PUBP720: Managerial Economics and Policy Analysis
Spring 2017
DRAFT 11/20/2016
course credit: 3
location: Arlington Founders Hall, rm. 475
meeting time: Wednesday 7:20-10:00PM
1st Day: January 25, 2017
email (preferred contact):
[email protected]
office hours: Wednesday 6:00-7:00PM (FH
664)
tel: 202-378-6438 (cell)
Description of the Course
LEARNING OBJECTIVES
This course is a workshop in using analytic techniques to answer difficult questions about human
decision-making in a social context. Its purpose is to provide students with a sense of confidence
in understanding
1) How individual decisions lead to aggregate (particularly industry-level) outcomes and
vice versa, and
2) How public policies of various types affect both decisions and outcomes.
AUDIENCE
PUBP720 is a core MPP course. It is also a "bridge course" into Ph.D. level microeconomics
courses for students with little prior background in economic analysis, but who are, at minimum,
comfortable with algebra.
Note: This course will require you to develop basic literacy in the use of calculus. You are
not required to have taken a calculus class before taking this course. However, you will be
required to understand and to use calculus in this course.
In advance of the course, you should understand the material covered in the GMU Schar School
Math Camp (PUBP 555) and the GMU Schar School math tutorials
(http://schar.gmu.edu/current-students/masters-advising/masters-101/topic-6-quantitativeskills/math-for-economics-tutorials/). Math Camp is a free workshop offered to all students the
week before each semester (http://schar.gmu.edu/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/HeffelmirePUBP-555-001-Spring-2016.pdf).
Additionally I offer a 2-hour math workshop (see course outline below). I encourage you to
take advantage of both the Math Camp and the additional Math Workshop that I offer.
STUDENT EXPERIENCE
We will be using class time in this course to do work together. Students must come to class
every session prepared—which means in particular that you must have done the readings and
viewed any lectures for that class session. This will allow us to spend class time answering
questions such as:
• Is economics just propaganda?
PUBP720: Managerial Economics and Policy Analysis
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•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Spring 2017
Can higher taxes make you better off?
Will population growth ever stop?
Is the Internet creating jobs?
Why did the Soviet Union collapse?
Is there any way to keep traffic from getting worse?
Can economics end obesity?
Will US “energy independence” bring down gas prices?
Should we export trash to poor places?
EXPECTATIONS
The expectations in this class reflect those that exist in the workplace for policy analysts.
Students are expected to be engaged contributors to every aspect of the work of the class.
Students must create first-rate work of their own and must also contribute actively to
collaborative efforts.
EVALUATION
Students’ grades in this course will be determined as a combination of
• Final exam: 50%
• Midterm: 30%
• Problem sets: 20% [to be described first week of class]
COMMUNICATIONS
You can access the class survey at
https://www.surveymonkey.com/r/ZCWG375
Please fill out the class survey ASAP, if you have not already done so.
The best way to reach me is either by email ([email protected]) or cell phone (202-3786438). If you email a question to me that may require more than a yes/no answer (in particular,
any questions regarding assignments), please include in the message a phone number at which
you can be reached during the day.
When submitting both problem sets and exams, please
Ü Label each page with the first 5 digits of your GMU ID number ONLY. Do not put your
name on any materials submitted for a grade.
Ü Put page numbers on every page.
Ü If submitting material by email or the course website, please use a descriptive file name
beginning with “PUBP720” (e.g. <PUBP720_assignment-3_task-1_myname.doc> rather
than <problem-set.doc> or, worse yet, <ver3 finalFINALrevB.doc>).
COURSE MATERIALS
You are required to purchase one of the two following editions of Microeconomics by Robert
Pindyck and Daniel Rubinfeld:
PUBP720: Managerial Economics and Policy Analysis
Spring 2017
Robert Pindyck and Daniel Rubinfeld, Microeconomics 7th edition, Prentice Hall.
[ISBN 13 #: 978-0132080231] or
Robert Pindyck and Daniel Rubinfeld, Microeconomics 8th edition, Prentice Hall.
[ISBN 13 #: 978-0132857123] or
If you can get either for roughly the same price, go for the 8th edition.
