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EuropeasaGlobalActor-Terrorism&Security
ACri&calAssessmentoftheEuropeanCulturalApproachtoCounterTerrorism
Lisbon, 24 May 2016
Marco Marsili
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AsecureEuropeinabe<erworld:
2003EuropeanSecurityStrategy
“Europehasneverbeen
soprosperous,sosecure
norsofree.Theviolence
ofthefirsthalfofthe20th
Centuryhasgivenwayto
aperiodofpeaceand
stabilityunprecedentedin
Europeanhistory”.
AsecureEuropeinabe/erworld.EuropeanSecurityStrategyproposedbyEUHighRepresentaDveJavier
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SolanaandadoptedbytheHeadsofStateandGovernmentattheEuropeanCouncilof12December2003.
ResultsofSecurityandDefencePolicy
atthe&meofal-Qaeda
Madridtrainbombings,11March2004:191deaths
LondonaPacks,7July2005:56deaths
includingthefourperpetrators
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EUCounter-TerrorismStrategy2005
Source:CounciloftheEuropeanUnion,2005
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ResultsoftheEUCounter-TerrorismStrategy
atthe&meoftheIslamicState
Île-de-France,aPacks(CharlieHebdoshooDng),7-9January2015:
17vicDmsand3perpetrators,
ParisaPacks,13-14November2015:130vicDmsand7
perpetrators.
ZaventemAirport,22March2016:32
vicDmsand3perpetrators
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Thelonewolf&theforeignfighters
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Thelonewolf
Defini&ons
•  Individualsorasmallnumberof
individualswhocommitanaPack
insupportofagroup,movement,
orideologywithoutmaterial
assistanceorordersfromsuch
group(Simon,2013)
•  Individualswho,following
radicalisaDon,decidetocommita
terroristaPackontheirown
(Jordan,2014)
•  Individualspreviouslyunknown
tosecurityandintelligence
services(Europol,2015)
•  TerroristsacDngalone(EU,2015)
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LostsonsofEurope:
born,raisedandradicalisedinEurope
Madridbombings1985&2004:
MustafabinAbdal-Qadir
SetmariamNasar(AbuMusab
al-Suri),SpanishciDzen
LondonaPacks2005:4UKciDzens
Norway2011:AndersBehringBreivik
Nonreligiouslyinspiredterrorist
Paris2015&Brussels2016:10French,6Belgian,1Swedish
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TerrorismintheEUisnotonlya
phenomenonlinkedtoreligion
Numberofsuspectsarrestedforreligiouslyinspiredterrorism2010to2014.
Source:Europol,EuropeanUnionTerrorismSitua;onandTrendReport2015.
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Lonewolves
EUTerroristincidentsin2014
281 attacks in the UE:
11 in France (4%), 1 in Belgium (4%)
28 deaths in the EU:
1 in France (4%), 4 in Belgium (0,4%)
Terroristincidentsoccurredin2014
Deaths2014
4
1
11
EU
281
EU
1
France
France
Belgium
Belgium
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11
Lonewolves
EUterroristincidentsin2015
153 deaths in the EU:
147 in France (96%), none in Belgium
281 attacks in the UE:
10 in France (50%), none in Belgium
Terroristincicentsoccurredin2015
0
Deaths2015
147
0
5
EU
EU
France
France
Belgium
153
Belgium
10
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Lonewolves
EUterroristincidentsin2016
7 attacks in the UE:
3 in France (43%), 1 in Belgium (14%)
34 deaths in the EU:
32 deaths in Belgium (94%), none in France
Terroristincidentsoccurredin2016
Deaths2016
32
1
34
3
EU
EU
France
France
Belgium
Belgium
7
0
DatabyApril2016
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Lonewolves
EUterroristincidentsin2014-2016
Numberofterroristincidents
Deathsoccurred
350
350
300
300
250
250
200
Belgium
200
Belgium
France
150
EU
France
150
100
100
50
50
0
EU
0
2014
2015
2016
Period:1/1/2014-30/4/2016
2014
2015
2016
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TheriseofforeignfightersintheSyrianconflict
(2011-2016)
Overallforeignfighters2011-2016
40000
35000
Overallforeignfighters2014-2015
30000
2011-2015
2011-2015
2011-2016
25000
June2014
2016
30000
20000
25000
20000
15000
15000
10000
10000
5000
5000
0
0
TheSoufanGroup,2015
IEP,2015
McGurk,2016
ICRS,2015
McGurk,2016
ConflictsinMuslimcountries:1980tomid-2010,~10,000-30,000foreignfighters.
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Afghanistan:1980s,~5,000–20,000foreignfighters(Hegghammer,2011).
