The Role of Information and Communication Technologies in World Politics
Thesis
by
Akhmadjon Yakubov
Submitted in Partial Fulfilment
of the Requirements for the Degree of
Bachelor of Arts
in
International Economic Relations
State University of New York
Empire State College
2015
Reader: Max Hilaire
Table Of Contents
Abstract................................................................................................................................................... 2
Introduction............................................................................................................................................. 3
Chapter 1: The Growth of Global Networks.......................................................................................... 6
Money..............................................................................................................................................7
Data and Information...................................................................................................................... 9
Ideas...............................................................................................................................................11
Chapter 2: The Internet and Politics..................................................................................................... 15
The Internet as a Source of Political Information.........................................................................16
How do Politicians Use the Internet?........................................................................................... 20
E-democracy and E-governance................................................................................................... 23
Appendices....................................................................................................................................27
Chapter 3: Challenges and Security Threats Brought into Politics by ICT..........................................30
Social Networks and Blogs as a Threat to the Regime.................................................................31
Criminal Organizations and Terrorist Activities in Cyberspace...................................................34
Cyberwars - The Wars of the Future?........................................................................................... 38
Excursus........................................................................................................................................ 41
Appendices....................................................................................................................................44
Chapter 4. New Technologies and Battlefields.....................................................................................45
Improvised Explosive Devices..................................................................................................... 45
Drones, Robots, and Unmanned Systems.....................................................................................47
New Ammunition.........................................................................................................................50
Appendices.................................................................................................................................... 53
Conclusion.............................................................................................................................................54
2
Abstract
This thesis is intended to measure the role of Information and Communication
Technologies in Global Politics. First of all it tells readers about the development of
information technologies over the last decade and how they became entangled with
politics. Can information technologies and global networks change the political world?
Did ICT bring something new to already well known politics? New actors maybe? One
of the main questions in this thesis is whether ICT have brought threats to the political
world or not. If so, can these threats be fought with the help of ICT themselves?
Specific examples of the new technological advances such as global networks, robots
and drones, internet, social networks and more will be provided with their effect on the
political scene.
3
Introduction
There has never been a bigger force for change than technology. In particular, we should
highlight how information and communication technologies (after - IT) have grown
(importance and role) since the 1990s and early 2000s. Twenty years ago there were not
so many people who would have believed that today there would already be a huge
growth of the global communication network (the Internet), the growth of the market for
mobile services and the rapid development of IT - all of which determine the direction
of development of other industries. Over the past 20 years, it has been systems of
transmitting data/information that set technological development and seriously changed
not only the activities in the main sectors of the economy, but even popular culture.
There is almost nothing that has not been affected by the IT and internet. You can argue
endlessly about what the Internet has become, but a global network is not the
technology in itself. It is rather a system that has been implemented into IT, aerospace
(satellites), microelectronics and people’s demand for mobility in all types of
communication. This system overtaken the whole of the business, financial, economical
and (what is more important for this paper) the political worlds.
Firstly, there is a need to concentrate on IT itself, to have at least some understandings
about it. Information technology (IT, as well as - information and communication
technology/ ICT for short) -is a process/method of searching, collecting, storing,
processing, supplying and distributing information. Information was, is and always will
be important. As Churchill once said, “[h]e who owns information, owns the world”.
4
Especially in today’s world, technologies have made it possible for information and data
to travel at the speed of light and to be distributed to the masses. Almost everyone uses
mobile phones today and they are a very important tool not only for communicating
with people around the earth, but also for transferring news (information or data). If 20
years ago we mostly got our information from TV or newspapers, today we use the
Internet, where we can get both TV and newspaper information before it actually arrives
on TV or at the kiosk.
Let’s take the example of Tanzania to really see how big the mobile phone market is. In
this country, which is not classified as developed (Western, first world), where more
than half of the population lives on “less than 2 USD a day”, the population of this
country has access to mobile technology.1 “The expansion of mobile telephone service
around the world has, to some degree, increased access in areas where bringing in
ground lines has been difficult. In Cambodia, for example, more than 90% of all
telephones are mobile phones.”2 More interesting is the fact that in some countries
there are more mobile cellular subscriptions than there are people living in that country.
Another example we can take is Panama, where there are double the cellular
subscriptions than population.3 The growth of the Internet is also very important, if not
the most important factor in the pace of technological change. There were only 361
million Internet users in 2000 - in the entire world. For perspective, that’s barely
1
World Bank Group ,
2
CIA Factbook - Cambodia
Internet Usage Statistics provided by InternetWorldStats.com
3
Information & Communication Technologies.
5
two-thirds of the size of Facebook today.4 Speaking of Facebook and other applications
(like Twitter or different online messengers), it is with the help of the Internet and
mobile systems becoming really global that Facebook and Twitter have become
something more than just a social networks for friends. In fact nowadays they can be
seen as political tools. Some see them as tools for freedom and democracy, others as
tools of governments to spy on their own citizens.
4
CIA Factbook - Panama
6
Chapter 1: The Growth of Global Networks
It is no longer a secret that global networks are expanding today. The growing quantities
of information flow through these networks faster and cheaper than ever before. “These
technologically sophisticated networks are reshaping the landscape of politics and
international relations, transforming global commerce, recasting societies and cultures,
and altering policy formulation and implementation. Many suggest that this is the dawn
of a new information age or the onset of a world information economy. The scope of
change is widespread, deep, and rapid.”5 Author tries to be more specific and divides
the analysis of “global networks and their roles” into the categories money, data, and
ideas. Firstly there will be an illustration of a change (in a given category), after - each
input will be viewed through the prism of politics and policies, commerce and finance
(mostly concentrating on politics). The goal is to show how the technological changes in
Global Networks create possibilities for policy-makers and firms; how the flow of
information affects the regulation and conduct of policies and commerce; how the
proliferation of information via wired or wireless routes made it easy to access and
manipulate this information as well as how global networks “keep people informed and
allow them to make their support or outrage known and thus influence society and
political events.”6
5
James Rosenau, Information Technologies and Global Politics: The Changing Scope of Power and
Governance, P39
6
Rosenau, Information Technologies and Global Politics: The Changing Scope of Power and
Governance, P40
7
Money
Most of the today's money is electronic and it pulses through global networks. The
“real” bills and coins are used less and less and make up only a small portion of an
industrialized country’s money supply. On the other hand we can see the trend that
online banking and phone banking users are growing in numbers.7 These changes have
their own effects on politics and commerce.
Politics and Policy: Control of money flows. Huge sums of money move from country
to country and currency to currency each day. “By the end of the 1990s the value of
foreign exchange trades reached about $1.2 trillion each day. In 2013 this number
increased to the amount of 5.3 trillion per day”8. Jonathan Aronson is concerned
because he thinks “this maelstrom of activity raises twin challenges for monetary
authorities”9. He first questions the ability of central bankers to manage national money
supply. While governments no longer make any serious attempts to impose currency
controls, bankers still believe in their leverages. “However, even the imposition of
draconian penalties usually fails, falling victim to the fungibility of money. Central
bankers are beginning to grapple with these issues, but so far they have downplayed
their significance and asserted that they are still in control.”10 The second issue he
questioned is whether the growth of volume and velocity of money changing hands will
7
Deloitte Development. Mobile Banking: A Catalyst for Improving Bank Performance
Rosenau, Information Technologies and Global Politics: The Changing Scope of Power and
Governance, P41
8
9
10
ibid.
ibid.
8
make it more likely for any global financial crisis to spread faster via the
interconnection between currencies. “From the runs on sterling in the 1960s, which
began the slow death of the Bretton Wood system, to the Asian financial crisis in the late
1990s, central banks, finance ministries, and the International Monetary Fund (IMF)
labored to stabilize the global monetary scene.”11 However, in times of crisis political
leaders blame foreign speculators.12 Politicians, we may say, tend to pass the buck to
avoid accusations for their own irresponsibility. However in the case of speculations,
some cries are recurring and this has to signify something.