Note: This book costs $50 less on Amazon than it does at the bookstore. If you use you your
gmu.edu email address you will qualify for free Super Saver shipping:
http://www.amazon.com/gp/student/signup/info
Because I have found this option is strongly preferable for students, I have not ordered this
textbook for the campus bookstore this semester.
If you have not done so already, please familiarize yourself with the library’s online resources
(particularly JSTOR), and make sure that you have access to Adobe Acrobat Reader.
Finally, I strongly recommend that you purchase.
Tim Harford, 2006. The Undercover Economist: Exposing Why the Rich Are Rich, the
Poor Are Poor--and Why You Can Never Buy a Decent Used Car! New York: [ISBN10: 0195189779]
Also worth reading, if you haven’t already, are
Daniel Kahneman (2011), Thinking, Fast and Slow. New York, NY: Farrar, Straus and
Giroux. [ISBN: 978-0374275631]
Levitt, Steven D. and Stephen J. Dubner, 2005. Freakonomics: A Rogue Economist
Explains the Hidden Side of Everything, New York: William Morrow. [ISBN: 0-06073132-X]
The Undercover Economist and Freakonomics both provide numerous examples of the creative
use of economic analysis in answering policy questions. Freakonomics is the cleverest of these
three; however the other two books more closely track the material in a graduate level
microeconomics course. Purchase these books is not required.
Professional Ethics
HONOR CODE1
GMU shares in the tradition of an honor system that has existed in Virginia colleges since 1842.
The Honor Code is an integral part of university life. Students are responsible for understanding
the provisions of the code. In the spirit of the code, a student's word is a declaration of good faith
acceptable as truth in all academic matters. Therefore, attempted cheating, plagiarism, lying, and
stealing of academic work and related work constitute Honor Code violations. All work must be
your own. Inappropriate use of the work of others without attribution is plagiarism and a George
Mason University Honor Code violation punishable by expulsion from the University. All
students should familiarize themselves with this honor code provision
1
Description thanks to Professor Steve Ruth.
PUBP720: Managerial Economics and Policy Analysis
Spring 2017
(http://www.gmu.edu/facstaff/handbook/aD.html).
POLICY ON PLAGIARISM
The profession of scholarship and the intellectual life of a university as well as the field of public
policy inquiry depend fundamentally on a foundation of trust. Thus any act of plagiarism strikes
at the heart of the meaning of the university and the purpose of the Schar Scool. It constitutes a
serious breach of professional ethics and it is unacceptable.
Plagiarism is the use of another’s words or ideas presented as one’s own. It includes, among
other things, the use of specific words, ideas, or frameworks that are the product of another’s
work. Honesty and thoroughness in citing sources is essential to professional accountability and
personal responsibility. Appropriate citation is necessary so that arguments, evidence, and claims
can be critically examined.
Plagiarism is wrong because of the injustice it does to the person whose ideas are stolen. But it is
also wrong because it constitutes lying to one’s professional colleagues. From a prudential
perspective, it is shortsighted and self-defeating, and it can ruin a professional career.
The faculty of the Schar School takes plagiarism seriously and has adopted a zero tolerance
policy. Any plagiarized assignment will receive an automatic grade of “F.” This may lead to
failure for the course, resulting in dismissal from the University. This dismissal will be noted on
the student’s transcript. For foreign students who are on a university-sponsored visa (eg. F-1, J-1
or J-2), dismissal also results in the revocation of their visa.
To help enforce the Schar School policy on plagiarism, all written work submitted in partial
fulfillment of course or degree requirements must be available in electronic form so that it can be
compared with electronic databases, as well as submitted to commercial services to which the
School subscribes. Faculty may at any time submit student’s work without prior permission from
the student. Individual instructors may require that written work be submitted in electronic as
well as printed form. The Schar School policy on plagiarism is supplementary to the George
Mason University Honor Code; it is not intended to replace it or substitute for it.
Course Outline
PART I: THEORY OF THE CONSUMER
Session 1: Overview of the course; consumer preferences, indifferences curves (January 25)
Policy question: Is economics just propaganda?
