11/1/2012
The Challenge
The more levels of developmental
courses a student must go through,
the less likely that student is to ever
complete college English or Math.
Path 2 Stats
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Bailey, Thomas. (February 2009).
Rethinking Developmental Education.
CCRC Brief. Community College
Research Center. Teachers College,
Columbia
University.
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Nationwide Data
256,672 first-time degree-seeking students
from 57 colleges participating in Achieving the Dream
Students’ initial math
placement in
developmental
sequence
% of students who
successfully complete
college level gatekeeper
course in math
1 Level Below College
27%
2 Levels Below College
20%
3 Levels Below College
10%
Referral, Enrollment, and Completion in Developmental Education Sequences in
Community Colleges (CCRC Working Paper No. 15). By: Thomas Bailey, Dong Wook
Jeong & Sung-Woo Cho. December 2008. New York: Community College Research
Center, Teachers College, Columbia University. (Revised November 2009).
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WHY?
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11/1/2012
The Multiplication Principle
Let’s assume 75%
success and
persistence rates
100 take pre-algebra
75 pass pre-algebra
56 take algebra
42 pass algebra
32 take alg2
24 pass alg2
18 take stats
14 pass
stats
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Increasing success/persistence rates
does not help…
If this was the
student’s initial
placement…
And these were the
rates at which they
passed each class and
persisted to the next
class in the sequence…
70%
80%
90%
1 level below transfer
34%
51%
73%
2 levels below transfer
17%
33%
59%
3 levels below transfer
8%
21%
48%
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Every extra
course a
student takes
adds two
/( $ . $ * ( 32 ,1 76
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“Stupifiny”
Shorten the pipeline!
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Course Themes
Assumptions
• Working Backward
• Passionate, open-minded teachers
– Prepare students for statistics and
statistics only
• Learning Through Playing with Data
– Exploratory versus discovery
– Tinker Plots by Key Curriculum Press
• Project-Based Learning
• Extensive professional development
• A predetermined minimum skill set…
– Every unit begins and ends with a project
• Growth Versus Fixed Mindset
– “Brainiology: Transforming Students’
Motivation to Learn”, Dweck
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Students will be able to:
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Students will be able to:
• Formulate questions that can be
addressed with data, then organize,
display, and analyze relevant data
to address these questions and
communicate results
• Apply the basic principles of study
design to develop and analyze the
validity of simple experiments and
sampling plans related to a given
situation and goal
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• At least 2 hours/week in a computer
lab with Tinker Plots
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• Demonstrate numerical and algebraic
reasoning skills to support statistical
analysis
• Construct, use, and interpret
mathematical models, specifically
linear and exponential functions, to
represent relationships in quantitative
data
• Use effective learning strategies for
success in college
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How Many Successfully Completed
STATISTICS IN Two Years?
Initial
COURSE
Results
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Compare Class
SUCCESS RATES
Size of Rate of COHORT COMPLETION
COURSE
Rate of COMPLETION
Pre‐Algebra
507
42
8.28%
Algebra
598
100
16.72%
Algebra 2
651
193
29.65%
Path 2 Stats
120
71
59.17%
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Thank You
Rate of SUCCESS
Pre‐Algebra
507
82.05%
65.88%
Algebra
633
74.57%
56.87%
Algebra 2
651
77.42%
54.99%
Path 2 Stats
84
95.83%
88.33%
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Size of Number
COHORT COMPLETED
Lily Lum
City College of San Francisco
[email protected]
Hal Huntsman
City College of San Francisco
[email protected]
Tue Rust
Los Medanos College
[email protected]
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4
TERM
2009FA
2009FA
2009FA
09FA, 10SP
TERM
09FA‐10SP
09FA‐10SP
09FA‐10SP
09FA‐10SP
09FA, 10SP
COURSE
Pre‐Algebra
Algebra
Algebra 2
Path 2 Stats
Placement
Total
Transfer
Algebra 2
Algebra
Pre‐Alg/Arith
COHORT
507
598
651
120
COHORT
120
3
22
32
55
HOW MANY SUCCESSFULLY COMPLETED Statistics BY THE END OF SUMMER 2011 (end of Fall 2011 for 10SP cohort)
PATH 2 STATS DATA DATA ARE DISAGREGATED BY INITIAL MATH PLACEMENT
(8 of the 120 students did not take the assessment test)
OUTCOME
42
100
193
71
SUCCESSFUL
COMPLETION RATE
8.28%
16.72%
29.65%
59.17%
OUTCOME
71
3
18
25
21
SUCCESSFUL
COMPLETION RATE
59.17%
100.00%
81.82%
78.13%
38.18%
Calculation: Successful Completion Rate = Outcome/Cohort
