The Diffusion of New Institutions: Evidence from the
Renaissance Venice’s Patent System
Stefano Comino, Alberto Galasso and Clara Graziano
Wkh Glxvlrq ri Qhz Lqvwlwxwlrqv= Hylghqfh iurp wkh
Uhqdlvvdqfh Yhqlfh*v Sdwhqw V|vwhp 4
Vwhidqr Frplqr
Xqlyhuvlw| ri Xglqh
Doehuwr Jdodvvr
Xqlyhuvlw| ri Wrurqwr dqg QEHU
Fodud Jud}ldqr
Xqlyhuvlw| ri Xglqh dqg FHVlir
YHU\ SUHOLPLQDU\ GUDIW
Pdufk </ 534:
4
Zh duh lqghewhg wr Urehuwr Ehuyhjolhul iru qxphurxv glvfxvvlrqv derxw wkh Yhqhwldq sdwhqw v|vwhpv/
dqg wr Jlrydqql Fdqldwr/ Oxfldqr Sh}}ror dqg Dqguhd ]dqqlql iru surylglqj lqvljkwixo ghwdlov ri wkh
Yhqhwldq jxlog v|vwhp1 Zh wkdqn Plfkho Vhudqhool iru khosixo frpphqwv1 Zh wkdqn Odylqld Sdu}ldoh
iru surylglqj dffhvv wr jxlog gdwd1
Devwudfw
Zkdw idfwruv dhfw wkh glxvlrq ri qhz hfrqrplf lqvwlwxwlrqvB Wklv sdshu h{dplqhv wklv
txhvwlrq h{sorlwlqj wkh lqwurgxfwlrq ri wkh uvw uhjxodul}hg sdwhqw v|vwhp zklfk dsshduhg lq
wkh Yhqhwldq Uhsxeolf lq 47:71 Zh ehjlq e| ghyhorslqj d prgho zklfk olqnv sdwhqwlqj dfwlylw|
ri fudiw jxlogv zlwk surylvlrqv lq wkhlu vwdwxwhv1 Wkh prgho suhglfwv wkdw jxlog vwdwxwhv wkdw duh
pruh hhfwlyh dw suhyhqwlqj rxwvlghu*v hqwu| dqg dw plwljdwlqj sulfh frpshwlwlrq ohdg wr ohvv
sdwhqwlqj1 Zh whvw wklv suhglfwlrq rq d qhz gdwdvhw zklfk frpelqhv ghwdlohg lqirupdwlrq rq
fudiw jxlogv dqg sdwhqwv lq wkh Yhqhwldq Uhsxeolf gxulqj wkh Uhqdlvvdqfh1 Zh qg d qhjdwlyh
dvvrfldwlrq ehwzhhq sdwhqwlqj dfwlylw| dqg jxlog vwdwxwru| qrupv zklfk vwurqjo| uhvwulfw hqwu|
dqg sulfh frpshwlwlrq1 Zh dovr vkrz wkdw jxlogv zklfk ruljlqdwhg iurp phglhydo uholjlrxv
frqiudwhuqlwlhv zhuh pruh olnho| wr uhjxodwh hqwu| dqg frpshwlwlrq/ dqg wkdw wkh hhfw rq
sdwhqwlqj lv urexvw wr lqvwuxphqwlqj jxlog vwdwxwhv zlwk wkhlu txdvl0h{rjhqrxv uholjlrxv ruljlq1
Zh qg wkdw sdwhqwlqj zdv pruh zlghvsuhdg dprqj jxlogv jhrjudsklfdoo| glvwdqw iurp Yhqlfh/
dqg dprqj jxlogv lq flwlhv zlwk orzhu srolwlfdo frqqhfwlrq zklfk zh phdvxuh h{sorlwlqj d qhz
gdwdedvh rq qreoh idplolhv dqg wkhlu pduuldjhv zlwk phpehuv ri wkh Juhdw Frxqflo1 Rxu
dqdo|vlv vxjjhvwv wkdw orfdo hfrqrplf dqg srolwlfdo frqglwlrqv pd| kdyh d vxevwdqwldo lpsdfw
rq wkh glxvlrq ri qhz hfrqrplf lqvwlwxwlrqv1
Nh|zrugv= sdwhqwv/ frpshwlwlrq/ jxlogv/ lqvwlwxwlrqv1
MHO fodvvlfdwlrq= R66/ R67/ N56
4
Lqwurgxfwlrq
Wkh vrfldo/ hfrqrplf/ ohjdo dqg srolwlfdo rujdql}dwlrq ri d vrflhw|/ lwv lqvwlwxwlrqv/ lv d sulpdu|
ghwhuplqdqw ri hfrqrplf jurzwk +Dfhprjox dqg Mrkqvrq/ 5338,1 Lqvwlwxwlrqdo fkdqjh uhtxluhv
erwk wkh ghyhorsphqw dqg wkh glxvlrq ri qhz vrfldoo| ehqhfldo lqvwlwxwlrqv1 Lq sduwlfxodu/ wkh
lpsdfw ri qhz hfrqrplf lqvwlwxwlrqv 0 vxfk dv qryho irupv ri frqwudfwv ru surshuw| uljkwv zloo
ghshqg rq wkh udwh dw zklfk wkh| duh dgrswhg dqg glvsodfh roghu lqvwlwxwlrqv +Dfhprjox hw do1/
5338,1 Wkh ghyhorsphqw olwhudwxuh kdv lghqwlhg d ydulhw| ri idfwruv h{sodlqlqj wkh lqwhuqdwlrqdo
glxvlrq ri qhz lqvwlwxwlrqv/ vxfk dv kxpdq fdslwdo +Jodhvhu hw do1/ 5337,/ fxowxuh +Wdehoolql/
5343, dqg jhrjudsk| +Frplq hw do1/ 5345,1 Rq wrs ri wkhvh qdwlrqdo yduldeohv/ wkh udwh ri
dgrswlrq ri qryho hfrqrplf lqvwlwxwlrqv lv dovr olnho| wr eh dhfwhg e| orfdo frqglwlrqv 0 vxfk
dv lqgxvwu| frpsrvlwlrq ru wkh suhvhqfh ri holwhv zklfk ydu| dw d pxfk qduurzhu jhrjudsklfdo
ohyho vxfk dv d uhjlrq ru d flw|1 Wkh hpslulfdo hylghqfh rq wkh uroh ri wkhvh plfur0ohyho idfwruv
lv vfdufh1
Lq wklv sdshu/ zh dlp wr dgguhvv wklv jds e| vwxg|lqj wkh sdwwhuq ri orfdo glxvlrq ri
rqh ri wkh pdlq hfrqrplf lqvwlwxwlrqv zklfk jryhuqphqwv xvh wr lqfuhdvh lqqrydwlrq lqfhqwlyhv
dqg vsxu hfrqrplf jurzwk= sdwhqw uljkwv1 Sdwhqwv surylgh whpsrudu| prqrsro| uljkwv rq dq
lqqrydwlrq zklfk suhyhqw h{sursuldwlrq dqg vxssruw sulydwh frqwudfwlqj ryhu wkh qhz whfkqro0
rj|1 Wkh lqqrydwlrq olwhudwxuh kdv grfxphqwhg d odujh yduldwlrq lq wkh udwh ri sdwhqwlqj dfurvv
lqgxvwulhv dqg lq wkh shufhlyhg hhfwlyhqhvv ri sdwhqwv dfurvv upv +Ohylq hw do1/ 4<;:> Frkhq/
Qhovrq/ dqg Zdovk/ 5333,1 Wkhvh qglqjv kdyh w|slfdoo| ehhq lqwhusuhwhg dv vxjjhvwlqj wkdw
wkh vrfldo dqg hfrqrplf ydoxh surylghg e| lqwhoohfwxdo surshuw| uljkwv lv kljko| khwhurjhqhrxv1
Wr xqghuvwdqg wkh urrwv ri wklv khwhurjhqhlw| 0 l1h1 zk| vrph lqyhqwruv fkrrvh wr khdylo| uho|
rq sdwhqwv dqg zk| rwkhuv gr qrw0 lv hvvhqwldo iru wkh ghvljq ri sdwhqw srolflhv1 Li/ iru h{dpsoh/
d vxevwdqwldo vkduh ri lqqrydwlrq rffxuv lq lqgxvwulhv lq zklfk sdwhqwv gr qrw sod| dq lpsruwdqw
uroh/ srolflhv wkdw vwuhqjwkhq lqwhoohfwxdo surshuw| uljkwv pd| gr olwwoh wr udlvh wkh ryhudoo ohyho
ri lqqrydwlrq +Pdfkoxs dqg Shqurvh/ 4<83> Prvhu/ 5345,1 Vlploduo|/ zkhq rqo| ihz lqgxvwulhv
uho| khdylo| rq sdwhqw uljkwv/ fkdqjhv lq sdwhqw srolflhv pd| gudpdwlfdoo| dhfw wkh gluhfwlrq ri
whfkqlfdo fkdqjh +Prvhu/ 5338,1 Ilqdoo|/ li wkh hhfwv ri sdwhqw uljkwv duh kljko| khwhurjhqhrxv
dfurvv upv dqg lqgxvwulhv/ lw lv olnho| wkdw d rqh0vl}h0wv0doo sdwhqw v|vwhp dv wkh rqh fxuuhqwo|
lq sodfh lv vhfrqg ehvw +Dfhprjox dqg Dnfljlw/ 5345,1
Wklv sdshu surylghv qhz lqvljkwv rq wkh ghwhuplqdqwv ri sdwhqwlqj dfwlylw|/ h{sorlwlqj
wkh lqwurgxfwlrq ri wkh uvw uhjxodul}hg sdwhqw v|vwhp zklfk dsshduhg gxulqj wkh Uhqdlvvdqfh
4
lq wkh Yhqhwldq Uhsxeolf1 Lq 47:7 wkh Yhqhwldq Vhqdwh sdvvhg d sdwhqw dfw zklfk uhjxodwhg
wkh judqwlqj ri sdwhqwv iru qryhow|/ lqjhqxlw|/ dqg xwlolw|1 Wkh suhgrplqdqw ylhz dprqj sdwhqw
odz klvwruldqv lv wkdw wklv dfw irupdol}hg wkh suh047:7 sudfwlfh ri dg krf jryhuqphqw judqwhg
sulylohjhv zlwk dq dgplqlvwudwlyh0fhqwhuhg v|vwhp/ vwulnlqjo| vlplodu wr wkh prghuq Dqjor0
Dphulfdq v|vwhp +Phujhv dqg Gx|/ 5346,1 Wkh sdwhqwv dzdughg lq wkh odwh iwhhqwk fhqwxu|
lq wkh Yhqhwldq Uhsxeolf surylgh d xqltxh rssruwxqlw| wr vwxg| wkh glxvlrq ri d qhz lqvwl0
wxwlrqdo irup ri surshuw| uljkwv1 Wkh glvwlqfwlyh qdwxuh ri wkh Yhqhwldq Sdwhqw Dfw +Pdqglfk/
4<69, doorzv xv wr h{dplqh wkh lqwurgxfwlrq ri d gudvwlfdoo| qhz lqqrydwlrq srolf|/ udwkhu
wkdq irfxvlqj rq pdujlqdo fkdqjhv ri prghuq srolflhv1 Pruhryhu/ wkh klvwrulfdo qdwxuh ri rxu
gdwd lv xvhixo wr xqghuvwdqg zkhwkhu khwhurjhqhlw| lq wkh xvh ri sdwhqw uljkwv lv d shuvlvwhqw
skhqrphqrq/ ru lv d pruh uhfhqw lvvxh olqnhg wr prghuq whfkqrorj| wuhqgv1
Zh ehjlq rxu dqdo|vlv zlwk d vlpsoh wkhruhwlfdo prgho zklfk ghvfulehv wkh sdwhqwlqj
ghflvlrq ri lqyhqwruv dw wkh wlph ri wkh Yhqhwldq Uhsxeolf1 Wkh wkhruhwlfdo iudphzrun kljkoljkwv
wzr nh| glhuhqfhv ehwzhhq wkh prghuq sdwhqw uhjlph dqg wkh Yhqhwldq v|vwhp1 Iluvw/ Yhqhwldq
sdwhqw uljkwv surylghg qrw rqo| wkh cqhjdwlyh* uljkwv wr h{foxgh wkurxjk prqrsro| srzhu/ exw
dovr wkh csrvlwlyh* uljkw wr hqwhu lqwr fudiw jxlogv iru lqqrydwruv zklfk zhuh qrw jxlog phpehuv
+Pdqglfk/ 4<7;> Vlfkhopdq dqg R*Frqqru/ 5345,1 Vhfrqg/ jxlogv kdg wkh srzhu wr rssrvh dqg
eorfn sdwhqw dssolfdwlrqv +Ehuyhjolhul/ 4<<8>4<<<> Wulyhoodwr/ 533;,1 Zh vkrz wkdw wkh lqwhusod|
ri wkhvh wzr ihdwxuhv lpsolhv wkdw wkh ohyho ri sdwhqwlqj fdq ydu| vxevwdqwldoo| dfurvv jxlogv/
dqg wkdw wklv lv wuxh erwk iru jxlog phpehuv dqg iru rxwvlgh lqyhqwruv1 Pruh vshflfdoo|/ wkh
prgho vkrzv wkdw wkh ohyho ri sdwhqwlqj lq d whfkqrorj| duhd lv vwurqjo| uhodwhg wr wkh delolw| ri
jxlog vwdwxwhv wr suhyhqw hqwu| ri rxwvlghuv dqg wr plwljdwh frpshwlwlrq dprqj jxlog phpehuv1
Juhdwhu vwdwxwru| uhvwulfwlrqv doorz jxlog phpehuv wr h{wudfw kljk uhqwv/ dqg wklv lqfuhdvhv
wkhlu lqfhqwlyhv wr suhyhqw sdwhqwlqj e| rwkhu phpehuv dqg h{whuqdo lqqrydwruv1
Rxu hpslulfdo dqdo|vlv h{sorlwv d qhz gdwdvhw zklfk frpelqhv ghwdlohg gljlwl}hg lqirupd0
wlrq rq fudiw jxlogv lq Lwdoldq flwlhv iru wkh shulrg 453304;33/ zlwk gdwd rq wkh sdwhqwv judqwhg
e| wkh Vhqdwh ri wkh Yhqhwldq Uhsxeolf diwhu wkh 47:7 sdwhqw dfw1 Wkh pdlq qglqjv duh dv
iroorzv1 Iluvw/ zh qg d vwurqj qhjdwlyh dvvrfldwlrq ehwzhhq wkh sdwhqwlqj lq wkh whfkqrorj|
vhfwru ri d jxlog dqg wkh suhvhqfh ri ghwdlohg lqwhuqdo uxohv olplwlqj hqwu| dqg frpshwlwlrq1
Uhvxowv duh urexvw wr lqfoxglqj d ydulhw| ri frqwurov iru flw| dqg jxlog fkdudfwhulvwlfv/ dqg wr
xvlqj dowhuqdwlyh phwkrgrorjlhv wr lpsxwh sdwhqwv wr jxlogv1
Vhfrqg/ zh vkrz wkdw sdwhqwlqj zdv pruh iuhtxhqw iru jxlogv orfdwhg lq flwlhv jhrjudskl0
5
fdoo| glvwdqw iurp Yhqlfh1 Pruhryhu/ zh frqvwuxfw d phdvxuh ri srolwlfdo frqqhfwlrq dw wkh flw|
ohyho h{sorlwlqj d xqltxh gdwdedvh rq Yhqhwldq qrelolw| dqg pduuldjhv ehwzhhq qreoh idplolhv
dqg phpehuv ri wkh Juhdw Frxqflo1 Zh grfxphqw d qhjdwlyh dvvrfldwlrq ehwzhhq srolwlfdo
frqqhfwlrqv dqg sdwhqwlqj1 Zh lqwhusuhw wkhvh qglqjv dv vxjjhvwlqj wkdw lqwhoohfwxdo surshuw|
uljkwv zhuh d vxevwlwxwh wr rwkhu irupv ri irupdo dqg lqirupdo surwhfwlrq1
Ilqdoo|/ zh surylgh hylghqfh ri wkh fdxvdo qdwxuh ri wkh qhjdwlyh hhfw ri jxlogv* lqwhuqdo
vwdwxwh rq sdwhqwlqj e| h{sorlwlqj dq lqvwuxphqwdo yduldeoh zklfk uholhv rq wkh uholjlrxv ruljlq
ri vrph ri wkh jxlogv lq rxu vdpsoh1 Lq idfw/ d qxpehu ri wkh jxlogv lq Qruwkhuq Lwdo| ruljlqdwhg
iurp phglhydo uholjlrxv frqiudwhuqlwlhv d frxsoh ri fhqwxulhv ehiruh wkh sdwhqw dfw1 Zh vkrz wkdw
wkh uholjlrxv ruljlq ri wkh jxlog lv d vwurqj suhglfwru ri vwdwxwru| surylvlrqv uhvwulfwlqj hqwu|
dqg frpshwlwlrq1 Dw wkh vdph wlph/ zh glvfxvv krz wkh uholjlrxv ruljlq ri wkh jxlog lv olnho| wr
eh gulyhq e| lglrv|qfudwlf uhdvrqv dqg lv xqfruuhodwhg wr rwkhu revhuydeoh jxlog fkdudfwhulvwlfv1
Wkh lqvwuxphqwdo yduldeoh dqdo|vlv frqupv wkh qhjdwlyh uhodwlrq ehwzhhq sdwhqwlqj dqg wkh
vwuhqjwk ri jxlogv* vwdwxwhv1
Wkhvh qglqjv duh frqqhfwhg wr wkh hfrqrplf klvwru| olwhudwxuh rq wkh uroh ri fudiw jxlogv1
D frpprq ylhz lv wkdw phglhydo fudiw jxlogv zhuh whfkqrskrelf +Qruwk/ 4<;4,1 Pruh uhfhqw
vwxglhv surylgh d pruh qxdqfhg ylhz/ uhfrjql}lqj wkdw wkhuh zhuh vxevwdqwldo glhuhqfhv dfurvv
jxlogv/ dqg vrph ri wkhp zhuh pxfk pruh uhfhswlyh wkdq rwkhuv wr qryhowlhv dqg whfkqrorjlfdo
dgydqfhv +Hsvwhlq/ 5337,1 Lq khu dqdo|vlv ri Yhqhwldq vlon dqg jodvv surgxfwlrq/ Wulyhoodwr
+533;, hpskdvl}hv wkh fuxfldo uroh ri lqwud0jxlog lqwhudfwlrqv zklfk zdv riwhq vkdshg e| jxlog
vwdwxwhv/ zlwk h{shulphqwdwlrq wdnlqj sodfh rqo| zkhq vwdwxwru| qrupv zhuh qrw wrr uhvwulfwlyh1
Rxu hpslulfdo dqdo|vlv frqupv Wulyhoodwr*v wkhvlv/ dqg kljkoljkwv wkh ixqgdphqwdo uroh ri lqwud0
jxlog lqwhudfwlrqv1
Rxu sdshu lv dovr uhodwhg wr vwxglhv wkdw lqyhvwljdwh wkh hhfwv ri rffxsdwlrqdo olfhqvlqj1
Nohlqhu +5333, surylghv d vxuyh| ri wkh olwhudwxuh1 Shuvlfr +5348, ghyhorsv d wkhru| vkrzlqj krz
lqwhuqdo srolwlfv ri d olfhqvlqj dvvrfldwlrq fdq ohdg wr h{sdqvlrq ri wkh olfhqvxuh1 Rxu dqdo|vlv
looxvwudwhv krz rffxsdwlrqdo olfhqvlqj dqg vhoi0uhjxodwlrq pd| lqwhudfw zlwk wkh glxvlrq ri qhz
hfrqrplf lqvwlwxwlrqv1 Wkh uroh ri lqwhuqdo uxohv dqg krz wkh| lq xhqfh whfkqrorj| dgrswlrq lv
dovr wkh irfxv ri Eulgjpdq +5348, zkr vwxglhv zk| xqlrqv pd| idyru uhvwulfwlyh zrun uhjxodwlrqv
dqg krz wkhvh uhjxodwlrqv pd| lqgxfh uhvlvwdqfh wr whfkqrorj| dgrswlrq1 Ilqdoo|/ rxu sdshu
dggv wr wkh olwhudwxuh rq wkh uhodwlrqvkls ehwzhhq frpshwlwlrq dqg lqqrydwlrq +Eorrp hw do/
5338> Frkhq/ 5343,1 Rxu qglqjv vxjjhvw wkdw wkh frpshwlwlyh vwuxfwxuh pd| qrw rqo| dhfw
6
wkh ohyho ri lqqrydwlrq exw dovr wkh surshqvlw| wr uho| rq sdwhqw surwhfwlrq1
Wkh sdshu lv rujdql}hg dv iroorzv1 Vhfwlrq 5 surylghv d eulhi ghvfulswlrq ri wkh ruljlq
dqg ixqfwlrqlqj ri wkh Yhqhwldq sdwhqw v|vwhp1 Vhfwlrq 6 ghyhorsv d prgho vkrzlqj wkh olqn
ehwzhhq jxlog vwdwxwru| qrupv dqg sdwhqwlqj1 Vhfwlrq 7 ghvfulehv wkh gdwd dqg glvfxvvhv wkh
hfrqrphwulf vshflfdwlrq1 Vhfwlrq 8 suhvhqwv wkh hpslulfdo uhvxowv1 Frqfoxglqj uhpdunv eulh |
vxppdul}h wkh qglqjv dqg wkhlu lpsolfdwlrqv1
5
Uhqdlvvdqfh Yhqlfh dqg lwv sdwhqw v|vwhp
Wklv vhfwlrq surylghv d eulhi klvwrulfdo ryhuylhz ri wkh Yhqhwldq Uhsxeolf ehwzhhq wkh iwhhqwk
