Result Update February 8, 2017 Jubilant Life Sciences (JUBLIF) Rating matrix Rating Target Target Period Potential Upside : : : : Buy | 810 12-15 months 15% Margins miss but radiopharma outlook solid… What’s Changed? Target EPS FY17E EPS FY18E EPS FY19E Rating Changed from | 795 to | 810 Changed from | 43.9 to | 37.4 Changed from | 53.8 to | 53.9 Changed from | 66.3 to | 67.5 Unchanged Quarterly Performance Revenue EBITDA EBITDA (%) Adj. Net Profit Q3FY17 1,491.6 331.8 22.2 119.4 Q3FY16 1,400.6 305.8 21.8 121.8 YoY (%) Q2FY17 QoQ (%) 6.5 1,419.3 5.1 8.5 340.3 -2.5 41 bps 24.0 -173 bps -2.0 144.6 -17.4 FY16 5802.3 1277.8 431.5 27.1 26.0 FY17E 5941.1 1419.7 596.5 37.4 37.4 FY18E 6678.2 1619.4 858.9 53.9 53.9 FY19E 7520.3 1869.5 1075.6 67.5 67.5 FY16 26.0 29.9 12.0 3.9 14.2 12.0 FY17E 18.8 21.6 10.3 3.3 17.3 14.2 FY18E 13.1 15.0 8.6 2.6 20.2 16.2 FY19E 10.4 12.0 6.9 2.1 20.4 18.3 Key Financials (| crore) Revenues EBITDA Net Profit EPS (|) Adjusted EPS (|) Valuation summary PE (x) Target P/E (Diluted) EV/EBITDA (x) Price to book (x) RoNW (%) RoCE (%) Stock data Amount | 11222 crore | 4114 crore | 649 crore | 14686 crore | 765/| 279 | 15.9 crore |1 Particular Market Capitalisation Debt (FY16) Cash (FY16) EV 52 week H/L (|) Equity capital Face value Price performance (%) Jubilant Life Sciences Divi's Labs Aurobindo Pharma 1M 6.1 2.4 2.0 3M 20.1 -39.8 -3.0 | 704 6M 126.5 -36.2 -8.2 1Y 115.3 -32.0 -7.4 Research Analyst Siddhant Khandekar [email protected] Mitesh Shah [email protected] ICICI Securities Ltd | Retail Equity Research • Revenues increased 7% YoY to | 1492 crore (I-direct estimate: | 1534 crore). Pharmaceutical segment grew 15% YoY to | 829 crore (I-direct estimate: | 873 crore) while life science ingredients (LSI) declined 3% YoY to | 663 crore (I-direct estimate: | 640 crore) • EBITDA margins increased 40 bps YoY to 22.2%. However, margins were below I-direct estimate of 25.5%, mainly due to lower-thanexpected EBITDA margins in the LSI segment. EBITDA increased 8% YoY to | 332 crore (I-direct estimates: | 390 crore) • Adjusted net profit declined 3% to | 118 crore (I-direct estimate: | 181 crore) due to lower operational performance, one-off financial cost and higher tax rate Pharmaceuticals business segment getting back to normal The pharmaceuticals business has grown at 7% CAGR in FY12-16 driven by generics and specialty pharma. The margin scenario is returning to normal on the back of generic launches in the US, launches in specialty pharma and successful resolution of two CMO facilities. Recent long term contract in the radiopharma business as well as approval for Rubyfill in the US will strengthen the speciality sub-segment growth, which is likely to grow at 20% CAGR in FY16-19E to | 2559 crore on the back of strong growth in radiopharma business followed by CMO. However, steep price erosion in the US is likely to impact near term generic segment growth. Overall, we expect pharma segment to grow at 15% CAGR in FY16-19E to | 4593 crore. We also expect margin expansion in the pharma space from 29.1% in FY16 to 32% by FY19E due to an improved product mix. LSI segment mostly commoditised but offers stable returns Life science ingredients (LSI) cater to more routine customers with committed requirements. Due to the commodity nature, margins in this segment are around 14-17%. The business has grown at 6% CAGR in FY12-16. Of late, the company has adopted a calibrated approach. Hence, the focus will shift to profitable products and defocus on less lucrative/loss making sub-segments. We expect LSI to grow mere 1% CAGR in FY16-19E to | 2820 crore. However, EBITDA margins are likely to remain healthy at ~16%. Debt no more a fear factor In its pursuit to build capacity and create multiple revenue heads, the debt situation had complicated over the years. With an improvement in operational performance, the free cash flow (FCF) situation has improved markedly. As the capex cycle moderates in the medium term, the company expects to utilise maximum FCF for debt repayment. We expect the company’s net D/E ratio to further go down to 0.3x by FY19E from 1.4x in FY16 and debt/EBITDA ratio to 1.5x from 3.5x in FY16. Margin accretive businesses on