A LOW CARBON VISION FOR
GREECE IN 2050
Wina Graus
Eliane Blomen
September 2008
Project number: PECSNL073688
Ecofys Netherlands BV, Utrecht
Commissioned by:
WWF Greece
1
2
Executive summary
This study defines a low carbon vision for Greece in 2050. This vision involves a 60–80% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions in Greece below 1990 levels.
Below is a summary of the study with the main conclusions.
Climate Change is already visible and perceptible also in Greece.
There is a clear warming in the country from the early 1990s (NOA, 2001), which is gradually
strengthened and record-breaking hot summers are an increasingly regular occurrence. Furthermore, the trend of precipitation in Greece is negative both on annual as well as on seasonal
basis (NOA, 2005). Higher average temperatures and structural changes in the frequency and
intensity of rainfall will have consequences for agriculture, fisheries and nature conservation.
In industrialised countries, an emission reduction of at least 60-80% compared to 1990
levels is necessary to stay below a global 2 °C temperature increase.
The average global temperature has already risen by 0.8 °C since the beginning of the Industrial
Revolution (NOAA, 2005). According to recent research (IPCC, 2007, Graßl et al. 2003, Hare
2003), an average global warming of 2°C or above compared to the pre-Industrial Revolution
level would result in dangerous, irreversible impacts; only with a stabilisation at 400 ppm carbon dioxide equivalent (CO2eq) is the probability of exceeding 2°C ‘unlikely’. In order to stay
below this 2°C warming, vast emission reductions are a necessity.
To achieve a 60-80% reduction, the Greek carbon budget is limited to a yearly emission of
between 22 to 44 Mtonne CO2eq in the year 2050.
In 2005, total greenhouse gas emissions in Greece were 139 Mtonne CO2eq. CO2 emissions represent the largest share of greenhouse gases (81%, excluding land use change and forestry or
LUCF), followed by nitrous oxide (N2O) and methane (CH4) emissions, which together account
for 15%. Emissions from HFCs, SF6 and PFCs are relatively small, at a total of 4%. The negative contribution of LUCF (net removal of CO2) is equal to 4% of emissions (139 Mtonne
CO2eq) in 2005.
The largest share of greenhouse gas emissions in Greece results from public power and heat
generation (41%), followed by industry (17%) and road transport (14%, see Figure 1). Agriculture and the residential sector were responsible for 10% and 8% of total emissions in 2005, respectively. Smaller contributors are petroleum refining (3%), waste (2%) and the service sector
(1%).
3
Waste
2%
Services
1%
Other
4%
Petroleum refining
3%
Public power and
heat generation
41%
Residential
8%
Agriculture
10%
Road transport
14%
Industry
17%
Figure 1 Greenhouse gas emissions per sect or in 2005 (UNFCCC, 2007)
In order to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 60-80% in 2050, emissions need to reduce from
the 1990 level of 109 Mtonne CO2eq to 22-44 Mtonne CO2eq/yr in 2050. In terms of greenhouse
gas emissions per capita, a reduction is needed from 11 tonne CO2eq per capita in 1990 to 2 - 4
tonne CO2eq per capita in 2050.
For the purpose of forecasting greenhouse gas emissions in the period 2005-2050 and estimating possible greenhouse gas emission reductions, two scenarios are determined: a reference
scenario that forecasts “business-as-usual” greenhouse gas emissions in Greece and a frozen
efficiency level: a fictive emission level that represents a world where current emission intensities (or efficiencies) are kept constant until 2050. In this way we project the current situation
onto 2050 assuming that only GDP growth would occur and efficiency would not improve.
These are both explained in the box below and in more detail on page 22. .
Reference scenario
A reference scenario is defined for the development of greenhouse gas emissions in
Greece in the period 2005-2050. This reference scenario is based on the 4th National Communication to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate
Change (MEPPPW, 2006) and includes
policies currently implemented for reducing greenhouse gas emissions.
Frozen efficiency level
For the purpose of calculating the total emission reduction potential, a frozen efficiency level is determined. This represents the emission level when the
energy-efficiency of technologies remains the same
as in 2005 and no measures for reducing greenhouse gas emissions are implemented. It is calculated by assuming that emissions grow linear with
forecasted GDP until 2050.
This frozen efficiency level is only a ‘tool’ that we
need due to insufficient detail in the reference scenario and should not be seen as a separate scenario,
merely a hypothetical situation (see page 22).
4
In the reference scenario, emissions increase from 109 Mtonne CO2eq in 1990 to 228
Mtonne CO2eq in 2050. The projected economic growth for Greece used in this study is approximately 3% per year until 2020 and 1.5% per year from 2020 to 2050. With constant
greenhouse gas intensity, emissions will increase to 328 Mtonne CO2eq in 2050 in Greece.
Within the reference scenario emissions grow to 228 Mtonne CO2eq. The reference scenario
takes into account implemented policies for reducing greenhouse gas emissions and an
autonomous greenhouse gas intensity decrease.
With currently available, low-cost technologies (“low hanging fruit”) emissions in Greece
can be reduced to 175 Mtonne CO2eq in 2050 compared to the reference scenario level of
228 Mtonne CO2eq.
In order to achieve this reduction, the greenhouse gas intensity should decrease by 2.3% per
year compared to the frozen efficiency level in which current greenhouse gas intensities stay
constant. Possible measures are included in five emissions reduction ‘wedges’: Industrial efficiency, Hybrid transport, Efficient buildings, Efficient farming, and Efficient energy supply.
With more innovative technologies (“emerging technologies”), emissions can be further
reduced to 36 Mtonne CO2eq in 2050 (reduction of 67% compared to 1990 emissions).
Implementing these measures along with the low hanging fruit measures makes sure that a
greenhouse gas intensity reduction of 5.6% per year is achieved compared to the frozen efficiency level (FEL) in which current GHG intensities remain constant. Measures are included in
five wedges: Emerging industry, Shifting transport, Zero emission buildings, Low greenhouse
gas farming, and Emerging clean power.
The relative contribution of the wedges to total emission reduction in the low carbon vision for
2020 and 2050 is shown in Figure 2. Absolute emission reductions are compared with the 2020
and 2050 frozen efficiency level.
The wedges in the figure refer to:
Wedge 1: “Industrial efficiency”
Wedge 2:”Emerging Industry”
Wedge 3: “Hybrid Transport”
Wedge 4: “Shifting Transport”
Wedge 5: “Efficient Buildings”
Wedge 6: “Zero emission buildings”
Wedge 7: “Efficient farming”
Wedge 8: “Low GHG farming”
Wedge 9: “Efficient energy supply”
Wedge 10: “Emerging clean power”
5
100%
90%
Wedge 10
80%
Wedge 9
70%
Wedge 8
60%
Wedge 7 (incl waste)
Wedge 6
50%
Wedge 5
40%
Wedge 4
30%
Wedge 3
Wedge 2
20%
Wedge 1
10%
0%
2020 % of FEL
2050 % of FEL
Figure 2 Contribution of emission reduction per wedge in comparison t o total emissions in frozen efficiency level (FEL)
For the needed emission reduction (60-80% in comparison to 1990) all possible options
for mitigating greenhouse gas emissions should be implemented from energy-efficiency
improvement to renewable energy sources and carbon capture and storage.
Figure 3 shows the development of greenhouse gas emissions in the low carbon vision, the frozen efficiency level, and in the reference scenario. By implementing all measures the needed
emission reduction can be achieved, while still maintaining the economic growth of 3% per
year until 2020 and 1.5 % per year from 2020-2050.
350
GHG emissions (Mtonne CO2eq)
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
Frozen efficiency level
Reference scenario
Low hanging fruit
60% reduction
80% reduction
Low carbon scenario
2050
Figure 3 Graph sh owing different scenario’s until 2050
6
Table 1 shows the emissions per sector in the low carbon vision in 2050 in comparison to emissions in 1990. The total emission reduction in the low carbon vision is 67% below the 1990
level of 109 Mtonne CO2eq. This emission reduction that can be achieved by the different
measures is based on available literature sources with estimates for emission reduction potentials (see Appendix).
Ta ble 1 Emission reduction in low carbon vision (the measures are not presented in
any kind of or der)
Sector
Emissions (Mt CO2eq)
Emissions
1990
in
2005
2050
Examples of measures
2050
compared
to 1990
Industry
•
Improving energy efficiency and combined heat and
power generation (2% per year energy-efficiency improvement)
•
Material efficiency and increased recycling (1% per
•
Energy efficient emerging technologies
year energy-efficiency improvement)
23
28
13
-41%
(0.5% per
year energy-efficiency improvement)
•
Reducing N2O emissions from nitric acid production
by catalytic reduction by 90%
•
The use of biomass and solar energy reduce emissions
in 2050 by 20%.
Transport
•
Energy-efficient cars and trucks (2.5% per year en-
•
Restrain growth of car traffic per capita from 14,000
•
Reduce road transport by modal shift (10% for pas-
•
Implementation of natural gas buses (10% of fleet in
ergy-efficiency improvement)
km/capita in 2005 to 22,000 km/capita in 2050
16
23
7
-55%
senger cars and 18% freight)
2050) and RES-produced hydrogen buses (30% of
fleet in 2050)
Households
•
Biofuels for 10% of 2050 fuel use (27 PJ)
•
Efficient appliances
•
Improved thermal insulation and building design (2%
•
Zero-energy buildings (1.5% per
•
Use biomass for 15% of heat demand in buildings and
and services
and lighting (2%
energy-
efficiency improvement per year)
6
12
0.4
per year energy-efficiency improvement)
-93%
year energy-
efficiency improvement)
7.5% in 2020.
7
Sector
Emissions (Mt CO2eq)
Emissions
1990
in
2005
2050
Examples of measures
2050
compared
to 1990
Agriculture
•
Energy efficiency improvement (efficient equipment,
tractors, CHP) (2% per year energy-efficiency improvement)
17
15
12
•
Anaerobic digestion of manure; implementation of
•
Reduce CH4 from enteric fermentation by improved
•
Reduce N2O from soils by spreader maintenance, fer-
70% and 80% in 2020 and 2050 respectively
-30%
diets (reduce by 5% in 2020, 19% in 2050)
tilizer free zones, and sub optimal levels of fertilizer
(reduction potential 17% in 2020 and 36% in 2050)
Energy
•
supply
Decrease growth of power generation by energyefficiency measures in end-use sectors (buildings and
industries such as solar and geothermal cooling) (en-
43
58
3
ergy-efficiency improvement 1.7%/year)
-93%
•
Increased use of renewable energy (24 TWh in 2020,
•
CO2 capture and storage (CCS) (only in a viable and
42 TWh in 2050)
secured social and environmental way)
Waste
Total
5
3
1
-82%
109
139
35
-67%
•
Reduced unmanaged landfill sites
•
Decrease organic waste land fields
•
Increase recycling
Figure 4 shows the relative contributions of the different wedges to the total emission reduction
in the low carbon vision.
8
350
GHG emissions (Mtonne CO2eq)
300
250
200
Wedge 1
Wedge 2
Wedge 3
Wedge 4
Wedge 5
Wedge 6
Wedge 7
Wedge 8
Wedge 9
Wedge 10
Frozen Technology
150
100
50
Low carbon vision
0
2000
2005
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
Figure 4 Graph de picting the relative contributions of the wedges t o th e total
emission reduction
Immediate actions are required to ensure the achievement of these reductions in 2050.
In order to realise the low carbon vision it is important to start immediately with the formulation of policies to implement the measures. When looking at greenhouse gas emission reductions of 60-80% over a period of 50 years, innovation in the field of energy-efficient technologies will play an important role. Policies aimed at encouraging innovation in this field should
be implemented.
It is best if policies are implemented in an international context, to avoid market distortions and
the leakage of emissions to other countries. However, it is important to take the lead in order to
strategically position the economy to benefit from the increasing global demand for mitigation
and sustainable (energy) technology.
Total annual costs to achieve 60-80% reduction are estimated to be around 0.7% of gross
domestic product
67% greenhouse gas emission reduction in 2050 at an average cost of 20 €/tonne CO2eq is equal
to annual costs of ~4 bln €. This is equivalent to 0.7% of the gross domestic product (GDP) in
Greece in 2050 (560 bln €) in the reference scenario. This cost estimate does not take peripheral benefits of reduced fossil fuel consumption into account (such as reduced pollution, decreased fossil fuel dependence, health improvement). Moreover, the costs resulting from the
effects of climate change are not taken into account.
9
The Stern Review (Stern et al., 2006) contains valuable and crucial points on the costs of climate change. The basic message is that the costs of stabilising the climate are significant but
manageable; delay would be dangerous and much more costly. The benefits of strong and
early action far outweigh the economic costs of not acting. There is still time to avoid the worst
impacts of climate change, if we take strong action now.
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Table of contents
Executive summary
1
Introduction
1.1
1.2
1.2.1
1.2.2
1.3
Background to this study
Background to climate change
The global perspective
The Greek perspective
Content of the report
3
14
14
14
14
17
20
2
Methodology
21
3
Historic greenhouse gas emissions
24
3.1
3.2
3.3
4
Total greenhouse gas emissions
Trend in greenhouse gas emissions
Emissions per sector
Reference scenario
4.1
4.1.1
4.1.2
4.2
4.2.1
4.2.2
4.2.3
4.2.4
4.2.5
4.2.6
4.2.7
4.2.8
General characteristics of the scenario
Climate policies
Energy Price development
Developments per sector in reference scenario
Energy Supply
Transport
Industry
Agriculture
Waste
Residential-Tertiary Sector
Land Use Change and Forestry
Development of greenhouse gas emissions
24
26
27
29
29
29
31
31
32
32
33
34
34
35
35
36
11
5
Low carbon vision
5.1
5.2
5.3
5.3.1
5.3.2
5.3.3
6
40
Required greenhouse gas emission reduction
Wedges for emission reduction
Low carbon vision
Total emission reduction
Costs
Road maps for policy making
40
43
49
56
61
63
Conclusions and recommendations
67
References
69
Appendix 1: Description of wedges
75
Wedge 1: “Industrial efficiency”
Wedge 2:”Emerging Industry”
Wedge 3: “Hybrid Transport”
Wedge 4: “Shifting Transport”
Wedge 5: “Efficient Buildings”
Wedge 6: “Zero emission buildings”
Wedge 7: “Efficient farming”
Wedge 8: “Low GHG farming”
Wedge 9: “Efficient energy supply” and Wedge 10: “Emerging clean power”
75
78
81
85
89
95
98
101
102
12
List of abbreviations
Abbreviation
CC
CCS
CH4
CFL
CHP
CO2
CO2eq
CSF
EPBD
ETS
EU
FEL
GDP
g.e.
GHG
GWP
HFCs
kt/ktonne
ktoe
LUCF
MEPPPW
N2O
PFCs
ppm
ppmv
SF6
toe
Explanation
Climate Change
Carbon Capture and Storage
Methane
Compact Fluorescent Light bulbs
Combined Heat and Power generation
Carbon Dioxide
Carbon Dioxide equivalent, based on Global Warming Potential from IPCC’s Third Assessment Report, 2001
Community Support Framework
Energy Performance Building Directive
Emissions Trading Scheme
European Union
Frozen efficiency level
Gross Domestic Product
Gasoline equivalent
Greenhouse gases
Global Warming Potential
Hydrofluorocarbons
kilo - tonne
kilo – tonnes of oil equivalent
Land Use Change and Forestry
Ministry for the Environment, Physical Planning and Public
Works, Greece
Nitrous oxide
Perflourocarbons
Parts per million
Parts per million by volume
Sulphurhexafluoride
Tonne of oil equivalent
13
1
I n t r od u c t i o n
1.1
Background to this study
This study defines a low carbon vision for Greece in 2050. The starting points for the vision are
a maximum global temperature increase of at most two degrees in 2050 and an atmospheric
CO2 concentration of at most 400-450 parts per million. For industrialised countries, this leads
to a need to reduce greenhouse gas emission by 25-40% in 2020 and at least 60%-80% in 2050
in comparison to 1990 levels. The goal of this study is to determine the technological measures
needed to establish this challenging emission reduction in Greece. This is done by defining
packages of measures for greenhouse gas emission reduction by sector.
1.2
Bac kground to cli mate change
The threat of climate change is not only well recognized, but is an important item on the political agenda of all countries due to the speed and intensity with which the impacts are already
occurring. But how fast does the world need to move? And how do we avoid resorting to climate-saving technologies which themselves cause other damage to the environment? This low
carbon vision for Greece explores the positive potential for achieving the goal of:
•
An equitable contribution from Greece to averting dangerous and irreversible climate
change, and
•
Avoiding other serious damage to the world’s life sustaining environment
1.2.1
The global perspective
It is beyond doubt that climate change is happening right here, right now. Increasingly, the
world is experiencing extreme weather conditions, such as lengthy droughts, heat waves,
changing rainfall patterns, changing seasonal patterns, and severe hurricanes. The average temperature on earth has increased by 0.8 degrees Celsius since pre-industrial times. That this is
related to high concentrations of CO2 in the atmosphere, caused by burning fossil fuels, coals,
oil and gas, is undisputed. Other significant causes on a global scale are deforestation and agricultural practices.
Climate Change is induced by humans and is primarily caused by the combustion of fossil fuels; coal, oil and gas, but other greenhouse gases (GHGs) also contribute to the problem.
14
The 2 degrees imperative
The average global temperature has already risen by 0.8 °C since the beginning of the Industrial
Revolution (NOAA, 2005).
According to recent research (IPCC, 2007, Graßl et al. 2003, Hare 2003), an average global
warming of 2°C or above compared to the pre-Industrial Revolution level would result in dangerous, irreversible impacts. The latest research (IPCC, 2007) on probability assessments indicate that at 550 ppm CO2-equivalent (CO2eq), there is a very great likelihood that 2°C will be
exceeded (63-99% with a mean of 82%). A stabilisation at 475 ppm is associated with a 38 to
90% (mean 64%) probability. Only with a stabilisation at 400 ppm CO2e is the probability of
exceeding 2°C ‘unlikely’, with a range of 8 to 57% (mean 28%).
Concentration level The CO2 concentration in the atmosphere in 2006 was 382 ppm, or approximately 400 ppm CO2eq. This figure has been rising in recent years at a rate of 2 ppmv per
year (IPCC, 2007). The critical need is to ensure that GHG emissions peak and start to decline
within the next 10 years, as GHGs linger in the atmosphere for decades. This means that radical
action is urgent and imperative.
WWF translated the long-term stabilisation goal of 400 ppm into a global carbon budget of
cumulative fossil CO2 emissions. Stabilisation at 400 ppm CO2eq in 2050 would require the
world to keep within a carbon budget of approximately 370 Gtonne Carbon (1360 Gtonne
CO2eq) for energy and 30 Gtonne Carbon for deforestation, assuming that deforestation emissions have been reduced significantly in the period until 2050. Any failure to secure deforestation emissions would have to be balanced by commensurate energy budget cuts.
Stabilisation target and probability. Our adopted target of 400 ppm carbon dioxide equivalent for greenhouse gases is based on Meinhausen’s analysis of the impact of greenhouse emissions on the climate system, which suggests that such a stabilisation would provide a 72%
probability of avoiding a 2 degree warming.
Carbon budget. There is consensus about the level of emission reductions required to avoid
dangerous climate change – typically 60% below current levels globally by 2050. However, it
is the total cumulative emissions that are important for avoiding dangerous climate change and
so the principle of a ‘carbon budget’ came to life, which totals the amount of carbon that can be
released from human-induced sources (allowing for natural levels of emission and sequestration) before a particular concentration level is reached.
15
The Global Carbon budget
The graph below shows that worldwide emissions may rise up to 10 billion tonnes of Carbon
(37 Gtonne CO2eq) in 2010 and have to decrease sharply thereafter.
