– DRAFT COPY – PLEASE DO NOT CITE WITHOUT AUTHORS’ PERMISSION April 20, 2012 Arts Districts, Universities, and the Rise of Media Arts Shiri M. Breznitz and Douglas S. Noonan Introduction According to the new economic growth theory, people and ideas create technological change, which results in economic growth. In his work, Romer refers to the use of existing resources in a different way as a new recipe for growth. Similarly in the last decade, arts and culture have been placed at the center of attention when discussing economic growth. In particular, studies on the “creative class” have been using arts and culture as an important factor impacting local economies. In addition, studies on local economic development have frequently viewed universities as a major factor in economic growth. In the middle of this discussion is new economic growth via creativity, via new recipes and new combinations of local capital, and via innovation centers. Combining these disparate literatures brings to center stage both clusters of arts and culture and concentrations of research and human capital development. Hence, the focus of this paper is to analyze the dual impacts of universities and arts districts on innovation and economic growth through employment in media arts. There are several ways to identify clusters of arts and culture in an economy. The approach taken here opts for officially designated arts districts as a formally recognized cluster that 1 generally manifests as part of some targeting public investment. For simplicity only, throughout we refer to cultural districts and arts districts synonymously. Frost-Kumpf (1998) lists over 90 US cities with cultural districts, which gives us an excellent measure of arts districts observed roughly in the middle of the available timespan of data. When coupled with the long-standing existence of research intensive (i.e., R1) universities, these two major investments (universities, arts districts) are seen as “treatments” that are hypothesized to affect long-term development of arts-related activities. Simple statistical inferences in this context, especially for arts districts, will be limited by obvious endogeneity concerns. We address these preliminarily by employing a difference-in-difference estimator to see how trends in employment (and innovation in) in media arts differ in cities with arts districts (or universities) and those without. By measuring arts-related employment and innovation as shares of overall employment and innovation, our approach resembles a sort of triple-difference estimator to identify how media arts employment (and innovation) differs from overall employment (innovation) in the city, and how trends in that difference differ by treatment. The results indicate that cultural districts have a consistently positive effect on local media arts economic activity – employment and innovation. The same cannot be said for research universities. The results show that R1 universities in the broader urban area positively impact media arts employment levels and trends. R1 universities in the same city have no impacts on arts and media arts employment. But universities do not appear to differentially impact media arts-related patenting. Cultural districts appear to foster arts and media arts related employment between 1999 and 2006. However, the employment trend is transitory when the analysis period 2 is extended to 2011. The more stable effect of arts districts arises in the patenting analysis, where these clusters appear to promote innovation. Culture, Universities, and Economic Development: What do we know? Economic development studies view industrial clusters, universities, and culture as important. Each of these factors is significant but requires additional factors in the form of human capital, knowledge, and absorptive capacity to make local economic contribution. In particular, studies show that the strength of universities in economic impact is not limited to technology commercialization. Other activities in the form of policy, real estate, and neighborhood revitalization have shown as much vitality although less quantifiably. Similarly, culture in general and art in particular have been increasingly viewed as economic-growth generating tools through the creation of cultural districts and institutions as well as a tool for economic development through the attraction of high quality labor and large corporations. The following section examines each of these factors in more detail. The role of the university in economic development Starting in the 19th century, universities increasingly have become important factors for local economic growth. Moreover, in the late 1980s and early 1990s,with the development of the knowledge economy, where knowledge is a product, led to an increased reliance on universities’ contribution to financial economic development by way of focusing on outcomes of academic research (Etzkowitz and Leydesdorff, 1997, Goddarrd and Chatterton, 1999). As a result, universities have played a central role in contributing to regional and national economies. 3 Universities are an important source of new knowledge and technology, with the potential to be commercialized (Scott, 1977). The pressure on modern universities to pay back to the community has created what is known as the “third role” of universities, by which many universities are now obliged to make a contribution to society through research and development (R&D), collaborations, and technology transfer with industry (Minshall et al., 2004). Universities use a variety of mechanisms to transfer technology to industry. Technology commercialization is the common way by which universities’ economic development is evaluated (Etzkowitz and Leydesdorff, 1997, Feldman and Breznitz, 2009, Lawton Smith, 2000, Lerner, 2004, Markman et al., 2005, Nelsen, 2003, Rahm et al., 2000, Siegel et al., 2004). Formal mechanisms include patents, licenses, and spinout firms (Di Gregorio and Shane, 2003, Link and Siegel, 2005, Mowery et al., 1999, Owen-Smith and Powell, 2001, Sampat, 2006, Siegel et al., 2003, Thursby et al., 2001). Though not the only economic contribution universities make, patents, licenses and spinout firms are easy to quantify and use to measure university productivity. In addition, studies have found a direct link between the distance of firms and universities as a proof for the knowledge spillover generated by university research (Feldman, 1994, Jaffe et al., 1993). This points to a geographic cost to the transmission of knowledge and