Global Investment Roundtable hroughout the 1990s, Canadian investors clamoured for more foreign exposure. Let’s think back to why that was. Partly, it had to do with the drooping dollar; in times of financial market stress, investors took refuge in the U.S. money market. Partly it had to do with the roller-coaster ride of commodity stocks, as gold and oil settled into cyclical lows. Partly it was the hollowing out of various industrial sectors, as key companies — remember BioChem Pharma, Seagram and Newbridge Networks? — were taken over by foreign investors. T Roundtable Participants • Charles Burbeck, Head of Global/ International Equities HSBC Halbis Partners • Anne-Mette de Place Filippini, Vice President & Portfolio Manager AIC Investment Services Inc. • Rory Flynn, Fund Manager & Portfolio Advisor AGF International Advisors Co. Ltd. • Bradley Radin, Senior Vice President & Portfolio Manager, Global Equity Management, Franklin Templeton Investments Corp. What’s changed now? Foreign stocks lost their allure during the bust years of 2000 to 2002, and for good reason: in many instances, valuations were far above historical norms. At the same time, domestic investors rediscovered the virtue of yield, whether in the form of dividends or distributions from income trusts. For the past three years, Canadian markets have outperformed, borne aloft by commodities, financials and trusts. How long that performance will last, no one knows. Is it time to take a second look and diversify outside of Canada? Prudence would suggest so, if only because of the dangers associated with a concentrated holding — in one company, one sector or, in fact, one country. Certainly, with the abolition of the foreign property rule, there are no longer any constraints — except the investor’s risk tolerance. To find out how risky the world beyond the oceans and below the 49th parallel is, we got four global managers to assess the opportunities outside Canada. What we weren’t looking for is the mantra frequently heard in the U.S. financial media: that large-cap growth is next for outperformance. Instead, we wanted to understand to what extent Canada stands apart from world trends; to what extent the value and small-cap surge that has dominated the U.S. market over the past three years has kin in other parts of the world; to what extent global markets have worked through the excesses of TMT — the technology, media and telecommunications stocks that dominated the late 1990s market run; and finally, the vulnerability of global stocks to imbalances in the world economy. Our panellists weren’t macroeconomists; they were stock pickers. Yet, the methodology behind their stock-picking that was on frequent display: not to try to guess where the next big thing will be, but the value that is here and now — and outside Canada. Sponsored By Charles Burbeck Head of Global / International Equities HSBC Halbis Partners Charles Burbeck joined HSBC Halbis Partners as Head of Global/International Equities in early 2005. He held an identical position at Fortis Investments in Boston, USA, which he joined in 2002. There are U.S. studies that indicate international diversification adds little by way of excess return and only a modest dialling down of volatility. Are those studies relevant to Canadian investors? Also, how closely correlated is Canada to the U.S., given the integration of the two economies? Bradley Radin: The benefits of diversification globally are much more pronounced for Canadian versus American investors. The U.S. is 50% of the world market while Canada is 3% – a very small chunk of the overall world market. The second angle is that the Canadian equity market is very narrow with only three sectors (banks, materials and energy) representing 70% to 75% of the Canadian marketplace. So you’re not getting diversification on a sector basis in Canada. These are very compelling reasons why Canadian investors should be invested overseas. Anne-Mette de Place Filippini: If you look at the hard facts and take a 20-year view, the correlation coefficient between Canada and the U.S. is about two-thirds and about half between Canada and non-North America. In other words, global markets, especially outside of 2 Sponsored By Prior to 2002, Charles spent his investment career at Schroder Investment Management in London. After joining as an analyst in 1990, he subsequently became a fund manager and Head of Global Sector Research where he established Schroder’s integrated global equity capability. Charles holds an MA in Economics from the University of St. Andrews and is an Associate of the Institute of Investment Management and Research. North America, are not strongly correlated to Canada and investors can add real diversification by investing abroad. Rory Flynn: Volatility is a pretty interesting measure but it’s quite a statistical measure. If, for example, you’re holding pension fund assets for a 10-year time frame, three-year volatility may be interesting but it’s not going to make a difference as to whether or not you’ll be able to retire. As a statistical measure, it has limited use for most typical mutual fund investors. We’re very much stock pickers, so what