dqg vl{whhqwk fhqwxu|/ dqg looxvwudwhv wkh pdlq ihdwxuhv ri wkh 47:7 sdwhqw dfw1
514
Wkh Yhqhwldq uhsxeolf lq wkh [Y dqg [YL fhqwxu|
Gxulqj wkh shulrg ri rxu vwxg|/ wkh Vhuhqlvvlpd Uhsxeolf ri Yhqlfh zdv rqh ri wkh odujhvw
uhjlrqdo hfrqrp| ri Uhqdlvvdqfh Hxursh1 Lwv fhqwhu zdv wkh pdulwlph flw| ri Yhqlfh zlwk
urxjko| 433/333 lqkdelwdqwv lq 4833/ derxw kdoi ri wkh srsxodwlrq ri qruwk0hdvw Lwdo| dw wkdw
wlph +Pdodqlpd/ 4<<;,1 Wkh Yhqhwldq vwdwh h{whqghg rq wkh Whuudihupd grplqlrq/ d frpsdfw
dqg ghqvho| srsxodwhg duhd zklfk lqfoxghg odujh flwlhv vxfk dv Yhurqd dqg Ylfhq}d1 Iljxuh
4 +iurp Nqdswrq/ 5346, looxvwudwhv wkh Vwdwh erxqgdulhv durxqg wkh shulrg ri rxu vwxg|1 D
qxpehu ri dgglwlrqdo flwlhv lq wkh Juhhn shqlqvxod dqg lq Vrxwk0Hdvw Hxursh/ vxfk dv Fruix/
Dqgurv dqg F|suxv zhuh dovr xqghu wkh frqwuro ri wkh Yhqhwldq Uhsxeolf dqg zhuh lqvwuxphqwdo
sruwv iru orqj0glvwdqfh wudgh ehwzhhq Zhvwhuq Hxursh dqg wkh Ohydqw +Eruhool/ 4<;3,1
Wkh Yhqhwldq Uhsxeolf zdv edvhg rq d fduhixo edodqfh ri srzhu wkdw ruljlqdwhg e| dq
dwwhpsw wr uhvwudlq wkh srzhu ri d vlqjoh shuvrq ru jryhuqlqj erg| dqg ohg wr uhpdundeoh
srolwlfdo vwdelolw| +Odqh 4<:6,1 Phpehuvkls wr wkh pdlq jryhuqlqj lqvwlwxwlrqv zdv suhfoxghg
wr orzhu fodvvhv vxfk dv duwlvdqv dqg vkrsnhhshuv1 Pruhryhu/ iroorzlqj wkh Vhuudwd ru %forvxuh%
lq 45<:/ srolwlfdo ixqfwlrqv zhuh uhvwulfwhg wr d khuhglwdu| qrelolw| wkdw kdg wkh h{foxvlyh uljkw
wr vlw lq wkh Juhdw Frxqflo/ wkh ohjlvodwlyh dvvhpeo| ri wkh Uhsxeolf1 Ehfdxvh ri wkh odujh
vl}h ri wkh Juhdw Frxqflo/ prvw ri ohjlvodwlyh ixqfwlrqv zhuh ghohjdwhg wr wkh Vhqdwh/ d vpdoohu
dvvhpeo| +derxw 633 vhqdwruv, hohfwhg e| wkh Juhdw Frxqflo +Eruhool/ 4<;3,1 Vrph phpehuv
ri wkh Vhqdwh kdg wkh uljkw ri ohjlvodwlyh lqlwldwlyh +cphwwhu sduwh*, rwkhuv zhuh rqo| hqwlwohg
wr yrwh +cphwwhu edoorwwd*,1 Dprqj wkh vhqdwruv hqwlwohg erwk wr yrwh dqg wr sursrvh qhz
odzv wkhuh zhuh wkuhh %Suryyhglwrul gl Frpxq% zkr dovr ryhuvdz wudqvsruw lqiudvwuxfwxuhv dqg
7
phufdqwloh wudgh +Eruhool/ 4<;3> ]djjld/ 5337> Gl Vwhidqr/ 5344,1 Wkh Grjh zdv wkh shuvrqdo
hperglphqw ri wkh Uhsxeolf/ lw zdv hohfwhg e| d frpplwwhh ri 74 qreohv fkrvhq e| wkh Juhdw
Frxqflo1 Lq 47:7 wkh Grjh zdv Qlfror* Pdufhoor dqg hohyhq Grjhv wrrn r!fh ehwzhhq 47:7 dqg
4883 +Uhqglqd/ 4<;7,1
Dw wkh wlph ri rxu vwxg|/ wkh pdlq wkuhdw wr Yhqlfh*v wudgh vxsuhpdf| dqg wkh suhvhuyd0
wlrq ri lwv hfrqrplf srzhu zdv wkh Rwwrpdq Hpsluh zklfk zdv h{sdqglqj gudpdwlfdoo| xqghu
wkh ohdghuvkls ri vxowdq Vholp L +Eruhoool/ 4<;3,1 Pruhryhu/ wkh 47<5 glvfryhu| ri Dphulfd
vwduwhg vkliwlqj wkh fhqwhu ri orqj0glvwdqfh wudgh dzd| iurp wkh Phglwhuudqhdq wrzdug wkh
Dwodqwlf1
Wkh hfrqrp| ri wkh fdslwdo zdv gulyhq e| wkh ydvw wudglqj dfwlylw| lq vslfhv/ g|lqj
pdwhuldov/ vlon/ frwwrq/ vodyhv/ dqg suhflrxv phwdov +Sh}}ror/ 5346,1 Rq wrs ri wklv yleudqw
wudgh/ duwlvdq surgxfwlrq dovr rxulvkhg erwk lq Yhqlfh dqg lq Whuudihupd1 Wkh Duvhqdo zdv
rqh ri wkh odujhvw lqgxvwuldo vlwhv lq Hxursh/ dqg jodvvpdnlqj zdv dprqj wkh prvw suhvwljlrxv
xuedq rffxsdwlrqv dw wkh wlph +Wulyhoodwr/ 533;,1 Wkh pdlqodqg zdv pdunhg e| d olyho| zrro
dqg vlon surgxfwlrq +Ghpr/ 5346,1
Phufkdqwv dqg fudiwvphq zhuh rujdql}hg lq jxlogv/ vhoi0jryhuqhg rujdql}dwlrqv zklfk
frqwuroohg ydulrxv dvshfwv ri wkh hfrqrplf dfwlylw|1 Jxlog vwdwxwhv suhvfulehg whfkqlfdo fkdu0
dfwhulvwlfv ri surgxfwv/ dqg uhjxodwhg hqwu|/ dssuhqwlfhvkls dqg frpshwlwlrq1 Riwhq wkh| suh0
foxghg jxlogv phpehuv iurp prylqj wr dqrwkhu flw| +Ehoidqwl/ 5337,1 Wkh Yhqhwldq jryhuqphqw
irvwhuhg jxlog phpehuvkls iru vfdo uhdvrq/ dqg derxw 53 shufhqw ri wkh srsxodwlrq ri wkh flw| ri
Yhqlfh ehorqj wr d jxlog14 Jxlog phpehuv zhuh h{foxghg iurp jryhuqphqw/ exw wkh Yhqhwldq
frqvwlwxwlrq jxdudqwhhg wkhp wkh uljkw ri mxglfldo dsshdo djdlqvw wkh jryhuqphqw dqg jxlog
r!fhuv +Odqh/ 4<:6,1
515
Wkh 47:7 sdwhqw dfw
Rq Pdufk 4< 47:7 wkh Yhqhwldq Vhqdwh sdvvhg dq dfw ru sduwh uhjxodwlqj wkh judqwlqj ri
sdwhqwv1 Zkloh wkhuh lv hylghqfh wkdw d vpdoo qxpehu ri cdg krf* sulylohjhv iru qhz lqyhqwlrqv
dqg plqhudo h{wudfwlrq zhuh judqwhg e| wkh Yhqhwldq jryhuqphqw ehiruh wklv dfw +rqo| yh
sdwhqwv dffruglqj wr Pdqglfk/ 4<69,/ wkh csduwh* ri 47:7 lv wkh yhu| uvw odz uhjxodwlqj wkh
sdwhqw dssolfdwlrq dqg judqwlqj surfhvv/ dqg kdv ehhq uhfrjql}hg e| qxphurxv klvwruldqv dqg
odz vfkroduv dv wkh ohjdo irxqgdwlrq ri wkh prghuq sdwhqw v|vwhp +lqwhu dold vhh Pdqglfk 4<7;>
4
Wklv vkduh uhpdlqhg vwdeoh/ zlwk plqru xfwxdwlrqv/ iurp wkh [YL Fhqwxu| wloo 4:<:/ wkh hqg ri wkh Yhqhwldq
vwdwh +Frvwdqwlql/ 4<;:,1
8
Gx|/ 533:> Jroghq/ 5346,1
Wkh dfw lqglfdwhv wkdw sdwhqw dssolfdwlrqv ru cvxssolfkh* zhuh wr eh qrwlhg wr wkh
cSuryyhglwrul gl Frpxq* dqg wkh sdwhqwv +ru csulydwlyh*, zhuh w|slfdoo| judqwhg diwhu Vhqd0
wruldo dssurydo +Ehuyhjolhul/ 4<<8,1 Wkh vxemhfw pdwwhu wr eh sdwhqwhg zdv uhtxluhg wr eh d
qhz dqg lqjhqlrxv ghylfh dqg wkh hhfw ri d sdwhqw zdv wr vwrs hyhu| rwkhu shuvrq lq dq|
ri rxu whuulwrulhv dqg wrzqv wr pdnh dq| ixuwkhu ghylfh frqiruplqj zlwk dqg vlplodu wr vdlg
rqh zlwkrxw wkh frqvhqw dqg olfhqvh ri wkh dxwkru +Pdqglfk/ 4<7;,1 Wkh qryhow| frqwhqw zdv
hydoxdwhg rq wkh edvlv ri wkh whfkqlfdo nqrzohgjh dydlodeoh lq wkh Yhqhwldq grplqlxp/ lpso|lqj
wkdw d sdwhqw frxog eh judqwhg wr surgxfwv ru surfhvvhv douhdg| lq xvh hovhzkhuh +Proã/ 5347,1
Wkh sdwhqwhh zdv uhtxluhg wr lpsohphqw wkh lqyhqwlrq +cphvvd lq rshud*, zlwklq d vshflhg sh0
ulrg ri wlph1 Lq fdvh wkh sdwhqwhh idlohg wr xvh wkh ghylfh/ wkh sdwhqw zdv uhyrnhg +Ehuyhjolhul/
4<<8,15
Wkhuh duh wkuhh pdlq ihdwxuhv ri wkh Yhqhwldq sdwhqw v|vwhp zklfk duh nh| wr rxu dqdo|vlv1
Iluvw/ sdwhqwv frxog eh judqwhg wr doo lqyhqwruv uhjdugohvv ri wkhlu flwl}hqvkls vwdwxv ru jxlog
phpehuvkls1 Wkxv/ sdwhqwv zhuh erwk cqhjdwlyh* uljkwv wr h{foxgh exw dovr csrvlwlyh* uljkwv
wr sudfwlfh wkh lqyhqwlrq dqg rshudwh lq lqgxvwulhv frqwuroohg e| jxlogv +Pdqglfk/ 4<7;> dqg
Vlfkhopdq dqg R* Frqqru/ 5345,1 Iru h{dpsoh/ Ioruhqwlqh lqyhqwru Frvpr Vfdwlql zdv judqwhg
d sdwhqw iru kljk txdolw| eodfn vlon g|lqj zklfk shuplwwhg klp wr hquroo lq wkh g|hu*v jxlog
+Ehoidqwl/ 5337,1
Vhfrqg/ jxlogv zhuh riwhq lqyroyhg lq wkh sdwhqw judqwlqj ghflvlrq surfhvv/ wkurxjk wkh
hydoxdwlrq ri wkh qryhow| frqwhqw1 Wklv h{dplqdwlrq lqyroyhg/ prvw ri wkh wlph/ d whvw ri wkh
qhz surgxfw ru surfhvv +wkh h{shulhq}d, wr yhuli|/ ehiruh judqwlqj wkh sdwhqw/ zkhwkhu wkh
lqyhqwlrq zdv dfwxdoo| zrunlqj1 Wulyhoodwr +533;, ghvfulehv wkh rssrvlwlrq ri wkh Yhqhwldq vlon
vslqqhuv* jxlog wr wkh sdwhqw dssolfdwlrq ri Lvhssr Jlrydq Shulq Pdwwld}}r iru d qhz k|gudxolf
ploo iru vslqqlqj dqg wkurzlqj vlon16
Wklug/ sdwhqw kroghuv zhuh h{shfwhg wr vkduh wkh whfkqrorj| zlwk jxlog phpehuv zlwk
wkh sd|phqw ri dq dssursuldwh olfhqvlqj ihh1 Vxfk olfhqvlqj uhtxluhphqw lv riwhq phqwlrqhg lq
wkh sdwhqw uhfrugv/ zlwkrxw vshfli|lqj wkh suhflvh dprxqw exw uhtxhvwlqj d glvfuhwh vxp ri
prqh| iru wkh wudqvihu ru sd|phqw ri dghtxdwh uhzdug +Ehoyhjolhul/ 4<<8,1
5
Wkh dfw hvwdeolvkhg d sdwhqw ohqjwk ri 43 |hduv/ exw zdv frpprq iru dssolfdqwv wr uhtxhvw orqjhu surwhfwlrq1
Pdqglfk +4<69, ghvfulehv fdvhv lq zklfk sdwhqw uljkwv odvwhg 58 dqg hyhq :3 |hduv1
6
Prod* +5333, uhsruwv d qxpehu ri rwkhu rssrvlwlrq fdvhv/ vxfk dv wkh 48;6 vslqqlqj pdfklqh sdwhqw ri Xuedqr
Erqwxuhool dqg wkh 48<: vlon eohdfklqj sdwhqw ri Jldfrpr gl Eldqfkl dqg Lqqrfhqwh Vrdugr1
9
Zkloh d qxpehu ri klvwruldqv kdyh h{dplqhg wkh dgplqlvwudwlyh ghwdlov ri wkh Yhqhwldq
sdwhqw v|vwhp dqg froohfwhg ghwdlohg lqirupdwlrq rq sdwhqw uhfrugv/ yhu| ihz vwxglhv kdyh
dgguhvvhg wkh txhvwlrq ri zk| wkh Vhqdwh sdvvhg wkh sdwhqw dfw lq 47:71 Odqh +4<:6, dqg
Pd| +5335, vxjjhvw wkdw wkh jurzlqj hfrqrplf dqg wudglqj srzhu ri wkh Rwwrpdq hpsluh dqg
Dqwzhus ohg Yhqhwldq srolf| pdnhuv wr irfxv rq lqgxvwuldo dfwlylwlhv1 Ehuyhjolhul +4<<8/ 4<<<,
dqg Ehoidqwl +4<<8, hpskdvl}h wkh jrdo ri dwwudfwlqj iruhljq lqyhqwruv wr wkh Yhqhwldq Uhsxeolf
wr frpshqvdwh iru wkh orvw vxsuhpdf| ri Yhqhwldq jxlogv lq ydulrxv lqgxvwuldo vhfwruv17 Pdqglfk
+4<69, vxjjhvwv wkdw vxffhvvixo h{shulphqwdwlrq zlwk prqrsrolhv lq plqhudo uljkwv pd| kdyh
ohg Yhqhwldq dxwkrulwlhv wr ohjlvodwh rq sdwhqw uljkwv1
6
Wkhruhwlfdo prgho
Lq wklv vhfwlrq/ zh ghyhors d vlpsoh wkhruhwlfdo prgho wr vwxg| sdwhqwlqj lqfhqwlyhv lq wkh
Yhqhwldq Uhsxeolf dqg h{dplqh wkh hhfwv ri jxlog vwdwxwhv rq upv* sdwhqwlqj vwudwhjlhv1
614
Vhw0xs
Frqvlghu dq lqgxvwu| zlwk wkuhh upv dqg wzr shulrgv w @ 4> 5= Wzr upv ehorqj wr d jxlog/
dqg wkh wklug up lv dq rxwvlghu1 Lq wkh devhqfh ri lqqrydwlrq/ jxlog phpehuv vhoo d vwdqgdug
surgxfw wr frqvxphuv1 Wkh vxusoxv fuhdwhg e| wkh vwdqgdug surgxfw lv shu shulrg1 Zh dvvxph
wkdw wkh jxlog fdq dssursuldwh d iudfwlrq +, ri wklv vxusoxv/ zlwk +, A 3= Wkh dssursuldwhg
vxusoxv lv vkduhg htxdoo| dprqj jxlog phpehuv1 Wkh sdudphwhu fdswxuhv wkh vwuhqjwk ri wkh
jxlog*v lqwhuqdo vwdwxwh/ zlwk d odujhu ydoxh ri lqglfdwlqj odujhu frooxvlyh srzhu dprqj wkh
phpehuv zklfk doorzv juhdwhu surw h{wudfwlrq1
Dw w @ 4 rqh ri wkh upv ghyhorsv dq lqqrydwlrq zklfk fdq lqfuhdvh wkh vxusoxv wr . shu shulrg1 Lqqrydwlrqv duh glvwulexwhg zlwk fxpxodwlyh glvwulexwlrq I +, zlwk vxssruw ^3> 4`1
Wr sdwhqw wkh lqqrydwlrq frvwv f dqg sdwhqw surwhfwlrq odvwv iru rqh shulrg1 Wkh sdwhqw judqwv
wkh lqqrydwru wkh uljkw wr h{wudfw wkh ixoo vxusoxv iru wkh shulrg1 Wkh sdwhqw kroghu qhjrwldwhv
olfhqvlqj ghdov zlwk wkh rwkhu jxlog phpehuv e| pdnlqj wdnh0lw0ru0ohdyh0lw rhuv wr wkhp1 Rqfh
wkh sdwhqw kdv h{sluhg/ wkh whfkqrorj| ehfrphv iuhho| dydlodeoh wr doo jxlog phpehuv1
Wkh rxwvlghu up fdqqrw hqwhu wkh jxlog zlwkrxw dq lqqrydwlrq1 Hqwu| lv jxdudqwhhg li
wkh rxwvlghu up rewdlqv d sdwhqw1 Li lw lqqrydwhv exw grhv qrw rewdlq d sdwhqw/ hqwu| rffxuv
7
Ehoidqwl +5337, grfxphqwv krz wkh ylhz wkdw dwwudfwlqj wdohqwhg shrsoh wr d flw| zdv fuxfldo iru hfrqrplf
jurzwk zdv zhu| srsxodu dprqj lqwhoohfwxdov ri wkh wlph1
:
zlwk suredelolw| +, zlwk +, ? 3/ zklfk fdswxuhv wkh lghd wkdw wkh vwurqjhu jxlog vwdwxwhv
duh/ wkh pruh gl!fxow lw lv iru dq rxwvlghu wr hqwhu1
Hdfk jxlog phpehu fdq rssrvh d sdwhqw dssolfdwlrq e| sd|lqj dq rssrvlwlrq frvw> 1 Li
wkh sdwhqw lv rssrvhg/ wkh whfkqrorj| lv dssursuldwhg dqg vkduhg dprqj doo wkh jxlog phpehuv1
Li wkh sdwhqw ri wkh rxwvlghu lv rssrvhg/ lwv hqwu| lv eorfnhg dv zhoo1
Iru vlpsolflw| zh vhw +, @ dqg +, @ 4 +iru urexvwqhvv vhh vhfwlrq 617,1 Zh dovr
dvvxph wkdw A 6f wr irfxv rq wkh fdvhv lq zklfk wkh frvw ri rewdlqlqj d sdwhqw lv qrw wrr
odujh uhodwlyh wr wrwdo vxusoxv1
615
Lqqrydwlrq e| d jxlog phpehu
Zh vwduw zlwk wkh fdvh lq zklfk d jxlog phpehu lv wkh lqqrydwru1 Zlwk d sdwhqw rq wkh
lqqrydwlrq/ wkh jxlog phpehu surwv duh htxdo wr
.
+ . ,
.
f=
5
5
Vshflfdoo|/ lq wkh uvw shulrg sdwhqw surwhfwlrq doorzv wkh up wr h{wudfw wkh ixoo vxusoxv
. = Dw wkh vdph wlph wkh olfhqvlqj qhjrwldwlrq zlwk wkh rwkhu phpehu lpsolhv wkdw
lv
5
wudqvihuuhg wkurxjk olfhqvlqj18 Lq wkh vhfrqg shulrg/ wkh lqqrydwlrq lv vkduhg e| wkh wzr
+ . ,
phpehuv/ hdfk rewdlqlqj
= Li wkh lqqrydwru fkrrvhv qrw wr sdwhqw/ lwv surwv duh
5
+ . , ehfdxvh wkh whfkqrorj| lv vkduhg iru wzr shulrgv1 Sdwhqwlqj lv pruh surwdeoh wkdq
qrw sdwhqwlqj rqo| li
.
+ . ,
.
f A + . ,
5
5
ru
h
A +,
@
5
+f +4 ,,=
5
h
Qrwlfh wkdw +,
A 3 rqo| li lv odujh hqrxjk1 Pruhryhu
h
g{E
g
A 3= Wklv lpsolhv wkdw dv
wkh vwuhqjwk ri wkh lqwhuqdo vwdwxwh lqfuhdvhv/ jxlog phpehuv sdwhqw rqo| wkhlu pruh ydoxdeoh
lqqrydwlrqv dqg wkh surshqvlw| wr sdwhqw ghfuhdvhv lq =
Frqvlghu qrz wkh lqfhqwlyhv ri rqh jxlog phpehu wr rssrvh wkh sdwhqw e| wkh rwkhu jxlog
phpehu1 Rssrvlwlrq lv surwdeoh li
+ . , A
+ . ,
.
