CHERRY PRODUCTION IN BULGARIA CHERRY PRODUCTION IN “InteliAgro” Author: Nikolay Valkanov Sofia, June, 2015 BULGARIA Market and opportunity analysis WITH THE SUPPORT OF “AMERICA FOR BULGARIA” FOUNDATION 1 CHERRY PRODUCTION IN BULGARIA Contents: Summary ............................................................................................................................................... 3 Global tendencies ................................................................................................................................... 4 Cherry production in Bulgaria ................................................................................................................ 7 Demand for cherries in Bulgaria............................................................................................................. 9 Processing............................................................................................................................................ 9 Internal market for fresh consumption ............................................................................................. 10 Export ............................................................................................................................................... 10 Role of support ..................................................................................................................................... 10 Issues and challenges ........................................................................................................................... 11 SWOT analysis ....................................................................................................................................... 13 Application ............................................................................................................................................ 15 Notes and sources................................................................................................................................. 16 About INTELIAGRO................................................................................................................................ 17 2 CHERRY PRODUCTION IN BULGARIA Summary The production of cherries changed under the influence of new developments and technologies. Rootstocks that constrained growth, new varieties, developing means to overcome the negative effects of climate allow for early entry into fruiting, higher yields, larger and harder fruit. Post-harvest handling and marketing play an increasingly larger role. The development in production and the growing purchasing power from emerging markets has led to increased global production of cherries to 3.1 million MT in 2015 35% more than the record 2013. Turkey is the undisputed global leader in the production of cherries and third largest exporter after the United States and Chile. In the Balkans, this business remains popular, especially in Greece, Romania, Bulgaria, Serbia and Albania (intensive development in the recent years). The production of cherries is one of the most attractive horticultural sectors in Bulgaria. The proportion of harvested areas with cherries reached 24% of all trees in 2014 compared to 17.7% in 2007. The production volume ranks second only to apples. Bulgaria has its place among the leading producers of cherries in the world, but has to overcome a number of challenges. The varietal and age structure of plantations, the technologies used and carelessness of many small farmers, have made it so that the main part of the production goes to processing. The mass cherry harvested in Bulgaria cannot find market outlets for fresh consumption. The Kyustendil region, popular for a long time with its cherries is in decline with highly fragmented ownership of the orchards (average size of 8 decares), old plantations and varieties. The largest production region in the country is the Southeast one. There is a growing interest in creating new plantations in Northern Bulgaria. Bulgaria is part of the overall European market - the largest consumer of fresh cherries and one of the most affluent in the world. Local producers have the opportunity to take advantage of new, but already tested and proven varieties of rootstocks and technologies for planting, formations, and plant protection agents. For the successful realization of the cherries produced for fresh consumption in premium markets, investments in quality certification, cooling, calibration, packaging and marketing will be essential. For smaller producers (under 50 decares) association will only guarantee investments in increasing the value added of production. The role of the state to support the sector should be mainly targeted at external challenges – the easier and cheaper access to land, water, energy, and property protection for the producers. The biggest upcoming challenge will be the lack of specialized and non-specialized workforce. We expect this problem to exacerbate even more. 3 CHERRY PRODUCTION IN BULGARIA Global tendencies World cherry production and harvested areas 2,5 450 400 2,0 350 300 1,5 250 200 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 1,0 mln t (left scale) 000 ha (right scale) Source: FAO Change in cheery fields (in ha) in Top 15 countries 1994 2003 2013 2013/03 Turkey 18 483 24 000 51 132 113% USA 20 060 29 433 36 040 22% Italy 24 599 28 558 30 581 7% Syria 6 500 11 500 29 536 157% Iran 15 000 26 686 29 000 9% Spain 28 000 28 727 25 300 -12% Chile 3 200 6990 16 243 132% Russia 24 000 26 000 16 000 -38% Ukraine 20 000 14 900 12 400 -17% Greece 9 630 9 400 12 000 28% Uzbekistan 4 963 4 500 12 000 167% Austria 8400 8 400 11 349 35% Poland 9700 11 040 10 879 -1% Serbia 9% N/D* 8 500** 9 300 * Total for Serbia and Montenegro – 6780 ha ** Data is based on FAO estimates from which we have subtracted the presumable areas in Montenegro – approx. 