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
30
2050
30
Total Emissions Projected in
A1B scenario (GtC/yr)
Carbon Emissions (GtC/yr)
25
25
Carbon Budget (400-500GtC)
20
20
Emissions from residual fossil
fuels, gas and CCS (Gtc)
15
15
10
10
5
5
0
1990
Figure 5:
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
0
2050
Comparison of emissions from the gl obal WWF scenario (run in red) with
the reference scenario (green backgr ound), and the carbon budget range
(brown) (Graus et al., 2006)
Carbon budget range. Meinhausen’s “fossil carbon budget [of] about 500 GtC [gigatonnes of
carbon] for stabilisation at 400 ppm CO2eq” has been adopted as an upper limit. However, this
assumes a significant cut in land use emissions. Meinhausen points out that the carbon budget
“could be lower (400 GtC), depending on net land-use emissions”. 400 GtC (1470 tonne CO2eq)
has therefore been adopted here as the lower bound.
Carbon band. Clearly, such a budget will be spent (emitted) over the course of many years.
The model assumes that the shape of this ‘spend’ is a band, as shown in Figure 6, consistent
with the upper and lower limits of the total carbon budget, and the inertia in the current energy
system, which will resist sudden change.
16
Giga-tonne Carbon
Carbon Budget (GtC)
10
9
8
7
500GtC total emissions
6
5
4
3
2
400GtC total
emissions
1
19
90
20
00
20
10
20
20
20
30
20
40
20
50
20
60
20
70
20
80
20
90
21
00
21
10
21
20
21
30
21
40
21
50
21
60
21
70
21
80
21
90
22
00
0
Figure 6:
Annual carbon emissions ran ge in GtC available for energy, based on a
total budget of between 400GtC and 500GtC, projected to 2200.
1.2.2
The Greek perspective
Global emissions in 2005 were approximately 29 billion tonnes CO2 equivalents. The share of
Greece, with 139 Million tonnes (Mtonne) CO2eq in 2005, amount to approximately 0.5% of
global emissions. In order to comply with the radical emission reduction tracks needed to remain within the budget of ultimately 500 GtC (1830 tonne CO2eq) worldwide, industrialised
countries need to reduce by at least 60-80% in 2050 compared to 1990 levels.
Greece does not have very high overall emissions compared to large emitters like the United
States or China. Nevertheless, it still remains a member state of the European Union, which has
international obligations. Greece’s per capita emissions are higher than the European average.
Taking into account that the latest research (IPCC, 2007) says that the emission reductions of
the industrialised countries should be closer to the upper limit of this 60-80% range, Greece as
part of the industrialised group of countries but with a small share in the overall global emissions should at least achieve a 60% reduction in order to contribute to the global effort of cutting emissions so drastically.
For Greece an emission reduction of 60-80% in 2050 would result in a maximum emission
level of 22-44 MtCO2eq (emission in 1990 are 109 Mtonne CO2eq/yr). Per capita the emission
amount to 12.5 tonnes CO2eq in 2005, while the emissions required in 2050 would have to be
between 2 and 4 tonnes per capita.
17
In 2005 Greece produced a total calculated emission of 139 Million tonnes of CO2-equivalents
(excluding land use change and forestry). CO2-equivalents include all greenhouse gases, such
as methane (CH4), nitrous oxide (N2O) and carbon dioxide (CO2), converted into CO2equivalents based on the Global Warming Potential (GWP) of each greenhouse gas.
The greatest share of emissions in Greece is caused by power plants (41%), followed by industry (17%) and road transport (14%).
Emissions from international air transport and marine bunkers (total 11.6 Mtonne CO2eq in
2005) are not included in this analysis.
Impacts of Climate Change (CC) on Greece and the Mediterranean
Climate Change is already visible and perceptible, also in Greece. There are clear indications of
warming in the country from the early 1990s (NOA, 2001), which is gradually strengthened
and record-breaking hot summers are an increasingly regular occurrence. Furthermore, in total
the trend of precipitation in Greece is negative both on annual as well as on seasonal basis
(NOA, 2005).
This kind of changes could be associated with many adverse consequences in the future, especially regarding water management. The IPCC (IPCC, 2007) predicts that water stress will
increase over southern Europe, where summer flows in some rivers may be reduced by up to
80%. The hydropower potential of Europe is expected to decline by 20 to 50% around the
Mediterranean by the 2070s.
In economic terms, climate change could result in large adaptation and social costs, specifically
in Mediterranean countries, including Greece, where an increase of the number of extremely
hot days in the summer, will make the region less attractive for tourists.
18
What a 2°C warmer world means for the Mediterranean
From the WWF report “Climate change impacts in the Mediterranean resulting from a 2oC global temperature rise”, (WWF,
2005), which focuses on the thirty-year period 2031-2060 assuming that global temperature reaches 2oC above pre-industrial
levels:
If global average temperature would rise 2°C above pre-industrial levels, the climate of the
Mediterranean region would become hotter, drier and more variable. Annual mean temperature around the region would increase by 1-2°C compared to present conditions. Heat waves
and extremely hot days are expected to become more plentiful, particularly in inland locations. Even the breezy northern Aegean islands in Greece would experience a two-week increase in heat wave days.
Annual precipitation would likely decrease by up to one fifth over the southern Mediterranean, while reduction in summer rainfall over the northern Mediterranean could exceed
30%. Drought periods would be expected to shift in time and extend in duration. Even as the
number of dry days would increase, more rainfall would be expected to be concentrated in
heavier episodes over Italy, western Greece, southern France and the northwestern part of
the Iberian Peninsula.
With 2°C global warming, the whole southern part of the Mediterranean would be at risk
from forest fires all year round. In other parts of the region, the period of fire risk would be
expected to be extended by up to six weeks. Extreme fire risk may lengthen by over a month
in the Iberian Peninsula, northern Italy and the Balkans.
The hotter and drier climate is likely to lead to lower agricultural yields, particularly in
summer crops that are not irrigated. Beans, soy beans and lentils are among the most affected crops in the region, with a reduction of up to 40% in yields depending on location.
Throughout the region, some agricultural strategies could still make crops more resilient to
the hotter and drier climate. However, such strategies could require up to 40% more water
for irrigation, which may or may not be available under a global 2°C warming.
More frequent heat waves and forest fires would discourage summer holidays in the Mediterranean region. The spring and autumn seasons may become attractive to certain visitors
but families might take their summer holidays elsewhere. Many visitors from northern
Europe may choose to stay away.
A drier climate, accompanied by reduced precipitation and surface runoff, and increasing
demand from the agricultural sector, would exacerbate the already high level of water stress
in the region. Furthermore, latest studies show that global warming of more than 2°C could
lead to a loss of over 50% of plant species in the northern Mediterranean region, with losses
exceeding 80% in north-central Spain and in the mountains, especially in France. An increase in forest fires would encourage the spread of invasive grass species, which in turn
would fuel even more frequent and more intense fires.
19
1.3
Content of the report
This report is structured as follows:
• Chapter 2 discusses the methodology used.
• Chapter 3 surveys historic greenhouse gas emissions by sector and greenhouse gas in
Greece in the period 1990-2005.
• Chapter 4 gives the projected greenhouse gas emissions in the reference scenario in
Greece in the period 2005-2050.
• Chapter 5 presents the low-carbon vision for Greece, which aims to give an overview
of how 60-80% of greenhouse gas emissions can be reduced in 2050 in comparison to
1990 levels.
• Chapter 6 gives the conclusions and recommendations of the analysis.
• The Appendix shows detailed assumptions regarding the calculation of emission reduction options in Greece.
20
2 M et h o d o l o g y
This chapter surveys the methodology used for determining a low carbon vision for Greece in
2050. The analysis is divided into three steps:
1.
2.
3.
Assessment of historic greenhouse gas emissions in the period 1990-2005 by sector and
greenhouse gas. The purpose of this assessment is to get a feeling for the development of
greenhouse gas emissions by sector and greenhouse gas in Greece. The result of this step
is an overview of sectors that emit large amounts of greenhouse gases. Based on the emissions in 1990 we determine to what level greenhouse gas emissions must be reduced in
2050 in order to realise the target discussed in Chapter 1: 60-80% emission reduction in
2050 compared to 1990 levels.
Development of reference scenario. A reference scenario is defined for the development
of GHG emissions in Greece in the period 2005-2050. This reference scenario is based on
the 4th National Communication to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate
Change (MEPPPW, 2006). The reason for choosing this ‘with measures’ scenario is that it
covers all greenhouse gas emissions and all sectors. This scenario projects emissions until
2020. Emissions are extrapolated for the period 2020-2050. For the extrapolation we use
the yearly growth rates per subsector from 2015-2020 and assume this growth rate will
remain the same until 2050 (agriculture 0.6% per year, waste -3% per year, industry 0.9%
per year, transport 1.4% per year, energy supply 1.0% per year, and residential/tertiary
1.5% per year). The result of this step is an overview of the projected greenhouse gas
emissions in 2050.
Development of low-carbon vision. This step consists of two parts:
a. Definition of wedges for emission reduction. The term “wedge” is taken from Pacala
& Socolow (2004), who define technology-based stabilisation wedges for emission
reduction. A stabilisation wedge represents an activity that reduces emissions to the
atmosphere, implying an effort beyond what would occur under the reference scenario (due to so-called virtual wedges). In our study a wedge refers to a combination
of measures for greenhouse gas reduction in a certain sector. A distinction is made between “low-hanging fruit” and “innovation” wedges. The “low-hanging fruit” wedges
include measures for emission reduction that are readily, cost-effectively available.
The “innovation” wedges include further emission reductions, focused on emerging
technologies and future developments. In a long-term scenario, technology development plays an important role. New technologies, which may be expensive at the moment, will be available in a longer time period at lower cost, due to for example learning by doing and mass production. Increasing energy prices will enhance this process.
By continuous efforts in the field of innovation strong improvements in energyefficiency can be achieved over long time periods. Together, wedges should lead to
the emission reduction needed in 2050. The wedges determine the low-carbon vision
21
for Greece in 2050. The vision gives the measures needed to reduce greenhouse gas
emissions in the long term and reveals that short-term policy making is needed to realise the vision.
b. Calculation of emission reduction per wedge. The potential for greenhouse gas emission reductions in a certain wedge is determined from available literature sources. The
potential is preferably based on studies of greenhouse gas emission reductions in
Greece and, if these are not available, in the European Union.
Detailed assumptions about the emission reduction per wedge can be found in the
Appendix. The emission reduction per wedge is calculated such that there is no overlap between options and wedges. This implies that the emission reductions per wedge
can be added to get to the total emission reduction. Due to the relatively ambiguous
reporting of exact policies and measures taken into account in the reference scenario,
we decided to base the emission reductions on the frozen efficiency level instead of
the ‘with measures’ reference scenario. An explanation of the frozen efficiency level
and how it is used in this study is given in the box on the next page.
22
Frozen efficiency level
Ideally, the reference scenario is described in such detail that assumptions for useful
indicators in all sectors are known (e.g. passenger car fuel intensity in 2050). However,
this is not the case in the reference scenario used in this study. We thus do not know
which measures are already taken in the reference scenario (for example: improve
passenger car efficiency from 7 L/100-km to 5 L/100-km in 50% of cars). This means we
do not know which measures will be exploited in 2050 and which measures will still be
available.
In order to solve this problem we need to construct a fictive emission level which we call
the ‘frozen efficiency level’. This fictive emission level represents a world where current
emission intensities (efficiencies) are kept constant until 2050. In this way we project the
current situation onto 2050 assuming that only GDP growth would occur and efficiency
would not improve (so 7 L/100-km passenger cars, number of cars increases with GDP).
In this way we can reduce emissions with all possible measures (all cars will attain 3
L/100-km in 2050).
We reduce emissions with respect to the frozen efficiency level, but we want to compare
these reductions to the ‘realistic’ reference level. We accordingly have to compare the low
carbon emission level with the reference scenario. See drawing below.
GDP growth rates used can be found in Table 3.
frozen efficiency
level
GDP growth
reference
scenario
all reductions
2005
low carbon
scenario
reductions
compared to
reference
scenario
2050
23
3 Historic greenhouse gas emissions
This chapter surveys historic and current greenhouse gas emissions in Greece per sector and per
greenhouse gas. All emission data in the figures exclude international bunker fuels.
3.1
Total greenho us e gas emi ssions
Total greenhouse gas emissions in Greece amounted to 134 Mtonne CO2eq in 2005, including
land use change and forestry (LUCF) and 139 Mtonne CO2eq excluding LUCF. Figure 7 gives a
breakdown of greenhouse gas emissions in Greece per gas for the year 2005.
HFCs
4%
PFCs
0%
CH4
6%
SF6
0%
N2O
9%
CO2 (excl LUCF)
81%
Figure 7 Share of greenhouse gas emissions per greenhouse gas in 2005 (Inventory
2005 Greece; UNFCCC, 2007).
CO2 emissions represent the largest share of greenhouse gases in Greece (81% in 2005, excluding LUCF), followed by CH4 and N2O, which together account for 15%. Emissions from HFCs,
SF6 and PFCs are relatively small, altogether accounting for 4%. LUCF emissions in Greece
are negative (-5.4 Mtonne CO2eq in 2005), signifying net removals of CO2 from the atmosphere.
These LUCF emissions constitute 4% of total greenhouse gas emissions (excluding LUCF).
Table 2 surveys greenhouse gas emissions and their main origins. Their Global Warming Potential (GWP) is also given. GWPs are used to compare the abilities of different greenhouse
gases to trap heat in the atmosphere. They are based on the heat absorbing capacity of each gas
relative to that of carbon dioxide (CO2), as well as the decay rate of each gas (the amount removed from the atmosphere over a given number of years) relative to that of CO2. The GWP of
gases allows one to calculate the radiative impacts of various greenhouse gases in terms of a
24
uniform measure: tonne carbon dioxide equivalent (tonne CO2eq). All percentages given in the
table are based on total greenhouse gas emissions omitting the negative contribution of LUCF.
Ta ble 2 Greenhouse gas es and their origin
GHG
Greenhouse gas
CO2
Carbon Dioxide
CH4
Methane
N2O
Nitrous Oxide
HFCs
Hydrofluorocarbons
PFCs
SF6
GWP1
Main origins2
1
92% of CO2 emissions in Greece originate from
fossil fuel combustion and 7% from industry (especially mineral products)
23
42% of methane emissions in Greece originate
from agriculture (82% from enteric fermentation;
mainly from cows, and 15% from manure management), nearly 35% from waste, and nearly
20% from fugitive emission from fuels
296
61% of nitrous oxide emissions in Greece originate from agriculture (mainly from agricultural
soils: 96%), 31% from fossil fuel combustion,
and 5% from the chemical industry
120-12,000
All emissions of HFCs come from industry: 57%
from refrigeration and air conditioning equipment and 43% from production of HCFC-22
Perflourocarbons
5,70011,9004
100% of PFC emissions in Greece originate from
aluminium production
Sulphur
Hexafluoride
22,200
All SF6 in Greece is emitted by electrical equipment.
3
1
IPCC estimates for global warming potential over a period of 100 years from Third Assessment Report
(2001).
2
UNFCCC (2007) Inventory 2005 Greece
3
Ranging from 120 for HFC-152a to 12,000 for HFC-23.
4
5,700 for perfluoromethane (CF4) and 11,900 for perfluoroethane (C2F6).
25
3.2
Trend in greenhouse gas emissions
Figure 8 shows the development of greenhouse gas emissions in Greece in the period 19902005, classified per source. The first graph shows the development of all greenhouse gases. The
second graph shows the development of non-CO2 greenhouse gases and CO2 emissions from
land use change and forestry.
160,000
140,000
120,000
Total (incl LUCF)
ktonne CO2 eq
100,000
CO2 (excl LUCF)
CH4
80,000
60,000
N2O
HFCs
CO2 - contribution LUCF
40,000
PFCs
SF6
20,000
19
9
19 0
91
19
9
19 2
9
19 3
94
19
9
19 5
9
19 6
9
19 7
98
19
9
20 9
0
20 0
0
20 1
02
20
0
20 3
04
20
05
0
-20,000
20,000
15,000
ktonne CO2 eq
10,000
CH4
N2O
5,000
HFCs
CO2 - contribution LUCF
PFCs
SF6
19
90
19
91
19
92
19
93
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
0
-5,000
-10,000
Figure 8 Development of greenhouse gas emissions in Greece (UN FCCC, 2007)
Figure 8 shows the following trends for the period 1990-2005:
• Total greenhouse gas emissions have increased by 27%.
• Emissions from CO2 (main source: fossil fuel combustion) have increased by 31%.
• Emissions from CH4 and N2O (main sources: agriculture, waste and fossil fuel combustion) have both decreased by 7%.
26
•
•
Emissions from HFCs and PFCs (main sources: refrigeration, air conditioners and industrial processes) have respectively increased by 532% and decreased by 72%, respectively.
Emissions from SF6 have increased by 46%.
Remarkable is the strong growth of HFC emissions, which is mainly a result of an increase of
cooling equipment (air conditioning and refrigeration) and replacement of HCFCs with HFC's.
HFCs are applied as a substitute for fluorinated and chlorinated hydrocarbons (HCFC), which
are internationally banned under the Montreal protocol because of their role in the destruction
of stratospheric ozone. Mobile air conditioning is a significant source of HFC. This has increased in recent years and is expected to increase in the future. HFC emissions are discussed
in more detail in the next section. CO2 emissions also show a strong increase, mainly caused by
the increase in fossil fuel combustion in the power sector.
3.3
Emissions per sector
Figure 9 shows a breakdown of greenhouse gas emissions per sector in 2005. The largest share
of greenhouse gas emissions in Greece results from public power and heat generation (41%),
followed by industry (17%), and road transport (14%). Agriculture and the residential sector
are responsible for 10% and 8% of total emissions in 2005, respectively. Smaller contributors
are petroleum refining (3%), waste (2%) and the service sector (1%).
Waste
2%
Services
1%
Other
4%
Petroleum refining
3%
Public power and
heat generation
41%
Residential
8%
Agriculture
10%
Road transport
14%
Industry
17%
Figure 9 Greenhouse gas emissions per sect or in 2005 (UNFCCC, 2007)
All emission figures in this study exclude greenhouse gas emissions from international bunker
fuels (aviation and marine). These emissions, however, are worth mentioning since they
amount to 11.6 Mtonne CO2eq in 2005. Including these emissions would increase the total
amount of greenhouse gas emission in 2005 from 139 Mtonne (excluding LUCF) to 151
27
Mtonne, an increase of 8%. These emissions are not expected to increase at alarming rates;
aviation CO2 emissions decreased by 2% with respect to the base year and marine CO2 emissions increased by 13% (UNFCCC, 2007). Even though a growth of 13% might sound serious
(RIVM, 1999), there are more serious emission growths to worry about in Greece, such as (all
growth percentages use 1990 as a base year):
- 113% increase in CO2eq emissions from households and services between 1990
and 2005 (total emissions in 2005: 12 Mtonne CO2eq)
- 48% increase in CO2eq emissions from the transport sector (total emissions in
2005: 23 Mtonne CO2eq)
- 34% increase in CO2eq emissions from the power sector (total emissions in
2005: 58 Mtonne CO2eq)
- 532% increase in HFCs emissions (total emissions in 2005: 6 Mtonne CO2
equivalent)
Let us focus on the latter two taking into account the enormous growth or the relatively large
contribution to total emissions. HFCs are chemical substances, the production of which aims
mainly at substituting ozone depleting substances (following the Montreal Protocol in 1987).
HFCs are not harmful to the ozone layer but are powerful greenhouse gases. Apart from being
characterized by a high Global Warming Potential (GWP), these gases have extremely long
atmospheric lifetimes, resulting in their essentially irreversible accumulation in the atmosphere.
