Culture, Religion and Fertility: A
Global View
Lutz, W.
IIASA Working Paper
WP-86-034
July 1986
Lutz, W. (1986) Culture, Religion and Fertility: A Global View. IIASA Working Paper. IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria, WP-86034 Copyright © 1986 by the author(s). http://pure.iiasa.ac.at/2825/
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WORKING PAPER
Culture. Religion. and Fertility:
A Global Mew
WoUgang L u t z
July 1986
WP-86- 3 4
International Institute
for Applied Systems Analysis
NOT FOR QUOTATION
WITHOUT THE PERMISSION
OF THE AUTHOR
Culture. Religion. and Fertility:
A Global View
July 1986
WP-86- 3 4
Working Papers a r e interim r e p o r t s on work of t h e International
Institute f o r Applied Systems Analysis and have received only limited
review. Views or opinions e x p r e s s e d herein d o not necessarily
r e p r e s e n t those of t h e Institute or of its National Member
Organizations.
INTERNATIONAL INSTITUTE FOR APPLIED SYSTEMS ANALYSIS
2361 Laxenburg, Austria
Abstract
This study t r i e s to assess t h e effects of culture and religion on fertility a f t e r
accounting f o r a country's socio-economic standing. Analysis of covariance models
are estimated f o r 128 countries with time-series covering t h e period 1950-75. The
dependent variable is t h e gross reproduction r a t e ; independent variables are t h e
infant mortality rate, a n aggregate indicator of female educational standing, and
G D P p e r caput as w e l l as categorial variables f o r religion and cultural region.
I t t u r n s out t h a t t h e European countries have generally lower fertility than
could b e expected from t h e i r socio-economic standing. In t h e Arabic countries
c u l t u r e and religion tend t o have strong positive effects on fertility. Across cult u r e s Catholicism h a s a fertility-increasing effect but i t is-like t h e e f f e c t of all
religions except Islam-diminishing o v e r time. In c o n t r a s t , t h e effect of c u l t u r e
( a s measured by a regional variable) on t h e level of national fertility has been increasing at t h e expense of socio-economic effects.
- iii -
Culture. Religion. and Fertility:
A Global View
W o l j g a n g Lutz
This p a p e r analyzes t h e effect of religion and c u l t u r e on national fertility leve l s a f t e r accounting f o r t h e societies' socio-economic standing as measured by
selected indicators. Commonsense suggests t h a t such "immaterial" f a c t o r s play a n
important r o l e in p r o c r e a t i o n but scientific l i t e m t u r e on this issue is not v e r y extensive. Mostly t h e analysis h a s been r e s t r i c t e d to bivariate fertility differentials
between ethnic groups or religions in a given country. Only a few studies (e.g.
Kirk 1965 f o r Muslim fertility) t r i e d to explain t h e implications of c e r t a i n religious
attitudes on fertility across countries. Assessments of t h e r e l a t i v e e f f e c t s of religion and c u l t u r e v e r s u s socio-economic development (e.g.
Chaudhury 1984 f o r
Hindu-Muslim differentials on t h e Indian subcontinent) are even less in number.
Under a cross-national perspective, Kuwait t u r n s out to b e one of t h e m o s t obvious cases in which c u l t u m l and religious f a c t o r s are m o r e important than socioeconomic ones in determining t h e level of fertility. Despite t h e genemlly negative
association between fertility and socio-economic development, Kuwait proves to
have both high fertility and a v e r y good economic standing. The r e a s o n f o r t h i s
seems to lie in t h e mentality of t h e Kuwaitis, in t h e i r c u l t u r e and religion. The following analysis will show t h a t similar effects are a l s o prevalent in many o t h e r
countries, although t h e i r influence in fertility levels i s often covered by socioeconomic effects.
The question of t h e determinants of fertility is extremely complex. It involves
f a c t o r s from almost e v e r y a s p e c t of human life: biology, medicine, environmental
conditions, psychology. sociology, cultural anthropology, theology, economics, and
many o t h e r s . Knowledge f r o m t h e s e disciplines can help to understand t h e variations in t h e level of fertility from one individual to a n o t h e r and from one population to a n o t h e r but it cannot fully explain (in a deterministic way) t h e causality
t h a t r e s u l t s in a c e r t a i n number of children.
Scientists have t r i e d t o a p p r o a c h t h i s question from v e r y d i f f e r e n t angles.
Some ask f o r t h e immediate c a u s e s t h a t r e s u l t in a b i r t h . These proximate d e t e r minants involve medical a s p e c t s of fecundity. t h e probabilities of conception f o r
c e r t a i n coital frequencies, c o n t r a c e p t i v e effectiveness, spontaneous a n d induced
abortion, etc. Bongaarts explains t h e t o t a l f e r t i l i t y rate of a population as t h e
,
product of f o u r indices: a m a r r i a g e index C
a contraception index C,, a n index
of abortion C,, and a n index of postpartum infecundability Ci.
An application of
t h i s model to s e v e r a l developing and developed c o u n t r i e s yields a relatively good
f i t to o b s e r v e d f e r t i l i t y rates. In a way t h i s "explains" t h e level of f e r t i l i t y b u t i t
does not help us in o u r s e a r c h f o r t h e "real" r e a s o n of a c e r t a i n f e r t i l i t y p a t t e r n .
