Is EU Accession an
‘End of History’?
ALINA MUNGIU-PIPPIDI
HERTIE SCHOOL OF
GOVERNANCE BERLIN
[email protected]
Strange celebration of the
Berlin Wall Fall…
l
l
l
How did we turn from the
greatest success to the greatest
liability?
Is politics to blame?
What is next?
EU integration, a success
l
l
l
l
l
ECE Economies are Europeanized
Rapid growth fueled by foreign direct
investment and remittances from Western
workers – both assets turned liabilities
Catch up a key issue
Dynamic and business-friendly economies
Bulgaria and Romania, a political
disappointment
1989 – Looking Back
Revolution or not?
Finished or unfinished?
Transition to what?
How much due to
Europe?
Behind Transition
Headlines
q Nation-building
q
Society building
q
State building
Nation-building
State or unit
Main ethnic group (%)
Bulgaria
8.200.000
83
Bosnia
3.800.000
44
Czech
Republic
Hungary
10.300.000
81.2
10.000.000
89.9
Kosovo
1.600.000-1.800 000
88
Macedonia
2.000.000
66.6
Moldova
4.300.000
64.5
Romania
22.400.000
89.5
Serbia
10.700.000
63
Slovakia
5.400.000
85.7
Slovenia
2.000.000
88
Society-building
• need for constituencies, entrepreneurs,
politicians, social activists
• autonomy of the society over the state
• emergence of a new social contract
dependent on state-society relationship
Forging a new social contract
• BE AUTONOMOUS FROM PRIVATE
INTEREST
- corruption
•INFLUENCE PRIVATE BEHAVIOR
- rule of law, tax collection
• CHANGE SOCIAL STRUCTURE
-peasants into citizens
-bandits into bureaucrats
Left-right blur in ECE
l
l
Populists, not socialists
were the main promoters
of social spending
Countries with dominant
political discourses on
equality ended up with
most oligarchs and elite
cartels running their
economies
New villa of Communist Party
leader, Simferopol, Ukraine, 2006
Political transitions
From communist one-party
democratic regimes
- ‘Breaking point elections’
- Consolidation of democracy
l
l
l
l
states
to
Successful in the Czech Republic, Hungary,
Poland, Slovenia, and, increasingly, Slovakia
Baltic states close to that stage (question marks
about the treatment of minorities)
Laggards, but achievers: Bulgaria, Romania,
former Yugoslavia
Oscillating: Russia, Ukraine, Albania, Georgia
Economic transition twenty years
after
l
Two alternative approaches to economic
transition:
l
l
l
l
Shock therapy: Rapid demise of socialist economic
institutions and their replacement by market
institutions (Poland)
Gradual and incremental transition: step by step
change of institutions (Czech Republic)
No system has yielded magical results
Washington consensus and demise
ideology
of
Democracy and Economic Liberalization in the Postcommunist
Region in 2003
7.00
Slovakia Poland
Hungary
Slovenia
6.00
Lithuania Latvia
Czech
Estonia
Democracy (NIT)
better democracy
5.00
Romania
Bulgaria
Croatia
Serbia-Montenegro
Albania
4.00
Macedonia
Moldova
Bosnia and Herzegovina
Ukraine
3.00
Russia
Armenia
Georgia
Azerbaijan
Kyrgyzstan
Tajikistan
2.00
Kazakhstan
Belarus
1.00
1.00
Uzbekistan
Turkmenistan
1.50
2.00
2.50
3.00
Economic Liberalization (EBRD)
more economic liberalization
3.50
4.00
“Return to Europe”
l
l
l
The fall of the Berlin Wall in November 1989
marked the beginning of the end of the
post-WWII polarized world
Countries to the East of former the Iron
Curtain looked immediately towards the
prosperous and democratic West
Membership of the EU became an indicator
of future stability and prosperity for central
and eastern European countries (CEECs)
EU was not meant as a fortress…
l
l
"We must build the united Europe not only in the interest of
the free nations, but also in order to be able to admit the
peoples of Eastern Europe into this community if, freed from
the constraints under which they live, they want to join and
seek our moral support. We owe them the example of a
unified, fraternal Europe. Every step we take along this road
will mean a new opportunity for them. They need our help with
the transformation they have to achieve. It is our duty to be
prepared.“
Robert Schuman, 1963
”We should also look eastwards when we think of Europe.
They must be given the opportunity to accede.“
Konrad Adenauer
And great expectations from the
East
l
‘For us, Europeans from behind the Iron Curtain, the idea of
Europe was simply a rejection of the Communist project. It
symbolized freedom instead of servitude, creativity instead of
obedience and fear, colorfulness and pluralism instead of
grayness and uniformity, human rights instead of the principle
that people are property of the state, open borders and
legality instead of barbed wire, the Berlin Wall and preventive
censorship’
Adam Michnik, Polish dissident
Western
Rationale…
l
A divided system of states in Europe without an
overarching order would in the long term make Europe a
continent of uncertainty, and in the medium term these
traditional lines of conflict would shift from Eastern Europe
into the EU again. If that happened, Germany in particular
would be the big loser. The geopolitical reality after 1989
left no serious alternative to the eastward enlargement of
the European institutions, … Enlargement is a supreme
national interest, especially for Germany.’
l
‘From Confederacy to Federation - Thoughts on the
finality of European integration’ Speech by Joschka
Fischer at the Humboldt University in Berlin, 2000
And Eastern One…EU=Prosperity
The sequence..
1989 Fall of the Berlin Wall
1990 the World Bank and the IMF step in to assist
transitions
1993 Treaty of Maastricht, war in former Yugoslavia,
Copenhagen decision
1994-96 Applications of Vishegrad countries
1998 Luxemburg council, 4 countries are invited
1999 Helsinki council (10)
2000 Nice summit (conditions of the future enlargement).
2000 Agenda 2000
2004, May Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Hungary, Poland,
Czech Republic, Slovakia and Slovenia join EU
2007 Romania and Bulgaria become members
Charting the Road
Steps
Association agreements
Vishegrad Eastern
+
Balkans +
1991
1993
Applications by
1994
1995
Invitation to negotiate
1997 +
1999 +
Year treaty signed
2003
2005
Accession year
2004
2007
Transformation Meets
Europeanization
l
l
l
Transformation is about building states,
market economic systems and rule of law.
Europeanization is about integrating such
already functioning systems and rendering
them compatible to the European model.
When does EU work? Most progress
achieved before joining
Two Different EU Approaches
l
Vishegrad, Slovenia, Estonia: rewarding
successful transitions
= integration
l
Eastern Balkans, Slovakia, Lithuania, Latvia:
inducing successful transitions
= transformation
The Role of Europe
Process
Return to
Europe
Relate to Europe
Report to Europe
Mechanism Revolution
Emulation
Socialization
Diffusion
Socialization
Conditionality
Socialization
Driver of
process
Domestic,
mostly East
Domestic, mostly
West
EU (mostly
European
Commission)
Level of
process
Governmental
and societal
Mostly societal
Intergovernmental
Governmental
The Day After in Accession
Countries – Backlash?
l
l
l
l
l
Co-opted elites are not
converted elites
Developing economies are
not yet competitive
economies
Europeanization largely
formal
Conditionality effects
unsustainable
But also spontaneous
dynamics
Further East - transition still work in progress..
Thank you!