creativity out of university centers, and it raises interesting questions about the mechanisms behind the spatial clustering of this knowledge and creativity (e.g., geographic sorting by innovators, transportation costs related to communication costs, the role of in-person experiences in creating or consuming the knowledge). In the center of many successful technological regions we find an innovative 4 university with a research focus on the same technology. The mere existence of a university in a region, however, is not a guarantee for economic success. While considerable research effort has gone into understanding the role of universities in generating innovations, transferring technologies and new ideas, and stimulating (local) economic development, nearly all of that work has focused on various technologies with scientific emphases or with commercial and industrial applications. Universities’ roles in spawning innovations and economic impacts in arts-related fields have not received much attention to this point. While this oversight may be for several fairly obvious reasons, we argue that arts-related impacts of universities are particularly interesting not just to the arts sector but also as a way of understanding broader university knowledge spillovers in areas not typically the focus of “tech transfer” or local economic stimulus. When we examine the overlapping relationships between culture and universities we find that universities are found in most highly ranked cities in the “creative class index” (Florida, 2002). Universities are an important part of local economic growth. Florida (2002) claims that the main contribution of universities is in the 3Ts: technology, talent, and tolerance. Hence, the impact of university R&D is important, but its main effects might arise through a different role: its ability to draw talented students and faculty and grow a talented work pool, as well as its education program and diversity that creates an environment of tolerance, to which, according to Florida, many firms are drawn. Strengthening Florida’s notion as to the extended role of universities in economic development, studies find that there are many services and activities provided by universities, such as 5 community and volunteer work that cannot easily be quantified and is not recognized by the public service provided by universities (Breznitz and Feldman, 2012, Forrant et al., 2001, Maurrasse, 2001). In particular, Breznitz and Feldman have identified two additional roles for universities: policy advice and research as well as becoming an active player in local economic initiatives. This includes efforts like workforce development, partnership development, community development, real estate development (Breznitz and Feldman, 2012). Culture and art in economic development The importance of culture as a factor in economic development is not new. Starting in the 1960s this argument was a contributing factor to the creation of many culture and culture-related institutions such as the National Endowment for the Arts is the US (Markusen and Gadwa, 2010). The role of culture and art in local economies can be divided to two parts: generating direct income from local institutions and artists, and as a powerful tool for drawing large corporations and highly skilled labor to a region. Artists as an industry sector on their own have been shown to make a direct contribution via exporting goods and services. Though many artists do not sell their products in the local economy they contribute to the exporting base of their region (Markusen and Schrock, 2006, Markusen and King, 2003). Moreover, the existence of art and cultural institutions such as museums and theaters draws outside funding and visitors to a region. Though, some studies claim that the cost-benefit analysis is very difficult to measure and to compare with places that have not fared so well due to cultural investments (Markusen and Gadwa, 2010). 6 The rise of the new media arts sector, defined in more detail below, in recent years in some regions has demonstrated several important properties that we investigate further here. First, the emergence of the media arts sector shows how the venerable arts industry sector can have a large, disruptive, and exciting impact on economies. The rapid growth and sheer size of the video game industry, for instance, reflects both a potential and a reality for arts-related innovation to occupy a substantial role in an economy. Second, the (spatial) clustering of media arts production is commonly observed at least anecdotally. The serious efforts from states and localities to attract more of that business to their region point to media arts as an avenue (viable or not) for local economic development. Third, how new media arts combines truly artistic and creative content with emergent and novel technologies – the staple of most innovation studies – offers a fascinating intersection between arts and technology and an area with seemingly greater potential for economic impact and innovation for universities. Importantly, the indirect contribution of culture and art can be measured through its impact on other firms and industries (Markusen and Schrock, 2006, Markusen and King, 2003). In particular, arts and artists attract firms and high level human capital to a region contributing to the productivity of other industries (Florida, 2002). Similarly to universities, culture and art are contributing factors to the environment in which firms and individuals choose to live and work (Eaton and Bailyn, 1999).Studies claim that some cities or regions have added jobs more rapidly over time as a result of cultural industries (Pratt, 1997). These additional positions are attributed to large concentration of cultural industries, which have been viewed important to diverse economic base in highly specialize cities (Pratt, 1997). However, studies find conflicting results 7 regarding the possible causality between cultural activity and the attraction of other firms and high income workers (Markusen, 2006, Gleaser, 2004). In addition, physical investment in arts helps revitalize neighborhoods or districts (Bianchini et al., 1988, Landry et al., 1996). As stated by Perryman: “Even in less obvious places the cultural industry plays a measurable economic role” (Perryman, 2000). Hence, culture can be used as an economic development tool. Its contribution, however, depends on a change in the political economy of cities and in the organization and mission of cultural institutes, which create close and mutual