Bird Conservation International (2011) 21:241-259. © BirdLife International, 2011 doi:10.1017/S0959270911000086 Impacts of tidal land reclamation in Bohai Bay, China: ongoing losses of critical Yellow Sea w aterbird staging and w intering sites H O N G - Y A N Y A N G , B IN G C H E N , M A R K B A R T E R , T H E U N I S P I E R S M A , C H U N -F A Z H O U , F E N G -S H A N LI and Z H E N G -W A N G Z H A N G Summary T he coast o f B ohai Bay, n o rth -w e s te rn Y ellow Sea, is critical for w a terb ird s m ig ra tin g along th e East A sia -A u stra la sia n Flyw ay. B etw een 1994 a n d 2010, a to ta l o f 450 k m ’ of offsh o re area, inclu d in g 218 k m ’ of in te rtid a l flats (one th ird of th e original tidal area in th e bay), has b e en reclaim ed alo n g the b a y for tw o in d u stria l projects. T his has caused th e n o rth w a rd m ig ra n ts to becom e c o n cen trated in a n e v er sm aller re m a in in g area, o u r core stu d y site. T he sp rin g peak n u m b e rs of tw o R ed K n o t subspecies in th e East A sia -A u stra la sia n Flyw ay, Calidris c a n u tu s p iersm a i a n d C. c. rogersi, in th is so far little affected area increased fro m 1 3 % in 2007 to 6 2 % in 2010 o f the global populations; th e sp rin g peak n u m b e rs o f C u rlew S an d p ip er C. ferru g in ea increased from 3 % in 2007 to 2 3% in 2010 o f the fly w ay p o p u latio n . T he decline in the e x te n t o f in te rtid a l m u d flats also affected Relict G ulls Larus relictus, listed b y IU C N as 'V u ln e ra b le '; d u rin g n o rm al w in te rs 5 6 % of the global p o p u latio n m o v ed fro m the w in te rin g h a b ita ts th a t w ere re m o v e d in T ia n jin to the re la tiv e ly in ta c t areas a ro u n d T an g sh an . D ensities of w in te rin g E u rasian C urlew N u m e n iu s arquata, a n d sp rin g -sta g in g B road-billed S an d p ip er Lim icola fa lc in ellu s a n d S an d erlin g Calidris alba have also increased in th e re m a in in g areas. W ith the p roposed c o n tin u a tio n of lan d reclam atio n in B ohai Bay, w e predict w a terb ird d ensities in th e re m a in in g areas to increase to a p o in t o f collapse. To ev aluate the fu tu re o f these fragile, sh ared in te rn a tio n a l resources, it is vital to p ro m o te an im m ed iate c o n serv atio n action plan fo r th e re m a in in g coastal w etlan d s in this reg io n , a n d c o n tin u e d p o p u latio n m o n ito rin g to d e te rm in e the effects of th is action. Introduction C oastal areas provide im p o rta n t h a b ita ts for m a n y w a te rb ird species, especially shorebirds, w ildfow l, gulls a n d te rn s (van de K am et al. 2004, 2008, W etlan d s In te rn a tio n a l 2006, B am ford et al. 2008). D espite th e ir im p o rtan ce as p ro v id ers of m arin e food reso u rces a n d livelihoods for fishing c o m m u n itie s, in te rtid a l areas for c en tu ries h ave b e en c o n v erted in to lan d for ag ric u ltu ra l a n d resid en tial use, p o rt c o n stru ctio n a n d in d u stria l estates (D alby 1957, G lue 1971, D avidson et al. 1991, S uchaneck 1994, BirdLife In te rn a tio n a l 2004). W h e re a s reclam atio n activities have n o w ceased in n o rth -w e s t E urope (P iersm a 2009), the co n v ersio n o f in te rtid a l flats in to fish- o r salt ponds, a g ric u ltu ra l, recreational, o r in d u stria l lan d has accelerated in e a ste rn A sia, especially in the Y ellow Sea region, in o rd e r to accom m odate the p re ssu re o f in creasin g h u m a n p o p u latio n s a n d econom ic g ro w th (B arter 2002, M o o res 2006, v a n de K am et al. 2008, S O A PR C 2009, W a n et al. 2009). T he p o p u latio n s o f m ig ra tin g w a terb ird s th a t depend o n coastal w etlan d s have declined in parallel w ith the losses of in te rtid a l areas, in ex tre m e cases leading to th re a te n e d o r n e a rly ex tin ct p o p u latio n s (S yroechkovskiy 2004, C ro sb y a n d C h a n 2006, W etlan d s In te rn a tio n a l 2006, M o o res et al. 2008, v a n de K am et al. 2008, A m a n o et al. 2010, Z öckler et al. 2010). In v iew H - Y . Y a n g e t al. 242 of the rapid decrease of in te rtid a l h ab itats, th e safeg u ard in g o f th e re m a in in g in te rtid a l flats from fu rth e r losses and deg rad atio n s m u st becom e a global p rio rity . H ere w e present the case of Bohai Bay in the n o rth -w est Yellow Sea, C hina, strategically located in the m iddle of the East A sian-A ustralasian Flyw ay (hereafter EAAF). T he coast of Bohai Bay is crucial to w aterbirds, especially shorebirds and gulls th at m ake stopovers there d u rin g n o rth w a rd and southw ard m igration, o r w in ter there, including Relict G uii Larus relictus, listed as 'V u ln erab le' b y IU C N (2010) and BirdLife In ternational (2010a), S aunders's G uii L. saundersi, E urasian C urlew N u m e n iu s arquata, Red K not Calidris canutus, C urlew Sandpiper C. ferruginea and M a rsh Sandpiper Tringa stagnatilis (Li et al. 1996, B arter 2002, B attley et al. 2005, M in to n et al. 2006, Y ang and Z h an g 2006, Liu et al. 2007, Y ang et al. 2008). T he m ajo rity of Red K not du rin g n o rth w a rd m igration, and the largest w in terin g populations o f E urasian C urlew and Relict Guii, w ere counted in Bohai Bay along the EAAF (Barter et al. 2001, 2003, Liu et al. 2006, Cao et al. 2009). C oncerns about the accelerating tidal flat reclam ation along the Bohai Bay coast, and the potential effects o n w aterbirds dependent on the bay, have been voiced earlier (Barter et al. 2003, Liu et al. 2006, Y ang et al. 2008). N o evidence o n the im pacts of the land reclam ation in recent decade has so far b een provided. Bohai Bay sits next to a densely hum an -p o p u lated