Table 2 shows that in 2005 all emissions of HFCs (5.9 Mtonne CO2eq) came from industry:
57% from refrigeration and air conditioning equipment (manufacturing process, leakage over
the operational life of the equipment, and disposal at the end of the lifetime) and 43% from
production of HCFC-22. In comparison, HFCs in 1993 were emitted in the same industry
branches (total 1.6 Mtonne CO2eq), but with a negligible share for refrigeration and air
conditioning equipment. This illustrates the considerable growth in the use of refrigeration and
air conditioning equipment from 1993 to 2005. Growth in GDP per capita over the last decade
has been among the most rapid in the OECD (OECD, 2007). Accordingly, the use of air
conditioning equipment in the residential sector and new passenger cars in Greece has
increased tremendously throughout the past 10 years (MEPPPW, 2006).
Economic growth and energy consumption follow the same pattern. Electricity generation
increased continuously with an average annual rate of approximately 4% for the period 19902003 (MEPPPW, 2006). Gross electricity production in 2003 totalled 58.2 TWh, of which 60%
and 15% came from the combustion of coal and petroleum products, respectively, 9% from
hydropower, 15% from natural gas and 1% from other (except large hydro) renewable energy
sources (mainly from wind energy). Due to the close connection between energy consumption
and GDP growth, these emissions are expected to increase considerably in the future.
28
4 Reference scenario
This chapter surveys the reference scenario used as basis for the analysis.
4.1
General characteristics of the scenario
The reference scenario used is from the 4th National Communication to the United Nations
Framework Convention on Climate Change (MEPPPW, 2006). The report presents amongst
others a reference projection that covers the future development of Greek energy use and
greenhouse gas emissions. Within this projection, two scenarios have been developed: ‘with
measures’ and ‘with additional measures’. We use the former as reference scenario, which
takes into consideration the implemented policies and measures for reducing GHG emissions
and assuming that no additional emission reduction actions are adopted. This scenario projects
emissions until 2020 and should therefore be extrapolated for the period 2020-2050. For the extrapolation we continue the emission trends 2015-2020 using 2020 data and the yearly growth
rates for the period 2015-2020. We slightly adapt the high growth percentage of HFC emissions
in the industrial sector from 4% from 2020 onwards to 1.5% from 2020 onwards (in line with a
lower GDP growth). The ‘with additional measures’ scenario is projected until 2015 and is
based on the assumption that the current policy and measures ensemble is expanded. Both scenarios assume the same GDP and population growth (Table 3). We do not use the GDP and
population growth rates to forecast emissions in the reference scenario, but we do use them for
passenger- and transport-kilometre forecasts in the reference scenario beyond 2050.
Ta ble 3 GDP an d popul ation i n reference scenari o (MEPPPW, 2006)
Historic data
Population
(x1000)
GDP
(bil. €2000)
Projections
Average annual rate of increase
2000- 20052010201520202005 2010
2015
2020
2050
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2050
10157
10634
10917
11082
11261
11366
11377
11443
0.30%
0.32%
0.19%
0.02% 0.02%
98
104
123.
150
179
212
244
560
3.96%
3.67%
3.46%
2.81%
In the reference scenario, average yearly emission growth rates from 2020 onwards used to extrapolate emissions are: Energy Supply 1.0% per year, Transport 1.4% per year, Industry 0.9%
per year, Agriculture 0.6% per year, Waste -3% per year, Residential/Tertiary 1.5% per year.
More details on sector definitions in 4.2. These growth rates illustrate convergence to western
European levels (households and services, transport grow faster than industry and agriculture).
4.1.1
Climate policies
It is difficult to resolve concrete or detailed climate policies for Greece. Policies presented in
this section are therefore mostly an indication of what ought to be implemented or adopted in
29
1.5%
Greece in the ‘with measures’ reference scenario. Supporting policies for the restriction of
GHG emissions in Greece consist of the following (MEPPPW, 2006):
• The 2nd National Climate Change Programme (2000-2010) aims at restricting emissions up to 2010 and defines the additional policies and measures necessary for Greece
to meet its Kyoto target (restricting the increase of GHG emissions to 25% over 20082012, compared to 1990 emissions) by amongst others:
o Promotion of natural gas in energy and transport sectors
o Improvements in conventional power generation system
o Promotion of renewable energy sources and co-generation
o Council Directive on waste management
o Promotion of energy saving measures and energy efficient appliances in industry and in the residential-tertiary sectors (e.g. Council Directive on the energy
performance of buildings, EPBD)
o Structural changes in agriculture and in chemical industry
o Emissions reduction actions in transport (e.g. voluntary agreement between EC
and motor manufacturers, Council Directive on promotion of use of biofuels or
other renewable fuels, Council Directive relating to the quality of petrol and
diesel fuels)
• European emissions trading scheme (EU-ETS) (2005-2020)
• Operational Programme Competitiveness which falls under the 3rd Community Support
Framework (CSF) for 2000-2006, and promotes interventions that may lead to GHG
emissions reduction (9 priority sectors with 41 measures).
• Operational Programme Environment, which also falls under the 3rd CSF and promotes
among other things special actions for the reduction of atmospheric pollution, particularly for regions of Athens and Thessalonica.
o Council Directive on limitation of emissions of certain pollutants into the air
from large combustion plants
These climate policies in the reference scenario (‘with measures’) result in a GHG emissions
reduction potential (compared to frozen efficiency level) of 11 Mtonne CO2eq for 2010 and 29
Mtonne CO2eq for 2015. However, the scenario foresees that emissions will be 37% and 53%
above base year levels5 by 2010 and 2020 respectively (MEPPPW, 2006); illustrating the need
for additional policies and measures as well as for implementing promised measures: on the
17th of January 2008, Greece was condemned by the European court of justice for failing to
transpose the EU’s 2002 energy performance of buildings directive (European Court of Justice,
2008). The Greek government presented the legal framework for this directive to the Greek
parliament two years after the deadline set by the European Commission for transposing it into
national law was expired.
Given that the sector LUCF was a net sink of GHG emissions in 1990, the removals are not
considered in estimating base year emissions for Greece and are furthermore not included in the
emissions projections.
5
1990 for CO2, CH4, N2O emissions, and 1995 for HFCs, PFCs and SF6 emissions
30
4.1.2
Energy Price development
Energy price developments in the reference scenario are given in Table 4. These numbers are
not used for forecasts but serve as illustration of assumptions used in the reference scenario.
Ta ble 4 Development of fuel prices in reference scenario (MEPPPW, 2006)
Historic prices
1990 1995
2000
Projected prices
2005
2010
2015
2020
Coal ($2000/t)
63.1
50
33.8
39.5
37.2
36.5
37.4
Oil ($2000/bbl)
27.3
21.2
27
32
23.5
25.2
26.8
121.4
170.9
125.7
134.5
143.3
International fuel prices
Natural Gas ($2000/toe) -
-
Note that the oil price in the reference scenario in 2020 is 26.8 US$/barrel, which is very low
compared to recent prices of 84-118 US$/barrel (Oct 2007-April 2008). A higher oil price
would further encourage energy efficiency improvement and the production and consumption of renewable energy sources.
4.2
Developments per sector in reference scenario
Table 5 shows the sector terminology used in this study.
Ta ble 5 Greenhouse gas emissions by sect or
Sector
Definition
Energy supply
Direct GHG emissions from public electricity and heat generation
and fugitive emissions from fossil-fuel production and distribution
Transport
Direct GHG emissions from public, private and freight transport
(e.g. cars, buses, motors, diesel trains, trucks). Excluding emissions
from international marine bunker fuels and international aviation.
Industry
Direct GHG emissions from industries, resulting from fossil fuel
combustion and process emissions (including emissions from solvents and other products use, and petroleum refining).
Agriculture
Direct GHG emissions from agriculture. Mainly CH4 and N2O
emissions from animals and soil, and CO2 emissions from fossil
fuel combustion.
Waste
Direct GHG emissions from waste management and storage (e.g.
landfills and waste water handling).
Residential - Tertiary
Direct GHG emissions from households and services. Mainly combustion of fossil fuels for heating purposes.
31
Note that the greenhouse gas emission figures per sector include direct greenhouse gas emissions only. This means, for example, that power consumption by households and services from
the electricity grid results in greenhouse gas emissions in the energy supply sector. This is because the greenhouse gas emissions result from the combustion of fossil fuel in public power
plants. Below is a description per sector focussing mainly on final energy consumption. Greenhouse gas developments per sector will be discussed in more detail in section 0.
4.2.1
Energy Supply
Developments in the energy supply sector are (MEPPPW, 2006):
•
4.2.2
Electricity demand is expected to expand with an average annual rate of 3.1% during
2000-2010, while this rate declines to 2.3% during 2010-2020.
o Total installed power generation increases by 9.6 GW between 1995 and 2020.
This is mainly covered by promoting natural gas combined cycle power plants
(NGCC) using an economic instrument. Their capacity increases by almost 5
times over 2000-2020 to reach 5.9 GW or 31.4% of installed capacity by 2020.
o Replacement of 1600 MW of old power units with new ones with natural gas
or solid fuels (economic instrument)
o Large hydro units increase during 2000-2020 by 0.66 GW (by economic and
regulatory instruments)
o 2 GW of wind farms are expected to be installed until 2020 (by economic and
regulatory instruments)
o Cogeneration in thermal and electricity generation (economic instrument)
o The rate of increase of emissions is slowed down, mainly due to the penetration of natural gas and renewable energy sources in power generation
Transport
Developments in the transport sector are:
• Passenger transport: passenger kilometres increase from 160 billion in 2005 to 250 billion in 2020 and 390 billion in 2050.
• Freight transport: ton kilometres increase from 32 billion in 20005 to 49 billion in 2020
and 77 billion in 2050.
• Market penetration of biofuels through fiscal incentives will lead to declining emission
growth rates over the projected years.
• Promotion of low polluting vehicles since 1999
• Promotion of public transport and clean CNG buses (by public investments)
• Energy and CO2 labelling for new cars since 2002
32
Table 6 shows the development of the energy demand for transport in the reference scenario.
Ta ble 6 Development of final energy demand i n refere nce scenario (MEPPPW, 2006;
Kassapis, 2005)
Transport fossil fuels
4.2.3
2005
8067
2020
10239
Unit
ktoe
Industry
Developments in the sector industry are:
• Clinker and steel production develop according to Table 7
Ta ble 7 Development clinker and steel pr oduction in reference scenario (MEPPPW,
2006)
Clinker production (Mt)
Steel production (Mt)
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Historic data
Projections
1990
1995 2000 2000-2005 2005 - 2010 2010 - 2020
10.6
11.7
12.1
0.6%
0.9%
0.8%
1
0.9
1.1
16.2%
1.9%
0.4%
Production of other mineral products (e.g. lime, glass, etc) increases with an average
annual rate of 2% for the period 2000-2020
Aluminium and nitric acid production are kept constant at 2000-2003 levels
HCFC-22 production decreases following the phase-out schedule defined in Regulation
2037/2000
All new and replaced refrigeration and air-conditioning equipment use HFC as the refrigerant agent and F-gases are recovered from discarded equipment
Population is considered as the determinant parameter (in accordance with the methodology used for emissions calculation in the National Inventory) of the emissions from
solvents and other products use.
The installed capacity of industrial installations is not foreseen to increase in the future,
given the important investments realised in the period 2000-2003 in cement and metal
production installations (in preparation for the Olympic Games in 2004).
Incentives for renewables, oil and electricity substitution by natural gas (economic) and
energy conservation since 1998
Biomass will be used for thermal and electric uses; promoted by economic and regulatory instruments
Financial support mechanism for RES and RUE since 2000
Table 8 shows the development of final energy demand for industry in the reference scenario.
Ta ble 8 Development of final energy demand in reference scenario (MEPPPW , 2006)
Industry
2005
7077
2020
8621
Unit
ktoe
33
4.2.4
Agriculture
Developments in agriculture are:
• The number of sheep, goats and poultry increases with a rate of 0.6%, 0.4% and 1% per
year respectively between 2000 and 2020, while swine population decreases by 0.3%
per year. The number of dairy cows and other cattle decreases with a mean annual rate
of 0.4% for 2000-2020, while the horse population decreases by 4.6%.
• The use of synthetic nitrogen fertilizers decreases continuously and as a result total nitrogen deposition on land decreases with a mean annual rate of 1.2% for 2000-2010.
• Agricultural areas, which are responsible for most of N2O emissions, are expected to
increase slightly up to 2020, following an increase rate of 0.13% annually. At the same
time the productivity index is expected to improve.
Table 9 shows the development of final energy demand for agriculture in the reference scenario.
Ta ble 9 Development of final energy demand in reference scenario (MEPPPW , 2006)
2005
1300
Agriculture
4.2.5
2020
1624
Unit
ktoe
Waste
Developments in the waste sector are:
• The generation rate in kg/capita/day increases from 1.09 in 2000 to 1.73 in the period
2015-2020.
• Implementation of Council Directive 1999/31 about sanitary landfill and implementation of strategic plan MEPPPW (regulatory instrument).
o Waste on managed landfill sites increases from 2133 kt in 2000 up to 3373 kt
in period 2015-2020
o Waste on unmanaged landfill sites decreases from 1935 kt in 2000 to 1.24 kt in
period 2015-2020 following the strategic plan of the MEPPPW.
o Fraction of organic waste land filled decreases from 65% in 2000 to 26% in the
period 2015-2020
o Recycling increases drastically from 7.6% in 2000 to 53.7% in the period
2015-2020.
o Establishment of municipal wastewater plants that will serve 95% of population from 2006 onwards.
• N2O emissions from human sewage and methane emissions from industrial wastewater
handling will increase throughout the years.
34
4.2.6
Residential-Tertiary Sector
Developments in the residential and tertiary sector are:
• The contribution of tertiary and residential sector to final energy consumption is expected to increase significantly during the reference period.
• Household size is forecasted to slightly decrease in the future; from 2.73 cap/hh in
2005 until 2.47 cap/hh in 2020. This means a decrease of about 0.6% per year
• The number of household will increase from 4,056,000 in 2005 to 4,602,000 in 2020.
The growth comes down to nearly 1% per year.
• The gross value added in the private and public services sectors and trade are expected
to increase significantly according to Table 10.
• Energy Auditing Code since 1999
• Increased use of natural gas in residential/tertiary sector (economic instrument)
• Decision for the reduction of CO2 emission by energy efficiency improvement in buildings since 1998
• Solar energy in the residential and tertiary sector (economic instrument)
Ta ble 10 Forecasted Gross Value A dded growth in services and trade sec tors ( bil.
€2000) in reference scenario (MEPPPW, 2006)
Historic
Projections
Average annual rate of increase
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2050
‘00-‘05
‘05-‘10
‘10-‘15
‘15-‘20
Private services
18.6
20.4
23.3
27.0
32.1
38.7
46.3
135.3
2.97%
3.53%
3.81%
3.64%
Public services
18.5
18.9
20.4
26.2
30.6
33.3
35.7
54.0
5.14%
3.18%
1.74%
1.39%
Trade
24.0
25.8
33.8
44.0
55.2
69.0
81.1
215.8
5.41%
4.62%
4.55%
3.30%
Table 11 shows the development of final energy demand for households and services.
Ta ble 11 Development of final energy demand in reference scenario (MEPPPW,
2006)
Residential
Tertiary
4.2.7
2005
5257
1840
2020
6800
3085
Unit
ktoe
ktoe
Land Use Change and Forestry
The net contribution of the Land Use Change and Forestry sector to emissions has been fluctuating but negative during the whole period 1990-2005. In 2005, the sector took up 5.4 Mtonne
CO2eq (4.4 Mtonne CO2eq due to forest land and 1 Mtonne CO2eq due to cropland). Developments in this sector:
• The area of managed and harvested forest land will remain constant
• Annual biomass growth in these lands will remain constant
• Areas affected by wildfires each year will be equal to the average area burnt in the period 1990– 2003
35
Afforestation of croplands is continued until 2006 with a rate equal to the average afforestation rate of the period 1994 – 2003. The average carbon sequestration in living
biomass in these lands is assumed stable for 30 years after the establishment of the
plantation.
For the projections of carbon stock changes and emissions / removals of CO2 from
croplands, the assumptions related to the evolution of agricultural areas were followed.
•
•
4.2.8
Development of greenhouse gas emissions
Figure 10 shows the resulting development of greenhouse gas emissions in the reference scenario until 2050.
GHG emissions (ktonne CO2eq)
250000
200000
Total
Energy supply
Transport
150000
Residential/Tertiary
Industry
100000
A griculture
Waste
50000
0
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
year
Figure 10 Reference sce nari o GHG emissi ons by sector unti l 2050
Figure 11 shows a breakdown of greenhouse gas emissions per sector and per gas from 2000 to
2050 in the reference scenario. Greenhouse gas emissions from all sectors are expected to increase, except for waste, where emissions are expected to decrease.
36
100000
90000
80000
ktonne CO2eq
70000
PFC
60000
HFC
50000
N2O
CH4
40000
CO2
30000
20000
10000
Energy
supply
Transport
Industry
Waste
Agriculture
2050
2020
2005
1990
2050
2020
2005
1990
2050
2020
2005
1990
2050
2020
2005
1990
2050
2020
2005
1990
2050
2020
2005
1990
0
Residential
and Tertiary
Figure 11 Breakdown of GHG emissions by sector and by greenhouse gas in reference scenario
Figure 11 shows the substantial emissions in the energy supply sector. Throughout the years
1990-2005, an increase in energy demand, which was the sharpest in the entire EU (Sarafidis et
al., 2002), led to an increase in the supply of electricity and an increased exploitation of lignite,
an energetically poor and highly polluting fossil fuel. Due to the expected growth in economic
development, energy demand and therefore energy supply are forecasted to increase considerably. Even though the use of lignite is expected to slow down, this cheap resource will keep
playing an important role.
Energy demand is expected to grow fastest in the tertiary and residential sector with accompanying increases in emissions. Emissions from the residential sector are expected to grow with
14% between 2005 and 2010, 8% between 2010 and 2015, and 7% between 2015-2020 (and
onwards). Emissions from the tertiary sector are thought to grow with 28% between 20052010, 16% between 2010-2015, and 13% between 2015-2020 (and onwards). Noticeable are
the declines in the CH4 emissions in this sector: -15% from 2005-2010, -16% from 2010-2015,
and -18% from 2015-2020 (and onwards). CO2 emissions from the transport sector also exhibit
important increases, with an average rate of 10% for 2005-2010 and 11% for 2010-2015. This
rate declines to 7% in the following 5 years (and onwards) as a result of the penetration of biofuels and more efficient vehicles in the transport system.
The vast expected growth in HFC emissions (even if we assume a lower growth rate of 1.5 instead of 4%) is due to the use of refrigeration and air-conditioning equipment and has two
causes: the high rates of air-conditioning penetration and production and the final disposal of
the equipment. The observed increase in CO2 emissions in the same sector is the result of con-
37
tinuing use of the recently upgraded and expanded capacity for cement, iron and steel production.
The significant increase in recycling of waste following the Council Directive 1999/31 is the
most important cause of declining waste emissions. This Directive has been implemented in
Greek law since 2002.
Even though net emissions are expected to rise considerably in the next few decades (mainly
due to GDP growth) in the reference scenario, it is important to realise that most relative emissions (tCO2eq per M€, tCO2-p-km, tCO2eq kt waste, etc.) are generally decreasing, see Table 12.
