Incumbent inertia upon disruptive change in the airline industry: Causal factors for routine rigidity and top management moderators Working Paper No. 9 Leipzig, July 2010 Chair of Strategic Management and Organization HHL – Leipzig Graduate School of Management Incumbent inertia upon disruptive change in the airline industry: Causal factors for routine rigidity and top management moderators Oliver Viellechner and Prof. Dr. Torsten Wulf Working Paper Chair of Strategic Management and Organization Copyright: Lehrstuhl für Strategisches Management und Organisation Leipzig 2010 Jede Form der Weitergabe und Vervielfältigung bedarf der Genehmigung des Herausgebers 2 Chair of Strategic Management and Organization ABSTRACT In the face of disruptive innovations, incumbent firms frequently encounter substantial rigidity in business routines. Our article investigates the role of top management teams to overcome this inertia. Based on a literature review including strategy, organizational and psychological research fields, we conducted four case studies in the European airline industry and collected data from qualitative interviews with senior executives. As a result, we find new causal factors for routine rigidity in four groups, namely knowledge insufficiencies, inadequate self-concept, inflexibilities and financial concerns. Further, we propose a comprehensive set of top management team characteristics along individual members, team structure and team process, which influence the impact of the identified causal factors to ultimately lower routine rigidity. Our findings uniquely link existing research streams and allow practitioners to better prepare incumbent firms for future disruptive change. 3 Chair of Strategic Management and Organization INTRODUCTION This article addresses the response behavior of incumbent firms when facing discontinuous change by business model innovations. Almost always, this entails a problem of inertia, related to the sluggishness of incumbent response due to insecurity in deciding on an adequate response strategy. For instance, when low-cost carriers (LCC) introduced disruptive change in passenger air travel, most incumbents tended to ignore the new phenomenon: "Our pricing strategy is not for debate. Our high quality product justifies a substantial fare differential to LCC" (Anonymous, 2002), a Lufthansa board member stated in 2002. Only some years later, with LCC constantly winning market shares, most airlines finally realized the challenge. The responses of major European incumbents, however, were already late by two to five years. After Christensen and Bower investigated disruptive technologies for the first time (Christensen and Bower, 1996), the topic created broad interest, not only among academics. A Google search yields more than 400,000 hits for the term "disruptive innovation". Christensen/Bower pioneered the academic field by discovering the possibility that technologies with inferior performance may supersede established incumbents. Their group of scholars also explained typical maladaptive incumbent responses to disruptive technologies and provided several response recommendations (Christensen, 2000; Christensen and Raynor, 2003; Christensen, Anthony and Roth, 2004). More recently, scholars also investigated disruptive business models (i.e., disruptive strategic innovations). Scholars categorized typical incumbent response behaviors and developed normative response recommendations (Charitou and Markides, 2003; Markides and Charitou, 2004) or identified factors inhibiting incumbents to extract value from new strategic options (Vlaar, de Vries and Willenborg, 2005). In addition, there are studies focusing on the refinement of definitions, e.g., the development of a scale for the disruptiveness of innovations (Govindarajan and Kopalle, 2006) or on specific sub-elements, such as demand conditions enabling disruptive dynamics (Adner, 2002). 4 Chair of Strategic Management and Organization Gilbert opened a new field of research centering on the struggle and inertia of incumbent firms when facing disruptive strategic innovations. Research within this is still described to be somewhere between nascent and intermediate stage (Edmondson and McManus, 2007). So far, only one interpretive model by Gilbert exists for incumbent inertia that is sufficiently empirically tested (Gilbert, 2005). He identified the role of rigidities and cognitive frames by unbundling the sluggishness of response into denial of resource allocation (resource rigidity) and the change of management processes (routine rigidity). Moreover, he found cognitive framing as threat or opportunity as a key influence factor for incumbent inertia. Subsequently, more researchers focused on rigidities by replicating and extending Gilbert's model and unbundling cognitive framing into profit/loss perception and perceived control (König, 2009). A number of questions, however, still remain unclear. In general, only a few studies comprehensively explain incumbent response behavior and especially the role of top management teams in light of disruptive strategic innovations (Chesbrough, 2001). Rather, many studies investigate isolated aspects of incumbent response, without considering alternative explanation approaches or different research disciplines. Further, studies are often difficult to compare due to ambiguous terminologies and research designs (Gatignon et al., 2002). For example, some work is purely theoretical and lacking empirical grounding, and other studies facilitate either a single or multiple case study based approach. Since investigated discontinuities and industries are highly heterogenous, it remains open if findings using qualitative empirical data can be generalized without further research. More specific, considering Gilbert's (2005) unbundling of inertia into resource and routine rigidity, a detailed understanding of causal factors for routine rigidity linking various research disciplines including strategic management, organizational science and psychology is still missing. In particular, beyond financial concerns, it would be important to understand the role of 5 Chair of Strategic Management and Organization the respective level of expertise, self-concept of the organization, as well as internal and external flexibility. The study of Vlaar et al. (2005) identified several factors for incumbent failure, but insights from our pilot interviews suggest that this list is not exhaustive yet. In addition, their work is based on a literature review without empirical foundation. Since by nature discontinuities like LCC are hard to predict, a central question emerges of what prerequisites can help to prepare incumbents to respond more swiftly in such situations. Certainly, the role of top managers at the apex of incumbent firms needs to be considered pivotal in this respect. Since leadership in corporations is not a given and can be actively influenced, it is particularly worthwile to consider for both research and managerial practice. So far, only König et al. (2008) discussed the influence of several top management team (TMT) variables on the impact of the CEO-framing on resource commitment. However, both the effect on routine rigidity as well as the broader role of top management characteristics are still unclear. Incorporating upper echelons research (Hambrick and Mason, 1984; Finkelstein, Hambrick and Cannella, 2009), this should include individual members' characteristics, the structure of the team or the process in the team. Therefore, by developing four explorative case studies in passenger air travel, we will address these aspects. Specifically, we asked why some incumbent airlines responded later than others and how TMT aspects contributed to this. Since some previous work in the field is purely theoretical and external validity to case-study based research is often debated, we established an empirical foundation in the airline industry. Even though it is hardly possible to anticipate discontinuous innovation, findings from this study will help incumbent firms to prepare for future disruptive changes and allow recognizing them earlier. It is intuitive that TMT have pivotal impact; however, a comprehensive understanding of the most relevant design parameters will tremendously help not only airlines, but firms also in other industries. 6 Chair of Strategic Management and Organization THEORY In management literature, technological innovations and executive influence are not untapped fields. On the one hand, a number of scholars already investigated the impact of technological innovations on incumbent firms. Developed concepts include "strategic responses to technological threats" (Cooper and Schendel, 1976), the "technology S-curve concept" (Foster, 1986), "competence-destroying innovations" (Tushman and Anderson, 1986), "architecturalchanging innovations" (Henderson and Clark, 1990), and "disruptive innovations" (Christensen and Bower, 1996; Gilbert, 2005). On the other hand, a broad range of scholars already discussed the influence of executives on corporate decision making (e.g., Helmich and Brown, 1972; Hage and Dewar, 1973; Hambrick and Mason, 1984; Smith, Carson and Alexander, 1984; Gupta and Govindarajan, 1984; Virany and Tushman, 1986; Pfeffer and Davis-Blake, 1986; Finkelstein, 1988; Cannella and Rowe, 1995). However, the combination of both subject matters, that is, the study of top managers' effect on incumbent response in the face of disruptive innovations, is a highly juvenile field. So far, only one study exists which investigates the role of the CEO in overcoming incumbent inertia (König et al., 2008). This is surprising, as disruptive innovation research has recently started to involve related research disciplines as well, such as psychology, organizational theory, economics or industrial organization (Hill and Rothaermel, 2003; Mellahi and Wilkinson, 2004; Vlaar, de Vries and Willenborg, 2005; Assink, 2006). In innovation research, Christensen/Bower (1996) discovered disruptive innovations by explaining anomalies in the impact of technological innovations on large companies, which previous studies could not sufficiently explain. Their theory relates to specific situations where innovations are not necessarily better, but rather simpler, smaller and cheaper. The authors distinguished disruptive from sustaining innovations. Whereas sustaining technological changes 7 Chair of Strategic Management and Organization appeal to established customers in mainstream markets and provide demanding high-end customers with more of what they had come to expect, disruptive innovations rather redefine the technology trajectory by underperforming established products in mainstream markets and offering other features that a few fringe (and generally new) customers value (Christensen, 2000). Low-end and new-market innovations constitute two different types of disruptive innovations. Whereas the former address over-served customers with a lower-cost business model, the latter create new growth by overcoming lack of deep expertise or high wealth for a whole new group of consumers (Christensen, Anthony and Roth, 2004). In addition to both distinct types, low-end and new-market approaches may also be combined. LCC must be considered as a hybrid disruption by targeting both incumbent airlines' passengers and previous non-air-travelers (Christensen