and rapidly developing region. Tw o industrial developm ents have been u n d e r construction o n the w estern and n o rth e rn coasts of Bohai B ay since 1994 (Table 1): T ianjin B inhai N ew A rea, located in the m unicipality of T ianjin, w estern Bohai Bay, and Caofeidian N ew A rea, in the d t y of T angshan, H ebei Province, n o rth e rn Bohai Bay, started in 1994 and 2002, respectively (Fig. 1). In the past decade, the developm ents have tu rn e d large areas of sea into industrial land and the rate of land reclam ation has accelerated (this study). In future, the planned developm ent will lead to a c ontinuing reduction of b o th land and shallow sea habitats (Table 1). Loss o f w a terb ird h a b ita ts can lead to a decline in w a terb ird n u m b e rs (e.g. M o o res et al. 2008, K raan et al. 2009, C a try et al. in press), o r to th e m o v e m e n t o f b ird s to n e a rb y suitable h a b ita ts (B u rto n et al. 2006); th e la tte r can lead to increased d ensities o n o th e r sites and c o n seq u en t increase in m o rta lity of th e displaced birds, th u s leading to a n overall loss o f birds (G o ss-C u stard 1980). T he reclam a tio n o f th e tw o m ajo r in d u stria l d e v elo p m en ts has changed, and w ill fu rth e r change, w a te rb ird h a b ita ts alo n g th e B ohai B ay coast. T he aim of this stu d y w as to d e te rm in e if w a terb ird s h ave declined already, o r h ave becom e c o n cen trated in the re m a in in g suitable areas. W e conducted su rv e y s of m ig ra to ry a n d w in te rin g w a terb ird s alo n g the coasts of T ia n jin a n d T an g sh a n d u rin g 2 0 0 6 -2 0 1 0 , a n d w ere fo rtu n a te to have c o n cen trated m o st su rv e y efforts in a n area re la tiv e ly little im pacted so far. W e in te rp re t these c o u n ts in th e lig h t of the h istorical e x te n t o f lan d reclam ation, re co n stru c te d o n th e basis o f satellite ph o to g rap h s. Methods S t u d y area a n d s t u d y sites T he stu d y area focused o n th e coasts of T ia n jin (3 8 °4 5 '-3 9 °i2 'N , 117°34-57'E ) a n d T an g sh an ( 3 9 ° o i- io 'N , i i 8 °0 7 -2 i 'E). T h e area has a typical tem p erate clim ate w ith cold, d ry w in te rs and Table 1. Details of the industrial reclamation projects in Bohai Bay.3 Project Reclamation Location period Total Planned intertidal Total planned Main industries planned area reclamation offshore area area b(km2) (km3) 3 reclamation (km2) Tianjin 1994-2020 Binhai New Area NW 2,270 Bohai Bay 205 266 Caofeidian 2002-2020 New Area N 1,943 Bohai Bay 142 130 3Data sources: SOAPRC (2009) lTncludes total land and offshore areas cThis study. ports, logistics, heavy equipment manufacturing, petrochemical ports, steel, chemical, energy Im p a c ts o f B o h a i B a y lanci r e c la m a tio n o n w a te rb ird s 243 Beijing an< Tianjin - Y ellow CK! Nanpu Zuidong Ï Dagukou v Lujuhe f Haibinyuchang £ Tianjin Binhai New Area £ Legend "^■^Ikjliujian estuary' B o u n d ary Bohai S u rv ey r o u te Bay River a n d c h a n n el 0 1 I 10 I I 20 I J L i 40 Km I I- I S altp an s Figure 1. L ocation o f stu d y sites and reclaim ed areas o f the T ia n jin B inhai a n d C aofeidian N e w A re a in d u stria l reclam a tio n projects in B ohai Bay b y 2010. ho t, h u m id su m m ers. T he average te m p e ra tu re in Ja n u a ry is -4°C and in July 26°C (H PD LR 2007). T he in te rtid a l area re m a in s frozen fro m D ecem ber for th ree m o n th s. T he m ain ha b ita ts are tidal m udflats, saltpans a n d sh rim p ponds; a sea w all separates th e saltpans a n d sh rim p pon d s fro m th e m udflats. T ides have a n average ra n g e o f 2.5 m (H PD LR 2007). T he in te rtid a l flats outside th e d ykes are 1 -3 k m w ide a t low tide (see Fig. 2) a n d co m p letely su b m erg ed fro m ab o u t 2 h rs b efore tim e o f h ig h tide. T here are salt w orks, w harfs, oil fields a n d in d u stria l areas alo n g th e coast. Local people collect shellfish a n d catch fish o n th e m u d fla ts fro m sp rin g to a u tu m n . W e w o rk ed at seven stu d y sites in T ianjin: D u liu jia n e stu a ry , H a ib in y u c h an g , L ujuhe, D agukou, C h e n g to u g u , H a iy a n a n d D a sh e n tan g , a n d fo u r in T angshan: H eiy an zi, B eipu, N a n p u a n d Z u id o n g (Fig. 1). T he sites in T an g sh an w ere situ ate d b e tw ee n T ia n jin B inhai N e w A re a and C aofeidian N e w A rea, b u t closer to th e latter. H ow ever, d u rin g th e stu d y period, m o st stu d y sites in T ia n jin w ere lost g ra d u ally to lan d reclam atio n b y th e T ia n jin B inhai N e w A rea. T he o rd e r in w h ic h th e m u d flats w ere enclosed b y sea w alls was: fro m east o f H a iy a n to D a sh e n tan g in O cto b er 2007, fro m L u ju h e to D ag u k o u in D ecem ber 2007, fro m east o f H a ib in y u c h a n g to L u ju h e and C h e n g to u g u in S e p tem b e r 2008. In T an g sh an , the core stu d y sites B eipu, N a n p u a n d Z u id o n g w ere o n ly a little affected b y lan d reclam a tio n u n til late 2009, w ith p a rtial lan d loss in Z u id o n g in 2010. R e m o t e s e n s in g d a ta collection a n d p roce ssin g To d o c u m e n t the e x te n t o f loss o f sea areas, especially o f th e in te rtid a l zone, w e a cquired a set of L andsat M S S /T M /E T M + im ages w h ich covered a p erio d o f 36 years: 1974, 1984, 1993, 2000, 20 0 2 -2 0 1 0 . L and cover in the stu d y area w as classified in to land, in te rtid a l area a n d w a ter, u sin g visual in te rp re ta tio n a n d d ig italizatio n w ith technical su p p o rt fro m A rcM ap 9.3 (ESRI Inc. 2008). W e e stim a te d th e total area of tidal flats at low tide in sp rin g alo n g th e T ia n jin a n d T an g sh an