Nevertheless, t h e s e findings modify o u r question somewhat: We should not only a s k
why women g e t a c e r t a i n number of c h i l d r e n but a l s o a s k , "Why d o women use cont r a c e p t i o n or a b o r t i o n or d o n o t m a r r y ? " In traditional societies norms and p r a c t i c e s concerning t h e s e proximate determinants are c r u c i a l in explaining differences in fertility levels. In modern societies, however, t h e d e s i r e d family sizes
tend t o dominate childbearing and give t h e proximate determinants a more instrumental role.
The explanation of d e s i r e d family sizes is t h e major goal of economic f e r t i l i t y
analysis. This a p p r o a c h assumes couples to maximize t h e i r personal utility under a
given income, given c o s t s of children, and a given taste. The l i t e r a t u r e on t h i s a p p r o a c h abounds and some r a t h e r sophisticated models h a v e been produced, but
they s h a l l not b e discussed in t h i s p a p e r . Sociologists a r g u e t h a t t h e economic app r o a c h is only v e r y p a r t i a l and d o e s not explain some c r u c i a l f a c t o r s like t a s t e
which, in t h e economic a p p r o a c h , determines t h e s h a p e of t h e utility map. The sociological a p p r o a c h assumes s o c i a l norms t h a t r e g u l a t e t h e proximate d e t e r minants as well as t h e family size d e s i r e s (see e.g.. Freedman 1975). In t h i s view individual behavior i s s e e n as social behavior in r e s p e c t to t h e existing normative
system.
Another scientific dichotomy in t h e field of f e r t i l i t y analysis i s t h e distinction
between micro-level and macro-level a p p r o a c h e s . The macro-level a p p r o a c h obs e r v e s d i f f e r e n c e s between populations and c h a r a c t e r i z e s populations usually by
a v e r a g e values or a g g r e g a t e distributions of c e r t a i n indicators. This allows t o
make cross-national comparisons a n d to identify s t r u c t u r a l d i f f e r e n c e s in t h e soc i e t i e s . The expense f o r i t is t h e loss of information contained in individual variations.
For t h e p r e s e n t cross-cultural study of fertility variations t h e macro-level
approach is clearly more a p p r o p r i a t e because culture cannot b e defined on an individual level. Furthermore, under a global perspective d a t a can only b e obtained
f o r national aggregates. And even in t h a t case many d a t a remain t o b e estimated.
Hence, t h e d a t a underlying t h i s study consist of national time-series data on various demographic and socio-economic indicators covering 128 countries in t h e
world. For 69 countries t h e period 1950-1975 could b e covered (in 5-year intervals), f o r 33 countries t h e period 1960-1975 (5-year intervals), and f o r 32 count r i e s only t h e y e a r 1975. The data s t e m from official UN publications o r had t o b e
estimated.' The selection of indicators f o r o u r model had to b e based on both substantive considerations and t h e availability of data.2
ANALYTICAL FRAMEWORK
Since statistical findings a r e meaningless without consideration of t h e underlying causal model, w e shall spend some time on specifying o u r analytical framework.
Figure 1 depicts a macro-sociological model t h a t t r i e s t o explain t h e
s o u r c e s of variations in fertility levels. The socio-economic indicators t h a t stand
f o r t h e s t r u c t u r e of t h e society do not directly influence fertility, n o r do they ex-
ert a d i r e c t effect on t h e proximate determinants. Money o r education p e r s e does
not make any children and does not inhibit any births. For this reason a n intermediate transformation p r o c e s s must b e assumed t h a t converts socio-economic
conditions into fertility r e l e v a n t behavior. Adopting sociological terminology we
call this a normative transformation. Although we d o not know much about i t s nat u r e and have t o t r e a t i t like a black box with c e r t a i n input and output i t might be
helpful t o assume a very c r u d e s t r u c t u r e . Already Freedman (1963, 1975) distinguished between norms about t h e proximate determinants and norms about family size.
he problem of d a t a a v a i l a b i l i t y is a l s o t h e reason f o r having t i m e - s e r i e s of d i f f e r e n t length.
Generally not more t h a n one point i n t i m e w a s e s t i m a t e d i n t h e time-series. F o r t h e socioeconomic i n d i c a t o r s usually l i n e a r i n t e r p o l a t i o n w a s used. Missing v a l u e s f o r t h e g r o s s reproduct i o n r a t e w e r e e s t i m a t e d by t a k i n g account of t r e n d s i n t h e c r u d e b i r t h r a t e which is available f o r
a l l y e a r s . If t h e d a t a given i n t h e U N S t a t i s t i c a l Yearbooks did not provide f i g u r e s f o r e x a c t l y
t h e y e a r s used in our t i m e - s e r i e s ( y e a r s ending with 0 and 5), t h e i n d i c a t o r s w e r e a d j u s t e d by
l i n e a r i n t e r p o l a t i o n o r e x t r a p o l a t i o n t o r e f e r t o t h e same y e a r s i n all countries. F o r more d e t a i l
on d a t a s o u r c e s and e s t i m a t i o n procedures, s e e L u t z (1980).
he f u l l reasoning of why c e r t a i n i n d i c a t o r s w e r e s e l e c t e d c a n n o t be given h e r e ( s e e L u t z 1980
and 1984).