Commerce and Finance: The new payment methods open possibilities for businesses
(both corporations and individuals) to not only think globally, but also to act almost
without consideration of countries borders. New systems have made easy money
transfers possible. VISA and Master Card are globally known and accepted; cash can be
withdrawn at almost any given location with ATMs in national - and sometimes
international - currencies. Bill payment has become much faster and easier and can be
done directly from home. National borders do not mean much in today’s financial and
commercial world. The eradication of such barriers allows even small businesses to
become truly global. “Governments are playing catch up, but mostly are staying out of
the way and allowing firms to push economic globalization forward.”13 Hence allowing
corporations to gain power and achieve bigger role.
11
Rosenau, P42
12
Malaysian Prime Minister Dr. Mahathir in 1997 blamed Soros and his speculations for the financial
crisis.
13
Rosenau, P42
9
Data and Information
Soon most people in industrialized countries will be connected with everybody else in
real time. “The numbers are startling. In just ten years, since the first commercial
Internet providers began operation in 1989, more than 200 million users are connected,
including 100 million in the United States. By 1999 almost 40 percent of U.S.
households were connected; 20 percent in the European Union, and 10 percent in
Japan.”14 Today any government, corporation or individual (again, talking about
industrialized countries) has access to more information than is available in the world’s
biggest libraries. The creation of Wikipedia and the free online version of the
Encyclopaedia Britannica provide an increasing amount of information/data for people
who seek knowledge anywhere in the world. The Internet, email and VOIP are making
bills for international phone calls fall. However, the implication of such information
superfluity goes far beyond this.
Politics and Policy: Here we may ask ourselves if more information gained by
intelligence services will truly transform into better policy? “Governments always want
to collect and analyze information that will inform their decisions. Intelligence
communities want to collect as much information as possible.”15 The example of role
and capabilities of “new/modern” intelligence services can be demonstrated in the case
of the Soviet Union shooting down Korean Airlines Flight 007. Fascinatingly, the US
14
Rosenau, Information Technologies and Global Politics: The Changing Scope of Power and
Governance, P46
15
ibid
10
President (Reagan) released the conversation between the Soviet pilot and the command
centre within a few hours. Remember that this happened in 1983 and that nobody
thought this kind of technology (interception of secret/protected information) existed. A
few problems since then have risen. One of which is that it will be hard to protect the
information you have (this will be discussed more broadly in the next chapter), and the
second is that it will be hard to search in the ocean of databases and archives for specific
(needed) information. “The glut of information flows may clog the system and may not
lead to better policy.” Jonathon Aronson believes “there may be less room for intuition,
trust, and secret understandings that were traditional instruments of the process.” He
adds “...more information may be a blessing when bureaucrats and political leaders can
manage, analyze, and synthesize the data. It can be a curse when abundant information
overloads or dehumanizes the decision making process to the detriment of creativity and
flexibility”16. Overall, author agrees with Mr. Aronson and supports his views that
people surely should understand how information flows as well as study when we can
use it to make policies better or when the abundance of information causes chaos in the
political system.
Commerce and Finance: James Rosenau asks the question: “Will firms be more
competitive if they produce and market globally for global markets?”17 We surely can
say that companies today depend more than ever on information and communications.
This is especially the case for the large multinational corporations that affect countries’
16
Rosenau, Information Technologies and Global Politics: The Changing Scope of Power and
Governance, P47
17
ibid
11
economies. These corporations not only have to produce goods and services globally,
but also to track their operations and check inventories worldwide. “The demand for
global production and marketing means that managers focus on doing business without
regard to national borders specifically in the areas of trade and investment.”18 It is
unclear why there is trend for companies to sometimes use information more
successfully than politicians. Jonathon Aronson thinks that this possibly is because
“data communication networks, electronic data interchange, and improved management
of information unleash new competitive possibilities for firms”19, they try to adopt new
communications technologies more rapidly and successfully. With the demand for new
types of technologies rising, the corporations that create them for others will likely also
increase their own competitiveness. In such a way we may have a circle, where
corporations “help each other”20.
Ideas
We should differentiate ideas from information. “Information provides the answers, but
ideas provide the questions, dreams, and insights that reshape the world.”21 It is ideas
which are at the core of all innovations and modernizations. New technologies allow
ideas to travel and be implemented faster. James Rosenau tells us that it is hard to
18
Rosenau, Information Technologies and Global Politics: The Changing Scope of Power and
Governance, P47
19
ibid
20
While paying for new technologies to one (or another) company, corporations increase their own
profits by implementing those new technologies.
21
Rosenau, P47
12
measure the spread of new ideas because this differs from money or information.
However we can see the impact and measure it.22
Politics and Policies: Ideas stand at the beginning of all innovations’ processes and
politics are not an exception. As has already been said that new ICT speed up the spread
of the ideas, but can all ideas be considered improvements? Jonathon Aronson points
that since the global depression of the 1930s world economists have more understanding
and, in order to prevent crisis, should not make the same mistakes. However, he adds
that “[t]hose lessons have not helped Japan break out of its malaise.”23 Then Aronson
brings the example of where he thinks “enough convergence and learning took place”.
He thinks that the ideas of European Union of “policy harmonization and a common
currency” were not only innovative, but also had a big influence on politics, economics,
nations and cultures.24 The flow of free speech and open market ideas fled from the
“Western Countries” into the “Eastern, Socialistic Block” and have changed the face of
global politics, finance and business since 1989. The ideas of democratic societies and
e-governance are one of the fastest spreading political ideas today. With the advances of
ICT, states have less leverage to control the flow of such ideas, thus making
governments either accept them, or block the channels to interfere the flow.
Commerce and Finance: is the idea self regulation a good or bad idea? Governments
22
Rosenau, Information Technologies and Global Politics: The Changing Scope of Power and
Governance, P48
23
ibid.
24
ibid.
13
understand that they cannot control everything. However this does not mean that there
won’t be any regulations at all. There should be balance, Aronson suggested. He brings
several examples saying that “most governments now prefer markets, not regulation, to
dominate, but want to ensure that privacy is maintained. Governments claim they do not
want to manage content, but Congress then passed the Decency Act to try to manage
access to pornography and hate sites. While China stands ready to unplug broadcasters
providing content unacceptable to the government.”25 Most companies, of course, want
fewer restrictions and less governmental control over them. But at the same time they
want their profits to remain the same (or even become greater). Thus, companies try to
regulate themselves while “broadcasters in Asia practice self-censorship to create
culturally appropriate content on a country-by-country basis.”26
To conclude this chapter here is an example that ties all three categories - Money,
Information and Ideas - to one. As ideas flow even faster and some of them tend to be
important, states may want to implement some of them. For example, a government
likes the idea of Sustainable Development and wants to pass new “green” laws and
regulations. This information reaches the corporations and they want to leave the
country because they do not like to be restricted. The government meets with
corporations and says that they will first do research to get more data and information
about pollution, weather, and climate change patterns in the region. After the reports are
concluded, they will negotiate whether or not to limit companies by law, or whether the
25
Rosenau, Information Technologies and Global Politics: The Changing Scope of Power and
Governance, P48
26
ibid
14
government will pay them (or provide tax breaks) and corporations will self-regulate the
issue. With the help of global networks, cooperation between government and
corporations grows meaning they can realise dream projects together. The vast amount
of data and information will be much more precise. The experience gained will be
passed to the other countries with the idea of sustainable development via global
networks.
Chapter 2: The Internet and Politics
Throughout the existence of human society and the state, revolutionary changes in
communication and information technologies have been followed by significant change
in the course of the political process.
At the present stage of development, it is
internetization (the growth of the Internet) that is going into the masses. From the local
15
invention of military scientists and researchers to facilitate their research and operations,
i.e. a local network, the Internet has evolved into a worldwide network, the
communication in which influences all aspects of our lives more and more. This trend
also has its own effect on global politics.
The Internet can be seen as an open electronic information platform that significantly
alters the political space both within borders and in the global arena. It is the Internet
that provides virtually unlimited access to almost any type of information that is
presented for public viewing as well as discussion of any political actor. In this case, the
Internet is beginning to resemble a kind of national assembly of Athenian Democracy
and the Novgorod Veche, only, of course, at a higher level of technical support. The
Internet puts a clear sign of equality between all participants in the political process,
regardless of their financial status and political or economic influence. With this in mind,
we may say that the Internet acts as a clear and obvious protagonist of democracy and
the rule of law as well as class equality of people.
