Who Crossed the Border? Self-Selection
of Mexican Migrants in the Early
Twentieth Century
EDWARD KOSACK AND ZACHARY WARD
We estimate the self-selection of Mexican migrants into and out of the United
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manifests, which we use to proxy migrant quality and to measure self-selection
into migration in 1920. Migrants were positively selected on height compared to
the Mexican population. We link these migrants to the 1930 U.S. and Mexican
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the selection into return migration. Return migrants were not differentially selfselected on height relative to permanent migrants.
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1920s with the Immigration Acts of 1921 and 1924 which imposed quotas
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from Mexico remained relatively unrestricted.1 More individuals from
Mexico arrived in the United States during the 1920s than did migrants
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The Journal of Economic History9RO1R'HFHPEHU‹7KH(FRQRPLF+LVWRU\
Association. All rights reserved. doi: 10.1017/S0022050714000849.
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all migrants to pass a literacy test and to pay an eight dollar head tax. World War I also caused
a steep drop in migration leading some economists to cite 1913 as the end of the “Age of Mass
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and, among the migrants, those who decided to either stay or return.
In this paper we measure the pattern of selection into migration, and
then examine whether there is any differential selection into return
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and leave their native land, the economic consequences of the quality of
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higher or lower quality than those staying is important for understanding
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productivity, education, or health, then they were positively self-selected.2
To determine the pattern of selection one can compare the wages that
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of wages. We follow the recent direction of the literature comparing migrants only to those in the
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Self-Selection of Mexican Migrants
1017
Mexican migrants would earn in Mexico to the wages of those in Mexico
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from country to country, comparing wages once migrants have crossed
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of historical selection use aggregated measures of human capital, such
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in the historical immigration statistics were not representative of an indiYLGXDO¶VSODFHLQWKHVNLOOGLVWULEXWLRQEHFDXVHPLJUDQWVOLVWHGGRZQJUDGHG
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then these data would systematically underestimate the true quality of a
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individual and do not allow us to look at how migrants differed from the
home population within reported occupation or skill class.
We use height as an alternative measure of the historical self-selection
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individual, important when there is little variation in migrant occupation.
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Much of the migration from Mexico to the United States was temporary, and many individuals returned home instead of settling permanently
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direction of selection for return migrants is unclear. Return migrants may
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To determine the selection of the migrant population compared to the
home population, we compare heights for migrants to samples of heights
for soldiers in the military and for those who applied for passports in
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a sample of return migrants. We compare the heights of each sample
to determine the self-selection of return migrants relative to permanent
migrants.
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within occupational skill class as the United States received the taller
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selection on height into return migration. Our measured result of positive
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of the overall stock of Mexican migrants in the United States in the early
twentieth century.
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Mexican migration patterns transformed dramatically during the early
twentieth century. The Mexican Revolution pushed migrants out during
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Self-Selection of Mexican Migrants
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the 1910s, while the immigration quotas of 1921 and 1924 curtailed
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how the self-selection process operated with limited, confounding institutional factors.
While there were some restrictions to entering the country in 1920,
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of our sample comes from central Mexico. Second, the United States
only started to systematically collect immigrant records for individuals
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and after the 1917 legislation provides evidence that the literacy requirement was not enforced
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than other workers and attempted to keep them from returning home after
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Mexico, they simultaneously passed qualitative restrictions on migration
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Self-Selection of Mexican Migrants
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the literacy test is clear when comparing male migrant literacy rates to
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agricultural workers were waived from the literacy test and head tax,
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The literacy test did not appear to restrict migration from Southern
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into migration to the United States. If the migrants who leave from the
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stayers, then self-selection is negative.
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opportunities were plentiful for Mexican workers. In the southwestern
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1920s meatpackers and manufacturers in the Midwest and Northeast
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negatively self-selected with the empirical evidence that they are intermediately self-selected. This shift in the literature from focusing on the
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areas and from places with different intensities of migrant networks
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individuals from traveling. While improvements in transportation from
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the Mexican railroad in the late nineteenth century, lowered the cost of
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1917 migration legislation required all migrants to pay an eight dollar
head tax. Although the enforcement of this law during 1920 is unclear, if
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VHOHFWLRQFRXOGKDYHEHHQSRVLWLYH
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$EUDPLW]N\HWDO+DWWRQDQG:LOOLDPVRQ6WRO]DQG
%DWHQOLWWOHLVNQRZQDERXWVHOHFWLRQRI0H[LFDQPLJUDWLRQWRWKH
8QLWHG6WDWHVGXULQJWKHHDUO\WZHQWLHWKFHQWXU\=DGLD)HOLFLDQR
is the only paper to our knowledge that explores the historical selfVHOHFWLRQ RI 0H[LFDQ PLJUDQWV ¿QGLQJ WKDW LQ 0H[LFDQV LQ WKH
United States had a higher rate of literacy than did the general Mexican
SRSXODWLRQ:HH[WHQGKHUUHVXOWVE\LQFRUSRUDWLQJHYLGHQFHRQ LPPLJUDQWVIROORZLQJWKH0H[LFDQ5HYROXWLRQE\XVLQJDPHDVXUHKHLJKW
WKDW LV FRQVWDQW DFURVV ERUGHUV DQG E\ H[SORULQJ WKH VHOIVHOHFWLRQ RI
Self-Selection of Mexican Migrants
1023
return migrants which could alter the quality of the stock of Mexican
PLJUDQWVREVHUYHGLQWKHFHQVXV
+(,*+7$6$0($685(2)6(/(&7,21
0XOWLSOHPHWULFVRIKXPDQFDSLWDOKDYHEHHQXVHGLQVWXGLHVRIVHOHFWLRQ
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DQG:DQDPDNHUDJHKHDSLQJ6WRO]DQG%DWHQ$¶+HDUQHW
DODQG\HDUVRIHGXFDWLRQDQGOLWHUDF\)HOLFLDQR:HKDYH
no data on the wages and education level of Mexican migrants in 1920,
and so we use height to measure the quality of an individual migrant.
:KHQLQFRPHDQGZDJHGDWDDUHQRWDYDLODEOHHFRQRPLVWVPXVWUHO\
on other measures to proxy for standard of living. In particular, height
DVDPHDVXUHKDVEHHQXVHGVLQFHLWLVSRVLWLYHO\FRUUHODWHGZLWKLQFRPH
and improved health and nutrition.5+LJKHUOLYLQJVWDQGDUGVZLWKDPSOH
food during childhood increase height, while poor nutrition and health
can stunt growth.
Not only does the average height of a society indicate overall health
DQGZHOOEHLQJEXWWDOOHUSHRSOHDOVRHDUQPRUHWKDQWKHLUVKRUWHUFRXQWHUSDUWVZLWKLQDFRXQWU\)RUH[DPSOH3DXO6FKXOW]VKRZVWKDWD
one centimeter increase in height leads to an 8 to 10 percent increase in
ZDJHVLQ%UD]LODQG*KDQD7KHUHWXUQWRSK\VLFDOVWUHQJWKLVHVSHFLDOO\
important in developing countries where large sectors of the economy
UHO\ RQ WKH SK\VLFDO SURGXFWLYLW\ RI ODERU +HLJKW LV D GHWHUPLQDQW RI
ZDJHV LQ WKHVH FRXQWULHV VLQFH ODUJHU DQG VWURQJHU PHQ DV PHDVXUHG
E\ %RG\ 0DVV ,QGH[ DUH UHZDUGHG LQ WKH ODERU PDUNHW 7KRPDV DQG
6WUDXVV 0H[LFDQ PLJUDQWV ZRUNHG LQ ODERULQWHQVLYH LQGXVWULHV
VXFKDVPLQLQJUDLOURDGFRQVWUXFWLRQDQGIDUPODERUZKHUHLPSURYHG
SK\VLRORJ\FRXOGOHDGWRKLJKHUSURGXFWLYLW\&ODUN8QLWHG6WDWHV
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1LFROD3HUVLFR$QGUHZ3RVWOHZDLWHDQG'DQ6LOYHUPDQDUJXH
that higher wages for taller individuals are due to non-cognitive characWHULVWLFVIRUH[DPSOHFRQ¿GHQFHZKLOHRWKHUV&DVHDQG3D[VRQ
6FKLFNDQG6WHFNHODUJXHWKDWHDUO\FKLOGKRRGLQSXWVLQWRKHDOWK
and nutrition can increase the cognitive functioning of an individual later
LQOLIH)RUH[DPSOHWDOOHULQGLYLGXDOVDUHPRUHOLNHO\WRUHPHPEHUWKHLU
H[DFWGDWHRIELUWK+XPSKULHVDQG/HXQLJDQGWDOOHULQGLYLGXDOV
5
6HH6WHFNHODQGIRUDUHYLHZRIKHLJKWVWXGLHV
1024
Kosack and Ward
VFRUHKLJKHURQHDUO\FKLOGKRRGFRJQLWLYHDQGQRQFRJQLWLYHWHVWV&DVH
DQG3D[VRQ(LWKHUZD\WKHHYLGHQFHVXJJHVWVWKDWWDOOHULQGLYLGuals, on average, earn higher wages. If the migrants who arrived in the
United States were taller than those who remained in Mexico, then this
would indicate a pattern of positive selection for Mexican migrants.