700 ha Source: FAO The 15 biggest cherry producers in 2013 (tonnes) and average yields (tonnes/ha) Turkey USA Iran Italy Uzbekistan Spain Chile Ukraine Romania Russia Syria Greece Poland Austria France 9,6 8,4 6,9 4,3 8,3 3,8 5,6 6,6 11,4 4,9 2,1 4,9 4,4 3,6 4,3 0 100000 200000 300000 400000 500000 Source: calculations based on FAO data The global production of cherries has changed significantly over the past 15 years. New rootstocks were introduced that restrict vegetative growth and allow more plants to be planted on the same area, as well as earlier fruiting. New varieties have been developed that self-pollinate to give larger and tougher fruit, suitable for mechanized harvesting, etc. In parallel, new technologies were developed to protect crops from frost, hail and cracking; this now allows precise sorting, cooling and storage. All this, together with the increasing purchasing power from emerging markets, led to an increase in production of cherries in the world. The harvested areas have increased by 17% for the 2004-2013 period, compared to 12% in 1994-2003 and are now over 405,000 ha. Average yields also increased, reaching 5.58 MT/ha for the past five crop years that have available global data (2009-2013). In comparison, the average yield in the late 90s of the twentieth century was 5.24 MT/ha. As a result, global production was close to 2.3 million MT in 2013, which is an increase of 35% on the 1.7 million MT in 2004. Global production will reach 3.1 million MT in 2015, according to preliminary estimates from Belrose, Inc. Turkey has become the undisputed global market leader in fresh cherries in the last ten years, displacing the United States. The country doubled the areas it’s utilizing and they are now over 51,000 ha, with production exceeding 494,000 MT. The areas in the US are also increasing, albeit at a slower pace. The country retains its second place as a producer, and we expect production to accelerate further in the coming years because of serious investments in intensive crops, technologies for preventing adverse weather conditions and others that will bring higher yields. 4 CHERRY PRODUCTION IN BULGARIA The 15 biggest fresh cherry consumers in 2013 (in MT) EU Turkey China Russia USA Ukraine Syria Uzbekistan Hong Kong Canada Japan Australia Chile Argentina South Korea 429 152 291 240 213 519 150 145 142 412 66 350 55 000 45 000 32 031 28 600 23 790 16 100 15 300 14 620 13 936 Source: USDA The 15 biggest fresh cherry exporters in 2013 (in MT) USA Chile Turkey Greece Spain Austria Poland Italy Canada Syria Uzbekistan Kyrgyzstan Germany The… France 66 797 66 600 53 760 23 570 22 378 15 501 10 147 10 082 6 200 5 000 5 000 4 800 4 636 4058 3750 Source: USDA, Eurostat Cherry production of the Balkan countries, 2013 hectares 2013/11 1000t 2013/11 1. Turkey 51 131 13% 494,3 12,7% 2. Greece 12 000 22% 58,2 31,7% 3. Romania 7 079 3% 80,5 -1,7% 4. Bulgaria 7 520 -46% 37,7 25,5% 5. Serbia 9 300 2% 28,1 -1,4% 6. Albania 2 500 79% 17 18,7% 7. Bosnia 5 600 -7% 10,9 -3,4% 8. Croatia 1 091 43% 6 -33,6% 9. Macedonia 1 300 7% 6 0,3% 10. Slovenia 148 19% 5,4 27,3% Source: FAO “The Turkish company Alara Agri Business is the second largest exporter of cherries in the world” Chile has also made remarkable progress, where agriculture has picked up the pace of development. Areas with cherries in the country have increased five times over the past 20 years. The country has become a major supplier to the northern hemisphere for fresh fruit out of season. Another interesting manufacturer is Uzbekistan, where in only a few years cherry fields have increased two and a half times. The production is oriented towards the Russian market. In Europe, Spain began to contain the decline in its cherry production caused by the removal of areas with older varieties, the fragmentation of ownership and low yields. Italy retained its positions, but due to the structure of their agriculture, no special expansion is expected. Global production of cherries will continue to grow in the coming years, mainly due to the creation of new gardens in China, Turkey, USA and other major producers. The largest market for fruit remains the EU, where the average consumption per person was 0.85 kg for 2013. The US is followed by Turkey and China, with the latter seeing a rapid increase in customers that can afford the product. Global market trends for fresh consumption are moving towards fruit with a minimum 28 mm caliber (even over 30 mm), dark colour and a long "shelf life". This necessitates investment in intensive cultivation of new varieties (the traditional Bing, for example, cannot meet the new requirements), equipment for sorting, cooling and packaging suitable for a controlled air environment. More on some current research on new varieties and rootstocks can be read in the Annex. “Albania is fast forwarding the development of its production. Serbia is entering the international markets.” 