we value is the opportunity to go to as many places as possible. Charles Burbeck: I would echo what’s being said and just following along from the last point, we’re similar in the sense we’re stock pickers and to be able to get access to different types of companies in different stages of development or different product cycles is very, very interesting and we think creates a very attractive opportunity set for investors. Given the different fates of the two North American stock markets (U.S. & Canada) since the Great Bust, how careful should investors be about investing in other commodity economies, not just Australia and New Zealand, but some emerging economies as well? Anne-Mette de Place Filippini: Investors have to be careful not to double up on exposure, but instead invest in stocks that provide true diversification across sectors. Also, other markets provide better opportunities to invest in sectors such as consumer and healthcare stocks that are not well represented in Canada. Rory Flynn: We looked at markets over the past 30 years and found three great growth markets: the most recent one in the mid-1990s; one in part of the 1980s; and one in part of the 1970s. The one in the 1990s was the tech bubble — the great bust. In the 1980s, it was consumer-discretionary and the one in part of the 1970s was decidedly resources. People thought that there was this growth market going on, but in reality you had a very narrowly defined sector market. Charles Burbeck: There are plenty of opportunities to diversify if you’re worried about commodity prices. In terms of the global emerging market index, roughly 25% is directly related to energy and materials. That means that 75% of emerging market companies are not directly related to commodities and have interesting stories and cycles that are uncorrelated with what’s happening to commodity markets. Bradley Radin: It’s not much good if you try to diversify outside of Canada but have a global portfolio that’s 75% energy, financial, and materials. The benefit of going global for Canadian investors is that you can buy other sectors besides those that might hold up better if and when the bubble bursts within the three dominant Canadian sectors. Are U.S. equities still attractive? Rory Flynn: There has been an unwinding of the overvaluation of the U.S. markets since 2000. We’re particularly finding value in some financials at the moment. You’ve got some of the U.S. banks — Bank of America, Citi, US Bankcorp — these stocks have a P/E in the low double digits and dividend yields of 4%, so that’s good value. There’s also a bit of good value to be found in some of the telecoms and some of the retailers. The U.S. is coming back now with a P/E of 17.4, it’s better value than it’s been for almost a decade and we are beginning to see some interesting value in individual stocks. Bradley Radin: In general, most of our global portfolios are quite underweight in the U.S. — approximately half-weight in most cases. Having said that, it’s a big country with lots of stocks so there is a chance you can find some value even if the overall averages are not compelling. In general, we are finding value elsewhere. Anne-Mette de Place Filippini: We’re starting to find some good value there. Predominantly that value has shown up in the blue chip, large-cap stocks that really have been dogs for a long time — like Pfizer or Microsoft. We believe people are overly concerned about the long-term prospects of these companies, so we’ve been increasing our weight there. The U.S. is perhaps the model economy to invest in with its diversity of companies, industry sectors and company sizes. Are there things in the U.S. market (and by extension across the globe) that perhaps will have difficulty getting traction? Do you worry that with some of the companies (like Pfizer and GM) you might be getting stuck in a value trap? Although they’re trading cheaply, there’s no catalyst there to bring these companies up. Charles Burbeck: There are a large number of companies that were at some point classified as growth stocks and now they’re known as value stocks. You need to make sure you’re not trapped in something that is still deteriorating in terms of its business fundamentals and the returns you get. On Pfizer and GM, I still worry that their business fundamentals are going in the wrong direction and there are better options elsewhere. In the long term, the pharmaceutical sector should still be seen as growth because there is enormous unmet medical need and companies that have attractive products can still make very good returns. Bradley Radin: There’s always a risk that you do end up in a value trap; the challenge of performing fundamental analysis is to understand the sector and company issues and to figure out whether or not there is value at an individual company and make a call. Anne-Mette de Place Filippini: Trying to time a catalyst is a difficult game. A lot of risks are reflected in some of those stocks, particularly in the pharma sector. To get back to Pfizer, if you go back to the late 1990s and early 2000s, you’ll find that stock at $50 USD a share when the U.S. exchange rate was close to 60 cents. Now