THE INDEPENDENT AND NONPARTISAN SURVEY
OF PUBLIC OPINION ESTABl..ISHED IN 1947 AS
THE CALIFORNIA POLL BY MERVIN FIELD
550 Kearny Street, Suite 900
San Francisco, CA 94108-2527
(415) 781-4921 rCAX: (415) 4342541
COPYRIGHT 1995 BY THE FIELD INSTITUTE. FOR PUBLICATION BY SUBSCRIBERS ONLY.
Release #1763
Release Date: Thursday, September 7,1995
CLINTON RUNNING STRONGER
AGAINST POSSIBLE GOP
NOMINEES, LOSING ONLY TO
POWELL IN TWO-WAY MATCH-UPS.
IMPORTANT: Contract for this service is
subject to revocation if publication or broadcast
takes place before release date or if contents
are divulged to persons outside of subscriber
staff prior to release time. (ISSN 0195-4520)
By Mark DiCamillo and Mervin Field
While the 1996 Presidential election is fourteen months away, there are some significant
trends in evidence regarding current voter preferences among Californians:
•
Democratic President Bill Clinton has increased his margins of support against each of
the leading Republican candidates. Clinton now narrowly leads Senator Robert Dole,
the GOP front-runner, erasing earlier deficits. When matched against Governor Pete
Wilson Clinton has a commanding 19 point lead. Against other declared GOP
candidates, Clinton holds even larger leads ranging from 21 to 36 points.
The only instance where Clinton trails in a two-way Presidential match-up is when he
is pitted against Colin Powell. When the former Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff
is listed as a Republican he leads the President by five points in the current survey,
although this is down some from earlier surveys.
However, Powell does not do as well when he is listed as an independent candidate in
possible three-way contests against Clinton and each of the leading Republican
candidates. In these simulations, Powell places either second or third.
Ross Perot does less well than Powell, when the Texas financier is listed as the
independent candidate against the leading major party contenders.
These findings come from the latest Field Poll conducted August 24 - September 4
among a cross section sample of 735 registered Californians.
•
The Field (California) Poll has operated continuously since 1947 as an independent and impartial public opinion news service. The Po!1
is one of the services provided by The Field Institute, a non-profit, non-partisan organization devoted to the study of public opinion and
behavior on social and political issues. The Field Institute is dedicated to encouraging the widest possible dissemination of its survey
findings to the public and for the public benefit. The Institute receives support from academic, government, media, and private sources.
", ..
The Field Poll
Thursday, September 7, /995
..
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#/763
Page 2
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1:
Two-way races
.
In this survey the sample of voters was first offered twelve different Republicans paired as
possible opponents to Clinton.
The results summarized in the table below show Clinton losing only to Powell, narrowly
leading Dole, holding a big lead against Wilson, and far out-polling each of the other nine
GOP possibilities.
Table 1
1996 general election two-way pairings for President
(among all registered voters)
•
Sept•. May
1995
1995
Feb.
1995
Sept.
1995
May
1995
Feb.
1995
Powell
Clinton
Undecided
46%
41
13
49%
37
14
48%
40
12
Clinton
Keyes
Undecided
48%
23
29
49%
25
26
NA
NA
NA
Clinton
Dole
Undecided
47%
44
9
42%
47
11
44%
49
7
Clinton
Forbes
Undecided
51%
26
23
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
Clinton
Wilson
Undecided
54%
35
11
49%
39
12
48%
45
7
Clinton
Dornan
Undecided
53%
24
23
52%
30
18
53%
26
21
Clinton
Gramm
Undecided
53%
32
15
48%
32
20
48%
38
14
Clinton
Alexander
Undecided
54%
24
22
46%
26
28
47%
26
27
Clinton
Gingrich
Undecided
56%
30
14
54%
35
11
NA
NA
NA
Clinton
Lugar
Undecided
54%
24
22
47%
26
27
46%
27
27
Clinton
Specter
Undecided
48%
25
27
51%
28
21
52%
27
21
Clinton
Buchanan
Undecided
L:O
62%
,..".