Ta ble 12 Pr ojection of basic indices in the refer ence scenario
Sector
Index
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
Total
Emissions intensity per GDP
860
840
845
769
686
612
563
0.085
0.079
0.073
0.072
0.063
0.060
0.058
0.51
0.44
0.39
0.35
0.32
0.31
0.29
unit (tCO2/M€)
Transport
Specific CO2 emissions of passenger cars (kCO2/p-km)
Transport
Specific
CO2
emissions
of
freight transport (kCO2/t-km)
Industry
Emissions intensity (tCO2/M€)
640
583
558
532
496
460
429
Residential
Specific
of
1.38
1.33
1.96
2.39
2.60
2.70
2.79
intensity
8.63
10.13
10.03
13.27
14.08
13.72
13.44
Electricity
CO2 emissions of large power
378
343
320
304
274
260
248
generation
plants (tCO2/TJe)
Agriculture
Specific N2O emissions of fer-
0.02
0.02
0.02
0.02
0.02
0.02
0.02
81.20
81.32
80.49
80.20
79.86
79.52
79.19
0.05
0.05
0.04
0.04
0.04
0.03
0.02
CO2
emissions
households (tCO2/household)
Tertiary
CO2
emissions
(tCO2/M€)
tilizer
and
manure
use
(ktN2O/ktN)
Agriculture
Specific CH4 emissions of cattle
production (tCH4/head)
Waste
Specific CH4 emissions from
landfills (ktCH4/kt waste)
Observed relative reductions are the result of implemented and adopted policies. The emissions
intensity per unit of GDP is expected to decrease particularly because of the penetration of
natural gas and various renewable energy sources into the energy system. In the transport sector, indices decrease mainly because of the penetration of biofuels as well as the modernisation
of the fleet and the increased use of vehicles with lower specific consumption. In the industrial
sector, CO2 emissions intensity decreases as a result of the implementation of energy conservation policies in the sector and the penetration of natural gas. The residential index shows a substantial increase throughout the projected years, as a result of the improved standards of living
in Greece. However, the penetration of natural gas into the sector in combination with the pro-
38
motion of energy efficiency in buildings policies and a stabilizing population will eventually
slow down this growth. Up to 2010, CO2 emissions intensity in the tertiary sector will keep increasing. Interplay between improved working conditions and high growth rates on the one
hand, and natural gas penetration (expected to substitute for oil and electricity in some energy
uses such as heating) and more efficient equipment on the other hand, will eventually lead to a
decreasing emission intensity. In the power generation sector, CO2 emissions of large power
plants show a remarkable decrease over the years mainly due to natural gas penetration and the
refurbishment of some old lignite-fired power plants. In the agricultural sector, N2O emissions
remain at the same levels considering management practices in the sector will remain unchanged. Per animal CH4 emissions from cattle show a slight decrease. Finally in the waste sector, CH4 emissions per kt of landfill waste shows a substantial decrease mainly after 2010, as a
result of the implementation in 2002 of the Directive 1999/31.
39
5
Low carbon vision
This chapter provides a view of the low carbon vision for Greece and is structured as follows.
1. Section 5.1 gives an overview of the required greenhouse gas emission reduction for
reaching the 60-80% reduction goal in 2050.
2. In section 5.2 we look at the emission reduction achieved in the low carbon vision per
sector and in total.
3. In section 5.3 we present the low carbon vision for Greece, surveying the emission reduction achieved in the low carbon vision per sector and in total. Subsection 5.3.2
elaborates on costs while section 5.3.3 presents road maps for policy making.
5.1
Required greenhouse gas emission reduction
Figure 12 shows greenhouse gas emissions in Greece in the reference scenario ‘with measures’
and the emission reduction required in 2050 to reduce emissions by 60-80% below 1990 levels.
In addition to the reference scenario (the yellow line), the figure shows: (1) a hypothetical frozen efficiency level, in which greenhouse gas intensities (efficiencies) are assumed constant
through time; (2) a scenario with an autonomous greenhouse gas intensity (tonne CO2eq/GDP)
decrease of 1% per year until 2020 and 0.5% per year from 2020 onwards (since GDP growth
is expected to slow down); and (4) a scenario where planned policies and measures are taken
into account, the ‘with additional measures’ scenario. The greenhouse gas intensity decrease
needed to achieve 60-80% reduction below 1990 levels is between 4.4 and 5.9% per year.
350000
300000
Frozen ef f iciency
ktonne CO2eq
250000
Autonomous GHG
intensity decrease
w ith measures
200000
w ith additional
measures
60% reduction
150000
80% reduction
100000
50000
0
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
Figure 12 Greenhouse gas e mi ssions ( ktonne CO2eq)
40
The emission reduction needed in order to obtain 60-80% is 66-88 Mtonne CO2eq/yr compared
to the 1990 level of 109 Mtonne CO2eq/yr. Measured up to 2005 this means 95-117 Mtonne
CO2eq/yr of reduction is necessary. Compared to the ‘with measures’ reference scenario projected value for 2050 this leads to a total need for greenhouse gas emissions reduction in
Greece of 184-206 Mtonne CO2eq/yr in 2050.
Figure 13 shows the development of greenhouse gas emissions per capita.
25,0
reference scenario
tonne CO2eq/capita
20,0
60% reduction
80% reduction
15,0
10,0
Emission reduction
5,0
0,0
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
Figure 13 Greenhouse gas emissions per capita
Greenhouse gas emissions need to reduce to 1.9-3.8 tonne CO2eq per capita in 2050 in comparison to 10.8 tonne per capita in 1990 and 12.5 tonne per capita in 2005. In the reference scenario
emissions increase to 19.9 tonne per capita in 2050. The population in Greece will be 11.42
million in 2040 and 11.44 in 2050 (population growth 0.02%/year).
Figure 14 shows a comparison of greenhouse gas emissions per capita in 2000 for a number of
countries. Greenhouse gas emissions in Greece per capita are slightly above average with 12
tonne CO2eq/capita (MEPPPW, 2006) in comparison to 10.5 tonne CO2eq/capita for EU-25
(WRI, 2007). Average greenhouse gas emissions per capita worldwide are 5.9 tonne
CO2eq/capita.
41
30
tCO2eq/capita
25
20
15
10
5
China
World
Switzerland
Sweden
France
Portugal
Italy
Spain
Austria
EU (25)
EU (15)
UK
Japan
Greece
Norway
Denmark
Germany
Finland
Belgium
Netherlands
USA
Ireland
0
Figure 14 Greenhouse gas emissions per capita in 2000 (WRI, 2007). Data Greece:
MEPPPW, 2006
Figure 15 shows the greenhouse gas intensity of the economy in tonne CO2eq per unit of GDP.
The greenhouse gas intensity for Greece is 638 per million Intl. $2000 (WRI, 2007), which is
much higher than the EU-25 value of 457 tCO2eq/MInt.$. The average greenhouse gas intensity
worldwide is 798 tonne CO2eq/MInt.$, which is mainly a result of the high greenhouse gas intensity of the economies of many developing countries (up to 7284 tonne CO2eq/MInt$ for
Mongolia, 5523 for Central African Republic, and 982 tonne CO2eq/MInt$ for China).
1200
tCO2eq/M Int.$
1000
800
600
400
200
Switzerland
Norway
Sweden
France
Italy
Austria
Japan
UK
Spain
EU (15)
Portugal
Denmark
EU (25)
Netherlands
Finland
Germany
Belgium
Ireland
Greece
USA
World
China
0
Figure 15 Greenhouse gas intensity econ omy in 2000 (WRI, 2007), GDP in PPP US$.
42
5.2
Wedges for emission reduction
This section looks at the wedges that are defined for reducing greenhouse gas emissions. A distinction is drawn between “low-hanging fruit” and “innovation” wedges.
Measures included in the low-hanging fruit wedges are selected on basis of cost-effectiveness
and the availability of technology. Cost-effectiveness of measures is based on literature
sources. Cost-effective means that a measure does not lead to net direct costs during its lifetime. This means that the direct costs of a measure (such as investment costs and maintenance)
are equal to or less than the direct benefits (e.g. reduced energy consumption) over the lifetime
of the measure. Future costs and benefits are discounted to the base year. Subsidies and taxes
are not taken into account. In some cases assumptions are made regarding future cost developments of certain technologies.
Measures included in the innovation wedges are additional emission reduction options which
are currently available, emerging technologies, and new technologies still to be developed. The
costs of these measures are likely to decrease in the future due to learning by doing and mass
production.
43
Table 13 shows the wedges included in this study. Specific assumptions made per wedge can
be found in the Appendix.
Ta ble 13 Wedges
Wedges
Description
Low-hanging fruit
“Industrial
effi• Improving energy efficiency
ciency”
• Combined Heat and Power generation (CHP)
“Hybrid transport”
• Energy-efficient cars and trucks
“Efficient build• Efficient electric appliances, lighting and cooling equipment
ings”
• Improved heat insulation and building design
• Reduce stand-by losses
• Reduce electricity use during non-office hours
“Efficient farming”
• Energy efficiency improvement
• Anaerobic digestion of manure
• Reduce CH4 from enteric fermentation cattle by improved diets
• Reduce N2O from soils by spreader maintenance
“Efficient energy
• Energy efficiency improvement
supply”
• Increased use of renewable energy (wind power, biomass, geothermal)
• Switch from coal to natural gas
Innovation
“Emerging indus• Energy efficient emerging technologies
try”
• Material efficiency and recycling
• Decreasing non-CO2 GHGs
“Shifting transport”
• Reduce volume of car traffic
• Modal shift (car to public transport)
• Shift from road freight to rail freight
• Highly efficient vehicles
• Biofuels
“Zero emission
• Zero-energy dwellings and office buildings in both new and renobuildings”
vated buildings
• Use of biomass for heating for 15% of heat demand in buildings
“Low GHG farm• Precursors in daily supplements to reduce CH4 from enteric fermening”
tation
• Reduce N2O from soils by sub-optimal levels of fertilizer and fertilizer free zones
“Emerging
clean
• Energy efficiency improvement (emerging technologies)
power”
• Increased use of renewable technologies
• CO2 capture and storage (CCS) (only in a secured social and environmental way)
44
The boxes below present examples of possible measures for greenhouse gas emission reduction.
Electric motor systems in industries (Industrial efficiency wedge)
Large energy savings in industries can be achieved by improving the energy-efficiency of electric motor systems, which take a large share of the electricity used in industry (approximately
65%, De Keulenaer et al., 2004). Technologies for reducing electricity consumption in electric
motor systems include variable speed drives, high efficiency motors and efficient pumps, compressors and fans. The economic savings potential for EU-15 is estimated to be 29% of the
electricity consumed by industrial motor systems (De Keulenaer et al., 2004).
Solar thermal power (Emerging clean power wedge)
Solar thermal power production (ST) is a clean, proven technology that can be an economically
viable option. Solar concentrating collectors focus solar rays onto a flowing liquid (e.g. molten
salt) able to sustain very high temperatures. This allows the solar energy to be used to produce
steam and drive turbines of electricity-generating plants directly, or to be harvested and stored
as sensible heat in large reservoirs above or below the ground.
One important advantage of ST is that the thermal energy can be stored, which makes it possible to compensate for large fluctuations in the grid caused by the use of wind and solar cells.
“The stored portion of the energy can be used instantaneously to meet variable power needs.
This technology has been amply demonstrated by a 354MWe modular plant (consisting of 9 ST
units) that has been running in the Mojave Desert for the past 20 years” (Shinnar & Citro,
2007). ST can also be coupled with water desalination (Shinnar and Citro, 2007), which will
become more important in the future.
Anaerobic digestion of manure (Efficient farming wedge)
A cost effective option for reducing CH4 emissions from manure is anaerobic digestion of manure, which involves the bacterial fermentation of organic material. Typically, between 40%
and 60% of the organic matter present is converted to biogas. The biogas can be burned directly
in modified gas boilers for heat production or can be used to generate electricity. The remaining
residue can be used as a soil conditioner or as a fertilizer.
Besides reducing CH4 emissions, anaerobic digestion of manure has external benefits due to indirect CO2 emission reduction by renewable power generation and the possibility of reducing
N2O emissions by co-digestion of chicken manure. The implementation of manure digestion in
Greece is currently low; anaerobic digestion plants exist (37 MW installed capacity), but they
use sewage sludge or landfill gas as feedstock. “It is estimated that the AD [co-digestion] of
manure and organic wastes from the slaughter houses and milk factories could feed CHP plants
of total installed capacity of 350MW”.(Al Seadi et al., 2007).
45
Heat demand in buildings (Efficient buildings wedge)
Research has shown that over 74% of the existing Greek housing stock has inadequate insulation (Healy, 2003; Balaras et al., 2007). Total yearly energy loss is 83.5 million GJ. There is a
lot to improve (Petersdorff et al., 2002): average wall insulation is 50 mm (while 220 in Sweden) and 100 mm for roofs (400 mm in Sweden). Energy loss through walls amounts to 79
MJ/m2 per year (52 in Sweden), while energy loss through roofs is 53 MJ/m2 per year (27 in
Ireland). Insulating the walls and weather proofing of openings can save 21 - 60% of space
heating energy. It can accordingly cut CO2 emissions by at least 4 Mtonne CO2eq (Balaras et al.,
2007). Larger energy savings are possible when building new houses. Within a timeframe of
40-50 years there is great potential for energy savings by constructing so-called zero-energy
houses.
Lighting in households (Efficient buildings wedge)
In Greece there is great potential for reducing electricity consumption for lighting by the further
introduction of compact fluorescent light bulbs (CFL). CFLs save up to 80% of the consumption of standard incandescent bulbs and last ten times longer. Even though CFLs have a higher
initial cost, they are more economical than incandescent lamps on a lifecycle base due to their
low energy use. Yet CFLs only account for 10% of the lighting market in Europe (Lefèvre et
al., 2006).
Zero-energy buildings (Zero emission buildings wedge)
Zero energy building is a term applied to a building with a net energy consumption of zero. In
other words, the energy provided by on-site renewable energy sources is equal to the energy
consumed. This can be achieved by an optimal building design with a minimal energy demand
and renewable energy generation by, for example, solar power and heat.
Sol Energy Hellas SA in Athens
Sol Energy Hellas SA along with its cooperating partners the National Research Centre for
Scientific Research «DEMOKRITOS», the Aristotle University of Thessaloniki and the
National Technical University of Athens, has materialised the design and construction of a
totally energy-autonomous building named "Prometheus Pyrphoros" ("Prometheus the FireBringer"), by exploiting solar and geothermal energy. The developed solutions put an end to
the use of oil, natural gas and other expensive and, most importantly, polluting sources of
energy. Furthermore, through a series of bioclimatic applications and innovations and by the
use of products already available in the Greek market, the effective operation of the building is
completed and excellent comfort conditions are achieved both in the offices of the working
space and in the apartments above.
WWF Netherlands headquarters in Zeist
The headquarters of WWF in the Netherlands is one of the first carbon neutral office buildings
in Europe. The building makes use of heat and cold storage in an aquifer, natural ventilation,
46
triple glazing, and solar roof panels for power and heat.
Zero-carbon development in London
The municipality of London plans to build over 1,000 zero-carbon, affordable houses in the
Thames Gateway. These houses will be powered entirely by renewable energy sources such as
photovoltaic panels, wind turbines and waste incineration.
Zero-energy city Dongtan in China
Dongtan is an eco-city to be built near Shanghai with a planned population of half a million. It
is expected that 80,000 people will be living in Dongtan by 2020.
The city will be characterised by:
• Zero carbon emissions and low energy consumption (one third of typical energy demand).
• Optimal building design will use the benefits of shade and direct sunlight to reduce energy demand.
• Energy supply will be provided by combined heat and power systems, wind turbines,
biofuels and recycled organic material.
• Zero-carbon public transport. An integrated mix of residential, commercial and industrial areas will ensure that people can walk to most places they need to reach. Additionally, bicycles (powered by renewables) will be a major feature, as will boats fuelled by hydrogen.
Geothermal cooling (Zero emission buildings wedge)
The geothermal energy potential is vast. This resource amounts to about 50,000 times the energy of all oil and gas resources in the world (USDOE, 2003). Geothermal cooling uses the
same principle as geothermal heating, namely that the temperature at a certain depth in the
Earth remains constant year-through. In the winter we can use this relatively high temperature
to warm our houses. Conversely, we can use the relatively cold temperature in the summer to
cool our houses. There are several technical concepts available, but all rely on transferring the
heat from the air in the building to the Earth. A refrigerant is used as the heat transfer medium.
This concept is cost-effective (Duffield & Sass, 2004).
In Greece, there are already several applications of geothermal cooling and heating, using
either the underground water or the constant temperature of the ground. The cost of this
application is no longer considered prohibitive, especially if it is applied in new buildings
(attractive for hotels).
Solar cooling (Zero emission buildings wedge)
Solar cooling is the use of solar thermal energy or solar electricity to power a cooling appliance. Basic types of solar cooling technologies are: absorption cooling (uses solar thermal energy to vaporize the refrigerant); desiccant cooling (uses solar thermal energy to regenerate
47
(dry) the desiccant); vapour compression cooling (use solar thermal energy to operate a
Rankine-cycle heat engine); evaporative cooling; and heat pumps and air conditioners that can
be powered by solar photovoltaic systems (Darling, 2005). To drive the pumps only 0.05 kWh
of electricity is needed (instead of 0.35 kWh for regular air conditioning) (Austrian Energy
Agency, 2006).
48
5.3
Low carbon vision
This section presents the low carbon vision for Greece, surveying the emission reduction
achieved in the low carbon vision per sector and in total.
Industry
Low-hanging fruit
Low-hanging fruit for reducing greenhouse gas emissions in industries include
1. Promotion of natural gas in thermal uses,
2. Improving energy-efficiency by efficient motor systems,
3. Improved process control systems and energy monitoring
4. Reduced heat consumption in industries by pinch analysis
5. Increased use of combined heat and power.
Innovation
Innovative measures for further reducing greenhouse gas emissions in industries
include:
1. Energy efficiency improvement by emerging technologies, e.g. separation
membranes in the chemical industry
2. Material efficiency such as improving amount of packaging material
3. Increased recycling,
4. Reduction of non-CO2 greenhouse gases by catalytic reduction
5. Promotion of solar and biomass thermal energy, and
6. Reducing process emissions from cement industry.
GHG intensity decrease 6
Reference scenario:
Low carbon vision:
0.8% per year
3.6% per year
70
Resulting GHG
emissions in industry
GHG emissions (Mtonne CO2eq)
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
2005
2010
2015
Frozen efficiency level
2020
2025
Reference scenario
2030
2035
2040
Low carbon scenario
2045
2050
Low hanging fruit
6
Greenhouse gas intensity decrease means a decrease of greenhouse gas emissions per unit of GDP.
Reductions are based on frozen efficiency level.
49
Transport
Lowhanging fruit
Greenhouse gas emissions from road transport account for 85% of total direct greenhouse gas emissions from transport. Low-hanging fruit for reducing greenhouse gas
emissions from transport involves improving the energy efficiency of cars and trucks.
For example, average fuel consumption of cars in Greece is currently about 7 litre
gasoline equivalent (ge)/100 km7. We assume that the average fuel consumption of
cars and trucks in 2050 can decrease to 3 litre ge/100 (t)km, cost effectively. Stricter
CO2 rules for automotive sector should contribute towards this goal.
Innovation
Further emission reduction can be achieved by:
1. Reducing volume increase of car transport per capita in period 2000-2050
from 137% to 50% e.g. by encouraging working from home
2. Shift passenger and freight transport to efficient water and rail
3. Further improvement of fuel efficiency of road transport to 1-2 litre ge/100
km in 2050.
4. 10% CNG buses in 2050 and 30% buses with hydrogen from RES in 2050
5. 10% ecologically safe biofuels in 2050 and 8% in 2020
GHG intensity decrease
Reference scenario:
Low carbon vision:
0.6% per year
4.6% per year
70
Resulting
GHG emissions in
transport
GHG emissions (Mtonne CO2eq)
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
2005
2010
2015
2020
Frozen efficiency level
7
2025
2030
Reference scenario
2035
2040
Low hanging fruit
2045
2050
Low carbon scenario
This is roughly equivalent to 175 g CO2/km.
