ACCESS UPDATE
BREXIT: WHAT HAPPENED? WHY? WHAT NEXT?
By Richard Peel, published 22.08.16
On 23 June 2016, the people of the United Kingdom voted in a
referendum. The question each voter had to answer was:
For background, see the
update article “Britain and
Should the United Kingdom remain a member of the
the EU – the Final Cut?”
European Union or leave the European Union?
The two alternatives were generally called Remain and Leave – this second alternative was also
known as Brexit.
The final opinion polls before voting started suggested that the Remain vote would be slightly
bigger than the Leave vote. The polls closed at 10 p.m., and the nation held its breath while
counting started. As the the results came in through the night it soon became clear that the
Remain vote was lower than expected, and the Leave vote higher. In the early hours of 24 June
the result was beyond discussion: Brexit had won. Leave polled nearly 52 % of the vote; Remain
polled just over 48 %.
The results of the referendum for the four countries that make up the UK were as follows:
England:
Remain 46.8%
Leave 53.2%
Scotland
Remain 62%
Leave 38%
Northern Ireland:
Remain 55.7%
Leave 44.3%
Wales:
Remain 48.3%
Leave 51.7%
Whole UK:
Remain 48.1%
Leave 51.9%
So England and Wales voted to leave, while Scotland and Northern Ireland voted to remain. On
this count, the result was a 2-2 draw. However, England has by far the largest population of the
four countries, and the overall result was a clear victory for Brexit.
It is interesting to break down the votes according to different criteria.
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Age
The following table indicates how different age groups across the whole of the UK voted.
Areas with the most voters under 24 tended to have low turnouts. Some reports indicate that
only 36% of 18-24-year-olds voted.
Regions
The UK consists of four countries, and one of them, England, has eight regions. Two of the
countries, as we have seen, voted Remain; of England’s regions only one, London, voted Remain.
It is possible to read some interesting patterns within the regions. For example, many of the
largest cities (Manchester, Leeds, Liverpool, Newcastle) voted Remain, although in some cases
only a by small majority. Mid-size cities with strong university/higher education traditions (e.g.
Oxford, Cambridge, Brighton) voted firmly for Remain. Smaller towns and rural districts vote
solidly for Leave, and this was an important factor in tipping the balance in the final count.
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Many observers have pointed out that some regions that receive substantial EU funds for
development projects, such as the town of Ebbw Vale in South Wales, still voted Leave. Other
places, like Sunderland, where there are thousands of jobs in industries that declared they were
happiest inside the EU, also voted Brexit.
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A worker at Nissan’s car plant in Sunderland, which employs 6,700 people. In Sunderland, 60% voted for
Leave. Nissan will look at the deal the UK makes with the EU before it decides whether to pull out of the UK
following Brexit.
Parties
Voting in no way followed a left/right divide. Both the major parties were split down the middle
by this referendum. The Conservative party was split between its mainstream supporters, who
often live in the country or in smallish towns and voted Leave, and business-oriented
supporters, who work in towns and cities and voted Remain. The Labour party was split
between the urban liberal-minded middle class, who mostly voted Remain, and the core Labour
working class who in great numbers voted Leave. Both parties had Remain as their official party
policy.
All in all, more than half of Conservative voters voted Leave, while a third of Labour voters did.
What of the other parties?

The Liberal Democrats were solidly for Remain.

The Scottish National Party was strongly in favour of Remain.

United Kingdom Independence Party (Ukip) supporters, obviously, voted for Leave.

Northern Ireland Nationalists (usually Catholics) voted mostly for Remain, while Unionists –
that is, people wanting to keep the union with the rest of the UK – were split, with a majority
voting Leave, but a large minority supporting Remain.
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Why did Brexit win?
Brexit’s victory was not what Prime Minister David Cameron wanted or expected, nor was it
what the opinion polls had predicted at the beginning of 2016, when the Remain camp seemed
far stronger. Why did so many people swing behind Brexit?
“Leave!”
The Leave campaign was much more combative and energetic than the Remain campaign. It
attacked clear targets, telling the people of Britain:

the EU is undemocratic

the EU promotes global, anti-social capitalism

the EU regulates vigorously, often in a way many see as socialist

through its laws for the free
movement of people, the EU lies
behind massive immigration which
threatens our jobs, our welfare and
our way of life

the UK parliament has had to give up
important powers to EU decisionmakers; Brexit will “Take Back
Control”

huge sums of money are sucked out
of Britain by the EU, money that could
be far better spent at home, on the
National Health Service, for example