Considering online communication in terms of the political process, it is now necessary
to define a few key points related to the political potential of the Internet. The first is
that people tend to use the Internet more frequently as a source of political information.
One of the main features of this trend is “Viral Editing”. This works due to users’
activity and thus raises the really “hot” topics, allowing people not only to filter
information but also to analyze its various sources, to form and express their own
16
opinions. The second tendency which is becoming widely accepted is the use of the
Internet by politicians. There are even examples of politicians raising huge amount of
funds for their presidential campaigns via donations on the Internet. Third, and most
interesting, is that the Internet (as a technology) and the technological capabilities of
modern electronics allow socio-political dialogue among political actors, active network
users and public administration directly from the desktop. The growth of “e-democracy”
and “e-governance” in different parts of the world can be seen as an illustration of the
new trend and emerging role of the Internet with its growing influence on politics and
democratic processes. These political tendencies and activities, which are realized with
the help of the Internet, are known as “cyberpolitics”; and this chapter is dedicated to
exactly that.
The Internet as a Source of Political Information
For more than three centuries print media had a monopoly on the mass delivery of news.
Later it had to share this mission with radio and TV. Now the Internet takes away almost
all the exclusive rights for the production and distribution of information. “A basic tenet
of democratic theory is that voters’ choices must be based on informed thinking about
political issues, so it is only natural that as online media have gained attention at the
expense of offline outlets, political scholars have increasingly scrutinized the
performance of the Internet as a source of political information.”27 Although, most of
27
Leticia Bode, Stephanie Edgerly, Emily Vraga, Ben Sayre, and Dhavan Shah. Digital Democracy: The
17
mainstream media (newspapers, broadcasting corporations) have their own online pages
- and they remain amongst the most visited websites - people consider the Internet not
only a place for receiving the news, rather “[m]any now visit a variety of online
information sources, including political blogs.” To define blog, in “Digital Democracy”
Bode has quoted Farrel and Drezner, where they have described a blog as “a web page
with minimal to no external editing, providing on-line commentary, periodically
updated, and presented in reverse chronological order, with hyperlinks to other online
sources.”28 The growth of political blogs in the last decade has been truly astounding:
“Collectively, the weekly readership of the top dozen political blogs rivals that of Time,
Newsweek, or the New York Times.”29 The political blogs, of course, have gained
scholars’ attention. They emphasize two realms: the content and its credibility on blogs
as well as the motivations of bloggers. One of the main features of political blogs is that
they enable “Viral Editing”.
Viral Editing is, in fact, the first successful Artificial Intelligence. It is artificial because
it was created in a technical environment, although the conducting "neurons" of this
network are the people themselves - the users.
Accidentally finding interesting information, a casual user edits it, comments on it and
adds or removes something. Then this user distributes his edited information, trying to
Influence of New Media Production and Consumption in Politics. p509
28
ibid p511-512
29
Matthew.Hindman. The Myth of Digital Democracy.
18
“infect” other users’ interest. After the number of reposts reaches some threshold, a
thematic epidemic begins and the information goes viral. In this case, the only source of
motivation for the viral editor is a desire of the user to receive as many “likes, clicks and
shares” as possible. This creates a problem of credibility, or rather lack thereof.
However, even if there are thousands of political bloggers, only small group of “A-list
bloggers” are actually considered not only interesting, but also credible.30
A-list bloggers, have not only interesting views, but are also considered to be credible.
We can bring many cases of when bloggers getting more resonance than mainstream
media because of strict government control of said media. Most of these are cases in
Iran and Russia. Iran is known for its very strict approach to media, where almost
everything is controlled by officials. Many journalists have become bloggers because of
the censorship in mainstream media. It is certainly not true to say that only political
bloggers have gained attention in Iran. However, most of the “A-List” bloggers talk
about the news which was not covered by the mainstream media from politics and
religion to women’s rights and things that cannot be said in public.31 “The first
significant publication about Persian blogs, We are Iran: The Persian Blogs, presented
blogs as a safe haven for young, urban bloggers who espoused secular, pro-human rights
and democratic ideals, with aspirations for more freedom of thought and speech, and an
inclination for a modern, even Western way of life. This rich but distorted picture both
30
31
Matthew.Hindman. The Myth of Digital Democracy.
Laurent Giacobino, Arash Abadpour,Collin Anderson, Fred Petrossian, and Caroline Nellemann
Whither Blogestan : Evaluating Shifts in Persian Cyberspace.
19
reflected and corroborated Western narratives about the Persian blogosphere, in which
blogs were seen as the best hope for freedom and democracy in Iran.”32 “Between 2002
and 2010, the Persian blogosphere - or what is referred to as “blogestan” - exploded in
size and became the topic of numerous reports, essays, videos and books. Global
interest in this emerging trend, however, seemed to decrease during the second
presidential mandate of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad (2009- 2013), when online social
networking and microblogging became the most discussed and researched IT-related
topics, along with the Iranian regime’s policies aimed at deterring online expression.”33
The Iranian government’s actions against blogging were very successful. Due to the
blocking of some web pages and making it harder to post news on the Internet, the
population of blogs in Iran has declined dramatically. As has been mentioned in
“Whither Blogestan: Evaluating Shifts in Persian Cyberspace”, only 20% of the most
active blogs prior 2009 were still active in 2013.
The next example of powerful a blogging community is the case of when Russia’s
Channel 1 (a governmental broadcasting corporation) showed a satellite image (see
Figure 1) of Malaysian Airlines flight MH17 being shot by a fighter jet. The news
anchor claimed that the fighter jet was Ukrainian and that the image was provided by an
American whistle-blower. It was the blogging community that pointed out that “the
image is fake”. In his personal blog, Ilya Varlamov34 provided an investigation proving
that the image was badly and unprofessionally “photoshopped”. He highlighted that the
32
33
34
ibid.
ibid.
Ilya Varlamov. Первый по фотошопу/First in Photoshop.
20
whole image was fabricated and that not only were fighter jet and plane different
models but also that the geographic location and the time did not correspond with the
original scene of the tragedy.
This editing went viral and made even more resonance
than the official news. It would also be appropriate at this point to highlight that most of
the “A-list” bloggers in Russia are political bloggers and most of them find themselves
in opposition to the Kremlin.35
How do Politicians Use the Internet?
The next very important feature that the Internet has made possible is to host online
campaigns and reach the masses. “Door-to-door campaigning is a thing of the past,”
says Rand Straus from the Huffington Post.36 Clair Miller, the New York Times reporter,
even said that without the use of Internet technology President Barack Obama may not
have been elected.37 She was not alone, also political writer Steven Hill has noted that,
“[o]ne of the winning campaign strategies masterfully deployed by the Obama
campaign was its use of the Internet. More than any other previous campaign, the
Obama campaign showed tremendous mobilising and fundraising potential of a
comprehensive internet strategy.” Online videos and live-streams made political debates
even more popular. Companies like Google track traffic during the political debates.
35
One of the Russian Oposition Leaders - Alexei Navalny - is also a well known bloger in Russian
network.
36
Rand Strauss. How the Internet Has Changed the State of Political Debate.
37
Clair Miller. How Obama's Internet Campaign Changed Politics.
21
Figure 2, for example, shows what users were searching for via Google while watching
the debates between Senator Biden and Governor Palin in 2008. “Governor Palin called
Senator McCain a "maverick" several times, sending many viewers to Google in order
to query “definition of maverick”, “what is a maverick”, and “define:maverick”.”38
Fundraising was one of the most important parts of Obama’s online campaign. “He
raised more money than any US presidential candidate in history, a mind-numbing $750
million. Online donations totalled $500 million, twelve times as much as John Kerry
raised through online fundraising in 2004. But unlike previous big fundraising
candidates, most of his money came from small donors, the vast bulk of that in
increments of $100 or less. Obama’s fundraising capabilities gave him a massive lead
over John McCain in the money race to carry his campaign message to voters.”39
Steven Hill also provides pertinent examples of how Obama’s campaign used internet
technologies, especially the video capabilities. “The first inkling of the ability of the
web to grab attention for the Obama campaign was revealed rather innocuously in June
2007 when an independently-developed YouTube video of ‘I got a crush on Obama’ was
posted by a buxomly clad Obama Girl. It was a huge sensation that drew attention to his
campaign early on.” The campaign’s staff used almost full capability of YouTube as a
video platform. The official campaign channel (on YouTube) has been watched over 290
million times, an astonishing over 15 million hours. To buy the same amount of time on
38
39
Official Google Blog. The VP Debate: Candidates, Questions, and Queries.