50
Households and services
Low-hanging
fruit
Low-hanging fruit for reducing greenhouse gases in this sector are
1. Thermal insulation of external walls,
2. Weather proofing (sealing) of openings,
3. Replacement of inefficient boilers, air conditioning units, appliances and lighting with efficient ones,
4. Maintenance of central heating installations for hotels and hospitals and
5. Improvement of building design.
6. Combined heat and power generation (60 PJ heat from CHP plants in 2050).
We assume 2% per year cost-effective energy efficiency improvement (compared to
frozen efficiency level) in buildings8.
Innovation
Additional measures for the household and services sector are:
Innovative energy-efficiency measures (assuming 3.5% per year energyefficiency improvement compared to frozen efficiency level). Measures include
e.g. thermal insulation of roofs, solar collectors for hot water, natural ventilation, heat pumps and combined heat and power generation.
Zero-energy dwellings and office buildings in both new and renovated buildings. We assume that 25% of the building stock in 2050 consists of zero emission buildings and 5% in 2020.
Use biomass for 15% of heat demand in buildings in 2050 (7.5% in 2020)
GHG intensity decrease
Reference scenario:
Low carbon vision:
0.5% per year
9.1% per year
35
Resulting
GHG emissions in
households
and services
GHG emissions (Mtonne CO2eq)
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
2005
2010
2015
Frozen efficiency level
2020
2025
Reference scenario
2030
2035
2040
Low carbon scenario
2045
2050
Low hanging fruit
8
The energy-efficiency improvement for power consumption does not influence direct emissions from
households and services, but limits the amount of power generation and therefore reduces emission in
the energy supply sector.
51
Agriculture
Lowhanging
fruit
Low-hanging fruit for reducing CH4 emissions in agriculture include
1. anaerobic digestion of manure (implementation 80% in 2050) and
2. improving livestock diets (CH4 emissions from enteric fermentation -11% in
2050).
N2O emissions can be reduced by spreader maintenance and CO2 emissions by efficiency
improvements of e.g. equipment, pumps, heating etc.
The low-hanging fruit wedge also includes the measures from the reference scenario belonging to the waste sector.
Innovation
Further emission reductions can be achieved by adding propionate precursors to livestock
diets (additional abatement potential 8% in 2050) and the reduction of N2O from soils by
fertilizer free zones and sub- optimal levels of fertilizer use.
GHG intensity decrease
Reference scenario:
Low-carbon vision:
1.3% per year
2.5% per year
25
Resulting
GHG emissions in agriculture
GHG emissions (Mtonne CO2eq)
20
15
10
5
0
2005
2010
2015
Frozen efficiency level
2020
2025
Reference scenario
2030
2035
Low hanging fruit
2040
2045
2050
Low carbon scenario
52
Energy supply
Power generation increases from 59 TWh in 2006 to 136 TWh in 2050, in the reference scenario. We assume that by implementing energy-efficiency9 measures
(see Figure 22 in end-use sectors buildings and industries); power generation in
the low carbon vision is reduced by 1.4% per year in comparison to the reference
scenario in the period 2005-2020. Power generation in the low carbon vision
amounts then to 73 TWh in 2050 (see Figure 16).
200
Development
power generation
Power generation (TWh)
150
Frozen ef f iciency
100
Ref erence scenario
Low carbon vision
50
0
2000
2010
2020
Figure 16 Power de mand
2030
2040
2050
in low car bon vision (TWh) com pared t o the
reference scenario and the fr ozen efficiency level
The carbon intensity of power generation is currently high in Greece with
approximately 750 g/kWh (based on IEA, 2007). This is a result of a large share
of coal-fired power generation (61%).
Fuel mix
9
The typical lifetime of power plants is 30 to 40 years. This means that by 2050 the
power generation park will be totally renewed. This gives a large potential for
low-carbon power generation such as renewable power and low-carbon fossil
power. The figure below shows the fuel mix for power generation in 2005, 2020
and 2050 in the low carbon vision.
Energy-efficiency improvement here means a decrease of electricity demand per unit of GDP.
53
80.0
70.0
60.0
Power generation (TWh)
Wave
PV
50.0
Wind pow er
CSP
Geothermal
40.0
Hydro pow er
Biomass
Oil
30.0
Coal
Natural Gas
20.0
10.0
0.0
2005
2020
2050
Figure 17 Fuel mix for power generation in 2005, 2020 and 2050 in the
low carbon vision
The installed capacity for power generation in 2050 consists of 4300 MW natural
gas-fired power plant with carbon capture and storage (CCS), 2400 MW lignitefired with CCS, 900 MW biomass, 12100 MW wind, 3600 MW hydro power,
1000 MW geothermal, 1500 MW concentrated solar thermal power (CSP), 1800
MW solar photovoltaic power (PV) and 300 MW wave.
Power generation in CHP plants is expected to increase in the low carbon vision
from 8 TWh in 2005 (IEA, 2007) to 17 TWh in 2050. This means that 50% of the
fossil and biomass power plants are CHP plants.
Total power generation by renewable energy sources is 42 TWh (24 in 2020), corresponding to 58% of power generation in 2050 (35% in 2020). Intermittent renewables (PV, wave and wind power) account for 32% of power generation in
2050 (and 22% in 2020).
GHG intensity decrease
Reference scenario:
Low carbon vision:
1.1% per year
8.4% per year
54
160
Resulting GHG
emissions in energy supply
GHG emissions (Mtonne CO2eq)
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
2005
2010
2015
Frozen efficiency level
2020
2025
Reference scenario
2030
2035
Low hanging fruit
2040
2045
2050
Low carbon scenario
55
5.3.1
Total emi ssi on reduction
Figure 18 shows the development of GHG emissions in the low carbon vision. The “lowhanging fruit” wedges (1,3,5,7,9) reduce greenhouse gas emissions in comparison to the frozen
efficiency level by 46% and the “innovation” wedges (2,4,6,8,10) by 40% in 2050. As can be
seen in Figure 18, the low-hanging fruit options are enough to reduce the frozen efficiency
level emissions below the ‘with measures’ reference scenario. Considering low-hanging fruit
measures are those that are cost-effective, this point illustrates that the reference scenario can
easily be made more ambitious without extra costs.
350
GHG emissions (Mtonne CO2eq)
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
Frozen efficiency level
Reference scenario
Low hanging fruit
60% reduction
80% reduction
Low carbon scenario
2050
Figure 18 Low car bon scenario f or 2050
56
Figure 19 shows greenhouse gas emissions per sector in 1990, in the reference scenario (ref)
and in the low carbon vision for the years 2020 and 2050.
100
90
Mtonne CO2eq
80
70
1990
60
2020 ref
50
2020 low
40
2050 ref
2050 low
30
20
10
0
Energy
supply
Transport
Industry
Waste
Agriculture
Buildings
Figure 19 Greenhouse gas emissions per sector in 1990, 2020 and 2050 for the
reference scenario (ref) and the low car bon vision.
Figure 20 shows the development of greenhouse gas emissions per sector in the low carbon vision from 1990 and 2005 to 2020 and 2050.
70
60
Mtonne CO2eq
50
1990
40
2005
2020
30
2050
20
10
0
Energy supply
Transport
Industry
Waste
Agriculture
Buildings
Figure 20 GHG emission s per s ector in 2005, 2020 and 2050 in low car bon vision
Table 14 shows the percentage emission reduction per sector. Total greenhouse gas emissions
in 1990 are 109 Mtonne CO2eq.
57
Ta ble 14 G HG emission reduction per sect or in t he low carbon vision
GHG emissions (Mtonne
CO2eq)
1990
Emission reduction compared to 1990
Emission reduction compared to 2005
Emission reduction compared to reference scenario
2020
2050
2005
2020
2050
2020
2050
2020
2050
Energy Supply
43
58
48
3
10%
-93%
-18%
-95%
-28%
-97%
Industry
23
28
19
13
-15%
-41%
-30%
-52%
-47%
-72%
Buildings
6
12
9
0.4
59%
-93%
-25%
-96%
-42%
-98%
Agriculture
17
15
13
12
-21%
-30%
-10%
-20%
-22%
-43%
Transport
16
23
16
7
1%
-55%
-32%
-70%
-46%
-84%
5
3
2
1
-59%
-82%
-34%
-71%
0%
0%
139
107
36
-2%
-67%
-23%
-74%
-36%
-84%
Waste
Total
LUCF)
(excl.
109
Total emission reduction in comparison to 1990 level is 67% in 2050 (and 74% compared to
2005). Emission reduction (compared to 1990) per sector ranges from 30% in agriculture to
93% for the power sector in 2050. If we compare emission reductions with 2005, reduction
percentages are generally higher except for waste and agriculture, where the 2005 emissions
level is below the 1990 level. Emission reductions compared to the reference scenario are 36%
reduction with respect to 2020 and 84% compared to 2050.
Table 15 and Figure 21 give the emission reduction per wedge in comparison to the frozen efficiency level.
Ta ble 15 C ontribution of emission reduction per wedge in comparison t o total emissions in frozen efficiency level
Wedge 1: “Industrial efficiency”
Wedge 2: “Emerging Industry”
Wedge 3: “Hybrid Transport”
Wedge 4: “Shifting Transport”
Wedge 5: “Efficient Buildings”
Wedge 6: “Zero emissions buildings”
Wedge 7: “ Efficient farming”
Incl. Waste
Wedge 8: “Low GHG farming”
Wedge 9: “Efficient energy supply”
Wedge 10: “Emerging clean power”
Total emission reduction in wedges
Total emissions frozen efficiency level
Emission reduction
(Mtonne CO2eq)
2020
2050
4
2%
10
14
7%
34
6
3%
21
16
7%
31
5
2%
14
6
3%
17
6
1
34
13
105
212
3%
0%
16%
6%
49%
100%
15
4
100
46
291
328
3%
11%
6%
9%
4%
5%
5%
1%
30%
14%
89%
100%
58
100%
90%
Wedge 10
80%
Wedge 9
70%
Wedge 8
60%
Wedge 7 (incl waste)
Wedge 6
50%
Wedge 5
40%
Wedge 4
30%
Wedge 3
Wedge 2
20%
Wedge 1
10%
0%
2020 % of FEL
2050 % of FEL
Figure 21 Contribution of emission reduction per wedge in comparison to total
emissions in frozen efficiency level (FEL)
In Figure 22 we present an overview of the GHG emission reductions in the low carbon vision
due to energy efficiency measures and reductions due to other measures. Energy efficiency
measures in total contribute 54% to emission reductions, while other meaures contribute 46%.
For the power sector only, energy efficiency measures in buildings and industry (and thus
leading to a decreasing energy demadn) is reponsible for 55% of power sector reductions, while
other measures (such as using renewable energy and carbon capture and storage) are
responsible for the remaining 45%.
59
Cost-effective energy-efficiency improvement in buildings
and industries - less energy demand
Recycling and material efficiency in industry
Cost-effective energy-efficiency improvement in buildings
20%
Innovative efficient cars, trucks and buses
Cost-effective energy-efficiency improvement in industry
Cost-effective efficient trucks
46%
5%
Innovative energy-efficiency improvement in buildings
Innovative efficient w ater transport
5%
5%
3%
3%
1%
1%
1%
1%
2%
2%
2%3%
Innovative energy-efficiency improvement in industry
Cost-effective efficient cars
Modal shift freight
Zero-energy buildings
Cost-effective energy-efficiency improvement in agriculture
Modal shift passengers
Other reductions
Figure 22 Breakdown GHG emission reductions due to energy efficiency measures
(54% of t otal emission r eductions) and other measures (46% of t otal
emission reductions)
60
5.3.2
Costs
Average costs for the low carbon vision are estimated to be around 20 €/tonne CO2eq. This cost
estimate is based on the cost assumptions given in Table 16 (see Appendix for details).
Ta ble 16 Cost assumptions in 2050 (based on Hendriks et. al (2002), Hoogwijk
(2004), Sarafidis et al. (2002))
Costs (€/tonne CO2eq) in 2050
Carbon capture and storage from power plants
Low-hanging fruit energy-efficiency improvement
Innovative energy-efficiency improvement
Improved material efficiency and recycling
Modal shift car and truck to rail/water
Biofuels for transport
Natural gas buses
Biomass for households and services
Reduce volume of car traffic
Zero emissions buildings
Improved diets of livestock
Solar thermal energy use in industries
Biomass thermal energy use in industries
Reducing HFC emissions from refrigeration and air conditioning equipment
Hydro power
Biomass power generation
Wind power generation
Concentrated solar power
Solar photovoltairc power
Geothermal power
Wave power
42
0
20
0
100
50
20
20
0
5
40
185
-44
15
15
15
25
40
50
50
50
A cost benefit analysis is not included in this study. It could, however, be examined in a later
stage, since with the current evolution of oil prices, such an analysis could show that low
carbon policies would also profit generating policies, or at least would not fail a cost-benefit
test even when environmental benefits are left out.
In any case. the uncertainties in the cost estimates are very high. Table 17 shows total costs for
Greece with different average costs for emission abatement.
61
Ta ble 17 C osts of mitigating GHG emissions by 6 0% and 80% in 2050
Average costs
(€/tonne CO2eq)
0
10
20
30
40
50
100
Costs in bln €/yr in 2050 (current prices)
60% GHG reduction
80% GHG reduction
10
(190 Mt CO2eq/yr )
(215 Mt CO2eq/yr)
0
0
2
2
4
4
6
6
8
9
10
11
19
22
Table 17 shows that 67% greenhouse gas emission reduction in 2050 at an average cost of 20
€/tonne CO2eq is equal to annual costs of ~4 bln €. This is equivalent to 0.7% of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in Greece in 2050 (560 bln €) in the reference scenario.
The cost estimate does not take peripheral benefits of reduced fossil fuel consumption into account (such as reduced pollution, decreased fossil fuel dependence, health improvement). Investments in energy-efficiency generally lead to avoided costs for new heat and power generation capacity. The International Energy Agency (IEA) has estimated that $700 billion invested
in energy efficiency worldwide between now and 2030 would result in returns of more than
$1.4 trillion in terms of avoided supply-side investment (SDI, 2006).
Moreover, the costs resulting from the effects of climate change are not taken into account. Research by Tufts University in the US (2006)11 has shown that the world could face economic
damage of up to €16 trillion annually by 2100 if it fails to prevent temperatures rising by 2 degrees Celsius or more. This would equate to 6-8% of global economic output at that time. However, this figure is likely to be an underestimate as it does not include the costs of biodiversity
nor of unpredictable events such as the collapse of the Gulf Stream. According to Tufts University economists, the true costs of climate change are incalculable. The costs of combating
global warming, on the other hand, are estimated to be much lower, amounting to €2 trillion to
avoid €9 trillion in annual damage. In the same context, the Stern Review (Stern et al., 2006)
contains valuable and crucial points on the costs of climate change. The basic message is that
the costs of stabilising the climate are significant but manageable; delay would be dangerous and much more costly. The benefits of strong and early action far outweigh the economic
costs of not acting. There is still time to avoid the worst impacts of climate change, if we take
strong action now.
10
In comparison to extrapolated reference scenario in 2050 (236 Mtonne CO2eq). Emissions must go
down to 22-44 Mtonne CO2eq in 2050 to achieve a reduction of 60-80% of greenhouse gas emission
reduction in comparison to 1990 emissions (109 Mtonne CO2eq).
11
Climate Change - the Costs of Inaction. Global Development and Environment Institute. Tufts University. United States. Research for The Big Ask, Friends of the Earth's climate campaign.
62
5.3.3
Road maps for policy making
In Greece, the final energy consumption increased by 27% during the 1990s, reaching 23.1
Mtoe in 2003 (MEPPPW, 2006). Energy demand exhibited the sharpest increase among all
European countries (Sarafidis et al., 2002). CO2 emissions per capita have climbed from 11
tonne/capita in 1990 to 12 tonne/capita in 2000, while the EU-25 average dropped. In order to
achieve the low carbon vision described in this study it is therefore important to start immediately with the formulation of policies for implementing the measures. The following issues
should be taken into account in short term decision making.
Transport
• The implementation of standards for energy-efficiency of vehicles with fuel efficiency
of average cars on the market reaching gradually the 1-212 litre ge/100 km in 2050 A
difficulty with this measure is that it will need to be implemented in a European context.
• Historically, improvements in the fuel efficiency of cars have been compensated by an
increase in car weight and size (Graus and Worrell, 2006). The average weight of new
cars in all IEA countries has increased over the past 10 years (IEA, 2007b). New safety
and convenience features make cars ever heavier, with an associated penalty in fuel
use. This trend towards the purchase of larger cars needs to be discontinued if the desired energy-efficiency improvement is to be attained.
• The growth in the volume of car transport by capita should be discouraged. In the low
carbon vision we assume that the volume of car transport per capita increases from
12000 km per capita in 2000 to 22000 km per capita in 2050. This is a much lower
growth than the growth in the reference scenario where car transport increases to 34000
km per capita. One reason for the growth in car transport is an increase of car ownership. In the past car ownership has increased from 0.17 in cars per capita 1990 to 0.35
in 2004 (IEA, 2007b). Still car ownership is relatively low in Greece in comparison to
other countries IEA countries (0.5 cars per capita in Austria, 0.6 in Italy, 0.7 in the US)
and is therefore expected to continue to grow in the future. The volume of car traffic
may be limited by e.g. encouraging working from home, improved (covered) cycle
tracks and regulating traffic in cities (where 6.5 million people live), promoting use of
public transport, hybrid cars, toll, and carpooling. Improved cycle tracks can play a role
in discouraging the tendency towards increased car transport over short distances.
• In the low carbon vision, transport by rail increases considerably, meaning that investments are needed in rail infrastructure. These investments can be e.g. in light rail systems in cities and infrastructure for freight transport by rail.
Power
Thermal power plants have a typical lifetime of 30-40 years, meaning that the current power
plants will be replaced by new power plants in the period up to 2050. This is an excellent opportunity for implementing renewable power generation and clean fossil power generation.
Power generating capacity in the low carbon vision in 2050 contains the following plants:
12
This is roughly equivalent to 40 g CO2/km.
63
•
•
•
•
Three or four gas-fired power plants with carbon capture and storage with a total capacity of 4300 MW. The preferred technology is combined-cycle with an energyefficiency of at least 58% (based on net calorific value).
Two coal-fired plant with CCS with a total capacity of 2400 MW. This should be stateof-the art power plants with an energy-efficiency of at least 46%.
One or two biomass-fired power plants with a capacity of 900 MW with an energyefficiency of at least 43%.
Renewable power generation: 12100 MW wind, 3600 MW hydro power, 1000 MW
geothermal, 1500 MW concentrated solar thermal power (CSP), 1800 MW solar photovoltaic power (PV) and 300 MW wave. Intermittent renewables (wind, PV and wave)
account for 32% of power generation in 2050.
Power generation in CHP plants is expected to increase in the low carbon vision from 8 TWh in
2005 (IEA, 2007) to 17 TWh in 2050. This means that 50% of the fossil and biomass power
plants are CHP plants.
Agriculture
• Policies should be implemented aimed at reducing CH4 and N2O emissions from agriculture. These policies can be aimed at increasing anaerobic digestion of manure, improving diets, fertilizer-free zones and spreader maintenance.
Households and services
• The implementation of zero-energy buildings should be encouraged. This can be done
e.g. by implementing tight standards for maximum energy demand in dwellings and
services buildings.
• Power consumption by household electric appliances has displayed strong growth in
recent times. It is important therefore to implement policies aimed at improving the energy-efficiency of appliances, including a reduction of standby power consumption,
e.g. by implementing standards.
Industry
• Policies are needed aimed at the implementation of current best practice technologies
and product design (less material consumption), as well as the development of future
energy-efficient technologies.
When looking at a greenhouse gas emission reduction of 60-80% in a period of 50 years it is
important to encourage innovation in the field of energy-efficient technologies. In order to encourage innovation it is important to subsidise R&D. However, subsidies for R&D have their
limitations. A considerable free-rider effect can emerge. Other options for encouraging innovation are (Blok, 2005b):
• People or research groups that have been successful in energy innovation could be
given extra resources for new innovation projects.
