2015 International Conference on Management Science & Engineering (22th) October 19-22, 2015 Dubai, United Arab Emirates Prediction of Location of Worldwide Cloud Cities at the Global Scale ZHANG Hao-zhe1,ZHAO Zhi-qing1,MA Tao2,FANG Hui3,JIANG Jian3,YI Qi-sen2 1 School of Architecture, Harbin Institute of Technology, Harbin 150001, P.R.China 2 School of Management, Harbin Institute of Technology, Harbin 150001, P.R.China 3 Urban Planning and Design Institute of Harbin Institute of Technology, Harbin 150001, P.R.China Abstract: In recent years, as the demand for big data storage and computing services blossoms, the cloud computing industry starts flourishing. The rapid development of Cloud Computing Industry is expected to impulse the emerging of Cloud Cities, a kind of new cities featured with cloud computing industry. Could Cities could be generalized as a model integrating the Cloud Computing Industry with human habitat. In the context of information society, the appearance and location of cloud computing industry and cloud cities affect reconstruction of pattern of worldwide economic and political activity. This article, through analysis of the characteristics of the cloud industry, summarizes the key indicators affecting location of worldwide cloud cities. Based on the relative public data resources, this research maps potential location of cloud cities at the scale of the globe. Keywords: cloud city, cloud computing service, location, distribution, data center 1 Introduction In recent years, with the rapid development of IT Industry and the rise in demand for big data processing service, a number of large-scale data processing services companies (for example: Google, IBM, etc.) have emerged, which gave birth to the vigorous development of the Cloud Industry. Like other industries, the cloud industry infrastructure operation, maintenance requires a certain support from people logistics. That allows a class of city-settlements - Cloud City - characterized by cloud industry to appear. Cloud Cities are supposed to provide worldwide users with cloud computing services based on modern internet, satellite communications technologies. Massive cloud data processing center will become an important symbol of such cities. Because the location and layout of the cloud infrastructure industry are subject to certain conditions, therefore, the pattern of the location choice of cloud cities will present certain regularity features. The distribution mode of cloud cities will have a profound impact on global political, economic, cultural and even regional security. This paper, in a global perspective, focuses on those key factors that affect cloud urban 978-1-4673-6513-0/15/$31.00 ©2015 IEEE layout, and predicts the location of cloud cities worldwide. 2 Cloud industry and cloud city 2.1 Cloud industry Cloud Industry refers to a series of industry in general, where cloud computing services industry is the core, including: cloud computing services, cloud computing equipment manufacturing, infrastructure services, and so on.[19,24] Cloud computing services are realized in the form of three services: Infrastructure as a Service (IaaS), Platform as a Services (PaaS), and Software as a Service (SaaS) . [2,32,33] IaaS refers to the service providing data center, storage and other hardware and software resources. PaaS means the services providing working platform for users operating, or developing new applications. SaaS refers to the services allowing users to install applications in service providers’ data center, and to use the needed softwares from the network (Fig.1). Fig.1 Model of cloud industry components Source: MIIT and telecommunications research institute, 2012 2.2 Cloud city The Cloud City is a type of cities where cloud industry is the main features of industrial development. Like many other types of cities labeled with such as industry, tourism etc., the Cloud City provides cloud computing services worldwide. Thus the Cloud City is a kind of functional entity transforming Cloud Computing technique into the one of the key supportive condition of - 1669 - people habitat. The basic model of the Cloud City could be summarized as the combination of urban entity and Cloud Industry (Fig.2). The Cloud Industry becomes the emerging leading industries in the cloud cities. Data processing industry clusters will appear at large in cloud cities, and become a new driving force of economic and social development. Fig.2 Model of cloud cities Source: Drawn by Jian Jiang. There have been a number of cloud infrastructure industry base all over the world, they can be regarded as the prototype of the future cloud cities (Fig.3). They include: the cloud base in Silicon Valley Industrial Park, North Carolina Triangle Science Park (RTP), New York government cloud base; large-scale cloud computing centers in Ireland; Saxony - Anhalt and Munich cloud computing demonstration area, Germany; the advanced data centers in southern France; Tokyo cloud infrastructure centers, Osaka data center clusters in Japan and so on. It illustrates the emergence of the prototype of cloud cities illustrates the trend of the Cloud Industry becoming leading industry around the world. 