'$7$
Border Crossing Manifests
To understand exactly who migrated to the United States from
Mexico in 1920, we construct a unique dataset from the manifest lists for
WKRVHFURVVLQJDWWKHERUGHUWRZQVRI$MR$UL]RQD'RXJODV$UL]RQD
%URZQVYLOOH7H[DVDQG(O3DVR7H[DVLQ,Q)LJXUHZHVKRZ
the geographical coverage of our sample.7+HLJKWZDVUHFRUGHGRQHDFK
PDQLIHVWE\ERUGHURI¿FLDOVDQGZDVRIWHQURXQGHGWRWKHQHDUHVWTXDUWHU
LQFK,QDGGLWLRQWRKHLJKWPXFKPRUHLQIRUPDWLRQDERXWPLJUDQWVXSRQ
DUULYDO ZDV UHFRUGHG RQ WKH PDQLIHVW LQFOXGLQJ GHPRJUDSKLF DJH
VH[ PDULWDOVWDWXV JHRJUDSKLF SODFHRI ELUWK SODFH RI ODVW UHVLGHQFH
LQWHQGHGGHVWLQDWLRQHFRQRPLFRFFXSDWLRQVDYLQJVDQGQHWZRUNMRLQ
DIULHQGUHODWLYHRUHPSOR\HUGDWD:HFROOHFWDOODYDLODEOHGDWDIRUHDFK
DGXOWPDOH\HDUVRUROGHUFODVVL¿HGDVDQLPPLJUDQW8 In total, we
KDYHPLFURGDWDIRUPDOHPLJUDQWVZKRFURVVHGWKHERUGHULQ
To determine the representativeness of our sample, we compare the
characteristics of our migrants with those of similar migrants recorded
LQWKH8QLWHG6WDWHV&HQVXV:HXVHWKHSHUFHQW,QWHJUDWHG
3XEOLF8VH0LFURGDWD6HULHV,3806VDPSOHWRLGHQWLI\PLJUDQWVZKR
arrived in the previous year, who were literate, over the age of 18, and male
5XJJOHVHWDO2XUVDPSOHLVUHSUHVHQWDWLYHRIWKHGLVWULEXWLRQRI
1DWLRQDO$UFKLYHV0H[LFDQ%RUGHU&URVVLQJ5HFRUGV³0DQLIHVWVRI$OLHQ$UULYDOVDW$MR
/XNHYLOOHDQG6RQR\WD6RQRLWD$UL]RQD-DQXDU\±'HFHPEHUDQGDW/RV(EDQRV
7H[DV'HFHPEHU±0D\UROOV´QR$³1RQVWDWLVWLFDO0DQLIHVWVDQG6WDWLVWLFDO
,QGH[&DUGVRI$OLHQV$UULYLQJDW'RXJODV$UL]RQD-XO\±'HFHPEHUUROOV´QR
0³6WDWLVWLFDODQG1RQVWDWLVWLFDO0DQLIHVWVRI$OLHQ$UULYDOVDW%URZQVYLOOH7H[DV)HEUXDU\
±-XQHDQG5HODWHG,QGH[HVUROOV´QR0DQG³0DQLIHVWVRI6WDWLVWLFDO$OLHQ
$UULYDOVDW(O3DVR7H[DV0D\±2FWREHUUROOV´QR$
7
7KHUHLVQRV\VWHPDWLFGLIIHUHQFHLQWKHRXWFRPHRILQWHUHVWKHLJKWDFURVVERUGHUWRZQVDIWHU
FRQWUROOLQJIRUVWDWHDQGGHFDGHRIELUWK¿[HGHIIHFWVVXJJHVWLQJWKDWKHLJKWVZHUHFRQVLVWHQWO\
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8
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SODFHRIELUWKZDVRXWVLGHRIWKH8QLWHG6WDWHVDQGWKH¿QDOGHVWLQDWLRQZDVZLWKLQWKH8QLWHG
States.
Self-Selection of Mexican Migrants
1025
FIGURE 3
/2&$7,21 2)%25'(56
5 7$7,216 $1'5(*,216 ,10(;,&2
Notes$GGLWLRQDOERUGHUVWDWLRQVZHUHORFDWHGLQ/XNHYLOOH$=1DFR$=1RJDOHV$=6DVDEH
$= 6RQR\WD $= &ROXPEXV 10 $QGUDGH &$ 6DQ <VLGUR &$ 'HO 5LR 7; (DJOH 3DVV
7;/DUHGR7;DQG5LR*UDQGH&LW\7;5HJLRQRIELUWKLVVSOLWLQWR1RUWK%DMLR&HQWHU
DQG 6RXWK 1RUWK LQFOXGHV %DMD &DOLIRUQLD 6XU %DMD &DOLIRUQLD 6RQRUD 6LQDORD &KLKXDKXD
&RDKXLOD1XHYR/HyQDQG7DPDXOLSDV%DMtRLQFOXGHV-DOLVFR&ROLPD0LFKRDFiQ1D\DULW6DQ
/XLV 3RWRVt 'XUDQJR =DFDWHFDV $JXDVFDOLHQWHV 4XHUpWDUR DQG *XDQDMXDWR &HQWHU LQFOXGHV
'LVWULWR)HGHUDO0p[LFR0RUHORV7OD[FDOD3XHEOD9HUDFUX]DQG+LGDOJR7KH6RXWKLQFOXGHV
*XHUUHUR2D[DFD7DEDVFR&DPSHFKH <XFDWDQ4XLQWDQD5RRDQG&KLDSDV
Source8QLWHG6WDWHVVKDSH¿OHIURPXVHUF¿W]SDWULFNDYDLODEOHDWKWWSZZZDUFJLVFRPKRPH
LWHPKWPO"LG IIHEHEDEDDHFDH 0H[LFR VKDSH¿OH IURP ,1(*, DYDLODEOH
at http://www.inegi.org.mx/geo/contenidos/geoestadistica/m_geoestadistico.aspx. Latitude
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JSVYLVXDOL]HUFRPJHRFRGH
skills for migrants recorded in the census with no statistical difference in
occupational mix.9 There is also no difference in marital status, although
RXU VDPSOH LV DERXW WZR \HDUV \RXQJHU DQG RYHUUHSUHVHQWHG E\ SHRSOH
moving to Texas.10
9
5HVXOWVIRUWKHUHSUHVHQWDWLYHQHVVRIWKHVDPSOHDUHDYDLODEOHDWKWWSVVLWHVJRRJOHFRPVLWH
HGZDUGNRVDFNUHVHDUFKDQGKWWSVVLWHVJRRJOHFRPVLWH]DFKDZDUGUHVHDUFK
10
7KHIDFWWKDWRXUVDPSOHLVRYHUUHSUHVHQWHGE\SHRSOHKHDGHGWR7H[DVLVDQDUWLIDFWRIWKH
PDMRULW\RILWEHLQJUHFRUGHGIURPWKH(O3DVRDQG%URZQVYLOOHERUGHUVWDWLRQV
Kosack and Ward
Our dataset captures only documented migrants.11 Although Louis
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ÀRZVHVWLPDWHVWKDWXQGRFXPHQWHGHQWULHVFRXOGKDYHEHHQVXEVWDQWLDO
for the decade from 1910 to 1920, he also admits that there is a lack of
UHOLDEOHLQIRUPDWLRQWRPDNHDVWXG\RIWKLVSRSXODWLRQIHDVLEOH7REH
SUHFLVHRXUUHVXOWVDSSO\WRWKRVHPLJUDQWVZKRFURVVHGWKURXJKRI¿FLDO
ERUGHUFURVVLQJVWDWLRQVDQGQRWQHFHVVDULO\WRDOOPLJUDQWV
7KHERUGHUFURVVLQJGDWDDOORZXVWRFUHDWHDSUR¿OHIRUWKH³W\SLFDO´
GRFXPHQWHGPDOHPLJUDQWZKRFURVVHGWKHERUGHUIURP0H[LFRWRWKH
