To:
Interested Parties
From: GBA Strategies
Date: September 6, 2016
Poisonous Atmosphere for Republicans Endangers GOP Hold on KS-3
The extreme unpopularity of Governor Sam Brownback and Presidential nominee Donald
Trump in Kansas’ 3rd Congressional District puts Republican Congressman Kevin Yoder in
danger of losing a seat he has comfortably won in previous elections. While Yoder still retains a
lead against his lesser-known Democratic opponent, small business owner Jay Sidie, there is a
real path for the challenger that puts this district into play.1
This district is emblematic of Republicans’ struggles this year with college-educated
voters—especially in suburban areas. Kansas’ 3rd CD has a very high share of voters with a
college degree (61 percent); this group has very negative impressions of Donald Trump and even
worse impressions of Brownback, driving dissatisfaction with the Republican brand.
Even in this poisonous environment for Republicans, this election is no slam dunk for
Sidie and the Democrats. Republicans retain a significant registration advantage here, and
Democrats will need to seriously commit the resources needed to overcome that gap as well as
Yoder’s financial edge. But there is no question that Republicans will need to scramble to defend
a district that they considered safe only weeks ago.
•
Republicans still retain solid registration advantage here, but party struggling.
Republicans enjoy a double-digit registration advantage in Kansas’ 3rd Congressional
District (16 points), but registered Republicans are turning their backs on the party. In a
generic matchup for Congress between unnamed candidates, a Democrat actually leads
42 – 39 percent. This is due to voters without a party affiliation choosing the Democrat
by a 41 – 25 percent margin and nearly one in five registered Republicans (18 percent)
backing the Democrat.
•
Governor Brownback’s standing incredibly low—even among Republicans. One of the
most notable findings here is just how damaged Sam Brownback is in the 3rd District. Just
18 percent of likely voters view him favorably, with a staggering 70 percent offering a
negative opinion of their Governor. A majority of registered Republicans (53 percent)
Survey among 400 likely voters in Kansas’ 3rd Congressional District. Interviews were conducted between August
28-30th on land lines and cell phones. Results carry a margin of error of +/- 4.9 percentage points at the 95 percent
confidence interval.
1
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Polling Summary – KS-3
view Brownback unfavorably, with just 31 percent holding a favorable view. Even
among self-identifying Republicans, his standing is negative (39 – 42 percent fav/unfav).
Favorable –
unfavorable
•
•
Total
18 – 70
Registered Democrats
4 – 92
Registered Republicans
31 – 53
No party registration
12 – 80
Self ID’ed Independents
16 – 73
Men
22 – 71
Women
15 – 69
Wyandotte County
12 – 70
Johnson County
20 – 70
Clinton holds solid lead over Trump, who struggles with his base. Trump is really
floundering in this district. He trails Hillary Clinton 45 – 31 percent, with another 17
percent selecting Libertarian Gary Johnson (Green Jill Stein wins 3 percent). Trump is
particularly damaged among Independent voters.
Clinton
Trump
Johnson
Stein
Total
45
31
17
3
Registered Democrats
79
9
7
4
Registered Republicans
22
50
22
2
No party registration
50
18
25
3
Self ID’ed Independents
40
23
28
5
Voters unimpressed with Yoder, still unaware of Sidie. Yoder is well-known to voters in
the 3rd District; eighty-seven percent of likely voters can identify him, but his 32 – 39
percent favorable/unfavorable rating is unimpressive. Self-described Independent voters
view him unfavorably by nearly a 2:1 margin (24 percent fav/44 percent unfav). Just 39
percent say Yoder is doing an “excellent” or “good” job as Congressman, with a 55
percent majority rating his performance as either “just fair” or “poor”.
Democrat Jay Sidie is not nearly as well-known at this point, which is unsurprising since
Sidie has never run for office before and is yet to air television ads for his campaign. Just
2
Polling Summary – KS-3
31 percent can identify him, with 10 percent rating him favorably and 14 percent giving
him an unfavorable rating.
•
Yoder begins race with lead over Sidie, but quickly loses ground. In the initial head-tohead ballot asked before any other information about the candidates, Sidie trails Kevin
Yoder 37 – 49 percent, with Libertarian Steve Hohe winning 8 percent.
Once voters hear balanced positive information about both candidates, Yoder’s lead is cut
dramatically. Sidie trails at this point by a 42 – 46 percent margin (Hohe wins 6 percent).
Sidie gains support among his base of Democrats and eliminates his disadvantage among
voters not registered with either party (turning a 6-point deficit into a 2-point lead). He
makes disproportionate gains with younger women, a group Democrats need to win here.
After balanced negative information on both candidates—including attacks tying Sidie to
Nancy Pelosi and linking Yoder to Governor Brownback, Sidie moves ahead. At the end
of the survey, Sidie leads Yoder 44 – 40 percent (Steve Hohe wins 10 percent). Sidie
continues to build support among Democrats throughout the survey, as they come back
home while completely eroding Yoder’s support among people not registered with either
major party.
Sidie – Yoder – Hohe
Initial vote
Revote
Final vote
Total net
Sidie gain
Total
37 – 49 – 8
42 – 46 – 6
44 – 40 – 10
+15
Registered Democrats
69 – 14 – 4
75 – 19 – 1
81 – 10 – 4
+15
Registered Republicans
17 – 70 – 8
20 – 70 – 5
19 – 66 – 11
+6
No party registration
34 – 40 – 18
37 – 35 – 17
49 – 24 – 18
+31
3