Saudi-Arabia
Familiedynasti for fall?
Stig Stenslie
PETROPOLs forskerkonferanse
Oslo, 13. juni 2006
Spådommer om fall
”The whole system will collapse. No one can hold the balance of power. The
tribal state will fall apart.”
– British Diplomat in Saudi Arabia, 1950s
”Saudis are now talking almost openly about the end of the House of Saud, and
the inevitability – even the desirability – of a bloody revolution.”
– James Akins, USA’s former ambassador to Saudi
Arabia, 1979
”Like a rotting carcass, the House of Saud is beginning to decompose. (...) If
nothing is done then we will have a revolution, if not in 1997, then soon after.”
– Said K. Aburish, The Rise, Corruption and Coming
Fall of the House of Saud, 1996
”One day, some time soon, one way or another, the House of Saud is coming
down.”
– Robert Baer, former senior analyst in CIA, 2003
Politisk struktur
Religious
Establishment
strategic alliance
natural enemies
strategic alliance
THE ROYAL FAMILY
wild card
Liberals/
Technocrats
Tribes
natural allies
natural enemies
strategic alliance
natural allies
Merchant
Families
“Faysals” tronefølgeorden
FAHD bin Abdul Aziz
ABDULLAH bin Abdul Aziz
Born: 1921
Mother: Hassa bint Ahmad al-Sudairy
Born: 1923
Mother: Fahada bint Asi al-Shuraim
Figurehead
Associated with corruption
Groomed own sons
Popular in the USA
Effective, though decision maker
Arab nationalist
Popular with the tribes
Not associated with corruption
SALMAN bin Abdul Aziz
NAIF bin Abdul Aziz
Born: 1936
Mother: Hassa bint Ahmad
al-Sudairy
Born: 1933
Mother: Hassa bint
Ahmad al-Sudairy
Youngest member of “inner
circle”
Popular with the people and
the Aristocrats
Potential reformer
Low-key
Succession wild-card
SULTAN bin Abdul Aziz
Born: 1924
Mother: Hassa bint
Ahmad al-Sudairy
Unpopular
Associated with corruption
Groomed own sons
Popular in the USA
Grunnloven om tronefølge
Adopted by Royal decree of King FAHD, March 1992
Chapter 2, Article 5:
(B) “Rule passes to the sons of the founding king, IBN SAUD, and to their
children’s children. The most upright among them is to receive allegiance in
accordance with the principles of the Holy Koran and the Tradition of the
Venerable Prophet.”
(C) “The King chooses the Heir Apparent and relieves him of his duties by
Royal order.”
Tronefølge – nøkkelaktører
Senior Princes
Royal Blood Lines
Other Princes
Sons of Ibn Saud with
political influence (”2nd
Generation”)
Grand sons of Ibn Saud
with inherited power (“3rd
Generation”)
Potential Influential princes
in the transition period
The Sudayris (“Sudayri
Seven”): Fahd†, Sultan,
Abdul Rahman, Nayef,
Salman, Ahmed)
Al Faysal: Saud, Turki,
Khaled
Sons of King Saud:
Muhammed
Al Fahd: Mohammed,
Abdul Aziz, Saud
Other grand sons of Ibn
Saud
Older half brothers:
(Bandar, Miqrin, Mitab,
Abdul Majid, Fawwaz)
Al Abdullah: Khaled,
Mitab, Abdul Aziz
Collateral branches
(which influence has
weakened in time)
Al Sultan: Khaled, Bandar,
Fahd, Faysal
Al Nayef: Saud,
Mohammed
Al Salman: Abdul Aziz,
Fahd, Ahmed
Konklusjon
Abdullahs posisjon per dags dato ikke truet, ingen
alvorlige konflikter innad i Saud-familien
Men trolig tiltakende rivalisering om maktposisjoner og
ressurser etter Abdullah
Generasjonsskiftet kritisk