the EU wastes massive amounts of money on silly schemes like the monthly move from
Brussels to Strasbourg
Add a dash of nostalgia for “the good old days”, and you have a potent cocktail.
The Brexit campaign suggested that the UK would be able to keep the advantages of EU
membership – primarily free access to the single European market – without having to accept
the EU’s laws granting the free movement of people.
The Remain campaign failed to convince people that some of the claims by the Brexit camp were,
in their opinion, untrue or wildly exaggerated. For example, the Remain campaign failed to get
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their message across that immigration from Europe is a strong sign of a healthy economy, and
that the contribution to the UK’s finances from EU-immigrants outweighs what these
immigrants take from the UK. Instead, Leave’s tactics succeeded in tapping a deep resentment in
many sections of society against large-scale immigration. The crassest example of this tactic was
a poster behind Ukip leader Nigel Farage showing a long queue of people at a border control,
with the message “Breaking Point”.
“Remain!”
The Remain campaign has been criticised for being too subdued. What were its arguments for
Britain remaining in the EU?

Countless political leaders, business leaders, bankers, professors and assorted big-shots
talked about what they saw as the practical advantages of staying in the EU. They argued
that Britain’s economic prospects would be severely jeopardised by Brexit. They appealed to
people’s pockets, but they forgot that some British people’s pockets are already empty. Many
people in Britain are not doing very well, even if the economy as a whole is in fairly good
shape, and they simply do not see what benefit they get from membership in the EU. The
Remain campaign did not persuade them that continued membership woud help them.

The Remain campaign said too little about the achievements of the EU in social and
environmental policies, and in building a Europe where the wars of the past have become
unthinkable.
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
The Remain campaign failed to respond to the note of
pugnacity that had crept into the Brexit camp. When one
of the leading Brexiteers, Michael Gove, proclaimed that
“people in this country have had enough of experts”, the
Remain camp, where most of these experts were, failed to
make people realise what an absurd statement this was.