faster track; maintain BUY Despite the miss in EBITDA margins in Q3, we continue to expect margin expansion through FY19 on the back of the tilt of product mix towards margin accretive businesses, especially radiopharma and CMO. For radiopharma, we expect contribution to the overall revenues to improve from 12% in FY16 to 19% in FY19E. As far as LSI is concerned, we expect product rationalisation exercise to persist. With improved visibility led by an improvement in product approvals and a better segment mix we expect continuous improvement in free cash flow generation. We have ascribed a target price of | 810 based on 12x FY19E EPS of | 68.2. Variance analysis Q3FY17 1,491.6 Q3FY17E 1,533.5 Q3FY16 1,400.6 Q2FY17 1,419.3 Raw Material Expenses 523.0 490.7 515.6 489.2 1.4 6.9 Employee Expenses Other Expenditure 309.2 244.9 322.0 225.4 281.7 210.9 301.4 211.2 9.7 16.1 2.6 15.9 82.8 1,159.8 331.8 22.2 104.9 1,143.1 390.4 25.5 86.6 1,094.8 305.8 21.8 77.2 1,079.0 340.3 24.0 98.2 72.7 5.1 -0.4 166.5 48.0 28.8 118.5 -1.3 80.0 72.0 3.0 0.0 241.4 60.4 25.0 181.1 0.0 88.6 74.7 2.9 0.2 145.2 23.6 16.2 121.6 0.0 80.0 72.0 4.9 -0.2 193.4 49.7 25.7 143.7 -1.1 Revenue Power cost Total Expenditure EBITDA EBITDA (%) Interest Depreciation Other income Exceptional Items PBT after Exceptional Items Tax Tax Rate (%) PAT before MI MI YoY (%) QoQ (%) 6.5 5.1 -4.4 7.2 5.9 7.5 8.5 -2.5 41 bps -173 bps 10.8 -2.7 79.6 PL 14.7 103.5 22.8 0.9 4.1 NA -13.9 -3.5 -2.6 0.0 -17.5 NA Adj. Net Profit Key Metrics Pharmaceuticals 119.4 181.1 121.8 144.6 -2.0 -17.4 829.0 873.4 718.4 807.0 15.4 2.7 Life Science Ingredients 663.0 640.0 683.0 613.0 -2.9 8.2 Comments YoY growth mainly due to 15% growth in pharmaceutical business to | 829 crore, which was partly offset by 3% decline in LSI segment YoY improvement of 175 bps in gross margins to 64.9% mainly due to better product mix Pharma business margins improved 140 bps YoY to 31.5% while LSI business margins improved 70 bps to 14.9%. Miss vis-à-vis I-direct estimates was mainly due to lower-than-expected LSI business margins Included | 27 crore of one-off debt replacement cost Lower growth vis-à-vis EBITDA mainly due to one-off financial cost and higher tax rate. Miss vis-à-vis I-direct estimates was mainly due to lower than expected operational performance, one-off financial cost and higher tax rate YoY growth was mainly due to 26% growth in specialty segment (56% of pharmaceutical sales), which was partly offset by mere 3% growth in generics segment. Miss vis-à-vis I-direct estimate was mainly due to higher-thanexpected price erosion in the US 17% YoY decline in international business was largely offset by 10% growth in domestic business Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research Change in estimates (| Crore) Revenue Old 6,026.3 FY17E New % Change 5,941.1 -1.4 Old 6,774.4 FY18E New % Change 6,678.2 -1.4 EBITDA EBITDA Margin (%) 1,530.7 25.4 1,419.7 23.9 -7.3 -150 bps 1,726.7 25.5 1,619.4 24.2 -6.2 -125 bps 688.4 43.2 596.5 37.4 -13.3 -13.3 857.3 53.8 858.9 53.9 0.2 0.2 PAT EPS (|) Changed mainly due to higher-than-expected price erosion in the US and lower LSI margin estimates In FY17, delta vis-a-vis EBITDA due to one-off financial charges in Q3FY17. In FY18 delta vis-à-vis EBITDA mainly due to reduction in Interest expenses Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research Assumptions Pharmaceuticals Life Science Ingredients FY15 2,682.0 3,144.2 FY16 3,054.8 2,747.5 Current FY17E FY18E 3,370.3 3,897.4 2,557.7 2,685.5 Earlier FY17E FY18E 3,516.6 4,057.3 2,471.4 2,597.5 Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research ICICI Securities Ltd | Retail Equity Research Page 2 Company Analysis Incorporated in 1978, Jubilant Life Sciences (JLS; formerly Jubilant Organosys), is a mid-sized integrated chemicals turned pharmaceuticals player. It started as a full fledged chemical company by entering the vinyl acetate monomer (VAM) business in 1983. Broadly, the company operates through two business segments - pharmaceuticals (46% of the turnover) and life science ingredients (54% of turnover). The pharmaceuticals segment consists of sub segments like 1) Generics- APIs and formulations, 2) specialty