ARTICLE IN PRESS Quaternary Science Reviews xxx (2010) 1–7 Contents lists available at ScienceDirect Quaternary Science Reviews journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/quascirev The importance of northern peatland expansion to the late-Holocene rise of atmospheric methane Atte Korhola a, *, Meri Ruppel a, Heikki Seppä b, Minna Väliranta a, Tarmo Virtanen a, Jan Weckström a a b Environmental Change Research Unit, Department of Biological and Environmental Sciences, P.O. Box 65, Viikinkaari 1, 00014 University of Helsinki, Finland Department of Geology, P.O. Box 64, Gustaf Hällströminkatu 2a, 00014 University of Helsinki, Finland a r t i c l e i n f o a b s t a r c t Article history: Received 5 October 2009 Received in revised form 15 December 2009 Accepted 15 December 2009 Wetlands have been considered as the most important natural source of the atmospheric methane concentration (AMC) prior to anthropogenic influences. According to ice cores, AMC varied significantly during the Holocene, the causes of which are not completely understood. In particular, the reasons for the increased AMC during the late Holocene (from 5 ka onwards) have been debated widely, including an anthropogenic explanation. Initially, this increase was associated with increased emissions from northern wetlands, but estimated peat initiation rates seem not to support the conclusion. Based on a new data set of 954 basal peat radiocarbon dates that accounts more properly for the horizontal growth dynamics of northern peatlands (by containing only sites with multiple basal dates per site), we show here that the most extensive lateral expansion of high-latitude peatlands occurred only after 5 ka, parallel with the rise of CH4 in the ice cores. Because this explosive increase in the extent of peatlands resulted in the formation of moist minerotrophic fen ecosystems that emit high amounts of CH4 for a long time since their formation, and because many Arctic peatlands have remained minerotrophic throughout their development, northern peatlands cannot be neglected when seeking cause(s) for the late-Holocene rise in CH4. A similar event in future could enhance climate change by causing a rapid shift in atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations. Ó 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 1. Introduction Ice-core records have demonstrated that the past atmospheric concentrations of methane, the third most important greenhouse gas in the atmosphere, fluctuated widely in parallel to rapid glacial climate changes in the Northern Hemisphere (Chappellaz et al., 1993; Blunier et al., 1995; Brook et al., 2000). After the termination of the last glacial epoch, atmospheric methane concentration (AMC) rose rapidly to levels over 700 parts per billion by volume (ppbv) in the early Holocene between 11 and 8 ka (kiloyears before present, with present equal to AD 1950), decreased and reached a minimum of <600 ppbv at 5.2 ka and then increased again over the late Holocene to values about 725 ppbv just before the industrial revolution (Chappellaz et al., 1993; Blunier et al., 1995; Brook et al., 2000). Changes in ice core AMC reflect larger-scale changes in natural methane sources, which comprise tropical and boreal wetlands, oceans, thaw lakes (especially in winter), termites, ruminants and biomass burning (Whiticar, 1993; Quay et al., 1999; * Corresponding author. E-mail address: atte.korhola@helsinki.fi (A. Korhola). Walter et al., 2006). Of these, natural wetlands have been considered as the most important (z75%) source of AMC prior to anthropogenic influences (Mikaloff Fletcher et al., 2004). A vigorous debate about the causes of the late-Holocene increase of the AMC of around 100 ppbv has been underway for years. Although it is generally agreed that the dominant natural methane source was wetlands, the relative contributions from the mid-high northern hemisphere latitudes versus the tropics to the late-Holocene increase have been open to question (Chappellaz et al., 1997; Dällenbach et al., 2000). In contrast, it has also been suggested that anthropogenic activities, namely rice cultivation and biomass burning, drove much of this increase (Ruddiman, 2003). This debate has not been settled yet and requires a further analysis of the potential long-term controls on AMC. Northern peatlands represent the biggest wetland complex in the world releasing 20–45 Tg CH4, produced by anaerobic decomposition in waterlogged subsurface peats, into