MAPPING EU-ASEAN Relations Gauri Khandekar Mapping EU-ASEAN Relations Contents Preface 3 EU-ASEAN relations: Time for a strategic partnership 4 Brunei 20 Cambodia 24 Indonesia 28 Lao PDR 32 Malaysia 36 Myanmar 40 Philippines 44 Singapore 48 Thailand 52 Vietnam 56 Table 1: Comparative indicators 60 Table 2: Top trade partners of ASEAN member states 64 EU-ASEAN dialogues 66 List of abbreviations 68 2 About the Author Gauri Khandekar is researcher and head of the Agora Asia-Europe programme at FRIDE. About FRIDE FRIDE is an independent think-tank based in Madrid and Brussels. Our mission is to inform policy and practice in order to ensure that the EU plays a more effective role in supporting multilateralism, democratic values, security and sustainable development. About AGORA ASIA-EUROPE Agora Asia-Europe is a knowledge hub on EU-Asia relations, which connects think-tanks, analysts, policy-makers, opinion leaders and other experts from both regions to discuss ways to add input and guide the EU’s approach towards Asia. Mapping EU-ASEAN Relations Preface 7KLV SXEOLFDWLRQ WKH ¿UVW VWXG\ RI LWV NLQG SURYLGHV DQ LQ depth review of the European Union’s (EU) relationship with the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) and each of the 10 ASEAN member countries. Individual country briefs assess the state-of-play of the EU’s bilateral relations with ASEAN states and outline their strengths and weaknesses, priorities and outlook. The publication draws on an extensive collection of statistical data and other indicators across a variety of policy areas, and calls for a strategic partnership between the two regional organisations. The purpose of this exercise is not to provide comprehensive coverage of all relevant statistical information or a conclusive analysis of the politics and perspectives of each bilateral relationship. ‘Mapping EU-ASEAN relations’ seeks, rather, to capture some of the salient features of each partnership and of the respective partners. This publication aims to help foster debate RQWKHGH¿QLWLRQRIWKH(8¶VELODWHUDOSDUWQHUVKLSZLWK$6($1 – an important dimension of the Union’s presence and role in a JOREDOUHJLRQRIJURZLQJHFRQRPLFDQGSROLWLFDOVLJQL¿FDQFH The study relies on a number of interviews carried out between -DQXDU\ DQG 2FWREHU ZLWK (8 DQG $6($1 RI¿FLDOV LQ Brussels and visiting experts from Asia. Data have been drawn from a variety of authoritative sources, including the United Nations, the World Bank, the International Monetary Fund, the International Energy Agency, the US Energy Information Administration, the Asian Development Bank as well as the EU and ASEAN. Non-governmental sources include the World Economic Forum, INSEAD Business School, Transparency International, as well as think tanks such as the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI). The author wishes to thank Shada Islam, Director of Policy at Friends of Europe, for reviewing the publication, the many EU and Asian RI¿FLDOV ZKR VKDUHG WKHLU YLHZV DV ZHOO DV )LOLS &LRUWX] DQG &KDUOLQH4XLOOHURXIRUUHODWHGUHVHDUFKDVVLVWDQFH 3 EU-ASEAN relations: Time for a strategic partnership Introduction 4 The European Union (EU) and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) have much in common. For one, they are both regional organisations directed to manage interdependence and deal with security challenges. While their historical background and degree of integration may differ, they correlate as natural partners, as well as regional power centres. Since the establishment of formal WLHVLQELODWHUDOUHODWLRQVKDYHSURJUHVVHGVLJQL¿FDQWO\DQG the partnership has weathered numerous tribulations along the road. The EU has been instrumental in mentoring the ASEAN integration process. Today, EU-ASEAN bilateral ties are thoroughly multi-layered and comprehensive, and cover a wide array of issues, ranging from development to economics, trade and investment, aid, and political and cultural affairs. Since 2012, there has been an increase in high-level bilateral visits and the initiation and completion of various agreements between the EU and ASEAN member countries. The EU is ASEAN’s third-largest WUDGLQJSDUWQHUZKLOH$6($1LVWKH(8¶V¿IWKODUJHVW7KH(8 is also the largest source of foreign direct investment (FDI) and critical development and humanitarian aid to the region. Yet, the importance of the relationship and its potential are underrated. ASEAN in the regional context POLITICS AND ECONOMICS The ASEAN integration process and the bloc’s role have developed into key features of Asian geopolitics in recent years, especially as the global economic centre of gravity shifts towards the continent. ASEAN’s strategic location, straddling HPHUJLQJJLDQWV,QGLDDQG&KLQDWKH,QGLDQDQG3DFL¿F2FHDQV and the Asian and Australian continents, places it at the core of the region’s political topography. Three crucial international maritime chokepoints (the Straits of Malacca, Sunda, and Lombak-Makassar) lie in ASEAN’s territorial waters. As a grouping of 10 rapidly developing economies, ASEAN has also integrated itself well into the region’s economic architecture, having signed Free Trade Agreements (FTAs) with every country except for North Korea. The Asian theatre is changing dramatically with the rise RI &KLQD WKH 8QLWHG 6WDWHV¶ 86 µUHEDODQFLQJ¶ WRZDUGV Mapping EU-ASEAN Relations Asia, and the economic growth of India (despite the current slowdown) and of most Asian countries. Interconnectivity LQFOXGLQJ LQIUDVWUXFWXUH ÀLJKW FRQQHFWLRQV VKLSSLQJ WUDGH and investment) has reached unprecedented levels amidst the continent’s evolving economic and security landscape. While territorial disputes are escalating in the region, a culture of inclusivity and partnership diplomacy is also developing. ASEAN is playing an increasingly important role in regional geopolitics by leading efforts to create an architecture of ASEAN-sponsored regional platforms. These include the ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF), ASEAN 3OXV7KUHH$6($1&KLQD-DSDQDQG6RXWK.RUHD$6($1 3OXV6L[$6($1&KLQD-DSDQ6RXWK.RUHD,QGLD$XVWUDOLD and New Zealand), the East Asia Summit (EAS, including the ASEAN Plus Six as well as Russia and the US), and the ASEAN Defence Ministers Meeting Plus (ADMM+). The ARF brings together foreign ministers of important global actors, including the EU, to discuss critical regional and international issues. 7KH$'00ODXQFKHGLQ2FWREHULVWKHUHJLRQ¶V¿UVW RI¿FLDO IUDPHZRUN WKDW EULQJV WRJHWKHU GHIHQFH PLQLVWHUV RI FRXQWULHV ± $6($1 PHPEHUV SOXV $XVWUDOLD &KLQD India, Japan, New Zealand, Republic of Korea, Russia, and the United States. The ADMM+ is emerging as an important forum for defence diplomacy and cooperation and has a yearURXQG ZRUNLQJ SURFHVV XQGHU ¿YH ([SHUW :RUNLQJ *URXSV (:*VKXPDQLWDULDQDVVLVWDQFHDQGGLVDVWHUUHOLHI+$'5 maritime security, military medicine, counter-terrorism, and peacekeeping operations. ASEAN’s tabletop exercises on disaster management too have been useful in building trust amongst various participant nations and in identifying weak points in their capabilities and level of inter-operability. ASEAN also sponsors two key regional free trade initiatives, namely the ASEAN Free Trade Area (AFTA) among its member FRXQWULHVDQGWKH5HJLRQDO&RRSHUDWLRQ(FRQRPLF3DUWQHUVKLS 5&(37KHODWWHUZKLFKLVFXUUHQWO\XQGHUQHJRWLDWLRQDLPV WR FRDOHVFH $6($1¶V ELODWHUDO )7$V ZLWK $XVWUDOLD &KLQD India, New Zealand, South Korea, and Japan. At the same time, ASEAN aims to establish a deeper economic FRPPXQLW\E\7KLVZRXOGEXLOGRQDWULSDUWLWHVWUXFWXUH 5 6 a political-security community, an economic community, and a socio-cultural community. By 2015, the ASEAN Economic Community is expected to resemble an EU-style common market, with free movement of goods and services, investment and capital, as well as skilled labour. As of late 2013, over 80 per cent of all action lines directed to building the ASEAN Community had been completed or were being implemented. ASEAN Chair in 2012, rebuffed its ASEAN neighbours on any mention of issues regarding Exclusive Economic Zones (EEZ) and the Scarborough Shoal – contentious topics in the context of the South China Sea dispute. Nonetheless, after intense shuttle diplomacy efforts by Indonesian Foreign Minister Marty Natalegawa, a document entitled ‘ASEAN’s Six-Point Principles’ on the issue of the South China Sea was adopted a week later. RISING AMIDST CHALLENGES Despite growing political turbulence in East Asia, ASEAN’s role in the region has been significantly expanding over the past decade. Today, it helps facilitate dialogue among major powers (China, India, Japan, and the US) through a policy of leveraged equidistance – all actors have an equal status at the table, no one country drives the agenda, and no countries are singled out or excluded. Maritime security is a particularly serious challenge, not only in South-East Asia, but throughout the Asian continent too: from the Gulf of Aden to the East China Sea. Building cooperative solutions that include all actors is a key priority for the years to come. ASEAN’s Expanded Maritime Forum (AEMF), held for the first time in 2012 amongst ASEAN members, plus Australia, China, India, Japan, New Zealand, South Korea, Russia, and the US, focused on the relevance of the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea and new dispute settlement mechanisms. Noticeably, the EU was not involved. ASEAN finds itself at the centre of important security hotspots or international tensions, such as the South China Sea dispute, which carry growing implications for global affairs. Despite the fact that there are some ASEAN member states involved in the aforementioned dispute, ASEAN as a bloc has made remarkable efforts at peacefully managing the issue, especially by seeking to establish a regional code of conduct. Such engagement, however, has sometimes come at the cost of ASEAN’s unity. China has been able to curry favour in Cambodia, Myanmar, the Lao People’s Democratic Republic (PDR) and at times even Indonesia. The failure for the first time in ASEAN’s 45-year history to issue a joint communiqué following a foreign ministers’ meeting in July 2012 in Phnom Penh brought to the fore the existing differences among member states. Cambodia, as Mapping EU-ASEAN Relations ASEAN has sought to assume the role of the region’s peacebuilder. As such, ASEAN could become an important gateway IRUWKH(8LQWR$VLD:LWKWKHJURZLQJLQÀXHQFHRI&KLQDLQ the Asian continent and the US rebalancing towards Asia, it is vital for the EU to step up its own engagement in the region. An upgrade in EU-ASEAN bilateral relations is needed to underpin changing dynamics in a challenging geopolitical and economic environment. EU-ASEAN relations The EU-ASEAN relationship is an evolving one, which advances as the two organisations develop. This provides much scope for innovation. The similarities in terms of identity and ambitions between the two parties, as organisations aimed at promoting regional cooperation, has been the foundation on which relations were built. Both intend to enhance security, prosperity, and regional stability, although by following different approaches to regional integration. Being more advanced, the European project has been an inspiration for $6($1 &RRSHUDWLRQ RQ UHJLRQDO LQWHJUDWLRQ KDV EHHQ WKH bastion of EU-ASEAN ties. The EU has played an important role by mentoring and supporting ASEAN not only through ¿QDQFLDO DVVLVWDQFH EXW DOVR E\ VKDULQJ EHVW SUDFWLVHV DQG experiences, exchanges, and numerous concrete projects. As a result, ASEAN today is arguably the most advanced regional organisation in the world after the EU. In April 2012, the EU and ASEAN signed in Bandar Seri Bagawan (Brunei) a new 5-year Plan of Action, which provides a political framework to strengthen dialogue. It builds on the ASEAN-EU Plan of Action to Implement the Nuremberg Declaration on an EU-ASEAN Enhanced Partnership (2007– 12). The main gist of the new plan is engagement on a QXPEHU RI LVVXHV EH\RQG WUDGH UHÀHFWLQJ WKH (8¶V LQWHUHVW to collaborate more with ASEAN on political issues. It does not, however, constitute a major leap into completely new areas of collaboration, but is rather an effort at formalising cooperation by enumerating projects and programmes on which both sides can work together in the politico-security DQG VRFLRFXOWXUDO ¿HOGV LQ DGGLWLRQ WR HFRQRPLF DQG WUDGH issues. The partners have also provided for an annual review 7 mechanism to be carried out through the ASEAN-EU Joint &RRSHUDWLRQ &RPPLWWHH -&& DQG WKH $6($1(8 6HQLRU 2I¿FLDOV0HHWLQJ620RQWRSRIWKHDQQXDO(8$6($1 )RUHLJQ 0LQLVWHUV 0HHWLQJ 7KH ¿UVW PHHWLQJ EHWZHHQ WKH (8 DQG$6($1 &RPPLWWHHV RI 3HUPDQHQW 5HSUHVHQWDWLYHV WRRN SODFH LQ )HEUXDU\ LQ %UXVVHOV 7KH %DQGDU 6HUL Bagawan Plan of Action ushers in a new phase in the ASEANEU partnership by acknowledging important changes that are taking place on both sides, especially as concerns ASEAN’s UHJLRQDOLQWHJUDWLRQJRDOV±WKH$6($1&RPPXQLW\E\ and beyond. 8 The EU supports the 3-pillar blueprint that ASEAN aims to establish by 2015. Apart from sharing expertise in several fields (see box 1), during 2007–13 the EU provided around €70 million to support the ASEAN integration process. Other international actors like the US, Australia, Japan or the Asian Development Bank (ADB) also provide crucial assistance. +RZHYHUDQGLQVSLWHRI(XURSHDQSROLWLFDOVWUDLQVDQGWKH economic crisis, the EU is the only international actor who can share decades of experience in terms of confidencebuilding, resource-pooling, and shared decision-making, thereby helping foster regional cooperation within ASEAN. Working with ASEAN concurrently fulfils two of the EU’s RZQ NH\ DPELWLRQV HQKDQFLQJ LWV SUHVHQFH LQ $VLD DQG supporting regional cooperation and multilateralism at large. 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The EU is ASEAN’s thirdODUJHVWWUDGLQJSDUWQHUDIWHU&KLQDDQG-DSDQDFFRXQWLQJIRU per cent of ASEAN’s total external trade. With a share of 5.2 per cent of the EU’s total external trade, in 2012 ASEAN was the (8¶V ¿IWKODUJHVW WUDGLQJ SDUWQHU DIWHU WKH 86 &KLQD 5XVVLD DQG6ZLW]HUODQG7KH(8¶VWRS¿YHWUDGHSDUWQHUVLQWKHEORFDUH Singapore, Malaysia, Thailand, Indonesia, and Vietnam. >cVgZ\^dci]Vihj[[Zgh+%eZgXZcid[i]ZldgaY¼hcVijgVaY^hVhiZgh!i]Z:J]VhWZZc]Zae^c\id^begdkZi]Z6H:6C8ddgY^cVi^c\8ZcigZ[dg=jbVc^iVg^Vc6hh^hiVcXZVcYXgZViZ WZiiZga^c`hVbdc\cVi^dcVa]jbVc^iVg^VcVhh^hiVcXZXZcigZhl^i]^c6H:6C# I]ZG:69>;VX^a^inæ)b^aa^dc!'%&&·&)·GZ\^dcVa:J"6H:6C9^Vad\jZ>c^i^Vi^kZ·[dhiZgh ZmX]Vc\ZhVcYeda^XnY^Vad\jZWnhjeedgi^c\hijYnk^h^ih!hZb^cVgh!VcYdi]Zg^ciZgVXi^kZ bZVhjgZh^c`ZnVgZVhhjX]VhY^hVhiZgg^h`gZYjXi^dc!hX^ZcXZVcYiZX]cdad\n!^c[dgbVi^dcVcYXdbbjc^XVi^dciZX]cdad\^Zh!ZcZg\n!Xa^bViZX]Vc\Z!X^k^ahdX^Zin!VcYhdX^Va ^cXajh^dc#:JH=6G:æ&%b^aa^dc!'%&(·&,·:JHjeedgiid=^\]Zg:YjXVi^dc^c6H:6C GZ\^dc·V^bhid]Vgbdc^hZbjijVagZXd\c^i^dchnhiZbhVbdc\]^\]ZgZYjXVi^dc^chi^iji^dchl^i]^c6H:6C# )!%%%6H:6ChijYZcihigVkZaidi]Z:JZVX]nZVgdcVXVYZb^XhX]daVgh]^eh'*%jcYZg i]Z:J:gVhbjhBjcYjhegd\gVbbZ!'*WZcZÃi^c\[gdbBVg^Z8jg^Z;Zaadlh]^eh!VcY bVcndi]ZghdckVg^djh:JbZbWZghiViZhX]daVgh]^eh#>cVYY^i^dc!'&'6H:6CgZhZVgX] ^chi^iji^dcheVgi^X^eViZY^ci]Z:J¼hGZhZVgX];gVbZldg`Egd\gVbbZ,'%%,·&(# 9 Singapore accounts for more than 35 per cent of the EU’s total trade with ASEAN and is the only ASEAN member state with which the EU enjoys a trade surplus. Indonesia, which UHSUHVHQWV SHU FHQW RI $6($1 *'3 DFFRXQWV IRU RQO\ 7.25 per cent of total EU-ASEAN trade in goods. In terms of services, Singapore is again the EU’s top trade partner within ASEAN, followed by Malaysia, Thailand, Indonesia, and the Philippines (2012). Only Thailand enjoys a surplus in services trade with the EU. From 2010 to 2013, trade in goods with 10 ASEAN increased by 39.5 per cent and trade in services by 27 per FHQWGHVSLWHWKHGLI¿FXOWHFRQRPLFFOLPDWH$V/HDVW'HYHORSHG &RXQWULHV/'&V&DPERGLD/DR3'5DQGUHFHQWO\0\DQPDU EHQH¿W IURP WKH (8¶V (YHU\WKLQJ %XW $UPV (%$ VFKHPH enjoying duty and quota-free access on all exports except arms and ammunition to the European single market. an increasingly prosperous ASEAN market, today the EU SXUVXHV ERWK )7$ DQG 3&$ QHJRWLDWLRQV LQ SDUDOOHO:KLOH the pursuit of bilateral FTAs has been challenging, it will be even more difficult to seam them together given the differing levels of ambition. The most advanced of these agreements is the EU-Singapore FTA. The EU is the top investor in ASEAN, with an annual €9.1 ELOOLRQRQDYHUDJHRYHU±,QOLJKWRIWKH¿QDQFLDOFULVLV LQUHFHQW\HDUV(8)',RXWÀRZVWR$6($1KDYHEHHQYHU\ YRODWLOH IURP ¼ ELOOLRQ LQ WR OHVV WKDQ ¼ ELOOLRQ LQ ZKLOH)',LQÀRZVIURP$6($1VWRRGDW¼ELOOLRQ In 2010, EU outward FDI stock to ASEAN was €192.7 billion and EU inward FDI stock from ASEAN was €67.9 billion, of which Singapore was the largest source (over 95 per cent). 