you can buy Pfizer at $23 USD with 90 cents on the U.S. dollar. That’s a 70% discount! People then thought it was a great growth stock, now no one thinks it can ever “Investors have to be careful not to double up on exposure, but instead invest in stocks that provide true diversification across sectors.” Anne-Mette de Place Filippini 3 Anne-Mette de Place Filippini, BA, MA Vice President and Portfolio Manager AIC Investment Services Inc. Anne-Mette de Place Filippini joined AIC in August 2000 as Vice President, bringing 10 years of broad business experience to AIC. Anne-Mette has been the lead manager of AIC Global Balanced Fund since its inception and was appointed lead manager of AIC World Equity Fund in March 2003 and co-manager of AIC Global Diversified Fund grow! When is pharma going to be seen more as a growth sector again? It’s tough to time that. We like the sector globally. Rory Flynn: In the U.S., the balance of payments is a thing that will have to be worked out. The U.S. can get out of that problem painlessly by growing less quickly than the global economy for a number of years. But the U.S. also may have an accident because a big balance of payments deficit like that does create the risk of one. So diversification is good if it gets you opportunity, but don’t walk into an opportunity blindly and miss some of the big macro things. To the degree that investors have been successful in the U.S. since the post-tech meltdown, it has been with value and small and mid-cap stocks. How long can that run last, or are these sectors now fully valued? Bradley Radin: For the average investor, spending a lot a time trying to get that call right isn’t worth it. It was a crazy time for growth five or six years ago but there was just such an extreme disconnect between the value that people were willing to pay for stocks 4 Sponsored By in April 2002 (lead manager since May 2003). Anne-Mette was formerly with strategy consulting firm Monitor Group, and prior to that Deloitte & Touche, where she held senior advising roles to large corporations in both Europe and North America on business and portfolio strategy, including mergers and acquisitions. Anne-Mette holds a B.A. (Economics) and a Master’s (Economics) degree from Copenhagen University. Part of her Master’s degree was earned at the London School of Economics. Her dissertation was written on corporate governance. versus the earnings they would likely receive. It was largely based on the “greater fool” theory: “I’m going to buy it today and somebody else will pay maybe more for it tomorrow.” But I expect that investors will be a little more careful this time around and take a closer look at actual businesses. Anne-Mette de Place Filippini: It’s interesting that what we called growth in one era becomes value and vice versa. Some of the great growth stocks like telecom in the late 1990s are where value managers are finding value today. We call something a growth stock when expectations of future growth are large and something of value is supposed to be cheap, but that can quickly change. As a value manager, I’m happy to own something that grows as long as I’m not paying for that growth. Rory Flynn: Part of the habit that investors got into in the last few years is they all believed they could make 20% or 30% a year. Part of the problem people have nowadays is they believe that if they get involved in equity markets, they will make 20% a year. Are these sectors fully valued? By and large we’re happy if markets are fairly valued. It should be a balance of fair rather than be concerned about getting into something that’s fully valued and then trying to find the next hot thing. We’re now back at and closer to a normal healthy environment where the typical market is at an appropriate valuation and it’s up to the professionals to work out the stocks that are going to deliver a decent return. Charles Burbeck: Mid and small-cap values have done very well for the last three or four years and the implication is that we should all switch to large-cap growth. Trying to find very large, genuine growth companies is actually quite challenging; moreover, the semantics of growth/value can be very misleading. For this reason, we tend to focus more on company specifics. Looking globally, to what extent is it true that large cap has faltered or that small cap has been pushed along by the tail winds? Has that sort of analysis applied across the globe? Rory Flynn: We would generally believe that things are in and out of fashion pretty much across the planet. What’s in fashion across the planet? The search for yield or downside protection; small caps (whether growth or not); and resources have definitely been in fashion. Some things that are out of fashion across the planet: telecoms; financials; and large caps. We certainly don’t fight fashion and are happy to invest in a good opportunity to buy something at a good valuation. Charles Burbeck: Correlations within global sectors have increased in a sense. For example, in the global auto sector there’s been more correlation between companies in the sector and their local markets. And that’s happened in a lot of areas. Even in Japan, you