• Competitions can be organised for ideas on energy efficient technologies.
64
•
•
•
•
Technology development covenants can be used in which the government and companies reach an agreement to work together to achieve a concrete technological goal.
Voluntary agreements with companies emitting GHGs is also a policy measure to be
considered.
Technology-forcing standards can be implemented in which the government stipulates
a standard that will only come into force after some time (such as a decade). Generally,
the industry concerned will not currently be able to comply with the standard, so it will
be forced to develop new technology. One example of a technology-forcing standard is
the Californian requirement that zero-emission vehicles should take a certain market
share in the future.
Another option is technology procurement, where a large buyer of equipment (or a
group of buyers) sets ambitious standards regarding the energy efficiency of the
equipment it proposes to buy. If the buyer(s) purchase(s) a sufficiently large share of
the production of a particular product, the suppliers will be motivated to develop or
market the efficient equipment. A technology procurement approach in Sweden was
successful in increasing the energy efficiency of heat pumps by 30% while lowering
their cost by 30%.
Market transformation policies, consisting of a tailored mix of subsidies for the introduction of new energy-efficient technologies, demonstration projects, procurement and
standards.
o Market introduction subsidies. Although subsidies have their disadvantages
(free-rider effects, relatively high costs to the government), they can be effective, especially in the early stages of market introduction of energy-efficient
technologies. In any case, before the promotion of the subsidies, a thorough
analysis is needed in order to identify and avoid their potential adverse
effects.
o Demonstration project schemes. In the case of large-scale industrial equipment,
the last step in scaling up to a commercial or near-commercial scale is relatively expensive and it entails considerable risks. New technologies often
strand at just this point. Therefore it is still necessary and useful for governments to support demonstration projects.
o Recycling of tax revenues associated with environmental taxes to the industry
for the promotion of environmental friendly or energy saving R&D is another
policy option.
It is better for policies to be implemented in an international context, to avoid market distortions and the leakage of emissions to other countries. Climate and energy policies are becoming
increasingly harmonized in EU countries thanks to EU legislation. However, a worldwide implementation is necessary for some policies.
International bunker fuels
Emissions from international bunker fuels are not included in this analysis. As was stated in
Chapter 3, these emissions account for 8% of total GHG emissions in the Greece in 2005. It is
therefore important that these emissions are addressed within the policy making arena. Options
65
for reducing emissions from international bunker fuels include energy-efficient ships and aircrafts, intelligent logistics for freight, the application of fuel cells, and the use of biofuels.
Additionally, the current growth of air transport needs to be discouraged, e.g. by price
(dis)incentives. The emission growth of greenhouse gas emissions from international aviation
was 3% per year between 1990 and 2004 (UNFCCC, 2007).
Biomass
Biomass is currently most cost-effective when used directly; e.g. for heat and power generation.
Conversion of biomass to hydrogen, biofuels or feedstock for the petrochemical industry is less
cost effective. We therefore assume that biomass will mainly be used for heating and power
generation.
In 2006, 24 MW of biomass capacity was installed (MinDev, 2007). Requests for permits have
been submitted and approved for another 32 MW until 2010 (CRES, 2007). Total biomass use
in the low carbon vision is 63 PJ per year in 2020 and 119 PJ per year in 2050 (see table below).
Ta ble 18 Biom ass consumption in l ow carbon vision (PJ)
Use of biomass for heating (15% of heat demand in buildings
in 2050)
Biomass for power generation (4 TWh per year, ~1 GW installed capacity in 2050; 1.2 TWh and 0.3 GW in 2020)
Biofuels for transport (10% of fuel consumption for transport
in 2005 in 2050 and 8% in 2020)
Biomass in industries
Total biomass (PJ)
2020
12
2050
20
4
14
22
27
2
63
5
119
Energy-efficiency improvement
In this low carbon vision energy-efficiency plays an important role in reducing greenhouse gas
emissions. In terms of policies, it is important to take into account the rebound effect. Energyefficiency improvements do not automatically mean a decrease in energy consumption and accompanying emissions. The Khazzoom-Brookes postulate argues that improvements in energy
efficiency can be compensated by an increase of energy consumption since the lower effective
costs of energy spur consumption (Rubin & Tal, 2007). This can be solved by setting absolute
emission ceilings rather then relative emission ceilings (e.g. a carbon budget per household or
industry).
66
6 Conclusions and recommendations
This study has defined a low carbon vision for Greece in 2050, in which greenhouse gas emissions are reduced by 60-80% in 2050 below 1990 levels, while maintaining an economic
growth of 3% per year. It was found that, in order to achieve the emission reduction, all possible options for greenhouse gas mitigation need to be fully implemented, from strong energyefficiency improvement to renewable energy use and carbon capture and storage (only in a secured social and environmental way). In the low carbon vision, greenhouse gas emissions reduce from 109 Mtonne CO2eq in 1990 to 36 Mtonne CO2eq in 2050, which is a reduction of
67%, compared to 1990 and 74% compared to 2005. In terms of greenhouse gas emissions per
capita, these reduce from 10.8 tonne CO2eq per capita in 1990 to 3.2 tonne per capita in 2050.
By comparison, emissions per capita in 2005 were 12.5 tonne per capita.
The largest emission reduction can be achieved in the energy supply and residential/tertiary
sectors, where emissions can be reduced by 93% in 2050 in comparison to emissions in 1990
(and 97%, respectively 98% compared to the reference scenario in 2050). In the waste sector,
emissions reduce by 82%. Within the transport industry, and agriculture sectors, emissions reduce by 55%, 41% and 30% respectively (all compared to 1990 emissions).
Important measures for reducing greenhouse gas emissions are:
• Improving energy-efficiency of appliances, industrial processes, buildings, cars, trucks,
rail and water.
• Recycling and material efficiency in industry
• Phasing out HCFC-22 production and reducing HFC emissions from air-conditioning
and refrigeration equipment
• Limiting the growth of passenger and freight transport and shifting them to rail and water
• Additional use of renewable energy sources:
o Renewable power generation of 42 TWh/y in 2050
o Biofuels make up 10% of transport fuel use (27 PJ in 2050)
o Use biomass for 15% of heat demand in buildings and use biomass in industries.
• Reducing non-CO2 greenhouse gases in agriculture by
o Anaerobic digestion of manure
o Reducing CH4 from enteric fermentation of cattle by improved diets
o Reducing N2O from soils by spreader maintenance and fertilizer- free zones
In order to achieve the low carbon vision it is important to start immediately by formulating
policies for implementing the measures. When looking at a greenhouse gas emission reduction
67
of 60-80% in a period of 50 years, innovation in the field of energy-efficient technologies will
play an important role. Besides subsidising R&D, innovation can be stimulated by e.g.:
• Technology development covenants in which the government and companies agree to
work together to achieve a concrete technological goal.
• Technology-forcing standards in which the government stipulates a standard that will
only come into force after some time.
• Market transformation policies, consisting of a tailored mix of subsidies for the introduction of new energy-efficient technologies, demonstration projects, procurement and
standards.
Ideally, policies are implemented in an international context, to avoid market distortions and
the leakages of emissions to other countries.
68
R e f e r en c e s
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74
A p p e n d i x 1 : D e s c r i p t i o n o f w e d g es
Wedge 1: “Industrial efficiency”
Cost effective options for reducing emissions from industry included in this study involve the
following improvements:
Description
Efficient mo- Large energy savings in industry can be achieved by
tor systems
improving the energy-efficiency of motor systems.
Industrial electric motor systems take up a large
share of the electricity use in industry (approximately 65%, De Keulenaer et al., 2004). Technologies for reducing electricity consumption in electric
motor systems include variable speed drives, high
efficiency motors and efficient pumps, compressors
and fans. The economic savings potential for EU-15
is estimated to be 29% of the electricity consumed
by industrial motor systems (De Keulenaer et al.,
2004). The technical electricity savings potential for
a motor system is estimated to be around 55%.
Pinch analysis In industrial plants that have multiple heating and
cooling demands, the use of process integration
techniques may significantly improve efficiencies.
Key assumptions
Assume 25% efficiency
improvement in 2020
and 60% in 2050 for all
cost-effective measures
in this wedge.
Assume 25% efficiency
improvement in 2020
and 60% in 2050 for all
cost-effective measures
The methodology involves the thermodynamically in this wedge.
optimised linkage of hot and cold streams in a
process. The energy savings potential using pinch
analysis far exceeds that achievable by well-known
conventional techniques, such as heat recovery from
boiler flue gas, insulation and steam trap
management. There is usually a large potential for
improvement in overall site efficiency through interunit integration via utilities, typically amounting to
10 to 20% with a two-year payback (Kumana, 2000;
Linnhoff March, 2000).
Improved
The use of energy monitoring and process control Assume 25% efficiency
process con- systems can play an important role in energy improvement in 2020
trol
management and in reducing energy use. Typically, and 60% in 2050 for all
75
energy and cost savings are around 5% or more for
many industrial process control systems (Worrell
and Galitsky, 2005). Although energy management
systems are already widely distributed in numerous
industrial sectors, the systems’ performance can
often still be improved. In many cases, only one
process or a limited number of energy streams were
monitored and managed. Payback times range
generally from 6 to 18 months (Worrell and
Galitsky, 2005).
Combined
The principle of the combined heat and power proHeat
and duction (CHP) is to use the remaining heat from the
Power (CHP)
power generation for example for heating buildings
or in industrial processes as process heat. A lot of
primary energy can be saved by this simultaneous
production of heat and power (Van Oostvorn, ed.,
2003).
cost-effective measures
in this wedge.
Assume 25% efficiency
improvement in 2020
and 60% in 2050 for all
cost-effective measures
in this wedge.
The share of electricity from CHP in total gross
electricity production in the EU-25 was 10.2% in
2004. It was significantly higher in the new Member
States (15.8%) than in the pre-2004 EU-15, where it
was 9.5%. In 2002, the shares were 9.9%, 15.4% and
9.2%, respectively (EEA, 2007). The share of CHP
in total electricity production is lowest in Greece
(~2%). The poor natural gas infrastructure has
hampered the development of CHP in Greece so far.
However, the gross electricity production in Greek
CHP plants increased from 819 GWh in 1994 to
3122 GWh in 2000 (+281%). Installed capacity in
the interconnected system in September 2007: 13
MW (HTSO, 2007). Improvements in the gas
network will open up the possibility for increased
use of CHP in the country.
CHP in industry using natural gas as a fuel will lead
to an overall energy demand reduction of 14 ktoe
and CO2 emission reduction (410 ktonne CO2eq in
2010). This emission reduction will mainly occur in
the energy supply sector. The measure has an estimated levelised cost of -32 €/tCO2 (and -84 €/tCO2
when social costs are included) (Sarafidis et al.,
2002).
76
Promotion of This measure has an estimated by Sarafidis et al.
natural gas in (2002) at a cost of -41 €/tCO2eq, and even more
negative when social costs are included. In 2010 it
thermal uses
can lead to 12 ktoe of thermal energy conservation
and 86 ktonne of CO2 emission reduction.
Energy con- Based on Sarafidis et al. (2002), energy conservation
servation
measures included in the 1st National Programme
have the potential to reduce thermal energy use by
measures
197 ktoe in 2010, electricity use by 31 ktoe in 2010,
and reduce CO2 emissions by 996 ktonne in 2010.
These measures cost -32 €/tCO2, and -84 €/tCO2
when social costs are included.
Assume 25% efficiency
improvement in 2020
and 60% in 2050 for all
cost-effective measures
in this wedge.
Assume 25% efficiency
improvement in 2020
and 60% in 2050 for all
cost-effective measures
in this wedge.
The total cost-effective greenhouse gas reduction potential in 2010 is nearly 20% of greenhouse
gas emissions in industry. We assume that there is a cost-effective potential for greenhouse gas
intensity decrease of 2% per year. This leads to a reduction of greenhouse gas intensity in 2020
of 25% and 60% in 2050.
77
Wedge 2:”Emerging Industry”
Description
Energy effi- Blok (2005) shows that an energy efficiency improvement
ciency
im- rate of 5% per year for new equipment, installations and
provement by buildings is feasible and has occurred in a number of energy
emerging
appliances over longer periods. This rate of energy effitechnologies
ciency improvement requires continuous innovation. For industrial process equipment and plants with a typical lifetime
of 30 years this amounts to an energy-intensity decrease of
3.5%/year13.
Examples of emerging industrial technologies: near-netshape casting in the iron and steel sector, separation membranes in the chemical industry and black liquor gasification. An important energy consuming step in the chemical
industry is cryogenic, pressurized product separation. An
alternative to this is membrane separation. The use of membranes for product separation reduces compression energy
requirements by 50% and separation energy requirements by
80% (Phylipsen et al, 1999).
Material effi- Another option is increased recycling (e.g. of iron and steel,
ciency and re- aluminium and plastics). Secondary aluminium production
cycling
from scrap consumes only 5 to 10% of the energy demand
for primary production because it involves remelting of the
metal rather than of the electrochemical reduction process
(Phylipsen et al., 1998).
Key assumptions
Additional GHG intensity decrease in comparison to Wedge 1 by
0.5% per year.
Greenhouse gas intensity decrease by 1% per
year due to improved
recycling and material
efficiency in comparison
to frozen efficiency
level.
In Greece recycling of steel packaging is currently the lowest of the EU countries with only 10% recycling in 2006
(Apeal, 2007). On average the EU recycles 66% of steel
packaging, with Belgium and Germany recycling 90% of
steel packaging. The recycling of plastics can reduce the
energy consumed by plastics production by two-thirds.
This leads in total together with low hanging
fruit and innovative
technologies to 3.5% per
year decrease of GHG
intensity in comparison
to frozen efficiency by
Energy can also be saved by improved material efficiency,
energy-efficiency
ime.g. by reducing the amount of packaging materials.
provement, CHP and
emerging technologies.
We assume that by increased recycling and material effiThis requires continuous
ciency the greenhouse gas emissions by industry can reduce
13
As a comparison, the “Action plan for energy-efficiency” by the Europen Commission (2006) gives a
potential for energy-efficiency improvement in industry of 3.3% per year in the period 2005 to 2020.
http://ec.europa.eu/energy/action_plan_energy_efficiency/doc/com_2006_0545_en.pdf
78
by 1% per year in comparison to frozen efficiency emis- efforts in innovation.
sions.
CO2 capture The storage of pure CO2 streams from industries is eco- No potential
and
storage nomically more attractive than the capture of carbon dioxide
from pure CO2 from flue gases.
streams
The total quantity of pure CO2 streams from industries emitted to the air is however estimated to be low in Greece because there is no ammonia production or hydrogen production or other production processes that result in a pure
stream of CO2.
Non-CO2
N2O emissions from industry are in Greece for 100% caused 90% reduction of N2O
GHG
by the production of nitric acid. N2O emissions from the emissions from nitric
production of nitric acid are reduced by catalytic reduction. acid production in comAccording to Bernstein et al. (2007), the mitigation poten- parison to frozen effitial at nitric acid plants can range from 70% to almost 100% ciency level.
depending on the catalyst and plant operating conditions.
The costs are around 3 €/tCO2-eq. We assume that 90% of Reduction of HFC emisN2O emissions can be reduced in comparison to frozen effi- sions from refrigeration
ciency level.
by 60% in comparison
to frozen efficiency
Emissions of F-gases in 2005 are 6 Mtonne CO2eq in Greece. level.
These emissions are mainly HFC emissions of which 40%
results from the production of HCFC-22 and 60% from re- Reduction of HFC emisfrigeration and air conditioning equipment.
sions from HFCF-22
production due to phase
HFCs are applied as a substitute for fluorinated and chlorin- out of production.
ated hydrocarbons (HCFC), which are internationally
banned under the Montreal protocol because of their role in
the destruction of stratospheric ozone. Mobile air conditioning is a significant source of HFC. This has increased in recent years and is expected to increase in future. HFC emissions from refrigeration and air conditioning can be reduced
by recovering HFCs when equipment is scrapped, reducing
leaks, and the use of alternative refrigerants, such as NH3,
hydrocarbons and CO2. According to Harnisch and
Hendriks (2000), the total abatement potential for HFC
gases in EU15 is 60% in 2015 at an average cost of 15
€/tonne CO2eq. We assume that HFC emissions from refrigeration can be reduced by 60% in 2050.
40% of the HFC emissions results from the production of
HFCFC-22. Trifluoromethane (HFC-23 or CHF3), is generated as a by-product during the manufacture of chlorodi-
79
fluoromethane (HCFC-22 or CHClF2) and emitted into the
atmosphere. The capture and destruction by thermal oxidation is a very effective option for reducing HFC-23 emissions at a cost of less than 0.20 €/tCO2-eq. By this method
emissions can be reduced by more than 90% (Bernstein et
al., 2007). In the reference scenario the production of
HCFC-22 is expected to be phased out due to regulation.
Promotion of
solar thermal
energy
Promotion of
biomass
in
thermal uses
Process CO2
emissions
PFC emissions from aluminium production in Greece are
fairly small, being only 0.01 Mtonne CO2eq in 2004. We assume no reduction of these emissions.
Sarafidis et al. (2002) made an estimation of the CO2 emission reduction potential for solar thermal energy in industry
in Greece. This is 40 ktoe of thermal energy conservation
and 123 ktCO2eq savings in 2010 at a cost of approximately
185 €/tCO2eq (150 €/tCO2eq if social costs are included). This
corresponds to 2% of energy-related CO2 emissions in industries in 2010. We assume that in 2050 solar thermal energy can reduce the energy-related greenhouse gas emissions in industry by 11%.
The promotion of biomass in thermal uses will cost -44
€/tCO2 (-80 when social costs are included) and will lead to
the following potential savings in 2010: 22 ktoe of thermal
energy and 70 ktonne CO2eq savings (Sarafidis et al., 2002).
This corresponds to 1% of energy-related greenhouse gas
emissions in 2010. We assume that biomass in thermal use
can reduce energy-related greenhouse gas emissions industry by 8% in comparison to frozen efficiency level in 2050
and 3% in 2020.
Emissions from industrial processes account for 8 Mtonne
of CO2 emissions in 2005. More than 80% of these emissions result from the production of cement. Bernstein et al.
(2007) estimates the potential for reducing process emission
from cement production at 30% on average. We assume that
this reduction can be achieved in 2050 in Greece. For 2020
we assume a reduction of 10%.
11% reduction of energy-related greenhouse
gas emissions in industry in comparison frozen
efficiency level in 2050.
In 2020 we assume 4%.
8% reduction of energyrelated CO2 emissions in
industry in comparison
to frozen efficiency
level in 2050. In 2020
we assume 3 %.
30% reduction of process emissions in 2050
and 10% in 2020 in
comparison to frozen
efficiency level.
80
Wedge 3: “Hybrid Transport”
The share of transport in final energy consumption was 35% in 2003 (MEPPPW, 2006). In
2005, 85% of all CO2 emissions from the transport sector were caused by road transport (Figure
23). Navigation (maritime fleet), civil aviation and railways each contributed 9%, 5% and 1%
respectively.
