ICES Advice on fishing opportunities, catch and effort
Barents Sea and Norwegian Sea Ecoregions
3.3.9
Published 10 June 2016
Saithe (Pollachius virens) in subareas 1 and 2 (Northeast Arctic)
ICES stock advice
ICES advises that when the Norwegian management plan is applied, catches in 2017 should be no more than 150 000 t.
Bycatches of coastal cod (Gadus morhua) and golden redfish (Sebastes norvegicus) in fisheries targeting saithe in subareas 1
and 2 should be kept as low as possible.
Stock development over time
The spawning-stock biomass (SSB) has shown wide fluctuations and has been above Bpa since 1996 The fishing pressure (F) has
been below Fpa since 1997, with the exception of 2010 and 2011. Recruitment (R) has fluctuated with no clear trend.
Figure 3.3.9.1
Saithe in subareas 1 and 2. Historical development of the stock from the summary of stock assessment (weights in thousand
tonnes). Recruitment (R), fishing pressure (F), and spawning-stock biomass (SSB) have uncertainty boundaries (95%) in the
plots. Predicted recruitment values are not shaded. For this stock, SSBMGT = Bpa; therefore, the horizontal lines representing
these points in the graph overlap.
Stock and exploitation status
Table 3.3.9.1
Saithe in subareas 1 and 2. State of the stock and fishery relative to reference points.
Fishing pressure
Stock size
2013
2014
2015
2014
2015
MSY
Maximum
FMSY
Undefined
sustainable yield
Btrigger
Harvested
Precautionary
Fpa,
Bpa, Blim
approach
Flim
sustainably
Management
FMGT
Below
SSBMGT
plan
ICES Advice 2016, Book 3
2016
Undefined
Full reproductive
capacity
Above
1
Published 10 June 2016
ICES Advice on fishing opportunities, catch and effort
Catch forecast and outlook
Table 3.3.9.2
Saithe in subareas 1 and 2. The basis for the catch options.
Variable
Value
Source
Notes
F ages 4–7 (2016)
0.28
ICES (2016a)
TAC constraint
SSB(2017)
366 kt
ICES (2016a)
Rage3 (2016 onwards)
157 million
ICES (2016a)
Geometric mean (1960–2015)
Total catch (2016)
140 kt
ICES (2016a)
TAC
Table 3.3.9.3
Saithe in subareas 1 and 2. The catch options. Weights are in thousand tonnes.
Rationale
Catches (2017)
Basis
F (2017)
SSB (2018)
Management plan
150
FMP
0.30
341
Precautionary approach
169
Fpa
0.35
326
Zero catch
0
F=0
0
480
74
Fsq(2016) × 0.5
0.14
411
Other options
138
Fsq(2016) × 1.0
0.28
352
167
Fsq(2016) × 1.25
0.345
326
* SSB 2018 relative to SSB 2017.
** Catch in 2017 relative to TAC 2016.
% SSB change *
−7
−11
31
12
−4
−11
% TAC change **
7
21
−100
−47
−1
19
Basis of the advice
Table 3.3.9.4
Saithe in subareas 1 and 2. The basis of the assessment and advice.
Advice basis
Norwegian management plan.
Management plan
The harvest control rule as revised in 2013 and communicated to ICES by the Norwegian Ministry of
Fisheries and Coastal Affairs contains the following elements:
•
•
•
Estimate the average TAC level for the coming 3 years based on Fmp= 0.32*. TAC for the next
year will be set to this level as a starting value for the 3-year period.
The year after, the TAC calculation for the next 3 years is repeated based on the updated
information about the stock development. However, the TAC should not be changed by
more than +/− 15% compared with the previous year’s TAC.
If the spawning-stock biomass (SSB) in the beginning of the year for which the quota is set
(first year of prediction), is below Bpa, the procedure for establishing TAC should be based on
a fishing mortality that is linearly reduced from Fmp at SSB = Bpa to 0 at SSB equal to zero. At
SSB levels below Bpa in any of the operational years (current year and 3 years of prediction)
there should be no limitations on the year-to-year variations in TAC.
