ERD TECHNICAL NOTE SERIES NO. 3
ECONOMICS AND RESEARCH DEPARTMENT
Measuring
Willingness to Pay
for Electricity
Peter Choynowski
July 2002
Asian Development Bank
ERD Technical Note No. 3
Measuring Willingness to Pay for Electricity
Peter Choynowski
July 2002
Peter Choynowski is an Economist with the Economic Analysis and Operations Support Division of the Economics and
Research Department, Asian Development Bank.
Asian Development Bank
P.O. Box 789
0980 Manila
Philippines
2002 by Asian Development Bank
July 2002
ISSN 1655-5236
The views expressed in this paper are those of the author(s)
and do not necessarily reflect the views or policies of the
Asian Development Bank.
Foreword
The ERD Technical Note Series deals with conceptual, analytical, or
methodological issues relating to project/program economic analysis or statistical
analysis. Papers in the Series are meant to enhance analytical rigor and quality in
project/program preparation and economic evaluation, and improve statistical data
and development indicators. ERD Technical Notes are prepared mainly, but not
exclusively, by staff of the Economics and Research Department, their consultants,
or resource persons primarily for internal use, but may be made available to
interested external parties.
Table of Contents
Abstract
v
I.
Introduction
1
II
Derivation of the Electricity Demand Function
A. The Household Demand for Electricity
B. The Firm’s Demand for Electricity
C. A Functional Form for the Demand for Electricity
3
3
5
6
III. An Illustrative Example
7
IV. Conclusions
8
Appendix
9
References
12
Abstract
The measurement of willingness to pay for electricity relies critically on a
reliable estimate of the demand for electricity function. However, standard
microeconomic theory falls short in providing a plausible framework within
which such estimation could be made, at least in the case of electricity.
Empirical work to date generally tends to assume that the demand for
electricity has no satiation point. Many electricity demand models assume a
constant price elasticity, which implies infinite demand at low prices. Many
demand models also do not allow for the possibility of goods at zero price
because the price variable is in logarithmic form for which zero is undefined.
The purpose of this technical note is to propose a plausible functional form
for the demand for electricity. The proposed functional form is consistent
with two properties of electricity demand functions for households and
firms, namely, the negative relationship between price and quantity, and the
finiteness of demand at zero price. The technical note also demonstrates that
this functional form of the demand function leads to easily estimable
economic benefits of electricity.
I.
Introduction
Measuring willingness to pay for electricity relies critically on a reliable estimate of the
demand for electricity function. However, standard microeconomic theory falls short in providing a
plausible framework within which such estimation could be made, at least in the case of electricity.
Empirical work to date generally tends to assume that the demand for goods has no satiation point.
Many electricity demand models (for a survey of some of these models, see Taylor 1975 and Westley
1989) assume a constant price elasticity, which implies the double logarithmic functional form.1 It
also implies infinite demand at low prices. It is intuitive that, even at zero price, the demand for
some goods will be finite. Many single equation and demand system models also do not allow for
the possibility of goods at zero price because the price variable is in logarithmic form for which zero
is undefined. The main examples of these models are Stone’s (1954) double logarithmic demand
model; Theil’s (1965) and Barten’s (1966) Rotterdam model; the translog model of Christensen,
Jorgensen, and Lau (1975), and the almost ideal demand system of Deaton and Muellbauer (1980b).
Nan and Murry (1992) developed a demand model that overcomes some of the theoretical
shortcomings of the double logarithmic functional form identified by Deaton and
Muellbauer(1980a), but it still employs the logarithmic price term. Although the use of a logarithmic
price variable in econometric studies of electricity demand has little a priori justification, recent
studies, for example Haas and Schipper (1998) and Beenstock, Goldin, and Nabot (1999),
demonstrate the continuing popularity and use of this variable.
Empirical studies have typically treated electricity as just one good of many consumed by
households. Strictly speaking, this is correcthouseholds do consume electricity. But the demand
for electricity is a derived demand and is essentially an input into the production of services from a
stock of electricity-consuming equipment in the household. Electricity is never consumed on its own
and, moreover, cannot be stored in an economical way. Therefore, there should be no reason to
assume that electricity enters directly into a household’s utility function. Rather it should be expected
that it enters indirectly through the user cost associated with the services produced by the electricityconsuming equipment. Consequently, the demand for electricity function cannot be derived using
the normal constrained utility maximization procedure.
In practice, electricity demand models are seldom employed for measuring willingness to pay
because sufficient amounts of data are not available, especially in developing countries. The usual
approach is to calculate consumer surplus (CS) on the basis of a linear electricity demand function.2
Consumer surplus is estimated as:
CS = 1 2 ( p Α − pΒ ) (q Β − q Α )
(1)
The linear demand function is often selected because only two data points are needed to
estimate its parameters. One data point is the price and quantity of an alternative source of energy
Deaton and Muellbauer (1980a) have shown that the double logarithmic demand function is not consistent with
consumer theory because it violates the adding up condition.
2 Consumer surplus plus revenue equals gross economic benefit (or willingness to pay) by definition. See Figure 1 for a
graphical representation.
1
1
ERD Technical Note No. 3
July 2002
consumed (converted to electrical units), for example kerosene, in an area where electricity is not
available (point A in Figure 1). Data on the quantity of the alternative source of energy consumed is
usually obtained from surveys while the price is obtained from market data. The other data point is
the quantity of electricity consumed by the representative household and the corresponding average
price paid for the consumption (point B in Figure 1). This information is readily available from the
utility supplying the electricity.
Figure 1. A Linear Demand Function for Electricity
p
pA
A
B
pB
qB
qA
q
From a mathematical perspective, a straight line closely approximates a curve for small
changes in the variables and therefore the use of a linear demand function is justified. More often
than not, however, the change in the price variable in the case of estimating willingness to pay for
electricity is not small and the straight-line assumption does not hold. Therefore, to reflect curvature
in the demand function, the practice has been to modify equation (1) to:
CS = (: (c + :)) ( p Α − p Β ) (q Β − q Α )
(2)
where c is a proportionality factor greater or equal to unity. The parameter c may be calculated with a
third data point. Unfortunately, a third data point is rarely available and consequently an assumption
is usually made regarding the value of this parameter. Values in the range of 1.5 to 3 are often used.