the atmosphere annually (Gorham, 1991; Mikaloff Fletcher et al., 2004). Recent research on the relationship between wetlands and AMC over the Holocene has focused on the aerial extent of peatlands. MacDonald et al. (2006) collated a comprehensive data set of 1516 radiocarbon dates of basal peat layers documenting the spread of peatlands 0277-3791/$ – see front matter Ó 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. doi:10.1016/j.quascirev.2009.12.010 Please cite this article in press as: Korhola, A., et al., The importance of northern peatland expansion to the late-Holocene rise of atmospheric methane, Quaternary Science Reviews (2010), doi:10.1016/j.quascirev.2009.12.010 ARTICLE IN PRESS 2 A. Korhola et al. / Quaternary Science Reviews xxx (2010) 1–7 2080 0 20 0 30 0 40 0 00 50 00 4560 5800 0 3420 0 5220 5680 70 00 80 across the circumpolar North. Based on the frequency distribution of the basal dates they concluded that the rapid early initiation of northern peatlands very likely contributed to the sustained peak in CH4 during the early Holocene. However, they argue that the role of northern peatlands in the more recent rise of AMC after 5 ka was most likely negligible because new peatland initiation was then relatively modest, and the peatlands had already transformed from early minerotrophic fens to drier ombrotrophic bogs, which are typically weaker sources of CH4 than fens (MacDonald et al., 2006). Most of the basal peat dates used to document the initiation of peatlands has been single dates taken from the deepest/oldest part of a single peatland (Smith et al., 2004; MacDonald et al., 2006; Gorham et al., 2007). Such dates may reflect well the initial onset of peatland formation, but neglect the dynamics of the subsequent lateral spread of the mire, which however accounts for most of the methane fluxes because the expanding mire margins are typically minerotrophic fens that are high methane emitters (Rydin and Jeglum, 2006). The lateral peatland expansion may occur much later than the initial mire formation (Foster and Wright, 1990; Korhola, 1994, 1995, 1996; Mäkilä, 1997; Anderson et al., 2003; Bauer et al., 2003; Belyea and Baird, 2006; Weckström et al., in press). Most of the northern peatlands have been formed by primary paludification of mineral ground after emergence from beneath the ice or sea (Warner et al., 1991). Paludification usually began in waterlogged topographic depressions from a single central locus and affected only restricted areas (Foster and Wright, 1990; Korhola, 1994, 1995, 1996; Mäkilä, 1997; Anderson et al., 2003; Bauer et al., 2003; Belyea and Baird, 2006). The subsequent lateral expansion has been driven by water flowing out of the sides of the peat body and submerging a strip of land just beyond the boundary of the peat body, initiating peat formation (Frenzel, 1983). This later lateral expansion of mires has not taken place in an even manner, however, but has included distinctly faster and slower phases, governed by local topographic, hydrological and pedological variations as well as climate change (Foster and Wright, 1990; Korhola, 1994, 1995, 1996; Mäkilä, 1997; Anderson et al., 2003; Bauer et al., 2003; Belyea and Baird, 2006). For example, the paludification of Reksuo (Fig. 1), a welldeveloped, concentric raised bog in SW Finland with a size of 581 ha and maximum peat depth of 7.3 m, began from a single central locus around 8.9 ka. Once the shallow depression was filled with peat, the mire front began to spread into the surrounding mineral soils until ca. 2 ka, after which there was a clear decline in the rate of expansion (Korhola, 1992). On the basis of such detailed accounts on several Fennoscandian peatlands, Korhola (1994) was able to assess the overall aerial expansion rates of Finnish peatlands. Two distinct phases of more active lateral expansion were noted: ca. 8.0–7.0 ka and 4.0–3.0 ka (e.g., Korhola, 1994, 1995; Almquist-Jacobson and Foster, 1995; Charman, 2002; Belyea and Baird, 2006), both episodes resulting in the formation of vast new moist minerotrophic fen areas that emit CH4 effectively. Bog lateral extent is one of the key boundary conditions constraining the dynamics of peatland systems (Belyea and Baird, 2006). The horizontal expansion patterns of peatlands can be properly studied only by dating multiple basal peat samples along transects of one and the same peatland (Foster and Wright, 1990; Warner et al., 1991; Korhola, 1994, 1995, 1996; Mäkilä, 1997; Anderson