and Raynor, 2003). Disruptive innovation theory suggests that in sustaining circumstances, incumbents almost always prevail, but in disruptive situations, entrants have an advantage over incumbents (Christensen and Raynor, 2003). The reason is that as companies innovate and introduce new products, they typically achieve a higher rate of improvement than what customers can utilize and are willing to pay for. At a certain point, this pace eventually "overshoots" the absorption ability of customers. Whereas disruptive innovations initially underperform customers' expectations, they improve as well and at some point become good enough for the mainstream market. In such situations, customers are more concerned with differences in absolute prices than price/performance points (Adner, 2002). Ultimately, this results in incumbents failing or at least facing considerable inertia in response. So far, failure in resource allocation served as primary explanation for incumbent inertia. Incumbents have little incentive to invest in disruptive innovations because their resource allocation process tends to favor sustaining innovations (Christensen and Bower, 1996). In early 8 Chair of Strategic Management and Organization stages, customers reject disruptive innovation due to their inferior performance. At the same time, disruptive innovations only promise lower returns than investors ask for and hence, will not receive funding (Noda and Bower, 1996). As a result of both concerns, "these companies find it very difficult to invest adequate resources in disruptive technologies – lower margin opportunities that their customers don't want – until their customers want them. And by then it's too late" (Christensen, 2000). More broadly, a conceptual study by Vlaar, de Vries and Willenborg (2005) considered managerial, organizational as well as cognitive psychological research to explain the struggle of incumbents to extract value from new strategic options. Despite not specifically linked to disruptive innovations, the authors suggest five explanation factors for incumbent failure from a literature review: cannibalization, conventional wisdom, corporate inflexibility, incompetence or overconfidence and access to resources. Whereas the initial four factors have a negative influence in the model on incumbents' ability to extract value from new strategic options, the last factor is positively correlated. Whereas initially researchers investigated incumbent inertia as discrete construct, Gilbert unbundled inertia into two distinct categories, namely resource rigidity (failure to change resource investment patterns) and routine rigidity (failure to change organizational processes using those resources) (Gilbert, 2005). Both categories constrain an adequate response, but feature different causal mechanisms. Gilbert focused his research on cognitive frames, especially the framing of the innovation as threat vs. opportunity. In his work, threat perception was associated with negative focus, emphasis on loss and sense of a lack of control. In contrast, positive focus as well as terms like gain or in control were associated with opportunity perception (Gilbert, 2005). 9 Chair of Strategic Management and Organization By this, it was finally possible to explain previously conflicting findings on the effect of threat perception on inertia. Some earlier studies have shown that threat framing increased inertia (Dutton and Jackson, 1987), whereas in other cases it worked as a catalyst for change (Lant, Miliken and Batra, 1992). In his final model, Gilbert illustrates that threat framing helps to unlock resource rigidity, at the same time, however, increases routine rigidity. Opposite to this, framing as an opportunity enables search processes and relaxes routine rigidities, however, may lead to underinvestment and hence resource rigidity (Gilbert, 2006). The discussion about the role of framing in incumbent response provides a link with the impact of executives in organizations. Yet so far, only König et al. (2008) considered a broader range of top management team variables to influence incumbent resource allocation. For this, the authors integrated existing theory from different fields, namely communication science, organizational studies and cognitive psychology and developed a holistic model of ten moderating variables, grouped in message moderators, relationship moderators and top management team moderators. They found that CEO-framing can have a positive influence on organizational resource commitment even if the CEO uses an opportunity framing when communicating with the TMT members. This is counter-intuitive to the theory of Gilbert, who proposed an opportunity frame to overcome routine rigidity, but a threat frame to reduce resource rigidity. Instead, König et al. argue that resource commitment in response to threat or opportunity framing is contingent on the described moderating variables. It is to note that the study represents a conceptual approach, even though the authors are using expert interviews to generate research hypotheses. Moreover, the model only relates to resource rigidity, moderating factors of the CEO- or TMT-framing effect on routine rigidities are not examined. The approach of König et al. is based on the upper echelon model describing strategic choice under conditions of bounded rationality (Hambrick and Mason, 1984). Back then, the authors 10 Chair of Strategic Management and Organization argued that managers' characteristics influence the decisions they make and therefore the actions adopted by the organization they lead. Specifically, their model suggests that due to executives' different psychological and observable characteristics, an objective situation will be perceived in different ways. Consequently, subsequent strategic choices and performance outcomes will vary as well. The first class of psychological characteristics includes values, cognitive models, cognitive style, personality and charisma, locus of control and self-regard. The second class of observable experiences relates to rather tangible information including executive tenure, functional background, formal education, international experience and age. Acknowledging the fact that in practice, executives usually collaborate in teams, we understand TMT as the CEO and the group of top executives involved in the strategic decision making for an appropriate response to the disruption. Upper echelon scholars outlined three conceptual elements of TMT: composition, structure and process (Finkelstein and Hambrick, 1990; Finkelstein, Hambrick and Cannella, 2009). Composition relates to the collective characteristics of TMT members, given by their values, cognitive bases, experiences and personalities. The roles of members and the relationship among those roles define the structure of a TMT. Here, role interdependence represents the degree to which the firm's performance depends on resourceand information-sharing, in addition to other forms of coordination within the TMT. The third major element of TMT is process, referring to the nature of interaction among its members as they participate in strategic decision making. The scholars conclude that all three conceptual elements constitute the social makeup of the TMT. 11 Chair of Strategic Management and Organization OPEN QUESTIONS AND RESEARCH MODEL Still, we find a number of questions unanswered by extant research, which we considered when developing the research framework for this study. First, Gilbert's unbundling of inertia into resource and routine rigidity is highly useful to investigate causes of inertia. Yet we find that underlying explanations for resource rigidity are by far better understood than those for routine rigidity, since Christensen initially did not distinguish between both types and Gilbert's unbundling only occurred eight years after original development of disruptive innovation theory. Therefore, there is a need for additional research to develop such causal factors for routine rigidity. This shall also entail multiple perspectives from strategy, organizational and psychological research disciplines. Second, in our literature review, we found that research on the role of top management team in enabling incumbents to overcome inertia is still rare. So far, only König et al. investigated the role of several TMT dimensions for the impact of CEOframing on resource rigidity. Conversely, the influence of TMT on routine rigidity is entirely unclear yet. The objective is to investigate parameters for design and conduct of TMT, reducing the impact of causes for routine rigidity so that inertia will be lower as one would expect without moderators. Addressing these shortcomings, we developed a research framework from theory, which guided our empirical investigation. First, with regard to causes for routine rigidity, we incorporated findings on the unbundling of inertia into resource and routine rigidity, the moderating role of framing, external influence and structural separation (Gilbert, 2005) as well as evidence on social proof as additional driver for rigidities, i.e., incumbents tend to benchmark with peers and as a result stick with their old business model just like other incumbents do (Enders and König, 2009). Further, we incorporated Vlaar, de Vries and Willenborg's (2005) conceptual study proposing cannibalization, conventional wisdom, inflexibility, incompetence and resource access as categories for incumbent failure. Building on all this, we set out to investigate causes of 12 Chair of Strategic Management and Organization routine rigidity and hence incumbent inertia stemming from various disciplines, incorporating (1) insufficient knowledge, (2) inadequate self-concept, (3) internal/external inflexibility and (4) financial concerns. Insufficient knowledge relates to the extent incumbents are savvy on the nature of the disruption, the industry, customers or competitors, but also on management skills or practices. Self-concept of the incumbent can include the firm's belief on own capabilities and market dominance, manager confidence and openness. Inflexibilities describe the resulting degree of freedom from the embeddedness of the incumbent in a stakeholder network of suppliers, employees, investors, customers and partner firms. Finally, financial concerns include issues like returns of existing and new products, future business development as well as upfront investments. Second, in the major part of this research, we determined how an organization's top management team moderates the influence of these causal factors. In order to disaggregate TMT aspects into more tangible constructs for empirical research, we built upon upper echelons theory. This includes the work of Hambrick/Mason separating observable experiences from psychological factors and Finkelstein et al. subdividing TMT characteristics into its members, its team composition and team interaction. Based on this structure, we outlined TMT moderators along the dimensions of their (1) individual members, their (2) structure as well as (3) process. The member category may include executives' observable experiences, but also psychological characteristics. Structure relates to effects from team composition, size or power distribution. Process finally entails the way members collaborate and interact with each other as both decision-making body and social group. 