Current Population Status and Distribution of Large Herbivores and
Floodplain Birds of the Kafue Flats Wetlands, Zambia: Results of the
2015 Wet Season Aerial Survey
Griffin K. Shanungu
Chaka Kaumba
Dr. Richard Beilfuss
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SEPTEMBER 2015
AUTHOR DETAILS
Griffin Kaize Shanungu
Senior Wildlife Ecologist, Zambia Wildlife Authority (ZAWA) &
Program Coordinator, Zambia Crane and Wetland Conservation Programme, International Crane
Foundation
Chaka Harold Kaumba
Senior GIS officer, Zambia Wildlife Authority (ZAWA)
Dr. Richard D. Beilfuss
President and CEO, International Crane Foundation
Cover photo curtesy of Griffin K. Shanungu, 2010.
Citation: Shanungu G.K., Kaumba C.H. and Beilfuss R. 2015. Current Population Status and
Distribution of Large Herbivores and Floodplain Birds of the Kafue Flats Wetlands, Zambia:
Results of the 2015 Wet Season Aerial Survey. Zambia Wildlife Authority, Chilanga, Zambia.
NOTE: Views and opinions expressed in this report are of the authors and do not necessarily
represent the views of WWF, ZAWA and ICF.
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ACKNOWLEDGEMENT
Zambia Wildlife Authority (ZAWA) would like to thank the World Wide Fund for Nature
(WWF-Zambia) for financial support for this aerial survey. The International Crane Foundation
(ICF) for providing technical and financial support as well as software for carrying out this
survey. Furthermore, we thank the Flying Mission Zambia (FMZ) for the excellent flying
services.
Diilwe Syamuntu, Wilfred Moonga and Chuma Simukonda are acknowledged for having
significantly contributed to the success of this survey both in its design and execution.
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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
In April 2015
we conducted 29 hours of intensive aerial surveys over the Kafue Flats. The
survey was a partnership between the Zambia Wildlife Authority (ZAWA), WWF-Zambia, and
the International Crane Foundation. We flew 81 transects across the Kafue Flats at 150 kph,
about 100 meters above the ground. The survey team counted and mapped all conspicuous
wildlife on the flats, including large mammals and large waterbirds, and recorded all evidence of
the human involvement in the park (including settlements, cultivation, fishing camps, and cattle
posts, incidents of burning, logging, poaching, and charcoal production, and counts of all
livestock, especially cattle - which number in the hundreds of thousands. These population
estimates and distribution generated from the survey, along with detailed mapping of human
impacts on this protected area, will be the basis for management of the Kafue Flats Wetlands for
the coming years.
Three important discoveries resulted from the survey. First, the Kafue Flats has very high global
significance for waterbirds. We recorded the highest count of endangered Wattled Cranes in
more than 30 years, with an estimated population of 2,962. We directly observed 920 Wattled
Cranes on the floodplain, including one huge flock of more than 400 birds. This places the flats
as the most important wetland for Wattled Cranes in the world, home to more than 25% of the
estimated 8000 total population. The survey will be followed with ground visits to locations
where we observed Wattled Crane breeding grounds and large flocks, to determine population
structure, monitor nesting success, assess field conditions (hydrology, vegetation, grazing), and
evaluate human threats over time. Endangered Grey Crowned Cranes also occur on the flats, but
are less common. We also counted thousands of Spur-winged geese and African openbills, and
recorded more than 40 species of wetland birds overall.
Second, the population of Kafue Lechwe shows evidence of continued decline. Our estimated
population of 28,711 is the lowest ever recorded for the Kafue Flats, down from historical high
population counts that exceeded 100,000 in the 1970s. The Kafue Flats is the only place in the
world where the endemic Kafue Lechwe occurs, a wetland-dependent antelope that grazes down
vast areas of floodplain grasses as annual floodwaters recede. Lechwe are increasingly
concentrated in Lochinvar and Blue Lagoon National Parks, having abandoned much of their
historical range across the GMA. Other important large mammal species on the Kafue Flats
include Plains Zebra (estimated population 580), Africa Buffalo (estimated population 897),
Common Reedbuck (estimated population 234) and smaller numbers of Hippopotamus, Blue
Wildebeest, Greater Kudu, and deep marsh-dwelling Sitatunga.
Third, there is very substantial human encroachment into the Kafue Flats. Our survey showed
that significant proportion of land on the edges of Blue Lagoon and Lochinvar NP boundaries
and the surrounding Kafue Flats Game Management Area (GMA) have been heavily settled.
Many villages/settlements are spread across the entire landscape. Cattle posts and fishing
villages however are widespread on the floodplain and along watercourses. From the survey, we
observed that the fishing villages are now expanding in size and number and are encroaching
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onto the core habitat for Kafue Lechwe, Wattled Cranes and the many species of waterbirds that
depend on the Kafue Flats. While the Kafue Flats is a very important resource for human
livelihoods, a balance is needed to ensure that animals move freely and have access to feeding
and breeding grounds.
Thus, we recommend extending the boundary of Lochinvar NP to join with Blue Lagoon NP and
form a single, unified national park to better protect critical habitat for fauna and flora that
occurs between these two parks. This will subsequently restrict access and movements of people
and prevent settling and building of permanent fishing villages, ensuring that the remaining
pristine habitat for the Kafue Lechwe, Wattled Cranes, and important wetland flora and fauna is
safeguarded for the future.
To reverse the declining trends in animal population, we recommend improving resource
protection of the Kafue Flats by equipping ZAWA personnel at Lochinvar and Blue Lagoon NPs
with adequate resources to enable effective protection of the Kafue flats wetlands, including
invasive species and fire management. The spread of invasive species such as Mimosa pigra as
well as encroachment of aggressive native shrubs such as Dichrostachys cinerea, for example, is
affecting critical areas for Kafue Lechwe and cranes and has had significant negative impacts on
their populations. Habitat restoration by way of controlling the spread of invasive and aggressive
species and damaging fires is a matter of urgency. The implementation of environmental flows
to improve water conditions on the Kafue Flats is also essential
Lastly, we recommend repeating these aerial surveys bi-annually and to further conduct more
research and monitoring of Kafue Lechwe, Wattled Cranes and other species of conservation
concern so as to ensure good management based on accurate counts and trends, and to conduct
additional reconnaissance surveys at other times of the year, as funding permits, to assess
seasonal movements related to water conditions, human activities, and other factors.
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Table of Contents
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ........................................................................................................................ 4
1.0
INTRODUCTION........................................................................................................................... 9
2.0
METHODOLOGY ....................................................................................................................... 13
2.1
Survey Area ............................................................................................................................... 13
2.2
Survey Design ............................................................................................................................ 13
2.3
Fight Procedure and observations ........................................................................................... 15
2.4
Data Analysis ............................................................................................................................. 16
3.0
RESULTS ...................................................................................................................................... 17
3.1
General ....................................................................................................................................... 17
3.2
Herbivore population estimates and distribution .................................................................. 17
3.3
Large floodplain bird population estimates and distribution ............................................... 18
3.4
Livestock and Human Activities .............................................................................................. 20
3.5
Population trends of Kafue Lechwe, other large mammals, and Wattled Cranes .............. 28
4.0
DISCUSSION AND RECOMMENDATIONS ........................................................................... 33
4.1
Factors contributing to the decline of the Kafue Lechwe population .................................. 33
4.2
Population trends and threats to Wattled Cranes on the Kafue Flats ................................. 37
REFERENCES .......................................................................................................................................... 43
APPENDICES ........................................................................................................................................... 45
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LIST OF APPENDICES
Appendix 1. Sampling statistics for each stratum for the April 2005 Aerial survey of the Kafue Flats ..... 45
Appendix 2. Calibration Data for FSO and RSO ........................................................................................ 45
Appendix 3. Stratum 1 basic information and statistical analysis ............................................................. 46
Appendix 4. Stratum 2 Basic information and statistical analysis .............................................................. 47
Appendix 5. Stratum 3 Basic information and statistical analysis .............................................................. 48
Appendix 6. Stratum 4 Basic information and statistical analysis ............................................................. 50
Appendix 7. Stratum 5 Basic information and statistical analysis .............................................................. 51
Appendix 8. Stratum 6 Basic information and statistical analysis .............................................................. 52
Appendix 9. Transect Data ......................................................................................................................... 54
LIST OF TABLES
Table 1. Summary of numbers sighted and estimated population for all mammals, birds and domestic
livestock for recorded during the April 2015 aerial survey. ....................................................................... 19
Table 2. Kafue Lechwe population estimates from 1970 to 2015. ............................................................ 28
Table 3. Population estimates and trends of large mammal on the Kafue Flats from 1990 to 2015. ........ 30
Table 4. Wattled Crane population estimates on the Kafue Flats: 1972 to 2015. ....................................... 31
Table 5. Hunting quota utilization on the Kafue Flats GMA – 2006 to 2012. ........................................... 37
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LIST OF FIGURES
Figure 1. Map of the Kafue Flats showing the location of Lochinvar and Blue Lagoon National Parks and
the Kafue Flats Game Management Area. .................................................................................................. 10
Figure 2. Map of the survey area showing the location of the six strata and the completed survey
tracks. .......................................................................................................................................................... 14
Figure 3. Spatial distribution of endemic Kafue Lechwe in the Kafue flats based on the April 2015 Aerial
survey. ......................................................................................................................................................... 21
Figure 4. Spatial distribution of Blue Wildebeest, Plains Zebra, African Buffalo, Greater Kudu, Sitatunga,
and Common Reedbuck on the Kafue Flats based on the April 2015 Aerial survey. ................................. 22
Figure 5. Spatial distribution of Wattled Crane on the Kafue Flats based on the April 2015 aerial
survey .......................................................................................................................................................... 23
Figure 6. Spatial distribution of Spur-winged Goose on the Kafue Flats based on April 2015 aerial
survey.. ........................................................................................................................................................ 24
Figure 7. Spatial distribution and relative abundance of African Openbill, Yellowbilled Stork, African
White Pelican, Woollyneck Stork, Southern Ground Hornbill, and Secretarybird..................................... 25
Figure 8. Spatial distribution and abundance of cattle on the Kafue Flats based on the April 2015 aerial
survey. ......................................................................................................................................................... 26
Figure 9. Spatial distribution of settlements/villages, fishing camps, cattle posts, Kafue Lechwe and areas
of cultivation on the Kafue Flats based on the April 2015 aerial survey. ................................................... 27
Figure 10. Population trend of Kafue Lechwe from 1970 to 2015.. ........................................................... 29
Figure 11: Population trends of Wattled Crane on the Kafue Flats from 1970 to 2015 from dry season (A)
and Wet Season (B) surveys. ...................................................................................................................... 32
Figure 12. Distribution of Kafue Lechwe in relation to human settlements, fishing villages and cattle posts
on the Kafue Flats during the April 2015 survey. ....................................................................................... 35
Figure 13. Kafue Lechwe and cattle distribution on the Kafue Flats based on the April 2015 survey. ...... 36
Figure 14. Proposed boundary extensions of Blue Lagoon and Lochinvar NPs to encompass critical
habitat for lechwe and waterbirds and create a new National Park named “Kafue Flats National Park”. .. 41
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1.0
INTRODUCTION
The Kafue Flats of Zambia are a rich mosaic of lush floodplain grasslands and lagoons sustained
by the seasonal floodwaters of the Kafue River. The Kafue Flats are protected by two National
Parks (NPs) – Lochinvar and Blue Lagoon -- and the Kafue Flats Game Management Area
(GMA), covering much of the Kafue Flats (Figure 1).