8QLWHG6WDWHVLQDVVKRZQLQ7DEOH0DOHPLJUDQWVWRWKH8QLWHG
6WDWHV ZHUH RQ DYHUDJH \HDUV ROG HTXDOO\ OLNHO\ WR EH PDUULHG DV
VLQJOHDQGDOPRVWXQLYHUVDOO\UHFRUGHGDVOLWHUDWH,Q)LJXUHZHVKRZ
WKHUHJLRQDOFODVVL¿FDWLRQZHXVHIRUWKHVWDWHRIELUWK12 Immigrants came
most often from central and northern Mexico, with very few coming from
the southern states.13 $ ODUJH SRUWLRQ RI RXU PLJUDQWV ZHUH ERUQ LQ WKH
0H[LFDQ VWDWHV RI &KLKXDKXD *XDQDMXDWR DQG -DOLVFR ZKLFK DUH VWLOO
KLJKVHQGLQJVWDWHVWRGD\DQGPRVWUHSRUWHGD¿QDOGHVWLQDWLRQRI7H[DV
Only 14 percent of migrants in the sample reported meeting someone
IULHQGUHODWLYHRUHPSOR\HUXSRQHQWU\PXFKORZHUWKDQ(XURSHDQVLQ
ZLWKSHUFHQWRI*HUPDQVSHUFHQWRI,WDOLDQVDQGSHUFHQWRI
*UHHNVMRLQLQJDQHWZRUNXSRQDUULYDO14 On average, Mexican migrants
EURXJKWDFURVVWKHERUGHU
We classify migrants as unskilled, skilled, or professional workers
EDVHG RQ WKHLU UHSRUWHG RFFXSDWLRQ15 7KH PDMRULW\ DERXW SHUFHQW
RI LPPLJUDQWV LQ WKH VDPSOH ZHUH XQVNLOOHG ,W LV EHFDXVH RI WKLV ODFN
of variation in skill class that occupational rankings yield little informaWLRQLQGHWHUPLQLQJVHOIVHOHFWLRQ+HLJKWDOORZVXVWRH[DPLQHZKHWKHU
PLJUDQWV ZLWKLQ D JLYHQ RFFXSDWLRQDO FODVV ZHUH EHWWHU RU ZRUVH WKDQ
non-migrants remaining in Mexico.
11
Migrating to the United States was not technically illegal until later in the 1920s, when the
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(XURSHDQHWKQLFLWLHVWKDWWULHGWRHQWHUWKH8QLWHG6WDWHVWKURXJKWKHVRXWK)RHUVWHU1JDL
7KH%RUGHU3DWUROEHJDQLQZLWKDIRUFHRIPHPEHUV&DUWHUHWDO7DEOH
$G
12
:HIROORZWKHVDPHUHJLRQRIELUWKFODVVL¿FDWLRQDV/ySH]$ORQVRDQG&RQGH\WR
PDLQWDLQFRQVLVWHQF\DFURVVVDPSOHV$FRPPRQELUWKSODFHIRUDPLJUDQWFURVVLQJDW(O3DVRZDV
*XDGDODMDUD-DOLVFR7KLVUHSUHVHQWVDMRXUQH\RIDERXWNLORPHWHUV
13
It is well noted that the construction of the Mexican railroad helped transport Mexicans to the
8QLWHG6WDWHV+RZHYHUWKHUDLOURDGGLGQRWUHDFKWKHVRXWKHUQVWDWHVEHORZ9HUDFUX]E\
ZKLFKH[SODLQVZK\IHZRIRXUREVHUYDWLRQVDUHIURPWKHVRXWKHUQ0H[LFDQVWDWHV
14
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15
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1027
Self-Selection of Mexican Migrants
TABLE 1
6800$5<67$7,67,&6 )25
5 0,*5$170,/,7$5< $1'3$6632576$03/(6
Migrant Sample
Military Sample
3DVVSRUW6DPSOH
+HLJKWFHQWLPHWHUV
170.15
$JHDWPHDVXUHPHQW\HDUV
28.37
Unskilled
0.87
0.10
0.77
0.21
—
—
—
—
3URIHVVLRQDO
0.03
0.02
—
—
Literate
0.99
—
—
—
—
Married
0.49
—
—
—
—
Single
0.48
—
—
—
—
Widowed
0.02
—
—
—
—
+HDGHGWR&DOLIRUQLD
0.07
—
—
—
—
+HDGHGWR7H[DV
0.81
—
—
—
—
+HDGHGWR$UL]RQD
0.08
—
—
—
—
North
0.22
0.19
—
—
%DMLR
0.75
0.30
—
—
&HQWHU
0.03
0.40
—
—
South
0.00
0.11
—
—
Meeting no one
—
—
—
—
Meeting friend
0.01
—
—
—
—
Meeting relative
0.13
—
—
—
—
&DVKRQKDQG
38.73
—
—
—
—
3,884
1,249
9DULDEOH
Skilled
2EVHUYDWLRQV
Notes: 6WDQGDUGGHYLDWLRQVDUHLQSDUHQWKHVHV3URSRUWLRQVDUHUHSRUWHGXQOHVVRWKHUZLVHQRWHG
Source%RUGHUFURVVLQJPDQLIHVWVDQG/ySH]$ORQVR
1028
Kosack and Ward
Comparison Samples: Military and Passport Data
7RPDNHDQLQIHUHQFHDERXWWKHVHOHFWLRQRIPLJUDQWVIURP0H[LFRZH
need to compare the heights of migrants to those living within Mexico.
+HUHZHXVHWZRGLVWLQFWVDPSOHV²PLOLWDU\VROGLHUVDQGSDVVSRUWKROGHUV
+RZDUG%RGHQKRUQ7LPRWK\*XLQQDQHDQG7KRPDV0UR]ZDUQ
that samples of historical heights are likely selected, which could lead to
LQFRUUHFWLQIHUHQFHVDERXWWKHXQGHUO\LQJSRSXODWLRQ:HDFNQRZOHGJH
WKDWERWKRIWKHVHVDPSOHVDUHQRWUHSUHVHQWDWLYHDVWKHPLOLWDU\VDPSOH
LV IURP WKH ORZHU SDUW RI WKH KHLJKW GLVWULEXWLRQ RI 0H[LFR DQG SDVVSRUWUHFRUGVDUHIURPWKHXSSHUSDUWRIWKHKHLJKWGLVWULEXWLRQRI0H[LFR
/ySH]$ORQVR/ySH]$ORQVRDQG&RQGH\+RZHYHU
E\FRPSDULQJPLJUDQWVWRERWKVDPSOHVDQGGHWHUPLQLQJZKLFKVDPSOH
PLJUDQWVPRVWFORVHO\UHVHPEOHZHFDQLQIHUZKHWKHUPLJUDQWVZHUHSRVLtively or negatively selected.
The Secretaría Nacional de la Defensa houses federal military records
in the Archivo de Concentración, recording deceased soldiers in the
Sección de Personal Extinto and deserters in the Sección de Cancelados
/ySH]$ORQVR DQG &RQGH\ Since the military did not have
required service until 1939, only those who made the choice to join the
military appear in the data.