E N V I R O N M E N T
Health
-
-
Economy
Gross
Domestic
Product
per c a p u t
Infant
Mortality
Female
Educational
Status
+--
-
A
T
Desired
Fami 1y
Size
Sex
Preference
Norms a b o u t
S t a t u s of
Women
Y
Y
\f
Norms a b o u t
Factors affecting
Number of Births
Regulation of
Number of B i r t h s
w i t h i n Union
- Contraception
Abortion, e t c .
Culture
Religion
REGION
RELIGION
--
Norms
about
Marriage
u
-------
-
-
Education
-
--
Regulation
o f Union
Age a t E n t r y
Separation,
etc.
Proximate Determinants
F E R T I L I T Y
F i g u r e 1.
A macro-sociological
model e x p l a i n i n g d i f f e r e n t i a l f e r t i l i t y .
What i s t h e r o l e of c u l t u r e and religion in t h i s p r o c e s s ? On t h e o n e hand,
t h e s e "immaterial" f a c t o r s may have d i r e c t e f f e c t s on t h e norms a b o u t t h e proxi-
m a t e determinants (prohibiting c o n t r a c e p t i o n , f o s t e r e a r l y m a r r i a g e , etc.). On t h e
o t h e r hand, t h e y may b e assumed t o g o v e r n t h e complete p r o c e s s in which t h e
determination of fertility t a k e s place. The mechanisms in which c e r t a i n environmental conditions r e s u l t in c e r t a i n family sizes c a n n o t b e r e g a r d e d as being identic a l across c u l t u r e s and s t a b l e o v e r l o n g e r p e r i o d s of time t h a t include social t r a n sitions.
The mechanisms are themselves s u b j e c t to variation a n d s t r u c t u r a l
c h a n g e s induced by d i f f e r e n t ways to think a n d f e e l a n d b e h a v e in r e s p e c t to t h e
family.
Norms t h a t g o v e r n t h e s e variations-we
might call them meta-norms-
depend mainly on t h e c u l t u r a l and socio-religious climate in a given society. Those
meta-norms a l s o determine t h e e x t e n t to which r e p r o d u c t i v e behavior is governed
by individual rationality ( s e e economic f e r t i l i t y analysis) as opposed to social conformity (see sociological f e r t i l i t y analysis). I n o t h e r words, c u l t u r e a n d religion
d o n o t only determine t h e contents of norms b u t a l s o t h e d e g r e e of t h e i r
comprehensiveness.
How c a n w e t r a n s l a t e t h e s e r a t h e r a b s t r a c t i d e a s into a quantitative model?
S i n c e w e have n o specific knowledge a b o u t t h e mechanisms of t h e normative
transformation w e c a n only define i t in t e r m s of input and output a n d o b s e r v e d
c h a n g e s in t h e input/output r a t i o which c a n b e quantified by means of analysis of
c o v a r i a n c e . Culture and religion c a n b e introduced as c a t e g o r i a l v a r i a b l e s into
t h e model. They may b e assumed t o c a p t u r e r e s i d u a l e f f e c t s on t h e level of fertilit y ( a f t e r accounting f o r socio-economic development) or. in addition to t h a t ,
c h a n g e t h e n a t u r e of t h e relationship between t h e socio-economic i n d i c a t o r s and
f e r t i l i t y (in a s a t u r a t e d model of analysis of c o v a r i a n c e ) .
How c a n w e c a t e g o r i z e c u l t u r e a n d religion? Religion i s a c h a r a c t e r i s t i c t h a t
c a n b e assigned t o e v e r y individual. W e c a n easily determine t h e c h u r c h to which
t h e p e r s o n belongs b u t w e c a n hardly m e a s u r e t h e n a t u r e of h i s / h e r religiousness
within a given c h u r c h . However, t h e l a t t e r i s increasingly important in industrialized societies: In E u r o p e t h e traditional f e r t i l i t y d i f f e r e n t i a l s between Catholics
a n d P r o t e s t a n t s have c l e a r l y diminished or completely d i s a p p e a r e d o v e r t h e last
two decades. In t h e Netherlands, f o r example, t h e 1960 c e n s u s still showed a significantly h i g h e r number of children f o r Catholics t h a n f o r P r o t e s t a n t s (see Schubnell 1973) w h e r e a s t h e 1981 census shows a complete assimilation (see C e n t r a l
Bureau v o o r d e Statistiek 1984). On t h e o t h e r hand a n Austrian f e r t i l i t y s u r v e y ind i c a t e s s t r o n g fertility differentials within t h e Catholic c h u r c h : more traditional-
ly religious women have c l e a r l y higher probabilities to h a v e a t h i r d b i r t h t h a n lib e r a l or indifferent Catholics ( s e e Lutz 1985).