coasts in each year, m ea su re d the tidal flats a t each stu d y site a n d the total offsh o re area, H - Y . Y a n g e t al. T ia n jin 244 1 Tangshan B ohai F igure 2. C hanges in reclaim ed offsh o re areas in th e T ia n jin B inhai a n d C aofeidian N e w A reas o ver years. T he lined areas are in te rtid a l flats, the area in th e circle is the core stu d y area in T an g sh an (Beipu, N a n p u a n d Z uid o n g ), th e d a rk g re y areas p re se n t th e cum u lativ e e x te n t of p re v io u sly reclaim ed areas a n d th e black areas sh o w th e n e w reclaim ed areas b e tw ee n years, in clu d in g n e w land, sea w alls a n d m u d flats o r shallow w a te r w ith in closed sea w alls. (The data set is p rovided b y In te rn a tio n a l Scientific D ata Service P latfo rm , C o m p u te r N e tw o rk In fo rm atio n C enter, C hinese A cadem y o f Sciences, (h ttp ://d a ta m irro r.c s d b .c n )) in clu d in g tidal flats a n d shallow w ater, to be reclaim ed according to p roject plans, and calculated the changes in lan d -u se w ith in in d u stria l dev elo p m en ts b e tw ee n y ears u sin g A rcM ap 9.3. S u r v e y m ethods S urveys w ere conducted along the seawall at each stu d y site. S u rv e y len g th s w ere: D u liujian e s tu a ry 1.5 km , H a ib in y u ch an g to L u ju h e -3 km , L ujuhe to D ag u k o u -6 .5 km , C h e n g to u g u -2 .5 km , H a iy an to D a sh e n ta n g -6 km , H e iy an z i-2 km , B e ip u -4 km , N a n p u -1 0 km , and Z u id o n g -6 km . From S e p tem b e r 2006 to D ecem ber 2008, w e carried o u t su rv e y s d u rin g th ree periods each year: o n e su rv e y in S ep tem b er, th ree (2007) o r six (2008) su rv e y s in M ay , a n d m o n th ly su rv ey s fro m D ecem ber to F eb ru ary . In 2009, su rv e y s w ere conducted m o n th ly in T an g sh a n except in Im p a c ts o f B o h a i B a y lanci r e c la m a tio n o n w a te rb ird s 245 M ay , w h e n e ig h t su rv e y s w ere carried ou t. In T an g sh an in 2010, o n e su rv e y w as conducted in Ja n u a ry , one in F e b ru a ry a n d seven su rv e y s d u rin g M ay . W aterb ird s o n th e in te rtid a l m udflats w ere co u n ted u sin g telescopes (25-60X) a n d /o r b in o cu lars (10x40) d u rin g th e o u tg o in g tide. W e recorded air te m p e ra tu re s d u rin g su rv e y periods, as te m p e ra tu re can affect th e d istrib u tio n of w in te rin g w a terb ird s (Liu et al. 2006). C o m b in atio n s o f sites (e.g. H a ib in y u c h an g to D agukou, H a ib in y u c h a n g to L ujuhe, H a iy a n to D ash en tan g ) w ere each u su a lly su rv e y ed w ith in one day, w ith ad ditional sites re q u irin g e x tra c o u n tin g days. S tu d y site su rv e y s w ere ad ju sted w h e n n ecessary to account fo r h a b ita t loss, b u t also occasionally d u e to bad w e a th e r o r access p roblem s caused b y bad ro a d conditions. I n t e r n a t i o n a l l y i m p o r t a n t species In te rn a tio n a lly im p o rta n t species are defined as those w h ic h w e re p re se n t in n u m b e rs > 1 % of th e ir flyw ay p o p u latio n s at least once d u rin g the stu d y p eriod according to th e C o n v e n tio n o n W etlan d s (R am sar, Iran , 1971); sh o re b ird fly w ay p o p u latio n s follow B am ford et al. (2008) except for Red K not a n d E urasian C u rlew fly w ay p o p u latio n sizes w h e re w e u se d th e u p d a te b y R ogers et al. (2010) a n d Cao et al. (2009) respectively. For o th e r w a terb ird species w e follow ed W etlan d s In te rn a tio n a l (2006), IU C N (2010) a n d BirdLife In te rn a tio n a l (2011). D a ta collection a n d a n a ly s is In o rd e r to com pare a n n u a l n u m b e rs b etw ee n re g io n s a n d a n n u a l changes in a bundance w ith in the regions, w e org an ised th e d ata as follows: (1) S u rv e y s w ere c arried o u t d u rin g M ay , the peak p eriod o f n o rth w a rd m ig ra tio n in the stu d y area, fro m 2007 to 2010. M e a n w a terb ird densities w ere calculated to show p o p u latio n tren d s o f w a terb ird s d u rin g n o rth w a rd m ig ra tio n in d iffere n t areas. (2) M o n th ly su rv e y s w ere conducted in e v ery w in te r m o n th fro m 2 0 06/2007 to 2009/2010. T ren d s in w in te rin g w a te rb ird p o p u latio n s w ere d e te rm in e d b y co m p arin g th e m ea n s of w a terb ird d ensities co u n te d in D ecem ber, Ja n u a ry a n d F e b ru a ry b e tw ee n years. (3) To assess changes in sh o re b ird p o p u latio n s in the stu d y area b efore a n d a fte r tidal land reclam ation, w e u se d th e data fro m Z u id o n g . T h is w as th e o n ly site w ith in th e core stu d y area in T an g sh a n th a t h a d a series o f com parable m o n th ly su rv e y s conducted since 2004, w h e n lan d reclam atio n activities h a d n o t y e t started. (4) To v e rify w h e th e r th is increase in w a terb ird s at th e core stu d y sites is indeed m a in ly due to h a b ita t loss elsew here in B ohai Bay, w e u se d all in fo rm a tio n o n k n o w n n u m b e rs of R ed K n o t a n d C u rlew S andpiper, th e tw o m o st c o m m o n m ig ra n t shorebirds, in co m b in a tio n w ith th e k n o w n lan d reclam ation. A ssu m in g th e stag in g p o p u latio n s in n o r th e rn B ohai B ay to h ave re m a in e d stable, w e predicted th e y e a rly peak n u m b e rs b ased o n th e su m of the peak n u m b e rs co u n ted in the core stu d y area d u rin g the p re v io u s y e a r p lu s th e k n o w n n u m b e r of b ird s th a t occurred in the reclaim ed in te rtid a l flats elsew here in T ia n jin a n d T an g sh an along w e ste rn a n d n o rth e rn B ohai B ay in th a t y e a r (B arter et al. 2001, 2003). T h e observed peak