The Kafue Flats are important as they provide habitat to a wide range of mammal species
including the endemic antelope species the Kafue Lechwe (Kobus leche kafuensis), Plains Zebra
(Equus quagga crawshayi), Blue Wildebeest (Connochaetus taurinus) and Oribi (Ourebia
ourebia) that utilize the floodplain grasslands of the area (Shanungu and Blaser, 2011,
Simukonda et al, 2002). African Buffalo (Syncerus caffer), Bushbuck (Tragelaphus scriptus),
Impala (Aepyceros melampus) and Greater Kudu (Tragelaphus strepsiceros) utilize the termitaria
and woodland zones of the Kafue Flats (Chansa and Kampamba 2009, Shanungu and Blaser,
2011). By far, the most important mammal species of the Kafue Flats is the endemic Kafue
Lechwe - a semi-aquatic antelope living on the margin of shallow waters and feeding almost
entirely on grasses in the water and on dry land. Much of the Kafue Lechwe population occurs in
Lochinvar and Blue Lagoon NPs or in the adjoining Kafue Flats GMA close to the park
boundaries (Shanungu and Blaser, 2011). Additionally, the Kafue Flats are recognized as an
Important Bird Area and provide habitat to one of the largest concentration of Vulnerable
Wattled Cranes (Grus caranculatus) in Africa, as well as Endangered Grey Crowned Cranes
(Balearica regulorum) and other large floodplain bird species of conservation concern (Leonard
2005, Beilfuss et al, 2007). For this reason, the site is designated as a RAMSAR Site, a wetland
of International Importance under the Ramsar Convention.
The Kafue Flats are also vital for the national economy of Zambia and provide sustenance for
thousands of rural communities. The extensive floodplains of the Kafue Flats provide seasonal
grazing grounds for thousands of cattle for the local pastoralist (Chabwela and Haller, 2010). A
significant proportion of the beef supply for the country emanates from the Kafue flats. The
shallow waters and lagoons of the Kafue Flats provide important spawning grounds for riverine
fishes, and support an important fishery all year round for the local community and national
markets (Chabwela and Haller, 2010).
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Fish from the Kafue flats are transported as far as Lusaka and on the Copperbelt of Zambia
(Chabwela and Mumba 1998). The rich soils of the Kafue Flats support the largest sugar
plantations in Zambia. The Kafue Flats play a key role in the energy sector. Two hydropower
dams have been constructed upstream and downstream of the Kafue Flats for the production of
electricity for the country’s domestic use and export, with additional dams planned for the
downstream Kafue Gorge.
Figure 1. Map of the Kafue Flats showing the location of Lochinvar and Blue Lagoon National Parks and
the Kafue Flats Game Management Area.
The Kafue Flats offers exclusive ecotourism and trophy hunting opportunities. Other important
ecosystem services provided by the Kafue flats include:
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1.
Clean and abundant freshwater (surface water) for domestic use to local communities as
well as urban areas including Kafue town and Lusaka City.
2.
Flood storage and protection
3.
Extensive woodland and grassland areas of the Kafue flats provide carbon sequestration
to combat climate change (Blaser et al, 2014).
4.
Papyrus, reeds, thatch grasses and other resources that can be sustainably harvested from
the floodplains.
Sustainable management of the Kafue flats depends on accurate information about the ecological
and socio-economic resources of this vast and productive ecosystem. This report describes the
population status and distribution of large mammals, domestic cattle, and waterbird species of
conservation concern based on results of the aerial survey conducted in April 2015.
The objectives of this report are to:
1.
Assess the current status and distribution of large herbivores that include the endemic
Kafue Lechwe, African Buffalo, Plains Zebra, Blue Wildebeest, Greater Kudu, Impala,
Bushbuck, Reedbuck, Sitatunga and Oribi.
2.
Assess the current population status and distribution of flagship waterbirds including
Wattled Cranes, Grey Crowned Cranes, Saddlebilled Storks, Southern Ground Hornbill,
Great White Pelicans, and others.
3.
Assess the distribution of human activities including human settlements, villages, cattle
posts and domestic cattle
4.
Evaluate trends of large mammals especially the Kafue Lechwe based on aerial surveys
conducted over the last forty five years.
5.
Describe the implications of these findings for wildlife conservation and management in
the Kafue Flats.
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Aerial surveys
Aerial surveys provide an important long-term reference for evaluating changes in wildlife status
and distribution in open floodplains (Beilfuss et al, 2010). Aerial surveys for the Kafue Flats
have been conducted since 1970 -- prior to the construction of the Kafue Gorge and Itezhi tezhi
Dams. Past surveys have covered the entire Kafue floodplain as one ecosystem to provide
estimates of large herbivores, with a particular focus on the endemic Kafue Lechwe. These aerial
surveys have revealed a long-term declining trend of large mammals, especially the Kafue
Lechwe. Prior to the present survey, the most recent aerial survey for the Kafue Flats was
conducted in 2005 at the height of the dry season in October. The survey results suggested a
Kafue Lechwe population of approximately 38,000, indicating a significant decline in the
population of the species from pervious counts (Chansa and Kampamba, 2009). Previous surveys
also indicated a more than 60% decline in Vulnerable Wattled Cranes over the past 30-40 years
on the Kafue Flats (Beilfuss et al. 2002). This present survey aimed to further elucidate longterm trends in the population status and distribution of Kafue Lechwe, Wattled Cranes, and other
large mammal and bird species of conservation concern on the Kafue Flats, based on
observations during the late rainy season in April 2015.
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2.0
METHODOLOGY
2.1
Survey Area
The total surveyed area was 5615 sq.km, between 26o44‘28‘‘E and 27o48‘52‘‘E, and
16o05‘21‘‘S and, 15o18‘35‘‘S, and encompassing the Blue Lagoon and Lochinvar NPs as well as
the Kafue Flats GMA. The altitude in the survey area ranges from 975 to 1000 m.a.s.l. The
Kafue Flats experiences three distinct seasons: (1) hot and wet from November to April, with an
annual rainfall of 710mm (Blaser 2013); (2) cold and dry from May to August; (3) hot and dry
from September to October.
The vast floodplains are annually inundated by overbank flooding from the Kafue River, which
drains a 154,000 km2 catchment area, with additional contributions from ephemeral tributaries of
the flats and local rainfall. The vegetation is heavily influenced by the extent and duration of
floodplain inundation, and comprises of deep-water swamp, floodplain grassland, termitaria, and
woodland vegetation communities (Douthwaite and Van LaVieren, 1978, Blaser 2013).
2.2
Survey Design
The survey procedure was based on a well-established standardized wildlife aerial survey
approach as described by Norton-Griffiths 1978. This approach follows the techniques used in
previous surveys (Chansa and Kampamba, 2005, Beilfuss et al 2002, and references therein), to
ensure that the results of the present survey are comparable with past results. The survey area
was divided into six (6) different strata (Figure 2) designed to reflect differences in the density of
Kafue Lechwe, Wattled Cranes, and other species. The strata were delineated based on an aerial
reconnaissance survey conducted prior to full survey. Strata one, four and six covered the Kafue
Flats GMA, where lechwe and most other waterbirds species occur in low densities and
extensive human settlements and activities occur. Stratum three encompassed the core wildlife
zone of the Kafue flats that included floodplain grassland areas of the Lochinvar and Blue
Lagoon NPs and the middle section of the Kafue Flats GMA. Strata two and five were located in
the woodland zones of Blue Lagoon and Lochinvar NPs respectively. These two strata were
designed to sample the woodland mammal species of the two national parks.
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The area of each stratum was calculated using the software ArcGIS 10.3 for Desktop (ESRI,
2014). Parallel transect lines, oriented North-South, were placed in each of the strata and were
designed to cut the main physical feature – the Kafue River – at right angles. The spacing for the
transect lines in strata two, three and five was placed at 2km apart to give a relatively high
sampling intensity of 20%, 15% and 21% respectively with a planned combined strip width of
400m. Transect lines in stratum one, four and six were placed 4km apart to give a lower
sampling intensity of 11%, 14% and 10% respectively with a planned combined strip width of
400m.
The stratum and transect lines designed in ArcGIS 10.3 were transferred into a PC-based data
capture software – ArcPAD 10.2 (ESRI, 2011) as well as into a hand held Global Positioning
System (GPS) prior to flying each stratum. The ArcPAD was used for navigation and data
capture and the handheld GPS was primarily used for navigation.
Figure 2. Map of the survey area showing the location of the six strata and the completed
survey tracks. Notice that the base for all operations was from Chilongolo Airstrip in Makeni,
Lusaka.
