Cycle Turn Indicator Direction and Swing Summary
of Select Markets as of the close on
March 6,2015
Market
Industrial
Transports
NDX
S&P Inverse Fund
CRB Index
Gold
XAU
Dollar
Bonds
Crude Oil
Unleaded
Natural Gas
Daily CTI Daily
Swing
Negative
Negative
Negative
Positive
Positive
Negative
Negative
Positive
Negative
Negative
Negative
Positive
High
High
High
N/A *
Low
High
High
Low
High
High
High
Low
Weekly
CTI
Weekly
Swing
Negative
Negative
Positive
Positive
Positive
Negative
Negative
Positive
Negative
Positive
Positive
Positive
Low
High
Low
High
High
High
High
Low
High
Low
Low
High
*Since this fund is quoted at the end of the day it is impossible for the concept of swing highs and
lows to apply on a daily level. The primary interests here are the weekly developments.
The daily is representative of the short-term and the weekly is representative of the intermediate-term
© Copyright 2015 by Tim Wood
Short-term Updates
Note on the Cycle Turn Indicator
The most important indicator we have is the Cycle Turn Indicator and the most important timeframe,
at least in my mind, is the intermediate-term. This indicator has proven itself time and time again. In
reality, this is all we really need to know. Everything else is secondary. That being said, please be
sure to monitor the "Cycle Turn Indicator Direction and Swing Summary" above. Red indicates that a
swing high and down turn of the Cycle Turn Indicator has occurred and lower prices should follow. The only exception here is that on the daily stock market signals we also want to see both the slow
cycle Turn Indicator and the New High/New Low Differential in agreement with the original Cycle
Turn Indicator, which is what is covered in this summary above. Yellow, is cautionary meaning that
the Cycle Turn Indicator and the swing are not in agreement, which is typically indicative of a trend
change. Green, means that a swing low has occurred and that the Cycle Turn Indicator is positive,
which should be followed by higher prices. Again, the only exception here is the daily stock market
signals in that we want to see both the slow Cycle Turn Indicator and the New High/New Low
Differential in agreement with the original Cycle Turn Indicator, which is what is covered in this
summary above. For everything else, all that matters is the formation of a swing and the direction of
the Cycle Turn Indicator. All subscribers who do not understand cyclical translation should click here "Notes for New
Subscribers." It is important that you read and understand the content found in both of the PDF files
that you will find at this link. © Copyright 2015 by Tim Wood
March 8, 2015
Stocks
End of Week Weekly Indicator Summary Daily Indicator Summary Intermediate-Term Neutral/Sell
Short-Term Sell
Primary Indicators Primary Indicators Formation of a Weekly Swing Low Bullish
Formation of a Daily Swing High
Bearish
Cycle Turn Indicator (CTI)
Bearish
Cycle Turn Indicator (CTI)
Bearish
Slow Cycle Turn Indicator (CTI)
Bearish
CTI on Rydex Tempest Fund
Bullish
New High/New Low Differential
Bearish
Confirming Indicators
Confirming Indicators
Trend Indicator (TI)
Bullish
Trend Indicator (TI)
Bearish
Advance/Decline Issues Diff
Bearish
McClellan Intermediate Term Breadth Bearish
New High New Low Diff
Bearish
Momentum Oscillator (ITBM)
Secondary Indicators
McClellan Intermediate Term Volume Bearish
5 3 3 Stochastic
Bearish
Momentum Oscillator (ITVM)
Cycle Momentum Indicator
Bullish
McClellan Summation Index
Bearish
*When this indictor is Bullish it is negative for the McClellan Volume Summation Index
Bearish
market and visa versa.
Secondary Short Term Indicators
5 3 3 Stochastic
Bearish
Cycle Momentum Indicator
Bearish
Trading Cycle Oscillator
Bearish
Momentum Indicator
Bearish
Ratio Adjusted McClellan Oscillator
Bearish
Crossover
Accumulation/Distribution Index
Bearish
Our expectation has been for the current trading cycle top to coincide with the intermediateterm cycle top and that the decline into the intermediate-term cycle low should still lie ahead.
This appears to be exactly what is unfolding. While the public has been rabidly bullish in
association with the recent advance to new highs, we have watched the current setup as it quietly
fell into place. The extent of the developments in association with this intermediate-term cycle
top remains to be seen. Make no mistake that because the seasonal cycle low last bottomed in
October, this intermediate-term cycle top marks an opportunity for a seasonal cycle top in 6
months or less, which would in turn have more ominous consequences. Please understand that I
am not saying this has happened, but nor am I saying that it hasn’t. There is simply not enough
evidence to know at this point. The point I’m trying to make here is that this is a first step in
what is an unquestionable opportunity for a major turn in association with these higher degree
cycle tops. Whether or not this opportunity is fully capitalized on is currently unknown and it
© Copyright 2015 by Tim Wood
will be the structural evidence in association with the next intermediate-term cycle advance that
is key in regard to the potential higher degree developments. Regardless, for now, the market is
again at an important crossroads.