3 Key conditions of cloud cities appearance Cloud cities appear together with the Cloud Industry (especially cloud computing industry) in symbiosis, so their distribution is affected by location tends of cloud computing industry. The appearance of cloud cities will be sensitive to the following conditions: climate, energy, communication, and security. 3.1 Climate The appearance of cloud cities are highly sensitive to the regional climate condition. Large-scale cloud computing requires constant temperature and humidity of the working environment. The power consumption in servers rooms in operation could be more than $ 3,000/m2. 30%-40% of energy is used for cooling the equipment and server room [19]. Taking advantage of lower local weather temperature for natural cooling could save a lot of energy, and reduce operation costs significantly. Therefore, cloud industries, for energy and costs saving, will be more inclined to locate in the high-latitude areas, which will most likely become the next gathering areas of cloud cities. 3.2 Energy Super capability of data processing can greatly enhance resource utilization, while inevitably results in problems of high energy consumption [5,3,12]. Energy consumption of cloud computing industry is very huge. A 45,000 Kw data center equipped with 100,000 servers annually consumes power more than 400 million Kwh. Such a huge demand for power greatly challenges those areas with energy shortage. Even if transmitting power from neighbor areas, 10 percent loss in long-distance Thus, power distribution must be considered [19]. sufficient energy will be important factors for cloud cities layout in the future. 3.3 Communication Data processing services for local or the globe is an important economic pillar of cloud cities. Relying on highly developed internet and satellite communications technologies, service commission, operation and outcomes delivery can completely break through the restrictions of space [4]. Cloud cities locating in the high-latitude areas provide real-time data processing serve for equatorial countries without constraints of the Fig.3 Location of main cloud computing region Source: Data from white papers of china cloud computing infrastructure industrial map (2011) p21-24. - 1670 - increasing transportation costs due to long distance transportation in traditional industries. The extent of convenience of access to internet and communication satellites will become one of the most important factors influencing the location of cloud cities. 3.4 Security Comparing to traditional cities, the cloud cities pay more attention to regional security factors in locating. "Security" here not only refers to the common meaning of "natural disaster security", but also includes military, political and international financial security. Human society increasingly depends on data processing and storage. It can be expected that most of activities such as politics, economics, and social intercourse in reality will require more and more cloud computing services in the future. That would make "data" an important "strategic resource" for a country, thus the data processing and storage related facilities will likely become main military targets. Therefore, cloud cities will inevitably tend to some areas of highly military security [6]. At the same time, because of the sensitivity of cloud industry to climate and energy, areas which are suitable to gather cloud industry would arrange in limited regions of the globe. Based on the communication of internet, international transaction of cloud services will become the main trend of the development of cloud industry in future. When a country or company buys cloud services from other countries, political environment and financial investment environment of the cloud service provider countries will be one of primary factors. 4 Types of cloud cities According to the section of cloud industry in the all the industries of a city, cloud cities could be divided as mixed cloud city and professional cloud city. 4.1 Mixed cloud city Mixed cloud cities will be the most common type of the cloud cities in the future. Cloud computing industry and other industries co-exist in this type of cities. Similar to the traditional cities that we have usually seen, mixed cloud cities take cloud computing industry as one of the leading several industries, and have a variety of industries mixed developing. Such mixed cloud cities tend to "Graft" cloud industrial base on existed cities. Recently, many cities have emerged the industrial parks with "cloud technology" as the theme. Although many of them still contained commercial speculation gimmick, but it implies the prototype of the mixed cloud cities have begun to develop. (Fig.4) 4.2 Professional cloud city Professional cloud cities will be a special type of cloud cities. The unique nature of the cloud industry makes climate, clean energy, security factors and broadband capability condition become the important Services ... Industry Tourism Mixed Cloud City Agriculture Cloud Industry Culture Mining Fig.4 Model of mixed cloud cities Source: Produced by Jian Jiang locating factors. Because of the highly automatic operation and communication of cloud computing services, cloud industry can stay away from the supply of human resources and product sales market (Because the main products and services are