A similar phenomenon a p p e a r s in t h e 'World Fertility S u r v e y s " f o r Belgium,
F r a n c e , G r e a t Britain, Italy. and the USA. c o u n t r i e s t h a t show a s t r o n g positive
c o r r e l a t i o n between t h e intensity of religious feeling within t h e Catholic c h u r c h
and t h e a v e r a g e number of live b i r t h s ( s e e Jones 1982). P r o t e s t a n t s show a much
weaker association between t h e s e t w o v a r i a b l e s . F o r o u r c a t e g o r i a l v a r i a b l e religion t h i s t e l l s u s t h a t a nominal classification by c h u r c h e s only c o v e r s p a r t of t h e
e f f e c t of religion on fertility.
When we t a k e t h e religious affiliation of t h e majority of t h e population as a n
a g g r e g a t e national indicator t h i s accounts even l e s s f o r t h e d e g r e e of religiousness. On t h e o t h e r hand, t h i s a g g r e g a t e indicator r e f l e c t s t h e religious t r a d i t i o n
in which a society s t a n d s and in which t h e c o u n t r y ' s population predominantly
thinks and behaves. A f u r t h e r problem a r i s e s with c o u n t r i e s where t h e majority of
t h e population does not belong t o any c h u r c h . This question was t r e a t e d in two diff e r e n t ways: in some models t h o s e c o u n t r i e s were assigned t h e religion t h a t had
traditionally been dominating; in o t h e r models a n additional c a t e g o r y was c r e a t e d
for c o u n t r i e s without religion.
In c o n t r a s t t o religion, c u l t u r e may not b e assigned t o an individual. I t i s a n
a g g r e g a t e phenomenon which i s mainly established by a common h i s t o r y and may
t r a n s c e n d national boundaries.
For t h e p r e s e n t analysis t h e 128 c o u n t r i e s
r e p r e s e n t e d in t h i s study shall b e grouped into 13 cultural-geographical regions.
F o r t h e lack of o t h e r c l e a r c r i t e r i a geographical proximity-as
defined by global
r e g i o n s t h a t are o f t e n used in h i s t o r y , economy and c u l t u r a l anthropology 3
-served
as a p r o x y for c u l t u r a l proximity. The v a r i a b l e s REGION and RELIGION
a r e of c o u r s e c o r r e l a t e d , but most regions consist of c o u n t r i e s with d i f f e r e n t religions a n d t h e r e is n o religion t h a t a p p e a r s exclusively in o n e region. Hence, t h e
two v a r i a b l e s c a n measure different effects.
3~ l i s t i n g of t h e regions i s given in Table 1. The c l a s s l f l c a t i o n of countries i s a s l i g h t modificeLion of t h a t suggested by Millendorfer and Caspari (1971).
STATISTICAL ANALYSIS
The n a t u r e of t h e d a t a which consist of both time-series and cross-sections
r e q u i r e s some s p e c i a l a t t e n t i o n b e f o r e t h e application of s t a n d a r d multivariate
statistical p r o c e d u r e s . Essentially two problems a r i s e : How should t h e cases (=
d a t a f o r a c e r t a i n y e a r f o r a c e r t a i n country) b e weighted in o r d e r to give t h e app r o p r i a t e weight to e a c h c o u n t r y , a n d how c a n w e a c c o u n t f o r t h e f a c t t h a t t h e
time-series d a t a within e a c h c o u n t r y are presumably c o r r e l a t e d ?
In choosing a p p r o p r i a t e weights two d i f f e r e n t a s p e c t s must b e considered:
Shall e a c h country b e t r e a t e d as a n individual o b s e r v a t i o n i r r e s p e c t i v e of its size
or shall i t b e weighted by t h e size of i t s population; a n d should we compensate f o r
t h e f a c t t h a t t h e time-series h a v e d i f f e r e n t lengths or not? The combination of
t h e s e two a s p e c t s yields f o u r d i f f e r e n t weighting schemes, t h e selection of which
depends on t h e kind of question a s k e d in t h e analysis.
Considering Population Size?
Yes
No
Make c o u n t r i e s equal
in r e s p e c t t o numbers
of v e a r s o b s e r v e d ?
No
Yes
A
C
B
D
For pooling cross-sectional and time-series d a t a s e v e r a l methods h a v e been
suggested in t h e l i t e r a t u r e . However, a l l combinations of t h e s e two a s p e c t s are eit h e r cross-sectional s t u d i e s extended t o include time-series d a t a or time-series
with some cross-sectional extensions (see I n t r i l i g a t o r 1978). In o u r case t h e
cross-sectional a s p e c t i s c l e a r l y dominant. Hence, in t h e s t a t i s t i c a l analysis we
assume t h a t e a c h g r o u p of culturally similar c o u n t r i e s h a s a c e r t a i n additive eff e c t specific f o r t h i s region. In some models w e a l s o allow f o r i n t e r a c t i o n s between
regional e f f e c t s a n d o t h e r e x p l a n a t o r y variables.