In the case of equation (1), c = 1.
There are two principal weaknesses of this approach to measuring willingness to pay. First,
there is no theoretical basis for the linear demand function and the use of it is essentially a matter of
convenience. Second, the assignment of a value to the parameter c is often arbitrary and leads to an
arbitrary valuation of consumer surplus.
The arbitrary nature of the linear demand function, the shortcomings in applying constrained
utility maximization to derive a demand for electricity function, and the need for a demand function
that allows satiation indicate that an alternate approach to deriving the demand for electricity
function is needed. The purpose of this technical note is to discuss such an approach.
2
Measuring Willingness to Pay for Electricity
II.
A.
Derivation of the Electricity Demand Function
The Household Demand for Electricity
In deriving the demand for electricity function, one begins with an individual’s or
household’s utility function U such as
(
U = U q g 1 ,..., q g m , q s 1 ,..., q s n
)
where q gi and q sj are quantities of goods and services consumed, respectively. When the utility
function is maximized subject to a budget constraint, ordinary demand functions for each good and
service may be derived. These demand functions relate the quantity of the good or service
demanded to income and all prices (in the case of goods) and user costs (in the case of services). Let
us assume a single composite piece of electricity-consuming equipment to represent all such
equipment to simplify exposition. The demand function for the services from this stock of
equipment q se will be
(
q se = f y , p se , a `
)
(3)
where y is income, pse is the user cost of qse, and po is a vector of all other prices and user costs. For a
normal good, the user cost is negatively related to the quantity demanded, that is, df/dpse < 0.
Since the user cost pse, of which the electricity price is a component, is negatively related to
the quantity of services demanded from electricity-consuming equipment, it may be shown that the
electricity price is also negatively related to the quantity of electricity demanded. The user cost and
the price of electricity are positively related because the electricity price is a component of user cost.
Thus,
( )
p se = g p e
(4)
where dg/dpe > 0 and pe is the price of electricity. The quantity of electricity demanded qe is also
positively related to the quantity of services from electricity-consuming equipment because of
technology. Thus,
( )
q e = h q se
(5)
where dh/dqse > 0. Substituting equation (4) into (3) and then substituting the result into equation (5),
one gets
( ( ( )))
qe = h f g pe
(6)
Differentiating equation (6) with respect to pe, one gets
3
ERD Technical Note No. 3
July 2002
(
)(
)(
dq e dp e = dh dq se df dp se dg dp e
)
and thus dqe/dpe < 0, that is, the electricity demand function is negatively sloped with respect to its
price.
Figure 2. A Household Demand Function for
the Services of Electricity-consuming Equipment
Pse
*
pse
(pe=p )
A
A
Pse
(pe=0)
B
B
qse
A
qse
B
qse
The demand for electricity should also have an upper bound. For a given stock of electricityconsuming equipment, the amount of electricity that is consumed is determined by the user cost of
electricity-consuming equipment, composed of the electricity price and other costs such as capital
depreciation, maintenance, etc. This is represented by point A in Figure 2. At point A, the user cost
is pseA where the subsumed electricity price is pe = p* and corresponds to quantity qseA. If the
electricity price is allowed to fall to zero, the user cost will also fall, but only to pseB because the cost
of other components has not changed. Electricity demand will increase by some proportion of
pe
Figure 3. An Electricity Demand Function
qemax
4
qe
Measuring Willingness to Pay for Electricity
qseB – qseA, depending on the relationship between the electricity-consuming equipment and the
amount of electricity needed to power it. As long as no other components of the user cost change,
the demand for electricity cannot be increased and thus an upper bound on electricity demand vis-àvis the electricity price has been reached.
Thus, a household electricity demand function would resemble the curve in Figure 3. The
maximum amount of electricity that can be possibly consumed, qemax, depends on the stock of
electricity-consuming equipment. This stock, in turn, depends on the consumer’s income, the prices
of other energy forms, and consumer tastes and preferences.
B.
The Firm’s Demand for Electricity
The demand for electricity by firms follows a similar pattern. Microeconomic theory shows
that the demand for an input by a firm, such as electricity, is negatively related to its price. It can also
be shown that there exists an upper bound for the demand for electricity. The demand for a good
qgA produced by firms is determined by its market and is a function of the marginal cost of
production, that is, its price, pgA (point A in Figure 4). As in the case of the household, marginal cost
subsumes the price of electricity, pe = p*.
If the electricity price were to fall to zero, the market price of the good would fall by an
equivalent amount, ceteris paribus. Thus, the amount of the good demanded would rise (point B in
Figure 4). In response, the demand for electricity would rise by a proportional amount. Thus, as in
the household case, as long as no other components of the production cost change, the demand for
electricity cannot be increased and an upper bound on electricity demand vis-à-vis the electricity
price is reached. The form of the electricity demand function would therefore be similar to the curve
in Figure 3.
Figure 4. A Demand Function for a Firm’s Output
pg
A
pg (pe=p*)
A
B
Pg (pe=0)
B
qg
qg
A
B
5
qg
ERD Technical Note No. 3
July 2002
C.
A Functional Form for the Demand for Electricity
The above exposition leads to a functional form for the household demand for electricity. If
it may be assumed that the demand for electricity function is smooth and continuous, then the class
of functions that resembles the curve in Figure 3, that is, one that includes an intercept on the
abscissa, passes through any other feasible point in (qe,pe)-space, and is not a straight line, is
ln q e = α + βρ e
(7)
where ln is the natural logarithm and α >0, β < 0. The price variable is in real terms. The upper
bound of electricity demand (when the price is zero) is given by eα (Figure 5) and β is the price semielasticity of demand. The price elasticity is given by
(
)(
)
η p = dq e dp e p e q e = βp e
(8)
which varies with the price level, as may be expected. This functional form also has the desirable
property that willingness to pay rises exponentially as demand falls, as suggested by economic
theory. The parameter α depends on income, prices of other energy forms, and other variables.
Figure 5. Semilog Demand Function for Electriciy
pe
po
p1
qo
q1
e
qe
In the case of the firm, the electricity demand function may be derived algebraically under
the assumption that the production function is weakly separable and the marginal product of
electricity falls to zero over a range of feasible output levels. The production function that satisfies
these conditions is
(
)
( )
y = q e ln q e − α − : β + g x o
(9)
where y is output, xo is a vector of other inputs into the production process, and α >0, β < 0. Solving
the profit maximization problem results in the same demand for electricity function given in
equation (7).
