Conserv Genet (2011) 12:517–526 DOI 10.1007/s10592-010-0158-9 RESEARCH ARTICLE Historic DNA reveals contemporary population structure results from anthropogenic effects, not pre-fragmentation patterns Lisa N. Tracy • Ian G. Jamieson Received: 25 May 2010 / Accepted: 19 October 2010 / Published online: 5 November 2010 Ó Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2010 Abstract Contemporary patterns of genetic structure among fragmented populations can either result from historic patterns or arise from human-induced fragmentation. Use of historic samples collected prior to fragmentation allows for the origin of genetic structure to be established and appropriate management steps to be determined. In this study, we compare historic and contemporary levels of genetic diversity and structure of an endangered passerine, the New Zealand mohua or yellowhead (Mohoua ochrocephala), using nuclear microsatellites. We found that a significant amount of allelic richness has been lost over the last 100 years. Close to half of this was due to extinction of birds from entire regions, but almost as much was due to loss of genetic diversity within extant populations. We found a pattern of isolation by distance among contemporary populations, which could have resulted from historic structure due to limited gene flow along a latitudinal cline. However, we found that minimal genetic structure existed historically. The pattern of increased structure over time was confirmed by factorial correspondence analysis. We conclude that the genetic structure apparent today resulted from anthropogenic effects of recent fragmentation and isolation. We emphasize the importance of assessing genetic structure of populations prior to their fragmentation, when determining the significance of contemporary patterns. This study highlights the growing importance of Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (doi:10.1007/s10592-010-0158-9) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users. L. N. Tracy I. G. Jamieson (&) Department of Zoology, University of Otago, 340 Great King Street, Dunedin 9054, New Zealand e-mail: [email protected] museum specimens as a tool in the conservation of threatened and endangered species. Keywords Genetic structure Historic DNA Mohoua ochrocephala Microsatellites Genetic diversity Wildlife conservation Introduction Spatial genetic patterns are increasingly studied and applied to management decisions for threatened species, including identification of conservation units and estimation of dispersal and migration (Schwartz et al. 2007; Elderkin et al. 2008; Koumoundouros et al. 2009). Understanding the origins of contemporary genetic population structure can also contribute valuable information in the guidance of management programs (Leonard 2008; Shepherd and Lambert 2008; Boessenkool et al. 2009). However, spatial genetic patterns across a landscape can arise from entirely different processes and on different time scales (Reding et al. 2010). Structure could be the result of historically reduced gene flow due to natural barriers (such as mountain ranges or natural habitat gaps) or latitudinal clines (Manel et al. 2003). Importantly, genetic structure with an extensive history increases the potential for adaptations to local environments (Slatkin 1987). On the other hand, genetic structure might result from more recent processes related to human-induced decline and fragmentation. Therefore, when contemporary genetic structure is evident in a threatened species, it is important to determine whether the observed structure results from historic processes, and is therefore more likely to carry evolutionary significance (e.g. Lara-Ruiz et al. 2008), or is merely a consequence of the recent decline, isolation and fragmentation (e.g. Martinez-Cruz et al. 2007). 123 518 Furthermore, studies using contemporary DNA only will often overlook this important distinction. Therefore, comparisons of both historic and contemporary patterns of genetic structure are essential in defining management units and guiding decisions as to whether augmentation of gene flow is appropriate or necessary (Leonard 2008). We illustrate the points made above by using historic museum specimens and contemporary samples to assess whether current population structure in a highly fragmented species is a result of recent isolation due to human induced factors or if it reflects historic population structure due to natural barriers to gene flow or latitudinal clines. New Zealand’s mohua, or yellowhead (Mohoua ochrocephala), is an endemic forest passerine and is an ideal species to examine the causes of contemporary spatial genetic structure for several reasons: (i) mohua had a continuous historical distribution in a linear landscape