find that companies tend to move within their global sectors so if global tech or global small cap is doing well, tech and small cap tend to also do well in Japan. That’s really a trend that has accelerated in the last few years. Bradley Radin: Most academic studies have shown that value tends to outperform growth over the long term. So it shouldn’t be all that much of a surprise that it has happened recently. Also, studies suggest that small caps outperform large caps over the long term. And if you use $1.5 billion U.S. market cap as the cutoff between small and large caps, about 80% of companies around the world are actually small cap. Small caps should just be part of an investor’s portfolio for the long term. For the past few years, Europe has traded at multiples that have lagged the U.S. multiples. Is that still true? How has the highly regulated nature of European society affected valuations and growth opportunities? To what extent are some sectors in Europe still working through the 1990s excesses? Rory Flynn: Actually, Europe has delivered earnings growth at the same rate if not quicker than the U.S. over the last 10, 20, 30 years. And if valuations are deemed “lagging” — my word is “attractive” — I’m happy to invest there. In terms of the highly regulated nature of Continental Europe, that was true about two decades ago. Today, with EU single market, no government can treat any company — even government-owned companies — differently. Europe has changed dramatically and Europe is now a big, diverse, competitive place. The single currency has also helped change things dramatically. It’s a great environment for an investor and the valuations are more attractive than the U.S. Charles Burbeck: The valuations in Europe are lower and for good reason. The economic returns for businesses are generally lower than their U.S. counterparts because European businesses often have higher costs, are smaller scale and have less-incented management. But there is enormous opportunity. Some of the “Old Europe” challenges have also been taken care of, for example, the high labour costs. Now companies are relocating plants to places such as Eastern Europe in order to increase their profitability. This is an opportunity in the sense that it’s great for Eastern Europe but it can be used as a bargaining tool to cut costs in Western Europe. You can buy companies that are 30% to 40% cheaper than their U.S. counterparts with the scope for significant improvements in operational returns. Bradley Radin: I’ll give you an interesting example that ties together this notion of Old Europe being a highcost, difficult labour market in which to produce things. One of the stocks that I own is a company called De’Longhi, an Italian company that makes high-end small kitchen appliances. Up until about five years ago, they did all of their production in Italy but they have since transferred about 2/3 of their production to China. So that’s an example of a fairly forwardthinking European company that’s kept the heart and soul of its operations in Italy but moved the production off-shore to China in order to do it cheaper. There are improvements that European companies can make. It really comes down to what’s going on at the individual company level. Anne-Mette de Place Filippini: It looks like the European markets are more attractively valued. They also “We’re now back at and closer to a normal healthy environment where the typical market is at an appropriate valuation and it’s up to the professionals to work out the stocks that are going to deliver a decent return.” Rory Flynn 5 Rory Flynn, CFA Fund Manager and Portfolio Advisor AGF International Advisors Co. Ltd. Funds advised: AGF European Equity Class, AGF Global Financial Services Class, AGF Global Perspective Class, AGF International Stock Class, AGF U.S. Value Class, AGF World Balanced Fund Rory joined AGF in 1992. He has spent his entire investment have a better yield. The U.K. market yield, for example, is about 4% overall. We always say that Europe is too regulated but look at the auto industry. GM is an interesting example of a big U.S. manufacturer that is having an awful lot of trouble, due to a large part with issues of pension and healthcare liabilities that have nothing to do with cars. You can argue that it’s easier for a German-based company to restructure. In general, I would also say that European countries are in better shape from a fiscal and trade balance point of view. Saving rates are high in many countries and so you’re also not dealing with the risk of a highly indebted consumer rolling over — which is the problem we may have in the U.S. Now we’ll flip to the other side of the world. Asia has been different — a tale of two economies. There’s Japan — which we’ll get to later — and then there’s the boom and bust Pacific Rim, which has been highly dependent on global investment flows or “hot money” — as witness the currency crisis of 1997 and 1998. How do you find value amid this volatility? How strong are the fundamentals in Asia? 6 Sponsored By career with AGF in Dublin. Initially an investment analyst and fund advisor, he rose to head the Dublin research department. Rory