n u m b e rs o f R ed K not a n d C urlew S an d p ip er in 2004 a n d 2006 w ere calculated o n th e a ssu m p tio n th a t peak n u m b e rs co u n te d o n ly a t Z u id o n g re p re se n te d a th ird of th e stag in g p o p u latio n in th e e n tire core stu d y area (of w h ich Z u id o n g is a p p ro x im ate ly one th ird ). W e also assu m e d th a t 2004 follow ed o n 2 0 0 0 -2 0 0 2 a n d th a t 2006 follow ed o n 2004. Results T h e re cen t h is to r y o f loss o f in te rtid a l la n d A ccording to analysis o f th e re m o te sensing im ages fro m 1974 to 1993, a total o f 313 k m ’ of in te rtid a l area w as reclaim ed m a in ly for salt w o rk s in T ia n jin a n d T an g sh an alo n g w e ste rn H - Y . Y a n g e t al. 246 a n d n o r th e rn B ohai Bay. In the follow ing 16 y ears (1994-2010), a p p ro x im ate ly 450 k m ’ of offsh o re area, inclu d in g 218 k m ’ of in te rtid a l m u d flats (34% o f th e total in te rtid a l area in 1993 in w e ste rn a n d n o rth e r n B ohai Bay) w as reclaim ed fo r th e T ian jin B inhai a n d C aofeidian N e w A reas (Figs. 2 a n d 3). N o ta b ly , reclam atio n accelerated d u rin g th e p ast five y ears (2005-2010) w ith a rem o v al o f 78 % of the total reclaim ed tidal area fo r th e tw o dev elo p m en ts (Figs. 2, 3 a n d 4). T he T ia n jin B inhai a n d C aofeidian N e w A reas h a d reclaim ed a total o f 110 k m ’ a n d 108 k m ’ in te rtid a l lands, respectively, b y 2010. A b u n d a n c e o f w a te rb ird s in Tia n jin a n d T a n g s h a n A total o f 58 w a terb ird species w ere recorded in th e stu d y areas o f T ia n jin a n d T an g sh an d u rin g the stu d y (Fig. 1, T able 2). S ix tee n o f th e m occurred in in te rn a tio n a lly im p o rta n t c o n ce n tra tio n s in the stu d y region: 14 species d u rin g n o rth w a rd m ig ra tio n a n d fo u r species d u rin g so u th w a rd m ig ra tio n a n d w in te r. D u rin g th e su rv e y periods, sh o reb ird s a n d gulls com prised m o st o f the w a terb ird s o c cu rrin g in th e in te rtid a l area. S h o re b ird s clearly fo rm ed the g re at m ajo rity , acco u n tin g for 9 9 % o f all w a terb ird s in M ay , 7 5 % in w in te r a n d 6 6 % in Septem ber. S p r i n g c o u n ts (2007-2010) A t th e b e g in n in g of the su rv e y p eriod in 2006/2007, th e sp rin g d e n sity o f w a terb ird s o n m udflats in T an g sh an w as h ig h e r th a n th a t in T ian jin (Table 3). W ith th e o n g o in g losses o f in te rtid a l h a b ita ts in w e ste rn a n d n o rth e rn B ohai Bay, d ensities o f w a terb ird s increased dram atically d u rin g the su b seq u e n t springs, w hile densities in th e ra p id ly disap p earin g stu d y area in T ia n jin declined fro m 2007 to 2008 (Table 3). Red K not, C u rlew S andpiper, B road-billed S an d p ip er Lim icola fa lc in ellu s a n d S a n d e rlin g C alidris alba increased ra p id ly a t th e stu d y sites in T an g sh an o v e r the y ears, as the loss o f in te rtid a l m u d flats in B ohai B ay continued. 1000 900 800 700 t i co 600 — S -c 500 c o — CD 400 - z 300 cu E J2 °2J '5 5 < c tí óT ' S E c a. - 200 100 0 220 200 180 ■ 160 ■ 140 120 100 80 804020- • Caofeidian New Area ♦ Tianjin Binhai New Area 1970 1975 1 9 8 0 1 9 8 5 1 9 9 0 1995 2 0 0 0 2005 2010 2015 2020 Year F igure 3. C hanges in th e available in te rtid a l area in T ian jin a n d T an g sh an alo n g w e ste rn and n o rth e rn B ohai B ay fro m 1974 to 2015 (above) a n d changes in the reclaim ed in te rtid a l area due to the T ia n jin B inhai a n d C aofeidian N e w A reas respectively fro m 1994 to 2015 (below). T h e dotted lines p re se n t th e possible situ atio n according to the plan o f th e T ia n jin B inhai a n d C aofeidian N e w A reas. Im p a c ts o f B o h a i B a y lanci r e c la m a tio n o n w a te rb ird s 247 Figure 4. L and reclam atio n a ctiv ity o n th e m udflats in C aofeidian N e w A rea in sp rin g 2007. W i n t e r c o u n ts ( 2 0 0 6 I 2 0 0 J to 2 0 0 9 /2 0 1 0 ) Since th e sta rt o f w in te r c o u n ts in 2006/2007, the d e n sity o f w a terb ird s u n d e rw e n t a rapid increase in b o th T ia n jin a n d T an g sh an , c o n cu rre n t w ith th e ra p id loss of tidal flats in the su rro u n d in g area (Table 4, Fig. 2). A lth o u g h w a te rb ird den sities in T an g sh an w ere re la tiv e ly stable fro m 2 007/2008 to 2008/2009, th e y decreased d u rin g 2009/2010, a r a th e r severe w in te r (Table 4). W ith the exception of th is last cold w in te r, w a te rb ird p o p u latio n s increased at the s tu d y sites, m a in ly due to the large in flu x of E u rasian C u rlew s a n d R elict G ulls, w h ich w ere the m o st c o m m o n w in te rin g w a terb ird s (Fig. 5). T he peak c o u n t o f w in te rin g E urasian C urlew s in th e core stu d y area in T an g sh a n increased fro m 6 % o f th e fly w ay p o p u latio n in 2006 to 1 7% in 2009; for Relict G uii th e p ro p o rtio n o f th e global p o p u latio n increased fro m 6 % in 2006 to 6 1% in 2009. S e a s o n a l c h a n g e s in s h o r e b ir d n u m b e r s in T a n g s h a n b e tw e e n 2009. a n d 20 09 T he o n ly co u n t sector th a t w as c o m p re h en siv e ly covered b y m o n th ly su rv e y s in b o th 2004 and 2009 w as Z u id o n g (Fig. 1). T he seasonal p a tte rn of change in sh o re b ird ab u n d an ce w as sim ilar in 2004 a n d 2009, w ith a large peak o c cu rrin g d u rin g n o rth w a rd m ig ra tio n in b o th y ears (Fig. 6). Fiow ever, com pared to th e 2004 su rv e y , w h ich w as carried o u t before the tidal flat reclam atio n in T an g sh an , th e densities of sh o reb ird s in this sector su b sta n tia lly increased d u rin g n o rth w a rd m ig ra