pharma - radio pharma, allergy therapy products and contract manufacturing (CMO) of sterile injectables, 3) drug discovery and development solutions. EBITDA margins in the pharmaceuticals segment are normally much higher due to the presence of formulations and specialty pharma. The LSI segment consists of sub segments such as 1) advanced intermediates and specialty ingredients, 2) nutrition products and 3) life science chemicals. This segment caters to more routine customers with committed requirements. Because of the commodity nature, margins in this segment are relatively low. Overall, we expect revenues to grow at a CAGR of 9% in FY16-19E to | 7520 crore. The main drivers will by specialty pharma, CMO and nutrition products. Exhibit 1: Revenues to grow at CAGR of 9% in FY16-19E 8000 6.2% CAGR (| crore) 6000 5163.7 5803.4 5826.3 FY14 FY15 5802.3 9.0% CAGR 6678.2 5941.1 7520.3 FY17E FY19E 4303.1 4000 2000 0 FY12 FY13 FY16 FY18E Revenues Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research Pharmaceuticals business has grown at a CAGR of 6% in FY12-16 driven by generics and specialty pharma. Pricing pressure in the drug discovery business and some formulations in the US have put consistent pressure on the EBITDA margins of the pharma business. Also, expenses at the US-based Spoken facility to address the USFDA warning letter and the subsequent postponement of shipment have led to a further deterioration in financials. However, the margin scenario is returning to normal on the back of generic launches in US, launches in specialty pharma and successful resolution of two CMO facilities. We expect the pharma segment to grow at a CAGR of 15% to | 4793 crore in FY16-19E mainly on account of robust growth in the speciality segments. ICICI Securities Ltd | Retail Equity Research Page 3 Exhibit 2: Pharma segment to grow at CAGR of 15% in FY16-19E 5000 Pharma segment revenue analysis (FY16) Specialty Pharma 43% Formulations 23% 4000 (| crore) Drug Discovery APIs CMO 3% 16% 15% 14.6% CAGR 3897.4 7% CAGR 2957.6 3000 2727.8 2682.0 FY14 FY15 3054.8 4593.2 3370.3 2175.1 2000 1000 0 Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research FY12 FY13 FY16 FY16 FY18E FY19E Pharmaceuticals Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research Jubilant Life sciences (Jubilant) through one of its units Jubilant DraxImage Inc. Montreal Canada, has received USFDA 505 (b) (2) approval (new drug application) of Rubyfill (Rubidium 82 generator and elution system). Rubyfill is used for nuclear cardiology diagnostic PET (positron emission tomography) procedure to evaluate regional myocardial perfusion in adult patients with suspected or existing coronary artery disease. The product is expected to be launched in Q3FY17. As per management estimates, the current US market size is US$76 million and has the potential to grow to US$250 million annually in the next five years. Currently, Italy based Bracco Diagnostics is selling Rubidium 82 in the US under Cardiogen-82 brand. Radiopharma segment (23% of pharma business) grew 44% in FY12-16 to | 713 crore. Jubilant is the only listed Indian company, which has strong exposure in the niche radiopharma segment. We believe Rubyfill 505 (b) (2) approval would be a key milestone for the company in the US. In the US, we expect the product to contribute US$7-10 million of revenues in FY18, which is likely to grow to US$25-35 million over the next five years. Apart from the US, the company has received approvals in Germany, Switzerland and Canada. Jubilant has also recently signed long term contracts with distribution networks in the US to supply all approved radiopharma products over 39 months. The company has seven approved products in the US and two pending approvals. We expect this segment to grow at 25% CAGR in FY16-19E to | 1386 crore. ICICI Securities Ltd | Retail Equity Research Page 4 Exhibit 3: Radiopharma segment to grow at CAGR of 25% 1600.0 1400.0 1200.0 20% 1000.0 800.0 400.0 200.0 712.9 17% 508.9 600.0 23% 24% 819.8 35% 1385.5 30% 30% 27% 1065.8 25% 20% 15% 524.6 10% 238.09% 165.98% 5% 0% 0.0 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 Radiopharma FY16 FY17E FY18E FY19E Radiopharma