5 CHERRY PRODUCTION IN BULGARIA The largest exporter of fresh cherries in the world continues to be the US, closely followed by Chile. Turkey has traditionally been in the Top 3 of the largest exporters of cherries in the world, in 2013 the country exported 53.7 thousand MT - 13 thousand MT less than the first two countries. An interesting example is Austria, which is not normally associated with horticulture, but Europe is oriented in the premium segment and is strongly advertised and perceived as an organic producer. Its exports exceed 15 thousand MT. The Balkan region is also particularly interesting in terms of cherry production. Turkey expects production of cherries in season 2015 to reach 550 thousand MT, despite a late frost this year. The main variety is the local 0900 Ziraat with 70% of areas and 95% of exports on the Mazard planting rootstock and less than Mahalebka. This means huge trees, and a difficult, expensive and dangerous harvest. Irrigation is not used in many areas as well as pruning. Intensive techniques have been adopted after 2000, as the most promising rootstocks that have emerged are SL 64, Gisela 6 PHL and Maxima 14. Traditionally, the major markets for Turkish cherries are Germany, with about one third of the quantities and Russia with about a quarter. The Turkish company Alara Agri Business is the largest exporter of figs and the second largest exporter of fresh cherries in the world. The company has its own 280 ha of intensive cherry orchards, certified by GlobalGap and Natures Choice, which provides produce from May until August. In addition, Alara Agri works with nearly 2000 manufacturers, from which they buy produce. They employ the services of eight hydrocoolers to lower produce temperature to two degrees, after which it is transported to the central packaging workshop in Bursa, which has a capacity of 400 MT per day. Alara Agri has investments in cherry production in Argentina and delivers products to retailers in 22 countries on 5 continents. The company's goal is to be able to supply fresh fruit from different sources 365 days a year. The greatest increase in areas with cherries in recent years can be seen in Albania, Croatia and Greece. While Albania is rapidly developing its production, Serbia has started to enter the international markets (mainly Russia and Belarus). The country is a traditional producer in the region with an average annual production of 26.3 thousand MT for the 201113 period. It is noteworthy that Turkey, Romania and Greece, which are the largest producers in the region, are performing significantly better on the market for fresh consumption than Bulgaria. Only in the last 4-5 years has our country returned on the map of exporting countries, but it cannot boast with any significant amounts or with winning serious market shares. However, Bulgaria has its place as a producer of cherries because of its climate and natural resources. Its potential is yet to be developed and shows significant growth reserves with the appropriate development conditions. 6 CHERRY PRODUCTION IN BULGARIA Cherry production in Bulgaria Cherry production and harvested fileds in Bulgaria 40 000 10 000 8 000 30 000 6 000 20 000 4 000 10 000 2 000 0 0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 tonnes (left scale) ha (right scale) Source: “Agrostatistics” department, MAF Size and legal status of producers, 2013/ 2007 number ha 2013/07 2013/07 Individuals 9 288 6 338 -6% 58% ЕТ 105 355 35% -8% COOP 46 767,7 -21% -45% Companies 238 2 429 190% 221% Associations 18 2% -28% 18% Total 9 695 79% -4% 51% Source: “Agrostatistics” department, MAF Average farm size (in ha) by legal status type, 2013/2007 г. 24 16,5 9 5 0,7 1 0,4 0,7 3,4 2006/07 2 2012/13 Source: “Agrostatistics” department, MAF Distribution of cherry fields by NUTS 2 regions in 2014 (in ha) 827 657 170 3959 1964 2021 10 3 Cherry production is one of the most attractive horticultural sectors in the country. In the last seven years, the share of harvested areas with cherries from high orchards reached 24% (2014) from 17.7% (2007). In terms of volume, production ranks second after apples. In the first half of the period, its crops have the highest share among new plants - 20-24%, but this share is gradually decreasing. Walnuts are seeing a rapid increase, with new fields increasing in 2013, pulling them ahead of those planted with cherries, according to InteliAgro estimates. Increased interest in the creation of new walnut trees, in our opinion, is due in no small part to the Rural area Development Program (RDP). Such tree varieties have greater weight in determining the standard production volume of farms. Furthermore, the walnut is widely seen as a culture that does not require special care and can easily be grown organically and can respectively receive a higher subsidy. However, new fields with cherries have grown in absolute terms - they reached 269 ha in 2013 (14% of new orchards in the country), compared to 172.5 ha in 2010 (21.3% of the total). This, according to us, speaks about the confirmed potential development opportunities for cherries. Investment in new orchards comes just in time to meet the need for the replacement of plants that are physically and production-wise obsolete, that have remained as a heritage from the privatization of land in the 90s of the twentieth century. According to estimates of the “Agrostatistics” department of the MAF (Ministry of Agriculture and Foods), by 2007 31% of cherry orchards or 1891 ha were over 20 years old and they are now exiting their fruiting lifespan. In the next ten years, nearly 900 ha of old trees will come out of fruiting. Source: MAF, own calculations 7 CHERRY PRODUCTION IN BULGARIA The need for replacement of existing plants is even greater. The main part of the young gardens (0-4 years) at the time (2007), amounting to 2684 ha, were planted with old technologies and seeds of dubious origin. The