They also put little emphasis on the active role Britain
could play in the EU, and on how Britain could influence
the EU from within, rather than just opting out.
The media
The impact of the media was important. Britain’s popular
newspapers were overwhelmingly in favour of Brexit. It is
not difficult to see an appeal to nationalistic pride in some of
the headlines in the Sun and Daily Mail, for example.
However, serious newspapers also supported Brexit, notably the Daily Telegraph. It has been
calculated that the pro-Leave national newspapers have a normal readership that is four times
that of the pro-Remain newspapers.
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At the same time, it must be said that the British people can be fairly cynical about what
newspapers serve up. Radio and television were more balanced throughout the referendum
campaign, and were able to correct exaggerations and misinformation quickly.
Personalities, as presented and publicised in the media, also played some role in attracting
people to one side or the other: the Brexit side had the more colourful chorus-line, with Boris
Johnson, ex-mayor of London, their star turn. However, this was probably only a minor factor in
influencing the vote.
Conclusion
It would be wrong to imply that most of those who voted for Leave were activated by unsavoury
attitudes such as xenophobia or racism. The press and the impact of dynamic personalities may
have played some role in persuading people to vote Leave, but can probably only account for a
smallish chunk of the Brexit vote. The fact is that many sensible, thoughtful people who do not
read the Sun or the Daily Mail, and who do not regard the white cliffs of Dover as the edge of
civilisation, voted for Brexit. They were people who simply reckoned this was best for Britain,
for its economy, for its way of life and for its ability to control its own affairs.
Only time will tell if they were right.
A wider picture
There is also a wider picture. In many countries in the western world, people are voting for new
parties or supporting new movements that offer a fresh challenge to the established order. Some
of these parties and groups are on the left (as in Greece and Spain), some are on the right (as in
France and the Netherlands, and in the USA where Donald Trump appeals to this same antiestablishment sentiment). Some, however, are both leftist and rightist at the same time. The
Leave campaign in the UK can be seen as part of this protest movement, and it pulls in support,
as we have seen, from left and right.
The weekly news magazine the Economist has suggested that the old left/right divide in politics
is no longer a good picture of the political scene – instead there is a new, more important divide,
that between “open” and “closed” outlooks. In this scheme, “closed” means parties and
movements that want to keep foreigners out, reduce the power of the old, established political
and financial elites, and stress the values of their own national traditions. Some of the support
for Brexit fits fairly and squarely in this frame.
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Consequences of the referendum
The short-term political consequences of the referendum result were dramatic. British politics
were immediately plunged into a zone of uncertainty and flux.
Here is a timetable of some of the political action on the day after the referendum:
 Early in the morning, Prime Minister David Cameron announces that he will resign as soon
as his ruling Conservative party has chosen a new leader.
 Later that morning Nicola Sturgeon, leader of the Scottish National Party, says she will
prepare for a second referendum on Scottish independence.
 Soon after midday, a rebellion begins among Labour MPs. Their target is their own leader,
Jeremy Corbyn, who, they argue, failed to campaign persuasively for Remain.
 In the afternoon Sinn Fein, the Irish nationalist party, calls for a cross-border poll on a united
Ireland.
The first and third of these stories opened the doors to a period of confusion, and at the very
time when cool leadership was needed, the parties were locked in internal battles. There was,
indeed, a strange mood all over the country. The Remain campaign organised marches and
petitions with far more vigour than it had shown before the referendum. The whole thing is a
ghastly mistake, they seemed to say: let’s have a second referendum.
In the Conservative party the jostling for power was lively, but did not last all that long.
Cameron’s cabinet had been split between EU supporters amd Brexiteers, and the loudest of the
latter group, Michael Gove and Boris Johnson, who had worked as a team during the campaign,
now became bitter rivals. Gove suddenly announced that Johnson was unsuitable as a future
prime minister. Instead, said Gove, I am the man! No, you are not, said his party colleagues, not
when you stick your knife into the back of your “friend”. Instead, two women emerged as the
main candidates, Andrea Leadsom (who had supported Brexit) and Home Secretary Theresa
May (who had supported Remain). When Leadsom made the curious claim that she, being a
mother, was better suited to lead the country than May, who has no children, she lost support
among Conservative MPs, and withdrew. With only one candidate, the contest fizzled out, and
the UK had its second woman prime minister.
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Theresa May talking outside her new home in 10 Downing Street
Jeremy Corbyn had been elected leader of the Labour party in September 2015 – elected, that is,
by party members all over the country, not by Labour MPs, most of whom considered his views
too left-wing. A few days after the referendum Labour MPs had their own mini-referendum on
whether or not Corbyn should continue as their leader: 40 voted for him, 172 voted against him.
Most party leaders would resign in these circumstances, but not Corbyn! After a few weeks, the
Welsh MP Owen Smith emerged as his challenger for leadership. It is very possible Corbyn might
win again. If he does, the party could easily split into two parties, rather as the labour movement
in Norway is split between the Labour party and the Socialist Left party.
The leadersip struggles in these two parties were the short-term consequences of the
referendum. What happens in Scotland and Ireland will be long-term consequences.
Scotland
The criticisms levelled by the Leave campaign against the EU did not ring true in Scotland, and
most people there saw definite benefits from EU membership. The Scottish National Party (SNP)
has for many years wanted Scottish independence from the rest of the UK, and, we remember,
