The tragedy of the commons Traffic jams and road congestion are problems we all encounter. For economists, road congestion is an example of the ‘tragedy of the commons’. Maksymilian Kwiek explains why R oad congestion is one of the most irritating aspects of modern life. Being stuck in traffic and arriving late to an important meeting can be both infuriating and depressing. This suffering is hard to measure, but there are more tangible costs, such as lost petrol, pollution and — above all — lost time and missed deadlines for millions of people. Congestion, as a general problem, does not apply only to road usage, but it is certainly experienced first hand by pretty much all citizens. Let us use this example to explain the general problem of the socalled congestible public good, where the phenomenon known as the tragedy of the commons is endemic. Let us also examine the proposals often suggested by economists to ease the inefficiencies associated with traffic jams. Road congestion Photodisc Classification of goods 16 When an economist says that a road is a public good, he or she does not mean that the road is public. It often is, but that is not what is meant. This statement is about a characteristic of a good, not about its legal ownership. Goods have various properties and the aim of this discussion is to show that these properties are crucial to the way goods are allocated in societies. An apple is a private good because one person eating it automatically prevents other people from using it. This property is called rivalry, since two consumers are rivals in consumption. National defence, on the other hand, is a completely different kind of good. If one person enjoys security provided by national defence, this does not make ‘less’ national defence available to other consumers. A public good is a good that does not exhibit rivalry in consumption. Rivalry is obviously not black and white: there are various shades of grey. Goods are partially rival, or congestible, when consumption by one person reduces, but does not eliminate, the benefit that this good brings to other consumers. A heavily used Economic Review Corbis/Cadmium/ImageDJ Apples are private goods, whereas national defence is public road is a good example — it is a public good because putting one more car on this road does not prevent other drivers from using it, but it is congestible because such an addition slows everyone else down. Excludability Apples, roads and national defence are goods that differ in the level of rivalry, but that is not the only important difference. An owner of an apple can easily exclude others from consuming it. With national defence or police-provided security, it is a different matter. Whoever pays for security cannot simply exclude their neighbours from enjoying a safe public space. Neighbours benefit from increased security merely by living in the area. How easy it is to exclude others from consuming a good or service is called excludability. Apples are excludable, national defence is not. Although these remarks are mostly about the intrinsic nature of a good or service, it may be possible to modify the degree to which a good is excludable. Sometimes simple physical modifications are possible, such as putting a fence around a park, or a toll booth at the entrance to a bridge, to make them excludable. Legal changes can also be introduced. For instance, everyone could hunt in Sherwood Forest in ancient times, meaning that game animals were non-excludable. By the time of Robin Hood, however, hunting for some animals was only allowed by royal licence. The change in the law, followed by strong enforcement, made game animals excludable. This leads us to a question: what legal framework should be used to regulate April 2011 production and allocation of congestible public goods, such as roads? These are, in fact, two separate questions: l the first one is who should produce and supply the good (the production issue) l the second one is who should get to consume it and how much (the allocation issue) The focus of this article is on the second question: we will just assume that roads are already in place. Tragedy of the commons Should an administration restrict the availability of existing roads? Should kings control hunting in Sherwood Forest? Should new laws make it easier to exclude consumers from using congestible public goods? The answer for pure (non-congestible) public goods is no. Once the good is provided, say through general taxation, it does not make any sense to restrict access to it. The following simple example will show that the answer for a congestible public good is yes. Every day, eight inhabitants of a suburban town may use a stretch of a road to commute to a nearby city. Drivers value the car trip differently. Let us arrange them in order of their valuations so that the first one has the highest valuation, 16, the next has 15 and so on. These valuations are presented in the second column of Table 1. The more cars there are on the motorway, the greater is the cost of delay incurred by each of them. In particular, assume that each other car on the road costs a given driver £2. This is shown in the third column of Table 1. These numerical values do not have to be realistic as they are just for illustration. We assume, however, that they represent all individual costs and benefits. Likewise, we assume that there are no other costs, such as pollution or noise. This assumption, again, is not because it is realistic — it is not — but because we do not want to confuse our examination of congestion costs with other