6
Measuring Willingness to Pay for Electricity
This functional form (7) readily lends itself to calculating the economic benefit (EB) of
electricity. The economic benefit is simply the area beneath the demand curve (Figure 5), that is,
q
EB = ∫ q : p e dq e
(10)
9
where q0 to q1 is the range of integration. Integrating with respect to qe results in an economic
benefit of
EB = q: ( p: − : β ) − q 9 ( p9 − : β )
(11)
where p0 and p1 are prices corresponding to q0 and q1, respectively.
III.
An Illustrative Example
The demand for electricity function may be estimated econometrically if sufficient data is
available or by means of a survey. The econometric approach normally requires at least 20 years of
time-series data on electricity sales, the marginal price of the electricity sold, and economic data such
as income, the price of alternate fuels (kerosene, gas, wood, etc.), and weather and demographic
data. Sufficient data are often not available, electricity supply may be constrained, and other
statistical issues arise, such as the identification problem. It also may not be possible to relate the
resultant parameters of the econometric analysis from a relatively large group of existing consumers,
say on a country level, to the consumer group under investigation. Therefore, the econometric
approach is usually used sparingly.
The survey approach is likely easier to apply. The electrification of a village in the rural area
is used here as an illustrative example. Households in villages usually share similar economic and
demographic characteristics and thus there is likely little need to collect this kind of data. This
approach usually begins with a survey of two villages: the village to be electrified, and another village
already electrified but with a similar population size, and economic and demographic characteristics.
The differences in the consumption of all energy in these villages may therefore be attributed to the
electrification project. The necessary data from the nonelectrified village includes consumption of
the various forms of energy and the prices paid for them. In the electrified village, similar data are
collected along with the data on electricity consumption and its price.
The survey may find that households without access to electricity use kerosene for lighting
while those with access use electric lighting as well as electricity for fans, radios, television, etc.
Other energy consumption, for example gas for cooking, may remain the same for both villages.
The kerosene that is displaced by electric lighting is a resource cost saving to the economy and the
economic benefit of this should be valued accordingly. Normally, more electric lighting is used than
the equivalent in kerosene form. This excess electricity consumption along with that used for other
purposes is incremental consumption induced by electricity’s lower price and other positive
externalities and is valued in terms of willingness to pay. The price paid for kerosene lighting is an
indication of the willingness to pay for the quantity of lighting consumed. In this illustrative
example, willingness to pay for kerosene by the representative household is $0.20 per kWh
equivalent for 30 kWh per month equivalent. In Figure 5, this would correspond to point (q0, p0).
7
ERD Technical Note No. 3
July 2002
The quantity of kerosene consumed is an average for all households surveyed in the nonelectrified
village.
Billing data for households in the electrified village shows that, at a marginal price of $0.08
per kWh, households on average consume 60 kWh of electricity per month. Therefore, with the
electrification project, consumption is expected to rise to 60 kWh per month in the nonelectrified
village, or an incremental 30 kWh per month. This corresponds to point (q1, p1) in Figure 5. The
parameter β in equation (7) is therefore estimated as
β = (ln q: − ln q 9 ) ( p: − p9 )
= (4.09 – 3.40)/(0.08 – 0.20)
= –5.78
and parameter α is
α = ln q: − βp:
= 4.09 + 5.78*0.08
= 4.56
The economic benefit of the incremental 30 kWh per month consumption given by equation
(11) and is calculated as
EB = q: ( p: − : B ) −q 9 ( p9 − : β )
= 60(0.08 + 0.17) – 30(0.20 + 0.17)
= $3.903
IV.
Conclusions
The purpose of this technical note is to propose a plausible functional form for the demand
for electricity. The functional form proposed in this note is consistent with two properties of
electricity demand functions for households and firms, namely, the negative relationship between
the price and quantity, and the finiteness of demand at zero price. This note also demonstrates that
this functional form of the demand function leads to easily estimable economic benefits of
electricity.
The above approach of measuring willingness to pay is applicable to other sectors where
demand is finite, for example, in telecommunications and water supply. Appendix 1 provides an
example in the telecommunications sector.4
3A
4
demand for electricity function approximated by a straight line estimates the economic benefit using the same data at $4.20.
The project performance audit report for the Southern Provincial Towns Water Supply Project in the Lao People’s Democratic
Republic (Asian Development Bank 2000) provides another example in the water supply sector.
8
Measuring Willingness to Pay for Electricity
Appendix 1
Willingness to Pay for Telephone Services in Rural Thailand5
The measurement of an individual’s willingness to pay for goods or services for which there is a
saturation point or finite demand even at zero price, such as telephone services, relies on a reliable estimate of
a demand function. However, standard microeconomic theory falls short in providing a plausible framework
within which such estimation could be made. Empirical work to date has generally tended toward assuming
that the demand for goods or services has no saturation point. Many demand models assume a constant price
elasticity, which implies infinite demand at prices approaching zero. Moreover, some single equation and
demand system models do not allow for the possibility of goods at zero price because the price variable is in
logarithmic form for which zero is undefined. It is intuitive that, even at zero price, the demand for some
goods and services would be finite.
In general, the demand for telephone services is a finite demand, even at zero price. Consumers are
physically bound by the number of hours in any time period that could be devoted to making telephone calls.
In regions such as North America where there is no charge for local telephone calls, it is observed that
consumers limit the number of telephone calls they make. A socioeconomic study in the mid-1990s found
several additional characteristics on the demand for telephone services in the rural areas of Thailand.6 More
than 80 percent of telephone calls are for personal reasons; the balance is for business-related matters such as
banking and dealing with government agencies. The average length of a telephone call is 5 minutes. Thus,
consumers in rural areas tend to use telephone services for functional purposes such as keeping in touch with
relatives and business-related matters. Rural telephones are also perceived as a new service. It has not
substituted, to any great extent, traditional forms of communication, such as letter writing and travel.
Therefore, the demand for rural telephone calls is primarily an incremental demand.