as a % of total Pharma Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research Life science ingredients (LSI) cater to more routine customers with committed requirements. Because of the commodity nature, margins in this segment are around 15-16%. The business has grown at a CAGR of 7.7% in FY11-16. Of late, the company has adopted a calibrated approach. Hence, the focus will shift to profitable products and defocus on less lucrative/loss making sub-segments. We expect LSI to grow at a CAGR of 1% in FY16-19E to | 2820 crore. LSI segment revenue analysis (FY16) Exhibit 4: LSI segment to grow at CAGR of 1% 4000 3076.0 3000 (| crore) Speciality intermediates 25% Life Science Chemicals Nutritionals 64% 11% 3144.2 2747.5 2503.0 2557.7 2685.5 FY16 FY18E 2819.8 2103.0 2000 1000 Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research 0 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY19E Life Science Ingredients Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research ICICI Securities Ltd | Retail Equity Research Page 5 Exhibit 5: EBITDA to see improvement 2000 1500 (| crore) 30 1869.5 20.3 873.5 1000 22.0 1277.8 20.0 1030.5 1007.6 17.4 1619.4 24.2 23.9 1419.7 24.9 25 20 15 689.311.8 10 500 5 0 0 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 EBITDA FY17E FY18E FY19E EBITDA Margins (%) Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research (| crore) Exhibit 6: Improvement in operating margins to improve net profit 1200 1100 1000 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 -100 -200 1075.6 35.6% CAGR 858.9 96.9% CAGR 596.5 152.7 109.0 FY13 FY14 14.6 FY12 431.5 FY15 -57.8 FY16 FY17E FY18E FY19E Net Profit Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research Exhibit 7: Trends in return ratios 28 24 20 16 (%) 12 8 17.3 15.6 10.2 14.2 15.1 11.5 12.3 9.7 14.2 18.3 20.4 16.2 5.8 4 0 -4 12.0 20.2 FY12 FY13 FY14 -8 -0.4 FY15 FY16 RoCE (%) FY17E FY18E FY19E RONW (%) Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research ICICI Securities Ltd | Retail Equity Research Page 6 Exhibit 8: Trends in quarterly financials (| crore) Q3FY14 Net Sales 1209.6 Other Operating Income 12.6 Total Operating Income 1222.2 Raw Material Expenses 456.1 % of revenues 37.3 Gross Profit 766.1 Gross Margins (%) 62.7 Power cost 85.5 % to revenues 7.0 Employee Expenses 244.0 % to revenues 20.0 Selling & Admin expenses 161.2 % to revenues 13.2 Total Expenditure 946.9 % to revenues 77.5 EBITDA 275.4 EBITDA Margins (%) 22.5 Depreciation 62.0 Interest 70.1 Other Income 3.5 PBT before EO 146.7 Less: Exceptional Items 47.1 PBT after EO 193.8 Total Tax 35.3 Tax Rate (%) 18.2 PAT 158.5 Minority Interest 6.5 Net Profit 152.0 EPS (|) 9.5 Q4FY14 1551.6 10.7 1562.3 694.9 44.5 867.4 55.5 96.4 6.2 283.7 18.2 241.5 15.5 1316.5 84.3 245.8 15.7 68.7 75.0 5.0 107.2 36.4 143.6 25.1 17.5 118.5 9.6 109.0 6.8 Q1FY15 1460.5 12.6 1473.1 719.2 48.8 753.9 51.2 98.9 6.7 272.2 18.5 237.2 16.1 1327.6 90.1 145.5 9.9 73.1 77.9 4.2 -1.3 -18.7 -20.0 25.1 -125.6 -45.0 4.6 -49.6 -3.1 Q2FY15 1362.1 9.0 1371.1 606.3 44.2 764.8 55.8 100.1 7.3 271.2 19.8 282.6 20.6 1260.1 91.9 111.0 8.1 69.2 96.0 26.4 -27.8 4.6 -23.1 25.1 -108.4 -48.2 6.5 -54.6 -3.4 Q3FY15 1430.3 15.2 1445.5 622.5 43.1 823.0 56.9 98.9 6.8 271.7 18.8 267.0 18.5 1260.2 87.2 185.3 12.8 79.5 96.1 6.1 15.8 -0.2 15.6 25.1 160.6 -9.5 6.5 -16.0 -1.0 Q4FY15 1523.3 13.3 1536.5 713.7 46.4 822.9 53.6 95.2 6.2 275.1 17.9 205.2 13.4 1289.1 83.9 247.4 16.1 66.2 85.4 5.8 101.7 -33.9 67.8 25.1 37.0 42.7 0.0 42.7 2.7 Q1FY16 1438.4 20.2 1458.6 537.0 36.8 921.6 63.2 102.1 7.0 272.7 18.7 208.8 14.3 1120.6 76.8 337.9 23.2 70.2 91.2 3.8 180.4 0.4 180.7 25.1 13.9 155.7 -1.6 157.3 9.9 Q2FY16 1444.7 18.3 1463.1 530.3 36.2 932.7 63.8 99.3 6.8 285.1 19.5 227.7 15.6 1142.5 78.1 320.6 21.9 75.1 97.4 4.5 152.5 2.3 154.8 25.1 16.2 129.8 0.0 129.8 8.1 Q3FY16 1337.0 42.4 1379.5 515.6 37.4 863.9 62.6 86.6 6.3 281.7 20.4 210.9 15.3 1094.8 79.4 284.7 20.6 74.7 88.6 2.9 124.2 -0.2 124.1 25.1 20.2 99.0 0.0 99.0 6.2 Q4FY16 1503.0 21.0 1524.0 568.5 37.3 955.5 62.7 78.7 5.2 288.4 18.9 260.5 17.1 1196.1 78.5 327.9 21.5 126.0 88.1 2.5 116.2 9.1 125.3 25.1 20.0 100.3 -0.4 100.7 6.3 Q1FY17 1420.0 18.6 1438.6 464.1 32.3 974.4 67.7 80.6 5.6 295.9 