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2.3
Fight Procedure and observations
A high-winged Cessna 206 aircraft, fitted with a radar altimeter and a Garmin GPS receiver, was
used for the aerial survey. The survey team included the pilot (Timothy Kerh, Flying Mission
Zambia), front seat observer and data recorder (Richard Beilfuss, International Crane
Foundation), and two back seat observers: Diilwe Syamuntu (Left seat) and Wilfred Moonga
(Right seat). A supplemental observer and data recorder (Chaka Kaumba) sat at the back of the
aircraft. All crew members communicated with each other through the aircraft’s intercom. All
crew members had significant experience observing and counting during aerial surveys except
for Diilwe Syamuntu, who nonetheless had previous extensive experience conducting ground
surveys of mammal and waterbirds in Lochinvar NP.
Calibration methodology – based on Norton-Griffiths (1978) – was done to allow for a targeted
200m strip width on each side of the aircraft when flown at 300 feet above ground level (agl).
Two fixed bars (fishing rods) were attached with custom brackets to each wing strut and the
distance between the rods was adjusted for each observer to allow for the 200m strip width at the
flight height of 300 feet agl. The aircraft was flown at approximately 150km/hour. The
Chilongolo Airstrip in Makeni, Lusaka was used as base for all operations.
During the survey, all animals seen were called out by the observers to the recorder who entered
the data directly into ArcPad on a laptop. This system ensured real-time data capture of all
observations as well as the capture of the track log data at 2-second intervals. The actual height
of the aircraft was recorded onto data sheets by the supplemental observer every 30 seconds
while flying along transects. The mean height above ground level for each transect was then
calculated. A total of seven survey sessions were flown over four days during the period 23rd
April – 26th April 2015, which represents the end of the wet season and the annual peak level of
flooding across the Kafue Flats. The total survey flight time was 29.1 hours, including four hours
reconnaissance survey. Figure 2 shows the complete survey transects. The survey team counted
all large mammal species and nine large bird species of conservation concern (i.e., Wattled
Cranes, Grey Crowned Cranes, Great White Pelicans, Saddlebilled Storks, African Openbills,
Yellowbilled Storks, Woolynecked Storks, Southern Ground Hornbills, and Secretarybirds) that
were observed within the transect strips. Although the survey was primarily designed to estimate
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numbers of large mammals and large birds, the observers also counted and mapped the location
of all domestic livestock (primarily cattle, but also goats and pigs), settlements, fisher camps, and
cattle posts observed, as well as evidence of active logging, hunting, and burning.
2.4
Data Analysis
Population estimates and confidence intervals for each stratum were calculated in an Excel
spreadsheet based on Jolly’s (II) 1969 method for unequal-sized sampling units (Norton-Griffiths
1978). Individual transect length and area were calculated using ArcGIS software. The value of
Student’s t used to calculate the confidence interval of a population estimate was t n‐1 for P=0.05,
where n = number of transects in the stratum. Population estimates for the entire study area were
calculated as the sum of the estimates for the individual strata within the study area. The
confidence interval for population estimate of each of the species was calculated as: t x square
root of (Sum of Variances for individual strata) where: t was taken as 2.0 following NortonGriffiths (1978)
Data from the survey that were captured in ArcPAD 10.2 were transferred into ArcGIS 10.3 and
saved as shape files projected both as points and lines. This data included: name of animal
species or human activity; number of each animal species or activity per observation; and GPS
position for each observation. Spatial distribution of each wild animal species, as well as
livestock, fishing camps, settlements, and cultivated areas were mapped using ArcGIS 10.3
across the entire survey area.
To evaluate population trends for Kafue Lechwe, other large herbivores, and Wattled Cranes, a
literature search was done to collect data on population estimates from the 1970s to date. The
data was analyzed by linear and quadratic regression models. First, a linear regression was
performed with the population estimates taken as the dependent variables and the time as the
independent variable. The regression analysis was then repeated by adding the quadratic fit.
Models were developed for the relationship between population and time and summarized in the
equation of a straight line and quadratic equation as appropriate. The quadratic fit was favored
over the linear fit if the quadratic fit had a lower P value than that of the linear fit. Statistics were
performed using the statistical program PAST 2.17 (2012). Graphs where produced using
Microsoft EXCEL (Microsoft, 2013).
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3.0
RESULTS
3.1
General
The overall population estimate for each large herbivore and large floodplain bird observed in
the survey area is given in Table 1, including actual numbers counted within the survey transects,
the statistically estimated population, and the 95% confidence limits for each of the large
mammal and bird species. A detailed breakdown of the survey statistics, calibration data, and
estimates of each stratum is given in Appendix 1 to 8.
Figures 3 to 7 show the spatial distribution of Kafue Lechwe, all other large herbivores observed,
Wattled Cranes, Spur-winged Geese, and all other large floodplain birds observed, respectively.
The location of the dots on each map indicates the approximate location where a species was
observed, and the size of each dot indicates the relative size of the group or flock observed at that
location. Figure 8 shows the spatial distribution of cattle across the Kafue Flats, and Figure 9
shows the distribution of human settlements, fishing villages, cattle posts, and cultivated areas.
3.2
Herbivore population estimates and distribution
The Kafue Lechwe population in the survey area of the Kafue Flats is estimated at 28,711. The
majority of the lechwe population (70%) was located on the northern banks of the Kafue flats in
and around Blue Lagoon NP, with the remaining population (30%) occurring in the southern
banks around Lochinvar NP (Figure 3). Because Kafue Lechwe occur primarily on the open
floodplain they are easily detected, but they are aggregated in large, concentrated herds that are
very challenging to enumerate accurately from a high-speed aircraft.
The Africa Buffalo population in the survey area of the Kafue Flats is estimated at 897. The
largest herd was sighted in the southern edges of Lochinvar NP near the Gwisho Hotsprings
(Figure 4). A smaller herd occurred on the edge of the grassland and woodland zone in the Blue
Lagoon NP (Figure 4). African Buffalo that occur in the woodland zone can be difficult to detect
accurately, and were likely undercounted.
The population of Plains Zebra in the survey area of the Kafue Flats was estimated at 580. One
herd was sighted in the Lochinvar NP during the survey. However, larger herds were sighted in
the termitaria and floodplain zones of the Blue Lagoon and Lochinvar NPs outside the transects,
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and frequently observed from the ground as well, and were not included in the analysis
suggesting that the population of the Plains Zebra is much larger than the current estimates.
Common Reedbuck and Sitatunga populations in the survey area are estimated at 235 and 76,
respectively. Sitatungas were mostly confined to reeds and swamps along the Kafue River and
the Lubwato Lagoon (Figure 4). Reedbucks were more evenly distributed across Blue Lagoon
NP. Both species can be difficult to detect, especially Sitatunga which occur (and hide) in deep
marshes and were almost certainly undercounted.
Other ungulates recorded during the survey for which sample sizes were too low to calculate
population estimates included Common Waterbuck (1), Greater Kudu (1), Blue Wildebeest (15),
Oribi (2), and Hippopotamus (46). The Common Waterbuck observation is noteworthy as the
species was not previously known to occur on the Kafue Flats.
3.3
Large floodplain bird population estimates and distribution
The Vulnerable Wattled Crane population in the survey area of the Kafue Flats is estimated at
2,962. During the survey, a total of 920 Wattled Cranes were observed, including 433 within the
sample strips (used for the population estimate) and an additional 487 outside of the sample
strips (used to more carefully map the species distribution). One large flock of more than 400
birds was observed, located partially within the survey strata. Wattled Cranes showed an even
distribution in stratum 3 of the survey area – the vast floodplains west and east of Lochinvar NP
and the large expanse of floodplains in the Game Management Area and the southern half of
Blue Lagoon NP (Figure 5). The majority of the cranes observed occurred on the northern banks
of the Kafue Flats accounting about 80% of the entire Wattled Crane population, whereas the
southern banks of the Kafue flats around Lochinvar NP had 20% of the entire Wattled Crane
population. Adult Wattled Cranes are relatively easy to detect when upright and in flight, but are
easily missed when occurring on nests and large flocks are difficult to count accurately from
aircraft. Chicks are very difficult to detect and almost certainly undercounted.
The Endangered Grey Crowned Crane population in the survey area of the Kafue Flats is
estimated at 116. A total of 20 birds were observed during the survey, all in Lochinvar NP. The
Spur-winged Geese population in the survey area of the Kafue Flats is estimated at 11,561.
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Population estimates were also generated for African Openbill (5,993), Great White Pelican
(949), and Yellowbilled Stork (297). Other large birds of note observed during the survey
included Ground Hornbill (3 counted), Woolynecked Stork (8), and Secretarybird (2). Spurwinged Geese and African Openbill showed similar distribution patterns to Wattled Cranes
(Figures 6 and 7, respectively). These were mainly distributed in stratum 3 of the survey area,
with most occurring in the GMA both on the southern and northern banks of the Kafue River and
the vast floodplain areas. White Pelicans were mainly distributed in the floodplains of the northeastern half of Lochinvar NP and on the GMA (Figure 7). The spatial distribution of other large
birds observed in the survey area is shown in Figure 7.
Table 1. Summary of numbers sighted and estimated population for all mammals, birds and domestic
livestock for recorded during the April 2015 aerial survey.
Number
sighted
Species
Large Mammals
95% confidence limits
Population Estimate
Kafue Lechwe (Kobus leche kafuensis)
4205
28711
9222
African Buffalo (Syncerus caffer)
187
897
-
Common Reedbuck (Redunca arundinum)
36
235
457
Sitatunga (Tragelaphus spekei)
9
76
-
Oribi (Ourebia ourebi)
2
-
Greater Kudu (Tragelaphus strepticeros)
1
-
Hippopotamus (Hippopotamus amphibious)
46
-
-
Plains Zebra (Equus quagga crawshayi)
85
580
-
Common Waterbuck (Kobus ellipsiprymnus)
1
-
-
Wattled Crane (Grus caranculatus)
431
2962
2275
Grey Crowned Cranes (Balearica regulorum)
20
116
187
Spur winged Goose (Plectropterus gambensis)
219
11575
3018
African Openbill (Anastomus lamelligerus)
874
5993
1945
Yellowbilled Stork (Mycteria ibis)
Southern
Ground
Hornbill
leadbeateri)
43
297
723
Large Birds
(Bucorvus
Great White Pelican (Pelecanus onocrotalus)
3
139
949
1402
Woolynecked Stork (Ciconia episcopus)
8
-
Secretarybird (Sagittarius serpentarius)
2
-
Livestock
Cattle
19 | P a g e
10394
92942
3653
3.4
Livestock and Human Activities
The cattle population in the survey area of the Kafue Flats is estimated at 92,942 (Table 1).