level of consulting services was also unsatisfactory and the general knowledge of farmer/investors - quite low. All this predetermines the quick elimination of some of these plants in the future or steering their production entirely towards processing (which means lower prices of realization). Another factor that speaks of weakness is the varietal structure of the orchards. According to data from 2007, the three main varieties Wang Bing and Early black large, took up 56.5% of areas. This shows a considerable diversity of the plantations. Data regarding varieties created subsequently is unfortunately missing, but having in mind the entrance of new varieties in recent years, it can be assumed that the varietal structure is still too diverse. This creates a significant problem in organizing homogenous lots, either for fresh consumption on the domestic market, but mainly for export, where significant volume of the same size and ripeness is sought. For this reason, the export of fresh cherries from the country between 2000 and 2010 (for which we have data) is practically symbolic (300-400 MT in the best years). Overcoming this problem began with the establishment of large plantations and intensive investment in refrigeration systems, calibration and product preparation. As a result, exports gradually increased to 3366 MT in 2013. These examples, although few and far between, are showing the way for the development of the sector. The structure of cherry farms, underwent some significant changes over the past seven years (2007-2013). Their number decreased by 4.5% for the period, but overall areas increased by 50%. The average size of a cherry plantation increased from 6.5 to 10.3 decares. Most new plantations were created by companies and their share in planted areas has reached 24% from 11% previously. Cooperatives have the greatest decrease in interest in cherries, as they reduce both the number of growers and the average size of gardens. A smaller decline is seen in the number of individuals growing cherries, but the average size of their gardens is growing. The geography of production also saw some changes. The traditionally popular cherry region of Kyustendil has been in decline with strongly fragmented ownership of the orchards (average size of 8 decares), old plantations and varieties. Small farmers do not take adequate care, with the result being that the output is low quality and it mainly goes to processing. The largest production area is in the southeast of the country, where nearly 4,000 ha (41% of the total) of farms are concentrated mainly in the Burgas, Stara Zagora and Sliven regions. The average size of the gardens is among the highest in the country - 17 decares. There is a growing interest in creation of new plantations in Northern Bulgaria - mainly in Ruse, Silistra, Razgrad, Pleven, and Dobrich. There the average size of the gardens is the largest - 20-22 decares. The varietal and age structure of plantations, the technologies used and the carelessness of many of the smaller producers largely predetermines the fact that the main portion of what is being created, going to processing. The mass harvested cherry in Bulgaria, cannot find market outlets for fresh consumption. On the one hand, this market is relatively small because of the worsening demographic structure and the low purchasing power of the population (everywhere around the world cherries are a premium product that relatively small proportion of people, with incomes above the average, could afford). On the other, many domestic products have difficulties meeting the high requirements for the demand in foreign markets. 8 CHERRY PRODUCTION IN BULGARIA Cherry market structure, 2007-2014 г. (tonnes) 50 000 40 000 30 000 20 000 10 000 0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 -10 000 Processing Export Fresh consumption Source: own calculations based on MAF and NSI (National Statistics Institute) Market shares of cherry processors, 2013 So a large number of producers - individuals for whom cherry orchards are a hereditary source of additional income, are doomed to drop out of the market in a natural way. The rest will be forced to settle for lower purchase prices given by processors. In parallel, they will have to invest in the replacement of old crops or the creation of new, intensive crops, that can gradually enter the market for fresh consumption, whether domestic or foreign. However, the only way for the smaller ones among them (under 50 decares) will be association and joint investment in equipment and distribution. 2% 15% Demand for cherries in Bulgaria Processing 20% 63% Kuminiano Fruit Balkan Fruit Avius-2003 Other Source: Annual financial report of the companies, own calculations Bulgarian fresh cherries export (in MT) 3366 2180 1257 281 2007 2008 1192 1092 434 107 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Source: NSI Main export destinations in 2014 Tonnes 000 € Russia 618 659,8 Belarus 195 122 Italy 99 206 Germany 41 86 Lithuania 32 29 Main export destinations in 2013 Tonnes 000 € Russia 2 538 2 906,8 Belarus 194,5 188,6 Moldova 145 212,7 Serbia 127 102,5 Germany 104 166,7 Source: Eurostat €/kg 1,07 0,63 2,09 1,36 0,70 €/kg 1,15 0,97 1,47 0,81 1,60 2014 Between 55-60% of cherries in Bulgaria have been bought for processing during the last five years. The biggest buyer is “Kuminiano fruit”, which has been on the market since the early 90s and was established with Italian capital. The company holds about two-thirds of the market for processed cherries - its main activity is the production of pulp. The