In any event, the price action this past week completed the formation of a weekly swing high that
was confirmed by a downturn of the weekly Cycle Turn Indicator on the Transports, the NYSE
Composite, the S&P 500, the Dow Jones Top 10, the Wilshire 5000 and the Dow Jones World
Index to mention a few. As a result, intermediate-term sell signals were triggered on those
indexes and averaged. It is because the Industrials moved to another new high this past week
before reversing lower that a weekly swing high was not completed on the Industrials. But, in
spite of that fact, the overall evidence is suggestive of the anticipated intermediate-term cycle top
and consequently the decline into the intermediate-term cycle low should be at hand. This will
be official next week if we see the completion of a weekly swing high on the Industrials. Let me
again stress that this intermediate-term cycle top marks an opportunity for the higher degree
cycle tops and for something more to develop. But, confirmation of the higher degree tops
cannot occur until we see the proper structural developments, which is not likely to occur until
the next intermediate-term cycle advance.
The Trading Cycle Oscillator in the upper window remains below its trigger line. The
Momentum indicator remains below its zero line. The 5 3 3 stochastic remains negative. The
Trend Indicator has turned below its trigger line, which is suggestive of both the trading and the
intermediate-term cycle top. The first of our Primary Short-Term Indicators is the New High
New Low Differential, plotted with price, which also remains negative.
© Copyright 2015 by Tim Wood
The Three Primary Short-Term Indicators are the Original and the Slow Cycle Turn Indicators,
both plotted below, and the NYSE New High/New Low Differential, plotted with price above.
Bottom line, every indication is that we have seen the anticipated top, that the decline into the
trading and intermediate-term cycle low should be underway and this short-term sell signal will
remain intact until another daily swing low is formed and confirmed by an upturn of ALL Three
of the Primary Short-Term Indicators.
© Copyright 2015 by Tim Wood
Both the Intermediate Term Breadth Momentum Oscillator and the Intermediate Term Volume
Momentum Oscillator remain below their trigger lines.
© Copyright 2015 by Tim Wood
The McClellan Oscillator and Summation Indexes are also used to measure the intermediateterm internals. The Ratio Adjusted McClellan Oscillator in the upper window is shorter-term in
nature and is therefore used to help identify the shorter-term tops and bottoms, but is also useful
in identifying intermediate-term cycle tops and bottoms. Both the McClellan Summation Index
and the McClellan Volume Summation Index remain negative. The Ratio Adjusted McClellan
Oscillator, in the upper window, remains negative and the lack of downside divergence tells us
that this decline is likely just getting underway.
© Copyright 2015 by Tim Wood
The intermediate-term indicator remains below its trigger.
© Copyright 2015 by Tim Wood
Our weekly chart of the Industrials is next. As I explained above, we did not see the completion
of a weekly swing high here this past week because the Industrials moved to a new high before
reversing lower. But, based on the weight of the evidence and the developments seen with the
other averages, every indication is that we should now have the intermediate-term cycle top in
place. Further confirmation of this will come in the coming week if 18,288.63 is not bettered and
if 17,825.15 is violated. More on the developments at this level as the evidence presents itself.
© Copyright 2015 by Tim Wood
Gold
End of Week Weekly Indicator Summary Daily Indicator Summary
Intermediate-Term Sell
Short-Term Sell
Primary Indicators Primary Indicators Formation of a Weekly Swing High
Cycle Turn Indicator (CTI)
Confirming Indicators
Trend Indicator (TI)
Cycle Momentum Indicator
Secondary Indicators
Bearish
Bearish
Formation of a Daily Swing High Bearish
Cycle Turn Indicator (CTI)
Bearish
Confirming Indicators
Trend Indicator (TI)
Bearish
Cycle Momentum Indicator
Bearish
Secondary Short Term Indicators
5 3 3 Stochastic
Bearish
Bearish
Bearish
5 3 3 Stochastic
Bearish
As a result of the short-term sell signal that was triggered on March 3rd we have been operating
under the assumption that we had a left-translated trading cycle at play. I also said that we must
also assume that we were seeing the final push down into the intermediate-term cycle low, which
should now bottom in conjunction with the next trading cycle low. With the violation of the
February 24th low, this is all proving correct. The timing band for the next trading cycle low
runs between March 20th and April 3rd. This short-term sell signal will remain intact until
another daily swing low is formed and confirmed by an upturn of the daily CTI, plotted with
price. Until price moves into the timing band for the trading cycle low, any bounce should be
followed by lower prices into the trading and intermediate-term cycle low.
© Copyright 2015 by Tim Wood
Next is our weekly chart of gold. The timing band for the intermediate-term cycle low runs
between February 27th and April 17th. The next opportunity for this low will come with the
next trading cycle low and the expectation is that it will. If the advance out of the coming
trading cycle low completes the formation of a weekly swing low, we should prove to have the
intermediate-term cycle low in place at that time.