et al., 2003; Bauer et al., 2003). Therefore, to provide a more generalized account of the spatiotemporal dynamics of the peatland development we compiled a new northern hemispheric peat data set, including only sites that contain multiple radiocarbon-dated bottom peat samples from different localities of a single peatland (by ‘bottom peat’ we mean the first peat overlying mineral soil). By this way we assume to account for the possible phases in lateral extension of peatlands more adequately than 7120 7420 3940 8750 7370 4830 2930 5450 7450 7200 1000 m Fig. 1. Plan view of Reksuo bog showing calibrated radiocarbon dates (cal. yr BP) of basal peats from different locations and approximate isochrones of mire expansion (redrawn after Korhola, 1994). using only the single basal date (usually obtained from the deepest point of the peatland) that may reflect spatially very limited peat induction. 2. Material and methods The timing of northern peatland initiation and lateral expansion was established by compiling a data set of basal peat radiocarbon dates of circumarctic peats from existing literature and unpublished data sources. All peatlands of the tundra and boreal biome and closely adjacent peatlands of the temperate forest biome were recognised as northern peatlands. In North America the southernmost peatlands included were at the 36th latitude and in Europe at the 50th latitude. The data set of 1516 circumarctic basal peat dates collected by MacDonald et al. (2006) was used as a starting point for the data collation. The baseline was that all determinations were checked from the original sources and only basal dates with complete laboratory and geospatial information were included. 1506 determinations fulfilled these criteria. A data set of 1680 basal peat dates from Canada and the United States established by Gorham et al. (2007) was examined next. Of these, 526 determinations were same as in MacDonald et al. (2006). Gorham et al. (2007) online supplementary data did not contain source information and from the remaining data only 425 determinations were traceable and were included in our data. The rest was included without reference and radiocarbon date particulars, except for 55 dates that could not be confirmed as basal peat in our literature survey and 17 dates that were from peatlands south of the 36th latitude. The rest of the data used in our analysis were compiled from other published articles and reports and some from unpublished sources (for details, see Supplementary Tables 1 and 2). The initial radiocarbon ages were calibrated to calendar years using the computer program CALIB 5.1 (IntCal04; Stuiver and Reimer, 1993; Reimer et al., 2004) and rounded to decades. The ages Please cite this article in press as: Korhola, A., et al., The importance of northern peatland expansion to the late-Holocene rise of atmospheric methane, Quaternary Science Reviews (2010), doi:10.1016/j.quascirev.2009.12.010 ARTICLE IN PRESS A. Korhola et al. / Quaternary Science Reviews xxx (2010) 1–7 in Gorham et al. (2007) were already calibrated ages (initial assays not given) and used as such. During the literature survey also the trophic status (ombrotrophy vs. minerotrophy) of the dated peatland was recorded if such data were available. However, in many cases the division is arbitrary because most peatlands have surfaces and vegetation cover of both of these categories. The compilation resulted in a total of 3146 basal peat radiocarbon dates from 2212 sites. Of these, 555 determinations had not yet been referenced to in the context of aerial spread of peatlands. From all these data, we compiled a new subset of data, including only sites that contained a minimum of three radiocarbon-dated basal peat samples from different sampling points from a single peatland. We appreciate less than three sample points may only refer replicate cores taken next to each other. Hence, we consider three samples to be the lowest number of bottom ages to inform about the lateral expansion of given mire. Also, site information included in our database (Supplementary Table 1) show that three basal dates are always located in different parts of the peatland under consideration. This new inventory resulted in 138 peatland sites and 954 radiocarbon dates. Of the new dataset 417 dates were already reported in MacDonald et al. (2006) and 97 in Gorham et al. (2007). Accordingly, 440 samples are new in this context. 