PROGRAM C
Trends in Australian bushfire fatalities
over the last 100 years
Dr Kat Haynes
Centre for Risk and Community Safety, RMIT University, Melbourne and Risk Frontiers,
Macquarie University, Sydney.
BB Amalie Tibbits
Centre for Risk and Community Safety, RMIT University, Melbourne
© BUSHFIRE CRC LTD 2007
© BUSHFIRE CRC LTD 2007
Fatality Database
Original database compiled by Risk Frontiers, Macquarie
University
Contains the dates, locations, circumstances of death,
demographics and the names of deceased.
Data is incomplete and we are currently improving the data
with coronial records
Filling in lots of detail from the witness statements about the
decisions the victims made.
1
© BUSHFIRE CRC LTD 2007
© BUSHFIRE CRC LTD 2007
‘Houses protect people and people
protect houses’
• Safest option is to evacuate well in advance
• Evidence for a different approach came slowly
• AFAC’s policy:
‘communities at risk from bushfires should be allowed
and encouraged to take responsibility for their
safety. Where people have adequately prepared
themselves, their houses and properties they
should remain with their homes during a bushfire’
2
© BUSHFIRE CRC LTD 2007
http://www.abc.net.au/canberra/stories/s799744.htm
•How robust is this evidence?
•What do we need to understand about human behaviour (around
fires) in order to successfully implement the ‘stay or go’ policy?
•Difficulties retrieving the data
© BUSHFIRE CRC LTD 2007
Deaths 1900 - 2006
70
60
50
40
30
19
06
19
15
19
21
19
27
19
34
19
42
19
52
19
57
19
65
19
70
19
78
19
83
19
94
20
03
20
10
0
19
00
Numbers killed
80
Year
555 deaths listed also and additional 123 fire-fighters listed which we have removed
Peaks in: 1926 – 32 VIC, 8 NSW; 1939 – 66 VIC, 8 NSW; 1944 – 41 VIC, 7
NSW; 1967 – 61 Tas; 1983 – 35 VIC, 27 SA.
3
© BUSHFIRE CRC LTD 2007
Deaths by State
60
50
%
40
30
20
10
0
5
107
1
12
56
63
302
9
ACT
NSW
NT
QLD
SA
Tas
VIC
WA
State and number
© BUSHFIRE CRC LTD 2007
Gender distribution of deceased
Male
60
Female
50
40
30
20
10
20
05
19
97
19
85
19
79
19
70
19
65
19
57
19
52
19
42
19
34
19
27
19
21
19
15
19
06
0
19
00
Numbers killed
70
Year
Male 379, Female 136, the gender of 40 victims is unknown
4
© BUSHFIRE CRC LTD 2007
Age distribution of deceased
30
26
25
21
20
20
%
15
15
10
8
10
5
0
0-12
13-20
21-35
36-59
60-70
>70
Age range
Have the ages of 90 children and 296 adults. Data is missing 169
© BUSHFIRE CRC LTD 2007
Cause
Cause of death
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
Burn
2
1
t, 2 9
e d, 4
yx iat
h
p
s
A
4
7
3
nt, 9
fa ll,
ing ,
on , 2
Tre e
cc id e
xer ti
sc ap
a
e
e
r
t
e
le
n
v
de
or o
Vehic
A cc i
ac k
rt a tt
He a
%
Known causes of death 378 , unknown = 177
5
© BUSHFIRE CRC LTD 2007
200
150
100
50
16% inside a defensible property
Other
Evacuating
Sheltering in
indefensible
refuge
Saving
livestock
Firefighting
wider
property
0
Inside
defensible
property
Numbers killed
Action Taken
Action taken
81% outside / indefensible refuge
3% other
Know the action of 355, unknown 200
© BUSHFIRE CRC LTD 2007
Action of those who died inside a property
Of the 56 people who we know died inside their property :
7% (4) were actively defending their property
63% (35) were not defending and were sheltering
30% (17) were in their home but their activities are unknown
Of those who were defending:
Year
Gender
Age
Cause of death
1906
Male
?
Burnt
1906
Male
?