benefits between urban political, economic, and cultural entrepreneurs (Florida, 2002, Strom, 2002). Though studies on culture view its impact positively they also caution us about overestimating its impact. “Conventional economic impact studies could be strengthen by stricter criteria for determining the extent to which a given arts or cultural investment induces external income, increased scrutiny with regards to the substitution effect, and attention to efficiency and equity concerns through cost-benefit analyses and participation studies” (Markusen and Gadwa, 2010). Research Design and Method To assess the importance of universities and cultural districts in the economic development literature, this paper analyzes the impact of universities and arts districts on economic growth through employment and innovation in media arts. In particular, the paper focuses on three research questions: How do trends in employment and innovation in media arts differ in cities with arts districts and universities? 8 How do media arts employment and innovation differ from overall employment and innovation in the city, and how do trends in that difference differ by treatment (i.e., whether the city has an arts district or university)? What is the effect of the combination of a major university and a cultural district in the same area on media-arts employment and innovation? We choose to focus on media arts as our industry of choice because of its strong relationships to both arts and university research. Moreover, media arts is a booming industry including but not exclusive to: video games, motion pictures, television, internet publishing, and online entertainment (streaming content, music & video downloads, etc.). For the purpose of this paper, we define media arts as “An artistic and creative content in new (especially digital) formats and media, such as digital art, computerized animation, internet and interactive art.” The paper is based on a quantitative analysis of roughly 140 cities, with measures of local arts district, research universities, employment related to arts and media arts, and media arts-related patenting over the years. We define economic development mainly through two dependent variables: (1) employment in arts and media arts, and (2) innovation, measured by total patents and by the share of those patents related to media art. Our independent variables are the local presence of cultural districts and the number of “research one (R1)” universities. The preliminary research design starts with a sample of the 100 largest cities in the United States, ranging from New York, NY to Spokane, WA. The cities in Frost-Kumpf (1998)’s inventory of 89 cities with cultural districts, which were not already among the top 100 cities by 9 population, are added to this sample. This leaves 148 cities in the sample, although employment data are not available for some smaller towns. Patent data (at various points in time) are measured based on whether the patent assignee’s address matches that city or not. 1 Employment data taken from the Current Population Survey (CPS) at various years (always the month of May for any given year) are matched to the city based on the respondents’ Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) for 1999 and earlier and based on the respondents’ Core Based Statistical Area (CBSA) for 2006 and later. This difference is entirely the result of changes in the geography reported in the public-use CPS data files. As geographic areas, MSAs capture the bigger (50,000 people or more) urban areas, which means that some smaller cities in our sample may slip through the cracks for earlier years. CBSAs are based around urban centers of at least 10,000 people and adjacent areas that are socioeconomically tied to the urban center by commuting. Thus, the CBSA captures micropolitan areas and is more inclusive than the match by CBSAs. To account for the larger geography in measuring employment, the R1 university counts are measured alternatively based on location inside the same municipality, within that municipality’s MSA, and within that municipality’s CBSA. The Frost-Kumpf inventory is used to measure the presence of cultural districts in each municipality (circa 1998). Summary data sources 1. A list of cities with cultural districts based on Frost-Kumpf (1998). 2. A list of the number of research extensive university in each city. This definition is drawn using the Carnegie foundation Research I – Doctoral/Research Universities-Extensive 1 For the cities in the sample, a dictionary of alternate and misspelled city names were used in the matching. Inaccuracies are common in the NBER patent database, and our approach to manually create city synonyms for our sample of cities addresses this. Cities like New York has 19 separate spellings (e.g., “N.Y.”, “New York City”, “New Yotk”) while Milwaukee had 13 (e.g., “Mulwaukee” and “Milwaukie”). 10 definition (Carnegie foundation for the advancement of teaching, 2012). Hence, these institutions are referred to in the paper as R1 universities. These institutions typically offer a wide range of baccalaureate programs, and they are committed to graduate education through the doctorate. During the period studied, they awarded 50 or more doctoral degrees per year across at least 15 disciplines. 3. Employment data from the Current Population Survey, matched using the metro area of the respondents, up to 2011. Employment data is drawn from four categories: Arts-related Industries, and Media Arts-related Industries, Arts-related Occupations, and Media Artsrelated Occupations. When available in the CPS, for recent years, we count a respondent as employed in one of these categories if their primary or secondary job is coded as such. Since our list of arts districts reflects the establishment of cultural districts in or before 1998, the analysis typically uses 1999 as the starting year.2 Our end year depends on data availability. For patent data, the NBER files only reach 2006. The employment data from the CPS cover as recently as 2011. We also use the 2006 CPS employment data for comparison to the patent data. 4. Patents and media art patents are available from the NBER data base 1989 - 2006. Employment definitions The broader field of “the arts” and newer fields like media arts do not map particularly well onto the industry and occupation categorizations used in the CPS. Further, classifications of employment responses changed in the CPS over the timespan of the data. For 1989, 1990, and 2 For whatever reason, the May 1999 CPS data include far fewer MSAs that match to the sample of cities here than in the other years. 