5
5
8
Wkh lpsolflw dvvxpswlrq khuh lv wkdw lq fdvh ri glvdjuhhphqw wkh lqqrydwlrq lv qrw lpsohphqwhg iru rqh
shulrg xqwlo wkh sdwhqw lv h{sluhg/ vr wkdw hdfk up jhwv @21 Uhvxowv duh urexvw wr frqvlghulqj dowhuqdwlyh
rxwvlgh rswlrqv1
;
zklfk lv vdwlvhg li
Qrwlfh wkdw
e
g{E
g
5
e
A +,
@ =
? 3 zklfk lpsolhv wkdw jxlog phpehuv eorfn sdwhqwv ri rwkhu jxlog phpehuv
pruh riwhq dv wkh vwuhqjwk ri wkh lqwhuqdo vwdwxwh lqfuhdvhv1
Wkh deryh glvfxvvlrq lpsolhv wkdw wkh olnholkrrg ri sdwhqwlqj jrhv grzq dv zh lqfuhdvh
wkh lqwhuqdo vwuhqjwk ri wkh jxlog vwdwxwh/ ehfdxvh jxlog phpehuv duh ohvv olnho| wr dsso| iru d
sdwhqw dqg wkh| duh dovr pruh olnho| wr eorfn d sdwhqw ri rwkhu phpehuv1 Frqglwlrqdo rq dq
lqqrydwlrq ri d jxlog phpehu/ wkh olnholkrrg ri sdwhqwlqj lv
e
h
S +, @ I ++,,
I ++,,
zklfk ghfuhdvhv lq =
616
Lqqrydwlrq e| dq h{whuqdo lqqrydwru
Wkh surwv ri dq h{whuqdo lqqrydwru zlwk d sdwhqw duh
. .
+ . ,
f=
6
Lq wkh uvw shulrg wkh lqqrydwru h{wudfwv ixoo vxusoxv dqg vwulnhv olfhqvlqj ghdov zlwk wkh jxlog
phpehuv rhulqj @5 wr hdfk ri wkhp1 Lq wkh vhfrqg shulrg wkh lqqrydwlrq lv vkduhg dprqj
wkh wkuhh upv1 Zlwkrxw d sdwhqw/ wkh h{whuqdo lqqrydwru hqwhuv wkh jxlog zlwk suredelolw| 40
dqg wkh whfkqrorj| lv lpphgldwho| vkduhg zlwk wkh jxlog phpehuv1 Sdwhqwlqj lv pruh surwdeoh
wkdq hqwhulqj zlwkrxw sdwhqw li
. .
+ . ,
5+ . ,
f A +4 ,
6
6
wkdw rffxuv li
2
h H +, @ 6f 6 . 7 5 =
A
6 . 52
h H +3, @ +6f 6, @6 dqg h H +4, @ +6f , @7= Pruhryhu/ ehfdxvh A 6f zh kdyh
Qrwlfh wkdw wkdw
j
g{
H E
g
h H +, ? 3 iru hdfk / zklfk lpsolhv wkdw wkh h{whuqdo lqqrydwru dozd|v
A 3 dqg sdwhqwv/ qr pdwwhu wkh vwuhqjwk ri wkh jxlog vwdwxwhv1 Iru orz ydoxhv ri sdwhqwlqj lv rswlpdo
vlqfh wkh lqqrydwru dssursuldwhv d odujh vkduh ri wkh surwv jhqhudwhg e| wkh lqqrydwlrq gxulqj
wkh uvw shulrg1 Zkhq lv odujh/ sdwhqwlqj lv rswlpdo wr ryhufrph wkh gl!fxowlhv ri ehlqj
dgplwwhg lq wkh jxlog1
<
E| rssrvlqj wkh sdwhqw/ jxlog phpehuv suhyhqw hqwu| dqg dssursuldwh wkh uhqw iurp wkh
qhz whfkqrorj| iurp shulrg rqh1 Zlwkrxw rssrvlwlrq/ hdfk jxlog phpehu uhfhlyhv olfhqvlqj
uhqw +@5, iru rqh shulrg dqg vkduhv wkh whfkqrorj| zlwk wkh rwkhu wzr upv lq wkh vhfrqg
shulrg1 Rssrvlqj wkh sdwhqw lv pruh surwdeoh wkdq dffrpprgdwlqj hqwu| li
5
+ . ,
+ . ,
A .
5
5
6
ru
6 g
A
H +, @
5
9
zklfk lv ghfuhdvlqj lq > l1h1 rssrvlwlrq lv pruh olnho| zlwk kljk = Frqglwlrqdo rq wkh rxwvlghu
lqqrydwlqj/ wkh olnholkrrg ri sdwhqwlqj lv
zklfk lv dovr ghfuhdvlqj lq =
617
e H +,,
S +, @ I +
Glvfxvvlrq
Rxu vlpsoh prgho looxvwudwhv krz wkh surshqvlw| wr sdwhqw lq d whfkqrorj| duhd lv dhfwhg e|
wkh vwuhqjwk ri wkh vwdwxwhv ri wkh jxlogv rshudwlqj lq wkh hog1 Dv wkh vwuhqjwk ri wkh vwdwxwh
lqfuhdvhv/ wkh frooxvlyh srzhu ri d jxlog jrhv xs/ dqg wkh ydoxh ri wkh prqrsro| uhqw jhqhudwhg
e| wkh sdwhqw ghfuhdvhv1 Wkxv/ vwurqj vwdwxwhv uhgxfh sdwhqwlqj lqfhqwlyhv ri jxlog phpehuv1
Pruhryhu/ vwdwxwh vwuhqjwk doorzv jxlog phpehuv wr h{wudfw kljk uhqwv iurp wkh whfkqrorjlhv
wkdw wkh| dssursuldwh wkurxjk sdwhqw rssrvlwlrq1 Wklv lpsolhv wkdw lq wkh suhvhqfh ri vwurqj
vwdwxwhv sdwhqwv e| jxlog dqg qrq0jxlog phpehuv duh pruh olnho| wr eh rssrvhg1 Wrjhwkhu/
wkhvh wzr hhfwv jhqhudwh wkh whvwdeoh suhglfwlrq wkdw sdwhqwlqj dfwlylw| lv olnho| wr eh ohvv
surplqhqw lq whfkqrorj| hogv lq zklfk jxlogv kdyh vwurqj vwdwxwhv1
Wkhuh duh wzr dvvxpswlrqv lq wkh prgho wkdw zduudqw dgglwlrqdo glvfxvvlrq1 Iluvw/ wr
rewdlq d forvhg irup wkuhvkrog iru wkh sdwhqwlqj dqg rssrvlwlrq vwudwhjlhv zh vhw wkh lpsdfw
wkdw jxlog vwdwxwhv kdyh rq uhqw vkdulqj dqg hqwu| htxdo wr +, @ dqg +, @ 4 1 Lq wkh
dsshqgl{/ zh vkrz wkdw rxu frpsdudwlyh vwdwlfv duh urexvw wr frqvlghulqj pruh jhqhudo ixqfwlrqv
+, dqg +,1 Vshflfdoo|/ zh vkrz wkdw rxu frpsdudwlyh vwdwlfv krog xqghu plog dvvxpswlrqv
rq wkhvh ixqfwlrqv dqg ghulyh d vx!flhqw frqglwlrq wkdw jhqhudol}hv rxu pdlq uhvxowv1 Vhfrqg/
rxu edvholqh vhwwlqj dvvxphg wkdw wkh sdwhqwhh kdv ixoo edujdlqlqj srzhu gxulqj wkh olfhqvlqj
qhjrwldwlrqv dqg wkdw lw fdq dssursuldwh wkh zkroh vxusoxv ri wkh lqqrydwlrq +zkloh wkh rwkhu
43
jxlog phpehuv rewdlq wkh vwdwxv0txr surwv @5,= Lq wkh dsshqgl{/ zh uhod{ wklv dvvxpswlrq
dqg vwxg| d pruh jhqhudo vhw0xs lq zklfk wkh vxusoxv lv vkduhg wkurxjk Qdvk edujdlqlqj1 Zh
vkrz wkdw rxu pdlq uhvxowv duh urexvw/ dv orqj dv wkh edujdlqlqj srzhu ri wkh sdwhqwhh lv qrw
wrr vpdoo1
Ilqdoo|/ d qrwdeoh ihdwxuh ri wkh Yhqhwldq sdwhqw v|vwhp lv wkh rssruwxqlw| iru jxlog
phpehuv wr rssrvh sdwhqw dssolfdwlrqv1 Wklv uhvhpeohv prghuq dgplqlvwudwlyh surfhvvhv dw
wkh Hxurshdq dqg Xqlwhg Vwdwhv Sdwhqw R!fhv +Kdukr dqg Uhlw}lj/ 5337> Kdoo dqg Kdur/
5337,1 Rxu vlpsoh prgho vxjjhvwv wkdw wkhvh rssrvlwlrq v|vwhpv pd| kdyh d ydulhw| ri hhfwv
rq hqwu| dqg sdwhqwlqj ehkdylru1 Yhqhwldq sdwhqwv judqwhg h{whuqdo lqqrydwruv qrw rqo| vkruw0
whup prqrsro| uljkwv exw dovr wkh uljkw wr hqwhu lq d jxlog dqg h{wudfw orqj whup uhqw1 Wklv
lqgxfhv h{whuqdo lqqrydwruv wr sdwhqw doo wkhlu lqyhqwlrqv/ hyhq wkrvh zlwk yhu| orz ydoxh +l1h1
? f,1 Wkurxjk rssrvlwlrq/ lqfxpehqw jxlog phpehuv kdyh wkh delolw| wr vfuhhq rxw vxfk
lqh!flhqw sdwhqwlqj1 Dw wkh vdph wlph/ rssrvlwlrq doorzv qrq0lqqrydwlqj jxlog phpehuv wr
surwhfw wkhlu vkruw whup dqg orqj whup uhqwv1 Wklv fuhdwhv dq lqfhqwlyh wr eorfn hqwu| ri
ydoxdeoh whfkqrorjlhv e| h{whuqdo lqqrydwruv/ ru wr rssrvh sdwhqwv ri rwkhu jxlog phpehuv hyhq
zkhq wklv kdv olwwoh lpsdfw rq wkh ryhudoo lqgxvwu| surwv1 Wkhvh wudgh0rv vxjjhvw wkdw d
zhoo0ghvljqhg rssrvlwlrq v|vwhp qhhgv wr edodqfh d vfuhhqlqj dqg uhqw0suhvhuydwlrq lqfhqwlyhv1
7
Gdwd dqg phwkrgv
Rxu hpslulfdo zrun lv edvhg rq wzr gdwdvhwv= wkh sdwhqwv judqwhg e| wkh Yhqhwldq Vhqdwh dqg
lqirupdwlrq rq fudiw jxlogv dfwlyh lq wkh Yhqhwldq Uhsxeolf gxulqj wkh Uhqdlvvdqfh1
Rxu pdlq vrxufh ri gdwd rq fudiw jxlogv lv wkh gdwdvhw %Lvwlwx}lrql Frusrudwlyh/ Juxssl
Surihvvlrqdol h Iruph Dvvrfldwlyh gho Odyrur qhoo*Lwdold Prghuqd h Frqwhpsrudqhd% +Lvwlwx}lrql
Frusrudwlyh/ khqfhiruwk, zklfk lv wkh rxwfrph ri d uhvhdufk surmhfw qdqfhg e| wkh Lwdoldq
Plqlvwu| iru Hgxfdwlrq/ Xqlyhuvlw| dqg Uhvhdufk lqyroylqj pxowlsoh Lwdoldq klvwru| ghsduwphqwv1
D frpsuhkhqvlyh ghvfulswlrq ri wkh gdwd lv surylghg lq Prlrol +5337,1
Wkh gdwdvhw frqwdlqv ghwdlohg gljlwl}hg lqirupdwlrq rq fudiw jxlogv lq 88 Lwdoldq flwlhv
iru wkh shulrg 453304;331 Nh| yduldeohv lqfoxgh wkh qdph ri hdfk jxlog/ wkh wlph shulrg ri lwv
dfwlylw| dqg lwv jhrjudsklfdo orfdwlrq1 Iru hdfk jxlog lq wkh vdpsoh/ wkh gdwd surylgh d ghwdlohg
ghvfulswlrq ri wkh uhodwhg pdqxidfwxulqj dqg wudglqj dfwlylwlhv1 Wkh gdwdvhw dovr uhsruwv d
ydulhw| ri lqglfdwruv uhodwhg wr wkh lqwhuqdo rujdql}dwlrq ri wkh jxlog/ vxfk dv wkh suhvhqfh ri
uhvwulfwlrqv wr pdunhw frpshwlwlrq/ olplwv iru wkh dgplvvlrq ri iruhljqhuv/ sulylohjhv judqwhg wr
44
rvsulqj ri wkh jxlog phpehuv/ dqg wkh h{lvwhqfh ri d vwuxfwxuhg dssuhqwlfhvkls v|vwhp1
D frpprq uhvwulfwlrq wr frpshwlwlrq lv sulfh {lqj/ exw jxlog vwdwxwhv dovr lqfoxghg
dgglwlrqdo surylvlrqv vxfk dv d plqlpxp glvwdqfh ehwzhhq zrunvkrsv +cerwwhjkh*, ru d edq wr
vhuyh fxvwrphuv ri rwkhu jxlog phpehuv +Prlrol/ 5337,1 Judqwlqj sulylohjhv wr vrqv dqg vrqv0lq0
odz ri phpehuv zdv d w|slfdo zd| wr uhvwulfw hqwu|1 Lq vrph fdvhv/ vxfk dv wkh jrogvplwk jxlog
ri Yhqlfh/ hqwu| zdv frpsohwho| suhfoxghg wr wkrvh zkr zhuh qrw ghvfhqghqw ri jxlog phpehuv1
Lq rwkhu vwdwxwhv/ kljk hqwu| ihhv ru h{dpv zhuh uhtxluhg iru wkrvh zkr zhuh qrw vrqv ri jxlog
phpehuv +Prlrol/ 5337,1 Vlploduo|/ vwdwxwhv vrphwlph suhfoxghg hqwu| wr doo iruhljqhuv/ ru wr
vrph vshflf hwkqlf jurxs19
Rxu pdlq gdwd vrxufhv rq Yhqhwldq sdwhqwv duh wkh errnv e| Urehuwr Ehuyhjolhul +4<<8/
4<<<, zklfk uhsruw lqirupdwlrq rq wkh sdwhqwv judqwhg e| wkh Vhqdwh uhwulhyhg iurp wkh Vwdwh
Dufklyhv ri Yhqlfh1 Wkhvh vrxufhv h{whqg suhylrxv uhvhdufk e| Jlxolr Pdqglfk +4<69, zkr
wudqvodwhg lqwr prghuq Lwdoldq dqg fodvvlhg 43< sdwhqwv judqwhg e| wkh Yhqhwldq Vhqdwh iru
wkh shulrg 47:7048831 Iru wkh vdph shulrg/ Ehuyhjolhul +4<<8, ghvfulehv 49< sdwhqwv surylglqj
lqirupdwlrq rq wkh whfkqrorjlfdo hog dqg wkh lqyhqwru1 Dsshqgl{ Wdeoh D4 vkrzv wkh whfkqr0
orjlfdo euhdngrzq ri wkhvh sdwhqwv1 Ploov dffrxqw iru urxjko| kdoi ri wkh lqyhqwlrqv/ iroorzhg
e| gudlqdjh ghylfhv +44 shufhqw, dqg k|gudxolf sxpsv +: shufhqw,1
Rxu dqdo|vlv irfxvhv rq 673 fudiw jxlogv lghqwlhg lq wkh Lvwlwx}lrql Frusrudwlyh gdwdvhw
dv dfwlyh lq wkh Yhqhwldq Uhsxeolf ehiruh wkh |hdu 49331 Iru hdfk jxlog/ zh lghqwli| wkh sdwhqwv
judqwhg e| wkh Yhqhwldq Vhqdwh uhodwhg wr lwv pdqxidfwxulqj dfwlylwlhv iroorzlqj wkh ghvfulswlrq
surylghg lq wkh Lvwlwx}lrql Frrshudwlyh gdwd1 Vshflfdoo|/ zh pdqxdoo| pdwfk hdfk jxlog wr
rqh ri wkh sdwhqw whfkqrorj| hogv ghvfulehg lq Wdeoh D4 zkhqhyhu srvvleoh1 Iru vrph ri wkhvh
jxlogv/ zh dovr lghqwli| d vhfrqgdu| whfkqrorj| hog uhohydqw wr wkh dfwlylw|1
Wkh pdlq yduldeohv xvhg lq wkh hpslulfdo dqdo|vlv duh ghvfulehg ehorz1
Sdwhqwv1 Wklv lv wkh hqgrjhqrxv yduldeoh lq wkh dqdo|vlv1 Lw fdswxuhv wkh qxpehu ri
sdwhqwv judqwhg e| wkh Yhqhwldq Vhqdwh iurp 47:7 wr 4883 lq wkh sulpdu| whfkqrorjlfdo hog
ri wkh jxlog1 Rq dyhudjh/ wkhuh duh 417: sdwhqwv lq wkh pdlq whfkqrorj| hog lq zklfk d jxlog
rshudwhv zlwk d vwdqgdug ghyldwlrq ri urxjko| 8 sdwhqwv1
Zh xvh wkh iroorzlqj frqwuro yduldeohv wr fdswxuh wkh pdlq lqjuhglhqwv ri rxu wkhruhwlfdo
9
Xqiruwxqdwho|/ wkh Lvwlwx}lrql Frusrudwlyh gdwdvhw ghvfulehv wkh h{dfw vwdwxwru| surylvlrq rqo| iru d vpdoo
vxevhw ri jxlogv1 Iru prvw jxlog wkh lqirupdwlrq lv dydlodeoh rqo| dv d gxpp| +l1h1 uhvwulfwlrq wr frpshwlwlrqB
\2Q Sulylohjhv wr vrqvB \2Q/ hwf1 1 1 ,1 Wklv lv wkh pdlq uhdvrq zk| rxu hpslulfdo dqdo|vlv irfxvhv rq elqdu|
yduldeohv1
45
prgho1
Vwurqj lqwhuqdo uhjxodwlrq1 Wklv gxpp| yduldeoh lv vhw wr rqh li wkh jxlog kdv lqwhuqdo
uxohv zklfk= +l, olplw frpshwlwlrq dprqj wkh phpehuv/ +ll, judqw sulylohjhv wr vrqv ri jxlog
phpehuv dqg +lll, uhvwulfw hqwu| uljkwv ri iruhljqhuv1
Glvwdqfh wr Yhqlfh1 Wklv yduldeoh fdswxuhv wkh glvwdqfh +lq Npv, iurp wkh flw| ri wkh
jxlog dqg Yhqlfh1
Wudgh Jxlog1 Wklv gxpp| htxdov rqh iru jxlogv zklfk duh rqo| lqyroyhg lq wudgh dqg
qrw lq pdqxidfwxulqj1 Urxjko| 79 shufhqw ri wkh jxlogv lq rxu vdpsoh duh wudgh jxlogv1
Jxlog Phpehuv1 Wklv lqirupdwlrq lv dydlodeoh rqo| iru 49< jxlogv1 Rq dyhudjh jxlogv
lq rxu vdpsoh kdyh 497 phpehuv +zlwk phgldq htxdo wr 7; dqg vwdqgdug ghyldwlrq 6<5,1
Wdeoh 4 surylghv vxppdu| vwdwlvwlfv dqg looxvwudwhv wkh jhrjudsklfdo glvwulexwlrq ri wkh
jxlogv lq rxu vdpsoh dfurvv wkh pdlq flwlhv ri wkh Yhqhwldq Uhsxeolf1 Derxw 54 shufhqw ri
wkh jxlogv lq rxu gdwd kdyh vwurqj lqwhuqdo uhjxodwlrq1 Urxjko| 83 shufhqw ri wkh jxlogv duh
orfdwhg lq Yhqlfh1 Yhurqd/ Sdgryd dqg Euhvfld duh wkh flwlhv zlwk pruh jxlogv lq wkh pdlqodqg
+Whuudihupd,1 Rxu pdlq dqdo|vlv irfxvhv rq wkh shulrg iroorzlqj wkh sdwhqw dfw/ 47:7048831
Uhvwulfwlqj wkh vwxg| rq wklv shulrg doorzv xv wr dyrlg wkh 48:80:9 sodjxh zklfk kdg surirxqg
lpsdfwv rq wkh Yhqhwldq hfrqrp|1 Judqgl +4<<3, dqg Sh}}ror +5346, grfxphqw wkh odujh
ghprjudsklf hhfwv ri wkh sodjxh/ zlwk dq hvwlpdwhg ghfuhdvh lq srsxodwlrq ehwzhhq 48 dqg
59 shufhqw1
714
Hfrqrphwulf vshflfdwlrq
Exloglqj rq wkh wkhruhwlfdo dqdo|vlv ri Vhfwlrq 6/ rxu pdlq hfrqrphwulf prgho irfxvhv rq wkh
uhodwlrqvkls ehwzhhq rxu phdvxuh ri sdwhqwlqj/ S dwhqwvl > uhodwhg wr jxlog l orfdwhg lq flw| m
dqg wkh lqglfdwru iru wkh vwuhqjwk ri lqwhuqdo uhjxodwlrq ri wkh jxlog1 Zh w|slfdoo| prgho wkh
frqglwlrqdo h{shfwdwlrq ri sdwhqwlqj dfwlylw| dv
H+S dwhqwvl , @ h{s+Vwurqj lqwhuqdo uhjxodwlrql . {l . m ,