14 peatland sites are in Russia, 42 in Europe and 82 in North America. The apparently low number of peatlands in Russia is a consequence of the difficulty to get access to the studies made in Russian. 51 peatlands contained seven or more dates per site with a total of 615 dates, while 29 peatlands have 10 or more basal dates, of which 15 are from North America, 13 from Europe and one from Russia. This shows that our data base contains several sites that have been studied in the level of detail as indicated in Fig. 1. We analyzed the compiled data set by raw number of initiation/ extension dates, and assigned a value of peatland initiation based on the basal dates. To illustrate regional differences in peatland dynamics we also produced spatial representations from the data set in ArcGIS. 3. Results Our data source inventory resulted in a total of 2212 sites and 3146 radiocarbon dates, geospatially widely distributed across the 3 northern areas, of which 138 sites and 954 radiocarbon dates fulfilled our criterion of multiple dates per site (Fig. 2; Supplementary Table 1). The total number of sites is naturally smaller when using the new-screened data set (Fig. 2A) in comparison to the data set including peatlands with only single basal dates (Fig. 2B), and some very large areas such as eastern Siberia and Greenland have almost no data at all. Also, there are only a very limited amount of dates older than 12 ka and only a few dates older than 11 ka in our new data set, which however does not mean the lack of peatlands during the lateglacial times (see, e.g., Turunen, 2003; Gorham et al., 2007). There was a limited amount of information about the trophic status of the peatlands in the literature. On the basis of 254 sites that contain such information (Tables S1 and S2), peatlands in Europe and Russia appear to be predominantly minerotrophic north of the 65th latitude and more commonly ombrotrophic south of it. In North America this boundary follows ca. the 55th latitude, but in reality it varies greatly between the western and eastern part of the continent and e.g., the marshes on the east coast are abundantly minerotrophic also south of this boundary. In general, our survey indicates that Arctic peatlands are mostly minerotrophic, which is in good agreement with Ruuhijärvi (1983). Our data set on age dating of basal peat layers documents the spreading of peatlands in the Circum-Arctic domain (Fig. 3), and is thought to be proportional to methane emissions (Fig. 4B). Fig. 3 illustrates the expansion dynamics of northern peatlands in 1000 yrs time windows, showing that the expansion rates have varied greatly during Holocene. A particularly pronounced and spatially evenly distributed acceleration in peatland extent seem to have taken place around 5 ka. A more thorough examination of the basal age frequency data based on multiple datings per site (Fig. 4D) revealed several patterns that differ markedly from a figure obtained if only the single oldest date of peat initiation was used (Fig. 4F). First, the rapid establishment of peatlands in the early Holocene (11–8 ka) following ice retreat and the exposure of land surfaces was clearly evident in our data. Second, there was a general declining trend in expansion rates between 8 and 5 ka. Finally, a substantial increase in the rate of peatland expansion occurred at around 5 ka (Fig. 4D). This latter pattern becomes even more evident, the higher the criteria of basal peat assays per site was set, Fig. 2. Map of geospatial location of peatlands with basal peat radiocarbon datings. A) Sites with one or two basal peat dates per peatland. B) Sites with three or more dates per a single peatland. Please cite this article in press as: Korhola, A., et al., The importance of northern peatland expansion to the late-Holocene rise of atmospheric methane, Quaternary Science Reviews (2010), doi:10.1016/j.quascirev.2009.12.010 ARTICLE IN PRESS 4 A. Korhola et al. / Quaternary Science Reviews xxx (2010) 1–7 Fig. 3. Time and location of peatland initiation and lateral expansion of multiple dated peatlands in 1000 years time slices (cal. yr BP). The red dots indicate the number of basal peat samples from each single peatland in the given time interval. N ¼ 954. Please cite this article in press as: Korhola, A., et al., The importance of northern peatland expansion to the late-Holocene rise of atmospheric methane, Quaternary Science Reviews (2010), doi:10.1016/j.quascirev.2009.12.010 ARTICLE IN PRESS A. Korhola et al. / Quaternary Science Reviews xxx (2010) 