13 Chair of Strategic Management and Organization METHODOLOGY For this research, we selected a qualitative, case study-based methodology due to the nature of the phenomenon and characteristics of the chosen industry. It features a high likelihood of developing novel theory and permits for later quantitative testing of identified constructs (Eisenhardt, 1989). Case studies are the preferred strategy to investigate our explorative, "how" and "why" type research questions and when the phenomenon is of contemporary character (Yin, 2003). Response strategies to LCC are a contemporary event, since LCC have existed for almost ten years now in Europe, yet in many countries new market entries and new incumbent responses are still unfolding during writing of this article. By including contemporary data such as interviews and observations, case studies are particularly suitable to investigate this phenomenon. In addition, case study research is able to capture the complexity and richness of a phenomenon such as LCC to a higher extent than other research techniques (Schöberl, 2007). All these characteristics of the phenomenon render a case study design more appropriate than laboratory experiments, because the latter separate phenomena from their social contexts (Eisenhardt and Graebner, 2007). Furthermore, characteristics of the chosen airline industry also point towards a case study design. Qualitative interviewing is clearly more practical than a written survey for data collection from senior executives at the apex of incumbents. In addition, the limited overall number of incumbent airlines only permits small-sample techniques. We chose an explorative, multiple-case and embedded case design for the following reasons: First, our primary research objective is exploring and explaining in order to arrive at a better understanding of insufficient and somewhat contradictory previous findings. Second, we selected a multiple case design because neither a critical incidence case from the outset existed given the variety of response patterns by established airlines, nor had we access to a phenomenon previously inaccessible to scientific investigation to develop a revelatory case (Yin, 2003). 14 Chair of Strategic Management and Organization Further, since the investigation is grounded in a framework of existing theory, we considered it necessary to integrate our emergent concepts right away (Eisenhardt, 1989). Third, an embedded case design was preferred due to the need to consider multiple units of analysis demanded by our research questions on causal factors and TMT moderators. We focused the investigation on a single industry to control for extraneous variation (Gilbert, 2002). The disruption of European passenger airlines by LCC occurred in this decade. This allowed us to study a recent, contemporary phenomenon to overcome retrospective bias during interviews (Benewick et al., 1969). Furthermore, the industry's monopolistic or at most oligopolistic structure makes it suitable to investigate incumbent response behavior predominantly related towards entrants' actions. When selecting the cases, we relied on theoretical sampling rather than statistical considerations (Eisenhardt, 1989). To ensure replication logic, cases were investigated sequentially and newly gained insights were replicated accordingly (Yin, 2003). We applied several criteria to sufficiently differentiate the cases among each other: market leadership, differences in response patterns and degree of inertia. In addition, access to executive board members or senior managers directly reporting to the board as interview partners was another prerequisite for sufficient data quality. In the end, our sample includes Austrian Airlines (OS), Lufthansa (LH), Iberia (IB) and British Airways (BA). A brief review of the sample along the mentioned selection criteria shows: All incumbents are market leading in their country, with a share of 40-60% of total intra-European traffic from, to, and within their home market. LH, BA and IB are among the four largest European incumbent airlines (Anonymous, 2009). By including smaller OS in the sample, we aimed to assess the role of less complex organizations with close alliance-links to larger airlines in other countries (e.g., LH). The sum of all cases covers a broad array of response types and inertia periods. LH responded comparably late by founding a LCC subsidiary and differentiating 15 Chair of Strategic Management and Organization high-end services even further. IB initially was highly routine rigid, yet finally chose to found a low-cost subsidiary as well. OS responded with medium inertia, yet could not decide on establishing a LCC subsidiary and rather evaded in a geographical niche positioning. BA responded early with a low-cost subsidiary, yet reverted its strategy later by selling it off and largely retreating from the segment. In this study, we used a multi-method approach to enable triangulation of results from collected data, namely by means of analyzing externally available information, conducting semi-structured interviews with key executives and asking for internal archival documents (Saunders, Thornhill and Lewis, 2003). All materials were collected in a comprehensive case study database. External information included company press releases, annual and quarterly financial reports, investor relations presentations, practitioner conference proceedings, investor and analyst conferences, and press articles from newspapers and magazines. We used those to corroborate and augment evidence from other sources, not as definite recordings of events (Yin, 2003). Explorative interviews with company representatives provided the most important source of data. We conducted 2 pilot interviews for conceptual clarification of the research design, followed by 10 in-depth interviews with executives from all four case companies. The latter included 6 members of the airlines' boards and 4 senior vice presidents directly reporting to the board. 9 interviews were conducted face to face, 1 by telephone. We taped each interview and literally transcribed it within 24 hours. For each discussion, we used a semi-structured interview guide. Typical for theory building research, we continuously adjusted the guide to newly gained information (Strauss and Corbin, 1990). In line with scholarly recommendations, it consisted of both investigative questions and narrative questions (Schnell, Hill and Esser, 2005). Finally, we received several internal archival records, such as a photography of a decision flow chart used during a board workshop. 16 Chair of Strategic Management and Organization For data analysis, we combined evolutionary case write-ups of 20-30 pages using time-series analysis, software-aided structural content analysis based on a scheme of 47 codes across four hierarchical levels, as well as within- and cross-case analysis using pattern-matching technique (Eisenhardt, 1989; Strauss and Corbin, 1990; Yin, 2003; Saunders, Thornhill and Lewis, 2003). Since interviews were conducted sequentially, also the coding scheme was iteratively applied to data. The repeated scan of materials ensured high intra-coder reliability. The idea behind withincase analyses was to become intimately familiar with each case as a stand-alone entity (Eisenhardt, 1989). Cross-case search for patterns avoided leaping to conclusions from limited data through cross-tabbed comparison of constructs for all cases. Finally, we condensed hypotheses and compared those with literature in the field. We took every step to ensure high quality of our research. For sufficient construct validity and to reduce retrospective bias, we used various data sources to triangulate evidence and citations in each case study report, documented evidence in the case study database aiming to maintain a chain of evidence, and asked key informants to clarify open issues or misleading statements after the interviews (Yin, 2003). The theory-informed frame of reference also helped in this (Mayring, 2003). We increased internal validity by applying pattern matching techniques, creating detailed case write-ups (called "thick descriptions" by Miles and Huberman, 1994), conducted multiple iterations and follow-ups and considered both confirming and competing explanations during data collection and analysis (Eisenhardt, 1989). External validity was ensured by the multiplecase research design and comparatively analyzing findings across cases. Further, we applied consistent structures and reference frames across case write-ups, within-case and cross-case analyses (Yin, 2003). Further, we strived for high reliability by including several interviewees per company, creating a detailed case study protocol and extensive case study database. Finally, we followed scientific standards for transcribing and coding of data (Yin, 2003). 17 Chair of Strategic Management and Organization CASE RESULTS AND HYPOTHESES Causal factors for routine rigidity We tested an initial set of causal factors from our literature review in the interviews and identified 12 especially relevant factors causing inertia. Of those, six are new to academic discussion (see Table 1). Table 1: Identified causal factors for incumbent inertia at research sites Austrian Airlines Lufthansa Iberia British Airways Research contribution Group 1: Knowledge insufficiencies C11 Insufficient knowledge on customer preferences ++ ++ ++ ++ (new) C12 Overestimation of entry barriers for new entrants ++ ++ ++ + (new) ++ + + (new) Group 2: Inadequate self-concept C21 Status-oriented belief in current business model + C22 Filtered perception of information ++ + + n/a C23 Insufficient use of external knowledge and support + + + + (confirming) C24 Fear of insufficient capabilities for new business ++ ++ n/a n/a (confirming) (new) Group 3: Internal & external inflexibilities C31 Interdependencies with partners ++ ○ ++ ○ (new) C32 Resistance by stakeholder groups ++ + ++ + (new) C33 Complexity of organization n/a ++ n/a + (confirming) C34 Inadequate employee incentives + + n/a ++ (confirming) Group 4: Financial concerns C41 Fear of cannibalizing the existing business ++ ++ + ++ (confirming) C42 Fear of switching cost to new business model ○ + n/a n/a (confirming) +: contributed to incumbent inertia at research site; ○: no influence; n/a: no evidence; (double signs indicate strong evidence); (new): first to identify increasing effect on routine rigidity; (confirming): in line with extant research Knowledge insufficiencies. First, we found strong evidence on knowledge insufficiencies on customer preferences (C11). At OS, managers missed a change in consumer behavior and believed that the Austrian's great service would avoid business travelers to churn to LCC. With knowledge mainly derived from in-flight surveys and CRM data, OS had inferior knowledge on non-consumers. Similarly, LH initially believed "Germans would never buy those LCC products". Yet also here, the airline admitted that it knew leisure passengers much less than 18 Chair of Strategic Management and Organization business travelers. Managers at IB at first believed customers to share the same level of emotions like them when flying and would never consider LCC, revealing that product-orientation clearly dominated customer-orientation at IB at that time. Likewise, BA expected customers to focus on quality rather than low prices, and was surprised by the increasing number of week-end travelers. These results suggest that airlines were unaware of preferences of large customer groups once LCC emerged, caught by surprise of growing LCC popularity and therefore required considerable time to respond. Existing literature includes only different notions. One found that on industry level, a shared belief on customers, technologies and strategies can exist (Hill and Rothaermel, 2003). Incumbents thereby tend to focus on most profitable customers, who demand further improvements of established products or services (Chandy and Tellis, 2000; Czarnitsky and Craft, 2004). Others argued incumbents would listen "too carefully" to their customers (Christensen and Bower, 1996) or that a lack of knowledge about the disruption leads to routine rigid strategies (Schöberl, 2007). However, our identified knowledge insufficiency does not relate on the quality of the disruption as such, but rather on consumers' preferences and decision criteria. Despite incumbents have broad and preferential access to a large customer base and distribution channels (Chandy and Tellis, 2000), we found that they tend to fail in evaluating minimum acceptable quality standards customers are willing to pay for. This is not to contradict Christensen/Bower by saying that incumbents listen too little to customers, but clearly they are not always asking them the right set of questions. Hypothesis 1: Incumbents frequently have insufficient knowledge on customer preferences and their ranking for decision-making purposes, which ultimately contributes to inertia in response to disruptive innovations. 