Steven Hill. World Wide Webbed: The Obama Campaign's Masterful Use of the Internet.
22
broadcast TV would cost around $47 million.40 Paying nothing for the time was also
positive in other ways simply because people were searching for the videos or received
them from their friends. In this way they were not interrupted on “commercial breaks”
while watching their favourite shows.
The internet also allowed people to repeatedly listen and watch the candidates’ own
words in the face of attacks. Obama could react almost instantly and have more impact
on the public debate. During Obama’s campaign in 2008 there was a huge controversy
over Obama’s friendship with the Reverend Jeremiah White. “While Obama’s
opponents found ways to make sure that Reverend Wright’s incendiary words kept
surfacing, people could watch and re-watch Mr. Obama’s speech on race. They could
forward links to their own friends and associates. Eventually nearly 7 million people
watched Obama’s 37-minute speech on YouTube, and the mainstream media reported on
it in part because it became such an internet sensation.”41
Obama’s success online almost certainly brought more politicians and officials onto the
web. For example the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom, David Cameron, has not
one, but two verified Twitter accounts. One is for his office and is run by the 10
Downing Street staff and the second is his personal account. The other example could
be noticed - or couldn’t go unnoticed - when only a few days ago Hillary Clinton
announced via her Twitter account that she is launching her campaign for the presidency:
40
41
from the Official Obama for America YouTube Channel.
Steven Hill. World Wide Webbed: The Obama Campaign's Masterful Use of the Internet.
23
“I'm running for president. Everyday Americans need a champion, and I want to be
that champion.”42 Interestingly, it was the first place where she announced her plans
and only after appearing on Twitter did the message find its way to mainstream
media.
E-democracy and E-governance
The analysis of the role of the Internet as a guarantor of democracy is one of the most
promising directions in political science. Information and Communication Technologies,
being introduced more deeply into society, are changing the implementation of
fundamental democratic procedures - such as freedom of political expression and
freedom of speech.
With the help of the Internet people in some countries now may exert their political
rights in a way that has rarely been done before. They may vote, discuss new laws, talk
to officials, pay taxes and apply for visas or citizenship without leaving home. Simply
having PC or even mobile phone enables them to access the governmental web portals
via internet.
Maybe Internet voting not something new, as it has been already tried by some countries
such as Switzerland, the UK and the US. Maybe it is not fundamentally changing the
voting process itself, as the main aspects - flexibility in time and place - have already
42
The link to the message https://twitter.com/HillaryClinton/status/587336319321407488
24
been achieved with the creation of postal voting. Internet voting serves the exact same
purposes and allows one to “cast a ballot remotely and during more than a few hours on
voting day”43 but it makes it even simpler, faster, cheaper.
The nation that has used these possibilities to the utmost is Estonia, a former Soviet
Union state, which is now part of the European Union. Since 2000, Estonia has
conducted eight national elections in which all voters could use Internet voting.44
Internet voting has been used45:

in the local elections of October 2005, October 2009 and October 2013 and

in the parliamentary elections of March 2007, March 2011 and March 2015 and

in the European Parliament elections of June 2009 and May 2014.
This positive trend can be seen in Figure 3. In 2007 around 30,000 people used Internet
voting, which corresponds to about 5% of voters. In the European Parliament elections
of 2009, a rise in the numbers of Internet voters can be seen where more than 58,000
people voted via the Internet, corresponding to about 15% of voters. In the Local
Elections of 2009 and in the Parliamentary elections of 2011, the percentage of Internet
voters continued to rise and, in the European Parliament Elections of 2014, the
amount reached 31.3% of all voters. In 2015 a slight drop of the percentage to 30.5%
can be seen, however the number of people using the Internet to vote has reached a new
high with the Estonian National Electoral Committee registering approximately 176,000
43
44
45
Michael Alvarez. Internet Voting in Comparative Perspective.
ibid
Statistics about Internet Voting in Estonia. Electoral Management - Estonian National Electoral
Committee
25
internet votes.
Internet voting shows positive signs and is working in Estonia. Some might question
how and why it works in Estonia but not really in other states? The answer is hidden not
far away. “There are four key features to the Estonian experience that makes Internet
voting a workable alternative: (1) widespread Internet penetration, (2) a legal structure
that addresses Internet voting issues, (3) an identification system that allows for digital
authentication of the voter, and (4) a political culture that is supportive of Internet
voting.”46
Overall, Internet capabilities can affect the political process by simplifying the
horizontal and vertical political connections: between the governmental institutions, and
between government and citizens. Thus, the Internet as a technology facilitates the task
of consolidating citizens and their interactions with the state, eliminating geographic
and socio-demographic barriers. The Internet reduces the organizational costs of
political associations and unities, increases the ability to collect contributions and
donations, makes it possible to independently spread political influence and opinions (of
politicians and citizens) through the new ICT resources.
One more example of e-government capabilities can be seen in how the government of
Uzbekistan tries to implement it. The draft law for the “e-government” itself was
46
Michael Alvarez. Internet Voting in Comparative Perspective.
26
published online and put up for public discussion. Anyone who had questions,
comments or ideas could respond and participate in drafting the law.47 Today the
parliament wants to pass the law to enable any other law to be discussed publicly on the
official e-government platform.48
In the end, it must be said that the discussion about the impact of ICT capabilities on the
domestic political process will still remain open. Much depends on the Internet literacy
of citizens. Also transformation of the political process hinges on the willingness of the
state and the public to take and use the opportunities provided by the new
communication technologies: new forms and methods of political participation, the
possibility of direct relationship between society and political actors.
Appendices.
Figure 1
47
48
Draft Law "On E-government" Put on Public Discussion. UzReport.
Mygov.uz or egovernment.uz
27
Source: zyalt.LiveJournal.com
Figure 2
Source: Official Google Blog
Figure 3
Local
Parlia- Europea Local
Parlia- Local
Europea ParliaElection mentary n
Election mentary Election n
mentary
28
s 2005
Eligible
voters
Election Parliam s 2009
s 2007
ent
Election
s 2009
1
059
897 243
292
Election s 2013
s 2011
Parliam Election
ent
s 2015
Election
s 2014
909 628
1
094
913 346
317
1
086
902 873
935
899 793
Particip
ating
voters(v
502 504
oters
turned
out)
555
463
399 181
662 813
580 264
630 050
329 766
577 910
Voter
turnout
47,4%
61,9%
43,9%
60,6%
63,5%
58,0%
36,5%
64,2%
I-voters
9 317
30 275
58 669
104 413
140 846
133 808
103 151
176 491
I-votes
9 287
counted
30 243
58 614
104 313
140 764
133 662
103 105
176 329
I-votes
cancelle 30
d
32
55
100
82
146
46
162
I-votes
invalid
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.**
1
n.a.
1
Multiple
I-votes(r
eplaced 364
with
I-vote)
789
910
2 373
4 384
3 045
2 019
4 593
I-voters
among
eligible
voters
0,9%
3,4%
6,5%
9,5%
15,4%
12,3%
11,4%
19,6%
I-voters
among
particip 1,9%
ating
voters
5,5%
14,7%
15,8%
24,3%
21,2%
31,3%
30,5%
I-votes
among
17,6%
45,4%
44%
56,4%
50,5%
59,2%
59,6%
7,2%
29
advance
votes
I-votes
cast
abroad
among
I-votes n.a.
(based
on
IP-addr
ess)*
3,9%
105
51 states 66 states 82 states states
4,2%
I-voting
3 days
periood
3 days
7 days
7 days
7 days
7 days
7 days
7 days
I-voters
using
n.a.
mobile-I
D
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
2 690
11 753
11 609
22 084
I-voters
using
mobile-I
n.a.