tio n 2009 (Fig. 6), especially in th e th ree species for w h ich this area is o f special im p o rtan ce in flyw ay term s: S an d erlin g (11% o f th e ir flyw ay p o p u latio n o n 24 M a y 2009), E u rasian C urlew (8.7% o n 3 F e b ru a ry 2009) a n d Red K not (8.5% o n 10 M a y 2009); the 1 % c riterio n of E urasian C u rlew a n d R ed K not follow B am ford et al. (2008) to com pare w ith the percentage in 2004 (Yang et al. 2008). C h a n g e s in p r ed icted a n d o b s e r v e d n u m b e r s o f R e d K n o t a n d C u r le w S a n d p ip e r in T a n g s h a n b e tw e e n 2002 a n d 2 01 0 In th e core stu d y area in T an g sh an , th e peak c o u n ts of Red K not a n d C u rlew S an d p ip er increased dram atically fro m 1 3% a n d 3 % o f th e ir fly w ay p o p u latio n s in 2007 to 6 2 % a n d 2 3 % in 2010, respectively. A s sh o w n in Fig. 7, increasin g n u m b e rs o f Red K not a n d C u rlew S andpiper, th e tw o H - Y . Y a n g e t al. 248 Table 2. W aterbird species and their maximum numbers recorded in Tianjin and Tangshan during the study. Species are listed in order of abundance. "IUCN" shows the conservation status of each species; "1% " indicates species whose maximum num ber was more than 1% of their estimated flyway population (Wetlands International 2006, Bamford et a l 2008, Cao et a l 2009, Rogers et a l 2010, IUCN 2010 and BirdLife International 2011). Species English name Scientific name Red Knot Curlew Sandpiper Eurasian Curlew Red-necked Stint Dunlin Relict Guii Great Knot Black-headed Guii Kentish Plover Broad-billed Sandpiper Sharp-tailed Sandpiper Grey Plover Pied Avocet Sanderling Common Shelduck Marsh Sandpiper Bar-tailed Godwit Herring Guii Mew Guii Asian Dowitcher Black-tailed Guii Black-tailed Godwit Oriental Pratincole Mallard Common Green shank Slaty-backed Guii Lesser Sand Plover Common Tern Ruddy Turnstone Gull-billed Tern Little Egret Grey Heron Little Tern Terek Sandpiper W himbrel Black-winged Stilt Saunders's Guii Far Eastern Curlew Pacific Golden Plover Caspian Tern Spotted Redshank Common Redshank Common Sandpiper Long-billed Dowitcher Little Stint Wood Sandpiper Little Curlew Calidris canutus Calidris ferruginea Numenius arquata Calidris ruficollis Calidris alpina Larus relictus Calidris tenuirostris Larus ridibundus Charadrius alexandrinus Limicola falcinellus Calidris acuminata Pluvialis squatarola Recurvirostra avosetta Calidris alba Tadorna tadorna Tringa stagnatilis Limosa lapponica Larus argentatus Larus canus Limnodromus semipalmatus Larus crassirostris Limosa limosa Glareola maldivarum Anas platyrhynchos Tringa nebularia Larus schistisagus Charadrius mongolus Sterna hirundo Arenaria interpres Sterna nilotica Egretta garzetta Ardea cinerea Sterna albifrons Xenus cinereus Numenius phaeopus Himantopus himantopus Larus saundersi Numenius madagascariensis Pluvialis fulva Sterna caspia Tringa erythropus Tringa totanus Actitis hypoleucos Limnodromus scolopaceus Calidris m inuta Tringa glareola Numenius minutus Period of presence3 M M W, M W, W, M W, M, M M W, M, M W, M M W, W, M W, M M W M W, M M M M M M M, M M M W, M M M M M M M M M M M M M M aximum number Number Date 64958 M ay-10 M ay-10 Feb-09 May-08 May-09 Jan-09 May-07 Sep-06 M ay-10 May-09 May-09 Dec-07 Sep-08 May-09 Dec-07 M ay-10 May-08 Sep-06 Jan-08 May-08 Sep-07 Sep-08 Sep-06 Feb-09 Sep-06 Sep-08 May-08 May-07 May-07 May-08 Sep-06 Sep-07 M ay-10 May-08 May-07 May-07 Dec-06 May-08 May-08 Sep-06 Sep-08 May-07 Sep-07 May-09 M ay-10 May-09 M ay-10 4° 73 ° I8OO6 II522 995O M M 8477 7613 7031 6910 5280 5242 4340 3167 243° 235° 229O 1679 818 790 M 755 634 M B M B M 533 510 4OO M 399 359 336 331 211 192 170 162 B 95 73 7° 68 M 56 54 32 26 19 18 H 10 4 3 3 IUCN1, 1% LC LC NT LC LC VU VU LC LC LC LC LC LC LC LC LC LC LC LC NT LC NT LC LC LC LC LC LC LC LC LC LC LC LC LC LC VU VU LC LC LC LC LC LC LC LC LC > > > >C > >C >C > > >C > > > > > >C Im p a c ts o f B o h a i B a y lanci r e c la m a tio n o n w a te rb ird s 249 Table 2. Continued. Species English name Scientific name Great Egret Cattle Egret Spotted Greenshank Ruff Greater Sand Plover Grey-tailed Tattler Eurasian Oystercatcher Grey-headed Lapwing Glaucous Guii Chinese Egret Chinese Pond Heron Casmerodius albus Bubulcus ibis Tringa guttifer Philomachus pugnax Charadrius leschenaultii Heteroscelus brevipes Haematopus ostralegus Vanellus cinereus Larus hyperboreus Egretta eulophotes Ardeola bacchus Period of presence3 M aximum number Number Date M M M M M M W, M M W M M 3 3 2 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 Sep-07 May-07 May-10 May-08 May-07 May-07 May-07 May-08 Jan-09 May-07 May-07 IUC LC LC EN LC LC LC LC LC LC VU LC aW , M and B are w inter, m igration and breeding period respectively l’LC - Least Concern, NT - N ear T h re a te n e d , VU - Vulnerable, EN - Endangered, as listed by IU CN (2010) cthe flyw ay population is the world population. m o st c o m m o n m ig ra n t sh o re b ird s d u rin g n o rth w a rd m ig ra tio n , could p a rtially be accounted for b y d isplacem ent o f b ird s fro m lost areas. T h at th e predicted increases are sm aller th a n the actual increases sh o u ld n o t su rp rise us, as m a n y areas w ere n o t co u n te d p re v io u sly a t the peak p eriod (B arter et al. 2001, 2003). T he g en eral p a tte rn of increase is c o n sisten t w ith th e idea th a t o v e r the course o f th e y ears, as m o re m u d flat areas in B ohai B ay w ere reclaim ed, th e staging p o p u latio n s becam e e v er m o re c o n cen trated in w h a t rem ain ed , as sh o w n d irectly for Red K not (Fig. 8). In 2010, w ith 970 birds km - ’, th e d e n sity of R ed K not w as fo u r tim es h ig h e r th a n in the y e ars up to 2007 (211 b ird s km - ’) in th e core stu d