TheEUresponse
•  CriminaljusDce
•  ExchangeofsecurityinformaDonthrough
EuropolandEurojust
•  Schengenareaexternalborderscontrol
(Frontex)
•  Internetcensorship
•  PassengerNameRecord(PNR)
•  Moneylaunderingmeasures
AccordingtoTheSunonSundayinjustthreemonths
thelonewolfmanualreleasedbya-QaedainSpring
2013hasbeendownloaded55,000Dmes(4,000Dmes
inaweek)usingUKIpaddress.
Noneedmoneytomakehome-madebombs
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TheriseofEUforeignfightersinthe
Syrianconflict(2011-2015)
6000
2011-2015
2011-Dec2015
2011-2015
5000
4000
3000
2011-June2014
2000
1000
0
TheSoufanGroup,2015
IEP,2015
Europol,2015
AccordingtotheTSGForeignReport,byJune2014about2,500EuropeanstravelledtoSyriatojoinjihadigroups.Thisnumber
doubledbyDecember2015.FrenchauthoriDesesDmatesabout1,800peoplewholelFrancetojointhejihadigroupsinSyria;
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760fromtheUK;760fromGermany;470fromBelgium.
Es&matednumberofEUforeignfightersin
SyriaandIraqbycountryoforiginin2014
Source:MunichSecurityReport2016.
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EUforeignfighters:
Belgiumtopcontributorperinhabitant
Source:TheInternaDonalCentrefortheStudyofRadicalisaDonandPoliDcalViolence(ICSR),2015.
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TopEUforeignfighterscontributors
Source:TheInternaDonalCentrefortheStudyofRadicalisaDonandPoliDcalViolence(ICSR),2015.
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Urbanfighters
Ø  90-100%offoreignfighterslive
inurbanareasin5EUStates
thataccountfor9%oftotal
Europeanvolunteers(Belgium,
France,Germany,andthe
UnitedKingdom)
Ø  Over30%offoreignfighters
originatefromlarge
metropolitanareasor
peripheralsuburbsof9
countries(Austria,Belgium,
Bulgaria,Denmark,France,
Germany,theNetherlands,
Spain,andtheUnitedKingdom)
Ø  AccordingtotheTSGForeign
ReportbyDecember20151,800
fighterscomefromFrance,760
fromtheUK,760from
Germany,470fromBelgium.
Source:TheForeignFightersPhenomenoninthe
EuropeanUnion.Profiles,Threats&Policies,2016.
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ThePariscase
Sta&s&caldemographicsplanofParisandtheÎle-de-Francerégion
Ø  Parisisthefilhlargest
municipalityintheEuropean
Union
Ø  Parisisthemostdensely
populatedcityintheEU:21,616
people/Km2withinthecitylimits,
withthreedepartmentswitha
populaDondensityofover
10,000people/Km2
Ø  Parisisthesecondmost
populousmetropolitanarea
Ø  Parisisamongthetenmost
denselypopulatedareasofthe
EU(EU-28populaDondensity
116.3inhabitants/Km2)
Ø  ParisandtheÎle-de-France
region-sincethe1stJanuary
2016reunitedunderthenew
MetropolisofGreaterParis-
hostsoneofthelargest
concentraDonsofimmigrantsin
Europe.
Source:Eurostat,2014accordingto2012Frenchcensus
Source:J.M.Schomburg,2006 22
Anurbancontext
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Source:INSEE,FrenchNaDonalInsDtuteofStaDsDcsand
EconomicStudies,2012censusdata
Île-de-France:12millionpeople(18.2%FrenchpopulaDon)
Parismetropolitanarea:12,341,418people(1/5FrenchpopulaDon)
Parisurbanarea:10,5millionpeople(includingsuburbs)
Pariscity:2,5millionpopulaDon
Immigrantsaccountfor18%ofthepopulaDonoftherégionparisienne,
threeDmesthatoftheprovince(7%)
Île-de-France:2,161,000immigrantsand1,531,000foreignersresidents
Parisurbanarea:38%ofimmigrants(2.2millionpeople)and17%ofnonimmigrants(10.2millionpeople)
Between2009and2013,morethan32%immigrantsarrivinginFranceare
havesePledintheÎle-de-Franceregion
Inmetropolitanareaslive2,637,170(46,2%)ofoverallimmigrant
populaDonlivinginFrance
Halfofthe5,716,220immigrateslivinginFranceareresidentsinthis
suburbs(thebanlieus)
Eightoutoftenimmigrantsliveinmajorurbancenters,againstsixoutof
tennon-immigrants
Pariscity:22,4%ofallimmigrantslivinginÎle-de-France
ThebanlieuesoftheurbanareaofParisarethehometo1,591,260
immigrates(27,8%ofallimmigrateslivingintheParisurbanarea)
Parisregion:627,078residentsimmigrantsfromtheMaghreb,435,339
fromsub-SaharanAfricaandEgypt,69,338fromTurkey
Pariscity:135,853residentsimmigrantsfromtheMaghreb,70,852from
sub-SaharanAfricaandEgypt,5,059fromTurkey