Burnt
1985
Male
54
Heart attack after
helping firemen
save his home
2003
Male
61
Smoke inhalation,
saved his and
neighbours homes
10 invalids listed in the
database:
1 in indefensible refuge
5 sheltering in homes
and not defending
4 in home and activities
unknown
6
© BUSHFIRE CRC LTD 2007
Actions of those evacuating
Of the 203 people evacuating (including those in
indefensible refuge):
5% (10) evacuating to shelter (on foot / in a car)
35% (70) evacuating from shelter (on foot / in a car)
70% (97) evacuating general (on foot / in a car)
12% (25) found in indefensible refuge
© BUSHFIRE CRC LTD 2007
Actions of those evacuating
We know the actions of 84 in vehicles*:
53 died evacuating their home or place of work in or near
their car
20 died in their cars travelling through the area
11 died travelling to save their home, property, crops and
livestock
*252 on foot
*of 37 coded so far only 10 died inside their cars
7
© BUSHFIRE CRC LTD 2007
Victorian deaths 1951 onwards
35
Numbers killed
30
25
20
15
10
5
un
kn
o
ho
in
g
ac
t iv
it y
rin
te
el
In
ho
m
e
Sh
fe
n
de
in
In
wn
m
e
e
fu
g
re
le
sib
g
t in
ua
Ev
ac
t in
ua
ne
ge
sh
e
m
f ro
g
t in
ra
l
r
lte
r
lte
sh
e
to
g
g
vin
ua
Ev
ac
De
fe
n
di
Ev
ac
ng
Sa
wi
de
rp
li v
ro
pe
es
to
rt y
ck
0
Activity
© BUSHFIRE CRC LTD 2007
Numbers killed
Relationship between gender and action taken
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
e
n
ty
er
ral
ck
ge
ter
ng
per
ho m
s to
no w
efu
he lt
ene
hel
n di
efe er pro in g li ve g to s from s ting g s ib le r ring in ity unk
d
y
a
in
n
wi d
iv el
Sav acu at u ating Ev acu i ndefe She lte e ac tiv
Ac t nd ing
Ev Ev ac
In
om
e
In h
Def
Action
Know the gender and activity of 347 victims, missing 208
8
D
Sa
fe
m
to
r in
g
ib
le
tin
g
ns
el
te
de
g
fro
ac
ua
g
tin
in
fu
ra
r
m
l
e
ge
ne
l te
20
ho
re
ge
sh
e
r
ck
lte
to
sh
e
li v
es
r
ty
te
er
el
pr
op
sh
Numbers killed
In
di
ho
m
In
e
rin
wn
m
e
e
ra
l
fu
g
ho
re
kn
o
in
le
r
r
lte
lt e
ne
sh
e
ge
un
g
sib
g
m
sh
e
ck
er
ty
es
to
ro
p
l iv
to
t in
ac
t iv
it y
te
g
f ro
fe
n
el
de
Sh
in
g
t in
ua
t in
Ev
ac
ua
ua
rp
g
de
vin
wi
Sa
ng
Ev
ac
fe
n
Ev
ac
De
Numbers killed
18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
Sh
in
Ev
tin
er
in
g
vi
ng
id
nd
w
fe
ac
ua
ac
ua
Ev
In
Ev
de
di
ng
el
y
en
tiv
ef
Ac
© BUSHFIRE CRC LTD 2007
Relationship between gender and action taken
Victoria 1951 onwards
Male
Female
Activity
© BUSHFIRE CRC LTD 2007
Activates of children and young people
23% (90) of fatalities under 20. 15% (58) under 12.
25
Under 12
Under 20
15
10
5
0
Know the activities of 69 children and young adults
Activity
9
© BUSHFIRE CRC LTD 2007
Trend in child fatalities during evacuation
8
7
Numbers killed
6
5
Evacuating on foot
4
Evacuating by car
3
2
1
06
20
05
97
19
20
92
91
19
19
83
85
19
69
19
65
19
19
62
57
19
19
44
52
19
39
19
19
26
19
19
27
0
Years
54 children and young people evacuating
Female trend is very similar plus an increase in sheltering in the home
© BUSHFIRE CRC LTD 2007
2007 Greek Fires
•
•
•
•
June – August 2007
Estimated 3000 forest
fires
79 people killed
More than 200 000
hectares burnt
Athens, 25 August 2007
Source: BBC News
10
© BUSHFIRE CRC LTD 2007
The Eyre Peninsula bushfire
10 & 11 January, 2005
Despite reports that the
fire had been contained it
broke through on Tuesday
morning and rapidly
travelled over the
Peninsular
Source: ABC
•Residents not prepared
•Early evacuation not possible
•Many women and children
attempted to flee to safety
The Australian: January 12th, 2005
© BUSHFIRE CRC LTD 2007
Conclusions - Implementation problems
11
© BUSHFIRE CRC LTD 2007
Fire fighter deaths 1900 - 2006
Firefighte r deaths 1901-2006
15
10
5
06
91
98
20
19
19
83
87
19
75
19
19
69
61
56
45
42
36
28
66
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
01
0
19
Ye ars
© BUSHFIRE CRC LTD 2007
Distribution of child deaths
Numbers killed
Distribution of child deaths
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
19
00
19
05
19
09
19
23
19
32
19
39
19
44
19
52
19
55
19
59
19
67
19
70
19
79
19
83
19
91
20
00
20
05
Number killed
20
Years
12
© BUSHFIRE CRC LTD 2007
Fatality trends of adults and children
60
Numbers killed
50
Under 20
40
Male
Female
30
Linear (Male )
Linear (Female)
20
Linear (Under 20)
10
0
1880
1900
1920
1940
1960
1980
2000
2020
Year
13