zkhuh {l lv d yhfwru ri frqwuro yduldeohv dqg m lv d flw|0vshflf lglrv|qfudwlf hhfw1 Wkh orj0
olqn irupxodwlrq lv dssursuldwh lq rxu vhwwlqj ehfdxvh ri wkh qrq0qhjdwlyh dqg kljko| vnhzhg
qdwxuh ri rxu frxqw0edvhg ghshqghqw yduldeoh1 Zh hvwlpdwh wklv prgho yld Srlvvrq/ zlwk urexvw
vwdqgdug huuruv wr dffrxqw iru ryhu glvshuvlrq1
46
8
Hpslulfdo uhvxowv
Wdeoh 5 surylghv wkh uvw vhw ri uhvxowv1 Wkh uhjuhvvlrqv vkrz d vwurqj qhjdwlyh dvvrfldwlrq
ehwzhhq wkh sdwhqwv judqwhg lq wkh whfkqrorj| hog ri d jxlog dqg wkh vwuhqjwk ri lwv lqwhuqdo
uxohv1 Doo uhjuhvvlrqv lqfoxgh d frqwuro iru wudgh jxlogv zklfk lqglfdwhv vxevwdqwldoo| orzhu
sdwhqwlqj dfwlylw| iru wklv w|sh ri rujdql}dwlrqv1 Lq froxpq 5 zh frqwuro iru wkh jhrjudsklf
glvwdqfh ehwzhhq wkh flw| lq zklfk d jxlog lv orfdwhg dqg Yhqlfh1 Wkh olnholkrrg ri sdwhqwlqj
lqfuhdvhv zlwk wkh glvwdqfh iurp Yhqlfh/ dqg wkh frh!flhqw rq lqwhuqdo uhjxodwlrq uhpdlqv
vwdeoh1 Froxpq 6 vkrzv wkdw wkh uhodwlrqvkls ehwzhhq jxlog vwdwxwh vwuhqjwk dqg sdwhqwlqj
lv urexvw wr wkh lqfoxvlrq ri flw| {hg hhfwv1 H{srqhqwldwlrq ri wkh frh!flhqw lpsolhv wkdw
sdwhqwlqj lv urxjko| 98 shufhqw orzhu zkhq jxlogv dgrsw vwurqj lqwhuqdo uhjxodwlrq1 Lq froxpq
7 zh vkrz wkdw uhvxowv duh vlplodu hyhq zkhq zh frqwuro iru wkh qxpehu ri jxlog phpehuv/
hyhq li wklv uhvwulfwv wkh dqdo|vlv wr d pxfk vpdoohu vdpsoh1 Wkh frh!flhqw rq wkh qxpehu ri
phpehuv lv srvlwlyh +exw vwdwlvwlfdoo| lqvljqlfdqw,/ vxjjhvwlqj wkdw sdwhqwlqj lv pruh iuhtxhqw
lq whfkqrorj| hogv zkhuh jxlogv duh odujhu1:
Zh shuirup d ydulhw| ri dgglwlrqdo hpslulfdo whvwv wr frqup wkh urexvwqhvv ri wkhvh
qglqjv1 Iluvw/ zh vkrz wkdw wkh hvwlpdwhv rq wkh vwuhqjwk ri lqwhuqdo uhjxodwlrq dqg rq
jhrjudsklfdo glvwdqfh duh xqdhfwhg rqfh zh lqfoxgh dgglwlrqdo frqwurov iru flw| fkdudfwhulvwlfv1
Lq froxpq 4 ri dsshqgl{ wdeoh D5 zh vkrz urexvwqhvv wr wkh lqfoxvlrq ri frqwurov iru wkh vl}h
ri wkh flw| phdvxuhg zlwk srsxodwlrq lq 4633/ 4733 dqg 4833 +gdwd iurp Pdodqlpd/ 4<<;,1
Lqwhuhvwlqjo|/ srsxodwlrq frqwurov gr qrw dsshdu wr h{sodlq pxfk ri wkh yduldqfh lq sdwhqwlqj
dfwlylw|/ vxjjhvwlqj wkdw wkh qxpehu ri sdwhqwv lv qrw vlpso| gulyhq e| flw| vl}h1 Lq d prgho
zlwk flw| hhfwv/ Froxpq 5 ri wdeoh D5 vkrzv wkdw wkh qhjdwlyh fruuhodwlrq ehwzhhq vwuhqjwk
ri wkh vwdwxwh dqg sdwhqwlqj lv urexvw wr lqfoxglqj d ydulhw| ri dgglwlrqdo frqwurov iru jxlog
fkdudfwhulvwlfv vxfk dv wkh djh ri wkh jxlog +lq 4833, dqg d gxpp| iru wkh suhvhqfh ri dq
dssuhqwlfhvkls v|vwhp1; Wkh uhjuhvvlrq dovr lqfoxghv lqgxvwu| hhfwv iru jxlogv lq djulfxowxuh/
frqvwuxfwlrq dqg wh{wloh1 Froxpq 6 vkrzv wkdw uhvxowv duh vlplodu li zh xvh dq dowhuqdwlyh
+ohvv uhvwulfwlyh, pdsslqj ehwzhhq jxlogv dqg sdwhqw whfkqrorj| vhfwruv1 Pruh suhflvho|/ zh
:
Lq xquhsruwhg uhjuhvvlrqv zh fdswxuh jxlogv zlwk d odujh qxpehu ri phpehuv zlwk d gxpp| yduldeoh htxdo
wr rqh li wkh qxpehu ri phpehuv lv deryh wkh wrs txlqwloh +4;3 phpehuv,1 Lq vxfk vshflfdwlrqv wkh gxpp| lv
srvlwlyh dqg vwdwlvwlfdoo| vljqlfdqw dw wkh 314 ohyho vxssruwlqj wkh lghd wkdw sdwhqwlqj lv pruh olnho| lq hogv
zkhuh jxlogv kdyh pdq| phpehuv1
;
Gh od Furl{ hw do +5349, glvfxvv krz dssuhqwlfhvkls zdv d nh| ghwhuplqdqw ri hfrqrplf jurzwk lq Phglhydo
flwlhv1
47
frqvwuxfw d qhz ghshqghqw yduldeoh lpsxwlqj wr hdfk jxlog sdwhqwv lq wkh wzr whfkqrorj|
vhfwruv zklfk duh forvhu wr wkh jxlog dfwlylw|1 Dovr lq wklv fdvh/ uhvxowv duh yhu| vlplodu wr
rxu edvholqh hvwlpdwhv1 Ilqdoo|/ lq froxpq 7 ri wdeoh D5 zh vkrz wkdw uhvxowv duh urexvw wr
h{sdqglqj wlph shulrg frqvlghulqj wkh sdwhqwlqj dfwlylw| +lq wkh pdlq whfkqrorj| hog, xs wr
49331 Lq d vhfrqg vhw ri xquhsruwhg whvwv/ zh frqup wkh urexvwqhvv ri rxu pdlq qglqjv wr
hvwlpdwlqj dowhuqdwlyh hfrqrphwulf vshflfdwlrqv vxfk dv ROV dqg d olqhdu suredelolw| prgho
iru wkh suhvhqfh ri dw ohdvw rqh sdwhqw iru wkh jxlog1 Zh dovr vkrz wkdw uhvxowv duh urexvw wr
gursslqj iurp wkh vdpsoh wkh jxlogv orfdwhg lq Yhqlfh1<
Wkhuh lv wkh frqfhuq wkdw wkh hhfw ri vwdwxwru| qrupv rq sdwhqwlqj lv qrw gulyhq e|
vshflf surylvlrqv uhodwhg wr hqwu| dqg frpshwlwlrq/ exw e| rwkhu vwdwxwru| uxohv1 Vshflfdoo|/
wkh uhdghu pd| zruu| wkdw rxu cvwurqj lqwhuqdo uhjxodwlrq* yduldeoh vlpso| fdswxuhv vwdwxwhv
zklfk duh yhu| ghwdlohg/ dqg wkdw vrph rwkhu uxoh lq wkhvh vwdwxwhv pd| dhfw sdwhqwlqj pruh
wkdq wkrvh uhodwhg wr hqwu| dqg frpshwlwlrq1 Wr dgguhvv wklv frqfhuq/ zh shuirup d qxpehu
ri sodfher whvwv frqvwuxfwlqj yduldeohv zklfk lghqwli| vwdwxwhv frqwdlqlqj ghwdlohg uhjxodwlrqv
ri jxlogv dfwlylwlhv qrw gluhfwo| uhodwhg wr hqwu| dqg frpshwlwlrq1 Iru h{dpsoh/ lq froxpq 8 ri
wdeoh D5 wkh yduldeoh cghwdlohg vwdwxwh sodfher* htxdov rqh li wkh vwdwxwh lqfoxghv= +l, d olvw ri
pdqxidfwxulqj dfwlylwlhv suhfoxghg wr zrphq/ +ll, wkh qdph ri wkh jxlog*v sdwurq vdlqw dqg +lll, d
ghvfulswlrq ri wkh klhudufklfdo vwuxfwxuh ri wkh jxlog1 Wkh frh!flhqw rq wklv yduldeoh lv srvlwlyh/
vwdwlvwlfdoo| lqvljqlfdqw dqg vpdoo lq pdjqlwxgh1 Zh rewdlq vlplodu hvwlpdwhv +srvlwlyh/ vpdoo
dqg vwdwlvwlfdoo| lqvljqlfdqw, zlwk dowhuqdwlyh sodfher whvwv zklfk h{sorlw ydulrxv frpelqdwlrqv
ri wkh deryh yduldeohv dqg rwkhu vwdwxwru| fodxvhv vxfk dv wkh suhvhqfh ri dq dssuhqwlfhvkls
v|vwhp/ ru ri whfkqlfdo uhvwulfwlrqv rq wkh txdolw| ri wkh surgxfwv1 Wkhvh qglqjv vxssruw wkh
lghd wkdw wkh surylvlrqv lq jxlog vwdwxwhv uhvwulfwlqj hqwu| dqg frpshwlwlrq duh vwurqjo| uhodwhg
wr sdwhqwlqj surshqvlw|/ exw qrw rwkhu vwdwxwru| uxohv1
Rqh pd| dovr eh frqfhuqhg zlwk fkdqjhv lq vwdwxwru| fodxvhv ryhu wlph1 Wzr wklqjv
qhhg wr eh qrwhg khuh1 Iluvw/ wkh frglqj ri vwdwxwru| uxohv lq wkh cLvwlwx}lrql Frusrudwlyh* gdwd
w|slfdoo| uholhv rq grfxphqwv frqwhpsrudqhrxv wr wkh sdwhqw dfw +Prlrol/ 5337,1 Wkxv/ wkh
<
Zh dovr uxq d uhjuhvvlrq zklfk vhsdudwho| lqfoxghv gxpplhv iru hdfk ri wkh wkuhh frpsrqhqwv ri wkh vwurqj
jxlog yduldeoh +l1h1/ olplwv wr sulfh frpshwlwlrq/ sulylohjhv wr rvsulqj ri wkh jxlog phpehuv dqg olplwv wr iruhljq
phpehuv,1 Doo frh!flhqwv duh lqvljqlfdqw dqg zh fdqqrw uhmhfw wkdw wkh| duh htxdo wr hdfk rwkhu1 Lqfoxglqj
wkh vwurqj jxlog lqglfdwru wrjhwkhu zlwk wkh wkuhh gxpplhv dovr ohdgv wr lqvljqlfdqw frh!flhqwv iru wkh wkuhh
lqglylgxdo frpsrqhqwv/ exw d qhjdwlyh dqg vwdwlvwlfdoo| vljqlfdqw hhfw iru vwurqj jxlog zlwk d pdjqlwxgh vlplodu
wr wkh rqh lq rxu edvholqh uhjuhvvlrq1 Pruhryhu/ gursslqj rqh ri wkh frpsrqhqwv ri wkh vwurqj jxlog gxpp|
ohdgv wr lqvljqlfdqw frh!flhqwv/ exw zh fdqqrw uhmhfw wkdw wkh| duh htxdo wr rxu edvholqh frh!flhqw1 Wkhvh
urexvwqhvv fkhfnv vxjjhvw wkdw lw lv qrw rqo| rqh ihdwxuh ri wkh vwdwxwh wkdw gulyhv wkh hhfw dqg wkdw rqo| jxlog
vwdwxwhv zlwk ghwdlohg uxohv rq doo wkuhh ihdwxuhv fruuhodwh zlwk orzhu sdwhqwlqj1
48
frglqj lv qrw olnho| wr uh hfw wkh fodxvhv suhvhqw lq wkh roghvw ru prvw prghuq yhuvlrqv ri wkh
vwdwxwhv1 Vhfrqg/ klvwruldqv kdyh hpskdvl}hg krz fkdqjhv lq jxlog vwdwxwhv ryhu wlph w|slfdoo|
ohg wr orzhu hqwu| eduulhuv dqg juhdwhu frpshwlwlrq +Frvwdqwlql/ 4<;:,1 Wklv lpsolhv wkdw lq
frqvwuxfwlqj vwurqj lqwhuqdo uhjxodwlrq zh duh pruh olnho| wr fodvvli| dv vwurqj/ vwdwxwhv zklfk
duh qrw vwurqj> dqg wkxv phdvxuhphqw huuru zloo eldv rxu hvwlpdwhv wrzdug }hur1
Zkloh wkh gdwdvhw surylghv lqirupdwlrq rq zkhwkhu wkh vwdwxwh ri d jxlog fkdqjhv ryhu
wlph/ zh gr qrw nqrz wkh h{dfw fodxvhv zklfk duh dhfwhg e| wkh fkdqjh/ zklfk suhfoxghv xv
wr xvh wkh orqjlwxglqdo qdwxuh ri wkh gdwd1 Qrqhwkhohvv/ zh h{sorlw wklv lqirupdwlrq wr shuirup
urexvwqhvv whvwv1 Vshflfdoo|/ zh lghqwli| vwdwxwhv zklfk fkdqjhg gxulqj wkh shulrg 47:7048831
Lq urxjko| ;4 shufhqw ri wkh vdpsoh wkhuh lv qr vwdwxwru| fkdqjh gxulqj wkh wlph shulrg/ iru
derxw 4; shufhqw ri wkh jxlogv wkh vwdwxwh lv fkdqjhg rqfh/ dqg iru wkh uhpdlqlqj 4 shufhqw
lw lv fkdqjhg wzlfh1 Lq froxpq 9 ri wdeoh D5 zh vkrz wkdw rxu edvholqh hvwlpdwhv duh urexvw
wr gursslqj jxlogv zklfk fkdqjh wkhlu vwdwxwhv gxulqj rxu vdpsoh shulrg1 Wkh frh!flhqw lv
urxjko| 48 shufhqw odujhu wkdq rxu edvholqh frquplqj wkh lghd wkdw phdvxuhphqw huuru eldvhv
rxu hvwlpdwhv wrzdug }hur143
Zh wxuq qh{w wr wzr h{whqvlrqv wkdw duh ri lqghshqghqw lqwhuhvw1
Iluvw/ zh h{dplqh zkhwkhu wkh ghwhuplqdqwv ri sdwhqwlqj glhu frpsdulqj orfdo dqg
iruhljq lqyhqwruv1 Zh rewdlq lqirupdwlrq rq wkh ruljlq ri wkh lqyhqwru iurp Ehuyhjolhul +4<<8,
wkdw vkrzv wkdw rqo| 918 shufhqw ri wkh sdwhqwv lq wkh vdpsoh duh judqwhg wr iruhljq lqyhqwruv1
Froxpqv 4 wr 7 ri Wdeoh 6 vkrz vwdwlvwlfdoo| vljqlfdqw dvvrfldwlrqv ehwzhhq jhrjudsklfdo
glvwdqfh dqg vwuhqjwk ri lqwhuqdo uxohv iru sdwhqwlqj erwk ri orfdo dqg ri iruhljq lqyhqwruv1
Wkh pdjqlwxgh ri wkhvh fruuhodwlrqv lv pxfk vpdoohu iru iruhljq lqyhqwruv1 Qrqhwkhohvv/ rxu
hvwlpdwhv vkrz wkdw wkh fkdudfwhulvwlfv ri wkh flw| dqg wkh jxlog vhhp wr dhfw sdwhqwlqj
surshqvlw| ri lqyhqwruv lqghshqghqwo| ri wkhlu ruljlq144 Lw lv srvvleoh wr uhfrqfloh wkh odujhu
pdjqlwxgh ri wkh hhfw iru orfdo lqyhqwruv zlwk rxu wkhruhwlfdo prgho1 Lq idfw/ xqghu ydulrxv
vwdqgdug dvvxpswlrqv rq wkh glvwulexwlrq ri wkh sdudphwhu +h1j1 xqlirup/ h{srqhqwldo/ hwf1,
wkh ghulydwlyh ri wkh suredelolw| ri sdwhqwlqj zlwk uhvshfw wr kdv vpdoohu pdjqlwxgh iru
h{whuqdo lqqrydwruv wkdq iru jxlog phpehuv1
43
Zh frqup wklv uhvxow lq uhjuhvvlrqv= +l, zklfk lqfoxgh d frqwuro iru wkh qxpehu ri vwdwxwru| fkdqjhv/ dqg
+ll, frqvlghu fkdqjhv ryhu glhuhqw wlph zlqgrzv1
44
Iroorzlqj Ehuyhjolhul +4<<8, zh uhihu wr dq lqyhqwru dv iruhljq li kh lv qrw Lwdoldq1 Uhvxowv duh vlplodu li zh
h{whqg wkh ghqlwlrq wr qrq0phpehuv ri wkh Yhqhwldq Uhsxeolf +derxw 53 shufhqw ri sdwhqwv duh khog e| iruhljq
lqyhqwruv zlwk wklv ghqlwlrq,1
49
Vhfrqg/ wkhuh lv wkh frqfhuq wkdw rxu pdwfklqj ehwzhhq jxlogv dqg sdwhqwv lv grqh
h{foxvlyho| wkurxjk wkh whfkqrorj| vhfwru ri hdfk jxlog/ ljqrulqj wkh jhrjudsklfdo vfrsh ri
wkh sdwhqw1 Wklv lv ehfdxvh rxu pdlq gdwd vrxufhv +Ehuyhjolhul/ 4<<8> 4<<<, gr qrw uhsruw
wkh jhrjudsklfdo fryhudjh ri hdfk sdwhqw uljkw1 Lqglfdwlrq ri wkh jhrjudsklfdo vfrsh ri wkh
sdwhqw lv dydlodeoh iru wkh vpdoohu vdpsoh ri sdwhqwv frqvwuxfwhg e| Pdqglfk +4<69,1 Wkhvh
gdwd vkrz wkdw urxjko| ;; shufhqw ri wkh sdwhqwv lq wkh vdpsoh duh hqirufhdeoh rq wkh hqwluh
grplqlrq1 Wkh uhpdlqlqj sdwhqwv duh rqo| hqirufhdeoh lq vshflf orfdwlrqv +h1j1 rqo| lq Yhqlfh
ru rwkhu vshflf flwlhv,1 Zh xvh wkhvh gdwd wr frqvwuxfw dq dowhuqdwlyh ghshqghqw yduldeoh zklfk
lpsxwhv wkh sdwhqw zlwk olplwhg jhrjudsklfdo vfrsh rqo| wr wkh jxlogv orfdwhg lq wkh uhohydqw
flwlhv1 Froxpq 8 dqg 9 vkrz wkdw rxu uhvxowv rq wkh jhrjudsklfdo glvwdqfh dqg rq wkh vwuhqjwk
ri lqwhuqdo uxohv duh urexvw wr h{sorlwlqj wklv dowhuqdwlyh phdvxuh ri sdwhqwlqj1
814
Glvwdqfh iurp Yhqlfh dqg sdwhqwlqj
Wkh uhjuhvvlrqv uhsruwhg lq Wdeohv 5 dqg 6 vkrz wkdw sdwhqwlqj lv pruh surqrxqfhg lq whfk0
qrorj| hogv ri jxlogv orfdwhg lq flwlhv wkdw duh jhrjudsklfdoo| glvwdqw iurp Yhqlfh1 D srvvleoh
lqwhusuhwdwlrq ri wklv qglqj lv wkdw irupdo surwhfwlrq wkurxjk sdwhqw grfxphqwv lv pruh ehqh0
fldo iru lqqrydwruv rshudwlqj ixuwkhu dzd| iurp wkh fhqwhu ri srolwlfdo dfwlylw|1 Lq rwkhu zrugv/
lqqrydwruv zkr duh forvh wr Yhqlfh pd| kdyh dffhvv wr dowhuqdwlyh +irupdo ru lqirupdo, phfkd0
qlvpv wr surwhfw wkhlu whfkqrorjlhv1 Dqrwkhu lqwhusuhwdwlrq ri wkh qglqj lv wkdw pruh glvwdqw
flwlhv duh lqkhuhqwo| glhuhqw lq wkhlu hfrqrplf dfwlylw| dqg kxpdq fdslwdo dqg wklv h{sodlqv
wkhlu sdwhqwlqj surshqvlw|1
Wr h{dplqh wklv lvvxh/ lq froxpq 4 dqg 5 ri Wdeoh 7 zh lqwurgxfh dgglwlrqdo frqwurov
zklfk fdswxuh dgglwlrqdo ihdwxuhv ri wkh flwlhv lq rxu vdpsoh1 Iluvw/ zh lqfoxgh wkh srsxodwlrq
ri wkh flw| lq 48331 Vhfrqg/ zh lqfoxgh d phdvxuh iru wkh qxpehu ri qreoh idplolhv uhvlglqj lq