available through the online transmission). It indicates that professional cloud cities might emerge in some remote areas with the suitable objective conditions. Because of cloud service base still need routine maintenance and security, a city-agglomeration could be needed near to the base. That forms the professional cloud city. (Fig.5) This type of city will be similar to some of the former Soviet Union, which take function of mining and energy supply, such as mining city Baku and nuclear city Prypiat. The location of professional cloud city is likely to meet more than one needs of factors above, that makes this particular city form can be achieved. For example, Some areas are both energy-rich area and unmanned area with colder climate. Low energy costs and lower air conditioning usage can significantly reduce energy costs, so that a certain amount cloud services gathered in the area will have economic efficiency. Such benefits can be paid the costs of the construction of human settlements, therefore, a professional cloud city emerges. Fig.5 Model of professional cloud cities Source: Produced by Jian Jiang 5 Location of cloud cities 5.1 Predicting indicators According to the nature of cloud city, the - 1671 - temperature, social stability, safety, convenience of geological communication and energy supply should be chosen as predictors. 5.1.1 Temperature Annual average temperature is selected as the judging factor in the dimension of temperature. Temperature conditions directly affect the cooling expense in cloud computing industries for normal operating. Usually, cooling expense is account for up to 30 percent of total operating costs of cloud computing servers [25]. The basic hypothesis of temperature impacting on location of cloud cities is that lower temperature a region is, the more suitable for cloud computing infrastructure construction, therefore more potential for cloud cities development. However, when the annual average temperature falls below a certain level, the effect of temperature factor on cloud computing centers cooling became insignificant. Correspondingly, when the annual average temperature of a region is above a certain level, the temperature factor will lead to dramatically increased consumption for cooling, which makes this region no longer suitable for the development of cloud cities. According to the regional classification for cloud industries development in "Data Center Layout Guidance" jointly issued by Chinese five ministries [19], a classification scale is made. In that scale, the globe is divided into five leveled regions by average annual temperatures. Each level corresponds to a certain score. However, in the regions level 5 (with an average annual temperature of 10 ℃ or above) , cloud computing services will have an excessive energy consumption due to the over warm climate. That disadvantage can hardly be offset by other factors. Thus, level 5 is assigned as "inappropriate construction". Tab.1 Scale of temperature factor Classification Score The annual Level 1:Below -10℃; 40 average 30 temperature Level 2:Over 10℃ but under 0℃; Level 3:Over 0℃ but under 20 5℃; Level 4:Over 5℃ but under 10 10℃; Inappropriate Level 5:Over 10℃ construction Source: New, M.G., M. Hulme and P.D. Jones, 1999: Representing 20th century space-time climate variability. I: Development of a 1961-1990 mean monthly terrestrial climatology. J. Climate. 12, 829-856. Fig.6 Classification by annual average temperature of the globe Source: Drawn by Jian Jiang according to New, M.G., M. Hulme and P.D. Jones, 1999: Representing 20th century space-time climate variability. I: Development of a 1961-1990 mean monthly terrestrial climatology. J. Climate. 12, 829-856. 5.1.2 Social stability Social stability is the issue which must be taken full consideration, when building a cloud computing center internationally. Data will become an important resource for development of human society in the context of information era, which makes overseas construction of cloud computing center assess the risks of outbreak of wars, political instability[7,23]. At the same time, the international cloud computing infrastructure construction must take into account the risk of expropriation of assets by foreign countries. Therefore, political stability, war risk and financial transfers risk, are chosen as the predicting indicators for cloud cities location in the dimension of social stability. The data source of those indicators is published by the United States Department of Commerce for foreign investment. Each of those indicators is divided into three levels. Level 1 means the most suitable condition for cloud cities, scored as 40. Level 2 means suitable condition, scored as 20. While, the Level 3 means social stability is too poor to develop cloud cities, assigned as“inappropriate construction". Tab.2 Social stability index classification Classification Score Level 1: Political stability highest 40 Level 2: Political stability Political 20 moderate Stability Inappropriate Level 3: Political stability lowest construction Level 1: lowest risk 40 Index War Risk Level 2: moderate risk Level 1: lowest risk Inappropriate construction 40 Level 2: moderate risk 20 Level 3: highest risk Inappropriate construction Level 3: highest risk As shown