across a latitudinal cline of the South Island of New Zealand (Gaze 1985), which could have given rise to spatial genetic structure; (ii) human induced decline has resulted in range reduction and fragmentation into isolated patches across its historic range (Fig. 1), which could also cause spatial genetic structure; (iii) museum specimens are available from before the majority of declines to accurately assess historic genetic structure. Finally mohua, like many other threatened New Zealand species, depend on island reintroductions in order to protect populations from introduced predators (O’Donnell et al. 2002; Jamieson et al. 2008). Understanding changes in genetic diversity among the remaining but patchily distributed mainland populations allows managers to identify the best sources for reintroductions to island sanctuaries. To determine the cause of spatial genetic structure among contemporary mohua populations, we quantify nuclear microsatellite DNA variation from contemporary blood samples and museum skins collected during the early phase of mohua decline (1880s–1930s). We assess changes in genetic diversity and genetic structure over time through a number of methods including isolation by distance on population and individual levels and factorial correspondence analysis. Our results demonstrate that observed Fig. 1 Predicted range of mohua (darkened areas) 1,000 years before present, in 1840 and in 2007 (courtesy of C. O’Donnell, Dept. of Conservation). Extant populations (2007) are circled for clarity 123 Conserv Genet (2011) 12:517–526 contemporary genetic structure is a consequence of anthropogenic effects and is not indicative of pre-fragmentation patterns. Materials and methods Species background New Zealand biodiversity and landscapes have been drastically affected by the arrival and expansion of Polynesian and European peoples 750 and 150 years ago, respectively (Wilmshurst et al. 2008). Humans have significantly changed the landscape through burning and clear-felling large tracts of forest and introducing exotic mammalian predators. Introduced predators, such as stoats (Mustela erminea), ship rats (Rattus rattus) and brushtail possums (Trichosurus vulpecula) pose a severe threat to many native bird species, including mohua (King 1984). Mohua are currently listed as ‘endangered’ by the IUCN Red List of Threatened Species (IUCN 2010) and as ‘nationally endangered’ by the New Zealand Threat Classification System List (Hitchmough et al. 2007). Mohua were once widespread across the South Island until the late nineteenth century, prior to rapid disappearance from some areas (Fig. 1). In recent years, their patchy distribution has become further reduced (Gaze 1985; O’Donnell et al. 2002). In their remaining habitat, mohua are particularly vulnerable to intense periodic predation during stoat irruptions that follow beech masting events (O’Donnell 1996). Management includes exotic predator trapping and reintroduction to island sanctuaries and trapped areas on the mainland (O’Donnell et al. 2002). Mohua have been translocated to eight offshore island sanctuaries, two mainland islands and one mainland site between the years of 1992 and 2008. For a full description of mohua translocation history see Tracy (2008). Removing immediate threats, such as introduced predators, is clearly the main concern for conservation of mohua; however, if populations stabilize, whether it is within their remaining range, in captive-rearing programs, or on island sanctuaries, Conserv Genet (2011) 12:517–526 ensuring long-term viability by maximizing genetic diversity becomes an important management strategy (Jamieson et al. 2008; Pujol and Pannell 2008). Sampling A total of 60 historic mohua toe pad samples (Mundy et al. 1997) were acquired from 12 museum collections worldwide (Online Resource 1). DNA was successfully extracted and amplified from 56 of the historic samples. Samples were obtained only from individuals for which both the collection date and location were known (Fig. 2a). We used samples collected between 1872 and 1939 (median 1892), which includes the early phase of major mohua decline, from across the South Island of New Zealand (Gaze 1985). Additionally, we used two samples from Stewart Island collected sometime before their extinction there in the 1960s. Most samples were categorized into four regions: Otago, Fiordland, Canterbury and Nelson. Samples outside these regions are included in analyses that use individual by individual comparisons. Samples were grouped into regions based on their proximity, historical habitat gaps and divisions by mountain ranges (i.e. Southern Alps separate Taramakau from Canterbury) (Fig. 2a). While errors in museum records are always possible, we have no reason to doubt