19 Chair of Strategic Management and Organization Second, there was strong evidence on overestimation of entry barriers for new entrants (C12). OS, for instance, assumed LCC would not be able to enter Vienna airport due to high charges and unfavorable government support, until Air Berlin and NIKI proved the opposite by establishing a base. LH expected Deutsche BA would deter other LCC from entering the market, but TUIfly, Easyjet and Ryanair all expanded including local bases. In Spain, IB believed low internet penetration and intense competition to hinder LCC, yet again reality with now even five competing carriers was different. At BA, evidence was less clear, but still the airline assumed Heathrow and Gatwick as sufficiently protected by slot constraints. Yet at least in Gatwick, LCC now mark the dominant segment. In all cases, the perception of entry barriers made incumbents feel more secure than they actually were and prevented them from launching response measures. Extant literature does not include a discussion of this phenomenon. In our perspective, incumbents, due to their sustaining conduct of business, have not experienced procedures for setting up businesses for long. Consequently, they underestimate the ability of new entrants to overcome presumably high entry barriers and as a result feel overly secure. In the meantime, however, entrants use the time advantage to not only enter marginal segments of the market, but in fact also move up to the established players' core business. Hypothesis 2: Incumbents tend to overestimate entry barriers for disruptive new entrants, making them feel overly secure in their position. As a result, they respond only late to the entrants. Inadequate self-concept. In this group, we discovered two new contributions to academic discussion. First, we identified status-orientation (C21) issues. At LH, a cultural belief of the company as inventor of aviation eradicating every competitor through its size was prevalent. As prestigious national carrier, participating in the LCC model was initially unthinkable. Also OS discarded a response since it believed passengers still thought of air travel as a privilege, and 20 Chair of Strategic Management and Organization business passengers "would never board a LCC". At IB, a manager said the industry was full of emotions and rationality would not always control it, since incumbents were considered as national prestige. Related, BA for long believed that as all-purpose carrier it had to fly to all destinations regardless of profitability. So far, notions in literature focus on the incumbent's role as innovator: Foster (1986) argued conventional wisdom would encourage maintaining focus on the current business and refrain from innovating. Vlaar, de Vries and Willenborg (2005) found overconfidence to lead to a lower ability to extract value from new strategic options. Other scholars stated difficulties from adapting knowledge and mindsets from old business models to the reality of new ones because of established beliefs or "dominant logic" for the firm based on its history (Henderson and Clark, 1990; Tripsas and Gavetti, 2000; Jones, 2003). In our case, we found an even graver issue in status-orientation hindering incumbents not only from innovating, but also from imitating measures that disruptors already took before them. Hypothesis 3: Whenever incumbents show a status-oriented belief in their existing business model, they tend to respond only late to disruptive strategic innovations. Second, we found evidence on filtered perception of information (C22) to cause inertia at three research sites. At OS, statements accounting LCC for substantial losses were politically incorrect. At LH, LCC concerns were initially muted by the belief that since 80% of LCC passengers were British, they would be uncomparable to much less price-sensitive German customers. At IB, the cost gap was in fact much higher than managers believed in 2002, since the "company did not want to listen to bad news". At all sites, these practices eased conflicts and made the current business seem less threatened, thus reducing pressure to find an adequate and swift response. 21 Chair of Strategic Management and Organization So far, scholars elaborated on patterns in organizations to search for and process new information only in general terms, yet not in disruptive contexts. Prahalad/Bettis (1986) argue that organizations' cognitive structures may screen out information by using only information that is adequate or easily available. When attempting to radically innovate, organizational filters make firms less effective, as several other scholars found (Hannan and Freeman, 1984; Henderson and Clark, 1990 and Chandy and Tellis, 2000). Hill/Rothaermel (2003) stated that organizations tend to search only inside their established frames of references, determined by information systems and processes. My findings suggest that in disruptive situations, patterns of screening-out information make the imitation of measures as response to disruptors even more difficult, since they inhibit a stronger and clearer framing of the disruption. Hypothesis 4: Incumbents tend to filter information on new business models, which increases their inertia in response to disruptive innovations. Further, we confirmed existing research on the role of insufficient involvement of external expertise (C23) and concerns of sufficient capabilities (C24) to cause inertia. Internal & external inflexibilities. Here, we found two new explanations for inertia not yet discussed in disruptive innovation literature. First, we identified a restricting effect of interdependencies with partners (C31), and especially in the case of the airline industry, incumbent alliances. We found strong evidence for this at OS and IB, which makes sense given their role as junior partners in Star and Oneworld alliances. OS experienced constraints to modifying its in-flight product and pricing structure due to obligations of alliance communality. IB as well suffered inflexibilities in modifying product quality and sales channels. LH and BA also voiced these requirements for communalities, however, stressed that as dominant airline in the alliances, these had no impact on their responsiveness to LCC. 22 Chair of Strategic Management and Organization So far, scholars only found the embeddedness of incumbents in a value chain network of suppliers, customers and investors to potentially constrain the development of new business models (Ghemawat, 1991; Argyres and Liebeskind, 1999; Christensen, 2000; Nickerson and Silverman, 2003). Restricting effects due to corporate partnerships have not been mentioned. Nickerson (2003) states that contractual commitments may create adjustment cost delaying change. We found similar constraints to reduce the space of response measures, and hence, reduce incumbents' propensity to respond at all. Despite the related underlying mechanisms, alliances between incumbents as constraining factor are new to the scientific discussion. Hypothesis 5: Interdependencies between the incumbent and partner firms in its network (e.g., alliances or joint ventures), may restrict the degree of freedom by which incumbents can respond to the disruption and increase inertia. Second, we found evidence on resistance from stakeholder groups (C32). In many occasions, conflicts with pilots caused major fear among managers. At OS, this made salary cuts difficult, which were necessary to compensate fare discounts. Major strikes in the past at IB caused dread of taking measures that could cause unrest among pilots, resulting in the late launch of its LCC subsidiary. In addition, the public exerted pressure at OS to pursue a high quality strategy, since it still perceived the airline as national prestige. In the case of LH, unions and especially pilots as well resisted an earlier subsidiary launch. At BA, this antagonized workforce so heavily that the board withdrew support for a previously launched subsidiary. Further, BA feared it could lose the support of government for airport expansions if it responded too harsh against LCC. Whereas scholars found that direct shareholders may create uncertainty for TMTs and limit managerial discretion (Hambrick and Finkelstein, 1987), researchers so far have not investigated the influence of stakeholders on the responsiveness to disruptions. Incumbents as larger organizations also attempt to satisfy more stakeholders. Argyres/Liebeskind (1999) found that 23 Chair of Strategic Management and Organization prior contractual commitments, both formal and informal, can limit a firm's future ability to differentiate its governance arrangements. However, our research findings relate to a broader context beyond simply binding commitments. The observed resistance stemmed from various stakeholder groups as a whole, all sufficiently powerful to exert pressure on the organization, e.g., by strikes. Neither of those yet considered the bigger picture behind the response measures they were seeking to stall. Hypothesis 6: Incumbents may face resistance from powerful stakeholder groups inside and outside the organization, whose exerted pressure may constrain the set of available response measures and as a result, increase inertia in response to disruptive innovations. Further we identified explanations for routine rigidity in organizational complexity (C33) and inadequate incentive systems (C34), yet those causes have already been discussed in existing literature. Further, with regard to financial concerns, we confirmed suggestions by previous scholars, namely fears of cannibalization (C41) and switching cost to the new business model (C42) as factors causing inertia (Charitou and Markides, 2003). TMT moderators Most important in our study, we also tested an initial set of moderating factors around incumbents' TMT from our literature review and found 11 especially relevant moderators, reducing the impact of causal factors on inertia. By either identifying new variables or revealing different results to earlier work, we 24 entirely yield new findings (see Chair of Strategic Management and Organization Table 2). 