Increased Expenditure Arising from the
Introduction of Additional Gaming Machines to
a Local Community:
Review of the ‘Density Hypothesis’
Judith Stubbs BSW UNSW PhD RMIT
John Storer BE (Civil) UNSW
Judith Stubbs & Associates
2 C McCauley St
Thirroul NSW 2515
[email protected]
23 August 2005
Judith Stubbs & Associates
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Review of Density Hypothesis
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<BLANK> uses data for per capita expenditure and EGM density in NSW, Blacktown LGA,
Leichhardt LGA, Marrickville LGA, Willoughby LGA, Parramatta LGA and Rockdale LGA for the
years 1994 to 2003.
2
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Review of Density Hypothesis
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That is, using the NSW totals (or averages) for per capita expenditure and gaming machine density.
This should not be confused with using per capita expenditure and gaming machine density data for
every available area within NSW.
Judith Stubbs & Associates
13
Review of Density Hypothesis
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Review of Density Hypothesis
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Review of Density Hypothesis
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Judith Stubbs & Associates
16
Review of Density Hypothesis
N!
NSW (SIA pp. 20-1, All GMs)
Year
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
GMs per Adult Per Capita Expenditure ($2001)
0.016393443
527
0.016949153
554
0.018867925
570
0.018518519
600
0.02
713
0.022222222
812
0.021276596
867
0.020833333
859
0.021276596
861
0.020408163
860
City of Blacktown (<BLANK> pp. 25-6, All
GMs)
Year
GMs per Adult Per Capita Expenditure ($2001)
1994
0.01010101
500
1995 0.010638298
534
1996 0.010989011
554
1997 0.013157895
586
1998
0.01369863
697
1999 0.014705882
775
2000
0.015625
858
2001 0.015873016
859
2002 0.015151515
837
2003 0.014925373
840
Leichhardt LGA (<BLANK> pp. 29-31, All
GMs)
Year
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
GMs per Adult Per Capita Expenditure ($2001)
0.013333333
353
0.014925373
316
0.015625
312
0.018181818
376
0.022727273
628
0.023255814
847
0.023809524
959
0.020408163
894
0.022222222
839
0.018867925
835
Judith Stubbs & Associates
17
Review of Density Hypothesis
Marrickville LGA (<BLANK> pp. 29-31, All
GMs)
Year
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
GMs per Adult Per Capita Expenditure ($2001)
0.015625
673
0.01754386
703
0.01754386
672
0.020833333
689
0.023255814
858
0.024390244
982
0.025
1123
0.025
1097
0.024390244
1048
0.022727273
1009
Willoughby LGA (<BLANK> pp. 29-31, All
GMs)
Year
GMs per Adult Per Capita Expenditure ($2001)
1994 0.006756757
264
1995 0.007142857
283
1996
0.01010101
284
1997 0.011494253
382
1998 0.012345679
531
1999 0.011627907
595
2000 0.011627907
580
2001 0.011111111
623
2002 0.010526316
617
2003 0.010869565
624
Parramatta LGA (<BLANK> pp. 29-31, All
GMs)
Year
GMs per Adult Per Capita Expenditure ($2001)
1994 0.011494253
525
1995 0.011904762
572
1996 0.012820513
552
1997 0.016129032
737
1998 0.017857143
944
1999 0.019230769
1138
2000 0.020408163
1242
2001 0.019607843
1265
2002 0.019607843
1254
2003 0.019607843
1268
Judith Stubbs & Associates
18
Review of Density Hypothesis
Rockdale LGA (<BLANK> pp. 29-31, All GMs)
Year
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
GMs per Adult Per Capita Expenditure ($2001)
0.017241379
639
0.018867925
691
0.018867925
707
0.021276596
746
0.021276596
868
0.020833333
940
0.020408163
994
0.020408163
947
0.020408163
923
0.020408163
924
ALL <BLANK> DATA POINTS (<BLANK> pp.
