Published by the Institute for Public Administration,
a unit of the University of Delaware
School of Public Policy & Administration
Institute for
Public Administration
serving the public good, shaping tomorrow’s leaders
Demographics and Profiles of
Today’s Senior Population
By Julia O’Hanlon, Eric Jacobson, and Verity Watson | June 2014
Policy Brief
National Trends
According to the 2010 report of the United
States (U.S.) Census Bureau, Americans 65
and older (65+) accounted for 13 percent
of the nation’s population—the largest
percentage recorded nationally. The 65+
population has increased by about 15 percent
from 2000-2010, and is projected to further
increase to more than 55 million in 2020 (a
36 percent increase for that decade).1
Individuals are living longer, more active lives.
Compared with previous life-expectancy
rates, persons who reach age 65 today have a
greater life expectancy of an additional 18–19
years. Recent information links lifestyle and
behavioral influences to life-expectancy and
mortality projections.2 It is expected that by
2020, the 85 and older (85+) population will
total over six million —a 20 percent increase
from 2010.3
In addition to the significant aging of the
U.S. population over the next several decades
will be significant increases in racial and
ethnic diversity among the senior population.
While younger population cohorts currently
reflect more extreme diversity than the senior
population groups, the racial and ethnic
composition of the nation’s older adults will
continue to change quite profoundly over
the next two to three decades.4 Overall, the
aging of the nation’s population will have
wide-ranging repercussions over the next
several decades.5
Delaware’s Senior
Population at a Glance
As of 2010, Delaware’s 65-and-older (65+)
population accounted for about 14 percent
of the state’s total population. While recent
data ranks Delaware as only the fourteenth
fastest aging state, by 2030 projections
indicate that the number of 65+ Delawareans
will comprise approximately 23 percent
of the state’s total population. According
to these projections, the proportion of the
state’s seniors, compared to the state’s overall
population, will be larger than national
figures. 6
1 National profile of senior citizens information derived
from the U.S. Department of Health and Social Services’
Administration
2 According to a recent report published by the U.S.
Department of Commerce (using current Census Bureau
data), two primary drivers of mortality are smoking and
obesity. This report (Otrman, Velkoff, and Hogan, 2014)
discusses current demographic trends related to the
nation’s increasing senior population.
3 National profile of senior citizens information derived
from the U.S. Department of Health and Social Services’
Administration on Aging, A Profile of Older Americans:
2011 (2011).
4 Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. The State of
Aging and Health in America 2013. Atlanta, GA: Centers
for Disease Control and Prevention, US Dept. of Health
and Human Services (2013).
5 Ortman, Velkoff, and Hogan. , U.S. Department of Commerce, Economics and Statistics Administration. An Aging
Nation: The Older Population in the United States (2014).
6 Information about Delaware’s senior population is
derived from the Delaware Population Consortium.
Jurisdictional Trends among
Delaware’s Senior Population
New Castle County continues to have the highest
percentage of Delaware’s senior population, accounting
for about 51 percent of the state total in 2013. Sussex and
Kent Counties and the City of Wilmington follow with
approximately 33 percent, 17 percent, and 6 percent of
the state’s total 65+ population, respectively.
Between 2010 and 2030, Sussex County—Delaware’s
largest (geographically) and most rural jurisdiction—
will likely experience the largest percentage increase of
seniors and incur rapid growth in the number of “older,”
i.e., age 85 and above, seniors (85+).7
7 As indicated by the University of Delaware’s Center for Applied
Demography and Survey Research (CADSR)(2014), this represents
a projected percentage change (increase) between 2010 and 2030;
however, between 2013 and 2030, NCC is projected to have the highest
percentage increase of seniors. The projected growth rate differential
between Sussex and New Castle Counties has narrowed recently to
reflect shifts in the economy (impacting the net-migration rate to the
state’s lower counties) and the growing number of aging baby boomers
residing in NCC.
While there are a number of counties nationwide with
populations that are aging faster than Sussex, there
are three major trends related to the growth of Sussex
County’s senior population over the next several decades
that are important for policymakers and service providers
to recognize:
• The number of 65+ Sussex Countians is expected
to reach about 80,000—nearly twice the number
in 2010.
• Thirty percent of Sussex County residents will be
65+ compared to 23 percent statewide.
• The number of 85+ Sussex Countians will
increase dramatically, from 4,195 to just over
12,000—nearly a three-fold increase from 2010.
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Delaware’s Age Distribution 1950-2040
100%
80%
60%
40%
20%
0%
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
65+
103,093
114,223
130,317
158,999
187,648
217,743
243,100
256,494
258,906
45-64
176,907
212,749
245,856
258,716
259,348
250,628
246,247
251,740
267,238
20-44
288,306
291,369
291,207
302,534
311,611
322,166
327,401
327,465
324,774
0-19
218,068
226,809
233,855
231,480
237,551
241,910
243,490
246,007
248,368
0-­‐19 20-­‐44 45-­‐64 Source: University of Delaware’s Center for Applied Demography and Survey Research, 2012
65+