20.6 210.7 14.6 1051.4 73.1 387.2 26.9 71.5 82.8 4.3 237.2 0.1 237.3 25.1 10.6 212.2 2.4 209.8 13.2 Q2FY17 1420.0 25.8 1445.8 489.2 33.8 956.7 66.2 77.2 5.3 301.4 20.8 211.2 14.6 1079.0 74.6 366.8 25.4 72.0 80.0 4.9 219.7 0.2 219.9 25.1 11.4 194.8 -1.1 195.9 12.3 Q3FY17 1472.2 19.4 1491.6 523.0 35.1 968.6 64.9 82.8 5.6 309.2 20.7 244.9 16.4 1159.8 77.8 331.8 22.2 72.7 98.2 5.1 166.1 0.4 166.5 25.1 15.1 141.4 -1.3 142.7 9.0 YoY (%) 10.1 -54.2 8.1 1.4 -231 bps 12.1 231 bps -4.4 -73 bps 9.7 30 bps 16.1 113 bps 5.9 -161 bps 16.6 161 bps -2.7 10.8 79.6 33.7 34.2 0.0 -514.7 42.8 NA 44.2 Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research SWOT Analysis Strengths - Vertically integrated model. Proven capabilities in the CRAMS space Weakness - Too many revenue heads, struggling to cope up with margin pressure and above all a huge debt burden. Commoditised nature of the LSI segment Opportunities - The US generics space. Incremental CRAMS orders Threats - Leverage ratios are at alarming levels. Increased USFDA scrutiny across the globe regarding cGMP issues, pricing pressure due to client consolidation in the US, pricing probe by the Department of Justice (DoJ) in the US, proposed tightening by the new regime by adapting to the bidding process and imposition of border adjustment tax on imported drugs in the US. The LSI business is witnessing headwinds in China Conference call highlights • • • ICICI Securities Ltd | Retail Equity Research The company has filed 85 ANDAs in the US till date of which 27 are pending approvals. The company plans to file eight ANDAs in FY17 including niche and 505(b)(2) filings in Radiopharma business Rubyfill is on track for a US launch in Q4FY17 Cumulatively filed 894 filings across geographies (812: oral dosage and 82: sterile products including JDI), of which 696 filings have been approved (622: oral dosage and 74: sterile products) and rest are pending Page 7 • • • • • • • • • • It has filed nine products in the US radiopharmaceuticals market, out of which seven have been approved The company has signed long term contracts in radiopharmaceuticals business with distribution networks in the US to supply products over a period of 39 months effective from January 2017 The USFDA has successfully completed inspection at CMO Montreal and Radiopharmaceuticals facilities On the lifesciences segment front, the company has initiated price increase of up to 15% for Beta Picoline, 3-Cyanopyridine and Vitamin B3 The company successfully issued secured rated listed redeemable NCDs of | 495 crore for cash at par on a private placement basis. The net proceeds of the NCDs shall be mainly used for refinancing of existing debt The company has been working on MIBG 505(b) (2) for the past 18 months. It is currently in Phase II trial in the US. The USFDA granted orphan drugs status to this drug The company has seven NDAs in the pipeline at various stages, of which two are under review by USFDA R&D spend in Q3FY17 was | 67 crore (8.5% of pharmaceutical segment). R&D charged to P&L was | 36 crore. It expects to maintain current run rate of R&D spending (8% of sales), going forward The 9MFY17 capex for the company was at | 206 crore and has guided for overall capex of | 300 crore in FY17 In the LSI segment, the company has initiated retrofitting and capacity expansion for certain products. It plans to introduce new products in the specialty intermediates business in FY18 Exhibit 9: Product pipeline as of Q3FY17 Region US Canada Europe ROW Total Filings 73 22 99 618 789 Oral Solids Approved 49 19 96 458 596 Pending 24 3 3 160 193 Filings 12 14 12 44 82 Sterile Products Approved 9 14 11 40 73 Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research ICICI Securities Ltd | Retail Equity Research Page 8 Pending 3 0 1 4 9 Valuation Despite the miss in EBITDA margins in Q3, we continue to expect margin expansion through FY19 on the back of a tilt of the product mix towards margin accretive businesses, especially radiopharma and CMO. For radiopharma, we expect contribution to the overall revenues to improve from 12% in FY16 to 19% in FY19E. As far as LSI is concerned, we expect product rationalisation exercise to persist. With improved visibility led by an improvement in product approvals and better segment mix we expect a continuous improvement in free cash flow generation. We have ascribed a target price of | 810 based on 12x FY19E EPS of | 68.2. 