owners of Kuminiano fruit have invested in 3,000 decares of cherry orchards in the Plovdiv region in recent years, but are still actively buying produce, mainly from central and eastern Bulgaria. The company has been processing an average of between 15-20,000 MT of cherries in each of the last three years by InteliAgro estimates. The second place is disputed between Balkan Fruit, which is also backed by Italian capital and has similar activities, and the Bulgarian company Avius-2003. Serena and Struma fruit, as well as other Bulgarian companies that are oriented in the dried fruits segment buy smaller quantities. The low quality of domestically produced cherries and the development of processing have turned Bulgaria into a significant exporter of canned cherries. The average export volume is estimated at between 40 and 52 mln. leva 9 CHERRY PRODUCTION IN BULGARIA (between 5 and 7 MT) for the last five years, according to data from the NSI. Internal market for fresh consumption The market for fresh consumption in the country has varied considerably in recent years, depending on weather conditions and crops. According to calculations based on data from the "Agrostatistics", it amounts to 1320,000 MT. It is more likely, however, that these quantities include those purchased by Romanian traders whose activity increased in the last 3-4 years and this isn’t reflected in export statistics. Despite the lack of accurate data, it can be concluded that the cherry fruit remains popular in the country, regardless of the relatively high price compared to other fresh fruits. Demand for its canning as a bottled fruit and jams, especially in smaller towns, creates a market for low quality output that would otherwise be hard to place, except for processing. The major markets for fresh consumption are the Black Sea coastal region, Plovdiv and Stara Zagora. Several Bulgarian companies are taking advantage of modern retail channels to sell their products on the domestic market. Among them are Agroprodukt Group (Trilistnik), Agrotime (Isperih) and Diva Agro (St. Zagora). Bulgarian cherries can be found in Metro, Kaufland, Billa, T Market. However, the quantities that pass through retailers are still small compared to the overall market. Export Significant export quantities of fresh cherries have been observed since 2010. Between 8090% of the quantities are directed towards countries outside the EU - mainly to Russia (57% in 2014) and Belarus (18%). Exports to countries such as Austria, Germany, Italy, Netherlands and Poland are sporadic. In recent years Romanian traders have been especially active on the domestic markets, but the quantities they buy and export are hard to trace. The main problem for exports, as already mentioned, is the difficulty that traders have with compiling sufficient volumes of homogenous lots, the lack of cooling and calibration. Of no less importance are the lack of quality standards that are upheld in more lucrative markets. There are only a few companies certified by GlobalGap (according to the company's database they are four - RunoKazanlak Ltd., Kapatovo Ltd., Throne Ltd. and Agrotime Ltd.). Certification would open the way for Bulgarian cherries to Western Europe. The difference in the cost of realization between the EU and CIS countries is over 50%. While exporters to the EU 28 have received an average price of €1.58/kg in 2014, these for other countries have received €0.97/kg. Role of support After joining the EU in 2007, the producers of cherries with more than 10 decares of gardens began to receive funds under the Single Payment Scheme per Area (SAPA), as all other farmers in the country. The payment, which has progressively reached 30 lev/decare in 2013 played a large role in the development of grain production, where the cost per unit area are significantly lower compared to perennials. From 2012, the Scheme for improving the quality of fruits and vegetables produced in Bulgaria (SIFV) was introduced. Through it cherry producers could be supported with almost 18st/kg (approx. 0.09 euro cents) of production that meets the requirements for quality (up to 700 kg per decare). There is state aid which compensates producers for winter spraying of orchards. Average payment through it in 2013-14, according to data from the industry, is about 25 lev/decare Applying for it is often problematic because of the short application window, the short deadline for notifying that applications have been received and other administrative issues. 10 CHERRY PRODUCTION IN BULGARIA Generally, the larger producers (excluding individuals with an average garden size of about 10 decares) could almost entirely cover the running costs for the year, excluding the cost of picking. In the new programing period from 2015 to 2020, the structure of the support is significantly altered. SIFV is no longer active, but with the newly introduced direct support schemes for producers of cherries, they can receive between 144-148 lev/decare, according to preliminary estimates. If state aid for winter spraying is added to this, then the running costs will largely be covered. It is difficult to predict how the size of the support will affect the level of competitiveness of Bulgarian producers by the end of the current programing period. On the one hand, those who have invested in new plantations and are oriented towards the fresh consumption market, will have a higher rate of return. On the other hand, the level of support will keep weak orchards on the market, with low quality production that otherwise would have been dropped. In the