&KDUDFWHULVWLFVRIWKHPLOLWDU\VDPSOHDUHDOVROLVWHGLQ7DEOH:H
show that 77 percent of military males were in unskilled occupations
and that individuals were well represented across different regions of
0H[LFR$W¿UVWJODQFHWKHPLOLWDU\VDPSOHDSSHDUVWREHKLJKHUVNLOOHG
than the migrant group, since 87 percent of migrants were unskilled
compared to 77 percent of individuals in the military, implying negaWLYHVHOIVHOHFWLRQ+RZHYHUPLJUDQWVPD\KDYHUHSRUWHGLQWHQGHGRFFXpation rather than previous occupation, leaving their true position in
WKH VNLOO GLVWULEXWLRQ RI 0H[LFR XQFOHDU ,PSRUWDQWO\ D FRPSDULVRQ RI
DYHUDJHKHLJKWUHYHDOVWKDWPLJUDQWVZHUHQHDUO\¿YHFHQWLPHWHUVWDOOHU
WKDQWKRVHLQWKHPLOLWDU\:HLOOXVWUDWHWKLVFRPSDULVRQLQ)LJXUHE\
VKRZLQJ WKDW WKH HVWLPDWHG KHLJKW GLVWULEXWLRQ IRU WKH PLJUDQW VDPSOH
OLHVZHOOWRWKHULJKWRIWKHHVWLPDWHGKHLJKWGLVWULEXWLRQIRUWKHPLOLWDU\
sample.
%LUWK UHFRUGV GLG QRW EHFRPH ZLGHO\ DYDLODEOH XQWLO WKH V VR WKH PLOLWDU\ NHSW WUDFN
RI PHPEHUV ZKR PLJKW SRWHQWLDOO\ GHVHUW E\ UHFRUGLQJ WKHLU KHLJKW SODFH RI ELUWK DJH DQG
occupation. The Sección de Cancelados FRQWDLQVLQIRUPDWLRQRQPHPEHUVRIWKHPLOLWDU\ZKR
GHVHUWHGWKHDUP\EHIRUHWKHLUVHUYLFHWLPHHQGHGDQGWKHSección de Personal Extinto contains
LQGLYLGXDOVZKRGLHGLQVHUYLFHRUUHWLUHGDQGWKHQGLHGDIWHUZDUGV/ySH]$ORQVR7KH
PDMRULW\RIWKHPLOLWDU\GDWDLVIRULQGLYLGXDOVZKRMRLQHGWKH0H[LFDQ$UP\EHWZHHQDQG
1935.
Self-Selection of Mexican Migrants
1029
FIGURE 4
+(,*+76,00,*5$17662/',(56$1' 3$663257 $33/,&$176
Notes2EVHUYDWLRQVEHORZFPLQKHLJKWDUHGURSSHGDOWKRXJKUHVXOWVDUHXQFKDQJHGLIWKH\
are included.
Source 0LJUDQW KHLJKWV DUH IURP ERUGHU FURVVLQJ PDQLIHVWV 6ROGLHU DQG SDVVSRUW DSSOLFDQW
KHLJKWVDUHIURP/ySH]$ORQVR
We also compare migrants to a sample of passport applications
IURP 0H[LFR FROOHFWHG E\ /ySH]$ORQVR IURP WKH Archivo de
Pasaportes. Unfortunately, this sample only includes age and does not
JLYHUHJLRQRIELUWKRUVNLOOFODVVL¿FDWLRQV+HLJKWZDVQRWPHDVXUHGIRU
SDVVSRUWVEXWZDVVHOIUHSRUWHGSRVVLEO\FUHDWLQJDQXSZDUGELDVVLQFH
KHLJKWWHQGVWREHRYHUUHSRUWHG6SHQFHUHWDO6XPPDU\VWDWLVWLFV
LQ7DEOHVKRZWKDWSDVVSRUWDSSOLFDQWVZHUHRQO\DERXWRQHDQGDKDOI
FHQWLPHWHUVWDOOHUWKDQWKRVHLPPLJUDWLQJWRWKH8QLWHG6WDWHV,Q)LJXUH
ZHVKRZWKDWWKHHVWLPDWHGKHLJKWGLVWULEXWLRQIRUWKHPLJUDQWVDPSOHOLHV
YHU\FORVHWRWKHHVWLPDWHGKHLJKWGLVWULEXWLRQIRUWKHSDVVSRUWVDPSOH
:KLOH WKH DYHUDJH PLJUDQW ZDV QHDUO\ ¿YH FHQWLPHWHUV WDOOHU WKDQ WKH
DYHUDJHPHPEHURIWKHPLOLWDU\KHZDVVLPLODULQKHLJKWWRWKHDYHUDJH
passport applicant.
(67,0$7,1*6(/)6(/(&7,21,1720,*5$7,21
:HXWLOL]HDOLQHDUUHJUHVVLRQPRGHOWRH[SORUHWKHSDWWHUQRIVHOHFWLRQDPRQJ0H[LFDQPLJUDQWVLQDVPHDVXUHGE\PLJUDQWKHLJKW
$OWKRXJKWKHDQDO\VLVRIWKHHVWLPDWHGGHQVLWLHVLQ)LJXUHVXJJHVWVD
1030
Kosack and Ward
SDWWHUQRISRVLWLYHVHOHFWLRQLWLVSRVVLEOHWKDWJUHDWHUVWDWXUHLVVLPSO\
correlated with other characteristics that are more prevalent in the
PLJUDQWVDPSOHVXFKDVDSDUWLFXODUUHJLRQRIELUWK7KXVZHHVWLPDWH
(TXDWLRQWRFRQWUROIRUPDQ\RIWKHVHDGGLWLRQDOFKDUDFWHULVWLFVWKDW
could confound our positive selection result.
eXi + Ji
Heighti = G0 + G1Migranti + IeX
$QLQGLYLGXDO¶VKHLJKWLVUHJUHVVHGRQDFRQVWDQWDQLQGLFDWRUYDULDEOHIRU
whether or not the individual is from the migrant sample, and a vector of
FRQWUROV)LQDODGXOWKHLJKWPD\QRWEHUHDFKHGXQWLO\HDUVRIDJHDQG
VRLQGLYLGXDOVZKRDUHEHWZHHQDQG\HDUVPLJKWVWLOOEHJURZLQJ
:H LQFOXGH GXPP\ YDULDEOHV IRU DJH ELQV RI ± \HDUV DQG ±
years in order to account for this pattern.17 We also include controls for
GHFDGHRIELUWKWRDFFRXQWIRUDQ\FRQGLWLRQVWKDWPD\KDYHDIIHFWHGWKH
KHLJKWRIDOOWKRVHERUQLQ0H[LFRGXULQJWKRVHWLPHV18 )XUWKHUPRUHZH
include geographic controls to account for any spatial pattern in Mexican
heights.19 )LQDOO\ZHLQFOXGHYDULDEOHVIRURFFXSDWLRQDOVNLOOFODVVZKLFK
DOORZVXVWRGHVFULEHKRZPLJUDQWVGLIIHUHGIURPRWKHUVZLWKLQVNLOOFODVV
Results of the selection regressions comparing the sample of male
migrants to the sample of males in the Mexican military are presented in
7DEOH&ROXPQV±)LUVWRXUHVWLPDWHVUHYHDOH[SHFWHGSDWWHUQVLQ
KHLJKWV)RUH[DPSOHDGXOWVLQWKH±\HDUDJHELQZHUHVKRUWHUWKDQ
DGXOWVRYHU\HDUVROGZKLOHWKRVHLQWKH±\HDUDJHELQZHUHRQO\
VOLJKWO\ VKRUWHU DQG WKH GLIIHUHQFH ORVHV VWDWLVWLFDO VLJQL¿FDQFH FRQVLVtent with human growth patterns. Also, those in the skilled class were
taller than those in the unskilled class, while those in the professional
class were taller than individuals in either of the other two occupational
skill classes, supporting the claim that height is correlated with income,
SURGXFWLYLW\DQGFRJQLWLYHDELOLW\6HFRQGWKHUHVXOWRISRVLWLYHVHOHFWLRQ DV PHDVXUHG E\ KHLJKW KROGV LQ HDFK RI WKHVH VSHFL¿FDWLRQV ZLWK
WKHPLJUDQWVDPSOHPHDVXULQJIRXUWR¿YHFHQWLPHWHUVWDOOHUWKDQWKRVH
individuals in the military sample. Migrants were taller than those in the
PLOLWDU\ HYHQ WKRXJK WKH\ UHSRUWHG ORZHUVNLOOHG RFFXSDWLRQV )LQDOO\
LQ&ROXPQZHVKRZWKDWPLJUDQWVZHUHWDOOHUWKDQWKRVHLQWKHPLOLtary within occupational skill class. Although the descriptive statistics
The results are qualitatively similar in regressions that exclude those under 24 years of age.
