10-19%
20-29%
CE CFO Survey
Signs of optimism
30-39%
Latvia
Lithuania
About the CE CFO Survey
The 5th
CE CFO Survey is a unique collection of 13
9
Polandlocally tailored reports reflecting opinions of almost
600 CFOs of leading companies from the Central
6
European region. The findings are based on a survey
undertaken from October to November 2013 in 13
3
countries in the region - Albania and Kosovo, Bosnia
and Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Croatia, the Czech Republic,
Slovakia 0
Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Romania, Serbia,
Slovakia and Slovenia. The survey captures shifts in
-3 opinions on factors including risks, GDP growth
CFOs’
Hungary
and financing priorities. Romania
c
Croatia
ase
Lithuania
40-49%
50-59%
60-69%
Poland
70-79%
80-89%
-6
CE CFO Survey Findings
• Despite
signs of optimism, the majority of CFOs in
-9
Serbia
Bosnia
-Herzegovina Central Europe believe that the time has not yet
come
to take more risk onBulgaria
to company balance
-12
sheets
• Many CFOs plan to reduce gearing levels, associated
-15
with a corresponding
expectation
of higher
financing
1st Survey
2nd Survey
3rd Survey
February 2012
November 2012
costsAlbaniaJune 2011
• While talent shortages are not of concern to most
participating CFOs, there are opportunities for
experienced financial professionals around the region
• The top priority for next year, shared
by many CFOs
Decrease
in Central Europe, is simply to grow their revenues
Latvia
Figure 1: No, this is not a good time to take greater
risk on to company balance sheet
Czech Republic
90-100%
Slovakia
Hungary
Romania
4th Survey
June 2013
5th Survey
January 2014
Slovenia
Croatia
Serbia
Bosnia
-Herzegovina
Bulgaria
Neutral
CFO views on risk-taking
Increase
The majority of CFOs in all countries
except Lithuania
believe that now is not the time to take greater risks on
to company balance sheets. The diversity of opinion on
Figure 2: CE CFO Confidence Index
risk-taking across the region is notable: in Slovenia, no
Latvia
CFOs at all believe that their company should increase
Revenue growth
Slovakia
its riskBosnia
exposure;
Current markets
and 57% of Lithuanian CFOs, meanwhile,
9
Herzegovina
Croatia
are willing
to leverage their growth potential. It is also
Lithuania
Cost reduction
worth noting
the relatively high proportion of CFOs
6Poland
Indirect cost
Bulgaria
who appear ready to take more risk in the three largest
Albania
economies of the region: Poland (39%), the Czech
3Serbia
Decrease
Improved
Republic
(30%) and Romania (30%).
Liquidity
Slovenia
Neutral
CE CFO Confidence Index
The CERomania
CFO Confidence Index tracks
the evolution of
Increase
Lithuania Czech Republic
CFO sentiments
regarding their companies’ financial
Hungary
Latvia
prospects across many sectors and geographies.
Revenue growth
New
markets
We have
taken
into account accumulated opinions
Croatia
from the five largest countries in the region: Poland,
the Czech Republic, Romania, Hungary and Slovakia
and weighted the influence of CFOs’ sentiments
from different countries by the relative size of their
economies, to best represent the overall expectations
for changing regional dynamics.