* Fmp was formerly 0.35.
2
ICES Advice 2016, Book 3
ICES Advice on fishing opportunities, catch, and effort
Published 10 June 2016
Quality of the assessment
The low level of biological sampling of commercial catches continued to be an issue in 2015 and will affect the precision of the
catch-, weight-, and maturity-at-age data. Poor sampling of commercial catches is impairing the quality of the assessment and
the advice. Because reliable recruitment estimates are lacking, predicted catches are dependent upon assumptions of average
recruitment.
Recreational catches are not included in the assessment.
Figure 3.3.9.2
Saithe in subareas 1 and 2. Historical assessment results (final-year recruitment estimates included). The year 2013 is
omitted because no assessment was accepted. The assessment model changed from XSA to SAM in 2014.
Issues relevant for the advice
Fisheries targeting Northeast Arctic (NEA) saithe has as a bycatch golden redfish (Sebastes norvegicus) and is considerable part
of the total catch. This bycatch of golden redfish is still far above any sustainable catch level. Measures to minimise bycatch
levels are essential.
Bycatch of coastal cod should be kept as low as possible in order to obtain the reductions in fishing mortality implied by the
coastal cod (Gadus morhua) rebuilding plan (ICES, 2010).
Reference points
Table 3.3.9.5
Saithe in subareas 1 and 2. Reference points, values, and their technical basis.
Reference
Framework
Value
Technical basis
point
MSY Btrigger
Not defined.
MSY approach
FMSY
Not defined.
Blim
136 kt Change point in segmented regression.
Bpa
220 kt Blim × exp(1.645 × σ), where σ = 0.3.
Precautionary
approach
Flim
0.58 F corresponding to an equilibrium stock = Blim.
Fpa
0.35 Flim × exp(−1.645 × σ), where σ = 0.3.
SSBMGT
220 kt Bpa, F is linearly reduced from Fpa at SSB = Bpa to zero at SSB = 0.
Management
plan
FMP
0.32 Average TAC for the coming three years based on FMP.
ICES Advice 2016, Book 3
Reference
ICES (2005)
ICES (2005)
ICES (2005)
ICES (2005)
ICES (2011)
ICES (2011)
3
Published 10 June 2016
ICES Advice on fishing opportunities, catch and effort
Basis of the assessment
Table 3.3.9.6
Saithe in subareas 1 and 2 (Northeast Arctic). The basis of the assessment.
1 (ICES, 2016b)
ICES stock data category
Age-based analytical assessment (SAM; ICES, 2016a) that uses landings in the model and in the
Assessment type
forecast.
Commercial catches (international landings, ages and length frequencies from Norwegian, German,
and Russian catch sampling); one survey index (NOcoast-Aco-4Q, split in 2002); three-year running
Input data
average maturity based on spawning zones from otoliths from commercial catches and surveys for
1985–2006, constant (2005–2007 average) for later years.
Discarding is considered negligible. Bycatch is included.
Discards and bycatch
None
Indicators
An inter-benchmark was undertaken in 2014 (ICES IBP NEA SAITHE; ICES, 2014).
Other information
Arctic Fisheries Working Group (AFWG)
Working group
Information from stakeholders
There is no available information.
4
ICES Advice 2016, Book 3
ICES Advice on fishing opportunities, catch, and effort
Published 10 June 2016
History of the advice, catch, and management
Table 3.3.9.7
Saithe in subareas 1 and 2 (Northeast Arctic). History of ICES advice, the agreed TAC, and ICES estimates of landings.
Weights are in thousand tonnes.