2QJRLQJ )7$ DQG 3&$ QHJRWLDWLRQV ZLWK $6($1 PHPEHUV KDYHEHFRPHDNH\DVSHFWRI(8$6($1UHODWLRQV3&$VKDYH EHHQ FRQFOXGHG ZLWK ,QGRQHVLD VLJQHG LQ UDWL¿HG E\ ,QGRQHVLDLQUDWL¿FDWLRQSHQGLQJE\WKH(83KLOLSSLQHV VLJQHG LQ UDWL¿FDWLRQ SHQGLQJ E\ ERWK VLGHV 9LHWQDP and Singapore, while negotiations with Thailand and Malaysia are ongoing. Meanwhile, the FTA with Singapore was completed in December 2012, although it has not yet entered into force. FTA negotiations have been launched with Malaysia (in 2010), Vietnam (in 2012), and Thailand (in 2013), and scoping exercises are ongoing with the Philippines, Brunei, and Indonesia. Following the failure of initial efforts to construct a regionto-region FTA, initiated in 2007, in 2009 the EU decided to pursue a strategy of ‘bilateral building bloc FTAs’ with a set of ASEAN members. This has been criticised as detrimental to ASEAN unity and EU ambitions to foster regional integration. In addition, these negotiations were initially WREHSUHFHGHGE\3DUWQHUVKLSDQG&RRSHUDWLRQ$JUHHPHQW 3&$ WDONV ZKLFK WHQG WR ODVW IRU \HDUV DQG LQFOXGH cumbersome ratification processes by both sides. With a view to reducing the length of the process and tapping into POLITICAL COOPERATION Beyond sharing experiences and providing support to ASEAN’s regional integration efforts, the EU has been an important development partner to the bloc. Over decades, EU GHYHORSPHQWDQGKXPDQLWDULDQDLGKDVKDGDVLJQL¿FDQWLPSDFW Mapping EU-ASEAN Relations on large sections of ASEAN society and in strategic areas like poverty alleviation, elevating local standards of living, support to farmers and small industries, health and education, law enforcement, government reform, mine action, and focused support for vulnerable sections of society. From 2007–12, the EU extended around €2 billion to individual ASEAN member states and €70 million was offered to the ASEAN Secretariat, in addition to sums granted by individual EU member states. EU emergency assistance and disaster relief aid too have been crucial, especially in a region that for the past 30 years has suffered most of the world’s fatalities arising from QDWXUDO GLVDVWHUV WKH $VLD 3DFL¿F UHJLRQ KDV HQGXUHG RYHU 90 per cent of global natural disaster fatalities in the same period, according to the United Nations Economic and Social &RPPLVVLRQ IRU$VLD DQG WKH 3DFL¿F ± 81(6&$3:LWKLQ WKHODVWWZRGHFDGHVWKH(XURSHDQ&RPPXQLW\+XPDQLWDULDQ 2I¿FH(&+2KDVFKDQQHOOHGDURXQG¼ELOOLRQWRYLFWLPV RIFRQÀLFWDQGGLVDVWHUVJOREDOO\DVLJQL¿FDQWSHUFHQWDJHRI which has been directed towards South-East Asia. EU engagement has not eschewed involvement in domestic politics in ASEAN countries, seeking to support institution- and FDSDFLW\EXLOGLQJDQGGHPRFUDWLFWUDQVLWLRQV*RRGJRYHUQDQFH respect for human rights, and democracy have consistently been mainstreamed into EU-ASEAN cooperation and dialogue. The hallmark of such engagement has been the EU’s strong stand against the up until recently authoritarian regime in Myanmar, which very much affected EU-ASEAN relations too. Not only did the EU protest against Myanmar’s accession to ASEAN in 1997 by suspending ministerial-level talks with the bloc, but it also refused to attend the ASEM summit if Myanmar were to join. Leading the international estrangement of Myanmar, the EU championed the cause of democracy and its advocates. The EU already holds bilateral local human rights dialogues (at the level RIKHDGVRI(8PLVVLRQVZLWK,QGRQHVLD&DPERGLD9LHWQDP DQG /DR 3'5 *LYHQ LWV UHPDUNDEOH SROLWLFDO WUDQVIRUPDWLRQ such a dialogue could be held with Myanmar in the near future. While these dialogues have had little demonstrable impact on WKH FRXQWULHV LQYROYHG WKH\ KDYH QRQHWKHOHVV EHQH¿WWHG FLYLO society in countries where civil society groups have been invited to participate. The EU has actively sought to broaden the political dimension of its relations with ASEAN. Today, a number of initiatives, especially in the security sector (both traditional and nontraditional security), have helped up the ante on the EU’s political engagement with the bloc. The partners cooperate 11 12 on issues such as disaster preparedness, mediation and reconciliation, migration and mobility, border protection, maritime issues, climate change, energy, counter-terrorism, preventive diplomacy, crisis management and response, DQG FRXQWHUWUDI¿FNLQJ ,Q D IHZ PRQWKV DIWHU WKH %DOLERPELQJVWKDWFRVWWKHOLYHVRI(XURSHDQFLWL]HQVWKH (8 DQG$6($1 VLJQHG D -RLQW 'HFODUDWLRQ RQ &RRSHUDWLRQ WR &RPEDW7HUURULVP DW WKH th Ministerial Meeting. While operational cooperation remains limited, consultations have increased. Together with Singapore, Norway, and contributing $6($1 PHPEHU VWDWHV WKH (8 DOVR GHSOR\HG D &RPPRQ 6HFXULW\DQG'HIHQFH3ROLF\&6'3PRQLWRULQJPLVVLRQLQ Aceh, Indonesia (Aceh Monitoring Mission), which lasted from September 2005 to June 2012. A new comprehensive ASEAN-EU Migration and %RUGHU 0DQDJHPHQW 3URJUDPPH ¼ PLOOLRQ ± KHOSV LQFUHDVH ERUGHU FRQWURO HI¿FLHQF\ LQ WKH $6($1 region, as well as intra-regional connectivity. With Myanmar, WKH(8LVFRFKDLULQJDQ$5)LQWHUVHVVLRQDOJURXS,6*RQ &RQ¿GHQFH %XLOGLQJ 0HDVXUHV DQG 3UHYHQWLYH 'LSORPDF\ 7KH¿UVWPHHWLQJZDVKHOGLQ'HFHPEHULQ<DQJRQDQG WKHQH[WLVVFKHGXOHGWRWDNHSODFHLQ%UXVVHOVLQ$SULO(8 support to the implementation of the ASEAN Agreement on Disaster Management and Emergency Response (AADMER) DQG WKH $6($1 &RRUGLQDWLQJ &HQWUH IRU +XPDQLWDULDQ $VVLVWDQFHRQ'LVDVWHU0DQDJHPHQW$+$&HQWUHKDVDOVR been instrumental. In 2013 the EU contributed with €30 million to ethnic peace processes in Myanmar, in addition to €700,000 as start-up IXQGV WR WKH 1RUZHJLDQIXQGHG 0\DQPDU 3HDFH &HQWUH LQ Yangon. The EU is also extending support to the South(DVW$VLDQ &KHPLFDO %LRORJLFDO 5DGLRORJLFDO DQG 1XFOHDU &%51&HQWUHRI([FHOOHQFHHVWDEOLVKHGLQWKH3KLOLSSLQHV in 2013, as well as engaging on mediation consultation with the ASEAN Institute for Peace and Reconciliation. The EU participates in a series of ASEAN-sponsored and other regional politico-security oriented fora. It has been a UHJXODU SDUWLFLSDQW VLQFH WKH WHQXUH RI +LJK 5HSUHVHQWDWLYH Javier Solana, who maintained frequent contacts with Asian governments. Following a lull in attendance to the region’s fora and in bilateral visits, the years 2012 and 2013 witnessed D PDUNHG ULVH LQ YLVLWV E\ WRS (8 RI¿FLDOV 3UHVLGHQWV 9DQ 5RPSX\ DQG %DUURVR +LJK 5HSUHVHQWDWLYH $VKWRQ DQG several commissioners), as well as EU member states’ leaders and ministerial delegations. The EU has also expressed much interest in cooperating with the US in Asia following Washington’s rebalance towards the region, as can be seen in a joint statement issued on 12 July 2012 in Phnom Penh, &DPERGLD(QVXULQJVXVWDLQDEOHVWDELOLW\LQ$VLDHVSHFLDOO\E\ Mapping EU-ASEAN Relations empowering ASEAN, is a priority for the EU. To this extent, the Union has voiced concerns over rising insecurity and backs $6($1¶VSURSRVDOIRUDFRGHRIFRQGXFWLQWKH6RXWK&KLQD Sea, as well as a peaceful resolution of the dispute. But the EU could do more to strengthen its political presence in the region. Much cooperation on political issues such as maritime security, counter-terrorism, cyber-security, WUDI¿FNLQJ DQG FRQ¿GHQFHEXLOGLQJ KDV EHHQ OLPLWHG WR conferences and workshops, visits to EU institutions, FRQVXOWDWLRQV RU MRLQW VHPLQDUV &RQFUHWH FDSDFLW\EXLOGLQJ could be expanded in some areas or started for example on the issue of maritime security. Enhancing the capability and UROH RI UHJLRQDO LQLWLDWLYHV OLNH WKH 5HJLRQDO &RRSHUDWLRQ $JUHHPHQW RQ &RPEDWLQJ 3LUDF\ DQG $UPHG 5REEHU\ DJDLQVW 6KLSV 5H&$$3 ± DQ HIIHFWLYH FOHDULQJKRXVH RI information – could be a valid option. The United Kingdom, WKH1HWKHUODQGVDQG'HQPDUNDUHPHPEHUVRI5H&$$3DQG the EU should consider applying for membership. The ADMM+ has emerged as an important security IUDPHZRUN ZKHUH GHIHQFH RI¿FLDOV PHHW UHJXODUO\ GXULQJ the course of the year and the region’s militaries have the opportunity to cooperate in a multilateral setting. The conduct of joint country military exercises involving 18 countries in areas such as maritime security, humanitarian assistance, disaster relief, military medicine, or counter-terrorism is WKH PRVW VLJQL¿FDQW IHDWXUH RI WKLV IRUXP ZKLFK ¿OOV DQ important void in the region’s security architecture. The EU should endeavour to seek membership of the ADMM+, which would allow it to show its commitment and further contribute to regional stability while it awaits membership to the EAS. This could also provide the basis for future cooperation, LQFOXGLQJWKURXJKWKH&6'3 Asia’s regional architecture is becoming increasingly specialised and issue-focused. To this extent, in order to engage in the region’s dialogue on maritime issues, the EU should also seek to be included in the ASEAN Expanded Maritime Forum. GLOBAL GOVERNANCE ISSUES The population of the EU and ASEAN combined surpasses 1.1 billion people. Both have an important stake in global affairs and in building an organised multipolar world. Indonesia DQGWKH$6($1&KDLUDVREVHUYHUSDUWLFLSDWHLQLPSRUWDQW 13 JOREDO SODWIRUPV OLNH WKH * 7KH (8 DQG $6($1 ¿QG themselves on similar wavelengths on a number of critical international issues, where the EU often faces resistance from some of its so-called strategic partners.1&OLPDWHFKDQJHDQG non-proliferation are two such examples. 14 While the EU has led international efforts for concerted action to counter climate change, ASEAN as a group has also sought to reach a comprehensive multilateral agreement. ASEAN countries are acutely vulnerable to climate change. A 2009 Asian Development Bank (ADB) report states that South-East Asia ‘is likely to suffer more from climate change than the rest of the world, if no action is taken’. While ASEAN member states have distinct national positions, there is a shared understanding at the regional level on this issue. The 2011 statement of ASEAN leaders on climate change explicitly recognises the region’s acute vulnerability to climate change, and has been implemented through an ASEAN $FWLRQ 3ODQ RQ D -RLQW 5HVSRQVH WR &OLPDWH &KDQJH $$3 -5&&$GRSWHGE\HQYLURQPHQWPLQLVWHUVLQWKH$$3 -5&&LVDOLYLQJGRFXPHQWWKDWLVIROGHGLQWRWKH5RDGPDS IRUDQ$6($1&RPPXQLW\±DQGWKH$6($1&OLPDWH &KDQJH,QLWLDWLYH$&&,(VWDEOLVKHGLQWKH$&&,LV & I]Z :J¼h &% higViZ\^X eVgicZgh ^cXajYZ 7gVo^a! 8VcVYV! 8]^cV! >cY^V! ?VeVc! BZm^Xd! Gjhh^V!Hdji]6[g^XV!Hdji]@dgZV!VcYi]ZJc^iZYHiViZh# a regional platform that aims to enhance inter-institutional FRRUGLQDWLRQRQFOLPDWHDFWLRQ7KH$6($1:RUNLQJ*URXS RQ&OLPDWH&KDQJH$:*&&ZDVVXEVHTXHQWO\HVWDEOLVKHG WRLPSOHPHQWERWKWKH$&&,DQGWKH$FWLRQ3ODQ ASEAN has also established a multi-sectoral framework on FOLPDWHFKDQJHDQGIRRGVHFXULW\$)&&WKDWIRFXVHVRQWKH use of natural resources, extreme events, energy, transport, and sustainable cities. It represents a comprehensive approach to tackle the impact of climate change in three VHFWRUV DJULFXOWXUH ¿VKHULHV DQG IRUHVWU\7KH EOXHSULQW RI WKHHQYLVDJHG$6($1&RPPXQLW\E\VHWVWDUJHWVXQGHU the forestry sector to support global and regional initiatives to reduce emissions from deforestation and forest degradation. Under its Vision 25/25 (the government’s energy strategy), Indonesia, one of ASEAN’s largest economies, targets a 25 per cent renewable share in its energy mix by 2025. Indonesia LVHVWLPDWHGWRKROGSHUFHQWRIWKHZRUOG¶VWRWDOJHRWKHUPDO energy (sustainable energy generated and stored in the Earth) potential, but so far has harnessed only a tiny fraction of it. Yet, despite the similarities in aims and ambitions, the EU and ASEAN have so far failed to join forces at the global climate change conferences. There is, however, budding recognition of the scope for the two blocs to align positions WRDGGUHVVFOLPDWHFKDQJH7KH¿UVWPHHWLQJRIWKH$6($1 (8'LDORJXHRQ&OLPDWH&KDQJHWRRNSODFHLQ Mapping EU-ASEAN Relations &%51 LVVXHV DUH DQRWKHU DUHD ZKHUH LQWHUHVWV FRLQFLGH DQG concrete bilateral cooperation can be developed, in particular at the multilateral level. EU and ASEAN member states are signatories of both the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty 137 DQG WKH &RPSUHKHQVLYH 7HVW %DQ 7UHDW\ &7%7 and are strong proponents of non-proliferation. In addition, ASEAN countries signed in 1995 the Bangkok Treaty, PDNLQJ 6RXWK(DVW $VLD D QXFOHDU ZHDSRQV IUHH ]RQH $V large regional blocs, the EU and ASEAN together can make D VHULRXV FRQWULEXWLRQ WR JOREDO HIIRUWV WR FRPEDW &%51 ULVNVDQGWKUHDWV,QWKH8QLRQODXQFKHGWKH(8&%51 &HQWUHVRI([FHOOHQFHLQLWLDWLYHLQFRRSHUDWLRQZLWKWKH8QLWHG 1DWLRQV ,QWHUUHJLRQDO &ULPH DQG -XVWLFH 5HVHDUFK ,QVWLWXWH 81,&5,7KHLQLWLDWLYHLQYROYHVPRUHWKDQFRXQWULHVDQG aims to facilitate cooperation and coordination of national and regional efforts and to develop national response plans according to international standards. The EU-sponsored 6RXWK(DVW $VLDQ &%51 &HQWUH HVWDEOLVKHG LQ 0DQLOD LQ 2013, could prove effective in developing and coordinating national response plans within ASEAN and enabling regional coordination. On the international level, EU-ASEAN ties could reverberate deep. Their shared interests on global security and peace, in particular on counter-terrorism, rule of law, management of shared commons, economic stability, and climate change action provide the fabric for stronger mutual engagement in reforming and supporting global governance. Prospects for the ASEAN-EU partnership ASEAN and the EU represent major opportunities for each RWKHU $FFRUGLQJ WR ,+6 *OREDO ,QVLJKW E\ WKH \HDU ASEAN may have a $10 trillion economy. Taken as a bloc, it would eclipse Japan’s economy and become one of the world’s WRS¿YHHFRQRPLHV$FFRUGLQJWRWKHVHSURMHFWLRQVOHVVWKDQ 1 per cent would live in extreme poverty, per capita income would be as high as $12,000 and 65 per cent of ASEAN’s population would belong to the middle class (up from the FXUUHQW SHU FHQW RU DQ LQFUHPHQW RI DERXW PLOOLRQ +RPH WR D SRSXODWLRQ RI PLOOLRQ SHRSOH E\ ZLWK 15 favourable demographics, ASEAN will be at the core of the fastest growing region on the planet. Aside from Singapore, the current tier of more prosperous ASEAN member states including Indonesia, Vietnam, Philippines, Malaysia, and Thailand represent a new generation of high-growth emerging economies. 16 Indonesia’s rise stands out. According to the National ,QWHOOLJHQFH &RXQFLO¶V *OREDO7UHQGV 5HSRUW E\ Indonesia may become the seventh-largest economy in the ZRUOG RYHUWDNLQJ WKH 8. DQG *HUPDQ\ DQG UDQNLQJ IRXUWK LQ WHUPV RI FRQVXPSWLRQ SRZHU DIWHU ,QGLD &KLQD DQG WKH US. Its rise would be supported by its robust potential for growth, with a favourable age structure (70 per cent of its by then 289 million strong population would be between 15–69 \HDUV RI DJH DQG SHU FHQW EHWZHHQ ± D FRQVXPHU FODVVRIPLOOLRQXSIURPPLOOLRQWRGD\DQGDUDSLG urbanisation rate (71 per cent of the population living in cities DQGSURGXFLQJSHUFHQWRI*'3 The less-developed ASEAN members, including Lao 3'5 &DPERGLD DQG 0\DQPDU KROG WKH PRVW SURPLVH LQ terms of expected growth rates and largest (in relation to their population) increment of the middle class. Myanmar in particular holds much potential for rapid growth and development given its rich natural resources, abundant labour IRUFH DQG VWUDWHJLF ORFDWLRQ EHWZHHQ &KLQD DQG ,QGLD 7KH International Monetary Fund (IMF) has forecast Myanmar’s HFRQRPLF JURZWK DW SHU FHQW LQ ZKLOH WKH $VLDQ 'HYHORSPHQW%DQN$'%SUHGLFWVDSHUFHQW*'3JURZWK annually for the next two decades if the country’s political and economic reforms continue. According to McKinsey *URXSE\0\DQPDUZRXOGEHDELOOLRQHFRQRP\ D IROG ULVH ZLWK PLOOLRQ PLGGOHFODVV FRQVXPHUV million today) and a threefold rise in consumer spending from $35 billion to $100 billion. +RZHYHU WKH UHTXLUHPHQWV IRU WKH XUEDQLVDWLRQ DQG infrastructure development of ASEAN countries are VLJQL¿FDQW :KLOH HVWLPDWHV IRU WKH EORF DV D ZKROH KDYH not been drawn, according to McKinsey just Myanmar would need around $650 billion in investments to achieve its growth potential by 2030. Released in 2011, Indonesia’s infrastructure master plan for economic development through 2025 (called MP3EI) envisages eight infrastructure projects LQFOXGLQJ NP RI UDLOZD\V NP RI URDGV NP RI EULGJHVDQGQHZDLUSRUWVDQGDQLQYHVWPHQWUHTXLUHPHQW of nearly $500 billion, a third of which would come from the government, and the rest from the private sector. The inadequacy of infrastructure in ASEAN member countries impedes the integration of the South-East Asian market and reduces the overall competitiveness of the bloc against Mapping EU-ASEAN Relations PDMRUUHJLRQDOSDUWQHUV,QGLDDQG&KLQD*LYHQWKHSHFXOLDU geographical location of ASEAN, scattered over water bodies and international maritime bottlenecks, connectivity within the bloc will be critical in order to ensure growth as a regional organisation and an economic entity. Prospects for ASEAN growth up to 2030 represent major opportunities for the EU to generate prosperity, growth, and jobs back home. The EU is best placed to create a continental level platform for European companies investing in SouthEast Asia, for example in the infrastructure construction sector. McKinsey notes that Indonesia’s path to modernisation and urbanisation alone ‘could create a $1.8 trillion private-sector business opportunity by 2030’. Urbanisation partnerships with ASEAN countries can become a building-bloc of forward-looking relations in a domain where the EU has much expertise, in particular as concerns connectivity. The recent normalisation of relations between the EU and Myanmar RIIHUVD¿OOLS,QDGGLWLRQWKH(8FDQSOD\DUROHLQKHOSLQJ $6($1WRDGGUHVV¿QDQFLDOVHFWRUGHYHORSPHQWFRRUGLQDWH macro-economic policies, and enhance rule-making capacity and transparency at a supranational level. The EU-ASEAN relationship must now move to the next level and both sides need to make efforts to underpin a changing SDUWQHUVKLS*OREDODQGUHJLRQDOFKDQJHVKDYHJLYHQ$6($1 QHZFRQ¿GHQFHDQGPDQ\PRUHFRXUWHUVWRR-DSDQKDVUHFHQWO\ extended almost $20 billion in aid to ASEAN countries aimed at development and disaster preparedness, to be delivered in WKHQH[W¿YH\HDUV:KLOHKDVEHHQGXEEHGWKHµ$VLDQ 6HPHVWHU¶LQWHUPVRIWKHIUHTXHQF\RIWRS(8RI¿FLDOV¶YLVLWV to the region, the EU needs to sustain the momentum. Unlike established global powers, the EU’s ever changing, complex, sui generis structure means that it has constantly to engage external partners in order to improve their understanding of its functioning and objectives, including vis-à-vis ASEAN. While seeking an equal partnership with the EU beyond the traditional donor-recipient angle, ASEAN should make proDFWLYH HIIRUWV WR GHYHORS D PXWXDOO\ EHQH¿FLDO UHODWLRQVKLS In this regard, facilitating the EU’s engagement in its own region and regional formats would be an effective option. By supporting the EU’s EAS bid, ASEAN stands to gain a likeminded partner and a deeper partnership. 