Cattle are widely distributed across the GMA with few observed in the Lochinvar and Blue
Lagoon NPs (Figure 8). Given that the survey occurred during the wet season when much of the
Kafue Flats is flooded, fewer herds were observed in the floodplain grasslands zone of the survey
area and most occurred on higher ground in the termitaria and woodland zones of the survey
area.
Human activities recorded during the survey included cattle posts (cattle enclosures), fishing
camps (temporary settlements), cultivated areas, and permanent settlements (villages). Many
houses were observed with metal roofs suggesting that these are permanently settled. One school
was observed. The spatial distribution of these human activities is shown in Figure 9. Much of
the survey area – with the notable exception of the two national parks – reflects extensive human
activity, with fishing and pastoralism being the main land use type observed.
20 | P a g e
Figure 3. Spatial distribution of endemic Kafue Lechwe in the Kafue flats based on the April 2015 Aerial survey. Relative abundance of
the lechwe population is denoted by the size of the dot.
21 | P a g e
Figure 4. Spatial distribution of Blue Wildebeest, Plains Zebra, African Buffalo, Greater Kudu, Sitatunga, and Common Reedbuck on the
Kafue Flats based on the April 2015 Aerial survey. Different animal species are denoted by different color of the dots, and the relative
abundance of each mammal by the size of the dots.
22 | P a g e
Figure 5. Spatial distribution of Wattled Crane on the Kafue Flats based on the April 2015 aerial survey. Abundance of the Wattled Cranes
are denoted by the size of the dots, reflecting pairs (1-2), family groups (3), and small (4-8), medium (9-20), and large flocks (>20).
23 | P a g e
Figure 6. Spatial distribution of Spur-winged Goose on the Kafue Flats based on April 2015 aerial survey. Spur-winged Goose abundance
is indicated by the size of the dots.
24 | P a g e
Figure 7. Spatial distribution and relative abundance of African Openbill, Yellowbilled Stork, African White Pelican, Woollyneck Stork,
Southern Ground Hornbill, and Secretarybird. Spatial distribution is based on the April, 2015 aerial survey and the relative abundance of
each species.
25 | P a g e
Figure 8. Spatial distribution and abundance of cattle on the Kafue Flats based on the April 2015 aerial survey.
26 | P a g e
Figure 9. Spatial distribution of settlements/villages, fishing camps, cattle posts, Kafue Lechwe and areas of cultivation on the Kafue Flats
based on the April 2015 aerial survey.
27 | P a g e
3.5
Population trends of Kafue Lechwe, other large mammals, and Wattled
Cranes
Kafue Lechwe
The April 2015 survey resulted in the lowest population estimate ever recorded for the Kafue
Lechwe (28,711) – reflecting a significant decline relative to previous surveys. Table 2 shows a
summary of the lechwe population estimates from 1970 to the present survey. From 1970-1975
(reflecting the period immediately prior to construction of Itezhi-tezhi Dam upstream of the
Kafue Flats), repeat annual surveys suggested that the population of Kafue Lechwe was
fluctuating from 80,774 to 109,612 (Bell et al, 1973, Osborne et al, 1975). Subsequent surveys
from the early 1980s to mid-2000s suggested much reduced numbers, with the estimated
population fluctuating from as low as 37,120 to 68,940. In the late 2000s, consensus was
reached that the population had stabilized at approximately 40,000 across the Kafue Flats
(Chansa and Kampamba 2009), with Blue Lagoon and the vast floodplains on the North bank
holding more than 80% of the entire Kafue Lechwe population. However, the present survey
results indicate that the population may have further declined below this level. Figure 10 shows
the declining trend of the population over time, with an estimated population loss of 1,517 per
annum.
Table 2. Kafue Lechwe population estimates from 1970 to 2015.
Year Population estimate
1970
1971
1972
1973
1975
1981
1982
1983
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1993
1994
1995
1998
28 | P a g e
94,075
93,215
93,158
109,612
80,774
45,867
41,345
41,155
50,715
65,018
47,145
44,538
68,872
64,940
50,000
40,000
37,120
Reference
Bell et al. 1973
Bell, et al. 1973
Bell et al. 1973
Osborne et al. 1973
Osborne et al. 1975
Howard et al. 1983
Howard, et al. 1983
Howard et al. 1983
Howard, et al. 1987
Howard, et al. 1988
Jeffrey, et al. 1988
Jeffrey, et al. 1990
Jeffrey, et al. 1991
Kapungwe, 1993
Jeffrey, 1994
Tembo, 1995
Kampamba, et al. 1998
Period before
and after Dam
Construction.
Pre- construction
Pre- construction
Pre- construction
Pre- construction
Pre- construction
Post construction
Post construction
Post construction
Post construction
Post construction
Post construction
Post construction
Post construction
Post construction
Post construction
Post construction
Post construction
Year
Population
Estimate
1999
2002
2005
2015
Reference
45,000
42,000
38,448
28,711
Kampamba et al., 1999
Kamweneshe, Beilfuss and Simukonda, 2002
Chansa & Kampamba, 2009
Present survey
Period before and
after
Dam
Construction.
Post construction
Post construction
Post construction
Post construction
120,000
y = 38.35x2 - 154108x + 2E+08
R² = 0.7099
Population estimates
100,000
80,000
60,000
40,000
20,000
0
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
YEAR
Figure 10. Population trend of Kafue Lechwe from 1970 to 2015. The solid line shows a significant
declining trend in population from 1970 to 2015 (P<0.05). Source (Kamweneshe et al, 2015; Chansa
and Kampamba 2009; this survey).
29 | P a g e
Other large mammals
The African Buffalo, Hippopotamus, and Common Reedbuck populations on the Kafue Flats
show an increasing trend (Table 4). African Buffalo numbers are especially encouraging, with
the highest estimate ever recorded. Most of the Buffalo population occurs on the southern banks
of the Kafue River in Lochinvar NP. Anecdotal reports suggest that the Buffalo population has
mostly disappeared from Blue Lagoon NP and the northern bank floodplains, suggesting that
their range may be restricted.
Blue Wildebeest’s population has reduced from a reported population of over 1000 in the 1970s
(Ellenbroek, 1989) to less than 100 today. The Plains Zebra shows a significant decreasing trend
over time, although anecdotal evidence from ground surveys suggests that the population may
have stabilized at 800 – 1500 individuals in the Kafue Flats.
The population trends of Greater Kudu, Sitatunga, and other less conspicuous mammals are
difficult to determine from aerial survey reports due to insufficient data. Field Observations
indicate frequent sightings of Greater Kudu in the Lochinvar NP and Blue Lagoon NP. No
impalas where observed during the survey but reports from the resident ecologist at Lochinvar
NP indicate a population of more than 100 individuals, suggesting an increase in the population
from the early 1990s.
Table 3. Population estimates and trends of large mammal on the Kafue Flats from 1990 to
2015.
Species
1990
1999
2002
Buffalo
116
188
275
Hippopotamus
2015
Population Trend
897
Increasing
>80
314
Increasing
Greater Kudu
30-100
7
Uncertain
Oribi
>200
35
14
Decreasing
Reedbuck
>10
20
234
Increasing
76
Uncertain
Sitatunga
2005
Blue Wildebeest
148
600
71
Decreasing
Plains Zebra
2168
1470
580
Decreasing
30 | P a g e
Wattled Cranes
Table 4 below shows a summary of the wet and dry season population estimates of Wattled
Crane from the early 1970s to date. For the trend analysis, we separated the wet and dry season
results and carried out a regression analysis separately to avoid seasonal bias. Both the wet and
dry season estimates showed no statistically significant linear trends from the 1970s to date.
However, the data indicates that the population of the Wattled Cranes fluctuated between 1600 –
3000 from the early 1970s to the late 1980s. Drastic declines in the populations occurred
between the late 1980s to the early 2000s with a population decline from 3273 in 1989 to 967 in
2002 as shown in table 4 and figure 11A and B below. The population of the Wattled Crane from
the early 2000s until the present survey has shown an increase in the populations although few
surveys were conducted on the Kafue flats from the early 2000s to 2015 and thus very difficult to
account for the population increase in that period.
Table 4. Wattled Crane population estimates on the Kafue Flats: 1972 to 2015.
Year
Month
1972
June
1,601
Douthwaite,1974c
1972
November
2,932
Douthwaite,1974c
1973
May
3,085
Douthwaite, 1974c
1973
August
2,336
Douthwaite, 1974c
1982
May
3,282
Howard and Aspinwall, 1984
1987
November
2,508
Howard, 1989
1988
May/June
2,724
Malambo, 1990 in Dodman, 1996
1989
August
3,273
Malambo, 1990 in Dodman, 1996
1993
January
1,373
Dodman, 1996
1993
May
809
1993
July
1,268
2001
November
2005
October
2,454
Chansa 2005.
2015
April
2,962
This survey
31 | P a g e
Estimate
967
Source
Jeffery et al., 1993
Dodman, 1996
Kamweneshe and Beilfuss, 2002a
Wattled Crane Population estimates
(A) Dry Season Survey
(B) Wet Season Survey
y = -30.664x + 63225
R² = 0.2138
3500
3000
3000
2500
2500
2000
2000
1500
1500
1000
1000
500
500
0
1970
y = 1.7341x2 - 6911.6x + 7E+06
R² = 0.1538
3500
1980
1990
2000
Year
2010
0
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
Year
Figure 11: Population trends of Wattled Crane on the Kafue Flats from 1970 to 2015 from dry season (A)
and Wet Season (B) surveys. Dotted line indicates statistically insignificant trend (p>0.05). Data source:
Kamweneshe et al, 2002; Chansa 2005 and this survey).
The population of the Wattled Crane is linked to the fluctuations of water level and availability
of food resources such tubers of Eleocharis spp. More studies are therefore required to ascertain
the interactions of the crane population to hydrology, vegetation and the abundance of large
grazing of herbivores on the Kafue Flats.