Predicted catch
Agreed
Official
ICES
Year ICES advice
corresp. to
TAC*
landings
landings
advice
1987 No increase in F; TAC; protect juveniles
90
92
92
1988 No increase in F
< 83
114
114
1989 Status quo F; TAC
120
120
123
123
1990 F ≤ Fmed; TAC
93
103
96
96
1991 F at Flow; TAC
90
100
107
107
1992 Within safe biological limits
115
115
128
128
1993 Within safe biological limits
132#
132
155
155
1994 No increase in F
158#
145
147
147
1995 No increase in F
221#
165
168
168
1996 No increase in F
158#
163
171
171
1997 Reduction of F to Fmed or below
107
125
144
144
1998 Reduction of F to Fmed or below
117
145##
153
153
1999 Reduce F below Fpa
87
144###
150
150
2000 Reduce F below Fpa
89
125^
136
136
2001 Reduce F below Fpa
< 115
135
136
136
2002 Maintain F below Fpa
< 152
162^^
155
155
2003 Maintain F below Fpa
< 168
164
162
162
2004 Maintain F below Fpa
< 186
169
165
165
2005 Take account of Sebastes marinus bycatch. Maintain F below Fpa
< 215
215
179
179
2006 Take account of Sebastes marinus bycatch. Maintain F below Fpa
< 202
193.5
213
213
2007 Take account of Sebastes marinus bycatch. Maintain F below Fpa
< 247
222.525
199
199
2008 Take account of Sebastes marinus bycatch. Maintain F below Fhcr
< 247
< 247
185
185
2009 Take account of Sebastes marinus bycatch. Apply management plan
< 225
225
162
162
2010 Take account of Sebastes marinus bycatch. Apply management plan
< 204
204
195
195
2011 Take account of Sebastes marinus bycatch. Apply management plan
< 173
173
157
157
Take account of coastal cod and Sebastes marinus bycatch. Apply
2012
< 164
164
161
161
management plan.
Take account of coastal cod and Sebastes marinus bycatch. Apply
2013
< 164
140^^^
132
132
management plan.
Take account of coastal cod and Sebastes marinus bycatch. Stabilize
2014
< 140
119^^^
132
132
SSB.
Take account of coastal cod and Sebastes norvegicus** bycatch.
2015
< 122
122
132
132
Apply management plan.
Take account of coastal cod and Sebastes norvegicus** bycatch.
2016
< 140
140
Apply management plan.
Take account of coastal cod and Sebastes norvegicus** bycatch.
2017
≤ 150
Apply management plan.
# Predicted catch at status quo F.
## TAC first set at 125 000 t, then increased in May 1998 after an intersessional assessment.
### TAC set after an intersessional assessment in December 1998.
^ TAC set after an intersessional assessment in December 1999.
^^ TAC first set at 152 000 t, then increased in June 2003 after the spring 2002 assessment.
^^^ Set by Norwegian authorities based on national advice where cpue was excluded from the assessment.
* TAC set by Norwegian authorities.
** Until 2014 this species was named Sebastes marinus. From 2015 it was decided to adopt the species list by WoRMS
(http://www.marinespecies.org/). The name used for this species will hence hereafter be Sebastes norvegicus.
ICES Advice 2016, Book 3
5
Published 10 June 2016
ICES Advice on fishing opportunities, catch and effort
History of catch and landings
Table 3.3.9.8
Saithe in subareas 1 and 2. Catch distribution by fleet in 2015 as estimated by ICES.
