Does the Growth of Urban Settlements Follow a Certain Pattern? –
Answers Given by Long-term Monitoring of European City Regions
Gotthard MEINEL & Michael WINKLER
Leibniz Institute of Ecological and Regional Development (IOER), Weberplatz 1, 01217 Dresden, Germany, [email protected], [email protected]
1
INTRODUCTION
The land use and its structure are basis indicators for the socio-economic and ecological capacity of cities (Arlt et al., 2001). Yet, the
growth of settlement and traffic areas is alarmingly high, not only in Germany but also in other Western industrial countries (Federal
Environmental Agency, German Environmental Index DUX, 2003). Since in particular the multi-temporal recording is very timeconsuming, there are only a few national and international GIS data bases available which allow quantitative, comparative
investigations of the land use development. Within the research project “Long-term surveys of land use changes and their
environmental effects on soil and landscape structure”, which was started at the IOER in 2001, urban and rural regions have been
investigated over long-term periods. As an example for this purpose the land use data of the EU project MOLAND (Monitoring Land
Use/Cover Dynamics, EEA 2002), recorded at four time slots during the past 50 years, for the cities of Bilbao, Bratislava,
Copenhagen, Dresden, Lyon, Munich, Oporto and Palermo were chosen for decided GIS analyses in order to answer questions on the
sustainability of the urban development. Furthermore, the provision of the cities with recreational areas including their reachability as
well as the degrees of soil sealing and urbanisation were calculated. For the city of Dresden the investigation was expanded to a
period of 200 years (eight time slots), and sophisticated analyses in connection with the population trend, the traffic route
development and the consumption of valuable land for agriculture were accomplished.
2
DEVELOPMENT OF LAND USE
The development of the land use according to the main classes of the eight European study cities revealed some commonness
(Fig. 5). The areas of urban fabric as well as areas used for industry, commerce and traffic saw a steady increase on the expenses of
agriculturally used land, forests and semi-natural areas within the past 50 years. Admittedly, a decelerated development of this
process was visible within the last survey period starting from the middle of the 80s. The development of land use – distinguished by
core and surrounding area – also revealed that the growth of settlements took place mainly in the surrounding zones although there
were still potentials – albeit to a different extent – for a densification in the core zones of the cities (Fig. 6).
Land Use Development - Main Classes - Entire City Area
350
Urban fabric (1.1)
300
Industrial, com mercial
and transport units (1.2)
Area [km²]
250
Mine, dum p, and
construction sites (1.3)
200
150
Artificial non-agricultural vegetated areas
(1.4)
100
Agricultural land (2.)
50
Forests and sem inatural areas (3.)
0
56 72 84 97
Bilbao
49
69 85 97
54 69
86 98
53 68 86 98
Bratislava Copenhagen Dresden
56 65 79 97
Lyon
55 70 85 97
Munich
5868 83 97 55 63
Oporto
89 97
Palermo
Fig. 5: Comparative presentation of the development of land use according to main classes for the entire city area.
The degrees of soil sealing for the core, surrounding and entire city area were calculated by assignment of a specific average degree
of soil sealing for each land use type (Fig. 6).
The degree of urbanisation is defined by the ratio of the settlement area to the total area. It was calculated separately for the core,
surrounding, and extended surrounding area as well as the entire city zone and entire study area of Dresden (Fig. 7). Most remarkable
is the almost linear increase of the degree of urbanisation in all analysis periods since nearly 200 years, despite the completely
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Gotthard MEINEL & Michael WINKLER
different societal and economic conditions during that time. Only the period of promoterism between 1880 and 1900 (“Gründerzeit”)
saw an even bigger rise of the degree of urbanisation caused by a strong population growth and a powerful economic development.
Degree of Soil Sealing in Different Analysis Areas
70%
60%
Degree of soil sealing
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
0%
Year
56
72 84 97
49
Bilbao
69 85 97
Bratislava
54
69
86 98
Copenhagen
53 68
86 98
Dresden
Entire City Area
56 65 79 97
55 70
Lyon
85 97
58 68 83
Munich
Core Area
97
55 63
Oporto
89 97
Palermo
Surrounding Area
Fig. 6: Comparative presentation of the development of the degree of soil sealing for core, surrounding and entire city area.1
Degree of Urbanisation for the City of Dresden
Degree of urbanisation [%]
100
80
60
40
20
0
Year 1790
1880
1900
‘40
‘53
‘68
‘86 ‘98
Size of the analysis areas in km²
Core area
Surrounding area
Entire city area
Extended surrounding area
20km-circle (entire study area)
131,8
273,8
405,6
847,9
1253,5
Fig. 7: Development of the degree of urbanisation of the city of Dresden for different extents of the analysis area.
3
ASSESSMENT OF NEW SETTLEMENT AREAS
In order to achieve a sustainable city development preferably short distances of the new settlement areas to the settlement core (e.g.
traffic-reducing effects) and their strong integration into the existing settlements (minimizing development costs, etc.) should be
aspired. For that purpose every new settlement area was evaluated according to its location in relation to the settlement core and its
degree of integration into the existing settlements. For the classification according to the location three classes were created: 1st inner
1
Since for the city of Lyon no core demarcation line had been delivered investigations could be carried out solely for
the entire city area.