current situation, where the famine for land is exacerbated and the need for expansion of already existing quality gardens will grow, it could play a restraining role in the development of the sector. Issues and challenges We divide the main problems and challenges in three main groups, with each of them having its own particular importance for the development of the sector. Firstly, there is the preparedness, training and skills, the desire to seek and receive new knowledge from the producers themselves. Bulgaria lacks ancestral farming because of more than 45 years of disconnection between the land and the owner. It is yet to develop among those producers who manage to overcome the growing up mistakes and remain on the market. The lack of understanding that the only measure of success of an agricultural business is meeting the needs of the user is also quite widespread. The belief that agricultural activity in itself is a value that should be promoted and subsidized in any way, regardless of whether or not it brings benefits to society, is also quite common. The change in this attitude and finding a sustainable and balanced approach to satisfy consumer demand will underpin the development of successful farming in the country and cherry production in particular. That means a continuous engagement of attention to the changes that occur in the sector and following its developments. The second group of problems is just as important. It is associated primarily with the development environment for cherry production and it is difficult to give greater weight to any of the questions. Solving each of them is an absolute necessity not only to the “cherry” sector, but also for agriculture in the country as a whole. A major problem is the fragmented land ownership. This problem will be compounded furthermore by the increasing number of heirs. The difficulties that this creates, both for the current landholders and before the entry of new farmers into production, requires finding an acceptable solution that does not exclude new land division and a new Law for agricultural land. Irrigation remains a fundamental problem. Legalizing old drilling and the obtaining of permits for new ones are too slow and expensive (the procedure takes about one year and can cost between 7 and 10 thousand levs). There is a pressing need to rethink the legislation in this sphere and reduce the accompanying costs. The next major challenge is related to the protection of the right to property. In various areas of the country, it is manifested in two main directions: 11 CHERRY PRODUCTION IN BULGARIA 1) Protecting young trees in new plantations (there are cases of theft of freshly planted seedlings); 2) Protection of crops from damage and theft; In both directions the main victims are small and medium sized farmers. The violations are usually marginalized groups in rural areas, which in most cases go unpunished. Commenting on the legal and other aspects of the protection of property rights can’t be the subject of this study, but we must pay attention to the fact that the protection of the property of farmers outside settlements, can be an enormous challenge. One of the main advantages of the Bulgarian cherry producer - cheap labor, also appears to be a challenge for the sector. The majority of pickers are from marginalized groups and are uneducated, without work habits and poorly motivated. With some of them, in the words of the producers, work is under duress due to the lack of other workers. The most common complaints associated with labor are absence from work, theft of goods, careless attitude towards trees (breaking of branches, etc.). The average productivity per picker is between 60 kg/day (with premium fresh consumption) to more than 100 kilograms per day. Daily wages during the last 3-4 years are between 25-35stkg and can reach in isolated cases up to 60st/kg for picking quality fruit for fresh consumption or for export. The majority of seasonal workers do not want to legalize their relationships with producers, because they would lose their social benefits on which they are heavily dependent. This creates problems for the farmers when there are labor inspection. It is still early to say what the impact will be of a new voucher system for seasonal workers, introduced from 2015, with which they can work legally without losing their social benefits. However, the main problems in this regard still remain. The social assistance system in its present form will continue to discourage legitimate application of labor and job search. At present we see no way out of the difficulties of finding suitable laborers and this problem is yet to reach its peak. The sector suffers from a lack of specialized personnel - agronomists, mechanics and experts on plant protection products. The lack of a connection between business and education, from which the overall Bulgarian economy suffers, is also present in agriculture. The only key here is the interest of those already in the sector and their children, for obtaining quality education and training, because most graduates from agricultural specialties have no interest in practicing it and move to jobs in commerce. Access to electricity is the next major challenge for a larger investment in cherry fields. The cost for connecting to the grid start from 32 thousand levs and can reach 80 thousand according to data from the sector, and the procedure can take 4-5 months (Doing Business 2014, World Bank). The third group of challenges is more general in nature and is mainly related to the external