5HVXOWVDUHUREXVWWRWKHLQFOXVLRQRIELUWK\HDU¿[HGHIIHFWV
19
)RUH[DPSOHWKRVHERUQLQWKH1RUWKUHJLRQDUHVLJQL¿FDQWO\WDOOHUWKDQWKRVHLQRWKHUUHJLRQV
FRQVLVWHQWZLWKDGLHWULFKHULQSURWHLQZKLFKOHDGVWRWDOOHULQGLYLGXDOV6WHFNHO
17
18
1031
Self-Selection of Mexican Migrants
TABLE 2
6(/(&7,215(*5(66,216&203$5,1*0,*5$176 72 7+(0,/,7$5<
$1'3$6632576$03/(6
&RPSDULVRQ
Sample:
Military
Military
Military
Military
3DVVSRUW
3DVVSRUW
Migrant
4.831***
4.118***
±
±
$JH±\HDUV
—
—
±
±
±
—
—
±
$JH±\HDUV
—
—
±
±
±
—
—
0.200
'HFDGHRIELUWK
—
—
0.352
±
±
—
—
±
'HFDGHRIELUWK
—
—
±
±
±
—
—
±
'HFDGHRIELUWK
—
—
±
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'HFDGHRIELUWK
—
—
±
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0.184
'HFDGHRIELUWK
—
—
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—
0.491
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—
—
—
—
1.033***
—
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—
—
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—
%RUQ1RUWKUHJLRQ
—
—
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4.300***
—
—
—
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Skilled
—
—
—
—
—
—
0.924***
—
—
—
—
3URIHVVLRQDO
—
—
—
—
—
—
1.830***
—
—
—
—
170.1***
Observations
7,555
7,555
7,555
7,555
4,920
4,920
R-squared
0.124
0.138
0.165
0.169
0.010
0.014
&RQVWDQW
6LJQL¿FDQWDWWKHSHUFHQWOHYHO
6LJQL¿FDQWDWWKHSHUFHQWOHYHO
6LJQL¿FDQWDWWKHSHUFHQWOHYHO
Notes5REXVWVWDQGDUGHUURUVDUHLQSDUHQWKHVHV7KHRPLWWHGFDWHJRULHVDUHWKRVHRYHUDJHWKRVHERUQ
SULRUWRWKRVHERUQLQWKH6RXWKUHJLRQDQGXQVNLOOHGZRUNHUV
Source: %RUGHUFURVVLQJPDQLIHVWVDQG/ySH]$ORQVR
1032
Kosack and Ward
show that those who chose to migrate tended to come from lower-skilled
RFFXSDWLRQVZH¿QGWKDWZLWKLQVNLOOFODVVWKHLQGLYLGXDOVZKRPLJUDWHG
WHQGHGWREHWDOOHUWKDQWKRVHZKRZHUHLQWKHPLOLWDU\
:H DOVR SUHVHQW LQ 7DEOH WKH UHVXOWV RI VHOHFWLRQ UHJUHVVLRQV
comparing the sample of male migrants to the sample of males applying
IRU0H[LFDQSDVVSRUWVLQ&ROXPQVDQG&ROXPQDJDLQVKRZV
D VLPSOH FRPSDULVRQ RI PHDQV EHWZHHQ PLJUDQWV DQG SDVVSRUW DSSOLFDQWV ZKLOH &ROXPQ LQFOXGHV FRQWUROV IRU DJHV OHVV WKDQ \HDUV
DQGGHFDGHRIELUWK7KRVHLQWKHPLJUDQWVDPSOHZHUHRQDYHUDJHMXVW
under a centimeter and a half shorter than those in the passport sample.
*LYHQWKDWWKHGLIIHUHQFHLQKHLJKWLVTXLWHVPDOODQGWKHIDFWWKDWWKRVH
KROGLQJSDVVSRUWVSUREDEO\FDPHIURPWKHXSSHUHQGRIWKHGLVWULEXWLRQ
in Mexican society, this is additional evidence consistent with a pattern
of positive selection into Mexican migration in 1920.
Robustness Checks
:H SUHVHQW DOWHUQDWLYH VSHFL¿FDWLRQV LQ 7DEOH WR DGGUHVV FRQFHUQV
DERXW WKH 0H[LFDQ 5HYROXWLRQ DQG WKH HIIHFW RI WKH OLWHUDF\ WHVW
UHTXLUHPHQW ,W LV SRVVLEOH WKDW WKH VHOIVHOHFWLRQ UHVXOW LV QRW GXH WR
HFRQRPLF IRUFHV EXW UDWKHU EHFDXVH RI UHIXJHHV ÀHHLQJ WKH 0H[LFDQ
5HYROXWLRQ:HWHVWIRUGLIIHUHQFHVLQWKHSDWWHUQRIVHOHFWLRQE\UHJLRQRI
ELUWKWRGHWHUPLQHZKHWKHUSRVLWLYHVHOHFWLRQZDVVWURQJHVWLQWKH1RUWK
ZKHUH¿JKWLQJFRQWLQXHGDQGVKRZWKHUHVXOWVLQ7DEOH6LPLODUWRWKH
UHVXOWIRXQGIRUWKHZKROHVDPSOHLQWKHPDLQVSHFL¿FDWLRQPLJUDQWVERUQ
in the northern parts of Mexico were just over four centimeters taller than
QRQPLJUDQWVDQGGLGQRWH[KLELWDQDEQRUPDORUH[WUDRUGLQDU\SDWWHUQRI
selection that would give cause for concern.
,W LV SRVVLEOH WKDW WKH SDWWHUQ RI SRVLWLYH VHOHFWLRQ UHVXOWHG IURP WKH
OLWHUDF\ WHVW LPSRVHG LQ ZKLFK FRXOG KDYH EDUUHG ORZTXDOLW\
Mexican migrants. While the degree of enforcement of the literacy test for
0H[LFDQPLJUDQWVLQLVDPELJXRXVDVGLVFXVVHGHDUOLHUZHFRPSDUH
RXU VDPSOH RI PLJUDQWV WR D VXEVDPSOH RI PLOLWDU\ GHVHUWHUV IRU
ZKRPZHKDYHOLWHUDF\GDWDUHFRJQL]LQJWKDWWKHUHLVDGLIIHUHQFHLQKRZ
literacy is determined in the migrant and military samples. The literacy
test required the migrant to read and write a paragraph of 25 words in
D ODQJXDJH RI KLV FKRRVLQJ *ROGLQ ZKLOH OLWHUDF\ LQ WKH PLOLWDU\VDPSOHZDVGHWHUPLQHGE\ZKHWKHUWKHVROGLHUFRXOGVLJQKLVQDPH
/ySH]$ORQVRDQG&RQGH\2XU¿QGLQJWKDWPLJUDQWVZHUHSRVLtively selected still holds when comparing literate samples, and literate
migrants were more than three centimeters taller than their counterparts
in the military.