32 | P a g e
4.0
DISCUSSION AND RECOMMENDATIONS
The Kafue Lechwe population movement and distribution is mainly influenced by hydrology and
food availability (Blaser, 2013). The majority of the lechwe population (70%) occurs north of the
Kafue River, in the floodplains of Blue Lagoon NP and the adjacent GMA, with the remaining
30% located in or near Lochinvar NP, close to Chunga Lagoon. These findings mirror Chansa
and Kampamba (2009), whose 2005 dry season survey showed that 86% of the Kafue Lechwe
population was found north of the Kafue River. Similarly, 80% of the Wattled Crane population
occurs on the northern floodplain near the Blue Lagoon NP and adjacent GMA, with only 20%
in Lochinvar and its surrounding GMA.
These observations certainly highlight the importance of the northern floodplain in general, and
Blue Lagoon NP specifically, for the conservation of these two species of international
importance. However, one reason for the different in distribution could be the presence of
invasive Mimosa pigra shrubs (discussed further below). Mimosa shrubs are far more extensive
in Lochinvar NP than Blue Lagoon NP, occupying substantial areas of important flood-recession
habitat along the edge of Chunga lagoon that would otherwise support good numbers of Kafue
Lechwe and Wattled Cranes. Lochinvar NP, which houses the ZAWA headquarters for the two
national parks, receives much more management attention than Blue Lagoon NP and the
northern floodplains. These results suggest that on the one hand, more management action is
needed to control mimosa shrubs in Lochinvar NP, while on the other hand more management
attention in general is needed on the Blue Lagoon side to safeguard the more substantial
populations of the lechwe and cranes.
4.1
Factors contributing to the decline of the Kafue Lechwe population
There are a number of factors that are attributed to the decline in the lechwe population. Some of
the factors are summarized below:
Reduced suitable habitat – encroachment of native shrubs and invasive species.
The Kafue Flats have experienced significant encroachment of shrubs especially in the termitaria
and floodplain grasslands over last four decades (Blaser, 2013, Shanungu 2013, Berhanu, 2006,
Thomas, 2006). These changes are attributed to the changes in the flooding regime brought about
33 | P a g e
by the construction of hydroelectric dams both at Itezhi-tezhi and Kafue gorge in the 1970s
(Blaser, 2013, Mumba, 2004). The main encroachers are the native shrub Dichrostachys cinerea
and the invasive shrub Mimosa pigra. Blaser (2013) indicates that the encroachment of these
shrubs reduced suitable grazing areas for the Kafue Lechwe, adversely affecting their food
supply and possibly limiting the population numbers and distribution of the species. Although
control programs have been undertaken, these shrubs are still spreading across the Kafue flats,
raising concerns about further impact to lechwe habitat availability (Shanungu, 2013).
Disease and nutritional stress
Several diseases in lechwe have been reported (Stafford 1991, Siamudaala et al, 2003, Munyeme
et at, 2010) with bovine tuberculosis being the main disease affecting the Kafue Lechwe
population and potentially limiting the population growth rate (Stafford, 1991). Recent
investigations on the Kafue Flats have not revealed the extent to which bovine T.B affects the
population. It was reported that close to 20% of the Kafue Lechwe population was killed by
bovine T.B each year in the early 1970s (Gallagher et al 1972), although overall population
numbers were much higher than at present. Massive lechwe die-offs have been observed in
recent years, the worst being in 2008 due to dire nutritional stress and susceptibility to diseases
(Shanungu, 2008). More studies need to be undertaken to determine what proportions of the total
mortality of lechwe can be accounted for from disease and die-offs due to nutritional stress.
Illegal off-take – Poaching
A study by Kapungwe (1993) showed that poaching was the major factor responsible for the
decline of the Kafue Lechwe population. The proximity of human settlements to large herds of
Kafue Lechwe makes the lechwe vulnerable to poaching. Further work is needed to ascertain the
vulnerability of Kafue Lechwe population in relation to the close proximity to human
settlements, cattle posts and fishing villages (see Figure 12), and determine the current poaching
levels in this area. Anecdotal reports suggest that poaching here has become sophisticated with
the use of motor bikes and oxcarts and thus often goes undetected. In instances where poachers
have been apprehended, some have been found with more than 15 carcasses of Kafue Lechwe.
Based on our latest survey results, we estimate a net loss of 1,517 Kafue Lechwe per annum in
34 | P a g e
recent years. Although poaching likely does not account for all the Kafue Lechwe mortality, it is
undoubtedly a significant contributor to its annual net loss.
Figure 12. Distribution of Kafue Lechwe in relation to human settlements, fishing villages and
cattle posts on the Kafue Flats during the April 2015 survey.
Increased human presence on the Kafue flats not only increases the likelihood of illegal hunting
of lechwe to occur and go undetected but also results in the encroachment of the their preferred
habitat. The increase of people on the flats has also resulted in frequent and destructive fires that
not only impact on the lechwe but also on nesting and breeding sites for Wattled Crane and other
waterbirds.
Competition with cattle
In this present study, a total of 92,426 cattle were estimated in the survey areas, and as many as
250,000 cattle may occur across the entire Kafue Flats. The increasing number of cattle may
35 | P a g e
present a direct competition for food resources and thus limit the food supply for the lechwe. In
addition, the spatial distribution of Kafue Lechwe could be limited by the presence of cattle
(Figure 15) due to presence of humans that accompany the cattle onto the grazing areas.
Although this aspect needs further investigation, cattle increase could have a negative effect on
the Kafue Lechwe population.
Figure 12. Kafue Lechwe and cattle distribution on the Kafue Flats based on the April 2015
survey.
Large hunting quotas
Despite a declining population trend of lechwe, high hunting quotas have been issued each year.
An analysis of the hunting quotas utilized from 2006 to 2012, indicates an average of 598 Kafue
Lechwe hunted per annum on quota (Table 5). This number is almost 40% of the estimated net
loss of 1517 of Kafue Lechwe per year. Given that the lechwe are in decline, this number could
36 | P a g e
be unsustainable and thus hunting quotas require revision to take into account the population
decline of the lechwe.
Kafue Flats - North and South Bank GMA Hunting Analysis - 2006 – 2012
Year
Resident
Non resident
Total Nr. Hunted
2006
580
31
611
2007
484
61
545
2008
605
52
657
2009
879
29
908
2010
217
28
245
2011
644
49
693
2012
482
44
526
TOTAL
3891
312
4185
Table 5. Hunting quota utilization on the Kafue Flats GMA – 2006 to 2012.
Future analysis of the population dynamics of the lechwe is needed. For example, studies needed
to be undertaken in order to ascertain the current lechwe recruitment.
4.2
Population trends and threats to Wattled Cranes on the Kafue Flats
The current survey results places the Kafue Flats as the most important wetland for Wattled
Cranes, home to more than 25% of the estimate 8000 Wattled Cranes in Africa (Beilfuss et al.
2007).
Combined with the Liuwa Plain (with an estimated 1750 Wattled Cranes) and
Bangweulu Swamps (estimated 1200 individuals), Zambia is the most important place in the
world for Wattled Crane conservation.
The population of Wattled Cranes on the Kafue Flats has fluctuated widely since surveys were
first undertaken in the 1970s.
Wattled Crane estimates exceeded 3000 during the 1970s,
decreased to fewer than 2000 in the 1990s, then dropped again to around 1000 in the early 2000s,
until our present survey estimate placed the population back at close to 3000. Our latest survey
certainly seems encouraging. However, it is unclear whether this latest survey reflects a big
recovery of the species in the past decade, or whether the limitations of the statistical sample
survey methodology when applied to species such as Wattled Cranes that form large flocks
might result in significant over or under counting depending on whether or not those large flocks
occur within the survey strata. Another possibility is that numbers of Wattled Cranes are
increasing on the Kafue Flats due to loss of habitat elsewhere in the region. Regardless, Wattled
37 | P a g e
Cranes, as with the Kafue Lechwe, face serious conservation challenges that must be addressed
to protect the species for the long-term. Challenges include the following:
a) Human disturbance
The presence of numerous fishing camps in the GMAs bordering the Lochinvar NP and
Blue Lagoon NP pose a threat to the nesting and roosting sites for cranes. In the dry
season, these areas are prone to fire and this could have impacts on the food availability
for cranes. Furthermore, fires could potentially kill flightless chicks.
b) Illegal egg collection
Most of the nest sites for Wattled Crane occur near large human settlement areas
especially near fishing camps. It is highly likely that the fisher folks collect eggs from
these nests.
c) Encroachment of shrubs.
The encroachment of shrubs on the floodplain grasslands of the Kafue Flats is degrading
key habitats for Wattled Cranes, as well as Endangered Grey Crowned Cranes and other
waterbirds. Additionally, the spread of Mimosa pigra is likely to impact negatively on the
nesting sites for Wattled Crane, especially in the Lochinvar NP where it is has already
spread to nesting areas. In Blue Lagoon NP, the levels of infestation are not yet as severe
but require urgent attention to prevent further expansion.
4.3
Management Recommendations
More surveys are needed on the Kafue Flats on a regular basis. This will ensure up to date
information that will be useful for management decision of the flats. To address some of the
challenges facing the Kafue Flats, management recommendations are given below for urgent
consideration:
38 | P a g e
Support to Kafue Flats Area Management Unit
There is a strong need to increase support to the Kafue Flats Area Management Unit to
effectively deal with the high levels of poaching on both the south and north banks of the Kafue
River. To deal with the high levels of poaching, more resource protection needs to be recruited
and deployed on the Flats to enhance anti-poaching activities and curb illegal activities. In
addition, there is need to improve the levels of equipment such as boats, quadbikes and vehicles
that will enable timely response to poaching and illegal activities in this area. This will reduce
the levels of poaching, illegal egg harvesting of birds and thus safeguard the population of
wildlife on the flats.
Mimosa pigra management and habitat restoration
Mimosa pigra presents a large threat to the habitat on the Kafue flats. Following up on previous
projects by the UNEP/GEF funded “Removing Barriers to Invasive Species Management in
Africa” project is highly recommended. The project was implemented at Lochinvar from 2007 to
2010 and a number of recommend control interventions were recommended (Shanungu, 2009).
Biocontrol is an additional control measure that has not been implemented yet but could have a
big positive impact at Lochinvar and Blue Lagoon NP, especially if integrated with other control
measures such as physical and chemical control as funds become available.
Water management
Some of the underlying causes to changes on the Kafue Flats has been water management and
dam operations. It is a worthwhile venture to support the works by World Wide for Nature
(WWF-Zambia)’s efforts to advocate for integrated flows of the Kafue River.