These characteristics provide a guide for a functional form for the demand for telephone calls by an
individual in the rural areas of Thailand. First, a quasilinear utility function (U) for a representative individual
may be assumed, the form of which is
U = V (q ) + λM
(1)
where V is a utility function for telephone calls only, q is the quantity of telephone calls demanded, M is a
composite commodity called “money”, and λ is the marginal utility of money. The quasilinear utility function
is separable and strongly additive and is appropriate because the demand for telephone calls is usually
independent of the demand for other goods and services. This functional form also assumes that the marginal
utility of money is constant or, equivalently, that the income effect is zero, an assumption that is reasonable
for an individual whose demand of telephone calls is relatively small compared to other goods and services.
The utility function for telephone calls V selected for the analysis is
V = (ln q − α − :) q β
(2)
where ln is the natural logarithm, α>0 and β<0. This utility function has the desirable property of diminishing
marginal utility. It also has a point where satiation occurs (lnq = α), that is, a point of demand where marginal
utility is zero.
The constrained maximization of utility leads to the following demand function
5
6
This appendix is reproduced from the project performance audit report for the Second Rural Telecommunications Project in
Thailand (Asian Development Bank 2001).
TA 2381-THA: Socioeconomic Impact Study of Rural Telecommunications in Thailand, for $200,000, approved on 22 August 1995.
9
ERD Technical Note No. 3
July 2002
ln q = α + β λp
(3)
The upper bound of the demand for telephone calls function (when the price is zero) is given by eα and βλ is
the price semi-elasticity of demand. The price elasticity is given by
η p = (dq dp )( p q ) = βλp
(4)
which varies with the price level, as may be expected. The demand function also has the desirable property
that willingness to pay rises exponentially as demand falls, as suggested by economic theory.7 Thus, the
functional form incorporates the following three characteristics. First, it is negatively sloped with respect to
price, as economic theory suggests for a normal good. Second, it is a smooth and continuous function. And
third, it intercepts the abscissa to allow for the finiteness of the demand for telephone calls.
The economic benefit (EB) derived from a new telephone service is the area beneath the demand
curve (Figure 1). The quantity of telephone calls demanded is q* at the given price of p*.
Figure 1. Semilog Household Demand Function for Telephone Calls
p
p*
q
q*
The demand curve (3) readily lends itself to calculating the economic benefit of telephone calls, namely,
*
EB = ∫ q0 pdq
(5)
Integrating with respect to q results in an economic benefit of
(
EB = q * p * − : λβ
)
(6)
Estimation of the Demand for Telephone Calls Function
The parameters of the demand for telephone calls function (3) were estimated from data collected in
March 2001 by a survey of 23 individuals with similar socioeconomic characteristics resident in the rural areas
within reasonable access to the rural telecommunications network. Individuals were asked questions about
their current telephone usage and about two hypothetical scenarios: one on telephone usage if there was no
7
Equation (3) should normally be used to estimate demand functions of consumers with the same socioeconomic characteristics
because of the absence of an income variable. If income varies significantly among consumers, an income variable should be
included in equation (3).
10
Measuring Willingness to Pay for Electricity
telephone service available nearby and travel to the next nearest telephone in another village was necessary;
and the other on telephone usage if telephone calls were free. From the survey responses, it was found that
there was a distinct pattern in telephone usage. If no telephone were available nearby, on average, rural people
would make four telephone calls per month at an average cost of B62 per 5-minute call. These calls were
primarily to relatives and friends and sometimes for business purposes. If telephone calls were free, survey
responders indicated that they would likely make one call a day, or about 30 telephone calls per month. This
information indicates that the parameter α has a value of 3.4012 while βλ has a value of –0.0325, or the
following demand for telephone calls function,
lnq = 3.4012 – 0.0325p
(7)
The accuracy of the demand for telephone calls model (7) was verified by comparing actual
telephone usage and the price paid with that predicted by (7). The comparison concluded that the demand for
telephone calls model is reasonably accurate.
11
ERD Technical Note No. 3
July 2002
References
Asian Development Bank, 2000. Project Performance Audit Report on the Southern Provincial
Towns Water Supply Project in the Lao People’s Democratic Republic. Manila.
, 2001. Project Performance Audit Report on the Second Rural Telecommunications Project
in Thailand. Manila.
Barten, A., 1966. Theorie en emperie van een volledig stelsel van vraagvergelijkingen. Doctoral
dissertation, University of Rotterdam, Rotterdam.
Beenstock, M., E. Goldin, and D. Nabot, 1999. “The Demand for Electricity in Israel.” Energy
Economics 21(2):168-83.
Christensen, L. R., D. W. Jorgensen, and L. J. Lau, 1975. “Transcendental Logarithmic Utility
Functions.” American Economic Review65:367-83.
Deaton, A. S., and J. Meullbauer, 1980a. Economics and Consumer Behavior. Cambridge: Cambridge
University Press.
, 1980b. “An Almost Ideal Demand System.” American Economic Review 70:312-36.
Haas, R., and L. Schipper, 1998. “Residential Energy Demand in OECD-Countries and the Role of
Irreversible Efficiency Improvements.” Energy Economics 20(4):421-42.
Nan, G. D., and D. A. Murry, 1992. “Energy Demand with the Flexible Double Logarithmic
Functional Form.” The Energy Journal 13(4): 149-59.
Stone, J. R. N., 1954. The Measurement of Consumers’ Expenditure and Behaviour in the United Kingdom,
1920-1938. Vol. I. Cambridge: Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
Taylor, L. D., 1975. “The Demand for Electricity: a Survey.” Bell Journal of Economics 6(1):74-110.
Theil, H., 1965. “The Information Approach to Demand Analysis.” Econometrica 33:67-87.
Westley, G., 1989. The Demand for Electricity in Latin America: a Survey and Analysis. Papers on
Project Analysis No. 35, Inter-American Development Bank., Washington, D. C.