Total catch (2015)
132 kt
6
Commercial landings
42% trawl
23%
18%
purse-seine
gillnet
132 kt
17%
other gear types
Discards
Recreational catch
Discarding is
considered to be
negligible
Unknown, but not
negligible
ICES Advice 2016, Book 3
ICES Advice on fishing opportunities, catch and effort
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
23
61
2
20
1097
215
109
7
46
28
20
270
809
1117
532
236
339
539
503
490
426
712
441
388
1207
1700
3625
544
1110
1525
1618
2987
9472
193
14536
14519
11320
7119
3156
5609
5658
4345
2601
1016
218
82
418
431
657
308
576
411
460**
340**
ICES Advice 2016, Book 3
813
304
70
6744
29362
16840
7474
12015
29466
28517
10266
7164
6484
2435
6
11
25948
19757
12651
8108
4420
11387
11269
11822
4753
4355
23466
12204
24595
30338
33155
41260
49056
19985
19190
15323
12511
8431
7224
4933
4532
1873
3470
4909
4574
606
1143
96050
77875
101895
135297
184700
165531
175037
150860
96641
115140
151759
128499
143775
148789
152699
122598
131675
139705
121069
141346
128878
166139
159643
149556
152818
103899
63090
85710
108244
119625
92397
912
84
137
563
441
6017
1111
23
2521
3860
3164
1
35
6430
7233
783
203
43550
39397
1278
2411
28931
13389
9013
989
381
3
43
121
14
206
161
51
27
426
130
506
52
13097
13125
2115
7075
11397
21661
1327
121
685
780
33
506
9780
4595
4699
4112
6511
6741
13078
8379
8781
13585
15469
10361
8223
6841
3104
2763
4724
6935
2827
1170
794
395
732
1251
335
202
75
57
442
726
709
Total all countries
Others^^
UK
Spain
Russian
Federation***
Portugal
Poland
Norway
Iceland
Fed. Rep. Germany
Germany Dem. Rep
Greenland
Saithe in subareas 1 and 2. History of commercial landings. ICES estimated values are presented for each country participating in the fishery. Weights are
in tonnes.
France
Faroes
Year
Table 3.3.9.9
Published 10 June 2016
14
18
4
186
181
41
48
23
5
55
65
1
133515
105951
120707
148627
197426
185600
203788
181326
110247
140060
264924
241272
214334
213859
264121
233453
242486
182817
155464
164680
144554
175540
168034
156936
158786
107183
67396
92391
114242
122817
95848
7
1991
963
77**
2003
1992
165
1980
734
3451
1993
31
566
78
3687
1994
67**
557
15
1863
1995
172**
358
53
935
1996
248**
346
165
2615
1997
193**
560
363**
2915
1998
366
932
437**
2936
1999
181
638**
655**
2473
2000
224**
1438
651**
2573
2001
537
1279
701**
2690
2002
788
1048
1393
2642
2003
2056
1022
929**
2763
2004
3071
255
891**
2161
2005
3152
447
817**
2048
2006
1795
899
786**
2779
2007
2048
966
810**
3019
2008
2314
1009
503**
2263
2009
1611**
326
697
2021
2010
1632
677
954
1592
2011
112
367
445
1371
2012
146
781
658
1371
2013
80
1901
972
1326^^^
2014
273
1674
407
259
2015*
576
514
393
424
* Provisional figures.
** As reported to Norwegian authorities.
*** USSR prior to 1991.
^ Includes Estonia.
^^ Includes Denmark, Netherlands, Ireland, and Sweden.
^^^ As reported by Working Group members.