y area. Discussion T he Y ellow Sea is a critical sto p o v er site fo r w a terb ird s in the EAAF (B arter 2002, M in to n et al. 2006). T he large n u m b e rs a n d d iv ersity o f w a terb ird s in th e p re se n t stu d y area d u rin g m ig ra tio n periods (especially d u rin g n o rth w a rd m ig ra tio n ) a n d in w in te r confirm th e critical im p o rtan ce of th e B ohai B ay coast fo r m ig ra tin g w aterb ird s. B ohai B ay su p p o rts h ig h p ro p o rtio n s of th e flyw ay p o p u latio n s o f Relict G uii, Red K not, B road-billed S andpiper, C u rlew S an d p ip er a n d E urasian C u rlew (Table 2). W ith th e c u rre n t rap id econom ic g ro w th in C h in a leading to increasin g h u m a n p o p u latio n s a n d in d u stria l projects in coastal areas, h a b ita t loss re su ltin g fro m w e tla n d reclam atio n re m a in s a m ajo r th re a t for b io d iv e rsity conservation. D u rin g 1994-2010 o n e th ird o f the in te rtid a l m udflats in th e w e ste rn a n d n o rth e r n B ohai Bay sy ste m w ere lost to in d u stria l d evelopm ent, w ith the speed o f lan d reclam atio n a ctually Table 3. Changes in the available intertidal area along w estern and n o rth ern Bohai Bay and w aterbird densities in M ay in the study areas in Tianjin and T angshan from 2007 to 2010. Period Average temperature r q 2007 2008 2009 2010 1 9 .4 1 7 .8 20.6 18.4 ■ Retained mudflats in W & N Bohai Bay(km2) Average mudflats surveyed (km2) Average density of waterbirds (bird/km2) Tianjin Tangshan Tianjin 49 2 447 396 370 46 67 67 59 67 252 292 145 — — 574 755 961 H — — “Average tem p eratu re in M ay in Tangshan (CMDSSS 2010) Tangshan H -Y. Yang et al. Table 4. Changes in the available intertidal area along western and northern Bohai Bay, densities of waterbirds and of the two main groups (shorebirds and gulls) in w inter (December, January and February) in the study areas in Tianjin and Tangshan from 2006 to 2010. Period Average temperature in Tianjin (°C) a Average temperature in Tangshan (0C) a 2006-2007 2007-2008 2008-2009 2009-2010 - 0 .4 - 1 .4 - 1 .4 - 3-3 —0.2 —1.6 - 1-5 - 3-2 Retained mudflats in W & N Bohai Bay (km2) 2 Average mudflats surveyed (km2) Average density of waterbirds (birds km“2) Average density of shorebirds (birds km“2) Average density of gulls (birds km"2) „. .. iianjin „ , iangshan Tianjin Tangshan Tianjin Tangshan Tianjin Tangshan 492 447 396 370 46 25 12 — 67 43 67 56 24 112 326 — 85 269 5 38 234 — 19 7° 90 — 10 225 174 83 247 88 68 25 59 5 aAverage temperature in winter months (December, January and February) in Tianjin and Tangshan (CMDSSS 2010) 250 Im p a c ts o f B o h a i B a y lanci r e c la m a tio n o n w a te rb ird s 18000 251 - 16000 E u r a s i a n C u rle w 14000 □ T ianjin ■ T angshan 12 0 00 10000 - 8000 - 6000 - II 1000 ¿000 8000 7000 - 6000 - Rel ict Guii □ T ianjin T a n g th a n 5000 4000 3000 - 2000 - 1000 D -0 6 F -0 7 D -0 7 1-08 F -0 8 D -0 8 J-0 9 F-09 D -09 J -1 0 F -1 0 M onth Figure 5. M o n th ly n u m b e rs o f E u rasia n C u rlew a n d Relict G uii, tw o m ain species, at stu d y sites in T ia n jin a n d T an g sh a n d u rin g w in te r m o n th s fro m 2006 to 2010 (the re m a in in g stu d y sites in T ia n jin w ere n o t su rv e y ed in th e last w in ter). A verage m udflats su rv e y ed in T ia n jin and T an g sh a n in each w in te r show ed in T able 4. 1 % of th e flyw ay p o p u latio n o f E u rasian C u rlew is 1,000 b ird s (Cao et al. 2009) a n d th a t of th e w o rld p o p u latio n of R elict G uii is 120 b ird s (W etlands In te rn a tio n a l 2006, B irdLife In te rn a tio n a l 2010a). D, J a n d F are D ecem ber, Ja n u a ry and F eb ru ary , respectively. accelerating since 2006. W h a t w o u ld h a p p en if th e in te rtid a l h a b ita ts c o n tin u e d to decrease? W o u ld the n u m b e r o f w a terb ird s in B ohai B ay be reduced o r w o u ld th e y m ove to n e a rb y re m a in in g w etlan d ? From 2007 to 2010 th e p o p u latio n s o f w aterb ird s, especially shorebirds, n oticeably increased in th e core stu d y sites in T an g sh a n (Beipu, N a n p u a n d Z uidong) th a t w ere n o t m u c h affected b y reclam atio n schem es (Tables 3, 4). T he increase in sh o re b ird n u m b e rs a t Z u id o n g has b e e n goin g o n since a t least 2004 w h e n th e m ain reclam atio n s b eg an (Fig. 6; Y ang et al. 2008). M eanw hile, R ed K not a n d C u rlew S andpiper, the tw o m ain species d u rin g n o rth w a rd m ig ra tio n , c o n tin u e d to c oncentrate in th e core area in T an g sh an as lan d reclam a tio n c o n tin u e d in B ohai Bay (Figs. 7 a n d 8). T h is suggests th a t b ird s m oved fro m th e lost m u d flats to w h a t w as left n earb y ; it m a y also m ea n th a t th e y h ave n o w h e re else to go. T w o subspecies o f R ed K not, C. c. piersm ai and C. c. rogersi, stage a t th e in te rtid a l m u d flats of B ohai Bay. A ccording to th e peak c ounts, b y 2010 at least 6 7 % o f the w o rld p o p u latio n of C. c. piersm a i a n d 5 7 % o f C. c. rogersi, based o n th e figures in R ogers et al. (2010) refuelled a t the core stu d y sites for several w eeks in A p ril a n d M ay . T he increase in R ed K n o t n u m b e rs co u n ted is actu ally accom panied b y decreases in the total flyw ay p o p u latio n of the tw o subspecies, fro m c.222,000 b ird s in 2000 (B am ford et al. 2008) to 130,000 b ird s in 2007 (P iersm a 2007) to 105,000 b ird s in 2009 (R ogers et al. 2010). S im ilarly, C u rlew S an d p ip er o n th e ir w in te rin g g ro u n d s in H - Y . Y a n g e t al. 252 30000 25000 20000 <D E 3 2 15000 2009 10000 5000 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec M onth F igure 6. M a x im u m m o n th ly n u m b e rs of sh o reb ird s a t Z u id o n g in T an g sh an (including 22 k m ’ of in te rtid a l flats) in 2004 a n d 2009 (2004 data fro m Y ang et al. 2008). A u stra lia have also sh o w n decreasing n u m b e rs o v e r 30 y ears (G osbell a n d C lem ens 2006, R ogers a n d G osbell 2006a, C. M in to n u n p u b l. data). T herefore, o u r stu d y confirm s the pred ictio n th a t b ird s are forced in to ev er sm aller areas o f tidal flat in B ohai B ay d u rin g n o rth w a rd m ig ra tio n . A large p ro p o rtio n o f th e w o rld 's declining p o p u latio n o f R elict G uii n u m b e rin g 12,000 birds (BirdLife In te rn a tio n a l 2010a, IU C N 2010) w in te rs in B ohai Bay. T he T ia n jin coast w as 70-, ^ 60 oo 50 S . 