the reliability of historic geographic details given for any of our samples specifically (Marty 2005). A total of 157 contemporary samples were analyzed. Mohua (145) were sampled in 2006 and 2007 from six key sites within their remaining range, including the Landsborough Valley, Dart Valley, Murchison Mountains, Rowallan Forest, Catlins Forest and Blue Mountains (Fig. 2b). An additional 12 birds were sampled from sites where only a handful of birds remain (Eglinton, Hurunui, 519 and Caples Valleys). Because these sample sizes were too small for population comparisons, they were only used in analyses that incorporate samples on an individual basis. Mohua were captured in mist-nets and blood (10–50 ll) was taken by venipuncture of the brachial vein and stored in lysis buffer (Seutin et al. 1991). For nine samples, DNA was extracted from other tissue, including: freshly plucked contour feathers (6), toe pad tissue from recently deceased birds (2) and tissue from an embryo of a failed nest (1). In order to ensure that the same bird was not sampled twice, birds were banded with a unique metal band, except in the Blue Mountains where retrospective analysis using microsatellite genotypes confirmed that each sample was only represented once. Mohua are cooperative breeders with a primary breeding pair and several ‘helpers’ which may be related (Elliott 1990). A minimum of seven mistnet sites were sampled within each population to ensure that multiple family groups were represented. Unfortunately, mohua no longer occur in many of the sites where they were sampled (i.e. collected) historically, but our samples do represent a random distribution of extant populations within each time period. Incomplete overlap between historical and contemporary sampling sites should not affect our general estimates of loss of genetic diversity, but it could have implications for comparisons of genetic structure. If anything, we would expect to see greater evidence for isolation by distance among historic samples because historic samples were collected over a much greater linear distance (Fig. 2a). DNA extraction Historic DNA extractions were performed on one half to one whole toe pad (Mundy et al. 1997). Samples were first washed and re-hydrated overnight in 1 ml 10 mM Fig. 2 Locations and sample sizes for historic and contemporary mohua. a Historic samples are represented with triangles. Curved lines indicate historic regions used in population analyses. b Contemporary mainland samples used in population analyses are represented with closed circles and marked in bold. Open circles indicate contemporary mainland sites used only in individual-byindividual comparisons 123 520 Tris–HCl pH 8 (Austin and Melville 2006) and were subsequently finely cut into small pieces. DNA was extracted either with the Invitrogen ChargeSwitch Forensic DNA Purification Kit or the Qiagen DNEasy Kit following the animal tissue spin column protocol (all buffers provided, manufacturer protocols followed). With the Qiagen DNeasy extractions, the DNA was eluted twice with 200 ll Buffer AE. All analyses used DNA from the first elution. Ten percent of Invitrogen extractions were repeated with the Qiagen DNeasy kit to confirm the reliability of genotypes identified by this method. Contamination can be a common occurrence when working with older tissues, such as museum skins (Pääbo et al. 2004; Wandeler et al. 2007). Extensive measures were taken to ensure that our results were authentic. All extractions and amplification set-up took place in a UV hood in a designated historic DNA laboratory which was located on a different floor from any laboratory in which contemporary mohua samples or any avian post-PCR products had ever been. Further, no materials or clothing from the PCR lab were ever moved to the historic DNA lab. One negative control was performed for each extraction and amplification with at least one for every batch of 9 extractions and at least one for every batch of 11 amplifications to monitor for contamination. Replicate extractions were performed for 10% of samples, chosen randomly. In addition to contamination, there is also concern that allele drop-out and artefact alleles (false PCR-generated bands) may lead to false genotypes when using historic DNA (Sefc et al. 2003). For historic samples, we calculated allele drop-out rate and artefact allele rate by replicating 55% of heterozygous genotypes (89 replicated heterozygous genotypes totalling 208 PCR reactions). We found an allele drop-out rate of less than 1% (2/208). Although the allele drop-out rate was extremely low compared to other studies (14% in Miller and Waits 2003 and 12–19% in Sefc et al. 2003), we minimized any risk of genotyping errors due to allele drop-out by replicating each