1033
Self-Selection of Mexican Migrants
TABLE 3
$/7(51$7,9(6$03/(63(&,),&$7,216 )25
5 0,*5$176(/(&7,21
5(*5(66,216
6DPSOH6SHFL¿FDWLRQ
Migrant
6DPSOH6SHFL¿FDWLRQ
Migrant
%DVHOLQH
Only literate
Only North region
Only unskilled
4.015***
2QO\%DMLRUHJLRQ
3.740***
Only skilled
4.294***
2QO\&HQWHUUHJLRQ
Only professional
5.274***
Only South region
—
—
—
6LJQL¿FDQWDWWKHSHUFHQWOHYHO
6LJQL¿FDQWDWWKHSHUFHQWOHYHO
6LJQL¿FDQWDWWKHSHUFHQWOHYHO
Notes5REXVWVWDQGDUGHUURUVDUHLQSDUHQWKHVHV7KHGHSHQGHQWYDULDEOHLQHDFKUHJUHVVLRQLV
KHLJKW(DFKUHJUHVVLRQLQFOXGHVWKHIXOOVHWRIFRQWUROVIRUDJHORFDWLRQRIELUWKDQGRFFXSDWLRQ
EXWRQO\WKHFRHI¿FLHQWRQPLJUDQWLVUHSRUWHG7KHFRPSDULVRQJURXSLVWKHPLOLWDU\VDPSOH
Source%RUGHUFURVVLQJPDQLIHVWVDQG/ySH]$ORQVR
Our results indicate that documented migrants to the United States in
ZHUHSRVLWLYHO\VHOIVHOHFWHGIURPWKHKRPHGLVWULEXWLRQEXWGRQRW
DFFRXQW IRU XQGRFXPHQWHG HQWU\ %ORFK HVWLPDWHV WKDW URXJKO\
111,000 undocumented individuals entered the United States over the
decade ending in 1920.208VLQJWKLVQXPEHULQFRPELQDWLRQZLWKWKHRI¿FLDOVWDWLVWLFVIRUPLJUDWLRQLQWKHVDEDFNRIWKHHQYHORSHFDOFXODtion suggests that the average undocumented migrant would need to have
EHHQ FHQWLPHWHUV WDOO FHQWLPHWHUV VKRUWHU WKDQ WKH DYHUDJH
male in the military and 14.5 centimeter shorter than the average docuPHQWHGPLJUDQWWRHUDVHWKHKHLJKWDGYDQWDJHRYHUWKHPLOLWDU\21 This
means that even though institutional constraints could cause negatively
VHOIVHOHFWHGLQGLYLGXDOVWRPLJUDWHXQRI¿FLDOO\LWLVXQOLNHO\WKDWXQGRFumented migration would cause a reversal of our positive selection result.
20
7KLVHVWLPDWHLQ%ORFKLVEDVHGRQHVWLPDWHVRIWKH0H[LFDQERUQSRSXODWLRQLQWKH
8QLWHG 6WDWHV IRXQG LQ RI¿FLDO VWDWLVWLFV 7KH 0H[LFDQERUQ SRSXODWLRQ XVHG LV YHU\ VLPLODU WR
HVWLPDWHVPDGHIURP,3806PLFURGDWD*XWPDQQHWDO*UDWWRQDQG0HUFKDQW
21
7KHRI¿FLDOPLJUDWLRQVWDWLVWLFVIRUWKH8QLWHG6WDWHVVKRZWKDWLQGLYLGXDOVHQWHUHG
WKHFRXQWU\OHJDOO\IURP0H[LFRIURPWR7KXVWKHWRWDOÀRZIURP0H[LFRIRUWKH
GHFDGHZDVZLWKXQGRFXPHQWHGHQWUDQWVDFFRXQWLQJIRUSHUFHQWDQGGRFXPHQWHG
HQWUDQWVDFFRXQWLQJIRUSHUFHQWRIWKDWÀRZ,IZHXVHDZHLJKWHGDYHUDJHRIGRFXPHQWHG
and undocumented migrants to measure selection, we can calculate how short the average
XQGRFXPHQWHGPLJUDQWZRXOGQHHGWREHWRHUDVHWKHFHQWLPHWHUDGYDQWDJHRYHUWKHPLOLWDU\
1034
Kosack and Ward
$&&2817,1*)255(78510,*5$7,21
Selection into Return Migration
0HDVXULQJMXVWWKHVHOHFWLRQLQWRPLJUDWLRQLVQRWVXI¿FLHQWWRXQGHUstand its long-term impact, especially when return migration was prevDOHQW DV LQ WKH FDVH RI 0H[LFR (YHQ WKRXJK PLJUDQWV ZHUH SRVLWLYHO\
VHOIVHOHFWHG IURP WKH 0H[LFDQ SRSXODWLRQ UHWXUQ PLJUDQWV FRXOG EH
differentially selected from the overall set of migrants, changing the
quality of the stock of migrants that remained in the United States permaQHQWO\ DQG WKH TXDOLW\ RI WKH VWRFN RI ODERU LQ 0H[LFR %RUMDV %RUMDVDQG%UDWVEHUJ
Whether migrants who made the decision to return were positively
RU QHJDWLYHO\ VHOIVHOHFWHG IURP WKH PLJUDQW SRSXODWLRQ LV DPELJXRXV
2QHSRVVLELOLW\LVWKDWPRVWPLJUDQWVZHUH³WDUJHWHDUQHUV´DQGUHWXUQHG
ZKHQ HQRXJK ZDV VDYHG WR LQYHVW LQ FDSLWDO EDFN KRPH OHDYLQJ WKHLU
TXDOLW\UHODWLYHWRSHUPDQHQWPLJUDQWVXQFOHDU0HVQDUG$QJHOXFFL
$OWHUQDWLYHO\LIUHWXUQPLJUDQWVZHUHWKRVHZKRIDLOHGLQWKHODERU
PDUNHW$EUDPLW]N\HWDOWKHQUHWXUQPLJUDQWVZRXOGKDYHEHHQ
negatively self-selected.
$QRWKHUSRVVLELOLW\LVWKDWUHWXUQPLJUDQWVGLGQRWPDNHWKHGHFLVLRQ
RQWKHLURZQDQGZHUHQRWYROXQWDULO\³VHOI´VHOHFWHGEXWZHUHIRUFLEO\
UHPRYHGE\IHGHUDORI¿FLDOVDVWKHODERUPDUNHWWLJKWHQHGDWWKHRQVHW
RIWKH*UHDW'HSUHVVLRQ+LVWRULDQVKDYHSODFHGHPSKDVLVRQWKHLQMXVtices surrounding mass deportations of Mexicans, with some estimating
that more than one million Mexicans, including children and U.S. citi]HQVOHIWWKH8QLWHG6WDWHVHLWKHUIRUFLEO\RUXQGHUWKHWKUHDWRIUHPRYDO
%DOGHUUDPDDQG5RGULJXH]7KHUHLVDGHEDWHKRZHYHURYHUWKH
VL]H RI WKH GUDPDWLF IDOO LQ WKH 0H[LFDQ SRSXODWLRQ GXULQJ WKH V
and whether the decrease was due to deportation or voluntary departure
*UDWWRQDQG0HUFKDQW7D\ORU0XFKRIWKHPDVVGHSDUWXUH
FRXOGVLPSO\KDYHEHHQDUHVXOWRIWKHZRUVHQLQJHFRQRPLFFRQGLWLRQV
0RVW RI WKLV PDVVLYH RXWÀRZ RI 0H[LFDQV RFFXUUHG ODWHU GXULQJ WKH
VRXWVLGHWKH\HDUVRIWKLVVWXG\EXWWKHUHZDVDVLJQL¿FDQWVRXWKZDUGPRYHPHQWLQWKHODWHV6RPHRIWKLVRXWZDUGÀRZZDVGXHWR
RI¿FLDOGHSRUWDWLRQVXQGHUZDUUDQWVZKLFKLQFUHDVHGDOPRVWSHUFHQW
IURP LQ WR LQ 5HSRUWV RI WKH &RPPLVVLRQHU
*HQHUDO RI ,PPLJUDWLRQ 7KLV QXPEHU RI GHSRUWDWLRQV LQ
ZDVODUJHUWKDQWKH0H[LFDQVOHDYLQJYROXQWDULO\DFFRUGLQJ
WR 86 VWDWLVWLFV 0H[LFDQ VWDWLVWLFV ZKLFK DUH PRUH UHOLDEOH WKDQ
86 GDWD VXJJHVW WKDW GHSRUWDWLRQV PD\ QRW KDYH EHHQ DV LPSRUWDQW
Self-Selection of Mexican Migrants
1035
According to Mexican sources, 70,129 individuals returned during 1930,
PDNLQJRI¿FLDOGHSRUWDWLRQVDPXFKVPDOOHUSHUFHQWDJHRIWRWDOUHSDWULDWLRQV +RIIPDQ 7D\ORU 22 +RZHYHU PDQ\ PRUH 0H[LFDQV