D
among
I-voters
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
1,9%
8,6%
11,0%
12,2%
2%
3%
2,8%
105
states
5,71%
4,69%
116
98 states
states
* in Local Elections, voters permanently residing abroad are not eligible for voting
** one invalid vote is depicted among cancelled votes
Source: Estonian National Electoral Committee.
vvk.ee
Chapter 3: Challenges and Security Threats Brought into
Politics by ICT.
Unfortunately, new communication information technologies bring serious threats to the
national security. The global networks provide opportunities to organize revolutions and
overthrow regimes. If hackers were acting alone before, now international crime has
30
entered cyberspace and brought real crime activities to the internet with the help of
software engineers. The emergence of the Internet has also made secret information and
data vulnerable, thus espionage has also come online. Some information does not need
to be hacked and is there to be downloaded and passed on. This may be harmful
information with extremist content that threatens the security and authorities of the
state.
Analysing the role of Social Networks and Blogs as a political instrument for
coup-d’etat; taking a look at how extremist organizations and the international criminals
invade the cyberspace; as well as discussing the concept and possibility of cyberwar all of these is a part of the chapter.
Social Networks and Blogs as a Threat to the Regime
Firstly, let us define what today’s Internet Social Networks are. Dana Boyd suggests this
definition: “[s]ocial network sites are web-based services that allow individuals to (1)
construct a public or semi-public profile within a bounded system, (2) articulate a list of
other users with whom they share a connection, and (3) view and traverse their list of
connections and those made by others within the system.”49 With the development of
49
Boyd, Danah, and Nicole Ellison. Social Network Sites: Definition, History, and Scholarship.
31
Web 2.0,50 social networks have gained a tangible foundation in a form of portals and
Web services. For example, one may find an unfamiliar person on a social network and
see the chain of acquaintances through which there is a connection. The growth of
social networks on the Internet started in 1995 with the creation of classmates.com51.
The project gained popularity and became the role model for future projects. However,
the real boom of social networks began around 2003 to 2004 when MySpace, LinkedIn
and Facebook went online. While LinkedIn was built especially for business contacts
and purposes, the creators of MySpace and Facebook made a bid on individual needs
and users’ self-expression. What was more important is that new social networks
allowed people not only to create, but also to share their creations and thoughts with the
users of the social network. Thus social networks can be seen as a platform for
interaction between people in groups that share same ideas.
Let us now return to the threats for political regimes and how the use of social networks
and blogs “helps” revolutions. Social networks provide unique opportunities for opinion
leaders to carry out their activity and interaction with the target group. The technologies
of Web 2.0 have opened possibilities for everyone to create a common social and
information space. Realizing these possibilities via social networks or blogs
significantly enhances and speeds up information and communication processes. The
main objective of using social networks and blogs during revolutions is maximum
50
Web 2.0 - The second stage of development of the Internet, characterized especially by the change
from static web pages to dynamic or user-generated content and the growth of social media.
(OxfordDctionaries.com)
51
The social network, where you can find your old classmates
32
coverage and efficiency of information transmission. This is why the possibilities of
social networks and other technologies have a significant impact on organization and
tactics used by the supporters of regime change.
For example, social networks had a huge role in the organization of protests and
revolutions during the “Arab Spring” of 2011. One day before the protests in Egypt, the
Facebook group “Revolution Day”, created by Wael Ghonim, had gained more than
85,000 people who verified their attendance.52 Opera Software, which develops web
browsers for mobile devices, has conducted research on the subject of active Internet
users in Egypt and other countries affected by the "Arab Spring". According to the
results, during the riots in Tahrir Square in Cairo, web traffic soared on Egyptian
opposition websites and some of them kept a high level of demand even after the
departure of Hosni Mubarak. According to the company, from February 2010 to
February 2011 the number of visits to the most popular online resources in the Middle
East (including the top sites Facebook, Google and YouTube) increased by 233%, the
number of unique users increased by 142%. But the most important thing is that the rate
of information exchange has experienced its largest growth: the amount of data
transferred increased by 259%.53
Here is a snapshot of the statistics in Egypt since February 2010, according to Opera
Software:54
52
53
54
Abigail Cairo. Is Egypt About to Have a Facebook Revolution?
Jon Von Tetzchner. State of the Mobile Web.
Jon Von Tetzchner. State of the Mobile Web.
33
Top 10 sites in Egypt






Page view growth : 187.7 %
Unique user growth : 139.9 %
Data transfer growth : 230.1 %
Page views per user: 373
Data transferred per user (MB): 7
Data transferred per page view (KB): 19










google.com
facebook.com
youtube.com
yahoo.com
bbc.co.uk
mobile2day.com
youm7.com
100fm6.com
my.opera.com
aljazeera.net
Opera Software has also conducted an interview with engineer, Ayman Shokr, from
Cairo, who participated in the protests. “The key success for the revolution was the way
we connected via Facebook and other social media via the Internet to mobile phones,”
said Shokr.55 When the government realized the way the wind was blowing from and
blocked access to the Internet, the time had already been lost. Life in the country had
stopped and all activity had flowed to Tahrir Square. The rest is already part of the
history.
Criminal Organizations and Terrorist Activities in Cyberspace
With the fast-paced growth of technologies, not only ordinary people’s and politicians’
55
ibid.
34
opportunities rise, but also the possibilities open for wrongdoers and their activities.
Internet and global networks have allowed extremist and terrorist groups to obtain
information about their targets and weaknesses more easily and more quickly. They may
find the transport timetables, maps and plans of the buildings, working hours, etc
online.56 Hamas even used Google Earth to plan its attacks on Israel.57 The information
they acquire in the Internet has an impact on other people’s lives. The Internet is also
being used by terrorists to recruit new people by spreading their own ideas, views and
ideology. Islamist extremist groups and organizations such as Hizb ut-Tahir and the
Hezbollah are trying to attract youngsters by placing music and computer games on
their web pages.58 The Internet is used to spread tactics with instructions and manuals.
Cohen-Almagor lists and describes the catalogue of extremist literature available online,
such as “Encyclopedia of Jihad” or “The Mujahideen Explosives Handbook”, which
teaches how to create improvised explosive devices at home and carry out violent terror
attacks. He also highlights the presence of “hacking material, the tutorials in viruses,
tools of anonymity and encryption methods.”59
One of the latest examples can be seen in how ISIL uses social networks. They have
mastered Twitter by creating an application that sends tweets/messages with hashtags
and pictures using their supporters’ profiles. This bumps their massages to the top of
most popular trends in Twitter. Berger has published an excellent graph online on the
56
57
58
59
Raphael Cohen-Almagor. In Internet’s Way.
Clancy Chassay and Bobbie Johnson. Google Earth Used to Target Israel.
Raphael Cohen-Almagor. In Internet’s Way. p44
Ibidp 47
35
Atlantic that shows how this application works throughout two-hour observation period
(see Figure 1). ISIL is also known for posting videos of torture, executions and
beheadings online. Such videos spread fear and hatred based on religion, race and
nationality across the web. Hence, they should be immediately blocked on the social
media as content that appeals to force and violence.
Nowadays even traditional organized crime uses the advances of technologies. They
employ software engineers to attack industrial systems. BBC has reported on a case
which took place in Antwerp, Belgium. The Dutch based drug trafficking group hacked
servers in the sea port of Antwerp. This enabled them to gain access to the data which
provides the location and security details of containers. By using this information they
(criminals) could easily hide heroine in cargoes, move them bypassing security and then
pick it at the destination point.60
The problem is becoming even bigger because the critical infrastructural today is mostly
controlled by new technologies. In an interview with Bloomberg, Eugene Kaspersky
said that criminal organizations can hack not only ports, but also petrol stations and coal
mines to steal natural resources.61 Critical infrastructure is the backbone of the United
States’ essential services. It is responsible for security, healthcare, and economy. For this
reason, Presidential Policy Directive 21 has been released, which establishes a national
policy to identify, prioritize, and protect critical infrastructure. According to PPD-21,
60
61
Tom. Police Warning after Drug Traffickers' Cyber-attack. BBC, Plocie Warning.
Eugene Kaspersky interviewed by Cory Johnson. Why Hackers Target Gas Stations, Coal Mines.
36
there are 16 critical infrastructure sectors62:
1.
Chemical
9.