hdfk flw|1 Wr frqvwuxfw wklv yduldeoh/ zh gljlwl}h wkh fhqvxv ri wkh sdwulfldq idplolhv uhvlglqj
lq wkh pdlq flwlhv ri wkh Yhqhwr dqg qhdue| uhjlrqv frpslohg lq wkh qlqhwhhqwk fhqwxu| e|
Vfkurhghu +4;63,1 Iru hdfk idplo| Vfkurhghu uhsruwv wkh gdwh lq zklfk wkh idplo| rewdlqv wkh
qrelolw| wlwoh dqg wkh flw| lq zklfk lw uhvlghv1 H{sorlwlqj wklv gdwd zh frxqw wkh qxpehu ri
qreoh idplolhv uhvlglqj lq hdfk flw| gxulqj rxu vdpsoh shulrg1 Rq dyhudjh flwlhv lq rxu vdpsoh
kdyh 93 qreoh idplolhv zlwk pruh wkdq 433 idplolhv uhvlglqj lq Yhqlfh dqg vpdoohu flwlhv +vxfk
dv Xglqh dqg Wuhylvr, krvwlqj ohvv wkdq 63 idplolhv145
45
Wr h{sorlw wklv phdvxuh/ zh gurs 9 revhuydwlrqv iurp rxu vdpsoh ehfdxvh wkh| duh dvvrfldwhg wr vpdoohu
flwlhv zklfk zhuh qrw fryhuhg lq wkh errnv ri Vfkurhghu +4;63,1
4:
Froxpq 4 ri Wdeoh 7 vkrzv wkdw wkhuh lv d srvlwlyh dqg vwdwlvwlfdoo| vljqlfdqw fruuhodwlrq
ehwzhhq wkh qxpehu ri qreoh idplolhv lq d flw| dqg sdwhqwlqj e| wkh jxlogv lq wkh flw|1 Dw wkh
vdph wlph/ wkh uhjuhvvlrq dovr vkrzv wkdw wkh qxpehu ri qreoh idplolhv lq d flw| h{sodlqv pxfk
pruh ri wkh yduldqfh lq sdwhqwv wkdq lwv srsxodwlrq1 Lqfoxglqj wkhvh frqwurov kdv qr hhfw rq
wkh hvwlpdwhv ri wkh hhfw ri jhrjudsklfdo glvwdqfh dqg lqwhuqdo vwuhqjwk ri wkh jxlog1 Wklv
qglqj vxjjhvwv wkdw sdwhqwlqj lv qrw vlpso| gulyhq e| wkh vkhhu vl}h ri wkh flw|/ exw lw olnho|
wr eh uhodwhg wr rwkhu uhjlrqdo fkdudfwhulvwlfv1 Iru h{dpsoh/ wkh suhvhqfh ri qreoh idplolhv lq d
flw| pd| dhfw wkh txdolw| ri lwv kxpdq fdslwdo dqg wkxv vsxu whfkqrorjlfdo dfwlylw|1
Lq froxpq 5 zh h{whqg rxu prgho dgglqj d yduldeoh zklfk fdswxuhv wkh srolwlfdo vwuhqjwk
ri wkh qreoh idplolhv uhvlglqj lq d flw|1 Zh frqvwuxfw wklv yduldeoh frpelqlqj wkh gljlwl}hg
fhqvxv ri sdwulfldq idplolhv zlwk pxowlsoh gdwd vrxufhv1 Wkh uvw lv wkh olvw ri idplolhv zkr duh
phpehuv ri wkh Juhdw Frxqflo iroorzlqj wkh Vhuudwd ri 45<: xs wr wkh idoo ri wkh uhsxeolf lq
4:<: surylghg e| Udlqhv +5337,1 Wkh vhfrqg lv gdwd rq pduuldjhv lqyroylqj d qreoh kxvedqg
iru wkh shulrg 4733048<< dydlodeoh iurp wkh Dufklylr gl Vwdwr gl Yhqh}ld dqg gljlwl}hg e| Sxjd
dqg Wuh hu +5347,1 Frpelqlqj wkhvh gdwd vrxufhv/ zh frqvwuxfw dq lqglfdwru yduldeoh zklfk
htxdov rqh li lq wkh flw| wkhuh lv dw ohdvw rqh idplo| zklfk ehorqjv wr wkh Juhdw Frxqflo ru zklfk
lv olqnhg wkurxjk pduuldjh wr d idplo| lq wkh Juhdw Frxqflo146
Lqwhuhvwlqjo|/ zh qg d qhjdwlyh dqg vwdwlvwlfdoo| vljqlfdqw dvvrfldwlrq ehwzhhq wkh
suhvhqfh ri srolwlfdoo| frqqhfwhg idplolhv dqg sdwhqwlqj ri wkh jxlogv lq wkh flw|/ vxjjhvwlqj
wkdw surwhfwlrq wkurxjk irupdo lqvwlwxwlrqv vxfk dv sdwhqwv zdv d vxevwlwxwh wr dowhuqdwlyh
irupv ri surwhfwlrq dydlodeoh wr jxlogv zlwk vwurqjhu srolwlfdo frqqhfwlrqv1 Wkhuh lv wkh frqfhuq
wkdw wkh uhvxowv ri froxpqv 4 dqg 5 duh gulyhq e| ohjdo dqg mxglfldo glhuhqfhv ehwzhhq Yhqlfh
dqg rwkhu flwlhv lq wkh vdpsoh/ ehfdxvh ri klvwrulfdo wudglwlrqv dqg ehfdxvh prvw ri wkh qreoh
idplolhv dqg phpehuv ri Juhdw Frxqflo uhvlghg lq Yhqlfh +Nqdswrq/ 5346,1 Wr dgguhvv wklv
lvvxh/ lq froxpq 6 zh gurs iurp rxu vdpsoh doo wkh Yhqhwldq jxlogv1 Doo rxu qglqjv duh urexvw
wr irfxvlqj rq wklv vpdoohu vdpsoh ri jxlogv orfdwhg lq Whuudihupd1
Iurp d wkhruhwlfdo shuvshfwlyh wkh uhodwlrqvkls ehwzhhq sdwhqwlqj dqg srolwlfdo ru jhr0
judsklfdo glvwdqfh iurp Yhqlfh lv dpeljxrxv1 Rq rqh kdqg/ sdwhqwv pljkw kdyh ehhq hdvlhu
wr hqirufh iru lqyhqwruv orfdwhg forvhu wr wkh fdslwdo1 Rq wkh rwkhu kdqg/ lqyhqwruv dqg jxlog
phpehuv srolwlfdoo| frqqhfwhg pljkw kdyh ehhq deoh wr rewdlq surwhfwlrq iurp wkh jryhuqphqw
46
Pruh wkdq kdoi ri wkh flwlhv lq rxu vdpsoh duh qrw frqqhfwhg wr wkh Juhdw Frxqflo dffruglqj wr wklv phdvxuh1
Zh xvh dq lqglfdwru yduldeoh ehfdxvh ri wkh olplwhg yduldqfh lq wklv yduldeoh +d sduw iurp Yhqlfh/ lq doo wkh rwkhu
flwlhv wkh qxpehu ri olqnhg idplolhv udqjhv ehwzhhq 3 dqg 6,1
4;
wkurxjk rwkhu irupdo ru lqirupdo fkdqqhov1 Rxu hpslulfdo hylghqfh vxjjhvwv wkdw wkh vhfrqg
hhfw grplqdwhg wkh uvw rqh dqg wkdw sdwhqwv zhuh qrw dv zlghvsuhdg dprqj jxlogv orfdwhg
lq wkh sur{lplw| ri Yhqlfh dqg dprqj wkrvh zlwk juhdwhu srolwlfdo frqqhfwlrq1 D ydulhw| ri
klvwrulfdo dffrxqwv fdq vxssruw wklv qglqj1 Iluvw/ wkh Jlxvwl}ld Yhffkld 0 zklfk zdv wkh pdlq
pdjlvwudf| hqiruflqj jxlog vwdwxwhv dqg vroylqj glvsxwhv ehwzhhq jxlog phpehuv zdv orfdwhg
lq Yhqlfh +Prqwlfror/ 4;<5> Vkdz/ 5335,1 Forvhu lqwhudfwlrq zlwk jxlogv orfdwhg lq wkh ylflqlw|
ri Yhqlfh pd| kdyh doorzhg uhvroxwlrq ri glvsxwhv rq qhz surgxfwv dqg surfhvvhv zlwkrxw wkh
qhhg ri irupdo sdwhqw grfxphqwv1 Vhfrqg/ vrph ri wkh jxlogv orfdwhg lq Yhqlfh vxfk dv wkrvh
dfwlyh lq wkh Duvhqdo dqg Pxudqr*v jodvveorzhuv 0 zhuh xqghu forvh vfuxwlq| ri wkh Yhqhwldq
jryhuqphqw zklfk riwhq lqwurgxfhg ohjlvodwlyh dfwv wr frpsohphqw jxlog vwdwxwhv dqg wr surylgh
dgglwlrqdo uhjxodwlrq wr wkh vhfwru1 Wkhuhiruh/ whfkqrorj| dgrswlrq pd| kdyh ehhq uhjxodwhg
wkurxjk dowhuqdwlyh fkdqqhov iru wkhvh jxlogv1 Iru h{dpsoh/ Fdqldwr +4<<9, ghvfulehv ydulrxv
ohjlvodwlyh dfwv uhodwhg wr wkh Duvhqdo jxlog phpehuv zklfk surwhfwhg orfdo surgxfwlrq +l1h1/ e|
exuqlqj vklsv qrw exlow lq Yhqlfh, dqg zklfk uhzdughg vhohfwhg iruhljq vklsexloghuv +vxfk dv
Dqwrqlr gh Grvvlv iurp Pdqwryd,1 Vlploduo|/ Gdydq}r Srol +4<;7, ghvfulehv d Vhqdwh ghflvlrq
lq 4795 zlwk surylvlrqv vxssruwlqj wkh wdqqhu dqg vkrhpdnhu jxlogv ri Yhqlfh1
815
Lqvwuxphqwlqj jxlog*v uhjxodwlrq vwuhqjwk
Rxu dqdo|vlv kdv vkrzq d vwurqj qhjdwlyh dvvrfldwlrq ehwzhhq wkh vwuhqjwk ri wkh lqwhuqdo
uxohv jryhuqlqj d jxlog dqg sdwhqwlqj lq wkh whfkqrorj| duhd lq zklfk wkh jxlog rshudwhv1 Zh
grfxphqwhg urexvwqhvv lq d ydulhw| ri vshflfdwlrqv zklfk lqfoxgh flw| hhfwv dqg frqwurov
iru pxowlsoh fkdudfwhulvwlfv ri wkh jxlogv1 Wr lqwhusuhw wklv fruuhodwlrq fdxvdoo| lv fkdoohqjlqj
ehfdxvh srwhqwldo xqrevhuydeoh yduldeohv pd| eh fruuhodwhg erwk zlwk rxu phdvxuh ri lqwhuqdo
vwuhqjwk dqg zlwk sdwhqwlqj1 Iru h{dpsoh/ vrph ri wkh jxlogv lq rxu vdpsoh pd| qrw kdyh
lqwhuqdo jryhuqdqfh uxohv ehfdxvh wkh ghyhorsphqw ri qhz whfkqrorjlhv kdv olplwhg wkhlu delolw|
wr vhw wkhp1 Wr dvvhvv wkh fdxvdo lpsdfw ri vwdwxwru| uxohv zh qhhg dq lqvwuxphqwdo yduldeoh/
]/ zklfk lv fruuhodwhg zlwk wkh suhvhqfh ri lqwhuqdo jryhuqdqfh dqg xqolnho| wr eh fruuhodwhg
zlwk sdwhqwlqj wuhqgv1
Lq wklv vhfwlrq/ zh sursrvh dq lqvwuxphqw zklfk uholhv rq wkh uholjlrxv ruljlq ri vrph ri
wkh jxlogv lq rxu gdwdvhw1 Lq idfw/ d qxpehu ri wkh jxlogv lq rxu vdpsoh fdq eh olqnhg wr uholjlrxv
frqiudwhuqlwlhv1 Wkhvh frqiudwhuqlwlhv ruljlqdwhg iurp wkh vxffhvv ri wkh djhoodqw pryhphqw ri
4<
wkh 46wk fhqwxu|/ zklfk suhfhghg wkh glxvlrq ri duwlvdq jxlogv lq wkh Yhqhwldq Uhsxeolf147
D frqiudwhuqlw| +dovr fdoohg cvfrod* ru ciudwdohd*, zdv dq dvvrfldwlrq ri od| shrsoh gulyhq e|
Fkulvwldq ghyrwlrq dqg zrun ri fkdulw| +Jdvsdulql/ 4<;:,1 Frqiudwhuqlw| phpehuv zhuh uhtxluhg
wr iroorz uxohv dqg e|odzv lq h{fkdqjh ri khos lq wlph ri kdugvkls dqg wkh vhfxulw| ri d jrrg
ixqhudo +Prqlwlfror/ 4<38,1 Zkloh shrsoh iurp doo vrfldo fodvvhv frxog mrlq d frqiudwhuqlw|/ prvw
ri wkh phpehuv zhuh duwlvdqv1 W|slfdoo|/ hdfk frqiudwhuqlw| dwwudfwhg duwlvdqv iurp wkh vdph
surihvvlrq/ zklfk riwhq ohg wr wkh irupdwlrq ri d jxlog olqnhg wr wkh frqiudwhuqlw| +Jdvsdulql/
4<;:,1 Iru h{dpsoh/ lq Yhqlfh wkh jxlog ri lurqprqjhuv zdv olqnhg zlwk wkh frqiudwhuqlw|
ri Vdq Oruhq}r/ vkhuphq zlwk wkdw ri Vdq Qlfror* dqg jrogvplwkv zlwk wkdw ri Vdq Pdwwlr
+Pdfnhqqh|/ 4<<7,148
Wkh cLvwlwx}lrql Frusrudwlyh* gdwd vkrz wkdw urxjko| 63 shufhqw ri wkh jxlogv lq rxu
vdpsoh duh olqnhg wr d uholjlrxv frqiudwhuqlw|1 Wkhvh jxlogv duh vfdwwhuhg dfurvv wkh ydulrxv
flwlhv dqg fryhu d ydulhw| ri dfwlylwlhv1 Iru h{dpsoh/ wkh eduehuv* jxlog lq Yhurqd ghulyhv iurp d
frqiudwhuqlw|/ exw qrqh ri wkh eduehu jxlogv ri wkh rwkhu flwlhv lq wkh vdpsoh dsshdu wr kdyh uh0
oljlrxv olqndjhv1 Vlploduo|/ wkh eodfnvplwkv* jxlog ri Xglqh lv uhodwhg wr d frqiudwhuqlw| zkhuhdv
wkrvh ri Sdgryd/ Yhqh}ld dqg Ylfhq}d duh qrw1 Wkhuh lv vrph jhrjudsklfdo yduldwlrq lq wkh
uholjlrxv ruljlq ri jxlogv1 Pruh wkdq kdoi ri wkh jxlogv lq Yhqlfh duh olqnhg wr d frqiudwhuqlw|
zkhuhdv lq wkh rwkhu flwlhv wkh sursruwlrq lv w|slfdoo| ehorz 53 shufhqw1 Rqfh zh frqwuro iru
flw| hhfwv/ zh gr qrw qg dq| vljqlfdqw fruuhodwlrq ehwzhhq wkh uholjlrxv ruljlq ri wkh jxlog
dqg rwkhu revhuydeoh jxlog fkdudfwhulvwlfv vxfk dv lwv djh ru wkh suhvhqfh ri dq dssuhqwlfhvkls
v|vwhp1 Wdeoh D6 lq wkh dsshqgl{ grfxphqwv vxfk orz fruuhodwlrqv zlwk d vhulhv ri uhjuhvvlrqv
zlwk uholjlrxv olqnv dv ghshqghqw yduldeoh1 Wklv vxjjhvwv wkdw wkh uholjlrxv ruljlq ri wkh jxlog lv
olnho| wr eh gulyhq e| lglrv|qfudwlf uhdvrqv/ uhodwhg wr wkh orfdo vxffhvv ri wkh djhoodqw pryh0
phqw lq wkh 46wk fhqwxu|/ dqg wkxv xqolnho| wr eh fruuhodwhg zlwk vkrfnv dhfwlqj sdwhqwlqj
wuhqgv wzr fhqwxulhv lq wkh ixwxuh1 Dw wkh vdph wlph/ ehfdxvh phpehuv ri uholjlrxv lqvwlwx0
wlrqv zhuh jryhuqhg e| d suhflvh vhw ri uxoh/ zklfk zdv jhqhudoo| uhfrughg lq d errn fdoohg
cPdulhjrod*/ lw lv uhdvrqdeoh wr h{shfw jxlogv zlwk uholjlrxv ruljlq wr dovr kdyh vwurqjhu lqwhuqdo
uhjxodwlrqv1 Pdfnhqqh| +4<<7, h{sodlqv krz jxlog vwdwxwhv riwhq zhuh lqvsluhg e| uxohv ri wkh
uhodwhg frqiudwhuqlwlhv1
47
Rxu gdwd vkrz wkdw derxw ;3 shufhqw ri wkh jxlogv ruljlqdwhg lq wkh odwh 47wk dqg 48wk fhqwxu|1
48
Wkhvh olqnv jhqhudwhg reoljdwlrqv iurp erwk vlghv1 Iru h{dpsoh/ jxlogv zhuh uhtxluhg wr pdnh qdqfldo
frqwulexwlrq wr wkh frqiudwhuqlw|/ exw zhuh dovr doorz wr xvh wkh frqiudwhuqlw| yhqxhv dv phhwlqj sodfhv1
53
Lq Wdeoh 8 zh h{sorlw wkh olqndjhv ehwzhhq jxlogv dqg frqiudwhuqlwlhv dv lqvwuxphqwdo
yduldeoh1 Froxpq 4 uhsruwv wkh uvw vwdjh uhjuhvvlrq/ zklfk lqglfdwhv d vwurqj srvlwlyh fruuh0
odwlrq ehwzhhq wkh uholjlrxv ruljlq ri wkh jxlog dqg wkh vwuhqjwk ri lwv lqwhuqdo uxohv1 Froxpqv
5 dqg 6 frqwudvw wkh ROV hvwlpdwhv dqg wkh 5VOV hvwlpdwhv ri vlplodu olqhdu uhjuhvvlrq prg0
hov1 Erwk vshflfdwlrqv frqup wkh vwurqj qhjdwlyh uhodwlrqvkls ehwzhhq sdwhqwlqj dqg jxlog*v
lqwhuqdo uxohv1 Wkh hvwlpdwhv ri wkh LY uhjuhvvlrq duh odujhu lq pdjqlwxgh exw qrw vwdwlvwlfdoo|
glhuhqw iurp wkrvh lq wkh ROV prgho1 Wkh odujhu pdjqlwxgh ri wkh frh!flhqw lv frqvlvwhqw
zlwk phdvxuhphqw huuru lq vwdwxwru| vwuhqjwk eldvlqj wkh hvwlpdwhv wrzdug }hur/ dv glvfxvvhg
deryh149
Iroorzlqj Jdodvvr hw do +5346, zh dovr lqvwuxphqwhg wkh cvwurqj lqwhuqdo uhjxodwlrq*
gxpp| zlwk wkh suhglfwhg suredelolw| ri d vwurqj vwdwxwh rewdlqhg iurp d surelw prgho1 Zkhq
wkh hqgrjhqrxv uhjuhvvru lv d gxpp|/ wklv hvwlpdwru lv dv|pswrwlfdoo| h!flhqw lq wkh fodvv ri
hvwlpdwruv zkhuh lqvwuxphqwv duh d ixqfwlrq ri wkh uholjlrxv ruljlq ri wkh jxlog dqg rwkhu frydul0
dwhv +Zrroguljh/ 5335,1 Wkh 5VOV hvwlpdwh zlwk wklv dowhuqdwlyh prgho lv hvvhqwldoo| lghqwlfdo
lq pdjqlwxgh dqg vljqlfdqfh ohyho dv wkh rqh suhvhqwhg lq froxpq 6 ri Wdeoh 81
9
Frqfoxvlrqv
Wkh Yhqhwldq dfw ri 47:7 zklfk uhjxodwhg wkh sdwhqw judqwlqj surfhvv surylghv d xqltxh rs0
sruwxqlw| wr vwxg| wkh glxvlrq ri d qhz hfrqrplf lqvwlwxwlrq1 Prwlydwhg e| d wkhruhwlfdo
prgho zklfk looxvwudwhv wkh uroh ri jxlog vwdwxwhv rq wkh surshqvlw| wr uho| rq sdwhqwv/ rxu
sdshu grfxphqwv d vwurqj qhjdwlyh dvvrfldwlrq ehwzhhq wkh qxpehu ri sdwhqwv judqwhg lq wkh
whfkqrorj| vhfwru ri d jxlog dqg wkh suhvhqfh ri vwdwxwru| surylvlrqv olplwlqj hqwu| dqg sulfh
frpshwlwlrq1 Zh dovr vkrz wkdw sdwhqwlqj lv pruh iuhtxhqw lq flwlhv zklfk duh jhrjudsklfdoo|
glvwdqw iurp Yhqlfh dqg lq flwlhv zlwk ohvv srolwlfdo frqqhfwlrq/ zklfk zh phdvxuh h{sorlwlqj d