11 1999, the analysis uses eleven categories for arts-related industries. 3 It uses eleven categories for media arts-related industries, some of which overlap with arts industries.4 For 2006 and 2011, the arts industry codes5 and media arts industry codes6 changed in the CPS. Similarly, for occupation codes, several categories were combined for arts occupations 7 and for media arts occupations8, some of which overlap, for earlier years of the CPS. Recent years required recategorizations for arts occupation codes9 and for media arts occupation codes10. (The research 3 These are: glass and glass products; cement, concrete, gypsum, and plaster products; structural clay products; pottery and related products; fabricated structural metal products; photographic equipment and supplies; radio and television broadcasting and cable; theatre and motion pictures; miscellaneous entertainment; museum, galleries, and zoos; engineering, architecture, and surveying services. 4 These are: newspapers publishing and printing; printing publishing and allied industries; paints, varnishes, and related products; photographic equipment and supplies; radio and television broadcasting and cable; paper and paper products; advertising; computer and data processing services; theatre and motion pictures; miscellaneous entertainment; museum, galleries, and zoos. 5 These are: printing and related support activities; pottery, ceramics, and related product manufacturing; structural clay product manufacturing; glass and glass product manufacturing; cement, concrete, lime, and gypsum products manufacturing; misc. nonmetallic product manufacturing; aluminum production and processing; cutlery and hand tool manufacturing; coating, engraving, heat treated and allied activities; motion pictures and video industries; sound recording industries; radio and TV broadcasting and cable; internet publishing and broadcasting; architectural, engineering and related services; specialized design services; computer system design and related services; advertising and related services; independent artists, performing art, spectator sports, and related industries; museums, art galleries, and similar institutions. 6 These are: newspaper publishing; publishing except newspapers; software publishing; motion pictures and video industries; sound recording industries; radio and TV broadcasting and cable; internet publishing and broadcasting; specialized design services; computer system design and related services; advertising and related services; independent artists, performing art, spectator sports, and related industries; museums, art galleries, and similar institutions. 7 These are: buys, wholesale and retail trade; purchasing agents and buyers; architects; arts, drama, and music teachers; authors; technical writers; designers; musicians and composers; actors and director; painters, sculptors, craft-artists, and artists paintmakers; photographers; dancer; artists, performers, and related workers; editors and reports; tool and die makers; tool and die apprentices; precision assemblers; patternmakers and model makers, wood; hand molders; patternmakers jay out workers cutters; hand cutting and trimming; hand molding, casting, and forming; hand painting, coating; hand engraving and printing; miscellaneous hand working; production helpers. 8 These are: designers; musicians and composers; actors and director; painters, sculptors, craft-artists, and artists paintmakers; photographers; artists, performers, and related workers; editors and reports; computer operators; classified ad clerks; production helpers. 9 computer and information systems managers; agents and business managers of artists, performers, and athletes; purchasing agents, except wholesale, retails, and farm products; architects; artists and related workers; designers; producers and directors; dancers and choreographers; musicians, singers, and related workers; entertainers and performers; announcers; editors; technical writers; writers and authors; misc media; broadcast and sound; photographers; television, video, and motion picture camera operators; media and communication equipment; motion picture projectionists; misc personal appearance workers; extruding and drawing machine setters; forging machine setters; rolling machine setters; tool and die makers; heat treating equipment; layout workers, metal and plastic; printing machine operators; model makers and pattern makers wood; photographic process workers. 10 computer and information systems managers; agents and business managers of artists, performers, and athletes; purchasing agents, except wholesale, retails, and farm products; computer programmers; computer software 12 design here, by measuring arts-related employment as a percent of total employment, should avoid most of the problems associated with the re-categorization, because the re-categorization affects all cities or observations equally and simultaneously.) Patent definitions Like employment, the field of new media arts does not map well onto existing technology classifications. Media arts-related patents are classified here under media arts according to their description. 11 When considering which patents relate to media arts, this paper used the widest and most inclusive definition possible. 12 Descriptives Table 1 depicts some descriptive statistics from our sample. While the arts and media arts appear occupy small shares of overall employment and patenting in the sample, they are not so small as to be undetectable. The R1 variables are significantly but imperfectly correlated with each other: R1inCity and R1inCBSA have a ρ=0.46, R1inCity and R1inMSA have a ρ=0.66. There is considerable variation in the combinations of R1 universities and arts districts across cities in the sample. This is evident in the cross-tabulation in Table 2. engineers; computer support specialists; artists and related workers; producers and directors; dancers and choreographers; musicians, singers, and related workers; entertainers and performers; announcers; public relations specialists; editors; technical writers; writers and authors; misc media; broadcast and sound; photographers; television, video, and motion picture camera operators; media and communication equipment; motion picture projectionists; hairdressers, hairstylists; misc personal appearance workers; printing machine operators; photographic process workers; helpers- production workers; production workers - all others. 