homozygous genotype at least twice. Artefact alleles were not observed in the subset of replicated heterozygous genotypes. Contemporary DNA was extracted from blood samples using a Chelex resin protocol with 40 lg proteinase K in 5% Chelex (Biorad; Walsh et al. 1991). DNA was extracted from feather, toe pad, and embryo samples using the Qiagen DNeasy Kit as outlined above. A negative control was performed with each extraction to test for contamination. Microsatellite marker identification and amplification We identified 11 polymorphic microsatellite markers developed for 8 species (Online Resource 2; Primmer et al. 1995, 1996; Crooijmans et al. 1997; Double et al. 1997; 123 Conserv Genet (2011) 12:517–526 Stenzler and Fitzpatrick 2002). Polymerase chain reaction (PCR) was carried out on an Eppendorf Mastercycler ep. For contemporary samples, PCR was carried out in a total of 5 ll, containing 0.25 units Bioline MangoTaq DNA Polymerase, 0.5 lM of each forward and reverse primer, 0.8 mM dNTPs, 19 Bioline MangoTaq Colored Reaction Buffer, and 1.5 mM MgCl2. Historic samples were treated similarly as above, except using 10 ll reactions containing 0.5 units Bioline MangoTaq DNA Polymerase. Amplification conditions were optimized for each locus (Online Resource 2). The PCR profile typically consisted of 2.5 min at 92°C, followed by 30–40 cycles of 30 s at 92°C, 30 s at annealing temperature and 30 s at 72°C followed by a final extension at 72°C for 4.5 min. PCR products were resolved on polyacrylamide gels and visualized with SYBR green I (Invitrogen). Individuals expressing all known alleles were run, along with a 10 bp ladder on each gel as size standards. Scoring, Hardy–Weinberg equilibrium, linkage disequilibrium Before statistical analysis was carried out, MicroChecker (Van Oosterhout et al. 2004) was used to check for scoring error due to stuttering, large allele drop-out, and null alleles. Deviations from Hardy–Weinberg proportions and genotypic linkage disequilibrium (Fisher’s exact tests) were calculated using GENEPOP v. 4.0 (Raymond and Rousset 1995). Deviations from Hardy–Weinberg equilibrium were tested using the exact probability test (Guo and Thompson 1992), with markov chain parameters set at 10,000 dememorizations, 1,000 batches and 10,000 iterations. Sequential Bonferroni corrections for multiple comparisons were applied where appropriate. Genetic diversity Levels of genetic diversity were quantified using both standardized allelic richness calculated with the rarefaction method in Fstat version 2.9.3.2 (Goudet 1995) and mean expected heterozygosity (HE) calculated in GENETIX v. 4.05 (Belkhir et al. 2004). Statistical comparisons between groups for both allelic richness and heterozygosity were matched by loci and tested using pairwise Wilcoxon signed-rank tests in JMP 7.0.2 (SAS Institute Inc. 2007). Loss of genetic diversity within the extant range was assessed by comparing contemporary samples with historic samples that were collected over the same general region (i.e. all mainland samples south of Canterbury) and excluded the contemporary Hurunui population due to its extremely small population size of approximately 10 individuals (G. Elliott pers. comm.). The remaining loss of allelic richness was attributed to extinction of entire Conserv Genet (2011) 12:517–526 regions and was calculated from the difference between overall loss and loss within the extant range. Genetic structure Changes in population structure over time were assessed using two methods, each with its own advantages: isolation by distance on population and individual levels and factorial correspondence analysis. In a preliminary analysis we also performed a Bayesian cluster analysis implemented in the program STRUCTURE (Pritchard et al. 2000). This method produced similar results as the other two analyses. However, because the data did not conform precisely to an ideal structure model of discrete populations, but rather resembled a classic pattern of isolation by distance (Pritchard et al. 2007), we do not present the results from this third method. First, we assessed patterns of isolation by distance. Population differentiation among contemporary populations and among historic regions was measured using the h estimator (Weir and Cockerham 1984) of Wright’s (1969) FST in GENETIX v. 4.05 (Belkhir et al. 2004). Significance levels (0.05) were assessed using 1,000 permutations. Only populations with minimum sample size of seven were included (Fig. 2). In both time periods, the relationship between genetic divergence and geographic distance was explored graphically by plotting both pairwise FST and FST/(1 - FST) (Rousset 1997) against geographic distance in kilometres. The relationship was tested using Mantel tests in GENEPOP