17 Conclusion The EU-ASEAN relationship contains many ingredients of a VWUDWHJLFSDUWQHUVKLSJURZLQJSROLWLFDOZLOODQGLQVWLWXWLRQDO capacity and a wealth of ideas and initiatives to develop. Both partners can do a lot to achieve respective strategic needs. EU-ASEAN relations have grown in parallel to both regional blocs’ integration and future relations hold further potential. 18 By acknowledging each other as strategic partners, the EU and ASEAN would send a strong signal to one another and the rest of the world regarding the importance they attach both to bilateral relations and to the notion of regional integration. Such an upgrade in relations would also facilitate Europe’s engagement in the broader Asian theatre. While the EU has DFFHGHG WR WKH 7UHDW\ RI $PLW\ DQG &RRSHUDWLRQ 7$& LQ South-East Asia, its membership of the EAS remains pending until it can demonstrate a stronger commitment to the region and Asian countries are persuaded of the added-value that the Union could bring. The EU and ASEAN have a multi-layered relationship, but there is no bilateral summit mechanism at the highest level of OHDGHUVKLSWRGLVFXVVWKHWRSLVVXHVRQWKHDJHQGD&XUUHQWO\ the highest-level meeting between the two sides is the ASEAN-EU Ministerial Meeting. Summits can often provide a very important political impetus to bilateral relations and, if carried out well, can present an opportunity to craft strategic SULRULWLHV 7KH FKDQJLQJ JHRSROLWLFV LQ WKH $VLD 3DFL¿F requires even closer coordination amongst partners. Summits could also bring much-needed coverage to the relationship and could help raise the visibility of the EU and ASEAN in each other’s regions. There is no individual EU Ambassador or Special Representative assigned to ASEAN, nor is there an ASEAN Ambassador to the EU. The EU Ambassador to Indonesia also serves as an Ambassador to ASEAN (and Brunei Darussalam). ,Q DGGLWLRQ (8 PHPEHU VWDWHV KDYH DFFUHGLWHG WKHLU ambassadors to ASEAN. The 10 Ambassadors of ASEAN member countries to the EU engage on ASEAN-related matters with the EU while representing their nations. The US has assigned a separate Ambassador to ASEAN since 2011 in recognition of the growing importance of the organisation, as well as the need to increase engagement with the bloc. The creation of equivalent posts between the EU and Mapping EU-ASEAN Relations ASEAN could enhance diplomatic relations by facilitating communication, increase the focus on the relationship, and send a signal regarding the strategic significance of the bilateral relationship for both sides. The 2012 Bandar Seri Bagawan Action Plan has set an important roadmap to strengthen cooperation and dialogue EHWZHHQ WKH (8 DQG $6($1 IRU WKH QH[W ¿YH \HDUV EXW relations need to be underpinned by a stronger political endorsement that upgrades the 2007 EU-ASEAN Enhanced Partnership to a strategic partnership. Q 19 Brunei DWI BUDHI CAHYONO / FLICKR EU-Brunei Darussalam relations were established through WKH (&$6($1 &RRSHUDWLRQ $JUHHPHQW DIWHU %UXQHL MRLQHG WKH UHJLRQDO JURXSLQJ LQ IROORZLQJ LWV independence from the UK. A micro nation of around half a million people on the island of Borneo, Brunei is the fifthULFKHVW FRXQWU\ LQ WKH ZRUOG LQ WHUPV RI *'3 SHU FDSLWD A Muslim Sultanate, Brunei’s economy grew by 56 per cent between 1999–2008 (thanks to crude oil and natural JDV SURGXFWLRQ DFFRXQWLQJ IRU SHU FHQW RI LWV *'3 DQG nearly 95 per cent of exports), transforming the country into a developed, industrialised nation. Brunei ranks second on WKH +XPDQ 'HYHORSPHQW ,QGH[ +', LQ 6RXWK(DVW $VLD after Singapore. The last four years have seen an intensification of the relatively limited bilateral relations between the EU and Brunei. For a period of three years starting in July 2009 Brunei was the country-coordinator for ASEAN-EU relations and in 2013 it held the ASEAN chairmanship. EU +LJK 5HSUHVHQWDWLYH &DWKHULQH $VKWRQ WUDYHOOHG WZLFH WR Brunei in the past two years. In April 2012, she attended the EU-ASEAN Ministerial Meeting, where she also met 6XOWDQ +DVVDQDO %RONLDK DQG VHQLRU PLQLVWHUV7KH %DQGDU Brunei Seri Bagawan Action Plan to Strengthen the ASEAN-EU Enhanced Partnership (2013–17) was also signed at the meeting. During the same visit, the EU and Brunei decided WR ODXQFK QHJRWLDWLRQV RQ D 3DUWQHUVKLS DQG &RRSHUDWLRQ $JUHHPHQW3&$WKDWLVQRWRQO\H[SHFWHGWRSDYHWKHZD\ towards a Free Trade Agreement (FTA) with the EU, but which will also allow both sides to strengthen cooperation in areas like climate change, sustainable development, culture, and education. The fourth round of negotiations was completed in November 2013 and the next round is VFKHGXOHGIRUWKHILUVWKDOIRI*LYHQWKDW%UXQHLLVQR ORQJHUHOLJLEOHIRUWUDGHEHQHILWVXQGHUWKH(8¶V*HQHUDOLVHG 6FKHPH RI 3UHIHUHQFHV *63 DV RI -DQXDU\ DQ )7$ would also help the EU tap into the full economic potential of the EU-Brunei relationship. Trade between the EU and Brunei is very small, with just ¼ELOOLRQLQ,WKDVKRZHYHUULVHQFRQVLGHUDEO\ since 2008 and more than doubled in one year, from €599 billion in 2011. Bilateral trade consists of mainly merchandise, motor vehicles, and chemicals. The UK is an important trade partner for Brunei, accounting for the PDMRULW\RI(8WUDGHIROORZHGE\*HUPDQ\WKH1HWKHUODQGV France, and Belgium. Overall, the EU is Brunei’s fifthlargest trading partner after Japan, South Korea, Singapore, DQG&KLQD-DSDQ6RXWK.RUHDDQGRWKHU$6($1FRXQWULHV are the key consumers of Brunei’s principal exports of natural gas, crude petroleum, and refined products. The EU is also the largest investor in Brunei, with almost 70 per cent of foreign direct investment (FDI) into the country, most of which comes from the UK and France. The UK in particular LVWKHVHFRQGODUJHVWLQYHVWRULQ%UXQHLDIWHU&KLQD EU member states’ economic diplomacy has been strong in Asia, including in Brunei. Other priorities of the relationship include cooperation on natural disasters, the prolonged WUDQVERXQGDU\ KD]H SUREOHP GXH WR VPRNH IURP ILUHV burning across the border in Indonesia and affecting Brunei, 21 Malaysia, Singapore, Indonesia, and Southern Thailand), DQG HGXFDWLRQ UHIRUP +XPDQ ULJKWV LVVXHV LQFOXGLQJ caning, lack of free media, freedom of peaceful assembly and association, political rights, religious freedom, and /*%7OHVELDQJD\ELVH[XDODQGWUDQVJHQGHUULJKWVZLOO EH FRQWHQWLRXV GXULQJ 3&$ QHJRWLDWLRQV ZKLFK LQFOXGH D human rights clause. 22 The EU has no permanent representation in Brunei and the EU Ambassador to Jakarta and ASEAN oversees relations with the country. Brunei officials note that the EU became a more visible partner only after the 2011 announcement of the US pivot to Asia, when bilateral and inter-regional relations appeared to have shifted gear. The US has been increasing its political investment in Brunei. Former Secretary of 6WDWH &OLQWRQ YLVLWHG WKH FRXQWU\ WZLFH DQG WKH 2EDPD administration is seeking to enhance cooperation, especially in the education sector. Brunei has also received a number RI KLJKOHYHO YLVLWV IURP &KLQD ± LWV ODUJHVW LQYHVWRU NH\ trading partner, as well as disputant concerning the South &KLQD6HD7KHQXPEHURI&KLQHVHFRPSDQLHVDQGWKHVL]H RI WKH &KLQHVH GLDVSRUD LQ %UXQHL DUH YHU\ ODUJH &KLQD LV ERWKDULYDOLQWKH6RXWK&KLQD6HDGLVSXWHDQGDQHFRQRPLF opportunity, whereas the US provides security cooperation. Still, Brunei is interested in developing political relations with the EU, especially in order to diversify its foreign SDUWQHUV*UHDWHUSROLWLFDOHQJDJHPHQWEHWZHHQWKH(8DQG Brunei would fare well for the region, which welcomes the EU’s presence, and would enhance the Union’s role and visibility. O Cambodia / FLICKR MIGUEL VICENTE MARTÍNEZ JUAN alex indigo / flickr photos (8&DPERGLD UHODWLRQV DUH VWURQJO\ URRWHG LQ SRYHUW\ reduction and rural development, with a political dimension that emphasises democracy, human rights, fundamental freedoms, rule of law, and good governance. The Paris Peace Accords of 23 October 1991 opened the door to cooperation EHWZHHQWKH(XURSHDQ&RPPXQLW\DQG&DPERGLDDQGVLQFH then the EU has been an integral partner in the country’s GHYHORSPHQW SURFHVV 7KH &RRSHUDWLRQ$JUHHPHQW VHW WKHIUDPHZRUNIRUELODWHUDOUHODWLRQVDQGLQ&DPERGLD MRLQHG WKH (&$6($1 &RRSHUDWLRQ $JUHHPHQW $ MRLQW FRPPLWWHH PHHWV HYHU\ WZR \HDUV DW VHQLRU RI¿FLDOV¶ OHYHODQGGLVFXVVHVWKHHQWLUHVSHFWUXPRIWKH(8&DPERGLD relationship, including human rights issues. After a long history of repression, especially under the Khmer 5RXJH UHJLPH &DPERGLD KDV VXUIDFHG LQWR D G\QDPLF DQG vibrant emerging Asia. Between 1991 and 2001, the EU H[WHQGHG DURXQG ¼ PLOOLRQ LQ DVVLVWDQFH WR &DPERGLD in addition to approximately €600 million from various EU member states through cooperation programmes. The EU and its member states also played an important role in the rehabilitation and reintegration of around 375,000 former UHIXJHHV$IWHUWKHFRXQWU\¶V¿UVWHOHFWLRQVZKLFKZHUHKHOG Cambodia LQ WKH (8¶V 5HKDELOLWDWLRQ 3URJUDPPH IRU &DPERGLD 3(5& ZDV ODXQFKHG ZLWK D WRWDO EXGJHW RI ¼ PLOOLRQ The EU also provided €135 million from 2002–6 for rural development, social programmes (especially women, urban youth, child care, and development), trade sector development HVSHFLDOO\ VXSSRUWLQJ VPDOO DQG PHGLXPVL]HG HQWHUSULVHV LQ WKH DJURLQGXVWU\ SXEOLF ¿QDQFH PDQDJHPHQW UHIRUP and the promotion of human rights, democratisation, and good governance. In 2007–13, the EU provided €76 million IRU &DPERGLD¶V 1DWLRQDO 6WUDWHJLF 'HYHORSPHQW 3ODQ IRU SRYHUW\ UHGXFWLRQ DQG EDVLF HGXFDWLRQ ZKLFK DLPV WR IXO¿O WKH0LOOHQQLXP'HYHORSPHQW*RDOV0'*V $V D /HDVW 'HYHORSHG &RXQWU\ /'& &DPERGLD EHQH¿WV from the Everything But Arms (EBA) framework, the EU’s most extensive trade preference system. Although relatively VPDOO LQ (8&DPERGLD WUDGH VWRRG DW ¼ ELOOLRQ having almost quadrupled from €588 million in 2008. The (8LV&DPERGLD¶V¿IWKODUJHVWWUDGLQJSDUWQHUDIWHU7KDLODQG 9LHWQDP &KLQD DQG WKH 86 ZLWK D SHU FHQW VKDUH RI &DPERGLD¶VWRWDOH[WHUQDOPHUFKDQGLVHWUDGH7UDGHDQGWUDGH VHFWRUUHVWUXFWXULQJDUHFUXFLDOIRULQWHJUDWLQJ&DPERGLDLQWR the global economy and pushing through governance reforms at the national and local levels. The EU is the world’s largest donor of Trade-Related Assistance (TRA) through the multidonor Enhanced Integrated Framework (EIF) for TRA to /'&V 7KH (8 ERWK ELODWHUDOO\ DQG WKURXJK PHPEHU VWDWH FRRSHUDWLRQ KDV DOVR DVVLVWHG &DPERGLD EHWWHU WR LQWHJUDWH into the world trading system, contributing in particular to capacity-building measures to meet the obligations under the World Trade Organisation (WTO). 25 &DPERGLD JUHZ DW DQ DYHUDJH RI SHU FHQW SHU \HDU IURP ± RQH RI WKH ZRUOG¶V WRS IDVWHVWJURZLQJ countries) despite a record low of 0.1 per cent in 2009, and the JRYHUQPHQW ZDV FRQ¿GHQW WKDW WKH HFRQRP\ ZRXOG JURZ DW SHUFHQWLQ7KH&DPERGLDQSULYDWHVHFWRUHVSHFLDOO\ the textile and tourism industries) has been the key driver of HFRQRPLFJURZWKDQGSRYHUW\UHGXFWLRQ7RXULVP&DPERGLD¶V fastest-growing industry and one of the main pillars of the country’s economy, grew dramatically from 219,000 tourists in 1997 to 3.58 million foreign tourists in 2012, generating $2.2 billion in revenues. 3ROLWLFDOO\ WKH (8&DPERGLD GLDORJXH KDV IRFXVHG PXFK on governance reform and human rights. Despite the limited 26 SROLWLFDO VSDFH DOORZHG GHPRFUDF\ LQ &DPERGLD KDV EHHQ slowly developing. Over the years, the EU has positively contributed to this incremental progress. The EU has sent various election observer missions to the country and has DVVLVWHG &DPERGLDQ RI¿FLDOV DQG WKH HOHFWRUDO FRPPLVVLRQ on capacity-building and democracy consolidation at the local level. An EU aid package of €10.75 million for the 1998 national elections provided for a new electoral register, D 1DWLRQDO (OHFWLRQ &RPPLWWHH¶V PHGLD FHQWUH D PHGLD monitoring unit, and a European observation unit. The EU (OHFWLRQ2EVHUYDWLRQ0LVVLRQWRWKH)HEUXDU\&RPPXQH &RXQFLO (OHFWLRQV ZKLFK SDYHG WKH ZD\ IRU &DPERGLD¶V HIIRUWV DW GHFHQWUDOLVDWLRQ ZDV WKH ¿UVW PLVVLRQ VHQW E\ WKH Union to observe local level elections in the country. The EU also contributed to various polling and training material in addition to technical assistance and expertise. Despite the government’s authoritarian style of governance DQG WKH ORQJ WHQXUH RI 3ULPH 0LQLVWHU +XQ 6HQ VLQFH &DPERGLD KDV UHJLVWHUHG VRPH QRWDEOH SURJUHVV LQ WHUPV RI building democratic institutions and practises, the emergence of a strong civil society and a strong opposition party, the &DPERGLD1DWLRQDO5HVFXH3DUW\&153RQHRIWKHFRXQWU\¶V HLJKW SROLWLFDO SDUWLHV +RZHYHU PDQ\ FKDOOHQJHV SHUVLVW including corruption, lack of transparency, land-grabbing, political oppression, and freedom of expression. This makes the case for greater EU engagement on democracy and good JRYHUQDQFHHVSHFLDOO\LQOLJKWRIWKHFRXQWHUYDLOLQJLQÀXHQFH of other actors. 5HJLRQDO DFWRUV OLNH &KLQD -DSDQ DQG7KDLODQG DUH SOD\LQJ LQFUHDVLQJO\ LPSRUWDQW UROHV LQ &DPERGLD -DSDQ LV WKH FRXQWU\¶V ODUJHVW GRQRU RI RI¿FLDO GHYHORSPHQW DVVLVWDQFH 2'$7KDLODQGLV&DPERGLD¶VODUJHVWWUDGLQJSDUWQHUDQGD JURZLQJLQYHVWRU&DPERGLDDOVRKDVDWHUULWRULDOGLVSXWHZLWK 7KDLODQGRYHU*XOIRI7KDLODQGZDWHUVXQGHUZKLFKODUJHRLO and gas reserves have been recently discovered. While Thai&DPERGLDQ UHODWLRQV FRXOG JHQHUDWH SRWHQWLDO LQVWDELOLW\ especially within ASEAN, trade has grown by almost 60 per FHQWLQWKHSDVWWZR\HDUVDORQH&KLQDLVWKHODUJHVWIRUHLJQ LQYHVWRU LQ &DPERGLD EHVLGHV EHLQJ D PDMRU DLG GRQRU DQG D NH\ WUDGLQJ SDUWQHU 7KH &RXQFLO IRU 'HYHORSPHQW RI &DPERGLD QRWHV WKDW IURP WR WRWDO &KLQHVH LQYHVWPHQW LQ &DPERGLD UHDFKHG ELOOLRQ &KLQD¶V DLG has played a positive role in the country through the creation of rural employment, hydropower development projects, and infrastructure projects (roads, buildings, bridges, etc) that have KHOSHGGHYHORSWKHHFRQRP\<HW&KLQD¶VµQRVWULQJVDWWDFKHG¶ Cambodia aid has exacerbated the country’s social, environmental, and political problems, in particular by increasing corruption levels and deteriorating labour conditions, governance and KXPDQ ULJKWV QDWXUDO UHVRXUFHV DQG ELRGLYHUVLW\ &KLQD has also used its aid for political reasons, by strong-arming &DPERGLDLQWDNLQJLVVXHZLWKRWKHU$6($1PHPEHUVRQWKH 6RXWK&KLQD6HDLVVXH,QDV$6($1&KDLU&DPERGLD UHIXVHG DQ\ PHQWLRQ RI WKH 6RXWK &KLQD 6HD LQ WKH JURXS¶V foreign ministers’ meeting in July in Phnom Penh, resulting LQWKHIDLOXUHIRUWKH¿UVWWLPHLQ$6($1¶V\HDUKLVWRU\WR issue a joint communiqué. 