25 Chair of Strategic Management and Organization Table 2: Identified TMT moderators on causal factors at research sites Austrian Airlines Lufthansa Iberia British Airways Research contribution Group 1: Members in TMT M11 Risk propensity –– – –– – (new) M12 Organizational tenure ++ n/a + + (new) M13 Operations experience in industry –– –– – – (new) M14 Disruption experience in same/other industry – n/a n/a –– (new) Group 2: Structure of TMT M21 Heterogeneity of members' backgrounds n/a – –– – (new) M22 CEO authority U U – – (different result) M22mod Risk propensity of CEO amplifying amplifying amplifying amplifying (new) M22 M22 M22 M22 Group 3: Process in TMT M31 Consensus-focused culture M32 Social integration of members M33 Insufficient risk management & scenario planning M34 Decisiveness, determination and persistence n/a + mixed ++ – n/a n/a – (new) ++ n/a n/a n/a (new) – –– –– – (new) (different result) +: increases impact of causal factors; –: reduces impact of causal factors; n/a: no evidence; double signs indicate strong evidence; (new): first to identify increasing effect on routine rigidity; (different result): contradicting to extant research Members of TMT. In this group, we for the first time identified four TMT moderators on inertia. Table 3 shows an example from each case. First, we identified a moderating factor in risk propensity of TMT members (M11). OS did not seize several opportunities to participate in the LCC segment, e.g., by expanding acquired Slovak Airlines. Managers accounted inferior risk propensity for not starting such a venture. Massive changes in board configuration also decreased members' readiness for highly visible response measures. IB explained airlines' strong technology focus to result in an overly conservative, risk-averse culture. A manager also differentiated between financial risk and personal risk: whereas it is comparably easy in the industry to take financial risks by routing and pricing decisions, committing to LCC response measures increases the visibility of the individual manager. At LH, a manager explained the same issue and pointed to the high visibility of deciding for a LCC venture with seemingly small upside and substantial personal downside potential for the manager. Only high individual risk propensity enabled the launch of Germanwings and Lufthansa Italia. For the BA's launch of Go, 26 Chair of Strategic Management and Organization the CEO was credited with high risk propensity and the readiness to overcome resistance in the organization. Table 3: Examples from research sites for identified TMT moderators (group 1) Causal factor Austrian Airlines Lufthansa Iberia British Airways Risk propensity (M11) (– –) "(…) you need entrepreneurs who are really ready to take risks, starting from the board down to the 2nd management level. Only then you are really able to launch non-linear strategic measures." (–) "For a CEO the question is, will I start a new venture with all the attention and reporting in my supervisory board? Germanwings is small - but still you report to the supervisory board, and labor representatives don't think that's funny at all." (– –) "The airline industry was created in a very regulated environment. What was really important was the technical part, creating an overly conservative culture. And if you are in a very conservative culture, you won't change." (–) "Individual members have to show a certain risk propensity. You have to dare such a venture and to have the heart to overcome foreseeable resistance in the organization. That is a personal character trait which must not be underestimated." (+) "I think our management team has been too stable for too many years. And I don't think it's good, you need to move. We need to change every 5 or 6 years, otherwise we'll lose the ability to innovate, to adapt." (+) "Of course, most airliners are people who worked for 20 years in the industry and sat for years in the same position, they are entirely unable to recognize such disruptions. And to respond quickly." (no evidence) Organizational (++) "When you have a change of paradigms, so that tenure (M12) now you will have high passenger numbers but low yields, then it is essential in my view that you implement somebody who brings along this new way of thinking." Operations experience in industry (M13) (– –) "It is fatal if TMT members are too traditional and know aviation only as a passenger in business class." (– –) "It is really important to have a feeling for things, to know what a crisis means, what are the connections, what happened 5 years ago, is this crisis bigger. Especially in a business, relatively sensitive and shortlived like ours." (–) "The board members, if they don't know the industry, it's a complex industry. If you know the industry, you also know how you can filter and how you cannot filter information. I think this works together with the experience." (–) "However, it is clear that you need real experts of the business. Every industry has its specifics and economics. That is absolutely important. But those people are not short in airlines, you find them everywhere." Disruption experience in same/other industry (M14) (–) "The fact that the new CEO already experienced low-cost competition and understood air travel as commodity extremely helped us to launch these measures." (no evidence) (no evidence) (– –) "In hindsight you can say that we should have had such a change agent, able to immediately recognize this. (…) But these outsiders are rare, this is a very networked industry." Grey shade indicates new findings Literature already discussed risk propensity of executives for long, yet rarely in the face of disruptive innovation. Sitkin/Pablo (1992) found that the perceived risk of any given choice is lower for a decision maker with higher risk propensity. Thus, several scholars argue that it distorts decision makers' perceived risk of strategic issues (Brockhaus, 1980; Sitkin and Weingart, 1995). This implies that also for disruptions, varying risk propensity of TMT members leads to different situation judgements. On the direction of this impact on inertia, König et al. 27 Chair of Strategic Management and Organization (2008) found that it moderates resource rigidity: the higher executives' risk propensity, the higher the influence of the CEO-frame on resource commitment. Similar to resource rigidity, we conclude that with high risk-propensity, TMT members perceive any choice that involves a change in business routines as less risky than normatively appropriate. Hypothesis 7: Incumbents with higher risk propensity of their TMT members can expect less impact from causal factors on incumbent inertia and hence, a faster response to disruptive threats. We also found evidence for the influence of TMT members' organizational tenure (M12). Even after privatization at IB, a manager reported that people were "too long in their position" and not suited to take the company from a civil-servant mentality to the reality of LCC. A BA manager also said that people in the industry have been active for 20 years and sat for years in the same position, which made them unlikely to recognize change. At OS, managers similarly complained that employees could not adapt to new high-passenger, low-yield realities and "drove with the back mirror", since they experienced the old business for too long. There is no discussion on the role of organizational tenure in disruptive situations in literature. In general, upper echelon research argues that human beings become less flexible, creative and adaptable the longer they live and work in a constant environment. Miller (1991) found that firms with long-tenured CEOs are less likely to find appropriate strategies and structures matching their environment. Shortly thereafter, Wiersema/Bantel (1992) argued similarly by finding shorter average organizational tenure of all team members to promote strategic change of firms. Finkelstein/Hambrick (1990) also argued that higher tenure TMT members followed more persistent to central tendencies of the industry, since they become increasingly committed to their previous course of action. My findings for disruptive situations do not contradict to those claims. In the face of disruptions, longer organizational tenure of TMT members will reduce 28 Chair of Strategic Management and Organization experimentation and increase focus on existing resources. According to Gilbert (2005), such behaviors ultimately increase incumbent inertia. Hypothesis 8: Higher organizational tenure of incumbents' TMT members increases routine rigidity and inertia in response to disruptive innovations. Third, we found evidence on the role of operations experience (M13). At OS, an interviewee argued that more true knowledge of airline operations in the TMT would have been helpful, since some managers were outsiders and knew the business only "from their own perspective as a business class passenger". It was their influence upon which the company focused on the core business instead of LCC. At LH, a manager also argued that insufficient operations knowledge might lead to misleading judgements of the situation, strategic positioning and economics, i.e., how quickly airlines may accumulate substantial losses. Therefore, it would be crucial to know market mechanisms by heart. At IB, evidence suggested that operations knowledge in the board allowed better information filtering, reducing the impact of this factor. Due to the complexity of network marketing economics of scale, airline expertise is essential for the right response. In summary, operations experience seems to be beneficial, with effects of team heterogeneity disregarded for the moment. In existing literature, this topic is hardly discussed, as only some upper echelon findings on the general role of formal education exist. Finkelstein/Hambrick/Cannella (2009) described the greater the amount of formal education of top executives, the more innovative their firms are. According to them, formal education is concomitant with open-mindedness, information processing abilities and cognitive flexibility. More specific to industry expertise, research is rare – likely since it seems too much common sense whether professional experience is beneficial for organizational outcomes. However, two considerations seem important here: First, the studied airline industry is far more specific than others, and it is difficult for outsiders to acquire a 29 Chair of Strategic Management and Organization business understanding in short time. Second, our findings need to be considered along with the beneficial role of TMT heterogeneity (see discussion on M21 later in this paper). So despite firms should aspire for a heterogeneous TMT, as it will turn out, we argue that maintaining profound industry expertise at the same time by at least one TMT member is paramount. Hypothesis 9: Incumbents who cultivate profound industry expertise in at least one member of the TMT are more likely to understand the disruption earlier and respond to it. Finally, we discovered indicative evidence on prior disruption experience (M14) as TMT moderating factor. At BA, an interviewee argued that the industry is very closed-circuit in terms of manager circulation, yet in fact an outside change manager with experience from disruptions in a different industry, e.g., photocopiers, would have been helpful for a quicker response of BA. A manager at OS argued that the CEO experiencing the LCC disruption before at another airline resulted in a modern belief of air travel as commodity and helped to launch the Redticket response measure. There is no discussion on disruption experience of individual TMT members in academic literature. Only on a corporate level, Burns/Stalker (1961) first discovered firms based in environments with a history of instability as more likely to find more rapid responses to unpredicted events. 