40 - 10 Fted Knotpredcled Fted Knot courted - 50 -, oO 40 0 X, 30 □ Curlew Sancfrÿer precicted ■ Clilew Sandpjjer courted I— _q 2D 1 z 10- ^ ^ ^ Year F igure 7. Predicted a n d co u n ted peak n u m b e rs of R ed K not (A) a n d C u rlew S an d p ip er (B) in the core stu d y area (Beipu, N a n p u a n d Z u idong) (including 67 k m ’ o f tidal flats) in T an g sh an d u rin g n o rth w a rd m ig ra tio n fro m 2000 to 2010. T he w h ite a n d black b a rs give th e predicted and counted peak n u m b e rs a t th e core stu d y sites in 2000-2002, 2004 a n d 2006-2010 respectively. I m p a c ts o f B o h a i B a y la n d r e c l a m a t io n o n w a te rb ird s 253 s g 70 - 2010 t 60fD Cüû 40S S 30- 2009 2008 * I. 2 0 o 2007^2006 ^ 10- S 3 ^ 2000-2002 c 300 400 500 600 700 Av a ila b le m u d f l a t s i n W & N Bo h ai Bay ( k m 2) Figure 8. C hanges in peak n u m b e rs of Red K n o t in th e core stu d y area in T an g sh an (Beipu, N a n p u an d Z uido ng) in parallel w ith changes in th e available in te rtid a l area in T ian jin and T an g sh an along w e ste rn an d n o rth e rn B ohai B ay d u rin g n o rth w a rd m ig ra tio n fro m 2000 to 2010. p re v io u sly th e m o st im p o rta n t k n o w n w in te rin g g ro u n d , especially for a d u lts (Liu et al. 2006). In te re stin g ly , th e larg e st n u m b e r o f Relict G ulls occurred in T ian jin (8,230 birds, of w h ich 7,880 b ird s w ere fo u n d in the Jingqu sub-area, so u th o f th e D u liu jia n e stu a ry an d n o t p a rt o f o u r stu d y area; Fig. 1) o n 17 D ecem ber 2005 a t th e b e g in n in g of the severe 2005/2 0 0 6 w in te r (Fig. 9) w h e n exposed m udflats w ere still available (Y. L iu u n p u b l. data). H ow ever, th e im p o rta n ce o f T ianjin has decreased since late 2007, as m u c h o f th e trad itio n a l w in te rin g h a b ita t has b een co n v erted in to land for in d u stria l d evelopm ent. In th e 2008/2 0 0 9 w in te r th e y h ad a p p a re n tly m o v ed to T an g sh an w h e re th e y w ere fo u n d in good n u m b e rs (7,318 birds, 6 1 % of th e ir global population, in Ja n u a ry 2009), coinciding w ith h a b ita t loss in Jingqu (Fig. 2), w h ic h h eld the larg e st n u m b e r of Relict G ulls c o u n te d in T ianjin. T h e n u m b e r of Relict G ulls p re se n t in o u r re m a in in g stu d y sites in T ia n jin an d T an g sh an in th e 2008-2009 w in te r (8,477 birds) m atch ed th e p rev io u s m ax im u m w in te r c o u n t in T ia n jin (8,230 bird s in 2005, Y. L iu u n p u b l. data). T h a t Relict G uii n u m b e rs w ere so m u c h low er d u rin g th e follow ing w in te r (Fig. 5) m u s t have b e en d u e to th is w in te r b e in g the m o st severe in B ohai B ay for 30 y e ars (Fig. 9). W e a th e r c onditions have p re v io u sly affected th e w in te r d istrib u tio n o f Relict G uii (Liu et al. 2006, B irdLife In te rn a tio n a l 2010a). W e suggest th a t th e T a n g sh an in te rtid a l area has becom e th e m o st im p o rta n t w in te rin g g ro u n d for Relict G uii in n o rm a l w in ters. E u rasia n C u rlew is n o w listed as 'N e a r T h re a te n e d ' (BirdLife In te rn a tio n a l 2010b, IU C N 2010) a n d according to a n u p d a te d estim ate, th e ir EAAF p o p u latio n is n o w 100,000 bird s (Cao et al. 2009). T he difference b e tw ee n th e n e w e stim ate a n d th e old one o f 40,000 b ird s (B am ford et al. 2008) can be explained b y th e inclu sio n o f p re v io u sly u n k n o w n n u m b e rs o f bird s w in te rin g in C h in a b u t n o t a n increase in th e flyw ay pop u latio n . E u rasian C u rlew w in te r o n th e coasts o f the EAAF an d the m o st n o rth e rly an d a b u n d a n t area is Bohai B ay (Cao et al. 2009). In n o rm al w in te rs fro m 2 006/2007 to 2008/2009, E u rasian C u rlew n u m b e rs increased ra p id ly in the T an g sh an stu d y area (Fig. 5), p ossibly because p re v io u sly im p o rta n t w in te rin g areas n e a rb y w ere reclaim ed b y C aofeidian N e w A re a (H.Y. Y ang u n p u b l. data; Fig. 2). T h a t 4 ,0 0 0 -5 ,0 0 0 E u rasian C urlew s stay ed for the w hole o f th e coldest w in te r in 30 y e ars show s th a t th is sm all area of in te rtid a l m udflats in T an g sh an is v e ry attrac tiv e (Figs. 5 a n d 9). O n g o i n g la n d d e v e l o p m e n t s a n d p red icte d effects o n w a te rb ird s A n e w big in d u stria l d evelopm ent, C a n g zh o u Bohai N e w A rea, has b e en u n d e r d ev elo p m en t in so u th -w e ste rn Bohai B ay since 2007, w ith 3,321 km " o f p lan n e d d evelopm ents in clu d in g a 117 k i r r o ffshore area (SO A PR C 2009). A ccording to the land re clam a tio n plans (Table 1) an d the 1979-1980 1989-1990 1999-2000 2009-2010 Year F igure 9. A verage w in te r te m p e ra tu re s (D ecem ber, Jan u a ry , F ebruary) in T ia n jin fro m 198 0 / 1981 to 2 0 09/2010 (C M D SS S 2010). W e used the average w in te r te m p e ra tu re in T ian jin as the te m p e ra tu re is sim