7KHUH LV D QHHG IRU JUHDWHU (8 HQJDJHPHQW ZLWK &DPERGLD both economically and politically. In economic terms, aid and investment remain crucial. Augmenting trade is important. +HOSLQJ WKH FRXQWU\ RQ LQIUDVWUXFWXUH SURMHFWV FRXOG IXUWKHU enhance the economy and generate employment, especially in rural areas. Energy is another area for cooperation and while &DPERGLD LV LQYROYHG ZLWK LWV QHLJKERXUV RQ UHJLRQDO ZDWHU management initiatives, there is space to broaden cooperation ZLWKWKH(8LQWKLV¿HOGWRRHVSHFLDOO\RQDOWHUQDWLYHHQHUJ\ sources. Politically, the two partners should look for common grounds to address governance challenges. Failure to resolve governance issues is a key obstacle to poverty reduction, growth, and aid effectiveness. The EU should seek to play a greater role in promoting democracy and fundamental freedoms LQWKHFRXQWU\HVSHFLDOO\YLVjYLV&KLQD¶VJURZLQJLQÀXHQFH in Asia and the allure of the success of an authoritarian style RI JRYHUQDQFH &DPERGLD DOVR SUHVHQWV LPSRUWDQW DYHQXHV for EU-US cooperation in areas such as governance reform, development, security, education, and capacity-building. *UHDWHU GLDORJXH ZLWK &KLQD RQ DLG GHOLYHU\ LQ WKH FRXQWU\ should also be explored. O 27 Indonesia ABRAHAM ARTHEMIUS / FLICKR EU-Indonesia relations date back to 1967 and were formalised unGHUWKH(&$6($1&RRSHUDWLRQ$JUHHPHQW:KLOHFRRSHUDtion takes place mainly under the EU-ASEAN Dialogue umbrella, the bilateral relationship framework does support a number of political and economic dialogues. An annual ministerial meeting takes SODFHDORQJVLGHDVHULHVRIVHQLRURI¿FLDOV¶PHHWLQJVWKURXJKRXWWKH \HDU7KH(8,QGRQHVLD3DUWQHUVKLSDQG&RRSHUDWLRQ$JUHHPHQW 3&$VLJQHGLQZLOOHVWDEOLVKDPRUHVWUXFWXUHGIUDPHZRUN IRUELODWHUDOGLDORJXHRQFHWKHUDWL¿FDWLRQSURFHVVLVFRPSOHWH7KH priorities of the relationship include trade and investment, tourism, agriculture, environment, as well as research and technical issues. Indonesia is the EU’s fourth-largest trading partner within ASEAN and 29th overall with a 0.7 per cent share of the EU’s total trade. The EU is Indonesia’s fourth-largest trade partner JOREDOO\DIWHU-DSDQ&KLQDDQG6LQJDSRUHKROGLQJDQSHU cent share of Indonesia’s external trade. In 2012 bilateral merchandise trade stood at €25 billion, while trade in commercial VHUYLFHV DPRXQWHG WR ¼ ELOOLRQ LQ DFFRXQWLQJ IRU per cent of total trade. EU exports have doubled in the last VL[\HDUVUHDFKLQJRYHU¼ELOOLRQLQZLWKWUDGHGH¿FLW stabilising at around €5.7 billion. The EU’s key imports from Indonesia include agricultural products (mainly palm oil), fuHOVDQGPLQLQJSURGXFWVWH[WLOHVDQGIXUQLWXUHPHDQZKLOH(8 Indonesia exports to Indonesia consist largely of machinery and transport equipment, chemicals and other manufactured goods. The EU is the second-largest investor in the country. Around 700 European companies have more than €50 billion worth of investments there, contributing to the creation of around half a million ORFDOMREV*HUPDQ\DQGWKH1HWKHUODQGVDUHWKHWRS(8LQYHVWRUV in Indonesia. EU bilateral aid to the country for the period 2007–13 DPRXQWHGWR¼PLOOLRQ7KHUHZLOOEHQRIXWXUHELODWHUDODLGSURJUDPPHV XQGHU WKH 0XOWLDQQXDO )LQDQFLDO )UDPHZRUN ± JLYHQWKDW,QGRQHVLDD*PHPEHUZLWKDODUJHHFRQRP\LVFRQVLGHUHGWRKDYHJUDGXDWHGXQGHUWKH$JHQGDIRU&KDQJHSULQFLSOHV1 +RZHYHU LPSOHPHQWDWLRQ RI RQJRLQJ SURJUDPPHV ZLOO FRQWLQXH XQWLO7KH(8KDVDOVREHHQDFWLYHLQWKH¿HOGRIGLVDVWHUUHsponse (Aceh Multi-Donor Fund and Java Reconstruction Fund). In WKHDUHDRIKHDOWKWRJHWKHUZLWK*HUPDQ\DQG)UDQFHWKH(8FRQWULEXWHVVXEVWDQWLDOO\WRWKH*OREDO)XQGWR¿JKW$LGV7XEHUFXORVLV and Malaria – a challenge of particular relevance for Indonesia. But economic ties remain far below potential. While Indonesia DFFRXQWVIRUSHUFHQWRI$6($1*'3(8WUDGHZLWK,QGRQHVLD & I]Z6\ZcYV[dg8]Vc\Z^hi]ZWajZeg^ci[dg:JYZkZadebZcieda^XnVcYV^Yegd\gVbb^c\aVjcX]ZY ^cDXidWZg'%&&# LVRQO\DURXQGSHUFHQWRIWRWDO(8WUDGHZLWK$6($16LQJDpore, and not Indonesia, emerges as the EU’s main foreign direct investment (FDI) partner among ASEAN member countries. The 3&$VLJQHG¿YH\HDUVDJRKDVVWLOOQRWEHHQUDWL¿HG$Q(8,QGRnesia Free Trade Agreement (FTA) could unlock much potential, but is still in the early stages of scoping. With Indonesia having JUDGXDWHGRXWRIWKH(8¶V*HQHUDOLVHG6FKHPHRI7UDGH3UHIHUHQFHV *63 LQ -DQXDU\ WKH )7$ FDQ VLJQL¿FDQWO\ ERRVW WUDGH)RUDFRXQWU\ZLWKDQLQFUHDVLQJUHJLRQDODQGJOREDOSUR¿OH like Indonesia, the lack of a regular bilateral summit meeting affects the EU’s visibility in Jakarta. Indonesia is a religiously- and ethnically-diverse, democratic country, which embodies the EU’s catchphrase of ‘unity in diversity’. It is a promoter of closer regional integration within ASEAN and since 2002, it has been an advocate of democracy within the bloc DQGWKHZLGHU$VLD3DFL¿F,QGRQHVLDLVDOVRDVXFFHVVIXOPRGHO of governance that has reconciled Islam, democracy, and development. Bilaterally, the EU and Indonesia have shared interests in particular in countering terrorism, combating radicalisation, and ¿JKWLQJRWKHUQRQWUDGLWLRQDOVHFXULW\WKUHDWVLQFOXGLQJWUDI¿FNing (drugs, humans), piracy, natural disasters, serious communiFDEOHGLVHDVHVOLNH$YLDQLQÀXHQ]DLOOHJDOLPPLJUDWLRQ¿QDQFLDO DQGHFRQRPLFVHFXULW\DQGLQIRUPDWLRQVHFXULW\*OREDOO\WKH(8 29 and Indonesia have a shared belief in constructive multilateralism, global governance, and regional institutions. Indonesia looks to the EU as a partner in shaping a rules-based world order. 30 Indonesia is strategic to the EU’s interests for a number of reasons. As a global middle power and regional pivot, it belongs to WKHVHFRQGJHQHUDWLRQRIHPHUJLQJFRXQWULHVDIWHUWKH%5,&6± %UD]LO5XVVLD,QGLD&KLQDDQG6RXWK$IULFD±JURXSLQJ:LWK the fourth-largest population worldwide, Indonesia is also the world’s most populous Muslim nation and the third-largest democracy after India and the US. Nearly 250 million people live on its 17,500 islands. It is the 16th largest economy in the world, and one of the fastest-growing consumer markets, with a rapidly burgeoning middle class. By 2020, 8-9 million people are expected WRWUDQVLWLRQWRWKHPLGGOHFODVVHDFK\HDU7KH0F.LQVH\*OREDO Institute projects the island-nation to become the seventh-largest ZRUOGHFRQRP\E\DKHDGRIERWK*HUPDQ\DQGWKH8. Indonesia plays an important role in its sub-region. It is a driving force within ASEAN and has historically pushed for deeper integration of the bloc. When the group failed to issue a joint communiqué at the foreign ministers meeting in 2012, in the face of presVXUHIURP&KLQDRQWKH&DPERGLDQKRVWSRZHUIXOGLSORPDF\E\ Indonesia helped deliver an accord. Indonesia’s role in integrating Myanmar in particular has been crucial, by supervising and constantly encouraging Naypitaw to reform its authoritarian system. Indonesia is a model for democratic governance in the sub-region. The Bali Democracy Forum is the only ministerial-level meeting in Asia focused on democracy promotion. It is also an integral part of the region’s many other politico-security frameworks, most of which are ASEAN-centred. As ASEAN’s largest economy, IndoQHVLDZLOOEHDPDMRUSOD\HULQWKH$6($1(FRQRPLF&RPPXQLW\ by 2015. Its economy is deeply entangled within the noodle-bowl of Asian FTAs (with 21 FTAs in total, either proposed, signed RU XQGHU QHJRWLDWLRQ *LYHQ WKDW WKH 7UDQV3DFL¿F 3DUWQHUVKLS (TPP) does not include all ASEAN members, Jakarta is boosting the group’s efforts to create a Free Trade Area of the Asia PaFL¿FWKURXJKWKH5HJLRQDO&RPSUHKHQVLYH(FRQRPLF3DUWQHUVKLS 5&(3LQLWLDWLYH ,QGRQHVLDKDVDJURZLQJJOREDOSUR¿OHRQHQYLURQPHQWDOLVVXHV too. The country is highly vulnerable to the effects of climate FKDQJHDQGLWLVVLJQL¿FDQWO\ULFKLQQDWXUDOUHVRXUFHVLWVELRGLYHUVLW\LVVHFRQGRQO\WR%UD]LO¶V,QGRQHVLDQRWRQO\KDVWKHZRUOG¶V second-largest tropical forest, but it is also the greatest repository of marine biological resources. Indonesia is the second-largest exSRUWHURIWKHUPDOFRDODQGKDVVLJQL¿FDQWFUXGHRLOQDWXUDOJDV DQGJHRWKHUPDOUHVRXUFHV+RZHYHULWLVWKHWKLUGODUJHVWHPLWWHU Indonesia RIJUHHQKRXVHJDVHV*+*LQWKHZRUOGDIWHUWKH86DQG&KLQD and has a highly accelerated deforestation rate. ,QGRQHVLDFDQEHVLQJXODUO\LQÀXHQWLDOLQJOREDODFWLRQDJDLQVWFOLmate change. Jakarta has been a constructive actor in South-East $VLDZLWKLQWKH*DQGRWKHUIRUDLQSURPRWLQJEHWWHUFOLPDWH action. The country has unilaterally undertaken an ambitious target of 25 per cent emissions’ reduction by 2025, and has envisDJHG UDLVLQJ LW WR SHU FHQW GHSHQGLQJ RQ LQWHUQDWLRQDO DVVLVtance. There is large scope for the EU to engage constructively with Indonesia on energy and climate change issues. ,QJHRSROLWLFDOWHUPV,QGRQHVLD¿QGVLWVHOISOD\LQJDGLI¿FXOWEDODQFLQJDFWEHWZHHQJOREDOKHDY\ZHLJKWVVXFKDVWKH86&KLQD Japan, and India. Indonesia employs a strategy of dynamic equiOLEULXPLQRUGHUWRDYRLGDUHJLRQDOFRQÀLFWRUDSRZHUVKDULQJ arrangement among major powers. In this sense, the notion of ASEAN centrality has become a cornerstone in Indonesia’s foreign policy, and Jakarta endeavours to promote ASEAN initiatives within the region. Indonesia’s role extends well beyond regional ERUGHUVKRZHYHUPDLQO\WKURXJKLWVPHPEHUVKLSRIWKH*DQG RI WKH 2UJDQLVDWLRQ RI ,VODPLF &RXQWULHV 2,&7KH FRXQWU\ LV also an active contributor to UN peacekeeping operations, with over 1,500 personnel deployed in 2012. Indonesia’s strategic location in particular makes the country an important partner on maritime security. Indonesia separates the ,QGLDQDQGWKH3DFL¿F2FHDQVDQGLVKRPHWRFUXFLDOLQWHUQDWLRQDO FKRNHSRLQWVWKH6WUDLWVRI0DODFFD6XQGDDQG/RPERN0DNDVsar. More than half of global trade passes through Indonesian waters, making the country a key player in maritime transport. While ,QGRQHVLDKDVQRWHUULWRULDOFODLPVLQWKH6RXWK&KLQD6HDGLVSXWH it has engaged in promoting a peaceful settlement, in particular through ASEAN efforts to establish a code of conduct. 31 There is scope to raise the level of EU political engagement with Indonesia and develop a dynamic foreign and security policy dialogue. An annual summit between the two partners could help upgrade the partnership. There is an urgent need to commence FTA negotiations to tap into the opportunities that Indonesia presents and to deepen relatively shallow bilateral investment ties. Among RWKHUVHFWRUVDQXUEDQLVDWLRQSDUWQHUVKLSFRXOGKHOSWKH(8VHL]H VLJQL¿FDQWRSSRUWXQLWLHVZKLOHKHOSLQJ,QGRQHVLDDWWDLQLWVXUEDQ development goals. O Lao PDR LARRY W. LO/ FLICKR Development cooperation has provided the foundation of the EU-Lao People’s Democratic Republic (PDR) relationship, which in recent years has focused on economic liberalisation and Lao PDR’s integration into the wider world economy. %HJLQQLQJ LQ WKH V WKH UHODWLRQVKLS ZDV UHDI¿UPHG WKURXJK D &RRSHUDWLRQ $JUHHPHQW VLJQHG LQ ZKHQ /DR PDR joined ASEAN. In 2000, the country acceded to the 1980 (&$6($1 &RRSHUDWLRQ $JUHHPHQW WKXV DOORZLQJ LW WR participate in region-to-region cooperation programmes. The 1997 agreement has provided the dialogue and cooperation structure of the relationship. While development cooperation has been the mainstay of the partnership, political engagement and economic exchanges – also thanks to the EU’s Everything But Arms (EBA) scheme – have been crucial components. The EU has worked closely with Lao PDR’s government on the national reform agenda, economic liberalisation, poverty reduction and in raising the standard of living of the population, as well as on better integrating the country into the international arena. Today, Lao PDR is part of the World Trade Organisation (WTO), ASEAN, the East Asia Summit (EAS), La Francophonie, and the Asia Pacific Trade Agreement, amongst many other frameworks. Lao PDR is DOVRDFWLYHO\HQJDJHGLQWKH*UHDWHU0HNRQJ6XE5HJLRQLQLWLDWLYH Lao PDR $V D ODQGORFNHG GHYHORSLQJ FRXQWU\ /DR 3'5 GHSHQGV ¿UVW DQG IRUHPRVW RQ LWV QHLJKERXUV 0\DQPDU &KLQD 9LHWQDP &DPERGLD DQG 7KDLODQG 1RQHWKHOHVV WKH (8 KDV EHHQ DQ important international partner, especially in terms of poverty reduction. A third of Lao PDR’s 6.5 million people still live under the international poverty line. Lao PDR aims to leave WKHJURXSRI/HDVW'HYHORSHG&RXQWULHV/'&E\)URP 1993 to 2013, the EU provided approximately €170 million in development aid. During the same period, Lao PDR also benH¿WHGIURPRWKHU$VLDZLGHSURMHFWV¿QDQFHGE\WKH(8(XURpean development assistance to the country has mainly focused on, and has made an important contribution to, agriculture and rural development, trade and economic development, public ¿QDQFLDOPDQDJHPHQWHGXFDWLRQDQGKHDOWKUHGXFWLRQRIWKH Unexploded Ordnance (UXO) threats, good governance and human rights, and climate change. In recent years, the EU has shifted its approach to development cooperation towards sustained, longer-term budget support, which underpins closer engagement and policy dialogue with the government, structural reforms and aid effectiveness. Fifty-eight per cent of total EU support under the EU’s Strategy Paper for 2007–13 (€69 million) was allocated to the government’s reform agenda under the national development strategy – the National Socio-Economic Development Plan (NSEDP) –, helping to DFKLHYH WKH 0LOOHQQLXP 'HYHORSPHQW *RDOV 0'*V 6LQFH KXPDQLWDULDQDLGKDVDOVREHHQH[WHQGHGWKURXJK(&+2 DQG LWV GLVDVWHU SUHSDUHGQHVV SURJUDPPH ',3(&+2 ZLWK ¼PLOOLRQLQUHVSRQVHWRQDWXUDOGLVDVWHUVDQG¼PLOOLRQIRU GLVDVWHUSUHSDUHGQHVV(&+2DOVRDVVLVWHGSRSXODWLRQVDIIHFWHG E\ÀRRGVLQZLWK¼PLOOLRQDQGFRQWULEXWHG¼LQ response to the malaria outbreak in 2012. Funding from the EU and its member states makes up a quarter RI WRWDO RI¿FLDO GHYHORSPHQW DVVLVWDQFH 2'$ ORDQV DQG JUDQWVWR/DR3'5ZLWK)UDQFH*HUPDQ\6ZHGHQ%HOJLXP and Luxembourg amongst the top EU donors. Japan is the largest bilateral donor to Lao PDR, providing around $100 million each \HDU LQ DVVLVWDQFH DQG JUDQWV PDLQO\ WR ¿QDQFH LQIUDVWUXFWXUH projects in the energy and transport sectors. Japanese ODA represents nearly half of total bilateral assistance given to the FRXQWU\&KLQDLVDIDVWJURZLQJHFRQRPLFSDUWQHUDQGLQYHVWRU accounting for around 15 per cent of total ODA to Lao PDR, mainly through involvement in major infrastructure projects including roads and dams. Australia, the Asian Development Bank (ADB), and the US are other important donors. 33 34 Trade between the EU and Lao PDR is small but not LQVLJQL¿FDQWLQUHODWLRQWRWKHVL]HRIWKHFRXQWU\¶VHFRQRP\ /DR3'5EHQH¿WVIURPWKH(8¶V(YHU\WKLQJ%XW$UPV(%$ scheme, which provides duty and quota free access for all Laotian products except arms and ammunitions. Bilateral WUDGHLQJRRGVUHDFKHG¼PLOOLRQLQKDYLQJPRUHWKDQ doubled since 2000. The EU was Lao PDR’s fourth-largest WUDGLQJ SDUWQHU LQ DIWHU 7KDLODQG &KLQD DQG 9LHWQDP with a share of 5.9 per cent of total external trade. Lao PDR’s PDLQWUDGLQJSDUWQHUVLQWKH(8DUH*HUPDQ\WKH8.)UDQFH Belgium, and the Netherlands. The EU imports mainly textiles and clothing and agricultural products from Lao PDR, while its exports consist largely of machinery goods. In recognition of the country’s potential, its strategic location in the heart RI ,QGR&KLQD DEXQGDQFH RI FKHDS ODERXU DQG LWV QHHG IRU HFRQRPLFJURZWKDQ(8&KDPEHURI&RPPHUFHDQG,QGXVWU\ (&&,/ ZDV HVWDEOLVKHG LQ 0D\ WR SURPRWH (XURSHDQ business in Lao PDR. In addition to trade preferences, the EU also provides critical trade-related assistance. The Union contributes amongst others to a Multi-Donor Trust Fund – the Trade Development Facility (TDF) – which supports the government in ongoing reforms, coordinating trade-related assistance, and facilitating cross-border trade. Political dialogue between the EU and Lao PDR takes place through a joint committee, which meets every two years at VHQLRURI¿FLDOV¶OHYHO7KHUHDUHWZRVXEVLGLDU\ZRUNLQJJURXSV addressing trade and human rights, respectively. Democracy promotion is a key priority for the EU in its relations with Lao PDR and the Union works with a number of international DQG ORFDO 1*2V RQ D YDULHW\ RI (8VXSSRUWHG KXPDQ ULJKWV LQLWLDWLYHV/DR3'5LVDVLQJOHSDUW\FRPPXQLVWVWDWHRI¿FLDOO\ espousing Marxism, with the Lao People’s Revolutionary Party (LPRP) as the only legal political party. While the country’s constitution safeguards basic human rights, serious violations by the government and a weak rule of law are important hurdles towards better political relations between the EU and Lao PDR. 7KH 3UHVLGHQW RI WKH (XURSHDQ &RXQFLO 9DQ 5RPSX\ DQG (XURSHDQ&RPPLVVLRQ3UHVLGHQW%DUURVRWUDYHOOHGWR9LHQWLDQH in 2012 for the Ninth ASEM Summit. During the visit, Van Rompuy met Laotian Prime Minister Thongsing Thammavong and reiterated the importance the EU attaches to human rights DQG GHPRFUDF\ LQ LWV UHODWLRQVKLS ZLWK /DR 3'5 &XOWXUH LV another important facet of bilateral relations. While the relationship with Vietnam is a cornerstone of Lao 3'5¶VIRUHLJQSROLF\JUHDWHUSROLWLFDOLQÀXHQFHIURP&KLQDDQG Lao PDR UHLQIRUFHG &KLQHVH HFRQRPLF FRRSHUDWLRQ ULVN KDPSHULQJ WKH country’s opening up to the international community and creating IUDFWXUHVZLWKLQ$6($1&KLQDUHLQIRUFHVWKHDWWUDFWLYHQHVVRI an economically successful authoritarian regime. The EU as a successful democratic entity and an economic powerhouse can help nurture democracy and strengthen the rule of law. Since 2009, civil society has been gradually emerging in the country, after a government decree approved the regulation and operation RI QRQSUR¿W DVVRFLDWLRQV 7KH JRYHUQPHQW KDV DOVR UHFHQWO\ UDWL¿HGWKH,QWHUQDWLRQDO&RQYHQWLRQDJDLQVW7RUWXUH7KHVHDUH welcome steps that the EU must encourage, while not appearing as hectoring on norms and human rights. At the same time, there is a need for Lao PDR to diversify its economic partners and progress on its path towards integration into the wider global economy. Supporting infrastructure development and helping Lao PDR to connect better to its ASEAN neighbours should be a priority. The EU must continue supporting ongoing economic reforms to help liberalise further the Laotian economy, strengthen public expenditure management, improve the banking system and the provision of UXUDO¿QDQFLDOVHUYLFHVFRQWLQXHWKHUHIRUPRIVPDOODQGPHGLXP VL]HHQWHUSULVHV60(VDQGHQJDJHLQIXUWKHUFRRSHUDWLRQRQ HQYLURQPHQWDOLVVXHV+HOSLQJUHLQIRUFH/DR3'5¶VFRPPLWPHQW to international engagement and regional integration could also pave the way to further political reform in the country. O 35 Malaysia EMILSTEFANOV / FLICKR Malaysia is today one of the most vibrant Asian economies and an important partner for the EU in ASEAN. Decades of industrial growth and socio-political stability have transformed Malaysia into an upper-middle income, newly industrialised country