40 years later, these findings were confirmed for disruptive situations (Hill and Rothaermel, 2003). On the individual level, which is easier for firms to influence than on the organizational level, findings are more general. Heffernan (2003) argued that a crisis can encourage individuals to step outside the standard set of rules and procedures and to consider how to improve. As a remedy, learning theory suggests that organizations need prior related knowledge to better identify, assimilate and use new knowledge (Cohen and Levinthal, 1990). Since disruptions are new to established firms, we argue that there is a benefit of integrating 30 Chair of Strategic Management and Organization disruption-experienced managers from outside in the TMT. This will increase outside decision influence on decisions and, in line with Gilbert (2005), ultimately improve the organizations' readiness for discontinuous change. Hypothesis 10: Incumbent firms, which feature experience from prior disruptions by at least one TMT member's background, are more likely to respond to disruptions. Structure of TMT. In this group, we identified two new TMT moderators on incumbent inertia and one with results diverging from extant research. Table 4 shows an example for each moderator. First, we found evidence on heterogeneity of members' backgrounds (M21). At IB, a manager called for a mix of experiences in the TMT. In addition to airline experts, backgrounds from multinationals or from other industries would have been "refreshing". Shortly after his appointment, a new CEO with background in steel and tobacco industries announced the launch of a new carrier business model for 2011. LH managers said that whereas teams with common manager backgrounds tended to arrive at similar conclusions, those with multiple backgrounds allowed everybody to ask unconventional, seemingly plain questions. Equally, at BA a manager said that a mix of industry experts and change agents was the best configuration for a fast response to LCC. TMT heterogeneity has not yet been researched in disruptive contexts. More in general in upper echelon research, scholars found diversity in functional background and educational level to promote more innovative strategies (Bantel and Jackson, 1989 and Palmer and Wiseman, 1999). Milliken/Lant (1991) found a lower commitment to the status quo of diverse teams. Wiersema/Bantel (1992) explain that higher educational specialization heterogeneity first increases the diversity of information sources and perspectives. Then, broadening through diversity in cognitive perspectives facilitates adaption of strategic alternatives and hence, change. However, the authors only control for scenarios of growth, profitability and concentration, yet 31 Chair of Strategic Management and Organization not disruptions. As sole contribution for DSI contexts, König et al. (2008) argue that TMT heterogeneity has a positive effect on resource commitment in the face of DSI. As our findings suggest, TMT heterogeneity reduces routine rigidity as well. Hypothesis 11: Incumbent firms with higher heterogeneity of TMT members' functional backgrounds and educational curricula have a higher tendency to respond early to disruptive challenges. Table 4: Examples from research sites for identified TMT moderators (group 2) Causal factor Austrian Airlines Lufthansa Iberia British Airways Heterogeneity of members' backgrounds (M21) (no evidence) (–) "I have a board colleague with a law and political background. I'm rather from operations – how do markets and production platforms work. So I have the freedom to challenge his ideas, he explains things to me and likes to think unconventionally. This was highly helpful to deal with LCC" (– –) "Probably, if you have some experts from other multinationals, from other industries, that could be refreshing. Look, if you come from a highly competitive consumer industry, you are more likely to react to this. So a combination would be good, yes definitely." (–) "Experts can be found everywhere, but the mix is the critical issue. But these outsiders are rare, this is a very networked industry." 1 CEO authority (U) "I believe to recognize these structural disruptions (M22) of industries... that it is rather visionary leaders than somebody who covers the topic. It must be the people from the top. Usually these are charismatic leaders, with high managing power." (U)2 "The CEO needs to be both, authoritarian and integrative. If he's too dictatorial, he chokes off fruitful discussions. If he lets things run, the organization does not feel strategic leadership anymore. So in that sense, both is necessary." (–) "But if you look back into history of this industry, almost in all the cases, successful leaders were leaders, not boards. Individual people. Who had a vision, and the ability to implement that vision." (–) "I remember Stelios permanently critizizing that Go was dominated by BA. And we did heavy PR against that. (…) a waste of time. You need somebody who thumps the table and simply pulls it through." Risk propensity of CEO (M22mod) (amplifying M23) "I am not sure if CEO authority as such is a sufficiently meaningful factor. If the CEO is not ready to take risks, the impact of his authority will only be small." (amplifying M23) "A strong leader helps, but only if the CEO is a very visionary type of personality, not conservative. If the CEO is very conservative, and strong, then nothing changes." (amplifying M23) "So, if the CEO with high authority has a broad spectrum of experiences, then this helps. But when he is a conservative airliner, then this is a problem" (amplifying M23) [low risk propensity increased negative impact of high authority in the case of a particular CEO] Dark grey shade indicates new findings, light grey shade indicates findings contradicting to existing research. 1 Whereas higher CEO authority proved helpful, excessive levels had negative impact on the responsiveness of Austrian. 2 Whereas low and high levels of CEO authority increase incumbent inertia, a medium level relaxes it. Further, we discovered interesting findings on the moderating roles of CEO authority (M22) and CEO risk propensity (M22mod) on inertia. The latter amplified effects of the first. At OS and LH, the effect of CEO authority was U-shaped, meaning that moderate levels reduced inertia, but 32 Chair of Strategic Management and Organization excessively high or low levels in fact increased inertia. Moderate authority of one particular CEO was a catalyst for response. Managers accounted his leadership strength for the mere response measures of the airline. Higher authority of another CEO, however, impeded open discussions on LCC and led OS to re-focus on its core business. Low risk propensity of this CEO even amplified the effect of his strong authority. LH managers argued for the same effect, explaining the negative impact of excessively low levels of CEO authority to result in some disorder, during which the company was not able to agree on a response. However, interviewees pointed to the CEO's risk propensity moderating the effect of his authority. A visionary and risk-seeking CEO will have higher impact. At IB and BA, we found evidence on a positive impact of CEO authority, without evidence on excessive levels. An IB manager pointed out the critical role of the CEO to lead the company through privatization and launch Clickair. At BA, only the CEO's commitment and readiness to take risks helped to launch Go despite concerns in the TMT. In literature, authority of top executives has been discussed in the field of disruptions (Vlaar, de Vries and Willenborg, 2005 and König et al., 2008). These findings differ to mine to the extent that they suggest a positive, linear impact of CEO authority on incumbent responsiveness: Vlaar et al. propose "strong leadership" to energize discussion on renewal within the firm. However, the authors neither define the terminus strong leader, nor provide an empirical verification. König et al. find higher authority to strengthen the CEO's influence on resource commitment. In principle, our findings reiterate the positive influence of CEO authority on incumbent responsiveness. Further, we agree that low levels of CEO authority tend to harm incumbent responsiveness due to a lack of guidance and direction. This may result in lengthy discussion of alternatives, which ultimately may stall decisions (Nooteboom, 1992; Finkelstein, Hambrick and Cannella, 2009). At the same time, however, our findings contrast by suggesting that excessively high levels may also harm incumbent response. In our view, this may induce contraction of authority, which increases routine rigidity according to Gilbert (2005). Therefore, we are 33 Chair of Strategic Management and Organization proposing an inverted U-shaped impact of CEO authority on responsiveness (i.e., a U-shaped impact on inertia). Hypothesis 12: Incumbents led by CEOs with moderate to high authority are more likely to reduce inertia in response to DSI than others. In contrast, excessively high or low levels of authority may increase inertia. We also explain the amplification of the CEO's impact on incumbent responsiveness through his risk propensity. Greater authority and hence lower involvement of other TMT members increases the extent to which purely the CEO determines corporate strategy. So greater risk propensity will not only strengthen his opportunity framing, but also increase his willingness to experiment, ultimately relaxing routine rigidity (Gilbert, 2005). Hypothesis 13: Risk propensity of the CEO amplifies the impact of his or her authority: The more risk-seeking the CEO is, the more higher authority reduces inertia. Process of TMT. Here, we identified another three new TMT moderators on incumbent inertia and one with diverging results from other scholars' findings. Table 5 shows an example for each moderator. First, we found evidence on the role of a consensus-focused culture (M31) negatively impacting incumbent responsiveness. At LH, managers reported from controversial TMT discussions on Germanwings, but explained that conflict was "casted" into LH's organization and helped to question the established way of business. Two former CEOs at BA were both reported to be consensus-focused, and managers attributed the period of inertia before the launch of Go and after its sale to this. More conflict and polarization would have been more helpful to earlier discuss a response to LCC. The CEO of Go was reported as less consensus-focused, which