Increase tourism potential of the park.
The number of tourists visiting the two national parks on the Kafue flats have declined over the
decades. Given that the tourism in the two national parks has declined, this has prompted
contradictory uses of the park such as allowing access for fish traders to enter and trade fish and
other commodities within the Lochinvar and the Blue Lagoon NPs.
39 | P a g e
It is postulated that national parks that have a high tourist visitor rate receive better protection. It
is therefore recommended that the tourism in the two national parks be revamped. Lochinvar and
Blue Lagoon still have large potential for tourism development due to their proximity to Lusaka
and other places. Developing the tourism in these parks will allow for better management of the
resources therein. Another aspect for consideration is the increasing of the species spectrum of
the parks such as translocation of large herbivores that used to occur there but are now locally
extinct such as: Sable, Eland, Warthog, Puku, Waterbuck and many others. Consideration should
also be given to increasing the Wildebeest population which is small and declining. Not only
would these measures increase the tourism potential of the parks, it will reduce the rate of
encroachment of shrub species.
Limit or suspend hunting for the Kafue Lechwe
The current average of 598 lechwe hunted every year is high and probably unsustainable and
there is a need to suspend or limit the numbers of lechwe hunted every year given that the
population of lechwe is in decline.
Extend park boundaries to encompass the critical habitat for lechwe and waterbirds:
The park boundaries for Lochinvar and Blue Lagoon NPs capture a very small proportion of the
range for waterbirds and lechwe. As is seen on the maps presented in this report, the area
between the Lochinvar and Blue Lagoon encompassed by stratum 3 hold the critical habitat for
the waterbirds and the lechwe. This area is characterized by vast floodplains that are still
unoccupied with invasive plants and encroaching shrubs. Concomitantly, this area is also
occupied by fishing villages and cattle posts. However, it is recommended that ZAWA
management seeks to increase the protection status of this critical habitat for lechwe and
waterbirds by extending the park boundaries of the two parks so that they join and become one
national park to be aptly named the “Kafue Flats National Park” as shown in Figure 12. Joining
the two national parks will ensure better protection of the critical habitat and limit the growing
population of fishing villages and cattle.
40 | P a g e
Figure 13. Proposed boundary extensions of Blue Lagoon and Lochinvar NPs to encompass
critical habitat for lechwe and waterbirds and create a new National Park named “Kafue Flats
National Park”.
Species Conservation Strategy and Action Plan for Kafue Lechwe
The Kafue Lechwe is an endemic mammal species to Zambia and is under critical threats from
various factors. The population has been declining for over three decades now and this year’s
counts are the lowest ever recorded. There is thus, a need to have a clear management
intervention and focus specifically aimed at conserving the Kafue Lechwe and its habitat. This
measure is supported by the Species Survival Commission (SSC) of International Union for the
Conservation of Nature (IUCN). The development of the species conservation strategy within the
framework of the IUCN would provide for the following:
41 | P a g e
• To provide a baseline record against which to measure change;
• To expand on the IUCN Red List of Threatened Species;
• To provide scientifically-based recommendations for those who can promote and
support species conservation action for the Kafue Lechwe;
• To provide a common framework and focus for a wide range of players within the
Kafue Flats wetlands;
• To provide a convenient and accessible conservation resource;
• To establish priorities for the Kafue Lechwe conservation; and
• To aid fundraising.
Possible listing of the Kafue Flats Wetlands under the Ramsar Montreaux Record
The Montreux Record (MR) is a register of Ramsar Sites where changes in ecological character
have occurred, are occurring, or are likely to occur as a result of technological developments or
other human interference. It was established by Recommendation 4.8 (1990) to identify priority
sites for positive national and international conservation attention. Including the Kafue Flats
Wetlands under the Montreux record will raise international profile of the challenges on the
Kafue Flats and thus assist in rapid response to some of the challenges facing the Kafue Flats.
42 | P a g e
REFERENCES
Beilfuss, D.R., Dodman T. and Urban K.E. (2007). The Status of Cranes in Africa in 2005.
Ostrich 2007, 78(2).
Beilfuss, D.R., Bento, M.C., Haldane, M. and Ribaue, M. (2010). Status and distribution of large
herbivores in the Marromeu Complex of the Zambezi Delta, Mozambique. Technical Report to
World Wide for Nature (WWF) Mozambique.
Bell, R.H.V., Grimsdell, J.J. R., van Lavieren, L.P. and Sayer, J.A. 1978 Census of Kafue Flats
by aerial stratified sampling. E.Afr. Wildl. J., 11:55-74
Blaser, J. W 2013. Impact of woody encroachment on soil-plant-herbivore interactions in the
Kafue Flats floodplain ecosystem. PhD dissertation. Diss. ETH No. 21068. Zurich, Switzerland.
Blaser, J. W., Shanungu, G.K., Edwards, J. P. & Olde Venterink, H. (2014) Woody
encroachment reduces nutrient limitation and promotes soil carbon sequestration. Ecology and
Evolution 2014; 4(8): 1423– 1438 doi: 10.1002/ece3.1024
Chabwela, H. N. W. and W. Mumba. (1998). Case Study: Zambia.Integrating Water
Conservation and Population. Strategies on the Kafue Flats.
Chabwela HN and Haller T (2010). Governance issues, potentials and failures of participatory
collective action in Kafue Flats, Zambia. Int. J. Commons 4(2):621-642.
Douthwaite, R.J. and van Lavieren, L.P. (1977). A description of the Vegetation of Lochinvar
National Park, Zambia. National Council for Scientific Research, Zambia, NCSR/TR 34, 66pp
Gallagher, J., Macadam, I., Sayer, J., Van Lavieren, L.P., 1972. Pulmonary tuberculosis in freeliving lechwe antelope in Zambia. Trop. Anim. Health Prod. 4, 204–213.
Genet, B. S. (2007). Shrub Encroachment into Grassland and its Impact on Kafue Lechwe in
Lochinvar National Park, Zambia. International Institute for Geo-information Science and Earth
Observation, Enschede, The Netherlands.
Chabwela, N.H. and Haller, T. (2010). Governance issues, potentials and failures of participatory
collective action in the Kafue Flats, Zambia. International Journal of the Commons. Vol. 4, 621 –
642.
Howard, G.W. Jeffery, R.H.V. and Grimsdell, J.J.R. 1984 Census and population trends of black
lechwe in Zambia. Afr. J. Ecol. 22: 175-179
Jeffery, R.C.V., Chabwela, H.N., Howard, G. and Dugan, P.J. 1986 Making the wetlands of
Kafue flats and Bangweulu basin. Proceedings of the WWF Zambia Wetlands Project Workshop,
Musungwa Safari Lodge, Kafue National Park.
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Leonard, P., (2005). Important bird areas in Zambia. The Zambia Ornithological Society. MRM
Graphics, Singapore. Pp. 85.
Mumba, M., and J. R. Thompson. (2005). Hydrological and Ecological Impacts of Dams on the
Kafue Flats Floodplain System, Southern Zambia. Physics and Chemistry of the Earth 30:442447 Nairobi: African Wildlife Foundation.
Norton-Griffiths, M. 1978. Counting animals. Techniques in African Wildlife Ecology.
Shanungu G.K and Blaser W.J (2011). Lochinvar National Park: Distribution and population
estimates of Large Mammals and the status of Mimosa pigra invasion. Technical Report.
Department of Research, Zambia Wildlife Authority, Chilanga.
Shanungu, G. K. (2009). Management of the invasive Mimosa pigra L. in Lochinvar National
Park, Zambia. Biodiversity (Ottawa) 10:56-60.
Siamudaala, V.M., Muma, J.B., Munag’andu, H.M., Mulumba, M., 2003. Veterinary challenges
regarding the utilisation of the Kafue Lechwe (Kobus leche kafuensis) in Zambia. In:
Conservation and Development Interventions: At The Wildlife/Wildlife Interface: Implication
for Wildlife, Livestock and Human Health, Durban, South Africa, 14th to 15th August, pp. 75–
80.
Stafford, K.J., 1991. A review of diseases of parasites of the Kafue Lechwe (Kobus leche
kafuensis). J. Wildl. Dis. 27, 661–667.
Thomas, I. J. (2007). Mapping and Modeling of Mimosa pigra Expansion in Lochinvar National
Park, Zambia. International Institute for Geo-information Science and Earth Observation,
Enschede, The Netherlands.