v. 4.0 (Raymond and Rousset 1995). Analysis with distance versus either FST or FST/(1 - FST) produced similar results, so only distance versus FST is presented. To exclude the possibility of individuals caught at the same mist-net being related and hence causing inflated FST values, the above analyses were repeated using a minimized contemporary data set, where only one randomly selected individual caught at each mist-net site was included. Analysis of isolation by distance was also carried out on an individual basis which included samples that do not fall within a thoroughly sampled population or region. This is especially important for assessing historic patterns, as not all samples belonged to a particular region. Isolation by distance was calculated using pairwise individual-by-individual genetic (d2) (Peakall et al. 1995) and geographic (kilometres) distance matrices and Mantel tests using the program GenAlEx (Peakall and Smouse 2006). For both population and individuals analyses, slopes between trendlines were compared using t tests with degrees of freedom estimated from the matrix size (N) (Manly 2007) and standard error values approximated from Mantel P values. ANCOVA tests were also performed to test the difference of slopes between time periods and showed similar results. 521 However, because the data points are not independent, we present the more conservative t test with lower degrees of freedom. Secondly, population structure in each time period was visualized using factorial correspondence analysis (FCA) by population in GENETIX v. 4.05 (Belkhir et al. 2004). FCA is used to investigate the genetic similarity of individuals based on allele frequencies and genotypes. FCA by population compares genotypes of individuals within the dataset and plots individuals on two composite axes that optimize the differences between the analyzed individuals using the average inertia of predefined groups. Results Amplification, scoring, Hardy–Weinberg, linkage disequilibrium All 157 contemporary samples amplified at all loci, except for feather samples at two loci, corresponding to a 100% extraction success and [99% amplification success (range = 0.82–1.0). Of 60 historic samples, 56 were successfully extracted, indicating 93.3% extraction success. There was 88.4% amplification success for historic samples from which DNA was extracted (range = 0.36–1.0). For historic DNA, we encountered less than 1% allele drop-out rate and no incidents of artefact alleles, which were calculated from 208 replicate PCR reactions of 89 heterozygous genotypes. Replicate extractions and negative controls detected no contamination during the extraction or amplification processes. Analysis by MICROCHECKER (Van Oosterhout et al. 2004) revealed no scoring error due to stuttering or large allele drop-out. All populations and loci were in Hardy–Weinberg equilibrium apart from one population (Landsborough) at one locus (Hru7) which showed homozygote excess. There was no evidence for linkage disequilibrium. Changes in genetic diversity We estimate that mohua have experienced a significant loss (22.6%) of allelic richness over the last 100 years (Table 1). Nearly half of this estimated loss (9.6%) has occurred within the contemporary range, whereas the remaining proportion (13.0%) reflects loss of alleles due to extinction of entire regions (Table 1). Differences in heterozygosity (HE) between historic and contemporary samples were not significant (Table 1). When considering genetic diversity among contemporary populations, the Dart Valley and Blue Mountains exhibited highest levels of allelic richness, both significantly higher than the Murchison Mountains (Fig. 3). The Dart Valley further showed 123 522 Conserv Genet (2011) 12:517–526 Table 1 Comparison of genetic diversity in contemporary populations relative to historic populations in all samples and excluding extinct regions, in mohua Populations compared All samples Excluding extinct regions Time period Historic n HO HE T P Alleles per locus Allelic richness T P Loss of allelic richness (%) -0.407 0.346 3.73 3.64 -2.405 0.019 22.6 3.27 2.82 3.00 3.18 2.88 2.60 -1.554 0.076 9.6 56 0.310 0.365 Contemporary 157 0.324 0.351 Historic Contemporary 27 155 0.290 0.327 0.349 0.352 0.064 0.527 Fig. 3 Allelic richness of contemporary populations. Horizontal brackets indicate populations with significant differences in allelic richness based on Wilcoxon paired sign-rank tests and P \ 0.05. Vertical bars are standard error. Populations have been reduced to varying degrees, with population size estimates from Department of Conservation Surveys indicating Dart/Caples (5000), Catlins (2000), Blue Mountains (500), Landsborough (300), Rowallan (100), Murchison Mountains (100), Eglinton (20) and