Feed market outlook
Millie Askew, Market Analyst
© Agriculture and Horticulture Development Board 2016
All rights reserved
Overview
• Global market overview
• UK market
• Looking ahead
• Keep in touch
Global market overview
Globally saturated market of both
wheat and maize
Global wheat production and
stocks
Ending Stocks
Production
800
260
1,100
750
240
1,000
700
220
650
200
600
180
550
160
500
140
Ending Stocks
250
900
800
150
700
100
600
50
450
120
500
400
100
400
0
Source: USDA
Million tonnes
Million tonnes
200
Million tonnes
Million tonnes
Production
Global maize production and
stocks
Growing supplies of soyabean,
falling OSR
300
250
200
150
Production
100
75
50
25
0
Ending stocks
80
Production (million tonnes)
Production (million tonnes)
350
Ending stocks
Stocks (million tonnes)
Production
Global rapeseed production
and stocks
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
Source: USDA
Stocks (million tonnes)
Global soyabean production
and stocks
UK feed wheat moving up in
the world
150
UK wheat futures, nearby
Paris wheat futures, nearby
Chicago wheat futures, nearby
145
140
£ per tonne
135
130
125
120
115
110
105
100
Source: AHDB
UK market overview
Much smaller wheat surplus
but barley surplus still large
UK barley balance
7
7
6
6
5
5
4
3
M tonnes
M tonnes
UK wheat balance
4
3
2
2
1
1
0
0
Source: Defra
Feed barley discounting
further from wheat again
180
170
Eastern region ex-farm prices
Feed wheat
Feed barley
£ per tonne
160
150
140
130
120
110
100
90
80
Source: AHDB
Maize competing for feed
demand?
UK feed wheat and imported maize prices
Feed wheat delivered (East Anglia)
Any Origin maize (CIF optional ports)
160
155
£3/t
(27 Jan)
150
145
£/t
140
135
130
£33.50/t
(1 Jul)
125
120
115
110
Source: AHDB
Looking ahead
New crop prices at widening
discount to the spot market
Crop 2015
Crop 2016
Crop 2017
Crop 2018
£ per tonne
160
140
120
100
Pre-planting
Growing
Storage
Factors impacting the 2017 crop price
Domestic S&D – yield,
variety mix and quality
Global production issues
and UK relativity
Further currency
volatility
UK wheat yields
Annual average UK yield
9.00
8.50
Previous five year
olympic average
8.00
7.50
7.00
6.50
Rebound in French
production?
Source: Defra
Keep in touch…
Thank you
[email protected]
024 7647 8968