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9th International Symposion on Planning & IT
Does the Growth of Urban Settlements Follow a Certain Pattern? – Answers Given by Long-term Monitoring of European City
Regions
development (I), if the new settlement area was situated within the respective old settlement core, 2nd fringe development (F), if the
settlement growth took place between the old and the new settlement core within two time slots, and 3rd outer development (O), if the
new settlement area was situated outside of the new settlement core (Neumann, 2002). By means of a GIS-supported analysis of all
new settlement areas for all study periods and subsequent cumulation the periods of development can be assessed regarding their
sustainability (Fig. 8). It appeared that the last period (1986-98) was characterised by high settlement processes in the outer region
(Type O), which did not characterise a sustainable development.
Classification of New Settlement Areas According to Their Location
for the City of Dresden
Annual increase of new settlements [ha]
350
Type I
Inner Development
300
Type F
Fringe Development
250
Type O
Outer Development
200
150
100
50
0
Period
of Time
17901880
18801900
19001940
19401953
19531968
19681986
19861998
Fig. 8: Statistics of new settlement areas differentiated by their location for the city of Dresden.
The degree of integration of new settlement areas into the existing settlements can be assessed by the ratio (I) of the length of the
shared borderline of the new artificial area with the existing settlement area and the perimeter of the new artificial area itself
(Winkler, 2001). Thus, four classes of the new settlements were created according to the way of their integration into the existing
settlements (Fig. 9): totally (I>2/3), well (1/3<I≤2/3), less (0<I≤1/3) or not integrated (I=0).
Classification of New Settlement Areas According to Their Integration
600
totally integrated
well integrated
less integrated
not integrated
500
Area p.a. [km²]
400
300
200
100
Bilbao
Bratislava
Copenhagen
Dresden
Lyon
Munich
Oporto
1989 - 1997
1963 - 1989
1955 - 1963
1983 - 1997
1968 - 1983
1958 - 1968
1985 - 1997
1970 - 1985
1955 - 1970
1979 - 1997
1965 - 1979
1956 - 1965
1986 - 1998
1968 - 1986
1953 - 1968
1986 - 1998
1969 - 1986
1954 - 1969
1985 - 1997
1969 - 1985
1949 - 1969
1984 - 1997
1972 - 1984
Period
of Time
1956 - 1972
0
Palermo
Fig. 9: Statistics of new settlement areas by their degree of integration into the existing settlement area – comparative overview.
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4
PROVISION OF RECREATIONAL AREAS
Furthermore, the provision of public recreational areas within the eight study cities, including their reachability for the urban
population, was investigated (Meinel/Winkler, 2003). The analyses yielded that there was not only a drastic decrease of the amount
of recreational areas in all study areas (Fig. 10) but also a worse reachability became visible particularly in the core zones of the cities
(Fig. 11). The research was based on the calculation criteria of the “European Common Indicators” (Technical Report - European
Common Indicators, 2000) which refers to the share of residential areas being situated within a buffer zone of 300 m around public
recreational areas (mainly parks and forests, to a lower degree agriculturally used areas).
Share of Recreational Areas in Different Analysis Areas
(Recreational Areas > 5000 m²)
100%
90%
Share of recreational areas
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
0%
Year 56
72 84 97 49
1950Bilbao
69 85 97
2050
Bratislava
53 68
86 98 53 68 86 98
Copenhagen 2150
Dresden
Entire City Area
56 65 79 97
55 70 85 97 58 68
2250 Munich
Lyon
Core Area
83 97 55 63 89 97
2350
Oporto
Palermo
Surrounding Area
Fig. 10: Share of recreational areas in different analysis areas.
Reachability of Recreational Areas in the Core Zones
100%
Adequately supplied residential areas
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
0%
Year 56 72 84 97
1950
Bilbao
49
69 85 97 54 69
2050
Bratislava
86 98
Copenhagen
53 68
86 98
2150
Dresden
56 65 79 97
55 70 85 97 58 68 83 97 55 63
2250
Lyon
Munich
2350
Oporto
89 97
Palermo
Fig. 11: Reachability of recreational areas accessible to the public and free of charge in the core zones.
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Does the Growth of Urban Settlements Follow a Certain Pattern? – Answers Given by Long-term Monitoring of European City
Regions
5
LIVING DENSITY AND POPULATION FIGURES
The increase of settlement areas is determined by population growth, increasing demands for living space (size of flats and urban
open space) as well as an expansion of industrial and commercial areas. In order to differentiate between these driving forces the
population figure was put into ratio with the residential area (Fig. 12). The figure shows that the highest living density
(27,000 inhabitants/sqkm) was reached in 1900. Until 1998 this figure dropped down by around 75 % to 7,000 inhabitants/sqkm due
to a decreased building density in the residential areas (also caused by the massive destructions in World War II) as well as increased
demands for living space and urban open space (Meinel/Neumann, 2003). As an additional reason the incorporation of suburban
communities with a lower population density compared to their settlement density can be stated.
