ACCESS UPDATE
The UK General Election: The Results
British Prime Minister David Cameron and his wife Samantha arrive back at 10 Downing Street in London following his
surprising victory in the election (©NTBscanpix)
11 MAY 2015
BY RICHARD PEEL
Introduction
This is the second of two articles on the UK general election. At the end of the first article,
readers were invited to pick the winner of the election by choosing one of these results:
A
B
C
D
The incumbent Prime
Labour inches ahead
The Conservatives just
The Conservatives just
Minister David
of the Conservatives in pip Labour, and
pip Labour but
Cameron wins more
the House of
Cameron forms a
Cameron is unable to
seats than Labour, and
Commons and forms a
government
form a government.
forms a coalition
coalition government
supported by UKIP and Miliband becomes PM
government with Lib
with SNP and Lib Dem
some Northern Irish
and leads a minority
Dem support, as now.
support.
MPs.
government, needing
support on a day-today basis.
Well, as it turned out, all four options proved incorrect. The truth is that everybody,
including all the professional opinion polls, got it wrong. The “closest race ever” was
expected, and all the pundits predicted that no one party would win a majority in the House
of Commons. It was assumed that a period of negotiations would follow, during which party
leaders would try to patch up a coalition or alliance that could support a government.
But it was not like that. On the day, the Conservatives won 331 seats; Labour won 232. Not
much of a neck-and-neck race there. The total number of seats in the House of Commons is
650, so those 331 seats gave the Conservatives, of course, the very overall majority that no
one thought they, or anyone else, would win. David Cameron did not have to look around
for partners. By 12 o’clock on 8th May he had already been formally asked by the Queen to
continue as prime minister.
Here are the results of the 2015 general election:
http://www.bbc.com/news/election/2015/results
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The pollsters
A couple of more words about the polls. There was only one poll that got it right, and that
was the exit poll on the day of the election. This is a poll based on the answers given by
people coming out of the polling stations when asked how they had voted; the results of the
exit poll were made known at 10 p.m., when the polling stations closed. The exit poll
predicted a win for the Conservatives, a landslide for the Scottish National Party, and that
the Liberal Democrats would win only 10 seats. To that, former Liberal Democrat leader
Paddy Ashdown, said, “I can tell you – that is wrong. If these exit polls are right, I'll publicly
eat my hat.” In fact the Liberal Democrats won only eight seats, and Ashdown, a few hours
later, did eat a hat cake (made of marzipan) on TV! This was light-hearted fun. But it was
true, those exit polls were telling a whole new story. And they were right, while all the
earlier opinion polls were wrong.
Turnout in UK elections is sometimes a bit low, but not as low as this photograph suggests. This year turnout was 66.1%.
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Or rather, wrong about the big question about which party would emerge strongest, and
how it could form a government. But about some of the other questions, they were not so
far off. It is time to look at the results of the election, and we start with Scotland.
Scotland
The opinion polls were roughly right about Scotland, where they had predicted a massive
victory for the Scottish National Party. In fact, the SNP did even better than expected. On the
morning after the election their leader, Nicola Sturgeon, said: “Never in my wildest dreams
did I imagine we’d win 56 out of 59 seats.” For that’s what they did. It was an extraordinary
result.
First Minister of Scotland Nicola Sturgeon takes a selfie with young SNP supporters (NTBscanpix)
Nicola Sturgeon is generally regarded as the “star” of the election campaign, with her very
articulate and pungent style both on the platform and when answering journalists’
questions. But wait a minute, you might be saying. Had she not said that one of her principal
aims was to get David Cameron out of 10 Downing Street? Agreed, she was the outstanding
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politician of the campaign, but the very man she wanted to dislodge from 10 Downing Street
is in fact more strongly entrenched there now, after the election, than before it. There are
other questions many people are asking. Will the SNP soon start demanding a new
referendum on Scottish independence? What is the glue that holds the SNP together: its
pro-Scottish nationalism or its left-wing political programme or boredom and
disappointment with the Scottish Labour Party? Can this astonishing SNP popularity last in a
robust democracy?