issues. Individual and total social benefit We are now going to calculate the individual benefit and the total social benefit as the number of drivers increases. Suppose, for example, that the number of drivers is three. Then the individual net benefit of the third driver is £10 (£14 – £4). The total social benefit, however, is equal to total benefit (£16 + £15 + £14) = £45, minus the cost of congestion of £4 per each of three drivers. The result is £33. Table 1 Individual benefits and total welfare Individual incentives and total welfare Assumptions Number of drivers Individual valuation of the marginal driver 1 16 2 15 3 14 Individual net benefit of the marginal driver Total welfare Individual incentives with price £6 0 16 16 10 –2 13 27 7 –4 10 33 4 Congestion cost per driver 4 13 –6 7 34 1 5 12 –8 4 30 –2 6 11 –10 1 21 –5 7 10 –12 –2 7 –8 8 9 –14 –5 –12 –11 17 Ingram If such an improvement can be designed then it probably should, and the original situation should be declared undesirable. Economists call this situation Pareto inefficient. In our example, the only efficient outcome involves four drivers. We can see that there is a wide difference between equilibrium and a socially efficient outcome. An unregulated market leads to a result that is radically inferior in relation to the social optimum. Why is that? Congestion in Athens became so bad that pollution from traffic caused damage to the city’s historic buildings Total welfare The calculation of the total welfare, however, is completely different. The total welfare is highest (£34) when there are only four drivers on the road. Someone might object to the idea that the maximisation of the sum of drivers’ benefits is the right criterion leading to the most ‘desirable’ outcome. Maybe maximisation of the number of commuters is the right criterion. After all, if we ask any of the first six drivers to leave their cars at home (without any compensation), we will make them less happy, and that certainly is not good. The critical fact, though, is that it is inexpensive to convince the sixth driver to leave his or her car at home. One needs to pay them a compensation of only £1 plus a penny to achieve this. On the other hand, the reduction in congestion costs for the 18 remaining five drivers is such that each of them is willing to pay up to £2 for that. In principle, one can imagine a compensation scheme that would ask these five drivers to collect a little ‘bribe’ in order to persuade the sixth driver to leave the car at home. It may be difficult to organise this in practice, but at the conceptual level it is possible. Ingram If anyone can use the road at will, then six individuals will drive. The reason is simple: if there are fewer drivers, say five, then the next potential new driver, who contemplates becoming a sixth person commuting by car and whose valuation is £11, would notice that the congestion cost is £10, resulting in the net benefit equal to £1, which is strictly positive. So, he or she should join. On the other hand, if there are six drivers already, the seventh driver raises the congestion costs to £12, which exceeds his or her valuation of £10. To avoid this loss, this driver should not join those initial six drivers. Conclusion Individuals, when deciding whether to take their car or leave it at home, compare their own individual benefits with the individual costs of these actions. No matter how big the individual cost of driving is (of time, but also of petrol, car depreciation etc.), it does not include the cost incurred on others, such as congestion. An action will obviously look more attractive if one does not have to take all its costs into account. As a result, unrestricted use of a congestible public good will lead to overuse. This conclusion is general, despite the fact that it was obtained in the context of a simple example. This is an illustration of the phenomenon called the ‘tragedy of the commons’. It is prevalent not only in Should access to fisheries be restricted? Economic Review ImageDJ The London congestion charge is a crude attempt to resolve the tragedy of the commons in the capital the case of heavily used roads, but in all instances of congestible public goods with free access, such as fisheries, pastures, forests etc. Sometimes even goods or services that are excludable in principle obtain properties of a congestible public good with free access, by specific regulation. Two examples of this are access to hospital A&E departments and access to free higher education. Remedies Authorities have been trying to alleviate the inefficiencies inherent in congested roads for a long time. Congestion is a form of ad hoc rationing and the most obvious remedies involve some version of administrative rationing. Restricting access Many cities restrict access of cars based on their registration number. In Athens, cars whose number plate’s last digit is even can enter the city centre only on even days, and cars whose plate ends in an odd number can enter only on odd days. This method does decrease costs associated with congestion, but it suffers from many other problems: April 2011 l It does not account for individual differences. Someone may desperately need to drive to the city on a particular day, for example, but may not have the right to do so, while their neighbour drives to the city on the same day for no particular reason. There is, however, no formal way for the neighbour to give up his or her spot on the road — other than lending their car. l The system is inflexible. It might still be difficult to eliminate congestion, even