiwancrisisallthemorelikely.
Update:TheTrumpcampaignhasposteditsreadoutofthecallbetweenTsaiandTrump:
President-electTrumpspokewithPresidentTsaiIng-wenofTaiwan,whoofferedher
congratulations.Duringthediscussion,theynotedthecloseeconomic,political,andsecurity
tiesexistbetweenTaiwanandtheUnitedStates.President-electTrumpalsocongratulated
PresidentTsaionbecomingPresidentofTaiwanearlierthisyear.
AsPatrickChovanecobservedonTwitter,whatevertheimpressionofthecallmaybefromthe
Taiwaneseside,themerefactthatTrumpcalledTsaithe“presidentofTaiwan”inanofficial
readoutwillcauseaconniptioninChina.
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Updates
NOLINKandNON-UNIQUE:NoriskofnationalistbacklashtothePLAN–Xihas
undisputedcontrolandTrumpisperceivedpositivelybytheChinese,evenafter
hisTaiwanactions
THEECONOMIST,DECEMBER17TH,2016
[“TaiwanfearsbecomingDonaldTrump’sbargainingchip.”Leadingnewssourcehttp://www.economist.com/news/china/21711955china-worries-about-president-elect-too-taiwan-fears-becoming-donald-trumps-bargaining-chipMYY]
MrTrump’sremarkswouldhaveriledtheChineseleadershipatanytime.Buttheyare
particularlyunwelcomeatthisjunctureforChina’sleader,XiJinping.Heisabsorbedby
preparationsforcrucialmeetingsduetobeheldlatein2017atwhichsweepingreshufflesofthe
PolitburoandotherCommunistPartybodieswillbeannounced.Thosetryingtoblockhis
appointmentswouldbequicktoseizeonanysignthatheisbeingsoftonAmericaoversucha
sensitivematterasTaiwan.ShouldMrTrumppersistinchallengingtheone-Chinaidea,therisk
ofescalationwillbeevengreaterthanusualinthebuild-uptotheconclaves—allthemoreso,
perhaps,givenMrXi’sinsistencethatdifferencesbetweenChinaandTaiwan“cannotbepassed
onfromgenerationtogeneration”.Hawkishcolleaguesmaysaythatitistimetosettletheissue
byforce.StreetprotestsinChinaagainstAmericaorTaiwanwouldalsomakeitmoredifficult
forMrXitocompromise:hewouldfearbecomingatargethimselfofChinesenationalists’
wrath.Buttheriskofthismaybelow.SinceMrXitookoverin2012therehavebeennomajor
outbreaksofnationalistunrest,partlythankstohistighteningofsocialandpoliticalcontrols
(includinglockingupevermoredissidents).SunZheofTsinghuaUniversitysayspeopleare
unlikelytodemonstrateoverTaiwan“becausetheyunderstandthenewrules,thenew
emphasisonpoliticaldisciplineinthelastfewyears.”HesaysalotofpeopleinChinastilladmire
MrTrumpforhiswealthandhisunexpectedpoliticalsuccess.Theythinkthat“hewantstomake
adealwithChina.”
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Update)–NEGBRINK
China’shardlinenationalistsarealreadypushingXiaboutTrump–they’rewatchingnowbut
willcomedownhardagainstanyfurthersignofweakness
NEWYORKTIMES,DECEMBER19TH,2016http://www.nytimes.com/2016/12/19/world/asia/-china-donald-trumppower.html
Sofar,Mr.XihasnotreactedpubliclytoMr.Trump’swarnings.Thetwomenhadabriefbut
cordialcallafterMr.Trumpwontheelection.Chineseleadersrarelywadeopenlyintodisputes,
leavingthattojuniorofficials.ButpressureforatougherreactiontoMr.Trumpcouldbuildin
Chinaifhekeepslobbingoutwarnings,especiallyafterhebecomespresident.
ExpertsdisagreedoverwhetherChina’sseizureofthesubmersibledronewasintendedasa
signaltoMr.Trump,orevenauthorizedbyMr.Xi.ButChinesedecisionmakersprobablytook
intoaccountthatMr.Trump’steamwouldreaditas“atestandawarning,”saidNiLexiong,a
navalaffairsresearcherattheShanghaiUniversityofPoliticalScienceandLaw.
“ItwouldbeimpossibleforChinanottoreacttohisprovocations,”Mr.Nisaidbytelephone.
“Trumpseemstowantaforeignpolicythatkeepstheothersideguessing.Butthatwayof
workingcaneasilyleadtotrouble.”
OnMonday,aneditorialinaprominentCommunistPartynewspapersaidthatMr.Xi’s
governmentneededtobereadyforrockierrelations.
“Trumphitsoutwithahammertotheeastandaclubtothewest,andhisrealthinkingisvery
difficulttofathom,”saidtheeditorialintheoverseaseditionofthepaper,People’sDaily,using
aChinesesayingthatmeanstospeakoractwithoutrhymeorreason.China,itsaid,should
“staysteadyonitsfeet,keepagoodgraspofdevelopments,calmlyrespond,andthat’sit.”
ButevenChina’scallsforcalmhavebarbsandcaveatsthatcouldrileaTrumpadministration.
WhentheChinesedefenseministrysaiditwouldreturnthesubmersibledrone,italsosaidthe
Chineseshipshoweda“professionalandresponsibleattitude”byseizingthedevice,although
thedroneappearedtobeoutsideevenanextremelyexpansiveviewofChina’srightfulreachin
theSouthChinaSea.
Chinesehard-linersarealreadyurgingaharsherresponsetoMr.Trump.OnSaturday,Global
Times,anewspaperoftendominatedbyanti-Americanrhetoric,heldaforuminBeijingwhere
speakersurgedtoughretaliationifMr.TrumpmovedclosertoTaiwan,andpraisedtheseizure
oftheunderwaterdrone.
“Chinaisn’tafraidofconfrontationwithAmerica,”DaiXu,aformerChineseAirForcesenior
colonelandoutspokenhawk,saidatthemeeting.“WithoutChina’scooperation,Trumpwill
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achievenothing.IdaresaythatifheoptsforconfrontationwithChina,hewon’tstayinoffice
formorethanfouryears.”
Anotherspeaker,JinCanrong,aprofessorofinternationalrelationsatRenminUniversityin
Beijing,toldGlobalTimes:“Chinaisadragon.Americaisaneagle.Britainisalion.Whenthe
dragonwakesup,theothersareallsnacks.”
SuchtoughtalkdoesnotsetChineseforeignpolicy,butMr.Xiandotherleadersaresensitive
tonationalistirethattheythemselveshavenurtured.Mr.Xihassummeduphisvisionof
nationalrejuvenationandstrengthasthe“ChineseDream,’’athemehehaspromotedsince
takingoffice.
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