xqltxh gdwdedvh zlwk orfdwlrq ri qreoh idplolhv dqg wkhlu pduuldjhv zlwk phpehuv ri wkh Judqg
Frxqflo1
Ryhudoo/ rxu qglqjv lqglfdwh wkdw wkh glxvlrq ri qhz hfrqrplf lqvwlwxwlrqv pd| eh
vwurqjo| dhfwhg e| ihdwxuhv ri wkh orfdo hfrqrplf dqg srolwlfdo hqylurqphqw1 Wklv kdv srwhqwldo
lpsolfdwlrqv iru wkh ghvljq ri lqqrydwlrq srolflhv/ ehfdxvh lw vxjjhvwv wkdw wkh vxffhvv ri d srolf|
pd| ydu| vxevwdqwldoo| dfurvv orfdwlrqv dqg lqgxvwulhv/ hyhq zlwklq d uhjlrq1 Rxu hvwlpdwhv
49
Iroorzlqj Dqjulvw dqg Slvfknh +533<,/ zh h{sorlw wkh uvw vwdjh hvwlpdwhv wr frpsxwh wkh sursruwlrq ri wkh
wuhdwhg zkr duh frpsolhuv zklfk lv 31551 Wklv lqglfdwhv wkdw rxu hvwlpdwhv duh qrw vshflf wr d vpdoo frpsoldqw
vxesrsxodwlrq1
54
duh dovr lq olqh zlwk wkh pruh uhfhqw lqqrydwlrq olwhudwxuh zklfk kdv grfxphqwhg vxevwdqwldo
yduldwlrq lq wkh udwh ri sdwhqwlqj dfurvv lqgxvwulhv dqg lq wkh shufhlyhg hhfwlyhqhvv ri sdwhqwv
dfurvv upv +Ohylq hw do1/ 4<;:> Frkhq/ Qhovrq/ dqg Zdovk/ 5333,1 Rxu gdwd vkrz wkdw hyhq lq
wkh yhu| uvw sdwhqw v|vwhp wkh sulydwh hfrqrplf ydoxh surylghg e| lqwhoohfwxdo surshuw| uljkwv
dsshduhg kljko| khwhurjhqhrxv1 Ilqdoo|/ rxu dqdo|vlv xqghuvfruhv wkh lpsruwdqfh ri frqvlghulqj
wkh srwhqwldo vxevwlwxwlrq ehwzhhq qhz lqvwlwxwlrqv dqg h{lvwlqj dowhuqdwlyhv1
55
Uhihuhqfhv
^4` Dfhprjox/ Gdurq/ dqg Xixn Dnfljlw +5345,/ Lqwhoohfwxdo surshuw| uljkwv srolf|/ frpshwl0
wlrq dqg lqqrydwlrq/ Mrxuqdo ri wkh Hxurshdq Hfrqrplf Dvvrfldwlrq 43= 40751
^5` Dfhprjox/ Gdurq/ dqg Vlprq Mrkqvrq +5338, %Xqexqgolqj Lqvwlwxwlrqv/% Mrxuqdo ri Sr0
olwlfdo Hfrqrp| 446= <7<0<<8
^6` Dfhprjox/ Gdurq/ Vlprq Mrkqvrq/ dqg Mdphv Urelqvrq +5338, %Wkh ulvh ri Hxursh= Dw0
odqwlf wudgh/ lqvwlwxwlrqdo fkdqjh/ dqg hfrqrplf jurzwk/% Dphulfdq Hfrqrplf Uhylhz <8=
87908:<
^7` Djklrq/ Sklolssh/ Qlfn Eorrp/ Ulfkdug Eoxqghoo/ Udfkho Jul!wk/ dqg Shwhu Krzlww +5338,
%Frpshwlwlrq dqg Lqqrydwlrq= Dq Lqyhuwhg0X Uhodwlrqvkls1% Wkh Txduwhuo| Mrxuqdo ri
Hfrqrplfv 453= :340:5;1
^8` Dqjulvw/ Mrvkxd Gdylg dqg Mùuq0Vwhhq Slvfknh +533<, Prvwo| kdupohvv hfrqrphwulfv= dq
hpslulflvw*v frpsdqlrq/ Sulqfhwrq xqlyhuvlw| suhvv/ Sulqfhwrq
^9` Ehoidqwl/ Fduor1 %Jxlogv/ sdwhqwv/ dqg wkh flufxodwlrq ri whfkqlfdo nqrzohgjh= Qruwkhuq
Lwdo| gxulqj wkh hduo| prghuq djh1% Whfkqrorj| dqg fxowxuh 7816 +5337,= 89<08;<1
^:` Ehuyhjolhul Urehuwr +4<<8,/ Lqyhqwrul Vwudqlhul d Yhqh}ld +47:704:<:,1 Lpsruwd}lrqh gl
whfqrorjld h flufrod}lrqh gl whfqlfl duwljldql lqyhqwrul/ lq Phprulh ghoo*Lvwlwxwr Yhqhwr gl
Vflhq}h/ Ohwwhuh hg Duwl gl Yhqh}ld/ Yhqh}ld1
^;` Ehuyhjolhul Urehuwr +4<<<,/ Oh ylh gl Yhqh}ld1 Fdqdol odjxqdul h ull d Yhqh}ld= Lqyhqwrul/
euhyhwwl/ whfqrorjld h ohjlvod}lrqh qhl vhfrol [LLL0[YLLL/ Flhuuh/ Yhurqd
^<` Eruhool/ Jlrujlr +4<;3, Vwdwr Hfrqrpld h Vrflhwd* qhood Uhsxeeolfd Yhqhwd wud c733 h c:33/
Oleuhuld Xqlyhuvlwduld Hglwulfh1
^43` Eulgjpdq/ Ehqmdplq +5348, Frpshwlwlrq/ zrun uxohv dqg surgxfwlylw|/ Mrxuqdo ri Hfr0
qrplf G|qdplfv dqg Frqwuro +5348,= 469047<
^44` Fdqldwr/ Jlrydqql +4<<9, %O*Duvhqdoh= pdhvwudq}h h rujdql}}d}lrqh gho odyrur1% Vwruld gl
Yhqh}ld= gdooh ruljlql dood fdgxwd ghood Vhuhqlvvlpd/ hg1 D1 Whqhqwl dqg X1 Wxffl1 Urph=
Lvwlwxwr ghood hqflforshgld lwdoldqd +4<<9,1
56
^45` Frkhq/ Zhvoh|/ Ulfkdug U1 Qhovrq/ dqg Mrkq S1 Zdovk +5333,/ %Surwhfwlqj wkhlu lqwhoohfwxdo
dvvhwv= Dssursuldelolw| frqglwlrqv dqg zk| XV pdqxidfwxulqj upv sdwhqw +ru qrw,/%
QEHU zrunlqj sdshu :885
^46` Frkhq/ Zhvoh| +5343,/ %Iliw| |hduv ri hpslulfdo vwxglhv ri lqqrydwlyh dfwlylw| dqg shuiru0
pdqfh1% Lq E1 K1 Kdoo dqg Q1 Urvhqehuj +Hgv1,/ Kdqgerrn ri Wkh Hfrqrplfv ri Lqqrydwlrq/
Yro1 4/ ss1 45< 5461 Qruwk0Kroodqg1
^47` Frplq Glhjr D1/ Plnkdlo Gplwulhy/ dqg Hvwhedq Urvvl0Kdqvehuj +5345, %Wkh Vsdwldo
Glxvlrq ri Whfkqrorj|1% QEHU zrunlqj sdshu4;867
^48` Frvwdqwlql/ Pdvvlpr +4<;:,/ O*doehur ghood olehuwã hfrqrplfd= lo surfhvvr gl vflrjolphqwr
ghooh frusrud}lrql yhqh}ldqh/ Duvhqdoh/ Yhqh}ld1
^49` Gdylg gh od Furl{/ Pdwwkldv Grhsnh/ Mrho Prn|u +5349,/ Fodqv/ Jxlogv/ dqg Pdunhwv=
Dssuhqwlfhvkls Lqvwlwxwlrqv dqg Jurzwk lq wkh Suh0Lqgxvwuldo Hfrqrp|/ QEHU Zrunlqj
Sdshu Qr1 55464
^4:` Gdydq}r Srol/ Gruhwwd +4<;7, L phvwlhul ghood Prgd d Yhqh}ld qhl vhf1 [LLL0[YLLL Hgl0
}lrql gho Jd}}dwwlqr
^4;` Ghpr/ Hgrdugr +5346, Lqgxvwu| dqg surgxfwlrq lq wkh yhqhwldq whuudihupd/ D Frpsdqlrq
wr Yhqhwldq Klvwru|/ 473304:<:1 Euloo/ 53461
^4<` Gl Vwhidqr/ Jlrydqql/ 5344/ Hflfroshgld Vwrulfd gl Yhqh}ld/ Vxshuqryd/ Yhqh}ld
^53` Gx|/ Mrkq I1 %Lqyhqwlqj Lqyhqwlrq= D Fdvh Vwxg| ri Ohjdo Lqqrydwlrq1%Wh{dv Odz Uhylhz
;914 +533:,1
^54` Gxuvwhohu/ Hulf1 D Frpsdqlrq wr Yhqhwldq Klvwru|/ 473304:<:1 Euloo/ 53461
^55` Hsvwhlq/ Vwhskdq +5337, Surshuw| uljkwv wr whfkqlfdo nqrzohgjh lq suhprghuq Hxursh/
463304;33/ Dphulfdq Hfrqrplf Uhylhz <7= 6;506;:
^56` Jdodvvr/ Doehuwr/ Pdun Vfkdqnhupdq/ dqg Fduorv M1 Vhuudqr +5346, Wudglqj dqg hqiruflqj
sdwhqw uljkwv/ UDQG Mrxuqdo ri Hfrqrplfv 77= 5:80645
^57` Jdvsdulql Jlxvhsslqd +4<;:, Lo Prylphqwr ghooh Frqiudwhuqlwh qhoo*Duhd Yhqhwd/ Sxeol0
fdwlrqv gh o*Ìfroh iudqêdlvh gh Urph <:= 69406<7
57
^58` Jodhvhu/ Hgzdug O1/ Udidho Od Sruwd/ Ioruhqflr Orsh}0gh0Vlodqhv/ dqg Dqguhl Vkohlihu/
+5337, %Gr lqvwlwxwlrqv fdxvh jurzwkB% Mrxuqdo ri Hfrqrplf Jurzwk <= 5:406361
^59` Jroghq/ Mrkq P1 +5346, %Sdwhqw Sulydwhhuv= Sulydwh Hqirufhphqw*v Klvwrulfdo Vxuylyruv1%
Kduydug Mrxuqdo ri Odz dqg Whfkqrorj| 59= 8781
^5:` Judqgl/ Fdvlplud +4<<3, Lppljud}lrqh gl txdolwã qhood Yhqh}ld gho Vhlfhqwr= lo fdvr
ghoo*Duvhqdoh/ Eroohwwlqr gl Ghprjudd Vwrulfd 45= ;80<9
^5;` Kdoo/ Eurqz|q dqg Glhwpdu Kdukr +5337, %Srvw0judqw uhylhzv lq wkh XV sdwhqw v|vwhp
ghvljq fkrlfhv dqg h{shfwhg lpsdfw1% Ehunhoh| Whfkqrorj| Odz Mrxuqdo= <;<043481
^5<` Kdukr/ Glhwpdu dqg Pdunxv Uhlw}lj +5337, %Ghwhuplqdqwv ri rssrvlwlrq djdlqvw HSR
sdwhqw judqwvwkh fdvh ri elrwhfkqrorj| dqg skdupdfhxwlfdov1% Lqwhuqdwlrqdo mrxuqdo ri
lqgxvwuldo rujdql}dwlrq 55= 77607;31
^63` Nohlqhu/ Pruulv/ +5333, %Rffxsdwlrqdo olfhqvlqj/% Mrxuqdo ri Hfrqrplf Shuvshfwlyhv 47=
4;<0535
^64` Nqdswrq Plfkdho +5346,/ Wkh whuudihupd vwdwh/ lq Gxuvwhohu/ Hulf1 D Frpsdqlrq wr
Yhqhwldq Klvwru|/ 473304:<:1 Euloo/ 5346
^65` Odqh/ Iuhghulf Yhqlfh1 D Pdulwlph Uhsxeolf/ Mrkq Krsnlqv Xqlyhuvlw| Suhvv 4<:61
^66` Ohylq/ U1 F1/ Nohyrulfn/ D1 N1/ Qhovrq/ U1 U1/ Zlqwhu/ V1 J1/ Jloehuw/ U1/ ) Julolfkhv/ ]1
+4<;:, %Dssursuldwlqj wkh uhwxuqv iurp lqgxvwuldo uhvhdufk dqg ghyhorsphqw/% Eurrnlqjv
sdshuv rq hfrqrplf dfwlylw| :;60;64
^67` Pdfkoxs/ Iulw}/ dqg Hglwk Shqurvh +4<83, Wkh Sdwhqw Frqwuryhuv| lq wkh Qlqhwhhqwk
Fhqwxu|/ Mrxuqdo ri Hfrqrplf Klvwru| 43=405<1
^68` Pdodqlpd/ Sdror +4<<;,/ Lwdoldq Flwlhv 463304;331 D txdqwlwdwlyh dssurdfk/ Ulylvwd gl
vwruld hfrqrplfd 47/ <40459
^69` Pdqglfk/ Jlxolr +4<69,/ Oh sulydwlyh lqgxvwuldol yhqh}ldqh = 478304883/ Ulylvwd gho
Glulwwr Frpphufldoh 67/ 4340476
^6:` Pdqglfk/ Jlxolr1 %Yhqhwldq Sdwhqwv +478304883,1% M1 Sdw1 R1 Vrf*| 63 +4<7;,= 499
58
^6;` Pd|/ Fkulvwrskhu/ +5335, Wkh Yhqhwldq Prphqw= Qhz Whfkqrorjlhv/ ohjdo Lqqrydwlrq dqg
Wkh Lqvwlwxwlrqdo Ruljlqv ri Lqwhoohfwxdo surshuw|/ Surphwkhxv/ 53/5> 48<04::1
^6<` Pdfnhqqh| Ulfkdug +4<<7, Frqwlqxlw| dqg fkdqjh lq wkh vfxroh slffroh ri Yhqlfh/ f1 4583
0 f1 4933/ Uhlqdvvdqfh Vwxglhv ;= 6;;0736
^73` Phujhv/ Urehuw S1/ dqg Mrkq I1 Gx| +5346, Sdwhqw odz dqg srolf|= Fdvhv dqg pdwhuldov
^74` Prlrol/ Dqjhor +5337,/ L Ulvxowdwl gl xq*Lqgdjlqh vxooh Frusrud}lrql qhooh Flwwã Lwdoldqh
lq Hwã Prghuqd/ lq Gdood Frusrud}lrqh do Pxwxr Vrffruvr1 Rujdql}}d}lrqh h Wxwhod gho
Odyrur wud [YL h [[ Vhfror/ Sdrod Pdvvd h Dqjhor Prlrol hglwrul1 Iudqfr Dqjhol Hgl}lrql/
Plodqr
^75` Proã/ Oxfd +5333, Wkh vlon lqgxvwu| ri Uhqdlvvdqfh Yhqlfh/ MKX Suhvv
^76` Prqwlfror/ Jlrydqql +4;<5, O*X!flr ghood jlxvwl}ld yhffkld d Yhqh}ld gdooh ruljlql vlqr do
46631 Yro1 451 D vshvh ghood Vrflhwã/ 4;<51
^77` Prqwlfror/ Jlrydqql +4;<9,/ L Fdslwrodul ghooh duwl yhqh}ldqh/ Iru}dql HF wlsrjud gho
vhqdwr/ Urpd1
^78` Prvhu/ Shwud +5338, Krz Gr Sdwhqw Odzv Lq xhqfh LqqrydwlrqB Hylghqfh iurp Qlqh0
whhqwk Fhqwxu| Zruog*v Idluv1 Dphulfdq Hfrqrplf Uhylhz <7=454704569
^79` Prvhu/ Shwud +5345, Lqqrydwlrq zlwkrxw Sdwhqwv Hylghqfh iurp Zruog*v Idluv Mrxuqdo
ri Odz dqg Hfrqrplfv 88= 760:7
^7:` Qruwk/ Grxjodvv +4<;4, Vwuxfwxuh dqg fkdqjh lq hfrqrplf klvwru|1 Qruwrq/ Qhz \run1
^7;` Shuvlfr/ Qlfrod +5348, %Wkh srolwlfdo hfrqrp| ri rffxsdwlrqdo olfhqvlqj dvvrfldwlrqv/% Mrxu0
qdo ri Odz/ Hfrqrplfv/ dqg Rujdql}dwlrq 64= 5460574
^7<` Sh}}ror/ Oxfldqr +5346, %Wkh yhqhwldq hfrqrp|% lq Gxuvwhohu/ Hulf1 D Frpsdqlrq wr
Yhqhwldq Klvwru|/ 473304:<:1 Euloo1
^83` Vfkurhghu Iudq} +4;63,/ Uhshuwrulr jhqhdorjlfr ghooh idpljolh frqihupdwh qrelol h ghl wlwr0
odwl qrelol hvlvwhqwl qhooh Surylqflh Yhqhwh/ Yro1 4 dqg 5/ Iruql/ Erorjqd
^84` Vkdz/ Mdphv +5335, %Uhwdlo/ Prqrsro|/ dqg Sulylohjh= wkh Glvvroxwlrq ri wkh Ilvkprqjhuv*
Jxlog ri Yhqlfh/ 48<<1% Mrxuqdo ri Hduo| Prghuq Klvwru| 917 +5335,= 6<9075:1
59
^85` Vlfkhopdq/ Whg dqg Vhdq R*Frqqru +5345,/ %Sdwhqwv dv Surprwhuv ri Frpshwlwlrq= Wkh
Jxlog Ruljlqv ri Sdwhqw Odz lq wkh Yhqhwldq Uhsxeolf%/ Vdq Glhjr Odz Uhylhz 7<= 459:0;5
^86` Wdehoolql/ Jxlgr +5343, %Fxowxuh dqg lqvwlwxwlrqv= hfrqrplf ghyhorsphqw lq wkh uhjlrqv
ri Hxursh/% Mrxuqdo ri wkh Hxurshdq Hfrqrplf Dvvrfldwlrq ;= 9::0:49
^87` Wulyhoodwr/ Iudqfhvfd +533;, Jxlogv/ Whfkqrorj|/ dqg Hfrqrplf Fkdqjh lq Hduo| Prghuq
Yhqlfh/ lq Jxlogv/ Lqqrydwlrq dqg wkh Hxurshdq Hfrqrp|/ 473304;33/ hgv1 V1U1 Hsvwhlq
dqg Pdduwhq Sudn +Fdpeulgjh= Fdpeulgjh Xqlyhuvlw| Suhvv/ 533;,/ ss1 4<<05641
^88` Sxjd Glhjr dqg Gdq Wuh hu +5347,/ Lqwhuqdwlrqdo Wudgh dqg Lqvwlwxwlrqdo Fkdqjh= Ph0
glhydo Yhqlfh*v Uhvsrqvh wr Joredol}dwlrq/ Txduwhuo| Mrxuqdo ri Hfrqrplfv 45<= :860;54
^89` Udlqhv Grulw +5337,/ Frrswd}lrqh/ djjuhjd}lrqh h suhvhq}d do Pdjjlru Frqvljolr= oh fdvdwh
gho sdwul}ldwr yhqh}ldqr/ 45<:04:<:/% Vwruld gl Yhqh}ld 4/4097
^8:` Uhqglqd/ Fodxglr +4<;7, L grjl/ Qhzwrq Frpswrq Hglwrul/ Urpd
^8;` ]djjld/ Vwhidqr1 %Idu od flwwã=
Lo uxror ghl Suryyhglwrul gl Frpxq qhoo*hyrox}lrqh
ghoo*dpelhqwh xuedqr gl yhqh}ld1 Vwudgh/ srqwl/ sr}}l/ fdvh1% Pìodqjhv gh o*Hfroh iudqêdlvh
gh Urph1 Lwdolh hw Pìglwhuudqìh 44915 +5337,1
5:
Dsshqgl{= H{whqvlrqv ri wkh wkhruhwlfdo prgho
Jhqhudol}hg lpsdfw ri jxlog vwdwxwhv
Lq wklv Dsshqgl{ zh h{whqg rxu edvholqh prgho jhqhudol}lqj wkh lpsdfw wkdw jxlog vwdwxwhv kdyh
rq uhqw vkdulqj/ +,/ dqg hqwu|/ +,= Pruh vshflfdoo| zh frqvlghu ixqfwlrqv +, A 3 dqg
+, ? 3 zlwk +3, @ +4, @ 3 dqg +4, @ +3, @ 4=
Zh vwduw dqdo|vlqj wkh ghflvlrq wr sdwhqw dqg rssrvh d sdwhqw lq wkh fdvh lq zklfk d
jxlog phpehu lv wkh lqqrydwru1 Sdwhqwlqj lv pruh surwdeoh wkdq qrw sdwhqwlqj rqo| li
.
+, +,+ . ,
5+,+ . ,
.
fA
5
5
5
ru
h @ 5 +f +4 +,,, =
A
5 +,
h A 3 rqo| li +, lv odujh hqrxjk1 Pruhryhu
Qrwlfh wkdw h
g{
g
A 3 zklfk frpelqhg zlwk
rxu dvvxpswlrq wkdw +, lpsolhv wkdw/ dv wkh vwuhqjwk ri wkh lqwhuqdo vwdwxwh lqfuhdvhv/ jxlog
phpehuv sdwhqw rqo| wkhlu pruh ydoxdeoh lqqrydwlrqv dqg wkh surshqvlw| wr sdwhqw ghfuhdvhv
lq = Frqvlghu qrz wkh lqfhqwlyhv ri rqh jxlog phpehu wr rssrvh wkh sdwhqw e| wkh rwkhu jxlog
phpehu1 Rssrvlwlrq lv surwdeoh li
+, +,+ . ,
5+,+ . ,
A
.
5
5
5
zklfk lv vdwlvhg li
Qrwlfh wkdw
e
g{
g
e @
A
5
=
+,
? 3 zklfk frpelqhg zlwk +, lpsolhv wkdw/ dv wkh vwuhqjwk ri wkh
lqwhuqdo vwdwxwh lqfuhdvhv/ jxlog phpehuv eorfn sdwhqwv ri rwkhu jxlog phpehuv pruh riwhq1
Wklv lpsolhv wkdw rxu uhvxowv rq sdwhqwlqj e| jxlog phpehuv duh urexvw wr dvvxplqj d pruh
jhqhudo uhodwlrqvkls ehwzhhq uhqw0vkdulqj dqg 1
Frqvlgh qrz wkh fdvh ri dq h{whuqdo lqqrydwru1 Sdwhqwlqj lv pruh surwdeoh wkdq hqwu|
zlwkrxw sdwhqw li
. +, .