Financial Services
2.
Commercial Facilities
10. Food and Agriculture
3.
Communications
11. Government Facilities
4.
Critical Manufacturing
12. Healthcare and Public Health
5.
Dams
13. Information Technology
6.
Defence Industrial Base
14. Nuclear Reactors, Materials, and Waste
7.
Emergency Services
15. Transportation Systems
8.
Energy
16. Water and Wastewater Systems
“Existing security technologies are typically not appropriate for the present control
systems in organization infrastructures because the systems were not designed with
security in mind.”63 Thus, the current infrastructure system is very vulnerable to
cyberattacks. However, criminal organizations are more interested in bypassing security
and abusing the infrastructure, not destroying it. While most of terrorist organizations
do not yet have sufficient skills to attack and deal out physical damage via cyberspace,
there are attacks on such systems and they are state-sponsored. Some countries utilize
and exercise these possibilities on a very high level.
62
The White House, Office of the Press Secretary. Presidential Policy Directive -- Critical Infrastructure
Security and Resilience.
63
Mark Mcgibbon. Cyber Readiness : Are We There Yet?
37
Cyberwars - The Wars of the Future?
When the Iranian Nuclear Deal was not yet a case, in 2010 the Iranian nuclear plant
Natanz was attacked via the Internet. It was not a simple attack to steal information,
rather the attack caused physical damage. This was a cyberattack, and the cyberweapon
was given a name: Stuxnet.64 Many wondered if it is the start of a new way of waging
war? A cyberwar?
Firstly, let’s define what can be seen as a cyberwar. A cyberwar is the confrontation on
the Internet, aimed primarily at disabling computer systems of government agencies of
the enemy country as well as systems of its critical infrastructure sectors. International
relations and political confrontations are often continued in the Internet in the form of a
cyberwar. The British journal The Economist identifies cyberspace as the fifth domain
of warfare, “after land, sea, air and space”.65 It should be highlighted that not only
attacking infrastructures should be considered as a cyberwar, but also:

Vandalism - the use of the Internet to spoil government, state and official web pages;
changing the content of these resources

Propaganda - the use of social networks and emails to send propagandistic
messages

Espionage - hacking systems to obtain secret or confidential information such as
military secrets like designs for the fighter jets or data for future military
64
65
David Sanger. Obama Order Sped Up Wave of Cyberattacks Against Iran.
Cyberwar. by The Economist
38
operations.
Cyberwar allows countries to have “war” without bloodshed, thus minimizing civilian
casualties. More important to the states is also the ability to carry out battles more
swiftly and with lower costs as it is easier “to move electrons across the globe than to
move large ships long distances.”66
Today most of the major powers, or the permanent members of the United Nations
Security Council67, have their own cybersecurity programs and cyber military
formations. One example is the United States Cyber Command officially established in
2009.68 The main reason for its creation was to be able to defend the country in cyber
space as well as to be able to respond to cyber attacks immediately.
The possibilities of having war in cyberspace may also bring new actors to the political
scene. They can be small states or even non-state actors that have access to the World
Wide Web. It takes much more effort and capital to create a proper army with top
weaponry, fleets, aircrafts, while it is relatively easy for an organization to teach
personnel coding and programming to establish its own cyber formations.69
Joseph Nye, a former US assistant secretary of defence and chairman of the US
National Intelligence Council, remembers that “the researches from US Department of
66
67
68
69
Joseph Nye. Cyber War and Peace.
United States, United Kingdom, France, Russia, and China.
The Official web page of USCYBERCOM - http://www.arcyber.army.mil/
Countries may even hire/employ hackers, like they do with the international mercenaries.
39
Defense created the Internet”. He adds that “today, by most accounts, the US remains
the leading country in terms of its military and societal use.”70 He also believes that
there is a dependency on new technologies and this makes the US more vulnerable
compared to other countries. In addition, “cyberspace has become a major source of
insecurity because, at this stage of technological development, offense prevails over
defense there.”71 However, this is not necessarily true. The Principal Cyber Advisor to
the Secretary Of Defense, Eric Rosenbach, speaking in the Senate has said that the US
military is well prepared to protect national security against cyber attacks but they are
not currently able to conduct a full-scale offensive campaign. The reason mentioned by
Rosenbach was insufficient investments.72
At the end of the article, Joseph Nye compares the possibilities of cyber war and
cyberattacks. Stating “A ‘cyber 9/11’ may be more likely than the often-mentioned
‘cyber Pearl Harbor’.”73
He means that there is more chance of a terrorist cyber attack
than a state operation. He may be partially right, but there have already been cases of
state cyber attacks. The reason why his opinion could be correct is that the major states
have had their own infrastructure connected by new information technologies. That
makes them vulnerable as well. This might actually look more like the case with the
intercontinental ballistic missiles of the Cold War period - mutual assured destruction as has been stated by the Senator Nelson.74 The only way we might see a “cyber 9/11”,
70
71
72
73
74
Joseph Nye. Cyber War and Peace.
Ibid
United States Commitee on Armed Services. Hearings : Military Cyber Programs and Posture.
Joseph Nye. Cyber War and Peace.
United States Commitee on Armed Services. Hearings : Military Cyber Programs and Posture.
40
is if the hacker groups or software engineers affiliate with the terrorist organizations or
become cyber terrorists themselves.
Excursus
In today’s world the Internet has become a tool for governments to track potential
threats. Governments use the Internet to trace different people and organizations that are
considered to be dangerous for the regime. It may be criminals, extremists or terrorist
groups. In particular states the opposition can be tracked as a threat to country’s
“stability”. In most cases the Internet is the only way for the opposition to reach the
masses, because government controls all of the mainstream mass media inside the
country. Such countries as Saudi Arabia, Belarus, Russia, China or Iran can be seen as
examples. However author believes that one specific case of China and Yahoo actions
are one of the first and colourful illustrations of repressive actions against the opposition
and free speech. Shi Tao, is a journalist, who has been arrested after divulging state
secrets. Using his Yahoo e-mail-account, he posted a government decree on the Internet.
The document prohibited the Chinese media to have any kind of reports of the
anniversary of the Tienanmen Square massacre. Yahoo has provided personal
information, thus helped to identify and track the journalist.75 This was one of the first
cases, that got global attention on the possibilities that are open for the repressive
governments.
75
Joseph Kahn, Yahoo helped Chinese to prosecute journalist.
41
After the case in China almost everyone in the world began to understand that internet is
not really free and there is a possibility to be traced. However, a former National
Security Agency contractor Edward Snowden with his revelations in 2013 surprised not
only US public, but also many other states and their governments. He disclosed the
information about special secret programs of surveillance and their scale. Based on
secret documents sent to the media by Snowden, journalists reported that the
intelligence activities of US secret services were directed not only against foreign states,
but against US citizens, as well as against the NATO and the European Union - which
are considered to be one of the main allies. “Those reports were followed by revelations
in both the Washington Post and Guardian that the NSA tapped directly into the servers
of nine internet firms including Facebook, Google, Microsoft and Yahoo to track online
communication in a surveillance programme known as Prism.”76 Snowden also told
that the programs cover “phone calls, emails, texts, search history, what you buy, who
your friends are, where you go, who you love.”77 The fact that the intelligence activities
was also targeted at allies hurt foreign affairs of the country, and relations with the allies.
The situation got even worse, when Spiegel has reported that “United States intelligence
agencies have not only targeted Chancellor Angela Merkel's cellphone, but they have
also used the American Embassy in Berlin as a listening station.”78 Shortly after
Chancellor Merkel then on the EU summit has told that she called to President Obama
and said that “spying on allies is not acceptable” and represented a “grave breach of
76
77
78
British Broadcasting Corporation (BBC), Edward Snowden: Leaks that exposed US spy programme
Associated Press.Everyone Is Under Surveillance Now, Says Whistleblower Edward Snowden.