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Thestranger
Francehas65.2millioninhabitants,ofwhich5.7millionimmigrants
Source:Insee,2012census
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MapofmedianannualsalaryrevenuesinEurosinParis
andsomeParisiansuburbs
Source:20minutesof11December2007,accordingtoINSEEandAPUR(AtelierParisiend'Urbanisme)
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Therootsofradicalisa&on&thepathtoterrorism
Sociologicalperspec&ve
•  Islamisapretextforthe
manifestaDonofviolent
tendenciesthroughterrorist
acts
•  Manyjihadistsareproneto
violenceorhaveacriminal
record
•  Expressionofcontrasts
betweenpopulaDonslike
footballviolenceor
metropolitangangs
•  SearchofasharedidenDtyto
getoutofanonimityandfeel
partofacommunity(the
Ummah)
Socio-economicperspec&ve
•  poverty
•  prejudice
•  marginalizaDon
•  socialexclusion
•  unemployment
•  economicinequality
•  underdevelopment
•  insecurity
•  disease
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Ridersofthelostiden&tyintheurbanjungle
Ø  GeographicalfactorsplayacriDcalrole(CollierandHoefler,2007)
Ø  Inthemetropolistheresistanceoftheindividualtobeinglevelled,swallowedup
(Simmel,1903)
Ø  Thestranger'sacDvityisolenviewedasanunpleasantbynaDvemembersof
socieDes(Simmel,1908)
Ø  Socialinequalityreflectsnaturalinequality(Durkheim,1893)
Ø  Consciousness(norms,beliefsandvalues),whichformthemoralbasisofthe
society,holdingittogetherandresulDnginsocialintegraDon(mechanical
solidarity),itsrequisitefuncDonwithoutwhichthesocietycannotsurvive
(Durkheim,1893)
Ø  AnomieisapathologythatcouldleadtoabreakdownofsocialintegraDonand
disintegraDonofthesociety(Durkheim,1893)
Ø  Crimeisanormalsocialfact:itreleasescertainsocialtensions(Durkheim,1893)
Ø  Religion,whichisthemostfundamentalsocialinsDtuDonofhumankindandgave
humanitythestrongestsenseofcollecDveconsciousness,representsacommon
denominatorandasourceofcamaraderieandsolidarity(CraigJ.Calhoun,2002)
Ø  Theindividualbelievesthatbyadheringtomoralitytheyareservingthecommon
Good,andforthisreason,theindividualsubmitsvoluntarilytothemoral
commandment(Kant,1785)
Ø  Themoralauthorityisprimarilytobelocatedinreligion(Kant,1785)
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Recruitment
strategy
Al-MuhajirunisajihadistfrontforforeignfightersestablishedinJune2015includingJabhatalNusrah(al-Qaeda’sbranchinSyria)andHarakatAhrarash-Shamal-Islamiyya.
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Mediaand
communica&on
•  Thecounter-ISISmediaand
communicaDonstrategyis
implementedbyal-Qaeda.
•  TheHollywoodRealityofalBaghdadi'sGroupisavideo
releasedbyHidayyahMedia
FoundaDon(amediaoffshot
ofal-Qaeda)inFebruary2016.
•  Thevideoallegesthatthe
IslamicStatefakesitsvideos.
•  Al-QaedaandtheIslamic
Statehavebeenreleasing
propagandaagainsteach
othersinceApril2013,when
al-Baghdadi’saskedal-Qaeda
topledgeallegiancetoISIS,
andclaimedJabhatal-Nusra
waspartofhisnetwork.
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Counter-ISISnarra&ve
•  Muslimsarenotcriminals,
releasedbyKefahMediain
December2015,showsa
mockISISexecuDonbefore
theal-Jabhaal-Shamiya
(theLevantFront)fighters
takeofftheirmasksand
encouragecounter-ISIS
narraDvewithprisoners
shownbeingtaughtand
imprisonedratherthan
executed.
•  ThisanD-ISISvideooffers
aninteresDngcounter
messageanddistances
fromthetruevaluesof
Islamfromthecriminal
viewsofISIS.
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10yearsa_ertheEUCTStrategy
•  LiPleornothinghasbeendonetoputinplacethefirst
pillar,whichaimistopreventradicalisaDonbytacklingits
rootcauses,andaverDngrecruitmentandaccessto
training.
•  Noneofthe“keyprioriDes”setoutforprevenDonhave
beenimplemented:
Ø  developamediaandcommunicaDonstrategy
Ø  promoteeducaDonandeconomicprosperitythrough
assistanceprogrammes
Ø  developinter-culturaldialogue
Ø  developanon-emoDvelexiconfordiscussingtheissues
Ø  understandingtheissuesanddeveloppolicyresponses
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Thanksforyourkinda<en&on
Lacommediaèfinita!
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