Development of Population and Living Density
of the City of Dresden
30
Population figure [in 1000]
25
450
20
15
300
10
150
5
0
Year 1790
1880
1900
'40
Population figure
'53
'68
'86 '98
0
Living density [in 1000 inhabitants/sqkm]
600
Living density
Fig. 12: Development of the population figures and the living density in the past 200 years for the city of Dresden.
6
CONSUMPTION OF FRUITFUL SOIL
Many cities have been grown along rivers and therefore in most of the cases on very fertile floodplain soil. Due to suburbanisation
processes very fruitful arable land has been used for settlement activities and got sealed until today. In doing so it lost its capability
for agricultural usage in a mostly irreversible way. By processing of the data of the “Reichsbodenschätzung”2 and subsequent
intersecting with the land use data bases of the city of Dresden the consumption of soil differentiated by their biotic potential of
production could be calculated (Fig. 13). It was revealed that the land had been used for settlement activities without considering its
quality. At no point of time fruitful soil has been conserved.
Soil Value Level (Biotic Potential)
Small
Medium
High
Very High
1600
1400
Area [ha]
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
0
Greenland
10-19
20-29
30-39
40-49
50-59
60-69
70-79
80-97
Value level of the biotic potential of production
Loss of soil between
Total area of the soil
value level
2
1934-1953
1934-1986
1934-1968
1934-1998
The soil assessment was started in the German Reich in 1934 and finished in the German Democratic Republic in 1955 (data taken from the
“Environmental Atlas Dresden”).
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Fig. 13: Loss of soil caused by building and sealing, differentiated by their biotic potential of production for the city of Dresden.
7
PRESENTATION OF THE STUDY RESULTS
The continued consumption of land and the therewith related problems are still insufficiently reflected in the society. Easy-tounderstand dynamic and interactive presentations of the creepingly ongoing land use development could improve the perception of
the problem. Therefore different methodological module and results of the studies of the research project “Long-term surveys of land
use changes and their environmental effects on soil and landscape structure” have been prepared for the Internet
(www.ioer.de/Langzeitmonitoring). The start up web page can be seen in Fig. 14.
Fig. 14: Start up web page of the research project „Long-term surveys of land use changes” (www.ioer.de/Langzeitmonitoring).
With the aid of the Macromedia Flash the development of the core settlement area of Dresden – among several other applications –
was displayed using a morphing algorithm of the eight different time slots Fig. 15, (Seckel, 2003). Furthermore, the land use data
bases as well as the historic maps were made accessible in an interactive presentation in the Internet on the basis of ArcIMS
including the options “Select Layers”, “Zoom”, “Roaming” and “Queries” (http://map.ioer.de/website/FNDD/viewer.htm).
Fig. 15: Dynamic presentation of the settlement development of Dresden on the Internet using Macromedia Flash.
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Does the Growth of Urban Settlements Follow a Certain Pattern? – Answers Given by Long-term Monitoring of European City
Regions
8
BACK TO THE INITIAL QUESTION
When looking at the results of the researches one may come to the conclusion that the growth of urban settlement areas seems to
follow a certain pattern. Widely uncoupled from the societal conditions including the economic and demographic development the
urban settlement area has increased (Fig. 7). For that many reasons can be identified. In Germany, for instance, the settlement growth
has been determined by domestic constructions by almost the half of the building activity since 1993 (Federal Statistical Office,
2003). The subsidisation for the erection of single-family houses provided by the state3, the strong lobby of the building industry
(including building and loan associations) and the wish of large parts of the population to live in the green caused this settlement
growth which could be decelerated only by the economic stagnation in Germany since 2001. On the other hand there are a growing
number of unused areas in the form of derelict land (increase 12.7 % from 1993 until 2001) due to shrinking processes (e.g. surplus
of flats). In Germany there are more than 128,000 ha of derelict land which were formerly used for industry, commerce, military, and
traffic (BBR 2003). A sustainable development can only be achieved by a consequent usage of these derelict lands by revitalisation
or recycling. Thus, the manifold obstacles of the revitalisation of these areas (e.g. unsettled ownership structures, land contamination,
endeavours of speculation of the owners) must be reduced (Tomerius/Preuß, 2001). This long-term learning and working process
requires an open-minded discussion among the groups and persons involved (e.g. municipalities, owners, possible users, planning
offices, and residents). Tackling that challenge is not only a German but a European-wide issue.
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
The workings of the presented paper were based on data of the project MURBANDY (N°. 17430-2000-12 S0SC ISP DE). We would
like to thank Mr. Carlo Lavalle (JRC, Institute for Environment and Sustainability) and his team for their kind support of the works,
and the appropriation of the data bases. Furthermore, we would also like to thank Ms. Kathleen Neumann and Ms. Anja Seckel as
well as Mr. Jörg Hennersdorf for their fruitful contributions to this paper. The project was partially financed by the Deutsche
Forschungsgemeinschaft DFG (Me 1592/1-2).
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