The original d a t a set p r o v i d e s eight social a n d economic indicators t h a t c a n
b e viewed as c o v a r i a t e s of f e r t i l i t y , namely male and female i l l i t e r a c y , p e r c e n t a g e
of a g i r l c o h o r t attending s e c o n d a r y school, infant mortality r a t e , female life expectancy at b i r t h , daily p r o t e i n i n t a k e p e r c a p u t , g r o s s domestic p r o d u c t p e r
c a p u t , and t h e p r o p o r t i o n of t h e population in nonagricultural activities. F o r t h e
p r e s e n t study of c u l t u r a l a n d religious f a c t o r s effecting f e r t i l i t y we have t o rest r i c t ourselves t o a few s e l e c t e d socio-economic c o v a r i a t e s . This r e s t r i c t i o n i s
a l s o necessary from a s t a t i s t i c a l point of view b e c a u s e of n e a r t o p e r f e c t collinearity of some of t h e i n d i c a t o r s . A t t h i s point n o r e f e r e n c e s c a n b e made to t h e
v e r y extensive l i t e r a t u r e o n t h e causal relationships between f e r t i l i t y a n d various
socio-economic indicators.
In t h e p r e s e n t c o n t e x t t h r e e indicators seem t o b e a p p r o p r i a t e . one f o r female educational s t a t u s , o n e f o r economic conditions, and o n e f o r t h e health sector
of t h e society. Bivariate analysis of t h e s e indicators a n d f e r t i l i t y r e v e a l s int e r e s t i n g nonlinearities.
In t h e b i v a r i a t e s c a t t e r p l o t s (see F i g u r e s 2-5) e v e r y
case i s assigned equal weight (= weight A). The unbroken line gives t h e r e g r e s s i o n
line calculated f o r t h i s b i v a r i a t e association. The b r o k e n lines r e p r e s e n t r e g r e s sion lines f o r two subgroups of cases: t h o s e with g r o s s r e p r o d u c t i o n rates a b o v e
a n d below 2.0. F u r t h e r m o r e , t h e horizontal a x i s (= independent v a r i a b l e ) w a s c u t
into t e n i n t e r v a l s of equal width. Based on t h i s subdivision a multiple r e g r e s s i o n
w a s calculated with nine dummy v a r i a b l e s (standing f o r t h e c a t e g o r i e s ) as independ e n t v a r i a b l e s (Dummy-Regression I). The given coefficients s t a n d f o r t h e deviations from t h e r e f e r e n c e c a t e g o r y . To i l l u s t r a t e possible nonlinearity in t h e r e l a tionship a line w a s drawn t h a t connects t h e means of t h e ten subgroups. A s t a t i s t i c a l test of nonlinearity c a n b e performed by comparing t h e R 2 of t h e simple
o v e r a l l r e g r e s s i o n t o t h e R 2 of a n o t h e r multiple r e g r e s s i o n t h a t includes t h e independent v a r i a b l e itself in addition t o t h e nine group-specific dummy v a r i a b l e s
(Dummy Regression 11). Finally, t h e mark
(7 )
indicates t h e turning point of a
logistic r e p r e s s i o n calculated f o r t h e b i v a r i a t e association.
F o r a l l v a r i a b l e s studied in Figures 2 t o 5 t h e relationships are significantly
nonlinear-for
GDP and female illiteracy much more s o t h a n f o r infant mortality
a n d female enrollment in s e c o n d a r y schools. In r e s p e c t t o p e r c a p u t income count r i e s are v e r y heavily c o n c e n t r a t e d in t h e lowest c a t e g o r y , i.e., with incomes of
l e s s t h a n 550 constant 1960 U S dollars. In t h e second c a t e g o r y t h e mean i s a l r e a d y
more than one d a u g h t e r p e r mother l e s s t h a n in t h e lowest income group. The
cases in t h e u p p e r r i g h t c o r n e r with high f e r t i l i t y and v e r y high income s t a n d f o r
some Arabic oil exporting c o u n t r i e s . This i l l u s t r a t e s t h e f a c t t h a t h i g h e r income
d o e s not automatically lead t o lower f e r t i l i t y o n t h e a g g r e g a t e . Some of t h e mult i v a r i a t e models in f a c t yield positive coefficients f o r income.
A logarithmic
transformation of GDP makes t h e relationship significantly more l i n e a r . F o r t h i s
r e a s o n GDPLN will b e t h e v a r i a b l e used as c o v a r i a t e in o u r study.
Female educational s t a t u s h a s traditionally b e e n r e g a r d e d as o n e of t h e k e y
v a r i a b l e s associated with declining f e r t i l i t y . Not only d o e s more education l e a d t o
a c h a n g e in t h e woman's own values, i t also s t r e n g t h e n s t h e woman's position to g e t
only t h e number of children s h e wants b e c a u s e t h e woman's own d e s i r e i s mostly
lower t h a n t h e husband's and t h e kin g r o u p ' s e x p e c t a t i o n s in traditional societies.
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When analyzing a cross-section of industrialized and less developed c o u n t r i e s w e
a l s o have difficulties in choosing a n a p p r o p r i a t e indicator f o r female educational
status.