has developed into a world-class fund manager winning awards as co-manager of the AGF European Equity Class. He has broadened his investment expertise into global financial services, as well as managing a globally competitive U.S. value fund. Prior to joining AGF, he was a lecturer of accounting and finance at the University of Limerick. He is a member of the Institute of Investment Management and Research and received his Diploma in Technical Analysis in 2003. Charles Burbeck: There has been a lot of change at both the macro and at the corporate level. This is a massive generalization, but companies and economies are in much better shape than they have been for some time. In terms of deficits and debt levels, and at the corporate level looking at balance sheets and income statements, a lot of hard, difficult decisions have been made in recent times and, in general, things are often better shaped than many western-developed economies such as the U.S. and parts of Europe. While in Asia ex-Japan and other emerging market regions such as Latin America, Eastern Europe, South Africa and the Middle East, there always will be turbulence and crisis. It’s something that’s the nature of these markets but there are many world-class businesses in these regions that are convincing in terms of valuation and business model relative to developed-market companies. Bradley Radin: Leaving Japan out of the picture, Asia is an interesting part of the world. I’m personally a fan of Asian stocks generally and am able to buy into good growth companies at fairly cheap prices. There are certain pockets in Asia that are overvalued and there’s a lot of hype surrounding certain countries, like China for example, that spells investment risk. But there are ways to benefit without paying a hype price through stocks in other Asian countries that “Studies suggest that small caps outperform large caps over the long term. And if you use $1.5 billion U.S. market cap as the cutoff between small and large caps, about 80% of companies around the world are actually small cap.” Bradley Radin do their production in China. They don’t have the China premium but still provide the benefits you want through Chinese investments. Anne-Mette de Place Filippini: We have put good weights in Asia. I’ll take Japan out of this picture for now as well. We’re mostly in domestic plays — companies that are not really big exporters into the U.S. consumer market but play more on consumption growth in Asian countries. Longterm, it would seem that Asia would probably outgrow most of the rest of the world but I would be careful of what you pay for that growth and how much is already in the valuation. There’s a lot of money flowing in and out of the markets very quickly and things can get incredibly overheated and can come down very quickly. Rory Flynn: China worries me because I’m concerned that the Chinese don’t necessarily believe in earnings growth. I think they’re a bit like the Japanese were a few decades ago: They want to be big and not worry about profits for a few decades. That was a recipe for disaster in Japan. And the Chinese constitution is very clear when it comes to property ownership: you don’t own anything. I’m not sure how that makes it a safe place for western investors. On the other hand, we are finding opportunities in Taiwan and have been assembling a group of stocks there. The other side of the tale is Japan. Is this recovery real? Bradley Radin: It’s been 15 years since the peak of the Japanese stock market. What we had were investors who thought that Japanese companies could do no wrong. That all came crashing down and here we are 16 years later and the Nikkei is not even half of what it was back then. It was a great year last year in the Japanese equity market, but we’re in the bearish camp. We’re generally underweight in the Japanese market and my feeling is that last year was a momentum-driven market — lots of foreign buying — and stocks are still expensive. For pretty much any Japanese company you can find a company elsewhere that does more or less the same thing and is cheaper. I also don’t think they’re as shareholder-focused as a lot of companies around the world. Anne-Mette de Place Filippini: It has become harder to find value in Japan. We saw some good value opportunities three years ago but it has gotten a lot harder. However, since corporate Japan is largely debt-free, there’s a lot of room to generate value by optimizing corporate balance sheets. Good opportunities for private equity. With some of our holdings, cash-to-market capitalization is an astounding 50% to 60%. If some of this excess cash were returned to shareholders, it would be hugely value-accretive. The Japanese yen has been such a wild card. The efforts by the Japanese government to hold that currency down have made it hard for Canadian investors to really benefit from some of those gains in the last few years. Rory Flynn: I do remember back in June of 2002 standing in front of a couple of hundred people in Canada and somebody asked me about Sony and I said, “Buy a PlayStation, don’t bother with the stock.” And if you bought a PS 2, you’re still playing with it far more