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No. 3
No. 4
No. 5
No. 6
No. 7
No. 8
No. 9
No. 10
No. 11
No. 12
No. 13
No. 14
No. 15
No. 16
No. 17
No. 18
No. 19
No. 20
No. 21
ASEAN and the Asian Development Bank
—Seiji Naya, April 1982
Development Issues for the Developing East
and Southeast Asian Countries
and International Cooperation
—Seiji Naya and Graham Abbott, April 1982
Aid, Savings, and Growth in the Asian Region
—J. Malcolm Dowling and Ulrich Hiemenz,
April 1982
Development-oriented Foreign Investment
and the Role of ADB
—Kiyoshi Kojima, April 1982
The Multilateral Development Banks
and the International Economy’s Missing
Public Sector
—John Lewis, June 1982
Notes on External Debt of DMCs
—Evelyn Go, July 1982
Grant Element in Bank Loans
—Dal Hyun Kim, July 1982
Shadow Exchange Rates and Standard
Conversion Factors in Project Evaluation
—Peter Warr, September 1982
Small and Medium-Scale Manufacturing
Establishments in ASEAN Countries:
Perspectives and Policy Issues
—Mathias Bruch and Ulrich Hiemenz,
January 1983
A Note on the Third Ministerial Meeting of GATT
—Jungsoo Lee, January 1983
Macroeconomic Forecasts for the Republic
of China, Hong Kong, and Republic of Korea
—J.M. Dowling, January 1983
ASEAN: Economic Situation and Prospects
—Seiji Naya, March 1983
The Future Prospects for the Developing
Countries of Asia
—Seiji Naya, March 1983
Energy and Structural Change in the AsiaPacific Region, Summary of the Thirteenth
Pacific Trade and Development Conference
—Seiji Naya, March 1983
A Survey of Empirical Studies on Demand
for Electricity with Special Emphasis on Price
Elasticity of Demand
—Wisarn Pupphavesa, June 1983
Determinants of Paddy Production in Indonesia:
1972-1981–A Simultaneous Equation Model
Approach
—T.K. Jayaraman, June 1983
The Philippine Economy: Economic
Forecasts for 1983 and 1984
—J.M. Dowling, E. Go, and C.N. Castillo,
June 1983
Economic Forecast for Indonesia
—J.M. Dowling, H.Y. Kim, Y.K. Wang,
and C.N. Castillo, June 1983
Relative External Debt Situation of Asian
Developing Countries: An Application
of Ranking Method
—Jungsoo Lee, June 1983
New Evidence on Yields, Fertilizer Application,
and Prices in Asian Rice Production
—William James and Teresita Ramirez, July 1983
Inflationary Effects of Exchange Rate
No. 22
No. 23
No. 24
No. 25
No. 26
No. 27
No. 28
No. 29
No. 30
No. 31
No. 32
No. 33
No. 34
No. 35
No. 36
No. 37
No. 38
No. 39
No. 40
14
Changes in Nine Asian LDCs
—Pradumna B. Rana and J. Malcolm Dowling, Jr.,
December 1983
Effects of External Shocks on the Balance
of Payments, Policy Responses, and Debt
Problems of Asian Developing Countries
—Seiji Naya, December 1983
Changing Trade Patterns and Policy Issues:
The Prospects for East and Southeast Asian
Developing Countries
—Seiji Naya and Ulrich Hiemenz, February 1984
Small-Scale Industries in Asian Economic
Development: Problems and Prospects
—Seiji Naya, February 1984
A Study on the External Debt Indicators
Applying Logit Analysis
—Jungsoo Lee and Clarita Barretto, February 1984
Alternatives to Institutional Credit Programs
in the Agricultural Sector of Low-Income
Countries
—Jennifer Sour, March 1984
Economic Scene in Asia and Its Special Features
—Kedar N. Kohli, November 1984
The Effect of Terms of Trade Changes on the
Balance of Payments and Real National
Income of Asian Developing Countries
—Jungsoo Lee and Lutgarda Labios, January 1985
Cause and Effect in the World Sugar Market:
Some Empirical Findings 1951-1982
—Yoshihiro Iwasaki, February 1985
Sources of Balance of Payments Problem
in the 1970s: The Asian Experience
—Pradumna Rana, February 1985
India’s Manufactured Exports: An Analysis
of Supply Sectors
—Ifzal Ali, February 1985
Meeting Basic Human Needs in Asian
Developing Countries
—Jungsoo Lee and Emma Banaria, March 1985
The Impact of Foreign Capital Inflow
on Investment and Economic Growth
in Developing Asia
—Evelyn Go, May 1985
The Climate for Energy Development
in the Pacific and Asian Region:
Priorities and Perspectives
—V.V. Desai, April 1986
Impact of Appreciation of the Yen on
Developing Member Countries of the Bank
—Jungsoo Lee, Pradumna Rana, and Ifzal Ali,
May 1986
Smuggling and Domestic Economic Policies
in Developing Countries
—A.H.M.N. Chowdhury, October 1986
Public Investment Criteria: Economic Internal
Rate of Return and Equalizing Discount Rate
—Ifzal Ali, November 1986
Review of the Theory of Neoclassical Political
Economy: An Application to Trade Policies
—M.G. Quibria, December 1986
Factors Influencing the Choice of Location:
Local and Foreign Firms in the Philippines
—E.M. Pernia and A.N. Herrin, February 1987
A Demographic Perspective on Developing
Asia and Its Relevance to the Bank
No. 41
No. 42
No. 43
No. 44
No. 45
No. 46
No. 47
No. 48
No. 49
No. 50
No. 51
No. 52
No. 53
No. 54
No. 55
—E.M. Pernia, May 1987
Emerging Issues in Asia and Social Cost
Benefit Analysis
—I. Ali, September 1988
Shifting Revealed Comparative Advantage:
Experiences of Asian and Pacific Developing
Countries
—P.B. Rana, November 1988
Agricultural Price Policy in Asia:
Issues and Areas of Reforms
—I. Ali, November 1988
Service Trade and Asian Developing Economies
—M.G. Quibria, October 1989
A Review of the Economic Analysis of Power
Projects in Asia and Identification of Areas
of Improvement
—I. Ali, November 1989
Growth Perspective and Challenges for Asia:
Areas for Policy Review and Research
—I. Ali, November 1989
An Approach to Estimating the Poverty
Alleviation Impact of an Agricultural Project
—I. Ali, January 1990
Economic Growth Performance of Indonesia,
the Philippines, and Thailand:
The Human Resource Dimension
—E.M. Pernia, January 1990
Foreign Exchange and Fiscal Impact of a Project:
A Methodological Framework for Estimation
—I. Ali, February 1990
Public Investment Criteria: Financial
and Economic Internal Rates of Return
—I. Ali, April 1990