contributed to BA's effective response during that time. 34 Chair of Strategic Management and Organization Table 5: Examples from research sites for identified TMT moderators (group 3) Causal factor Austrian Airlines Lufthansa Iberia British Airways Consensusfocused culture (M31) (impact not identifiable) (+) "It must be possible to have serious discussions. Conflict is casted into our organization. It is essential, without friction you will not be able to question your current business and quickly agree on a response." (mixed impact, some interviewees suggesting conflict to enable making tough decisions, others argued for the benefit of consensus to broader support in implementing decisions) (++) "With our previous CEOs, we had two consensus types. (…) But to decide on major transformations such as LCC, this clogs everything. Since you run into endless discussions and don't progress." Social integration of members (M32) (–) "One from the super(no evidence) visory board wanted to know what really went wrong. I said you don't have to search for long. 5 different board configurations in 7 years, then you don't have to ask further." (no evidence) (–) "We were put together quite randomly and met only for the meetings. Everybody worked a bit only in his domain (…) we should have had a stronger link between the meetings so you can discuss the LCC issue also informally off-topic." Insufficient risk and scenario management (M33) (++) "Our scenario man(no evidence) agement was insufficient. People were not really ready to sit down really open, like this was possible earlier." (no evidence) (no evidence) Decisiveness, determination and persistence (M34) (–) "When you are doing such a hybrid business model, you need to be absolutely consequent within the budget segment. And neither did we see decisions nor actions for this." (– –) "Of course the governance model is important. To have a clear description of route profitability helps what do we accept, what not. More objectivised, less subjective." (–) "Decision paths at BA were always very slow, very tenacious. We believed that if we respond to fast, we cut off our own nose." (– –) "For Germanwings we realized we need strong commitment for a decision, we will do that. Board, group board, and a strong project sponsor, this works. Without this, the discussion ends without decision." Dark grey shade indicates new findings, light grey shade indicates findings contradicting to existing research. Despite there is no specific research on the context of disruptions, our findings differ from other researcher's suggestions on the generally beneficial role of consensus. Before, scholars suggested consensus to result in greater agreement about the organization and its goals, allowing TMT members to coalesce around this shared understanding of what the firm seeks to accomplish (Dutton and Duncan, 1987 and Wiersema and Bantel, 1992). Further, it may lead to team members establishing norms of interaction (Chatman and Flynn, 2001) and according to a broader sharing of information (Finkelstein, Hambrick and Cannella, 2009). In our studies, we suggest another effect to outweigh those benefits: in situations of disruptive change, an overly consensus-focused culture may not sufficiently encourage open discussion in the TMT on 35 Chair of Strategic Management and Organization applicable response measures either, since conflicts are not desired in those cultural environments. However, since the new business model inherently does involve conflicts with the old one, those would constitute obstacles in the decision process. Hypothesis 14: In situations of disruptive change, an overly consensus-focused culture in the TMT increases incumbent inertia. Next, we found evidence for a beneficial impact of social integration (M32) on incumbent inertia. At OS, a manager reported from the difficulties in personal relationship building because of five different board configurations in just seven years. Further, personal tensions between TMT members let some members avoid mutual discussions. At BA, the board met only for meetings. A manager explained that this circumstance discouraged off-topic discussions of controversial issues like the LCC segment. Social integration, defined as "the attraction to the group, satisfaction with other members of the group, and social interaction among the group members" (O'Reilly, Caldwell and Barnett, 1989), has only been scholarly discussed in general contexts. Finkelstein/Hambrick/Cannella (2009) suggest negative effects on team functioning and group performance. Wiersema/Bantel (1992) find greater levels of social integration to reinforce the cohort phenomenon and lead to more effective patterns of communication. These findings compare with other insights on a beneficial role of increasing team tenure (as opposed to organizational tenure, described earlier by M12). Beyond these considerations, our findings suggest a beneficial moderating role of social integration also for disruptive circumstances. Hypothesis 15: A higher degree of social integration of an incumbent's TMT members is beneficial to agree earlier on a response to disruptive strategic innovations. 36 Chair of Strategic Management and Organization Third, we found that insufficient risk management and scenario planning (M33) may increase the effect of factors causing inertia. At OS, time constraints and higher competitive pressure reduced the ability of managers to engage in scenario planning compared to earlier times. Reportedly, it was no longer possible to conduct open-ended discussions on potential response measures, also because authority in the organization contracted. Risk management was overly inflated and unsuited to explore new potentially disruptive threats since managers' willingness to report real risks decreased. This led to misjudgements when arguing for concerns of cannibalization ultimately increasing inertia. In literature, scenario planning has been extensively reviewed, but its role for disruptive situations has not been addressed so far. Schoemaker (1995) proposed scenario planning to discover basic trends and uncertainties, so that managers may compensate for overconfidence and tunnel vision. Fink/Siebe/Kuhle (2004) proposed that companies suppressing uncertainty, complexity and change often fail. Yet research on scenario planning in the wake of disruptions, is rare. Since it aims to draw pictures of seemingly highly unrealistic futures, just like disruptive innovations are ex ante, we consider it highly applicable in this context. The findings in our research confirm that an absence can ultimately increase inertia. Hypothesis 16: Incumbents whose TMT does not sufficiently engage in scenario planning and fails to set-up an adequate risk management system, are more likely to respond late to disruptive strategic innovations. Finally, another new TMT moderator arose from our studies by identifying decisiveness, determination and persistence (M34) to allow overcoming incumbent inertia at all case sites, two of them strong. After hefty discussions at LH, a decision was reached to launch Germanwings and with strong commitment and support from the entire TMT. The "Zukunft Kont" project featured a meaningful concept, however, was reportedly lacking long-term persistence. At IB, an 37 Chair of Strategic Management and Organization interviewee argued for a stronger "governance model" to enforce necessary decisions. Clear KPIs, a consistent reporting format and empowered committees reduce an overly CEO dependant culture and avoid tendencies to ignore increasing threats, for instance, by "simply changing the reporting format once things start not going well". At OS, the TMT discussed LCC, but meetings often "ran off into sand". Once measures were launched, they were often not maintained with sufficient persistence (e.g., when OS deployed larger aircraft against Air Berlin attempting to enter the market). BA experienced a lack of decisiveness stalling response measures due to fears of appearing too harsh against LCC for the government and public. We found only little debate of these issues in extant research. Finkelstein/Hambrick (1990) discussed strategic persistence, yet understood it as maintaining a strategic course of action, implying a focus on the old business model. In contrast, our findings rather relate to persistence after launching response measures, beyond simply experimenting for a while. This is especially relevant since established KPIs do not promote investments in the new business model during resource allocation (Christensen and Bower, 1996). So a firm may later on even question response measures it decided on before. Further, due to incentive conflicts in the short vs. longrun, TMT members may be unwilling to decide on response measures, but excluding the disruption from formal discussion may also not be an option for liability reasons. Hence, more formal standards need to enforce decisions after such discussions. Hypothesis 17: Incumbent firms who formally encourage decisiveness, determination and persistence to TMT decisions can respond quicker to disruptions than others. 38 Chair of Strategic Management and Organization CONCLUSION Overall, the theory developed in this thesis uniquely adds to the understanding of why incumbents experience inertia in response to disruptive strategic innovations and how top management teams may moderate this effect in order to overcome inertia. We were able to develop an integrative model of twelve causal factors driving routine rigidity and eleven TMT characteristics moderating the influence of those (see Figure 1). To identify those, we drew from literature on strategy, psychology and organization theory. In addition, we could link upper echelon research on executive impact and TMT with disruptive innovation theory. We find that the complementary insights from all these bodies of literature do indeed tell a coherent story about incumbent inertia and provide a more holistic perspective. CAUSAL FACTORS TMT MODERATORS Insufficient knowledge EFFECT Members of TMT [c11] Insufficient knowledge on customer preferences (+) [m11] Risk propensity (–) [c12] Overestimation of entry barriers for entrants [m12] Organizational tenure (+) (+) [m13] Operations experience in industry (–) Inadequate self concept [c21] Status-oriented belief in own business model (+) [c22] Filtered perception of information (+) [m14] Disruption experience in same/ other industry (–) Internal/external inflexibility [c31] Interdependencies with partners (+) [c32] Resistance by stakeholder groups (+) [c33] Complexity of organization (+) [c34] Inadequate employee incentives (+) Financial concerns (+) Routine rigidity [c23] Insufficient use of external knowledge & support (+) [c24] Fear of insufficient capabilities for new business (+) Resource rigidity Structure of TMT [m21] Heterogeneity of backgrounds (–) [m22] CEO authority (U) [m22mod] Risk propensity of CEO (amp.)1 (+) Incumbent inertia Process in TMT [m31] Consensus-focused culture (+) [m32] Social integration of members (–) [m33] Risk mgmt. and scenario planning (–) [c41] Fear of cannibalizing the existing business (+) [c42] Fear of switching cost to new business model (+) [m34] Decisiveness, determination and (–) persistence 1 Amplifying impact Figure 1: Integrative framework explaining routine rigidity and TMT moderating characteristics Our findings are highly relevant for the managerial practice to prepare organizations for future disruptive change. We suggest that managers need to consider four areas (see Fehler! 