Class Completion Rates Comparison
TERM
COURSE
ENROLLMENT
COMPLETION
COMP. RATE
SUCCESS
SUCC. RATE
2009FA
Pre‐Algebra
507
416
82.05%
334
65.88%
2009FA
Algebra
633
472
74.57%
360
56.87%
2009FA
Algebra 2
651
504
77.42%
358
54.99%
2009FA
Path 2 Stats
29
28
96.55%
22
75.86%
2010SP
Path 2 Stats
36
36
100.00%
35
97.22%
2010FA
Path 2 Stats
55
51
92.73%
49
89.09%
Definition Enrollment : A student is considered to have been enrolled in a course if the student received an end‐of‐term grade notation that is displayed on their official transcript. Grade notations indicating valid enrollment: A, B, C, D, F, I*, P, NP, RD, W Completion Rate (formerly Retention Rate II) : Percentage of students who do not withdraw from class and who receive a valid grade. Numerator: A, B, C, D, F, I*, NC, NP, P, RD Denominator: A, B, C, CR, D, F, I*, NC, NP, P, RD, W Success Rate: Percentage of students who receive a passing/satisfactory grade. Numerator: A, B, C, IA, IB, IC, IPP, P Denominator: A, B, C, CR, D, F, ID, IF, INP, P, NC, NP, W LMC-UC Statistics Articulation Issue
I. What is the rationale for developing a Statistics pathway for non-STEM majors in
lieu of the traditional algebra sequence? Why did Los Medanos College initiate such
an apparently disruptive innovation?
A. Attrition in the Remedial Math Pipeline in Community Colleges
The more levels of remedial courses a student must go through, the less likely the student
will ever complete a college math course.
National Data: 256,672 first-time degree-seeking students from 57 community colleges
participating in the Achieving the Dream initiative
Students’ initial enrollment in remedial math sequence
1 level below college (Intermediate Algebra)
2 levels below college (Elementary Algebra)
3 or more levels below college (Pre-algebra/Arithmetic)
% of students who
successfully complete a
college-level math course
27%
20%
10%
Source: Referral, Enrollment, and Completion in Developmental Education Sequences in Community
Colleges (CCRC Working Paper No. 15). By: Thomas Bailey, Dong Wook & Sung-Woo Cho. December
2008. New York: Community College Research Center, Teachers College, Columbia University.
LMC data: Fall 2009 remedial math enrollments tracked through Spring 2012
Students’ initial enrollment in remedial math sequence
1 level below college (LMC Math 30)
2 levels below college (LMC Math 25)
3 or more levels below college (LMC Math 4,9, and 12)
% of students who
successfully complete a
college-level math course
37% (121 of 325)
18% (57 of 315)
10% (64 of 619)
Source: Basic Skills Cohort Tracker, DataMart
http://datamart.cccco.edu/Outcomes/BasicSkills_Cohort_Tracker.aspx
Data includes repeaters.
Attrition in the remedial math pipeline has a disproportionate impact on students of
color.
For example, in California, black and Latino students are much more likely to be placed
3-4 levels below college math. According to a 2010 EdSource study “Course taking
patterns, policies, and practices in developmental education in California Community
Colleges” by Perry, Bahr, Rosin, and Woodward, 61% of Black students and 53% of
Latino students placed 3-4 levels below college math in California community colleges,
compared to 34% of White students. At LMC on average 80% of incoming students
assess below college-level math, but placement data disaggregated by ethnicity (as done
by Perry, et. al.) is not available. But some insight can be gained from a further analysis
of the 2009 LMC cohort enrolled in remedial math. Of those enrolled in remedial math,
74% were enrolled in a course 2 or more levels below college, with 72% of remediating
Black students in math courses 3-4 levels below college math, compared to 51% of
remediating Latinos and 40% of remediating Whites.
High rates of attrition are inevitable given the length of the remedial pipeline.
For students enrolled in Elementary Algebra, the pipeline to and through a transferable
math course has 5 exit points and we lose significant numbers of students at each point.
This is illustrated with the LMC Fall 2009 Elementary Algebra cohort (tracked through
Spring 2012).
68% (215 of 315) pass Elementary Algebra
Of those who pass, 83% (178 of 215) enroll in Intermediate Algebra*
Of those who enroll, 66% (118 of 178) pass Intermediate Algebra**
Of those who pass, 73% (86 of 118) enroll in a college-level math course*
Of those who enroll, 72% (62 of 86) pass the college-level course**
* Enrollment counts are taken at 1st census.
** Passing is a C or better.
As a result, only 20% of the cohort passed a college-level math course in 3 years:
(0.68)(0.83)(0.66)(0.73)(0.72) = 0.20, which is 62 of 315
Can we improve the college course completion rate to an acceptable level by improving
course success rates and course-to-course persistence rates? Unfortunately, the answer is
no. For example, if success and persistence rates were an unprecedented 85%, the
completion rate would only be 44%, 0.85^5, which is a huge improvement but an
unacceptable general outcome.