No change
73.3% Decrease Lithuania
Latvia
70.6%
Poland Neutral
45.8%
Albania
Decre
Neutr
Increa
0
-3
-6
Czech Republic
-9
-12
-1
-15
-1
Decre
1st Survey
June 2011
2nd Survey
February 2012
3rd Survey
November 2012
73.3% Increase
72.5%
64.3%
4th Survey
June 2013
5th Survey
January 2014
Lithuania
Latvia
Croatia
Slovenia
Neutr
Croatia
Increa
-He
h
tia
nia
nd
ria
nia
bia
-9
Czech Republic
Slovakia
60-69%
Slovakia
Latvia
-12
Hungary
70-79%
9
-15
1st Survey
June 2011
5th Survey 6
January 2014
2nd Survey
February 2012
Slovenia
Hungary
3rd Survey
November 2012
4th Survey
June 2013
Lithuania
5th Survey
Romania
January 2014
Slovenia
Croatia
80-89%
Croatia
3
Bosnia
90-100%
-Herzegovina
Serbia
Bosnia
-Herzegovina
0
Romania
Serbia
Bulgaria
Bulgaria
Poland
-3
Albania
-6
-9
Albania
Figure 3: Company business focus for the next 12 months
Latvia
Revenue growth
Current markets
-12 Slovakia
Bosnia and
Herzegovina
-15 Cost reduction
Survey
Indirect1st
cost
June 2011
2nd Survey
February 2012
3rd Survey
November 2012
Croatia
Lithuania
Poland
4th Survey
Bulgaria
June 2013
Albania
Serbia
Improved
Liquidity
Slovenia
Romania
Czech Republic
Hungary
Czech Republic
Seeking growth from current or new markets is the most
Slovakia
common top priority among CE CFOs. The growthseeking group of countries includes the largest
economies
in the region: Poland, the Czech
Republic,
Hungary
Decrease
Romania and Hungary as well as Croatia and Lithuania.
5th In
Survey
Neutral
Bulgaria,
Albania Slovenia
and Serbia seeking revenue in
Croatia
January 2014
current markets might be hard to achieve as CFOs
Increase in all these markets. CFOs from Latvia,
expect stagnation
Serbia
Bosnia
Slovakia, and Bosnia and Herzegovina
expect to focus
-Herzegovina
on reducing indirect costs, while Slovenian CFOs stated
improving liquidity as their top priority.
Revenue growth
New markets
Romania
Neutral
Increase
Bulgaria
Albania
Figure 4: How CFOs expect levels of M&A activity to change
in their countries over the next 12 months
Latvia
Slovakia
Bosnia and
Herzegovina
Decrease
Revenue growth
Current markets
Croatia
Lithuania
73.3% Decrease Lithuania
Poland
Bulgaria
73.3%
Increase
Lithuania
Latvia
70.6%
Albania
Serbia
72.5%
Latvia
Poland
Neutral
45.8%
Improved
Liquidity
64.3%
Increase CroatiaSerbia
71.4%
Slovenia
41.4%
Slovenia
88.2% Albania
Romania
Czech Republic
Romania
40.7%
Hungary
Croatia
76.2%
Revenue growth
No change
Serbia
25%
New markets
Cost reduction
Indirect cost
Figure 5: How CFOs expect levels of unemployment to
change in their countries over the next 12 months
73.3% Decrease Lithuania
Latvia
70.6%
Poland Neutral
45.8%
Serbia
71.4% Increase
Slovenia
88.2%
Croatia
76.2%
CFOs will lead a great deal of M&A over the next year.
Decrease
The expected
increase in M&A activities in most markets
is a mean of seeking efficiency savings in times where
Neutral
the simple goal of revenue growth can be difficult to
Lithuania
achieve Increase
organically. Apart from countries displayed in
Latviaat very
the graph, also Slovenia and Poland, currently
different stages of the economic growth
cycle,
are
Croatia
expected to see much activity in mergers.
73.3% Increase
72.5%
64.3%
41.4% Albania
40.7% Romania
25% Serbia
25% Serbia
Decrease
Neutral
Neutral
Increase
Increase
No change
GDP growth is the key factor when we look at expected
changes in unemployment. The expected moderate
growth in Lithuania, Latvia and Poland corresponds with
anticipated decreases in the levels of unemployment
in these three countries. In all other countries, CFOs
Lithuania
expect fewer opportunities for job seekers and current
employees. In Slovenia, which remains in recession,
Latvia
the largest proportion of CFOs expect a significant
Croatia
increase in unemployment levels, and any expectations
of a significant increaseAlbania
in employment will need to wait
for GDP to grow fasterRomania
than 3%.
73.3% Increase
72.5%
64.3%
41.4%
40.7%
Decrease
No change
Contact us
CE CFO Programme leader CE Clients & Markets
Gavin Flook Iva Fišerová
[email protected] [email protected]
Decrease
Neutral
Increase