with D*'3SHUFDSLWDRIDURXQGWKHWKLUGKLJKHVWLQ ASEAN after Singapore and Brunei. Today, Malaysia is also the third-largest economy in ASEAN after Indonesia and Thailand and the 29th worldwide, at purchasing power parity. Malaysia’s population of nearly 29 million is relatively young, with an average age RI\HDUVDQDYHUDJHOLIHH[SHFWDQF\RI\HDUVDQGD 92.5 per cent literacy rate. Only 1.7 per cent lives below the poverty line (2012) and unemployment stands at 3.2 per cent. /HJDOO\ HVWDEOLVKHG XQGHU WKH (&$6($1 &RRSHUDWLRQ $JUHHPHQW(80DOD\VLDUHODWLRQVKDYHGHYHORSHGVLJQL¿FDQWO\ over the years from a development-oriented to a broad, multifaceted economic and political relationship. In October 2010, the EU and Malaysia launched negotiations for a bilateral Free 7UDGH $JUHHPHQW )7$ DQG D 3DUWQHUVKLS DQG &RRSHUDWLRQ $JUHHPHQW3&$:KLOHWKHIRUPHUDLPVDWERRVWLQJELODWHUDO trade and investment, the latter intends to enhance political relations and add a structured framework to overall political and economic cooperation. Malaysia Malaysia is the EU’s second-largest trading partner within $6($1DIWHU6LQJDSRUHDQGWKHWKJOREDOO\ZLWKDSHU FHQW VKDUH RI WKH (8¶V WRWDO H[WHUQDO WUDGH &RQYHUVHO\ WKH (8 LV 0DOD\VLD¶V IRXUWKODUJHVW WUDGLQJ SDUWQHU DIWHU &KLQD Singapore, and Japan, with a share of 9.5 per cent of Malaysia’s total external trade. Bilateral trade in goods amounted to almost €35 billion in 2012, with industrial products constituting 90 per cent of two-way trade and Malaysia recording a trade surplus of nearly €6 billion in the same year. Trade in services stands at around €5.6 billion (2011) but is gradually increasing with the establishment of national policies favouring liberalisation. The EU is the largest source of foreign direct investment (FDI) in Malaysia (2012), with €3.8 billion of LQYHVWPHQWVPDLQO\LQWKHPDQXIDFWXULQJVHFWRUVLJQL¿FDQWO\ ahead of other investors like Japan (€702 million) or Saudi Arabia (€652 million). EU FDI stock in Malaysia touched ¼ELOOLRQLQULVLQJQHDUO\WLPHVIURP¼ELOOLRQ LQMXVW¿YH\HDUV&XUUHQWO\WKHUHDUHPRUHWKDQ(XURpean companies operating in Malaysia. The envisaged FTA is important. An upper-middle income FRXQWU\DFFRUGLQJWRWKH:RUOG%DQNDVRI-DQXDU\0DOD\VLDLVQRORQJHUHOLJLEOHIRUWKH(8¶V*HQHUDOLVHG6FKHPH RI3UHIHUHQFHV*637KHVFKHPHSURYLGHGGXW\UHGXFWLRQV of up to 66 per cent for Malay exports to the EU. The FTA FDQ PLWLJDWH WKH VLJQL¿FDQW LPSDFW RI 0DOD\VLD¶V *63 GLVcontinuation and ensure that the EU and Malaysia once again EHQH¿W IURP GXW\IUHH DFFHVV WR HDFK RWKHU¶V PDUNHWV %RWK VLGHVKRSHWRFRQFOXGHWKH)7$E\WKHHQGRI Malaysia is one of the most open economies in the world. As a member of the World Trade Organisation (WTO), it is an active proponent of free trade and the multilateral trading V\VWHP,WLVDOVRDPHPEHURIWKH&DLUQV*URXSZKLFKDGvocates for greater liberalisation in global agriculture trade, DQGLVWKHZRUOG¶VODUJHVW,VODPLFEDQNLQJDQG¿QDQFHFHQWUH Once a leading producer and exporter of primary products like rubber and tin, Malaysia has successfully managed to diversify its economy. With an average growth of 6.5 per cent from 1957-2005, the country is today one of the world’s largest producers of electronics. It is the world’s second-largest exporter of palm oil and a regional leader in rubber, tin, oil, and gas exports. Malaysia’s industrialised market economy is guided by sound macro-economic policies like the Vision 2020, which aims to attain developed-economy status for the country by 2020. The initiative targets an eight-fold increase 37 RIUHDO*'3EHWZHHQDQGDQGDIRXUIROGLQFUHDVH in per capita income. This requires the government to maintain a 7 per cent average annual growth. 38 +RZHYHU WKH )7$ DOVR PDWWHUV IRU WKH (8 0DOD\VLD KDV DOready concluded and implemented bilateral FTAs with major regional partners like Australia, India, Japan, and New ZeaODQGDVZHOODV&KLOHDQG3DNLVWDQ,QDGGLWLRQLWEHQH¿WVIURP $6($1¶V)7$VZLWK$XVWUDOLD&KLQD,QGLD-DSDQ6RXWK.Rrea, and New Zealand. Malaysia is also a negotiating partner RI ERWK WKH 5HJLRQDO &RPSUHKHQVLYH (FRQRPLF 3DUWQHUVKLS 5&(3DQGWKH7UDQV3DFL¿F3DUWQHUVKLS733PDMRUSOXUL ODWHUDO)7$LQLWLDWLYHVLQWKH$VLD3DFL¿F$VSHHG\FRQFOXVLRQ of the EU-Malaysia FTA would open the door for more EU companies to enter one of the most vibrant and well-connected PDUNHWVLQ$VLD+RZHYHURI¿FLDOVQRWHWKDWWKHQHJRWLDWLRQV have so far lacked momentum. Key contentious issues include intellectual property rights (especially generic medicines), competition (Malaysian competition laws focus on anti-trust while EU competition laws also cover state-aid and mergers and acquisitions), automobiles, public procurement, and the palm oil sector. The latter is particularly sensitive since Malaysia is the world’s second-largest exporter of palm oil and the (8WKHVHFRQGODUJHVWLPSRUWHU+RZHYHU0DOD\VLDQSDOPRLO bio-fuel has been deemed not to meet the EU’s sustainability FULWHULD0DOD\VLDQ1*2VDQGFLYLOVRFLHW\WRRKDYHRSSRVHG an increase in palm-oil exports in the interest of the environment and indigenous land rights, while the government looks to raise production to increase export revenues. Malaysia is also uneasy with EU demands to change national laws especially as regards intellectual property and geographical indications under which the EU has 3,000 protected products. At the political level, the EU and Malaysia meet within the IUDPHZRUNRIDQDQQXDOVHQLRURI¿FLDOV¶PHHWLQJDVZHOODV DPHPEHU,QWHU3DUOLDPHQWDU\0DOD\VLD(8&DXFXV(GXcation and research, security, infrastructure, environment, climate change, and communication technology are among the priorities of the partnership. EU-Malaysia ‘green’ coopHUDWLRQLVVLJQL¿FDQWO\ZLGHVFRSHGDQGWDNHVSODFHXQGHUWKH IUDPHZRUNRID*UHHQ7HFKQRORJ\DQG&OLPDWH&KDQJH3ROicy Dialogue. The EU also supports a number of projects on sustainable development and forestry and has provided development aid to Malaysia for around €17 million (2007–13) XQGHULWV'HYHORSPHQW&RRSHUDWLRQ,QVWUXPHQW'&,(8DLG XQGHU WKH (XURSHDQ ,QVWUXPHQW IRU 'HPRFUDF\ DQG +XPDQ 5LJKWV(,'+5DPRXQWLQJWRQHDUO\¼±LV directed towards civil society and support for human rights. Malaysia Malaysia sees itself as a bridge between the EU and ASEAN. +RZHYHULWIHHOVWKDWLQVSLWHRIORQJVWDQGLQJUHODWLRQVWKH EU has still not fully acknowledged the importance of its partnership with ASEAN even as the regional body has an expanding list of 10 key dialogue partners including AustraOLD&DQDGD&KLQD,QGLD-DSDQ1HZ=HDODQG6RXWK.RUHD Russia, the UN, and the US. Bilaterally, Malaysia feels that the donor-recipient paradigm remains prevalent in the relationship with the EU and that an upgrade is in order, not least given the growing importance attached by the EU to relations ZLWK&KLQDvis-à-vis other Asian partners. The EU’s emphasis on democracy and other values-based clauses in bilateral negotiations is also questioned in Kuala Lumpur. The EU and Malaysia share similar security interests and are also gradually establishing cooperation on maritime security and &%51LVVXHV*LYHQWKHIUHTXHQF\RIQDWXUDOGLVDVWHUVLQ0DOD\sia, disaster preparedness is a key area for cooperation. Malaysia LVSDUW\WRWKH6RXWK&KLQD6HDWHUULWRULDOGLVSXWHDQGVHHNVSRlitical support from the EU on calling for a peaceful resolution based on the rule of law and the ASEAN-proposed regional code RIFRQGXFW:KLOHWKH(80DOD\VLDUHODWLRQVKLSKDVPDGHVLJQL¿cant progress on commercial and economic issues, there is scope to foster political cooperation between the two parties. O 39 EGUIDE TRAVEL / FLICKR Myanmar The EU-Myanmar relationship stands out as a prime example of the EU’s political engagement in Asia. It has also become an important dimension of the EU’s relationship with ASEAN. For over two decades, the EU applied incremental, targeted sanctions against Myanmar’s authoritarian regime. With likeminded partners, the EU (and the US) led international efforts to isolate the country so as to pressure the regime and induce change. This policy represents one of its most elaborate and coordinated attempts at democracy promotion in a third country. On top of an arms embargo, trade measures, targeted travel bans DQGDVVHWIUHH]HVWKH(8DQGLWVPHPEHUVWDWHVH[WHQGHGVXSSRUW to the local civil society and expatriate community. EU and various member state leaders also raised on several occasions the issue of Myanmar in bilateral dialogues and summits with most of the country’s neighbours and with ASEAN. The weight of the EU was felt most strongly within international bodies like the UN and its agencies, where international aid to Myanmar ZDV VXFFHVVIXOO\ EORFNHG 0\DQPDU UHFHLYHG LQWHUQDWLRQDO development assistance as low as $6 per capita in comparison WRWKDWZHQWWR9LHWQDPWR&DPERGLDDQGWR/DR 3'5 +RZHYHU WKH (8 GRYHWDLOHG LWV SROLFLHV ZLWK OLPLWHG humanitarian aid and development assistance in key selected VHFWRUVKHDOWKHGXFDWLRQDQGUHIXJHHV Myanmar Stalemate between Brussels and Nyapidaw limited cooperation between the EU and ASEAN between 1997 and 2010. A number of important meetings were boycotted. EU-ASEAN foreign ministers’ meetings did not take place for many years, while ASEAN refused to attend the 2005 ASEM Economic Ministers’ Meeting in Rotterdam because the Netherlands had refused to SURYLGHYLVDVWR0\DQPDURI¿FLDOV,QWKH(8FRQVLGHUHG lack of democratic progress in Myanmar as a prime reason to abandon region-to-region Free Trade Agreement (FTA) negotiations with ASEAN, which had began in 2007. While not negligible, pressure from the EU, the US and others has not been the decisive factor triggering the recent political transition in the country. More important has been the sustained policy of engagement pursued by ASEAN and other regional SDUWQHUVVKRZLQJ0\DQPDU¶VOHDGHUVKLSWKHEHQH¿WVRIHFRQRPLF and political reform, and the initiative of Myanmar’s President Thein Sein. After the unprecedented and rapid political changes WKDWWRRNSODFHLQHQGLQJ\HDUVRIUHSUHVVLYHPLOLWDU\UXOH Myanmar rose dramatically onto the international agenda. The military junta was dissolved with the establishment of a nominally FLYLOLDQJRYHUQPHQWIROORZLQJWKHJHQHUDOHOHFWLRQVDQHZ FRQVWLWXWLRQZDVDSSURYHGE\UHIHUHQGXPLQWHUQDWLRQDOGHPRFUDF\ icon Aung San Suu Kyi was released from house arrest after two GHFDGHVWKH1DWLRQDO/HDJXHIRU'HPRFUDF\1/'ZDVDOORZHG WR UHJLVWHU DV D SROLWLFDO SDUW\ KXQGUHGV RI SROLWLFDO SULVRQHUV ZHUHIUHHGQHZODERXUODZVSHUPLWWHGWKHIRUPDWLRQRIXQLRQV SHUPLVVLRQ IRU SHDFHIXO GHPRQVWUDWLRQV ZDV JUDQWHG DQG WKH government set out to build peace with rebels and armed ethnic JURXSVE\VLJQLQJDQXPEHURIFHDVH¿UHDJUHHPHQWV$VHULHVRI HFRQRPLFUHIRUPVZHUHDOVRLQLWLDWHGPDQDJHGÀRDWLQJH[FKDQJH rate system, revision of national banking laws, improvements WR WKH SD\PHQW V\VWHP SURPRWLRQ RI ¿QDQFLDO VHFWRU FDSDFLW\ EXLOGLQJDQGXSJUDGHVWRWKHQDWLRQDOEXGJHWDQG¿VFDOV\VWHP amongst others. The pace of reform and political opening stunned the world and the EU, which, like most Western nations, observed with cautious optimism. Acknowledging the top-down political revolution in the making, the EU suspended sanctions in April 2012, with the exception of WKHDUPVHPEDUJRZKLFKLWZLOOPDLQWDLQXQWLO$SULODQG in July of 2013 it reinstated Myanmar within the Everything But Arms (EBA) scheme. All this followed the 2012 by-elections (to which the EU sent an observer mission) that saw Aung San 6XX .\L¶V SDUW\ WKH 1DWLRQDO /HDJXH IRU 'HPRFUDF\ ZLQ RIYDFDQWVHDWVLQWKHPHPEHUSDUOLDPHQW7KH(8KDV 41 It is now essential for the EU to follow a medium- to longterm comprehensive strategy of engagement and accompany the country’s rehabilitation into the 21st century. The EU is an important player in Myanmar. Its humanitarian aid has been EHQH¿FLDO¼PLOOLRQVLQFHDQGWKH8QLRQLVWKHODUJHVW donor to peace-related projects in the country. For example, WKH (8 KDV DGYDQFHG ¼ WR WKH 0\DQPDU 3HDFH &HQWUH DQG LV KHOSLQJ WKH JRYHUQPHQW HVWDEOLVK D 1DWLRQDO &ULVLV 5HVSRQVH&HQWUH7KURXJKRXWWKH\HDUVRIUHSUHVVLYHUXOHE\WKH military junta, European governments’ main focus had been on democratisation, human rights, peace and national reconciliation, as well as inter-communal relations. and towards the Rohingya Muslim community. EU diplomats are keen on EU support to ethnic peace efforts (a fraction of the Union’s 2012–13 aid package is budgeted for peace processes), but ethnic and communal peace processes can ultimately be only internally-led and based on the political will of the parties involved – the leadership, the rebels, and religious groups. The vast body of political and economic reforms that the country will need to implement will require technical expertise from partners like the EU. Through its Instrument for Stability (IfS), the EU is currently supporting police reform in Myanmar with a €10 million package in the areas of crowd management and community policing. The EU’s offer of a €200 million development aid package (mainly to the health, education, and refugee sectors) needs to be seen as part of a broader engagement. At the end RI DQ (80\DQPDU7DVN )RUFH WKH ¿UVW RI LWV NLQG IRU the EU in Asia), with the participation of 100 entrepreneurs and representatives of business associations, political, development DQGHFRQRPLF¿JXUHVDVZHOODVFLYLOVRFLHW\JURXSVDQG1*2V was set up as a forum for debate on Myanmar’s challenges and opportunities as well as the EU’s contribution. The EU does well in pressuring the country to solve communal and ethnic violence, especially in the Rakhine and Kachin states Recent developments in the country beseech complementing support to political reforms with stronger economic engagement. since reached out intensively to Myanmar. The surge of visits RIKLJKOHYHORI¿FLDOVIURPERWKWKH(8LQFOXGLQJYDULRXV(8 commissioners) and member states has been impressive. During WKH¿UVWYLVLWRI+LJK5HSUHVHQWDWLYH&DWKHULQH$VKWRQLQ$SULO 2012, the EU Delegation was inaugurated in Yangon while the HVWDEOLVKPHQWRID3HDFH&HQWUHZDVDQQRXQFHGGXULQJ(XURSHDQ &RPPLVVLRQ3UHVLGHQW%DUURVR¶VYLVLWLQ1RYHPEHU 42 Myanmar The EU can bring real added value to the outpouring of international assistance to the country by engaging in areas like FDSDFLW\EXLOGLQJ SURYLGLQJ WHFKQLFDO H[SHUWLVH IRU OHJDO DQG FRQVWLWXWLRQDOUHIRUPDQGIRUWKH¿QDQFLDODQGEDQNLQJVHFWRUV IDFLOLWDWLQJ WHFKQRORJ\ WUDQVIHU VXSSRUWLQJ 0\DQPDU LQ LWV LQWHUQDWLRQDOFRPPLWPHQWVOLNHLWV&KDLUPDQVKLSRI$6($1DQG $6(0LQGHYHORSLQJWKHFRXQWU\¶VGLVDVWHUPDQDJHPHQW FDSDFLW\ WDUJHWLQJ WKH HQKDQFHPHQW RI (80\DQPDU WUDGH UHODWLRQV ZKLFK FDQ GLUHFWO\ HPSRZHU ORFDO FRPPXQLWLHV DQG boosting people-to-people contacts. The country’s infrastructure too needs a massive overhaul, as only a quarter of the population has access to electricity. The banking sector is another area for collaboration since improvement of access to credit is a key priority for the government. During 2000–10, Myanmar’s economy grew at an annual average of 12 per cent. According to 0FNLQVH\*URXS0\DQPDU¶V*'3KDVWKHSRWHQWLDOWRTXDGUXSOH by 2030, provided that the political and business environment FRQWLQXHV WR LPSURYH 7UDQVSDUHQF\ LV DQ LPSRUWDQW ¿HOG LQ D country deeply affected by corruption. Myanmar ranked 157th RI FRXQWULHV RQ )UHHGRP +RXVH¶V &RUUXSWLRQ 3HUFHSWLRQ Index in 2012. Other initiatives might include a judicial training programme and supporting the reintegration of the half millionstrong Tatmadaw (the armed forces), with a special focus on child soldiers. Engaging on non-traditional security, especially curbing the drugs trade, is crucial. Myanmar is the secondlargest global producer of opium and an important source of illegal drugs, in particular amphetamines. In short, bilateral EU-Myanmar relations need to focus on the institutionalisation of political and economic reforms, bilateral trade and investment, and rapid urbanisation. Weaving normative end-goals into practical economic and political collaboration, as well as technical assistance, will help strengthen Myanmar’s civil society and the institutional capacity of a government that is just now learning how to manage and distribute national public goods. A foreign investment law that ensures a stable and predictable environment for external investors has been passed E\ SDUOLDPHQW DQG D ODZ RQ VSHFLDO HFRQRPLF ]RQHV LV EHLQJ overhauled. For Myanmar, engaging with the West represents a VWUDWHJLFJDWHZD\WREDODQFHPRXQWLQJSUHVVXUHVIURP&KLQDDQG India, as well as a fast-track to development to catch up with the rest of Asia. O 43 Philippines OBRA 19 / CREATIVE COMMONS ,QWKH(8DQGWKH3KLOLSSLQHVFHOHEUDWHKDOIDFHQWXU\RI bilateral relations. The relationship was initially developmentRULHQWHG WKH 3KLOLSSLQHV(& )UDPHZRUN $JUHHPHQW IRU 'HYHORSPHQW &RRSHUDWLRQ SURYLGHG WKH EDVLV IRU (& DVVLVWHG GHYHORSPHQW SURMHFWV LQ WKH FRXQWU\ +RZHYHU DV the Philippines is not only experiencing greater economic GHYHORSPHQW EXW DOVR ¿QGV LWVHOI LQ WKH PLGVW RI D JOREDO VHFXULW\KRWVSRWIDFLQJDULVLQJ&KLQDWKHFRQWHQWDQGFRQWH[W of EU-Philippines relations is set to change. Bilaterally, the EU and the Philippines meet in the framework of a VHQLRURI¿FLDOV¶PHHWLQJKHOGRQDYHUDJHHYHU\WZRRUWKUHH\HDUV which takes stock of the entire spectrum of bilateral relations (and ASEAN issues). The absence of an institutionalised ministerial meeting