in Fig. 6, areas with temperature below -10 ℃ are very beneficial for the development of the cloud cities. Northern USA, Canada, northern Europe, northern Chinese, northern Russia, and Antarctica have the natural advantage for layout of the cloud industry development. Financial Transfers Risk 20 As shown in Fig.7, political stability has a significant difference from one country to another. Political stability is higher in countries like the United States, Canada, Western Europe, northern Europe, - 1672 - Australia, Brazil, India, South Africa, Antarctica, which are suitable for the cloud industry developing in safety. most difficult to prevent. That’s why geological safety as an indicator to judge seism risk. However, due to the construction of modern human technology can resist the vast majority of seismic activity, this research does not assign the most geologically active areas as “zero” score, instead of “inappropriate construction” area. Tab.3 Geological safety index classification Classification The Seism Risk Fig.7 Classification by political security Source: http://acetool.commerce.gov/political-security-risks As shown in Fig.8, USA, Canada, Western Europe, Australia, South Africa, Kazakhstan, Europe, Antarctica have the lowest war risk. Score Level 1: the most stable geological activity area 40 Level 2: geological activity relatively stable zone; Level 3: geological activity area; 30 Level 4: frequent geological activity area; 10 Level 5: the most frequent geological activity area. 0 20 Source: Munich Re Group, 2009: World Map of Natural Hazards. www.munichre.com/nathan As shown in Fig.10, in the US West Coast, West Coast in South America, East Africa, Southeast Asia, earthquakes occur at higher risk rating, and are not suitable for the cloud cities, while other areas are relatively low-risk. Fig.8 Classification by war and crime risk Source: http://acetool.commerce.gov/political-security-risks As shown in Fig.9, China, United States, Canada, Western Europe, northern Europe, Australia, Algeria, Saudi Arabia, Antarctica and so on have the lowest risk of financial transfers, and are suitable for the layout of cloud cities, while other regions have relatively high risks. Fig.10 Classification by seism risk Source: Munich Re Group, 2009: World Map of Natural Hazards. www.munichre.com/nathan Fig.9 Classification by transfer risk Source: http://acetool.commerce.gov/political-security-risks 5.1.3 Geological safety Involving geological safety to cloud computing infrastructure and city construction feasibility and location, it also has influence on cloud city layout [11]. In all the geological disasters, earthquake is the most closely to human construction activities, as well as the 5.1.4 Communication Because cloud computing industry mainly provides large-scale data processing, storage and computing services, Internet speed and network transmission costs will be an important cost cloud computing infrastructure running. Convenient degree in communications, we select Internet network connection speed and network transmission costs as predictors. The broadband speed distribution in the world as shown in Fig.11, the network transmission speed America, Canada, Western Europe, northern Europe, Australia, Russia, Japan, Korea and other countries or regions was significantly higher than in other regions, is suitable for the layout of the cloud industry, which in other parts of the cloud industry development will be the broadband speed. - 1673 - Tab.4 Classification index for communication convinience Index Classification Score Broadband Speed Level 1: the highest 40 transmission speed Level 2: high transmission 30 speed Level 3: Moderate 20 transmission speed Level 4: low transmission 10 speed Continued Index Classification Score Broadband Level 5: the lowest 0 Speed transmission speed Broadband Level 1: the highest 40 Cost transmission cost Level 2: high transmission cost 30 Level 3: Moderate 20 transmission cost Level 4: low transmission cost 10 Level 5: the lowest 0 transmission cost Source: Average Connection Speed(Mbps) Akamai State of the Internet Report-2nd Quarter http://www.akamai.com/stateoftheinternet/; http://geography.oii.ox.ac.uk/?page=home 5.1.5 Energy The energy dependence of cloud computing industry determines the future of cloud city layout tendency of clean energy in rich regions. Nuclear power plant represents the trend of future large-scale supply of clean energy, so the choice of nuclear power station has been built as a judgment area of energy supply can meet the development needs of the cloud city index. The world has built nuclear power plant generally located in the east coast of North America, northern and Western Europe, Japan and South Korea in the three area, the remaining amount of scattered. Forecast in the area three and scattered areas assigned to 20 points, other areas assigned to zero. Nuclear power plant Tab.5 Energy supply capacity scale Classification Score Level 1: Area or location have 20 nuclear power plants Level 2: No nuclear power 0 plant area. Source: Nuclear plants are built in earthquake zones around the world http://www.theguardian.com/news/datablog/2011/mar/18/nucle ar-reactors-power-stations-world-list-map Construction Status of nuclear power plants in the world as