Disappearance of political “middle” – bipartisanship has plummeted over the past 20 years
1
Source: National Journal Vote Rankings, 2013
Confidential
Fewer Competitive Seats In the House lead to more extreme Members on right and left
The House’s Incredible Shrinking Swing Seat
Number of House seats by Partisan Voting Index of district
Democratic (D+5 or Greater)
Swing (D+5 to R+5)
Republican (R+5 or Greater)
200
190
180
179
175
164
160
182
180
186
182
162
159
149
148
148
150
147
150
146
139
140
134
120
123
111
108
108
103
103
100
99
90
80
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
According to the Cook Partisan Vote Index, the number of swing districts in the
House fell from 164 in 1998 to 90 in 2014 – a 40% reduction.
2
Source: Cook Political Report,2015
Confidential
2018 Senate: GOP Poised for Continued Control
Democrat seats up: 25
Republican seats up: 8
Other
Potentially
Competitive Races:
DEMS:
OH
WI
NM
ME
VA
PA
FL
MI
MN
WA
MT
V
TME
NH
MA
ND
OR
MN
ID
SD
NY
WI
WY
NV
MI
UT
CO
CA
AZ
PA
IA
NE
IL
KS
MO
OK
NM
TX
WV
3
Source: Sabatos Crystal Ball, "2016 Senate Ratings," University of Virginia: Center for Politics,
1/7/16
RI
NC
TN
AR
SC
AL
GA
LA
FL
HI
GOP:
NV
AZ
VA
KY
MS
AK
IN
OH
CT
NJ
DE
MD
■ Democrat Seat Up for Re-election
■ Republican Seat Up for Re-election
Dashed line = Other Potentially Competitive Races
= Democrat seats up in 2018 in states Sec. Clinton lost in 2016
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Our current complex and active regulatory state
Financial Stability Oversight Council
Treasury/FinCEN
Labor
Department
Treasury/Office
of Financial
Research
SEC
CFTC
FINRA
CONSUMER
LENDING
COMMERCIAL
LENDING
ALTERNATIVE
PRODUCTS
Office of the
Comptroller of
the Currency
FDIC
State regulators &
Attorneys General
Federal Reserve
National
Futures
Association
BROKER DEALERS
INVESTMENT
ADVISERS
For illustrative purposes only.
4
Bureau of Consumer
Financial Protection
Confidential
RETAIL
BANKING
INVESTMENT
BANKING
PAYMENT &
CLEARING
Is Tax Reform Possible?
Top Tax Expenditures For Individuals, 2013-2017
$1,200
$1,000
Billions
$800
$600
$400
$200
$0
Exclusion of employer
health care
contributions
5
Exclusion for
retirement
contributions
(DC/D B/IRA)
Source: Office of Management and Budget,, Fiscal Year 2013 Tax Expenditures
Home mortgage
interest deduction
Confidential
Deductibility of State
and Local Taxes
Reduced capital gains
and div idend taxes
Deductibility of
Charitable Giving
Investors continue to highly value retirement tax incentives
Importance of Tax Benefits
Retirement savings
Employer-provided
health insurance
State & local taxes
Residential mortgages
77% Age 30-39
Charitable giving
% who indicate
Important benefit
Municipal bonds
Annuities
Base: Retail Customers
Source: FBC Retail Customer survey
6
2 benefits they most want to protect
17% Age < 40
37% Age 55+
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Federal Spending in Fiscal Year 2016: $3.919 Trillion
(2015: $3.66 Trillion)
Unemployment, Welfare,
SSI for Disabled, SNAP,
Federal Pensions, Veterans
$721B – 17%
Net Interest
$255B – 6%
Defense
$589B – 14%
Non-Defense
$609B – 15%
Discretionary
Mandatory
Medicaid
$381B – 9%
Social Security $910B –
22%
Medicare
$692B – 17%
Mandatory: 65%
7
Offsetting Receipts -$237B
Discretionary: 29%
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Interest: 6%
Prepared by the Office of Congressman Jeff Fortenberry, 06/2016
Total Revenues and Outlays, As a percent of GDP
Actual Projected
8
Source: Congressional Budget Office, The 2013 Long-Term Budget Outlook,
Confidential
Summary Figure 1, Figure 1-3
Deficits are estimated to shrink, but only for a few years
Actual Projected
9
Source: Congressional Budget Office, Budget and Economic Outlook FY 2013-2023, Figure 1-1
Confidential
Rapidly Increasing Federal Debt – Has doubled in the past 8 years
Source: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GFDEBTN
10
Confidential