20-31, All GMs)
Area
NSW
Blacktown
Leichhardt
Year
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
GMs per Adult Per Capita Expenditure ($2001)
0.016393443
527
0.016949153
554
0.018867925
570
0.018518519
600
0.02
713
0.022222222
812
0.021276596
867
0.020833333
859
0.021276596
861
0.020408163
860
0.01010101
500
0.010638298
534
0.010989011
554
0.013157895
586
0.01369863
697
0.014705882
775
0.015625
858
0.015873016
859
0.015151515
837
0.014925373
840
0.013333333
353
0.014925373
316
0.015625
312
0.018181818
376
0.022727273
628
0.023255814
847
0.023809524
959
0.020408163
894
0.022222222
839
Judith Stubbs & Associates
19
Review of Density Hypothesis
ALL <BLANK> DATA POINTS (<BLANK> pp.
20-31, All GMs)
Area
Marrickville
Willoughby
Parramatta
Rockdale
Year
2003
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
GMs per Adult Per Capita Expenditure ($2001)
0.018867925
835
0.015625
673
0.01754386
703
0.01754386
672
0.020833333
689
0.023255814
858
0.024390244
982
0.025
1123
0.025
1097
0.024390244
1048
0.022727273
1009
0.006756757
264
0.007142857
283
0.01010101
284
0.011494253
382
0.012345679
531
0.011627907
595
0.011627907
580
0.011111111
623
0.010526316
617
0.010869565
624
0.011494253
525
0.011904762
572
0.012820513
552
0.016129032
737
0.017857143
944
0.019230769
1138
0.020408163
1242
0.019607843
1265
0.019607843
1254
0.019607843
1268
0.017241379
639
0.018867925
691
0.018867925
707
0.021276596
746
0.021276596
868
0.020833333
940
0.020408163
994
0.020408163
947
0.020408163
923
0.020408163
924
Judith Stubbs & Associates
20
Review of Density Hypothesis
N'+8
NSW (All GMs) density by per capita expenditure
1000
900
y = 68144x - 618.4
2
R = 0.8234
800
700
600
Series1
500
Linear (Series1)
400
300
200
100
0
0
0.005
0.01
0.015
0.02
0.025
Blacktown (All GMs) density by per capita expenditure
1000
900
y = 65544x - 179.96
2
R = 0.9331
800
700
600
Series1
500
Linear (Series1)
400
300
200
100
0
0
0.002
0.004
Judith Stubbs & Associates
0.006
0.008
0.01
21
0.012
0.014
0.016
0.018
Review of Density Hypothesis
Leichhardt LGA (All GMs) density by per capita expenditure
1200
1000
y = 59976x - 523.77
R2 = 0.7023
800
Series1
600
Linear (Series1)
400
200
0
0
0.005
0.01
0.015
0.02
0.025
Marrickville LGA (All GMs) density by per capita expenditure
1200
1000
y = 47991x - 152.69
R2 = 0.8167
800
Series1
600
Linear (Series1)
400
200
0
0
0.005
Judith Stubbs & Associates
0.01
0.015
22
0.02
0.025
0.03
Review of Density Hypothesis
Willoughby LGA (All GMs) density by per capita expenditure
700
600
y = 59001x - 132.97
R2 = 0.5192
500
400
Series1
Linear (Series1)
300
200
100
0
0
0.002
0.004
0.006
0.008
0.01
0.012
0.014
Parram atta LGA (All GMs) density by per capita expenditure
1400
1200
y = 88953x - 550.65
R2 = 0.9425
1000
800
Series1
Linear (Series1)
600
400
200
0
0
0.005
Judith Stubbs & Associates
0.01
0.015
23
0.02
0.025
Review of Density Hypothesis
Rockdale LGA (All GMs) density by per capita expenditure
1200
1000
y = 70808x - 578.24
R2 = 0.4979
800
Series1
600
Linear (Series1)
400
200
0
0
0.005
0.01
0.015
0.02
0.025
All DC Areas (NSW, Blacktow n, Leichhardt, Marrickville, Willoughby,
Parram atta, Rockdale) density by per capita expenditure
1400
1200
y = 38335x + 80.193
R2 = 0.5095
1000
800
Series1
Linear (Series1)
600
400
200
0
0
0.005
Judith Stubbs & Associates
0.01
0.015
24
0.02
0.025
0.03
Review of Density Hypothesis
Judith Stubbs & Associates
25
Review of Density Hypothesis