Required readings [read all in advance of the first class]
• Milton Friedman, “The Methodology of Positive Economics,” in Essays in Positive
Economics, 1953; pp. 3-43
http://bit.ly/W9Qu8z
•
Joseph Stiglitz, Nobel Prize Lecture, December 8, 2001
http://www.nobelprize.org/nobel_prizes/economics/laureates/2001/stiglitz-lecture.pdf
Required video
• Russ Roberts, Keynote Address, Mercatus Holiday Dinner, December 7, 2011
http://mercatus.org/podcast/2011/12/07/russ-roberts-delivers-keynote-address-mercatus-center-holidaydinner
Policy topic [read all in advance of the first class]
PUBP720: Managerial Economics and Policy Analysis
•
Spring 2017
Bloomberg Businessweek, “Recession Generation Opts To Rent Not Buy Houses To
Cars,”August 8, 2012
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-08-08/recession-generation-opts-to-rent-not-buy-houses-tocars.html
•
•
New York Times, “Rent or Buy, A Matter of Lifestyle,” May 11, 2011
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/05/11/business/economy/11leonhardt.html
New York Times, “Is it Better to Buy or Rent?”
http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/business/buy-rent-calculator.html
January 28, 9:30am-noon (FH room 602): Math Workshop (JUST FOR MY SECTION
OPTIONAL BUT RECOMMENDED)
Session 2. Utility Functions (February 1)
Policy question: Is happiness measurable?
P&R: Chapters 1-3
Required readings: required readings: Hicks (1933, chapter 1) [see bibliography below]
Session 3. Utility maximization; Income and substitution effects (February 8)
Policy question: Will population growth ever stop?
P&R: Chapter 4 (including appendix)
Required readings: Dasgupta (1995) [see bibliography below] and
• L. T. Cullen, “For a Few, the More Kids the Merrier,” Time, December 6, 2007.
http://www.time.com/time/printout/0,8816,1692041,00.html
•
J. Leland, “From the Housing Market to the Maternity Ward.” New York Times,
February 1, 2008.
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/02/01/us/01birth.html
•
The Economist, “A Tale of Three Islands,” October 22, 2011
http://www.economist.com/node/21533364
Required video:
• Hans Rosling, 200 Countries, 200 Years, 4 Minutes
http://youtu.be/jbkSRLYSojo
Session 4. Problem set #1 grading; Income and substitution effects, continued (February 15)
Policy question: Will population growth ever stop?
P&R: Chapter 4 (including appendix) [cont’d]
problem set #1 due
problem set #2 handed out
Session 5. Problem set #2 grading; Property Rights, Contracting and Bargaining; Production
and the Theory of the Firm (February 22)
Policy question: Is the Internet creating jobs?
P&R: Chapters 6 and 18
Required readings: Coase (1960), Chandler (1992), Barzel and Kochin (1992) and
• Robert Gordon, “Why Innovation Won't Save Us,” The Wall Street Journal,
December 21, 2012.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887324461604578191781756437940.html
•
Philip Evans and Thomas Wurster, Blown to Bits, Harvard Busines School Press,
2000 [excerpt]
PUBP720: Managerial Economics and Policy Analysis
Spring 2017
https://www.bcgperspectives.com/content/articles/strategy_growth_blown_to_bits_book/?chapter=1&pageNumbe
r=2
Required video
• Debate between Tyler Cowen and Eric Brynjolfson, Techonomy, November 25, 2011
http://www.forbes.com/sites/techonomy/2011/11/15/tyler-cowen-vs-erik-brynjolfsson-can-technology-be-societys-economicengine/
problem set #2 due [MAKE A COPY BEFORE HANDING IN]
Session 6. Midterm Exam (March 1)
MIDTERM EXAM IS TAKE HOME. I WILL SEND IT TO YOU BY 6PM ON
WEDNESDAY, 3/1. IT WILL BE DUE BY EMAIL OR FAX (202-330-5478) NO LATER
THAN 9PM ON SATURDAY, MARCH 4.
WE WILL NOT MEET IN PERSON ON THIS DAY
MARCH 8: SPRING BREAK
Session 7: Review of Midterm; Production, costs, and profits (March 15)
Workshop topic: Why did the Soviet Union collapse?
P&R: Chapter 7
Required reading: Argote and Epple (1990)
in-class exercise: learning-by-doing in the manufacture of books
Session 8. Production, costs, and profits (continued); Industry Evolution (March 22)
Policy topics: Why do industries boom and bust?