44 | P a g e
APPENDICES
Appendix 1. Sampling statistics for each stratum for the April 2005 Aerial survey of the Kafue Flats
Stratum
Name
Area (km2)
Transect
Transect
spacing (km) orientation
Number
transects
Stratum 1
Stratum 2
Stratum 3
Stratum 4
Stratum 5
Stratum 6
Total
456.68
237.75
2209.81
263.3
137.63
2309.81
5614.98
4
2
2
4
2
4
6
15
31
5
7
21
Overall
North-South
North-South
North-South
North-South
North-South
North-South
Appendix 2. Calibration Data for FSO and RSO
Diilwe Syamuntu - Left Seat
(R2 = 0.94)
Altitude
200
200
200
300
300
300
300
350
350
350
400
400
400
520
500
500
45 | P a g e
Marker
4
4
4
8
8
9
8
13
10
10
13
12
12
15
15
15
Wilfred Moonga - Right Seat
(R2= 0.97)
Altitude
200
200
200
300
300
300
300
350
350
350
400
400
400
520
500
500
Marker
4
4
4
8
8
8
8
10
10
10
12
12
12
15
13
15
of Percent
stratum
sampled
11
20
15
14
21
10
15.17%
of
Appendix 3. Stratum 1 basic information and statistical analysis
Basic information – Stratum 1
Wilfred Moonga [R] – Strip Width
Diilwe Syamuntu (L) – Strip Width
Norminal Strip Width
Stratum area [A]Km²
Number of Transects[n]
t
Sample Area[a]Km²
Possible number of Transects[N]
Nominal Flight Height[300ft]
Sampling Intensity[S.I]
199.8064241
200.2643359
400.0707601
456.68
6
2.570581836
51.33
54
300
0.11
Statistical analysis
Av.Radar
Transects [H]m
Actual Strip Width[W]
Transect
Length
Transect
Area
Wattled
Crane
Sitatunga Reedbuck Cattle
ft
Km
Km
Km² [z]
1
300
0.4006
30.19
12.09
2
299
0.3983
24.06
9.58
3
301
0.4014
24.62
9.88
4
301
0.4007
23.24
9.31
5
296
0.3947
23.64
9.33
6
307
0.4090
2.76
1.13
No. seen
Ʃ(y)
4
7
1
587
Density
Ʃ(y)/a
0.0779
0.1364
0.0195
11.435
Estimate
(Ʃ(y)/a)*A
36
9
5222
Population Variance
SŶ ²
323.77
2E+06
Standard Error[SE]
√(SŶ ²)
17.994
1468.8
95% Confidence Limits
t*SE
46.254
3775.6
Confidence Limits[CL%]
t*(SE/Est)*100
Sample Variance(Sightings)
Sy ²
Sample Variance(area)
Sz ²
Covariance(Sightings and Area)
Szy
46 | P a g e
51
4
4
60
1
203
170
3
63
40
72.298
0.5
4890.2
14.3350663
0
0.0751
0
78.425
Appendix 4. Stratum 2 Basic information and statistical analysis
Basic Information
Wilfred Moonga[R]
Diilwe Syamuntu[L]
Norminal Strip Width
Stratum area [A]Km²
Number of Transects[n]
t
Sample Area[a]Km²
Possible number of Transects[N]
Norminal Flight Hieght[300ft]
Sampling Intensity[S.I]
201.6513495
202.1134895
403.764839
237.75
15
2.144786688
47.58
73
303.3116402
0.20
Statistical analysis
Av.Radar
[H]m
Actual Strip Width[W] Transect Length Transect Area Buffalo
Lechwe
Reedbuck
Spurwinged
Goose
Wattled
Crane
Cattle
ft
Km
Km
Km² [z]
L
R
SWG
W
c
1
295
0.3927
8.42
3.31
2
302
0.4016
7.57
3.04
3
353
0.4692
6.72
3.15
4
299
0.3977
5.83
2.32
1
5
293
0.3899
5.44
2.12
1
6
306
0.4077
2.09
0.85
1
7
297
0.3957
12.08
4.78
8
301
0.4013
11.47
4.60
9
301
0.4003
9.90
3.96
10
302
0.4020
8.32
3.34
1
45
11
294
0.3916
8.05
3.15
3
7
12
301
0.4005
8.01
3.21
1
55
13
304
0.4051
8.52
3.45
25
14
304
0.4047
8.00
3.24
41
15
298
0.3967
7.68
3.05
No. seen
Ʃ(y)
30
42
11
3
2
454
Density
Ʃ(y)/a
0.6306
0.8828
0.2312
0.0631
0.042038
9.542581
Estimate
(Ʃ(y)/a)*A
150
210
55
15
10
2269
Population Variance
SŶ ²
157.95
438433.7
Standard Error[SE]
√(SŶ ²)
12.568
662.1432
26.955
1420.156
49.036
62.59644
0.5536
1444.418
Transects
B
74
2
137
42
47 | P a g e
20
30
3
1
2
30
14
95% Confidence Limits t*SE
Confidence
Limits[CL%]
t*(SE/Est)*100
Sample
Variance(Sightings)
Sy ²
Sample Variance(area) Sz ²
Covariance(Sightings
and Area)
Szy
6
0.90263844
0
0
0.1056
0
0
-0.43713
Appendix 5. Stratum 3 Basic information and statistical analysis
Name of Stratum
Basic Information
Wilfred Moonga[R]
Diilwe Syamuntu[L]
Norminal Strip Width
Stratum area [A]Km²
Number of Transects[n]
t
Sample Area[a]Km²
Possible number of Transects[N]
Norminal Flight Hieght[300ft]
Sampling Intensity[S.I]
Stratum 3
197.1229706
197.5747325
394.6977031
2209.81
31
2.042272456
323.03
176
296.5003293
0.15
Statistical analysis
Transects
Av.Radar
[H]m
Actual Strip Transect
Width[W] Length
Transect
Area
Reedbuck
b
Lechwe
Open
Billed
Stork
Pelican
Sitatunga
Spurwinged
Goose
Wattled
Crane
Crowned
Crane
Yellow
Billed
Cattle
Waterbuck. C Hippo
Kudu
L
cd
el
e
e1
W
GR
gh
C
wb
K
1
3
2
66
ft
Km
Km
Km² [z]
1
297
0.3947
44.38
17.51
2
297
0.3947
44.45
17.54
19
19
3
297
0.3947
44.42
17.53
2
29
13
4
297
0.3947
44.41
17.53
1
63
5
297
0.3947
44.42
17.53
2
6
297
0.3947
44.52
17.57
6
7
297
0.3947
44.46
17.55
265
30
8
297
0.3947
44.44
17.54
304
65
9
297
0.3947
44.36
17.51
328
19
10
297
0.3947
44.51
17.57
250
50
1
11
297
0.3947
39.42
15.56
244
27
12
297
0.3947
40.34
15.92
141
13
297
0.3947
41.41
16.34
202
14
297
0.3947
42.37
16.73
482
48 | P a g e
5
3
2
150
1
5
241
3
22
37
24
78
17
6
5
8
7
5
16
10
84
12
35
3
1
46
2
50
1
9
3
63
2
59
208
28
7
57
12
5
wh
220
7
169
30
7
62
8
8
1
2
2
23
1
48
39
15
297
0.3947
34.53
13.63
157
164
5
146
17
16
297
0.3947
32.75
12.93
131
25
88
30
2
17
288
0.3832
31.16
18
296
0.3945
29.57
11.94
343
52
14
55
13
50
11.67
408
20
88
21
8
19
293
0.3894
20
294
0.3909
27.83
10.84
449
33
13
6
26.91
10.52
228
8
15
6
21
299
0.3983
29.06
11.57
78
26
18
22
23
301
0.4003
28.77
11.52
48
294
0.3914
29.53
11.56
71
8
24
298
0.3960
29.61
11.73
15
3
25
299
0.3975
29.44
11.70
26
301
0.4007
36.44
14.60
27
297
0.3951
34.80
13.75
28
300
0.3994
32.83
13.11
29
293
0.3900
28.40
11.08
30
292
0.3887
27.09
10.53
31
304
0.4047
30.83
12.47
16
8
1
5
1
19
7
30
13
28
8
1
40
15
3
3
116
5
2
5
140
11
1
1
8
1
1
3
30
No. seen
Ʃ(y)
22
4156
852
139
2
1118
402
17
42
1179
1
46
1
Density
Ʃ(y)/a
0.0681
12.866
2.6375
0.4303
0.006
3.46097
1.244463
0.052627
0.130019
3.649807
0.003
0.142401
0.003
Estimate
(Ʃ(y)/a)*A
150
28431
5828
951
14
7648
2750
116
287
8065
7
315
7
Population Variance
SŶ ²
50059
2E+07
907202
471370
2183849
1284234
8419.17
125424.3
3199844
425306.1
Standard Error[SE]
√(SŶ ²)
223.74
4610.8
952.47
686.56
1477.785
1133.241
91.75603
354.1529
1788.811
652.1549
456.93
9416.6
1945.2
1402.2
3018.04
2314.386
187.3908
723.2767
3653.239
1331.878
303.61
33.121
33.375
147.46
39.46137
84.15865
161.1345
251.7354
45.29532
423.2487
60.333
23978
1091.3
553.56
2752.4
1579.218
10.33333
154.3
4312.497
512
-1.763
-20.035
8.5962
-18.3
28.68493
14.46506
1.526844
9.883755
73.79224
95% Confidence Limits t*SE
Confidence
Limits[CL%]
t*(SE/Est)*100
Sample
Variance(Sightings)
Sy ²
Sample Variance(area) Sz ²
Covariance(Sightings
and Area)
Szy
49 | P a g e
7.53417156
0
0
-9.78146
0
Appendix 6. Stratum 4 Basic information and statistical analysis
Name of Stratum
Basic Information
Stratum 4
Wilfred Moonga[R]
202.5205561
Diilwe Syamuntu[L]
202.9846881
Norminal Strip Width
405.5052442
Stratum area [A]Km²
264.3
Number of Transects[n]
5
t
2.776445105
Sample Area[a]Km²
36.83
Possible number of Transects[N]
50
Norminal Flight Hieght[300ft]
304.6190476
Sampling Intensity[S.I]
0.14
Statistical analysis
Transects
Av.Radar
[H]m
Actual Strip Width[W] Transect Length
Transect Area Oribi
Open
Billed
Stork
Spurwinged
Goose
Wattled
Crane
Cattle
A
SWG
W
C
3
241
ft
Km
Km
Km² [z]
O
1
399
0.5326
12.19
6.49
2
2
406
0.5414
14.64
7.93
4
1
3
50
3
408
0.5444
16.57
9.02
3
3
2
24
4
399
0.5326
15.61
8.31
9
1
12
5
415
0.5529
9.18
5.08
6
190
No. seen
Ʃ(y)
2
16
11
8
517
Density
Ʃ(y)/a
0.0543
0.4344
0.2987
0.2172
14.03813
Estimate
(Ʃ(y)/a)*A
14
115
79
57
3710
Population Variance
SŶ ²
5096.3
3458.7
304.23
7022759
71.388
58.811
17.442
2650.049
198.21
163.29
48.427
7357.715
172.62
206.84
84.35
198.3063
10.333
5.5833
0.3333
10985.8
-0.4728 -3.022
-0.503
-141.64
Standard Error[SE]
√(SŶ ²)
95%