For an American take on Nicola Sturgeon, see
http://www.nytimes.com/2015/05/06/world/europe/nicola-sturgeon-snp-britishelection.html?ref=liveblog&_r=0
The 8th May – quite a day
So, on 8th May, Tory leader David Cameron was as pleased as punch, as he had every right
to be, having done what no one had said he could do. Labour leader Ed Miliband and Lib
Dem leader Nick Clegg were pale with disappointment, and both resigned as leaders of their
party. So did Nigel Farage of Ukip. Three resignations within 52 minutes. Party leaders were
disappearing even quicker than unsuccessful football managers.
England: the Conservatives and Labour
When we look at the other UK countries in more detail, some fascinating patterns and
trends emerge. We take England first, and it was here that the Conservatives dealt the
knock-out blow to Labour hopes. Labour actually increased its overall percentage of the vote
in England by 3.6%, and this, you might think, ought to have translated into winning seats
from other parties. However, most of these new votes were, it seems, won in seats where
Labour was already safe, and not in the marginal seats held by the Conservatives – seats
which Labour simply had to win to have any hope of matching the Tories in the House of
Commons. But they didn’t win them. Instead they lost seats where they themselves had had
only a small majority.
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It is worth noting that the Conservative share of the vote in the whole of England increased
by only 1.4% compared with 2010. How, then, did they mange to win so many new seats?
There are two probable answers. First, there was the Liberal Democrats’ collapse. The Tories
won 25 seats from the Lib Dems. Secondly, Ukip entered the contest as a far more
formidable force than five years earlier, as expected, and stole votes from everyone else.
The interesting thing was that they seem to have stolen votes from Labour as much as, or
even more than, they did from the Conservatives. So Labour’s hope that Ukip would pull
voters away from the Conservatives in such large numbers that it would open the door to
their own candidates in lots of marginal constituencies failed to materialise.
There is one grain of comfort for Labour, and that is London. The capital has 73 seats in the
House of Commons. Labour increased its share of the vote here, and ended up with 45 seats,
gaining seven, three from the Conservatives and four from the Liberal Democrats. Labour’s
main strength is in inner London. The Tories have 27 London MPs, generally from the outer
suburbs, while the Liberal Democrats have only one.
Wales and Northern Ireland
In Wales, Plaid Cymru held onto their 3 seats, but the real winners here were the
Conservatives, who, in a brilliant result for them, picked up three new seats. Labour is still
the strongest party in Wales, but this is little cause for comfort. Labour had been hoping for
gains in Wales, but in fact lost one seat. The Liberal Democrats had a miserable election here
as everywhere else and lost two seats, while Ukip won no seats at all, but took 12% of the
vote.
The result in Northern Ireland, with its own parties and, in many ways, its own politics, was
expected to be critical since some of its MPs could have supported a minority government.
The results show small changes from the previous election.
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The Liberal Democrats and Ukip
Here are two very contrasting stories.
Pollsters had predicted the election would be difficult for the Liberal Democrats. It was in
fact much more than difficult – it was disastrous. They won only 8 seats, compared with 57
in the 2010 election. Let us remember that the Lib Dems had been in a coalition government
with the Conservatives for five years. The Conservative success in 2015 shows that the
government was popular. Why, then, was one of the member parties (the Lib Dems)
punished so savagely, while the other (the Conservatives) were not? That is a question many
will be asking in the aftermath of the election.
Ukip, the UK Independence Party, which had won two by-elections between the 2010 and
2015 general elections, in fact lost one of these seats, and did not manage to win any others.
Their leader, Nigel Farage, failed to win the seat he was fighting. This might all seem a
humiliation, but it should be noted that Ukip increased its percentage of the total UK votes
markedly, going from just over 3% to 12½%. Ukip is unlikely to disappear from British
politics.
Why did David Cameron win?