is being increasingly felt as relations have expanded. In WKH3KLOLSSLQHV¶IRUHLJQPLQLVWHUDQG(8+LJK5HSUHVHQWDWLYH &DWKHULQH$VKWRQ PHW RI¿FLDOO\ IRU WKH ¿UVW WLPH7KH WZR VLGHVVLJQHGD3DUWQHUVKLSDQG&RRSHUDWLRQ$JUHHPHQW3&$RQ 11 July 2012 in Phnom Penh on the sidelines of the ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF), which will provide a better architecture to bilateral relations, increase dialogue and set a more regular timeWDEOHIRUPHHWLQJV7KH3&$DOVREULQJVDERXWQHZLQVWLWXWLRQDO mechanisms, including a joint consultative committee. Philippines The EU has been an important partner in the Philippines’ development efforts, working closely on poverty reduction, the health sector, good governance, and democracy. Since relations began, the EU has contributed more than €1 billion in grants to projects assisting poverty reduction and raising living standards, while the European Investment Bank has provided an additional ¼ELOOLRQLQORDQV7KH(8¶V&RXQWU\6WUDWHJ\3DSHUIRUWKH 3KLOLSSLQHV±ZLWKD¿QDQFLDODOORFDWLRQRI¼PLOOLRQ highlighted four key areas for cooperation, namely improvement in the delivery of and access to basic social services, particularly KHDOWK VHUYLFHV HQKDQFHPHQW RI WUDGH DQG LQYHVWPHQWV ÀRZV SURPRWLRQRIJRRGJRYHUQDQFHDQGUHIRUPVDQGUHVWRULQJSHDFH and security in Mindanao. As regards the country’s Development 3ODQ±WKH(8ZLOOGHOLYHUDQDQQXDOVXPRIDURXQG¼ million in grant funding in particular to support the Filipino 8QLYHUVDO+HDOWK&DUHSROLF\ZKLFKH[WHQGVIUHHKHDOWKFDUHWR the poorest segments of society. The EU has also been instrumental in reinforcing democracy and good governance in the Philippines, by assisting the improvement of the legislative system, as well as progress on the accountability and transparency of political activity. The (8IXQGHGSURMHFWVVXFKDVWKHµ+HDOLQJ'HPRFUDF\¶LQLWLDWLYH which helped prevent further inter-clan clashes in Mindanao Island in the aftermath of the 2009 clashes and the subsequent declaration of a state of emergency, and supported the monitoring of the May 2010 elections. The EU-Philippines Justice Support Programme promoted judicial reforms, including better access to the justice system for the poor, and speeding up the trial of extrajudicial killings and enforced disappearance cases. A number RI RWKHU SULRULW\ SURJUDPPHV VXSSRUW WKH *RRG *RYHUQDQFH Agenda of President Aquino, trade integration, and employment programmes. The EU’s engagement with Filipino civil society has addressed a wide spectrum of issues, ranging from social questions, the environment, human rights, migration, and the rights of indigenous people. The EU’s role in supporting the peace process and the development of local communities in Mindanao has been noteworthy in that LW RYHUVDZ WKH +XPDQLWDULDQ 'HYHORSPHQW DQG 5HKDELOLWDWLRQ component of the International Monitoring Team (headed by Malaysia and involving Brunei, Indonesia, Japan, Norway, and the EU), distributing more than €150 million since the 1990s. Mindanao, the agricultural basin of the Filipino archipelago and its second-largest island, was affected by separatist movements led by the Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF) riding on 45 VLJQL¿FDQW HFRQRPLF GLVSDULWLHV DQG UHOLJLRXV GLIIHUHQFHV &ODVKHVEHWZHHQ0,/)IRUFHVDQGWKH3KLOLSSLQHV¶DUP\FDXVHG more than 100,000 deaths while nearly half a million were displaced. In 2013, the government agreed to a wealth sharing deal with the MILF. 46 The EU is also one of the most important sources of humanitarian and emergency aid to the Philippines. EU support has covered D QXPEHU RI SURMHFWV LQ WKH ¿HOG RI UHKDELOLWDWLRQ DQG GLVDVWHU preparedness. In 2011 alone, 19 large tropical storms hit the DUFKLSHODJR $IWHU WKH +DL\DQ VWRUP LQ 1RYHPEHU WKH EU responded with around €20 million in humanitarian aid and reconstruction assistance, in addition to €25 million from EU PHPEHU VWDWHV 6LQFH (&+2 KDV GLVWULEXWHG RYHU ¼ million to the Philippines to cope with natural disasters and €21 PLOOLRQWRDVVLVWWKHYLFWLPVRIDUPHGFRQÀLFWV(&+2DOVRIXQGV projects to build resilience within local communities. The EU has been particularly active in Mindanao, where it has provided more than €35 million in humanitarian aid for natural and manmade disasters to assist victims. Trade is an important component of the EU-Philippines relationship. Bilateral trade slowed down following the crisis in 2008 but has picked up since, standing at nearly €10 billion in 2012 (goods), while trade in services was €2.1 billion in 2011. 7KH3KLOLSSLQHVLVWKH(8¶VWKODUJHVWWUDGLQJSDUWQHULQWKH world, with a 0.3 per cent share of the EU’s total external trade, and the sixth-largest trading partner for the EU in ASEAN. &RQYHUVHO\ WKH 8QLRQ LV WKH FRXQWU\¶V IRXUWKODUJHVW WUDGLQJ SDUWQHUDIWHU-DSDQWKH86DQG&KLQDZLWKDSHUFHQWVKDUH of the Filipino external trade. In December 2013, the Philippines DSSOLHG WR WKH (8¶V QHZ UHLQIRUFHG *HQHUDOLVHG 6FKHPH RI 3UHIHUHQFHV *63 3OXV1 This could increase Filipino exports to the EU by €611 million. At the same time, both partners DUHOLNHO\WREHJLQQHJRWLDWLRQVRQD)7$LQWKH¿UVWTXDUWHURI )RUWKH3KLOLSSLQHVZRUNHUV¶PRELOLW\LVVXHVZLOOEHNH\ Manila would also like to increase trade with the EU on offshore services. The EU is the largest investor in the Philippines. In 2011, the EU’s foreign direct investment (FDI) stock stood at €7.6 billion (28 per cent of total FDI stock in the Philippines). Total Philippine FDI stock in the EU stands at around €1.7 billion (2010). The EU is also the second-largest source of remittances for the Philippines – €2 billion in 2012. & I]Z<HEEajh^hVXdbedcZcid[i]Z:J¼h<ZcZgVa^hZYHX]ZbZd[EgZ[ZgZcXZhi]Vid[[ZghVYY^i^dcVa igVYZ^cXZci^kZhidYZkZade^c\Xdjcig^ZhVagZVYnWZcZÃii^c\[gdb<HEid^beaZbZciXdgZ^ciZgcVi^dcVaXdckZci^dchdc]jbVcVcYaVWdjgg^\]ih!hjhiV^cVWaZYZkZadebZciVcY\ddY\dkZgcVcXZ# Philippines Three key priority areas stand out for the EU-Philippines UHODWLRQVKLSQDPHO\HQJDJHPHQWLQWKH6RXWK(DVW$VLDQUHJLRQ development, and disaster relief including climate change. EUPhilippines cooperation extends to traditional and non-traditional security issues, climate change, maritime issues, human rights and other political dossiers on top of EU support for democracy and good governance. The EU and the Philippines consult closely on counter-terrorism, especially regarding terrorist groups in the VRXWKRIWKHFRXQWU\WUDI¿FNLQJKXPDQVGUXJVDQGZHDSRQV DQG &KHPLFDO %LRORJLFDO 5DGLRORJLFDO DQG 1XFOHDU &%51 LVVXHV 7KH (8 KDV UHFHQWO\ HVWDEOLVKHG D &%51 &HQWUH RI Excellence South-East Asia Regional Secretariat in Malacañang, in the Philippines, to boost the capacity of countries in the region to respond to threats and help build a common risk mitigation policy at the national and regional levels. In the past few years, the Philippines has been drawn to the centre of the Asian political landscape given frequent skirmishes with &KLQDLQWKH6RXWK&KLQD6HDHVSHFLDOO\RYHUWKH6SUDWO\,VODQGV and its increased engagement with the US. The US and the Philippines have a mutual defence treaty, signed in 1951 and which was renewed during a landmark visit by former US Secretary of 6WDWH+LOODU\&OLQWRQLQ1RYHPEHU7KH86LVDOVRERRVWLQJ its military assistance to the Philippines with $50 million in aid and more navy vessels, and by helping the country modernise its military. An agreement between both sides is envisaged which would provide a framework for semi-permanent ‘rotational’ stationing of US troops and military assets in the country. Recently, the Philippines has initiated arbitral proceedings in RUGHU WR GHWHUPLQH WKH OHJDO DSSOLFDWLRQ RI 81&/26 8QLWHG 1DWLRQV&RQYHQWLRQRQWKH/DZRIWKH6HDWRWKHGLVSXWHGDUHDV RI WKH 6RXWK &KLQD 6HD:HVW 3KLOLSSLQH 6HD *UHDWHU SROLWLFDO engagement with countries in the region, especially disputant states, will be important. The Philippines seeks EU support to HQFRXUDJH &KLQD WR SDUWLFLSDWH LQ WKH DUELWUDO SURFHHGLQJV DQG to persuade all claimant states to respect the rule of law and to ¿QGSHDFHIXODQGFRRSHUDWLYHVROXWLRQV7KLVLVDOVRLQWKHLQWHUHVW of the EU. While the EU and the Philippines have developed a strong relationship since the country’s independence, the golden DQQLYHUVDU\RIELODWHUDOUHODWLRQVLQSURYLGHVWKHWZRSDUWLHV with an opportunity to strengthen their political engagement. O 47 Singapore MARTIN ABEGGLEN / FLICKR $V D JOREDO ¿QDQFLDO DQG EXVLQHVV KXE WKH PLFUR LVODQG nation of Singapore has developed into a virtual springboard LQWR WKH YDVW RSSRUWXQLWLHV RIIHUHG E\ D ULVLQJ$VLD +DYLQJ successfully weathered the global meltdown, the country today stands in good stead as a stable economy that encourages LQQRYDWLRQ DQG DV D ZHOOFRQQHFWHG ¿QDQFLDO FHQWUH$V WKH country with the largest number of Free Trade Agreements (FTAs) (either proposed, under negotiations, or signed) in Asia, Singapore champions the notion of free trade and free markets. Beyond economic stability and trade, Singapore punches well above its weight in international politics. ASEAN is a cornerstone of its foreign policy and Singapore is very much involved in most of Asia’s regional frameworks. The Asia3DFL¿F (FRQRPLF &RRSHUDWLRQ $3(& 6HFUHWDULDW LV EDVHG in Singapore and the country hosts the annual ShangriLa Dialogue, a leading security conference. In addition, Singapore is a member and active participant in a series of international fora. In 2007–13, it contributed personnel to the NATO International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) in Afghanistan and it holds an observer status in the Arctic &RXQFLO 7KH FRXQWU\ SXUVXHV D SROLF\ RI FRQVWUXFWLYH Singapore engagement with all states and institutions. Its foreign policy LV DFXWHO\ SUDJPDWLF DQG ZKLOH LW PD\ HQJDJH &KLQD RQ economic, political and cultural grounds, it hedges it all the same by allowing the US military to use its Sembawang and Paya Lebar bases. EU-Singapore relations are largely well-functioning and EHUHIW RI PDMRU FRQWURYHUVLHV 7KH\ ¿QG WKHLU OHJDO EDVLV LQ WKH (&$6($1 &RRSHUDWLRQ $JUHHPHQW 7UDGH and investment have been the overarching dimension of bilateral relations and the economic compact has developed satisfactorily. Bilateral merchandise trade stood at €51.8 billion in 2012, registering a 12 per cent growth from the SUHYLRXV\HDUDQGDSHUFHQWULVHEHWZHHQDQG despite the economic slowdown in Europe. Singapore is the (8¶VWKODUJHVWWUDGLQJSDUWQHUEHDULQJDSHUFHQWVKDUH of the EU’s total external trade. Meanwhile, the EU ranked as Singapore’s second-largest trading partner behind Malaysia DQGFXWDSHUFHQWVKDUHRIWKHFRXQWU\¶VH[WHUQDOWUDGH SLH+RZHYHU6LQJDSRUHLVWKH(8¶VVHYHQWKODUJHVWWUDGLQJ partner in commercial services worldwide. Trade in services stood at €27.6 billion in 2011, around half of the merchandise trade for that year, and includes principally transport services, business and management services, and royalties. Singapore is the EU’s top trading partner within ASEAN, accounting for a third of total EU-ASEAN trade in goods and half of (8$6($1WUDGHLQVHUYLFHV,WLVDOVRWKH(8¶V¿IWKODUJHVW trading partner in Asia after four of the Union’s so-called VWUDWHJLFSDUWQHUV&KLQD,QGLD-DSDQDQG6RXWK.RUHD Investment too is a key component of the EU-Singapore UHODWLRQVKLS7KH(FRQRPLVW,QWHOOLJHQFH8QLW&RXQWU\ Forecast Report ranks the city-nation ‘as the most attractive investment location both regionally and globally’. Total EUSingapore bilateral foreign direct investment (FDI) stock is around €190 billion. The EU is the largest investor in Singapore, with 27.3 per cent of total FDI stock, compared to 10.6 per cent for the US and 8.7 per cent for Japan. Singapore LV WKH ¿IWKODUJHVW LQYHVWRU LQ WKH (8 VHFRQG ODUJHVW IURP Asia behind Japan, and the largest from ASEAN. Singapore DOVRDFFRXQWVIRUWKHYDVWPDMRULW\RI)',LQÀRZVLQWRWKH(8 from the region – €11 billion in 2011 out of an ASEAN total of €12 billion. The ease of doing business with Singapore is apparent from the more than 9,000 European companies present in the 49 50 country. The World Bank’s 2012 Doing Business Report deems Singapore to have the most favourable regulatory and institutional environment in the world for conducting EXVLQHVV&RUUXSWLRQOHYHOVLQWKHFRXQWU\DUHYHU\ORZWKH ,0'&RPSHWLWLYHQHVV,QGH[<HDUERRNUDQNV6LQJDSRUH as the least corrupt country in Asia. The same report rated the country as number one in Asia and seventh worldwide in terms of intellectual property rights protection. In addition, Singapore boasts of high labour protection and businessconducive labour regulations. 6LQJDSRUH ZDV WKH ¿UVW $6($1 PHPEHU FRXQWU\ WR EHJLQ bilateral FTA talks with the EU when the Union decided to discontinue ASEAN-EU region-to-region FTA negotiations. The EU and Singapore signed a comprehensive FTA on 20 September 2013 after negotiations were launched in March 7KH(XURSHDQ&RPPLVVLRQHVWLPDWHVWKDWWKHDJUHHPHQW ZRXOG VLJQL¿FDQWO\ ERRVW ELODWHUDO WUDGH DGGLQJ QHDUO\ €1.5 billion to EU exports to Singapore and €3.5 billion to Singapore’s exports to the EU in the next decade). This FTA has set the level of ambition for EU free trade negotiations with other ASEAN member countries and the eventual regionWRUHJLRQ)7$7KH(86LQJDSRUH)7$LVDOVRWKH¿UVWLQVWDQFH that Singapore has recognised geographical indications,1 a controversial issue with the EU’s other negotiating partners. Beyond commercial ties, the EU and Singapore share a growing political relationship. On 31 May 2013, both sides concluded QHJRWLDWLRQV RQ D 3DUWQHUVKLS DQG &RRSHUDWLRQ $JUHHPHQW 3&$WKDWLVWRVHWDFRPSUHKHQVLYHIUDPHZRUNIRUELODWHUDO UHODWLRQV DQG GHYHORS FRRSHUDWLRQ LQ WKH ¿HOGV RI VHFXULW\ energy, transport, services, science and technology, trade, and people-to-people contacts. Bilateral visits have recently picked XS(8+LJK5HSUHVHQWDWLYH&DWKHULQH$VKWRQYLVLWHG6LQJDSRUH in May 2013, when she attended the Shangri-La Dialogue and met Foreign Minister K. Shanmugam. Shanmugam in turn visited Brussels in September 2013. While relations have progressed smoothly, the few hurdles in bilateral relations relate mainly to human rights issues, in particular the employment of capital punishment in Singapore, PHGLDIUHHGRPDQGJD\ULJKWV6LQJDSRUHUDQNHGth in the 2013 Reporters without Borders’ World Press Freedom Report. & 6\Zd\gVe]^XVa^cY^XVi^dc^hVY^hi^cXi^kZh^\cjhZYid^YZci^[nVegdYjXiVhdg^\^cVi^c\^ci]ZiZgg^idgnd[VeVgi^XjaVgXdjcign!gZ\^dcdgadXVa^in!l]ZgZ^ihfjVa^in!gZejiVi^dcdgdi]ZgX]VgVXiZg^hi^X ^ha^c`ZYid^ih\Zd\gVe]^XVadg^\^c# Singapore EU-Singapore relations hold much promise not least when VHW LQ WKH ZLGHU SDUDGLJP RI (8$6($1 UHODWLRQV *LYHQ Singapore’s geostrategic location in the midst of the Straits of Malacca, dialogue on maritime security and safety, as well as navigation, can take a more prominent place in bilateral talks. The changing geopolitics of the East Asian region, in particular WKH86UHEDODQFHWRZDUGV$VLDDQGWKHULVHRI&KLQDEHFNRQVD greater collaboration between the EU and like-minded partners such as Singapore. The EU and Singapore also share the same concerns about the LOOHIIHFWVRIFOLPDWHFKDQJH&RRSHUDWLRQRQGHYHORSLQJJUHHQ urban technologies as well as renewable energies could become one of the key facets of an innovation partnership between the two parties. The EU and Singapore have a long-standing cooperation in research and innovation, which could be further developed. Finally, as actors in international development, the EU and Singapore could explore a development partnership focusing on ASEAN’s least developed countries. O 51 Thailand DAVID BERKOWITZ / FLICKR Thailand is the only South-East Asian country to have escaped colonisation. EU-Thai relations are relatively recent DQG XQVFDUUHG E\ KLVWRU\ ¿QGLQJ WKHLU OHJDO EDVLV LQ WKH (&$6($1 &RRSHUDWLRQ $JUHHPHQW %LODWHUDO WLHV have grown progressively despite frequent roadblocks due to political instability and military coups in Thailand. The UHFHQWO\FRQFOXGHG(87KDLODQG3DUWQHUVKLSDQG&RRSHUDWLRQ $JUHHPHQW 3&$ VLJQHG RQ )HEUXDU\ RIIHUV D stronger framework for political and economic relations and a platform to adapt better the partnership to current global challenges and shared political ambitions. Labelled by the World Bank as ‘one of the great development success stories’, Thailand is an export-oriented newly industrialised country. It is ASEAN’s second-largest economy after Indonesia and the fourth-richest country after Singapore, Brunei, and Malaysia. Thailand ranks second after Singapore in terms of external trade volume and foreign reserves. It recorded the world’s highest growth rate from 1985 to 1996, averaging SHUFHQWDQQXDOO\EHIRUHWKHFROODSVHRIWKH7KDLFXUUHQF\ WULJJHUHG WKH $VLDQ ¿QDQFLDO FULVLV $IWHU \HDUV RI SROLWLFDO instability and the destabilising effects of the 2008 international ¿QDQFLDODQG(XURSHDQGHEWFULVHVWKH7KDLHFRQRP\JUHZ Thailand per cent in 2013. Nonetheless, Thailand’s unemployment rate RI MXVW SHU FHQW ¿UVW TXDUWHU LV WKH IRXUWK ORZHVW JOREDOO\DIWHU&DPERGLD0RQDFRDQG4DWDU7KDLODQGDOVR has an impressive record in terms of poverty reduction, with more than 50 per cent Thais having crossed above the poverty line in just two decades. The EU-Thailand partnership is well-developed across political, economic, environmental, development, and socio-cultural issues. Trade is an important component of bilateral relations. Thailand is a trading nation with exports accounting for more WKDQWZRWKLUGVRILWV*'3,WLVWKHZRUOG¶VODUJHVWSURGXFHUDQG exporter of hard disk drives and rubber, the largest rice exporter and second largest of sugar. Thailand is the EU’s third-largest trading partner in ASEAN after Singapore and Malaysia. In 2012, bilateral merchandise trade amounted to €32.3 billion, ZKLOHVHUYLFHVWUDGH¿JXUHVIRUDPRXQWHGWR¼ELOOLRQ ZLWKDGH¿FLWIRUWKH(87KH8QLRQLV7KDLODQG¶VWKLUGODUJHVW WUDGLQJSDUWQHUDIWHU-DSDQDQG&KLQDZLWKDQSHUFHQWVKDUH of Thailand’s total external trade. Thailand is the EU’s 25th largest trading partner, with a 0.9 per cent share of the EU’s H[WHUQDOWUDGHSLH$VRI-DQXDU\7KDLODQGORVWSUHIHUHQWLDO DFFHVVWRWKH(8¶VPDUNHWXQGHUWKH(8¶V*HQHUDOLVHG6FKHPH RI3UHIHUHQFHV*63IRUDQXPEHURIH[SRUWV7KHVHLQFOXGH PHDW¿VKSHDUOVDQGSUHFLRXVPHWDOVDQGSUHSDUHGIRRGVWXIIV *LYHQ 7KDLODQG¶V JURZLQJ OHYHO RI *'3 SHU FDSLWD DV RI January 2015 the EU will rescind preferential access to Thai exports and will subject Thai shipments to the EU to most IDYRXUHG QDWLRQ 0)1 WDULII UDWHV 7KH ¿QDQFLDO LPSDFW IRU 7KDLODQGLVH[SHFWHGWREHVLJQL¿FDQW Thailand is also an important destination for EU investments, with European foreign direct investment (FDI) stocks worth ¼ELOOLRQ7KH(8LVWKHWKLUGODUJHVWVWRFNLQYHVWRU in Thailand, after Japan and the US. In March 2013, the EU and Thailand started negotiations on an Free Trade Agreement (FTA), the fourth round of which is scheduled to take place in 0DUFKLQ%DQJNRN7KH)7$H[SHFWHGWREHFRPSOHWHG within an 18-month provisional deadline, could offset the negative effects of the EU’s withdrawal of Thailand from the *63VFKHPH7KH)7$KDVQRQHWKHOHVVEHHQPHWZLWKVWURQJ UHVHUYDWLRQV IURP 7KDL 1*2V ZKLFK DUH FRQFHUQHG DERXW the inclusion of alcohol products, intellectual property issues (especially generic drugs), and human rights. Thailand has WKH KLJKHVW SUHYDOHQFH RI +,9 LQ $VLD DQG WKH JRYHUQPHQW distributes cheap treatment drugs. Other contentious issues 53 UHODWH WR ¿VKHULHV VHUYLFHV LQYHVWPHQW UHJXODWLRQV SXEOLF procurement, competition, and geographical indications), and sustainable development. 