Hurunui (10) significantly higher allelic richness than the Landsborough. The Rowallan Forest and Catlins Forest populations displayed intermediate levels of allelic richness (Fig. 3). Expected heterozygosities of contemporary populations ranged from 0.29 to 0.37, but were not significantly different. Changes in population structure We employed two approaches to determine genetic population structure: isolation by distance analysis by population and by individual, and factorial correspondence analysis (FCA). Each analysis confirms that there is a strong pattern of genetic structure among contemporary samples that did not exist historically. The correlation between genetic distance (FST) and geographic distance (kilometres) showed a highly significant relationship among contemporary populations, but no corresponding relationship historically (Fig. 4; for a table 123 Fig. 4 Isolation by distance patterns in contemporary and historic samples. The difference between contemporary and historic slopes is significant (P \ 0.01). Contemporary: R2 = 0.530, P = 0.010. Historic: R2 = 0.113, P = 0.125. A table of FST values that generated this graph are available in Online Resource 3 of values that generated this graph, see Online Resource 3). Even though the historic populations occurred over a greater geographic distance (see the x axis of Fig. 4), the slope of the trend in contemporary samples (0.0009, SE = 0.00023) was nine times steeper than in the historic samples (0.0001, SE = 0.00005) (df = 10, t = 3.20, P = 0.010). When only one randomly selected individual was selected from each mist-net site, the same pattern of isolation by distance emerged, with an identical slope (0.0009), negligible change in intercept (-0.061) and R2 value (0.543), and significant isolation by distance (P \ 0.001). The slope was still significantly different from the historic samples (df = 10, t = 11.2, P \ 0.001). This allowed us to rule out the possibility that the higher FST values among the contemporary populations were due to catching related individuals in the same mist-net. Analysis of isolation by distance on the individual level confirmed the results of isolation by distance analysis using FST values between populations. Contemporary samples showed a significant pattern of isolation by distance (P \ 0.001), whereas historic samples did not (P = 0.113). The slope of the trend in contemporary samples (0.00162) Conserv Genet (2011) 12:517–526 523 due to extinction of birds from entire regions, but almost as much was due to loss within extant populations (see Table 1). Mohua have been restricted to isolated populations in 3% of their original range (Robertson et al. 2007) and have become extinct in some regions (i.e. Nelson) while other populations have remained relatively large ([1,000 individuals). It is likely that loss of genetic diversity over time is related to both range reduction and fragmentation and decrease in population size. Change in genetic structure Fig. 5 Factorial correspondence analysis by population illustrates patterns of genetic structure among a historic regions and b contemporary populations was 6.5 times steeper than in the historic samples (0.00025) and this difference was significant (df = 213, t = 3.17, P \ 0.001). Genetic structure in each time period was visualized using factorial correspondence analysis (FCA) by population. This illustration confirms the trends observed in isolation by distance analysis. Historically, some structure between regions is observed (Fig. 5a); however, there is evidence of greater structure over much shorter distances among contemporary populations (Fig. 5b). For example, the population furthest north (Landsborough) is distinct from the two populations in the southeast (Catlins and Blue Mountains) in that their distributions across the FCA plot do not overlap, with samples from populations found in between these two areas plotted intermediately (Fig. 5b). Discussion Loss of genetic diversity Mohua have lost a significant amount of allelic richness (22.6%) over the last 100 years. Close to half of this was A clear pattern of genetic structure was detected among contemporary mohua populations that was not explained by historic population structure alone. This was supported by evidence from isolation by distance analysis at the population and individual levels and factorial correspondence analysis. The structure observed among contemporary populations could be described as a pattern of isolation by distance, which describes increasing genetic differences among populations separated by increasing geographical distance and is usually explained by varying levels of gene flow across a landscape (Rousset 1997). However, we suggest a similar pattern may appear in a declining