PD\ KDYH OHIW XQGHU WKH WKUHDW RI GHSRUWDWLRQ UDWKHU WKDQ EHLQJ OHJDOO\
GHSRUWHG$OWKRXJKWKHLPSRUWDQFHRIGHSRUWDWLRQVLVXQGHUGHEDWHWKH
VHOHFWLRQ RI UHWXUQ PLJUDQWV RQ KHLJKW FRXOG EH DOWHUHG E\ GHSRUWDWLRQ
SUHVVXUHVGHSHQGLQJRQZKRZDVSUHVVXUHGWROHDYHRUIRUFLEO\UHPRYHG
Linked Sample
To estimate the selection of return migrants, we link our sample of
PLJUDQWVIRUZDUGWRWKH8QLWHG6WDWHV&HQVXVIRUDVDPSOH
RISHUPDQHQWPLJUDQWVDQGIRUZDUGWRWKH0H[LFDQ&HQVXVWRJHW
DVDPSOHRIUHWXUQPLJUDQWV7KHOLQNWRWKH8QLWHG6WDWHV&HQVXV
LVEDVHGRQIRXUFKDUDFWHULVWLFV¿UVWQDPHODVWQDPH\HDURIELUWKDQG
FRXQWU\RIELUWK0H[LFR:HDOVROLQNRXUVDPSOHWRWKH0H[LFDQ
&HQVXV EDVHG RQ WKH VDPH IRXU FKDUDFWHULVWLFV EXW DUH DEOH WR PDWFK
RQ VWDWH RI ELUWK LQ 0H[LFR :H IROORZ DQ LWHUDWLYH PDWFKLQJ SURFHGXUHVLPLODUWR$EUDPLW]N\%RXVWDQDQG(ULNVVRQ23 In order to
OLPLWELDVIURPWUDQVFULSWLRQHUURUVZHDOVRVWDQGDUGL]HQDPHVXVLQJWKH
'RXEOH0HWDSKRQHDOJRULWKP24
Our linking strategy produces a set of migrants who are uniquely
OLQNHGWRWKH8QLWHG6WDWHV&HQVXVRUWRWKH0H[LFDQ&HQVXVOLQNHGWR
multiple people in the same census, not linked to either census, or linked
WR ERWK FHQVXVHV )DLOXUH WR OLQN WR HLWKHU FHQVXV LV PRVW OLNHO\ GXH WR
GHDWKQDPHFKDQJHRUWUDQVFULSWLRQHUURUZKLOHOLQNLQJWRERWKFHQVXVHV
or multiple times to the same census is likely due to extremely common
QDPHV 7KHVH JURXSV DUH GURSSHG IURP WKH VDPSOH )URP WKH RULJLQDO
PLJUDQWVZHKDYHDVDPSOHRILQGLYLGXDOVXQLTXHO\OLQNHGWR
WKH0H[LFDQ&HQVXVDQGXQLTXHO\OLQNHGWRWKH8QLWHG
6WDWHV&HQVXV25
22
2QHVLJQL¿FDQWGLVFUHSDQF\EHWZHHQWKHWZRVRXUFHVLVWKDW0H[LFRHQXPHUDWHGHYHU\ERUGHU
FURVVLQJ LQFOXGLQJ IRU H[DPSOH GD\ WULSV ZKLOH WKH 8QLWHG 6WDWHV RQO\ LQFOXGH WKRVH ZKR
SODQQHGWROHDYHSHUPDQHQWO\7D\ORU
23
$GHWDLOHGGHVFULSWLRQRIWKHPDWFKLQJSURFHGXUHDVZHOODVWKHOLQNLQJPDWUL[DUHDYDLODEOHDW
KWWSVVLWHVJRRJOHFRPVLWHHGZDUGNRVDFNUHVHDUFKDQGKWWSVVLWHVJRRJOHFRPVLWH]DFKDZDUG
research.
24
We use Ancestry.com to perform the linking process.
25
,QDGGLWLRQWRWKHVHPDWFKHVWKHUHDUHPLJUDQWVZKRDUHXQOLQNHGDQGPDWFKHG
WRERWKFHQVXVHV7KHHQXPHUDWLRQGDWHIRUWKH8QLWHG6WDWHVFHQVXVZDV$SULODQGWKH
HQXPHUDWLRQGDWHIRUWKH0H[LFDQ&HQVXVZDV0D\VRLWLVSRVVLEOHWKDWPLJUDQWVOHIWLQ
EHWZHHQGDWHVWREHFRXQWHGLQERWKFRXQWULHV+RZHYHUJLYHQWKDWPLJUDQWVZHUHDOUHDG\LQWKH
United States for ten years, this is unlikely.
Kosack and Ward
7KHUH DUH UHWXUQ PLJUDQWV RXW RI D WRWDO XQLTXHO\ OLQNHG
migrants, which yields a 44.2 percent return rate after ten years of
VWD\7KLVUDWHLVOLNHO\DQXSSHUERXQGIRUWKHWUXHUDWHRIUHWXUQVLQFH
transcription error and name changes were more likely to occur in the
United States. It is likely that transcription errors were more prevalent
in the United States than in Mexico as Mexican enumerators were more
IDPLOLDU ZLWK 6SDQLVK QDPHV )XUWKHU QDPH FKDQJHV ZHUH PRUH OLNHO\
WRRFFXULQWKH8QLWHG6WDWHVDVVRPHPLJUDQWVDQJOLFL]HGWKHLUQDPHVWR
JDLQIDYRULQWKHODERUPDUNHW%LDYDVFKLHWDO%\FRPSDULVRQ
the return migration rate for males calculated with administrative data for
the decade from 1920 to 1930 is approximately 13.3 percent. +RZHYHU
WKHVH DGPLQLVWUDWLYH UHFRUGV SUREDEO\ XQGHUFRXQWHG RXWPLJUDQWV DQG
WKHUHIRUHSURYLGHDORZHUERXQGRQRXWPLJUDWLRQUDWHV%DQGLHUDHWDO
7D\ORU
'HVSLWH WKH IDFW WKDW SHUPDQHQW PLJUDQWV DQG UHWXUQ PLJUDQWV HQGHG
up in different countries, their characteristics upon arrival, as shown
LQ 7DEOH ZHUH UHPDUNDEO\ VLPLODU 5HWXUQ PLJUDQWV DQG SHUPDQHQW
PLJUDQWV ZHUH VWDWLVWLFDOO\ LQGLVWLQJXLVKDEOH LQ WHUPV RI DJH PDULWDO
VWDWXV DQG FDVK RQ KDQG DW DUULYDO 3HUKDSV VXUSULVLQJO\ WKHUH ZDV QR
difference in network connections, which could have supported migrants
DQGDOWHUHGUHWXUQEHKDYLRU,PSRUWDQWO\WKHUHZDVDOVRQRVWDWLVWLFDOO\
VLJQL¿FDQW GLIIHUHQFH LQ KHLJKWV ZKLFK VXJJHVWV WKDW UHWXUQ PLJUDQWV
ZHUH QRW GLIIHUHQWLDOO\ VHOHFWHG IURP WKH PLJUDQW SRSXODWLRQ VHH
)LJXUH
Return migrants and permanent migrants were not similar in every
ZD\0LJUDQWVERUQLQWKH&HQWHUUHJLRQZHUHPRUHOLNHO\WREHSHUPDQHQW PLJUDQWV ZKLOH WKRVH ERUQ LQ WKH %DMLR UHJLRQ ZHUH PRUH OLNHO\
WR EH UHWXUQ PLJUDQWV27 Those who listed their intended destination
DV &DOLIRUQLD ZHUH OHDVW OLNHO\ WR EHFRPH UHWXUQ PLJUDQWV 7KH IXUWKHU
GLVWDQFHEHWZHHQVHQGLQJVWDWHVDQG&DOLIRUQLDOLNHO\LQFUHDVHGWKHFRVWV
RIUHWXUQLQJORZHULQJUHWXUQUDWHV%RUMDVDQG%UDWVEHUJ,QDGGLWLRQUHWXUQPLJUDQWVZHUHVOLJKWO\PRUHOLNHO\WREHXQVNLOOHGDOWKRXJK
the magnitude of this difference is small and only marginally statistiFDOO\VLJQL¿FDQW:KLOHWKHGLIIHUHQFHLQRFFXSDWLRQDOFODVVVXJJHVWVWKDW
7KLV LV FDOFXODWHG DV WKH WRWDO QXPEHU RI HPLJUDQWV IURP ± RYHU WKH DWULVN
SRSXODWLRQWRUHWXUQKRPHGXULQJWKHVJLYHQLQSUR[\E\WKHQXPEHUVRILPPLJUDQWVIURP
±VLQFHPRVWPLJUDQWVOHDYHIURPWKHSDVW¿YH\HDUV7KLVUDWHIRUPXODLVVLPLODUWR
WKHUHSDWULDWLRQUDWHLQ*RXOGEXWGRHVQRWFRUUHFWIRUQRQLPPLJUDQWVDQGQRQHPLJUDQWV
since our migrant sample only contains immigrants and not the other categories.