Evaluation of Water Supply Projects:
An Economic Framework
—Arlene M. Tadle, June 1990
Interrelationship Between Shadow Prices, Project
Investment, and Policy Reforms:
An Analytical Framework
—I. Ali, November 1990
Issues in Assessing the Impact of Project
and Sector Adjustment Lending
—I. Ali, December 1990
Some Aspects of Urbanization
and the Environment in Southeast Asia
—Ernesto M. Pernia, January 1991
No. 56
No. 57
No. 58
No. 59
No. 60
No. 61
No. 62
No. 63
No. 64
No. 65
No. 66
No. 67
Financial Sector and Economic
Development: A Survey
—Jungsoo Lee, September 1991
A Framework for Justifying Bank-Assisted
Education Projects in Asia: A Review
of the Socioeconomic Analysis
and Identification of Areas of Improvement
—Etienne Van De Walle, February 1992
Medium-term Growth-Stabilization
Relationship in Asian Developing Countries
and Some Policy Considerations
—Yun-Hwan Kim, February 1993
Urbanization, Population Distribution,
and Economic Development in Asia
—Ernesto M. Pernia, February 1993
The Need for Fiscal Consolidation in Nepal:
The Results of a Simulation
—Filippo di Mauro and Ronald Antonio Butiong,
July 1993
A Computable General Equilibrium Model
of Nepal
—Timothy Buehrer and Filippo di Mauro,
October 1993
The Role of Government in Export Expansion
in the Republic of Korea: A Revisit
—Yun-Hwan Kim, February 1994
Rural Reforms, Structural Change,
and Agricultural Growth in
the People’s Republic of China
—Bo Lin, August 1994
Incentives and Regulation for Pollution Abatement
with an Application to Waste Water Treatment
—Sudipto Mundle, U. Shankar,
and Shekhar Mehta, October 1995
Saving Transitions in Southeast Asia
—Frank Harrigan, February 1996
Total Factor Productivity Growth in East Asia:
A Critical Survey
—Jesus Felipe, September 1997
Foreign Direct Investment in Pakistan:
Policy Issues and Operational Implications
—Ashfaque H. Khan and Yun-Hwan Kim,
July 1999
Fiscal Policy, Income Distribution and Growth
—Sailesh K. Jha, November 1999
ECONOMIC STAFF PAPERS (ES)
No. 1
No. 2
No. 3
No. 4
No. 5
No. 6
International Reserves:
Factors Determining Needs and Adequacy
—Evelyn Go, May 1981
Domestic Savings in Selected Developing
Asian Countries
—Basil Moore, assisted by
A.H.M. Nuruddin Chowdhury, September 1981
Changes in Consumption, Imports and Exports
of Oil Since 1973: A Preliminary Survey of
the Developing Member Countries
of the Asian Development Bank
—Dal Hyun Kim and Graham Abbott,
September 1981
By-Passed Areas, Regional Inequalities,
and Development Policies in Selected
Southeast Asian Countries
—William James, October 1981
Asian Agriculture and Economic Development
—William James, March 1982
Inflation in Developing Member Countries:
No. 7
No. 8
No. 9
No. 10
No. 11
15
An Analysis of Recent Trends
—A.H.M. Nuruddin Chowdhury and
J. Malcolm Dowling, March 1982
Industrial Growth and Employment in
Developing Asian Countries: Issues and
Perspectives for the Coming Decade
—Ulrich Hiemenz, March 1982
Petrodollar Recycling 1973-1980.
Part 1: Regional Adjustments and
the World Economy
—Burnham Campbell, April 1982
Developing Asia: The Importance
of Domestic Policies
—Economics Office Staff under the direction
of Seiji Naya, May 1982
Financial Development and Household
Savings: Issues in Domestic Resource
Mobilization in Asian Developing Countries
—Wan-Soon Kim, July 1982
Industrial Development: Role of Specialized
No. 12
No. 13
No. 14
No. 15
No. 16
No. 17
No. 18
No. 19
No. 20
No. 21
No. 22
No. 23
No. 24
No. 25
No. 26
No. 27
No. 28
No. 29
No. 30
No. 31
No. 32
No. 33
No. 34
Financial Institutions
—Kedar N. Kohli, August 1982
Petrodollar Recycling 1973-1980.
Part II: Debt Problems and an Evaluation
of Suggested Remedies
—Burnham Campbell, September 1982
Credit Rationing, Rural Savings, and Financial
Policy in Developing Countries
—William James, September 1982
Small and Medium-Scale Manufacturing
Establishments in ASEAN Countries:
Perspectives and Policy Issues
—Mathias Bruch and Ulrich Hiemenz, March 1983
Income Distribution and Economic
Growth in Developing Asian Countries
—J. Malcolm Dowling and David Soo, March 1983
Long-Run Debt-Servicing Capacity of
Asian Developing Countries: An Application
of Critical Interest Rate Approach
—Jungsoo Lee, June 1983
External Shocks, Energy Policy,
and Macroeconomic Performance of Asian
Developing Countries: A Policy Analysis
—William James, July 1983
The Impact of the Current Exchange Rate
System on Trade and Inflation of Selected
Developing Member Countries
—Pradumna Rana, September 1983
Asian Agriculture in Transition: Key Policy Issues
—William James, September 1983
The Transition to an Industrial Economy
in Monsoon Asia
—Harry T. Oshima, October 1983
The Significance of Off-Farm Employment
and Incomes in Post-War East Asian Growth
—Harry T. Oshima, January 1984
Income Distribution and Poverty in Selected
Asian Countries
—John Malcolm Dowling, Jr., November 1984
ASEAN Economies and ASEAN Economic
Cooperation
—Narongchai Akrasanee, November 1984
Economic Analysis of Power Projects
—Nitin Desai, January 1985
Exports and Economic Growth in the Asian Region
—Pradumna Rana, February 1985
Patterns of External Financing of DMCs
—E. Go, May 1985
Industrial Technology Development
the Republic of Korea
—S.Y. Lo, July 1985
Risk Analysis and Project Selection:
A Review of Practical Issues
—J.K. Johnson, August 1985
Rice in Indonesia: Price Policy and Comparative
Advantage
—I. Ali, January 1986
Effects of Foreign Capital Inflows
on Developing Countries of Asia
—Jungsoo Lee, Pradumna B. Rana,
and Yoshihiro Iwasaki, April 1986
Economic Analysis of the Environmental
Impacts of Development Projects
—John A. Dixon et al., EAPI,
East-West Center, August 1986
Science and Technology for Development:
Role of the Bank
—Kedar N. Kohli and Ifzal Ali, November 1986
Satellite Remote Sensing in the Asian
and Pacific Region
—Mohan Sundara Rajan, December 1986