fought for this in the referendum on that very issue in September 2014. It lost on that occasion.
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Now the ball has bounced right back into its side of the court. Wait a minute, the SNP is saying:
we voted to remain in the EU; you cannot force us out! As we have seen, the First Minister of
Scotland, Nicola Sturgeon, lost no time in warning the government that Scotland would not let go
of the EU without a struggle, and that the SNP will demand a new referendum on Scottish
independence if it is not satisfied with the deal it gets. The game is still on.
Northern Ireland
Politics in Northern Ireland is shaped by an underlying divide between, on the one hand,
Catholic Nationalists who want Northern Ireland to leave the UK and re-join the rest of Ireland,
and, on the other hand, Protestant Unionists, who want to keep the union with the rest of the UK.
For years this was a violent dispute, with acts of terror committed by both sides, but, since the
Good Friday Agreement in 1998, politics have been conducted in a peaceful way. Nevertheless,
the tension between the two sides still exists, and Northern Ireland’s vote for Remain on 23 June
could easily, in the long run, add to the tension.
There are two big questions. First, when Britain leaves the EU, how will the border between the
Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland be managed? After all, it will be a border between the
EU and the outside world. If it becomes a “hard” border, this would be deeply unpopular with all
those hoping for a united Ireland. Second, when Britain leaves the EU will there be a massive
demand for special arrangements for Northern Ireland (since it voted for Remain), and will any
such arrangements loosen the union with the rest of Britain? This would be deeply unpopular
with those sections of Northern Ireland who are determined to stay in a union with the rest of
Britain. These are people determined to keep Ireland dis-united.
The answers to these questions lie in the future.
Short-term consequences for banks and business
The value of the pound against both the dollar and the euro dropped
sharply after the referendum result was known, and has not shown
signs of real recovery. This makes holidays for foreign tourists in
Britain, and British-produced goods that are exported, cheaper, but for
Brits it makes foreign holidays, and imported goods, more expensive.
Banks and building firms have had a shaky time, with confidence low,
but most other companies experienced a week or so of crisis, then
steadiness returned and they recovered.
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Uncertainty is the worst enemy of business confidence. Until the specifics of Brexit are known,
the picture will not be clear, and these specifics will be decided by negotiations. As far as the
longer economic consequences of Brexit are concerned, most commentators reckon Britain will
have a tough time outside the EU, its biggest single market.
Relations with the EU – Negotiations
Now we come to the most difficult question of all, but it is also the key question. The word
“Brexit” is brief and crisp. It is easy to think of the EXIT signs in airports or cinemas. When you
want to go out of the airport or cinema, you follow the signs and in no time you are outside – you
are blinking in the bright light, maybe, but your exit was quick and painless. Not so with Brexit.
Leaving the EU will be neither quick nor painless.
One problem area is the legal-constitutional one. Britain has no written constitution. There is no
law that defines the role of a referendum. So two questions immediately arise. First, is a
government obliged to follow the line indicated by a referendum result? Second, must
parliament give its consent to any new decisions or arrangements that flow from a referendum
result?
The answer to the first question is that there is nothing in British law that makes a referendum
binding for a government, but it is open to any government to say that it does consider the result
binding. This is a political decision, and this is the line that has been taken by the new prime
minister. “Brexit means Brexit,” Theresa May has said again and again. What she means is that
the people have decided, and that the government feels it must put their decision into effect
because not to do so would be bad politics. But then along comes the second question: What is
parliament’s role?
We have so far in this article hardly mentioned the Liberal Democratic party. In the general
election in 2015 they won only 8 seats, which was 49 fewer than in the previous election. A
disaster. Now, however, this party sees a chance of becoming a major player in politics again. If
there is one thing the Lib Dems believe in, it is that the EU is a Good Thing. They also know that a
majority of the 650 MPs in the House of Commons supported Remain in the referendum.
Parliament, they maintain, not the prime minister, must press the button to start negotiations
for Brexit: what is called triggering Article 50 of the Treaty of Lisbon. Some private individuals
are also making legal attempts to stop the prime minister doing this without parliament’s formal
support. Furthermore, the Lib Dems also want every important detail of the terms which will
now be negotiated, to be subject to a vote in parliament. And, at the end of the day, when
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Theresa May’s team of negotiators have finalised the terms of Brexit, the Lib Dems will almost
certainly demand a new referendum. The Lib Dems also know that there will be a general
election in 2020, possibly earlier, and this will also give the people the opportunity to vote for
candidates who want to cancel Brexit.
Negotiating terms
Prime Minister May is a tough politician. She was herself opposed to Brexit, but now she leads
the government that must negotiate its terms. She is of course fully aware of how complicated
and time-consuming these negotiations will be. The UK has been an EU member for more than
forty years and this has had an enormous impact on laws and institutions in the UK. Hundreds of
British laws only have effect because of the European Community Act, so there can be no Brexit
without each of these laws being redefined.
May’s goal is obviously to get specific results that benefit the UK; at the same time she cannot
expect people who supported Brexit to accept a result that fails to placate their resentments.
This means the deal cannot continue to allow free entry of people from the EU. She also knows
that even the most eager Brexiteer wants as many trading advantages as possible. Ideally, they