27
,W LV SRVVLEOH WKDW PLJUDQWV PRYHG EDFN DQG IRUWK DFURVV WKH ERUGHU PXOWLSOH WLPHV 7KH
5HSRUWRIWKH&RPPLVVLRQHU*HQHUDORI,PPLJUDWLRQLQWKHFORVHVWUHSRUWWRWKHVZLWK
DYDLODEOHLQIRUPDWLRQVKRZVWKDWSHUFHQWRIDUULYLQJ0H[LFDQLPPLJUDQWVKDGEHHQLQWKH
United States previously.
1037
Self-Selection of Mexican Migrants
TABLE 4
6800$5<67$7,67,&6 )25
5 3(50$1(17 $1'5(78510,*5$176
3HUPDQHQW0LJUDQWV
Return Migrants
'LIIHUHQFH
+HLJKWFHQWLPHWHUV
±
$JHDWDUULYDO\HDUV
27.77
27.88
0.112
Unskilled
0.855
0.888
0.0330*
Skilled
0.113
0.0854
±
3URIHVVLRQDO
±
Literate
0.994
0.997
0.00310
Married
0.439
0.472
0.0329
Single
0.543
0.509
±
Widowed
0.0188
0.0190
0.0002
+HDGHGWR&DOLIRUQLD
0.0877
±
+HDGHGWR7H[DV
0.799
0.831
0.0312
+HDGHGWR$UL]RQD
0.0739
±
North
0.225
±
%DMLR
0.707
0.0575**
&HQWHU
0.00949
±
South
0.000
0.00158
0.00158
Meeting friend
0.00922
0.0100
0.00078
Meeting relative
0.144
0.129
±
&DVKRQKDQG
29.24
34.11
4.87
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return migrants were negatively selected on occupation, it is unknown
whether occupation was intended or previous occupation, leaving their
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Estimating Selection into Return Migration
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we pool the return and permanent migrant samples and regress height on
an indicator for whether the migrant was a return migrant.
The results of the regression of height on return migration status are
SUHVHQWHGLQ3DQHO$RI7DEOH$VLPSOHFRUUHODWLRQLQWKH¿UVWFROXPQ
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Self-Selection of Mexican Migrants
1039
TABLE 5
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5 5(78516(/(&7,21
All
All
All
All
0.0744
±
0.00594
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Sample
Return migrant
± ±
Age at Arrival<40 &URVV/LQN
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;
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5HJLRQRIELUWK
—
—
;
—
;
;
;
;
;
;
;
;
Occupational class
—
—
—
;
;
;
1,430
1,430
1,430
1430
1,599
Unskilled
Skilled
Professional North
Bajio
Center
0.0949
–0.211
0.193
0.260
0.0433
–2.046
(0.340)
(1.128)
(1.808)
(0.673)
(0.370)
(3.864)
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
N/A
X
X
N/A
X
X
N/A
Occupational class
N/A
N/A
N/A
X
X
X
Observations
1,243
144
43
346
1,047
36
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Panel B:
Sample
Return migrant
Decade of birth
Age bins
Region of birth
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KHLJKW(DFKUHJUHVVLRQKDVGLIIHUHQWVDPSOHVSHFL¿FDWLRQV3HUPDQHQWPLJUDQWVDUHWKRVHPLJUDQWV
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and permanent migrants, once controlling for occupational structure there
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%DMLRRU&HQWHUUHJLRQ All regressions show no economically or statisWLFDOO\ VLJQL¿FDQW GLIIHUHQFHV EHWZHHQ return migrants and permanent
migrants in terms of height. Overall, our analysis suggests that return
migrants and permanent migrants had similar levels of human capital.
1040
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Robustness of Results for the Linked Sample
/LQNHGVDPSOHVPD\QRWEHUHSUHVHQWDWLYHRIWKHLUXQGHUO\LQJSRSXODWLRQVEHFDXVHWKHOLQNVDUHQRWPDGHDWUDQGRP6SHFL¿FDOO\DPLJUDQW
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While transcription error was likely random with respect to height, name
changes could have occurred more often for migrants intending to reside
permanently in the United States. If those migrants were more adept at
(QJOLVK RU DW DFTXLULQJ 8QLWHG 6WDWHV VSHFL¿F KXPDQ FDSLWDO WKHQ RXU
linked sample would underestimate the quality of permanent migrants.
$QRWKHUFRQFHUQLVWKDWPRUWDOLW\PLJKWELDVUHVXOWVLIWDOOHULQGLYLGXDOV
are healthier and likely live longer. We restrict the sample to migrants
arriving under the age of 40 who were less likely to die within ten years.
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HYHQ ZLWK WKH UHVWULFWHG VDPSOH ZH ¿QG QR GLIIHUHQWLDO VHOHFWLRQ LQWR
return migration.
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WKH8QLWHG6WDWHVDVPHPEHUVRIWKHKRXVHKROGWRHQXPHUDWRUV7KLVHUURU
ZRXOGLPSO\WKDWOLQNVWRERWKWKH8QLWHG6WDWHVDQG0H[LFDQFHQVXVHV
ZHUHDFWXDOO\SHRSOHZKRUHVLGHGLQWKH8QLWHG6WDWHV:HLQFOXGH
PLJUDQWVZKRZHUHXQLTXHO\OLQNHGWRERWKWKH8QLWHG6WDWHV&HQVXVDQG
WKH 0H[LFDQ &HQVXV LQ RXU VDPSOH RI SHUPDQHQW PLJUDQWV DQG UHJUHVV
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were not differentially selected from the population.
&21&/86,216
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the taller workers from Mexico. Mexican migrants were over four centiPHWHUV WDOOHU WKDQ PHPEHUV RI WKH 0H[LFDQ PLOLWDU\ DQG RQO\ RQH DQG
a half centimeters shorter than passport holders. The fact that Mexican
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RUIDFHGFUHGLWFRQVWUDLQWVOLPLWLQJWKHDELOLW\RIORZHUTXDOLW\0H[LFDQV
to migrate. This positive self-selection represents a “quality drain” or
“productivity drain” from Mexico to the United States.
)URPRXUOLQNHGVDPSOHZH¿QGWKDWUHWXUQPLJUDQWVZHUHQRWGLIIHUentially selected. Taller individuals migrated from Mexico, and migrants
REVHUYHG\HDUVODWHULQWKH8QLWHG6WDWHVZHUHMXVWDVWDOO7LPHDQGUHWXUQ
migration did not impact the quality drain on Mexico or the quality gain
Self-Selection of Mexican Migrants
1041
to the United States that resulted from positive self-selection into migration from Mexico.
This lack of selection on height for Mexican return migrants is in contrast
to negative VHOIVHOHFWLRQ RI PRVW (XURSHDQ UHWXUQ PLJUDQWV GXULQJ WKH
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people out of the United States than would otherwise leave and thus likely
altered the selection of return migrants. If the United States randomly
deported Mexicans without respect to human capital or skill then this
would lead to return migrants having the same human capital as permaQHQWPLJUDQWVZKLFKZH¿QG:KLOHSXUHO\HFRQRPLFIRUFHVPLJKWOHDGWR
the lowest performing migrants leaving the country, deportation policies
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Mexico and the United States in a variety of ways. The United States
received the relatively more productive Mexican workers, and these
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and the taller farmers left Mexico to work in the United States, draining
Mexico of human capital and lowering the productivity of the average
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from 1910 to 1990.” Explorations in Economic HistoryQR±
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2[IRUG8QLYHUVLW\3UHVV
)RHUVWHU5REHUW)DQG8QLWHG6WDWHVThe Racial Problems Involved in Immigration
from Latin America and the West Indies to the United States: A Report Submitted
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of Economic Perspectives QR±
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States, 1890 to 1921.” In The Regulated Economy: A Historical Approach to
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