54 Thailand seeks technology transfers from the EU, which it sees as crucial for its growing and modernising economy and greater workers’ mobility. EU investments are important too, especially in support of urbanisation plans. Thailand looks for technical capacity-building from the EU and a partnership on knowledge transfer. The EU is seeking better protection for its investments. An FTA with Thailand is important for the EU given the increased competition EU companies face from their Asian and American rivals. With Thailand very engaged in the global free trade race (26 FTAs proposed, ongoing or concluded), trade liberalisation would be an important step for EU commercial interests. The political component of the EU-Thailand relationship has been punctuated by controversies given frequent political upheavals in Thailand. The EU suspended diplomatic relations with the country following the 2006 coup, resuming full diplomatic ties with the government in 2008. The country however remains bitterly divided between opposing political camps. Amidst the ongoing (at the time of writing) debilitating political stalemate and violent protests within the country, the EU has been urging dialogue and a democratic resolution to the crisis. On the institutional level, the EU and Thailand have a regular, DOEHLW QRW DQQXDO VHQLRU RI¿FLDOV¶ PHHWLQJ ZKLFK LV WKH KLJKHVW OHYHO RI SROLWLFDO GLDORJXH 7KH (87KDLODQG 3&$ ZLOO VLJQL¿FDQWO\ LQFUHDVH WKH QXPEHU RI ELODWHUDO GLDORJXHV (8 &RPPLVVLRQ 3UHVLGHQW %DUURVR DQG +LJK 5HSUHVHQWDWLYH Ashton visited Thailand in 2012, while Thai Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra visited Brussels in 2013. Beyond economic issues, bilateral priorities include capacity-building in the security sector, and global threats and challenges. 7KDLODQG GRHV QRW UHFHLYH VLJQL¿FDQW GHYHORSPHQW DLG although EU humanitarian aid has proved at times crucial LQ UHVSRQVH WR WKH UHJXODU ÀRRGV W\SKRRQV DQG RWKHU QDWXUDO GLVDVWHUV WKDW KLW WKH FRXQWU\ )ROORZLQJ WKH ÀRRGV (8 UHOLHI PHDVXUHV WR 7KDLODQG WKURXJK (&+2 ZHUH WR WKH WXQH RI ¼ PLOOLRQ %HVLGHV (&+2 KDV EHHQ SURYLGLQJ DVVLVWDQFH to Burmese refugees in Thailand since 1995, funding mainly food aid, health care and the provision of clean water and sanitation. There is a wide scope to increase cooperation in the Thailand KHDOWKVHFWRUQRWDEO\LQWKH¿JKWDJDLQVW+,9DQGPDODULD7KH EU and Thailand can successfully expand their partnership in GLVDVWHUUHVLOLHQFHDQGUHVSRQVHFRXQWHUWUDI¿FNLQJKXPDQV weapons, and drugs), security sector reform, deforestation, XUEDQLVDWLRQDQGFLW\SODQQLQJDVZHOODV¿VKLQJ Thailand seeks greater engagement from the EU bilaterally, with ASEAN and in the region. Thailand’s relationships with its neighbours, especially Myanmar, Lao PDR and &DPERGLDRIIHUDQLPSRUWDQWJDWHZD\IRUHQKDQFHGGLDORJXH and cooperation with the EU. Thailand is also amongst the top investors in these countries and in Vietnam. Dialogue on investment and market connectivity within this sub-group can be pursued and prioritised especially with a view to the REMHFWLYHRIVHWWLQJXSWKH$6($1&RPPXQLW\E\7KH EU has not been diplomatically involved on issues such as the 7KDL&DPERGLDQWHUULWRULDOGLVSXWHVRYHUWKH3UHDK9LKHDUFDVH (a 3km long disputed territory surrounding an 11th century &DPERGLDQ WHPSOH UHFHQWO\ UHVROYHG E\ WKH ,QWHUQDWLRQDO &RXUW RI -XVWLFH +RZHYHU WKH (8 VKRXOG DFWLYHO\ SURPRWH respect for the rule of law and foment diplomatic channels in times of heightened tensions in its bilateral dealings with both countries. Thailand’s relationship with Myanmar, where the EU is a top international donor and important partner, is particularly relevant. Together, both parties can play a constructive role in 0\DQPDU &RQVXOWLQJ 7KDLODQG RQ 0\DQPDU¶V GHYHORSPHQW especially given Bangkok’s own remarkable development history, its knowledge of Myanmar and its cultural proximity WRWKHFRXQWU\FRXOGEHEHQH¿FLDO7KHVHFRQVXOWDWLRQVFRXOG for example lead the EU to target projects that have been successful in Thailand and that could be adapted to Myanmar. The Thai government’s role in encouraging sustainable DQG OHJDO ORJJLQJ LQ QHLJKERXULQJ FRXQWULHV &DPERGLD DQG Myanmar resonates with the EU’s own efforts to promote its )RUHVW /DZ (QIRUFHPHQW *RYHUQDQFH DQG 7UDGH )/(*7 initiative, which aims to protect forests and biodiversity. Thailand is not directly involved in the dispute concerning the 6RXWK&KLQD6HDEXWFRQVLGHUVWKDWJUHDWHULQYROYHPHQWRIWKH EU in promoting diplomatic solutions could help overcome the ]HURVXPORJLF,QWKLVUHJDUG7KDLODQGVHHVWKH(8¶VDLPVDV compatible with those of ASEAN. O 55 Vietnam MATT BISHOP / FLICKR 5HFHQWO\LQFOXGHGLQWKH1H[W(OHYHQ1DQGWKH&,9(76 ± &RORPELD ,QGRQHVLD 9LHWQDP (J\SW 7XUNH\ DQG 6RXWK Africa – groups of emerging countries, the economic rise of post-war Vietnam has been nothing short of impressive. The Doi Moi reforms of the mid-1980s transformed much of the country from a highly-centralised and largely-agrarian economy into a socialist-oriented, planned market economy that encouraged industrialisation and privatisation. Vietnam DFKLHYHGDURXQGSHUFHQWDYHUDJH*'3JURZWKIURP WR*URZWKZDVIXUWKHUVXVWDLQHGDWDURXQGSHUFHQW from 2000 to 2013 as the country began its integration into the larger world economy. Vietnam joined the World Trade Organisation (WTO) in 2007 and is today one of the most open economies in Asia. While Vietnam is one of the world’s few remaining single-party socialist states, the Vietnamese government has made important strides in poverty reduction, promoting income equality, raising living standards, and subsidising education and healthcare. Equitable economic policies have contributed to reducing poverty by nearly 50 per cent in the past 20 years. Today, 18.9 per cent of the population lives below the poverty line and the FRXQWU\¶V UHODWLYH SRYHUW\ UDWH LV EHORZ WKDW RI &KLQD DQG WKH Vietnam Philippines. In 2012, Vietnam’s unemployment rate was only SHU FHQW 9LHWQDP¶V *'3 VWRRG DW ELOOLRQ LQ ZLWK D SHU FDSLWD LQFRPH RI *ROGPDQ 6DFKV H[SHFWV the economy to become the world’s 17th largest by 2025, and DFFRUGLQJ WR 3ULFHZDWHUKRXVH&RRSHUV 9LHWQDP ZLOO E\ WKHQ become the fastest growing emerging economy worldwide. 7KH(8DQG9LHWQDPHVWDEOLVKHGRI¿FLDOGLSORPDWLFWLHVRQO\ in 1990, the last of the ASEAN group of states. The relationship is also arguably the most rapidly transforming one, keeping pace with the radical economic and social transformations in the country over the past two decades. A primarily aid and trade based partnership, it has quickly broadened to other DUHDVRISROLWLFDOFRRSHUDWLRQ$3DUWQHUVKLSDQG&RRSHUDWLRQ $JUHHPHQW3&$ZDVFRQFOXGHGLQ2FWREHUVLJQHGLQ June 2012) and the sixth round of negotiations on a bilateral )UHH7UDGH$JUHHPHQW)7$ZDVFRPSOHWHGLQ)HEUXDU\ 7KHQHZ3&$LVWRSURYLGHDEHWWHUIUDPHZRUNIRULQWHUDFWLRQ EHWZHHQWKHWZRSDUWQHUVZKLOHVLJQL¿FDQWO\EURDGHQLQJWKH scope of the relationship to regional and global challenges. Bilateral merchandise trade between the EU and Vietnam amounted to €22.9 billion in 2012, with €18.5 billion in EU LPSRUWVIURP9LHWQDPUHVXOWLQJLQDODUJHVXUSOXVIRU+DQRL 7UDGH KDV EHHQ JURZLQJ VLJQL¿FDQWO\ VLQFH ,Q 9LHWQDP¶VH[SRUWVWRWKH(8URVHE\SHUFHQWZKLOH(8 exports to the country grew by 18 per cent. In 2012 the EU was the second-largest destination for Vietnamese products and its second-largest partner overall with an 11.6 per cent share of the country’s total external trade. The EU was ahead of Japan and the US (with 10.3 per cent and 9.9 per cent, UHVSHFWLYHO\EXWZDVZHOOEHKLQG&KLQDZKLFKKHOGD per cent share of Vietnam’s total external trade. Vietnam is WKH(8¶V¿IWKODUJHVWWUDGLQJSDUWQHUZLWKLQ$6($1DQGWKH 31st globally with a 0.7 per cent share of the EU’s total foreign trade. Trade in services in 2012 stood at around €6 billion. The EU is the fourth-largest investment partner for Vietnam, with almost €1 billion in FDI in 2012. According to a Vietnam-EU Mutrap1 study, an FTA would FUHDWHEHQH¿WVIRUERWKVLGHVLQFOXGLQJLQFUHDVHGH[SRUWVE\ Vietnam to the EU by as much as 20 per cent, and an increase LQ9LHWQDP¶V*'3E\SHUFHQWSHU\HDU7KH)7$ZRXOG & BjigVe^hV:jgdeZVcIgVYZEda^XnVcY>ckZhibZciHjeedgiEgd_ZXiZmZXjiZYWnK^ZicVb¼hB^c^hign d[>cYjhignVcYIgVYZBD>I# 57 58 also give European exporters greater access to one of the region’s most dynamic markets and give the EU an edge over WKHDOUHDG\VWURQJFRPSHWLWLRQWKH8QLRQIDFHVIURP&KLQD India, the US, Japan, and other ASEAN countries. The FTA LV QHFHVVDU\ IRU RWKHU UHDVRQV WRR$V RI -DQXDU\ WKH *HQHUDOLVHG 6FKHPH RI 3UHIHUHQFHV *63 IRU 9LHWQDP KDV EHHQ PRGL¿HG LQWURGXFLQJ GLIIHUHQW UHJLPHV IRU GLIIHUHQW categories of products. The FTA would largely simplify rules and regulations for Vietnamese traders by cutting duties to over 90 per cent of bilateral trade. Increased liberalisation in trade and greater regulatory approximation would also be an effective way to counter the protectionist measures introduced by Vietnam, which pose major market access obstacles for EU trade and investment. Another contentious issue is the clause on the Rules of Origin (which establish where goods are made), in particular concerning the textile sector. The EU and its member states together represent the secondODUJHVWGRQRURIRI¿FLDOGHYHORSPHQWDVVLVWDQFH2'$DQG WKHELJJHVWDLGJUDQWVSURYLGHUWR9LHWQDPELOOLRQIURP WR7KH(XURSHDQ8QLRQFRPPLWWHG¼PLOOLRQ in ODA for 2013. Vietnam is also the European Investment %DQN¶VOHDGLQJEHQH¿FLDU\SHUFDSLWDLQ$VLDZLWKRYHUKDOI a billion euros in concessionary loans in the past decade. The EU has been key in promoting sustainable development LQ 9LHWQDP *UHHQ JURZWK LV DOVR DQ LPSRUWDQW FKDSWHU LQ WKH )7$ ZKLFK DLPV WR EHQH¿W FRPSDQLHV DSSO\LQJ JUHHQ technologies and the production of environmentally-friendly items through credit support programmes or credit subsidies. 7KH (8 DQG 9LHWQDP DUH FXUUHQWO\ QHJRWLDWLQJ D )/(*7 Action Plan Voluntary Partnership Agreement to counter LOOHJDO ORJJLQJ DQG LPSURYH IRUHVW JRYHUQDQFH *LYHQ WKDW Vietnam is one of the most natural disaster-prone countries in WKHZRUOG(8HPHUJHQF\DLGKDVDOVREHHQLPSRUWDQW(&+2 provided nearly €21.5 million in response to natural disasters ±¼PLOOLRQIRUGLVDVWHUSUHSDUHGQHVV± 2013), and €3.5 million in humanitarian aid for populations DIIHFWHGE\WKHÀRRGVHVSHFLDOO\LQWKH0HNRQJ'HOWD Political relations between the EU and Vietnam have developed concurrently to economic engagement. For example, since 2011 the two partners hold an annual bilateral human rights dialogue. Beyond Vietnam’s internal challenges, the country LQFUHDVLQJO\IDFHVGLI¿FXOWFKDOOHQJHVLQLWVUHJLRQ9LHWQDP plays a key role in regional geopolitics, engaging in strategic EDODQFLQJEHWZHHQPDMRUSRZHUVVXFKDV&KLQD,QGLD-DSDQ Vietnam and the US, all of which in turn communicate with each other in some respects via their relationship with Vietnam. 7KHODWWHULVDNH\GLVSXWDQWRIWKH6RXWK&KLQD6HDZKHUH &KLQD¶VPXVFOHÀH[LQJKDVSHUWXUEHGPRVWRIWKHFRXQWULHVLQ WKHUHJLRQ7KH&KLQHVHFKDOOHQJHLVFRPSRXQGHGE\+DQRL¶V HFRQRPLF GHSHQGHQFH RQ LWV ODUJH QHLJKERXU ,QGR&KLQHVH ULYDOU\UHFHQWO\H[WHQGHGWRWKH6RXWK&KLQD6HDWRRZKHUH ,QGLD¶V VWDWHRZQHG RLO FRPSDQ\ 21*& 9LGHVK /WG 29/ has purchased oil exploration rights from Vietnam. The US and Vietnam have recently expanded bilateral military ties in ¿YH DUHDV PDULWLPH VHFXULW\ VHDUFK DQG UHVFXH RSHUDWLRQV peacekeeping operations, humanitarian assistance, and disaster relief. Vietnam is interested in enhancing strategic and military ties with the US. Equally, the US is eager to DFTXLUH PRUH DFFHVV WR &DP 5DQK %D\ D IRUPHU 86 1DY\ EDVHRYHUORRNLQJWKH6RXWK&KLQD6HD The EU as an international actor with global aspirations has a UROHDQGUHVSRQVLELOLW\LQ$VLD*LYHQ9LHWQDP¶VSLYRWDOUROH LQUHJLRQDOJHRSROLWLFVWKH(8¶VSDUWQHUVKLSZLWK+DQRLJLYHV it the opportunity to foster its objectives of promoting peace, maritime safety, freedom of navigation, resource sharing, and the rule of law. O 59 QTABLE 1: COMPARATIVE INDICATORS Indicators Demography Population (Mn) 1 Median Age2 Brunei Darusallam 2013 0.41 2025 2050 Economy GDP5 (Bn €) 0.48 18.12 0.55 22.57 2013 30.5 20253 32.2 2050 43.7 8.25 321.38 10.58 24.4 27.8 20.6 27.4 27.6 33.8 25.3 31.5 36.2 38.4 32.6 39.3 39.8 Vietnam 53.26 98.40 5.41 67.01 91.68 34.96 57.65 119.22 6.33 67.90 99.81 42.11 58.65 157.12 7.07 61.74 103.70 27.9 23 38.1 36.9 29.8 33.0 27.5 47.3 37.5 34.4 31.5 50 51.1 45.6 Old Age Child Old Age Child Old Age Child Old Age Child Old Age Child Old Age Child Old Age Child Old Age Child Old Age Child 37 5 51 6 40 9 62 6 44 7 39 8 54 7 21 14 30 11 37 9 2025 30 11 44 8 30 13 49 7 35 13 33 13 43 10 19 35 29 19 30 14 2050 28 23 31 15 27 29 34 14 28 25 28 27 32 19 20 58 28 32 27 2.2 2.2 2010 GDP per capita7 (€) GDP Projections (Bn $)8 683.5 7.2 236.2 51.4 194.7 7.3 6.2 8.2 5.6 6.3 7.1 6.5 8 5.1 5.5 2.6 6 6.2 8.5 7.2 2012 32,010.1 736.3 2,768.8 1,089.1 2030 31.9 65.1 2,960.5 41.7 104.5 ( 2012) - 100.2 - 2012 Merchandise (13) 110.3 6.8 1.3 6.5 5 3.6 5.2 0.1 6 5.3 7.6 14.8 7.8 6.8 8,079.5 834.6 2,013.6 40,247.1 4,265.1 1,242.1 918.3 189.2 910.3 675.8 1,191.2 595.2 127.4 - 71.1 258.9 167.1 - % Partner % Partner % Partner % Partner % Partner % Partner % Partner % Partner % Japan S Korea Singapore China EU 30.5 10.4 9.8 9.2 8.4 Thailand Vietnam China US EU 18.9 15.4 13.7 12.1 10.5 Japan China Singapore EU S Korea 13.9 13.4 11.3 8.4 7.1 Thailand China Vietnam EU Japan 52.5 18 9 5.9 2.7 China Singapore Japan EU US 13.8 13.4 11.1 9.8 8.4 China Thailand Japan India S. Korea 29.5 26.9 7.9 7.2 7.1 Japan US China EU Singapore 14.4 12.8 11.3 9.3 8.1 Malaysia EU China Indonesia US 11.5 10.8 10.5 8 7.8 Japan China EU US Malaysia 15.3 13.4 8.7 7.5 5.4 China EU Japan US S Korea 18.5 13.1 11.1 11 9.5 UK Germany The Netherlands France Belgium 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. Germany UK The Netherlands France Spain 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. Germany The Netherlands Italy France UK 43.1 Services 21.9 (2009) 29.1 Rank among EU trade partners (2012)15 102 84 5 Total Imports 284.8 Partner 136.5 (14) 32 213.8 % 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 2012 Old Age Partner 100 Services (Bn€) (2011)17 Thailand Child 2011 Goods (Bn€) (2012)16 Singapore 2010 2012 Trade as a % of GDP (2012)12 Philippines 282.01 10.9 Top 5 trading partners (EU Member States)11 Myanmar 29.72 13.2 Top 5 trading partners (% Goods)10 Malaysia 6.78 2012 Real GDP growth (%)6 Lao PDR 249.87 Foreign Currency Reserves9 (Bn $)(2013) Trade Indonesia 15.14 (Total = Child + Old Age) Dependency Ratio4 Cambodia 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. Germany UK France Belgium The Netherlands 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. Germany The Netherlands France UK Italy 54.8 139.7 6.6 9.8 30 135 11.9 149.2 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. Germany UK Italy Spain France 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. Germany The Netherlands UK France Italy 