API-304: BEHAVIORAL ECONOMICS AND PUBLIC POLICY LECTURE 20 BEHAVIORALLY INFORMED REGULATION November 21, 2016 Announcements 2 Announcements 3 ¨ Course assignments: ¤ Over the course of the semester n 10 assignments n Drop 2 lowest scores n Graded ✔, ✔+, ✔- (modal grade is a check) n Schedule on p. 5 of syllabus ¤ Today n Assignments 1-6 graded, available on Canvas n Concept note graded n Mid-term graded, will be released later today n Assignments 7-8 being graded n Assignment 9 due today n Assignment 10 distributed today, due Monday 11/28 The Interaction between Individual Behavioral Biases and Firm Motives BEHAVIORAL FALLABILITY MARKET NEUTRAL AND/OR MARKET EXPLOITS WANTS TO OVERCOME CONSUMER FALLABILITY CONSUMER FALLABILITY Consumers misunderstand compounding Savings context: • Banks would like to help reduce this bias Borrowing context: • Banks would like to exploit this bias Consumers procrastinate Claiming the EITC: • Tax preparation companies would like to reduce this bias Claiming rebates: • Retailers would like to exploit this bias Barr, Mullainathan and Shafir (2013), “The Case for Behaviorally Informed Regulation” Discount vs. Surcharge: Does it Matter? Expressions Hair Design v. Schneiderman Quick and Dirty Survey Experiment Cash Discount Credit Card Surcharge Imagine that you have a credit card and $220 in cash in your wallet/purse. You buy food at a convenient store. Imagine that you have a credit card and $220 in cash in your wallet/purse. You buy food at a convenient store. The salesperson says it costs $133.90 if you pay with credit card (regular price). If you pay with cash, there would be a discount (reduction in price) of around 3%. If you pay with cash, the total cost would be $130.00. The salesperson says it costs $130 if you pay with cash (regular price). If you pay by credit card, there would be a surcharge (an additional fee) of around 3%. If you pay with a credit card, the total cost would be $133.90. Would you pay by credit card or pay with the $220 in your wallet/purse? Would you pay by credit card or pay with the $220 in your wallet/purse? Survey Experiment Results 100% 80% 60% 82% 89% Pay Cash (Cost $130.00) Pay Credit (Cost $133.90) 40% 20% 18% 0% Cash discount 11% Credit card surcharge Behaviorally Informed Regulation: Suggestions for Mortgage Markets ¨ Full information disclosure—in addition to disclosing interest rates, lenders must also reveal: ¤ Credit scores ¤ Qualification for other (potentially better for the consumer) loan products ¤ Rate sheets so consumers know all the options Potential benefits? ¨ Potential costs? (unintended consequences) ¨ Behaviorally Informed Regulation: Suggestions for Mortgage Markets ¨ “Sticky” plain vanilla “default” mortgage ¤ Default: 30-year fixed rate mortgage ¤ Consumers can opt-out to different mortgage Potential benefits? ¨ Potential costs? (unintended consequences) ¨ Behaviorally Informed Regulation: Suggestions for Mortgage Markets ¨ Ban yield spread premium payments to mortgage brokers ¤ Potential benefits? ¤ Potential costs? (unintended consequences) Behaviorally Informed Regulation: Suggestions for Mortgage Markets ¨ Hold mortgage brokers/lenders to a fiduciary standard (they must act in the best interest of the borrower) ¤ Potential benefits? ¤ Potential costs? (unintended consequences) ¨ Note—parallel discussion going on right now w.r.t. retirement savings investment advisors Behaviorally Informed Regulation: Suggestions for Mortgage Markets ¨ Ex post determination of reasonableness of mortgage disclosures ¤ Courts or expert agencies determine, ex post, whether disclosures effectively communicate key terms to a typical borrower n Is it accurate? n Is it clear? Or confusing? Potential benefits? ¨ Potential costs? (unintended consequences) ¨ Behaviorally Informed Regulation: Suggestions for Credit Card Markets ¨ “Sticky” plain vanilla credit card ¤ Regulators “bless” a plain vanilla “safe” credit card ¤ Consumers can opt out to a different credit card n With sufficient disclosure n Alternative cards would expose banks to greater potential liability “Potential benefits? ¨ Potential costs? (unintended consequences) ¨ Behaviorally Informed Regulation: Suggestions for Credit Card Markets ¨ Credit card “opt-out” payment plan ¤ Default payment plan is short term ¤ Consumers can opt-out to either shorter or longer payment term “Potential benefits? ¨ Potential costs? (unintended consequences) ¨ Payday Loan Outcomes and the Default Payment Structure Behaviorally Informed Regulation: Suggestions for Credit Card Markets ¨ Better credit card disclosures ¤ How long it would take to pay making minimum monthly payment ¤ How much interest would be paid if making only minimum monthly payment ¤ Monthly payment that would be required to pay off balance over “reasonable” time frame “Potential benefits? ¨ Potential costs? (unintended consequences) ¨ Behaviorally Informed Regulation: Suggestions for Credit Card Markets ¨ Regulate late and over limit fees ¤ Allow firms to charge late and over limit fees in order to deter “bad behavior” ¤ Firms retain fixed percent of such fees ¤ Remainder goes into public trust to fund financial education and assistance for troubled borrowers “Potential benefits? ¨ Potential costs? (unintended consequences) ¨ The Credit Card Accountability Responsibility and Disclosure Act of 2009: Timeline 20 Card Act signed into law on May 22, 2009 August 2009 February 2010 August 2010 • 45-day advance notice to consumers of changes to card terms • Inform consumers of right to cancel • Bills must be mailed 21+ days before due • Opt-in for over limit fees • Over limit fee can only be charged once per bill • Bills must include 36month payoff amount • Bills must include payoff time if only minimum paid • Fees must be reasonable and proportions • Late fee capped at $25 unless customer has late payment in last 6 months • Late can’t exceed minimum payment • Over limit fees capped at over limit amount • Can’t charge more than one penalty fee per violation • Can’t charge inactivity fee Bank fee Whac-a-Mole: New charges hit accounts CNNMoney.com, September 24, 2010 In August, the Card Act banned a variety of fees -- including certain overdraft and excessive late charges. But one month later, banks are increasing existing fees and finding creative new ways to charge customers more for credit cards, so-called "free" checking accounts and banking services. Already this year cash-advance fees and balance transfer fees have risen to 4%, up from 3% in July last year…"It's like you've got a sinking boat, where you plug one hole and another one springs up," said Curtis Arnold, founder of CreditRatings.com. "You can shut down one egregious fee, but that doesn't mean other fees aren't just going to start popping up elsewhere." Impact of the CARD Act 22 ¨ ¨ ¨ Agarwal, Chomsisngphet, Mahoney and Stroebel (2014) Empirical Approach: compare consumer (affected) vs. small business cards (unaffected) before vs. after reform Findings ¤ Lower borrowing costs through reduced fees Late fees n Total fees n Biggest effects for low FICO consumers who pay these fees n No offsetting increase in interest charges ¤ No offsetting reduction in credit volume ¤ Small effect of new disclosure requirements ¤ Behaviorally Informed Regulation: Suggestions for LMI Savings ¨ Tax credit to firms offering safe and affordable transaction accounts to LMI customers ¤ Debit-card based ¤ No check-writing (è no bounced checks) ¤ No overdraft charges “Potential benefits? ¨ Potential costs? (unintended consequences) ¨ Behaviorally Informed Regulation: Suggestions for LMI Savings ¨ Opt-out bank account for tax refunds ¤ Tax refund deposited into default account by IRS ¤ Refund process more quickly so consumers get $$$ more quickly “Potential benefits? ¨ Potential costs? (unintended consequences) ¨ One Way of Thinking About Where on to Locate on the Continuum of Regulatory Responses Readings for Monday, November 28 ¨ Behaviorally Informed Disclosure ¤ George Loewenstein, Cass R. Sunstein and Russell Golman (2014). “Disclosure: Psychology Changes Everything.” Annual Review of Economics 6: 391-419. ¤ Marianne Bertrand and Adair Morse (2011). “Information Disclosure, Cognitive Biases, and Payday Borrowing.” Journal of Finance, 66(6): 1865-1893. ¤ Mark Bernstein and Myles Collins (2014). “Saving Energy through Better Information: A New Energy Paradigm?” Contemporary Economic Policy 32(1): 219-229.
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