shown in Fig.13, mainly in the following areas, including the eastern United States, Europe, Japan, Korea, nuclear power plants for energy supply can effectively reduce the cost of operation of the cloud industry, and China, India, South America is also a small part of the region to build a nuclear power plant, and energy supply costs in other regions is relatively high. Fig.11 Classification by broadband speed Source: Average Connection Speed(Mbps) Akamai State of the Internet Report-2nd Quarter http://www.akamai.com/stateoftheinternet/ Broadband cost distribution in the world as shown in Fig.12, the network transmission cost Canada, Europe, Australia, Africa, the local area was significantly higher than in other regions, will increase the operating costs of the cloud industry, and other areas of low cost network will promote the cloud industry operation. Fig.13 Allocation of worldwide nuclear plants Source:Simon Rogers, Nuclear plants are built in earthquake zones around the world http://www.theguardian.com/news/datablog/2011/mar/18/nucle ar-reactors-power-stations-world-list-map Fig.12 Classification by cost of monthly broadband subscription Source: Broadband Affordability. http://geography.oii.ox.ac.uk/?page=home 5.2 Data analysis and score result Using multi-factor overlay and a comprehensive scoring system complete a forecast analysis. Among them, the temperature, the political stability, the risk of war and four indicators of financial risk transfer "hard-compensated indicators." These factors, if at a disadvantage, are difficult to be offset by other factors advantage. For example, a place has high risk of a war, - 1674 - and the condition of the other aspects are difficult to make, so no matter how excellent the risk of war to the negative impact of the investment. Therefore, it is hard-compensated indicators suitable for the construction of a place if cloud the city's "dominance." Such indicators are most suitable for the construction of a city cloud is assigned as "inappropriate construction." When factors stack, such as the case of a region of a factor rating of "inappropriate construction" in the region, it is regardless that how high the total score of other items are classified as suitable for built-up areas. "Difficult to compensate categories of indicators" determine whether the area is suitable for developing cloud city. Broadband speed and broadband costs, energy supply and seism probability indicators are "can-be-compensated indicators." If some aspects of such factors at a disadvantage, it may be offset by related construction activities as well as the advantages of the latter part of other indicators. For instance, the high cost of network transmission cases, it may cause reduced network costs through the construction of related infrastructure. It may also be due to local temperature conditions can help reduce energy costs cloud computing server to obtain a remedy. "can-be-compensated indicators" control the relative fitness cloud city built (Fig.14) After analyzed multiple factors superimposed, cloud city constructability evaluation map appears (Fig.15). The figure represented in grayscale gradation cloud city suitable to build resistance rating. The higher the score the figure (gray value, the more shallow) areas more suitable for building cloud city, whereas the more Fig.14 Model for cloud city location suitability analysis Source: Drawn by Jian Jiang. Fig.15 Evaluation of possibility of cloud cities emergency Source : Drawn by Jian Jiang. - 1675 - discomfort built cloud city. It can be seen in worldwide, regional cities suitable to build cloud score the highest score of 250 and the lowest score of 0 point. Temperature and social stability factors in inappropriate construction area, to determine the areas score less than 140 points for the area unsuitable for cloud urban construction. It is suitable for construction of cloud city area scores between 140-250. In the cloud city appropriate building area, will be divided into 200 or more areas identified as a suitable construction area (blue line delineated area). The area between 140 to 200 points as the two level of appropriate building area (yellow line delineated area). In a suitable construction area, a small part of the score more than 230, and the present form, this area will determine the most suitable for the construction of Cloud City area (red line delineated area). 6 Discussion 6.1 The most likely cloud city area By overlaying analysis factors images, the countries or regions worldwide suitable for cloud cities could be determined. Cloud cities will be most likely seen in the regions northern to the north latitude 40 ° , and southern to the south latitude 45 °. That is mainly affected by temperature conditions (Fig.15). In north America, Seattle area, Minnesota Minneapolis area, near the Great Lakes region, northern Alaska; in Europe, Poland, Lithuania, Latvia, Sweden, the Netherlands, Belgium, part of Ireland; In Asia, the northern part of Hokkaido in Japan, score as high as 220 points or more, these region with the greatest potential for cloud cities development. In the countries suitable for building cloud cities, in the northern part of the northern hemisphere, the United States, Canada, Western Europe, Scandinavia, northern