+,+ . ,
5+,+ . ,
f A +,
6
6
wkdw rffxuv li
5;
hH @
A
6f 6 . 5+, . 5+,+,
+, 5+,+, . 6
h H +3, @ +6f 6, @6 dqg
Qrwlfh wkdw ehfdxvh +3, @ +4, @ 3 dqg +4, @ +3, @ 4 h H +4, @ +6f , @7 zklfk duh erwk qhjdwlyh ehfdxvh A 6f= Pruhryhu/ zh kdyh wkdw
j
g
H
g
dqg d frqglwlrq wr kdyh
j
g{
H
g
6 f . 5+,f
+,
++, 5+,+, . 6,2
f . +,
+,
.9+,
++, 5+,+, . 6,2
@ 6
3 lv
+,
5++,+f . +,,,
6 f . 5+,f
+,
qrwlfh wkdw wkh uljkw kdqg vlgh lv erxqghg e| +5f . 5,@+6 f, zklfk lq wxuq lv erxqghg e| 4
j
H
ehfdxvh A 6f= Wklv lpsolhv wkdw d vx!flhqw frqglwlrq wr kdyh g{
g 3 lv wkdw m +,m +, /
l1h1 fkdqjhv lq vwdwxwh kdyh juhdwhu lpsdfw rq uhqw vkdulqj wkdq rq hqwu|1
Ilqdoo|/ iru jxlog phpehuv rssrvlqj wkh sdwhqw lv pruh surwdeoh wkdq dffrpprgdwlqj
li
5+,
+ . ,
+,+ . ,
A +, .
5
5
6
ru
g
A
H +, @
6
5+,
+,
9
zklfk lv ghfuhdvlqj lq zklfk frpelqhg zlwk rxu dvvxpswlrq wkdw +, A 3 lpsolhv wkdw wkh
olnholkrrg ri rssrvlwlrq lqfuhdvhv lq 1
Jhqhudol}hg olfhqvlqj qhjrwldwlrqv
Lq wkh edvholqh vhwwlqj/ zh dvvxph wkdw wkh lqqrydwlqj up kdv wkh ixoo edujdlqlqj srzhu gxulqj
wkh olfhqvlqj qhjrwldwlrqv dqg wkdw lw dssursuldwhv wkh zkroh vxusoxv ri wkh lqqrydwlrq +zkloh wkh
rwkhu jxlog phpehuv rewdlq wkh vwdwxv0txr surwv @5,= Lq wklv Dsshqgl{/ zh jhqhudol}h wkh
dqdo|vlv dvvxplqj wkdw wkh vxusoxv lv vkduhg dffruglqj wr sdudphwhu 5 ^3> 4`= Pruh vshflfdoo|/
gxulqj wkh shulrg ri ydolglw| ri wkh sdwhqw/ wkh lqqrydwlqj up rewdlqv lwv vwdwxvtxr surwv
soxv d vkduh ri wkh lqqrydwlrq vxusoxv/ . > wkh uhpdlqlqj +4, vkduh lv dssursuldwhg
5<
e| wkh rwkhu jxlog phpehu+v,1 Sdudphwhu uhsuhvhqwv wkh edujdlqlqj srzhu ri wkh lqyhqwru
gxulqj wkh olfhqvlqj qhjrwldwlrqv1 Qrwlfh wkdw zkhq @ 4 zh duh edfn wr wkh edvholqh vhwwlqj1
Ehorz/ zh vkrz wkdw wkh frpsdudwlyh vwdwlf uhvxowv wkdw zh vkrz iru wkh edvholqh vhwwlqj
vwloo krog wuxh lq wklv pruh jhqhudo iudphzrun surylghg wkdw lv odujh hqrxjk1 Frqvlghu uvw
wkh fdvh ri lqqrydwlrq e| d jxlog phpehu1 E| sdwhqwlqj/ wkh lqqrydwru rewdlqv
+ . ,
. + . , .
f=
5
5
Lq wkh uvw shulrg/ wkh up rewdlqv wkh vwdwxv0txr surwv/ @5> soxv wkh vkduh ri wkh
lqqrydwlrq vxusoxv + . ,= Khqfh/ sdwhqwlqj lv pruh surwdeoh wkdq qrq0sdwhqwlqj rqo|
li
+ . ,
5+ . ,
. + . , .
fA
5
5
5
ru
@
A
5 +f +4 ,,
=
+5 ,
A 3 surylghg wkdw dqg duh odujh hqrxjk> pruhryhu/ g@g
Qrwlfh wkdw A 3> zklfk lpsolhv
wkdw wkh surshqvlw| wr sdwhqw uhgxfhv zlwk wkh vwuhqjwk ri wkh vwdwxwhv1
Frqvlghu qrz wkh lqfhqwlyhv wr rssrvh wkh sdwhqw e| d jxlog phpehu1 Rssrvlwlrq lv
surwdeoh li
+ . ,
5+ . ,
A
. +4 ,+ . , .
=
5
5
5
Zkhq fkrrvlqj qrw wr rssrvh wkh sdwhqw/ gxulqj wkh uvw shulrg/ wkh jxlog phpehu rewdlqv
@5 . +4 ,+ . ,> wkh vwdwxv0txr surwv soxv d vkduh +4 , ri wkh lqqrydwlrq vxusoxv1
Khqfh/ rssrvlwlrq lv rswlpdo li
a @ 5 . 5+4 ,+4 , =
A
+ 5+4 ,,
a uhyhdov wkdw g@g
a
D vlpsoh lqvshfwlrq ri ? 3 = wkh odujhu wkh pruh olnho| wkdw jxlog
phpehuv rssrvh sdwhqwv e| rwkhu jxlog phpehuv1 Ohw xv irfxv qrz rq wkh fdvh ri lqqrydwlrq
e| d qrq0jxlog phpehu1 Sdwhqwlqj lv surwdeoh li
+ . , .
5+ . ,
+ . ,
f A +4 ,
>
6
6
63
ru
6f 6+4 , . 5 2
A H @
=
+6 . 52 ,
H ? 3 li A
Qrwlfh wkdw fnE32
E3 >
khqfh/ wkh h{whuqdo lqqrydwru dozd|v suhihuv wr sdwhqw
surylghg wkdw lv odujh hqrxjk1
Ilqdoo|/ iru jxlog phpehuv rssrvlwlrq wr sdwhqwv judqwhg wr h{whuqdo lqqrydwruv lv suri0
lwdeoh zkhq
+4 ,
+ . ,
5+ . ,
A
.
+ . , .
5
5
5
6
Qrwlfh/ zkhq dffrpprgdwlqj wkh sdwhqw/ gxulqj wkh uvw shulrg/ hdfk jxlog phpehu rewdlqv
lwv vwdwxv0txr surwv soxv kdoi ri wkh vkduh ri wkh lqqrydwlrq vxusoxv jrlqj wr qrq0lqyhqwruv/
l1h1 kdoi ri +4 ,+ . ,= Wkhuhiruh/ d jxlog phpehu fkrrvhv wr rssrvh d sdwhqw e| dq
h{whuqdo li
2
6f
6+4
,
.
5
aH @
A
=
+6 . 52 ,
a H @g ? 3 zklfk lpsolhv wkdw wkh odujhu wkh pruh olnho| wkdw
Rqh fdq hdvlo| fkhfn wkdw g
jxlog phpehuv rssrvh sdwhqwv e| h{whuqdo lqqrydwruv
64
&ŝŐƵƌĞϭ͘sĞŶĞƚŝĂŶ^ƚĂƚĞŽƵŶĚĂƌLJ
(Source: Knapton, 2013)
dĂďůĞϭ͘^ƵŵŵĂƌLJƐƚĂƚŝƐƚŝĐƐ
KďƐ͘
DĞĂŶ
^ƚĚ͘Ğǀ͘
DŝŶ
DĂdž
WĂƚĞŶƚƐ
^ƚƌŽŶŐŝŶƚĞƌŶĂůƌĞŐƵůĂƚŝŽŶ
ŝƐƚĂŶĐĞƚŽsĞŶŝĐĞ;ŬŵͿ
ϯϰϬ
ϯϰϬ
ϯϰϬ
ϭ͘ϰϳ
Ϭ͘Ϯϭ
ϱϲ͘ϯϱ
ϱ͘ϭϬ
Ϭ͘ϰϬ
ϳϮ͘ϰϴ
Ϭ
Ϭ
Ϭ
ϰϮ
ϭ
ϰϳϱ
dƌĂĚĞŐƵŝůĚ
'ƵŝůĚŵĞŵďĞƌƐ
ϯϰϬ
ϭϲϵ
Ϭ͘ϰϲ
ϭϲϰ͘Ϭϲ
Ϭ͘ϰϵ
ϯϵϮ͘Ϯϳ
Ϭ
Ϯ
ϭ
ϯϯϵϬ
DĂŝŶŝƚŝĞƐ
sĞŶŝĐĞ
sĞƌŽŶĂ
WĂĚŽǀĂ
ƌĞƐĐŝĂ
dƌĞǀŝƐŽ
hĚŝŶĞ
KƚŚĞƌƐ
ϭϲϭ
ϱϰ
ϯϵ
ϯϭ
ϭϲ
ϭϯ
Ϯϲ
EKd^͗ hŶŝƚ ŽĨ ŽďƐĞƌǀĂƚŝŽŶ ŝƐ Ă ŐƵŝůĚ͘ WĂƚĞŶƚƐ ŝƐ ƚŚĞ ƚŽƚĂů ŶƵŵďĞƌ ŽĨ ƉĂƚĞŶƚƐ ŐƌĂŶƚĞĚ ĨƌŽŵ ϭϰϳϰ ƚŽ
ϭϱϱϬ ŝŶ ƚŚĞ ƚĞĐŚŶŽůŽŐLJ ƐĞĐƚŽƌ ŽĨ ƚŚĞ ŐƵŝůĚ͘ ^ƚƌŽŶŐ ŝŶƚĞƌŶĂů ƌĞŐƵůĂƚŝŽŶ сϭ ŝĨ ŐƵŝůĚ ŚĂƐ ŝŶƚĞƌŶĂů ƌƵůĞƐ
ǁŚŝĐŚ ƌĞƐƚƌŝĐƚ ĐŽŵƉĞƚŝƚŝŽŶ͕ ŐƌĂŶƚ ƉƌŝǀŝůĞŐĞƐ ƚŽ ƐŽŶƐ ŽĨ ŵĞŵďĞƌƐ͕ ĂŶĚ ƌĞƐƚƌŝĐƚ ƌŝŐŚƚƐ ŽĨ ĨŽƌĞŝŐŶ
ŵĞŵďĞƌƐ͘ dƌĂĚĞ ŐƵŝůĚ ŝƐ ĞƋƵĂů ƚŽ ŽŶĞ ŝĨ ƚŚĞ ŐƵŝůĚ ŝƐ ŶŽƚ ŝŶǀŽůǀĞĚ ŝŶ ŵĂŶƵĨĂĐƚƵƌŝŶŐ͘ 'ƵŝůĚ ŵĞŵďĞƌƐ
сŶƵŵďĞƌŽĨƌĞŐŝƐƚĞƌĞĚŵĞŵďĞƌƐĂƐƌĞƉŽƌƚĞĚŝŶƚŚĞΗ/ƐƚŝƚƵnjŝŽŶŝŽŽƉĞƌĂƚŝǀĞΗĚĂƚĂ͘
dĂďůĞϮ͘'ƵŝůĚŝŶƚĞƌŶĂůƌĞŐƵůĂƚŝŽŶĂŶĚƉĂƚĞŶƚŝŶŐ
ĞƉĞŶĚĞŶƚsĂƌŝĂďůĞ
^ƚƌŽŶŐŝŶƚĞƌŶĂůƌĞŐƵůĂƚŝŽŶ
;ϭͿ
;ϮͿ
;ϯͿ
;ϰͿ
WĂƚĞŶƚƐ
WĂƚĞŶƚƐ
WĂƚĞŶƚƐ
WĂƚĞŶƚƐ
ͲϬ͘ϳϱϬΎΎΎ
;Ϭ͘ϭϱϭͿ
ͲϬ͘ϵϴϭΎΎΎ
;Ϭ͘ϭϬϭͿ
Ͳϭ͘ϭϯϯΎΎΎ
;Ϭ͘ϰϯϵͿ
Ͳϭ͘ϳϭϳΎΎΎ
;Ϭ͘ϲϭϬͿ
ůŽŐ;ŝƐƚĂŶĐĞͿ
Ϭ͘ϮϮϱΎΎΎ
;Ϭ͘ϬϮϲͿ
ůŽŐ;'ƵŝůĚŵĞŵďĞƌƐͿ
Ϭ͘Ϯϱϲ
;Ϭ͘ϭϵϭͿ
dƌĂĚĞŐƵŝůĚ
Ͳϰ͘ϱϯϱΎΎΎ
;Ϭ͘ϳϭϬͿ
Ͳϰ͘ϯϱϳΎΎΎ
;Ϭ͘ϳϬϴͿ
Ͳϰ͘ϯϱϱΎΎΎ
;Ϭ͘ϴϰϴͿ
Ͳϱ͘ϮϲϴΎΎΎ
;ϭ͘ϬϰϮͿ
ŝƚLJĨĨĞĐƚƐ
EŽ
EŽ
zĞƐ
zĞƐ
KďƐĞƌǀĂƚŝŽŶƐ
ϯϰϬ
ϯϰϬ
ϯϰϬ
ϭϲϵ
EKd^͗ WŽŝƐƐŽŶ ĞƐƚŝŵĂƚŝŽŶ ǁŝƚŚ ƌŽďƵƐƚ ƐƚĂŶĚĂƌĚ ĞƌƌŽƌƐ͘ Ύ ƐŝŐŶŝĨŝĐĂŶƚ Ăƚ ϭϬ ƉĞƌĐĞŶƚ͕ ΎΎ ƐŝŐŶŝĨŝĐĂŶƚ Ăƚ ϱ
ƉĞƌĐĞŶƚ ĂŶĚ ΎΎΎ ƐŝŐŶŝĨŝĐĂŶƚ Ăƚ ϭ ƉĞƌĐĞŶƚ͘ ^ƚƌŽŶŐ ŝŶƚĞƌŶĂů ƌĞŐƵůĂƚŝŽŶ сϭ ŝĨ ŐƵŝůĚ ŚĂƐ ŝŶƚĞƌŶĂů ƌƵůĞƐ ǁŚŝĐŚ
ƌĞƐƚƌŝĐƚĐŽŵƉĞƚŝƚŝŽŶ͕ŐƌĂŶƚƉƌŝǀŝůĞŐĞƐƚŽƐŽŶƐŽĨŵĞŵďĞƌƐ͕ĂŶĚƌĞƐƚƌŝĐƚƌŝŐŚƚƐŽĨĨŽƌĞŝŐŶŵĞŵďĞƌƐ͘dƌĂĚĞŐƵŝůĚ
ŝƐ ĞƋƵĂů ƚŽ ŽŶĞ ŝĨ ƚŚĞ ŐƵŝůĚ ŝƐ ŶŽƚ ŝŶǀŽůǀĞĚ ŝŶ ŵĂŶƵĨĂĐƚƵƌŝŶŐ͘ ŝƐƚĂŶĐĞс ĚŝƐƚĂŶĐĞ ĨƌŽŵ sĞŶŝĐĞ ŝŶ <ŵ͘ 'ƵŝůĚ
ŵĞŵďĞƌƐсŶƵŵďĞƌŽĨƌĞŐŝƐƚĞƌĞĚŵĞŵďĞƌƐĂƐƌĞƉŽƌƚĞĚŝŶƚŚĞΗ/ƐƚŝƚƵnjŝŽŶŝŽŽƉĞƌĂƚŝǀĞΗĚĂƚĂ͘
dĂďůĞϯ͘/ŶǀĞŶƚŽƌƐΖŽƌŝŐŝŶĂŶĚĂůƚĞƌŶĂƚŝǀĞƉĂƚĞŶƚĚĂƚĂ
;ϭͿ
;ϮͿ
;ϯͿ
;ϰͿ
;ϱͿ
;ϲͿ
WĂƚĞŶƚƐ
>ŽĐĂů
WĂƚĞŶƚƐ
>ŽĐĂů
WĂƚĞŶƚƐ
&ŽƌĞŝŐŶĞƌƐ