56%
29
15
54%
32
14
12
NA: Not asked
Powell as an independent candidate
In the coming months Powell will begin a nationwide speaking tour in connection with the
publication of his book. It is expected that during or immediately after this tour he will
announce his intentions about whether he will be a candidate for the Presidency. The big
question if he does become a candidate, is whether he will choose to run as a Republican or
as an independent.
The Field Poll tested Powell's strength as an independent candidate against Clinton as the
Democratic nominee and either Dole, Wilson, or Gramm as the Republican nominee.
The Field Poll
Thursday, September 7, /995
•
•
•
#/763
Page 3
With Clinton and Dole as the major party nominees, Powell places third, as Clinton and
Dole share the lead with 33% each. When Wilson or Gramm are listed as the GOP
nominee, an independent Powell candidacy currently places second behind Clinton.
Table 2
1996 general election simulations for President
- Clinton vs. Powell as independent ­
and each of three leading GOP candidates
(among all registered voters)
Sept. 1995 May 1995
Clinton, Democrat
33%
35%
Dole, Republican
33
31
24
Powell, Independent
26
Undecided
10
8
35%
Clinton, Democrat
33%
31
32
Powell, Independent
25
Wilson, Republican
28
Undecided
9
7
36%
Clinton, Democrat
36%
Powell, Independent
31
35
Gramm, Republican
19
20
14
Undecided
9
Perot as an independent candidate
Another possible independent candidate is Ross Perot who ran in 1992 and captured 21 %
of the California vote. In simulated general election contests pitting Perot as an
independent against Clinton and either Dole, Wilson or Gramm, the Texas financier does
not achieve as high a level of support as Powell. Perot runs far behind in hypothetical races
against Clinton and each of the leading GOP contenders.
Table 3
1996 general election simulations for President
- Clinton vs. Perot as independent ­
and each of three leading GOP candidates
(among all registered voters)
Sept. 1995 May 1995
42%
Clinton, Democrat
40%
34
37
Dole, Republican
Perot, Independent
18
13
10
Undecided
6
45%
40%
Clinton, Democrat
31
30
Wilson, Republican
19
21
Perot, Independent
8
Undecided
6
45%
43%
Clinton, Democrat
23
23
Gramm, Republican
23
23
Perot, Independent
11
9
Undecided
-30­
J.t;~Ull.l) 1II
repon are Oased on a survey conducted August 24 - September 4, 1995
among a representative statewide sample of 734 Californians registered to vote. In order to
cover a large number of possible general election pairings and still minimize possible
respondent fatigue, the overall sample of voters was divided into two approximately equal
sized subsamples of 358 and 376 voters each. The survey was completed by telephone in
either English or Spanish using random digit dialing methods.
J.1lt;
lIllS
Estimates of sampling error relate to sample size. According to statistical theory, 95% of the
time results from each voter subsample would be accurate within +/- 5 percentage points.
There are many possible :;ources of error in any survey other than sampling variability.
Different results could occur because of differences in question wording, sequencing or
through undetected errors or omission in sampling, interviewing or data processing.
Every effort was made to minimize such errors.
Questions Asked
•
I am going to read some possible general election match-Ups for President next year. For each
pairing please tell me whom you would vote for if the election were being held today. What if
the choices were ... (NAME AND PARTY OF CANDIDATES, READ IN RANDOM ORDER)
- who would you prefer? (SEE RELEASE FOR PAIRINGS)
Suppose that in next year's Presidential election, there were three candidates running ­
(NAMES AND AFF:ILIATIONS OF ALL 3 CANDIDATES, READ IN RANDOM ORDER).
If the election were being held today and these were the candidates, who would you prefer?
(SEE RELEASE FOR CANDIDATES LISTINGS)