11 This includes: A63J, B41F, B41G, B41M, B42D, B44B, B44C, B44D, F21D, G03B, G03C, G04F, G06F, G06K, G06Q, G06T, G10B, G10C, G10D, G10F, G10G, G10H, G10K, G10L, H04B, H04H, H05K, H04N, H04R, H04S. 12 For patenting classifications, industry codes, and occupation codes, alternate (more restrictive and more expansive) coding was experimented with, and the results do not differ substantially. 13 Table 1: Descriptive Statistics Variable Definition top100 1 if metro-area is in the top 100 city pop. List; 0 otherwise Frost 1 if city listed in Frost-Kumpf's catalog of cultural districts; 0 otherwise R1inCity count of R1 universities in the city R1inMSA count of R1 universities in the city’s MSA R1inCBSA count of R1 universities in the city’s CBSA patsMA99 # MA patents in '99 patpMA06 % of patents in MA in '06 patsMA06 # MA patents in '06 patpMA9906 % of patents in MA in '06 - % in '99 patsMA9906 # of patents in MA in '06 - # in '99 ArtsInd99 % employed in Arts industry in '99 ArtsOcc99 % employed in Arts occupation in '99 MAInd99 % employed in MA industry in '99 MAOcc99 % employed in MA occupation in '99 ArtsInd06 % employed in Arts industry in '06 ArtsOcc06 % employed in Arts occupation in '06 MAInd06 % employed in MA industry in '06 MAOcc06 % employed in MA occupation in '06 ArtsInd11 % employed in Arts industry in '11 ArtsOcc11 % employed in Arts occupation in '11 MAInd11 % employed in MA industry in '11 MAOcc11 % employed in MA occupation in '11 ArtsInd9911 % employed in Arts industry in '11 - % in '99 ArtsOcc9911 % employed in Arts occupation in '11 - % in '99 MAInd9911 % employed in MA industry in '11 - % in '99 MAOcc9911 % employed in MA occupation in '11 - % in '99 Obs Mean 148 Std. Min Max Dev. 0.676 0.470 0 1 148 0.601 0.491 0 1 148 148 148 148 139 148 133 148 79 79 79 79 126 126 126 126 126 126 126 126 121 121 1.047 1.459 0.554 3.027 0.021 5.365 0.006 4.047 0.019 0.010 0.033 0.010 0.029 0.015 0.024 0.024 0.030 0.015 0.024 0.020 0.010 0.004 1.486 2.094 0.950 9.000 0.034 17.540 0.040 16.345 0.011 0.006 0.016 0.006 0.012 0.008 0.011 0.013 0.014 0.008 0.012 0.011 0.016 0.008 0 0 0 0 0 0 -0.13 -7 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -0.04 -0.02 8 9 6 72 0.2 154 0.2 144 0.08 0.03 0.09 0.03 0.06 0.05 0.06 0.09 0.06 0.04 0.05 0.06 0.028 0.013 121 121 -0.010 0.010 0.015 0.012 -0.06 -0.03 0.042 0.020 Note: “MA” represents “media arts-related” in this table. 14 Table 2: Cross-Tabs of “Treatment” Variables R1inCity 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 total No District 40 17 0 1 1 0 0 59 District 51 27 8 0 1 1 1 89 Total 91 44 8 1 2 1 1 148 Identification approach The analysis here seeks to measure the impact of cultural districts and R1 universities – analogs to “treatment variables” in this context. The simplest version of the model looks like: (1) Y = α + βDISTRICTS + δUNIVERSITIES + ε where Y is a measure of (media) arts innovation or (media) arts employment. The analysis that follows uses four separate measures for arts employment: two for arts (employment in an artsrelated industry and employment in an arts-related occupation) and two for media arts (employment in a media arts-related industry and employment in a media arts-related occupation). Just one, the share of all patents related to media-arts, is used for patenting. One problem with estimating equation (1) and drawing inferences about the impact of arts districts or universities arises if there is some other force or factor that affects everything in the city, not just media arts employment or media arts innovation. Similarly, a problem arises if it is just a matter of scale, and cities of certain sizes tend to have more or less arts-related innovation or employment. To address this issue, the Y variables are measured as “shares of overall innovation” or “shares over total employment.” In this way, we are interpreting our impacts of 15 districts and universities as impacts on media arts relative to the local economy as a whole. This approach implicitly controls for factors like the Great Recession, for example, with are large external shocks that affect the entire local economy. Only if that shock affected media arts innovation or employment disproportionately and that shock was correlated with cities with districts or universities would the results be biased. Similarly, measuring everything in terms of “shares” or percentage of overall employment or patenting controls for scale effects (e.g., innovators disproportionately congregate in bigger cities) because everything is measured relative to non-arts related activity in that city. Even that might not be enough. A second concern is that the share of arts or media-arts activity (e.g., employment, patenting) is correlated with something else unobserved about the city that is also correlated with the location of arts districts or universities there. Not addressing this could bias the results. For instance, a city might have a long history of an active artist community, or it might have long had strong arts departments at local universities. In those cases, high levels of media arts employment or patenting might appear to be due to the presence of an arts district or university when, in fact, it is really due to the latent artistic strength of the town. Estimating equation (1) in this situation would lead to upwardly biased estimates of the impact of districts and universities on media arts activity. To mitigate this problem, a first-differenced approach is also taken. Because our “treatment” variables are time-invariant – the presence of districts and universities is constant throughout time in our data – then as a practical matter we can only estimate the impact of districts and universities on the trends in Y. To see this algebraically, consider a more flexible model that incorporates a temporal dimension with subscript t: (2) Yt = αt + βtDISTRICTSt + δtUNIVERSITIESt + εt 16 (3) Yt+1 = αt+1 + βt+1DISTRICTSt+1 + δt+1UNIVERSITIESt+1 + εt+1 Comparing equation (2) to equation (1) shows how there is now a time-varying effect (β, δ) effect of universities and districts. Note that DISTRICTSt = DISTRICTSt+1 because it is timeinvariant, as is UNIVERSITIES. Take equation (2) and subtract from it equation (3), use ∆ to represent the difference between values in period t+1 and in period t (i.e., the trend), and write this as equation (4): (4) ∆Y = ∆α+βt+1DISTRICTSt+1–βtDISTRICTSt+δt+1UNIVERSITIESt+1–δtUNIVERSITIESt +∆ε This can be rewritten as equation (5), dropping the subscripts t for the time-invariant variables: (5) ∆Y = αt + ∆βDISTRICTS + ∆δUNIVERSITIES + ∆ε Equation (5) closely resembles equation (2) in that the regressors are the same; the difference is in the interpretation. When estimating the model for the trends in Y, employment and patenting, the effects (coefficients) of districts and universities are interpreted as the changing impact of those treatments on media arts activity. The trends models show how having an arts district or R1 universities alters the trajectory of media arts-related employment and innovation. In a sense, this controls for any (time-invariant) latent, underlying differences across the cities that might affect the level of media arts employment or innovation. Instead, the trends models show how the impact of these local economic development engines has changed over time. If cities with cultural districts, for instance, have seen their media arts employment (as a share of total employment) rise faster than it has in cities lacking arts districts, this approach will identify that effect. Impacts on media arts employment or patenting that also affect all other employment or patenting will not be detected here; it’s only differential effects. And impacts on media arts 17 employment or patenting that might be due to some intrinsic characteristics of the cities with arts districts (or more universities) will not be detected in the trends analysis – only how the performance of those cities has changed differentially over time relative to cities without arts districts (or universities). Of course, problems remain if (a) there is some other force that happened to affect media-arts related employment or innovation more than other sectors and (b) that force’s impact changed over time and (c) tended to affect cities with cultural districts (or more universities). Research Findings Employment This section reviews the effect of arts districts and R1 universities on art and media art employment. We start with the share of total employment for arts and media arts jobs, followed by employment trends, and lastly examining the interaction effects of R1 universities and cultural districts on arts and media arts employment. The basic models (essentially, equations (1) and (5) above) are all estimated using OLS with Huber-White robust standard errors. As the R2 statistics indicate, most of the models perform modestly overall and a few of them offer extremely limited explanatory power. Overall, arts districts and research universities clearly explain little of the variation across cities in arts and media arts economic activities. The first finding from the analysis shows that arts districts are associated with more arts and media arts employment in 2006, across all four employment of measures. These results shown in Table 3 are robust to a variety of alternative specifications (and also for levels of employment in 2011). These results support existing studies that claim culture and arts in particular to have a 18 direct impact on local economies. In this case we see that the establishment of arts districts by the late 1990s had a positive impact on employment in arts and media arts in their respective cities.13 There does not appear to be an impact on arts and media arts-related employment in 2006 of the number of R1 universities in the city. That said, R1s in the broader urban area (i.e., CBSA) have a consistently positive effect on both arts and media-arts employment in 2006. Although these results on their face seems to contradict studies that view universities as an important factor in economic growth, this may not be the case. First, research-intensive universities do not necessarily a focus on arts or media arts. Hence, these results should not be that surprising. Moreover, expanding the geographical level of analysis from the city to the CBSA changes the results and hence, implies that artists do not concentrate in the same city as R1 universities but rather in the surrounding urban area. Table 3 – Employment shares, 2006 dependent variable variable District R1inCity R1inCBSA constant N R2 Arts Industry coef. (t) 0.0041 ** 2.01 -0.0008 -0.87 0.0021 *** 4.25 0.0242 *** 14.66 126 0.1326 Arts Occupations coef. (t) 0.002395 1.62 -0.00044 -0.61 0.001091 *** 3.33 0.01237 *** 12.07 126 0.0761 Media Arts Industry coef. (t) 0.004567 ** 2.36 -0.00023 -0.21 0.002141 *** 4.63 0.018783 *** 12.42 126 0.1648 Media Arts Occupations coef. (t) 0.005087 ** 2.26 -0.00106 -1.08 0.001269 *** 2.95 0.019739 *** 13.42 126 0.0692 13 Interestingly, the same model estimated for 1990 data indicates no significant relationship at all between arts districts and arts-related employment. This is also true for 1989 data. This suggests that arts districts did not just develop in cities with greater arts employment. 19 To make clear the impact of districts and universities on employment trends and relative growth of the arts or media arts sector, the analysis turns to a differenced model. Importantly, the results in Table 4 show that there is no effect of R1 universities or arts districts in the city on arts or media-arts employment trends in the urban area between 1999-2011. That said, R1 universities in the broader urban area (CBSA) have a fairly consistently positive effect on arts and media-arts employment trends. These result appear consistent with arts districts providing a temporary boost to arts- and media arts-related employment during the mid-2000s and arts-related employment not clustering in the same cities as the R1 universities that do seem to modest promote their growth. Given that the sample average of city’s growth in arts-related industry employment shares is only +1%, the small effect of +0.3% in Table 4 is relatively important. Table 4 – Employment Trends, 1999 – 2011 dependent variable variable District R1inCity R1inCBSA constant N R2 Arts Industry coef. (t) 0.0029 0.75 0.0015 1.24 0.0030 *** 4.65 0.0030 0.99 72 0.1568 Arts Occupations coef. (t) -0.0005 -0.35 -0.0005 -0.79 0.0008 * 1.72 0.0033 *** 3.13 72 0.0544 Media Arts Industry coef. (t) 0.0005 0.15 0.0002 0.15 0.0007 0.45 -0.0115 *** -3.58 72 0.0093 Media Arts Occupations coef. (t) -0.0011 -0.45 -0.0010 -1.25 0.0014 *** 2.93 0.0088 *** 6.2 72 0.0594 Table 5 shows the results of the analysis examining the interaction effect between arts districts and R1 universities when predicting employment shares in 2006. In general, we find that there is 20 minimal significant interaction effects. Arts districts do not have stronger employment effects if they are in cities with more R1 universities. There is some evidence, however, that the