Economic development and improved living standards have a significant effect on the ownership of passenger cars. From 1990 to 2003, the number of passenger cars in Greece more than
doubled from 1.7 million to 3.8 million (MEPPPW, 2006). Cars per capita went up from 0.17
in 1990 to 0.35 in 2004 (IEA, 2007b). Despite this, Greece still has one of the lowest ownership
rates in the EU25. Of total motor vehicles in operation, 64% are passenger cars, 19% trucks,
16% motorcycles, 0.7% taxis and 0.3% buses (2003 data from MEPPPW, 2006). Between 1990
and 2004, total passenger-kilometres per capita grew by 50% in Greece (IEA, 2007b). This reflects the fact that Greece had relatively low levels of passenger travel in 1990 and is now
catching up with other IEA countries. Until 1992, Greece prohibited the use of diesel passenger
cars (excluding taxis) to decrease atmospheric pollution in Athens. However since 1992, diesel
cars up to 3.5 tons in Greece are allowed, except for the areas of Athens, Piraeus and Thessalonici. As a result, the number of diesel passenger cars increased from 50,000 in 1990 to approximately 310,000 in 2003. Since 1999, Law 2682 promotes the purchase of low polluting
vehicles with fiscal incentives such as tax reductions for electric, alternative and hybrid vehicles. These vehicles are also exempted from traffic restrictions e.g. access in the Athens city
centre (MureOdyssee, 2006).
The Greek maritime fleet is one of the largest in the world (15.5% of world shipping capacity
in 2002) and is growing. Freight shipping energy intensity in Greece is rather high within the
IEA due to a high proportion of short-haul trips (IEA, 2007b).
Due to the fact that Greece was one of the last European countries to develop a railway system,
the share of railway is small and the system is rather old-fashioned. This makes the aggregated
freight energy use per tonne-km high compared to other IEA countries (IEA, 2007b). Recent
modernization and extension of the railway system have proven costly, but new investments
will enable higher speeds and will reduce travelling times, leading to an expected increase of
railway use in the near future.
81
civil aviation
5%
railw ays
1%
navigation
9%
road
85%
Figure 23 Breakdown of CO2 emi ssions within the transport sect or UNFCCC (2007)
The renewal of the passenger car fleet (new technology cars constitute 60% of total passenger
cars in 2003) and the implied improvement of energy efficiency, limit the increase of GHG
emissions. However, this is offset by the increase in number of (large) passenger cars.
Key
assumptions
Passenger The CO2 intensity for passenger cars seems to be relatively low We assume
transport for Greece, only 142 grams per vehicle km in 2003. There was a that an avsharp decrease in the period 1998 to 2003 (see figure below).
erage fuel
intensity of
3
litre
220
Austria
ge/100
km
210
Denmark
200
for
the
Finland
190
whole
car
France
180
Germany
fleet can be
170
Greece
achieved
160
Italy
economi150
Netherlands
140
Norw ay
cally
in
130
United Kingdom
2050 with a
EU15
120
linear im1990
1992 1994
1996 1998
2000 2002
2004
plementation.
Fi gure 24 CO2 emissi ons of cars per vehicle km (Enerdata,
gCO2/km
Description
2006)
In 2003 the average fuel consumption for passenger cars in Greece
was 7.1 litre gasoline equivalent (ge)14/100 km (7.6 in EU15) (En14
15
1 litre of gasoline equivalent = 32 MJ (Lower Heating Value)
Based on 66 gram CO2/MJ gasoline and 32 MJ per litre g.e.
82
erdata, 2006). A voluntary agreement between the European
Commission and car manufacturers foresees the improvement of
the fuel efficiency of new cars to 140 g/km in 2008 and beyond
that in the future. The measure is expected to decrease GHG emissions by 0.4 Mt CO2eq in 2010 and 1.1Mt CO2eq in 2015.
gCO2/tkm
Freight
transport
In the longer term a significant potential is present for reducing
greenhouse gas emissions from passenger cars. Hybrid cars with a
fuel efficiency of 4 litre ge/100 km are already on the market and
cars are currently being developed with specific fuel use below 3
litre ge/100 km (Blok, 2005). We assume that an average fuel intensity of 3 litre ge/100 km for the whole car fleet can be achieved
economically in 2050 with a linear implementation. This corresponds to approximately 63 g CO2/v.km15.
The CO2 intensity for freight transport in Greece is currently rela- We assume
tively high with 225 gram/tkm. Emissions for EU-15 are 200 that the fuel
gram/tkm (see figure below).
intensity of
trucks and
cars
can
500
Austria
decrease to
450
Denmark
3
litre
Finland
400
France
ge/100
350
Germany
tonne-km,
300
Greece
costItaly
250
Netherlands
effectively.
200
Norw ay
150
United Kingdom
100
1990
EU15
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
Figure 25 CO2 emissions of r oad goods transport per tkm
(Enerdata, 2006)
Fuel consumption for hybrid trucks can be as low as 3-4 litre
ge/100 tonne-km (IEA/SMP, 2004). Energy demand for freight
can also be reduced by intelligent logistics, leading to an optimal
transportation of goods by a minimum number of trucks.
We assume that the fuel intensity of trucks and cars can decrease
to 3 litre ge/100 tonne-km, cost-effectively. This corresponds to
approximately 67 g CO2/t.km16. This is an improvement of 70% in
comparison to the greenhouse gas intensity in 2004.
16
Based on 70 gram CO2/MJ diesel and 32 MJ per litre g.e.
83
The calculations for transport are based on the frozen efficiency emission levels. In case greenhouse gas emissions grow linearly with GDP the total greenhouse gas emissions in transport
grow by 155% in 2050 (compared to 2005). This is in line with the growth of transport demand
in the reference scenario, where the growth in the volume of passenger transport is 3.4% per
year and the growth in freight transport is 3.0% per year.
84
Wedge 4: “Shifting Transport”
Description
Reduce
In the reference scenario transport by passenger car per capita
volume of increases by 137% in the period 2005-2050 from ~14438 km
car traffic
per capita in 2005 to ~34000 km per capita in 2050. This is
considered to be a very large growth of transport per capita.
We assume that this can be limited to 22000 km per capita.
This can be done by e.g. limiting the growth of commute
travel (encouraging working from home), limit business
travel by stimulating video phone conferencing, price incentives.
Freight transport per unit of GDP is forecasted to decrease in
the same period by 6%, from 0.21 per tonne per km (tkm) per
unit GDP to 0.20 tkm per unit GDP, so we will not assume
that this reduces even further.
Modal shift Energy consumption in Greece per transport mode in 2003
car to pub- (in MJ per passenger km (pkm)):
lic trans• Passenger car: 1.3MJ/pkm (Enerdata, 2006)
port
• Bus: 1.0 MJ/pkm (Enerdata, 2006)
• Rail: 0.8 MJ/pkm (Enerdata, 2006)
Key assumptions
Limit growth of
car transport per
capita from 137%
to 52%.
Shift of passenger
transport by car to
efficient rail by
5% in 2050.
The energy intensity for passenger
The current energy consumption for rail transport in Greece
transport by effiis 0.8 MJ/pkm. This is relatively high. Energy use by rail
cient rail is 60%
transport in EU is typically around 0.4 MJ/pkm (European
lower than by car.
Commission, 2003). Currently, the railway system is being
reconstructed and extended. By 2013 the system will be fin- Shift of passenger
ished. There will be a connection between Athens and the transport by car to
North of Greece, (e.g. Thessaloniki) which will be attractive efficient buses by
for passengers. We assume that the energy intensity for the 5% in 2050.
new railway system will be 0.4 MJ/pkm
The energy intensity for passenger
Below is a breakdown of passenger transport in 2000 in transport by effiGreece (in pkm) (European Commission, 2003):
cient bus is 45%
lower than by car.
85
4% 2%
14%
private cars and
motorcycles
public road transport
aviation
15%
inland navigation
65%
rail
Total 148 Gpkm in 2000.
Final energy demand of private cars and motorcycles was
39% of total final energy demand for road transport in 2000
(European Commission, 2003).
We assume that a modal shift of 5% of the passenger car
transport to rail transport can be achieved in 2050. This
means that the share of rail transport in total transport increases from 2% in 2000 to 5% in 2050. As a comparison,
rail transport in Japan has grown in a couple of decades to
30% rail transport in total passenger transport (IEA, 2007b).
Additionally we assume that 5% of car transport can shift to
efficient bus transport. This means that the share of bus
transport in total transport increases from 15% in 2000 to
18% in 2050. Average bus transport consumes 8 MJ/pkm
(IEA, 2007b). For the additional buses to be implemented in
the period 2005-2050 we assume that the average energyefficiency equals 0.7 MJ/pkm.
Shift
Energy consumption in Greece for freight transport in 2003 is
freight
(in MJ per tonne km (tkm)) (Enerdata, 2006):
from road
• Trucks: 4.7 MJ/tkm
to
water
• Rail: 1.0 MJ/tkm (IEA, 2007b)
and rail
• Inland navigation (within Greece): 2.7 MJ/tkm
10% of the freight
transport by road
can be shifted to
efficient
rail
transport and 8%
to water transport.
Below is a breakdown of freight transport in 2000 in Greece For water trans(in tkm) (European Commission, 2003):
port we assume
2.5 MJ/tkm and
for rail transport
0.2 MJ/tkm.
86
1%
32%
trucks
inland navigation
rail
67%
Total 27.5 Gtkm in 2000.
Inland navigation (from port to port) accounts for 32% of
freight transport in Greece. Freight transport by rail is very
limited in Greece, only 1% in 2000. On average the share of
freight transport by rail in total rail transport is 6% in IEA
countries (IEA, 2007). The Greek rail organisation plans to
extent the rail system in order to stimulate freight transport
by rail. The planning and construction for this have already
started.
We assume that 10% of the freight transport by road can be
shifted to efficient rail transport and 8% to water transport.
For water transport we assume 2.5 MJ/tkm and for rail transport 0.2 MJ/tkm. Average energy consumption for freight
transport by rail is 0.2 MJ/tkm in IEA countries in 2004
(IEA, 2007).
Final energy demand of freight transport by road was 34% of
total final energy demand for road transport in 2000 (European Commission, 2003).
Improve
Energy consumption in Greece for water transport of goods is
efficiency
more than 3 times higher than the typical fuel consumption in
of
water the EU (IEA, 2007); 2.7 MJ/tkm in comparison to 0.8
transport
MJ/tkm. We assume that the energy-efficiency of freight
transport by ship can be improved to 0.8 MJ/tkm in 2050.
Clean
CNG buses were introduced in the Athens public transport
buses
network in 2000. In 2005, 416 buses used natural gas as fuel
(MEPPPW, 2006), with consumption totalling 12 ktoe. Penetration of natural gas in public transport is expected to lead to
7 ktonne CO2eq estimated savings in 2005, 7 in 2010 and 12
in 2015.
Improvement of
efficiency of water transport by
70% in 2050.
Shift to CNG bus
reduces
greenhouse gas intensity per passenger
km by 20%. We
assume that 10%
of the buses conWith extra measures it is assumed to be possible to increase sume CNG in
the share of CNG buses to 10% of the bus fleet in 2050 and 2050 and that
87
Energyefficiency
Biofuels
that 30% of the bus fleet by 2050 runs on hydrogen produced 30% of the bus
in RES.
fleet by 2050 runs
on hydrogen produced in RES
Future developments are expected in the field of ultra- light 3.4% per energyvehicles and fuel cell cars, with efficiencies as low as 1-2 li- efficiency
imtre ge/100 km (Blok, 2005). If these cars are available by provement
for
2030, fuel intensity for cars could decrease to 1-2 litre ge/100 cars and trucks.
km in 2050 (from 7.1 litre ge/100 km in 2003). This corresponds to an energy-efficiency increase of 3.4 %/year.
Fuel consumption for highly efficient trucks can be as low as
1-2 litre ge/100 tonne-km (IEA/SMP, 2004). We assume that
the energy-efficiency of trucks can decrease from 10 litre
ge/100 tkm to 2 litre ge/100 km.
The average cost effectiveness of biofuels is less favourable
than the direct use of biomass for heat and power generation.
Costs for biofuels are estimated to be around 50-200 €/tonne
CO2 in the time frame 2010-2020. Costs for power generation
from biomass are estimated to be -50 for combustion, 0 for
gasification and 40 €/tonne CO2 for gasification combined
cycle in the time frame 2010-2020 (Kampman et al., 2006).
27 PJ biofuels in
2050 (equivalent
to 10% of road
transport
fuels
consumption in
2050) and 8% in
2020 (22 PJ)
We therefore assume that biomass will mainly be used for
heat and power generation and only to a lesser extent for biofuels in transport. However, large-scale biomass use is rendered difficult both by the dry weather and arid conditions
and by the sensitive nature of agriculture in Greece. Still, the
potential of energy production from biomass is encouraging
(CRES, 2007).
In the reference scenario the use of biofuels is 5.75% of the
total consumption of diesel and gasoline in road transport by
2010. This implies that in 2010, 148 konnes of biodiesel and
390 ktonnes of bioethanol need to be produced (MinDev,
2004), equivalent to approximately 20 PJ per year. We assume that this can be increased to 27 PJ per year in 2050,
equivalent to 10% of fuel consumption by road transport in
2005 and nearly 2000 ktonne CO2eq.17
17
Emission reduction from the use of biofuels in transport is currently approximately 35 grams/MJ
(European Commission, 2005b). We assume that in 2050 the reduction is 45 grams/MJ (equivalent to
66% of average CO2 intensity transport fuels).
88
Wedge 5: “Efficient Buildings”
The residential and tertiary sectors were responsible for a substantial fraction of the total final
energy demand in 2000 (approximately 22% for residential and 7% for the tertiary sector). In
2020 this will increase to 22% for residential and 10% for tertiary (MEPPPW, 2006). This consumption is mainly caused by space heating, space cooling, and domestic hot water production
in residential, public and commercial premises. Other energy uses were in the form of electricity for appliances and for operation of building services systems in residential, public and
commercial premises.
The share of greenhouse gases emitted by residential and tertiary sectors was respectively 8%
and 1% in 2005 (UNFCCC, 2007). The total energy consumption of residential buildings in
2010 is expected to increase by 10% compared with 2000, while the corresponding electric energy consumption is expected to increase by 27% (Balaras et al., 2007).
Only some cost-effective CO2 emission reduction measures until 2050 that are described below
are taken into account in the reference scenario.
Description
Improved
heat In general there are two ways to reduce energy use for space
insulation
and heating, either by reducing the required heat demand and/or
building design
by diminishing the required (fossil) fuel demand to fulfil the
heat demand through higher energy efficiency. The first route
comprises measures such as insulation and energy storage,
whereas the second consists of measures related to efficient
heating equipment, such as condensing boilers and heat
pumps. To calculate the overall energy savings potential and
associated CO2 emission reduction, measures in the first category have to be implemented before those in the second.
Key
assumptions
2% per year
costeffective energyefficiency
improvement
in buildings.
The actual total heating energy consumption averages 174.3
kWh/m2 throughout Europe. Greece’s consumption is rather
low averaging 108.4 kWh/m2, mainly due to its relatively
warm climate. There is however a lot to improve. For example, heating energy consumption averages 43 Wh/m2 HDD
(heating degree-days) in northern European countries but
jumps to 73 Wh/m2 HDD in Greece. Also on the cooling front
there is a lot to progress. The cooled floor area per inhabitant
averages 3.2 m2/inhabitant in EU-15 and reaches 5.8
m2/inhabitant in Greece. For 2020 these numbers are estimated as 6.4 for EU-15 and 16 for Greece.
89
Residential
Hellenic residential buildings in 2002 accounted for 25% of
total final energy consumption and consumed 33% of the total
electricity generated in the country and 22% of the total thermal energy. Of the energy required by the building sector,
Hellenic residential buildings consumed 53% of the electrical
and 91% of the thermal energy (Balaras et al., 2007). The total energy consumption of residential buildings in 2010 is expected to increase by 10% compared to 2000, while the corresponding electric energy consumption is expected to increase
by 27% (Balaras et al., 2007).
Tertiary
Hellenic non-residential buildings in 2002 accounted for 7%
of total final energy consumption and consumed 30% of the
total electricity generated in the country and 2% of the total
thermal energy. Of the energy required by the building sector,
Hellenic tertiary buildings consumed 48% of the electrical
and 9% of the thermal energy (Gaglia et al., 2007). The total
energy consumption of non-residential buildings in 2010 is
expected to increase over 30% compared with 2000, while the
corresponding electric energy consumption is expected to increase over 40%. This is due to the improved indoor environment quality that results in higher heating and cooling
loads (Gaglia et al., 2007).
1. Insulation
Large energy savings can be achieved by insulating buildings,
which is a measure that saves energy required for space heating by the prevention of heat losses through wall, roof, floor
or window surfaces.
The great majority of the Hellenic building stock is not thermally insulated due to the fact that the Hellenic Building
Thermal Insulation Regulation, which sets the minimum requirements for thermal conductivity of the building envelope
for different climatic zones, has only been in use since 1980.
Since 1980, a few additional laws were introduced in accordance with EU directives. The full implementation for the
EU buildings directive (2002/91) is expected in 2009.
Residential
For dwellings in 1990, 95% of external walls, 99% of floors,
90
and 70% of roofs had no thermal insulation. Also, 98% of
houses had no double glazing and 96% of heating distribution
pipes was not insulated. 1996 data (Healy, 2003) showed
some limited improvement, with 12% of households having
cavity-wall insulation and 8% double-glazing (Balaras et al.,
2007).
To improve thermal building performance and indoor thermal
comfort conditions, the cost-effective measures are: thermal
insulation of external walls in climatic zone C, D (total CO2
emission savings in 2010 are 1537 ktonne), and weather
proofing (sealing) of openings to reduce infiltration (total CO2
emission savings in 2010 are 1712 ktonne).
Tertiary
To improve thermal building performance and indoor thermal
comfort conditions, the cost-effective measure is: addition of
thermal insulation of exposed external walls for hotels and
healthcare (estimated total savings 102 ktonne CO2eq in 2010).
2. Building design
Residential
To improve the efficiency of space heating systems, the costeffective measures are: maintenance of central heating installations (951 ktonne of CO2 savings in 2010), replacement of
inefficient boilers with energy efficient oil-burners in climatic
zones B, C, D (430 ktonne CO2 savings in 2010), or natural
gas burners in climatic zones B, C (144 ktonne CO2 savings in
2010), temperature balance controls for central space heating
in zones C, D (64 ktonne CO2 savings in 2010), and space
thermostats in zones C, D (59 ktonne CO2 savings in 2010).
To improve the efficiency of space cooling systems the following measures are cost-effective: replacement of old and
inefficient local air conditioning units (241 ktonne of CO2
savings in 2010), and installation of ceiling fans (93 ktonne
CO2 savings in 2010).
Tertiary
The best measures to implement in the non-residential buildings sector is the introduction of a Building Management System, which controls and monitors the building’s mechanical
and electrical equipment such us air handling and cooling
91
plant systems, lighting, power systems, fire systems, and security systems. Introduction of BMS’ in office/commercial
buildings, hotels and healthcare can lead to a total of 1299
ktonne of CO2 savings in 2010 (Gaglia et al., 2007).
To improve the efficiency of space heating systems, costeffective measures are furthermore: maintenance of central
heating installations for hotels and hospitals (estimated savings 95 ktonne CO2eq in 2010), and replacement of inefficient
boilers with energy efficient oil burners (estimated savings
126 ktonne CO2eq in 2010) or natural gas where it is available
(estimated savings 40 ktonne CO2eq in 2010).
The installation of solar collectors for sanitary hot water production in hotels and healthcare centres will lead to estimated
savings of 179 ktonne CO2 in 2010.
The total cost-effective savings potential in the residential
sector (direct greenhouse gases) amounts to 5439 ktonne
CO2eq in 2010. This is equivalent to approximately 40% of direct greenhouse gas emissions in the residential and the tertiary sector in 2010. We assume that the energy-efficiency in
households and services can increase by 2% per year, costeffectively. This leads to a reduction of 60% of frozen efficiency level emissions in 2050.