Changes in the Export Patterns of Asian and
No. 35
No. 36
No. 37
No. 38
No. 39
No. 40
No. 41
No. 42
No. 43
No. 44
No. 45
No. 46
No. 47
No. 48
No. 49
No. 50
No. 51
No. 52
No. 53
No. 54
No. 55
No. 56
16
Pacific Developing Countries: An Empirical
Overview
—Pradumna B. Rana, January 1987
Agricultural Price Policy in Nepal
—Gerald C. Nelson, March 1987
Implications of Falling Primary Commodity
Prices for Agricultural Strategy in the Philippines
—Ifzal Ali, September 1987
Determining Irrigation Charges: A Framework
—Prabhakar B. Ghate, October 1987
The Role of Fertilizer Subsidies in Agricultural
Production: A Review of Select Issues
—M.G. Quibria, October 1987
Domestic Adjustment to External Shocks
in Developing Asia
—Jungsoo Lee, October 1987
Improving Domestic Resource Mobilization
through Financial Development: Indonesia
—Philip Erquiaga, November 1987
Recent Trends and Issues on Foreign Direct
Investment in Asian and Pacific Developing
Countries
—P.B. Rana, March 1988
Manufactured Exports from the Philippines:
A Sector Profile and an Agenda for Reform
—I. Ali, September 1988
A Framework for Evaluating the Economic
Benefits of Power Projects
—I. Ali, August 1989
Promotion of Manufactured Exports in Pakistan
—Jungsoo Lee and Yoshihiro Iwasaki,
September 1989
Education and Labor Markets in Indonesia:
A Sector Survey
—Ernesto M. Pernia and David N. Wilson,
September 1989
Industrial Technology Capabilities
and Policies in Selected ADCs
—Hiroshi Kakazu, June 1990
Designing Strategies and Policies
for Managing Structural Change in Asia
—Ifzal Ali, June 1990
The Completion of the Single European Community
Market in 1992: A Tentative Assessment of its
Impact on Asian Developing Countries
—J.P. Verbiest and Min Tang, June 1991
Economic Analysis of Investment in Power Systems
—Ifzal Ali, June 1991
External Finance and the Role of Multilateral
Financial Institutions in South Asia:
Changing Patterns, Prospects, and Challenges
—Jungsoo Lee, November 1991
The Gender and Poverty Nexus: Issues and Policies
—M.G. Quibria, November 1993
The Role of the State in Economic Development:
Theory, the East Asian Experience,
and the Malaysian Case
—Jason Brown, December 1993
The Economic Benefits of Potable Water Supply
Projects to Households in Developing Countries
—Dale Whittington and Venkateswarlu Swarna,
January 1994
Growth Triangles: Conceptual Issues
and Operational Problems
—Min Tang and Myo Thant, February 1994
The Emerging Global Trading Environment
and Developing Asia
—Arvind Panagariya, M.G. Quibria,
and Narhari Rao, July 1996
Aspects of Urban Water and Sanitation in
the Context of Rapid Urbanization in
Developing Asia
No. 57
No. 58
—Ernesto M. Pernia and Stella LF. Alabastro,
September 1997
Challenges for Asia’s Trade and Environment
—Douglas H. Brooks, January 1998
Economic Analysis of Health Sector ProjectsA Review of Issues, Methods, and Approaches
—Ramesh Adhikari, Paul Gertler, and
No. 59
No. 60
Anneli Lagman, March 1999
The Asian Crisis: An Alternate View
—Rajiv Kumar and Bibek Debroy, July 1999
Social Consequences of the Financial Crisis in Asia
—James C. Knowles, Ernesto M. Pernia, and
Mary Racelis, November 1999
OCCASIONAL PAPERS (OP)
No. 1
No. 2
No. 3
No. 4
No. 5
No. 6
No. 7
No. 8
No. 9
No. 10
No. 11
Poverty in the People’s Republic of China:
Recent Developments and Scope
for Bank Assistance
—K.H. Moinuddin, November 1992
The Eastern Islands of Indonesia: An Overview
of Development Needs and Potential
—Brien K. Parkinson, January 1993
Rural Institutional Finance in Bangladesh
and Nepal: Review and Agenda for Reforms
—A.H.M.N. Chowdhury and Marcelia C. Garcia,
November 1993
Fiscal Deficits and Current Account Imbalances
of the South Pacific Countries:
A Case Study of Vanuatu
—T.K. Jayaraman, December 1993
Reforms in the Transitional Economies of Asia
—Pradumna B. Rana, December 1993
Environmental Challenges in the People’s Republic
of China and Scope for Bank Assistance
—Elisabetta Capannelli and Omkar L. Shrestha,
December 1993
Sustainable Development Environment
and Poverty Nexus
—K.F. Jalal, December 1993
Intermediate Services and Economic
Development: The Malaysian Example
—Sutanu Behuria and Rahul Khullar, May 1994
Interest Rate Deregulation: A Brief Survey
of the Policy Issues and the Asian Experience
—Carlos J. Glower, July 1994
Some Aspects of Land Administration
in Indonesia: Implications for Bank Operations
—Sutanu Behuria, July 1994
Demographic and Socioeconomic Determinants
of Contraceptive Use among Urban Women in
the Melanesian Countries in the South Pacific:
A Case Study of Port Vila Town in Vanuatu
—T.K. Jayaraman, February 1995
No. 12
No. 13
No. 14
No. 15
No. 16
No. 17
No. 18
No. 19
No. 20
No. 21
No. 22
Managing Development through
Institution Building
— Hilton L. Root, October 1995
Growth, Structural Change, and Optimal
Poverty Interventions
—Shiladitya Chatterjee, November 1995
Private Investment and Macroeconomic
Environment in the South Pacific Island
Countries: A Cross-Country Analysis
—T.K. Jayaraman, October 1996
The Rural-Urban Transition in Viet Nam:
Some Selected Issues
—Sudipto Mundle and Brian Van Arkadie,
October 1997
A New Approach to Setting the Future
Transport Agenda
—Roger Allport, Geoff Key, and Charles Melhuish
June 1998
Adjustment and Distribution:
The Indian Experience
—Sudipto Mundle and V.B. Tulasidhar, June 1998
Tax Reforms in Viet Nam: A Selective Analysis
—Sudipto Mundle, December 1998
Surges and Volatility of Private Capital Flows to
Asian Developing Countries: Implications
for Multilateral Development Banks
—Pradumna B. Rana, December 1998
The Millennium Round and the Asian Economies:
An Introduction
—Dilip K. Das, October 1999
Occupational Segregation and the Gender
Earnings Gap
—Joseph E. Zveglich, Jr. and Yana van der Meulen
Rodgers, December 1999
Information Technology: Next Locomotive of
Growth?