In industrialized c o u n t r i e s illiteracy obviously i s not v e r y indicative,
whereas in t h e bulk of LDC's, secondary school enrollment for g i r l s i s not a sensit i v e indicator. To overcome t h i s measurement problem t h e two v a r i a b l e s are combined t o a n indicator t h a t i s responsive t o variations a t h i g h e r and lower s t a g e s of
development. Let ILF b e t h e p e r c e n t a g e of female and ILM t h e p e r c e n t a g e of male
illiteracy and SEF t h e p e r c e n t a g e of a g i r l of t h e relevant a g e group enrolled in
secondary schools, then t h e new a g g r e g a t e indicator of women's r e l a t i v e educational s t a t u s AFES is defined as AFES = ILF+(ILF-1LM)SEF. This new indicator
shows a r a t h e r linear relationship t o fertility, t h e correlation coefficient being
0.8.
Infant mortality is r e g a r d e d t o b e r a t h e r sensitive t o improvements in t h e
health c a r e system and changes in p a r e n t a l child c a r e p r a c t i c e s . T h e r e are d i r e c t
causal relationships between infant mortality and fertility through child r e p l a c e ment strategies, s h o r t e r b i r t h intervals d u e t o truncation of breastfeeding and
o t h e r mechanisms. But i t is a l s o plausible t o assume an association between those
two variables via t h e often observed simultaneousness of changes in child c a r e
p r a c t i c e s and t h e onset of conscious family planning.
Tables 1-3 give t h e r e s u l t s from various analysis of covariance models. They
show t h e e f f e c t s of RELIGION and REGION on t h e g r o s s reproduction r a t e a f t e r
having accounted f o r t h e e f f e c t of t h e t h r e e covariates IM, GDPLN, and AFES. The
r e s u l t s a r e presented in t h e f o r m of a multiple classification analysis (MCA) table.
The f i r s t column gives t h e unadjusted deviation of t h e c a t e g o r y means f r o m t h e
grand mean. The t h r e e remaining columns give t h e deviations which were adjusted
f o r t h e effects of t h e t h r e e c o v a r i a t e s and (in t h e l a s t column) a l s o f o r t h e o t h e r
main effect considered. The E t a and t h e Betas r e p r e s e n t t h e standardized r e g r e s sion coefficients of bivariate (11) and multivariate
(0) r e g r e s s i o n s of f e r t i l i t y on
REGION and RELIGION. Hence, they indicate t h e overall effect of t h e given f a c t o r
on t h e level of fertility. Since t h e c o v a r i a t e s were e n t e r e d into t h e equation bef o r e t h e main effects, t h e i r coefficients do not change. The effects of infant mortality and female educational s t a t u s a r e highly significant in c a s e of using weight
D. For t h e unweighted analysis (A), income p e r caput also h a s a significant effect
on t h e level of fertility. The signs all go in t h e expected direction.
Table 1.
Analysis of covariance, weighting scheme B, 128 countries,
1950-1975.
Dependent variable:
Gross Reproduction Rate
Grand Mean = 1.96
Unadjusted
Deviation ri
Adjusted for
covariates
Deviation 0
(
Adjusted for
covariates
Deviation 0
Adjusted for other
factor and covariates
0
Deviation
REGION
1 North America
2 Oceania
3 Europe -Northwest
4 Europe -south
5 Europe -East and Soviet Union
6 Asia-West
7 Africa -North and certain
Arabic countries
8 Central America and
Southeast America
9 Southamerica -West
10 East Asia
11 Central and South Asia
12 Central Africa -North
13 Central Afrlca -South
RELIGION
1 Catholic Christians
2 Protestant Christians
3 Orthodox Christians
4 Islam
5 East-Aslan Religions
6 Various Natural Religions
.10
-.69
-.63
1.17
.O e
1.05
-73
Two-way
interactions
Group-Religion"
COVARIATES
IF! Infant tkrtality Rate
GDPLN L q of Gross Domestic Product p. caplta
AFES Aggregate Indicator of Female Educational
Status (neg.)
"significant .99 probability level
Table 2.
Analysis of covariance, unweighted (scheme A), 128 countries,
1950-1975.
Dependent v a r i a b l e :
G r o s s R e p r o d u c t i o n Rate
G r a n d Mean = 2 . 3 1
Adjusted for
covariates
Deviation
Unadjusted
Deviation
Mjusted for
covariates
Deviation 6
Adjusted f o r other
factor and covariates
Deviation
6
I
REGION
1 N o r t h America
2 Oceania
3 Europe Northwest
4 Europe South
5 Europe - E a s t and S o v i e t Union
6 A s i a West
7 A f r i c a North and c e r t a i n
Arabic countries
8 C e n t r a l America a n d
S o u t h e a s t America
9 Southamerica -West
10 East Asia
11 C e n t r a l a n d S o u t h A s i a
12 Central Africa -North
13 Central Africa -South
-
-
-
RELIGION
1 Catholic Christians
2 Protestant Christians
3 Orthodox C h r i s t i a n s
4 Islam.
5 East-Asian Religions
6 Various Natural Religions
-.Oi
-.@9
-.95
.8E
-. 0 1
.57
.70
Two-way
interactions
Group-Religion"
COVARIATES
I M Infant Mortality Rate
GDPLN
o f G r o s s D o m e s t i c P r o d u c t p. c a p i t a
AFES A g g r e g a t e I n d i c a t o r o f F e m a l e E d u c a t i o n a l
S t a t u s (neg.)
"significant
.99 p r o b a b i l i t y l e v e l
Table 3 .