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. Germany France The Netherlands UK Italy 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. Germany UK The Netherlands France Italy 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. Germany UK France The Netherlands Italy - 46.9 286.9 130.5 161.2 26.3 - 13.3 86.6 28.1 14.2 25 140 49 14 26 32 4.9 153.2 13.2 48 295.7 193.9 86.9 86.2 Total Exports 9.4 6.1 147.9 2.6 177.2 6.4 40.5 320.8 177.6 Imports from the EU 1.2 0.2 9.6 0.2 14.5 0.2 4.8 30.3 14.8 5.4 Exports to the EU 0.1 1.8 15.4 0.2 20.3 0.2 5.1 21.5 17 18.5 Total Imports 0.8 1.2 (2012) 25.9 (2012) 0.2 32.7 (2012) 0.8 11 (2012) 91.6 (2012) 40.9 (2012) 9.6 (2012) Total Exports 0.7 1.9 (2012) 17.6 (2012) 0.4 29.2 (2012) 0.4 14.4 (2012) 87.1 (2012) 38.3 (2012) 7.4 (2012) Imports from the EU - - 2.9 - 3.2 - 1.2 16.1 2.4 - Exports to the EU - - 1.8 - 2.5 - 1.1 11.5 4.8 - Mapping EU-ASEAN Relations Indicators Brunei Darusallam Inflows ($)18 (2012) (Mn $) Investment Myanmar 294 10,074 Outflows ($) (2012) (Mn $) 8 31 5,423 -21 From the EU (€)20 (2011) (Mn $) - - 5,100 - To the EU (€) (2011) (Mn $) Philippines Singapore Thailand Vietnam 2,243 2,797 56,651 8,607 8,368 17,115 - 1,845 23,080 11,911 1,200 3,600 - 400 5,800 1,300 - - - 162 - 0 - 100 8,200 100 - 13,302 8,413 205,656 2,483 132,400 11,910 31,027 682,396 159,125 72,530 699 423 11,627 -9 120,396 - 8,953 401,426 52,561 - - - 27,000 - 24,000 - 7,500 122,800 14,100 - To the EU (€) (2011) (Mn $) - - -2,500 - 3,800 - 1,200 67,300 500 - R&D26 (2002-2010)27 Expenditure as % of GDP - - 0.1 - 0.6 - 0.1 2.7 0.2 - 286.3 17.4 89.6 15.8 364.6 18.4 78.5 5,834 315.5 115.9 Global Competitiveness Index 2013-201428 Rank 26 88 38 81 24 139 59 2 37 70 Score 4.9 4 4.5 4.1 5 3.2 4.3 5.6 4.5 4.2 74 110 85 - 32 - 90 8 57 76 35.5 28.1 32 - 46.9 - 31.2 59.4 37.6 34.8 Inward ($)22 (2012) (Mn $) From the EU (€)24 (2011) (Mn $) 25 Innovation and Competitiveness Malaysia 19,853 Outward ($)23 (2012) (Mn $) Researchers per million people Rank Global Innovation Index 2013 Overall Rankings29 GII Score Market Size30 31 Market Readiness (Ranking) Lao PDR 1,557 21 FDI Stock 131 92 15 122 26 79 33 34 22 36 Quality of Overall Infrastructure32 39 86 82 65 25 146 98 5 61 110 Business Sophistication33 56 86 37 78 20 146 49 17 40 98 - 115 56 125 30 138 60 4 44 75 Intellectual Property Protection 39 99 55 64 30 126 78 2 102 116 Strength of Investor Protection 100 69 41 146 4 - 107 2 13 134 Prevalence of Trade Barriers35 70 80 71 79 30 108 60 4 50 104 Country Credit Rating34 Availability of Financial Services 57 81 51 79 22 142 40 5 26 93 Availability of Latest Technologies 50 82 60 112 37 148 47 16 75 134 30 138 121 138 64 149 114 18 103 127 Voice and Accountability 33 19 51 5 38 4 48 54 37 6 Political Stability39 77 41 27 47 45 18 15 97 13 56 Government Effectiveness40 75 22 44 21 80 4 58 100 61 44 Rule of Law41 73 17 34 23 66 6 36 96 50 38 Rank 38 160 114 140 53 157 94 5 102 116 Score - 36 38.1 (2011) - 46.2 - 43 47.8 40 - Human Development Index (2013)36 Governance and Society Indonesia 850 19 FDI Flows Cambodia Rank 38 Governance Indicators 201237 (By Rank 0=Lowest, 100=Highest) 42 Corruption Perceptions Index 43 GINI Index (2009) 61 QTABLE 1: COMPARATIVE INDICATORS EU Instruments Military Balance Energy, Environment and Resources Indicators Brunei Darusallam Cambodia Indonesia Lao PDR Malaysia Myanmar Philippines Singapore Thailand Vietnam Total production of energy44 2011 (Mtoe) 18.69 3.64 346.99 - 93.12 23.10 23.25 0.00 63.88 71.38 Total net imports of energy45 2011 (Mtoe) -14.61 1.61 -147.34 - -17.61 -7.29 18.80 55.85 46.24 -10.63 Total primary energy supply46 2010 (Mtoe) 3.3 5 207.8 - 72.6 14 38.4 32.8 117.4 59.2 Renewable energy47 2010 (% of TPES) 0 3.6 71.6 - 4 11 14.1 0.2 23.1 17.1 Mt of CO 48 2 8.91 4.09 425.88 193.96 8.25 77.12 64.77 243.19 137.36 0.88 0.14 1.06 - 1.04 0.45 0.57 0.37 1.16 1.75 21.94 0.28 1.76 - 6.72 0.17 0.81 12.49 3.50 1.56 Million $ 411 217 6,866 18.7 (2011) 4,697 - 2,977 9,722 5,387 3,363 As a % of GDP 2.4 1.6 0.8 0.2 (2011) 1.5 - 1.2 3.6 1.5 2.4 26/87 341/43 1546/21 - 910/28 - 701/33 - 38/82 - EIDHR 2011-201353 - 900,000 900,000 600,000 300,000 900,000 900,000 - - 600,000 Development Cooperation Instrument 2007-2013 (Mn €)54 0 152 494 - 150 17 (package assistance 2012-2013) 130 0 17 304 Masters Courses 2004-201355 - 27 344 10 166 14 225 41 269 313 Doctorates 2004-201356 - 1 8 - 4 2 7 1 6 15 CO2 emissions (2011) Emissions/GDP (Kg CO2/2005 $)49 50 Per capita (t CO2) Defence Budget51 (2012) Military Interventions Scholarships – Erasmus Mundus Personnel contribution to UN Peace-keeping Operations/ Rank (2012)52 QENDNOTES 1 World Population Prospects: the 2012 Revision, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, United Nations. Medium variant, available at: http://esa.un.org/wpp/Documentation/pdf/WPP2012_%20KEY%20FINDINGS.pdf 2 Ibid. 3 Ibid., 2008 Revision. 4 Ibid. 5 Bilateral Relations, Country Factsheets, DG Trade, European Commission, available at http://ec.europa.eu/trade/creatingopportunities/bilateral-relations/countries-and-regions/ Data from: World Economic Outlook, International Monetary Fund. GDP measured at market rates. 6 Ibid. 7 Ibid. 8 World in 2050: The BRICs and beyond: prospects, challenges and opportunities, PwC (PricewaterhouseCoopers) – available at: http://www.pwc.com/en_GX/gx/world-2050/assets/pwc-world-in-2050-report-january-2013.pdf 9 Data Template on International Reserves and Foreign Currency Liquidity, International Monetary Fund. 10 Op. Cit. in Note 5. 11 European Commission, DG Trade - available at : http://exporthelp.europa.eu/thdapp/display.htm;jsessionid=EC7BB31319B07 F177CD70C7665FEB36F?page=st%2fst_Statistics.html&docType=main&languageId=en 12 World Development Indicators, The World Bank, available at: http://data.worldbank.org/products/wdi 13 Merchandise trade as a share of GDP is the sum of merchandise exports and imports divided by the value of GDP, all in current US dollars. World Trade Organization and World Bank GDP estimates. 14 Trade in services is the sum of service exports and imports divided by the value of GDP, all in current US dollars. 15 Op. Cit. in Note 5. 16 Ibid. 17 Ibid. 18 World Investment Report 2013: Global Value Chains: Investment and Trade for Development, United Nations Conference on Trade and Development statistics, available at http://unctad.org/en/Pages/DIAE/World%20Investment%20Report/World_ Investment_Report.aspx 19 Ibid. 20 Op. Cit. in Note 5. 21 Ibid. 22 Op. Cit. in Note 18. 23 Ibid. 24 Op. Cit. in Note 5. 25 Ibid. 26 Human Development Report 2013, United Nations Development Programme, Available at: http://hdr.undp.org/en/content/ human-development-report-2013 27 Data refer to the most recent year available during the period specified. 28 K. Schwab, The Global Competitiveness Report 2013-2014, World Economic Forum, 2013. 29 S. Dutta and B. Lanvin, The Global Innovation Index 2013, Cornell University, INSEAD and the World Intellectual Property Organization, 2013. 30 All market readiness indicators are reported in the Global Innovation Index, Op. Cit. in Note 29. 31 Market Size is the sum of gross domestic product plus value of imports of goods and services, minus value of exports of goods and services, 2012. Mapping EU-ASEAN Relations 32 Assessment of general infrastructure (e.g., transport, telephony, and energy), 2012-13. 33 Business sophistication concerns two elements that are intricately linked: the quality of a country’s overall business networks and the quality of individual firms’ operations and strategies. 34 Institutional Investor’s Country Credit Ratings are based on expert assessment of the probability of sovereign debt default, March 2013. 35 The extent to which non-tariff barriers (e.g., health and product standards, technical and labeling requirements, etc.) limit the ability of imported goods to compete in the domestic market, 2012-13. 36 Op. Cit. in Note 26. 37 The Worldwide Governance Indicators, World Bank, 2013. 38 Reflects perceptions of the extent to which a country’s citizens are able to participate in selecting their government, as well as freedom of expression, freedom of association, and a free media. 39 Reflects perceptions of the likelihood that the government will be destabilised or overthrown by unconstitutional or violent means, including politically-motivated violence and terrorism. 40 Reflects perceptions of the quality of public services, the quality of the civil service and the degree of its independence from political pressures, the quality of policy formulation and implementation, and the credibility of the government’s commitment to such policies. 41 Reflects perceptions of the extent to which agents have confidence in and abide by the rules of society, and in particular the quality of contract enforcement, property rights, the police, and the courts, as well as the likelihood of crime and violence. 42 Corruption Perceptions Index 2013, Transparency International, 2013. 43 GINI Index, The World Bank,The Gini coefficient measures the degree of inequality in the distribution of family income in a country. A value of 0 represents absolute equality; a value of 100 absolute inequality. 44 Key World Energy Statistics 2013, International Energy Agency. 45 Ibid. 46 Renewables Information, International Energy Agency, 2012. The total primary energy supply (TPES) is made up of production + imports – exports – international marine bunkers – international aviation bunkers +/- stock changes. 47 Ibid., Renewables include: hydroelectricity, geothermal, solar photovoltaic, solar thermal, tide, wave, ocean, wind, solid biomass, biogas, liquid biomass and renewable municipal waste. 48 Op. Cit. in Note 44. Figures only include emissions from fossil fuel combustion. 49 Ibid., GDP at market exchange rates. 50 Ibid. 51 SIPRI military expenditure database, available at : http://www.sipri.org/research/armaments/milex/milex_database 52 Ranking of Military and Police Contributions to UN Operations, UN Factsheet, 31 December 2013. 53 Multiannual Indicative Planning – European Commission – Available at: http://ec.europa.eu/europeaid/what/human-rights/ documents/20110321_mip_eidhr_2011-2013_for_publication3_en.pdf 54 European External Action Service, available at: http://ec.europa.eu/europeaid/where/asia/country-cooperation/index_en.htm 55 European Commission - Erasmus Mundus Masters Courses, number of enrolled students – 2013, available at: http://eacea. ec.europa.eu/erasmus_mundus/results_compendia/documents/statistics/cumulative/statistics_by_country_erasmus_ mundus_masters_students_selected_each_academic_year,_2004-05_to_2013-14.pdf 56 European Commission – Erasmus Mundus Doctorates, number of enrolled students – 2013, available at: http://eacea. ec.europa.eu/erasmus_mundus/results_compendia/documents/statistics/cumulative/statistics_by_country_erasmus_ mundus_doctorates_candidates_selected_each_academic_year,_2010-11_to_2012-13.pdf 63 QTABLE 2: TOP TRADE PARTNERS OF ASEAN MEMBER STATES 2012 Brunei Cambodia Indonesia Lao PDR Malaysia Myanmar Philippines Singapore Thailand Vietnam 2011 Brunei Cambodia Indonesia Lao PDR Malaysia Myanmar Philippines Singapore Thailand Vietnam 2010 Brunei Cambodia Indonesia Lao PDR Malaysia Myanmar Philippines Singapore Thailand Vietnam 5 1 Japan ASEAN ASEAN ASEAN ASEAN ASEAN ASEAN ASEAN ASEAN China 2 ASEAN China Japan China China China Japan EU Japan ASEAN 3 South Korea US China EU Japan Japan US China China EU 4 China EU EU Japan EU India China US EU Japan EU Japan South Korea South Korea US South Korea EU Japan US US 1 Japan ASEAN ASEAN ASEAN ASEAN ASEAN ASEAN ASEAN ASEAN China 2 ASEAN US Japan Australia China China Japan EU Japan ASEAN 3 South Korea China China China Japan India US China EU EU 4 5 Australia EU EU EU EU Japan China US US Japan India Japan South Korea Japan US South Korea EU Japan South Korea US 1 Japan ASEAN ASEAN ASEAN ASEAN ASEAN ASEAN ASEAN ASEAN China 2 ASEAN US Japan US China China Japan EU Japan ASEAN 3 South Korea China China China Japan India US China China US 4 5 Australia EU EU Australia EU Japan EU US EU EU China Canada US EU US South Korea China Japan US Japan Mapping EU-ASEAN Relations 2009 Brunei Cambodia Indonesia Lao PDR Malaysia Myanmar Philippines Singapore Thailand Vietnam 2008 Brunei Cambodia Indonesia Lao PDR Malaysia Myanmar Philippines Singapore Thailand Vietnam 3 South Korea China China Australia EU India US China China EU 4 5 India EU EU EU US Japan EU US US US Australia Canada US Japan Japan South Korea South Korea Japan EU Japan 1 Japan ASEAN ASEAN ASEAN ASEAN ASEAN ASEAN ASEAN ASEAN China 2 ASEAN US Japan China China China Japan EU Japan ASEAN 1 Japan US ASEAN ASEAN ASEAN ASEAN ASEAN ASEAN ASEAN China 2 3 4 5 ASEAN ASEAN Japan China US China US EU Japan ASEAN Australia China China Japan EU India Japan China EU Japan South Korea EU EU Australia China Japan EU US China US EU Canada South Korea South Korea South Korea South Korea China Japan US South Korea 65 EU-ASEAN dialogues Ministerial dialogues EU-ASEAN Ministerial Meeting 7^Zcc^Va ASEAN Economic Ministers and EU Trade Commissioner Consultations Meeting (AEM-EU) 6ccjVa 66 Other dialogues EU-ASEAN Joint Cooperation Committee 6ccjVa EU-ASEAN Meeting of the Committees of Permanent Representatives ;^ghi]ZaY^c'%&) EU-ASEAN SOM on Trans-national Crime (SOMTC) 6ccjVa EU-ASEAN dialogue on human rights 6ccjVa EU-ASEAN dialogue on ICT 6ccjVa EU-ASEAN dialogue on aviation 6ccjVa EU-ASEAN dialogue on climate change 6ccjVa EU-ASEAN dialogue on energy 6ccjVa EU-ASEAN dialogue on science and technology ;^ghi]ZaY^c'%&( EU-ASEAN High Level Dialogue on Maritime Cooperation ;^ghi]ZaY^c'%&( List of Abbreviations AADMER 68 ASEAN Agreement on Disaster Management and Emergency Response CTBT Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty DCI Development Cooperation Instrument AAP-JRCC ASEAN Action Plan on a Joint Response to Climate Change DIPECHO ECHO Disaster Preparedness Programme ACCI ASEAN Climate Change Initiative EASCAB EU-ASEAN Statistical Capacity Building Programme ADB Asian Development Bank EBA Everything But Arms ADMM+ ASEAN Defence Ministers Meeting Plus EC European Community AEMF ASEAN’s Expanded Maritime Forum AFCC ASEAN Framework on Climate Change and Food Security ECAP EU-ASEAN Project on the Protection of Intellectual Property Rights AFTA ASEAN Free Trade Area ECCIL EU Chamber of Commerce and Industry ECHO European Community Humanitarian Office EEZ Exclusive Economic Zones AHA Centre ASEAN Coordinating Centre for Humanitarian Assistance on Disaster Management AICHR ASEAN Intergovernmental Commission on Human Rights EIDHR European Instrument for Democracy and Human Rights APEC Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation EIF Enhanced Integrated Framework ARF ASEAN Regional Forum EU European Union ARISE ASEAN Regional Integration Support from the EU EU SHARE EU Support to Higher Education in ASEAN Region ASEAN Association of Southeast Asian Nations EWGs Expert Working Groups AWGCC ASEAN Working Group on Climate Change FDI Foreign Direct Investment CBRN Chemical, Biological, Radiological and Nuclear FLEGT Forest Law Enforcement, Governance and Trade CIVETS Colombia, Indonesia, Vietnam, Egypt, Turkey, and Thailand FTA Free Trade Agreement CNRP Cambodia National Rescue Party G20 Group of 20 CSDP Common Security and Defence Policy GDP Gross Domestic Product Mapping EU-ASEAN Relations GHG Greenhouse Gases NSEDP National Socio-Economic Development Plan GIs Geographical Indications ODA Official Development Assistance GSP Generalised Scheme of Preferences OIC Organisation of Islamic Countries HADR Humanitarian Assistance and Disaster Relief PCA Partnership and Cooperation Agreement HDI Human Development Index PERC EU Rehabilitation Programme for Cambodia IMF International Monetary Fund READI Regional EU-ASEAN Dialogue Initiative IP Intellectual Property ISAF NATO International Security Assistance Force ReCAAP Regional Cooperation Agreement on Combating Piracy and Armed Robbery against Ships ISG Inter-Sessional Group RCEP Regional Cooperation Economic Partnership JCC Joint Cooperation Committee SMEs Small and Medium Size Enterprises LDCs Least Developed Countries SOM Senior Officials Meeting LGBT Lesbian, Gay, Bisexual, and Transgender TAC Treaty of Amity and Cooperation Lao PDR Lao People’s Democratic Republic TDF Trade Development Facility TPP Trans-Pacific Partnership LPRP Lao People’s Revolutionary Party TRA Trade-Related Assistance MDGs Millennium Development Goals UNCLOS United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea MFN Most favoured nation UNICRI United Nations Inter-regional Crime and Justice Research Institute MILF Moro Islamic Liberation Front OVL ONGC Videsh Ltd NGO Nongovernmental organisation UXO Unexploded Ordnance NLD National League for Democracy WTO World Trade Organisation NPT Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear weapons 69
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