This question needs to be re-phrased: Why did the Conservatives win far more marginal
seats than Labour? Main reason: Cameron convinced a large number of people that the
strengthening UK economy is the result of his five years as prime minister. Labour did not
challenge him effectively on this. So, rightly or wrongly, the idea stuck.
Secondary reason: Labour failed to convince enough people that the huge pockets of
poverty that still exist in the UK and the vast difference in wealth and life-style between the
richest and the poorest are things a government ought to put on the top of its list of
priorities. A more effective Labour campaign would have made much of their view that the
Tories did not have it at the top of their list.
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Thirdly, a lot of people want a referendum on membership of the EU. The Tory pledge on
this satisfied thousands of EU-sceptics who might otherwise have voted Ukip.
Fourthly, a lot of people see David Cameron as a likeable man with an efficient style.
Why did the Labour challenge wither away, and why did the Liberal
Democrats flop?
Some say Labour under Ed Miliband appeared too left-wing, and that it should move back to
the centre of politics, as it did under Tony Blair, who won three general elections. Others
complain that Labour is not left-wing enough, and that the SNP blossomed because people
in Scotland felt Labour had deserted them. This, of course, is a traditional dilemma for any
social democratic party – to strike the right balance between market forces and a planned
economy, between an absence of regulating controls and the existence of controls that
shape society, between low taxation and higher taxation for the well-off, between
privatisation and public services. A modern society is a mix of these things – but how exactly
should it be mixed? Moreover, should there be less emphasis on the state and its role, and
more emphasis on the local communities and their role?
Labour must go into the thinking box and find out what it must do to win the next election.
Obviously, finding a new leader is not enough.
The Liberal Democrats must fear that they will be reduced to permanent small-party status,
like so many liberal parties in Europe that were once mighty but are now puny. Why were
they punished so severely by the voters? Nick Clegg spent five years as Deputy prime
minister and his party was “in government” and not, as the Lib Dems usually function, a
protest party on the opposition back benches. This obviously did not please most of those
who voted for them five years ago. The party had lost its bite, as well as having been guilty
of some about-turns. Its support of Conservative policies for increased student fees
undoubtedly lost it the student vote, for example.
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Maybe the coming EU referendum – the Lib Dems being a fervently pro-EU party – will give
them a chance to get noticed and to make a renewed impact on the political scene.
Where did the Lib Dem votes go?
The easy answer would be that they went to Ukip. But this is unlikely. The Lib Dems are
ardent EU supporters, while the EU is anathema to Ukip. The Lib Dems are, generally a
“liberal” party, supporting freedoms and suspicious of control and regulation, while Ukip
wants strict controls and regulations in some areas, especially immigration. So it is unlikely
many voters walked the path from Lib Dem to Ukip.
It is far more likely that thousands who voted for the Lib Dems in 2010 voted Conservative or
Labour this time, while thousands of Conservative and Labour voters from 2010 went over
to Ukip this time. In addition, large numbers of Lib Dem voters almost certainly moved over
to the Green party (the Greens’ vote share went up 2.8%).
A fair system?
The outgoing leader of Ukip, Nigel Farage, is justifiably fed up with the Westminster system.
He points out that the SNP won a 4.7% share of the total UK vote, and won 56 seats, while
Ukip won a 12.5% share and won just one seat. How’s that for democratic fairness?
For many foreign observers it is unbelievable that a mature democracy can tolerate such a
system. However, the prospect of days, even weeks, of negotiations between party leaders
after an election, with the aim of finding a workable alliance that could govern the country,
is something many people in Britain seem instinctively to dislike. And the big parties are, for
selfish reasons, content with the existing system.
What now?
The Observer journalist Andrew Rawnsley said on TV on 8th May that British politics, as is
made evident in this general election result, reflect a fractured and divided nation: fractured
and divided into geographical regions and social classes. It will be a major challenge for
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David Cameron to find a policy towards Scotland that respects Scottish aspirations but also
holds the UK together. He is also pledged to hold a referendum on Britain’s continued
membership of the EU, and it is important that this does not provoke deep divisions.