China and western China (plateau region), northern Japan, Mongolia etc. has the maximum possibility of development of cloud cities. Most of those areas close to populated areas, which will further increase the likelihood of developing cloud cities. North America, Canada and Western Europe, and the Nordic region score the highest, and will likely form cloud cities. Northern and western China, Mongolia, mainly restricted by social stability expectation, are the secondary suitable for cloud cities. In the southern hemisphere, except the Antarctica, only southern Chile is supposed to be suitable for cloud cities. Because the harsh climate condition, it is far more difficult to construct cloud Cities in the Antarctica than in the southern Chile. Therefore, the future of the southern region of Chile will most likely become the core region of cloud cities of the southern hemisphere. 6.2 Analysis of the main restricting factors in appropriate construction areas There also exist objective factors of cloud city development in the suitable construction area. Russia, in the presence of cloud cities, is suitable for developing cloud industry and cloud city for the reason of appropriate geographical conditions. However, its social security rating is pretty low to attract sufficient cross-border investment, which restricting the development of could city. Similarly, China and Mongolia also have adverse effects by the social security rating. From the climatic conditions, the northern China and Mongolia in the area suitable for the development of cloud city, but social security rating for cross-border investment is unfavorable. In the different way, the large scale economy and rising population make China to be one of the most dynamic market in the world. Although the political and social factors are the concerns of international capital investment in China, domestic investment still can motivate the appropriate area within a number of cloud cities. Meanwhile, the low degree of network transportation also affected the pace of worldwide cloud city development in China. Due to the high transmission cost, the area like Canada, Western Europe and Nordic region to a certain extent restricts the development of cloud industry and cloud city. Facing the construction of cloud city, the main challenge in southern Chile including: The higher the risk of war and earthquake risk, Lower network transmission speed and higher transport costs, Weak status of energy supply. 6.3 Professional or mixed The future of cloud city will appear in two models, hybrid type and professional type. These two modes depend mainly on the placement of the local cloud industry. In those economically developed cities which have mature leading industries and good development of industrial system, implanting cloud industry will make it to be a hybrid could city. If the city construction and economical social development is relatively backward, industry development lags behind and lack of primary structure of leading industries, it could be easier form to a professional cloud city. Such as the Nordic fishery is the leading industry in northeast area and China agriculture is the leading industry area. At the same time, due to the low price of land in these areas, it is easy to attract cloud industry location and promote city residents as to pick up the relevant technical personnel living accept cloud industry. Accordingly, the future of northern Japan, the northern United States, southern Canada, western and northern Europe as well as urban central area in northern China will likely appear hybrid cloud cities. In rural areas these areas, Greenland, northern Canada and southern Chile most likely form professional cloud cities. 7 Testimony In recent years a number of large-scale cloud computing center building site large multinational investment trends support the prediction of this study (Fig.16). IBM Company announced in 2012 September officially launched in the domestic construction of the intelligent data center in Canada. The data center is - 1676 - located in Barry, the city of Ontario in Canada. Facebook company launched in Sweden Lulea data center in 2013[8]. Google Company in November 2013 announced plans to invest to expand its Hamina data center in the south of Finland, which is operational from 2011 onwards. Fig.16 Allocation of recent large-scale overseas cloud computing centers invested by big companies Source: http://stor.zol.com.cn/347/3476296.html; http://www.chinacloud.cn/show.aspx?id=13946&cid=11; http://tech.sina.com.cn/it/2011-09-12/20086052666.shtml 8 Conclusion Features of cloud industry and recent construction of cloud infrastructures have proven that appearance and location of cloud cities will be affected by temperature, security, energy supply and communication. Location of cloud cities in the world will distribute unequally. Some regions with superiority of developing cloud cities will be recognized in the globe. Several clusters of cloud cities which provide cloud service world widely will form. Those clusters might guide redistribution of human resource, financial resource, and energy supply internationally. That will bring regional political and economic situation significant impacts. 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