want to keep free access to the inner EU inner market, while opting out of other EU laws they
dislike.
This is their impossible dream. It is impossible because no one in the EU is willing to let Britain
pick and choose from the EU’S laws and arrangements: taking what it likes and throwing away
what it dislikes. That would only encourage other member-states to start their own “exits”. This
is the challenge facing the Brexit negotiations.
The time-scale of the negotiations, and their results, are impossible to predict now. One thing is
certain: the long-term consequences of the Brexit vote will include many surprises.
The impact of Brexit on the EU
The result of the referendum on 23 June was a shock to the EU. Immediately afterwards, EU
leaders did not really know what to say. Generally speaking, everyone was dismayed at the
result of the referendum, although perhaps for different reasons. The only people who rejoiced
were those who want their own countries to have their own exits.
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If we move our focus away from the uncertainties connected to Britain and its relationship with
the EU, we must emphasise that the Brexit vote on 23 June has put some important issues on the
EU agenda. Here are two of them:
 The standard EU response to a crisis is to push for unity and closer political cohesion.
Another way to go is to retreat from political integration towards what the EU used to be,
primarily a trading organization, i.e. the kind of looser organisation that large sections of the
Leave camp in Britain have always wanted. So, which way will the EU go?
 What must the EU do to prevent other countries following Britain through the door marked
“Exit”? Should it become more democratic, less bureaucratic, less costly? And if so, how?
How can it take the wind out of the sails of populist anti-EU movements?
Finally, there is another country whose government will be closely watching the negotiations
between Britain and the EU as they unfold, and that is Norway. Brexit means that the small
European countries outside the EU have suddenly been joined by the world’s fifth largest
economy. There are going to be some big changes.
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TASKS
1.
Combine the sentence bits in the left-hand column with the bits in the right-hand column
so that the final sentences are grammatically correct:
A
Had Jeremy Corbyn campaigned more
1
effectively
B
If David Cameron had waited another
referendum on Scottish independence.
2
two years
C
Should the negotiations fail to satisfy
Theresa May herself supported the
3
Many Remain supporters feel that the
4
The warnings about the economic
5
but has accepted the result of the
referendum.
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consequences of a Leave vote
2.
obviously had less clout than Gove’s and
Farage’s message.
Leave campaign was so misleading
F
he might have attracted more Labour
supporters to vote for Remain.
Remain camp
E
that a second referendum ought to be
held.
Nicola Sturgeon
D
she will almost certainly demand a new
the result of the referendum might have
been different.
Here are eight statements. Decide, in each case, whether they belong to someone
supporting Remain or someone supporting Leave. Explain your decisions.
a)
Unity brings security and peace! Look at the last 100 years of history!
b)
Rules and regulations are made without us being able to influence them.
c)
We can’t take any more in. There’s no more room.
d)
The other side exaggerates the figures. Switzerland and Norway have higher numbers of
EU immigrants per head of population than the UK does, and they are not even EU
member countries!
e)
Don’t listen to bankers and businessmen. Look what a mess they made in 2008!
f)
They waste so much money. Each month they move from Brussels to Strasbourg for a
week. Think what that costs!
h)
Don’t pull up the drawbridge! Don’t look inwards! Look outwards! Share the best of our
culture with the best of other cultures!
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3.
Place these politicians under the correct party headings:
David Cameron, Nigel Farage, Theresa May, Nicola Sturgeon,
Jeremy Corbyn, Boris Johnson
Conservative
4.
Labour
Ukip
SNP
In the UK, you can bet on practically anything. When was it best to put money on Brexit
winning? These “bookies’ odds” are based on public opinion polls. How would you
compare them with what actually happened?
5.
In the referendum for Scotland’s independence in September 2014, the voting age was
lowered to 16. Turnout was 84.6%. The House of Commons voted against this age limit
for the EU referendum (Labour, SNP and Liberal Democrats voted for, Conservatives
against). From what you have read in our article, what impact do you think a lowering of
the voting-age might have had on the result of the referendum of 23 June? What is your
evidence?
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6.
Look at the front pages of the Sun and the Daily Mail shown in the article. Explain the
headlines that are related to the referendum. How do the newspapers try to catch their
readers’ attention?
7.
Find out!
(a)
Who did Theresa May appoint as foreign minister, and why this was a bit of a surprise?
(b)
The result of the leadership contest in the Labour party wil probably be known towards
the end of September 2016. Find out the latest developments.
(c)
What is today’s rate of exchange of the pound against the euro? How does this compare
with what it was before 23 June?
8.
Many people wonder why areas that receive substantial EU funding voted for Leave. Try
to find an explanation for this apparent paradox from this article in the Guardian:
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2016/jun/25/view-wales-town-showered-eucash-votes-leave-ebbw-vale
9.
Compare the referendum results for London with the 2015 general election results for
London. Do you see any interesting patterns from your comparison? The statement
“London voted for Remain” is an oversimplification. Is it possible to point to parts of
London that voted Leave on 23 June 2016? Can you draw any conclusions from the
pattern of voting in London in the referendum?
These websites might help you (you will need to scroll some of them down a bit):
2015 election: http://www.bbc.com/news/election-2015-32624405
http://www.cityam.com/215415/general-election-2015-results-map-how-many-seatsdid-conservatives-and-labour-win-london-and
2016 Referendum: http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36612916
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/ng-interactive/2016/jun/23/eu-referendumlive-results-and-analysis
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