92
Efficient electric Energy consumption for electrical appliances & lighting has
appliances, light- increased dramatically from 0.37 Mtoe in 1990 to 0.90 Mtoe
ing
in 2004 (CRES, 2006). There is substantial potential for emission reduction in both households and the service sector if
current inefficient electric appliances are replaced by energy
efficient appliances. Electric appliances with cost-effective
energy saving potential include electronic cookers, washing
machines, (combined) refrigerators and freezers. Energy for
lighting can be saved if incandescent lamps are replaced by
fluorescent lamps, which have a much longer lifetime than
normal light bulbs (approx. 10 times longer) and save approximately 80% of electricity. Furthermore, energy for lighting can be saved by using improved reflector fixings with a
higher reflecting coefficient.
2% per year
costeffective energyefficiency
improvement
for electricity consumption (influences greenhouse
gas
emissions of
energy supply sector).
Monitoring and verification are important issues. A study during the period 1988-1990 revealed that 60% of central heating
boilers in Thessaloniki were above the CO2 emission limits,
and only 25% were in compliance with national regulations
that mandate annual maintenance. A similar study in Athens
concluded that 57% of central heating installations did not
comply with annual inspections and 20% were above the CO2
emission limits (Balaras et al., 2007).
Residential
The use of energy efficient lamps can lead to 817 ktonne of
CO2 savings in 2010 and is a cost-effective measure.
Reduce
losses
Tertiary
The use of energy efficient lamps can lead to 1336 ktonne of
CO2 savings in 2010 and is a cost-effective measure in all
buildings.
standby The energy consumption during standby mode of electric appliances can be significantly reduced by for example the implementation of a standard of 1W for all electric appliances in
2008 (Harmelink et al., 2005). For the consumer this is a costeffective measure, although the manufacturer incurs extra
costs in the production phase.
93
Reduce electricity In the service sector electricity can be saved by reducing use
use during non- during non-office hours. Offices are used on average for 2000
office hours
hours per year. After office hours, approximately 25% of the
electricity is still used by fans, computers in standby mode,
printers and faxes, etc., compared to the electricity used during office hours. By applying rather simple measures such as
installing a time switch and monitoring the energy use of the
office building, roughly 27% of the electricity used in offices
can be saved (Harmelink and Blok, 2004).
“Energy saving is without doubt the quickest, most effective
and most cost-effective manner for reducing greenhouse gas
emissions, as well as improving air quality, in particular in
densely populated areas“ (European Commission, 2005).
94
Wedge 6: “Zero emission buildings”
Description
Improved energy- 1. Insulation
efficiency
Residential
Measures from Balaras et al. (2007) that also have a high savings potential but will need some subsidies or other form of
support are: double glazing for climatic zones C, D (total savings in 2010 are 1539 ktonne), thermal insulation of roofs (total savings in 2010 are 550 ktonne), and thermal insulation of
external walls in zones A, B (2037 ktonne CO2eq savings in
2010).
Key assumptions
3.5% per year energy-efficiency
improvement in
comparison
to
frozen efficiency
level.
Tertiary
Measures from Gaglia et al. (2007) that also have a high savings potential but will need some subsidies or other form of
support are: thermal insulation of external walls for office/commercial buildings and schools (108 ktonne CO2eq savings in 2010); thermal insulation of roofs for hotels and healthcare buildings (23 ktonne of CO2eq savings in 2010), installation of double-glazing in healthcare buildings (26.6 ktonne
CO2eq savings in 2010).
2. Building design
Residential
Measures that also have a high savings potential but will need
some subsidies or other form of support are:
installation of solar collectors for sanitary hot water production
(2710 ktonne total CO2 savings in 2010). Subsidies will be low
for the southern part of Greece but higher for the northern part
of Greece. Other measures: temperature balance controls for
central space heating in zones A, B (94 ktonne total CO2 savings in 2010), and space thermostats in zones A, B (88 ktonne
CO2eq savings in 2010).
Tertiary
Promotion of CHP is indicated, especially for large nonresidential buildings that have high electrical and thermal loads
such as healthcare and hotels. The benefits should be significant with the use of natural gas fired CHP systems (Gaglia et
al., 2007).
95
To improve the efficiency of space cooling systems the following measures need some form of support: installation of ceiling
fans in office/commercial buildings (estimated savings 489
ktonne CO2eq in 2010), external shading in hotels, healthcare,
office/commercial buildings (estimated savings 98 ktonne
CO2eq in 2010), and night ventilation (estimated savings 54
ktonne CO2eq).
The total non cost-effective savings potential in the residential
sector (direct greenhouse gases) amounts to ~7000 ktonne
CO2eq in 2010. This is equivalent to approximately 50% of direct greenhouse gas emissions in the residential and the tertiary
sector in 2010. Together with the cost-effective savings the
savings amount to 80% of direct greenhouse gas emissions.
We assume that the energy-efficiency in households and services can increase by 3.5% per year, including cost-effective
savings. This leads to a reduction of 80% of frozen efficiency
level emissions in 2050.
Zero-energy
Further, more ambitious and costly energy saving measures in
dwellings and of- combination with energy storage systems, and renewable elecfice buildings for tricity production, can decrease energy consumption of the
new buildings and households and service sector down to zero. The energy saving
renovation
measures might include high frequency power supply and improved use of daylight combined with a daylight detection system to reduce energy use for lighting, and further efficiency
improvement of electric appliances.
25% of the building stock consists
of
zero-energy
dwellings and 5%
in 2020.
Furthermore, heat pumps and (combined) solar water heaters
and PV systems might be integrally implemented in such zero
emission houses.
In the reference scenario population grows by only 3% in 2050
in comparison to 2005. Due to an expected decrease in household’s size the number of households is expected to increase
by 14% up to 2050. New dwellings will need to be built to
meet the growing number of households and to replace old
buildings. If we assume that the average lifetime of a building
is 100 years this means that in the period 2010-2050 40% of
the buildings will be renewed and 10% by 2020. The construction of new buildings is an excellent opportunity for massive
greenhouse gas savings by building zero-energy buildings.
We assume that 25% of the building stock can consist of zeroenergy dwellings in 2050 and 5% of the building stock in
96
2020.
We assume that in the households and services sector 15% of
heating can be done by biomass in 2050 (and 7.5% in 2020).
This amounts to 12 PJ in 2020 and 20 PJ in 2050. Energy
efficient fireplaces with pellets and wood should be used. This
option is a socially-preferred option.
Solar cooling
Solar cooling is the use of solar thermal energy or solar electricity to power a cooling appliance. Basic types of solar cooling technologies are: absorption cooling (uses solar thermal
energy to vaporize the refrigerant); desiccant cooling (uses solar thermal energy to regenerate (dry) the desiccant); vapour
compression cooling (use solar thermal energy to operate a
Rankine-cycle heat engine); evaporative cooling; and heat
pumps and air conditioners that can be powered by solar
photovoltaic systems (Darling, 2008). To drive the pumps only
0.05 kWh of electricity is needed (instead of 0.35 kWh for
regular air conditioning) (Austrian Energy Agency, 2006).
Geothermal cool- The geothermal energy potential is vast. This resource amounts
ing
to about 50,000 times the energy of all oil and gas resources in
the world (USDOE, 2003). Geothermal cooling uses the same
principle as geothermal heating, namely that the temperature at
a certain depth in the Earth remains constant year-through. In
the winter we can use this relatively high temperature to warm
our houses. Conversely, we can use the relatively cold temperature in the summer to cool our houses. There are several
technical concepts available, but all rely on transferring the
heat from the air in the building to the Earth. A refrigerant is
used as the heat transfer medium. This concept is cost-effective
(Duffield & Sass, 2004).
Use of biomass
for heating for
15% of heat demand in buildings
15% biomass for
heating in buildings in 2050 and
7.5% in 2020.
The use of airconditioning
equipment
and
corresponding
power consumption is growing
strongly
in
Greece. By solar
and geothermal
cooling the power
consumption can
be greatly reduced. This will
lead to lower need
for power generation and will
therefore affect
the energy supply
sector. This option is included in
the 1.7% per year
energy efficiency
improvement of
energy supply.
97
Wedge 7: “Efficient farming”
In 2000 the total final energy demand was 1.1 Mtoe (47 PJ) or 6% of total (MEPPPW, 2006).
In the agricultural sector there are both CO2 emissions from the fuel and electricity demand,
and non-CO2-greenhouse gas emissions, such as CH4 and N2O. These substances may account
for a substantial part of the total emission in many countries, especially in intensive agriculture
countries (Graus et al., 2004). In Greece, CO2 accounts for 2%, methane for 3%, and N2O for
7% (totalling 12%) of the total quantity of greenhouse gases emitted in 2000 (MEPPPW, 2006)
(3.5 Mtonne CH4, 9.2 Mtonne N2O and 2.7 Mtonne CO2 in 2004).
The table below includes greenhouse gas emission reduction measures that affect the sector directly.
Description
Energy efficiency General efficiency improvements in the agriculture and cattle
improvement
breeding sector, resulting in a primary energy saving, can be the
rational use of tractors, using condensing boilers and applying
natural ventilation. In horticulture, cost-effective energy efficiency improvements are temperature integration, condensing
boilers and the installation of a heat pump with CHP, and aquifer
storage.
Key
assumptions
2% energyefficiency
improvement
per year in
comparison
to frozen efficiency
level.
Anaerobic diges- The most cost effective options for reducing CH4 emissions from
tion of manure
manure is anaerobic digestion of manure by farm scale and centralized digesters. Anaerobic digestion is the bacterial fermentation of organic material. This produces biogas which is typically
made up of 65% methane and 35% carbon dioxide with traces of
nitrogen, sulphur compounds, volatile organic compounds and
ammonia. Typically, between 40% and 60% of the organic matter present is converted to biogas. The biogas can be burned directly in modified gas boilers for heat production or can be used
to generate electricity. The remaining residue can be used as a
soil conditioner or fertilizer.
Implementation of 70%
and 80% in
2020
and
2050 respectively. This
means that
35% of the
CH4
emissions can be
reduced
in
2020
and
Besides reducing CH4 emissions, anaerobic digestion of manure 40% in 2050.
may have some external benefits: (1) indirect CO2 emission reduction due to decrease of electricity generation, and (2) options
for co-digestion are present e.g. co-digestion of chicken manure
leads to reduced N2O emissions. These additional benefits are
not taken into account in the calculations. The implementation of
manure digestion in Greece is currently low; anaerobic digestion
plants exist (37 MW installed capacity), but they use sewage
98
sludge or landfill gas as feedstock. The potential for organic
waste plants is about 350 MW (Al Seadi et al., 2007).
Reduce CH4 from
enteric fermentation by improved
diets
Reduce N2O from
soils by spreader
maintenance
The feasible implementation potential in 2020 is estimated at
around 70%, while the reduction of CH4 emissions is 50% for
OECD Europe (Graus et al., 2004). This means that 35% of the
CH4 emissions can be reduced in 2020. If 80% of Greek farmers
were to apply anaerobic digestion of manure in 2050, 40% of the
CH4 emissions could be reduced.
Cost-effective options for EU countries for the reduction of CH4
from enteric fermentation by cattle, by improved level of feed
intake with improved diets include:
• Increasing level of feed intake to change volatile fatty
acid (VFA) in rumen to generate more propionate.
• Increased Conversion Efficiency - High Fat Diet: Addition of fats to diet meets energy requirements and increases propionate in rumen.
• Increased Conversion Efficiency: Include more nonstructural carbohydrates in concentrate; leads to lower
rumen pH.
• Increased Conversion Efficiency - Replace roughage
with concentrates: Replacement of roughage that contains high proportions of structural carbohydrates with
concentrates to improve propionate generation in rumen.
The reduction efficiency of these measures is on average 8.5%
for OECD Europe. It is assumed that the measures can be implemented in 18% of the agricultural sector in 2020 and 80% in
2050. This results in an abatement of these emissions of 3% in
2020 and 11% in 2050 (Graus et al., 2004).
Nitrogen is added to the soil in various processes: nitrogen fixing crops, adding synthetic fertilizer and adding livestock and
poultry manure and crop residues. The only cost-effective way
of reducing N2O emissions in the agricultural sector is by
spreader maintenance. This measure involves more uniform
spreading to increase efficiency; avoiding over- and underapplication. With an implementation potential of 59% in 2020
the abatement will be 13% in 2020. In 2050 the implementation
potential will be close to the maximum technical potential, at
97%, resulting in 21% abatement (Graus et al., 2004).
CH4
emissions from
enteric fermentation
can be reduced by 3%
in 2020 and
11% in 2050.
Implementation of 59%
and 97% in
2020
and
2050 respectively, resulting in 13%
reduction of
N2O emissions in 2020
and 21% in
2050.
99
The calculations for agriculture are based on the frozen efficiency emission level. In case
greenhouse gas emissions grow linear with GDP the total greenhouse gas emissions in agriculture grow by 255% in 2050. However in the reference scenario the growth of agriculture is less.
The amount of animals is expected to grow by 1% per year in the period 2000-2020. Agricultural areas are expected to grow by only 0.13% per year. For the frozen efficiency emission
level we assume that emissions agriculture grow by 1% per year.
In this wedge we have also included the measures from the reference scenario belonging to the
waste sector (see section 4.2.5).
100
Wedge 8: “Low GHG farming”
Reduce CH4 from
enteric fermentation by improved
diets (2)
Reduce N2O from
soils by fertilizer
free zone and sub
optimal levels of
fertilizer
Description
Addition of propionate precursors in daily supplements will increase rumen efficiency and therefore decrease emissions of CH4. Introduction of this method
will cost 40 $2000/tCO2eq avoided. With a reduction efficiency of 25%, an implementation potential of 18%
in 2020 and 80% in 2050; the abatement potential in
2020 is 2% and in 2050 is 8% (Graus et al., 2004).
N2O emission can be further reduced by: 1) fertilizerfree zone, avoiding fertilizer loss by leaving fertilizerfree zones at field edges; or 2) by sub-optimal fertilizer applications such as winter wheat. The main barrier to more efficient use of fertilizer by these options
is the reduction of farm incomes due to a reduction in
crop yield. Applying a fertilizer-free zone costs approximately 700 $US2000 per ton CO2eq avoided,
whereas sub-optimal fertilizer applications cost around
120 $US2000 per tonne CO2eq avoided.
Key assumptions
Additional
abatement potential in 2020 of 2%
and in 2050 of
8%.
Implementation
potential of 25%
and 95% in 2020
and 2050 respectively,
abating
emissions by 7%
in 2020 and 25%
in 2050.
Furthermore, the first option does not result in drastic
N2O emission reductions, due to a low reduction efficiency. A further barrier is the lack of knowledge
among farmers about the utilization of farming techniques that result in low N2O emissions. Assuming a
reduction efficiency of 4% and 26% respectively for
options 1 and 2, and an implementation potential of
25% for both options, the abatement potential is 18%
in 2020. In 2050, it is assumed that the implementation potential will have increased to 95%, respectively,
resulting in an abatement of 25% in total in 2050.
(Graus et al., 2004)
101
Wedge 9: “Efficient energy
“Emerging clean power”
Renewable
power
supply”
and
Description
Wind parks and small hydro units are currently supplying close to 4% of the energy consumed in
Greece, and installed capacity in 2006 reached 7%.
Table 19 shows the economic and technical potential
for renewable power generation in Greece.
Table 19 Potential for renewable power generation in Greece (DLR , 2005)
Economic potential
(TWh/y)
12
4.7
Technical potential
(TWh/y)
25
n.a.
Wedge
10:
Key assumptions
For the low-hanging
fruit wedge (Wedge 9)
we assume that 50% of
the renewable energy
sources are implemented. For the innovation wedge (wedge 10)
we assume that the full
potential is used. See
Table 20 for fuel mix.
Hydro power
Geothermal
power
Biomass
11.8
n.a.
CSP
4
44
Wind power
15
136
PV
4
n.a.
Wave and tidal
4
n.a.
Total
55.5
> 218
CO2 capture Apart from additional renewable capacity, greenand storage
house gases can also be avoided by CO2 capture and
storage from fossil power plants. CO2 is prevented
from entering the atmosphere by capturing it from a
fossil fuel or biomass fired power plant and storing it
in underground reservoirs. The potential for storage
at reasonable cost in Western Europe is probably
large, although large uncertainties are involved in estimating the actual storage potential and associated
costs. Only a very limited number of projects have
been realized so far, which means that no historical
implementation trends are available.
We assume that all fossil-fired power plants in
Greece apply CO2 capture and storage in
2050. This concerns
one or two coal-fired
power plants of 2400
MW (12 TWh) and
three or four gas-fired
power plants with a total capacity of 4300
MW (17 TWh). The
CO2 stored is then 26
Carbon dioxide can be stored in underground layers. Mtonne per year.
Generally the following types of storage reservoirs
are distinguished:
Empty natural gas fields
Empty oil fields
Remaining oil fields to explore with en-
102
hanced oil recovery (EOR)
Unminable coal layers to which enhanced
coal bed methane recovery can be applied
(ECBM)
Aquifers (water containing underground layers).
In Greece only aquifers are present for potential storage of CO2. The overall storage capacity in Greece
for CO2 is estimated to be 2.2 Gtonne (Hendriks,
2007).
We assume that all fossil-fired power plants in
Greece apply CO2 capture and storage in 2050. This
concerns one or two coal-fired power plants of 2400
MW (12 TWh) and three or four gas-fired power
plants with a total capacity of 4300 MW (17 TWh).
The CO2 stored is then 26 Mtonne per year.
Costs for capture (incl. compression) from naturalgas fired plants are 36-45 €/tonCO2 (Hendriks et al.,
2002). The average cost of transporting CO2 through
pipelines over a distance of 50-200 km is 3 €/tonCO2
(this number is highly variable, depending on distance, flow rate and type of region). Assuming a storage depth of 2000 m, storage cost in an aquifer are 3
€/tonCO2, whereas cost for offshore aquifers are 6
€/tonCO2. These costs are based on a discount rate of
10%. We assume that total costs for CO2 capture and
storage are 42 €/tonne CO2 and that all carbon capture is performed in a secured social and environmental way.
103
The fuel mix in the low carbon vision is given in the table below for the years 2020 and 2050.
Ta ble 20 Fuel mix in low car bon vision (installed capacity and load hours in 2005
are based on Platts (2006)
Source
Natural Gas
Coal
Oil
Biomass
Hydro power
Geothermal (in
islands Milos.
Lesvos. Nisyros)
CSP
Wind power
PV
Wave
Power generation 2005
Electricity
Load
Installed
productioin
hours
Power
(TWh)
per year
(GW)
4800
1.7
8.2
6500
5.5
35.5
4400
2.1
9.2
4400
0.05
0.2
1700
3.0
5.0
0
Power generation 2020
Electricity
Load
Installed
production hours per
Power
(TWh)
year
(GW)
22.41
4000
5.6
19.64
6500
3.0
2.925
4000
0.7
1.2
4000
0.3
5.25
1500
3.5
1.8
6000
0.3
1.3
0
0.4
0
0
0.6
13.14
1.8
0
59.4
12.8
68.8
2000
1800
2000
0
Power generation 2050
Electricity
Load
Installed
production
hours
Power
(TWh)
per year
(GW)
17
4000
4.3
12
5000
2.4
1
5000
0.3
4
4500
0.9
5
1500
3.6
5
5000
1.0
0.3
7.3
0.9
0.0
5
18
5
1
22.0
73
3000
1500
2500
3000
1.5
12.1
1.8
0.3
28.2
In the low energy demand scenario, the base load electricity production is covered by some remaining fossil energy plant, 0.9 GW biomass, 3.6 GW hydropower, and 1.0 GW geothermal
power production. Intermediate and peak load options will be fulfilled by CSP, wind, PV and
wave energy.
In our low demand scenario, baseload electricity production is covered by fossil, biomass, hydro and geothermal power generation. It is however also possible to generate baseload electricity using intermittent renewables. In this case, some form of storage is needed, for instance by
combining wind energy, compressed air energy storage, and biomass gasification. These types
of systems can eliminate problems associated with wind intermittency and provide a source of
electrical energy functionally equivalent to a large fossil power plant (Denholm, 2006).
104