positive effect of R1 universities in the broader urban area (CBSA) on employment shares in arts- and media arts-related industries shares is significantly reduced in cities that have arts districts. Table 5 – Employment Shares, 2006 – Interaction Effects dependent variable variable District R1inCity R1inCBSA District× R1inCity District× R1inCBSA constant N R2 Arts Industry coef. (t) 0.0062 2.19 -0.0016 -1.01 0.0033 3.84 0.0014 0.69 -0.0020 -2.02 0.0229 11.62 126 0.1537 Arts Occupations coef. (t) ** *** ** *** 0.0028 1.42 -0.0012 -1.21 0.0015 *** 2.73 0.0012 0.9 -0.0007 -1.05 0.0121 *** 11.16 126 0.0824 Media Arts Industry coef. (t) 0.0072 2.71 0.0003 0.16 0.0032 3.93 -0.0005 -0.23 -0.0017 -1.84 0.0172 9.74 126 0.1861 Media Arts Occupations coef. (t) *** *** * *** 0.0064 ** 2.17 -0.0012 -0.9 0.0019 *** 2.99 0.0003 0.17 -0.0011 -1.33 0.0189 *** 11.36 126 0.0748 The results of the interaction models for employment trends from 1999-2011, evident in Table 6, indicate no significant interaction effects overall. Trends in arts- and media arts-related employment shares in this sample of cities appear unrelated to the joint presence of arts districts and R1 universities. Any synergy that is there does not manifest in trends in employment shares either within the city or in the broader metropolitan area. 21 Table 6 – Employment Trends, 1999–2011 – Interaction Effects dependent variable variable District Arts Industry coef. (t) R1inCity R1inCBSA District× R1inCity District× R1inCBSA constant N R2 0.0004 0.07 -0.0003 -0.15 0.0026 *** 3.14 0.0033 1.21 0.0007 0.55 0.0042 1.21 72 0.1683 Arts Occupations coef. (t) -0.0001 -0.05 0.0002 0.23 0.0007 1.57 -0.0012 -1.04 0.0001 0.17 0.0031 *** 2.87 72 0.0612 Media Arts Industry coef. (t) -0.0024 -0.49 0.0004 0.28 -0.0007 -0.76 0.0002 0.07 0.0022 0.88 -0.0099 *** -2.84 72 0.027 Media Arts Occupations coef. (t) -0.0013 -0.37 0.0005 0.61 0.0007 1.5 -0.0024 -1.61 0.0010 1.26 0.0089 *** 5.85 72 0.0709 Robustness Tests The employment section results involve an analysis of the trends from 1999 – 2011, instead of 1990 – 2011. The 1999 – 2011 analysis has the advantage that it is the best date range to detect an effect of arts districts, because our list/inventory was done in 1998. It has the disadvantage of the CPS sample drawn from May 1999 that, for whatever reason, only has about two thirds of the sample of cities in it, so the sample is inconveniently small. An analysis of 1990 – 2011 trends, which has a larger sample, suffers from the problem that the arts district “treatment” might not have occurred until well after 1990, thus likely biasing the resulting effects toward zero (i.e., attenuation bias). Hence, when extending the timeframe of the analysis to start at 1990, the results changes substantially. For media arts-industry employment or for arts occupations there is no significant effect of arts districts or of R1 universities. For media arts occupations, there is a negative effect 22 of R1s in the city (and no significant effect of R1s in the CBSA or arts districts). Only for arts industry employment trends are the results for 1990-2011 similar to those in Table 4. Another robustness check performed here considers the possibility that the District variable is endogenous in equation (1) or (5). To assess this possibility, District is instrumented for using the 1989 levels of arts- and media arts-related employment, the share of patents in 1989 for media arts-related classifications, and the share of all patents granted in 1989 that were assigned to universities. The premise here is that the 1989 arts-related employment shares and the patent share variables do not belong in either equation (1) or (5) (i.e., they do not predict arts employment shares in 2006 condition on the presence of arts districts and the count of R1 universities), and that they also predict the likelihood of an arts district being in that city. Estimating the various models in Tables 3-6 via instrumental variables reveals two consistent results. First, the exclusion restrictions appear valid – the proposed instruments indeed do not belong in the equation of interest. Second, the instruments perform very poorly as the 1989 levels of arts-related employment and innovation are only weakly correlated with the presence of an arts district. This second result is rather surprising, but, if anything, seems to suggest that the arts district “treatment variable” may be sufficiently idiosyncratic as to resemble an exogenous treatment. Innovation and Patents This section analyzes the impact of R1 universities and arts districts, as well as their interaction, on media arts patents. We start with an analysis of their impact on the share of media arts 23 patents, followed by the impact on total numbers, impact on the share of patents over time, and the trend in total number of patents. Examining the share of media arts patents in 1999 we find no correlations with the existence of an arts district or a research one university in the city. Examining the patenting share of media arts in 2006, however, we find that towns with arts districts have higher shares of media arts patents. Table 7 reports the results for 2006 media arts patenting. The analysis did not find any university impact on the share of patenting. The differences between the 1999 and the 2006 results could be due to the possibility that arts districts’ impacts on innovation were not felt until years after 1998 (the date of the Frost-Kumpf inventory). Table 7 – Patent Shares and Counts, 2006 dependent variable variable District R1inCity R1inCBSA District× R1inCity District× R1inCBSA constant N R2 Media Arts patent share coef. (t) 0.0182 *** 3.42 0.0005 0.17 0.0012 0.63 0.0077 *** 3.10 139 0.0803 Media Arts patent share coef. (t) 0.0186 *** 2.89 0.0016 0.62 0.0011 0.83 -0.0014 -0.28 0.0002 0.07 0.0074 *** 3.21 139 0.0806 Media Arts patent count coef. (t) 4.8533 ** 2.34 5.3325 *** 3.18 Media Arts patent count coef. (t) 2.9130 1.65 2.2066 *** 3.74 4.1520 * 1.74 -0.5081 -0.59 148 0.1118 0.7634 1.39 148 0.121 An analysis of the total number of media arts patents granted in 2006 indicates that cities with arts districts and R1 universities are associated with more media arts patents. (See the third column of results in Table 7.) The effect of arts districts is +4.9 more media arts patents in that 24 city in 2006 and the effect of additional R1 universities in the same city is +5.3 more media arts patents in 2006. When you allow for districts and universities to have an interaction effect, however, then we find arts districts