environment. Consumption of cherries remains an emotional purchase of a relatively expensive fruit. Demand will depend largely on the overall development of the economy and welfare of the population. In addition, exports are affected by the temporary restrictions and sanctions on trade. The embargo imposed by Russia on imports of certain foodstuffs originating in the EU, among them fresh fruits, damaged the cherry market this year. Exports declined, including demand from Romania and as the season progresses the price of mass cherries dropped by 40-50% compared to last year. 12 CHERRY PRODUCTION IN BULGARIA SWOT analysis STRENGTHS: Good natural and geographical conditions; Attractive product with excellent taste quality; Traditional production. OPPORTUNITIES: Proximity to large, lucrative markets; Priority financing through the new Common Agricultural Policy; New, tested technologies; New varieties; Vertical integration. The sector has its strengths, such as suitable natural and geographic conditions. Although not unique, they enable the launch of early production – from mid-May, which means higher price realization and competitive advantages. The product is attractive and highly valued for its taste qualities both at home and abroad. This again goes to show that without high quality products, certified under international standards and without the development of new markets, farmers will rely on producers of pulp. To use these advantages to their full extent, manufacturers must overcome their weaknesses. First comes the vision and proper planning of a garden. It goes through the following steps: WEAKNESSES: Lack of vision; Relatively low average yields; Production that is too diverse; Hard produce realization; Bad garden structure. THREATS: Access to land, water and energy; Climate factors; Price fluctuations; Heightened market requirements; Access to specialists and pickers. 1) Answering the question: What do I aim to achieve with my plantation? - a hobby, premium income, permanent income for me/my family, a business that is growing? 2) How much land do I need and are my plots suitable for growing cherries? 3) Do I have access to water, labor and other resources needed in the area in which I plan to develop? 4) Where can I sell the produce and at what price? Is there a channel nearby for premium realization (a summer resort, large city, large chain store, etc.)? - Where can I deliver produce and what are the requirements (type, size, variety and preparation of the 13 CHERRY PRODUCTION IN BULGARIA fruit, certificates, what are the costs)? - If for some reason or another my goods go for processing, will income cover the costs? Is it sustainable to sell only for processing? 5) What are the costs of making the investment, how will I finance it and how long will it take to return the investment? 6) Choosing the right consultant with which to pick varieties, rootstocks and the formations that will be optimal for achieving the objectives of the farm. Such an approach would remove the current weaknesses observed in the sector - low yields, lack of quality, uniform batches, realization problems and so on. It is also applicable to already existing gardens and will help assess the real situation and possibilities for improving the results. Positive prospects for the sector are visible. Bulgaria is part of the overall European market, which remains the largest consumer of fresh cherries and is one of the most affluent in the world. Producers can benefit from already tested varieties in countries with similar natural and climate features, as well as rootstocks, planting technologies, formations, plant protection agents, to implement proven technologies in the preparation of the collected products, protecting crops from climate factors, types of irrigation. All this gives opportunities to expand the production window and increasing yields. Certification should not be underestimated, traceability of the produce and marketing, things that can pay off over and over. The largest manufacturers should think about investing in calibrating equipment, cooling and their own packing. Smaller producers could integrate with them, creating modern plants of 50-200 decares to replenish the lots. For smaller producers (under 50 decares) only association can guarantee the opportunity for investments in increasing the production value added. The above-mentioned path is the one for producers who want to meet the increasing demands for export. Entering diverse foreign markets (and not developing a strong dependence on a single one) is the only guarantee to secure a good return in the long run. The domestic market for fresh consumption does not have enough promise (because of demographic and economic processes) to be relied upon for the realization of large quantities of quality products. The increased focus of European support on fruit-growing development provides good prospects for financial support for the restructuring of the sector. The role of the state in supporting the sector should be targeted mainly at tackling external challenges - access to land, water, energy, and protection of the property of the producers. The main weaknesses and challenges described above can be overcome with personal, collective and state responsibility. The issue of access to specialized and general labor is slightly different. Creating good specialists with practical experience is a long process. It is quite clear that business will have a major role to play in this, at first by attracting foreign specialists and also investing in the education and training of existing staff. It is unrealistic to believe that the declining state educational institutions can create the necessary staff for the sector. Perhaps the biggest problem that will emerges in the future is with laborers. Emigration, the social system in the country, low wages, reluctance of working on farms and the poor quality and work awareness of agricultural workers represent the greatest threat to the development of the sector. A potential expansion of the production of fruit and vegetables in the country, in line with the priorities of MAF for the programing period up to 2020, could face manufacturers with an extremely acute problem of lack of labor. 