900 800 700 600 500 Price 14.2x 9.5x 6.7x Feb-17 Aug-16 Feb-16 Aug-15 Feb-15 Aug-14 Feb-14 Aug-13 Feb-13 Feb-12 12.3x Aug-12 Aug-11 Feb-11 Feb-10 Aug-10 Aug-09 Feb-09 Aug-08 Feb-08 Aug-07 400 300 200 100 0 Feb-07 (|) Exhibit 10: One year forward PE 2.0x Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research Exhibit 11: One year forward PE of company vs. CNX Pharma 45 49% Discount 40 35 (x) 30 25 20 15 10 5 Jubilant Feb-17 Aug-16 Feb-16 Aug-15 Feb-15 Aug-14 Feb-14 Aug-13 Feb-13 Aug-12 Feb-12 Aug-11 Feb-11 Feb-10 Aug-10 Aug-09 Feb-09 Aug-08 Feb-08 Feb-07 Aug-07 0 CNX Pharma [ Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research Exhibit 12: Valuation FY16 FY17E FY18E FY19E Revenues (| crore) 5802 5941 6678 7520 Growth (%) -0.4 2.4 12.4 12.6 Adj. EPS (|) 26.0 37.4 53.9 67.5 Growth (%) LP 38.2 44.0 25.2 P/E EV/EBITDA (x) (X) 26.0 12.0 18.8 10.3 13.1 8.6 10.4 6.9 RoNW (%) 14.2 17.3 20.2 20.4 Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research ICICI Securities Ltd | Retail Equity Research Page 9 RoCE (%) 12.0 14.2 16.2 18.3 Recommendation history vs. Consensus 900 80.0 800 70.0 700 60.0 50.0 500 40.0 400 (%) (|) 600 30.0 300 200 20.0 100 10.0 0 0.0 Oct-14 Dec-14 Mar-15 Price May-15 Jul-15 Oct-15 Idirect target Dec-15 Mar-16 Consensus Target Mean May-16 Aug-16 Oct-16 % Consensus with BUY Source: Reuters, ICICIdirect.com Research Key events Date May-11 Event Repays FCCB debt worth US$202 million including yield to maturity of US$60 million Feb-13 Receives warning letter from USFDA for its Montreal facility Jul-13 China imposes anti dumping duty margin of 24.6% to 57.4% for Pyridine imported from India Dec-13 USFDA issues warning letter for Spokane facility Feb-14 Jubilant receives establishment inspection report from USFDA for its Montreal facility Mar-14 Sells hospitals business to Narayana Health for | 45 crore May-14 IFC grants loan of US$200 million to company’s wholly-owned subsidiary Jubilant Pharma Jun-15 US based Spokane facility (CMO) receives USFDA clearance Oct-16 Receives USFDA 505 (b)(2) approval (new drug application) of Rubyfill Rubidium 82 Generator and Elution System Jan-17 Signs long term contracts with distribution networks in the US for supply of approved radiopharma products over a period of 39 months Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research Top 10 Shareholders Rank 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Name Jubilant Stock Holding Pvt. Ltd. Jubilant Capital Pvt. Ltd. Jubilant Securities Pvt. Ltd. East Bridge Capital Management L.P. Vam Holdings, Ltd. Samena Capital Management LLP Motilal Oswal Asset Management Company Ltd. Jubilant Employees Welfare Trust Nikita Resources Pvt. Ltd. Citigroup Inc Shareholding Pattern Latest Filing date 30-Sep-16 30-Sep-16 30-Sep-16 30-Sep-16 30-Sep-16 30-Sep-16 31-Dec-16 15-Dec-16 30-Sep-16 30-Sep-16 % O/S Position (m) Change (m) 18.6 29.7m 0.0m 13.2 21.0m 0.0m 11.7 18.7m 0.0m 4.6 7.4m 1.1m 3.6 5.7m 0.0m 3.0 4.8m 0.0m 2.9 4.7m 0.0m 2.3 3.6m -0.2m 2.2 3.5m 0.0m 2.0 3.1m 0.0m (in %) Promoter Others Dec-15 Mar-16 Jun-16 Sep-16 Dec-16 54.0 54.0 54.0 54.0 54.0 46.0 46.0 46.0 46.0 46.0 Source: Reuters, ICICIdirect.com Research Recent Activity Buys Investor name East Bridge Capital Management L.P. Sankaraiah (R.) Bang (Shyamsundar) J.P. Morgan Asset Management (Hong Kong) Ltd. Agarwal (Ashutosh) Value ($) 10.2m 0.8m 0.4m 0.4m 0.2m Shares 1.1m 0.1m 0.1m 0.0m 0.0m Sells Investor name RAM Active Investments S.A. Norges Bank Investment Management (NBIM) Jubilant Employees Welfare Trust Acadian Asset Management LLC Dimensional Fund Advisors, L.P. Value ($) -2.5m -3.3m -1.5m -0.6m -0.7m Shares -0.5m -0.4m -0.2m -0.1m -0.1m Source: Reuters, ICICIdirect.com Research ICICI Securities Ltd | Retail Equity Research Page 10 Financial summary Profit and loss statement | Crore (Year-end March) FY16 Revenues 5,802.3 Growth (%) -0.4 Raw Material Expenses 2,126.3 Employee Expenses 1,126.7 Selling & Admin expenses 904.8 Power cost 366.7 Total