—Dilip K. Das, June 2000
STATISTICAL REPORT SERIES (SR)
No. 1
No. 2
No. 3
No. 4
Estimates of the Total External Debt of
the Developing Member Countries of ADB:
1981-1983
—I.P. David, September 1984
Multivariate Statistical and Graphical
Classification Techniques Applied
to the Problem of Grouping Countries
—I.P. David and D.S. Maligalig, March 1985
Gross National Product (GNP) Measurement
Issues in South Pacific Developing Member
Countries of ADB
—S.G. Tiwari, September 1985
Estimates of Comparable Savings in Selected
DMCs
—Hananto Sigit, December 1985
No. 5
No. 6
No. 7
No. 8
17
Keeping Sample Survey Design
and Analysis Simple
—I.P. David, December 1985
External Debt Situation in Asian
Developing Countries
—I.P. David and Jungsoo Lee, March 1986
Study of GNP Measurement Issues in the
South Pacific Developing Member Countries.
Part I: Existing National Accounts
of SPDMCs–Analysis of Methodology
and Application of SNA Concepts
—P. Hodgkinson, October 1986
Study of GNP Measurement Issues in the South
Pacific Developing Member Countries.
Part II: Factors Affecting Intercountry
No. 9
No. 10
No. 11
No. 12
No. 13
Comparability of Per Capita GNP
—P. Hodgkinson, October 1986
Survey of the External Debt Situation
in Asian Developing Countries, 1985
—Jungsoo Lee and I.P. David, April 1987
A Survey of the External Debt Situation
in Asian Developing Countries, 1986
—Jungsoo Lee and I.P. David, April 1988
Changing Pattern of Financial Flows to Asian
and Pacific Developing Countries
—Jungsoo Lee and I.P. David, March 1989
The State of Agricultural Statistics in
Southeast Asia
—I.P. David, March 1989
A Survey of the External Debt Situation
in Asian and Pacific Developing Countries:
1987-1988
—Jungsoo Lee and I.P. David, July 1989
No. 14
No. 15
No. 16
No. 17
No. 18
A Survey of the External Debt Situation in
Asian and Pacific Developing Countries: 1988-1989
—Jungsoo Lee, May 1990
A Survey of the External Debt Situation
in Asian and Pacific Developing Countrie s:
1989-1992
—Min Tang, June 1991
Recent Trends and Prospects of External Debt
Situation and Financial Flows to Asian
and Pacific Developing Countries
—Min Tang and Aludia Pardo, June 1992
Purchasing Power Parity in Asian Developing
Countries: A Co-Integration Test
—Min Tang and Ronald Q. Butiong, April 1994
Capital Flows to Asian and Pacific Developing
Countries: Recent Trends and Future Prospects
—Min Tang and James Villafuerte, October 1995
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Improving Domestic Resource Mobilization Through
Financial Development: Overview September 1985
Improving Domestic Resource Mobilization Through
Financial Development: Bangladesh July 1986
Improving Domestic Resource Mobilization Through
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Improving Domestic Resource Mobilization Through
Financial Development: India December 1987
Financing Public Sector Development Expenditure
in Selected Countries: Overview January 1988
Study of Selected Industries: A Brief Report
April 1988
Financing Public Sector Development Expenditure
in Selected Countries: Bangladesh June 1988
Financing Public Sector Development Expenditure
in Selected Countries: India June 1988
Financing Public Sector Development Expenditure
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Financing Public Sector Development Expenditure
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Financing Public Sector Development Expenditure
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Financing Public Sector Development Expenditure
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Towards Regional Cooperation in South Asia:
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Evaluating Rice Market Intervention Policies:
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Improving Domestic Resource Mobilization Through
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Foreign Trade Barriers and Export Growth
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April 1989
19. The Role of Small and Medium-Scale Manufacturing
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20. National Accounts of Vanuatu, 1983-1987
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21. National Accounts of Western Samoa, 1984-1986
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Critical Issues in Asian Development:
Theories, Experiences, and Policies
Edited by M.G. Quibria, 1995
$15.00 (paperback)
$36.00 (hardbound)
From Centrally Planned to Market Economies:
The Asian Approach
Edited by Pradumna B. Rana and Naved Hamid, 1995
Vol. 1: Overview
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Vol. 2: People’s Republic of China and Mongolia
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Financial Sector Development in Asia
Edited by Shahid N. Zahid, 1995
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Financial Sector Development in Asia: Country Studies
Edited by Shahid N. Zahid, 1995
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10. Fiscal Management and Economic Reform
in the People’s Republic of China
Christine P.W. Wong, Christopher Heady,
and Wing T. Woo, 1995
$15.00 (paperback)
11. Current Issues in Economic Development:
An Asian Perspective
Edited by M.G. Quibria and J. Malcolm Dowling, 1996
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12. The Bangladesh Economy in Transition
Edited by M.G. Quibria, 1997
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13. The Global Trading System and Developing Asia
Edited by Arvind Panagariya, M.G. Quibria,
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14. Rising to the Challenge in Asia: A Study of Financial
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Asian Development Bank, 1999
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SERIALS
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Asian Development Outlook (ADO; annual)
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Key Indicators of Developing Asian and Pacific Countries (KI; annual)
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JOURNAL
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1.
Asian Development Review (ADR; semiannual)
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