Spiegel, The NSA Secret Spy Hub in Berlin
42
trust”79. Surprisingly, Spiegel has revealed that the German Intelligence Bundesnachrichtendienst (BND) has been cooperating with their US colleagues from
the NSA, and “it seems that German intelligence was aware of the espionage -- and did
nothing to stop it.”80
79
Ian Traynor, Angela Merkel: NSA spying on allies is not on
Maik Baumgärtner, Nikolaus Blome, Hubert Gude, Marcel Rosenbach, Jörg Schindler and Fidelius
Schmid, German Intelligence Agency BND Under Fire for NSA Cooperation
80
43
Appendices
Figure1
Tweets Sent by ISIS's Social-Media App Over a 2-Hour Period
Source: TheAtlantic.com
44
Chapter 4. New Technologies and Battlefields.
As has been described in the previous chapter new information and communication
technologies provide the opportunities for cyber attacks. However, these attacks have
some cons. One is that after the attack, the virus or malware would be known to other
parties and they would update their systems so that this virus could not be used again.
Typical weaponry, on other hand - such as rifles, pistols, shotguns and rocket launchers
- works most of the time. With the new technologies upgrades making them more
accurate, they have become more fatal as well. New technologies have infiltrated the
battlefields and changed the conduct of war forever. Terrorists create new varieties of
improvised explosive devices. Modern warfare hugely relays on high-techs weapons
and unmanned systems - drones and robots.
Improvised Explosive Devices
An Improvised Explosive Device, or IED, is simply a home-made bomb. It is one of the
most used weapons of terrorist groups, vandals, criminals and suicide bombers. The
main reasons for its popularity are how easy and cheap it is to make and also that it “can
come in many forms, ranging from a small pipe bomb to a sophisticated device capable
of causing massive damage and loss of life. IEDs can be carried or delivered in a
45
vehicle; carried, placed, or thrown by a person; delivered in a package; or concealed on
the roadside.”81 IEDs have mainly been used in the hotspots (such as Pakistan, Iraq and
Afghanistan) against anti-terrorist coalition forces. They are considered very successful
as more than 66% of deaths within coalition forces in Afghanistan since 2001 have been
attributed to IEDs.82 However, IEDs are not only being used in combat zones, terrorist
IED attacks have also been performed in the peaceful cities. The Department of
Homeland Security mentions cases such as the Oklahoma City bombing in 1995, the
Madrid train attacks in 2004 and the London bombings in 2005.83 The recent Boston
Marathon bombings in 2013 can also be seen as an example of the IED use.
These improvised explosive devices are considered to be easy to make because the
instructions can be found on the Internet and the materials and components for the
bombs are legally available on the market. Explosives may be both liquid and solid
contain acetone from nail polish remover, hair bleach with a 15-25% volume content of
hydrogen peroxide and a common acid. It is possible to rupture the body of an airplane
with less than 1 kg.84 “IEDs consist of a variety of components that include an initiator,
switch, main charge, power source, and a container.”85 Sometimes terrorists add extra
materials like nails, glass and/or some metal fragments to increase the damage and hurt
more people.
81
Randy Atkinson. IED Attack: Improvised Explosive Devices.
Tom Brook . IED Attacks in Afghanistan Set Record.
83
Randy Atkinson.
84
Oppenheimer, A. R., and Richard English. IRA, the Bombs and the Bullets: A History of Deadly
Ingenuity.
85
Randy Atkinson.
82
46
With the help of new technologies, IEDs can be detonated from far away with the use of
a cell phone or any other source of signal (Figure 1 shows an example of a typical IED).
There are also new technologies today to help the military and the police to fight against
IEDs. The unmanned systems or robots help to defuse the homemade bombs and save
the lives on thousands of people (Figure 2 illustrates a regular anti-IED robot).
Drones, Robots, and Unmanned Systems
New technologies have allowed armies to take soldiers away from very dangerous
places. Now that robots have been created, soldiers can now operate them from far away
and observe everything through cameras and navigate with the help of GPS. Of course,
in most countries the use of unmanned systems and robots is very rare. However, the US
and Israel armies posses highly developed and far advanced drone technologies.
Royakkers and Olsthoorn agree that “the majority of these unmanned systems used in
operations today are unarmed and mainly for reconnaissance and mine clearing”86.
However, there is a trend for robots to become armed and the best example can be seen
again in drones. In addition, there is a question that is being asked by Royakkers and
Olsthoorn: who should be held liable if robots commit a war crime?
We should differentiate autonomous and non-autonomous robots. Autonomous robots
have a special program installed already, and they carry it out (perform it). The Human
86
Lambèr Royakkers and Peter Olsthoorn. Military Robots and the Question of Responsibility.
47
Rights Council has reported that such robots already exist and are being used by South
Korea to guard the border to North Korea. These robots can detect and shoot targets
from kilometres away,87 while non-autonomous robots require a human to approve a
decision to open fire, basically making it a human’s decision.
When the war is taking place, parties should respect the principles of jus in bello. One
of the main principles states that the innocent should not be killed, that civilians should
not suffer war. The problem arises when robot/drone attacks cause civilian deaths
because we cannot really punish a robot, only if turn it off. Who is responsible then?
Royakkers and Olsthoorn suggest that it should be someone from the long chain of
individuals that created this robot, someone from among the “manufacturer,
programmer, the designer, the Department of Defense, the generals or admirals in
charge of operation, and the operator.”88 We can say that if an autonomous robot
operates outside of given boundaries, then it is the manufacturer who is responsible;
while if a non-autonomous robot is being used in a way that makes it illegal, then it is
the General or the operator’s fault. Sometimes it really is that the casualties are caused
by a programming error or malfunction. For example, “in October 2007 in South Africa
a malfunctioning robotic gun fired five hundred high explosive rounds, killing nine
soldiers and seriously injuring fourteen”.89
It shows that not only locals can be harmed
by robots, but also friendly or an army’s own soldiers.
87
88
89
Heyns, Christof. Report of the Special Rapporteur on Extrajudicial, Summary or Arbitrary Executions.
Lambèr Royakkers and Peter Olsthoorn. Military Robots and the Question of Responsibility.
ibid
48
Most of the criticism of using drones is against operators who control the drones. While
controlling an unarmed drone, they may witness crimes but be unable to stop them. On
other hand, they may be controlling the armed drones and, by their own actions, cause
civilian deaths.
Civilian casualties are one of the main reasons the armed drones are criticized. U.S.
President Obama gave a big speech about this issue, which was reported by many
tabloids and mass media organizations to be a “speech on limiting the drones”.
He
began by saying that the tactics are in fact effective. Then he also added that "the
terrorists we are after target civilians, and the death toll from their acts of terrorism
against Muslims dwarfs any estimate of civilian casualties from drone strikes."90
In contrast to the media description, it is obvious that President Obama was defending
the use of drones, rather than talking about limiting their use. However, the President
offers a valuable analogy and a logical reason to continue using drones: “Conventional
airpower or missiles are far less precise than drones and likely to cause more civilian
casualties and local outrage. And invasions of these territories lead us to be viewed as
occupying armies; unleash a torrent of unintended consequences; are difficult to contain;
and ultimately empower those who thrive on violent conflict. So it is false to assert that
putting boots on the ground is less likely to result in civilian deaths, or to create enemies
in the Muslim world.”91
90
91
LoGiurato, Brett. The Full Text Of Obama's Big Speech On Drones, Guantanamo, And Terrorism.
LoGiurato, Brett. The Full Text Of Obama's Big Speech On Drones, Guantanamo, And Terrorism.
49
Unfortunately, the issue of the civilian casualties still remains open. According to The
Bureau of Investigative Journalism, since 2004 up to 960 civilians have been killed, and
a minimum of 172 of them were kids.92
New Ammunition
Technologies have always been part of warfare. To defend their own soldiers and to
eliminate the enemy, scientists and researchers have always worked to come up with
something new. From stones to swords, from arrows to assault rifles, from the simplest
sight devices to the new night vision devices, these have all been possible because of the
technological process. Nowadays, technologies still help in developing new weaponry
and military ammunition.
In May of 2013, the official US Army has released information on their web page that
they are exploring the possibilities of futuristic uniforms.93 It did not take long, and
already in February 2014, President Barack Obama gave another speech in the White
House where he talked about new innovation. “Today I am joined by researchers who
invent some of the most advanced metals on the planet, designers who are modelling
prototypes in the digital cloud, folks from the Pentagon who help to support their work.
92
93
The Bureau of Investigative Journalism. Get the Data: Drone Wars.