Moreover, in his short speech outside 10 Downing Street on 8th May, Cameron spoke of his
vision of a “one-nation” government. In this he was possibly echoing the best traditions of
the Conservative Party: to strive to benefit everybody in society, not just those who are
already on the sunny side.
He has been prime minister for five years with the Liberal Democrats putting their foot on
the brake whenever he was tempted to listen to his own more outspoken back-bench MPs.
Now that foot is no longer there. Will he listen to his own Tory back-benchers more ardently,
and step on the accelerator and swing right? Or will he reach out for a more “one-nation”
set of policies? He must remember that his majority is very small. He must hope he does not
lose seats in by-elections. He must keep his party united (not always easy). He might
sometimes be kept awake by the very words “Scotland” and “referendum”.
But he won on 7th May, which no one expected him to do. That cannot be taken away from
him.
Language note: Ukip and UKIP are both used as standard names of the United Kingdom
Independent Party. The Conservatives are often called “the Tories”, by themselves and by
others. The SNP is the Scottish National Party, not the “Scottish Nationlist Party”. One sees
both “Prime Minister” and “prime minister” used in respected newspapers and journals (but
one does not find both forms used in the same article).
Glossary of words and terms used when discussing elections:
http://www.bbc.com/news/election-2015-32613441
For a clear, and light-hearted, presentation of the UK political system see:
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/video/2015/may/07/general-election-2015-explainerfor-non-brits-video
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Tasks
1
It is easy to work out which parties lose from the “winner takes all” system of singlemember constituencies, and which benefit.
Make your own list of LOSERS and WINNERS. Include at least six parties.
2
Check out the results in the Brighton Pavilion and Norwich South constituencies (use
this link: http://www.bbc.com/news/politics/constituencies ) to see how the Green
party fared. These were reckoned to be the constituencies where they had the best
chance of success.
3
The Great Yarmouth result
http://www.bbc.com/news/politics/constituencies/E14000717
a
Who won?
b
How did the Ukip candidate do?
c
Which party or parties did the Ukip candidate take votes from, do you think?
d
Who was the election biggest loser in Great Yarmouth?
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The Gower result
http://www.bbc.com/news/politics/constituencies/W07000046
a
Which candidate won?
b
How big was his majority?
c
This was a very close race: what does it tell you about British politics?
d
Find out what you can about the TUSC party. What is its main standpoint? Is it a leftwing or right-wing party?
5
Wales
http://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/wales-news/general-election-resultsconservatives-win-9211102
a
What on earth is the Danish prime minister doing in Wales on the night of 7th May?
b
What can you say about the performance of Plaid Cymru in 2015?
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6
Northern Ireland
http://www.u.tv/Vote15 and
http://www.dfpni.gov.uk/links/links_northern_ireland_political_parties.htm
a
Was there any change in party representation, compared with 2010?
b
Which party in Northern Ireland is closest to the British Labour party, and how did it
do in the 2015 election?
c
Some Northern Irish MPs will not take their places in the House of Commons. Which
ones? Why not?
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Labour
What must Labour do now?
Tony Blair: We must fashion a role for government that is strategic and empowering of
individuals; which understands that today people will not trust or want the state to do
everything for them, but who do want to know that government is at their side, ready and,
as important, effective enough to deliver for them when they need it. If we aren’t the
reformers of public services and the welfare state, the Tories will be the destroyers of them.
Chuka Umunna: We targeted 80 Tory-held seats in England, but made a net gain of just four.
Of the 10 seats in the three southern regions outside London which we won in 2010, we
actually lost two. It was in England that David Cameron won his majority and put a Labourled government out of reach. Why did we do so badly there? First, we spoke to our core
voters but not to aspirational, middle-class ones. We talked about the bottom and top of
society, about the minimum wage and zero-hour contracts, about mansions and non-doms.
But we had too little to say to the majority of people in the middle.
a
Do Blair and Umunna basically agree? If so, what is their main point? If not, what do
they disagree about?
b
Is there, do you think, anything else Labour supporters are saying must be done?
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