© Copyright 2015 by Tim Wood
Dollar
End of Week Weekly Indicator Summary Daily Indicator Summary
Intermediate-Term Buy
Short-Term Buy
Primary Indicators Formation of a Weekly Swing Low Bullish
Cycle Turn Indicator (CTI)
Bullish
Primary Indicators Formation of a Daily Swing Low
Cycle Turn Indicator (CTI)
Bullish
Bullish
Confirming Indicators
Trend Indicator (TI)
Bullish
Confirming Indicators
Trend Indicator (TI)
Bullish
Bullish
Cycle Momentum Indicator
Bullish
Bullish
Secondary Indicators
5 3 3 Stochastic
Bullish
Cycle Momentum Indicator
Secondary Indicators
5 3 3 Stochastic
The timing band for the now due trading cycle low runs between February 27th and March
13th. Based on this phasing and the current oscillator picture, once a daily swing high is formed
and confirmed by a downturn of the daily Cycle Turn Indicator, plotted with price, we should
have the trading cycle top in place. A daily swing high will be completed on Monday if 97.75 is
not bettered and if 96.32 is violated. If the decline into this trading cycle low does not complete
the formation of a weekly swing high, then that should serve as evidence that we have in fact
seen the intermediate-term cycle low, which in turn will mean that we have just begun a new
intermediate-term advance.
© Copyright 2015 by Tim Wood
The price action the week of February 27th completed the formation of a weekly swing low.
With the continued advance this past week turning the weekly Cycle Turn Indicator, plotted
with price, up, an intermediate-term buy signal was triggered and every indication now is that
the intermediate-term cycle low occurred the week of February 6th. Again, confirmation of this
will come if the decline out of the now due trading cycle top does not complete the formation of a
weekly swing high. For now, we have an intermediate-term buy signal and the assumption is
that we have seen the intermediate-term cycle low.
© Copyright 2015 by Tim Wood
Bonds
End of Week Weekly Indicator Summary Daily Indicator Summary
Intermediate-Term Sell
Short-Term Sell
Primary Indicators Primary Indicators Formation of a Weekly Swing High Bearish
Formation of a Daily Swing High Bearish
Cycle Turn Indicator (CTI)
Bearish
Cycle Turn Indicator (CTI)
Bearish
Confirming Indicators
Confirming Indicators
Trend Indicator (TI)
Bearish
Trend Indicator (TI)
Bearish
Cycle Momentum Indicator
Bearish
Cycle Momentum Indicator
Bearish
Secondary Indicators
Secondary Short Term Indicators
5 3 3 Stochastic
Bearish
5 3 3 Stochastic
Bearish
The expectation has been that there should ideally be another trading cycle down into the
higher degree intermediate-term cycle low. As a result of the short-term sell signal that was
triggered on Monday, every indication was that this expectation was coming to fruition. As a
result of the violation of the February 18th trading cycle low, both this expectation and the failed
and left-translation of the trading cycle have been confirmed. The timing band for the next
trading cycle low runs between March 11th and April 1st.
© Copyright 2015 by Tim Wood
Our weekly chart of bonds is next. The intermediate-term sell signal and decline into the
intermediate-term cycle low remains intact. The timing band for the intermediate-term cycle
low runs between February 27th and May 22nd. Based on this timing band, we should expect to
see the intermediate-term cycle low in conjunction with either the coming trading cycle low or
the next. Once the coming trading cycle low is made, the key to the intermediate-term cycle low
will be whether or not the advance out of the trading cycle low completes the formation of a
weekly swing low.
© Copyright 2015 by Tim Wood
Crude Oil
The price action on Friday completed the formation of a daily swing high that was confirmed by
a downturn of the daily Cycle Turn Indicator. In doing so, a short-term sell signal was triggered.
With the March 5th daily swing high occurring at a level below the February 17th daily swing
high, this sell signal and the current structure puts the intermediate-term advance back at risk
of failing. For now, this short-term sell signal will remain intact until another daily swing low is
formed and confirmed by an upturn of the daily CTI. A daily swing low will be completed on
Monday if 48.88 holds and if 51.22 is bettered.
© Copyright 2015 by Tim Wood
The intermediate-term advance out of the January 29th low remains intact, but it is still not
taking advantage of its opportunity to bounce and as explained above it is again at risk of failing.
If the decline associated with the current short-term sell signal completes the formation of a
weekly swing high that is confirmed by a downturn of the weekly Cycle Turn Indicator, then we
will at that time have an intermediate-term sell signal and we will have to assume that the
intermediate-term advance has then failed. On the other hand, if another daily swing low and
short-term buy signal is generated before a weekly swing high is formed, then the intermediateterm advance will then have another chance. A weekly swing high will be completed if 46.67 is
violated, prior to a bettering of 54.24.
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© Copyright 2015 by Tim Wood