ANTICIPATION AND INTERPRETATION
OF BLACK SWANS
Lessons of A Volcanic Ash Cloud
Prof. Sirkka Heinonen
Finland Futures Research Centre, University of Turku
www.tse.fi/tutu
Structure of Presentation
1. Future As Signs
2. Future As Risks
3. Future As Learning
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Black Swans shatter our security
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Black Swans shatter our sense of security
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FUTURE AS SIGNS
• The effort to anticipate and analyse Black Swans is
related to several crucial issues in futures studies.
First, it is an epistemological and semiotic question.
• Can futures be anticipated through various signs
and signals at the present (Future as Signs)?
• Black swans can be preceded by weak signals or
signs of possibly emerging trends pointing to them.
However, black swans should not be confused with
weak signals even though some of them may be
interconnected.
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Anticipation of Wild Cards/Black Swans
• In our turbulent world, anticipation skills are critical
to diminish the vulnerability of society and of its
actors facing such events
• also to adapt our activities proactively to sustain the
consequences of these occurrences.
• Such events have traditionally been called as Wild
Cards in futures studies.
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What is a Black Swan?
• Rare, unlikely, unexpected event
that has wide impacts
(rarity, extremity, post-event efforts to explain)
• Unfortunate OR fortunate
•
The concept of Black Swans emerged
as a synonym for wild cards,
introduced by Nassim Taleb a few years ago.
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In the 17th century people in Europe were convinced
that all swans are white (empiria)
Kuva © Olli Hietanen
Observations only are not reliable
© Sirkka Heinonen
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Nassim Taleb
”Black Swan”
2007
”The world is most changed
by extremely unlikely and
unexpected events ”
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The list of modern Black Swans is getting longer..
…
• 9/11 terrorist attack in 2001
• Tsunami in South-East Asia in 2004
• global financial crisis 2008 • Haiti earthquake in 2010, and most recently
• the Icelandic volcanic ash cloud in April 2010
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FUTURE AS RISKS
Black Swans are closely related
to the notion of Risks and Uncertainties
(Future as Risks).
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Uncertainties & Vulnerability
RISKS
“The FLAT World”
Nations
Humans
Companies
Citizens
WORLD
RESOLUTIQUE
RAPID CONSTANT CHANGE
WORLD
RESOLUTIQUE
- Megatrends/- Discontinuities
-Weak signals/ - Emerging issues
- Wild cards/Black Swans
WORLD PROBLEMATIQUE (Club of Rome)
©Sirkka Heinonen
GLOBAL CHALLENGES (Millennium Project) http://www.millennium-project.org/
Risks are about survival
• Humans, companies, nations…
wish to have continuity as individuals and within
communities
• This is the basis for both security thinking and
futures thinking
• New, uncertain, or unexpected things often threaten
the feeling of security and survival
• Risks have to be identified, faced, interpreted and
managed
©Sirkka Heinonen
Kaleidoscope of Risks
•
The concept of risks merits re-thinking within the
futures thinking paradigm – new interest!
• The current foreseeable major risks emerge from
social, environmental and energy-related issues. These
risks have to anticipated alongside with economic and
technological risks that are often more conspicuous –
new angle!
• Some social phenomena put pressure on social
cohesion, emerging rapidly and unpredictably in virtual
communities – new risks!
©Sirkka Heinonen
One of the aims of futures studies is to highlight
the possibility of sudden, rare and unexpected
events with widespread impacts
Another aim is to teach the capacity to anticipate
them --- learning from Futures
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FUTURE AS LEARNING
Black Swans can be used to trigger a learning
process towards
•
•
•
•
•
•
higher futures awareness,
proactiveness,
agile adaptation strategies
alternative thinking
sustainability and
impact analysis
(Future as Learning).
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CASE: VOLCANIC ASH CLOUD
The Icelandic volcanic ash cloud
provides a case in point for
collective learning from a Black Swan
through interpretations.
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CASE: VOLCANIC ASH CLOUD
The volcanic ash cloud case covers several issues
• The future of transport
• The business of air transport
• Utilisation of ICT and social media
• Health issues
• Food and agriculture ?
• Relationship: humans-nature-technology
• ........
Black Swans can be used as a starting point for new
development (patterns of behaviour)
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Lessons Learned
• What you don’t know, may become more relevant
than what you know
• Anticipation of Black Swans builds up
preparedness for extreme futures
• Identification and interpretation of weak signals
may help in anticipating Black Swans
• Interpretation of Black Swans (that have occurred)
may become A Game Changer – understanding
how the current structures, thinking and behaviour
should be changed to survive in our turbulent world
©Sirkka Heinonen
Thank You!
Sirkka Heinonen
Professor of Futures Studies
Finland Futures Research Centre (FFRC)
University of Turku
Helsinki Office: Korkevuorenkatu 25 A 2
00130 Helsinki
[email protected]
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