with only half of all the cars in Athens. Conversely, half of all the cars may not be enough to fill up all the empty road space, and the roads will thus be unused. Demanding payment for access Another method involves some form of payment for access. If the source of inefficiency is the fact that individuals do not bear all the costs that they generate, these congestion costs can just be included in the price of driving. This motivation is different from the one behind various toll roads or toll bridges. The purpose is not to pay for the construction or improvement to this infrastructure, but rather to manage the intensity of traffic to maximise its social value. It is often argued that road users already pay too much. They pay vehicle tax and fuel duty. The total amount paid to the government in this way is greater than all the expenditure on maintaining roads. The crux is, however, to emphasise how the money is paid, not necessarily how much. Let us illustrate this in the context of our numerical example. Suppose that there are two proposals. Proposal 1 is to pay a fee exactly equal to the congestion cost incurred on other drivers. With four drivers in the efficient outcome, this is £6. The last column of the table shows the individual incentives of each driver, if we subtract a fee of £6 for using the road in addition to all the previous benefits and costs. As a result, only four drivers would stay on the roads, which is exactly the efficient result that we wanted. The government revenue is £24. Proposal 2 is for each of eight car owners to pay a car tax of £3, so that the total revenue is no different from in Proposal 1, equal to £24. It turns out that this proposal does not change the driving patterns at all, in comparison to the pre-regulation circumstances. The tax is paid regardless of whether the car is used to drive into the city 19 Review notes 1 A public good is a good that does not exhibit rivalry in consumption and is nonexcludable. Some public goods, however, are partially rival, or congestible, i.e. consumption by one person reduces — but does not eliminate — the benefit that this good brings to other consumers. 2 When individuals use public goods and this leads to congestion or depletion of that (congestible) good, this is referred to as the ‘tragedy of the commons’. Free access to a public good allows individuals to maximise their use of that good and will lead to its overuse. Thus the costs for the individual are less than the social costs borne by the society in terms of congestion or depletion of this resource. 3 Road congestion is a classic example of a congestible public good. Drivers impose a cost on others that is greater than their individual cost. 4 One suggestion to deal with this inef- ficiency is to restrict access. Another potential remedy is to charge for usage. It is clear that government intervention is needed to deal with the tragedy of the commons, though both suggested remedies may have drawbacks. or stays at home. Individual valuations in car usage therefore stay the same. It is true that this proposal may create incentives to get rid of some of the marginal cars, but it certainly does not create incentives to stop driving during rush hours. In practice The London congestion charge, introduced in 2003, is a classic example. It is a daily fee of £10 (from January 2011), payable by drivers using public roads in the central area of London on weekdays between 7 a.m. and 6 p.m. Drivers may pay online, by phone or in local shops any time on the day of travel, a day before or a day after. The system of cameras checks number plates of cars in the zone and automatically compares them with the database of payments. Penalty charges are sent to owners of any cars that are detected in the zone without a matching payment. As a result of the introduction of this system, the overall congestion in central London, defined as the delay relative to uncongested conditions, went down by about 30%. Bus reliability increased significantly, leading to an increase of patronage by 37% in just the first year. The safety of using bicycles and the number of trips by bicycle increased, and car pollution decreased. Although the system was controversial before it was launched, since then it has been praised as a success. Yet the system is rather crude. For example, someone who has to drive to London during the day must pay the same fee, regardless of when or where he or she is driving. Again, there are no incentives to avoid particularly congested times, such as the morning rush hour. The new technology, however, promises an enormous step forward from these preliminary attempts. Even today technology exists that makes it possible to identify the exact position of a car via GPS hardware, download all the relevant road information via the 3G network and upload all the details about the traffic, car’s position and time. That means that we can start thinking about how to organise a system of road fees that depends on the time of day, location and many other things. £ Maksymilian Kwiek is a lecturer in economics at the University of Southampton and is a member of the editorial board of ECONOMIC REVIEW. STUDENT REVISION CONFERENCES AS/A2 Economics Revise with senior examiners ●● Practise the skills needed for exam success ●● Turn understanding into top grades ●● Expert advice and practical support from senior examiners Ray Powell, Quintin Brewer, Rachel Cole and Jim Lawrence Ask your teacher about booking a place and get a head start with your revision! 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