and universities have weaker individual effects while their interaction becomes the more impacting variable. (See the fourth column of results in Table 7.) This result is consistent with studies that view both culture and universities as contributing but not sufficient factors in local economic growth. Hence, their combined effect is larger than their direct contribution. That universities positively affect the count of media arts-related patents but not the share of patenting for the media arts is consistent with the role of universities as promoting more patenting overall. As total patent counts rise, so does the media arts-related patent subset, but the growth rate for media-arts patents is not differentially larger or smaller than other technology classes. Examining the share in media arts patenting over time, we find that arts districts lead to a steeper trajectory in the share of media arts patents. (See Table 8.) The share of media arts patents rose from 1999 to 2006, on average, by two percentage points more than in cities lacking arts districts. Contrast that effect with the sample average media arts patent growth rate of 0.6%. Arts districts are associated with higher shares of media arts patenting in 2006 and also with faster growth rates in the share of patenting that goes to media arts. We find that the count of R1 universities does not lead to a rise in share of patents for media arts. The second column of results in Table 8 shows that there is no significant interaction effect between districts and universities when it comes to patenting trends. Overall, the results in Tables 7 and 8 support existing studies that claim that arts districts contribute to the productivity of industry and firms in the region. It appears that arts districts promote innovation in media arts in particular. 25 Table 8 – Trends in media arts patenting, shares and counts, 1999-2006 dependent variable variable District R1inCity R1inCBSA District× R1inCity District× R1inCBSA constant N R2 Media Arts patent share coef. (t) 0.0192 *** 2.87 0.0015 0.4 -0.0010 -0.47 -0.0042 -1.2 133 0.06 Media Arts patent share coef. (t) 0.0152 * 1.88 0.0045 0.85 -0.0043 -1.11 -0.0054 -0.77 0.0051 1.11 -0.0014 -0.42 133 0.0709 Media Arts patent count coef. (t) 3.8634 ** 2.46 0.8028 0.31 -0.3081 -0.83 0.0195 0.02 148 0.0222 Media Arts patent count coef. (t) 4.2651 ** 2.35 0.5291 0.56 0.0063 0.04 0.4211 0.12 -0.4442 -0.78 -0.2742 -0.48 148 0.023 Examining the trends in the total number of media arts patents between 1999 and 2006 , we find that cities with more R1 universities do not produce more media arts-related patents. As for patenting shares, however, the presence of an arts districts does have a positive effect on media arts patenting trends. Having both more R1 universities and an arts district does not have a differential impact on media arts patenting. The consistent result is that arts districts have a much stronger role on media arts-related patenting, although universities do impact patenting in overall. Perhaps because patenting universities do not focus on media arts limits their impact in this sector. Discussion and Conclusions Overall, in this simple model, R1 universities in the urban area (rather than in the same city itself) seem to have the strongest effects on arts- and media arts-related employment levels. 26 Cities with cultural districts had higher arts employment shares in 2006, but that effect is not reflected in longer-term trends in employment shares. There, only R1s in the CBSA seem to drive arts- and media arts-related employment growth. With respect to patenting, the story is even more clear: cultural districts promote more media arts patenting and faster growth in innovation in that sector, R1 universities typically do not differentially favor media arts patenting. Further, there do not appear to be consistently significant interaction effects between districts and universities. Perhaps unintuitively, universities seem to promote more arts-related employment (rather than media arts patenting and innovation) whereas cultural districts seem to promote more media arts patenting and innovation (rather than arts-related employment). A plausible story, worth further and future investigation, is that universities play a major role in developing arts and cultural industries by attracting and training artists and arts-related labor, while cultural districts attract innovative entrepreneurs in the related field of media arts. These results strengthen studies regarding the role of culture and universities in economic growth. We find that arts districts and universities impact employment levels. The results indicate that the impact of arts district, however, is confined to a short period of time. Moreover, the impact of R1 universities implies that artists do not live in the same city as the R1 university and hence suggest a need to evaluate the relationships between the geographical location of the R1 university and employed artists. These results also conform to cultural studies literature and indicate that culture has a direct positive connection to economic development. Hence, art and culture impacts economic growth both directly through employment and also indirectly through innovation. Universities’ impact 27 specifically in media arts, on the other hand, may be more limited to promoting innovation (patenting) more generally and attracting or training labor for arts and media arts jobs. Future Work Future work includes several extensions of this preliminary investigation. First, we are collecting information specific arts- (and media arts-) related degree programs at universities. This will allow us to test whether more specific or targeted university efforts impact media arts employment and innovation. In parallel, we are also exploring richer measures of cultural clusters, beyond the inventory of cultural districts. This includes controlling for the age and size of the cultural districts as well as using Strom’s (2002) inventory of 71 major cultural facilities being built or renovated between 1985-2005. Second, we will extend the analysis to include other years of CPS (employment) and patent data, overcoming some of the current limitations. Third, we will carry out a qualitative investigation of the top- and bottom-performing cities in terms of media arts employment and innovation. This will allow a richer exploration of the relationship between universities, cultural districts, and the arts and media arts sectors. 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