1–7 5 Fig. 4. Timing of areal extension of circumarctic peatland complexes compared with June insolation at 60 N, North Greenland Ice Core Project (NGRIP) d18O values, atmospheric CH4 concentrations, and estimate source strength of northern peatlands. A) June insolation at 60 N [yellow (Berger and Loutre, 1991)] and NGRIP d18O values [blue (Vinther et al., 2006; Rasmussen et al., 2006)]. B) Atmospheric CH4 concentrations as reconstructed from Greenland ice cores [blue (Blunier et al., 1995)]. C) Model-derived estimates of total methane sources north of 30 N based on interpolar CH4 concentration gradients as obtained from ice core records [blue (Chappellaz et al., 1997; Dällenbach et al., 2000)]. D) The occurrence frequency of 954 radiocarbon multidates (3 dates per site) of basal peat layers in 1000 years time slices. E) The occurrence frequency of 615 radiocarbon multidates (7 dates per site) of basal peat layers in 1000 years time slices. F) The occurrence frequency of 2212 oldest radiocarbon assays of basal peat layers in 1000 years time slices (referring to the first initiation peat formation at each site). i.e. the more basal dates we added (Fig. 4E, >7 basal peat dates per a peatland), thus reinforcing our interpretation that most of the expansion of northern peatlands took place only during the lateHolocene times after 6 ka. 4. Discussion and conclusions In principle, the overall pattern we observe in peatland expansion follows the records of the variation in atmospheric methane Please cite this article in press as: Korhola, A., et al., The importance of northern peatland expansion to the late-Holocene rise of atmospheric methane, Quaternary Science Reviews (2010), doi:10.1016/j.quascirev.2009.12.010 ARTICLE IN PRESS 6 A. Korhola et al. / Quaternary Science Reviews xxx (2010) 1–7 concentration that have been obtained from ice cores for the Holocene (Fig. 4B): AMC rose along general peatland initiation in northern hemisphere, but this increase was probably also substantially contributed by emissions from tropical wetlands (Chappellaz et al., 1993) and methane bubbling from Siberian thermokarst lakes (Walter et al., 2007). Methane concentration declined during the mid Holocene mainly due to drying of tropical wetlands (Street-Perrot, 1993), whereas northern mires remained as weak methane sources (Blunier et al., 1995 and Fig. 4D). According to our new multidate peat data base, the horizontal expansion of northern peatlands during the Holocene was most intensive between 5 and 3 ka (Figs. 3 and 4D). Where palaeobotanical analyses from the peats are available, they suggest that this late-Holocene lateral extension took place largely at a time when the mires were still mostly minerotrophic (e.g., Korhola, 1994, 1995, 1996; Almquist-Jacobson and Foster, 1995). In addition, the margins of spreading ombrotrophic bogs are always minerotrophic. Since 3 ka the rate of peatland expansion gradually slowed down, most probably because at this time essentially most areas that are potentially suitable for the peat accumulation were already covered by peat (Ruuhijärvi, 1983). However, methane emissions still continued to rise, because most Arctic wetlands remained minerotrophic being moist fens even today. Changes in climate presumably affected the extent of wetlands causing variations in the methane production from northern ecosystems. The areal expansion of peatlands within the northern area was considerably reduced during the Holocene Thermal Maximum (Fig. 4), when many arctic lakes also dried up (e.g., Korhola et al., 2005; Väliranta et al., 2005). The accelerated mire expansion at around 5 ka is probably a response to increased moisture availability associated with the orbitally driven Neoglacial cooling trend (Fig. 4A and B), which is evident in many records from the northern subpolar regions after the Holocene Thermal Maximum (see, e.g., Snowball et al., 2001 and references therein). Moisture and temperature patterns vary regionally, but there are many lines of proxy evidence that moisture is inversely correlated to temperature on a large scale. Although cool and wet climate would decrease peatland emission rates (per unit area), reduced evaporation would increase peatland extent, resulting in higher net biogenic emissions (Ferretti et al., 2005). The frequency distribution of basal peat dates shares many features with the AMC inferred from the CH4 mixing ratio in gas bubbles from the Greenland ice cores, in particular with regard to