Operating Expenditure 4,524.5 EBITDA 1,277.8 Growth (%) 85.4 Depreciation 346.0 Interest 378.6 Other Income 13.6 PBT before EO 566.9 Less: Exceptional Items -17.5 Total Tax 152.9 Minority Interest 0.0 PAT 431.5 Growth (%) LP EPS 27.1 Adjusted PAT 414.0 EPS (Adjusted) 26.0 Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research FY17E 5,941.1 2.4 2,041.0 1,244.7 898.4 337.3 4,521.4 1,419.7 11.1 288.9 329.8 19.9 820.8 -0.6 224.9 0.0 596.5 38.2 37.4 595.9 37.4 FY18E 6,678.2 12.4 2,313.5 1,402.4 942.1 400.7 5,058.8 1,619.4 14.1 297.6 204.8 13.2 1,130.2 0.0 271.2 0.0 858.9 44.0 53.9 858.9 53.9 FY17E 15.9 3,434.3 3,450.2 4,114.0 360.7 0.0 163.2 8,088.0 5,559.4 2,351.0 3,208.4 45.1 3,253.5 2,442.5 36.1 1,254.0 834.2 408.4 649.5 63.5 3,209.5 714.4 209.4 339.4 1,263.2 1,946.3 0.0 409.5 8,088.0 FY18E 15.9 4,237.3 4,253.2 3,414.0 401.4 0.0 175.2 8,243.8 5,659.4 2,547.7 3,111.7 45.1 3,156.8 2,441.7 36.1 1,398.8 930.4 408.4 766.4 63.5 3,567.4 796.8 209.4 443.4 1,449.6 2,117.7 0.0 491.4 8,243.8 Balance sheet (Year-end March) Equity Capital Reserve and Surplus Total Shareholders funds Total Debt Deferred Tax Liability Minority Interest Other Non CL & LT Provisions Total Liabilities Gross Block - Fixed Assets Accumulated Depreciation Net Block Capital WIP Total Fixed Assets Total Intangible Assets Investments Inventory Debtors Loans and Advances Cash Other current Assets Total Current Assets Creditors Provisions Other Current Liabilities Total Current Liabilities Net Current Assets Deferred Tax Assets LT L & A, Other Non CA Application of Funds FY19E 7,520.3 12.6 2,556.9 1,616.9 1,063.4 413.6 5,650.8 1,869.5 15.4 306.3 162.8 14.8 1,415.2 0.0 339.6 0.0 1,075.6 25.2 67.5 1,075.6 67.5 | Crore FY16 15.9 2,893.6 2,909.6 4,514.0 326.9 0.0 152.1 7,902.6 5,259.4 2,157.8 3,101.7 145.1 3,246.7 2,438.2 36.1 1,216.1 929.7 362.6 344.5 48.5 2,901.3 599.6 209.4 235.4 1,044.5 1,856.9 0.0 324.6 7,902.6 Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research FY19E 15.9 5,256.9 5,272.8 2,714.0 452.3 0.0 188.2 8,627.4 5,759.4 2,747.9 3,011.5 45.1 3,056.6 2,435.6 36.1 1,575.1 1,047.7 408.4 1,068.7 63.5 4,163.5 897.3 209.4 547.4 1,654.1 2,509.4 0.0 589.7 8,627.4 Cash flow statement (Year-end March) Profit/(Loss) after taxation Add: Depreciation (Inc)/dec in Current Assets Inc/(dec) in CL and Provisions CF from operating activities (Purchase)/Sale of FA Deferred Tax Liability Minority Interest Investments Other Investing Activities CF from investing activities Inc/(Dec) in Equity Capital Proceeds/(Repayment) of/from Lo Dividend & Dividend tax Others CF from financing activities | Crore FY16 431.5 346.0 -223.3 2.5 556.7 -496.7 88.9 0.0 3.4 -96.8 -501.3 0.0 397.8 -57.5 (97.2) 243.1 FY17E 596.5 288.9 -3.2 218.7 1,101.0 -300.0 33.7 0.0 0.0 -60.7 -327.0 0.0 -277.8 -55.9 54.2 -279.6 FY18E 858.9 297.6 -241.0 186.4 1,102.0 -200.0 40.7 0.0 0.0 -180.7 -340.0 0.0 -400.0 -55.9 0.0 -455.9 FY19E 1,075.6 306.3 -293.7 204.5 1,292.6 -200.0 50.9 0.0 0.0 -80.1 -229.2 0.0 -700.0 -55.9 0.0 -755.9 Net Cash flow 298.5 Opening Cash 394.3 Closing Cash 692.8 Free Cash Flow 60.0 Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research 494.4 344.5 838.9 801.0 306.0 649.5 955.5 902.0 307.5 766.4 1,073.9 1,092.6 FY16 FY17E FY18E FY19E 27.1 26.0 182.6 3.6 21.6 37.4 37.4 216.6 3.5 40.8 53.9 53.9 267.0 3.5 48.1 67.5 67.5 331.0 3.5 67.1 63.4 22.0 7.1 76.5 58.5 37.7 0.7 43.6 65.6 23.9 10.0 77.0 51.2 43.9 0.7 77.5 65.4 24.2 12.9 76.4 50.9 43.6 0.8 68.0 66.0 24.9 14.3 76.4 50.9 43.6 0.9 69.1 14.2 12.0 12.3 17.3 14.2 15.2 20.2 16.2 17.7 20.4 18.3 20.7 26.0 12.1 2.7 1.9 3.9 18.8 10.4 2.5 1.9 3.3 13.1 8.6 2.1 1.7 2.6 10.4 6.9 1.7 1.5 2.1 1.6 3.5 2.4 1.2 2.9 2.0 0.8 2.1 1.9 0.5 1.5 1.9 Key ratios (Year-end March) Per share data (|) Reported EPS Adjusted EPS BV per share Dividend per share Cash Per Share Operating Ratios (%) Gross Profit Margins EBITDA Margins PAT Margins Inventory days Debtor days Creditor days Asset Turnover EBITDA conversion Rate Return Ratios (%) RoE RoCE RoIC Valuation Ratios (x) P/E EV / EBITDA EV / Net Sales Market Cap / Sales Price to Book Value Solvency Ratios Debt / Equity Debt / EBITDA Current Ratio Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research . ICICI