14 CHERRY PRODUCTION IN BULGARIA A solution could be sought in reducing social benefits and state aid and redirecting them towards subsidized employment. Such a decision must always be taken after a proper analysis of the situation and the prospects. Application In the following text you will find the results of some recent surveys on different varieties, rootstocks and formations. Regarding the size of the fruit, among the largest and already spread varieties in the Northern hemisphere, we have the proven Tieton (28-31 mm), Santina (28-30 mm), Benton (28-30 mm), Sandra Rose (28-31 mm), Kordia (28-30 mm), Lapins (28-30 mm), Selah (28-31 mm), Skeena (28-31 mm) and Regina (28-30 mm). Of these Santina, Benton, Skeena and Regina have shown exemplary firmness. However, they can several weaknesses – they either tend to crack, or have an intolerance to certain rootstocks, or are not self-polinators (Oregon State University, 2007). Varieties like Grace Star, Ferrovia, Sylvia and Giorgia show the highest yields in the intensive rootstocks Gisela 5 and Gisela 6 (between 5.6 and 10.4 MT/ha in different formations in the first five years of fruiting) in a study from the University of Bologna, Italy between 20082013 from them Grace Star, Ferrovia and Giorgia give the most promising results with 80-97% of fruit calibers over 28 mm in different formations (the tested formations are Spindle, V-system , Super Spindle Axes). Research conducted by the Institute of Horticulture in Lithuania on the results of the performance of the Lapins variety on 12 different rootstocks, distinguished Gi 154/7 and Gisela 4, as the most productive rootstocks. They received the highest yields for a five-year period - 8 and 7kg respectively per tree per year (spacing between trees was 3*5 meters). The lowest yields were registered from Gisela 5. P-HL-A and Gi523/02 had the largest fruit and Gisela 5 - the smallest (see more here). 15 CHERRY PRODUCTION IN BULGARIA Notes and sources The preparation for this material used data from internationally recognized sources and official institutions in Bulgaria (the full list can be found below), as well as data from meetings with producers from Kyustendil, Plovdiv, Burgas and Shumen. 1. Faostat (www.faostat.fao.org); 2. USDA (www.apps.fas.usda.gov/psdonline); 3. “Agrostatistics” department, MAF (http://www.mzh.government.bg/MZ H/bg/ShortLinks/SelskaPolitika/Agrost atistics/Crop/Posts_copy3.aspx) 4. NSI (http://ftrade.nsi.bg/portal/page?_pa geid=34,34792&_dad=portal&_schem a=PORTAL); 5. Trade register (https://public.brra.bg/CheckUps/Verif ications/VerificationPersonOrg.ra) 6. Cherries of the World 2014 (http://www.freshfruitportal.com/wpcontent/uploads/2013/12/cherries_of _the_world_2014.pdf); 7. World Sweet Cherry Review – 2014 Edition (www.e-belrose.com); 8. “Investment in Sweet and Sour Cherry Production and New Processing Programs in terms of Serbian Agriculture Competitiveness”; Zorica Sredojević, Dušan Milić, Marko Jeločnik; 2011; However, no part of the text should be used as a recommendation to use a particular type of seeding technology or choosing varieties, rootstocks and formations. Please note that there is no ideal combination of the above that ensures high yields and realization. Optimal choice of materials and technology varies according to the specific soil and climate conditions of a given location. 9. “Sweet Cherry Cultivars for the Fresh Market”, Oregon State Unicersity; 2007; 10. “Sweet cherry rootstocks”, PNW 619; Sept 2010; 11. “New Training Systems for Highdensity Planting of Sweet Cherry”, Stefano Musacchi, Federico Gagliardi, and Sara Serra; Dipartimento di Scienze Agrarie-Alma Mater Studiorum, University of Bologna, Viale Fanin, 4640127 Bologna, Italy; 2015; 12. “Rootstock effect on the performance of sweet cherry cv. Lapins”, J. Lanauskas, N. Uselis, D. Kviklys, N. Kviklienė, L. Buskienė; Institute of Horticulture, Lithuanian Research Centre for Agriculture and Forestry, Babtai, Lithuania; 2012 16 CHERRY PRODUCTION IN BULGARIA About INTELIAGRO InteliAgro is a legal entity working non-profit for public benefit. Created with the support of the Foundation "America for Bulgaria" at the end of 2014 our mission is to support the development of sustainable and competitive agriculture. We believe that the full potential of the sector can be unlocked through a combination of more effective and efficient management of resources, improving the conditions for doing agribusiness, reducing bureaucratic burdens and placing Bulgarian farmers on an equal footing with their European counterparts. If you find this research useful and want us to create such material more often in the future, if you share our mission and vision, you can support our work with ideas, information or a donation. Contacts: Nikolay Valkanov Manager Т: +359 898 33 47 00 @: [email protected] W: www.inteliagro.bg 17
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