Analysis of covariance, weighting scheme B , 128 countries,
1975 only.
Dependent v a r i a b l e :
Gross Reproduction Rate
G r a n d Mean = 2.14
Unadjusted
hviation q
1
Adjusted f o r
c o v a r i a tes
~eviation 8
1
Adjusted f o r
covariates
~eviation 8
1
Adjusted f o r o t h e r
f a c t o r s and c o v a r i a t e s
Deviation
8
REG I ON
1 N o r t h America
2 Oceania
3 Europe -Northwest
4 Europe South
5 E u r o p e - E a s t a n d S o v i e t Union
6 A s i a -West
7 A f r i c a - N o r t h and c e r t a i n
Arabic countries
8 C e n t r a l America and
S o u t h e a s t America
9 Southamerica -West
10 E a s t Asia
11 C e n t r a l a n d S o u t h A s i a
12 C e n t r a l Africa -North
13 Central Africa -South
-
RELIGION
1
2
3
4
Catholic Christians
Protestant Christians
Ortbaax Christians
1s1m
5 East-Asian
Religrons
6 Varlous Natural Religions
7 Atheists
-.05
-1.22
-.30
.99
.42
.94
-.4i
.79
Two-way
interactions
Group-Religion"
COVARIATES
IK I n f a n t M o r t a l i t y R a t e
GDPIA Lg o f G r o s s D o m e s t i c P r o d u c t p . c a p i t a
AFES A g g r e g a t e I n d i c a t o r o f Female E d u c a t i o n a l
S t a t u s (neg.)
'*sipificant
.99 p r o b a b i l i t y l e v e l
In addition to t h e nine models p r e s e n t e d h e r e v a r i o u s o t h e r models h a v e b e e n
specified a n d calculated taking t h e time dimension into a c c o u n t a n d modifying t h e
religious c a t e g o r i e s . Table 4 gives a n analysis of r e s i d u a l s o v e r time f o r t h r e e
selected countries.
The r e s u l t s p r e s e n t e d in t h e t a b l e s a n d some f u r t h e r calculations with slightly
modified models yield a n a b u n d a n c e of s p e c i f i c r e s u l t s . The following p a r a g r a p h s
t r y to s t r u c t u r i z e a n d summarize t h e major findings:
1.
In all models t h e r e are significant e f f e c t s of both REGION a n d RELIGION on
f e r t i l i t y , e v e n a f t e r controlling t h e socio-economic standing of t h e c o u n t r y .
This i s also t r u e when REGION a n d RELIGION are c o n s i d e r e d simultaneously
a n d when m o r e socio-economic i n d i c a t o r s t h a n t h e t h r e e given c o v a r i a t e s are
included as c o n t r o l s .
2.
D i f f e r e n t methods of weighting make a d i f f e r e n c e in t h e r e s u l t s . Weighting
g e n e r a l l y c h a n g e s only t h e magnitude of t h e e f f e c t a n d n o t i t s d i r e c t i o n . The
e x p l a n a t o r y values of t h e models ( a s measured by R 2 ) are h i g h e r when count r i e s are weighted by t h e i r population sizes. The values of R 2 r a n g e from .7
to .9.
In t h e following w e will r e f e r to t h e models in Table 1 t h a t u s e weighting scheme B
(taking a c c o u n t of population size).
3.
The E u r o p e a n c o u n t r i e s h a v e generally lower f e r t i l i t y t h a n could b e e x p e c t e d
from t h e i r socio-economic standing. This judgement i s b a s e d on t h e global association between f e r t i l i t y and socio-economic development. In o t h e r words,
u n d e r global s t a n d a r d s E u r o p e a n c u l t u r e seems to h a v e a fertility-depressing
e f f e c t . This i s more so in north-western E u r o p e t h a n in s o u t h e r n E u r o p e .
4.
F o r North America, o n t h e o t h e r hand, t h e l e v e l of f e r t i l i t y i s p r e t t y well e x plained b y i t s socio-economic standing. P u t in a d i f f e r e n t way, t h e r e i s no
strong cultural effect.
5.
A r a b i c c o u n t r i e s in w e s t e r n Asia a n d n o r t h e r n Africa h a v e t o g e t h e r with t h e
s o u t h e r n p a r t of c e n t r a l Africa t h e h i g h e s t f e r t i l i t y o b s e r v e d . F o r w e s t e r n
Asia which includes many high f e r t i l i t y oil-exporting c o u n t r i e s , f e r t i l i t y i s
h i g h e r by almost o n e d a u g h t e r p e r woman t h a n should b e e x p e c t e d from t h e
level of socio-economic development. A s s t a t e d b e f o r e , t h e a n s w e r f o r t h i s
lies in t h e traditional Islamic c u l t u r e in t h o s e c o u n t r i e s .
In e a s t e r n Asia t h e socio-economic i n d i c a t o r s a l o n e cannot e x p l a i n t h e relatively l o w Ievel of f e r t i l i t y . b u t t h e c u l t u r a l a n d religious v a r i a b l e s t o g e t h e r
can.