Required reading:
• James Haltiwanger, “Job Creation and Firm Dynamics in the US,” March 2011
http://users.nber.org/~confer/2011/IPEs11/Haltiwanger_NBER_2011_March25.pdf
Required podcast:
• Julie Shier, “The Golden Era Of D.C. Dining, Or An Age Of Terror?” July 6, 2012
http://wamu.org/programs/metro_connection/12/07/06/the_golden_era_of_dc_dining_or_an_age_of_terror
Session 9. Efficiency and the analysis of competitive markets (March 29)
Policy topic: Can economics end obesity?
P&R: Chapters 2 (again) and 8, 9 and 16
in-class exercise: market game
Required readings:
• David Brooks, “The Behavioral Revolution,” October 28, 2008
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/28/opinion/28brooks.html
•
David Leonhardt, “The Battle Over Taxing Soda,” May 18, 2010
•
George Loewenstein and Peter Ubel, “Economics Behaving Badly,” July 15, 2010
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/05/19/business/economy/19leonhardt.html
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/07/15/opinion/15loewenstein.html
PART III. MARKET FAILURE
Session 10. Monopoly (April 5)
Policy topic: Will US “energy independence” bring down gas prices?
P&R: Chapter 10-12
PUBP720: Managerial Economics and Policy Analysis
Spring 2017
Session 11. Monopoly, continued (April 12)
problem set #3/4 handed out
Session 12. Game theory; Cost-benefit analysis; externalities, public goods; regulation (April
19)
Policy topic: Is there any way to keep traffic from getting worse?
P&R: Chapters 5, 13, 17 and 18
Required readings:
• C. Gorney, “The Urge to Merge.” New York Times, August 3, 2008.
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/08/03/magazine/03traffic-t.html
Session 13. Review of problem set 3/4; Externalities, public goods; regulation; Risk and
uncertainty (April 26)
Policy topic: Is opting-out of health insurance the rational choice?
P&R: Chapters 5, 13, 17 and 18 [cont’d]
• A. Bernaset, “Placing Odds on Your Health (and Its Cost),” New York Times,
December 28, 2013
http://www.nytimes.com/2013/12/29/business/placing-odds-on-your-health-and-its-cost.html
•
C. Conover, “Young People Under Obamacare: Cash Cow For Older Workers,”
Forbes, November 27, 2012
http://www.forbes.com/sites/chrisconover/2012/11/27/young-people-under-obamacare-cash-cow-for-olderworkers/
problem set #3/4 due
Session 14. Efficiency and social welfare; Review of the Course (May 3)
Policy topic: Should we export trash to poor places?
readings: Sen (1999)
P&R: Chapters 5, 13, 17 and 18 [cont’d]
FINAL EXAM—2.5 HOURS, CUMULATIVE (May 10, 7:30–10:15 pm)
IN CLASS—PLEASE BRING BLUE BOOK
https://registrar.gmu.edu/calendars/spring-2017/final-exam/
References
L. Argote and D. Epple. Learning curves in manufacturing. Science, 247:920-924, 1990.
[JSTOR]
Y. Barzel and L. Kochin, 1992. "Ronald Coase on the Nature of Social Cost as a Key to the
Problem of the Firm," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, 94:19-31. [JSTOR]
A. D. Chandler, 1992. “Organizational Capabilities and the Economic History of the Industrial
Enterprise.” Journal of Economic Perspectives, 6(3): 79-100, Summer 1992. [JSTOR]
R. Coase. “The problem of social cost.” Journal of Law and Economics, 3:1-44, 1960. [JSTOR]
P. Dasgupta. “The population problem: Theory and evidence.” Journal of Economic Literature,
XXXIII:1879-1902, December 1995. [JSTOR]
PUBP720: Managerial Economics and Policy Analysis
Spring 2017
J.R. Hicks, Value and Capital, Oxford University Press, 1933. [will email PDF]
A. Sen. “The Possibility of Social Choice.” American Economic Review, 89(3): 349-378, June
1999. [JSTOR]
M. Shubik. “Game Theory: Some Observations.” Yale School of Management Working Paper
#132, 2000. <http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=238964>