species in which the populations on the periphery of its range have experienced the greatest gene flow restriction for the longest period of time. Greater genetic differentiation in peripheral populations compared with central strongholds has been documented in many cases (Eckert et al. 2008; Rogell et al. 2010). Patterns of isolation by distance were not always observed (Rogell et al. 2010), but a more linear landscape may result in the appearance of isolation by distance. If peripheral populations are more vulnerable to genetic drift, then one may expect little scatter in an isolation by distance analysis, as we see in this study. Historic samples were collected over a wide time period (1872–1939) even though the major decline in mohua range occurred in the late nineteenth century (Gaze 1985). Although an earlier and shorter time-frame for the historic samples would have been ideal, this was not possible given the limited museum collections. Importantly, we do not expect the time-frame over which the historic samples were collected to have affected the overall conclusions. If some genetic diversity had been lost before or during the historic sampling period, then the reported values represent a minimum loss of genetic diversity. If changes in genetic structure had occurred during but not after the historic sampling period, then we would not have been able to detect a temporal change in genetic structure, yet clear differences in structure were apparent between the two sampling periods. Although contemporary and historic sample sites do not cover the same areas in all cases we would have expected 123 524 to see greater differences in Fst values among historic samples simply because they were collected over a much greater linear distance (see Fig. 4). In fact, we found less evidence for isolation by distance in historic samples, and therefore conclude that the stronger pattern of isolation by distance in contemporary populations emerged between the two sampling periods. When genetic structure is seen among contemporary populations, it is important for conservation purposes to determine whether this pattern is a natural remnant of historic population structure or whether it is the result of more recent, human-induced changes. In the case of mohua, it is clear that the observed pattern of isolation by distance is not a remnant of the past; rather, it is induced by recent anthropogenic events. In support of this conclusion, it is known that at least one population (Landsborough) underwent a population bottleneck down to *14 individuals in 1992 (O’Donnell 1996). This has resulted in a shift of allele frequencies which differentiates it from other populations (Online Resource 3, 4). Two other populations in the southeast (Blue Mountains and Catlins) have also experienced similar shifts in allele frequencies but to a lesser extent, although neither population has undergone known bottlenecks as severe as seen in the Landsborough Valley. Most of the detected differences over time and between populations reflect losses of rare alleles and changes in allele frequencies, rather than losses of common alleles (Online Resource 4). Most of the historic genetic diversity of the current range still exists, but allele frequencies are changing, especially in longer isolated areas. Although changes in allele frequencies alone would not necessarily translate into decreased adaptability, they are an early warning sign of genetic endangerment (Gilpin and Soule 1986). If the populations are declining due to extrinsic factors, then genetic factors are mostly irrelevant in terms of short-term extinction risk (Jamieson 2007a, b; Jamieson et al. 2008). However, if management action can stabilize threatened populations, then ensuring the longterm viability of these managed populations through maximizing genetic diversity becomes important, otherwise genetic drift could lead to further loss of genetic variability and consequent increase in extinction risk for local populations. In this study we used neutral nuclear microsatellite markers, which presumably indicate variation across the genome (see Li et al. 2002 for discussion of this issue). In the future, a study of variation in functional genes, such as in the major histocompatibility complex (Mhc) which affects immune function, may be useful to assess loss of genetic diversity at specific functional genes (Westerdahl et al. 2000; Hansson and Richardson 2005). 