WĂƚĞŶƚƐ
&ŽƌĞŝŐŶĞƌƐ
WĂƚĞŶƚƐ
DĂŶĚŝĐŚ
WĂƚĞŶƚƐ
DĂŶĚŝĐŚ
^ƚƌŽŶŐŝŶƚĞƌŶĂůƌĞŐƵůĂƚŝŽŶ
ͲϬ͘ϵϰϲΎΎΎ
;Ϭ͘ϬϵϱͿ
Ͳϭ͘ϬϵϴΎΎ
;Ϭ͘ϰϮϵͿ
ͲϬ͘ϬϮϵΎΎ
;Ϭ͘ϬϭϮͿ
ͲϬ͘ϬϯϰΎ
;Ϭ͘ϬϮϬͿ
Ͳϭ͘ϯϲϯΎΎΎ
;Ϭ͘ϯϭϯͿ
Ͳϭ͘ϮϲϲΎΎ
;Ϭ͘ϲϭϲͿ
ůŽŐ;ŝƐƚĂŶĐĞͿ
Ϭ͘ϮϭϵΎΎΎ
;Ϭ͘ϬϮϱͿ
ĞƉĞŶĚĞŶƚsĂƌŝĂďůĞ
Ϭ͘ϬϬϲΎΎΎ
;Ϭ͘ϬϬϭͿ
Ϭ͘ϭϳϬΎΎΎ
;Ϭ͘ϬϯϲͿ
ŝƚLJĨĨĞĐƚƐ
EŽ
zĞƐ
EŽ
zĞƐ
EŽ
zĞƐ
KďƐĞƌǀĂƚŝŽŶƐ
ϯϰϬ
ϯϰϬ
ϯϰϬ
ϯϰϬ
ϯϰϬ
ϯϰϬ
EKd^͗ WŽŝƐƐŽŶ ĞƐƚŝŵĂƚŝŽŶ ǁŝƚŚ ƌŽďƵƐƚ ƐƚĂŶĚĂƌĚ ĞƌƌŽƌƐ͘ Ύ ƐŝŐŶŝĨŝĐĂŶƚ Ăƚ ϭϬ ƉĞƌĐĞŶƚ͕ ΎΎ ƐŝŐŶŝĨŝĐĂŶƚ Ăƚ ϱ ƉĞƌĐĞŶƚ ĂŶĚ ΎΎΎ
ƐŝŐŶŝĨŝĐĂŶƚ Ăƚ ϭ ƉĞƌĐĞŶƚ͘ ůů ƌĞŐƌĞƐƐŝŽŶƐ ŝŶĐůƵĚĞ Ă ĚƵŵŵLJ ĨŽƌ dƌĂĚĞ ŐƵŝůĚƐ͘ ^ƚƌŽŶŐ ŝŶƚĞƌŶĂů ƌĞŐƵůĂƚŝŽŶ сϭ ŝĨ ŐƵŝůĚ ŚĂƐ ŝŶƚĞƌŶĂů
ƌƵůĞƐ ǁŚŝĐŚ ƌĞƐƚƌŝĐƚ ĐŽŵƉĞƚŝƚŝŽŶ͕ ŐƌĂŶƚ ƉƌŝǀŝůĞŐĞƐ ƚŽ ƐŽŶƐ ŽĨ ŵĞŵďĞƌƐ͕ ĂŶĚ ƌĞƐƚƌŝĐƚ ƌŝŐŚƚƐ ŽĨ ĨŽƌĞŝŐŶ ŵĞŵďĞƌƐ͘ ŝƐƚĂŶĐĞс
ĚŝƐƚĂŶĐĞ ĨƌŽŵ sĞŶŝĐĞ ŝŶ <ŵ͘ >ŽĐĂů ƉĂƚĞŶƚƐ с ƉĂƚĞŶƚƐ ŐƌĂŶƚĞĚ ƚŽ /ƚĂůŝĂŶ ŝŶǀĞŶƚŽƌƐ͘ &ŽƌĞŝŐŶ ƉĂƚĞŶƚƐ с ƉĂƚĞŶƚƐ ŐƌĂŶƚĞĚ ƚŽ ŶŽŶͲ
/ƚĂůŝĂŶ ŝŶǀĞŶƚŽƌƐ͘ ŽůƵŵŶƐ ϭͲϰ ĞdžƉůŽŝƚ ƉĂƚĞŶƚ ĚĂƚĂ ĨƌŽŵ ĞƌǀĞŐůŝĞƌŝ ;ϭϵϵϱ͕ ϭϵϵϵͿ ĐŽůƵŵŶƐ ϱͲϲ ĞdžƉůŽŝƚ ƉĂƚĞŶƚ ĚĂƚĂ ĨƌŽŵ
DĂŶĚŝĐŚ;ϭϵϯϲͿ͘
dĂďůĞϰ͘EŽďůĞĨĂŵŝůŝĞƐĂŶĚƉĂƚĞŶƚŝŶŐ
;ϭͿ
;ϮͿ
;ϯͿ
WĂƚĞŶƚƐ
WĂƚĞŶƚƐ
WĂƚĞŶƚƐ
^ƚƌŽŶŐŝŶƚĞƌŶĂůƌĞŐƵůĂƚŝŽŶ
Ͳϭ͘ϭϰϯΎΎΎ
;Ϭ͘ϭϮϬͿ
Ͳϭ͘ϮϬϯΎΎΎ
;Ϭ͘ϭϮϱͿ
Ͳϭ͘ϮϴϯΎΎΎ
;Ϭ͘ϭϯϬͿ
ůŽŐ;ŝƐƚĂŶĐĞͿ
Ϭ͘ϯϮϲΎΎΎ
;Ϭ͘ϬϮϵͿ
Ϭ͘ϯϰϬΎΎΎ
;Ϭ͘ϬϮϮͿ
Ϭ͘ϮϲϰΎΎ
;Ϭ͘ϭϭϴͿ
ůŽŐ;EŽďůĞ&ĂŵŝůŝĞƐͿ
Ϭ͘ϭϬϯΎΎΎ
;Ϭ͘ϬϮϳͿ
Ϭ͘ϰϭϵΎΎΎ
;Ϭ͘ϬϵϯͿ
Ϭ͘ϰϱϲΎΎΎ
;Ϭ͘ϬϵϴͿ
ůŽŐ;WŽƉƵůĂƚŝŽŶϭϱϬϬͿ
Ϭ͘ϭϲϳ
;Ϭ͘ϭϭϲͿ
Ϭ͘ϬϮϳ
;Ϭ͘ϬϳϮͿ
Ϭ͘ϬϴϬ
;Ϭ͘ϭϬϳͿ
Ͳϭ͘ϯϯϯΎΎΎ
Ͳϭ͘ϱϬϬΎΎΎ
;Ϭ͘ϯϱϭͿ
;Ϭ͘ϯϵϴͿ
ĞƉĞŶĚĞŶƚsĂƌŝĂďůĞ
WŽůŝƚŝĐĂůůLJŽŶŶĞĐƚĞĚ
&ĂŵŝůŝĞƐ
ŝƚLJĨĨĞĐƚƐ
ƌŽƉsĞŶŝĐĞ
EŽ
EŽ
EŽ
EŽ
EŽ
zĞƐ
KďƐĞƌǀĂƚŝŽŶƐ
ϯϯϰ
ϯϯϰ
ϭϳϯ
EKd^͗ WŽŝƐƐŽŶ ĞƐƚŝŵĂƚŝŽŶ ǁŝƚŚ ƌŽďƵƐƚ ƐƚĂŶĚĂƌĚ ĞƌƌŽƌƐ͘ Ύ ƐŝŐŶŝĨŝĐĂŶƚ Ăƚ ϭϬ
ƉĞƌĐĞŶƚ͕ ΎΎ ƐŝŐŶŝĨŝĐĂŶƚ Ăƚ ϱ ƉĞƌĐĞŶƚ ĂŶĚ ΎΎΎ ƐŝŐŶŝĨŝĐĂŶƚ Ăƚ ϭ ƉĞƌĐĞŶƚ͘ ůů
ƌĞŐƌĞƐƐŝŽŶƐ ŝŶĐůƵĚĞ Ă ĚƵŵŵLJ ĨŽƌ dƌĂĚĞ ŐƵŝůĚƐ͘ ^ƚƌŽŶŐ ŝŶƚĞƌŶĂů ƌĞŐƵůĂƚŝŽŶ
сϭ ŝĨ ŐƵŝůĚ ŚĂƐ ŝŶƚĞƌŶĂů ƌƵůĞƐ ǁŚŝĐŚ ƌĞƐƚƌŝĐƚ ĐŽŵƉĞƚŝƚŝŽŶ͕ ŐƌĂŶƚ ƉƌŝǀŝůĞŐĞƐ ƚŽ
ƐŽŶƐ ŽĨ ŵĞŵďĞƌƐ͕ ĂŶĚ ƌĞƐƚƌŝĐƚ ƌŝŐŚƚƐ ŽĨ ĨŽƌĞŝŐŶ ŵĞŵďĞƌƐ͘ ŝƐƚĂŶĐĞс
ĚŝƐƚĂŶĐĞ ĨƌŽŵ sĞŶŝĐĞ ŝŶ <ŵ͘ EŽďůĞ ĨĂŵŝůŝĞƐ с ŶƵŵďĞƌ ŽĨ ŶŽďůĞ ĨĂŵŝůŝĞƐ ŝŶ
ƚŚĞ ĐŝƚLJ ĂƐ ƌĞŐŝƐƚĞƌĞĚ ďLJ ^ĐŚƌŽĞĚĞƌ ;ϭϴϯϬͿ͘ WŽƉƵůĂƚŝŽŶс ŝŶŚĂďŝƚĂŶƚƐ ŝŶ ϭϱϬϬ
ĂƐ ĞƐƚŝŵĂƚĞĚ ďLJ DĂůĂŶŝŵĂ ;ϭϵϵϴͿ͘ WŽůŝƚŝĐĂůůLJ ĐŽŶŶĞĐƚĞĚ ĨĂŵŝůŝĞƐсϭ ŝĨ ƚŚĞƌĞ
ŝƐ Ăƚ ůĞĂƐƚ ŽŶĞ ĨĂŵŝůLJ ŝŶ ƚŚĞ ĐŝƚLJ ǁŚŝĐŚ ďĞůŽŶŐƐ ƚŽ ƚŚĞ 'ƌĞĂƚ ŽƵŶĐŝů Žƌ ŝƐ
ůŝŶŬĞĚƚŚƌŽƵŐŚŵĂƌƌŝĂŐĞƐƚŽĂĨĂŵŝůLJŝŶƚŚĞ'ƌĞĂƚŽƵŶĐŝů͘
dĂďůĞϱ͘ZĞůŝŐŝŽƵƐĐŽŶĨƌĂƚĞƌŶŝƚŝĞƐĂŶĚŐƵŝůĚŝŶƚĞƌŶĂůƐƚƌĞŶŐƚŚ
ĞƉĞŶĚĞŶƚsĂƌŝĂďůĞ
ƐƚŝŵĂƚŝŽŶ
ZĞůŝŐŝŽƵƐĐŽŶĨƌĂƚĞƌŶŝƚLJ
;ϭͿ
;ϮͿ
;ϯͿ
^ƚƌŽŶŐŐƵŝůĚ
K>^
WĂƚĞŶƚƐ
K>^
WĂƚĞŶƚƐ
Ϯ^>^
Ͳϭ͘ϵϱϴΎΎ
Ͳϰ͘ϭϴϯΎ
;Ϭ͘ϴϲϭͿ
;Ϯ͘ϳϮϬͿ
zĞƐ
ϯϰϬ
zĞƐ
ϯϰϬ
Ϭ͘ϭϱϬΎΎΎ
;Ϭ͘ϬϰϱͿ
^ƚƌŽŶŐŝŶƚĞƌŶĂůƌĞŐƵůĂƚŝŽŶ
;ŝŶƐƚƌƵŵĞŶƚĞĚͿ
ŝƚLJĨĨĞĐƚƐ
KďƐĞƌǀĂƚŝŽŶƐ
&ŝƌƐƚƐƚĂŐĞ&ͲƚĞƐƚ
zĞƐ
ϯϰϬ
ϳ͘ϴϱ
EKd^͗ K>^ ĞƐƚŝŵĂƚŝŽŶ ǁŝƚŚ ƌŽďƵƐƚ ƐƚĂŶĚĂƌĚ ĞƌƌŽƌƐ͘ Ύ ƐŝŐŶŝĨŝĐĂŶƚ Ăƚ ϭϬ ƉĞƌĐĞŶƚ͕ ΎΎ
ƐŝŐŶŝĨŝĐĂŶƚ Ăƚ ϱ ƉĞƌĐĞŶƚ ĂŶĚ ΎΎΎ ƐŝŐŶŝĨŝĐĂŶƚ Ăƚ ϭ ƉĞƌĐĞŶƚ͘ ůů ƌĞŐƌĞƐƐŝŽŶƐ ŝŶĐůƵĚĞ Ă ĚƵŵŵLJ
ĨŽƌ dƌĂĚĞ ŐƵŝůĚƐ͘ ^ƚƌŽŶŐ ŝŶƚĞƌŶĂů ƌĞŐƵůĂƚŝŽŶ сϭ ŝĨ ŐƵŝůĚ ŚĂƐ ŝŶƚĞƌŶĂů ƌƵůĞƐ ǁŚŝĐŚ ƌĞƐƚƌŝĐƚ
ĐŽŵƉĞƚŝƚŝŽŶ͕ ŐƌĂŶƚ ƉƌŝǀŝůĞŐĞƐ ƚŽ ƐŽŶƐ ŽĨ ŵĞŵďĞƌƐ͕ ĂŶĚ ƌĞƐƚƌŝĐƚ ƌŝŐŚƚƐ ŽĨ ĨŽƌĞŝŐŶ ŵĞŵďĞƌƐ͘
ZĞůŝŐŝŽƵƐĐŽŶĨƌĂƚĞƌŶŝƚLJсϭŝĨŐƵŝůĚŝƐůŝŶŬĞĚƚŽĂƌĞůŝŐŝŽƵƐŝŶƐƚŝƚƵƚŝŽŶ͘
dĂďůĞϭ͘WĂƚĞŶƚƐďLJƚĞĐŚŶŽůŽŐLJƐĞĐƚŽƌ
ϭϰϳϰͲϭϱϱϬ
DŝůůƐ
ĐĞƌĞĂůƐ
ŵĞƚĂůƐ
ƚĞdžƚŝůĞƐ
ǁŽŽĚƐĂǁƐ
ŵƵůƚŝƉůĞƵƐĂŐĞ
&ĂďƌŝĐƐ
WĂŝŶƚ
ƌĞĂĚĂŶĚĨŽŽĚ
WŽƚƚĞƌLJĂŶĚWŽƌĐĞůĂŝŶsĂƐĞƐ
ŐƌŝĐƵůƚƵƌĂůŵĂĐŚŝŶĞƐ
ƌĂŝŶĂŐĞ͕ŵƵĚƌĞŵŽǀĂů
,LJĚƌĂƵůŝĐƉƵŵƉƐ
'ƵŶƐ
ƌƐĞŶĂů
DŝŶŝŶŐ
WĞƌƉĞƚƵĂůDŽƚŝŽŶ
DŝƐĐĞůůĂŶĞŽƵƐ
ϴ
ϰ
ϭ
ϭ
ϰ
ϮϬ
ϭϭ
ϳ
ϯ
ϯ
ϯ
ϭϵ
dŽƚĂů
ϭϲϵ
^ŽƵƌĐĞ͗ĞƌǀĞŐůŝĞƌŝ;ϭϵϵϱͿ
ϰϮ
ϲ
ϵ
ϲ
ϮϮ
dĂďůĞϮ͘ZŽďƵƐƚŶĞƐƐ
ĞƉĞŶĚĞŶƚsĂƌŝĂďůĞ
^ƚƌŽŶŐŝŶƚĞƌŶĂůƌĞŐƵůĂƚŝŽŶ
;ϭͿ
;ϮͿ
WĂƚĞŶƚƐ
WĂƚĞŶƚƐ
Ͳϭ͘ϬϭϮΎΎΎ
;Ϭ͘ϭϬϭͿ
ͲϬ͘ϵϰϴΎΎ
;Ϭ͘ϰϯϭͿ
;ϯͿ
;ϰͿ
WĂƚĞŶƚƐ
WĂƚĞŶƚƐƵƉ
^ĞĐƚŽƌϭΘϮ
ƚŽϭϲϬϬ
ͲϬ͘ϵϰϬΎΎΎ
;Ϭ͘ϯϬϳͿ
WĂƚĞŶƚƐ
Ͳϭ͘ϯϬϳΎΎΎ
;Ϭ͘ϰϴϲͿ
Ϭ͘ϮϳϰΎΎΎ
;Ϭ͘ϬϳϰͿ
Ϭ͘Ϭϯϴ
;Ϭ͘ϰϳϭͿ
ůŽŐ;WŽƉƵůĂƚŝŽŶϭϰϬϬͿ
Ϭ͘ϭϴϴ
;Ϭ͘ϳϴϰͿ
ůŽŐ;WŽƉƵůĂƚŝŽŶϭϯϬϬͿ
ͲϬ͘ϬϳϮ
;Ϭ͘ϯϴϯͿ
ƉƉƌĞŶƚŝĐĞƐŚŝƉ
Ϭ͘ϭϮϬ
;Ϭ͘ϯϬϳͿ
ůŽŐ;ŐĞͿ
Ϭ͘Ϭϰϳ
;Ϭ͘ϭϲϰͿ
KďƐĞƌǀĂƚŝŽŶƐ
WĂƚĞŶƚƐ
Ϭ͘ϮϴϮ
;Ϭ͘ϯϵϰͿ
ůŽŐ;WŽƉƵůĂƚŝŽŶϭϱϬϬͿ
ŝƚLJĞĨĨĞĐƚƐ
/ŶĚƵƐƚƌLJĞĨĨĞĐƚƐ
ƌŽƉŐƵŝůĚƐǁŝƚŚĐŚĂŶŐĞŝŶ
ƐƚĂƚƵƚĞ
;ϲͿ
ͲϬ͘ϳϮϴΎΎ
;Ϭ͘ϯϭϴͿ
ĞƚĂŝůĞĚƐƚĂƚƵƚĞƉůĂĐĞďŽ
ůŽŐ;ŝƐƚĂŶĐĞͿ
;ϱͿ
EŽ
EŽ
zĞƐ
zĞƐ
zĞƐ
EŽ
zĞƐ
EŽ
zĞƐ
EŽ
zĞƐ
EŽ
EŽ
EŽ
EŽ
EŽ
EŽ
zĞƐ
ϯϰϬ
ϯϰϬ
ϯϰϬ
ϯϰϬ
ϯϰϬ
Ϯϳϱ
EKd^͗ WŽŝƐƐŽŶ ĞƐƚŝŵĂƚŝŽŶ ǁŝƚŚ ƌŽďƵƐƚ ƐƚĂŶĚĂƌĚ ĞƌƌŽƌƐ͘ Ύ ƐŝŐŶŝĨŝĐĂŶƚ Ăƚ ϭϬ ƉĞƌĐĞŶƚ͕ ΎΎ ƐŝŐŶŝĨŝĐĂŶƚ Ăƚ ϱ ƉĞƌĐĞŶƚ ĂŶĚ ΎΎΎ
ƐŝŐŶŝĨŝĐĂŶƚ Ăƚ ϭ ƉĞƌĐĞŶƚ͘ ZĞŐƌĞƐƐŝŽŶƐ ŝŶĐůƵĚĞ ĚƵŵŵLJ ĨŽƌ dƌĂĚĞ ŐƵŝůĚƐ͘ ^ƚƌŽŶŐ ŝŶƚĞƌŶĂů ƌĞŐƵůĂƚŝŽŶ сϭ ŝĨ ŐƵŝůĚ ŚĂƐ ŝŶƚĞƌŶĂů
ƌƵůĞƐ ǁŚŝĐŚ ƌĞƐƚƌŝĐƚ ĐŽŵƉĞƚŝƚŝŽŶ͕ ŐƌĂŶƚ ƉƌŝǀŝůĞŐĞƐ ƚŽ ƐŽŶƐ ŽĨ ŵĞŵďĞƌƐ͕ ĂŶĚ ƌĞƐƚƌŝĐƚ ƌŝŐŚƚƐ ŽĨ ĨŽƌĞŝŐŶ ŵĞŵďĞƌƐ͘ dƌĂĚĞ ŐƵŝůĚ
ŝƐ ĞƋƵĂů ƚŽ ŽŶĞ ŝĨ ƚŚĞ ŐƵŝůĚ ŝƐ ŶŽƚ ŝŶǀŽůǀĞĚ ŝŶ ŵĂŶƵĨĂĐƚƵƌŝŶŐ͘ ŝƐƚĂŶĐĞс ĚŝƐƚĂŶĐĞ ĨƌŽŵ sĞŶŝĐĞ ŝŶ <ŵ͘ WŽƉƵůĂƚŝŽŶ ĚĂƚĂ ĂƌĞ
ĨƌŽŵ DĂůĂŶŝŵĂ ;ϭϵϵϴͿ͘ ƉƉƌĞŶƚŝĐĞƐŚŝƉсϭ ŝĨ ƚŚĞ Η/ƐƚŝƚƵnjŝŽŶŝ ŽƌƉŽƌĂƚŝǀĞΗ ĚĂƚĂďĂƐĞ ĚŽĐƵŵĞŶƚƐ ĂŶ ĂƉƉƌĞŶƚŝĐĞƐŚŝƉ
ƌĞƋƵŝƌĞŵĞŶƚ͘ ŐĞс ĂŐĞ ŽĨ ƚŚĞ ŐƵŝůĚ ŝŶ ϭϱϬϬ͘ /ŶĚƵƐƚƌLJ ĞĨĨĞĐƚƐ ĂƌĞ ĚƵŵŵŝĞƐ ĨŽƌ ŐƵŝůĚƐ ŝŶ ĂŐƌŝĐŽůƚƵƌĞ͕ ƚĞdžƚŝůĞ ĂŶĚ
ĐŽŶƐƚƌƵĐƚŝŽŶ͘ ĞƚĂŝůĞĚ ƐƚĂƚƵƚĞ ƉůĂĐĞďŽсϭ ŝĨ ƚŚĞ ƐƚĂƚƵƚĞ ŝŶĐůƵĚĞƐ͗ ;ŝͿ Ă ůŝƐƚ ŽĨ ŵĂŶƵĨĂĐƚƵƌŝŶŐ ĂĐƚŝǀŝƚŝĞƐ ƉƌĞĐůƵĚĞĚ ƚŽ ǁŽŵĞŶ͕
;ŝŝͿ ƚŚĞ ŶĂŵĞ ŽĨ ƚŚĞ ŐƵŝůĚΖƐ ƉĂƚƌŽŶ ƐĂŝŶƚ ĂŶĚ ;ŝŝŝͿ Ă ĚĞƐĐƌŝƉƚŝŽŶ ŽĨ ƚŚĞ ŚŝĞƌĂƌĐŚŝĐĂů ƐƚƌƵĐƚƵƌĞ ŽĨ ƚŚĞ ŐƵŝůĚ͘ ŽůƵŵŶ ;ϲͿ ĚƌŽƉƐ
ŐƵŝůĚƐǁŝƚŚĐŚĂŶŐĞƐŝŶƐƚĂƚƵƚĞŝŶƚŚĞƉĞƌŝŽĚϭϰϳϰͲϭϱϱϬ͘
dĂďůĞϯ͘džŽŐĞŶĞŝƚLJŽĨƌĞůŝŐŝŽƵƐůŝŶŬĂŐĞƐ
;ϭͿ
ĞƉĞŶĚĞŶƚsĂƌŝĂďůĞ
ŐĞ
ŐĞ
Ϯ
ƉƉƌĞŶƚƐŚŝƉ
EƵŵďĞƌŽĨƐƚĂƚƵƚŽƌLJĐŚĂŶŐĞƐϭϰϳϰͲϭϱϱϬ
;ϮͿ
;ϯͿ
ZĞůŝŐŝŽƵƐ
ZĞůŝŐŝŽƵƐ
ZĞůŝŐŝŽƵƐ
ĐŽŶĨƌĂƚĞƌŶŝƚLJ ĐŽŶĨƌĂƚĞƌŶŝƚLJ ĐŽŶĨƌĂƚĞƌŶŝƚLJ
;ϰͿ
ZĞůŝŐŝŽƵƐ
ĐŽŶĨƌĂƚĞƌŶŝƚLJ
Ϭ͘ϬϬϭ
;Ϭ͘ϬϬϭͿ
Ϭ͘ϬϬϭ
;Ϭ͘ϬϬϭͿ
ͲϬ͘ϬϬϭ
;Ϭ͘ϬϬϭͿ
ͲϬ͘ϬϬϭ
;Ϭ͘ϬϬϭͿ
Ϭ͘Ϭϰϲ
;Ϭ͘ϬϰϮͿ
Ϭ͘ϬϰϮ
;Ϭ͘ϬϰϮͿ
Ϭ͘ϬϮϮ
;Ϭ͘ϬϰϰͿ
Ϭ͘Ϭϯϵ
;Ϭ͘ϬϰϰͿ
EKd^͗ K>^ ƌĞŐƌĞƐƐŝŽŶ ǁŝƚŚ ƌŽďƵƐƚ ƐƚĂŶĚĂƌĚ ĞƌƌŽƌƐ͘ Ύ ƐŝŐŶŝĨŝĐĂŶƚ Ăƚ ϭϬ ƉĞƌĐĞŶƚ͕ ΎΎ ƐŝŐŶŝĨŝĐĂŶƚ Ăƚ ϱ ƉĞƌĐĞŶƚ ĂŶĚ ΎΎΎ
ƐŝŐŶŝĨŝĐĂŶƚ Ăƚ ϭ ƉĞƌĐĞŶƚ͘ dŚĞ ĚĞƉĞŶĚĞŶƚ ǀĂƌŝĂďůĞ ŝƐ ĨŝůƚĞƌĞĚ ǁŝƚŚ ĐŝƚLJ ĞĨĨĞĐƚƐ ĂŶĚ Ă ĚƵŵŵLJ ĨŽƌ ƚƌĂĚĞ ŐƵŝůĚƐ͘
ƉƉƌĞŶƚŝĐĞƐŚŝƉсϭ ŝĨ ƚŚĞ Η/ƐƚŝƚƵnjŝŽŶŝ ŽƌƉŽƌĂƚŝǀĞΗ ĚĂƚĂďĂƐĞ ĚŽĐƵŵĞŶƚƐ ĂŶ ĂƉƉƌĞŶƚŝĐĞƐŚŝƉ ƌĞƋƵŝƌĞŵĞŶƚ͘ ŐĞс ĂŐĞ ŽĨ ƚŚĞ
ŐƵŝůĚŝŶϭϱϬϬ͘
© Copyright 2026 Paperzz