39 Chair of Strategic Management and Organization Verweisquelle konnte nicht gefunden werden.), namely TMT composition (selecting the right type of CEO with medium authority and fair risk propensity, mix industry experts with outsiders and disruption experienced managers, avoid high tenures, appoint a strategy manager and promote social integration of the team), use the right set of tools (apply risk management and scenario technique, consider external advice, use market research to understand non-customers, apply appropriate incentive scheme), role-modeling by leadership (communicate framing of disruption clearly in organization, face stakeholder resistance without distractions, signal employees that firm has sufficient skills to compete, consider contributions of mid-level managers) and corporate culture (promote entrepreneurial and risk-seeking environment, allow controversial discussions, challenge seeming obstacles in alliances, avoid information filtering). Whereas the former two constitute tangible, easier to influence elements, the latter two represent more implicit and harder to change issues. Composition of top management team ▪ Selecting the right CEO with medium authority and fair risk propensity ▪ Mix industry experts, outsiders and disruption experienced managers ▪ Avoid high tenures ▪ Appoint strategy manager ▪ Promote social integration of team Tools ▪ Apply risk management system and scenario technique ▪ Consider outside advice and support from externals ▪ Use market research to understand non-customers ▪ Apply appropriate incentive scheme Tangible elements – Easier to influence Readiness for disruptive change Corporate culture ▪ Promote an entrepreneurial culture to encourage risk taking ▪ Allow controversial discussions – but decide at point X ▪ Challenge seeming obstacles due to partners & alliances ▪ Don’t filter new information Role-modeling by leadership ▪ Frame disruptions as threat or opportunity, but communicate strongly in the organization ▪ Be prepared to face stakeholder resistance without distractions ▪ Signal employees that firm has sufficient skills to compete ▪ Consider contributions of second level managers in decisions Top management team Implicit elements – Harder to influence Entire corporation Figure 2: Recommendations for organizations to prepare for disruptive change 40 Chair of Strategic Management and Organization The generalizability of our propositions is limited by the following constraints: First, the studied incumbents all constituted former state-owned national carriers. This might have made them more apt to routine rigidity, since their routines were not exposed to new competitors and evolved over decades. However, the fact that Europe followed the U.S. example and hence, deregulation did not come at a surprise, counterbalances this effect, since this granted even stateowned incumbents ample time to respond. Second, despite deregulation granted entrant airlines full freedom to offer any services, not all airports were able (due to capacity constraints) or willing (to protect the incumbent carrier) to assign LCC sufficient slots. Therefore, the role of airports might impact generalization across countries and to other industries without such a condition. Finally, managers across the four studied European airlines could have been biased by cultural factors, such as individualism or a different attitude on consensus. Such issues can affect the impact of single moderating factors like consensus or CEO authority and hence, corporate response to disruptive change. Future studies could control for that by using an even larger crossnational sample. Both theoretical implications as well as limitations of this research open avenues for further research. These include quantitative testing of new propositions, detailing the pivotal role of the CEO and investigating TMT power structures. In this article, we developed new theoretical constructs, which would further benefit from large-scale empirical verification. Clearly, some of those are not amenable to extensive quantitative testing. However, we believe that an integrated approach including qualitative field work, quantitative data from surveys and secondary archival information is suitable to verify the causal relationships advanced in this study. Moreover, since the focus of our research deliberately centered on the TMT as a whole, we believe it is worthwhile for future researchers to specifically investigate the role of further individual CEO characteristics in disruptive contexts and, for instance, to determine the effect of narcissism, age, previous professional experiences or formal education. Finally, findings of our work indicate to 41 Chair of Strategic Management and Organization the relevance of both individual and group characteristics of the TMT for a firm's ability to overcome inertia. Apart from the CEO position, we had no evidence of asymmetric power distribution. Nevertheless, such situations may still exist, when for instance heads of business units, functional heads or sub teams have different levels of influence on decision-making. Therefore, future researchers could investigate the role of power structures in heterogeneous TMT for disruptive situations. Building on leader life cycle theory (Hambrick & Fukotomi, 1991), we examined the relationship between CEO tenure and performance for German CEOs. For short-tenured and for long-tenured CEOs respectively, we found an inverted curvilinear relationship between the tenure of a CEO and company performance. In general, our results are in line with earlier research on the leader life cycle (Hambrick & Fukotomi, 1991; Miller & Shamsie, 2001; Giambatista, 2004; Henderson, Miller & Hambrick, 2006). Unlike past research in the field, however, we did not find a uniform leader life cycle. Rather the results of our study draw a more differentiated picture of CEO life cycles. Specifically, we found that CEOs with long and short tenures possess different leader life cycles. This finding, however, does not completely contradict earlier research in this field. Other studies indicate support for these findings as well. Henderson, Miller and Hambrick (2006), for example, found two different life cycles for CEOs working in dynamic and stable industries respectively. In Giambatista’s (2004) life cycle analysis of basketball coaches in the United States, the development of sample means showed a clear performance dip at about medium tenure. Nevertheless, our study is the first one that explicitly differentiated between long- and shorttenured CEOs and found distinct life cycles for both groups. Furthermore, this is the first study that explicitly examined the role of power dynamics on the leader life cycle. 42 Chair of Strategic Management and Organization The specific results concerning life cycles of long- and short-tenured CEOs reflect and confirm our hypotheses. For long-tenured CEOs we found evidence that supports the view of institutional theory. In the first years of a CEO’s tenure performance rose slowly. After CEOs had established their power base, performance increased resulting from higher legitimacy. In accordance with the assumption that long-tenured CEOs tend to stick to outdated routines, we found that after a certain time performance decreased again. Unlike prior research (Katz, 1982; Giambatista, 2004), we found no significant performance dip in year four. In our case a minor performance decline is found in year three of the lifecycle of long-tenured CEOs. From year two to year four, the sample means show a certain performance stagnation. Hambrick and Fukutomi (1991) mention that in executive life cycle stages variations are possible. Indeed, especially the second stage, experimentation of managers, might not implicitly lead to increased performance. After his response to mandate, which is associated with performance increases and growing power, the manager has the possibility of testing different approaches and methods. Our results show that long-tenured CEOs make extensive use of this experimentation stage. This pays off in form of increasing performance after year 6. Like in the case of long-tenured CEOs, our hypothesis of an independent lifecycle could also be confirmed for short-tenured CEOs. As we assumed, CEOs in highly demanding environments delivered exceptional performance at the beginning of their tenure followed by a strong decline. Nevertheless, in our case the decline, especially from year three to year four, is exceptionally strong. None of the previous studies found such a negative tendency at the end of a CEO tenure (e.g. Henderson, Miller & Hambrick, 2006; Giambatista, 2004; Miller & Shamsie, 2001). Thus, a more differentiated analysis of short tenures seems necessary, particularly since in corporate practice a tendency towards shorter CEO tenures can be observed (Karlsson, Neilson & Webster, 2008). 43 Chair of Strategic Management and Organization Finally, we found that in general, a longer CEO tenure leads to higher firm performance. Although in the first two years short-tenured CEOs outperform their longer tenured counterparts, in the long run CEOs, who are given more time to develop their paradigms and gain legitimacy, have a more positive influence on performance. With regard to the huge losses which we observed at the end of a short-term tenure, companies should aim at keeping their CEOs for a longer time period. In spite of our innovative findings, our study has a few limitations. We acknowledge, for example, that further organizational as well as CEO characteristics may influence the relationship between CEO tenure and performance. Hence, future researchers should work to imply other promising moderating variables in their model. Moreover, we have addressed the importance of context by incorporating the role of pre-performance for leader life cycles. Beside pre-performance especially industry dynamics determine organizational environment. While this issue is of special interest, e.g. with regard to performance pressure, we regret that we could not address it due to data limitations. Finally, the core outcome of the investigation was the discovery of long- and short-tenured CEO lifecycles based on arguments from institutional and circulation of power perspective. As both theories address the question of power distribution in firms, the inclusion of more variables which reflect power in companies would have been useful to support our assumptions about power struggles and perpetuation of power. 44 Chair of Strategic Management and Organization REFERENCES Adner, R. (2002): "When are Technologies Disruptive? 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(1992): Top Management Team Demography and Corporate Strategic Change. In: Academy of Management Journal, 35, 91-121. Yin, R. K. (2003): Case Study Research. Thousand Oaks, CA: Sage Publications. 53 Chair of Strategic Management and Organization Contact: HHL – Leipzig Graduate School of Management Chair of Strategic Management and Organization Address: Jahnallee 59, 04109 Leipzig, Germany Phone: +49-341-9851675, Fax: +49-341-9851679 E-mail: [email protected] Webpage: strategy.hhl.de 54
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