8
3
4**
146
33
57
78
80**
319
395
255
219
113
69
109**
65
126
290**
659
249
103283
119763
140604
141589
165001
166045
136927
144103
141941
125932
124928
142941
150400
147975
162338
195462
178644
165998
144570
174544
143314
143145
111962
115798
114830
89
99
66
30
279
2
1
1154
1
1**
5
24
12
47
17
46
75
118
147
127
354
339**
412
348
204**
93
46
23**
17
8
10
504^
964
9509
1640**
1148
1159
1774
3836
3929
4452
4951
5402
3894
9192
8362
9823
12168
11577
11899
14664
10007
13607
14796
12396
13181
6
4**
655**
6
41
275
24
117
119
37
18
87
25
21**
53**
33**
2**
8
2
4
5
12
34
492
541
415
557
688
707
799
355
339
454
514
420
265
544
630
532
558
506
379
283
972
1000
433
518
400
Total all countries
Others^^
UK
Spain
Russian
Federation***
Portugal
Poland
Norway
Iceland
Fed. Rep. Germany
Germany Dem. Rep
ICES Advice on fishing opportunities, catch and effort
Greenland
France
Year
Faroes
Published 10 June 2016
5
5
2
18
33
45
40
32
8**
2
3
18**
14
42
12
10
45**
2**
15
4**
22
ICES Advice 2016, Book 3
107327
127604
154903
146950
168378
171348
143629
153327
150375
135928
135853
154870
161592
164636
178568
212822
199008
184740
161853
194837
156716
160865
131806
132005
131765
ICES Advice on fishing opportunities, catch and effort
Published 10 June 2016
Summary of the assessment
Table 3.3.9.10
Saithe in subareas 1 and 2. Assessment summary. Weights are in tonnes. CI = confidence interval.
Year
Recruitment
Age 3
thousands
High
(includes
95% CI)
Low
(includes
95% CI)
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
84881
114577
203822
271305
81879
254486
134457
175255
143774
262498
222126
230038
153430
201390
100609
167544
217075
199386
133786
193494
117243
224583
128156
101417
93246
101722
174207
138829
78826
76880
86509
224583
281250
207939
149044
277895
161297
162755
102847
235155
151903
200988
312075
134996
148153
392385
69982
111636
136320
174786
309255
411210
125197
385339
203118
265221
217280
398276
335246
345594
230268
302223
151676
251641
326916
299365
201032
290669
175975
339667
193007
153188
141393
154184
265359
209760
120377
116983
132341
340326
426181
313069
219705
410964
236670
239139
150732
344724
222584
292085
443015
192298
214302
560509
99728
158584
52851
75108
134333
179000
53549
168067
89006
115807
95136
173009
147175
153120
102232
134199
66736
111551
144140
132797
89035
128806
78112
148491
85095
67143
61494
67111
114366
91884
51618
50525
56549
148203
185606
138112
101110
187914
109928
110769
70174
160412
103667
138303
219837
94769
102422
274690
49109
78587
ICES Advice 2016, Book 3
SSB
461390
454976
460008
456343
479740
518658
479740
491885
471182
511447
566368
554599
537132
537132
492377
398714
282377
210239
189473
171099
151146
154817
135673
161781
145947
111525
83952
71826
86250
100108
117948
114348
94940
97343
148005
196025
243531
243045
291851
307429
366590
369904
435827
421258
501320
582451
519177
533919
High
(includes
95% CI)
Low
(includes
95% CI)
630041
615457
616442
605216
626761
670367
624246
634759
609382
647815
703132
680838
654056
646673
589949
476138
339425
253605
227018
205042
181170
186568
163499
196637
176811
134524
101397
86678
104877
129312
148129
139830
113287
117247
182572
244576
299341
297586
356939
380636
453178
451127
523432
501757
591936
691245
611921
628264
337885
336341
343273
344091
367207
401282
368686
381170
364324
403786
456206
451766
441111
446147
410942
333880
234918
174288
158137
142776
126097