Securities Ltd | Retail Equity Research Page 11 ICICIdirect.com coverage universe (Healthcare) Ajanta Pharma AJAPHA 1744 1,960 Buy 15351.2 45.4 59.7 66.3 75.3 38.4 29.2 26.3 23.2 42.9 39.2 34.9 31.7 34.2 33.1 28.4 25.6 Apollo Hospitals APOHOS 1257 1,440 Buy 17486.7 22.2 21.8 31.4 45.3 56.6 57.6 40.0 27.8 8.2 8.1 10.3 13.3 8.9 8.2 10.7 13.6 Alembic Pharma TP Rating (|) 700 1,100 Buy ALEMPHA 556 615 Hold M Cap (| Cr) PE(x) RoCE (%) RoE (%) FY17E FY18E FY19E FY16 FY17E FY18E FY19E FY16 FY17E FY18E FY19E I-Direct Code Aurobindo Pharma AURPHA CMP (|) EPS (|) FY16 FY17E FY18E FY19E FY16 Company 40964.8 33.9 41.0 48.1 54.9 20.6 17.1 14.6 12.7 23.3 24.3 24.1 24.0 28.1 25.8 23.5 21.5 10489.1 38.2 22.0 24.5 30.6 14.6 25.3 22.7 18.2 51.5 26.0 23.1 24.8 44.9 21.9 20.8 21.9 Biocon BIOCON 1099 1,120 Buy 21970.0 23.1 32.6 34.4 44.2 47.5 33.6 31.9 24.8 9.1 13.0 13.7 16.5 11.4 14.4 13.7 15.4 Cadila Healthcare Cipla CADHEA CIPLA 367 597 380 575 Hold Hold 37607.2 48048.7 15.0 18.5 11.2 18.9 15.1 25.2 18.9 31.9 24.6 32.3 32.7 31.5 24.3 23.7 19.5 18.7 26.7 12.0 14.4 11.1 18.3 14.1 20.9 16.4 28.6 12.5 18.5 11.5 21.1 13.6 22.0 14.9 925 Buy 19538.5 41.8 44.6 51.8 Divi's Lab DIVLAB 736 57.9 17.6 16.5 14.2 12.7 30.7 28.5 28.0 26.5 25.9 23.0 22.2 20.7 Dr Reddy's Labs DRREDD 2974 2,930 Hold 50783.0 141.4 74.5 114.5 154.3 21.0 39.9 26.0 19.3 17.3 7.0 11.5 15.1 20.6 10.0 13.6 15.8 Glenmark Pharma GLEPHA 858 1,155 Buy 27076.6 32.2 63.0 54.4 60.8 26.7 13.6 15.8 14.1 16.2 26.8 20.8 21.9 21.2 29.7 20.6 18.8 Indoco Remedies INDREM 267 315 Buy 2457.7 9.4 8.9 14.2 18.5 28.4 30.1 18.7 14.4 12.9 9.7 14.9 18.1 14.8 12.6 17.4 19.2 Ipca Laboratories IPCLAB 526 605 Buy 6635.0 10.0 15.1 25.4 33.3 52.5 34.9 20.7 15.8 5.7 9.9 12.6 14.8 5.5 7.8 11.9 13.8 Jubilant Life JUBLIF 704 810 Buy 11221.9 26.0 37.4 53.9 67.5 27.1 18.8 13.1 10.4 12.0 14.2 16.2 18.3 14.2 17.3 20.2 20.4 Lupin LUPIN 1468 1,890 Buy 66297.6 50.4 63.9 65.4 83.5 29.1 23.0 22.4 17.6 18.6 19.8 20.0 23.7 20.7 21.5 18.6 19.9 13694.5 Natco Pharma NATPHA 786 750 Buy 8.5 12.8 13.1 15.0 92.5 61.3 60.1 52.3 16.0 19.9 17.5 17.8 11.9 15.6 14.0 14.1 Sun Pharma SUNPHA 670 850 Buy 161145.3 23.4 30.4 32.3 39.1 28.6 22.0 20.7 17.1 18.6 19.8 18.4 19.0 18.0 19.5 17.7 18.2 Syngene Int. SYNINT 526 570 Hold 15.5 16.9 20.5 51.3 36.7 33.7 27.7 13.2 17.8 18.1 20.7 21.0 23.2 20.6 20.4 Torrent Pharma TORPHA 1286 1,475 Buy Unichem Lab UNILAB 277 285 Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research Hold 10520.0 11.1 21754.9 107.8 55.7 62.2 77.6 11.9 23.1 20.7 16.6 46.7 21.0 23.8 26.5 53.8 23.0 21.5 22.3 2513.6 17.5 23.7 22.5 21.0 15.8 11.7 13.8 14.5 16.2 18.9 11.7 11.3 13.3 15.6 12.3 ICICI Securities Ltd | Retail Equity Research 13.2 Page 12 RATING RATIONALE ICICIdirect.com endeavours to provide objective opinions and recommendations. ICICIdirect.com assigns ratings to its stocks according to their notional target price vs. current market price and then categorises them as Strong Buy, Buy, Hold and Sell. The performance horizon is two years unless specified and the notional target price is defined as the analysts' valuation for a stock. Strong Buy: >15%/20% for large caps/midcaps, respectively, with high conviction; Buy: >10%/15% for large caps/midcaps, respectively; Hold: Up to +/-10%; Sell: -10% or more; Pankaj Pandey Head – Research [email protected] ICICIdirect.com Research Desk, ICICI Securities Limited, 1st Floor, Akruti Trade Centre, Road No 7, MIDC, Andheri (East) Mumbai – 400 093 [email protected] ICICI Securities Ltd | Retail Equity Research Page 13 ANALYST CERTIFICATION We /I, Siddhant Khandekar CA-INTER, Mitesh Shah MS (Finance) Research Analysts, authors and the names subscribed to this report, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect our views about the subject issuer(s) or securities. We also certify that no part of our compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation(s) or view(s) in this report. 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Compensation of our Research Analysts is not based on any specific merchant banking, investment banking or brokerage service transactions. ICICI Securities Ltd | Retail Equity Research Page 14
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