2014 Midterm Election
G. Terry Madonna
Center for Politics & Public Affairs
The Floyd Institute
Franklin & Marshall College
Lancaster, PA
[email protected]
Incumbency Problems

Johnson: Withdrew from reelection

Nixon: Watergate

Reagan: Iran Contra

Clinton: Monica, Impeachment

G.W. Bush: economy, Iraq War, Katrina

Obama: Aggressive 2nd term agenda—IRS,
Benghazi, NSA, Syria, Iran, Shutdown, ACA.
2014 National Key Points

5-7 Point Enthusiasm Gap + Republican – 2010

44.2% - Obama Job Performance – 2014

45% - Obama Job Performance – 2010

0.3% - Republican Generic Vote – 2014

9% - Republican Generic Vote – 2010
2014 National Key Points Cont.

63.2% - Country Wrong Track – 2014

64% - Country Wrong Track – 2010

14.9% - Congressional Job- Approval- 2014

15% - Congressional Job-Approval- 2010
Historical Presidential Approval
Source: Nate Silver
Midterm Losses by Presidential Party
1946-2010
Source: Pendulum Swing
Source: The Crystal Ball
Source: The Crystal Ball
Source: The Crystal Ball
2014 Senate R’s need 6 seats

D – Defend 6 seats in states Obama lost in 2012

Alaska, Arkansas, Louisiana, Montana, North
Carolina, South Dakota

R – Lost 5 seats in 2010 + 2012 that they should
have won.

D – Beating D Senate incumbents still tough –
only 3 Democratic incumbents lost in last
decade.
Senate Partisanship
HOUSE
DEMOCRAT
REPUBLICAN
2008
255
178
2010
192
242 +63
2012
201 +8
234
HOUSE-D’s need 17 seats

1982-2004 10 Seats or less loss
 One exception in 1994

2006- D 31 seat gain

2008- D 23 seat gain

2010- R 63 seat gain

212 House R’s won by 10pts in districts Romney carried
HOUSE SEATS BIG LOSSES




1938
1946
1958
1966
D
D
R
D
72
55
47
47




1974
1994
2006
2010
R
D
R
D
43
54
30
63
Republicans Likely to Win House
George Washington University
House Partisanship
Redistricting



Congress
43 States—Legislatures
7 States—Boards / Commissions
435 US House Districts
195
R Control
49
D Control
92
R / D Divided
92
Commission
SENATE 2010



TOOMEY
51%
SESTAK
49%
Victory by 77,000 votes

TOOMEY 60 of 67
Allegheny, Delaware, Erie,
Lackawanna, Luzerne,
Philadelphia and Montgomery
PENNSYLVANIA CONGRESS
Democrat
Republican
2008
12
7
2010
7
12
2012
6
13
2010 – 2012 PA Congress
3rd
KELLY
56%
DAHLKEMPER
44%
7th
MEEHAN
55%
LENTZ
45%
8th
FITZPATRICK
53%
MURPHY
47%
10th
MARINO
53%
CARNEY
45%
11th
BARLETTA
55%
KANJORSKI
45%
12th
ROTHFUS
52%
CRITZ
48%
GOVERNORS
DEMOCRAT
REPUBLICAN
2008
26
24
2010
19
29
Pennsylvania Governor – 2010



Corbett 55%
Onorato 46%
Victory by 350,000 votes

Corbett 63 of 67 counties
Delaware, Philadelphia, Montgomery and Lackawanna
Corbett-Onorato (PBC)
Governors’ Job Performance
Source: F&M Poll
Governor Corbett’s Re-election Hurdles

Inherits budget deficit

Education, county human service cuts?

Penn State

Stagnate economy

Partial agenda

Communication issues
Corbett’s Positives

No general tax hikes

Infrastructure legislation

Improved top staff

Strong commercial TV

Possible legislative accomplishments

Bruising Democratic primary
Democratic Primary
Were 7 candidates—now there are 4

Policy and ideological positions

Campaign finance resources

Party and union support

Geographic considerations

Role of gender

Potential divisivness
Democratic Primary-Current Standing
F&M Poll, February 2014
Gubernatorial Races
PENNSYLVANIA STATE
LEGISLATURE 2008 - 2012
House
Republican
Democrat
2008
99
104
2010
112
91
2012
111
92
Senate
Republican
Democrat
2008
30
20
2010
30
20
2012
27
23
PENNSYLVANIA TURNOUT

2006
49%

2008
68%

2010
46%
G. Terry Madonna
Email [email protected]
http://politics.fandm.edu
Franklin & Marshall College Poll
Voter and Political Analysis
Politically Uncorrected