128470
112582
133104
120471
92457
69508
59519
70931
77499
93916
93510
79564
80819
119982
157113
198126
198499
238633
248302
296547
303306
362884
353673
424576
490779
440490
453742
Landings
133515
105951
120707
148627
197426
185600
203788
181326
110247
140060
264924
241272
214334
213859
264121
233453
242486
182817
155464
164680
144554
175540
168034
156936
158786
107183
67396
92391
114242
122817
95848
107327
127604
154903
146950
168378
171348
143629
153327
150375
135928
135853
154870
161592
164636
178568
212822
199008
Mean F
Ages 4–7
High
(includes
95% CI)
Low
(includes
95% CI)
0.276
0.233
0.233
0.247
0.284
0.29
0.299
0.279
0.202
0.195
0.308
0.326
0.321
0.358
0.479
0.538
0.571
0.5
0.551
0.585
0.564
0.559
0.556
0.602
0.709
0.634
0.548
0.621
0.607
0.487
0.547
0.508
0.604
0.534
0.48
0.375
0.362
0.257
0.256
0.258
0.231
0.204
0.2
0.192
0.182
0.213
0.25
0.259
0.387
0.32
0.317
0.332
0.379
0.386
0.398
0.373
0.271
0.261
0.403
0.423
0.415
0.458
0.607
0.678
0.718
0.632
0.692
0.734
0.707
0.702
0.7
0.754
0.883
0.795
0.689
0.772
0.757
0.615
0.689
0.642
0.757
0.67
0.607
0.479
0.464
0.333
0.333
0.337
0.302
0.267
0.259
0.249
0.238
0.276
0.324
0.335
0.196
0.17
0.172
0.184
0.213
0.218
0.224
0.208
0.15
0.146
0.236
0.251
0.248
0.279
0.378
0.426
0.453
0.396
0.438
0.467
0.449
0.445
0.442
0.481
0.57
0.507
0.435
0.499
0.487
0.385
0.434
0.402
0.482
0.425
0.379
0.293
0.282
0.198
0.197
0.198
0.177
0.157
0.154
0.148
0.14
0.164
0.194
0.2
9
Published 10 June 2016
Year
Recruitment
Age 3
thousands
2008
210029
2009
145947
2010
263550
2011
104193
2012
152055
2013
208772
2014
91583
2015
137861
2016
156678*
Average
169526
*Predicted (GM 1960–2015).
ICES Advice on fishing opportunities, catch and effort
High
(includes
95% CI)
Low
(includes
95% CI)
296470
206125
370363
148562
215049
297598
135050
221771
148791
103338
187542
73075
107514
146459
62106
85699
252116
114396
SSB
463240
356112
320616
284361
290686
311141
350459
356825
391404
326976
High
(includes
95% CI)
Low
(includes
95% CI)
552163
424785
382390
341708
352600
389368
450593
478428
388637
298541
268822
236638
239644
248630
272578
266130
403980
263267
Mean F
Ages 4–7
High
(includes
95% CI)
Low
(includes
95% CI)
184740
161853
194837
156716
160865
131806
132005
131765
0.322
0.345
0.383
0.382
0.358
0.294
0.267
0.266
0.414
0.442
0.491
0.492
0.464
0.389
0.362
0.38
0.251
0.27
0.3
0.297
0.277
0.223
0.197
0.186
161252
0.384
0.492
0.3
Landings
Sources and references
ICES. 2005. Report of the Arctic Fisheries Working Group (AFWG), 19–28 April 2005, Murmansk, Russia. ICES CM
2005/ACFM:20. 564 pp.
ICES. 2010. Request by the Norwegian ministry of fisheries and coastal affairs: Evaluation of a rebuilding plan for coastal cod.
In Report of the ICES Advisory Committee, 2010. ICES Advice 2010, Book 3, Section 3.3.3.1.
ICES. 2011. Report of the Arctic Fisheries Working Group (AFWG), 28 April–4 May 2011, Hamburg, Germany. ICES CM
2011/ACOM:05. 659 pp.
ICES. 2014. Report of the Inter-Benchmark Protocol on Northeast Arctic Saithe in Subareas I and II (IBP NEAsaithe), March/April
2014, by correspondence. ICES CM 2014/ACOM:53. 94 pp.
ICES. 2016a. Report of the Arctic Fisheries Working Group (AFWG), 19–25 April 2016, ICES HQ, Copenhagen, Denmark. ICES CM
2016/ACOM:06.
ICES. 2016b. General context of ICES advice. In Report of the ICES Advisory Committee, 2016. ICES Advice 2016, Book 1, Section
1.2.
10
ICES Advice 2016, Book 3