Roger Teel. Army Explores Futuristic Uniform for SOCOM.
50
Basically, I’m here to announce that we’re building Iron Man.”94 This may not have a
direct connection to the movie, however. This is a special kind of a suit for soldiers
named the Tactical Assault Light Operator Suit, or TALOS for short.95 The main task of
the suit is to provide more mobility and protection for the soldier on his/her mission.
The creators of the suit want to implement some of the newest technologies,
concentrating on different factors such as the following:96
a) Advanced Armor: Materials to support next-generation, full-body ballistic
protection. Full-body ballistic protection will be at the NIJ-IV level and include the
head. Blast pressure wave mitigation technologies will be considered.
b) Mobility/Agility: Enhancement platforms such as powered exoskeletons that
improve/augment a warfighter’s endurance and agility.
c) Situational Awareness (SA): Body near and remote sensor integration, fusion, and
display to enhance a war fighter's understanding of the tactical environment.
d) Light/noise discipline.
e) Command, Control, Communications & Computers (C4): Such as conformable &
wearable antennae, wearable computers, and advanced wave forms/software
programmable radios allowing for a reduction in soldier load.
f)
Individual soldier combat-ready displays: Including non-visual means of
information display and potentially utilization of cognitive thoughts and the
surrounding environment to display personalized information.
94
The White House, Office of the Press Secretary. Remarks by the President on Manufacturing
Innovation Institutes.
95
Federal Business Opportunities. Tactical Assault Light Operator Suit (TALOS).
96
Ibid
51
g) Power generation and management.
h) Thermal management of the suit occupant.
i)
Medical: Embedded monitoring, oxygen systems, wound stasis, electromechanical
compensation.
This all may sound and look exceptional, but there are issues with the suit. Firstly, at
this stage it is heavy. To place and to accommodate all those new technologies into one
suit making it lighter than current suits is not an easy task. The second issue is power
supply. “While the comic book hero relies on a miniature reactor that is embedded in his
chest, the US Special Operation Command has struggled in real life to find a power
source for the suit, which could weigh several hundred pounds.”97 Still, there are more
than 30 scientific advisors working on the project. Currently TALOS is being tested and
is not planned to be released before August 2018.
97
Dan Lamothe.
New Competition Launched in Development of U.S. Military’s ‘Iron Man’ Suit.
52
Appendices.
Figure 1
Source: tribune.com.pk
Figure 2
Source: navy.mil
53
Conclusion
This bachelor thesis was written to demonstrate the changes in the political world
brought by the new technologies. The main question was whether the new technologies
changed the conduct of global politics. The answer is yes, the change is tremendous.
The first chapter showed the significance of global networks. Today they act as veins for
the money, ideas, information and data to roam across the world. It is not a secret that
nowadays economics and politics are connected to each other, even in the countries that
promote “free trade”. This is why to evaluate the importance of global networks two
prisms were used: politics and commerce. By virtually eliminating national borders,
global networks provide opportunities for businesses to become global and also provide
possibilities for some personalities have impact on countries’ economics. The fast
spreading information and ideas also bring both benefits and difficulties for
governments.
In the second chapter the desire was to show new trends, features and possibilities that
the Internet, one of the main global networks today, has brought onto the global political
scene. The use of the web by politicians and citizens is becoming more vital. The
examples of Obama’s successful internet campaign proves that the Internet has great
potential as a versatile platform on which politicians may gather funds by donations and
interact directly with people. Through this interaction the Internet may bring the old
54
concept of Direct Democracy back into use. To support this argument, examples of the
e-governance and e-democracy were brought. These provide citizens with more
possibilities for communicating with the government and affecting political processes.
Thus, penetrating into the sphere of politics, new information and communication
technologies not only changed the old representations (ideas), attitudes, and stereotypes,
but also broke many forms of behaviour models of the relationship between political
institutions and individuals.
The same chapter took a look at blogs. Blogs, in this author’s opinion, have brought
new actors onto the political scene. For example, Wael Ghonim, an Egyptian blogger
already known to us, was considered as a possible candidate for the Noble Peace Prize
in 2011. The American journal Time, which forms a list of the 100 most influential
people in the world, named Ghonim as one of the most influential persons in the world
in the same 2011.98
Chapter three provided a different view on how technologies affect politics. The chapter
highlighted the dangers for the regimes and security threats of the states. The rest
continued to discuss the power of social networks and blogs as this author believes that
they are part of the people’s journalism. These are very effective in cases where the
government does not provide information via the popular mass media sources or the
government does not have its own leverage to control the blogosphere. In these cases
98
Mohamed ElBaradei. Wael Ghonim. Spokesman for a Revolution.
55
the bloggers take this opportunity and provide people with valuable information
including the flavour of their own beliefs and ideas. As examples showed, this was one
of the main reasons that made the Arab Spring possible. With the help of social
networks, the wave of revolutions in 2011 moved from one state to another without
regard for national borders. The next concern was on whether criminals or terrorists can
use global networks, specifically the Internet, in their favour. Unfortunately, the Internet
has not only provided but also expanded opportunities for their criminal activities and
terrorism. The chapter provided examples of how international organized crime invaded
cyberspace; how terrorist groups spread their extremist information, engage in
fundraising activity and recruit new people. To fight these illegal activities states should
cooperate with the internet providers and corporations. Such content should be blocked
immediately by the corporations who own the web-pages. The next solution to fight
terrorism is simply to follow the money. As global networks provide opportunities to
collect money - and most of them are electronic - they can be traced. Once the route is
spotted, it should blocked to stop the flow of the funds for terrorist activities. The same
applies to any extremist content on the web.
The third chapter of the thesis also highlights that ICT made critical infrastructure
vulnerable to attacks from cyberspace. The author then evaluates the possibilities of a
cyberwar. At the end, the author concludes that a cyberwar will not start soon, however
some states may try single short attacks on other countries’ servers.
56
The last chapter, Chapter 4, analysed technological effects on battlefields and weaponry.
Continuing previous chapter themes on threats, IED were analysed first. As provided
statistics have shown, homemade bombs are the weapons that are effective and easy to
make. The author believes that there are solutions to fighting the threat of IEDs and they
are as follows. Firstly, there is a need for authorities to control the supply of materials
and components which can be used to craft a bomb. Second is the use of unmanned
systems or robots to defuse IED.
The next important part of the chapter took a look at the armed robots and drones. There
is no clear understanding on whether the use of armed drones is positive or negative.
Because statistics have shown that the drones are effective, i.e. they do damage terrorist
and kill the specific targets. On other hand, statistics have also shown that the use of
drones does a lot of damage to non-combatants. It is also unclear who is responsible if
armed drones or robots were to commit a war crime. Niccolo Machiavelli once held that
in war nothing really changes. This is of course not true. The new technologies have
brought many new features and have transformed warfare.
The last part, or excursus, was devoted to the latest Surveillance scandals connected to
with the name of Edward Snowden; also the chapter highlighted the potential threat to
the political opposition of current regime in repressive countries. Indeed author cannot
argue against the fact, that today new technologies provide governments possibilities
and tools to track people and organizations that are not only threat to citizens, but also
57
to the regime.
It is important to mention the limitation of this research paper. One of the main
limitations was the number of pages. There was a restriction on the length of this paper,
which is why this thesis did not evaluate the roles of telecommunications and satellites
or the use of technologies in border control and mapping. Critics may say that there
should be more information and discussion about the latest security leaks and
surveillance scandals. However, the author sees those leaks and scandals not as a
technological issue, but rather that the human factor had a larger role in those events.
The information was not stolen from outsiders, rather it was a clear example of
whistleblowing. Nonetheless, author is convinced that the Internet and global networks
had their impact in spreading information and making it open to many people.
For future research, one possibility would be done deeper research into topics that have
not been discussed in this thesis. Since technologies are constantly changing and bring
something new, maybe tomorrow they will have their own effect on the political world.
It would be interesting to explore the relationship between technological corporations
and governments since it looks as though in the era of new technologies the
corporations are gaining power. However, governments still try to control them. How
long can it last? Can corporations become the new governments? May technologies lead
real transition to corporatocracy and creation of Corporate Republic? All of these
questions may be asked in the future and research.
58
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