Using systems thinking to understand
food insecurity across fisheries and
agricultural systems in coastal
communities within Southeast Asia
Research Objective
Assess the future vulnerability of island
coastal communities who are reliant on
fisheries and agriculture to achieve a food
secure future, by understanding the
ecosystem and socio-economic system
interactions and dynamics
Food security or food insecurity?
“Food security exists when all people at all
times have physical or economic access to
sufficient, safe and nutritious food to meet all
their dietary needs and food preferences for
an active and healthy life” (FAO 2006)
Five aspects of food security
Five aspects of food security:
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
Availability: enough food to feed people
Access: ability of people to physically obtain and
economically procure food
Utilisation: use of food for body’s nutrition and the
utility (pleasure) obtained from food
Stability: people feel certain about where their next
meal is coming from
Suitability: determining one’s quality of life, culturally
acceptable and preferences
Why systems thinking as an approach?
Source: Ingram (2011) A Food system approach to researching food security and its interactions
with global environmental change
Why systems thinking as an approach?
• Food security is a complex or wicked problem.
• Cannot be addressed in isolation – part of a system
• Practitioners do not have a singular framework to
address food security
• Food security is intrinsically linked to livelihoods
• Current research focuses on:
• global or regional levels – very little on local scales and impacts
• agricultural or fisheries treated as separate systems
• singular aspect focus with food systems
• Enables an exploration of food insecurity at the local
level
The El Nido Case Study
El Nido Site
Research Approach & Results
1. Problem Articulation
Source: Sterman (2006), Business dynamics: Systems thinking and modelling for a complex world
Food Insecurity Drivers
• Drivers:
• Increasing population brought about by
increasing tourism
• Increasing demand on resources
• Loss of agricultural land due to development
• Habitat degradation
• Resource depletion
• Climate related incidence
2. Dynamic Hypothesis
Source: Sterman (2006), Business dynamics: Systems thinking and modelling for a complex world
2. Dynamic Hypothesis
Step 1: Systems Mapping
• Conducted Community Participatory
Workshops (CPWs)
Community Participatory Workshops
18 barangays
54 CPWs
796 participants
2. Dynamic Hypothesis
Step 1: Systems Mapping
• Created mental models or rich pictures of
the problem using SESAMME tool
• Resources
• Resource use activities
• Pressures influencing the resources and activities
• The past, expected future and desired future trends
• Interactions between these activities, resources and
pressures, and
• Decisions that could be taken to address problematic
trends in these activities, resources or pressures
SESAMME
Resources
Resources: FGD Round One
Forest
Coconut Palm
Mangrove
Fish
Natural Water source
Livestock
Seagrass
Shells / Shellfish
Crops
Coral
Vegetables
Fruit
Nipa / Pawid
Turtle (Pawikan)
Sea Cucumber (Balatan)
Rice
Piggery
Poultry
Wildlife
Crabs (Alimasag)
Non Timber (rattan, buho, yantok)
Seaweed (Lato)
Timber
Beach (Lapus-lapus)
Dugong
Prawns / shrimps
Squid
Honey / honey bees
Lobster
Sand and gravel
Waterfall
Seahorse
Manlet (giant clam)
Balansasayaw (birds nest)
Rivers
Caves (Pasimbahan)
River turtle
Sea Urchin
Octopus (Pugita)
Abalone
Upland Rice (kaingin rice)
Water system (stream)
Manta Rays
Dolphin
Shark
Cashews
Latian (kaingin produce)
Pandan
Irrigation
Tamilok
Guano
Rattan
Kugon
Buri
Creek
Limestone cliffs
Planted trees
Forest over limestone
Jelly Fish
Coffee
Saging
Minerals (Manganese)
Hot springs
Lake
Whale Shark (butanding)
Freshwater fish
Wild Boar
Wild Chicken
Resources - FGD Round Two
% of barangays
Nbr of barangays who identified
resources
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90 100
Natural Water source
Forest
Vegetables
Poultry
Wildlife
Coconut Palm
Non Timber (rattan,
Man-made water source
Beach (Lapus-lapus)
Seagrass
Mangrove
Other important marine
Crustaceans
Shells / Shellfish
Fish
Rice
Fruit
Crops
Livestock
Nipa / Pawid
Timber
Coral
Seaweed (Lato)
Molluscs
Upland Rice (kaingin
Sand and gravel
Rivers
Cashews
Balansasayaw (swfits)
Watershed
Caves (Pasimbahan)
Balansasayaw (birds
Water system (stream)
Limestone cliffs
Forest over limestone
Fish resources
% of barangays
Nbr of barangays
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90100
CLD for the Agricultural Food System
Water Supply /
Demand Ratio
-
Water Shortages
Agricultural
Productivity (yield
per ha)
+
Water Supply
+
Emigration rate
+
Fertiliser
+
+
Emigration
Demand for Water
Agricultural Production
Pesticide
+
B4
+
+
+
Demand for
Agricultural Products
-
+
B15
-
+
+
Births
Deaths
B1
Population
R1
-
+
Supply / Demand Ratio
for Agricultural Products
Agrochemical Runoff
R2
+
+
Income from Farming
B13
Sewage
+
Supply of
Agricultural Products
+
Labour
B3
-
-
Labour / Job ratio
+
Shift to Tourism and
other Employment
B11
-
+
Jobs
B10
Mangrove Cover
+
Income from other
Employment
+
+
+
+
Water Quality
Tourist Activities
+
Demand for timber
Cutting & Logging
+
Demand for sand
& gravel
Boat anchoring and
trampling corals
B7
Quarrying
-
Coral Reef Cover
+
+
B8
-
+
Attractiveness of
area to tourists
+
Total Suitable
Agricultural Land
Land that can be
cleared for Agriculture
+
+
R3
+
+
-
Development
-
B16
Tourist Population
-
Land Clearing for
Agricultural
Development
+
Disease Outbreak
Attractiveness of
other Employment
Clearing for land
ownership
Reclaimation
-
+
+
B14
+
Vertically Integrated
Hotel Supply Chains
Attractiveness of
Farming
+
Illegal occupancy
of forest
+
+
+
+
+
B12
Demand for
Agricultural Land
+
Immigration rate
+
Immigration
B9
+
+
Agricultural Land
+
+
+
-
Demand for
non-timber resources
+
+
Import of
Agricultural Products
+
+
Demand for Charcoal
+
B2
Price of locally
produced Ag Products
+
+
+
Erosion and
Sedimentation
Land clearing for
development
+
-
B5
-
B6
Forest Cover
-
CLD for tourism, development & habitat
degradation
Livelihoods and alternative food sources
impacting on the food system
3. Formulation of simulation models
Going from a conceptual qualitative
understanding to..
To a quantitative dynamic model of the system
Thank you
Acknowledgements
Dr Carl Smith, The University of Queensland
• Dr Russell Richards, The University of Queensland
• Prof. Angela (Helen) Ross, The University of Queensland
• Ms Noreen (Kubi) Follosco, University of the Philippines
• Ms Miladel Quibilan, University of the Philippines
• El Nido Foundation
• Capturing Coral Reef and Related Ecosystem Services
Project
• World Bank
• Global Environment Facility
•