123 Conserv Genet (2011) 12:517–526 Implications for conservation Increases in population structure due to anthropogenic events have been seen in other species of conservation concern including the Spanish imperial eagle (Aquila adalberti), the Canadian peregrine falcon (Falco peregrinus), the Northeastern beach tiger beetle (Cicindela dorsalis dorsalis) of the United States, and the common hamster (Cricetus cricetus) in the Netherlands (MartinezCruz et al. 2007; Brown et al. 2007; Goldstein and DeSalle 2003; Smulders et al. 2003). In each case, it was concluded that the current spatial structure has no evolutionary significance and that isolated fragments should be managed as a whole. Our study of mohua reveals another case where current population structure of strong isolation by distance cannot be explained by pre-fragmentation patterns. Our results also suggest that it would be appropriate to mix mohua populations in cases where it may be beneficial. For example, the Hurunui population of mohua in Canterbury, and the Eglinton population in Fiordland (maximum of 10 and 20 remaining individuals each) are receiving intensive predator control to protect mohua and other endangered species (G. Elliott, pers. comm.). Assuming the predator control measures are successful, it may be beneficial to transfer birds from another area to augment the small Hurunui populations to prevent inbreeding. When mixing of populations is critical to the survival of the species, populations that are most similar genetically and in terms of local adaptation are preferable (Edmands 2007). Our results suggest that mixing mohua populations is suitable, at least from a genetic perspective, because historically there were minimal genetic differences. On the other hand, mixing of mohua populations in order to restore gene flow may not be immediately necessary for two reasons. First, the differences between populations are mostly due to varying allele frequencies rather than unique alleles. Second, intentional mixing should only be used for populations that are severely genetically depauperate or are clearly suffering from inbreeding depression (Edmands 2007). Inbreeding depression is difficult to detect in wild populations, but there has been no indication that even the most diverged populations, such as the Landsborough and Catlins, are suffering from inbreeding induced population declines (Department of Conservation, unpublished surveys). This recommendation does not preclude the need for mixing populations in the future, especially if they remain isolated and experience a prolonged and severe bottleneck. Additionally, we recommend that when mohua are transferred to predator-free island sanctuaries, it is preferable to source birds from populations that have maintained Conserv Genet (2011) 12:517–526 higher levels of genetic diversity, such as the Dart Valley or the Blue Mountains, although sourcing a large number of founders should be the first priority. If attaining a sufficient number of founders is difficult due to logistical constraints, then adding or sourcing birds from a slightly less genetically diverse source would be suitable. Overall, we conclude that evidence from genetic analysis of historical and contemporary populations of mohua does not necessarily justify augmentation to restore gene flow, but can be useful for deciding whether to mix populations and for identifying suitable source populations for reintroductions. We give an example where historic patterns of genetic structure give insight into the interpretation of contemporary genetic structure. Genetic structure among contemporary populations alone cannot confirm the existence of separate units prior to fragmentation and isolation. This study highlights the importance of museum specimens in threatened species conservation (Wandeler et al. 2007; Leonard 2008). Acknowledgments We are grateful to the New Zealand Department of Conservation, including H. Edmonds, R. Cole, C. O’Donnell, G. Elliott, J. Kemp and especially to G. Loh and B. Lawrence for logistical support and collection of samples. We are also grateful to M. Efford, D. Dawson, R. Laws, R. Paterson, N. Babbage, B. Rhodes, B. Masuda, M. Somerville, G. Pickerell and D. Hegg for assistance in the field. Laboratory work was greatly facilitated by T. King and B. Star. We are indebted to S. Boessenkool for her advice and support in the laboratory, discussion of ideas and comments which greatly improved the manuscript. We thank all of the museums listed in Online Resource 1 for their willingness to contribute tissue samples. Funding for this research was provided by the Department of Conservation and Landcare Research (contract no. C09X0503), the University of Otago, Forest and Bird JS Watson Trust and N. Babbage of Mohua Inc. LNT was supported by the University of Otago Postgraduate Scholarship and Publishing Bursary. Permits to conduct this research included Department of Conservation research permits (SO21285-FAU) and a University of Otago Animal Ethics permit (87/05). 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