the late-Holocene rise after 5 ka (Fig. 4C), suggesting a change in source location from south to north (Chappellaz et al., 1997). Furthermore, we observe that the peatland expansion intensity inferred from the frequency distribution of the basal peat dates shows similar trends as the Holocene methane emission intensity as inferred from the paleo net primary production (PNPP) for a Swiss peat bog (Steinmann et al., 2006). Thus, the methane emissions from the northern peatlands have certainly boosted at that time and significantly contributed to AMC during the late Holocene. The carbon balance of peatlands is determined primarily by a trade-off between carbon sequestration and the methane fluxes in the course of peatland succession. In terms of radiative forcing (RF), atmospheric model simulations on northern peatlands show that after peat initiation the net RF impact begins as a net warming that peaks after about 50 years, remains a diminishing net warming for the next several hundred or several thousand years and thereafter is or will be an ever increasing net cooling impact (Frolking et al., 2006). A 3D landscape model applied to the well-studied Reksuo bog (Fig. 1) in southern Finland demonstrated that in this 8900 years old mire a net warming effect prevailed for about 6000 years, during which time the peatland complex exerted a warming potential of 53 kg carbon dioxide equivalents (CO2-eq) per square meter (Korhola et al., 1996). About 2.5 ka ago the net RF impact turned negative (cooling), when the sink of CO2 exceeded the warming effect of the CH4 emissions. In addition, the vast majority of Arctic wetlands have remained minerotrophic, high-emitting fens, throughout their subsequent development. Hence, substantial horizontal spread of northern peatlands between 5 and 3 ka could potentially have contributed to the increased CH4 levels in atmosphere for much longer time that suggested by the period of intensive expansion itself. We postulate that northern mires contributed to the increasing AMC levels for much of the preindustrial period, although actual net warming impact of the wetland-derived CH4 emissions was probably not able to counteract the large orbital cooling impact during the late Holocene. Although we cannot disapprove the anthropogenic explanation for the late-Holocene methane record on the basis of the current data, our results strongly suggest that the contribution of northern peatlands cannot be excluded when seeking causes for the rise in AMC over the past millennia. It is even likely that the late-Holocene expansion rate of peatlands inferred here may be badly underestimated due to practises related to peat sampling. Because younger peatlands tend to be shallower, they are less likely to be chosen for analysis by peatland paleoecologists, who traditionally seek long stratigraphic sections for their work. For example, very few dates are available from the Hudson Bay Lowland (e.g., Gorham et al., 2007, see Fig. 2), the second largest peatland complex in the world, which is comprised of younger peats than average because of the gradual isostatic rebound of the area. This paper makes a first attempt to assess the dynamics of lateral expansion of northern peatlands from a global database. Because the data sets are highly variable in details, and the northern peatlands were not collectively sampled with such a numerical analysis in mind, our analysis should be considered somewhat qualitative. However, our ultimate aim is to refine the compiled database in future and include quantitative approaches and ecosystem modelling to achieve more quantitative estimates of the spatiotemporal contribution of northern peatlands to Holocene AMC. Finally, our inference about the contribution of northern wetland ecosystems to AMC has implications also for the future carbon balance. Annual total precipitation is projected to increase by roughly 20% over the Arctic by 2100, with most of the additional precipitation in the form of rain. This may result in moisture excess, higher water tables, and a new pulse of peatland spreading. A similar event than the observed late-Holocene peatland initiation could strengthen climate change in future by causing a rapid shift in atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations. Acknowledgements We thank the Science Workshop on Past, Present and Future Climate Dynamics held in Helsinki in November 2008 for fruitful discussions. 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