Confidence
Limits
t*SE
Confidence
Limits[CL%]
t*(SE/Est)*100
Sample
Variance(Sightings)
Sy ²
Sample Variance(area) Sz ²
Covariance(Sightings
and Area)
Szy
50 | P a g e
2.49042303
0
Appendix 7. Stratum 5 Basic information and statistical analysis
Name of Stratum
Stratum 5
Basic Information
Wilfred Moonga[R]
Diilwe Syamuntu[L]
Norminal Strip Width
Stratum area [A]Km²
Number of Transects[n]
t
Sample Area[a]Km²
Possible number of Transects[N]
Norminal Flight Hieght[300ft]
Sampling Intensity[S.I]
200.1209444
199.6633605
399.7843049
137.63
7
2.446911851
28.93
36
300.3214286
0.21
Statistical Analysis
Av.Radar
Transects [H]m
Actual Strip Width[W] Transect Length Transect Area Buffalo
B
Wildebeest
Wattled
Crane
Cattle
E
W
c
5
173
ft
Km
Km
Km² [z]
1
295
0.3934
10.12
3.98
2
302
0.4023
10.09
4.06
49
3
353
0.4701
10.15
4.77
5
4
299
0.3984
10.10
4.02
5
293
0.3905
10.13
3.96
6
306
0.4084
10.10
4.12
49
7
297
0.3964
10.13
4.02
60
No. seen
Ʃ(y)
157
15
7
336
Density
Ʃ(y)/a
5.4265
0.5185
0.2419
11.613
Estimate
(Ʃ(y)/a)*A
747
71
33
1598
Population Variance
SŶ ²
663.86
623043
Standard Error[SE]
√(SŶ ²)
25.765
789.33
63.046
1931.4
189.33
120.84
4.5
3944.2
-0.037
-12.47
15
95% Confidence Limits t*SE
Confidence
Limits[CL%]
t*(SE/Est)*100
Sample
Variance(Sightings)
Sy ²
Sample Variance(area) Sz ²
Covariance(Sightings
and Area)
Szy
51 | P a g e
2
157
0.08217645
0
0
Appendix 8. Stratum 6 Basic information and statistical analysis
Basic Information
200.100565
Wilfred Moonga[R]
200.5593438
Diilwe Syamuntu[L]
400.6599089
Norminal Strip Width
2309.81
Stratum area [A]Km²
21
Number of Transects[n]
2.085963447
t
228.99
Sample Area[a]Km²
Possible number of Transects[N]
Norminal Flight Hieght[300ft]
159
296.5003293
0.10
Sampling Intensity[S.I]
Statistical analysis
Transects
Av.Radar
[H]m
Actual Strip Width[W] Transect Length Transect Area Reedbuck
Wooly
Knecked
Stork
Spurwinged
Goose
Wattled
Crane
Yellow
Billed
Cattle
Ground
Hornbill
Secretary
Bird
L
cd
el
e1
W
gh
C
wb
wh
ft
Km
Km
Km² [z]
1
285
0.3801
4.007927195
1.52328176
57
2
296
0.3944
12.30466106
4.85241032
178
3
300
0.4001
4.590553699
1.83654631
4
301
0.4012
50.90643945
20.4227506
5
300
0.3998
56.74813855
22.6852525
6
299
0.3991
69.3603591
27.679679
7
300
0.4001
81.74691914
32.7045521
8
308
0.4101
79.09789888
32.4358754
9
305
0.4071
76.6199593
31.1926782
10
303
0.4034
17.39608802
7.01766338
11
305
0.4067
13.54112065
5.50769654
12
294
0.3921
11.89000208
4.66170533
13
298
0.3971
10.53394621
4.18310665
52 | P a g e
b
Lechwe
Open
Billed
Stork
651
1
2
542
676
5
711
1
2
61
950
101
792
200
391
17
12
4
1
2
921
6
534
313
3
2
14
303
0.4034
12.45835344
5.02575812
15
299
0.3991
13.60251812
5.42901269
137
16
289
0.3858
13.17667828
5.08333213
59
17
305
0.4067
12.60920661
5.12865112
180
18
298
0.3976
11.7128073
4.65666452
58
19
315
0.4201
8.420339354
3.53716814
130
20
311
0.4151
5.342514071
2.21753555
21
308
0.4101
2.955954504
1.21215574
No. seen
Ʃ(y)
2
7
6
12
380
8
1
7306
3
2
Density
Ʃ(y)/a
0.0087
0.0306
0.0262
0.0524
1.659436
0.034935
0.004367
31.90484
0.013101
0.008734
Estimate
(Ʃ(y)/a)*A
20
71
61
121
3833
81
10
73694
30
20
Population Variance
SŶ ²
10.324
3459.6
2714.1
6606567
8587.484
56568481
Standard Error[SE]
√(SŶ ²)
3.213
58.819
52.097
2570.324
92.66868
7521.202
6.7023
122.69
108.67
5361.603
193.3035
15688.95
33.223
173.77
179.56
139.8807
239.5502
21.28929
0
4.5
2
6333
8
105278.2
0
21.418
-9.714
110.2042
-0.88829
0
0
95% Confidence Limits t*SE
Confidence
Limits[CL%]
t*(SE/Est)*100
Sample
Variance(Sightings)
Sy ²
Sample Variance(area) Sz ²
Covariance(Sightings
and Area)
Szy
53 | P a g e
1
6
20
129.549638
0
0
2867.907
Appendix 9. Transect Data
LAT
-15.49642654
-15.49642654
LONG
28.1701073
28.1701073
Stratum
Stratum 1
Stratum 1
Transect
1
2
Length
30.19174848
24.05559263
-15.49642654
28.1701073
Stratum 1
3
24.62313645
-15.49642654
28.1701073
Stratum 1
4
23.2381943
-15.49642654
28.1701073
Stratum 1
5
23.64085941
-15.49642654
28.1701073
Stratum 1
6
2.761692632
-15.49642654
28.1701073
Stratum 2
16
6.205615084
-15.49642654
28.1701073
Stratum 2
14
7.991983151
-15.49642654
28.1701073
Stratum 2
12
8.013822134
-15.49642654
28.1701073
Stratum 2
9
9.903749249
-15.49642654
28.1701073
Stratum 2
7
12.08147715
-15.49642654
28.1701073
Stratum 2
6
2.093285924
-15.49642654
28.1701073
Stratum 2
2
7.578683438
-15.49642654
28.1701073
Stratum 2
3
6.719122514
-15.49642654
28.1701073
Stratum 2
4
5.826438965
-15.49642654
28.1701073
Stratum 2
5
5.443545769
-15.49642654
28.1701073
Stratum 2
8
11.46971885
-15.49642654
28.1701073
Stratum 2
10
8.316765893
-15.49642654
28.1701073
Stratum 2
11
8.054429124
-15.49642654
28.1701073
Stratum 2
13
8.520209387
-15.49642654
28.1701073
Stratum 2
15
7.679518447
-15.49642654
28.1701073
Stratum 2
1
8.428130735
-15.49675017
28.17029505
Stratum 3
1
44.37535124
-15.49675017
28.17029505
Stratum 3
2
44.45105624
-15.49675017
28.17029505
Stratum 3
3
44.41986552
-15.49675017
28.17029505
Stratum 3
4
44.4063504
-15.49675017
28.17029505
Stratum 3
5
44.41881637
-15.49675017
28.17029505
Stratum 3
6
44.5234749
-15.49675017
28.17029505
Stratum 3
7
44.46445563
-15.49675017
28.17029505
Stratum 3
8
44.43699221
-15.49675017
28.17029505
Stratum 3
9
44.35675845
-15.49675017
28.17029505
Stratum 3
10
44.5086594
-15.4967552
28.17023051
Stratum 3
11
39.41715177
-15.4967552
28.17023051
Stratum 3
12
40.34465434
-15.4967552
28.17023051
Stratum 3
13
41.40850688
-15.4967552
28.17023051
Stratum 3
14
42.37453149
-15.4967552
28.17023051
Stratum 3
15
34.52875172
-15.4967552
28.17023051
Stratum 3
16
32.74898538
-15.49666601
28.17029891
Stratum 3
17
31.16339193
-15.49666601
28.17029891
Stratum 3
18
29.57026194
-15.49666601
28.17029891
Stratum 3
19
27.83368432
54 | P a g e
-15.49666601
28.17029891
Stratum 3
20
26.90741343
-15.49666601
28.17029891
Stratum 3
21
29.05813356
-15.49666601
28.17029891
Stratum 3
22
28.77028413
-15.49666601
28.17029891
Stratum 3
23
29.52558112
-15.49666601
28.17029891
Stratum 3
24
29.61307515
-15.49666601
28.17029891
Stratum 3
25
29.43912536
-15.49666601
28.17029891
Stratum 3
26
36.44297774
-15.49666601
28.17029891
Stratum 3
27
34.79891886
-15.49666601
28.17029891
Stratum 3
28
32.83274564
-15.49666601
28.17029891
Stratum 3
29
28.4018668
-15.49666601
28.17029891
Stratum 3
30
27.0902795
-15.49666601
28.17029891
Stratum 3
31
30.82667499
0
0
Stratum 4
1
12.19142049
0
0
Stratum 4
2
14.6432956
0
0
Stratum 4
3
16.57111366
0
0
Stratum 4
4
15.61323581
0
0
Stratum 4
5
9.177159015
0
0
Stratum 5
1
10.120064
0
0
Stratum 5
2
10.08557973
0
0
Stratum 5
3
10.15393599
0
0
Stratum 5
4
10.1035364
0
0
Stratum 5
5
10.12590854
0
0
Stratum 5
6
10.09885578
0
0
Stratum 5
7
10.13373023
0
0
Stratum 6
6
69.3603591
0
0
Stratum 6
3
4.590553699
0
0
Stratum 6
7
81.74691914
0
0
Stratum 6
1
4.007927195
0
0
Stratum 6
2
12.30466106
0
0
Stratum 6
4
50.90643945
0
0
Stratum 6
5
56.74813855
0
0
Stratum 6
8
79.09789888
-15.4780493
27.80789165
Stratum 6
14
12.45835344
-15.4780493
27.80789165
Stratum 6
21
2.955954504
-15.4780493
27.80789165
Stratum 6
20
5.342514071
-15.4780493
27.80789165
Stratum 6
19
8.420339354
-15.4780493
27.80789165
Stratum 6
18
11.7128073
-15.4780493
27.80789165
Stratum 6
17
12.60920661
-15.4780493
27.80789165
Stratum 6
16
13.17667828
-15.4780493
27.80789165
Stratum 6
15
13.60251812
-15.4780493
27.80789165
Stratum 6
10
17.39608802
-15.4780493
27.80789165
Stratum 6
11
13.54112065
55 | P a g e
-15.4780493
27.80789165
Stratum 6
12
11.89000208
-15.4780493
27.80789165
Stratum 6
13
10.53394621
56 | P a g e