ilar in th e tw o areas (Table 4). presence o f sea w alls still to be closed (pers. obs.), m o re m arin e h a b ita ts, in clu d in g large areas of in te rtid a l m ud flat, w ill soon be lost a t all th re e d ev elo p m en t project sites. In addition, th e local g o v e rn m e n t has sta rte d o th e r sm all reclam atio n projects in th e core stu d y area, w h ic h affect in te rtid a l areas b y direct lan d c o n v ersio n as w ell as th e p u m p in g o f sand to fill-in n e a r-sh o re saltpans (Fig. 10). W e suggest th a t w a terb ird d ensities a t th e re m a in in g coastal sites in B ohai Bay, especially in T an g sh an , w ill c o n tin u e to increase as in te rtid a l flats are lost. A s a re su lt, th e survival o f birds forced to co n g reg ate to g e th e r o r to relocate is likely to decrease, leading to a decline in th e ir flyw ay p o p u latio n s (Evans et al. 1979, G o ss-C u sta rd 1980, B aker et al. 2004, B u rto n et al. 2006, G o ss-C u sta rd et al. 2006). If th e e n tire in te rtid a l area in B ohai B ay disappears, w h a t w ill h a p p en to the w a terb ird s th a t depend o n it no w ? A lo n g the Y ellow Sea coastline, m udflats are b ein g lost a t g re at speed (B arter 2002, M o o res 2006, M o o res et al. 2008, S O A P R C 2009, W a n et al. 2009), a n d it is believed th a t declines in m ig ra to ry sh o re b ird p o p u latio n s in A u stra lia a n d N e w Z ealan d o v e r th e last 30 y ears (G osbell a n d C lem ens 2006, S o u th e y 2009, C. M in to n u n p u b l. data, A W S G a n d A r th u r R ylah In stitu te u n p u b l. data) are due to th e loss o f feeding h a b ita t at stopovers along th e Y ellow Sea F igure 10. R eclam ation activities at Z u id o n g , one o f th e core stu d y sites in T an g sh an , since 2009 for in d u stry . A show s lan d reclam atio n o n th e m udflats. B a n d C are th e p u m p in g of sand from the m u d flats (B) to fill-in n e a r-sh o re saltpans (C). Im p a c ts o f B o h a i B a y lanci r e c la m a tio n o n w a te rb ird s 255 coast (B arter 2005, G osbell a n d C lem ens 2006, C. M in to n a n d D. R ogers pers. com m .). T h at the Y ellow Sea m a y w ell be filled to capacity is d e m o n stra te d b y th e declines b e tw ee n 2006 a n d 2008 in 19 o f th e m o st a b u n d a n t sh o re b ird species at S a e m a n g eu m (137,000 sh o re b ird s in total; M oores et al. 2008), a re ce n tly reclaim ed in te rtid a l area in S o u th K orea th a t w as p re v io u sly th e p re m ie r sh o re b ird site in th e Y ellow Sea (M oores 2006, R ogers et al. 2006b). A m o n g th e m w as th e G reat K not C alidris tenuirostris, endem ic to th is flyw ay, of w h ich 23 % of th e p o p u latio n depended o n S a e m a n g eu m d u rin g n o rth w a rd m ig ra tio n (R ogers et al. 2006b, M o o res et al. 2008). Since the S a e m a n g eu m m u d flats w ere closed off, the w o rld p o p u latio n has declined b y 2 0 % (M oores et al. 2008) re su ltin g in G re at K not n o w bein g assessed as 'V u ln e ra b le ' b y IU C N (2010) a n d BirdLife In te rn a tio n a l (2010c). A p p a ren tly , th is u n iq u e sh o re b ird species h a d n o w h e re else to go. In view of th e a g ree m e n ts b e tw ee n C h in a a n d Japan (B eijing-1981), a n d C h in a a n d A u stra lia (C a n b erra -1 9 8 8 ) to safeg u ard m ig ra to ry b ird s a n d th e ir e n v iro n m e n ts (A non. 1981, 1988), C hina sh o u ld p ro tec t the re m a in in g in te rtid a l areas w ith in B ohai Bay to lim it fu rth e r declines in w a te rb ird p o p u latio n s w ith in th e EAAF. A d d itio n ally , in o rd e r to m o n ito r the effects o f tidal flat reclam atio n o n w aterb ird s, sy stem atic su rv e y s sh o u ld be conducted, especially d u rin g th e w in te r a n d n o rth w a rd m ig ra tio n periods. A lso, m o re research sh o u ld be carried o u t to develop a good u n d e rsta n d in g of th e re la tio n sh ip b e tw ee n m udflats, b e n th o s a n d w a terb ird s to u n d e rsta n d the u n iq u e ecosystem in B ohai B ay th a t su p p o rts such large w a terb ird n u m b ers. It is also im p o rta n t th a t decision m ak e rs a n d th e public are m ade fu lly aw are of th e g re at im p o rtan ce o f B ohai Bay for w aterb ird s, a n d o f th e p o ten tial e n v iro n m e n ta l d isaster for all th o se th a t re ly o n the tidal flats as a food source, in clu d in g th e m a n y h u m a n beings th a t h a rv est the B ay's finfish a n d shellfish (Kim et al. 2006, Sato 2006, N ie a n d Tao 2008, W a n et al. 2009). Acknowledgements T his p roject w as su p p o rte d b y N a tio n a l Basic R esearch P ro g ra m o f C h in a (G ran t N o. 2006C B 403305), N a tio n a l N a tu ra l Science F o u n d a tio n o f C h in a-G u an g d o n g Joint F und (G rant N o. U 0833005) a n d th e N a tio n a l Fish a n d W ildlife F oun d atio n -C o n o co P h illip s SPIR IT of C o n se rv a tio n M ig ra to ry B ird P ro g ra m a n d th e In te rn a tio n a l C rane F oundation. W e acknow ledge th e su p p o rt for o u r field research fro m M in g -L u W u , Section C h ief of th e F o re stry D e p artm en t, H ebei Province, C hina. W e th a n k R u -L in G ao for his e n th u sia stic g u id in g to m o st o f th e stu d y sites in T an g sh a n a n d his g e n e ro sity in sh a rin g his local know ledge . W e th a n k R u i-D in g Z hao, Biao W an g , X u e -S o n g Feng, D ong-L ai Li, S i-H a n g C hen, Jia n -Q ian g Li, N in g W an g , Lei G uan, Y ang Q iu, W ei-P a n Lei, S i-H ai Y an, T ian Fang, L an Z h a n g a n d X iao-Jing Li for field assistance a n d D ong-L ai Li for h e lp in g d ra w th e m ap o f stu d y sites. 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