In c e n t r a l Africa t h e v e r y high level of f e r t i l i t y c a n b e explained to a l a r g e
e x t e n t by t h e g e n e r a l l y low level of development, b u t still c u l t u r e a n d religion
h a v e a n incremental e f f e c t on t h e e x p l a n a t o r y value.
If a nation consists predominately of Roman Catholic Christians, t h e l e v e l of
f e r t i l i t y t e n d s to b e well a b o v e a v e r a g e . This e f f e c t becomes e v e n s t r o n g e r
o n c e w e c o n t r o l t h e c o v a r i a t e s a n d t h e c u l t u r a l v a r i a b l e REGION. In o t h e r
words, o n c e t h e fertility-depressing
c u l t u r a l e f f e c t s of E u r o p e a n d t h e
fertility-increasing e f f e c t s of being p a r t of t h e Latin American c u l t u r e , etc.,
are controlled for, t h e positive e f f e c t of Catholicism o n f e r t i l i t y i s e v e n r e i n forced.
A similar e f f e c t i n t o t h e o t h e r d i r e c t i o n c a n b e o b s e r v e d f o r t h e East-Asian
religions t h a t tend to d e p r e s s f e r t i l i t y a f t e r controlling for t h e o t h e r f a c t o r s .
P r o t e s t a n t c o u n t r i e s h a v e t h e lowest f e r t i l i t y on a v e r a g e ; b u t a f t e r holding
o t h e r effects c o n s t a n t t h e negative influence of Protestantism on f e r t i l i t y v i r tually d i s a p p e a r s . In t h e case of weighting scheme A w h e r e t h e E u r o p e a n
c o u n t r i e s dominate t h e P r o t e s t a n t g r o u p , t h e negative effect r e m a i n s v e r y
significant, however.
A s could b e e x p e c t e d , Islam h a s a heavily positive e f f e c t on f e r t i l i t y in most
models. Kirk (1965) identified t h r e e major r e a s o n s f o r this: subordination of
women, emphasis on sexuality, a n d m a r r i a g e institutions. Only if both REGION
and RELIGION are i n t r o d u c e d i n t o t h e equation, t h e positive effect of t h e
Islamic c o u n t r i e s i s mainly c a p t u r e d by t h e REGION c a t e g o r i e s of w e s t e r n Asia
a n d n o r t h e r n Africa which include only Islamic nations.
Although c o u n t r i e s with n a t u r a l religions h a v e f e r t i l i t y levels f a r a b o v e a v e r a g e , no significant e f f e c t of religion r e m a i n s when t h e i r socio-economic standing is t a k e n into a c c o u n t .
Two-way i n t e r a c t i o n s between REGION a n d RELIGION are significant u n d e r all
weighting schemes. This means t h a t t h e p a t t e r n in which religion a f f e c t s f e r tility i s d i f f e r e n t in d i f f e r e n t c u l t u r a l r e g i o n s , a n d v i c e v e r s a .
1 4 . An a l t e r n a t i v e classification of c o u n t r i e s by religion, namely t h e inclusion of
a c a t e g o r y f o r c o u n t r i e s without religion, d o e s not c h a n g e t h e r e s u l t s significantly. The new c a t e g o r y seems t o b e r e l a t i v e l y n e u t r a l in r e s p e c t to f e r t i l i t y
a f t e r t h e regional a n d socio-economic f a c t o r s h a v e been accounted f o r .
15. S e p a r a t e analyses f o r individual y e a r s in t h e time s e r i e s generally indicate
t h a t o v e r time t h e influence of c u l t u r e as measured by REGION i n c r e a s e d at
t h e e x p e n s e of socio-economic v a r i a b l e s . The additional e f f e c t of RELIGION
o n t o p of t h e s e o t h e r f a c t c r s a l s o c l e a r l y diminished o v e r time. This s u p p o r t s
t h e findings from s e v e r a l o t h e r national s t u d i e s t h a t religious f e r t i l i t y diff e r e n t i a l s are d e c r e a s i n g o v e r time. Only in t h e Islamic world t h e r e l a t i v e eff e c t of religion h a s i n c r e a s e d .
16. The analysis of r e s i d u a l s suggests t h a t d e s p i t e t h e high p r o p o r t i o n of varia n c e explained, country-specific f e a t u r e s p e r t a i n .
A s shown in Table 4 f o r
t h r e e selected c o u n t r i e s , t h e longitudinal p a t t e r n of r e s i d u a l s a l s o allows t o
assess a country's f e r t i l i t y t r e n d s r e l a t i v e to its socio-economic standing and
t h e level of f e r t i l i t y in culturally similar c o u n t r i e s of t h e same region. Aust r i a , f o r example, w a s in 1955-59 well below t h e e x p e c t e d value until i t caught
up with a relatively l a t e baby boom.
Many of t h e r e s u l t s s t a t e d a b o v e depend o n t h e p e r s p e c t i v e t a k e n and o n t h e
weight assigned t o c o u n t r i e s which in consequence determines t h e s t a n d a r d s r e l a t i v e to which e f f e c t s are a s s e s s e d . But t h e r e remains no doubt t h a t c u l t u r e and religion are f a c t o r s t h a t m a t t e r and should b e considered in e v e r y comprehensive
study of f e r t i l i t y determinants.
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