than is good for you. But the stock hasn’t done much for you. If someone were to ask me about the Japanese market today, I’d say, “Wait for November, buy a PS 3 and stock your money elsewhere.” Charles Burbeck: Actually, I’m very positive on Japan. I agree that last year was a momentum situation but, since then, economic and corporate data have been positive and consistent and there are the seeds of a genuine, autonomous recovery going on in Japan. However, the valuation issue is obviously critical. There’s no doubt looking at overall macro data that Japan doesn’t scream cheap but we think that analysts are significantly underestimating the profits leverage that comes from top-line recovery feeding through to very lean cost bases. Also, “The economic returns for businesses are generally lower than their U.S. counterparts because European businesses often have higher costs, are smaller scale and have less-incented management.” Charles Burbeck 7 Bradley Radin, CFA, MBA Senior Vice President and Portfolio Manager Global Equity Management, Franklin Templeton Investment Corp. Bradley Radin joined the Templeton organization in 1995 and is a Senior Vice President in the Global Equity Management Group. He currently manages Templeton Global Smaller Companies Fund and Bissett International Equity Fund. In addition, Mr. Radin’s global research responsibilities Japan tends not to be as correlated as other equity markets like Europe, the U.S. and some of the emerging markets. Investors need to be very selective but we find ourselves overweight in Japan on a stock-by-stock basis. Do we have a kind of a goldilocks global economy right now or is that under threat? Where would the threats come from? How stable is the present situation and have the rumblings of the past three or four weeks harbinger or just a necessary correction? Anne-Mette de Place Filippini: We’ve set ourselves for more volatility going forward. We saw volatility at unusually low levels for the last few years but we may be seeing higher volatility going forward. The trade balance and fiscal deficit in the U.S. and the indebtedness of the U.S. consumer are cause for worry in terms of global growth. This would suggest that growth is going to slow down in the U.S. If this happens, growth will also slow elsewhere. We’re not predicting a disaster, but we’re going to return to more normalized levels of growth. include North American and Asian banks, as well as small cap cyclicals. Before joining Templeton, Mr. Radin worked in the Asian equity research department of Credit Suisse First Boston in Hong Kong. Globally, he has also worked in Taipei and Moscow. Mr. Radin graduated from the University of Western Ontario with an Honours Bachelor of Business Administration degree, Bachelor of Science degree in biophysics and Master of Business Administration degree with a concentration in finance. He holds a CFA designation and is a member of the Toronto Society of Financial Analysts. Rory Flynn: What we’ve actually seen is maybe a bit of overconsumption in the U.S. Overconsumption has to stop at some stage and we believe that it will happen in a pretty civilized fashion. Another big thing that worries us is oil. Oil, at whatever price it is in the last few days, is too high. We’ll see oil at the end of the year at about half current levels — $35 or $40 a barrel. That will mean a big adjustment for certain categories of stocks. The other thing that is different about the current environment is that inflation is back. So it’s no longer the goldilocks economy. And while there are pressures out there that you must watch, it’s still a pretty healthy environment. with it. I’m more concerned about growth than I am about inflation. In the very long term, growth rates may be less than they have been in the last three or four years. Charles Burbeck: The baton is being passed from the U.S. consumer to other parts of the world — notably parts of Europe, Japan and China. The problem is that this doesn’t always happen in a smooth way. As for inflation, I’m concerned in the short term. In the long term, I’m still very positive in terms of the secular factors of globalization and also the fact that many independent banks around the world are well qualified to observe and deal This special Global Investment Roundtable supplement is available online at advisor.ca Sponsored By 8 Bradley Radin: We don’t really spend a lot of time on macro-economic issues. But as a personal view, the U.S. fiscal deficit worries me as does global housing prices. I would also be worried if my Canadian investment portfolio was too heavy in energy stocks. In terms of slowing growth globally, if that does happen, you would want to be in lower priced, lower expectation, value stocks — that’s where you want to hide if the world does slow down. ● This supplement is published by Rogers Publishing Healthcare and Financial Services Group, One Mount Pleasant Road, Toronto, Ontario M4Y 2Y5. Telephone: (416) 764-2000, Fax: (416) 764-2878. No part of this publication may be reproduced, in whole or in part, without the written permission of the publisher. Copyright © 2006.
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