Our conclusion: If the goal is to increase the college math completion rate for underprepared students, we must shorten the remedial course pipeline AND still prepare
students adequately for the rigors of the college math course that is appropriate for their
major.
B. Student Pathways
Most LMC students want a 4-year degree, but they are not STEM majors. Of those
completing the remedial math sequence and enrolling in a college math course, on
average 80% take Statistics (and no other college math course) to meet the mathematical
concepts and quantitative reasoning requirement for IGETC.
C. Misalignment of Remedial Content with Statistics
Very little algebra is needed to be successful in college-level Statistics. In our analysis of
topics traditionally taught in Elementary and Intermediate Algebra about 15% were
relevant to building skills used in the study of Statistics. Similarly, in our conversations
with faculty teaching courses typically taken by non-STEM students in other IGETC
areas only a small subset of algebra skills were truly requisite to the work in those
courses.
II. Our Solution
We shortened the pipeline to Statistics for non-STEM majors by replacing the traditional
remedial sequence with a single intensive pre-stats course. Since articulation with UC
and CSU requires Intermediate Algebra or the equivalent as a pre-requisite, we designed
backwards from Statistics and created a course (Math 27, a.k.a. Path2Stats) that the LMC
Math Department and Curriculum Committee deemed equivalent to Intermediate Algebra
in depth, scope and rigor. STEM students still take the traditional algebra path.
Math 27 is a project-based course in which students investigate large and complex data
sets to answer open-ended questions. In the context of these investigations, we develop a
toolbox of data analysis techniques to analyze univariate and bivariate quantitative and
categorical data. The level of rigor as defined by the type of analysis and reasoning
required in the projects is higher than that found in traditional algebra courses that focus
on procedural skills and template problems. The scope of the course is broad, covering
topics from arithmetic, algebra, and statistics. The course delves into exploratory data
analysis at a depth that exceeds the treatment of this content in college Statistics.
III. The Results

Significantly higher completion rates of college-level math
To date, 58% of the 151 Path2Stats students have completed transferable math, compared
to 19% of developmental students overall. This improvement in transferable math
completion rates is seen in all math placement groups. In a study of the 119 students in
the 1st two cohorts, Path2Stats students completed transferable math at 2.2 to 4.3 times
the rates of students with comparable math placement who took the traditional algebra
sequence. See disaggregation by placement level in the next table.
Student placement in
traditional math sequence
LMC Path2Stats:
% of Math 27
students passing
Statistics (in 1 year)
Transfer-level
Intermediate Algebra
Elementary Algebra
100% (3 of 3)
82% (18 of 22)
78% (25 of 32)
Pre-algebra or Arithmetic
Unknown Placement
Overall Completion Rate
38% (21 of 55)
57% (4 of 7)
60% (71 of 119)
LMC Traditional
Path: % of remedial
students passing any
college math course
(in 3 years)
National
Data
37% (121 of 325)
18% (57 of 315)
27%
20%
10% (64 of 619)
10%
19% (242 of 1259)
20%
Source: CCCCD Office of Institutional Research

Comparable performance in Statistics as measured by course success rates
Student performance in
Statistics (Math 34)
Pass (A, B, C, or P)
Fail (D or F)
Withdraw (W)
From Path2Stats
(Math 27)
73% (74 of 101)
13% (13 of 101)
14% (14 of 101)
From Intermediate
Algebra (Math 30)
74% (772 of 1041)
10% (100 of 1041)
16% (169 of 1041)
No remediation at
LMC
69% (1054 of 1523)
11% (162 of 1523)
20% (310 of 1523)
Source: CCCCD Office of Institutional Research

Achievement of learning outcomes as measured by departmental final exam
assessment
In college Statistics, the first Path2Stats cohort outperformed the Honors section on the
departmental final exam. In the most recent assessment of learning outcomes in college
Statistics, 100% of Path2Stats students were rated proficient or better on 2 of 3 learning
outcomes; 82% were proficient on the 3rd. On items from the Comprehensive
Assessment of Outcomes for a first course in Statistics (CAOS), Path2Stats students
overall performance was within 3% of the national average.

A window into the Path2Stats classroom
For a 5-minute window into the Path2Stats (Math 27) classroom, go to
http://vimeo.com/9055488. This video was created by an LMC student, Jose Reynoso
with footage from the 6th week of an 18-week semester in the pre-stats course. The
students featured in the opening segment placed into arithmetic, elementary algebra or
intermediate algebra. Can you tell who is who?